Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 17th)

The tournament in Rome will be continuing on Wednesday and the general goings on in my personal life does mean it has been very difficult to write out any analysis for the Tennis Picks I have been making this week.

I think that is going to be the case throughout the remainder of the only really big tournament scheduled before the French Open begins later this month, but suffice to say that I am putting in the same type of depth of research as I usually do for these selections.

Wednesday was a better day after a miserable Tuesday, but there is still work to do to turn this week in my favour. On Thursday the selections from the Second Round matches that have yet to be completed are mainly coming from the WTA Tour matches rather than the ATP Masters matches that are set to be played.

Yesterday it was the poor returns from the Women's matches that prevented a much stronger day, but a bit of bad luck went against those selections and I am looking for much better on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Darya Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Martic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Johanna Konta @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sofia Kenin + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 16th)

The first couple of days of this week have remained very busy and that means I have not been able to put down my thoughts for the matches at the Rome Masters as I would have liked.

As we get further into the week I will have an update on the numbers and I am hoping for fuller threads going forward as the big names join the clay court tournaments for the first time with the French Open fast approaching.

Tuesday was a miserable day for the Tennis Picks compared with Monday so I do expect a lot better from myself in the coming days.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units) 

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 14th)

I have to say the last couple of weeks have been treacherous as far as the Tennis Picks have gone and at times I do feel like I am being teased by the Gods.

Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer both got to match points in their matches on Tuesday and converting those points would have meant a cover of the handicap mark that was set out. Both were unable to do that and the fine margins of tennis seem to be going against me at the moment which is frustrating. Added to that was Petra Kvitova taking a break lead in the final set, one she just had to win to cover the mark, yet lost the last four games to fail to do that too.

I would much rather say that players have been unable to get into a position to cover and thus make the adjustments for the Picks, but when they get as close to covering without doing it I do think it is much more difficult to take. The season has been a good one so clearly the right plays have been made more often than not, but it has been a difficult month since Wimbledon and I was looking for better momentum to take into the US Open.


On Wednesday we move deeper into the Cincinnati Masters with the remainder of the Second Round to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played. There are a few matches that have fit into the criteria which has paid off very well this season, but I am hoping I am going to have slightly better luck than I have been experiencing of late.

In a sport where very little can decide the outcome of full matches, I have to accept I was always going to have a difficult run at some point, but I have managed to limit those moments so far over the course of 2019. Last week was the first time I had suffered back to back negative returning weeks, but I don't want that trend to move through to a third week in a row so this could be an important day to try and right a ship that has turned in a wrong direction of late.


Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Elise Mertens: Both of these players reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati last season, but I have to give Elina Svitolina the edge to see off Elise Mertens and move a step closer to that Round in 2019.

This has been a difficult season for Svitolina in terms of where her expectations would have been coming into 2019. She won the WTA Finals in Singapore at the end of 2018 and the Ukrainian has been in and around the top of the women's game for a number of years without having the kind of impact at a Grand Slam she would have liked.

You would have expected the confidence to be flowing after winning the WTA Finals, but instead Svitolina has taken a backwards step although she is still a top 10 player. The numbers on the hard courts compared with the last two seasons are indicative of the lack of success Svitolina has had compared to those years, although there are signs she is returning to her best form with a Quarter Final run in San Jose and Toronto behind her.

There has been a decline across her numbers, but Elina Svitolina has shown some life in her return of serve over the last month which should give her every chance of winning a match against an opponent she has beaten in two of their three previous matches. And she is facing Elise Mertens who has been very inconsistent on the hard courts in 2019.

Last year at the Australian Open Elise Mertens crushed Elina Svitolina, but she hasn't really kicked on as she would have liked on the hard courts over the last eighteen months. A strong win in the First Round will have given Mertens some confidence but the Belgian is just 13-10 on the hard courts this season and has had early losses in San Jose and Toronto.

Like Elina Svitolina, Mertens have seen her service numbers decline behind first and second serve, and her return has actually proven to be not as effective as what Svitolina can produce. With the slightly superior serve, Svitolina is able to come through a couple more difficult moments than Mertens and that could prove to be the key again.

Her record against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2019 is 4-6 and Mertens has seen her numbers take a significant decline in those matches. She is a talented player, but Mertens is someone that can be vulnerable against the very best players on the Tour and I think Elina Svitolina still earns a place amongst them.

Twelve months ago Svitolina beat Mertens in straight sets in Montreal and I think she is going to have too much for her here in Cincinnati too. I do think Elina Svitolina is going to have to improve tremendously to have an impact at the US Open, but she can build confidence here with a good looking win in the Second Round.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 games v Radu Albot: There is no doubt that at almost 30 years old Radu Albot is playing the best tennis of his career and that has seen him reach a peak career Ranking of Number 39 in the World. What that means is that Albot is able to take his place in the Masters events without having to go through the Qualifiers and a strong end to the 2019 season will mean he has every chance of being Seeded when the draw for the Australian Open is made in early January 2020.

All credit has to be given to Albot who tends to play his best tennis on the hard courts and the evidence of his improvement is in the numbers as he has begun to play at a higher level than he is used to. Twelve months ago he didn't play at either of the August Masters events and Albot was also still playing Challenger events at the end of the season, but he is set for a strong finish if he can maintain his form.

The Moldovan had won just 9 matches on the hard courts at the main ATP level in 2017 and 2018 combined, but this year he is 19-9 and won a title in Delray Beach. Radu Albot is vastly improved when it comes to the serve and the return in the main Tour matches and that has let to the strong record that he arrives in Cincinnati with, while his form has shown little sign of dipping having overcome Marin Cilic in the First Round.

It has been a solid few weeks on the hard courts for Albot who reached the Semi Final in Los Cabos and his return figures have been impressive. In the nine matches played on this surface since Wimbledon, Albot has won 40% of points against the opponent's serve and broken in 31% of return games played which makes him a real live underdog in this Second Round match.

I have a lot of respect for the tennis Albot is playing, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a confident hard court player too despite his diminutive size and it certainly makes him a book you shouldn't judge by the cover. The Argentinian was a strong winner in the First Round and I do think he will match up well with Albot and I am expecting to see plenty of drawn out rallies between the players.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman does not have as many main Tour wins as Albot on the hard courts in 2019, but they have similar service numbers with the main difference being that the higher Ranked player has shown the superior serve. His numbers have even been slightly better than Albot's over the last month since Wimbledon came to an end and it was Schwartzman who took the title home when both appeared in Los Cabos.

I do expect to see a few breaks of serve and I would not be surprised if this match goes the full three sets. As I have said, I have to respect the performances Radu Albot has put together in 2019, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is potentially a bad match up for him and I will look for the favourite to cover the mark in this one.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Lucas Pouille: A come from behind win over Joao Sousa will have done Denis Shapovalov plenty of good in the First Round and the fact he was getting stronger and stronger during the match gives him some momentum to take into the Second Round. He is favoured to win this match against Lucas Pouille too, although Shapovalov has to show his confidence is in a better place having had a difficult season for the most part.

To be fair to the young Canadian, Lucas Pouille can't exactly have a spring in his step having been beaten in the First Round in Montreal last week which actually means he had lost six straight hard court matches beginning with the Australian Open Semi Final against Novak Djokovic. The run was snapped in the First Round in Cincinnati, but the Frenchman has always been a pretty average hard court player.

That doesn't mean Pouille has not had some very strong runs in tournaments, but his margin for error is very small thanks to a relatively weak return. Over the last twelve months on the hard courts, Lucas Pouille has won just 34% of return points and broken in 16% of return games which keeps his own serve under immense pressure with a feeling that a single break could cost him a set.

Lucas Pouille does have a decent serve, but he is holding 81% of games played behind that shot over the last twelve months on this surface. He seems to be a player that can struggle when the pressurised points come up like the break points and I do think it will be difficult for him to win this match barring a performance close to the best tennis Pouille can play.

No one will ever suggest Denis Shapovalov is a big time returner, at least not at this stage of his career. However his numbers are slightly better in terms of break percentage and points won against serve percentage than his opponent in this match and the Canadian has added a few points to his service numbers in 2019 compared with 2018.

I do think this is a match that potentially comes down to one or two key points in deciding the outcome and it may literally be who is the more efficient on the break points if both players are going to have very few chances to do that. My feeling is that Denis Shapovalov is the better server of the two and his slightly superior returning numbers should add to his advantage, while the Canadian at least has a few wins on the hard courts in recent months compared with Lucas Pouille who just snapped a six match losing run on the surface.

The Frenchman has had a day of rest between his First Round and this Second Round match, but I won't give that too much of a factor. In my opinion the favourite is worth backing to cover the handicap mark set for this match.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This has been the best year of Roberto Bautista Agut's career and he is on the brink of cracking the top 10 of the World Rankings for the first time. Another decent run on the hard courts last week saw Bautista Agut reach the Quarter Final in Montreal and he will be looking for another that could see him make the move into the top 10 at the end of this week.

He has always been very comfortable on the hard courts and his run to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open has kick started the 2019 season. The Spaniard followed up with a Semi Final run at Wimbledon for his best ever Grand Slam performance, although Bautista Agut has had little success at the Cincinnati Masters in the past.

I do think Bautista Agut can begin to change that having won his First Round match here impressively. That has helped him improve to 18-5 on the hard courts in 2019 and Bautista Agut is getting plenty out of his serve while remaining an effective returner.

Roberto Bautista Agut has reached the Quarter Final in all but one of the hard court events he has played this year, but he will also have to deal with the crowd on Wednesday who should be firmly behind Frances Tiafoe. The young American has just slipped down the World Rankings in recent months as he has struggled for the consistency needed on the main Tour though and I think Tiafoe is going to have to dig very deep to win this match considering he has largely unimpressive numbers.

Frances Tiafoe is at his best on the hard courts, but he has won less than 50% of the total points played on the surface which has contributed to a 10-9 record for the year. The serve can be effective, but Tiafoe has been holding 80% of service games played on the hard courts and his sub 20% break percentage in return games does not cover that.

I do have to respect the fact that Tiafoe surprisingly has a winning record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2019. He beat Gael Monfils in the First Round in Cincinnati to boost the confidence, but I also think Tiafoe will be well aware that he needs a poor performance from Bautista Agut to get into a position to win this match.

In general the Frances Tiafoe serve and return is not as effective against the top 20 Ranked players as his overall numbers and I think that shows up here. It is a big number for Bautista Agut to cover if Tiafoe is energised by the crowd, but I think the Spaniard is in good form and he can find a way to earn the cover in a victory to move into the Third Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 13th)

This is going to be a busy week at the Cincinnati Masters with the tournament getting straight into the meat of the event on Tuesday.

We have a number of Second Round matches already scheduled to be played alongside the remainder of the First Round and the weather looks pretty good for the rest of the week to ensure the tournament stays on the right path. It is a big chance for some to lay down a marker for the US Open and on Tuesday we have Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Serena Williams all set to play on the main show court in Cincinnati.


Monday saw just one pick made and Guido Pella managed to overcome Casper Ruud although he did have some fortune on his side in what was a very close match.

We also saw the return of Andy Murray to the Singles court and I always had faith that the Australian Open's 'goodbye' message was going to be premature. You could see from Murray's face that day that he was far from convinced he had played his last match and eight months later he is back on the courts as a Singles player.

No one will be that surprised that Murray was beaten as it is going to take some time to get back to full match fitness no matter how many Doubles matches he gets under his belt. The former World Number 1 is considering taking a Wild Card into an event in Winston Salem next week and he has already added a couple of events on the Asian swing to his schedule after the US Open is completed.

However it feels like the US Open is going to come too soon for Murray who is not ready to play best of five set matches, but there are plenty of positive noises coming from the Brit. He has mentioned being close to full strength in the next three months which means Murray could be ready to make a big impact at the Australian Open, although we have seen a number of players struggle when trying to make their way back onto the Tour considering it becomes a case of 'luck of the draw' in the early tournaments in which they return.


A good start to the week with the Pella pick is positive news, but Tuesday looks to be a busier day with the number of matches scheduled. There look to be a few more options for sure and I you can read my selections below.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Juan Ignacio Londero: I know I have made a point of not wishing to back Roger Federer when it comes to the large handicap marks when playing a best of three set match. A declining return of serve means it is becoming more and more difficult to expect the Swiss superstar to break multiple times that it takes to cover these sorts of numbers, but I do think he is someone I can look to in the Second Round in Cincinnati.

This has long been one of the favourite tournaments Federer plays and he has won seven titles here while reaching the Final twelve months ago before falling short to Novak Djokovic. In his last three appearances in Cincinnati Roger Federer has reached the Final every time and it was only the defeat to Djokovic last year that prevented him from securing the title in each of those runs.

All that means is that it would be a huge upset for Federer to lose this match, but I do think the prolonged break since reaching the Wimbledon Final will have done him some good. There is no doubt that Federer has to be seen as one of the favourites to win the US Open that begins later this month and his serve continues to be a deadly weapon on the hard courts having won 74% of points played behind that shot on this surface. Unsurprisingly he is very difficult to break.

A question remains about his capability to break serve with only 23% of return games played on the hard courts resulting in a break for Federer over a twelve month period. Those numbers don't even markedly improve when Federer faces players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, but I do think he should have a considerable edge over Juan Ignacio Londero who doesn't have a deep hard court pedigree.

2019 has been a stunning year for Londero who is up at a career high Number 55 in the World Rankings, but the foundation for that improvement has been laid in the performances on the clay courts. The Argentinian played his first hard court match of the year in Los Cabos a couple of weeks ago and Londero didn't play one match on the surface in 2018 and I include the Challenger and Qualifying events in that too.

His numbers have been decent from the very small sample we can see and Londero did earn a good looking win over Matteo Berrettini in the First Round. However this is a big step up against a confident hard court player and I do think the Londero serve will be put under pressure by the scoreboard pressure Roger Federer should be able to build up with his own serve throughout this match.

Juan Ignacio Londero has only played two top 10 Ranked opponents in his career and both on his favoured clay courts. He managed to hold onto just 50% of his service games played against Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev and he struggled to make an impact on the return of serve.

While I expect the faster surface to aid Londero, I do think Federer will be able to get his teeth into the return games and much will depend on how efficient he is at the big moments. At odds against I will back Federer to find the breaks of serve he needs and to cover this mark.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: From the moment Fabio Fognini ended his match with Rafael Nadal at the Canadian Masters last week it was clear that his participation in Cincinnati would be doubtful to say the least. He was entered into the draw for the final Masters event before the US Open, but the Italian unsurprisingly withdrew and that has given Joao Sousa a lifeline as he enters the main draw as a Lucky Loser.

Joao Sousa was beaten in the Qualifiers by Yoshihito Nishioka, but the latter has already won his First Round match here which shows he is in decent form. It was also the first hard court action for Sousa of the summer in the Qualifying tournament here and the move from the European clay courts onto the US hard courts can be difficult with the speed and conditions much different to face.

2019 has been a tough year on the hard courts for Sousa who has regularly had a miserable time on the US hard court swing following Wimbledon. He did reach the Fourth Round of the US Open in 2018, but Sousa has had a limited impact on the two Masters events played in August and he has struggled with his return of serve on the surface all year.

The Portuguese Number 1 has broken in just 14% of return games on the hard courts in 2019 and it is only the improvement in his hold numbers that have helped Sousa produce a 6-7 record. He may need to have a big serving day to keep Denis Shapovalov under pressure, although the Canadian is still capable of playing his best tennis on this surface.

Overall it has been a difficult year for the youngster as Shapovalov has slipped back down to Number 34 in the World Rankings. The serve continues to be a big weapon for Shapovalov with 85% of his service games played on the hard courts resulting in a hold, but he has made minimal improvement on the return and that is going to be a key to whether he can push back up the World Rankings.

In saying that, Shapovalov is breaking in 20% of return games which is a significantly better number than Sousa. Denis Shapovalov has also had a couple of very solid runs on the hard courts in Rotterdam and Miami in 2019 and I do think he can earn a measure of revenge for a three set defeat to Sousa back in early January in Auckland.

Conditions on the North American hard courts should be much more to Shapovalov's liking compared with those in Australia and New Zealand and I do think he can edge out Joao Sousa here. The latter can be a dangerous opponent when at his best, but he is only 4-6 in Cincinnati in the past before this tournament and I think Shapovalov can be backed to win and cover.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: A lingering forearm issue is preventing Petra Kvitova from playing as much tennis as she would have liked over the last three months. It was an injury that forced her out of the French Open and also meant she missed the majority of the grass court season before reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon.

Since then Kvitova has forced to take another withdrawal in Toronto last week, but the Czech left-hander has arrived in Cincinnati and has been on the site for a few days. Being given a bye through to the Second Round means Kvitova has had plenty of days to test the forearm to see how she feels and it does look like she will be ready to go.

She showed at Wimbledon that she can get right to things even off a relatively long lay off and Kvitova has been very strong on the hard courts throughout 2019. If she was fully healthy Kvitova would be one of the strong favourites at the US Open coming up, but the forearm problems do present one or two doubts both for her backers and for Petra Kvitova herself.

Over the last twelve months Kvitova has continued to build her platform for success on the hard courts behind a strong serve. Her return numbers have been relatively consistent with 43% of points won against the opponent's serve both in the longer twelve month look and in just the 2019 matches played.

Petra Kvitova will need to serve well against the still very average Maria Sakkari who continues to produce results that exceed her numbers. The Greek player is improved on the clay courts, but her hard court numbers remain average.

At her best Maria Sakkari can be capable of taking it to the very best players on the Tour with an aggressive game backed up by good movement. However Sakkari had a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 and she is just 9-9 on the surface in 2019 having comfortably beaten Camila Giorgi in the First Round.

Over the last twelve months Sakkari has continued to produce a decent serve and has won 44% of points on the return of serve on this surface. Those numbers take a sharp dip when considering how Sakkari has done against top 20 Ranked opponents in the same time period and I do think Petra Kvitova holds the mental edge having beaten the Greek player for the loss of five games in Miami earlier this year.

As long as Petra Kvitova is feeling reasonably comfortable taking to the court, I will back her to beat Maria Sakkari and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 1-0, + 1.82 Units (2 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 8th)

I have to admit I have not really had the time to write down my thoughts for the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters this week and a long weekend caught up with me on Tuesday when I decided to have an early night.

The research side of things was completed and you can see my selections from the Second Round ATP and Third Round WTA matches to be played on Wednesday. It is the busiest day I am going to have of the week so far with a number of matches fitting into where I would want them.


MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.02 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 6th)

The last Tennis Picks I made came from the week where the ATP Barcelona tournament was made and it was a difficult week on what is usually my favourite surface to watch tennis and make my selections.

Last week the weather played havoc in the events scheduled so I decided to wait until the Madrid Masters began before I would get back on the horse and look to rebound from the poor week. The next two weeks are very important to the top names to make a statement ahead of the start of the French Open later this month.

All of the top names are here in the first of two tournaments played on the clay where the ATP and WTA events are going on alongside each other. The same will happen in Rome before the Tours go their separate ways in the final week before the start of the French Open which is now less than three weeks from getting underway.


You can see my first selections from the Madrid tournament below. From the Tuesday thread through the rest of the week I should have analysis of a few of the selections being made, but for Monday it is simply going to be a list of my picks from the day's play.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 49.30 Units (607 Units Staked, + 8.12% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 27th)

Tuesday was a little more frustrating than Monday, but these things happen and I am not going to be negative about a week which is still producing a positive return.

The Miami Masters has reached the business end of the tournament with the WTA Premier Event Semi Final line up being put together by the end of Wednesday and the first of the ATP Masters Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.

There are five matches scheduled to be played on Wednesday as we get down to the final few days of the first half of the hard court season. The next hard court events on the main Tour will be played at the end of July when we will begin the run towards the US Open, and many players exiting in Miami will be heading to Europe and beginning preparation for the clay court season which will begin next week.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Qiang Wang: Winning two matches to reach a Premier Event Quarter Final is rare, but that is the case for Qiang Wang who has benefited from Serena Williams being forced to withdraw from the tournament in Miami. Wins over Johanna Konta and Yafan Wang have come in straight sets, but this is a step up for Wang against a player who is chasing to return to World Number 1 ahead of her favourite time of the season.

Simona Halep is a quality operator on the hard courts, but I don't think it is wrong to suggest that the clay courts are her favoured surface. The two month run to the French Open begins at the end of this week, but Halep has remained very consistent and can return to World Number 1 if she wins the title in Miami after Naomi Osaka's early exit.

The Romanian has dropped one set in three matches so far this week and Halep dominated Venus Williams in a comfortable win. This is a match in which the Halep serve will be tested, but she is returning very well in the conditions in Miami which may suit her game and I think that returning ability is going to put Qiang Wang under some pressure.

I have no doubt that Wang is an improved player, but she has yet to really put wins together against the very best players on the WTA Tour on the hard courts. A 10-10 record against top 20 opponents on this surface over the last fifteen months isn't horrible, but her numbers have taken a big dent compared to her overall hard court ones when she has been in those matches.

You can't completely draw a line through Wang considering her own ability to return serve, but I do thinK Simona Halep has an edge over her on that side of her game. I expect that will show up in this match and I can see Halep edging Wang out with at least one more break of serve in each set of a straight sets win and I think she is worth backing to cover the slightly smaller spread being offered by a couple of layers.

The odds are reflected in that smaller handicap, but I like Halep in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-3, + 4.38 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.33% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Day 4 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 9th)

Up and down.

That is pretty much the way the first three days at the Indian Wells tournament have gone for the Tennis Picks as the conditions have been tough to deal with for the players.

It does mean a slight losing position for the week, but I've had much poorer starts in Indian Wells through the years and so I know it could have been a lot worse.


On Saturday we have the completion of the WTA Premier Event Second Round matches and the start of the ATP Masters Second Round. That means there are some top names taking to the courts during the day and the tournament will really feel like it is picking up the pace.

I don't have as many selections as on Friday, but you can read the Tennis Picks below.


Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: The hard courts might not be the favoured surface of either of these players who meet in the Second Round, but the match in front of them gives them a good chance to put some solid World Ranking points on the board.

Both Laslo Djere and Guido Andreozzi have been playing on the South American Golden Swing over the last month which won't surprise anyone who knows a thing about these two players. The move from the clay onto the hard courts is not the most testing and I do think both Djere and Andreozzi won't mind the speed of the court as one of the slower hard courts out there which will suit clay courters like these two.

Guido Andreozzi has already upset the odds by coming through his First Round match against Ilya Ivashka, but he will have to do the same if he is going to win this match.

The numbers on the hard courts are not that impressive from a player that doesn't play on this surface all that much, but Laslo Djere's are not jumping off the page either. The latter is perhaps someone who can hold onto serve with a little more consistency than Andreozzi, but the Argentinian has found his return to be a little more effective on the surface.

However confidence could be a factor and Djere should be full of it having had such a strong run on the clay courts in the last month. He won his first title ont the Tour and he is someone who has played at a higher level than Andreozzi for the most part and the confidence could be the difference maker on the day when the two players are matched up as closely as these two seem to be.

I do think a strong serving day from Djere could be the key reason he is able to come through this match and I will back him to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 8-8, - 1.54 Units (32 Units Staked, - 4.81% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Day 1 Tennis Picks (March 6th)

There was a time when the tournament coming up in Miami was considered the unofficial fifth Grand Slam, but that title seems to be taken by the tournament in Indian Wells these days.

Both the ATP and WTA Tours come together for the next month with the back to back North American hard court Masters/Premier Events scheduled to be played. These events are the same length as the Grand Slam tournaments but one of the key differences for the top Seeds is that they are given a Bye through to the Second Round. The big names return to the Tour after taking in very little competitive tennis between the Australian Open and this event beginning.

You have to factor in the conditions in Indian Wells which has regularly been considered one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but the outside factors do make the ball fly through the air. It is something to consider as most of the players are coming into the tournament playing in very differing conditions in Europe (lots of indoor tennis) and in the Middle East where the conditions tend to be that much faster than you will find in the two North American hard court events coming up.


It is something you should be looking at this week and factoring into the selections although the men's tournament have been dominated by the big names as you would expect in recent years. In something of a surprise Roger Federer has been very good in the conditions, while Juan Martin Del Potro is the defending Champion and that suggests the desert air does give players the chance to really hit through the court.

Naomi Osaka won the women's event here in 2018, although the recent winners have been a mixed bag on the WTA side of things. However that is very similar to the way the Grand Slams have been shared out by a number of different names in the last couple of years.


The First Round of the WTA event in Indian Wells begins on Wednesday and the ATP First Round is set to begin on Thursday for a tournament that will take twelve days to complete before the players have to make the move to East Coast and begin the Miami event.

In the last week of the Tennis Picks I added some positive numbers to what has been a very good 2019 season, but I will admit I have had very little success in the month of March over the last few years. It was actually this time last year when I decided to take a break for the entire month and work out a way to just straighten out my criteria for making Picks after what had been a difficult fifteen months.

That has seemingly worked, but this time I want to be in front of the evolution as we begin a new game at a new tournament to see if I can keep the positive numbers coming.


Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Pauline Parmentier: The Indian Wells tournament and the one coming up in Miami are two of the slower hard courts on the Tour and it does feel much like a 'horses for courses' kind of event. This is one of the big events outside of the Grand Slams so motivation for all of the big names will be high, but conditions in the desert on the West Coast of the United States have been difficult for players to deal with, especially in relation to what is considered to be the slowest hard court on the Tour.

The problem for players is balancing out the overall conditions which sees the ball fly off the racquet in Indian Wells and it means a lot of unforced errors can be in play. Players are pushing to hit the ball through a slow court, but timing can be an issue and that is what players will have to face here.

Johanna Konta is a big favourite to beat Pauline Parmentier in the First Round of the WTA draw, but she has not had a memorable time in Indian Wells in the past. Her best run is reaching the Fourth Round in 2016, but Konta has won just one match in her last two visits to this tournament although I would expect her to get the better of her opponent in this one.

There is no doubt that there is room for improvement in the Konta game as she has struggled to reach the heights she did on the hard court in 2016. Her numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons including in her opening matches in 2019, but Konta is still a dangerous player when she can get herself going.

Pauline Parmentier is going to have to really raise her level if she is going to force Konta to have to dig deep and perhaps earn an upset in this one. If the Frenchwoman can put some pressure on Konta there is a chance she can do that, but it has been a difficult 2019 for Parmentier who is 4-6 on the hard courts overall and sees that record drop to 1-5 when she has faced top 100 Ranked opponents.

The serve has been attacked and Parmentier has not really returned as well as she would have liked and that doesn't bode well in a match against someone like Konta who reached the Quarter Final in Acapulco last week. It has been a struggle against the top 100 Ranked opponents Parmentier has faced on the hard courts in the last fifteen months and her numbers reflect that which is why I am leaning towards Konta in not only winning, but covering what is a big number on paper.

In that time Parmentier is 4-17 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and she has failed to cover this number in twelve of those losses. Johanna Konta is 17-3 in the same timespan when playing against someone Ranked outside the top 50 and she has found a way to cover this number in twelve of those wins and I will look for her to break the Parmentier serve enough times to earn a cover here too.


Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There are a number of bright young talents coming through on the WTA Tour and the highest Ranked teenager on the Tour is Dayana Yastremska. The Ukrainian moved into a career high spot of Number 34 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Hua Hin at the end of January/early February and Yastremska has looked very impressive in the matches she has played.

She is going to be a big favourite to see off Daria Gavrilova in the First Round in Indian Wells as the Australian has made a miserable start to 2019. Daria Gavrilova has lost all six matches she has played on the hard courts and those have largely been uncompetitive losses which always knocks the confidence a lot more.

In those six losses, Gavrilova has only managed to win a single set and even getting this number of games would not have been enough to 'win' any of those matches by covering the handicap. The serve has always been a shot that can be attacked by opponents and her numbers have not really dipped on that front, but Gavrilova has struggled on the return of serve and she is winning a lot fewer points than she has been doing.

At some point I would expect Gavrilova to recover her form and start putting some wins on the board, but this could be a tough match for her. Dayana Yastremska has been serving pretty well for the most part, but she is backing it up with some big returning and my only fear for the Ukrainian is that she gets a little bamboozled by the conditions and begins to make a lot more unforced errors as she struggles to control the ball off the strings.

The speed around the court should help Gavrilova use her defensive skills effectively in this First Round match and confusing the youngster or forcing her to go too close to the lines will give her the chance of the upset. However I do think Yastremska will be able to push the Australian back behind the baseline and I am anticipating her getting into a position to force a number of breaks of serve.

Yastremska has been very strong playing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 so far this season and has won eleven of thirteen in that spot. In those eleven wins Yastremska would have covered this mark eight times and I think she will be in a position to do that here against an out of sorts opponent.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 42.52 Units (427 Units Staked, + 9.96% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 16th)

This week has been a little up and down for the Tennis Picks and Wednesday was no different after seeing two picks return as winners and two head to the loser's enclosure.

It was a little frustrating as Kei Nishikori blew a 4-1 lead in the first set to lose seven games in a row against Stan Wawrinka and he never recovered from that moment. Angelique Kerber also had a number of opportunities to really take control of her Second Round match before missing the cover by one game so I have to be a little disappointed.

However it is still a winning week as we have reached the Third Round.

On Thursday there look to be a number of options to play after what has been a relatively quiet first three days from the Cincinnati Tennis Picks. The rain could be a real factor though and I would not be surprised if many of these Third Round matches are held over until Friday when the winners will have to play a Third Round and Quarter Final on the same day,

That's not something that will concern me too much just yet, but the tournament organisers would love to get into a position to get this event back on track as there are already some Second Round matches that have to be completed. The forecast is not great for the Thursday, but these are my Third Round Picks.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: With a game like the one that Robin Haase possesses I think I would have expected him to have had some stronger results on the hard courts than he has had in his career. There have been some very strong runs in tournaments which have to be respected, but the consistency can be lacking with the majority of problems coming from a return game which is no better than average.

This could be a period of seeing the good Haase playing on the hard courts as he has backed up a decent week in Toronto by making it through to the Third Round in Cincinnati. Haase reached the Quarter Final last week and he has already beaten Alexander Zverev here in Cincinnati which has to give the Dutchman some real belief he can make a move up the World Rankings.

The run here may have come as a surprise to the fans, but Haase may have surprised himself too having previously lost his only two other matches played at this tournament. He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Zverev, but you need that bit of luck as the lower Ranked player against someone as strong as the German and so Haase should come into this Third Round match with some real confidence.

It is a very tough match up for Haase who has lost both previous matches against Pablo Carreno Busta, although both were on the clay courts and they haven't played each other in recent years. Carreno Busta has played well enough to win his first two matches here, but he hasn't always felt at his best on what could be considered some of the quickest hard courts on the Tour.

I do think Haase has the bigger serve in this match, but the wet conditions may make it a little easier for Carreno Busta to get his superior return game working. The Spaniard has actually been serving just effectively enough to win matches on the hard courts and his numbers have been far better than in previous years on this surface.

If he can maintain the standards that have helped him reach the US Open Semi Final in 2017 and also the Semi Final at the Miami Masters I do give Carreno Busta the edge in this match. It can be hard to trust the Spaniard with a serve that can quickly capitulate in a single set, but I think he has been in decent enough form and is returning well enough to get the better of Haase as the latter looks to back up one of his better wins of the season.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise if we need three sets to separate the players in this Third Round match, but I give the edge to Carreno Busta and think he returns well enough to cover this number.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: If you like your tennis full of big serving and heavy groundstrokes from the baseline then this Third Round match is going to be for you. Both Karen Khachanov and Marin Cilic will look to produce big first serves which will allow them to dictate rallies behind strong forehands and I don't think this will be a long match simply as both players should be able to run through some service games with a 'wham-bam' style of play.

Marin Cilic will always be a popular dark horse to win the big titles on the hard courts with his game tailor made for this surface. He has a big serve and is a decent returner, while the former US Open Champion reached the Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018 to prove he can go deep into Grand Slams across the world.

Last week was a little disappointing from Cilic's point of view with the Quarter Final exit from the Canadian Masters coming in a tough luck situation against Rafael Nadal. Have no doubt that Cilic will feel he missed a big opportunity to beat the World Number 1, but the overall performance has to put him in a good position to have a deep run in Cincinnati and the US Open which begins in less than two weeks.

Cilic has significantly improved his serving numbers on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2017 and that has been a key to some of his successes. The break percentage is down, but he has won a higher percentage of return points which suggests he has been a little unfortunate on that side of his game and could have another strong run in him.

There will have to be a healthy respect for Karen Khachanov who reached the Semi Final in Toronto last week before going down to Rafael Nadal. This has been a decent year on the hard courts for the young Russian and he has backed up that run with two wins in the main draw in Cincinnati and confidence has to be coursing through Khachanov at the moment.

Khachanov has a very impressive serve which makes him a dangerous opponent especially on this court in Cincinnati. However the reason he has yet to really make a significant impact on the Tour is the return game which has proven to be an issue when he has stepped up to take on some of the better players on the Tour.

It does feel like that will be the case here and that is where I think Cilic has enough of an edge to come through this Third Round match. There will be times the Croatian may get frustrated as he does have some difficulties to get into the Khachanov service games and he will have to avoid throwing away a loose service game in that situation. If Cilic can do that I think he will get his chances against the Khachanov serve and I will back the top ten player to win this match and cover the number.


Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v David Goffin: It has been very interesting to see the development of Kevin Anderson in recent years and the hard work he has put in has been rewarded with his best tennis being played in the last couple of years. The South African was a US Open Finalist in 2017 so he does have some big points to defend in the next month to keep his World Ranking as high as it is, but you have to give Anderson a lot of credit for continuing to produce a consistent brand of tennis.

Anderson is always going to be dangerous on the hard courts with the serve he has and the conditions in Cincinnati may only aid him that much more. He has also improved his return game in the last couple of years on this surface which has helped Anderson in producing his best results in his career, although no one will confuse the top ten player with the top returners on the Tour.

However that side of his game is also aided by the very strong serving displays which does put pressure on opponents to hold onto their own serve. On Thursday it will be David Goffin who tries to do that having had a tough couple of weeks on the hard courts despite some decent numbers in 2018.

There is no doubting the quality Goffin brings to the court and he will be a big favourite to win any rally in this match that develops to more than five hits. The serve has perhaps been a little more vulnerable in the last couple of weeks than Goffin would have liked and that has to be a concern when going up against someone like Anderson who will feel he can take some free shots on the return if his own serve is working well.

Much of the outcome of this match will depend if Goffin can bring his strong returning numbers into this one. I am not that convinced it will be the case having really struggled against the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Washington and Milos Raonic in Toronto. Kevin Anderson is a superior server to both of those players at the moment and I think the South African will be able to exert some scoreboard pressure to win this match and crack the David Goffin serve to cover this number.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: After dropping the first set against Adrian Mannarino Novak Djokovic was able to get back on track with two dominant sets to move through to the Third Round. There was some concern about a stomach illness that Djokovic was suffering through but he will have some time to prepare for this match while any rain could be a blessing in disguise for the former World Number 1.

Having an extra day of rest would be huge for Djokovic but it perhaps is even more of an issue for Grigor Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian has a poor record against Novak Djokovic and he was beaten very easily by Djokovic on the grass courts of Queens Club back in June. His best opportunity to turn around a poor run of losses to Djokovic may be facing a potentially ill opponent but that says a lot about where Dimitrov stands as far as I am concerned.

2018 has been a relatively poor season for Dimitrov considering he came into this year off winning the ATP Finals. It has not been a bad year on the hard courts in terms of the wins he has generated, but Dimitrov has really struggled on the return side of things which is going to make it tough to beat some of the best players on the Tour.

Those numbers have been really poor when it comes to playing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and on all surfaces in 2018. Dimitrov may have struggled on the return even more than in general, but the bigger concern has to be how far his own serve numbers drop off and Djokovic is certainly good enough to take advantage of that.

You can't ignore the fact that Djokovic's numbers have declined in each of the last four years on the hard courts from 2015 to 2018. His service numbers in whole are down while he is breaking less in each year, although I do like the fact he has won a higher percentage of return points compared with 2017 which suggests the break percentage is due to improve.

The illness is a slight concern, but Djokovic could have plenty of time to get ready for this match and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to get the better of this opponent again and cover what looks a big number on first glance.


Lesia Tsurenko v Ekaterina Makarova: One of the main concerns about Lesia Tsurenko is the health side of things as she has had her problems in 2018. She had to retire from a match in Montreal just last week, but that hasn't stopped Tsurenko from winning back to back matches in Cincinnati and against some quality opponents too.

If she can stay healthy Tsurenko is certainly capable of having a very good run on the hard courts through the remainder of 2018 and her numbers have been decent enough this season. The wins over Danielle Collins and Garbine Muguruza are very impressive, while Tsurenko was able to get the better of Ekaterina Makarova when they last met on the Tour.

The Russian knows all about injury problems having been plagued with them over the last couple of years. Makarova has a poor 8-9 record on the hard courts in 2018 and that has been improved by her two wins here in Cincinnati, while her second serve has been one that Tsurenko will look to attack.

Tsurenko has been much better than that on the hard courts too with an 18-9 record in 2018 and it is her return game which has really impressed. While both players will feel they are comfortable on the hard courts, the numbers stack up slightly more favourably for Tsurenko which makes it hard to see her as the underdog in this one barring an injury flaring up again.

Her numbers have been superior to Makarova's on the hard courts and I will back Tsurenko to work her way through to the Quarter Final.


Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: So many people have tipped up Caroline Garcia for some big things on the WTA Tour but she seems to have hit something of a wall in her move up the World Rankings. All credit has to be given to any player who has reached the top ten of the World Rankings so you can't take that away from the Frenchwoman, but Garcia has to show that she is now capable of winning the very biggest of events on the Tour.

One Quarter Final at Grand Slam level is not really good enough for a player of Garcia's ability, but she looks like she could be entering the US Open with some good form behind her. Last week she reached the Quarter Final in Montreal and a strong win over Victoria Azarenka means Garcia is playing for a second Quarter Final spot in consecutive weeks on Thursday.

I don't think you can ignore that there is room for improvement from Garcia to take the next positive step in her career. Her return game on the hard courts have not reached the level of some of the very best players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on Garcia to serve at a very high level to remain competitive in those matches.

The serve has been a decent weapon for Garcia, but this is a tough match for her against the improving Aryna Sabalenka. This is the second good week in a row for Sabalenka at the very high Premier Event level and the wins over Johanna Konta and Karolina Pliskova shows this player is operating at a very good level.

It makes her very dangerous for Garcia especially when you think Sabalenka has been serving effectively on the hard courts and against a returner like Garcia it should be a big weapon for her. However Sabalenka has had two tough matches here and I do wonder if fatigue could be an issue for her against a strong server like Garcia.

That is one of the main reasons I am opposing Sabalenka here having needed three sets to beat two tough opponents. She will need to dig deep in this one too and Garcia has tended to perform at a higher level when she has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 20.

Garcia's numbers are improved across the board in those matches and I think she can win this match in three sets which should still give her a chance to cover the number.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: You would imagine the hard courts would give Madison Keys a real edge in her matches with Angelique Kerber, but this has proven to be a very tough match up for the American. It is Kerber who has won seven of the eight previous matches between these players and the German has won all six matches they have played on the hard courts including at the Australian Open in January.

The Kerber numbers on the hard courts have also been superior to Madison Keys and the only concern for the Wimbledon Champion is the long Second Round match she had against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The conditions in Cincinnati may be a positive for Keys if she can get her big first serve working and then follow that up with big groundstrokes before Kerber can set up in her defensive stance. That's some pressure though and Keys could quickly lose hope in what has been a poor match up for her.

It is the Kerber return game which gives her a significant edge in this match and I do think she will be a little too good for Keys. This is a big number to cover when you consider the long match played by Kerber on Wednesday as well as the quicker hard court in Cincinnati, but the German has not dropped a set against Keys in the last four matches between them and would have covered this number each time.

I will back her to do the same here although this is a match that could be held over until Friday.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The last couple of weeks have seen Elise Mertens produce some strong hard court results for the first time since very early in 2018 when she reached the Australian Open Semi Final. However I do think Mertens has ridden her luck at times in matches and she is going to have to be a lot better if she wants to beat a player of the quality of Sloane Stephens.

The American looks to be rounding into very strong form for the US Open and she has been blowing away opponents over the last ten days.

When Stephens gets into this kind of roll she can be very tough to stop and it took all of the skill of the current World Number 1 Simona Halep to beat Stephens in the Montreal Final on Sunday. That hasn't dented the confidence of Stephens who was a dominant Second Round winner in Cincinnati and she has the overall game to control this match with Mertens.

Defensively Stephens can match the consistency of Mertens from the back of the court, but I think the American gets a little more out of her serve and that is key here. Both players will have a lot of success on the return of serve with the way they play, but having a few more opportunities to get out of tough games will give Stephens the edge to win this match.

This is another match that may need to be held over, but I like Stephens to win the match with her superior hard court play and I will back to cover too.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 6-4, + 4.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 22.80% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 15th)

The Masters tournaments that are played in the same week are very busy events and the Cincinnati Masters is no different.

Both the ATP and WTA event in Cincinnati will be playing the entire Second Round on the same day which means there are plenty of matches scheduled for Wednesday.

As is the case in every year, there is some significant chance of seeing rain during the tournament in Cincinnati and so there is a real chance that some of these matches scheduled won't be able to be completed. That isn't very fair to those players who will have to play twice on the same day to try and move through what is a big tournament outside of the Grand Slams and the last chance for the top names to really put some form together before the US Open begins.

There isn't much we can do about the weather, but these are the selections from Wednesday after a mixed Tuesday. It has at least maintained the positive number for the week, but I want to kick on and add to the start in the days ahead.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 games v Bradley Klahn: The court speed in Cincinnati should be one that is enjoyed by Bradley Klahn and he has shown he can perform by coming through the Qualifiers and also win a First Round match here. This is part of a good month on the US hard courts as Klahn was also able to Qualify for the Canadian Masters event last week and also won a First Round match there which is a huge boost to the World Ranking.

That all means Klahn should be back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings at the beginning of the US Open and the American is heading back towards his peak Ranking which was earned in 2014.

The service numbers will always make Klahn a threat to opponents but he has to find a way to really get something from the return which is more effective than what he has been able to produce so far. In general his return game is not that great, but that has particularly shown up when he has moved up to play main ATP Tour matches and will be a problem when it comes to making real moves up the World Rankings.

You would think that facing a server like Pablo Carreno Busta would give Bradley Klahn more of a chance to get into the return games, but the Spaniard has found some love for the hard courts over the last twelve months. A US Open Semi Finalist and reaching the same stage at the Miami Masters underlines that while Carreno Busta has been very good at protecting his serve on this service with an 83% hold percentage.

That number is significantly better than previous years and it makes Carreno Busta's life a little easier on the hard courts where he has continued to show his decent return game. Carreno Busta is winning almost 39% of points against the serve on the hard courts and I think it will be the return game which allows him to edge past the American player in this one.

I imagine it will be close considering how Klahn can serve, but I think Carreno Busta will find one more break of serve than his opponent and that should be enough to win and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Both Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka have been returning from injury problems in 2018, but the transition back to the main Tour has been a little smoother for the former. There have been some real signs that Stan Wawrinka is on the way back to the level we all know he can produce, but I do think his game is played with much less margin of error than many which means his consistency could take that much longer than the likes of Nishikori, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who have all bounced back from injury in recent years.

Wawrinka did produce a strong win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the First Round in Cincinnati and you would think he would enjoy hitting through this court. He also won a couple of tough matches in Toronto last week before running into Rafael Nadal and Wawrinka was only narrowly beaten in that match, but there is still the question mark about his consistency.

Even the serve has not quite reached the level Wawrinka has produced on the hard courts in recent years, but that side of his game could be aided by the quicker conditions in Cincinnati. The real issue for Wawrinka has been the return game and he he has won just 32% of points against the serve on the hard courts in 2018, while that has translated to a poor break percentage.

Like Pablo Carreno Busta, no one will confuse Kei Nishikori with the big servers on the Tour, and that has to encourage Stan Wawrinka in this one.

However Nishikori has been just about good enough on that side of his game to think he can at least keep Wawrinka under pressure in this one. The key is to make sure he doesn't give Wawrinka the chance to see too many second serves, and that would give Nishikori a chance to get his superior return game going.

There is still some room for improvement for Nishikori too after an up and down 2018 coming back from injury, but he has played well enough on the hard courts to think he edges out his opponent. Nishikori wins almost 40% of points against the serve on this surface and that number is only slightly dented when you remove all the non-ATP main Tour events.

I don't think this will be anything but a competitive match, but I give Kei Nishikori enough of an edge to win this one and move past Stan Wawrinka.


Sloane Stephens - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: Twelve months ago Sloane Stephens made a couple of surprising runs in the Canadian and Cincinnati Premier Events after recently returning from a long lay off. Even then not many would have picked the American to go on and win the US Open.

Stephens has had some ups and downs since winning her maiden Grand Slam, but she has become a player who builds momentum within tournaments that can be very hard to stop. She won a big title in Miami earlier in 2018, the second biggest title of her career, and Stephens has since reached the French Open Final as well as the Canadian Premier Event Final last week.

Backing up big weeks can be difficult, but I think Stephens has been given a good chance to make a start when taking on Tatjana Maria in the Second Round. The American has had a few days off from the Sunday Final loss to Simona Halep in Montreal so I am not too worried about fatigue, while Stephens showed she can have two big weeks in a row by winning a Grand Slam title and also playing so well in Canada and Cincinnati in 2017.

Tatjana Maria has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in the main draw which deserves a lot of respect. However that means she has played plenty of tennis in recent days and Maria has not produced strong numbers on the hard courts in 2018.

Those numbers take another decline when you only consider the main draw WTA tournaments she has played on the hard courts and Maria will have to hope Stephens is off her game here. Maria is 1-11 on the hard courts in main draw matches at the WTA level and she would have failed to get within this number in nine of those defeats.

There is no doubt that Stephens can sometimes be hard to trust, especially when it comes to covering these big numbers. However she would have done that in all four wins in Montreal last week and I will back the American to get off to a very strong start in Cincinnati.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The first time Angelique Kerber took to the court following her title win at Wimbledon saw her go down to a defeat to Alize Cornet in Montreal last week. That isn't the best preparation for the US Open and Kerber will need to get the better of an opponent who has given her plenty of trouble in the past if she is going to put some wins together before the last Grand Slam of the 2018 season begins.

Kerber and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have won both six matches against the other in the past and it was the former who snapped a three match losing run to the Russian when beating her in Miami earlier this year.

Pavlyuchenkova has won a couple of matches on the hard courts in the last ten days which has improved her record to 4-7 on this surface in 2018. However you can't ignore the fact it has been a difficult season for the Russian player who has seen her percentage of points won on the second serve and her returning numbers drop from 2017 to 2018.

That has made it easier for opponents to get on top of her on the hard courts which should be Pavlyuchenkova's favoured surface. The very close defeat to Simona Halep last week has to give her some belief she can play against an opponent on the WTA Tour, but I think Kerber is perhaps going to be able to frustrate for long enough to extract errors even on the quicker Cincinnati surface.

You have to consider that Kerber has not had the best record at Cincinnati and that is despite reaching the Final here two years ago. The quicker conditions can make it tough to defend on this court as Kerber would like, but I think she will bounce back from the loss to Cornet last week and get the better of a player she did beat in Miami a few months ago.

Pavlyuchenkova's own recent record in Cincinnati is nothing to write home about and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to edge through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Update: 4-2, + 4.56 Units (12 Units Staked, + 38% Yield)