Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 15th)

Life can sometimes be busier than expected and that was the case for me on Monday which means I am not able to write out my research for the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the Rome Masters.

After a solid opening day from the Rome Masters, I am hoping these selections can push things further forward in a positive direction.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 14th)

A sometimes strange US Open came to a close on Sunday on a weekend when Naomi Osaka confirmed herself to be the next big thing in Women's Tennis and Dominic Thiem winning his first ever Grand Slam.

The two losing Finalists are going to feel they missed a big opportunity as both looked to be playing the superior tennis when seeing the finishing line come over the horizon, but Victoria Azarenka and Alexander Zverev have to find a way to move past the disappointment of the tournament. I do think it will be a harder task for Zverev as the German looked to be much closer to winning the title than Azarenka having served for it, but other players have recovered from a deep disappointment to go on and win Grand Slam titles.

That is what Alexander Zverev will be hoping for, but Naomi Osaka and Dominic Thiem will be enjoying their moment in the sun.

Both players deserve their successes over the last fortnight and I have to credit the tournament for being able to put together the event as they have, even if it was one that didn't completely avoid controversy.

At the end of the day the US Open have shown that the Tour is one that can operate even through the rising Coronavirus cases that we are seeing in Europe, although I am going to be interested to see how the French Open manage the fans they are planning to let into the grounds when that tournament begins later this month.

Talk of the French Open does mean preparation for the third and final Grand Slam of the season will already have begun by many players who played in clay court events arranged for last week. The Tour has the feeling of some normality as we enter a new week with a new tournament being played, but this is far bigger than how the usual schedule would be approached.

A Masters 1000 tournament being set to be played the day after a Grand Slam event has been completed doesn't usually happen as you can imagine, but the limited time between the US Open and the French Open means the Rome Masters had to be placed here.

That will give the top names some clay court matches under their belt and also mean they have a few days to rest before the third Grand Slam of 2020 begins. There is some uncertainty still around at these times, but hopefully there is more quality Tennis to come during a time I usually enjoy the most.

On Monday there are a number of First Round matches scheduled in the ATP and WTA event being played in Rome and I have a few selections from those matches. I should have fuller threads the remainder of the week, but in this thread I will write dow my Picks from the Monday offerings.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 17th)

The rain on Wednesday meant fifty matches were scheduled in Rome for Thursday as the majority of the Second Round and the whole of the Third Round had to be completed as well as a host of Doubles matches.

It was a busy day all around, but the headlines were grabbed by Nick Kyrgios just twenty-four hours after the release of an explosive interview on a podcast.

In that interview, Kyrgios admitted his dislike for both Fernando Verdasco and Novak Djokovic and had some words for Rafael Nadal too. It sounded like the Australian doesn't have a lot of time for any of those players, although he was glowing of Roger Federer before describing Andy Murray's head to head with Djokovic as 'embarrassing' despite being close to the Scot.

We don't really hear stuff like this from tennis players these days so it was a breath of fresh air and certainly makes future matches between Kyrgios and any of the three he disparaged as 'must watch' entertainment. Some would not have liked it, but I don't mind people speaking their minds, although it backed up why I almost never make selections on Kyrgios matches despite being a fan.

He admitted he doesn't owe the fans anything and he is a terrible favourite to get behind. As an underdog he can be interesting and he might even be someone that can be opposed at times, but I like steering clear as I can't guess what he is going to bring from day to day.

To back up that feeling, Kyrgios decided to throw his chair onto the court in his Second Round defeat in Rome on Thursday. He then packed up his stuff and walked off court while on serve in the third set and that earned Krygios a default and more unwanted headlines.


I know he could be a top player if he put his mind to it, but for too long Kyrgios has admitted he doesn't love tennis enough to want to work at his game. Maybe he will eventually get it, or maybe he will be the enigma that people can't help watching.

I think he is a better bloke than he likes to portray on the court and I will remain a fan. He is someone I would pay to watch, despite my doubts about what kind of performance we will see from him, and that is because I do think he is entertaining. Each to their own I suppose.


In this thread I have updated the season totals and the weekly total having seen the last couple of days disrupted with matches being held over.


MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Update: 17-15, + 0 Units (64 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2019: + 73.40 Units (655 Units Staked, + 11.21% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 16th)

After a terrible day of rain at the Rome Open, the Tennis on Thursday is going to see the whole of the Second Round and Third Round being completed which means a number of players are going to have to win two matches in a matter of hours to stay in the tournament.

It is not ideal, but the organisers have to get this tournament back on track, although the weather forecast for the weekend is not looking great. The next two days do look better though and I would expect the event to be back in line with what they would have expected.


With the quick turnaround I do think there are going to be some matches that I would want to move past, but others could still be worthy of being selected for the Tennis Picks. There really isn't going to be the time I would like to put any thoughts down, but I should be able to invest enough time to look through the matches as they are put together and add any to this thread.

I will endeavour to get those matches out at least a couple of hours before the players are due on court, but much depends on the speed in which the layers are able to formulate their markets. Adding in the factor of some players being involved in a second match of the day going up against others who have not played may mean a slight shift in my criteria and I think it will also mean I am passing on some matches that may have usually been intriguing to me.


This thread will be updated over the next few hours as more Third Round matches are confirmed and I will update season and weekly totals in the Friday thread as we reach the Quarter Final in Rome.


MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 15th)

I've really been hoping to have the time to write out a fuller thread for the Tennis Picks from the Rome Masters, but personal situations means it has simply not been possible through the first three days.

It is more of the same on Wednesday with the remainder of the Second Round matches scheduled to be completed. I did not have a very good Tuesday to be honest with the selections and it is the worst day of the clay court season so far which has dented the numbers for this week.

I am looking to get that turned around on Wednesday with the rest of the Second Round to be completed and you can see the selections for the day below.


MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Update: 8-8, - 2.16 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 14th)

I am a little irritated that my internet connection was playing up on Monday which prevented me from writing out the kind of thread I was hoping for the Tennis Picks from the Rome Masters on Tuesday.

It is one thing getting the research put together from your phone, but another altogether in trying to write out full blog posts on the same device.

With First Round matches being completed and Second Round matches getting underway, it is a very busy day in the Italian capital and I will place my selections in this thread. A positive start to the week is something I am looking to build on, and this could be the busiest day of the week for the Tennis Picks with a number of matches hitting my criteria that has been successful in 2019.


I did mention I am going to be updating the season totals, but that will be placed in the Wednesday post.

The Rome Update below does not include the Jeremy Chardy selection from Monday as that match was cut short because of the rain and will be concluded on Tuesday.


MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Update: 5-2, + 4.60 Units (14 Units Staked, + 32.86% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 13th)

As I mentioned in the Sunday thread, I think the first couple of days at the Rome Masters is going to be tough for me to write out full analysis of the Picks.

Two of the three Tennis Picks came through on Sunday as winners and my Monday selections can be seen below. From Tuesday things should be rolling much better and I should have a fuller thread for the remaining days in Rome.


MY PICKS: Marco Cecchinato - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Update: 2-1, + 1.40 Units (6 Units Staked, + 23.33% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 9th)

The Tennis Picks really came through for me on Wednesday as seven of the nine selections returned as winners which has put the week in Madrid in a very strong position.

We are into the Third Round of the ATP Masters tournament being played here and the Quarter Final of the WTA Premier Event and it is another busy day in Madrid. At least it is not going to be as windy as it was on Wednesday which should mean better tennis can be played by those going onto the court.

One player who won't be there is David Ferrer who was beaten in the Second Round by Alexander Zverev. That result had more implications than seeing the latter moving through to the Third Round as David Ferrer called time on his career, a wonderful career where he has wrung every ounce of potential from his game and gone even further.

Not many would have predicted David Ferrer would be a mainstay of the top 50 of the World Rankings and he was always humble enough to describe himself as the 'worst player to ever make the top 100' of the World Rankings. However hard work and a sheer stubborn determination saw Ferrer reach a Major Final at Roland Garros and he made the Semi Final of all four of the Majors which is a remarkable achievement from someone who was not expected to hit the heights in the spot.

David Ferrer was both unfortunate and fortunate to be in this era alongside Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and I do think he would have been a Major Champion if playing ten to fifteen years earlier. I don't think the Spaniard will regret competing with some of the names that will go down in Tennis history and Ferrer earned the respect of all his peers.

I liked him a lot as a player and he seems like a decent person off the court too. It has been clear for some time that David Ferrer is not the player he was, but he can be proud of his achievements and I hope he enjoys a well deserved retirement.


After a very strong Wednesday the key is to not give anything back to the layers. Adding to the winners and keeping the week's numbers moving in the direction they have been in the last three days is the aim for Thursday and my selections can be seen below from the matches scheduled to be played through another long day in Madrid.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: In recent weeks Stan Wawrinka has been speaking about getting back to his best on the tennis court after injuries have been slowing him down in the last couple of years. The Swiss player is very comfortable on the clay courts, but those injuries meant he had a very difficult time on the surface in 2018.

Those difficulties look to be behind the former French Open Champion who has won a couple of matches here in Madrid to get through to the Third Round. Stan Wawrinka was beaten pretty early on in Monte Carlo, but he was an unfortunate loser to Marco Cecchinato and in general it feels like he is playing closer to the levels he was producing on the clay courts before being bitten by the injury bug.

Make no mistake that this is a real test to see where Wawrinka is with his tennis when he takes on Kei Nishikori who needed to dig deep to come through in straight sets in his opening match here. The Japanese star is a very good clay court player and he has been serving well, but Wawrinka can put some real pressure on him if he continues serving at the level he has been with a 90% hold number on the clay in 2019.

Last year it was the problems on the return of serve that really held Wawrinka back, but he been in pretty good nick in his four clay court matches played so far this time around. While the 29% break number is higher than previous years, it is much more like Wawrinka's performances prior to 2018 on the clay and I do think this is a player on the up.

The head to head has not seen these two players meet too many times on the clay courts- in fact their first match against each was on the clay, but the last nine have been played on other surfaces. Even then you have to respect the fact that Wawrinka has won the last two matches between these players with the most recent being in February 2019 and I do think that will help him to mentally stay checked into this match.

It is a big match for two players who will feel the French Open gives them a chance to go deep in the tournament and so a statement win can only add to the belief they will have in Paris. The current performances of Stan Wawrinka have been slightly higher than Kei Nishikori on the clay courts and coupled with the two wins earned over this opponent over the last nine months I do think Wawrinka is the right player to back.

Both players only have a small sample on the clay courts in 2019, but I think Stan Wawrinka might be the superior player on the surface and can underline that belief by winning this match and covering the number.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: Fans in Rome and Paris have to be looking forward to the next month as they get to see Roger Federer back on the clay courts after a three year absence and those levels of excitement might be going through the roof judging by the reception the superstar had in Madrid. Roger Federer was cheered loudly throughout his win over Richard Gasquet as he played his first clay court match since losing to Nick Kyrgios here in 2016 as he looked to make the best decisions to extend his career.

To be fair to Federer those decisions have worked out as he has won a couple of Majors since then, but he admitted he missed playing on the red dirt. The knee issues which first made him think about giving up the clay portion of the season are behind him now and Federer looked like he had never been away when dismissing Gasquet in the Second Round.

It might have helped facing an opponent who had not played any tennis in a number of months, but that is not going to be the case on Thursday when Federer faces the enigmatic Gael Monfils.

The Frenchman will be looking to earn a measure of revenge for his compatriot and he showed some heart by coming from a set down to beat Marton Fucsovics in the Second Round. It was an impressive win over an ever improving player and Monfils will have been given a real shot of confidence for finding his way after a very poor opening set.

However Monfils has been needing his return of serve to be firing at a very strong level for him to come through his matches and I think that is not going to be easy for him against Federer. Everyone knows how good the Federer serve can be and that is the same case even on the clay, while the conditions in Madrid do tend to favour him even more than those in Rome and Paris.

The return of serve is perhaps in decline which is preventing Federer from being as dominant as he once was, but he should enjoy facing a Monfils serve which is being held at 74% of the time on the clay courts in 2019. That number is from a small sample, but Monfils had the same number in 2018 and I do think Federer is going to have enough chances to win this match and also cover the number.

The last time Federer and Monfils met in a professional match also came on the clay, but it was back in 2015. In their six previous clay matches Federer has held 87% of his service games while Monfils has held 72% of his own. Those numbers are pretty similar to their overall numbers on the surface and I will look for Federer to win and get the better of this spread.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: If you're a fan of tennis you are going to appreciate what you are seeing whenever Simona Halep and Ashleigh Barty meet on the court. Both players may not be the tallest or the strongest on the Tour, but they have plenty of pop off the ground and can play the kind of defence that is going to frustrate the life out of opponents.

Both players are also going to be tough to beat on the clay courts if their current form is anything to go by. Simona Halep might be the best clay courter in the world as far as the WTA side of the Tour goes and the defending French Open Champion is laying down a marker for her rivals with the way she has dismantled the three players she has faced so far in Madrid.

Only Johanna Konta got really close to pushing Halep, but the second set was a breeze for the Romanian who has won four of her six sets so far this week by scores of 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0.

Ashleigh Barty is continuing to push her way up the World Rankings and the top ten Ranked Australian is not going to be offering as little resistance as Halep faced in those sets. She fought back from a set down to win her last match and Barty has not dropped more than two games in any of the six sets she has won in Madrid. The only difference is that Barty has lost two sets on her way through the draw compared with Halep's run of straight sets wins and I do think that there is a clear difference between the abilities of these players on the clay.

Where Barty is a very good clay court player, Halep is exceptional and I think that makes the difference in what should be a fun match. The former World Number 1 is winning 60% of return points so far this week which is 10% higher than what Barty has been able to do and I do think this is a match that will feature a number of breaks of serve with both players having success.

However I do have a little more trust in Simona Halep being able to break in a couple of games more than Barty over the course of this match. In their head to heads it is Halep who leads 2-1 and she has created more break points in all three of those matches. The surface should favour her even more than those three previous hard court matches and Ashleigh Barty is 0-5 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the red dirt.

The Australian has only taken one set in those defeats and I am looking for Halep to produce a big performance to move into yet another Semi Final in Madrid.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 12-4, + 13.40 Units (32 Units Staked, + 41.88% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 28th)

I only had the one Tennis Pick on Wednesday and Simona Halep's strong run of five games in a row to close out the match enabled that selection to be returned as a winner.

On Thursday we have two remaining ATP Quarter Final matches to be played as well as both WTA Semi Final matches on the last really busy day at the Miami Masters. The new surroundings have looked decent on the television of the limited tennis I have managed to see over the last ten days, but I am going to be interested to hear how the players feel and that should be much clearer in the weeks ahead.

There have been some fresh new faces reaching the business end of the tournament, but I am not sure that is down to the conditions as much as how the draw has panned out. Some of those faces are also players that look set to be at the start of very promising careers too, but the breakdown of the Miami event will be there for all to see soon.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: The rain in Miami meant Roger Federer's Fourth Round match against Daniil Medvedev had to be postponed until Wednesday. He did manage to move past the youngster in efficient manner, but Federer is going to have had little rest compared with opponent Kevin Anderson who won his Fourth Round match against Jordan Thompson on Tuesday.

I am not anticipating that being a big problem for Federer and I do think the Swiss player is going to be able to get past Anderson for a place in the Semi Final of the Miami Masters. I also am expecting Federer to do that in relatively serene fashion and backing him to cover a number I thought would potentially be at least one game higher.

The most famous match played between Federer and Anderson clearly occurred at Wimbledon last summer when the South African was able to rally from 0-2 down in sets for a stunning win in the Quarter Final. It was just one of those days for Federer who had the chances to win the match on multiple occasions, and I do think this is a match up that hasn't really bothered him too much.

An element of revenge was exacted by Federer in the ATP World Tour Finals in November when he proved to be an easy winner over Anderson and that also improved his record to 4-0 against the big man on the hard courts. In those matches Anderson has only held serve in 58% of his games which is a remarkably low number for someone used to holding in the high 80's as a percentage.

He has not been able to get into the Federer service games either with the former World Number 1 winning almost 75% of the points behind his own serve. I don't think Anderson is going to improve that much against Federer in Miami considering how well the latter has been serving in 2019 in general and in this tournament, while Federer's return game has been much improved over the last month at Indian Wells and here which gives him every chance of covering this spread.

Kevin Anderson has some impressive numbers in his return to the Tour having not played since the Australian Open, but this is a step up by a considerable margin from having played Jaume Munar, Joao Sousa and Jordan Thompson. With a historically bad match up in front of him, I think Anderson is going to have a hard time keeping Federer off of him and I think the latter will find the breaks of serve he needs to win this match and cover this number.

Federer has broken in just under 25% of the return games played over the last month on the hard courts and his strong performances against Anderson suggests he can make enough balls in play to find those breaks in this one too.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Backing up a big win like the one Ashleigh Barty had over Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final is going to be a tough task, but the Australian has become used to playing and winning matches at the top tournaments and that should put her in a good position to earn a spot in this Premier Event Final.

Recovering from dropping the second set to breeze through a third shows Barty is now very much amongst the best players on the Tour, although the clay court season is going to present a different test for her in the weeks ahead. However Barty has shown an all around improvement in her game over the last twelve months and I fully expect her to crack the top 10 and keep moving up the World Rankings.

Winning the title in Miami would be a huge boost of confidence for Barty and she should have a little too much for Anett Kontaveit who has battled her way through to the Semi Final.

The Estonian has really had to battle after needing three sets to win three matches in the tournament while the other saw Bianca Andreescu forced to retire in the second set. Those wins have been close affairs too and Kontaveit has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent so far in the tournament.

Matches against the top 10 players on the hard courts have been tough throughout her career and I think Kontaveit is going to have to up her level significantly if she is going to win this match against someone soon to join those Rankings. So far Kontaveit has returned very well in the tournament, but Barty has an edge on that side of her game and also seems to be serving at a higher level too.

This is a big number considering the power that Kontaveit has and the ability she has to hit through the court, but Barty's defensive skills should be a frustration to her too. The conditions are generally slower in Miami and I think that will allow Barty to switch from attack to defence and vice versa much better than her opponent and lead to a strong looking win on the day.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Miami Update: 7-3, + 5.82 Units (20 Units Staked, + 29.10% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 27th)

Tuesday was a little more frustrating than Monday, but these things happen and I am not going to be negative about a week which is still producing a positive return.

The Miami Masters has reached the business end of the tournament with the WTA Premier Event Semi Final line up being put together by the end of Wednesday and the first of the ATP Masters Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.

There are five matches scheduled to be played on Wednesday as we get down to the final few days of the first half of the hard court season. The next hard court events on the main Tour will be played at the end of July when we will begin the run towards the US Open, and many players exiting in Miami will be heading to Europe and beginning preparation for the clay court season which will begin next week.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Qiang Wang: Winning two matches to reach a Premier Event Quarter Final is rare, but that is the case for Qiang Wang who has benefited from Serena Williams being forced to withdraw from the tournament in Miami. Wins over Johanna Konta and Yafan Wang have come in straight sets, but this is a step up for Wang against a player who is chasing to return to World Number 1 ahead of her favourite time of the season.

Simona Halep is a quality operator on the hard courts, but I don't think it is wrong to suggest that the clay courts are her favoured surface. The two month run to the French Open begins at the end of this week, but Halep has remained very consistent and can return to World Number 1 if she wins the title in Miami after Naomi Osaka's early exit.

The Romanian has dropped one set in three matches so far this week and Halep dominated Venus Williams in a comfortable win. This is a match in which the Halep serve will be tested, but she is returning very well in the conditions in Miami which may suit her game and I think that returning ability is going to put Qiang Wang under some pressure.

I have no doubt that Wang is an improved player, but she has yet to really put wins together against the very best players on the WTA Tour on the hard courts. A 10-10 record against top 20 opponents on this surface over the last fifteen months isn't horrible, but her numbers have taken a big dent compared to her overall hard court ones when she has been in those matches.

You can't completely draw a line through Wang considering her own ability to return serve, but I do thinK Simona Halep has an edge over her on that side of her game. I expect that will show up in this match and I can see Halep edging Wang out with at least one more break of serve in each set of a straight sets win and I think she is worth backing to cover the slightly smaller spread being offered by a couple of layers.

The odds are reflected in that smaller handicap, but I like Halep in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-3, + 4.38 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.33% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 26th)

It's good to be back.

A small break between the end of the Indian Wells Masters and the start of the second week at the Miami Masters recharged the batteries and the opening selections from this tournament could not really have gone much better.

Six Picks were made on Monday, five are in as winners as I write this although the last has made a miserable start.

It's still a start I appreciate and hopefully gives me a foundation on which to build another winning week from the Tennis Picks on the Tour. In 2019 I have only had the sole losing week so far and that is reflected in the extremely positive season totals ahead of the clay court season beginning.

The season is a long one and the turnaround in the middle of 2018 to end up with a winning record on that season shows things can change very quickly if not focusing on the task at hand.

I'm not looking at November, but taking things day by day, week by week and hopefully that will lead to a lot more winners than losers.


On Tuesday the entire Fourth Round of the ATP Masters event is set to be played and the first half of the WTA Premier Event Quarter Final matches are also scheduled for what has been a wet Miami at times.

Hopefully we are not going to see the same kind of delays that affected Monday's play.

Below you can see the selections made from the matches set to be played on Tuesday and at the end of it I am hoping more positive numbers have been added to the week's totals.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: For the third time in 2019 we are going to see Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty meet on the hard courts and I think it is going to be the player from the Czech Republic who will continue her dominance over this opponent.

Both of the matches in 2019 have been won by Kvitova Down Under where Barty would have been receiving a lot of support. The Australian remains a very popular figure, but I think the crowd split will be a lot more even and that should give Kvitova even more time to settle on her shots.

The two players have both produced solid performances this week to move through to this Quarter Final, but I still worry about Barty's mentality in these big matches. There is no doubting the talent she clearly possesses, but Barty has regularly struggled to put away top 10 opponents and I do think she needs to be a little more ruthless on the court.

While others will get louder and more 'in your face', Barty tries to play a calm game and I am not sure that helps in the critical moments. One of the strengths of the Barty game is the aggressive return, but this match up makes it more difficult for her against a big server like Kvitova and I do think that is where the multiple time Grand Slam Winner is able to come through against Barty.

Ashleigh Barty has been playing the more eye-catching tennis so far this week in Miami, but Petra Kvitova has looked strong too. The two players are both seeing the ball big enough to get a lot of joy out of the return of serve and I think the narrow edge on the serve is in Kvitova's favour which means I do think she can make it three wins in a row over Barty in the 2019 season.

Confidence is not going to be an issue for either, but I believe Kvitova has the stronger mentality in this one and I think that will see her edge out Barty in what could be a very good Quarter Final.


Felix Auger Aliassime v Nikoloz Basilashvili: One of these players will be an unexpected Quarter Finalist at the Miami Masters and give their World Ranking a real boost with the points they can earn. Not many would have picked Felix Auger Aliassime or Nikoloz Basilashivili to get to the Fourth Round, but both have been deserving of their place and will have full belief that this is a winnable match for them.

Felix Auger Aliassime is starting to make waves on the Tour as he has reached a career high World Ranking prior to the tournament beginning. The decision to play in clay court events over the last few weeks has not affected his confidence to produce on the hard courts and he has battled through the Qualifiers in Miami to make the main draw before winning three matches.

He has needed three sets to overcome three of the five opponents he has beaten in the event, but the day off between matches should mean the 18 year old is not suffering from any lingering fatigue. The numbers in the Miami Masters have been similar to what Auger Aliassime has been producing throughout 2019 on the hard courts and that bodes well for him as it does not feel like he is overachieving to make it through to the Fourth Round.

A strong 85% number of holds of serve in the tournament are being backed up by very good returning and Auger Aliassime is going to be tough to knock off at his current standards.

Nikoloz Basilashvili will feel he can do that having won his opening two matches very well in the tournament. He is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings these days, but I can't help feel the Georgian is playing above his level to be in this position and it is not one I feel he is going to hold for a long time barring a significant improvement.

He is having a strong tournament, but Basilashvili's overall percentage of hold of serves on the hard courts is down at 79% in 2019 and that is about where he has been in recent years. In this event he is up to 85% of holds, but I expect his young opponent to test that number.

Basilashvili is a decent enough returner, but this is another area in which I have to give Auger Aliassime the advantage and I think it is going to lead to a win for the Canadian. It might be a close match though and I am not going to play any handicap but simply look for Auger Aliassime to find a way past an opponent who is perhaps overachieving on the World Rankings.

Within a year I would perhaps even think these two players will pass each other on those Rankings and the improving Auger Aliassime is my pick.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Update: 5-1, + 6.72 Units (12 Units Staked, + 56% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 25th)

So I haven't made any Tennis Picks since the end of Indian Wells and that is very much down to being away from the United Kingdom and just taking a bit of time to reset.

I can't really complain about the performance of the Tennis Picks as another winning week was put on the board and it honestly felt like being my first winning tournament from Indian Wells in forever

The decision to get away between Indian Wells and the second week in Miami beginning was made a long time ago and very much down to one simple factor- the international break in Football which meant not missing any Manchester United games.

I've a patient partner to say the least.


This week is going to be a busy one for the blog- there should be Tennis Picks daily from the remainder of the Miami tournament and I am going to update season totals before the clay season begins in Charleston next week and kicks into overdrive heading towards the French Open at the end of May.

I will also be posting the next Fantasy Football post and thoughts from the weekend Premier League action on Friday as we hit the first Double GameWeek of the season. Plenty of points are up for grabs so mini-Leagues are not lost for those playing and I've been on a pretty good roll when it comes to selecting key players.

And finally the week is going to be rounded off with the next set of Boxing selections.


First things first is the Tennis from Miami and the continuing rise of Bianca Andreescu is creating headlines for the WTA as she backs up her title win in Indian Wells with a strong run here. It is a loaded field entering the Fourth Round which is completed on Monday, while the ATP Masters Fourth Round line up is completed on the same day.

The shift to the clay courts will then be welcomed by some of the players on the Tour and others less so, but it is one of my favourite times of the season and I am hoping to have a strong part of the year to really set 2019 up to becoming a top one for the selections.


Below you can read the analysis of a couple of the matches being played on Monday and full selections can then be seen in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: I am going against one of my more recent rules on Monday in the ATP Masters Third Round and that is backing Roger Federer to cover more than a four game handicap in a best of three set match on a hard court.

The spot has to be very much the reason for it and I do think it is a good place for Federer to continue the roll from Indian Wells and especially after coming through a tough Second Round match. The former World Number 1 needed three sets to get past a much improved Radu Albot and it is clear that Federer is not the force of old, especially when it comes to the return of serve.

That makes this kind of spread a difficult one for him to cover in my opinion, although Federer is playing an opponent who had difficulty holding serve against him in their two meetings on a hard court in 2018. The second match was much tougher for Federer, but the latter has been serving at a very high level throughout 2019 and it is the ability to break the Filip Krajinovic serve that should give him a chance to win and cover.

It won't be too long before Krajinovic is back approaching his peak World Ranking of Number 28 which was achieved eleven months ago, but injuries have knocked him out of the top 100. That hasn't stopped him producing some strong results and the run to the Indian Wells Fourth Round coupled with winning two matches in Miami will have built the confidence.

There is no doubting what a dangerous player Krajinovic can be and his numbers are strong on the hard courts for 2019 and very similar to the level he was producing in 2017 before an injury hit 2018. However this is a step up to a level he has not been used to playing and last week we saw Krajinovic struggle to get into the Rafael Nadal service games in Indian Wells.

Now he has to face an opponent holding almost 95% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and that is going to make it very difficult for the Serbian to get his teeth into this match. I do think he has the talent to test Federer, but this could be a comfortable match up for the latter in terms of the type of tennis he is facing from the other side of the net.

Over the last two weeks Federer has shown a little more out of his return game too and I think that can see him cover this number at odds against. I would not back him at odds on with these kinds of spreads because so much is determined by the coin toss at the start of the match, but Federer should have the majority of break point chances and the superior serving should give him a chance to put pressure on Krajinovic and find the breaks of serve needed to cover.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Two of the bright young talents of the ATP Tour meet in the Miami Masters Third Round on Monday and it has the makings of being a really good watch.

The higher Ranked player going into this match is Denis Shapovalov who is getting close to reaching a new career high World Ranking and eyeing up a spot in the top 20. His game is a dynamic one, although there is no doubt the teenager is still looking for the consistency to challenge the very best out there.

He faces Andrey Rublev who had been close to dropping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to a series of injuries that had seen his form drop away from levels he had displayed on the Tour. Coming through two Qualifiers is always a confidence booster and Rublev has also upset Marin Cilic on his way through the Miami draw, while the hard court numbers have improved with a run to the Indian Wells Final in a Challenger event at the same site as the Masters event is played.

Rublev is the superior returner in this match, but there have been definite signs that Shapovalov is improving that side of his game all the time. A better conversion rate of the break points will help the young Canadian, but he should also have a real edge when it comes to the serve and I feel that is going to make the difference on the day in what looks a close match to call.

In the last month Shapovalov has been creating more break points than he has been allowing and Rublev's 73% hold percentage on the hard courts at the main ATP level is not really going to be good enough. He might have more success playing a returner like Shapovalov, but the improvement mentioned means Rublev will have to deal with the pressurised moments if he is going to earn the upset.

Confidence that has been built up by Rublev can't be ignored and he did win their previous head to head. That caame in the ATP Next Gen Finals at the end of 2017, but the rules are different and even on that day Shapovalov had a host of break point chances that slipped through his fingers.

As long as he can be a little more clinical when the chances come his way, I think Shapovalov can win and cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Masters Day 10 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 15th)

The business end of the Indian Wells tournament has been reached as we are down to the Semi Finals in the Premier Event being played by the girls and we complete the Semi Final line up for the boys.

Two of the biggest names in the history of Tennis take to the court in the Masters event being played as both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are scheduled to go on Friday. Both are considered strong favourites to progress to a potential Semi Final meeting against each other on Saturday and that has to be the match the fans will be desperate to see.

While the majority of players may already have moved across to the East Coast in preparation for the tournament in Miami beginning in a few days time, I am concentrating on finishing this tournament off with a flourish and you can read the Friday selections below.


Bianca Andreescu v Elina Svitolina: The first of the WTA Semi Finals that have been put together features two players who have been in strong form in 2019 meeting.

The performances being produced by Elina Svitolina won't be a huge surprise considering she has been one of the top players on the WTA Tour for a couple of seasons now. Two Semi Final losses and one Quarter Final defeat would be considered strong returns by most players on the Tour, but for some Svitolina might still be considered an underachiever as she plays in her third Semi Final of 2019 on the hard courts and bids for her first Final of the season.

While any player that can put the wins together to reach the Semi Final has to be respected, Svitolina has not had an easy path through the draw. She has shown considerable resilience in winning three of her four matches in three sets and Svitolina has come from a set down in two of those wins which has to give her real confidence.

However the numbers have been far from dominating and the Svitolina serve has been attacked with some success by opponents. The Ukrainian has allowed at least nine break points in each of her matches so far at Indian Wells and the time she has spent on court in the last two Rounds has to be a concern even with the Thursday break from being on the court.

Now she faces the promising youngster Bianca Andreescu who at 18 years old is making hay on the main Tour in 2019. The Canadian turns 19 later this year, but she has showed plenty of maturity in her wins so far at Indian Wells including a stunning 52 minute win over Garbine Muguruza in the Quarter Final.

Strong performances behind the first serve and a successful return have propelled Andreescu through the draw and it will be hard to stop her if she can maintain the standards set. I do think she can drag Elina Svitolina into another battle and at that point Andreescu is going to go into this match with the superior fitness that can be relied upon down the stretch.

It is a big match for the youngster and that could lead to a tense performance, but she has shown plenty of belief in her own game. As long as Bianca Andreescu can stay in the moment, I think she may have a little more in the tank to beat Elina Svitolina in a tight match and backing her as the underdog is the pick here.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: I haven't backed Rafael Nadal so far this week, but that is going to change in the Quarter Final despite the Spaniard being asked to cover a big number against talented Karen Khachanov.

I've long felt the conditions in Indian Wells would the most perfect of the hard courts for Rafael Nadal and he is going for his fourth title here over the next few days. It is one of the slower hard courts on the Tour and Nadal does appreciate the bounce he gets off it and also the spin he can generate to put opponents in a tough position.

This match will be a test of the Nadal game as he has previously had a couple of tough matches against Karen Khachanov on the hard courts over the last nine months. One of those matches came at the Canadian Masters and the other at the US Open in 2018 and while Nadal has had strong serving numbers, he has not been able to get on top of the Khachanov serve as he would have liked.

In both matches Khachanov was able to play the big points very well which kept him competitive against Nadal and he is going to have to need to do the same in this Quarter Final on Friday. The 2019 performances have been decent from Khachanov, but he has been in stronger form here in Indian Wells and that has seen him improve his numbers both on the serve and return.

All of those aspects of the Khachanov game are going to be tested by Rafael Nadal who has been in elite form on the hard courts in 2019. He has been loving his time in Indian Wells where he has broken in 50% of return games played and Nadal's new service action has continued to be remarkably successful for the Spaniard.

It will be interesting to see how long Nadal can keep up the service numbers he is producing on this surface, but it certainly gives him a chance to win tournaments on the hard courts. He should believe the serve can give him a real chance to beat out Karen Khachanov who has struggled in his career when it comes to the return of serve against top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface, especially if Nadal is returning as effectively as he is.

There is no doubt this is a big number considering how close their two matches on the hard courts were last summer. However I think Nadal is playing at a very good level at the moment and his return can cause Khachanov enough problems to break down the youngster and move through to the Semi Final.


Belinda Bencic v Angelique Kerber: A tough Quarter Final match could have potentially taken something out of the legs for Belinda Bencic who had to battle hard physically and mentally to see off Karolina Pliskova. On another day it would have been a lot more comfortable, but Bencic was guilty of missing a host of break point chances in the second and third set which left the match on a knife edge until the very end.

Ultimately the 'Swiss Miss' continued her roll to move to 12-0 since the start of February and the confidence is flowing as she is could finish close to the top 10 in the World Rankings if she is able to add the Indian Wells tournament to the one she won in Dubai. It would be a deserved Ranking as Pliskova became the latest player currently in the top 10 of the World Rankings to be beaten by Bencic in the last month and now she has a chance to add yet another from that list to her vanquished list on Friday.

This time Bencic has to take on Angelique Kerber who saw off veteran Venus Williams in straight sets in her own Quarter Final on Thursday. It was another solid win for Kerber, although she may have to step up her game another level when taking on Bencic having had to dig in deep to come through a couple of tough matches already at the event.

The Kerber serve has been working well so far in the tournament which may be a surprise considering the slower conditions. However it is an important part of her game and gives the German confidence to go on the offensive on the return and winning just under 50% of return points will give you the chance to win most matches when serving competently.

I do think it is a different test for Kerber against Bencic though who has been returning wonderfully so far in the tournament. She has won a slightly higher percentage of return points at 51% and the Bencic first serve has been a key weapon for her.

A couple of disadvantages have to be overcome by Bencic and the main one is the time she spent on court on Thursday compared with Kerber. However in general she has not been leaving too much energy out there and I do think she is a worthy favourite in this match and one I am happy to back for a third time this week having gone 2-0 in Bencic matches so far.

I have a lot of time for Kerber too who beat Bencic at Wimbledon last year on her way to winning another Grand Slam, but playing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been a challenge for her over the last twelve months. The three wins here have taken her above 0.500 for those matches at 14-13 in win-loss terms, but Kerber is now playing against someone in great form and she has not really been as dominant in these types of matches as she would like.

Belinda Bencic can be backed to win, although again I will go with a straight win and not worry too much about the manner of her win.

MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 24-19, + 7.10 Units (86 Units Staked, + 8.26% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Day 9 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 14th)

Wednesday proved to be a much better day for the Tennis Picks which had been dented by a poor Tuesday and two winners from two selections at odds against will always be welcomed.

We are now down to the final four days at Indian Wells before we have a slight break between this tournament ending and the Miami Masters beginning next week.


On Day 9 at Indian Wells we have four Quarter Final matches to play with two coming from the ATP Masters event and the other two coming from the WTA Premier Event which has already produced one Semi Final. At this stage of the tournament there is more information as to what kind of level players are performing at in this specific event as well as their overall numbers and it is the time to bring in additional factors to the selections.

Either way I am looking to produce another couple of winners to keep this tournament rolling back towards a strong return for the event and adding to what has been a very good start to 2019 as we almost complete a third month of the season.


Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils: Two players who have been getting stronger and stronger through their matches at Indian Wells are meeting in the Quarter Final of what has become a very open top half of the draw. Novak Djokovic's defeat means there is a real chance for one of the four remaining players in the top half to reach the Indian Wells Final and put some very strong Ranking points on the board.

I have to feel that both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are feeling very good about their level heading into this Quarter Final. They have looked better and better in each passing match and that has seen them produce some stellar numbers at the tournament which have to be respected.

They have dropped one set between them so far through three matches won and the service numbers have sparked their success. Dominic Thiem has held 93% of his service games in the tournament, while Gael Monfils is up at 86% and those numbers have allowed them to get into their return games with confidence as they can take one or two chances knowing their own serves are not offering up a lot of opportunities for opponents to break.

Both players have faced just ten break points across three matches, but it is Monfils who has been producing the stronger return numbers which has contributed to him being the favourite here. The Frenchman has broken in 50% of return games here, while Thiem has broken in 35% of return games and that is where this match is going to be won and lost as far as I am concerned.

However, Thiem's numbers are strong enough to think the underdog can show some bite in this Quarter Final. I also think the 4-0 head to head in favour of the Austrian can play a part here even if Thiem and Monfils have not played each other in the last twelve months as those head to heads showed that Thiem seems to match up very well with this opponent.

These two players met twice on the hard courts between August 2016 and March 2017 and it was Thiem who won both matches. In those he had the stronger returning numbers by some margin and that includes a relatively straight-forward win over him here in Indian Wells two years ago.

I have to credit for Monfils for opening 2019 in stronger fashion than Thiem who had a surprisingly disappointing South American Golden Swing on the clay, but the match up intrigues me. While the Frenchman is playing as close to his best tennis as you could imagine, I think Thiem will have built some confidence through his three wins here and he can just edge out the serving battle on a surface and conditions that should be most to the Austrian's liking.


Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: In the last couple of years we have had some new names winning Grand Slam titles on the WTA side of things including fresh, young faces kicking on overall on the Tour. The main name that stands out is Naomi Osaka, but Belinda Bencic may feel that only injuries have held her back from moving to the top of the women's game herself.

Back injuries and other physical ailments have prevented Bencic from building on entering the top 10 of the World Ranking as an 18 year old, but 2019 has begun in a manner much more to what is expected of the now 22 year old 'Swiss Miss'.

While the World Ranking says Bencic is not a top 20 player, her performances over the last month are propelling her up the standings at a rate of knots. Continue in this vain and she is going to crack her career best World Number 7 Ranking before too long and Bencic has been winning matches against some of the best players on the Tour.

Bencic won the title in Dubai and showed her resilience in beating four consecutive top 10 Ranked opponents to earn the title. Any drop off in Indian Wells has not been witnessed as Bencic cruised through the first couple of matches here and then crushed World Number 1 Naomi Osaka in the Fourth Round to reach the Quarter Final.

In the last month Bencic has beaten the World Numbers 1, 2, 4, 6 and 9 and on Thursday she takes on World Number 5 Karolina Pliskova who is enjoying a bounce back year on the hard courts. The Czech player has a title from the first week of the 2019 Tour and has reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and her play has been steady so far this week to come through the draw.

The first serve has proven to be a huge weapon for Pliskova as expected, but she is also returning a little above her numbers for the 2019 in general. However it is the second serve that is likely to be attacked by Bencic who is not moving behind the baseline, but standing firm and competing with some of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour.

Like Pliskova, Bencic is relying on strong numbers on the first serve to protect what has been a vulnerable second serve. She is returning even better than Pliskova though and I do think Bencic's ability to make enough balls back in play and counter attack with some strong groundstrokes is going to give her the slight edge in this first meeting between these two players.

The Swiss superstar is 11-0 since the beginning of February and her numbers have been strong. While she may need three sets to edge out Pliskova, Bencic can do enough to win this match.

I won't ask her to cover the small number because it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the set Pliskova wins is enough to get within the number with Bencic winning two tight sets. Belinda Bencic has beaten five of the current top 10 in the last month, but she would have only covered the 1.5 handicap set for this match on two occasions and so I will just look for the talented player to find a way to win this match however she can do it.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 23-19, + 5.60 Units (84 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Day 7 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 12th)

More winners have been put into the books at Indian Wells on Monday and that is keeping the week moving in a positive direction.

On Tuesday the Third Round of the ATP Masters event is completed, while the entire Fourth Round of the WTA Premier Event is set to be played on one day. The temperatures look like they are going to take an upswing and that is going to change the conditions in Indian Wells for the players who have been used to playing in a much cooler environment.

It could have a real impact on how much the players are able to hit through the court in the days ahead and it is something to consider when you make you picks for the remainder of this tournament.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: In each passing week you can see the improvement that Daniil Medvedev is making in his game and it is important for him to keep racking up the World Ranking points ahead of the clay court portion of the season. The young Russian player is yet to produce his best on the clay, but he can put himself into a position to be Ranked highly at the big events coming up which in turn should place him in a strong position to have a real go when it comes to Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.

He has reached a career high World Ranking last month and Medvedev is continuing to edge closer to a top ten Ranking for the first time, but this Third Round match should be a challenge for him. Injuries have hurt Filip Krajinovic over the last twelve months, but the Serbian is playing with real confidence at the moment and should offer up some real resistance to Medvedev.

It is never easy to face a Qualifier like Krajinovic who is very happy in the conditions, especially as he was also playing in the Challenger event held here last week. He has managed to put four wins on the board already at this Masters event which should see Krajinovic return to the top 100 in the Rankings, and he has produced back to back strong wins over top 50 Ranked opponents including another over David Goffin having already beaten the Belgian earlier this season.

Filip Krajinovic is producing some solid numbers and it is the return of serve which has proven to be very important for him. In each of the last four years he has shown improvement on the return and in 2019 he is breaking in just under 30% of the return games played on the hard courts which will give anyone a strong chance of putting a run of wins together.

You would imagine those numbers take a dent when playing the higher Ranked opponents, but that has not been the case and so Krajinovic has to be respected here.

However, Daniil Medvedev has been playing at a very high level and even a couple of back to back losses in Rotterdam and Dubai have not dented the numbers he is producing. His serve has remained strong with an almost 85% hold rate on the hard courts in both 2018 and so far in 2019, but Medvedev has upped the break percentage and that makes him a player that could take the next step in his career as he continues to improve.

It should prove to be the difference in this match too as Medvedev holds serve a little more regularly than Krajinovic and can actually match the return numbers that the latter has produced. This could be a rare hard court match with a few more breaks of serve between two ATP players as the slower conditions in Indian Wells does make it a little more difficult for the servers, but Medvedev should have the edge.

All credit to Krajinovic for putting the wins together, but the run could end here.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: In recent years Marin Cilic has been one of the top players on the Tour and in the last couple of years he has come very close to adding to the US Open Grand Slam title he has won. A couple of Grand Slam Final defeats and deep runs in others have seen the Croatian come close to becoming a multiple time Grand Slam Champion, but 2019 has begun with a little more difficulty for him.

His numbers are down across the board in 2019 compared with 2018 heading into this Third Round match at Indian Wells, but Cilic remains a strong server and that does put pressure on opponents. There is a real will to win that still burns inside of Cilic and that is why he is still producing a winning record, but he could be more vulnerable in matches like this one than he has been in previous years.

The service numbers are slightly down on last season, but Cilic has still been holding at a strong rate and I think those will improve if he can get his returning back on track. While still winning plenty of points off the opponent's serve, Cilic has perhaps not been as clinical at finishing off the break points as he has been in previous years and I do think that is going to be something that can be worked out by the Croatian.

On Tuesday he faces the young star Denis Shapovalov although I think the Canadian is going to have to up his game if he is going to challenge someone as good as Cilic can be.

Denis Shapovalov has been in mixed form on the hard courts in 2019 and I do think that is something of a surprise as you would feel this is one of his better surfaces. The court in Indian Wells is arguably one of the tougher courts for Shapovalov to play on, but he did have a solid win over Steve Johnson in the Second Round which may give him a boost of confidence to take into this match.

His overall numbers on the hard courts have been solid in 2019, but Shapovalov has not really been able to pick it up when he has faced a top 50 Ranked opponent. Before this week he had lost all four matches in that situation and his service hold percentage drops from 83% down to 75%, while his break percentage falls from 19% to 15%.

Those numbers are not too dissimilar to his 2018 ones and I do think this is a tough match up for Shapovalov with Cilic's long levers meaning he can get a few more balls back in play than the youngster may think. When they met on an indoor hard court at the end of 2018 Cilic dominated on the return and I think he is going to have the edge in this one too.

I really thought he would have been a game bigger favourite on the handicap so I will back Cilic in this spot to move through to the Fourth Round.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: Any player who comes through the Qualifiers and can work their way to the Third Round in these ATP Masters events has to be respected, but Radu Albot's confidence may be even higher than those who have done that previously.

You would say the draw has been pretty kind to Albot so far this week, but it is up to players to take advantage and he has backed up what has been a strong 2019 so far. The Moldovan hit a career high World Ranking at the end of February which came about after he won the Delray Beach title, while Albot has already reached the Semi Final in Marseille.

Those wins have come in tournaments that have featured some big names and I do think Albot deserves the respect he is being given by the layers. The numbers are up on the serve and that has been important for Albot as it has given him a chance to put his decent returning skills to good use instead of trying to play catch up in matches.

However I do think you have to note the performances against the top 50 Ranked opponents even though Albot has a 3-2 record on the hard courts in those matches. His service numbers dip closer to his general numbers from previous seasons and Albot has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I do think think both elements of his game will be tested by Kyle Edmund.

The British Number 1 took a few weeks off after the Australian Open as he was perhaps suffering with a knock or two that needed to be shaken off. A lack of competitive tennis would have been a concern going into the Indian Wells Masters, but a good decision to take in the Challenger event here last week has paid off with Edmund going on to win the title.

Confidence should not be a problem and that was evident in his Second Round match against Nicolas Jarry when Edmund dropped just two games on his way through to this match. Improving the return of serve is the key for Edmund if he is going to take the next step in his career, and so far he has been strong on that side of his game in 2019 although Edmund has yet to really play some of the top names on the Tour.

The serve could be a big weapon for Edmund and he has solid hold numbers over the last couple of years which I think can be used to pressure Albot in this Third Round match. It could open up some chances on the return, although I don't like dismissing Albot easily with the way he has been playing in the last six weeks.

However I do think Edmund is comfortable in the conditions and he has shown an ability to play on the slower surfaces which should not frustrate him in Indian Wells. The wind has died down somewhat from earlier this week and the temperatures should not be too bad, while the humidity is something Edmund has dealt with in his time here over the last couple of weeks.

It is going to be tight on the numbers, but I do think Edmund can keep his Indian Wells run going and just edge out Albot over the course of this match.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: I wanted to write very few words about this match rather than placing it in the 'MY PICKS' section below.

I know I've wrote about Roger Federer and not wanting to back him to cover at 4.5 games and higher because of a return game that has been lacking the kind of punch you would want, but coming down one game is more reasonable for him.

In that situation he might not have to break as many as three times as he may have to do for a 4.5 game handicap if the coin toss goes against him. Now it is a chance for Federer to cover with a single break of serve, especially against someone who is serving as big as Wawrinka has been in 2019.

The problem for Stan Wawrinka is the awful head to head with Federer on the hard courts while his own return of serve numbers have not really recovered to the level he had prior to his injury. A couple of loose service games, which can be a feature of a Wawrinka performance, may be enough for Federer to win and cover in this Third Round match and I think the former World Number 1 can do that.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The first thing I have noticed about Anett Kontaveit this week is that she looks to be in about as good a physical shape as I remember. At first glance I didn't even recognise her and it could see Kontaveit become a player that begins to fulfil the obvious potential she has with a big game that can be tough for opponents to deal with when she is in form.

Inconsistencies need to be erased if Kontaveit is really going to get in amongst the very best players on the Tour, but she looks like being in a position to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of Indian Wells. Putting another win on the board by upsetting Karolina Pliskova would almost certainly see her break inside the top 20 of the World Rankings but beating players already in those positions has not been something the Estonian has been able to do with any kind of regularity.

In very simple terms Kontaveit has not returned as well as she would have liked in those matches against the top players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on her to produce big serving days to stay competitive. The retirement of Anastasija Sevastova on Monday means Kontaveit is 4-7 in matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but the numbers indicate that the defeats have tended to be a little one-sided and the wins have been very tight.

Now she has to face Karolina Pliskova in the Fourth Round and this is a player that has enjoyed strong runs at Indian Wells in the last few years visiting. The Czech player has yet to go on and win the title, which would represent the biggest of her career, but Pliskova is going to be very difficult to stop this year as she has bounced back from an underwhelming 2018 on this surface.

A strong 15-3 record on the hard courts is impressive and the numbers have been good, although there is a slight concern about the fact that Pliskova has been involved in so many three set matches. While she has won a large majority of those, it is a tough way to continue to make a living and hope to win big titles.

It also makes it hard to really be confident in backing a player to cover more than a 2.5 game spread when they are being asked to win matches in the final set. However in this case I do think the Pliskova serve is going to be a huge weapon for her when you consider the problems Kontaveit has had in returning against top 20 Ranked players over the last twelve months.

If Pliskova can get enough first serves in play I do think it will be difficult for Kontaveit to really get her teeth into this match. It is especially tough if Pliskova can start to get a read on the Kontaveit serve and I think we will see the Czech player find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve attached to it.

That could be enough for her to cover here and I will back her to do that against a player who has lost seven matches to top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in the last twelve months. Six of those losses would have seen her fail to earn a cover with this start and I will look for the same to happen here.


Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Is this a passing of the torch moment between two players going in opposite directions as far as their careers go? That may be a touch harsh on 31 year old Angelique Kerber who has shown she can bounce back and win big titles even when off form and who is currently the defending Wimbledon Champion, but it does feel like Aryna Sabalenka is marching towards the top of the women's game.

There are some talented players ahead of the Belarusian in the Rankings and her window for success may not be that wide if she doesn't continue improving with some huge talents breaking through. Aryna Sabalenka went into the Australian Open as one of the favourites to win the title and was dismissed emphatically by one of those young talents, but she is young and looks to be improving all the time.

You can see those improvements from the numbers when you split up the last twelve months into three parts. Early on Sabalenka was not quite putting it all together, but by the back end of 2018 she was flying and has only seemingly gotten better in the first couple of months of 2019.

One concern for Sabalenka fans has to be the fact she has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts in 2019 and the two losses suffered have seen her fall away after dropping tight opening sets. That indicates the first set in this Fourth Round match is going to be very important for the younger player just to make sure she keeps her belief going.

Angelique Kerber is a superb defender and she can frustrate Sabalenka in their first match against each other, although the German has looked far from assured herself. Her general numbers on the hard courts have actually been strong, but Kerber has struggled when the competition has ramped up and I think that could be the case again.

Where Sabalenka has a winning record against top 20 players she has faced on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Kerber is 3-6 in those matches. She has not returned nearly as well as she would have liked and is capable of and that has put pressure on Kerber whose own serve can be a vulnerability when she is facing these kinds of big hitters like Sabalenka.

At her best Kerber could frustrate the life out of Sabalenka with an ability to get plenty of returns in play and defend the big hitting groundstrokes. I just don't think we have seen enough of Kerber at her best in these big matches over a prolonged period now and I will look for Sabalenka to record her biggest win of 2019 by edging out Kerber over three sets.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Qiang Wang @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 19-12, + 11.08 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.87% Yield)