Premier League Darts Night 8 Picks 2026 (Thursday 26th March)

The Premier League reaches the halfway mark of the Group Stage of the competition and that means the current Number 1 faces Number 8, Number 2 faces Number 7, etc etc.

Luke Littler picked up the Nightly win last Thursday and that has helped him close on Jonny Clayton and both look in a good spot to kick on and secure two of the four Play Off spots.

Only five points separate Number 3 Gerwyn Price and Number 7 Stephen Bunting and so there is still much to play for, while Josh Rock is just desperate for any win after another poor performance in Dublin.

Seeing Luke Humphries win the European Tour 3 event last weekend will give his fans plenty of reason to believe the defending Premier League Champion can kick on over the next two months and avoid an upset elimination in the Group Stage. He was clearly upset by some criticism of his 'aura' on the oche and the fact it was suggested he rolls over for Luke Littler, but Humphries used that to fuel him to a success and he will be targeting a second run to the Nightly Final on Night 8 of the tournament.

Nothing comes easy in the Premier League and the matches are being played out in Berlin this week, which may not be offering much encouragement for Luke Littler who tends to avoid playing in Germany at this stage of his career. That may change in the years ahead, but it makes Night 8 challenging for him and Luke Humphries is in the 'weaker' half as long as he can fight his way past Michael van Gerwen in the Quarter Final.

Jonny Clayton to win & most 180s v Josh Rock: Some Jonny Clayton fans may have been wondering how the Welshman would cope with a first Quarter Final loss in the 2026 Premier League on Night 7, but they had no need to be concerned.

He has been a consistent force on the Tour over the last twelve months and Clayton reached the Final of the Belgium Darts Open last weekend.

Confidence will be high, but it could not be any different for Josh Rock who lost in the Second Round in Belgium and has yet to win a single match in the Premier League. There is no doubting the quality of this player, but losses piling up can be very difficult to shake off and Josh Rock has really been struggling in the Premier League.

The Night 5 performance saw Josh Rock average over 100 in a narrow loss to Luke Littler, but he has been well beaten in the next two Premier League matches and averaged in the low 80s. That level is not going to cut the mustard when facing the kind of opponents Josh Rock meets every week in the Premier League and a heavy scoring Jonny Clayton can win this one and add another two points to his total.

Jonny Clayton continues to pile in plenty of maximums and that may see him complete the match double that his mate Gerwyn Price only just missed out last week in his whitewash of Rocky in the Quarter Final in Dublin.

Luke Humphries to win & most 180s v Michael van Gerwen: With two wins over this opponent already this month, Luke Humphries has to be confident of completing a hat-trick against Michael van Gerwen.

Neither of the last two wins have been in tough matches and Humphries is certainly playing with a lot more confidence than his opponent, even if the World Number 2 has room for improvement on the doubles.

He was better in the Belgian Darts Open success last weekend, which included a dominant Semi Final win over van Gerwen.

Three wins in Belgium will have done Michael van Gerwen the world of good as he looks to snap a four match losing run in the Premier League. After withdrawing from Night 3 with an illness, Michael van Gerwen has struggled to back up his strong start to the Premier League and Luke Humphries may have too much scoring for him again.

Luke Littler to win & most 180s v Stephen Bunting: It was far from his most impressive Nightly win in the Premier League and Luke Littler should have perhaps been beaten in the Semi Final and the Final, but he continues to find a way to win matches.

He was upset in the Third Round at the Belgium Darts Open last Sunday, which will give opponents some encouragement, while Night 8 of the Premier League is played in Berlin and everyone knows how much Littler dislikes playing in Germany.

The fans are going to try and rattle him, but Littler may still have enough to beat Stephen Bunting for a second Premier League week in a row.

Stephen Bunting averaged 104 to Littler's 105 in a defeat last week, but he may struggle to reach those levels again.

Last weekend, Stephen Bunting was beaten even earlier than Luke Littler and he has lost four matches in a row- the crowd will likely get behind him, but Littler's maximum hitting power can lead him through to a Semi Final here.

Gerwyn Price to win & most 180s v Gian van Veen: Unlike his fellow debutant, Gian van Veen was pretty comfortable in the Premier League setting in his first appearance in the tournament.

He started well enough, but the last month has been a bit more difficult with European Tour events beginning and a lot more darts than usual being played.

The form may already have slipped, but Gian van Veen is also only making his way back from a Kidney Stones operation having been forced to miss Night 7 in Dublin. He also dropped out of the European Tour 3 event and the Dutchman has admitted that he is not quite at full health right now.

This would have been a difficult match up if fully healthy, but a well rested Gerwyn Price is going to be even tougher to beat.

Night 7 ended in a strange way for Price- he had won seventeen of eighteen Legs played in Dublin and had cruised into a 5-0 lead over Luke Littler in the Final. Somehow he lost six Legs in a row to finish as Runner Up, but Gerwyn Price is considered one of the toughest players mentally on the Tour and he can take advantage of a weakened opponent.

They have met twice in the Premier League this season and both have one win apiece and eleven Legs won each.

However, Gian van Veen may need some time to get his rhythm back and this Quarter Final may be too soon after the operation last weekend.

With his maximum hitting continuing at a strong rate, the Ice Man can come through with the match double on Night 8.

MY PICKS: Jonny Clayton to Win & Most 180s @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Luke Humphries to Win & Most 180s @ 2.62 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Luke Littler to Win & Most 180s @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Gerwyn Price to Win & Most 180s @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 40-52, - 4.36 Units (89 Units Staked, - 4.90% Yield)

Miami Tennis Day 10 Picks 2026 (Thursday 26th March)

So what can you say about that match?

Tommy Paul has Break Points in the opening two returns games of the deciding set and then FOUR Match Points in the Tie-Breaker, all in succession, and still manages to lose?

That result is kind of how the last few days have been going at the Miami Masters with the fine edges now working against the selections. It means instead of a proper bounce back fortnight after Indian Wells, the target is simply to head away with a positive return from the tournament and hoping the bounces begin to fall inside our lines, rather than just outside.

Matches are running down with four scheduled for Thursday and then just two on Friday- after that we have the Singles Finals played on Saturday for the WTA event and Sunday for the ATP event and then the entire Tour can settle down and get ready for some big clay court action.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Winning matches is what will always matter most in any sports field, but the current levels being produced by Frances Tiafoe are going to have to be significantly improved if he is going to pose a threat to the World Number 2.

The last couple of wins here in Miami have been a touch fortunate, but Frances Tiafoe should be credited for finding a way to turn momentum around. He has dropped the middle set in each of the last two Rounds, but has rallied to win the decider and the World Number 20 will be playing with plenty of support behind him in the stands.

Frances Tiafoe has taken advantage of the Miami conditions and that has led to holds in 90% of service games played this week, although he has also struggled on the return.

The bigger points have landed in Tiafoe's favour and that has seen him come through the last couple of matches despite facing more Break Points than he has created.

All of this is well and good, but Frances Tiafoe will need to raise his levels considerably if he is going to upset Jannik Sinner.

The World Number 2 was tested by Alex Michelsen in the Fourth Round, but he was largely in control thanks to the dominance behind serve and that meant Sinner cannot have ever been really concerned about the position within the match. Over the last couple of years on the hard courts, Jannik Sinner has been one of the more dominant servers and his numbers in Miami make him a clear favourite to win the title on Sunday.

He may not have returned to the usual level in the Fourth Round win over Michelsen, but that did not stop Jannik Sinner from creating seven Break Points.

In the first two matches in Miami, Sinner had been much more consistent on the return of serve and he will be relatively comfortable within this match up having dominated Frances Tiafoe the last couple of times they have faced each other in competition.

Over eighteen months have passed since they last played one another, but Jannik Sinner will feel he can still predict what is to come from the American.

You can never dismiss Frances Tiafoe's ability to serve at a very high level when putting together that rhythm, but he could be under a lot of scoreboard pressure throughout this Quarter Final and the expectation is that Jannik Sinner will have a bit too much in the locker and that may allow him to cover this spread.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: It has been a very productive trip to Miami for Francisco Cerundolo and he will be keen for it to continue for at least another Round.

Very little strong hard court form had been presented by the World Number 19 over the last few years and Francisco Cerundolo had a 4-3 record in the surface in 2026 before the three wins already secured here.

The win over Daniil Medvedev is the stand out result achieved, but Francisco Cerundolo is facing an even higher Ranked opponent in this Quarter Final. His serve has proven to be a decent weapon in the conditions, but Cerundolo has really impressed with the level of the return and 45% of return games ending in a Break of serve across three wins is impressive.

None of that will be lost on Alexander Zverev who will have hoped to have been on the other side of the draw where he would have now been a big favourite to reach the Miami Final. Instead Zverev is going to have go through this tough Quarter Final opponent and then likely have another crack at trying to beat World Number 2 Jannik Sinner on Friday and it is a challenging position for the German player.

Alexander Zverev has only faced 3 Break Points in the three wins secured in Miami, but he has still spent some significant time on the court in the last two Rounds. Having a day off between the Fourth Round and the Quarter Final will help and the World Number 4 is going to be very comfortable with the serving numbers produced this season.

The returning numbers have not been as encouraging in the tournament, but Alexander Zverev has to feel there is more to come from himself.

He will take significant belief out of the fact he has won the last three matches against Francisco Cerundolo and all on the hard courts, including a very comfortable win at the Australian Open in January. The match late in 2025 was a more competitive affair in the Davis Cup, but Alexander Zverev may be the player with the majority of Break Points in this Quarter Final and that could see him edge past this spread, even if some may feel it is a game too high.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 16-14, + 1.30 Units (29 Units Staked, + 4.48% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 26th March)

For the third day in a row, it looked like some of the fortune was going to be missing, which is always needed when making Picks from a long year on the Tour.

Gael Monfils looked to be completely comfortable in the final set decider as the underdog, but threw in one poor service game and ultimately that cost him in a match where he had won more points than Sebastian Korda.

Thankfully Novak Djokovic was a comfortable Fourth Round winner and then some of the luck changed with Aryna Sabalenka finding a way to recover in the second set and beat Qinwen Zheng in straight sets and cover the wide mark set.

It has pushed the Miami totals back in a positive direction, but Wednesday looks a difficult day and only one selection is made from the four Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played. Rain in Miami has forced one of the ATP Fourth Round matches to be played on the day too, which means having to play on back to back days for the winner of the Alexander Zverev-Arthur Fils match.

Four days remain at the tournament and the hope is that a strong finish can round out the first quarter of the season and attention can turn to the clay court season and the build into the French Open.

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Another Coach has lasted a short amount of time with Emma Raducanu and her team, but the British player has enjoyed a big week in Miami and will be chasing her biggest title since surprising the sport by winning the US Open.

These days Emma Raducanu is playing as the World Number 60, but she has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points over the next couple of months and could be in a much stronger position by the time Wimbledon rolls around in late June.

Before all of that, Emma Raducanu is hoping to keep the momentum going having secured four wins in Miami, which is more than her total number of wins in 2025 prior to the tournament. She has beaten two top 20 Ranked opponents, although Emma Raducanu may have benefited from the scheduling when crushing Amanda Anisimova in the Fourth Round.

This time both Raducanu and opponent Jessica Pegula have had a day of rest after their Fourth Round wins and the latter has been playing with more consistency over the course of the year.

Jessica Pegula has won a title on the hard courts, while the three wins in Miami have come in confident manner and that will give the World Number 4 a huge amount of belief in her tennis. She has been serving really well in Miami and that is going to be key against Emma Raducanu to try and put some pressure on the British player.

Both previous matches between the players have been competitive with both earning a win apiece.

Breaks of serve have to be expected considering the quality with which both Emma Radacanu and Jessica Pegula can return, but the slight edge has to be with the latter.

She has been serving with a bit more effectiveness not only in Miami, but on the hard courts in general in 2025 and it feels like Raducanu is playing at a level that may be more difficult for her to sustain. It also should be noted that Emma Raducanu was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round at this tournament and a similar level might not be good enough when facing the World Number 4 in her current form.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 11-7, + 2.39 Units (18 Units Staked, + 13.28% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 26th)

While not quite being the same bounce back as Friday, it was still a positive day for the Tennis Picks on Saturday as I continue to climb out of the early hole for the selections.

Now we are into the Third Round matches in both the ATP and WTA events being played in Miami and that means the matches should increase in quality even further from some of the good matches that have already been produced.

Hopefully I can make it three straight winning days with the selections below.

Time should be on my side for the remainder of the tournament and I will write out a few reasonings behind some of the Picks from Monday through to the Finals next week.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 18-18, - 4.94 Units (74 Units Staked, - 6.68% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 26th)

It would be an understatement to say Friday night was frustrating.

To put it bluntly, it was a downright piss take- if someone had told me every Pick had been cursed, I honestly would have believed it.

I don't care if I get things wrong- I adjust and try and bounce back, but I am annoyed that things seemed to be so against the selections from the 'x factor' point of view.

Some were horrible Picks, those you end up regretting pretty quickly and not always down to the outcome. One of the adjustments I have made is to try not to pick 'bad' players that are artificially high in the Rankings or simply over-performing and thus being asked to cover big spreads, but I made that mistake with Sorana Cirstea who duly responded by winning two games.

Whatever, that one is on me.

But what can you do when a player is up 4-0, 40/0 and somehow only wins that set 6-4? Elena Rybakina beat her opponent in almost every metric bar the scoreboard and missed the cover by one game. She had more break points in more return games, but didn't manage to get out of one service game when facing a break point and ultimately made safe passage through to the Third Round, but without covering.

Later in the day more statistical anomalies seemed to be haunting my plays... Grigor Dimitrov was down 7-3 in games, despite losing just 4 more points, while Madison Keys had won 7 more points and was at 9-9 in games.

Oh, and Keys had been leading 6-3, 1-0, 40/0 and also found a way to allow herself to be broken before missing another break point and of course allowing her opponent to break twice from two chances earned.

It's a day that has irritated me off beyond belief, but mainly because the results largely went against the numbers and that hurts more than when it's just a bad day in the office. Bad picks can be criticised, but bad luck is a killer when it adds up as it did on Friday.

But then you have to move forward and not allow that negative spiral to overtake the thought process. I have always said I don't mind if a few stats go against me if I feel the Pick is the one I would have made any other time.

Avoiding those I instantly regret is the key and I think I have gotten better at that, but winning Picks is the only thing that really matters.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Being down at World Number 85 means relying on Wild Card entries into some of the bigger events on the Tour, although Andy Murray would earn direct entry into Grand Slam tournaments. He can invest his all into this Masters event in Miami with the expectation that Andy Murray will not be playing competitive tennis until after the clay court season when the Tour moves onto the grass, a surface on which Murray could still be a real danger to almost any player he faces.

It has not really been the case on the hard courts in 2022 and Andy Murray has continued to struggle for the consistency he would have liked to display. A win over Federico Delbonis in the First Round was solid enough, but there is no doubting how much higher the level is expected to be when he takes on the Number 1 Seed in the Miami tournament.

Daniil Medvedev lost his grip on World Number 1 last week in Indian Wells, but the chances are that he will return to that position before the clay court season when Novak Djokovic is expected to return as countries lower their criteria for allowing athletes to compete. It is important for Medvedev to produce a stronger tournament than the last Masters considering his usual disdain for the clay, although there is a feeling that he is playing under some pressure as a Russian citizen.

The hard court numbers have remained strong in 2022, although not quite to the level that Daniil Medvedev produced in 2021. Daniil Medvedev is still serving very well, but he will be the first to admit that he will want to offer more resistance in the return games having had a slight drop off on this side of his tennis.

Andy Murray has a mixed record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2022, but it has been miserable when going up against a top 20 Ranked opponent. He has lost all four matches against this opponents, while Murray has struggled to get into return games and managed to break in just shy of 6% of return games played.

It is a number that is not going to cut it against Daniil Medvedev and even a look at how Andy Murray has played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months offers little encouragement. The British player has broken in 14% of return games played in that time and Daniil Medvedev did crush Andy Murray when they met on the hard courts in Brisbane in January 2018.

The Russian has gone from strength to strength since then and I think Daniil Medvedev can bounce back from a relative early exit at Indian Wells by winning this Second Round match impressively.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v JJ Wolf: For most players on the Tour, a run to two Semi Finals and the Final of another tournament would be seen as a good start to the season. Stefanos Tsitsipas has bigger ambitions than most though and he may see it as a failure that he has yet to add another title to his collection, while the early loss in Indian Wells would have stung.

The hard court numbers are some way below the levels he has reached over the last couple of seasons, but Miami offers one last chance to better those before moving on the clay courts. In recent years Stefanos Tsitsipas has been a real threat on the red dirt, but he would love to take a confidence boosting tournament into the start of the run towards the French Open and just restore any lost belief in his own tennis.

It might be harsh to suggest that will be the case, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has raised expectations around his tenns over the last couple of years and will not want to feel like he is stuck in this current spot. And while the numbers are not as impressive as we know he can produce, Stefanos Tsitsipas is still a very effective player on the hard courts and his Second Round opponent will be well aware of that.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and JJ Wolf met last month in Acapulco and it was the former who won their match for the loss of just a single game.

No doubt that will have been a painful lesson for the young American, but I do think JJ Wolf will be more competitive in Miami. JJ Wolf has already won three matches here without dropping a set, so will feel he has the conditions under control, and he has produced plenty more wins in recent hard court events in Acapulco, Indian Wells and Phoenix.

Many of those wins have come against players lower down the World Rankings, but wins are important for the mentality of any tennis player.

However, I can't ignore the fact that JJ Wolf has struggled to be competitive when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- his serve has been a little vulnerable in those matches, while the 10% of return games in which he has broken is not really going to cut it.

Home support will help, and I think JJ Wolf will be more competitive than he was in Acapulco, but Stefanos Tsitsipas should have enough in his overall tennis to win this match and cover the spread put in front of him.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Irina-Camelia Begu + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 8-11, - 9 Units (38 Units Staked, - 23.68% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 4 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 26th)

The first Masters of the 2021 season is being played in its usual spot in the calendar and these tournaments are likely to be very important with the Ranking system due to change back to the 52 Week system rather than the two year system being used right now.

A part of the reason was the havoc created by the Covid-19 crisis twelve months ago, and that means the next four months are going to see a number of the tournaments being played that could not be played in their usual spots last season. Some, like Miami, were not played at all, while the French Open will move back to it's May spot in the calendar and it does mean there is still a dispute between the players and the Tours as to how the Rankings are looking right now.

I am hoping the clay court season can be played in full this time around and that should also lead into the return of grass court tennis which was cancelled last year. By the time all of those tournaments are in the books, the Ranking system will be close to be returning to the usual criteria and that will see some vast changes being made on both the ATP and WTA Tours.

Players can't do much about the Rankings for now and so it is important to focus on their tennis and win as many matches as possible to win Titles and be in a position where their positions will more closely reflect their current performances. It may mean a couple of lopsided Slam draws coming up before the US Open later in the year, but there has to be a time when the players stop talking about things and just prepare for the impending return to normality for the system.

The opening three days at the Miami Masters have returned a profit each time and that has put down a strong foundation for the Tennis Picks at this tournament. I have had my fair share of luck with the big points of matches landing in my favour in a couple of matches and that has helped put this start together.

I have to be honest and mention that because I did write last month how you need a bit of luck with every Tennis Pick made no matter how much research you put into finding the selections you want. Ultimately it doesn't take much for a match to swing one way or another and you just have to hope those you pick can play their best tennis at the most pressurised of moments.

So far this week it has happened in my favour having previously been disappointed to have been on the wrong end of those moments- both Frances Tiafoe and Simona Halep have covered with a late run of games in the last couple of days, but it has evened things up from last month and hopefully I can continue to get the rub of the green to go with solid selections who have managed to win their matches even more comfortably than I could have imagined.

The full selections for Day 4 and the updated totals from the Miami Masters can be read below.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert over 22.5 games: The conditions in Miami have historically been slower than the majority of the hard courts the players will perform on over the course of the Tennis Tour. This year doesn't feel any different, but it will still be difficult for two solid servers and limited returners to make an impact when it comes to breaking the other's serve in this Second Round match.

Both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be pretty happy with the performances to open the 2021 season with both players deciding to take in the hard court events where they can.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has reached the Final of one tournament and was a Quarter Finalist in Acapulco last week as well as a Fourth Round loser at the Australian Open. He will still regret blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in Melbourne, but overall a 9-4 start to the 2021 season will have given the young Canadian something to build upon.

While he received a Bye into the Second Round in Miami, Pierre-Hugues Herbert was a very easy winner in the First Round. The Frenchman is back for the first time since losing a tight Final in Marseille against Daniil Medvedev, but the run in one of the tournaments played on his home soil will have given Herbert a boost after a relatively low-key start to the season which included a First Round defeat at the Australian Open.

The serve has always been a big part of the Pierre-Hugues Herbert game and he has won 67% of points played behind that shot. It has led to him holding 82% of service games played on the hard courts and it is the kind of mark that Herbert has been used to producing on this surface and he will be confident against an opponent like Felix Auger-Aliassime who can be erratic when it comes to the return.

There is no doubting the talent Auger-Aliassime has, but the return has seen him break in just 20% of return games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2021. It is a number we have become accustomed in seeing from the young Canadian, but his own serve has produced a hold in 83% of service games played. Much like himself, Pierre-Hugues Herbert has struggled to really impose himself on the return of serve and has broken in 21% of return games played this season.

Again it should be noted this is very similar to the level Herbert has been used to putting on the court and I am not surprised that in the two previous meetings between these players that the serve has dominated. Both of those previous matches came on the indoor hard courts of Montpellier and Marseille just prior to the global lockdown back in February 2020 and four of the five sets needed twelve games to separate the two players.

Three of those have ended with tie-breakers and Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 96% of the service games played against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, while the latter held 89% of his own games. The feeling is that this match could go in a similar direction despite the slower conditions in Miami and the two players can combine to surpass the total games line.

Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: 2021 has started much better for Alexei Popyrin than it has for Reilly Opelka, and the former may be a decent price underdog to win this Second Round match.

However it is always dangerous to take on Reilly Opelka with the monster serve he possesses and particularly with a limited returner like Popyrin. The latter did have a good win over Feliciano Lopez in the First Round, but the veteran Spaniard is not the player he once was and Alexei Popyrin will know that is going to be a completely different kind of test for him.

He has won a ATP Title in Singapore this season which is going to give Alexei Popyrin plenty of belief to take forward, and he is almost certainly going to hit a career best World Ranking in the weeks ahead. That is all positive news for the Australian who has held almost 87% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021 and will likely believe he can at least control that side of his performance against Reilly Opelka.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Reilly Opelka has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts and he may not have a lot of joy out of this one as long as Alexei Popyrin is focused and not frustrated. Like many of the really big servers on the Tour like John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, Reilly Opelka can build scoreboard pressure by rolling through his own service games and shift the pressure onto an opponent to stay with him.

That may be the case in this match when you think Opelka has held 91% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021. There is no doubt that Alexei Popyrin has a superior return game compared with the American, but Popyrin has only broken in 18% of return games played on the hard courts and it does feel like a match that is likely going to go long even in the slower conditions that the players will be dealing with.

Alexei Popyrin is 11-3 in tie-breakers played this season compared with Reilly Opelka being 4-6 and I do think the former can upset the odds. However I do mainly feel this is going to be a Second Round match that is going to be massively dominated by the serve and it could easily be one that surpasses the total games mark set, even at the mark where it currently is.

I would not be surprised at all if the winner of this match needs to win two tie-breakers to move through to the Third Round and so backing these two big servers to combine to surpass the total games line on Friday.

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: One player who feels like he has a bigger profile than his Tennis warrants can sometimes be incredibly overrated as the layers know the money is likely to come down in his favour. Grigor Dimitrov is an inconsistent player who might have reached Number 3 in the World Rankings, but has never played in a Grand Slam Final and has only made it through to three Slam Semi Finals.

Relatively speaking that isn't a bad career, but it has felt like Dimitrov warrants more headlines than a player with that kind of career has deserved. Some of that may be down to being linked with Roger Federer as his early 'Baby Fed' moniker perhaps gave Dimitrov a higher platform than was warranted.

He hasn't played badly to open 2021, and Dimitrov has reached the Quarter Final at all three events he has played on the hard courts. That is encouraging, but Grigor Dimitrov's losses to Corentin Moutet, Aslan Karatsev and Lorenzo Musetti are disappointing ones and he will feel he has missed an opportunity to go much deeper into those tournaments.

Grigor Dimitrov would likely look to improve the service numbers if he is going to maintain his current level through the course of the season. Over the last fifteen months the return of serve has been keeping Dimitrov going as he has produced numbers that have not really been a feature of recent seasons and that could be key to the outcome of this Second Round match.

The Bulgarian takes on Cameron Norrie who pulled a victory from the jaws of defeat in the First Round and is one win away from matching the thirteen hard court wins he produced in 2020. Cameron Norrie has taken in a few more tournaments than Grigor Dimitrov, but he has put a number of good results in the books and, like his higher Ranked opponent, Norrie has really laid the foundation for his successes so far on the return game.

Both players will feel the conditions will aid their ability to get into the return games, although the feeling is that both Grigor Dimitrov and Cameron Norrie would ultimately prefer the faster hard courts. There are similarities with the way both have played this season, but Dimitrov looks to have been the slightly stronger behind his own serve and on the return and I think that shows up in this Second Round match.

I expect it will be quite a competitive match, but Grigor Dimitrov has the ability to make the flashy winners and produce a bit of magic tennis to edge the match in his favour. Cameron Norrie can be very good, but he is winning slightly fewer percentage points of service and return points and I do think the former top tenner will find his way to win and cover.

Daniel Evans v Frances Tiafoe: I can't really complain considering Frances Tiafoe got the job done for me a couple of days ago, but it was a very tight First Round match and he did have to spend over two hours on court to win the match. It underlined the point I made about Tiafoe being inconsistent within matches let alone from tournament to tournament and he remains a pretty average hard court player.

There is some talent coming from his racquet and a strong athleticism which keeps Frances Tiafoe competitive, but I do think it is right that he is set as the underdog in this match.

Daniel Evans has won a Title on the hard courts in 2021, but since then he has been beaten in three of four matches, although one was against Roger Federer and the other against Aslan Karatsev. In those two losses Evans was more than a little bit competitive and he will feel he was a point or two from turning those matches in his favour which will give him confidence even if the British player is going to be frustrated he didn't win either.

Neither of the last two opponents have created more break points than Daniel Evans in the match, but that won't make Evans feel that much happier.

He has made a decent start to the 2021 season on the hard courts and Daniel Evans has proven to be an effective returner which should cause problems for Frances Tiafoe. The latter has struggled returning on the hard courts in recent seasons, but Tiafoe will feel he can have some success in this match considering the early season form displayed in 2021.

Ultimately the serve has not been as effective and it has to be a little concern for Frances Tiafoe that he only has a 5-4 record on the hard courts in 2021 despite only playing one player Ranked inside the top 59 (although that was Novak Djokovic and ended in a four set loss at the Australian Open). When you actually have a look at the numbers and the level of competition, you do have to favour Daniel Evans to have a bit too much and get back to winning ways.

Daniel Evans has looked like he is playing the better tennis on the hard courts in 2021 and his numbers have looked stronger despite the fact that he has played a better level of competition. The British player is also 3-1 against Frances Tiafoe with all four matches having been played on the hard courts, and Daniel Evans has had the better of the head to head numbers with a slight advantage behind the serve.

I think there is a chance this goes long, but I think Evans can win the match and he looks like he is priced where he can be backed.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniel Evans @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 10-3, + 10.86 Units (26 Units Staked, + 41.77% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 26th)

It's good to be back.

A small break between the end of the Indian Wells Masters and the start of the second week at the Miami Masters recharged the batteries and the opening selections from this tournament could not really have gone much better.

Six Picks were made on Monday, five are in as winners as I write this although the last has made a miserable start.

It's still a start I appreciate and hopefully gives me a foundation on which to build another winning week from the Tennis Picks on the Tour. In 2019 I have only had the sole losing week so far and that is reflected in the extremely positive season totals ahead of the clay court season beginning.

The season is a long one and the turnaround in the middle of 2018 to end up with a winning record on that season shows things can change very quickly if not focusing on the task at hand.

I'm not looking at November, but taking things day by day, week by week and hopefully that will lead to a lot more winners than losers.


On Tuesday the entire Fourth Round of the ATP Masters event is set to be played and the first half of the WTA Premier Event Quarter Final matches are also scheduled for what has been a wet Miami at times.

Hopefully we are not going to see the same kind of delays that affected Monday's play.

Below you can see the selections made from the matches set to be played on Tuesday and at the end of it I am hoping more positive numbers have been added to the week's totals.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: For the third time in 2019 we are going to see Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty meet on the hard courts and I think it is going to be the player from the Czech Republic who will continue her dominance over this opponent.

Both of the matches in 2019 have been won by Kvitova Down Under where Barty would have been receiving a lot of support. The Australian remains a very popular figure, but I think the crowd split will be a lot more even and that should give Kvitova even more time to settle on her shots.

The two players have both produced solid performances this week to move through to this Quarter Final, but I still worry about Barty's mentality in these big matches. There is no doubting the talent she clearly possesses, but Barty has regularly struggled to put away top 10 opponents and I do think she needs to be a little more ruthless on the court.

While others will get louder and more 'in your face', Barty tries to play a calm game and I am not sure that helps in the critical moments. One of the strengths of the Barty game is the aggressive return, but this match up makes it more difficult for her against a big server like Kvitova and I do think that is where the multiple time Grand Slam Winner is able to come through against Barty.

Ashleigh Barty has been playing the more eye-catching tennis so far this week in Miami, but Petra Kvitova has looked strong too. The two players are both seeing the ball big enough to get a lot of joy out of the return of serve and I think the narrow edge on the serve is in Kvitova's favour which means I do think she can make it three wins in a row over Barty in the 2019 season.

Confidence is not going to be an issue for either, but I believe Kvitova has the stronger mentality in this one and I think that will see her edge out Barty in what could be a very good Quarter Final.


Felix Auger Aliassime v Nikoloz Basilashvili: One of these players will be an unexpected Quarter Finalist at the Miami Masters and give their World Ranking a real boost with the points they can earn. Not many would have picked Felix Auger Aliassime or Nikoloz Basilashivili to get to the Fourth Round, but both have been deserving of their place and will have full belief that this is a winnable match for them.

Felix Auger Aliassime is starting to make waves on the Tour as he has reached a career high World Ranking prior to the tournament beginning. The decision to play in clay court events over the last few weeks has not affected his confidence to produce on the hard courts and he has battled through the Qualifiers in Miami to make the main draw before winning three matches.

He has needed three sets to overcome three of the five opponents he has beaten in the event, but the day off between matches should mean the 18 year old is not suffering from any lingering fatigue. The numbers in the Miami Masters have been similar to what Auger Aliassime has been producing throughout 2019 on the hard courts and that bodes well for him as it does not feel like he is overachieving to make it through to the Fourth Round.

A strong 85% number of holds of serve in the tournament are being backed up by very good returning and Auger Aliassime is going to be tough to knock off at his current standards.

Nikoloz Basilashvili will feel he can do that having won his opening two matches very well in the tournament. He is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings these days, but I can't help feel the Georgian is playing above his level to be in this position and it is not one I feel he is going to hold for a long time barring a significant improvement.

He is having a strong tournament, but Basilashvili's overall percentage of hold of serves on the hard courts is down at 79% in 2019 and that is about where he has been in recent years. In this event he is up to 85% of holds, but I expect his young opponent to test that number.

Basilashvili is a decent enough returner, but this is another area in which I have to give Auger Aliassime the advantage and I think it is going to lead to a win for the Canadian. It might be a close match though and I am not going to play any handicap but simply look for Auger Aliassime to find a way past an opponent who is perhaps overachieving on the World Rankings.

Within a year I would perhaps even think these two players will pass each other on those Rankings and the improving Auger Aliassime is my pick.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Update: 5-1, + 6.72 Units (12 Units Staked, + 56% Yield)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (March 23-28)

The final international break of the season gives all domestic clubs the chance to take a breath, keep their fingers crossed that the players return without any injuries and then get ready for the big push over the final two months of the season.

That is when the big trophies are handed out and when other clubs learn their fate as to which Division they will be playing in next season, but first we have to get through the two week gap between games.

I've made my disdain for the internationals clear over the last couple of years and the 'excitement' of seeing the likes of England take on the likes of Lithuania can be hard to contain at times. There is going to be a new 'Nations Cup' in operation in the next eighteen months which is supposed to improve the quality of these breaks, but for now we have to make do with a number of mismatches as teams take another step towards the World Cup Finals in Russia which begin in fifteen months time.

There are not many rounds of Qualifiers left before we make up the next World Cup Finals though and so perhaps the intensity of games will pick up, especially those being played in the South American Qualifying Group. There are six nations who will feel they are good enough to be playing in Russia next year, but only four automatic spots and one Play Off spot for those teams.

With six games left, a big name nation looks set to miss out and so every game has taken on a new importance with two of those six games being played in the next few days. The European Qualifiers seem to be a little more 'boring' with the big nations taking on overmatched opponents, although there are at least a couple of really open looking Groups that will keep fans interested.


The World Cup Qualifiers will be played over the next few days and I will put up any picks from those games in this one thread. That will cover both rounds of games in the South American Qualifiers as well as all the European Qualifiers which are played from Friday through to Sunday.


Colombia v Bolivia Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for Colombia who can't afford to drop more points if they do want to finish in the top five of a tough section. That is the very least they would have expected when these Qualifiers began, but it does look like one of the bigger nations will miss the trip to Russia as the top six teams in South America all battle for their places.

Beating a poor travelling team like Bolivia has to be the least Colombia expect before a vital game in Ecuador next week.

Bolivia can't be underestimated having proven they can provide a shock result on their travels through previous editions of the Qualifiers having earned draws in Brazil and Argentina. They also drew in Chile earlier in this Group, even if that result was changed in the aftermath of an ineligible player being in the Bolivia line up.

Those results are the exception to the usual rule that Bolivia lose on their travels in these Qualifiers having fallen to a defeat in 28 of their last 32 away Qualifiers. They also have a poor record in Colombia having lost their last 6 games played in that country and I do think Colombia will be a little too good for them.

When Bolivia lose, they do tend to lose by a wide margin and I think Colombia can win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Paraguay v Ecuador Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for both Paraguay and Ecuador as the games begin to run out and the Group takes a more permanent shape. Anything other than a win for Paraguay will surely mean their run to the World Cup Finals in Russia is over, while a defeat for Ecuador will make them vulnerable to the three teams who are currently behind them.

However a win for Ecuador will keep the pressure on Chile, Argentina and Colombia below them and give the nation a huge step towards another World Cup Finals appearance. That should encourage them to get forward, but Ecuador have struggled away from home in recent World Cup Qualifiers and have conceded at least twice in 4 straight Qualifiers on their travels.

It should be something that inspires Paraguay who have won all 7 home Qualifiers against Ecuador in the past, but the fact that Ecuador have scored in their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers makes them dangerous too.

Both teams should have their chances to score and I would be surprised if either is satisfied with a draw which could produce an exciting game. The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here between these nations have produced at least three goals shared out and the last 3 overall between Paraguay and Ecuador have done the same.

The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think one of these teams pushes forward for the win and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a big price.


Argentina v Chile Pick: Both Argentina and Chile will be hoping they can do enough over their last six games to finish inside the top four of the World Cup Qualifying Group in South America and the winning team in this game will take a big step towards that goal. There is plenty of quality that both Argentina and Chile can call upon which should be good enough to automatically Qualify for the World Cup Finals, but both have had some struggles during this long slog.

Being at home should be an advantage for Argentina, but they have not always capitalised on that. They did, however, crush Colombia in their last World Cup Qualifier here and I think Argentina can back that up with a victory over Chile.

As well as Chile have played in recent Qualifiers to move above Argentina, they have not been as consistent away from home and their last two World Cup Qualifiers in Argentina have ended in routine losses.

The feeling is that something similar will happen here as Argentina exert their quality on a Chile team that might have a hampered and out of confidence Alexis Sanchez in the line up. Chile have lost heavily at Uruguay and Ecuador during this World Cup Qualifying campaign and I will back Argentina to cover the Asian Handicap in a win over them on Thursday.


Venezuela v Peru Pick: These two nations might have regularly become part of the also-rans in the South American World Cup Qualifiers, but this edition might have a different feel for Peru if they can win in Venezuela. That would take them onto the brink in cracking the top five places in a tough Qualifying Group, but Peru have struggled in Venezuela as they have lost their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here.

Those games have been exciting affairs for the neutrals and this one has every chance of going the same way.

Venezuela will attack at home and they do tend to score and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans. You have to think Peru will play with a little more caution as they know they have something to gain from this fixture, but this is a team who are not as strong on their travels and have been involved in some high-scoring games in recent away Qualifiers.

The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here may have been won by Venezuela, but all have seen at least three goals shared out. In fact 5 of the last 6 between Venezuela and Peru in World Cup Qualifiers have resulted in goals and this one feels it could go the same way with both teams likely to have their opportunities in front of goal.

It surprises me that the oddsmakers are offering odds against on this game featuring at least three goals and I will back that to happen.


Georgia v Serbia Pick: The oddsmakers have set Serbia as an odds on favourite to win in Georgia but it is hard to be that excited about those prices when you think they have won 3 of their last 11 away Qualifiers. The Serbian national team have won at Albania and Moldova in recent away Qualifiers, but Georgia will offer them plenty of problems in this one and I think it might be a close game.

The Serbia win in Albania came thanks to two injury time goals and they are now facing a Georgia team who don't usually collapse in home Qualifiers.

Both Poland and Germany won by at least two goals here in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but Georgia were narrowly beaten by the Republic of Ireland and have also suffered narrow home losses to the likes of Spain, Finland and Austria in recent years.

While I do think Serbia can match those teams and earn the win here, I don't think it will be an easy game for them and I do think Georgia will make life difficult. It has to be said when Serbia win away from home in these Qualifiers, they tend to do it by a wide margin, but that might not be the case here.

I am leaning towards Serbia earning a vital three points which can put them in a strong position in the Group, but I will back them to win by a one goal margin for a small interest.


Turkey v Finland Pick: The oddsmakers have set Turkey as a pretty strong favourite to win this Qualifier and you have to think home advantage is going to be telling against Finland. However I think it is going to be far from a straight forward game for Turkey who are under pressure to stay with the three teams above them in the Group with little room for error.

A slow start was overcome in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers but that had a lot to do with the additional places being offered in the Finals of that tournament. Those simply don't exist in the World Cup Qualifiers and the likes of Croatia, Iceland and Ukraine are all going to want to get to Russia having reached the Euro 2016 Finals.

Failing to win home games against Finland and matching what Iceland and Ukraine have already done would be a huge blow for Turkey and I do think they will do enough to earn the three points.

However it should be noted that Finland's 3 defeats in the Group have all come by a single goal margin and that includes in those visits to Iceland and Ukraine. Digging a little deeper into their recent away Qualifiers and you will see Finland have earned a draw in Spain and won in Greece, while also narrowly losing at Euro 2016 participants Northern Ireland and Hungary.

I have every faith Finland make this a tough day in the office for Turkey and I think the home team will have to be patient and wait for the chances to come their way. While I do think Turkey will just about edge the game, I will have a small interest on them winning this one by a single goal margin instead of looking for Turkey to win this while covering the Asian Handicap.

The oddsmakers have got the Asian Handicap at a good line and so backing Turkey to win by a single goal margin looks a decent angle for this Qualifier.


Croatia v Ukraine Pick: Over the last few years you will have regularly seen Croatia tipped as a dark horse to win a major international tournament, but they have yet to really fulfil their promise in the Finals since finishing 3rd in the 1998 World Cup. Last year was another disappointment as they went out with a whimper against Portugal in Euro 2016 despite showing so much promise in the Group.

They are the favourites to progress to the World Cup Finals in Russia next year, but one of the issues that I think Croatia need to resolve is finding a consistent goal scoring threat. They have a lot to like about their play as they reach the final third, but putting the finishing touch on chances is key to Croatia's chances of taking the next step.

It will be tested in this game against Ukraine who have played well in the Group but might be a position based on the fact that three of four Qualifiers have been played at home. The 2-2 draw in Turkey was a very good result and Ukraine have shown they are a tough team to beat in these away Qualifiers with some solid results over the last two campaigns.

Ukraine suffered a narrow loss in Spain, but they have avoided defeat in Slovakia and Slovenia and that toughness can keep them in this important game.

Ultimately I do think Croatia will be a little better on the day with home advantage important for them. It would be a surprise if it is a comfortable win though and I think backing Croatia to win by a single goal margin at minimum stakes might be the best call in this one.


Republic of Ireland v Wales Pick: As we reach the halfway stage of the European World Cup Qualifiers, this Group looks like one that might be a lot clearer by the end of this round of games. The Republic of Ireland have made a really positive start to the Group and a win on Friday night over Wales will put them in a very strong position to make it to Russia next summer.

The pressure does feel like it is on Wales to produce something having played three of their five home Qualifiers and returned just 6 points overall. While they have become harder to beat, teams have learnt that you don't want to give Wales the space to counter attack and that has made it more difficult for them to win games.

That was highlighted in the 1-1 home draw with Georgia as Wales struggled to put together the system that sees them dominate possession and break down opponents. It is likely to be a little more positive from the Republic of Ireland being at home, but Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have shown a pragmatic approach to games and the draw definitely suits them more than Wales.

Ireland have won 4 home Qualifiers in a row which will give them plenty of confidence, but this is not a team who will score a lot of goals and so opponents always have a chance against them. The injuries won't be used as an excuse for O'Neill or Keane, but it might make the draw even more appealing as it will keep the Republic of Ireland in a very strong position in the Group going into the second half of the Qualifiers.

Wales did play well away from home in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but I don't think there will be a lot between these teams. It is likely to be a tight game that might not feature a lot of goals either, but I think the draw could be the result that suits the home team and it may be the most likely outcome of this one.


Sweden v Belarus Pick: The retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the end of the Euro 2016 tournament means a new era for Sweden, but the players have responded in the right way by producing some solid performances in the World Cup Qualifiers. They are unlikely to catch France in this Group, but Sweden have every chance of finishing above the Netherlands and earning a Play Off spot.

That goal can only be achieved if they win Qualifiers like this one and I do think Sweden will be too good for Belarus when they host them on Saturday.

You can't completely discount Belarus as they have shown they are capable of producing a surprise result or two. They won in Slovakia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, which is an impressive result, but defeats to the Netherlands and Bulgaria in this Group won't inspire a lot of confidence.

The side have also 'only' managed a home draw with Luxembourg and Sweden tend to be very tough to beat at home. Sweden crushed Bulgaria 3-0 here and they have won 5 of their last 7 home Qualifiers with all but one of those wins coming by a two goal margin at the least.

At odds against I will look for Sweden to continue that run by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap in a home Qualifier win to keep the pressure on their two main rivals for the World Cup berths in this section.


Belgium v Greece Pick: This game could determine the outcome of this Group with Belgium and Greece leading the way in the section, although Bosnia-Herzegovina will still believe they can finish in the top two in the Group.

The points earned by Greece are off the back of a nice portion of their schedule with none of the wins they have earned unlikely to be matched by the other two big nations in the Group. Three of the next four games for Greece sees them take on Belgium twice and also visit Bosnia-Herzegovina and that might determine whether they are capable of making the top two in the section and a third straight World Cup Finals.

Belgium certainly look like they are going to win the Group and a win on Saturday will put them in firm control of the section. They have been playing very well in the Qualifiers as Roberto Martinez has found a way to get the attacking side of their game working to the point of scoring plenty of goals.

The home wins have been important to the foundation of their Qualifying campaigns over the last few years and Belgium have already hammered both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia at home while scoring at least four goals in each game. They should have most of the attacking play in this one and can beat Greece with something to spare.

Greece have a decent away record in recent Qualifiers, but they were beaten in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and I would expect Belgium to match that. With the goals in the squad, I will look for Belgium to win this one by a couple of goals.


Azerbaijan v Germany Pick: An impressive start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign has to have given the Azerbaijan fans some excitement that they might be able to gate crash the party being hosted by neighbours Russia next summer. It would be a real stunner if Azerbaijan were able to reach the World Cup Finals, but their win over Norway and draw in the Czech Republic will have given them a lot of confidence.

That would have been dented some by the 4-0 loss in Northern Ireland, but an upset of Germany on Sunday would reignite the Azerbaijan belief in achieving a miracle over the next several months.

That upset looks unlikely and I think Germany will prove to be too good in this one as they should be able to pull away for a comfortable win. All 4 Germany wins in the Qualifiers have been very comfortable and it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to contain a team that should have a more familiar look than the one that started the friendly with England last week.

Azerbaijan have to be respected in the fact they have challenged teams when they have visited Baku and they have not been beaten by more than two goals at home since 2011 in a Qualifier. Even the German wins here have both come by a two goal margin in their two visits during the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 Qualifiers.

However Germany have looked very strong in this set of Qualifiers and have won both away Qualifiers played by at least three goals each time. I will back them to reach that margin again in this one, but will back Germany on the Asian Handicap with the option of getting at least half the stakes returned in case of a two goal margin of victory.


England v Lithuania Pick: Most of the play is going to be made by England and they should prove to be too good for a Lithuania team they beat 4-0 in the last set of Qualifiers and who have suffered a 4-0 loss in Slovakia and a 3-0 loss in the Czech Republic in their last couple of away games.

This was a team that were also beaten 4-0 in Switzerland in the last set of Qualifiers and England have won 11 straight home Qualifiers with all of those coming by at least a two goal margin.

England have had a couple of 'poor' results in that time when you think they have 'only' beaten Estonia and Malta by the same 2-0 scoreline, but the majority of the weaker teams they have played have been brushed aside. They have won by at least three goals against the likes of San Marino (twice), Moldova, Montenegro, Lithuania and Scotland.

It should be England who have the chances and the possession to win this one at a canter and I will back them to record a comfortable win on Sunday and cover the Asian Handicap.


Northern Ireland v Norway Pick: A few years ago Northern Ireland would likely have been the underdog when facing Norway in a Qualifier, even in a game that was going to be played at Windsor Park. That is not the case at this time with Northern Ireland playing in the Euro 2016 Finals and looking like a team that has real ambitions of getting through to the World Cup Finals compared with Norway who are looking to earn experience they can use to good effect going forward.

It is a tough game to get a read on because Northern Ireland are not really a team you would associate with a lot of goals. That just means a Norway goal could be enough to avoid a defeat, but Northern Ireland have played well in home Qualifiers and I think they may just do enough to win this one.

Their home form has been strong in the Qualifiers, while Norway have been really poor in their most recent away Qualifiers. The 1-0 loss to Azerbaijan was a terrible result for Norway and it is going to be as tough in this environment where Northern Ireland have thrived.

Northern Ireland do have a terrible home record against Norway down the years, but the teams look to be in much different places now. While Northern Ireland are now a team that does look to make the major tournament Finals, Norway are just struggling to put wins on the board consistently.

It won't be easy for Northern Ireland but I do think they can earn the three points by a narrow margin in this one. I will simply look for the home team to win this one and keep the pressure on those nations chasing 2nd place in the Group.


Bolivia v Argentina Pick: This is a very important game for Argentina in their bid to make it to the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer. A tight Group means you can't really afford to drop points in a bid to finish in the top four especially not with games in Uruguay and Ecuador to come later in the Group for Argentina.

Visiting La Paz has been anything but routine for Argentina and it is hard to back them at odds on to win here this time. The side have only won 2 of their 6 away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and playing in the altitude of Bolivia has proven to be an equaliser for the home team who clearly don't have the talent that other South American sides can call upon.

Bolivia have been able to trouble teams when they have visited here and the fact they have 2 wins to Argentina's 1 over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers in La Paz indicates this will be a tough game for the away team.

However this is quite a poor Bolivia team who have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers. On the other hand they had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home Qualifiers before the 1-0 win over Paraguay and I do think Bolivia can cause some problems for an Argentina team that have struggled for goals.

Then again, Argentina had scored at least twice in 3 consecutive away World Cup Qualifiers before the 3-0 loss in Brazil, a result which means they have conceded at least twice in 3 consecutive away Qualifiers including in Venezuela and Peru.

This does feel like a game that both teams will have their chances and I am expecting both teams to score. The 1-1 is a clear scoreline that could be a player, but I think there might be enough opportunities for more and backing at least three goals to be shared out at close to odds against is a tempting enough price.

The last time these teams played here it did end 1-1, but the previous 4 World Cup Qualifiers between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz had produced at least three goals each time.


Ecuador v Colombia Pick: One of the harder teams to get a read on in the South American Qualifying Group has to be Colombia who have shown they are capable of some big results when fully focused. However they have also shown they can struggle under the weight of expectation for a nation that loves their football and the inconsistent results makes them dangerous.

This is a tough away game for Colombia as Ecuador have used their home form as a foundation for success in the Group. Ecuador have scored plenty of goals at home in the World Cup Qualifiers and have won half of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers against Colombia.

Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina have been the only teams to beat Colombia at home during the World Cup Qualifiers, but Ecuador have played well at home and can match those teams.

Colombia have only once scored more than one goal in their away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and that gives Ecuador a real chance of winning this one. This is an Ecuador team who have scored at least twice in every home game in the Qualifiers except for the when they played Group leaders Brazil and I think the home advantage could be key in a narrow win for Ecuador which takes them back into the top four in this Group.


Peru v Uruguay Pick: Nothing has been decided in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group outside of Bolivia and Venezuela being out of contention. The Peru fightback in Venezuela last week has kept them within touching distance of a place in the World Cup Finals next summer, but this is almost a must win game.

While not quite as desperate for the visitors, Uruguay have suffered heavy losses in back to back World Cup Qualifiers which has seen the gap close between them and the nations below them. Uruguay remain 2nd in the Group, but they are just 3 points clear of Chile in 6th place and they need to bounce back immediately, especially as the next two Qualifiers are against Argentina and Paraguay.

This is a tough game for Uruguay considering they have won none of their last 5 away Qualifiers and have lost 3 of those games. They have conceded at least twice in 4 of the games and will be tested by a Peru team who had scored in every home Qualifier, at least twice in 4 of 5, before the 0-2 defeat to Brazil.

Both teams will feel they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one and the onus is on Peru to keep pushing forward and try to win the game with the three points imperative for their World Cup hopes. 4 of the 6 Peru home Qualifiers and Uruguay away Qualifiers have produced at least three goals and there looks like a real potential for this game to go the same way.

The last World Cup Qualifier between Peru and Uruguay here did end with three goals shared out and I am going to back goals in this World Cup Qualifier.

MY PICKS: Colombia - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venezuela-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serbia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Turkey to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Wales Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sweden - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Northern Ireland @ 2.45 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bolivia-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 2.15 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Peru-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

March Update: 31-32-3, + 1.50 Units (129 Units Staked, + 1.16% Yield)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)