It's hard to know where the time goes when the first month of 2018 is already set to go into the books.
For most managers in European Football they may be glad the month is coming to an end as it also means the January transfer window is about to shut. This is a disruptive time as teams try to mould their squads to the best shape for the remaining four months of the season when all the silverware, and heartbreak, is set to be handed out.
Some big deals have been concluded in the Premier League with the headline made by Manchester United in swooping up Alexis Sanchez. I wrote a short piece about his arrival which can be read here.
Other big clubs have also made some serious moves and the money spent is eye-watering to say the least. That is just the way football has gone these days at the very top level and there isn't really much we can do about it.
Talking about something we can't do much about, VAR is set to be rolled out fully next season in the Premier League despite the controversies attached to the system.
I've not been a fan of any system that is going to be used to decide subjective events, but for objective events it isn't a bad tool.
Objective events like goals and offside decisions are either right or wrong, there is no grey area. But for penalties and red cards there is and it is going to come down to what someone thinks while sitting in a booth miles away from the play.
Those are the decisions that will absolutely slow down the game and they won't always be straight-forward decisions that everyone agrees on so I have to say that I think the referee on the field is going to be undermined at times.
And for those fans in the Stadium, the match going experience is definitely going to feel much more negative than it does at the moment with little communication to let them know what is happening. At Anfield on Saturday you could see the confusion, although the focus has been on the three correct decisions made in the first half.
Fine, those were correct even if I thought the penalty was harsh with a theatrical jump from Mo Salah and the ball seemingly going to be well over his head anyway. However for the most part people agreed with the decisions.
What has been ignored is the reason why the referee went to VAR for Salah's second half goal? Taking away the pure enjoyment of the moment for absolutely no reason that was plain to see is my biggest concern for a system that will be used at the most passionate time of being a football fan.
I want to celebrate a goal, not sit back and let the referee spend a minute to make sure everything has lined up even when they don't need to. I mean I thought it was going to be used for 'clear and obvious decisions' which has not been seen, so why did the referee go to the system for what looked a clear goal?
That has barely been touched in the last couple of days, but taking away the passion of the supporters in the stands is something the Premier League has been working on for years and this is just another blow to it.
Ultimately it doesn't matter that I don't like the system- it is coming in regardless. I just hope those in power realise a way to reduce the lag in the game that was seen at Anfield else football as we know it is not going to be the same again.
On Tuesday and Wednesday we have another full round of Premier League fixtures as we get closer to the final third of the League season. The battle against relegation looks remarkably tight with the improvement made by both Swansea City and West Brom, while the three places below Manchester City in the race for the Champions League spots also look like will be going down to the wire.
With a full round of fixtures, there is a full round of football picks.
Swansea City v Arsenal Pick: The performance Swansea City produced in their win over Liverpool will have given the players a real shot in the arm that they can avoid the drop to the Championship. They will have to bring the same type of energy and defensive effort they did in that win last time out if they are going to get something from this one too.
On paper you would suggest the game against Arsenal is a ‘better’ one for Swansea City than facing Liverpool, but this is an Arsenal team who can be very strong on their day. They have had the benefit of a rest this weekend having not played in the FA Cup, and there has been a suggestion the players have been freed up by the end of the Alexis Sanchez saga.
They have certainly produced a couple of very good performances to beat Crystal Palace and Chelsea, but Arsenal have to show they can do the same away from home.
Arsenal have not won any of their last 4 away games, but they led at West Brom and Bournemouth before mistakes cost them. Mesut Ozil is available though and he has proven to be a very big player for Arsenal in the last couple of months with an ability to open teams up with his passing.
With Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere all available as other supporting players, Arsenal have enough creativity to break down Swansea City here.
Credit to the way Carlos Carvalhal has got his team playing, but the win against Liverpool was a rare success against a top six club. The one defeat under Carvalhal’s management came against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League at the Liberty Stadium and the likes of Manchester United (twice) and Manchester City have also won comfortably here.
For all of the poor results Arsenal have had away from home of late, they have scored first in their last 3 away games in the Premier League. That could be crucial here and Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 at the Liberty Stadium with the last couple of visits ending in comfortable wins for The Gunners.
I will look for Arsenal to win here and cover the Asian Handicap in the process. The first goal is going to be crucial to that, but Arsenal have scored first in their last 3 away League games and doing that here might be enough to begin wearing down the Swansea City players who were in action on Saturday.
West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: There is plenty on the line in this London derby as both West Ham United and Crystal Palace continue their fight against relegation. For all the improvement both clubs have made with new managers at the helm, both remain within touching distance of the bottom three.
A win on Tuesday for either club will go a long way to pulling them away from the bottom three and begin to feel a little easier about their position. However that would leave the losing team once again looking over their shoulders at the teams below them who have all shown signs of improvement in recent weeks.
Injuries are hurting both West Ham United and Crystal Palace and this may come down to which of the teams deal with those injuries better. Both have some key players returning for this fixture, but I do worry for a West Ham United team who are missing some big names in the final third.
They also had to battle through a difficult 2-0 defeat at Wigan Athletic on Saturday while Crystal Palace have been resting since their stunning 4-1 defeat at Arsenal.
Barring a poor start like that one, Crystal Palace should be the team with the better opportunity to win this game. They may be away from home, but before the defeat to Arsenal Crystal Palace had won 2 of 3 away League games and shown toughness on their travels.
With Manuel Lanzini and Marko Arnautovic out of the line up, West Ham United may find it tough to find the creativity in the final third to break down Crystal Palace in this one. The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think Crystal Palace can show a little more in the final third against their injury hit hosts to work their way to the three points.
I would keep stakes to a minimum in a game which is as close as this one looks to be, but having a small interest in Crystal Palace to win for a third time in five years at West Ham United looks a decent price.
Huddersfield Town v Liverpool Pick: There is no doubting how big this Premier League game is at the top and bottom of the table with the two teams involved in tight relegation and top four battles respectively.
Both Huddersfield Town and Liverpool are hoping to bounce back from some poor results of late.
Huddersfield Town have proven to be a tough team to face at the John Smith’s Stadium with the win over Manchester United the stand out result. However they also led against Manchester City to show they are more than capable of challenging a Liverpool team who have defended incredibly poorly on their travels.
Unfortunately for Huddersfield Town, they have to worry about a backlash from Liverpool in this one after defeats to the bottom two clubs. Those losses were not good looks for Liverpool, but they will have seen the way Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and most recently West Ham United won on this ground this season.
The home fans have to worry that a fast start by Liverpool will see them very difficult to contain and it is a big test for Huddersfield Town. They will try and press Liverpool, but that could leave spaces to be exploited and I do think the away side will be very difficult to contain for Huddersfield Town.
Huddersfield Town can play their part too against a Liverpool defence that is susceptible against set pieces. They have scored against Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea here in the Premier League and they should have chances.
However Liverpool will also likely create opportunities and this could mean a high-scoring game at the John Smith’s Stadium. Backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the best way to approach this game with the fact that all 4 Huddersfield Town home games against the top six have ended that way.
Liverpool had been involved in 9 straight away games in all competitions which featured at least three goals before the loss at Swansea City. I will look for that trend to return here with at least three goals shared out between these teams.
Chelsea v Bournemouth Pick: Trying to work out what Chelsea will turn up from game to game has been very difficult this past few weeks. They performed really well to see off Brighton and Newcastle United, but in between draws with Norwich City and Leicester City have shown a set of players that have lost full confidence.
There has been elements of fatigue at times and I do worry that Chelsea have had to play twice since Bournemouth were last in action.
Eddie Howe has to make sure he sets up Bournemouth to take advantage if Chelsea are not able to produce their best. With Alvaro Morata missing, Chelsea may be lacking in the final third, but Eden Hazard will have to be contained if Bournemouth are going to spring the surprise.
It will all be about frustrating Chelsea who have shown they can quickly get into their stride if they can score early. Those strikes against Brighton and Newcastle United have then seen Chelsea dominate proceedings and that will be a worry for Bournemouth.
Recent weeks have seen Bournemouth produce some big results which should mean they come to Stamford Bridge with some belief. However they tend to be a side that gives the top teams in the Premier League the space to perform and that has resulted in some heavy losses to the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool in the League this season.
Last season they were beaten 3-0 at Stamford Bridge too and I think Antonio Conte had a chance to give the likes of Hazard and Pedro a rest on Sunday to be ready for this one. Bournemouth simply concede too many goals and the focus could quickly turn to the home game with Stoke City on Saturday which looks a massive one for Eddie Howe’s men.
Chelsea have not been putting a consistent run of wins together in recent weeks, but they have tended to win comfortably when they have. The Blues have only won 4 of their last 10 games in all competitions, but all of those wins have come by at least a two goal margin and I think they can do the same here.
I have to respect Bournemouth for the toughness they have shown in recent games and character to produce plenty of positive results. However they have tended to struggle against the top teams and I will back Chelsea to cover the Asian Handicap in a win on Wednesday.
Newcastle United v Burnley Pick: There are only fourteen games left in the Premier League which means we are getting very close to the point of the season where you’ll start seeing which sides are able to move away from relegation troubles and which are being dragged into it.
At the moment the Premier League is tightly congested from 10th down to 20th as 6 points will blanket those teams. Newcastle United are one of those teams and the fans continue to vent their anger at owner Mike Ashley, while Rafa Benitez makes it clear that he feels his squad needs reinforcements.
Benitez may not be very lucky when it comes to getting deals over the line and the atmosphere at St James’ Park makes it difficult for the players to perform. That is part of the reason that Newcastle United have not won any of their last 7 home Premier League games and had to settle for draws with Brighton and Swansea City in their last couple of League games here.
A lack of goals is a real concern and that is likely to be an issue against Burnley on Wednesday. Burnley have not been playing very well of late with 4 straight losses heading into this fixture, but the games they have played have been difficult.
Sean Dyche will organise Burnley to be tough to beat and they can at least contain Newcastle United to a point and give themselves a chance to earn valuable points. They have been tough to beat away from home and Burnley do have a threat which could cause problems for the home team who are lacking confidence.
I really don’t think there will be much between these teams and Burnley look tempting to back with a start on the Asian Handicap. Even though they have been in poor form, Burnley are still a tough team to beat as both Liverpool and Manchester United will tell you after narrow wins over them.
Burnley also look capable of scoring here and one goal could be enough to avoid defeat against goal-shy Newcastle United. With the poor run Newcastle United have been on, they don’t look a great favourite to back and I am going to back Burnley to earn a result here and snap their run of 4 losses in a row.
Manchester City v West Brom Pick: I have to admit I was very surprised with the strength of the team Alan Pardew picked in the FA Cup tie at Liverpool and even more surprised by the way West Brom were able to come from behind and win that tie.
They have simply not travelled that well away from home all season, but West Brom punished Liverpool for some weak defending and will be hoping to do the same at the Etihad Stadium.
it is a different challenge though with Pardew seeing some key players go down with injury on Saturday at Anfield. That could mean West Brom are a little short of numbers in this fixture and keeping players fresh for the big game against Southampton on Saturday may be on the mind of the manager.
Manchester City also suffered a big injury in their Cup tie this weekend, but Leroy Sane sounds like he has avoided a long-term injury. His team continued progressing in every competition they have entered this season and Manchester City will be a strong favourite to see off West Brom.
However it has to be noted that Pardew has made his team tough to beat and West Brom have caused problems for the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal before the win at Anfield. West Brom also drew 0-0 at Liverpool in the Premier League and I expect Pardew will want to soak up pressure and hit Manchester City on the break in this one.
The injuries are a big concern for West Brom with Jonny Evans, Kieran Gibbs, Jake Livermore and Hal Robson-Kanu all expected to miss out. I do think that just makes West Brom a little more vulnerable and Manchester City should be too good for them.
Conceding goals has been an issue for Manchester City with them seemingly being punished for every mistake they have made. Teams have had limited shots but managed to find the net and West Brom will be hoping to do the same as they did at Liverpool in the FA Cup by taking the chances that do come.
The Baggies are a big threat from set pieces, but I do think chances will be few and far between and Manchester City should have enough to win this one with a clean sheet. The Asian Handicap looks right on the money and I think backing Manchester City to win with a clean sheet is the most likely outcome of this fixture with the injuries West Brom will be dealing with.
There is also a chance that Alan Pardew will turn attention to the League game against Southampton on Saturday which is arguably more important than this one. It would mean maybe keeping some key players out and hoping to frustrate Manchester City and I think the play will dominated by the home team.
As long as they can avoid the big mistakes which have cost them of late, Manchester City can win to nil.
Stoke City v Watford Pick: We are almost down to the final third of the Premier League season and that means fixtures are increasing with importance in every passing week. For both Stoke City and Watford this is going to be a 'relegation six pointer' with both clubs trying to avoid relegation to the Championship.
Both have recently decided to make a managerial change and Stoke City had an immediate jolt after beating Huddersfield Town under Paul Lambert. The former Aston Villa manager is going to look for back to back wins for Stoke City for the first time since the end of August and being at home does give them an advantage in this one.
For all the negatives around Stoke City, they have won 3 of their last 5 home games in the Premier League and they are certainly in relatively better form than Watford. Their visitors were beaten on their travels again on Saturday and that means Watford have lost 8 of their last 9 away games in all competitions.
Injuries are really stretching the squad and that could be a problem for Watford considering Stoke City should be well rested coming into this fixture.
Games like this do tend to be close and these teams are closely matched which suggests there won't be much between them. On any given day matches between Stoke City and Watford could go either way, but I think the rested home team may have a slight enough edge to win this one.
Watford are still trying to get to grips with what Javi Gracia will want from them and I think Stoke City can take advantage of that. While Gracia hasn't had a lot of time to implement his ideas, Paul Lambert has been working with his players for ten days to have them ready to fulfil his game plan on Wednesday.
It won't be an easy game for either team, but Stoke City may just have the edge in this one and I will back them to win this fixture.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is the big game of the week as two of the top five meet at the national Stadium in the Premier League.
The importance of the match will not be lost on either Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United and it has all of the hallmarks of a close one.
Both teams are coming into the contest in very good form which is making it a tough one to read. I have to say I was surprised to see Manchester United as such an underdog to win here, but that may have something to do with the poor away record against the top teams in England under Jose Mourinho.
Tottenham Hotspur have also won 6 of their last 7 at Wembley Stadium in all competitions and beaten the likes of Liverpool and Real Madrid in emphatic fashion. With the likes of Christian Eriksen returning and Dele Alli and Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur have the quality to test a Manchester United backline which has kept 6 clean sheets in a row.
I do think Manchester United can win here, but can’t back them because of the poor record at Tottenham Hotspur in recent years. They did win at Arsenal in early December to snap a poor away record at the top six clubs, but Manchester United will also have to recognise that Tottenham Hotspur are arguably a tougher team than The Gunners.
I expect both teams will have their successes in this one with the attacking talent they can both call upon and I am looking forward to what should be a very good game of football. Games between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in North London have tended to be fun affairs for the most part and in each of the last two seasons there have been at least three goals shared out.
Tottenham Hotspur have hosted Chelsea, Liverpool and Real Madrid this season and all of those games produced at least three goals. For the most part Manchester United away games under Jose Mourinho against the bigger clubs have been low-scoring affairs, but there has been more attacking intent in the last two at Chelsea and Arsenal and the latter did produce four goals and countless other chances for both Arsenal and United.
The layers have offered the chance of seeing at least three goals at odds against and I think that can be backed. The 1-1 is perhaps the biggest hindrance to that number being hit, but I think both clubs will be trying to win this fixture and the weather in London should allow the two teams to express themselves.
MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Huddersfield Town-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Football Picks. Show all posts
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Tuesday, 30 January 2018
Friday, 11 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 11-13)
After what has felt like an age, the Premier League season is finally back.
I hate these years without a major international tournament as my football fix just cannot be fed, but next summer we have the World Cup Finals and we have all survived through the bleak last three months.
Excitement and optimism is in the air around the country and hopefully this is going to be another excellent season.
I have also written about the new season at Manchester United and the excitement most fans are feeling about the new campaign here.
With the start of a new Premier League season, this is considered the time for predictions for the season. While things can change quickly, this is my prediction for the upcoming Premier League season followed by picks from the opening weekend of the season.
Champions: Manchester City- this is a team with the best squad in the Premier League. Pep Guardiola has had a season to understand the Premier League and the differences between managing a top club in this Division compared with La Liga and the Bundesliga and the signings made make Manchester City more well rounded and a younger squad than the one Guardiola was working with last season.
Keeping Vincent Kompany fit may be the key, but the attacking talent is mouthwatering and Manchester City should be more clinical in front of goal which leads to a first title since 2014.
Champions League Places: Manchester United- I think Manchester United will finish behind Manchester City but will push them all the way. Jose Mourinho's side weren't far away from a much better season in the League last season and Romelu Lukaku can join up with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Paul Pogba to provide more goals going forward and turning draws into wins.
Defensively United have options and Nemanja Matic is a huge boost to the squad. If United can purchase a left sided attacking player, they may even have enough to win the title for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
You can read more about my Manchester United thoughts here.
Tottenham Hotspur- this is all about keeping the first eleven fit, which is a tough ask for Tottenham Hotspur. Playing at Wembley instead of White Hart Lane should see them slip back from last season, but they have enough in the first eleven to finish in the Champions League spots again.
Injuries could be a big problem barring some big investment in the remaining days of this transfer window.
Liverpool- everything depends on keeping Philippe Coutinho. Keep him and Liverpool should mount a title challenge but a lack of squad depth will likely mean a top four finish. Mohammed Salah is a good signing and if Sadio Mane remains fit they should be there or thereabouts as long as their Brazilian playmaker stays at the club.
Europa League Places: Chelsea- I thought Chelsea were overrated last season thanks to a record breaking run in the middle of the season. While finishing as Champions, Chelsea need more players with the Champions League to play as well as the Premier League this season.
Alvaro Morata has to adjust to the Premier League quickly, and Eden Hazard can't return quick enough. Chelsea's system should be more familiar to teams this season and I think they rode their luck last season which may desert the current squad and fall out of the top four is possible.
Arsenal- keeping Alexis Sanchez would be a huge achievement for Arsenal and potentially moves them back into the top four, but I am not sure he will stay even now. If Sanchez does move on, I can't see Arsenal finishing higher than 6th place barring a complete collapse from a team above them.
Relegation: Newcastle United- Rafa Benitez is upset and I would not be surprised if he walks away from this job. This is still a Championship looking squad and a lack of investment has bothered the manager.
If Benitez stays, Newcastle United stay up, but his departure may lead to another relegation for a North East side from the Premier League.
Burnley- this is harsh on Burnley who played so well last season, but they were heavily reliant on overachieving massively at Turf Moor. I can't see them matching that and Burnley look weaker without Michael Keane and Andre Gray.
They will work hard, but a step back in the home form may lead to relegation this time around.
Huddersfield Town- all credit has to be given to David Wagner, but The Terriers look far short of the quality needed to survive in the Premier League.
I expect Huddersfield Town to be decent enough in the first three months, but the high press could see players lack the energy in the second half of the season as confidence drops with a loss of form.
League Cup: Manchester City- the strong squad may be able to negotiate the early Rounds and Pep Guardiola may follow the likes of other big name managers in England whose first silverware came in this competition.
FA Cup: Tottenham Hotspur- Mauricio Pochettino has been given plenty of credit for the way he has improved Tottenham Hotspur in his time at the club, but a lack of silverware still sticks out like a sore thumb.
As they improve at Wembley during the course of the season, Tottenham Hotspur should feel right at home when it comes to the FA Cup Semi Final and Final and I can see them finally winning a trophy again.
Now I imagine plenty of these predictions go very wrong with the top six tightly bunched up. But it's just a bit of fun to see how it goes and look back in ten months time and realise how wrong I was back in August.
On Friday the Premier League is back and I have picks from the entire weekend from the top flight, English Championship and Scottish Premiership which can be read below.
Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: After what has felt like an eternity, the Premier League is back in action this weekend with the start of the opening weekend coming on Friday night from North London. For most clubs that might feel like a positive, but there are still some real question marks about this Arsenal team and a section of their support might be itching to make their feelings clear to Arsene Wenger at the Emirates Stadium on Friday evening.
This is actually the sixth season in a row that Arsenal will be opening up the Premier League at home, but they have unbelievably only won 1 of those previous 5 games. In fact Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 including opening weekend losses to West Ham United and Liverpool in the last couple of years.
It actually means Arsenal have won 1 of their last 7 opening Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium and that is not going to be music to the ears of Arsene Wenger. Another poor showing is going to bring the boo birds out again and it is not the kind of way any team wants to begin a new campaign which usually comes with plenty of optimism.
You can’t really judge a team on the way they have played last season, but Leicester City did struggle away from home against the top clubs. The Foxes lost 8 of 9 away games against the top nine in the Premier League last season and 5 of those losses did come by at least two goals.
However they do look a more settled side under Craig Shakespeare and the 3 away games at the top 9 clubs under his guidance saw Leicester City lose narrowly twice.
The squad also hasn’t had the upheaval of losing someone of the importance of N’Golo Kante (at least not at the time of writing) and Leicester City have added a couple of quality additions in Harry Maguire and Vicente Iborra.
With Arsenal potentially missing the likes of Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, I can see why the layers are not giving much away with Leicester City on the handicaps. Add in Arsenal’s opening weekend woes in recent years and this feels like it could be another tight match between two clubs who have had touch encounters in recent years.
The Gunners have managed to get the better of Leicester City with some fortune in those games and I feel they may just earn the narrow edge again. This is a fixture where you want to keep stakes to a minimum, but backing Arsenal to win by a single goal margin might be the best way to approach it.
Leicester City may be a little better all around than last season, but recent years have seen them have their difficulties away from home at the top clubs. They’ve lost 3 times in a row at the Emirates Stadium by a single goal margin, while Arsenal had a 13-1-1 record at home against teams who finished below them last season.
Only 5 of Arsenal’s 14 home Premier League wins came by a single goal margin in the 2016/17 season, but add in their issues on the opening weekend and the absence of Alexis Sanchez and that feels as good as it gets for the most likely winners on the day.
Watford v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp may be very happy to be focusing on competitive football again as he continues to face questions about Philippe Coutinho and whether he will be staying at Liverpool. The distraction of Coutinho as well as the Champions League Qualifiers which begin next week may leave Liverpool a little vulnerable for this trip to Vicarage Road.
There will be excitement around the ground for the early Saturday kick off as Watford play their first game under the guidance of Marco Silva. Despite failing to avoid relegation with Hull City, Silva’s reputation actually improved in English Football as he gave The Tigers every chance to avoid the drop.
Watford fans will be hoping he can help their side kick on in the Premier League with the hope of more positive football than the Walter Mazzarri era produced. However the key remains to avoid the drop into the Championship and Watford have signed players like Will Hughes, Tom Cleverley and Nathanial Chalobah to give them extra bite in the middle of the park.
Silva will also be looking for the shield to protect a Watford defence that finished with the 4th worst record in the Premier League last season. Facing the 4th best attack in the League from last season is going to be a real challenge for Watford this weekend, especially with Sadio Mane back for Liverpool.
The Coutinho situation makes it tough to know whether he will be starting this weekend and that does take away some of the threat of Liverpool. His passing is key for the side, but Mane, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino do offer a real threat for Liverpool going forward.
Liverpool did win 6 of their 10 away games at the teams in the bottom half last season, but one of the failures came at Hull City under Marco Silva. Goals also tended to flow as 7 of those 10 away games finished with at least three goals shared out.
The Silva arrival does change things for Watford who have lost 19 of 20 games against teams that finished in the top five over the last two seasons. This is a team who lost 10 of 12 home games against the top six finishers, and 3 of the 6 games at Vicarage Road against the top six last season ended in Watford losses of two or more goals.
In 5 of their 6 home games against the top six, there were three or more goals featured and I am looking for at least three to be shared out in this one. Liverpool conceded in 13 of 19 away games last season, but have the attacking threat to make up for it, while Watford saw goals flow when they faced the best teams.
Opening weekend games can be tough to read, but I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out by these teams on Saturday.
Chelsea v Burnley Pick: You can’t ignore the similarities between the attitudes of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte just months after winning the Premier League title as Chelsea manager. Mourinho was remarkably unhappy going into the 2015/16 season and lasted a few months before being relieved as manager, while Conte looks increasingly upset at what he perceives is a lack of support in transfer dealings the Champions have made.
There are even suggestions Conte will walk away from Stamford Bridge despite signing a new contract in the summer. A lot will depend on how much business is conducted by Chelsea between now and the end of August, but the poor body language has to be a big concern for Chelsea fans.
No one will dispute that Chelsea look short of numbers, but Conte seems to have escaped the criticisms Mourinho was receiving for not bringing through the youth. Nathan Ake, Nathanial Chalobah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Atsu, Dominic Solanke and Bertrand Traore are just some of the young names that have been allowed to move on.
That’s a lot of players that some would consider as capable squad players that have been let go, but Conte won’t care about that and instead is focusing on the lack of players being signed. It does lead to a negative atmosphere and this opening weekend game is an important one to change the feeling ahead of the big clash with Tottenham Hotspur eight days later.
It does feel like Chelsea are playing the right opponent in a Burnley side who have lost Michael Keane this summer. The majority of the squad has been kept together with some solid signings in Jack Cork and Jonathan Walters, but Burnley struggled mightily away from home last season.
12 of the top 13 clubs beat them in front of their own fans and goals were a problem. For all the anger that Conte has been displaying, Chelsea still look solid enough at the back to be able to keep Burnley from having an impact on the scoreboard.
Asking Chelsea to cover a big Asian Handicap might be too much considering Eden Hazard is absent and with the negativity I have spoken about. It feels like a fixture Chelsea would just love to pick up the three points and then move on to getting ready to face Tottenham Hotspur.
Burnley might have struggled for goals, but they did manage to hit the net at 6 of the top 8 last season. However they didn’t do that at Stamford Bridge and I think Chelsea will be looking to be as tight as possible in this one so backing them to win with a clean sheet is the pick.
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town Pick: The opening weekend of the Premier League season can be a very difficult one to call and so I would advise a minimum unit on this pick. That has a lot to do with how poorly Crystal Palace have played at Selhurst Park over the last three seasons with just 18 wins from their last 57 Premier League games here.
They now have a new manager who plays the brand of football that may be pleasing on the eye, but also could lead to Crystal Palace being more open at the back. That is certainly an area where David Wagner’s Huddersfield Town will look to earn mistakes from their high press which could see The Terriers earn an important win to open the new campaign.
However it is hard to see how Huddersfield Town will have a lot of success away from home at the higher level. The high press is all well and good, but Huddersfield Town will be trying to do that against teams far superior than they played in the Championship last season.
Even then, Huddersfield Town may have finished with the 5th best away record in the Championship, and beat Newcastle United, but the side lost to all the other clubs that finished in the top six. Now at a higher level, Huddersfield Town’s foundation for survival will have to be laid at home.
Opening weekend does produce surprise results though and Crystal Palace look a little short for me. In saying that, half of their home wins over the last two seasons have come against teams that have finished below them in the Premier League table and I would fancy Crystal Palace are going to finish above Huddersfield Town.
Goals could be produced by two teams who will likely try to play some attacking football, but I think the superior Crystal Palace squad can earn the three points on Saturday. It won’t be easy and I think it is hard to fully believe in a side that have such a poor record at home, but I will have a minimum unit pick on Crystal Palace to win.
Everton v Stoke City Pick: There is plenty of excitement going into the new season for Everton, but things could take a real shift if their club are unable to beat Stoke City and also go out of the Europa League before the Group Stage. The fixture compilers have not been kind to Everton so any slow start could see all positive vibes leave the stands before the end of September.
After this Premier League opener against Stoke City, Everton face Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H) and Manchester United (A)… Suffice to say it is important for Everton to get off to a good start this weekend.
The new arrivals at the club have shown intent from Everton, but I feel they may have improved the squad rather than the starting eleven if that makes sense. While they can rotate the squad a little more, the absence of Romelu Lukaku and, to a lesser extent, Ross Barkley does take away pace and quality from the Everton starting line up.
You can understand why Ronald Koeman has not finished his transfer business with that in mind, but it does mean Everton look incredibly short to win this match. I do think they will get the better of Stoke City, who also look weaker than last season at this point, but I won’t be risking too many units on them being able to do that.
Mark Hughes is under a different pressure than Koeman with the expectation at Stoke City not matching that at Everton. However the manager won’t want another start like last season when Stoke City failed to win any of their first 7 Premier League games and lost 4 in a row after an opening day draw with Middlesbrough.
This is a team that continues to struggle to compete with the best teams in the Premier League, especially away from home.
Everton were another who beat Stoke City at home last season, but the back to back home losses to this club prior to that does worry me. I think Everton will also find it tougher to break down these kinds of teams without more investment, but I think they have better momentum and more positive feelings than Stoke City and can show that this weekend.
The side have won 9 of their last 10 at home in all competitions and I will have a minimum unit on Everton winning this weekend.
Brighton v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras will head to the Amex Stadium for the first time for a Premier League game and there will be excitement in the air for both Brighton and Manchester City. The fans in the Stadium will be looking for Brighton to kick on from last season, but Chris Hughton will get an idea of how much work there is to do to keep Brighton in the Premier League when facing a team of this quality on opening weekend.
Finishing 17th will do for Brighton this season you would imagine, but anything less than 1st, or at least a sustained title challenge until May, will probably be seen as a failure for Manchester City. The investment made in the transfer window makes Manchester City the favourites for the title in my opinion, although they do need to keep the likes of Vincent Kompany and Kevin De Bruyne fit for much of the season.
Ederson, Kyle Walker, Benjamin Mendy and Bernardo Silva being added to the talent already in the squad gives Pep Guardiola the options he would want. They have kept Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero together and this is a team with plenty of goals in the side.
I also think Manchester City will continue to be a very dangerous away team having won 12 of 19 away Premier League games last season. With the extra space they will tend to find on their travels, Manchester City have the pace and the quality to exploit the spaces they will tend to find.
Manchester City didn’t beat any of their fellow top five teams away from home, but they were very strong against the rest of the teams. They were beaten at Leicester City, but Manchester City won 11 of 13 games at the bottom 13 last season.
9 of their 12 wins came by two or more goals as Manchester City were very good at exploiting spaces and I expect that to be the case on Saturday. While Brighton will be cautious under Chris Hughton, trying to play preventative football at home can be difficult with the fans urging a team on. Brighton will also have players looking to prove themselves and I think it will be a tough ask for them to stay with this Manchester City team who will put up some big scores away from home this season.
Manchester City were particularly dominant when they faced the teams who finished inside the bottom 7 places and that is where Brighton are most likely to end up. Opening day can see a surprise result or two, but I will be looking for Manchester City to earn a win by at least a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: With a new Stadium being built and Tottenham Hotspur finishing in the Champions League places in consecutive seasons for the first time, fans of the club must have been excited about the chances of winning the Premier League title this season.
However the majority of the teams that finished below them have strengthened, as well as Champions Chelsea, while Tottenham Hotspur have only sold Kyle Walker in this transfer window. Standing still is not really the pathway to success, especially not with the additional factor of playing home games away from White Hart Lane.
Therefore a top four finish would be a big achievement for Tottenham Hotspur whose squad is going to be stretched by Champions League and Premier League Football. An injury to the likes of Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli or Harry Kane would be too difficult to overcome too and I think this could be a difficult season for Spurs.
An injury free season and Tottenham Hotspur will challenge for a top four finish but that is asking for a lot of luck. Tottenham Hotspur had the 5th best away record in the Premier League last season and now essentially have to play 38 away League games.
Tottenham Hotspur were at their best away from home when playing the bottom 9 clubs, winning 8 of those games and drawing the other. That will give them confidence when facing a Newcastle United team who have not strengthened as they would have liked.
However you can’t ignore that Newcastle United finished with the 10th best home record in the Premier League two seasons ago despite relegation. The year prior it was the 13th best home record and Newcastle United will be well organised under Rafa Benitez, who gives them the best shot of the promoted clubs to avoid the drop back into the Championship.
A lack of new investment has bothered Benitez, but Newcastle United will give Tottenham Hotspur a test. At home Newcastle United are expected to get forward so I do think they can pose problems for Tottenham Hotspur, although the same will be said for Tottenham Hotspur when they get forward.
A new season does mean some players could tire, but the temperatures don’t look too bad for August so I expect to see a good game between these two clubs. Goals have flowed when Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur have met at St James’ Park and I think the home team can contribute in an entertaining affair on Sunday.
Tottenham Hotspur look short to win here considering some of the negative headlines about their transfer policy, but any win will have to come in a game featuring at least three goals in my opinion.
Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: Both Manchester United and West Ham United underachieved in the Premier League last season, but both clubs come into the new season with more positive feelings than negative ones. There is a real expectation that both clubs will improve on their 6th and 11th place finishes respectively from last season.
Jose Mourinho’s successes in his second season with previous clubs are being used for further positives for Manchester United who won the Europa Cup to end last season. With the new investment being made on the playing side, there does feel like a title winning squad is being put together, although perhaps still a season away from actually going on to win it.
Romelu Lukaku’s arrival is for games like this one where he can turn draws into wins. Too many clubs came to Old Trafford to earn a draw last season, and notably from further down the League table, but Lukaku showed at Everton he does score in these kind of games.
With the likes of Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan having a season under their belts, Manchester United do look a more settled eleven. They may still be able to do with another left sided attacker and that looks to be an area that will be strengthened before the transfer window shuts, but overall the squad looks better than last season.
It won’t be easy against a West Ham United team even though the Hammers lost 7 of 10 away games against teams that finished above them in the Premier League. One of their positive results came at Old Trafford and West Ham United do look a more settled team this time around compared with twelve months ago.
The arrival of the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez look like solid bits of business for a team looking for a top half finish. However injuries could be a factor on the opening weekend of the season and West Ham United could be needing their hosts to be as poor in front of goal as they were for much of last season.
Chances will be created as Manchester United showed against Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup. There has to be some concern that Manchester United missed some top opportunities in that game too, but I think they open this season with a positive vibe and can record what will be a comfortable home League win to set the tone for the season.
You can read my views about Manchester United's upcoming season here.
Partick Thistle v Celtic Pick: At this stage of the season you would have to think that Celtic are going to be very much focused on the Champions League Play Off Round tie against Astana. The First Leg is played on Wednesday, but Celtic have been given the benefit of a Friday night Scottish Premiership time which should be ample time to prepare for the Champions League tie at Celtic Park.
Partick Thistle will be hoping to build on their 6th place finish in the Scottish Premiership from last season, but it can be tough to know exactly how to approach this League fixture. While they impressed with their highest League finish in almost thirty years, it was clear that Partick Thistle didn't really belong with the elite clubs in the Scottish Premiership.
The squad may be considered stronger this season, but I don't think you can ignore the fact Partick Thistle lost 9 of 10 home games against the teams who finished above them in the Scottish Premiership. There is also no doubt that Celtic look head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the Division and they did record 2 big wins at Firhill Stadium last season (1-4 in December and 0-5 in May).
The home team have to hope Celtic are distracted, but Brendan Rodgers has his team playing very well early in the last campaign with the hope of keeping positive momentum behind them going into the Champions League Qualifiers. With a couple of big wins already this week, Celtic look very dangerous here.
Celtic have won 14 in a row at Partick Thistle and 9 of those have come by at least a couple of goals. That includes 5 of the last 6 including both last season and Partick Thistle were beaten by a couple of goals in 3 of 4 matches against Celtic and Aberdeen last season.
Backing Celtic to win here by at least a couple of goals looks to be too big a price and I will look for the Scottish Champions to have some real momentum behind them when they face Astana next week.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest Pick: The opening weeks of a new season can be difficult to get a read on with teams sometimes undercooked at the start and then rapidly making improvements with the quick succession of matches in August. There are 4 games for the teams in the Championship to negotiate by the middle of the month and this is the third of those for Brentford and Nottingham Forest.
Mark Warburton should receive a positive welcome from the Brentford fans having guided them to a Play Off spot before harshly being let go by the owner. Brentford have not been able to match that finish since Warburton left, but the manager is now concerned with Nottingham Forest.
He was not happy with the performance in the 1-0 win over Millwall, while Brentford perhaps deserved more than a defeat at Sheffield United last week. Being at home for the first time may give Brentford the chance to move back level on points with their visitors who had an awful away record last season.
Brentford were inconsistent at home for the second season in a row and that has to be a concern. However they do have goals in the squad and would have been encouraged by the chances Millwall created against Nottingham Forest, while Brentford have beaten Nottingham Forest twice in a row at Griffin Park.
That is enough to have a minimum unit interest on Brentford winning their first home game of the season.
Leeds United v Preston North End Pick: There was a disappointment in the Leeds United fanbase that they could not keep Garry Monk as manager and it was clear how much the supporters are still thankful to their former manager last weekend. However the Thomas Christiansen era has gotten off to a positive start with back to back wins and now the manager looks for a first League win at Elland Road.
7 goals scored in a couple of games will encourage the fans that an exciting season is forthcoming, but Christiansen is likely going to want Leeds United to show better defensive shape.
Elland Road is also going to be an important venue for Leeds United if they want to improve on their 7th place finish from last season. They played well here last season, but still have room for improvement having finished with fewer wins than seven other teams in the Championship.
Leeds United look to be facing the right opponent in Preston North End despite Alex Neil's men getting off to a positive start with a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday last weekend. However they were then beaten 3-2 at Accrington Stanley in the League Cup and Preston North End have not won any of 12 away games in all competitions and lost 5 in a row.
They were also beaten by 6 of the top 7 in the League away from home last season and Preston North End have lost twice in a row at Elland Road since being promoted back into the Championship. I think Leeds United can continue their 100% record in the new season here and are worth a back to win this one.
Sheffield Wednesday v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is still very early in the new League season but earning the first points will still be the only way for players to truly settle into the campaign.
Sheffield Wednesday and Queens Park Rangers both moved into the League Cup Second Round during the week with wins over lower League opposition, but only Queens Park Rangers won on the opening weekend.
Playing at home should give Sheffield Wednesday every chance to win their first League game especially as they look a stronger squad than Queens Park Rangers. The latter did lose at 3 of the top 5 from last season, although they have proved to be a tough nut to crack at times.
Losing 6 of their last 7, including the last 5 in a row, away from home will put Queens Park Rangers in a tough spot and over the last couple of seasons Sheffield Wednesday have generally been able to beat those teams who finished below them at Hillsborough.
It won't be easy to keep the stake to a minimum, but I will look for Sheffield Wednesday to find a way to get the better of Queens Park Rangers here.
Middlesbrough v Sheffield United Pick: Twelve months ago there would have been two Divisions between these teams, but on Saturday Middlesbrough and Sheffield United will be playing in a League game at the Riverside Stadium.
While the thinking may be that Middlesbrough are feeling down after relegation and Sheffield United are on the up following promotion, it is Middlesbrough who are considered favourites in the Championship. This is a squad that has the majority of players from the team that won promotion two years ago, while Garry Monk has been able to add some real firepower.
That didn't look the case in the 1-0 loss at Wolves last weekend, but you have to think Middlesbrough will have goals in the squad and will be there or thereabouts when it comes to promotion places in May.
Sheffield United will be confident having won 1-0 last weekend in their first game at this level in seven years, but they were put under pressure by Brentford and that game was played at Bramall Lane. Playing away from home will be a much tougher test for a newly promoted side and I think it is important to note they lost at both Bolton Wanderers and Millwall who came up with them.
In fact The Blades failed to beat any of the 5 teams immediately below them away from home and this is a big step up in competition for them. I do think Middlesbrough will challenge for promotion and Garry Monk's Leeds United were very strong at home last season.
I expect Middlesbrough to get their first win of the season this weekend.
MY PICKS: Arsenal to Win by One Goal @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Watford-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brentford @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Leeds United @ 2.05 Coral (1 Unit)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Middlesbrough @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
August Update: 2-3-1, - 0.85 Units (6 Units Staked, - 14.17% Yield)
I hate these years without a major international tournament as my football fix just cannot be fed, but next summer we have the World Cup Finals and we have all survived through the bleak last three months.
Excitement and optimism is in the air around the country and hopefully this is going to be another excellent season.
I have also written about the new season at Manchester United and the excitement most fans are feeling about the new campaign here.
With the start of a new Premier League season, this is considered the time for predictions for the season. While things can change quickly, this is my prediction for the upcoming Premier League season followed by picks from the opening weekend of the season.
Champions: Manchester City- this is a team with the best squad in the Premier League. Pep Guardiola has had a season to understand the Premier League and the differences between managing a top club in this Division compared with La Liga and the Bundesliga and the signings made make Manchester City more well rounded and a younger squad than the one Guardiola was working with last season.
Keeping Vincent Kompany fit may be the key, but the attacking talent is mouthwatering and Manchester City should be more clinical in front of goal which leads to a first title since 2014.
Champions League Places: Manchester United- I think Manchester United will finish behind Manchester City but will push them all the way. Jose Mourinho's side weren't far away from a much better season in the League last season and Romelu Lukaku can join up with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Paul Pogba to provide more goals going forward and turning draws into wins.
Defensively United have options and Nemanja Matic is a huge boost to the squad. If United can purchase a left sided attacking player, they may even have enough to win the title for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
You can read more about my Manchester United thoughts here.
Tottenham Hotspur- this is all about keeping the first eleven fit, which is a tough ask for Tottenham Hotspur. Playing at Wembley instead of White Hart Lane should see them slip back from last season, but they have enough in the first eleven to finish in the Champions League spots again.
Injuries could be a big problem barring some big investment in the remaining days of this transfer window.
Liverpool- everything depends on keeping Philippe Coutinho. Keep him and Liverpool should mount a title challenge but a lack of squad depth will likely mean a top four finish. Mohammed Salah is a good signing and if Sadio Mane remains fit they should be there or thereabouts as long as their Brazilian playmaker stays at the club.
Europa League Places: Chelsea- I thought Chelsea were overrated last season thanks to a record breaking run in the middle of the season. While finishing as Champions, Chelsea need more players with the Champions League to play as well as the Premier League this season.
Alvaro Morata has to adjust to the Premier League quickly, and Eden Hazard can't return quick enough. Chelsea's system should be more familiar to teams this season and I think they rode their luck last season which may desert the current squad and fall out of the top four is possible.
Arsenal- keeping Alexis Sanchez would be a huge achievement for Arsenal and potentially moves them back into the top four, but I am not sure he will stay even now. If Sanchez does move on, I can't see Arsenal finishing higher than 6th place barring a complete collapse from a team above them.
Relegation: Newcastle United- Rafa Benitez is upset and I would not be surprised if he walks away from this job. This is still a Championship looking squad and a lack of investment has bothered the manager.
If Benitez stays, Newcastle United stay up, but his departure may lead to another relegation for a North East side from the Premier League.
Burnley- this is harsh on Burnley who played so well last season, but they were heavily reliant on overachieving massively at Turf Moor. I can't see them matching that and Burnley look weaker without Michael Keane and Andre Gray.
They will work hard, but a step back in the home form may lead to relegation this time around.
Huddersfield Town- all credit has to be given to David Wagner, but The Terriers look far short of the quality needed to survive in the Premier League.
I expect Huddersfield Town to be decent enough in the first three months, but the high press could see players lack the energy in the second half of the season as confidence drops with a loss of form.
League Cup: Manchester City- the strong squad may be able to negotiate the early Rounds and Pep Guardiola may follow the likes of other big name managers in England whose first silverware came in this competition.
FA Cup: Tottenham Hotspur- Mauricio Pochettino has been given plenty of credit for the way he has improved Tottenham Hotspur in his time at the club, but a lack of silverware still sticks out like a sore thumb.
As they improve at Wembley during the course of the season, Tottenham Hotspur should feel right at home when it comes to the FA Cup Semi Final and Final and I can see them finally winning a trophy again.
Now I imagine plenty of these predictions go very wrong with the top six tightly bunched up. But it's just a bit of fun to see how it goes and look back in ten months time and realise how wrong I was back in August.
On Friday the Premier League is back and I have picks from the entire weekend from the top flight, English Championship and Scottish Premiership which can be read below.
Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: After what has felt like an eternity, the Premier League is back in action this weekend with the start of the opening weekend coming on Friday night from North London. For most clubs that might feel like a positive, but there are still some real question marks about this Arsenal team and a section of their support might be itching to make their feelings clear to Arsene Wenger at the Emirates Stadium on Friday evening.
This is actually the sixth season in a row that Arsenal will be opening up the Premier League at home, but they have unbelievably only won 1 of those previous 5 games. In fact Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 including opening weekend losses to West Ham United and Liverpool in the last couple of years.
It actually means Arsenal have won 1 of their last 7 opening Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium and that is not going to be music to the ears of Arsene Wenger. Another poor showing is going to bring the boo birds out again and it is not the kind of way any team wants to begin a new campaign which usually comes with plenty of optimism.
You can’t really judge a team on the way they have played last season, but Leicester City did struggle away from home against the top clubs. The Foxes lost 8 of 9 away games against the top nine in the Premier League last season and 5 of those losses did come by at least two goals.
However they do look a more settled side under Craig Shakespeare and the 3 away games at the top 9 clubs under his guidance saw Leicester City lose narrowly twice.
The squad also hasn’t had the upheaval of losing someone of the importance of N’Golo Kante (at least not at the time of writing) and Leicester City have added a couple of quality additions in Harry Maguire and Vicente Iborra.
With Arsenal potentially missing the likes of Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, I can see why the layers are not giving much away with Leicester City on the handicaps. Add in Arsenal’s opening weekend woes in recent years and this feels like it could be another tight match between two clubs who have had touch encounters in recent years.
The Gunners have managed to get the better of Leicester City with some fortune in those games and I feel they may just earn the narrow edge again. This is a fixture where you want to keep stakes to a minimum, but backing Arsenal to win by a single goal margin might be the best way to approach it.
Leicester City may be a little better all around than last season, but recent years have seen them have their difficulties away from home at the top clubs. They’ve lost 3 times in a row at the Emirates Stadium by a single goal margin, while Arsenal had a 13-1-1 record at home against teams who finished below them last season.
Only 5 of Arsenal’s 14 home Premier League wins came by a single goal margin in the 2016/17 season, but add in their issues on the opening weekend and the absence of Alexis Sanchez and that feels as good as it gets for the most likely winners on the day.
Watford v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp may be very happy to be focusing on competitive football again as he continues to face questions about Philippe Coutinho and whether he will be staying at Liverpool. The distraction of Coutinho as well as the Champions League Qualifiers which begin next week may leave Liverpool a little vulnerable for this trip to Vicarage Road.
There will be excitement around the ground for the early Saturday kick off as Watford play their first game under the guidance of Marco Silva. Despite failing to avoid relegation with Hull City, Silva’s reputation actually improved in English Football as he gave The Tigers every chance to avoid the drop.
Watford fans will be hoping he can help their side kick on in the Premier League with the hope of more positive football than the Walter Mazzarri era produced. However the key remains to avoid the drop into the Championship and Watford have signed players like Will Hughes, Tom Cleverley and Nathanial Chalobah to give them extra bite in the middle of the park.
Silva will also be looking for the shield to protect a Watford defence that finished with the 4th worst record in the Premier League last season. Facing the 4th best attack in the League from last season is going to be a real challenge for Watford this weekend, especially with Sadio Mane back for Liverpool.
The Coutinho situation makes it tough to know whether he will be starting this weekend and that does take away some of the threat of Liverpool. His passing is key for the side, but Mane, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino do offer a real threat for Liverpool going forward.
Liverpool did win 6 of their 10 away games at the teams in the bottom half last season, but one of the failures came at Hull City under Marco Silva. Goals also tended to flow as 7 of those 10 away games finished with at least three goals shared out.
The Silva arrival does change things for Watford who have lost 19 of 20 games against teams that finished in the top five over the last two seasons. This is a team who lost 10 of 12 home games against the top six finishers, and 3 of the 6 games at Vicarage Road against the top six last season ended in Watford losses of two or more goals.
In 5 of their 6 home games against the top six, there were three or more goals featured and I am looking for at least three to be shared out in this one. Liverpool conceded in 13 of 19 away games last season, but have the attacking threat to make up for it, while Watford saw goals flow when they faced the best teams.
Opening weekend games can be tough to read, but I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out by these teams on Saturday.
Chelsea v Burnley Pick: You can’t ignore the similarities between the attitudes of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte just months after winning the Premier League title as Chelsea manager. Mourinho was remarkably unhappy going into the 2015/16 season and lasted a few months before being relieved as manager, while Conte looks increasingly upset at what he perceives is a lack of support in transfer dealings the Champions have made.
There are even suggestions Conte will walk away from Stamford Bridge despite signing a new contract in the summer. A lot will depend on how much business is conducted by Chelsea between now and the end of August, but the poor body language has to be a big concern for Chelsea fans.
No one will dispute that Chelsea look short of numbers, but Conte seems to have escaped the criticisms Mourinho was receiving for not bringing through the youth. Nathan Ake, Nathanial Chalobah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Atsu, Dominic Solanke and Bertrand Traore are just some of the young names that have been allowed to move on.
That’s a lot of players that some would consider as capable squad players that have been let go, but Conte won’t care about that and instead is focusing on the lack of players being signed. It does lead to a negative atmosphere and this opening weekend game is an important one to change the feeling ahead of the big clash with Tottenham Hotspur eight days later.
It does feel like Chelsea are playing the right opponent in a Burnley side who have lost Michael Keane this summer. The majority of the squad has been kept together with some solid signings in Jack Cork and Jonathan Walters, but Burnley struggled mightily away from home last season.
12 of the top 13 clubs beat them in front of their own fans and goals were a problem. For all the anger that Conte has been displaying, Chelsea still look solid enough at the back to be able to keep Burnley from having an impact on the scoreboard.
Asking Chelsea to cover a big Asian Handicap might be too much considering Eden Hazard is absent and with the negativity I have spoken about. It feels like a fixture Chelsea would just love to pick up the three points and then move on to getting ready to face Tottenham Hotspur.
Burnley might have struggled for goals, but they did manage to hit the net at 6 of the top 8 last season. However they didn’t do that at Stamford Bridge and I think Chelsea will be looking to be as tight as possible in this one so backing them to win with a clean sheet is the pick.
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town Pick: The opening weekend of the Premier League season can be a very difficult one to call and so I would advise a minimum unit on this pick. That has a lot to do with how poorly Crystal Palace have played at Selhurst Park over the last three seasons with just 18 wins from their last 57 Premier League games here.
They now have a new manager who plays the brand of football that may be pleasing on the eye, but also could lead to Crystal Palace being more open at the back. That is certainly an area where David Wagner’s Huddersfield Town will look to earn mistakes from their high press which could see The Terriers earn an important win to open the new campaign.
However it is hard to see how Huddersfield Town will have a lot of success away from home at the higher level. The high press is all well and good, but Huddersfield Town will be trying to do that against teams far superior than they played in the Championship last season.
Even then, Huddersfield Town may have finished with the 5th best away record in the Championship, and beat Newcastle United, but the side lost to all the other clubs that finished in the top six. Now at a higher level, Huddersfield Town’s foundation for survival will have to be laid at home.
Opening weekend does produce surprise results though and Crystal Palace look a little short for me. In saying that, half of their home wins over the last two seasons have come against teams that have finished below them in the Premier League table and I would fancy Crystal Palace are going to finish above Huddersfield Town.
Goals could be produced by two teams who will likely try to play some attacking football, but I think the superior Crystal Palace squad can earn the three points on Saturday. It won’t be easy and I think it is hard to fully believe in a side that have such a poor record at home, but I will have a minimum unit pick on Crystal Palace to win.
Everton v Stoke City Pick: There is plenty of excitement going into the new season for Everton, but things could take a real shift if their club are unable to beat Stoke City and also go out of the Europa League before the Group Stage. The fixture compilers have not been kind to Everton so any slow start could see all positive vibes leave the stands before the end of September.
After this Premier League opener against Stoke City, Everton face Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H) and Manchester United (A)… Suffice to say it is important for Everton to get off to a good start this weekend.
The new arrivals at the club have shown intent from Everton, but I feel they may have improved the squad rather than the starting eleven if that makes sense. While they can rotate the squad a little more, the absence of Romelu Lukaku and, to a lesser extent, Ross Barkley does take away pace and quality from the Everton starting line up.
You can understand why Ronald Koeman has not finished his transfer business with that in mind, but it does mean Everton look incredibly short to win this match. I do think they will get the better of Stoke City, who also look weaker than last season at this point, but I won’t be risking too many units on them being able to do that.
Mark Hughes is under a different pressure than Koeman with the expectation at Stoke City not matching that at Everton. However the manager won’t want another start like last season when Stoke City failed to win any of their first 7 Premier League games and lost 4 in a row after an opening day draw with Middlesbrough.
This is a team that continues to struggle to compete with the best teams in the Premier League, especially away from home.
Everton were another who beat Stoke City at home last season, but the back to back home losses to this club prior to that does worry me. I think Everton will also find it tougher to break down these kinds of teams without more investment, but I think they have better momentum and more positive feelings than Stoke City and can show that this weekend.
The side have won 9 of their last 10 at home in all competitions and I will have a minimum unit on Everton winning this weekend.
Brighton v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras will head to the Amex Stadium for the first time for a Premier League game and there will be excitement in the air for both Brighton and Manchester City. The fans in the Stadium will be looking for Brighton to kick on from last season, but Chris Hughton will get an idea of how much work there is to do to keep Brighton in the Premier League when facing a team of this quality on opening weekend.
Finishing 17th will do for Brighton this season you would imagine, but anything less than 1st, or at least a sustained title challenge until May, will probably be seen as a failure for Manchester City. The investment made in the transfer window makes Manchester City the favourites for the title in my opinion, although they do need to keep the likes of Vincent Kompany and Kevin De Bruyne fit for much of the season.
Ederson, Kyle Walker, Benjamin Mendy and Bernardo Silva being added to the talent already in the squad gives Pep Guardiola the options he would want. They have kept Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero together and this is a team with plenty of goals in the side.
I also think Manchester City will continue to be a very dangerous away team having won 12 of 19 away Premier League games last season. With the extra space they will tend to find on their travels, Manchester City have the pace and the quality to exploit the spaces they will tend to find.
Manchester City didn’t beat any of their fellow top five teams away from home, but they were very strong against the rest of the teams. They were beaten at Leicester City, but Manchester City won 11 of 13 games at the bottom 13 last season.
9 of their 12 wins came by two or more goals as Manchester City were very good at exploiting spaces and I expect that to be the case on Saturday. While Brighton will be cautious under Chris Hughton, trying to play preventative football at home can be difficult with the fans urging a team on. Brighton will also have players looking to prove themselves and I think it will be a tough ask for them to stay with this Manchester City team who will put up some big scores away from home this season.
Manchester City were particularly dominant when they faced the teams who finished inside the bottom 7 places and that is where Brighton are most likely to end up. Opening day can see a surprise result or two, but I will be looking for Manchester City to earn a win by at least a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: With a new Stadium being built and Tottenham Hotspur finishing in the Champions League places in consecutive seasons for the first time, fans of the club must have been excited about the chances of winning the Premier League title this season.
However the majority of the teams that finished below them have strengthened, as well as Champions Chelsea, while Tottenham Hotspur have only sold Kyle Walker in this transfer window. Standing still is not really the pathway to success, especially not with the additional factor of playing home games away from White Hart Lane.
Therefore a top four finish would be a big achievement for Tottenham Hotspur whose squad is going to be stretched by Champions League and Premier League Football. An injury to the likes of Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli or Harry Kane would be too difficult to overcome too and I think this could be a difficult season for Spurs.
An injury free season and Tottenham Hotspur will challenge for a top four finish but that is asking for a lot of luck. Tottenham Hotspur had the 5th best away record in the Premier League last season and now essentially have to play 38 away League games.
Tottenham Hotspur were at their best away from home when playing the bottom 9 clubs, winning 8 of those games and drawing the other. That will give them confidence when facing a Newcastle United team who have not strengthened as they would have liked.
However you can’t ignore that Newcastle United finished with the 10th best home record in the Premier League two seasons ago despite relegation. The year prior it was the 13th best home record and Newcastle United will be well organised under Rafa Benitez, who gives them the best shot of the promoted clubs to avoid the drop back into the Championship.
A lack of new investment has bothered Benitez, but Newcastle United will give Tottenham Hotspur a test. At home Newcastle United are expected to get forward so I do think they can pose problems for Tottenham Hotspur, although the same will be said for Tottenham Hotspur when they get forward.
A new season does mean some players could tire, but the temperatures don’t look too bad for August so I expect to see a good game between these two clubs. Goals have flowed when Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur have met at St James’ Park and I think the home team can contribute in an entertaining affair on Sunday.
Tottenham Hotspur look short to win here considering some of the negative headlines about their transfer policy, but any win will have to come in a game featuring at least three goals in my opinion.
Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: Both Manchester United and West Ham United underachieved in the Premier League last season, but both clubs come into the new season with more positive feelings than negative ones. There is a real expectation that both clubs will improve on their 6th and 11th place finishes respectively from last season.
Jose Mourinho’s successes in his second season with previous clubs are being used for further positives for Manchester United who won the Europa Cup to end last season. With the new investment being made on the playing side, there does feel like a title winning squad is being put together, although perhaps still a season away from actually going on to win it.
Romelu Lukaku’s arrival is for games like this one where he can turn draws into wins. Too many clubs came to Old Trafford to earn a draw last season, and notably from further down the League table, but Lukaku showed at Everton he does score in these kind of games.
With the likes of Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan having a season under their belts, Manchester United do look a more settled eleven. They may still be able to do with another left sided attacker and that looks to be an area that will be strengthened before the transfer window shuts, but overall the squad looks better than last season.
It won’t be easy against a West Ham United team even though the Hammers lost 7 of 10 away games against teams that finished above them in the Premier League. One of their positive results came at Old Trafford and West Ham United do look a more settled team this time around compared with twelve months ago.
The arrival of the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez look like solid bits of business for a team looking for a top half finish. However injuries could be a factor on the opening weekend of the season and West Ham United could be needing their hosts to be as poor in front of goal as they were for much of last season.
Chances will be created as Manchester United showed against Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup. There has to be some concern that Manchester United missed some top opportunities in that game too, but I think they open this season with a positive vibe and can record what will be a comfortable home League win to set the tone for the season.
You can read my views about Manchester United's upcoming season here.
Partick Thistle v Celtic Pick: At this stage of the season you would have to think that Celtic are going to be very much focused on the Champions League Play Off Round tie against Astana. The First Leg is played on Wednesday, but Celtic have been given the benefit of a Friday night Scottish Premiership time which should be ample time to prepare for the Champions League tie at Celtic Park.
Partick Thistle will be hoping to build on their 6th place finish in the Scottish Premiership from last season, but it can be tough to know exactly how to approach this League fixture. While they impressed with their highest League finish in almost thirty years, it was clear that Partick Thistle didn't really belong with the elite clubs in the Scottish Premiership.
The squad may be considered stronger this season, but I don't think you can ignore the fact Partick Thistle lost 9 of 10 home games against the teams who finished above them in the Scottish Premiership. There is also no doubt that Celtic look head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the Division and they did record 2 big wins at Firhill Stadium last season (1-4 in December and 0-5 in May).
The home team have to hope Celtic are distracted, but Brendan Rodgers has his team playing very well early in the last campaign with the hope of keeping positive momentum behind them going into the Champions League Qualifiers. With a couple of big wins already this week, Celtic look very dangerous here.
Celtic have won 14 in a row at Partick Thistle and 9 of those have come by at least a couple of goals. That includes 5 of the last 6 including both last season and Partick Thistle were beaten by a couple of goals in 3 of 4 matches against Celtic and Aberdeen last season.
Backing Celtic to win here by at least a couple of goals looks to be too big a price and I will look for the Scottish Champions to have some real momentum behind them when they face Astana next week.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest Pick: The opening weeks of a new season can be difficult to get a read on with teams sometimes undercooked at the start and then rapidly making improvements with the quick succession of matches in August. There are 4 games for the teams in the Championship to negotiate by the middle of the month and this is the third of those for Brentford and Nottingham Forest.
Mark Warburton should receive a positive welcome from the Brentford fans having guided them to a Play Off spot before harshly being let go by the owner. Brentford have not been able to match that finish since Warburton left, but the manager is now concerned with Nottingham Forest.
He was not happy with the performance in the 1-0 win over Millwall, while Brentford perhaps deserved more than a defeat at Sheffield United last week. Being at home for the first time may give Brentford the chance to move back level on points with their visitors who had an awful away record last season.
Brentford were inconsistent at home for the second season in a row and that has to be a concern. However they do have goals in the squad and would have been encouraged by the chances Millwall created against Nottingham Forest, while Brentford have beaten Nottingham Forest twice in a row at Griffin Park.
That is enough to have a minimum unit interest on Brentford winning their first home game of the season.
Leeds United v Preston North End Pick: There was a disappointment in the Leeds United fanbase that they could not keep Garry Monk as manager and it was clear how much the supporters are still thankful to their former manager last weekend. However the Thomas Christiansen era has gotten off to a positive start with back to back wins and now the manager looks for a first League win at Elland Road.
7 goals scored in a couple of games will encourage the fans that an exciting season is forthcoming, but Christiansen is likely going to want Leeds United to show better defensive shape.
Elland Road is also going to be an important venue for Leeds United if they want to improve on their 7th place finish from last season. They played well here last season, but still have room for improvement having finished with fewer wins than seven other teams in the Championship.
Leeds United look to be facing the right opponent in Preston North End despite Alex Neil's men getting off to a positive start with a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday last weekend. However they were then beaten 3-2 at Accrington Stanley in the League Cup and Preston North End have not won any of 12 away games in all competitions and lost 5 in a row.
They were also beaten by 6 of the top 7 in the League away from home last season and Preston North End have lost twice in a row at Elland Road since being promoted back into the Championship. I think Leeds United can continue their 100% record in the new season here and are worth a back to win this one.
Sheffield Wednesday v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is still very early in the new League season but earning the first points will still be the only way for players to truly settle into the campaign.
Sheffield Wednesday and Queens Park Rangers both moved into the League Cup Second Round during the week with wins over lower League opposition, but only Queens Park Rangers won on the opening weekend.
Playing at home should give Sheffield Wednesday every chance to win their first League game especially as they look a stronger squad than Queens Park Rangers. The latter did lose at 3 of the top 5 from last season, although they have proved to be a tough nut to crack at times.
Losing 6 of their last 7, including the last 5 in a row, away from home will put Queens Park Rangers in a tough spot and over the last couple of seasons Sheffield Wednesday have generally been able to beat those teams who finished below them at Hillsborough.
It won't be easy to keep the stake to a minimum, but I will look for Sheffield Wednesday to find a way to get the better of Queens Park Rangers here.
Middlesbrough v Sheffield United Pick: Twelve months ago there would have been two Divisions between these teams, but on Saturday Middlesbrough and Sheffield United will be playing in a League game at the Riverside Stadium.
While the thinking may be that Middlesbrough are feeling down after relegation and Sheffield United are on the up following promotion, it is Middlesbrough who are considered favourites in the Championship. This is a squad that has the majority of players from the team that won promotion two years ago, while Garry Monk has been able to add some real firepower.
That didn't look the case in the 1-0 loss at Wolves last weekend, but you have to think Middlesbrough will have goals in the squad and will be there or thereabouts when it comes to promotion places in May.
Sheffield United will be confident having won 1-0 last weekend in their first game at this level in seven years, but they were put under pressure by Brentford and that game was played at Bramall Lane. Playing away from home will be a much tougher test for a newly promoted side and I think it is important to note they lost at both Bolton Wanderers and Millwall who came up with them.
In fact The Blades failed to beat any of the 5 teams immediately below them away from home and this is a big step up in competition for them. I do think Middlesbrough will challenge for promotion and Garry Monk's Leeds United were very strong at home last season.
I expect Middlesbrough to get their first win of the season this weekend.
MY PICKS: Arsenal to Win by One Goal @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Watford-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brentford @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Leeds United @ 2.05 Coral (1 Unit)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Middlesbrough @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
August Update: 2-3-1, - 0.85 Units (6 Units Staked, - 14.17% Yield)
Friday, 4 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 4-6)
The football season is finally back with a bang this weekend with the lower Leagues in England beginning their fixtures and meaning we are just a week away from the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
I will have a fuller post for the Weekend Football Picks next week, but this week I am going to begin with the first football picks of the new season. Time has been an issue for this thread, but hopefully it will be a good start to the season after a pretty poor showing in 2016/17.
Nottingham Forest v Millwall Pick: The Championship season gets underway this weekend and the long, arduous road to the Premier League begins in what is notoriously a difficult League to contend in.
At this stage positive vibes should exist in most football clubs as they put together some heady ambitions for the coming season. Nottingham Forest are definitely feeling more excited than they have in recent years with a new owner at the helm and Mark Warburton in as manager who has had success with Brentford at this level previously.
Losing Britt Assombalonga is a blow, but Nottingham Forest look a much more well rounded squad and the ambitions are to stop the decline in League finishes which have been occurring in recent years. Moving into a position to contend for a place in the Premier League is the ambition of Evangelos Marinakis, but this might be a season too early to think about that.
Any promotion push has to be fuelled by the form at the City Ground where Nottingham Forest were strong last season having secured 12 wins from 23 League games. 7 of those 12 wins came against teams who finished in the bottom half and Nottingham Forest will be looking to get the new era off to a positive start with a win over Millwall on Friday.
Finishing in the bottom half, but outside the bottom three, is likely to be the limit of the ambitions for Millwall this season having come through the League One Play Offs three months ago. Neil Harris has been successful as manager here, but this is a new challenge for him at the higher level and it could be a tough season for Millwall, especially on their travels considering their difficulties at the League One level away from home.
Millwall did win their last 3 League games at the City Ground, but I think the excitement around Nottingham Forest can be transferred to the players in this opening game. Keep stakes to a minimum with the opening weekend always a difficult one to figure out, but I will be backing Nottingham Forest to open this 2017/18 season under new ownership and management with a win.
Sunderland v Derby County Pick: Simon Grayson has helped Preston North End surpass expectations in the Championship and he may be the right person to guide Sunderland and turn around what has been declining performances from the club in recent season. However, like Aston Villa, it feels like Sunderland are going to need time to consolidate in the Championship before they can make a real assault at getting back into the top flight.
Some big names have left the club already and others are set to follow before the close of the transfer deadline. However it can't come quick enough for some players with a video showing Darron Gibson criticising other members of the squad came out in the evening after a 5-0 defeat to Celtic in a preseason friendly last week.
It does feel like Grayson is going to need time to turn things around at Sunderland by changing the culture of the club. A losing habit is hard to shift (again ask Aston Villa) and Sunderland have gotten used to losing plenty of games.
Things definitely feel more positive for Derby County who have a manager in Gary Rowett who was overachieving with Birmingham City before harshly being sacked. The football may not always be pleasing on the eye, but Derby County are sure to be tough to beat and have signed some quality players even though losing Will Hughes and Tom Ince is tough.
It hasn't been a perfect preseason for Derby County and they did struggle away from home at the back end of last season. However I think the organisation may be better than Sunderland and the players may all be pulling in the same direction more than the home team.
The fans might not be right behind the Sunderland players either and they look a vulnerable favourite. The price on the home win has been on the drift so Derby County are not as attractive a back as they were even two weeks ago, but I do like the chances of The Rams avoiding defeat and potentially even winning here.
I would advise keeping stakes to a minimum because teams who look in disarray can surprise on the opening weekend (think back to Hull City beating Leicester City with a skeleton squad last season), but I will look for Derby County on what is the essentially 'Draw No Bet' market.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick: After a season in which they overachieved from the goals set out, Fulham will go into the 2017/18 season with a lot more expectation on their shoulders. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that, but you can't be surprised that so many are tipping Fulham up for promotion when you think they had the second best record in the Championship over the second half of the season.
Falling short in the Play Offs is a negative and Chris Martin has returned to Derby County, but Fulham are still expected to be there or thereabouts at the end of this season. That is certainly more than most will be expecting of Norwich City who have a new manager and will be employing a new style.
Some key players have left Norwich City this summer as Jacob Murphy and Jonny Howson have moved on, while a new manager can mean a new learning curve. Daniel Farke will be looking to replicate what David Wagner did in English Football after learning his trade at Borussia Dortmund, although it does have to be said that Wagner's methods took half a season to take hold.
Goals weren't a problem for Norwich City last season, but defensively they struggled. The side conceded at least twice in all 7 away games at the teams that finished above them in the table last season and this opening day fixture has the chance of being a high-scoring one too.
Fulham home games and Norwich City away games featured plenty of goals last season and I will be looking for at least three goals to be shared out between them here. Opening day games do mean teams are perhaps not as sharp as they would want to be, but these two should be amongst the most attacking teams in the Championship and can provide plenty of entertainment for the fans at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Hull City Pick: Both Aston Villa and Hull City will be feeling that they should still be playing Premier League Football, but there is a tough path to tread to get back into the top flight.
The signing of John Terry has clearly invigorated the Aston Villa support and has to be a reason they are considered the joint favourites to win the Championship this season. I am not sure I am convinced about that until Steve Bruce can get some consistency from his team, but they have definitely been better at home under his guidance.
Being at home on the opening day is important for Aston Villa to try and put some momentum behind them and they look to be facing Hull City at the right time. I thought the same when Leicester City took on Hull City twelve months ago in the Premier League, but on that day Hull City ignored the disarray off the field to secure a win.
They will need to do the same to get the Leonid Slutsky era off to a positive start, but it does feel Hull City are missing numbers and need to do more in the transfer market. They certainly look short of a promotion bid this time around and former manager Steve Bruce can help Aston Villa earn the three points in this one.
Opening day fixtures can be a little haphazard to judge, but I will have an interest in Aston Villa getting the better of Hull City for an eighth time in a row at Villa Park. Aston Villa look more settled than Hull City and I will back them at odds against.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The traditional curtain raiser in England is the Community Shield which is played this Sunday between Arsenal and Chelsea, the two teams who signed off on the 2016/17 season with their match in the FA Cup Final in May. Arsenal were a big underdog that day but managed to earn the 2-1 victory, and they will look for a third consecutive win over Chelsea at Wembley Stadium since August 2015.
The Arsenal fans are still not fully behind Arsene Wenger and the Frenchman cannot afford a slow start in a season where the club will not be playing in the Champions League. Issues in the squad continue to be a problem for Wenger who is adamant that the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez will not be allowed to leave in this transfer window, although the latter continues to be the subject of heavy interest from clubs both at home and abroad.
It is unlikely that Sanchez will be asked to start in this one having recently returned to the club from his Confederations Cup absence and with a Premier League fixture to come next Friday. A lack of investment in the squad won't have impressed the fans and Arsenal will be looking for a morale boosting start to the season like they have achieved in Community Shield wins in 2014 and 2015.
The FA Cup Winners have actually won the last 3 Community Shields.
However Chelsea will feel they can snap that run despite the injuries in the squad and not yet completing their transfer business. They beat Arsenal in a preseason game with relative comfort and the foundations remain strong with the injuries mainly in the forward areas.
They will still likely be able to put a four of Cesc Fabregas, Alvaro Morata, Willian and Michy Batshuayi out on the field and those players are capable of producing the magic Antonio Conte's side may need. An Arsenal team likely to be without Alexis Sanchez don't look as dangerous despite the money they have spent on Alexandre Lacazette and I think Chelsea can take advantage.
This is essentially a glorified friendly so I wouldn't have anything other than a minimum stake on the game. With that in mind, I will look for Chelsea to get the better of Arsenal despite how much the latter have enjoyed playing at Wembley Stadium as I look for The Blues to show a little more defensive strength than the FA Cup Winners.
Celtic v Hearts Pick: At this stage of the season you have to think Brendan Rodgers is only focusing on the Champions League Play Off Round and the upcoming tie against Astana. While he won't want to see his unbeaten record with Celtic in Scotland come to an end, Rodgers is unlikely to risk players who may need a little more time to make sure they are ready for Astana.
They may be playing the right opponent in that respect with Hearts arriving under a cloud having finally decided to get rid of Ian Cathro as manager. The form under Cathro's guidance has been tremendously poor and Hearts really struggled away from home which does not bode well for a trip to Celtic Park.
Even though there are injuries in the Celtic squad, the competitive games played at the level they have been should mean the players in this one are sharper than Hearts. They also dominated Hearts in their 4 meetings in the 2016/17 season and I think the defending Champions can get off to a very positive start.
The layers are expecting a heavy win for Celtic and they did begin last season with plenty of goals being scored. I did consider Celtic winning with a clean sheet, but the defensive injuries put me off, and I do think the home team can produce a solid win on the day.
Covering this Asian Handicap won't be easy, but Celtic have the capability to do that especially at home. Missing Moussa Dembele is a blow, but Hearts come in short of confidence and I will look for Celtic to take advantage of that.
MY PICKS: Nottingham Forest @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Derby County + 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Fulham-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea @ 2.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
I will have a fuller post for the Weekend Football Picks next week, but this week I am going to begin with the first football picks of the new season. Time has been an issue for this thread, but hopefully it will be a good start to the season after a pretty poor showing in 2016/17.
Nottingham Forest v Millwall Pick: The Championship season gets underway this weekend and the long, arduous road to the Premier League begins in what is notoriously a difficult League to contend in.
At this stage positive vibes should exist in most football clubs as they put together some heady ambitions for the coming season. Nottingham Forest are definitely feeling more excited than they have in recent years with a new owner at the helm and Mark Warburton in as manager who has had success with Brentford at this level previously.
Losing Britt Assombalonga is a blow, but Nottingham Forest look a much more well rounded squad and the ambitions are to stop the decline in League finishes which have been occurring in recent years. Moving into a position to contend for a place in the Premier League is the ambition of Evangelos Marinakis, but this might be a season too early to think about that.
Any promotion push has to be fuelled by the form at the City Ground where Nottingham Forest were strong last season having secured 12 wins from 23 League games. 7 of those 12 wins came against teams who finished in the bottom half and Nottingham Forest will be looking to get the new era off to a positive start with a win over Millwall on Friday.
Finishing in the bottom half, but outside the bottom three, is likely to be the limit of the ambitions for Millwall this season having come through the League One Play Offs three months ago. Neil Harris has been successful as manager here, but this is a new challenge for him at the higher level and it could be a tough season for Millwall, especially on their travels considering their difficulties at the League One level away from home.
Millwall did win their last 3 League games at the City Ground, but I think the excitement around Nottingham Forest can be transferred to the players in this opening game. Keep stakes to a minimum with the opening weekend always a difficult one to figure out, but I will be backing Nottingham Forest to open this 2017/18 season under new ownership and management with a win.
Sunderland v Derby County Pick: Simon Grayson has helped Preston North End surpass expectations in the Championship and he may be the right person to guide Sunderland and turn around what has been declining performances from the club in recent season. However, like Aston Villa, it feels like Sunderland are going to need time to consolidate in the Championship before they can make a real assault at getting back into the top flight.
Some big names have left the club already and others are set to follow before the close of the transfer deadline. However it can't come quick enough for some players with a video showing Darron Gibson criticising other members of the squad came out in the evening after a 5-0 defeat to Celtic in a preseason friendly last week.
It does feel like Grayson is going to need time to turn things around at Sunderland by changing the culture of the club. A losing habit is hard to shift (again ask Aston Villa) and Sunderland have gotten used to losing plenty of games.
Things definitely feel more positive for Derby County who have a manager in Gary Rowett who was overachieving with Birmingham City before harshly being sacked. The football may not always be pleasing on the eye, but Derby County are sure to be tough to beat and have signed some quality players even though losing Will Hughes and Tom Ince is tough.
It hasn't been a perfect preseason for Derby County and they did struggle away from home at the back end of last season. However I think the organisation may be better than Sunderland and the players may all be pulling in the same direction more than the home team.
The fans might not be right behind the Sunderland players either and they look a vulnerable favourite. The price on the home win has been on the drift so Derby County are not as attractive a back as they were even two weeks ago, but I do like the chances of The Rams avoiding defeat and potentially even winning here.
I would advise keeping stakes to a minimum because teams who look in disarray can surprise on the opening weekend (think back to Hull City beating Leicester City with a skeleton squad last season), but I will look for Derby County on what is the essentially 'Draw No Bet' market.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick: After a season in which they overachieved from the goals set out, Fulham will go into the 2017/18 season with a lot more expectation on their shoulders. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that, but you can't be surprised that so many are tipping Fulham up for promotion when you think they had the second best record in the Championship over the second half of the season.
Falling short in the Play Offs is a negative and Chris Martin has returned to Derby County, but Fulham are still expected to be there or thereabouts at the end of this season. That is certainly more than most will be expecting of Norwich City who have a new manager and will be employing a new style.
Some key players have left Norwich City this summer as Jacob Murphy and Jonny Howson have moved on, while a new manager can mean a new learning curve. Daniel Farke will be looking to replicate what David Wagner did in English Football after learning his trade at Borussia Dortmund, although it does have to be said that Wagner's methods took half a season to take hold.
Goals weren't a problem for Norwich City last season, but defensively they struggled. The side conceded at least twice in all 7 away games at the teams that finished above them in the table last season and this opening day fixture has the chance of being a high-scoring one too.
Fulham home games and Norwich City away games featured plenty of goals last season and I will be looking for at least three goals to be shared out between them here. Opening day games do mean teams are perhaps not as sharp as they would want to be, but these two should be amongst the most attacking teams in the Championship and can provide plenty of entertainment for the fans at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Hull City Pick: Both Aston Villa and Hull City will be feeling that they should still be playing Premier League Football, but there is a tough path to tread to get back into the top flight.
The signing of John Terry has clearly invigorated the Aston Villa support and has to be a reason they are considered the joint favourites to win the Championship this season. I am not sure I am convinced about that until Steve Bruce can get some consistency from his team, but they have definitely been better at home under his guidance.
Being at home on the opening day is important for Aston Villa to try and put some momentum behind them and they look to be facing Hull City at the right time. I thought the same when Leicester City took on Hull City twelve months ago in the Premier League, but on that day Hull City ignored the disarray off the field to secure a win.
They will need to do the same to get the Leonid Slutsky era off to a positive start, but it does feel Hull City are missing numbers and need to do more in the transfer market. They certainly look short of a promotion bid this time around and former manager Steve Bruce can help Aston Villa earn the three points in this one.
Opening day fixtures can be a little haphazard to judge, but I will have an interest in Aston Villa getting the better of Hull City for an eighth time in a row at Villa Park. Aston Villa look more settled than Hull City and I will back them at odds against.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The traditional curtain raiser in England is the Community Shield which is played this Sunday between Arsenal and Chelsea, the two teams who signed off on the 2016/17 season with their match in the FA Cup Final in May. Arsenal were a big underdog that day but managed to earn the 2-1 victory, and they will look for a third consecutive win over Chelsea at Wembley Stadium since August 2015.
The Arsenal fans are still not fully behind Arsene Wenger and the Frenchman cannot afford a slow start in a season where the club will not be playing in the Champions League. Issues in the squad continue to be a problem for Wenger who is adamant that the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez will not be allowed to leave in this transfer window, although the latter continues to be the subject of heavy interest from clubs both at home and abroad.
It is unlikely that Sanchez will be asked to start in this one having recently returned to the club from his Confederations Cup absence and with a Premier League fixture to come next Friday. A lack of investment in the squad won't have impressed the fans and Arsenal will be looking for a morale boosting start to the season like they have achieved in Community Shield wins in 2014 and 2015.
The FA Cup Winners have actually won the last 3 Community Shields.
However Chelsea will feel they can snap that run despite the injuries in the squad and not yet completing their transfer business. They beat Arsenal in a preseason game with relative comfort and the foundations remain strong with the injuries mainly in the forward areas.
They will still likely be able to put a four of Cesc Fabregas, Alvaro Morata, Willian and Michy Batshuayi out on the field and those players are capable of producing the magic Antonio Conte's side may need. An Arsenal team likely to be without Alexis Sanchez don't look as dangerous despite the money they have spent on Alexandre Lacazette and I think Chelsea can take advantage.
This is essentially a glorified friendly so I wouldn't have anything other than a minimum stake on the game. With that in mind, I will look for Chelsea to get the better of Arsenal despite how much the latter have enjoyed playing at Wembley Stadium as I look for The Blues to show a little more defensive strength than the FA Cup Winners.
Celtic v Hearts Pick: At this stage of the season you have to think Brendan Rodgers is only focusing on the Champions League Play Off Round and the upcoming tie against Astana. While he won't want to see his unbeaten record with Celtic in Scotland come to an end, Rodgers is unlikely to risk players who may need a little more time to make sure they are ready for Astana.
They may be playing the right opponent in that respect with Hearts arriving under a cloud having finally decided to get rid of Ian Cathro as manager. The form under Cathro's guidance has been tremendously poor and Hearts really struggled away from home which does not bode well for a trip to Celtic Park.
Even though there are injuries in the Celtic squad, the competitive games played at the level they have been should mean the players in this one are sharper than Hearts. They also dominated Hearts in their 4 meetings in the 2016/17 season and I think the defending Champions can get off to a very positive start.
The layers are expecting a heavy win for Celtic and they did begin last season with plenty of goals being scored. I did consider Celtic winning with a clean sheet, but the defensive injuries put me off, and I do think the home team can produce a solid win on the day.
Covering this Asian Handicap won't be easy, but Celtic have the capability to do that especially at home. Missing Moussa Dembele is a blow, but Hearts come in short of confidence and I will look for Celtic to take advantage of that.
MY PICKS: Nottingham Forest @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Derby County + 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Fulham-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea @ 2.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
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