Midweek Football Picks 2019 (October 1-3)

Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes centre stage during the week and I am looking to open up October in the same fashion in which September ended.

It was a much stronger month than August, and it was good to wipe out the poor first month of the 2019/20 season. I do want to kick on now and really start producing some strong returns to move forward and the few selections during this week will hopefully begin to do that.


I had wrote a short piece about Manchester United prior to their League Cup win over Rochdale which can be read here. They have an important game in the Europa League this week and a win would mean Manchester United can start thinking about Qualifying for the Last 32 with a couple of games to spare and that is important for a thin squad that will need some rest ahead of the busy December period that all English clubs face.


Onto the Champions League Picks from Match Day 2 and the update to the season totals below.


Real Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: You don't want to completely rule out Club Brugge causing problems for Real Madrid considering how they played in the Group Stage of the Champions League twelve months ago. Atletico Madrid needed late goals to see them off and Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a draw with them at home, while Real Madrid seem to be playing with some vulnerable confidence at the moment.

Even then it is hard to see Real Madrid doing anything but bouncing back after the 3-0 defeat in Paris on Match Day 1. They have looked very good in the League since that defeat to move to the top of the Spanish top flight, and Real Madrid have shown some resiliency with 3 clean sheets in a row.

The return of Nacho and Sergio Ramos will help and I do think Real Madrid are very dangerous at home where they are looking to snap a run of consecutive Champions League defeats. The side have scored at least twice in their last couple of wins here overall and Real Madrid should be able to get on the front foot against Club Brugge who were beaten heavily at Salzburg in the Europa League Last 32 last season.

Club Brugge will be playing with the belief of a team that is unbeaten in 14 games to open the 2019/20 season, but that may not be enough. They can create chances here with the spaces Real Madrid tend to leave behind when getting forward, but I am not sure it will be enough to really challenge a team who want to get this Group back on the right track.

Last season late goals saw Atletico Madrid pull clear of Club Brugge and I think Real Madrid will match that margin of victory.


Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really did fancy Paris Saint-Germain to get the better of Real Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage, but injuries to the front three tempered by enthusiasm for them. It ultimately proved to be little problem for the French Champions who deservedly won on the day and Paris Saint-Germain have to be looking to secure a Last 16 place as soon as possible.

Wins over Galatasaray and then in the double header with Club Brugge over the next month will put Paris Saint-Germain through to the Last 16 and I do think they are capable of doing that.

Both away games will be difficult beginning with this trip to Istanbul, but Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of their 12 away Champions League Group games and they have also won back to back away games in the competition overall at Crvena Zvezda and Manchester United.

Playing in Istanbul is rarely an easy task for any team in European Football and Galatasaray are unbeaten in 14 at home in all competitions. That has to be respected, but both Porto and Benfica won here in the Champions League and Europa League respectively last season and this Paris Saint-Germain team are stronger than those two even without Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

This won't always be easy for Paris Saint-Germain, but they have been defending well enough in recent away games to lay the foundation for success here. The chances created in Bordeaux is encouraging even if they have been lacking goals away from home and I think there is enough here to back Paris Saint-Germain to record a good looking win on the night and earn their third away win in a row in the Champions League.


Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The layers are not going to be offering anything too short in terms of a margin of victory for Manchester City in this fixture and I am not surprised when you think of the amount of goals the English Champions have been scoring. It is very difficult to see how Dinamo Zagreb are going to keep it competitive against a team who have scored four or more goals in 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games.

The win over Atalanta will make Dinamo Zagreb believe, but that was at home and this is a club who have lost 12 away games in a row in the Champions League Group Stage. A lot of those defeats have been by wide margins and I think Manchester City have rested enough big name players to believe they are going to produce a very strong win in this one.

It is a big Asian Handicap though and it will need a three goal margin of victory to secure a full payout, but I would be surprised if Manchester City did not win by that margin. The defensive problems are a concern as one goal for the visitors would make it very difficult to see how Manchester City can cover the number, but I think Dinamo Zagreb will soon see this as a damage limitation exercise.

Fast starts have been common for Manchester City since the 3-2 defeat to Norwich City and they have scored within 25 minutes in each of the four wins since then. Another one would set them up for a big win on Tuesday and put Manchester City in a very strong position to Qualify and win this Group before the end of November.

I think Dinamo Zagreb will find their 4-0 win over Atalanta on Match Day 1 has not really prepared them for a test like this and Manchester City can win easily enough on the day.


Barcelona v Inter Milan Pick: It sounds like Barcelona will have some attacking players back in contention for a starting spot for the Match Day 2 game in the Champions League, although Lionel Messi is a doubt.

Both Barcelona and Inter Milan drew their opening Champions League games which has increased the importance of this one as they look to get going in a difficult looking Group. The Barcelona draw in Dortmund certainly looks more positive than the home draw Inter Milan had with Slavia Prague and I do think the Italian club are built for success domestically and perhaps not in the European competitions.

Inter Milan appointed Antonio Conte to break the Juventus domination of Serie A and the manager has had his best successes in domestic competitions. He has struggled for an impact in the Champions League and Inter Milan looked short of ideas in their home draw with Slavia Prague.

Now they have to face a Barcelona team that remain very strong at home and who have won 29 of 32 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League. A Lionel Messi-less Barcelona beat Inter Milan 2-0 here last season and I think they can do the same on Wednesday on Match Day 2 of the Group Stage this time around too.

Barcelona have been scoring plenty of goals at home and they should be able to break down an Inter Milan team who do have questions to answer at the back. The Italian side will head to Spain with some confidence from their League form and they do have attacking players to make a difference, but Barcelona should be too strong on the day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is the selection.


Lille v Chelsea Pick: Both Lille and Chelsea were beaten on Match Day 1 of the Champions League which means this could be a vital game for both in their bids to get Qualification to the Last 16 back on track.

This should be a good match with both Lille and Chelsea capable of playing impressive attacking football while perhaps not looking as secure at the back as they would like.

Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every away game played under Frank Lampard and Lille have managed two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 home games going back to last season. All four played this season have seen Lille hit that mark so they will feel they can get hurt their visitors on Match Day 2.

On the other side Chelsea have scored eight goals in their last couple of away games and played well on their travels in the Europa League last season. The Blues have scored at least three goals in their last 2 away games at Norwich City and Wolves, and I do think they can challenge a Lille team who won't have faced too many teams of the quality of Chelsea on a regular basis.

Both teams will feel they can get on the scoreboard here and the importance of the three points should help encourage an attacking and expansive game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call here.


Liverpool v Salzburg Pick: This has the makings of a really good Champions League game with the approach that both Liverpool and Salzburg will take to the game.

While many teams will head to Anfield and look to be tight and well organised defensively, Salzburg have shown in the last couple of years in the Europa League that they are willing to take chances with their attacking play. Last season they were beaten 3-0 in Naples in the Europa League Last 16, but Salzburg created plenty of good chances of their own and they must recognise that the Liverpool defence is not playing as well as it was last season.

The absence of Alisson does leave Liverpool a little vulnerable at the back, but attacking this team at Anfield can expose defences to the much vaunted front three who should all be starting for the home team. Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have the perfect blend of pace and creativity in the final third and I do expect they will be in a position to hurt Salzburg in this one too.

Liverpool have been very strong at Anfield and 10 of their last 11 here have ended with wins by two or more goals. They also have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the Champions League and I do think the defeat in Napoli on Match Day 1 will focus the players for a big performance here.

I would not be surprised if Salzburg score here, but I think their attacking intent will leave them open to the home team too. It could be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals when two attacking teams take the field, but at the end of the fixture I would expect Liverpool have won by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lille-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 15-17)

The Premier League is back this weekend after a two week break and this thread is going to cover the Picks to be made from the fixtures that will be played over three days.

August was a decent month, but September did not start as well as expected so I am looking for a much better outcome from the weekend's matches ahead of the start of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage opening matches during the week.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League returns with a bang this weekend as Tottenham Hotspur prepare to take on Liverpool and there has been a big drift on the home prices which means they go into this one as the underdog.

In another dimension Tottenham Hotspur are opening up New White Hart Lane to significant fanfare, but in this dimension they have to return to Wembley Stadium. That might not be all bad news for a team who have won 11 of their last 14 games in the national Stadium and the return of Heung-Min Son from international duty is a huge boost for the team.

The 2-1 loss to Watford was a really disappointing result, especially as Tottenham Hotspur came off a fantastic 0-3 win at Old Trafford but they look to be have been written off a little too much in this one.

Liverpool have won all 4 Premier League games played this season, but they have yet to better a result they achieved in the corresponding fixture from last season. The side were a little fortunate in their win over Leicester City and now they are in for the first really significant test of their Premier League title credentials on Saturday.

Sadio Mane is in fine form and Liverpool have goals in the side which makes them dangerous, but the backline is going to be challenged more than they have so far this season. Last year they couldn't handle the Tottenham Hotspur attack who scored twice at Anfield as well as the four goals at Wembley Stadium and even a slightly out of form Tottenham Hotspur poses a big challenge.

I would be surprised if Tottenham Hotspur were to lose this one. Harry Kane might not be firing just yet, but the returning Son is a boost and defensively Tottenham Hotspur have generally been much better than what they displayed against Watford. The World Cup will have an affect on the players even at this stage of the season which is a concern, but I do think Liverpool have yet to be tested and I am not buying into the hype as much as some of the fans will.

You can actually pick up Tottenham Hotspur with a start on the Asian Handicap at a decent price and that will be my selection. I personally think Tottenham Hotspur can do enough to edge to the victory as they bounce back from the poor display at Watford, but even a draw would provide a profit in that situation.

Liverpool have won their games, which has to be respected, but they have looked far from convincing and I will take a start with a surprising home underdog.


Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: Games between Bournemouth and Leicester City have promised much but failed to really live up to the expectations in recent years.

Both teams have quality attacking players and you would think they would gel together with Eddie Howe looking for his team to dictate the play and Leicester City being used to open up the counter attack.

For one reason or another goals have tended not to flow when they have met one another, but the early season form suggests they can hit the goal trail in this fixture on Saturday.

Bournemouth have looked very effective going forward and looking to score goals, but they remain a vulnerable team at the back. That should be exposed by a well rested Jamie Vardy who is back from suspension for Leicester City although The Foxes have had anything but a watertight defence in the early weeks of the season.

That should mean we see a couple of teams who are able to get forward and score goals and I would be surprised if both teams were not able to get on the scoreboard in this one. With the attacking intent Bournemouth have played with to open this season I think they will keep this an open game and that should mean we can find a winner and look for at least three goals to be shared out between two teams who have made a good start to the 2018/19 season.


Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The next month between the two international breaks will tell us a lot about where Chelsea stand and whether they are a genuine Premier League title contender, but it would be a real surprise if they can't keep their 100% record moving onto another week this weekend.

A home game with Cardiff City should be very much a fixture that Chelsea are able to dominate, although you do have to wonder how players are feeling when returning from their international commitments.

One player I don't worry about is Eden Hazard who looks to be playing at a very high level having continued scoring goals for Belgium during the international fixtures. He has been in good form for Chelsea following on from a very strong World Cup and I do think the home team will prove too strong for a Cardiff City team that could struggle for goals.

Neil Warnock will look to make Cardiff City hard to beat away from home, but this is a big step up for a team who were not expected to be anywhere near the promotion places in the Championship last season. The squad hasn't seen a lot of investment in the summer transfer window and it will be down to Warnock's motivational skills to try and keep the club in the top flight.

Fixtures like this won't determine that for Cardiff City but Warnock won't want to see his team embarrassed and they will try and frustrate Chelsea for as long as possible. However I think the Maurizio Sarri methods will see The Blues put a lot of pressure on the Cardiff City backline throughout this one and I believe the home team will be too strong on the day.

It is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but Chelsea have been scoring plenty of goals and look like a team that will create chances. That may be too much for a goal-shy Cardiff City team and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap which will produce a profit as long as Chelsea win by at least two goals on the day.


Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have to be circling fixtures like this one as being very important in their bid to reach the 40 point mark in the Premier League which will keep them in the top flight.

David Wagner will fully appreciate the tough job he has on his hands to keep The Terriers in the Premier League for a third consecutive season having seen Huddersfield Town struggle in the second half of the 2017/18 season. That drop in level of performance has come into the new season too and Huddersfield Town could feel a little fortunate to even have 2 points on the board.

On the other hand Crystal Palace do think they have deserved more than the single win they have earned in their first 4 League games. They had the chances to do better than their 0-2 defeat to Southampton last time out and Roy Hodgson has to be pleased to have Wilfried Zaha potentially available for this fixture.

Crystal Palace certainly have more going forward with Zaha in the line up and even the absence of Christian Benteke should not have a big impact on The Eagles. They have looked like they can create a lot more chances than Huddersfield Town and that can make the difference when these teams meet on Saturday.

If you're a home fan you have to be worried that Huddersfield Town have not scored in 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions including in both games played this season. The goal issue has not really not been resolved and I think that will contribute to an away win here as I do think Crystal Palace have more chances in them and definitely more goals.

Backing Crystal Palace on the Asian Handicap will return the stake in the event of a draw and that looks a reasonable way to go in this fixture.


Manchester City v Fulham Pick: This is a very tough task for Fulham coming out of the international break especially if they don't change the style they have produced through the first month of the season. An open, attacking system has to be praised, but Fulham have been very suspect at the back and have allowed opponents to create significant opportunities to score goals.

Tottenham Hotspur scored three times against Fulham and Crystal Palace, Burnley and Brighton have all scored twice as the open style employed by The Cottagers has seen them struggle at the back.

Going to the Etihad Stadium it is a big ask of Fulham to play that way even if they will give Manchester City a few problems doing that. Manchester City have not had a clean sheet in their last 3 Premier League games which means Fulham may be encouraged to get forward, but Manchester City have created a lot of chances in their matches and I think it is going to be very difficult for Fulham to contain them.

As with many home games Manchester City will be asked to cover a big Asian Handicap and a Fulham goal would make it very difficult to do that. Losing Kevin De Bruyne is a blow for Manchester City but they have the talented players who can make up for the Belgian's absence for the next couple of months and this is a team who have created enough chances to think they are never too far away from handing out a big defeat to opponents.

With the style Fulham have used I think they will be a good match up for Manchester City and I will back the home team to produce a win that can see them cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: This is the third home game of the season for Newcastle United and they are facing yet another club that finished in the top six last season. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have deservedly won here this season, but this Arsenal team are still finding their feet under Unai Emery which may make them vulnerable as a short priced favourite.

However I have been impressed with the chances Arsenal have been creating in their games under Emery and they did have a very good record at St James' Park before the 2-1 defeat here a few months ago.

On that occasion Arsenal did take the lead before losing, but I am not sure this current Newcastle United squad have the kind of confidence to be able to recover from a deficit. I know they have fallen behind to Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City and found an equaliser, but Newcastle United have not created a lot of chances in those games and still look short of goals which makes me believe they are not going to be capable of continuing to fight back in these bigger games.

Arsenal have been far from convincing at the back which is an issue for them to resolve, but that may take time as the players get used to the methods Emery wants to employ. Even with those problems in mind, Arsenal have looked very good going forward and are creating plenty of chances which makes it tough for Newcastle United to look to contain them.

The home team will be backed by a passionate crowd, but Arsenal handled the occasion in a 2-3 win at Cardiff City prior to the international break and I think they will have too much for Newcastle United. They are barely odds on for this fixture, and I would have liked a slightly better price, but Arsenal look the better team and are playing with a real goal threat.

I feel they will have at least two goals in them at St James' Park on Saturday and I simply don't think Newcastle United will be able to match them with the limited threat posed so far this season. The home team may score, but it won't be enough to avoid defeat as far as I am concerned.


Watford v Manchester United Pick: This is a good looking match on Saturday afternoon as Watford look to bring the momentum of 5 straight wins into a fixture where they are hoping to take down another of the top six clubs from last season. The performances have been decent from Watford, but you can't help feel they have ridden their luck a little bit to the results and this is a big test for them out of the international break.

With Watford you know they will bring hard work and some decent attacking quality onto the field, but with Manchester United it is much harder to predict these days.

After back to back League defeats to Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur where Manchester United conceded three times in each loss, the side bounced back with a good display at Turf Moor to knock off Burnley.

There are still some questions for Jose Mourinho's team to answer, but they have been creating decent chances which suggests a decent run can be put together before facing Chelsea after the next international break. This is a tough game, but it is followed by Wolves, West Ham United and Newcastle United in the Premier League and Young Boys and Valencia in the Champions League which means the Burnley win can be built upon.

If Manchester United create the chances they did against Spurs and Burnley I would think they can win here. They scored four times in a victory at Vicarage Road last season and Manchester United look like a team who have shown signs of quality attacking football to break down a resilient Watford team.

Defensively Manchester United have been far from convincing which makes it hard to completely trust them but at just under odds against prices I do think Mourinho's men can win here and start putting some momentum together.


Wolves v Burnley Pick: As soon as Burnley qualified for the Europa League Qualifiers and failed to make the kind of investment in the playing staff that was expected in the summer it felt like this squad would be stretched playing the Thursday-Sunday schedule.

That has to be a real contributory factor in the poor start made by Burnley although they have also been a little unlucky in fixtures as teams have taken the chances they have created and Burnley's defence has not been as strong as it was last season.

I do expect things to turn around for Burnley now they are back to solely concentrating on the Premier League and they look a little underrated to earn a result in the first live game on Sunday afternoon.

Wolves have played well this season and could have earned more than the 5 points they have put on the board, but they haven't been so strong to think they deserve to be as short a price to win this fixture. The team do look decent enough going forward, but Wolves have yet to bring in the defensive strength which formed the platform of their success in the Championship as they won that Division in May.

Both teams should have their chances in this one and I am anticipating a close match. I don't think Burnley will defend as poorly as they have in August now the players are going to be more rested to put in the effort they need in the Premier League fixtures they have coming up and I think that makes them an interesting back on the Asian Handicap this weekend.

While I can understand why Wolves are favourites to win, this is a team still learning how to cope with the higher level and demands of the Premier League compared with the Championship. They do have players that could provide a magic moment or two to win this one, but Burnley are capable of scoring here which could make it very difficult for Wolves to win the game.

Backing the away team with the start on the Asian Handicap means half the stake would be returned if Burnley lose by a single goal margin, but I do think Sean Dyche's men can earn a result on Sunday. They will have to play better than they were going into the international break, but Burnley could also have a little bit more luck than they have enjoyed so far in the 2018/19 season and that could see Burnley earn a 'surprise' positive result in this one.


Everton v West Ham United Pick: There may be a contrasting feeling of confidence in the squads that are meeting in the second live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon, but Everton and West Ham United may be more closely matched than the oddsmakers think.

The injuries and suspensions in the Everton squad makes them vulnerable even at home with a number of defensive absentees giving West Ham United a chance. As poor as the results have been for The Hammers, they have shown some strength going forward and I think West Ham United will be able to cause some problems for their hosts.

Everton are missing some key attacking players, most notably Richarlison, but they are facing a West Ham United defence which has struggled. Theo Walcott and Dominic Calvert-Lewin's availability gives Everton some options going forward and this West Ham United team have given up some big chances in their games already this season which Everton will feel they can expose.

Both managers have attacking intentions too and it does feel like a fixture that is going to produce at least three goals on the day. My gut feeling is that West Ham United may snap a poor recent record at Goodison Park by earning a positive result in this one, but I will favour backing goals to be shared out with both Marco Silva and Manuel Pellegrini asking their team to get forward and score goals.

Everton have looked as vulnerable as West Ham United defensively and I can see the attacking players leading the way in an entertaining match.


Southampton v Brighton Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from St Mary's on Monday evening and both Southampton and Brighton will be keen to stamp their authority on this south coast rivalry.

Brighton have motivation for revenge after being beaten by Southampton in the League Cup Second Round in August, but they have a very poor away record over the last twelve months which can't be ignored.

You have to respect the fact that Brighton did earn a 1-1 draw at St Mary's in the Premier League, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away games and this is a team who struggle to create chances on their travels. Defensively they have not been as strong as they can be at the Amex Stadium and Southampton have some decent attacking players who will feel they can do enough to help Mark Hughes' men earn a third consecutive win in all competitions.

I do think Southampton can be more effective as a counter attacking team which may have contributed to their run of 1 win from their last 13 home Premier League games. Here there is more onus on Southampton to get forward which may not suit them as much as inviting the pressure to come onto them, but I think The Saints are playing well enough to win this one.

Chris Hughton's team will have to be a lot better defensively to avoid defeat as they can't match the scoring output of other clubs in the Premier League. They have been better at home, like last season, but playing away from the Amex Stadium has been more of a challenge for them and I think Southampton can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Update: 1-5, - 6.50 Units (12 Units Staked, - 54.17% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 10-12)

After one of the best World Cup tournaments that I have experienced in my lifetime, the Premier League is back less than a month after the World Cup Final was played.

Teams have been shaping their squads much earlier than usual after the decision was made to move the summer transfer window forward to end before the new season began for the first time. Most clubs looked happy enough with the decision to do that, but some have missed out on adding significantly to the squad with two of the top four from last season being particularly quiet.

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have to believe they have a squad to at least maintain their top four spots, but they don't look like they will be much closer to Manchester City and Liverpool could have overtaken both.

I will have my first 'United Corner' of the season posted in the middle of next week, but a short summary of the summer is it has been an underwhelming window and Jose Mourinho will have to get more out of players that he has signed previously. The arrival of Fred looks a good piece of business and Alexis Sanchez will be at his most freshest at this time of the season for years after Chile missed out on the World Cup so there is plenty of positives to take into the season rather than the 'doom and gloom' we have seen.

More on that next week once the Leicester fixture is out of the way.


The title race looks like it will come down to Manchester City and Liverpool which really is tough to write or read for any Manchester United fan out there. However they look the two teams to beat although I still give Manchester City a slight edge which may see them retain the Premier League title and become the first club to do that since Manchester United a decade ago.

I expect Chelsea and Arsenal to be closer to the top four this season and it could be a case of four teams trying to get into what looks like two places. Both Chelsea and Arsenal have new voices in the dressing room though and it may take some time to really get a feel for what Maurizio Sarri and Unai Emery want from the players at those respective clubs and so both Chelsea and Arsenal may be looking at the Europa League as a better route back into the Champions League.


The middle of the Premier League can always see teams move up and down very quickly as we saw last season and I am not convinced Burnley will be able to be as productive as they were in the 2017/18 season. The possible addition of the Europa League for a small squad will make it much tougher to finish as high as 7th especially with the likes of Everton, Crystal Palace, West Ham United, Leicester City, Wolves and Fulham all looking like they have strong squads and could possibly sneak into European Football for next season.

Those clubs will all be looking for a strong League Cup or FA Cup run too as some new faces enter the Premier League following promotion from the Championship and other clubs have new managers taking charge.


The relegation battle looks an interesting one this season, but I would be surprised if Cardiff City can follow the likes of Huddersfield Town and Brighton and surprisingly avoid an immediate return to the Championship. For all of the praise Neil Warnock gets, he has regularly been found out at the Premier League level and the squad looks to lack the quality to survive at this level.

I also expect Huddersfield Town to struggle having earned the majority of the points in the first half of the season. They finished with the 19th best record in the Premier League during the second half and have a difficult opening to 2018/19 which may leave The Terriers fighting against relegation from the opening weekend.

Southampton and Watford both had difficult times in the second half of the season, but I expect the former to be better under Mark Hughes and Watford always seem to do enough to avoid the drop.

Personally I would be worried as a Newcastle United fan, especially if Rafa Benitez decides enough is enough, and Brighton will be another club who could have a difficult second season at this level.


The World Cup turned out to be a very productive tournament for the Football Picks with a winning record on the board from an exciting World Cup Finals. Last season was much more difficult with some difficult months knocking me back, but a new season is always a time for optimism and below you can see the opening picks from the new season which begins on Friday 10th August 2018.


Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: Less than a month after the World Cup Final was played and won by France the Premier League is back in action much to the disgust of Jose Mourinho.

It has been a difficult pre-season for Mourinho and Manchester United with so many players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup, but the negative attitude of the manager has to be a worry going into his third season as manager of this club.

Most of those players won't be involved on Friday night and Manchester United are hoping they have added to the squad before the Summer Transfer Window closes on Thursday. Any addition is unlikely to be involved on Friday anyway so it is up to some younger players like Andrea Pereira or new signings like Fred to make an immediate impact for the club.

Mourinho has suggested Leicester City are in a better position than Manchester United to begin the Premier League, but The Foxes have lost Riyad Mahrez this summer and are unlikely to have Harry Maguire and Jamie Vardy for the opening fixture.

Claude Puel is also under pressure to make a strong start with so many questioning his credentials as manager of Leicester City. Without some key players it may be difficult for Leicester City to make a good start at Old Trafford, but they could dig in and make life very difficult for a Manchester United team who have not been the most threatening going forward in their pre-season games.

Pre-season doesn't mean a lot, but Manchester United are missing some key players which may restrict their attacking creativity. However they are facing a Leicester City team who lost at 7 of the 8 clubs that finished above them last season and who were beaten by 8 of the top 9 the season before last too.

However it feels it may take some time for Manchester United in this one and I am not anticipating a lot of goals even if 4 of the last 5 between these clubs have finished with at least three goals shared out. The exception came at Old Trafford last season and the potential absence of Vardy coupled with Mahrez' exit from the club suggests goals could be tough to find here.

I do think Manchester United will edge it though with Alexis Sanchez and Juan Mata able to create enough for the home team. It may not always be pretty but backing Manchester United to win a game featuring no more than three goals looks a decent price at odds against.


Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The upheaval at Newcastle United shows very little sign of settling down but every time you think Mike Ashley will think about selling the club he tightens his grip and refuses to let go.

Once again Ashley has cut the purse strings to manager Rafa Benitez and so this looks another season in which the Spanish manager will have to get more out of this squad of players than looks possible.

Goals have been a problem for Newcastle United and I am not convinced Solomon Rondon will be the answer, while they are a team who can struggle under the weight of expectation the home fans have of them. However Benitez has managed to use the passion in a strong enough way that Newcastle United won more Premier League home games than the likes of Burnley and Crystal Palace last season.

The players were clearly encouraged when the big clubs visited too having lost just 2 games at St James' Park to the top six in the Premier League. One of those losses did come against Tottenham Hotspur, but it was goalless until Jonjo Shelvey was sent off and this looks another tough opening away fixture for Spurs who played here on opening weekend last season.

This time Tottenham Hotspur have a number of players returning from the World Cup who may not be involved from the off. That could include the likes of Dele Alli, Jan Vertonghen and Harry Kane although the latter two could earn a start here as Tottenham Hotspur look for a positive opening to the season.

The lack of pre-season for those players has to be a concern and you can see why Tottenham Hotspur are odds against to win here. Spurs have managed to find a way to win in 3 of their last 4 visits to this part of the North East though and I think they may edge out this Newcastle United team whose players refused to fulfil TV commitments earlier this week because of a row about bonuses.

It may be a distraction that prevents the home team from being at their very best and I think this Tottenham Hotspur squad is more settled. Even with the World Cup players potentially missing out, I will back Tottenham Hotspur to find a victory on a tough ground and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to secure that.


Bournemouth v Cardiff City Pick: I am not a big fan of Neil Warnock but I respect what he has managed to do in his career by guiding a number of clubs up to the Premier League.

Warnock helped Cardiff City to a surprise promotion last season but he has been found out previously in the Premier League and this squad doesn't look like one that is equipped to survive in the top flight.

In saying that Warnock will make Cardiff City tough to beat and this group of players will have an adrenaline rush following promotion which makes them dangerous early in the campaign. We saw that work for Huddersfield Town last season and a strong start to the season will give Cardiff City every chance of surviving, while Neil Warnock came close to keeping Sheffield United in the Premier League a decade ago.

The opening weekend will give us some clue as to what to expect from Cardiff City when they visit a Bournemouth team who are looking for more consistency this season. Eddie Howe wasn't all that impressed with the way The Cherries ended the 2017/18 season and there hasn't been a host of arrivals at the club which has made Bournemouth a 'dark horse' pick for relegation.

Personally I think Bournemouth are a little too good to go down as they have tended to beat the teams they should to keep their heads above water. 5 of their 7 home wins came against teams that finished below them in the Premier League table including beating all 3 teams that were eventually relegated, while the season before Bournemouth had 9 home wins and 7 against those that finished below them.

Even in that season they beat 2 of the 3 relegated clubs and I think that will be the outcome of this fixture if the season predictions are correct. I do think Cardiff City will struggle and Bournemouth have tended to win fixtures like this one so I will back the home team to secure the three points here.

Opening day can be a tough weekend to predict results as shown when Huddersfield Town crushed Crystal Palace 0-3 and Burnley won 2-3 at Stamford Bridge last season. Cardiff City have plenty of momentum having earned promotion back in May, but Bournemouth have enough goals to break them down here and I will look for Eddie Howe's men to get off to a positive start.


Fulham v Crystal Palace Pick: The return of Fulham to the Premier League will be met with some excitement by the home fans as well as visiting ones who have always enjoyed Craven Cottage.

This looks a good football team that have come up from the Championship and Fulham have made some good looking signings which will have the fans believing they can join Huddersfield Town and avoid relegation after coming up through the Play Offs.

Ryan Sessegnon may receive the majority of the attention from the media, but it is the signing of Jean Michael Seri that has really raised the eyebrows. Craven Cottage is going to be a key venue for Fulham if they are going to avoid the drop and this looks like being a tough place for any team to visit.

However the style of football may also encourage visitors to play their own attacking football and Crystal Palace have plenty of pace to challenge Fulham. The Eagles only won 4 of their 19 away League games last season although 3 of those came against teams that finished in the bottom five of the table.

Keeping Wilfried Zaha, which Crystal Palace have at the time of writing, could be huge for Roy Hodgson in having another successful season at the club. He will offer a real attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I think they play their part in what could be an entertaining fixture on the opening weekend of the season.

Fulham are unlikely to have dropped their attacking style from last season and Crystal Palace will feel they can exploit spaces with the pace they have. Games between Fulham and Crystal Palace have produced plenty of goals in their most recent meetings and these two teams can continue that trend with the attackers that will be on display here.

Slightly cooler weather in London should help in creating an entertaining spectacle and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between these clubs.


Huddersfield Town v Chelsea Pick: There is absolutely no doubt that it is going to take some time to see the best of Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri regardless of the comings and goings at the club. Losing Thibaut Courtois, which looks very likely when I am writing this, is a blow, but it is better than losing Eden Hazard who could have a huge season under Sarri and the attacking style the former Napoli manager will bring to the club.

It is a different style to what was demanded of the players from Antonio Conte and that is the main reason it may take some time to bed in. Any new signings might not begin to make the impact Sarri would want until they get used to playing in the Premier League and so the first couple of months may be difficult for Chelsea.

Even with that in mind I do think they will have too much quality for this Huddersfield Town team who have not made the kind of improvements they would have perhaps needed from last season. David Wagner does get plenty out of his players and they should be a little more ready than Chelsea who may not have Hazard or Willian in their starting line up.

That does make this a dangerous opening game for Chelsea but I do think they can put the pressure on the home team with the high press that will be demanded of them from the manager. Last season Chelsea were beaten 2-3 at home by Burnley so you can't rule out the upset, but I think Huddersfield Town may continue to struggle for goals which is a real issue for them in their fight to avoid the drop.

Huddersfield Town were beaten in 5 of their 6 home games against the top six clubs last season and they conceded at least two goals in 4 of those defeats. Chelsea can still call on enough quality to win this fixture and I think they can force a few mistakes from The Terriers which can help them earn an important three points to open this season.

I can see the home team playing their part in this one, especially with Chelsea being slight undercooked for the new season, but ultimately I think The Blues will have too much for them. Backing the away team to win a game which features at least two goals looks a decent price here and that is the way I will approach this opening weekend fixture.


Wolves v Everton Pick: There is a new era dawning at both Wolves and Everton and they get a chance to see where each club stands when they meet on the opening weekend of the Premier League 2018/19 season.

Some may suggest Wolves entered a new era last season when they dominated the Championship, but the return to the Premier League will still be a real challenge for this squad of players. The lack of experience of playing in the Premier League is a real concern and a poor start can see things spiral, although Wolves performed well enough in the Championship to think they can have success at this level too.

For Everton they have finally been able to bring in Marco Silva as manager of the club and he is beginning to shape the squad to his liking. The real key for the new manager will be getting more out of the players already with the Everton squad although I expect more additions to add to Richarlison and Lucas Digne ahead of the close of the transfer window which will give Everton a boost.

There are some solid players already here and Silva's attacking style may be able to get the best of them. His time with Watford showed that Silva's style can work in the Premier League, although he will want Everton to show more defensively having been inconsistent at the back.

Signing a new centre half may help in the long term, but the short term of this fixture it may be more of an issue for Everton. This Wolves team scored 47 goals in 23 home League games last season and they have added Joao Moutinho to give them more creativity so I would expect them to challenge this Everton team when they go forward.

The same could be said for Everton who have some quality attacking players that may be pleased to be playing in Marco Silva's system. Scoring goals was something of an issue for Everton away from home, but Silva's Watford were a free-scoring team and I think Everton will be set up to be very positive going forward to get the best out of Richarlison, Theo Walcott and Cenk Tosun.

It really feels this could be a good game of football to watch on Saturday afternoon in the second of the live offerings from the Premier League. Both teams should have the chances to get on the scoreboard and the 1-1 score is a real player, but I believe both Nuno Espirito Santo and Marco Silva will be looking to get a positive start on the board for their clubs and they could easily share out three goals.

At the prices it looks worth backing goals in this one and I will look for at least three to be scored at Molineux on Saturday.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: The first Premier League game to be shown live on Sunday in the 2018/19 will come from Anfield as one of the hot tips to win the Premier League open their League campaign against West Ham United.

Put aside the fact that Jurgen Klopp has proven to be a hypocrite for criticising the amount of money other clubs spend just two seasons ago and you can see why Liverpool are considered the club most likely to challenge Manchester City for the Premier League title this season.

They have made big purchases to improve the problematic goalkeeping position as well as upgrading their midfield options by bringing in Fabinho and Naby Keita. With a front three who look full of goals, Liverpool fans will be expecting big silverware at the end of the season having come so close to winning the Champions League in May.

The squad depth has been added to by bringing in Xherdan Shaqiri too and it is no surprise that Liverpool are big favourites to beat West Ham United on Sunday.

However Manuel Pellegrini has arrived at West Ham United and immediately made an impact by being given the funds to make some quality additions to the club. A strong pre-season has many of the fans believing this is going to be a very strong season for The Hammers and the owners will be hoping the same to avoid the unsavoury scenes that have been seen at the London Stadium in the last couple of years.

It is a huge test from the off for West Ham United who have been given a difficult looking start to the season in terms of fixtures. They have to head to Arsenal in a couple of weeks and also have to play at Everton and host Chelsea and Manchester United before the end of September.

Even then I do think this is an improved West Ham United team and I think they will offer a real test to Liverpool on Sunday. You can only imagine Liverpool will be better at Anfield than last season when they drew too many games here, but the defensive injuries will give West Ham United a chance to play a part here in a Stadium where they have enjoyed some success in recent years.

West Ham United scored in both heavy losses to Liverpool last season and they have looked good in pre-season while also having a squad that looks to be clearer of injuries than at most points last season. With Liverpool likely missing some of their defensive options for this one, West Ham United can score here for the 4th time in 6 visits to Anfield.

It is almost impossible to think Liverpool won't score having managed that in 16 of their 19 home League games last season and I will back both teams to do that in this live game.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Unai Emery is going to be welcomed as Arsenal manager for the first time in the Premier League this weekend and he might be wondering who he has offended to be given such a difficult start to the new era at the Emirates Stadium.

Facing Champions Manchester City and then heading to Stamford Bridge the following week is a tough opening to the season for any club, but Arsenal have to try and embrace the challenge.

In all honesty they may not be able to play Manchester City or Chelsea at a better time with both clubs bringing back key performers who played in the latter stages of the World Cup and Chelsea also having a new manager and new ideas to implement.

Even then it will be a tough test for Arsenal and Emery who has made some decent signings for his new club as they bid to move on from the Arsene Wenger era. Arsenal look like they could be closer to the top four this season having finished 12 points behind 4th placed Liverpool in May, although the challenge will be improving away from home.

At the Emirates Stadium Arsenal won 15 of 19 League games last season and they managed 14 wins from 19 the season before. However both losses here last season came against the top two teams and the Arsenal players won't have forgotten the way they were beaten by Manchester City in all 3 games against them in the 2017/18 season.

Arsenal conceded three times in all of those games and were well beaten in the League Cup Final while they were 0-3 down after 33 minutes in the League game here. At least this Manchester City team could be without the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and Raheem Sterling, but even then they showed how good they could be in their dominant Community Shield win over Chelsea last weekend.

Riyad Mahrez has come in to give Pep Guardiola more options while Benjamin Mendy's return from injury means the left back position has been improved from last season. This is definitely going to be a tough place to play this season for visiting teams with the tactically astute Unai Emery unlikely to leave Arsenal as open as Arsene Wenger may have done, but there is still a real gap in quality between these clubs.

I do think Arsenal will be improved from last season and they have an attacking threat that cannot be ignored, but Manchester City may just have a little too much for them. While The Gunners have signed some defensive reinforcements, I am not sure it is enough to keep out a very good Manchester City team with creativity running through the side and I am willing to back the Champions at odds against to win here.

Some of the absentees are a blow for Manchester City, but they may still dominate possession and that can lead to the Champions earning the three points in a tough live game to be played on Sunday afternoon.

MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fulham-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wolves-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool-West Ham United Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Cup 2018 Semi Final Picks (July 10-11)

We are down to the final four teams at the 2018 World Cup and it is going to be another tournament hosted by a European nation which will be won by a European nation.

The hosts went out of the tournament on penalties a few days ago having overachieved significantly but the tournament has been a success for the most part and there could be four fantastic matches left to play.

Excitement levels should be almost at a peak in England, Croatia, France and Belgium with all of those nations believing they can win the World Cup.

Tuesday 10th July
France v Belgium Pick: This looks like being a potentially classic World Cup Semi Final as the two favourites to win the tournament meet on Tuesday.

Both France and Belgium have impressed in this tournament and also showed how much belief they have in their ability to win it all by coming from behind to win Knock Out ties. France were trailing Argentina 1-2 before beating them 4-3 in the Second Round, while Belgium rallied from 0-2 down against Japan in an eventual 3-2 win so I have little doubt both teams will be confident going into this one.

The two European nations beat tough South American opponents in the Quarter Final after France beat Uruguay and Belgium beat Brazil to reach this Semi Final.

I think they will mesh pretty well in this Semi Final with the two teams having outstanding attacking options that will have seen some of the defensive missteps the other have made. France were not tested by a Uruguay team who were missing Edinson Cavani but that won't be the case when Belgium face them, although Didier Deschamps will also feel his France team won't miss the same kind of opportunities Brazil did in the Quarter Final.

My fear for Belgium is that there has been a tendency for teams to be beaten in their next World Cup Knock Out game if they have beaten a team who opened up a shorter price in the outright market. That is the case for Belgium after beating Brazil and I can guess the layers have factored that in by making France the favourites in this match.

I don't think it will be easy for Belgium if Roberto Martinez gets his tactics as right as he did in the Quarter Final and this is a team with plenty of attacking talent who can create the magic to win the game.

The midfield battle will be key with some of the top players providing the supply lines to the attacking players that have impressed so much in the tournament already. Some may feel France and Belgium will then cancel one another out, but the style of play employed by Roberto Martinez should mean an attacking game develops here.

I am narrowly leaning towards France to make it through to the Final, but it is a very slight lean.

Instead I think the best way to approach this Semi Final is backing the two teams to combine for at least three goals with my feeling the attacking players will create the chances against two defences that have been far from watertight at times. Over the years you would expect goals to be at a premium once you get to this stage of a World Cup but I think there has been a shift in the way teams approach these big games which was underlined in the Champions League.

The last four World Cup Semi Finals have seen half of those games feature at least five goals and I think France and Belgium could provide some big entertainment for the fans. At odds against I will back goals to be the outcome here as the attacking players try and carry their respective nations to the World Cup Final on Sunday.

Wednesday 11th July
Croatia v England Pick: Two nations who were perhaps seen as outsiders will play in the Semi Final and I imagine the excitement in Croatia will match those scenes we have seen in England as both teams have progressed through the draw.

I also make no mistake in thinking in that both camps will feel this is a great opportunity for them to make a World Cup Final as they will believe they have the superior players than their opponent.

Croatia seem to have the midfield power to control things against England and they will be encouraged by the lack of clean sheets England have achieved. They may have got one in the last game against Sweden, but the latter had their chances in that game and Croatia have better players in the final third that won't be guilty of missing those opportunities.

On the other hand England will be very confident they can expose some of the defensive vulnerabilities Croatia have been displaying. The Croatians have looked awkward when balls have been put into their box from long throws and set pieces and England have shown time and time again how important those avenues are for them to score the goals they need.

The big surprise for me is that England are favourites to win this match- if this was a Second Round match I think this would have been a match where the prices are reversed, but the layers are clearly factoring in the potential fatigue factor.

And you can't blame them as historically Croatia are in a tremendously tough position to overcome England here.

Teams who have needed extra time in one Round who face a team who have won in 90 minutes in the next Round have been beaten in 19/28 occasions that situation has arisen. And the number gets even worse if a team has had to win on penalties with 4/18 managing to progress a Round further and Croatia are on back to back penalty shoot outs which could be very tough to deal with.

That has to have been factored into the prices for this Semi Final by the layers and it has to be a concern for Croatia fans especially as they have had slightly less time to recover than England who won very comfortably last time out.

It isn't enough for me to lean towards England in this Semi Final if only because they haven't really been tested like they could have been. Croatia is a different challenge and my feeling is we are going to see goals in this Semi Final too with both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities.

Both teams have scored in 3 of 5 England matches in this World Cup and the same has happened in 3 in a row featuring Croatia. With England's set piece power and Croatia's overall ability to create chances I can see both teams getting on the board in this Semi Final and you can back that to be the outcome at odds against.

Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 games between Croatia and England and I think they have shown enough at the World Cup to think that will be the outcome of this one too.

MY PICKS: France-Belgium Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Croatia-England Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Semi Final Update: 1-1, + 0.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)

Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 2.70 Units (8 Units, + 33.75% Yield)
Last 16 Final: 2-6, - 7.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Three Final: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)

World Cup 2018 Quarter Final Picks (July 6-7)

2018 World Cup Quarter Final Picks

Friday 6th July

Uruguay v France Pick: If you were going to point out the best of the World Cup Second Round matches the one between France and Argentina might be the pick from the 2018 edition. Coming from behind to beat Argentina 4-3 will have given the French players a lot of belief to take forward, but they will know the challenge that awaits them from Uruguay who have looked the best team in the tournament so far.

However the 2-1 win over Portugal came at a cost for Uruguay with the suggestion that Edinson Cavani is going to be limited at best in this Quarter Final. It was Cavani's two goals that helped Uruguay reach another World Cup Quarter Final having done the same in South Africa in 2010 and this is a confident team.

And you would be confident with the defensive power Uruguay possess coupled with the two star strikers who have had a big impact in Europe.

The challenge is going to be a difficult one against this French team who are better than what they have shown so far in the tournament. The performance against Argentina was good enough, but Didier Deschamps won't be happy with some of the defending and I expect he is going to take a more cautious approach to this one.

Unlike the game against Argentina, France will know there won't be a lot of space to exploit through their attacking players and so Deschamps will naturally want to make sure the back door is kept shut as tight as possible.

Where I do give France the edge is through the midfield as I expect them to get the better of their younger Uruguayan opponents. That should allow the French to dominate the tempo of this one and they will feel they can cut the supply lines to Cavani and Luis Suarez which is a key to France having the success to get past a tough, grizzled opponent.

Breaking down Uruguay won't be easy, but I think France have enough about them in the final third to find a way to do that. My lean is towards the European team making their way through to the Semi Final of the World Cup for the first time since 2006, but I know it won't be easy.

Games between France and Uruguay have tended to be very tight and they had played out 4 consecutive goalless draws before Uruguay beat France 1-0 in the most recent game between the teams in 2013. Those goalless draws covered meetings in the 2002 World Cup and 2010 World Cup too and my overriding feeling is that this is going to be a tight and tense game that may be decided by a single goal.

This World Cup has been one featuring plenty of goals so backing less than two being scored is not an easy decision, but Uruguay and France won't want to give much away in this one. An early goal will change the whole feeling of this match, but I think both teams will be cautious early and one goal could be all it takes to determine who will be playing in the Semi Final next week.

Brazil v Belgium Pick: There are two massive Quarter Final matches set to be played this Friday at the World Cup, but I do think the second of those featuring Brazil and Belgium will be the best we see in this Round.

Both teams come into this one full of confidence having put a winning run together and the attacking players will believe they can make the difference for each team.

My fear for Belgium is they have not looked all that secure at the back and they have given up some very big opportunities to all of the teams they have faced in this World Cup. Against a strong front four like Brazil, Belgium have to find the right balance between attack and defence and also ask for more from their defenders who have not played up to the level that we would expect.

On the other hand I think Brazil's run of 3 consecutive clean sheets is perhaps papering over the fact the defence have not been as good as they would have liked. You can't deny the chances that Costa Rica and Serbia created against Brazil, while Mexico were in some stunning situations but could not manufacture those into goalscoring chances.

I don't think that will be the case if Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne pick up those same pockets of space and the absence of Casemiro is a blow to Brazil and the protection they afford the ageing centre halves. Romelu Lukaku was not at his best against Japan, but he is an effective focal point for Belgium and some of the attacking football played by Roberto Martinez' men is a joy to watch.

They have speed to hurt Brazil and I think there is every chance we are going to se a cracking game of football. The situation of being in a Quarter Final could lead to some more cautious play from both teams, but I don't think that is really in the nature of Brazil or this current Belgium team and there looks to be too much quality in the final third to see the defences come out on top.

Picking a winner isn't as easy as the odds suggest- I think both teams are facing their biggest challenge in this tournament and I can't have Brazil at just over odds on to win this one in normal time. Belgium, like Croatia, have escaped a desperate moment and I think that will make them stronger although the last two Quarter Final exits is a concern from a mental point of view.

I do think there will be goals in this one though and you can pick over 2.5 goals at odds against at the moment. Both teams should have some serious chances to score in this one and I can't imagine the top players on show lacking the composure to punish two defences that have not been of the highest standard even with Brazil's clean sheets in mind.

A first half goal could really open this tie up and backing at least three goals looks to be the play.


At the start of the tournament I recommended Belgium to be beaten in the Quarter Final at 4.00 which is effectively the price we have on Brazil to Qualify from the tie. That is obviously much shorter here and you can lay the short odds and lock in a profit regardless of how this match ends.


Saturday 7th July
Sweden v England Pick: It would be wise for England fans to not get too carried away with the way the Quarter Final line up has panned out for them. While I would tend to agree that Sweden are arguably the weakest of the eight teams left (mainly because Russia are hosting this tournament), this has been a nation that have regularly given England a very tough test.

The style of play is one that meshes well with the English and Sweden won't be feeling any less confident than England in making another World Cup Semi Final. The Swedes have actually made the World Cup Semi Final in more recent memory than England having done that in 1994 compared with England's 1990 run and they will be feeling exactly the same as England in believing this is a huge opportunity for them to make themselves heroes.

The game should be a decent one as both teams have arguably already overachieved by merely reaching the World Cup Quarter Final. That may make them feel they are playing with 'house money' although you can't ignore the obvious tensions that will come with playing in a World Cup Quarter Final.

England have to be slightly concerned with the lack of goals from open play- almost all of the 9 goals they have scored in this tournament have come from set pieces or penalties and that is a concern considering how well drilled Sweden are likely to be in those situations.

Instead the key is for England to get more out of their team in the forward areas with the pace they have. They have to try and shift Sweden and not allow a defence that has kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games to settle in and make life as difficult as possible for their opponents in trying to break them down.

Sweden will also feel they pose a big threat from set pieces themselves especially with Sebastian Larsson back from suspension. It won't have been lost on Sweden that England have conceded in every game and 3 of the 4 goals conceded have come from a penalty, free kick situation or a corner.

The Scandinavian nation are a big team with a quality crosser in Larsson so it will be imperative for England to be fully concentrated on Saturday. They also will have to respect the fact that Sweden have created some big chances in every game but are perhaps lacking a little bit of quality in the forward areas which has made it difficult for them to really put teams to the sword despite the impressive displays they have produced.

England also have a poor record against Sweden with the latter being able to frustrate them and create chances of their own. Prior to Euro 2012 England had not beaten Sweden in a competitive game in 7 previous tries, while they have won just 2 of the last 15 games played between these nations.

All in all it does make England look a very short price- they are a number of ticks shorter than Mexico and Switzerland and I do think Sweden are being underestimated by the layers if not the actual management staff of England. The layers look to be pricing up England knowing the patriotic punters are back in the queues to get behind the nation, but I can't be backing England at such a short price although I expect they win.

Perhaps tension makes this a tight game, but I think both teams have shown enough in attacking areas to think they can produce some quality opportunities to score goals in this one. The edge has to be given to England with the superior attacking players they can call upon, but I don't think Sweden will go quietly and this could be a decent game of football between two nations who will match up well with one another.

Set pieces are going to be massive for both teams with the ability they have shown from those positions and the quality of ball they are able to provide their attacking players. That could be a real avenue of success for Sweden, but England will also feel they can have success and I am narrowly leaning towards the latter to find a way to win this one.

Having the stress of going through extra time and penalties is another concern for England, but they do have enough time to recover and I am not overly concerned for them. I think there may be a few more goals than the layers think and I am going to back England to win a game featuring at least two goals on Saturday.


Russia v Croatia Pick: It is always a good thing to see the hosts of a World Cup do well as it energises the country the event is being played with and also the tournament seems to be that much more enjoyable.

Of course you can't shy away from the recent history of Russian sports when you see the kind of energy this team is playing with, even if the quality is not quite there.

The running distances are eye catching from the hosts and I will admit I am not completely comfortable seeing it because I simply don't trust it is the adrenaline of representing your country at home in this case. They are going to need that energy again if they are going to make the Semi Final of the World Cup against another team who will look to keep possession through a powerful midfield.

Croatia didn't play at their best in the penalty shoot out win over Denmark, but that performance can only be surpassed in this Quarter Final. They could have blown the Danes away in the first half, but struggled in the second half and the majority of extra time, but there is a clear quality in this Croatia team that suggests they can relax a little bit with a first Knock Out win since the 1998 World Cup Quarter Final behind them.

They also have a different style compared with Spain who were very boring in their play and one paced for much of the Second Round clash with Russia. This time the old defenders Russia have been relying on will be faced with players who have pace and who will look to run at them and that can be a real difference maker in this Quarter Final.

I am anticipating the Croatian team will have the majority of the chances to win this match, but they will have to take them. For all my concerns about Russia's running ability without showing too much fatigue, I also think this is a team who will need the full six days to try and reenergise the batteries.

Russia have also been very efficient in front of goal with any big chance taken and that is a concern for a Croatia defence that has looked a little vulnerable at times. They have to expect to be dealing with a lot more crosses into the box and Croatia have to show better command of those situations.

Like any Quarter Final, the first goal is going to be absolutely key here. If Croatia get it I think they can dictate the tempo and they have a better counter attacking threat than Spain which can expose the older legs Russia have at the back.

A Russian lead will mean they will sit back and look to defend in great numbers as they did with success against Spain, but I do think the hosts will need to ride their luck in this one.

It wouldn't be a big surprise to me to see goals in this Quarter Final, but I am giving the edge to Croatia who I expect to be multiple times better than they were against Denmark last Sunday. The quality is really all with Croatia and I think they silence the hosts on Saturday with a win and a place in the World Cup Semi Final for the first time in twenty years.

MY PICKS: Uruguay-France Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Brazil-Belgium Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

England to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Croatia - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Quarter Final Update: 2-2, + 2.70 Units (8 Units, + 33.75% Yield)

Last 16 Final: 2-6, - 7.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Three Final: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)