NFL Week 2 Picks 2024 (Thursday 12th September-Monday 16th September)

Looking back at the Week 1 write up from 2023 and there were plenty of positives to take about the teams identified as potential Super Bowl Champions.

Of course the Kansas City Chiefs-San Francisco 49ers match up would have been one that many had tipped up anyway and it really would not be a surprise to see both there or thereabouts again.

A couple of dud teams that were highlighted ended up being the New York Jets, which is not a surprise considering what happened to Aaron Rodgers after just four Offensive snaps, while the other were the very disappointing Denver Broncos.

However, the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns both were able to make the post-season and so it was largely a positive.

Of course it was written in the Week 1 Picks thread for the 2024 season that the 'preview' of the season would have to wait until Week 2 because of timing issues.

The first thing to point out is that there will be a couple of teams here that have begun the season very disappointingly, although the longer-term prospects remain high and an overreaction to Week 1 results is not necessary.

No one should be surprised that the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers impressed as much as they did and these two Super Bowl teams from the 2023 season will be setting the bar for others as long as they can stay healthy.

You have to feel good about where the Detroit Lions stand right now and their window to finally reach a Super Bowl is very much open- they should have beaten the 49ers in the PlayOffs last season and Dan Campbell will be convinced his team can go a little better.

The belief is that teams like the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams can build on their runs last season, although the former have lost Jordan Love for at least a month. That is a bitter blow, but the Packers are playing in a Division where they should dominate along with the Lions, while the Rams have a nice looking balance to their roster even after Aaron Donald moved into retirement.

The team that may be looking to show the most improvement in the NFC has to be the Philadelphia Eagles after a tremendous collapse at the end of last season. There is a feeling that Nick Siriano is lucky to keep his job as Head Coach, but both him and Jalen Hurts will be on the hot seat as Eagles fans think Super Bowl or bust.

The NFC does look a little deeper this time around, and a few more challengers can come up to face the San Francisco 49ers, but it feels like a Conference where the post-season teams from last season will be expecting improvement to go again.

It may be a bit different in the AFC and the likes of the Cincinnati Bengals will feel a healthier year for Joe Burrow could be important as they look for one more shot to win a Super Bowl before key players need big money contracts.

Losing to the New England Patriots in Week 1 is a disappointment, but the Baltimore Ravens are set to take a step back in the AFC North and the Bengals may yet be ready to pounce on that.

Another long-time contender Buffalo Bills have something to prove too with a number of changes made to a roster that were narrowly beaten by Kansas City Chiefs yet again. Both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will be looking to give the Bills a run for their money and end their dominance of the AFC East and one of the two representatives in the PlayOffs from this Division in 2023 may miss out in 2024.

Two top teams slipping backwards may give younger Quarter Backs leading the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans an opportunity for a deep post-season run, while Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers and has a history of turning around a teams fortunes very quickly.

This year may be too soon for Harbaugh to have the impact he wants, but the AFC looks pretty wide open behind the Kansas City Chiefs, who have to be considered the favourites to return to the Super Bowl and really nail down their place as a dynasty.

2023 proved to be a very good year for the NFL Picks with a 56% hit rate- an 80-58-4 record produced just shy of 17 units of profit and an 11.23% Yield.

Anything like that in 2024 would be seen as a positive and the Week 1 start was a good one, although it is only a start.

The key in Week 2 is to not make too many overreactions to a single week of action- teams are not nearly as good as some may have looked and not nearly as bad as others felt, but it is still important to try and find the right angles to back up the Week 1 results.

Last year I noted that the first four weeks were tough with two winning weeks and two that ended on the losing side, so stakes are likely to be kept to a minimum this week too.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Thursday Night Football looks a really good one in Week 2 as two of the leading contenders in the AFC East meet very early on in the new season.

Both the Miami Dolphins (1-0) and Buffalo Bills (1-0) had to show some character and resiliency in fighting back to win opening games after making slow starts and that should mean there is some momentum to take into the short week.

Obviously one of the bigger issues with playing on a short week is that players do not have the time to recover as they usually would and Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out for the Miami Dolphins. His Running Back partner De'Von Achane has been left as a game time decision, while the Buffalo Bills will start Josh Allen at Quarter Back despite having his left hand banged up against the Arizona Cardinals.

Excuses cannot be used as far as the fans go and the Miami Dolphins are under some pressure to show they can get the better of this AFC East rival.

Since Drafting Josh Allen, the Bills have dominated the Dolphins and they have actually won eleven of the last twelve between the teams, including a Week 18 victory last season which saw Buffalo win another AFC East Divisional title and push Miami into the Wild Card Round of the post-season.

The 2022 season had ended with a PlayOff defeat to Buffalo and being swept by the Bills cost Miami a Divisional title in 2023 so there is plenty of redemption and revenge fuelling the home team. Conditions are perhaps not so strong in favour of Miami as it would have been if this game had been set to play during the day rather than 8:15pm local time, and you have to agree with Tua Tagovailoa who stated that people won't really begin to believe in the Miami Dolphins until they start beating Buffalo consistently.

Offensive Line issues may make it difficult for the Dolphins to run the ball and that would have been the case if both Running Backs were fully healthy too. That means the pressure is on Tua Tagovailoa to show that he is ready to beat the Bills and there are some passing lanes that can be exploited if the Quarter Back is given time.

It was something of a struggle to earn that time against the Jacksonville Jaguars and this Bills team do get pressure up front, which is going to be key to stopping the Miami speedsters from getting away from their Defenders. If the Dolphins are playing from third and long, Buffalo can rush Tagovailoa and that may lead to one or two mistakes.

At least Tyreek Hill and a couple of the other Miami players will hopefully have an easier journey to the Stadium than they did on Sunday- the police officer footage of pulling over Hill has been embarrassing and continues to be a big story heading into Week 2 as the Dolphins demand proper action is taken.

This is something that the Buffalo Bills will not concern themselves with and the only focus for this team is to build on the win in Week 1.

Changes have had to be made and Stefon Diggs is no longer with the Bills, but Josh Allen is and there are still enough pieces to believe this is a team capable of breaking through and reaching a Super Bowl. The banged up hand is a concern, but at least it is not his throwing hand, while the comfort Allen has in facing the Miami Dolphins is hard to dismiss.

Last week the Miami Defensive Line had one or two issues shutting down the run and that was without Trevor Lawrence attempting to move the ball with his legs. Things might be that much more difficult with a dual-threat like Josh Allen in front of them and that should also mean an opportunity for James Cook to play a key part in the game.

Losing Diggs and Gabe Davis does mean the Bills may not be as keen to test this Miami Secondary through the air, but moving the ball on the ground will open up some of the play-action opportunities. The feeling is that Buffalo may have enough success on the ground to give Josh Allen a chance to continue his dominance of this AFC East rival and the Bills do look an appealing underdog.

Miami will scheme things up to try and exploit some of the vulnerable spots in this Buffalo Defensive unit, but it will be tough if they cannot run the ball. Being behind the chains is tough for any Offensive team and there is also plenty for Miami to prove this season having come up short against the stronger teams they faced time after time last season.

If this spread moves up to a full Field Goal margin it would be worth additional units, but a small interest on the Buffalo Bills with the start is still the play in this big Week 2 opener.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: After getting the better of one opponent looking for revenge after a PlayOff defeat in their home Stadium, the Detroit Lions (1-0) will be hoping to hold onto dominance over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) in Week 2. The Lions won both games played against Tampa Bay in the 2023 season and they are clearly one of the favourites to reach the Super Bowl thanks to the quality of player they have on both sides of the ball.

The Jordan Love injury for the Green Bay Packers may have opened a door for Detroit to take an early grip of this Division, although much will depend on how much time the Quarter Back misses. Even if he was healthy, there are plenty of people very bullish on the chances of the Lions to go at least one better than last season when they were narrowly beaten in the NFC Championship Game.

It took Overtime to finally get the better of former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, but the victory maintains the strong performance level with Jared Goff at the helm in the indoor conditions of Ford Field.

Detroit ran the ball pretty well against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the PlayOff game having struggled to move the ball on the ground when the teams met in the regular season. With the tandem at Running Back, the Lions can certainly pick up from where they left off in the win over the Los Angeles Rams and both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will be given opportunities both from hand-offs and also as pass catchers coming out of the backfield.

It feels like it will be challenging for the Buccaneers to contain the Lions on the ground, especially if the Offensive Line is at full health and so it is wise to keep an eye on the status of Penei Sewell who has missed practice this week. He should suit up to keep the Lions Offensive Line as the dominant team in the trenches and putting Jared Goff in third and manageable will make it very tough to stop this unit.

Jared Goff has the Receivers to really give Tampa Bay problems and the Buccaneers are not facing a rookie this week. Antoine Winfield Jr could be missing in the Secondary and it will be tough to contain Detroit, even from what they have learned about one of the top NFC contenders in the two meetings last season.

Head Coach Todd Bowles prides himself on his Defensive knowhow, but stopping Detroit is going to be tough in their own Stadium.

However, there has to be some confidence that Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit can at least challenge the Lions on the scoreboard and potentially keep the game very competitive. In the PlayOff game, the Buccaneers had more yards than Detroit, but two Mayfield Interceptions proved costly in an 8 point loss and the Quarter Back will know he has to be smarter with the ball.

Taking over from Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield played well enough in 2023 to earn a big extension and he still has some top Receivers around him to make the plays that make him look good. Much is going to depend on Mayfield and his arm with the Buccaneers unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against this Detroit Defensive Line and the game could be won or lost depending on how effectively the Buccaneers Offensive Line can give their Quarter Back time.

With time, Baker Mayfield should be able to make some big plays into the Detroit Secondary, especially one that is likely to be learning on the job early in the season. Passing has been tough for NFL Quarter Backs in Week 1 of the 2024 season, but Baker Mayfield was one of the better performers in the position and he can find Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for some big plays to keep this one competitive.

Opposing Detroit inside Ford Field has proven to be very costly over the last couple of years under Dan Campbell and they cam through with a win and cover on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. However, this feels like a game in which Tampa Bay may have the qualities in the passing game to keep up on the scoreboard and potentially even score late on to secure a backdoor cover.

Motivation is with the Buccaneers and the Lions did put in a considerable effort in coming through in Overtime in their Week 1 win. The expectation is that Detroit will win, but the Buccaneers are receiving plenty of points and can do just enough to stay within the number set for this big game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The sharps have been backing the Carolina Panthers (0-1) despite the horrific Week 1 performance that saw them lose by 37 points at the home of Divisional rivals New Orleans Saints. They are trying to get Bryce Young all of the support he needs at Quarter Back and that is by signing a Receiver like Diontae Johnson and hiring David Canales as Head Coach.

It all went wrong in Week 1, but the sharps may feel an overreaction to one loss has provided them a number with which they can feel comfortable backing the Panthers as a home underdog.

While there has to be a slight feeling about this being something of a 'trap' line, the Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) may still be the right team to back, even if they have already been heavily supported by the public.

Beating the Las Vegas Raiders in Jim Harbaugh's first game as Head Coach will have given the Chargers a boost, although it was a tight, competitive game that was in the balance until deep into the Fourth Quarter when a decision made by Raiders Head Coach Antonio Pierce backfired. Instead of going for a 4th & 1, Pierce punted the ball away and the Chargers embarked on a drive that ultimately secured the victory.

This is a team that is going to feel like a work in progress, despite some obvious talent.

Justin Herbert did have over 3000 passing yards to go with his 20 Touchdown passes in 2023, but he is perhaps not fully healthy having missed the end of the season. Even with that in mind, the Harbaugh approach is going to be on making sure his team can grind things out on the ground and then rely on strong Defensive play to push the team forward and the Chargers showed what they are about in the win over the Raiders.

With JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards sharing the workload, the Chargers Offensive Line may be ready to find a way to burst open some big running lanes in this one. They will certainly be helped by the fact that Carolina's Defensive Line have lost Derrick Brown and it was tough for the Panthers to stop New Orleans moving the ball on the ground last week.

This could seep into this contest and that should keep Justin Herbert in a position to make plays when needed, even if he has lost a couple of key Receivers. Last week the focus was to make sure Herbert took care of the ball in a tight battle, but being in front of the chains should give the Quarter Back an opportunity and the Chargers should be able to have Offensive success in the first of two games to be played in the early Eastern Time Zone.

It is perhaps the biggest challenge for the Chargers in Week 2 with the long trip and the early kick off far from ideal for any team coming out of the West Coast. And ultimately a bit of tiredness and fatigue may be the best chance for the Carolina Panthers to play this one close and potentially earn the upset.

Bryce Young is going to have to be a lot better than Week 1 and prove that his rookie season is not going to cloud over his whole NFL career. The pressure is on having been selected as the Number 1 Pick in the 2023 Draft, which was before CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson and the performances of those two players has certainly been showing a lot more potential than Young.

The Panthers have given up a lot of Draft Capital to bring in Young so they will want to give him time to develop, but the fans may lack the same patience. Big money was invested into the Panthers Offensive Line to give Bryce Young a bit more time than he had last season, while the Panthers would have hoped they could offer support with a more consistent rushing attack.

None of that was in evidence in the blowout in Week 1 and the Chargers Defensive Line are coming in behind a strong performance when containing the Las Vegas rush. If they can keep Bryce Young behind the chains, the Chargers have the kind of pass rush that should give Carolina fits and ultimately it may lead to one or two mistakes from the sophomore Quarter Back who is struggling with his confidence.

Carolina do have a positive recent history against the Chargers, but the last meeting was back in 2020 and the Panthers have slipped signiicantly.

Going against the sharps is never fun, but Jim Harbaugh's team can grind down Carolina on the ground and avoiding mistakes will give Los Angeles an advantage in this game. The spread has dropped below a key number over the last couple of days and the Chargers may have enough to secure a solid road win to keep the positive vibes going behind their new Head Coach.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both of these teams are playing behind road defeats from Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, but the Baltimore Ravens (0-1) were a team that finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC last season and so have big expectations. They have also had an additional few days to prepare for their home opener in Week 2 having begun the season at the home of the Super Bowl Champions on Thursday, and that makes this long trip for the Las Vegas Raiders (0-1) feel challenging.

Antonio Pierce was given the permanent Head Coaching role with Las Vegas after guiding them to a strong end to the season. The players are clearly happy playing for Pierce and so a decision was made to not look outside of the building to replace Josh McDaniels, but the Head Coach had to face some criticism for punting the ball away from a 4th & 1 spot in the Fourth Quarter of the eventual defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers.

He was adamant that he had made the right decision, but Pierce may internally be looking to show improvement on his clock management and analytical calls.

The decision was seen as a cautious one in Week 1 and Antonio Pierce cannot afford to be careful when trying to win at the home of the Baltimore Ravens.

His team struggled to run the ball in the defeat to the Chargers and there is not going to be a lot of holes to exploit against this Ravens Defensive Line, but Las Vegas should be able to move the ball a little more efficiently than they did in the defeat in Week 1. Gardner Minshew will be hoping to be given a little more protection from the Raiders Offensive Line, but this is a Quarter Back who has been given a couple of very good Receiving options and will be throwing into a Secondary that allowed Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to make some big plays through the air.

Of course Gardner Minshew is not Mahomes and the Raiders are not the Chiefs, but the likes of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are big playmakers and that should see Las Vegas have success. Turnovers have perhaps been the biggest hindrance to Minshew becoming a more consistent starter at Quarter Back and that is perhaps the biggest threat to the Raiders having some successes in this one.

Becoming one-dimensional would mean mistakes are more likely to be made, while the Baltimore pass rush is going to rush the Raiders Quarter Back too.

Extra time is important for the Baltimore Ravens as they bid to bounce back from the very close defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs when a toenail prevented them having the chance to go for two and the victory.

Frustrations aside, the Ravens will know it is a long season and one in which they will still feel they are a leading AFC contender.

Lamar Jackson is the key for Baltimore, but this is a team that is making a considerable effort to find balance in their Offensive play in order to keep opponents off-balance. Last week the Ravens were able to establish the run, but they are not going to give Derrick Henry a heavy workload and instead will also continue to use Jackson's dual-threat as a way to move the ball on the ground.

After seeing a couple of former Ravens rip through the Raiders Defensive Line after wearing them down, Baltimore's current group may be able keep the team in front of the chains, which is going to be key for their chances of putting a first win on the board. This will also be important to try and slow down the Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby, and should open up the play-action for Lamar Jackson to connect with his underrated Receiving options.

The Raiders Secondary is not a bad one and they will feel they can make some big plays, as they did against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. If Baltimore are in front of the chains, Lamar Jackson should have the time to find one of his Receivers down the field and the Ravens may just have a bit too much for the Raiders to keep up.

This is a big spread, but this is a long journey for the Raiders and the early start is not ideal. Las Vegas did win the last time they played Baltimore, but that was at home and they were blown out when last visiting here in 2018.

Last season Las Vegas were very competitive after Antonio Pierce took over as Head Coach, but the schedule was dominated by home games.

It is a spread that is wide enough to offer Las Vegas a backdoor cover opportunity, but the feeling is that Gardner Minshew may push to get his team back into the contest and that could lead to a backbreaking turnover that allows the hosts to cover.

Ultimately it may lead to a double digit win for the Ravens and they can be backed to cover the spread set.

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The most eye-catching scoreline from Week 1 was produced by the New Orleans Saints (1-0) who completely crushed Divisional rivals Carolina Panthers at home. They will now head out on the road to show that this is not simply beating up on one of the poorest teams in the NFL and any team that can win a pro game by 37 points has to be respected.

The Saints will be travelling to take on the Dallas Cowboys (1-0) in Week 2, a team that won convincingly on the road, despite being the underdog when the game kicked off at the Cleveland Browns.

The win was just hours after it was announced that Dak Prescott has signed a new contract with the Dallas Cowboys to be the face of the franchise for a few more years, although that will not have erased some of the criticisms that people have of the Quarter Back. The Cowboys and Prescott know that his new deal will be judged on whether he can take Dallas through to the Super Bowl at the very least, but it has been a long time since the Cowboys were the dominant force in the NFC.

Dak Prescott is under pressure, but Head Coach Mike McCarthy is under a lot more and anything less than a Super Bowl may see a change with some big name Coaches being linked with any vacancy that may need to be filled. The win at the Cleveland Browns will be encouraging, but the entire season will be judged on results in January and winning a third Divisional title in four years would certainly help.

33 points were scored in the win over the Browns, but the Offensive unit did not have any mind-blowing numbers. The Cowboys were facing a very good Defensive team, but Prescott will be looking to show off a lot more than 163 passing yards, while they only put up 102 yards on the ground, and it may benefit facing a New Orleans team that were perhaps made to look a lot better than they actually are.

We do know that the Cowboys Offensive Line is not as strong as it once was, and the Running Back corps is led by Ezekiel Elliot who has had his best days. They may not be able to run the ball as they once did, but Dallas should have some success on the ground against this New Orleans Defensive Line which is perhaps a little too experienced and thus worn.

The pass rush was working very well for the Saints in their win over Carolina, but it is a hard game to judge this team considering how badly Carolina performed. Naturally you have to expect a lot more from the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott does have a couple of top Receivers that can make plays for him when he airs it out.

Throwing against this New Orleans Secondary will be a test for the Quarter Back with a new contract in the pocket, but Prescott should be able to put Dallas in a position to win.

Questions will be asked about Prescott, but the same can be said for Derek Carr as the New Orleans Quarter Back, while Dennis Allen has to be a on a short leash as Head Coach. Last season the Saints felt like a team that could beat those they expected to, but who would struggle when facing the better teams on the schedule and this Week 2 game is a big test to see if much has changed.

They ran the ball very well last week and the Saints may feel their Offensive Line can have some success opening running lanes again as long as this game is close. The Browns were able to rip off some solid runs against the Cowboys in Week 1, even behind a banged up Offensive Line, but Alvin Kamara has a lot of miles on the clock and whether he can pick up from where he left off against Carolina is another question.

And the biggest test for this New Orleans Offensive Line may be when they are sat behind the chains- in that case they are going to be dealing with a strong Dallas pass rush, which will rush Derek Carr into throwing against the Cowboys Secondary that will be looking to pick off passes. Interceptions turned the game against the Cleveland Browns and the Cowboys could force a mistake or two from Derek Carr, which may lead to a solid home win for Dallas.

Head Coach Dennis Allen will be under some pressure to show things have changed under his watch- his Saints team are 4-10-1 against the spread when playing after a win, while those teams that had a blowout win of over 28 points in Week 1 have followed up with a 16-24-3 record against the spread in Week 2.

With a new contract in his hand, Dak Prescott will want to show something to the home fans and he does have a record of 21-9 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 6 points. It does feel like the Cowboys have a more sustainable path to backing up their Week 1 win over Cleveland than the New Orleans Saints and being at home should see Dallas come away with a solid win to remain unbeaten.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Pick: This Week 2 game would have been circled by Russell Wilson and there would have been a lot of interest in Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) playing the Denver Broncos (0-1). Some of the excitement will have been reduced by the fact that Wilson is unlikely to suit up and instead it will be Justin Fields leading the Steelers into battle, but it is the Denver home opener and that is big for Head Coach Sean Payton and his rookie Quarter Back Bo Nix.

They were 'only' beaten by six points in the loss at the Seattle Seahawks, but Payton was not that happy with what he had seen, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

At least this week the fans will be supporting Bo Nix when he has the ball in his hands, which may help, but it would have been much preferred to be facing a weaker Defense than the one the Steelers will have on the field.

Last week the Broncos were able to have some success on the ground and they will be given a boost if Garrett Bolles is able to take his place on the Offensive Line. The problem for Denver is going to be if Bo Nix continues to struggle to throw the ball as teams will choose to load the box and dare Nix to beat them with his arm.

The Steelers might have enough faith in their Defensive Line to control the trenches and prevent the Broncos from dominating on the ground without extra bodies being needed to contain the run. This is very important for Pittsburgh and they will certainly feel they can disrupt the Denver Offensive game-plan whenever they are behind the chains.

Holding the much talked about Atlanta Offense to less than 150 passing yards will have given the Steelers a huge boost and they may have enough up front to cover up any issues in the Secondary. Better teams may be able to expose those, but this Denver passing game is going to feel like a work in progress and rookie Bo Nix is going up against a well Coached Defensive unit.

Someone will need to step up to make plays for Bo Nix and this will be very different conditions playing at home compared with having to make a debut in the very loud Seattle Seahawks home opener.

Even so, it will be a struggle for the Broncos to find the consistency they want and so there is going to be some real pressure on their own Defense to step up and keep this one close on the scoreboard.

They will be helped by what is looking like a grind it out Pittsburgh Offense that struggled for consistency in the win over the Falcons in Week 1. It is a big win, and Justin Fields did enough to impress, but injuries on the Offensive Line made it a struggle to run the ball efficiently. With a one-two punch in the backfield, Pittsburgh may feel they can have more joy against this Denver Defensive Line that allowed Seattle to pick up 4.4 yards per carry in Week 1.

Last season the Broncos could not contain the run and Pittsburgh may be able to enjoy a better performance on the ground in this game, while also perhaps having a better plan to utilise the Justin Fields legs.

Much like the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will find it a struggle whenever they are behind the chains and Justin Fields will not want to be throwing with the pocket collapsing and pressure all around him. The Steelers are keen to take their shots downfield, but Fields will do well to remember where Patrick Surtain II is at all times.

Avoiding turnovers could be key to the outcome of the game, while playing consecutive weeks on the road is always going to be challenging. Pittsburgh may be able to overcome the issues with Head Coach Mike Tomlin likely to give a rookie Quarter Back one or two looks that confuse him and the Steelers are capable of using their experience to just edge this one on the road.

The Steelers have lost four straight road games played in Denver, but it does feel like the Broncos need to show a much bigger improvement from Week 1 compared with the AFC North team. It is expected to be a close game until the end, but the bigger plays can be made by the Pittsburgh Steelers and they can cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2020 (September 15-28)

 

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Pick

We still don't know the exact line up of the Conference Finals with the Los Angeles Lakers waiting for a Game 7 between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets to be completed.

Before that final game of the Conference Semi Finals is played, the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat will begin the Eastern Conference Finals.

Both teams will feel good about their chances to reach the NBA Finals for the first time with their current rosters in place, although I would suggest the winning team is going to be a significant underdog against the Western Conference representative.

Of course I say that now when I believe the two Los Angeles teams will be competing for the place in the NBA Finals, but the Denver Nuggets will have plenty to say about that having shown considerable desire to recover from positions that teams simply have not done regularly in the history of the NBA PlayOffs.

Tuesday 15th September

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The top two Seeds in the Eastern Conference were both dismissed in the Semi Finals of the PlayOffs, although the Boston Celtics needed the full seven games to edge out the Number 2 Seeded Toronto Raptors. Things were much simpler for the Miami Heat who beat the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games and have had plenty of time to rest within the NBA bubble while awaiting the Celtics to make the Conference Finals.

So far the Miami Heat have looked very strong having dropped a single game in the PlayOffs and with Jimmy Butler leading the way to his first ever Conference Finals experience. The team are greater than the sum of their parts, but there are some quality players on the roster even if the Heat are not the same as when they had the Big Three during the LeBron James era on South Beach.

The fact that the Heat are playing without much pressure has to be a benefit for them as many thought they were one of the also-rans in the Eastern Conference. That is not the same for the Boston Celtics who swept the Philadelphia 76ers before being embroiled in a life and death Series with the Toronto Raptors.

Many would have tipped up the Celtics as a dark horse in the Conference having reached the Eastern Conference Finals two seasons ago. Kyrie Irving's departure was seen largely as a positive at Boston and the young players have really come into their own and become All-Stars in their own right.

That has to give Boston a narrow edge in the Series with the Defensive performances ramping up for both teams, but the lack of time to prepare for this game is a tough position to be in. Maybe they are in better rhythm, but we have to expect something of an emotional letdown for the Boston Celtics who invested as much as they did into the last Series.

The Heat also knocked off Boston inside the NBA bubble without Jimmy Butler which will give them confidence, although finding more shooting is going to be the big question for them throughout the Conference Finals. Where Butler and Goran Drajic are likely going to get their points, Miami need Bam Adebayo to have a dominant Series if they are going to earn the upset.

Gordon Hayward remains on the sidelines for the Boston Celtics, but he is nearing a return to the team having returned to the NBA bubble. Even without him the Celtics are plenty talented and they look to have ramped up their ability on the Defensive side of the court to really take control of games.

Both teams are actually very effective Defensively and this Series could be a low-scoring one barring the referees making overuse of their whistles. The Heat do love getting to the foul line, but Boston have shown they can restrict the Offensive output of better teams than the Miami Heat and I think the best approach to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is looking for the under to hit.

The 'under' has been the trending selection in recent Boston games and those when these two teams face one another. Miami could easily be a touch colder shooting the ball having had a week off, while the Celtics fatigue could show up on the Offensive side of the court against an intense Defensive unit like the Heat.

MY PICKS: 15/09 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Under 210 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 15th)

Life can sometimes be busier than expected and that was the case for me on Monday which means I am not able to write out my research for the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the Rome Masters.

After a solid opening day from the Rome Masters, I am hoping these selections can push things further forward in a positive direction.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2020 (September 1-16)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Series

The NBA bubble was always going to be a testing time for the players who are going to help their teams go deep into the PlayOffs with a long time being locked down.

Some have already admitted that they have been feeling it emotionally, while another senseless killing of an African-American by police officers who are supposed to protect us only meant the players felt they needed to make a stand against social injustices at the back end of the First Round PlayOff Series. That has heightened the emotional pressure the players are dealing with and I do feel sorry for them as they look to use their platform to make changes while also trying to focus on their jobs.

I fully stood by the players deciding to boycott some of the PlayOff games last week, but I also agree with those that have decided to play because they feel they can make a bigger social impact by keeping their presence visible for all to see. Jalen Brown, who I have a lot of respect for, is right when he made the point that it was only worth cancelling the PlayOffs if players were going to be on the frontline protesting against social injustices than simply wanting to return to their families outside of the NBA bubble.

A couple of the Conference Semi Final Series have begun, those two from the Eastern Conference, while at the time of writing the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers are still waiting to see who they are going to meet. Those two teams will be big favourites to meet in the Western Conference Finals regardless of the opponents they have to deal with in the Semi Finals, while the four teams remaining in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals will all believe they are good enough to be playing for a Championship next month.

I will update this thread with the NBA Conference Semi Final Picks.

Tuesday 1st September

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: Things could not have gone much better for the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals as they opened up a 16 point lead at the end of the First Quarter. From there on the Celtics comfortably held off the Toronto Raptors and blew them out for a second time in the NBA bubble, although the layers refuse to accept that they may be the better team in this Series.

That means the Celtics are going into Game 2 as a small underdog like they were in Game 1, although the spread has shrunk by half a point. There is no doubt that Boston will feel pretty good about their chances having dominated the Toronto Raptors in the regular season including those two wins inside the bubble, and the Celtics have also shown off considerable depth in the rotation even without Gordon Hayward.

It is going to be some time before Hayward is able to contribute in the manner Boston will like, but he could soon re-enter the bubble to make sure he clears the quarantine period and is available to return. Even then Boston have shown off how many players they can rely upon with six scoring at least double digit points in Game 1 and the All-Stars were able to then take over.

Boston got what they wanted in Game 1 with 17 three pointers hit at 44% and they also displayed the suffocating Defense which saw off the Philadelphia 76ers in the First Round.

Those Defensive schemes meant the Toronto Raptors were held to 37% from the field and a poor 25% from three point range even with Kyle Lowry avoiding missing any time on the court. Head Coach Nick Nurse admitted his team were beaten in all aspects of Game 1, but the Toronto Raptors are still the defending Champions and they will feel they can show much better in this Series.

Some of the emotions that had been put into the previous few days when the Toronto Raptors were another one of the leading voices that felt the NBA PlayOffs had to be postponed for a couple of days may have added up to the performance in Game 1. With two days to reset again, Toronto should be much better although the level needed to sweep the Brooklyn Nets in the First Round will not be good enough to beat the Celtics.

Toronto will need to be better all around in Game 2 and they can't allow Boston to dominate the boards as they did in the first game of the Series. There are some adjustments that can be made, but I still believe the Boston Celtics are the better team and I am surprised they are still an underdog having beaten down Toronto in the two games in the NBA bubble between these teams.

I can't imagine the Raptors shooting as poorly in Game 2 as they did in Game 1, but even then the Celtics will be playing with confidence.

They are still one of the top teams to back as a narrow underdog and Boston have been very good when facing the best teams in the NBA. The Celtics improved to 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight games as the underdog and they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against the Raptors.

This should be closer, but being able to back the better team as the underdog is a spot I will go with.


Wednesday 2nd September
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: It was a tight Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series and the Miami Heat did what many feel they could and that is challenge the Milwaukee Bucks. Personally I thought they might have been caught cold in Game 1, but the Miami Heat were the ones making the big plays down the stretch as they held off the Milwaukee Bucks push having recovered from an 11 point deficit at the end of the First Quarter.

Some lesser teams might have taken the shot on the chin and perhaps struggled to get up, but the Miami Heat continue to show they do match up well against the Bucks. With Jimmy Butler they may have the stand out player on the court who has both the experience and the clutch talent to help his team when things get tight, but he was also well supported by the likes of Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo.

Both teams did manage to get to the Free Throw line with some regularity, but the Heat made those throws count while the Bucks simply did not. Giannis Antetokounmpo was guilty of that going 4-12 from the Free Throw line, and his sub-par performance wasted those from Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez who both managed to put more points on the board than the Milwaukee star player.

Milwaukee won't be overly worried about one performance having recovered from 0-1 down to beat the Orlando Magic in five games in the First Round of the Series. However, they will be a little concerned in falling into a big hole against the Miami Heat who have been a thorn in their side in the regular season and who squared things up at 1-1 inside the NBA bubble.

The players have admitted that they played well in Game 1, but only graded themselves a 'B' and that is proof that the Bucks need to be at their best to win this Series. Milwaukee actually had a better percentage than the Heat from the field, but it was the Free Throws and being completely outplayed on the boards which prevented them winning the opening game.

Eric Bledsoe was a big loss for the Bucks too and he remains questionable for this game. While he would be a boost, Milwaukee will believe they still can recover in this Series in what is a pivotal game even at this stage.

19 Turnovers have to be cleared up by the Bucks too, but I do think this is a team that can bounce back from their opening defeat. Number 1 Seeds in the Conference Semi Finals have been usually strong favourites to back, while the Bucks are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen games following a double digit loss.

In usual circumstances you would really like the Bucks with Game 2 one they would have been hosting, but playing inside the NBA bubble has just changed things. That lessens some of the enthusiasm for this selection, but I do think Milwaukee have shown how good they are all season and I expect them to be a much tougher out on the boards and that could lead to a win this time.


Thursday 3rd September
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: No one associated with the Toronto Raptors are going to be panicking about being in a 0-2 hole in the NBA PlayOffs having recovered from this exact position in knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. There is one key difference though and that is the Raptors don't have a stand out player like Kawhi Leonard to call upon this time around.

Two defeats to the Boston Celtics have come in different ways for the Toronto Raptors who have not been able to match the Defensive intensity nor the depth of the lower Seeded team. In both games in the Conference Semi Finals the Raptors have yet to crack 100 points and adding this to the other game between these teams in the NBA bubble means there is a definite trend developing.

The Raptors did score 100 points in that regular season game inside the bubble, but they were beaten which means Toronto are 0-3 against the Celtics over the last six weeks but 11-0 against everyone else. They can't really hope the Celtics suddenly go off the boil either with Boston having won six PlayOff games in succession and impressing on the Defensive side of the court to the point that they have yet to give up more than 106 points in a single game.

Boston will be looking to keep that intensity going on the Defensive side of the court and knowing they have players who are stepping up Offensively at different times does ease the burden on the roster. In Game 1 six players scored at least 10 points for the Celtics and in Game 2 it was five players who managed to score at least 11 points.

With Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown impressing early, it was Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart that took over late and that caring and sharing attitude is keeping the Celtics moving forward. The Celtics were not as strong from the field in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but for the second game in a row they prevented Toronto from hitting better than 40% from the field and restricted them to 28% or worse from three point range.

You do have to believe that Toronto will eventually get things turned around, especially as they have been hitting at 37% from three point range from the season. Without Kawhi Leonard there has been more pressure on the remaining roster, but no Toronto player has scored more than 20 points in either of the first two games and that is a massive worry for them.

Even now the layers are not convinced that Boston are the better team with them remaining a narrow underdog for this third game of a potential seven. I do think we will see a reaction from Toronto, but they look to be a tiring team with a small rotation of players being used and there simply is no time to really rest and recover inside the NBA PlayOff schedule.

My lean is that Boston will win again, but instead of that I am going to back this Game 3 to land under what looks a high total. Overtime is a worry if this is another close game, but I do think the two teams have shown enough Defensively to believe they will hit the under for fourth time in succession inside the bubble.

Both could get hot from the three point range and scupper this selection, but I think there are some tired bodies out there especially on the Toronto side of the court. That makes it tough to deal with all the looks Boston can send at you and I will look for the under here.

The 'under' has been trending in recent games between these teams and those involving Boston and Toronto and I think that is the sensible play rather than backing the Celtics again in front of a desperate defending Champion.


Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 1 Pick: There has been a few days for the Los Angeles Clippers to just reset and recover after a tougher than expected First Round Series against the Dallas Mavericks. At 2-2 in the First Round the Clippers looked to be rocking, but Paul George rediscovered his best form at just the right time and the Clippers were able to blow past the Mavericks in the last two games to secure a victory in six games.

That has given the team a few days to rest and wait out the Denver Nuggets who became the twelfth team in NBA history to recover from 3-1 down to win a PlayOff Series. The Nuggets found just enough Defensive quality at the right time to edge out the Utah Jazz in the First Round, but Jamal Murray was the first to make a statement on the short turnaround into the Conference Semi Final.

Instead of having a few days to recover, the Nuggets are going back out onto a neutral court just two days after booking their spot in the Semi Final Series. Jamal Murray's statement has got the fans a little wary about Game 1 even with the return of Gary Harris as the amount of effort needed to get through the First Round will have an impact on the Denver Nuggets.

There is also no doubt that the quality of opponent is raised significantly with the Los Angeles Clippers next up. Patrick Beverley looks like he will return to give the Clippers another outstanding Defender to put on the court, while they have depth, All-Stars and others capable of getting hot from the field Offensively.

Slowing down the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard is going to be a real challenge for the Nuggets in usual circumstances, but trying to do that in Game 1 while being physically given a battle by the Clippers looks very hard to deal with. When they met last month in the bubble, Denver admitted they had been bullied by the Clippers who secured a 13 point win and had their way Offensively.

I do like the Nuggets and you can't discount a team who showed as much heart as they did in the First Round when things looked to be conspiring against them. However the Los Angeles Clippers are a different kettle of fish compared with the Utah Jazz and the strength at both ends of the court will give them a real edge over the Nuggets in this one.

After all the effort over the last few days to simply make the Semi Final Series, I do think the Nuggets might just tire in this one. The Clippers won the last two regular season games between these teams by double digits each time and they can cover the mark in this one too.

Denver have been a good underdog to back, but the Los Angeles Clippers counter that with some strong performances as the favourite. The Clippers are also 22-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty-one games when having three or more days rest between games and I think the likes of Leonard and George will be able to take over this Game 1 in the second half and produce a big win for the favourites.


Friday 4th September
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: The Miami Heat have never lost a PlayOff Series in which they have moved into a 2-0 lead and that is exactly where they stand against the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. A controversial late call gave Jimmy Butler two Free Throws with the game tied and with no time left on the clock and it meant the Miami Heat were able to narrowly leave with a 2-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks who have to respond immediately.

In the NBA bubble, there is no time for a team to feel sorry for themselves with PlayOff games scheduled every two days to ensure we can complete the NBA Finals next month. That means there is little time to sit back and make huge adjustments, but the Bucks have to find an answer to the Heat who have given them huge problems throughout the 2019/20 season.

No one associated with the Milwaukee Bucks will be ready to give up on this Series right now knowing they blew a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals last year against the eventual Champions Toronto Raptors. However, the Bucks need to find the right answers for other players to step up their play outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo whose future will be a storyline throughout the 2020/21 season if the Bucks are beaten before the NBA Finals again.

They did look like the favourites to win the NBA Championship during the majority of the season, but Milwaukee have not played to the level needed for some time now. It is getting close to the point where there is no turning back for the Bucks if they can't win Game 3 of the Conference Semi Finals and that means there is a real pressure on the role players.

Milwaukee played well in Game 2, but they are not hitting enough three pointers and even the huge dominance on the boards and having more Free Throws than the Heat was not enough to level the Series. The Heat play with some real fire on the Defensive side of the court to make things difficult for Milwaukee and Miami also have to be pleased with the way the role players are rallying around Jimmy Butler, their own All-Star who is making huge plays in the PlayOffs.

It was the ten more three pointers hit by Miami in Game 2 that helped them edge to the win and the Heat have shown more Offensive consistency than the Bucks through the first two games. They have scored at least 114 points in each of the three games against the Milwaukee Bucks played inside the NBA bubble and that simply means the Number 1 Seed have to find more Offense from somewhere.

With the teams hammering their way into the paint, the fouls are racking up in this Series and that has the potential to lead Game 3 to a surpassing of the total points line set. My one concern is that the referees were widely criticised for a couple of horrific calls down the stretch in Game 2 which may have them wary to reach for the whistle, but both Miami and Milwaukee look for contact and search for a way to the foul line.

I expect a much better shooting effort from Milwaukee when it comes to the three pointers in Game 3 compared with the last one and two of the three games between these teams inside the bubble would have surpassed the mark set for this game.

The over has hit at 6-2 in the last eight games Milwaukee have played following a straight up loss and that side of the total is also 3-1-1 in the last five games Miami have played as the underdog.

Both teams are playing well enough from the field to believe they can score the buckets needed and coupled with the amount of fouls we have seen means the game is extended. I will look for Game 3 to surpass the total mark.


Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: While one team has had almost a full week off to rest and recover for this Western Conference Semi Final Series, the other is coming off a battling and emotional Game 7 success. The Houston Rockets managed to just about hold off the Oklahoma City Thunder in the First Round and there is a feeling they could make life difficult for the Number 1 Seeds in the Western Conference in the Los Angeles Lakers.

However, like the Denver Nuggets, the Houston Rockets have only been given a day off to recover from all of the efforts needed to win Game 7 of the First Round Series. Now they have to face a team that many will have tipped to be favourites to win the NBA Championship and one that is rested and likely been preparing for an eventual Houston win ever since the Rockets moved 3-2 ahead in the First Round Series.

Not closing that out is down to the inconsistent Offensive performances put together by the Houston Rockets with James Harden being a particular culprit. The All-Star has struggled with the strong Defensive performances of Luguentz Dort holding Harden down in the First Round and The Beard is also under pressure to show he can lead a team to a Championship.

Having running mate Russell Westbrook back and building his rhythm will really help James Harden and the Houston Rockets, but they have gone all in on 'small ball basketball' and that means they live and die by the three point shot. The Rockets have been struggling for consistency as I have mentioned and that has seen them shoot 42% from the field and just 35% from three point range in their last five games.

Those marks are going to be difficult to improve against the Los Angeles Lakers who shut down the Portland Trail Blazers in the final four games of the First Round Series. A tiring Trail Blazers team were missing some key players by the end, but the Lakers may feel they can overwhelm what has to be a fatigued Houston team at least very early on in this Conference Semi Final Series.

Rajon Rondo is likely going to suit up for the Lakers and they will look to harass Houston at the three point line, although the Rockets have felt they match up well with the Lakers. Since changing tact and systems, the Rockets have beaten the Lakers twice including in the NBA bubble, although that was a game that LeBron James missed.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis had a very good First Round Series, but they are going to be facing a Houston team that actually played well Defensively in the First Round of the PlayOffs. It is an area in which Houston are looking to improve and I do think they are going to need all of their Defensive effort to try and steal an advantage in Game 1.

We saw the Denver Nuggets just wear down in their Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers and I think bully ball is going to be played by the Lakers against a tired Houston team. While this could be a fascinating Series going forward, I do think the Los Angeles Lakers might take advantage in the second half of Game 1 and pull clear very much like their neighbours did on Thursday.

You never know if the Rockets will suddenly get much hotter from three point range and stun Los Angeles, but I think the reality is that it can be difficult to pick yourself from a Game 7 effort. With limited time to recover I do think the Lakers can take advantage of Houston on Friday.

The Lakers do tend to be an over-rated team for the most part with the public always keen to get behind them, but I think the spread has moved down to a mark from where they can be backed in this Game 1.

Tuesday 15th September

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 7 Pick: In the First Round the Denver Nuggets became only the twelfth team in NBA history who have come from 3-1 down to win a PlayOff Series, but they are on the brink of becoming the first team to do it twice in the same PlayOff run. After falling into a couple of big holes in each of the last two games, the Denver Nuggets have shown how much they believe in each other to knuckle down Defensively and turn things around in the second half.

The Los Angeles Lakers are already waiting for the winner of this Series in the Western Conference Finals, but their local rivals the Clippers have really made hard work for themselves. They needed six games to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the First Round, but the big concern for the team is blowing a 16 point lead in Game 5 and then a 19 point lead in Game 6 to fall into this difficult position.

All of the pressure is on the Los Angeles Clippers as the favourites to win the Series and that is what the Denver Nuggets are keen to remind the press. After twice blowing big chances to progress there is going to be a weight on the shoulders of the Clippers and even if they get off to a strong start they have to erase the painful memories felt in the last couple of games.

At times the Clippers have looked like they can do what they like Offensively, but it was a stretch of eleven possessions in a row without scoring a bucket which cost them in Game 6. Too often in this Series the Clippers have gone cold at inopportune times and that has allowed the steady Nuggets to fight back and eventually take control of the games.

The Defensive performances have really impressed considering how poor Denver were on that side of the court for much of the First Round Series win over the Utah Jazz. Again it has to be said for long stretches the Clippers have been able to do what they like Offensively, but those big streaks of cold shooting have hampered them and the Nuggets need to be given credit for that.

However, you can't ignore the fact that Los Angeles Clippers have had the game plan to get into a position of having a big lead. Doc Rivers has made it clear his team need to remain strong physically and emotionally in Game 7, while they do have a player with previous at this stage of the PlayOffs in Kawhi Leonard.

Jamal Murray might be a little banged up for Denver and that could also be a huge benefit for the favourites if he is not at his best. I don't doubt that Murray plays in Game 7 with the season on the line, but if he is slightly off the mark it is going to need someone to stand up alongside the dominant Nikola Jurkic.

The Nuggets have to be respected because they seem to not know when they are beaten, but the Los Angeles Clippers are the better team. There is a real pressure on the favourites, but I think they have the players to cope and I can't see them blowing a big lead for a third time in a row.

Denver have the against the spread stats, but two of the three Los Angeles wins in the series have seen them cover this mark and I do still think they are the most likely winners.

MY PICKS: 01/09 Boston Celtics + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/09 Milwaukee Bucks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/09 Boston Celtics-Toronto Raptors Under 215 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/09 Los Angeles Clippers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/09 Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks Over 223 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/09 Los Angeles Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

15/09 Los Angeles Clippers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Semi Finals: 3-3, - 0.27 Units

NBA First Round Update: 20-17-3, + 1.26 Units

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (September 14-16)

The first international break of the season has come to a close and the time before the next one in October feels like a critical period to really see the campaign for clubs begin to take shape.

By the time the October break comes around, the Premier League clubs will have all played 8 games domestically and those involved in European competition will have played a third of their Group games in a bid to move through to the Knock Out Rounds.

We also move through the Third Round of the League Cup and I do think the reassessment of what clubs are expecting from this season will be made in that October two week break. I also think it can be a critical time for clubs to make decisions about their managers and which direction their teams are going, while others will be looking to get through the two week break despite the pressure that comes about making changes.


It is a big month for my team Manchester United and manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with some very difficult games coming up in the League. I think the Europa League Group is one they should negotiate without too many issues, but the League games coming up look very difficult on paper and the manager could be under big pressure if United can't pick up the kind of number of points expected.

I will be putting out a few more thoughts on United before the European games coming up this midweek.


The first month of the Football Picks were not as productive as I would have liked- some of it was down to bad luck, others down to poor selections. The new month will hopefully begin to turn things around and that begins with this weekend selections followed by the Fantasy Football thoughts for GameWeek 5.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of this weekend coming out of the international break is from Anfield where Liverpool will be expected to make it five wins from five in the League.

You don't always know how a team will react out of an international break with the short turnaround between players arriving back from all over the world and getting onto the field in this League game. It would still be a big surprise if Jurgen Klopp is not picking his strongest team even with a Champions League game coming up this week and I think that is a Liverpool team that will have too much for Newcastle United.

Steve Bruce might not have been the first choice of many of the fans of Newcastle United, especially not to replace a much loved manager in Rafael Benitez, but a win at Tottenham Hotspur and a home draw with Watford has got the team moving in the right direction. He has also shown signs of making Newcastle United tough to beat like Benitez had done, although his team are lacking some quality and I would fear for them at Liverpool if they were to concede early in this one.

The biggest question mark about Newcastle United is whether they have enough goals in the side and I think that is going to be a problem this weekend. Even a backup goalkeeper that Liverpool have to continue to use may not make much of a difference with the feeling that Newcastle United are going to sit deep and try and frustrate their opponents for long periods.

Newcastle United don't have a very good record here in recent seasons and last season they crumbled to a 4-0 defeat. Liverpool are creating enough chances to think they are going to be pretty comfortable on Saturday again and I think they can cover this big Asian Handicap, even if they have not been at their best defensively.

In the two home games played Liverpool have looked very threatening and I think an early goal in this one would allow the floodgates to be opened much like what happened to Newcastle United when they visited Norwich City last month. I can't deny this is a big Asian Handicap for any team to cover in the Premier League, but Liverpool have managed to win 9 of their last 21 home League games by at least three goal margins.

That might have been a bigger number if not for a late goal conceded to Arsenal in the last fixture here. Newcastle United can be a very stubborn opponent and last season only Liverpool managed to win by this margin against them, but Norwich City looked to have exposed what can be a soft underbelly and an early Liverpool goal could lead to a very one-sided fixture on Saturday.


Brighton v Burnley Pick: On paper this may not be a fixture that leaps off the page as one that could be featuring a lot of goals, but there has been enough about both Burnley and Brighton in the opening month of the season to think that is not going to be the case on Saturday.

Graham Potter's approach for Brighton might not have been rewarded with too many points from the last three League games, but they have been a touch unfortunate. There were enough chances created to beat West Ham United, while the home defeat to Southampton was very much down to being reduced to ten men in the first half.

All teams could struggle at Manchester City, but Brighton gave a good account of themselves and they should have scored there. Defensively there are one or two questions that come with a more positive style of football, but Brighton should be able to create chances against this Burnley team.

On the other hand Burnley have also been unfortunate and created enough in their first four games to believe they can give Brighton plenty of think about too. Ashley Barnes has been a player in form and Burnley have scored in four of their five games played in all competitions this season.

It does look like a game that should see both teams having chances to score, which was the case last season too. The one concern is that there is a slight lack of quality in the final third which can be an issue for both Brighton and Burnley, but I think the approach taken by the former's manager Graham Potter will ensure an open game is produced, one far more than what would have been expected when Chris Hughton was in charge at the Amex Stadium.

Both teams have only scored in one of Brighton's four League games so far, but the underlying stats suggest it should have happened in more than that and I will back both teams to hit the net in this one.


Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: Periods of sloppy play have really cost Manchester United in the first month of the new season and that has put Ole Gunnar Solskjaer under some pressure to start producing better results. Missed penalties against both Wolves and Crystal Palace have seen the club drop at least three points, while a dominant first half at Southampton was not followed up as another two points slipped away.

While the underlying statistics say Manchester United have been a little unfortunate, I do think there is a vulnerability about this team even with the additions of Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Daniel James.

It says something that those are three of the better performers at the club through the first month of the season, but Manchester United are going to have to step up their levels with a more difficult set of games coming up. First up is this home game against a Leicester City team who will be full of belief after remaining unbeaten through August and who have already drawn at Chelsea in the League.

Brendan Rodgers does want his team to get forward and create chances, but they are also still happy to sit back and counter with the pace of James Maddison and Jamie Vardy a real threat for opponents to deal with. Counter attacking is what Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wants his team to thrive upon too though and I do think this could be a match in which both teams are standing off one another at times.

The onus is on Manchester United to win the game, but that will play into the Leicester City hands and so finding the right balance is going to be all important.

I do have to say both teams have actually defended pretty well for the most part in the early stages of the season and the team that has the cleaner overall performance could edge to the three points. Mistakes are going to be crucial to determining the outcome, but even then this does not feel like a game that will be featuring a glut of goals.

5 of the last 7 between these clubs has produced three or more goals shared out, but last season it took two goals in the final seven minutes to get to that number in their meeting at Old Trafford. Since Leicester City returned to the Premier League, 2 of their 5 games here have ended with two or fewer goals shared out and I think this is going to be a tight affair on Saturday too.

Manchester United are beginning to look potentially short of numbers at the back, especially if Aaron Wan-Bissaka can't be passed fit, but I think the two defences will still have a strong showing on the day. Backing under 2.5 goals at odds against looks to be the play here and that is going to be my selection as I hope Manchester United can get back on track with a home win.


Sheffield United v Southampton Pick: This looks a weekend in which I feel comfortable making a number of plays, but one fixture I can't really get a good grip on comes from Bramall Lane.

Both teams scoring would not surprise me and I can see all three results being a possibility, but I don't really know how to feel about either of these teams just yet.

Sheffield United work very hard and have shown considerable heart to come from behind a couple of times already this season to earn points. Southampton have been a team who have been playing better than their results with chances being created and I think it is a match that I will sit back and take note of the way it develops.

With other options out there, I am moving past this fixture.


Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: Over the last twelve months Crystal Palace have been a very effective away team in the Premier League and they finished the 2018/19 season with the sixth best away record in the Division.

The style of play employed by Roy Hodgson has been very effective against the top teams as the results have shown. Since the beginning of the 2018/19 season, Crystal Palace have won at Manchester City, Arsenal, Wolves and Manchester United, while they have earned a draw at Old Trafford in that time too and narrowly been beaten at Liverpool in a game they took the lead in.

This makes Crystal Palace a dangerous opponent for Tottenham Hotspur who have not looked at their best in the first month of the season. Defensively there have been some real question marks about the performances, but Tottenham Hotspur have been decent enough going forward and I do think the close of the European transfer window will settle this squad down.

Christian Eriksen has to be more focused on the immediate future with Spurs and I also think the likes of Jan Vertonghen will be back in the centre of defence to help a team who have conceded in each of their opening four games. There are still some problems for Tottenham Hotspur to deal with, especially in those defensive areas, but I think a more settled squad can produce a good performance before the Champions League returns during the week.

To be fair to Tottenham Hotspur they have created chances in the majority of their games and it is only a poor defensive performance that has let them down. They did beat Crystal Palace here a few months ago so they won't be intimidated by the very strong record The Eagles have at some of the top clubs over the last several months, while most would have seen that Crystal Palace were a touch fortunate to win at Old Trafford.

If Crystal Palace defend very well they could frustrate their hosts, but I think teams have found opportunities against them and even the return of James Tomkins may not be enough to change that immediately. With that in mind I think Tottenham Hotspur will have a little too much for them on the day and I would not be surprised if they matched the margin of victory they had against Crystal Palace in the first game in this Stadium.

Backing Tottenham Hotspur to cover the Asian Handicap is my selection.


Wolves v Chelsea Pick: This is a big Premier League game for both Wolves and Chelsea as two teams who have made slow starts to the new campaign look for some momentum. A big month is coming up before the next international break with a couple of European fixtures to be negotiated and Nuno Espirito Santo and Frank Lampard would love to ease some of the pressure by helping their teams earn the three points here.

It is going to be an interesting game as neither team has defended as well as they would like, but both have also shown they can score goals. That should show up on Saturday out of the international break and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out.

That was how the corresponding fixture ended last season and I think the way Chelsea have been playing this season will contribute to that being the outcome here. Frank Lampard does want his side to get forward and create chances, but that has left them vulnerable the other way and it is not surprise that 4 of Chelsea's 5 games under Lampard have ended with at least three goals produced.

Wolves games have not seen as many goals before the game at Goodison Park, but there have been chances for teams and they have struggled for clean sheets. This is a team who do enough to create opportunities for themselves though and I would not be surprised if both teams score here with the 1-1 scoreline perhaps the one that worries me the most.

I don't think either team will be happy with that result, so I am expecting to see both Wolves and Chelsea looking to be positive for much of the ninety minutes. Only a Paul Pogba penalty miss prevented the Wolves game against Manchester United hitting at least three goals and that is not going to put me off in backing there being at least three goals in this one.

I mentioned ahead of the game against Manchester United that Wolves had been involved in a lot of high-scoring games against the top six teams last season and that would have continued if Pogba had scored his penalty. This is a fixture where both teams look capable of scoring while not being the most convincing at the back and I think the odds against quotes of seeing at least three goals is a big price and one that can't be ignored.


Norwich City v Manchester City Pick: The late afternoon Premier League game comes from Carrow Road and if Daniel Farke continues to ask his Norwich City team to play in the style they have been for the first month of the season, it could be a very entertaining game.

However it is also a style that Manchester City will be very good at exploiting and I really don't think this is going to be anything but an away win. Manchester City have been creating chances for fun in the opening weeks of the season and only a very lucky Tottenham Hotspur team have avoided conceding at least three goals and also escaping without being beaten.

The Champions have scored five times at West Ham United and three times at Bournemouth in wins away from home in the Premier League and they have created wide openings in all of their fixtures so far. The international break can snap some of the momentum created with the players coming back from far and wide, but this is a deep squad and the likes of David Silva, John Stones and Gabriel Jesus have been at home preparing for this fixture.

Aymeric Laporte's injury is a big blow for Pep Guardiola as the one defender he relied on the most. I do think that leaves Manchester City short of cover and perhaps even a little short of quality in defensive areas, but they will make do and the manager is not someone who is going to use the injury as an excuse considering Kevin De Bruyne missed a large chunk of last season and Manchester City still won the domestic treble.

One thing the injury does do is give Norwich City an opportunity to contribute to this fixture and they have shown they can create chances in their first four League games despite playing two of the top four from last season. In the weeks ahead there might be a real possibility to start racking up the points, but for this fixture I would say it is going to need a super effort to be very competitive which is about as far as I think Norwich City can go.

I do think the home team can play a part, but Manchester City should have enough quality in the final third to really open up this Norwich City defence missing two key performers. It might turn into a high-scoring game in which both score, but my edge goes to Manchester City and I will back them to win a game featuring at least four goals shared out, a number that has been hit in all four of their Premier League games so far.

Norwich City have been beaten 4-1 at Liverpool and 2-3 here by Chelsea so goals should be in the offing on Saturday. I can't really back Manchester City to cover this Asian Handicap as they will need to win by at least three goals to earn a full payout, while Norwich City don't defend well enough to believe they can stay within that number with any confidence either.

Last season the large majority of Manchester City away games did not feature as many as four goals shared out, but I do think the loss of Laporte might leave them a touch vulnerable at the back. That is especially the case against an attacking Norwich City team and in the first game without Laporte's influence in the team and so backing the Champions to win a high-scoring game is the play.


Bournemouth v Everton Pick: The first of the live Sunday offerings from the Premier League comes from the Vitality Stadium and you have to believe this is going to be a game that does feature goals.

It might be a surprise to say that about any Everton away game considering they have yet to score on their travels in the Premier League and 5 of the last 6 away League games have featured two or fewer goals shared out. Even then it would be a massive surprise if they can't create good chances against this Bournemouth defence which has been decimated by injury and who have given opponents massive opportunities in each of their four Premier League games played so far this season.

Those chances are a major reason Bournemouth are set as the home underdog, but I couldn't back Everton to win considering their lack of goals in away games. They might get one or two here this weekend because of the porous defence the hosts have been playing with, but I can't be having Everton as a favourite.

Everton have not won a League game here with 2 losses and 2 draws in the 4 games since Bournemouth were promoted. And for my criticisms of Bournemouth defensively, this is a team who have been still looking productive going forward, one that has scored in all of their Premier League games played this season and who will have noted the problems Wolves caused Everton two weeks ago.

While Marco Silva's men have looked good defensively for the most part, they are far from watertight as the Wolves game underlined. Watford, Aston Villa and Wolves all have had decent openings against Everton and Bournemouth have a system which does produce attacking returns.

3 of the 4 League games between these teams hosted by Bournemouth have featured at least three goals and I will back that to be the outcome of this one.


Watford v Arsenal Pick: When you think of Arsenal playing Watford you do tend to believe the underdog has a big chance of an upset because they are a bogey team for The Gunners, but since returning to the top flight it is Arsenal who have won 6 of their 8 meetings in the Premier League.

The side have a very good record at Vicarage Road too and I do think Arsenal are looking a tempting price to win here.

The only factor that is hard to really put a value in is the return of Quique Sanchez Flores who takes over from sacked Javi Gracia for his second spell as manager of Watford. In the 2015/16 season Flores took Watford to 13th in the Premier League table and to the FA Cup Semi Final, but that was not enough to save him from the chop by the notoriously impatient Pozzo family.

He clearly impressed enough to be given a second run at Vicarage Road but his Watford team were beaten heavily by Arsenal in both League games in the season he managed the club. Quique Sanchez Flores did lead Watford to an upset at the Emirates Stadium in the FA Cup, but he is coming into a side that have been struggling defensively and with little time to work with players between the return from international duty and this game kicking off on Sunday afternoon.

Arsenal should be much more settled and they have a front line that looks like it will provide plenty of goals in the months ahead. They have been creating chances for fun and it is making up for some of the defensive vulnerabilities that continue to be displayed by the Champions League chasing club.

Ultimately I do think the Watford defensive problems are far grander of the two clubs at the moment and that can be the difference on the day. It should be a tight game with Watford trying to impress a new manager, but I think Arsenal will edge to the three points and they are at just a good enough price to be worth backing this weekend.


Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes on Monday Night Football as Aston Villa try to win their second League game of the season. It looks a big test in front of them against a West Ham United team who had been in fine form going into the last international break.

Manuel Pellegrini has to be very happy with the way West Ham United have bounced back from the opening day hammering at the hands of Manchester City. They have won 3 straight games in all competitions and The Hammers have been creating plenty of good goalscoring chances in their wins over Watford, Newport County and Norwich City.

They will continue to take an attacking approach to this fixture as West Ham United look to be one of a number of clubs chasing a top six or seven finish which will come with a potential European berth. So far the quality in the final third is hard to ignore and West Ham United will certainly pose problems for an Aston Villa defence still finding their feet at this level.

James Chester could be back in time for this fixture which will be a boost for Dean Smith's men, but he might be a touch rusty so West Ham United will feel they have the players to exploit any vulnerabilities left in the home team.

Aston Villa have some decent players of their own who have made a mark at the top level of English Football. However losing Trezeguet to suspension is a blow and I do think they are still struggling with the right balance needed to win games in the Premier League.

They do have a good home record against West Ham United with 3 wins from the last 5 hosted at Villa Park, but the latter are the team who have played better through the first month of the season. In fact West Ham United have won 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions and being able to back them on the Asian Handicap in an essential 'Draw No Bet' market looks to be the play.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Burnley Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Leicester City Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City & Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football (GameWeek 5)

I have to say that so far my Fantasy Football campaign has been a little better than average overall, but GW4 proved to be a solid if not spectacular week.

On most occasions I would be happy with the 59 points earned two weeks ago, but I have missed on my Captain for a fourth week in a row and that has to be a source of frustration.

Price changes are again being a real pain in the backside with my decision to pick Xande Siva to make up the fifteen seeing him lose 100K in value. I am not sure how someone with a small ownership is losing money while a player like Anthony Martial remains very high even after over 40,000 players removed him from their squads two weeks ago.

I was one of those and my decision to bring in Manuel Lanzini looks a solid one even if returns were minimal last time out.

Liverpool's first clean sheet in the Premier League was the foundation for the points last time out, but the big contributor was Youri Tielemans who I did keep faith in despite a slow start to the season. My decision to bring in Harry Maguire has proved to be a poor one with 3 points earned from two matches, but I am not going to compound that by keeping him in the squad this month, while Che Adams continues to get into strong positions but has yet to convert those into goals for Southampton.

I am keeping the faith with Adams at least through two more games, but any more failures and I think I will have to think about making a move and accepting he is not going to bring in his pre-season form to the higher League level he is now competing at.

At least not while he is sitting in my squad anyway.

Ahead of GW5 I am going to identify some teams I am looking to get behind over the next four weeks before the next international break and others I am perhaps going to steer clear of.

Next week I will look at a few more individual players as I did in the first three weeks of the season, but I think coming out of the international break and looking at how the next four weeks can shape up for teams is a better plan for this week and something that can aid in transfers that can be made.

Teams That Could Provide Clean Sheets to Get Behind

Burnley- they have had a very difficult opening month of the season, but Burnley have impressed from a defensive standpoint for the most part.

This is a team that are not giving up too many chances and with Brighton, Norwich City, Aston Villa and Everton to come before the next international break, I think they could provide some defensive recruitments for those looking for differential makers.

Everton- there will be many with Everton defenders and I do think they are worth holding onto at the moment. Manchester City visit Goodison Park this months and they do have a difficult game at Bournemouth, but a home game with Sheffield United could produce returns.

They also have some decent fixtures out of the next international break so I would not be overly concerned by the four goals conceded in the last two games.

Tottenham Hotspur- defensive performances have not been great, but Tottenham Hotspur should improve with the European transfer window closed. Home games against Crystal Palace and Southampton as well as trip to Brighton in the next four weeks could be a good chance to get back on track at the back.

Teams That Might Be Worth Avoiding For Clean Sheets

Manchester United- the underlying stats haven't been bad and it has got to the stage where the Official Website wanted to make that clear.

However games against Leicester City, West Ham United, Arsenal and Newcastle United prior to the international break and then Liverpool out of that break means I want to steer clear of an injury hit club.

Liverpool- I have two defenders from the club and I would keep them through GW5 with a home game against Newcastle United to come. However later this month Liverpool face Chelsea and Sheffield United away from home and then host Leicester City and the Alisson situation will determine whether I want to keep doubling up on the leaders at the back.

Leicester City- this is a team who have been performing well defensively even though they only have a single clean sheet. However games away from home at Old Trafford and Anfield and a home one against Tottenham Hotspur might mean the stats are not backed up on the scoreboard for a while.

Teams That Could Produce an Attacking Return

West Ham United- there is some real value in the West Ham United players at the moment considering the form they have shown in the last month in the final third.

Games against Aston Villa, Manchester United, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace suggests they can keep it going.

Chelsea- this is much to do with the value in the Chelsea starters at the moment. Both Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham look like they are set in the first choice eleven for Frank Lampard with only potential Champions League involvement holding them back in the Premier League.

Lampard does like his team getting forward so games at Wolves and at home to Liverpool don't concern me in terms of the goals Chelsea could score. After that they look to be hitting a very productive portion of their schedule too.

Bournemouth- ever since they have been promoted to the Premier League Eddie Howe has made sure his team have been positive with their attacking approach.

Everton, Southampton and West Ham United face Bournemouth this month and I would expect this team to be involved in some high-scoring games so their attacking players could be worth bringing back into squads that have lost faith in them.

Burnley- like I mentioned from their defensive standpoint, Burnley have some decent fixtures coming up after a difficult August. Ashley Barnes will be the main focus of attention, but there are other players here who could return at a decent value.

Teams I Fear for in the Final Third

Manchester United- as a fan of this great club it is hard to see them in both sections to avoid this month. Injuries are hurting the team and some tough games are coming up.

Only Daniel James can really be picked at the value, but the other prices on the attacking players suggest there is better choices out there.

Wolves- a mixed set of games and this is a team who have yet to show any real consistency in the Premier League. I do rate Wolves as a team, but there may be better options out there with teams who don't play Chelsea and Manchester City over the next month.

GameWeek 5 Team

There are some really good choices that can be made to reshape squads coming out of the international break and I imagine there will be plenty using their Wild Card after tough starts to the season.

I am not panicking with my team selection yet and I do think I can shape it to my liking with the weekly transfers rather than having to make wholesale changes.

My one transfer this week has been used to replace Harry Maguire with James Tarkowski- I mentioned the good set of fixtures coming up for Burnley compared with Manchester United and saving the 500K just means more money in the bank for when bigger moves need to be made.

I selected Tarkowski ahead of Matt Lowton despite being 500K more expensive as the centre half can be a real threat from set pieces for Burnley. That would make up for any goals being conceded and I also think he is far more secure in the starting eleven than Lowton.

Overall I am pretty happy with my team and this week the 3-5-2 formation picked is making use of all of the investment made in the midfield players I have in the squad. My front line has yet to really return the kind of points I would have liked, but I am keeping faith in Southampton and Bournemouth for at least a couple of weeks.

My GW5 team can be seen below:

Ederson- Norwich City are going to cause problems for Manchester City as they will for most visitors to Carrow Road this season, but the City goalkeeper remains my first choice goalkeeper even through the Aymeric Laporte injury.

At this moment I would say he is almost the only guaranteed Premier League starter for Manchester City, especially in the back five.

Virgil Van Dijk- Liverpool earned their first clean sheet of the season two weeks ago and I think they have to be favoured to make it two in a row against Newcastle United.

Andrew Robertson- he has actually lost 100K in the official game as the attacking returns have not been produced at a time when Liverpool have not had too many clean sheets. However like his defensive partner Van Dijk, I would not be surprised to see Robertson end with back to back clean sheets.

John Lundstram- effectively a midfielder choice for Sheffield United as they host a Southampton team that can struggle for clean sheets.

Youri Tielemans- I hate playing those players who are facing Manchester United, but Youri Tielemans had a very good game two weeks ago. He is also facing an injury hit opponent.

Manuel Lanzini- as I have mentioned, West Ham United could be ready for some big attacking returns and Manuel Lanzini is a key player for them. I am hoping the international duty with Argentina has not meant he needs a rest, but playing on Monday this week will help recovery time.

Raheem Sterling (VC)- I have got my Captain wrong in four weeks in a row, but I am once again off the Raheem Sterling bandwagon. He should have chances against Norwich City who have been defensively poor, but I do see a situation where he is not given the full ninety minutes after double duty for England.

Champions League games begin this week too so Sterling might be given a chance for a rest at some point which may limit returns.

Bernardo Silva- lots of players have lost faith in Bernardo who has only started two of the four Premier League games this season. However he remains a big part of Pep Guardiola's plans and scored two weeks ago which may spark his season.

Sadio Mane (C)- a home game with Newcastle United should give the Liverpool front three many opportunities to get on the scoreboard. Sadio Mane might also be ready to make a statement after showing real frustrations with partner Mohamed Salah in the win over Burnley.

Che Adams- I am losing patience with Che Adams, but Southampton's main striker is still getting some very good chances. He has to take one soon if he is going to maintain his spot in the Southampton starting eleven and my own squad.

Time is running out but a game at Sheffield United and at home against Bournemouth should be the final chances for Adams to turn his season around.

Joshua King- he is the penalty taker for Bournemouth and the next three weeks look like a very good chance for King to get his season moving. Everton have not defended as well as they would like and have conceded at least twice in back to back League games.

Bench- Michael McGovern, James Tarkowski (I have brought him into my squad for the long-term, but this week I have better options in my starting eleven), Caglar Soyuncu (I would not be surprised if Leicester City were able to keep a clean sheet at Old Trafford against injury hit Manchester United, but other options are more appealing), Xande Silva.