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Showing posts with label GW5. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GW5. Show all posts

Tuesday, 30 August 2022

Premier League Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 5 2022/23 (August 30-September 1)

The intense schedule for the top clubs in the top European Leagues will really begin this week with most of those teams playing twice a week through to mid-November when the break for the World Cup will begin.

Only a September international break cools things down a touch, but for most clubs that just means their players are on the field twice a week for their country rather than for their club.

It is going to mean a lot of rotation and that will impact the Fantasy Football selections, more of which is below.


Premier League Picks GameWeek 5

This has not been a very good start to the Premier League Picks as multiple moments that can change the entire feeling of a match have seemingly gone against my selections.

Penalty misses, early sendings off, or goals being conceded within five minutes of the start of a match have hurt.

World class finishing to erase winning selections with minutes remaining have also been a part of the deal and teams have also blown two goal leads.

It stings, but you have to believe some of those moments will naturally begin to turn back around.

Crystal Palace v Brentford Pick: It has been a difficult opening to the Premier League selections as late goals and Penalty misses sting, but the quick turnaround into a full midweek set of games will hopefully see a change in fortune.

A London derby will open the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday and both Crystal Palace and Brentford will be feeling a little sore after the results on Saturday.

Patrick Vieira's team had travelled to Manchester and led the Champions 0-2, but capitulated in the last 37 minutes in an eventual 4-2 defeat. It will be tough to pick up the Crystal Palace squad after that result and they will be hoping that Wilfred Zaha can return to give them a boost in the build up to this one.

Thomas Frank's team came from behind to earn a point, but the manager believed wastefulness in the final third was costly for Brentford. The woodwork was hit multiple times in the 1-1 draw with Everton and Frank will be keen to see his strikers show a touch more composure when the big chances come their way.

Brentford have been creating plenty of chances in the first month of the season, but the defensive vulnerabilities on display at the end of last season continue to be an issue for the team. They have conceded at least twice in each of their last 4 away Premier League games, but scoring goals has not been a problem and Brentford have scored at least twice in each of their last 4 on their travels in all competitions.

I do think they can pose problems for a Crystal Palace team who have yet to earn a clean sheet this season and who have looked a little unsure of themselves at the back. However, Patrick Viera's team have scored in each of their last 3 Premier League games and have looked pretty good going forward in all of their fixtures played in August.

I can't ignore the fact that both League games between these teams finished goalless last season, but the underlying numbers of the defences early in this campaign has suggested there is some vulnerability about both Brentford and Crystal Palace. The 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous against the selection, but I do think there will be at least three goals shared out between the teams on Tuesday.


Fulham v Brighton Pick: Both Marco Silva and Graham Potter have to be pleased with the Premier League performances from their respective teams in August, but there is still one more game to negotiate before moving in September.

They are heading into this fixture in slightly different form- Fulham have lost back to back away games in all competitions, while Brighton have won their last 3 in a row. However, Fulham's setbacks have been away from Craven Cottage and I do think they have been strong at home in their two Premier League games played here.

Defensively there are some questions, but Fulham have looked really good going forward and have been creating plenty of chances. Alexander Mitrovic has struggled at this level in previous years, but the Serbian striker has been in strong form to open this season including scoring the winning goal against Brentford.

In both games at Craven Cottage, Fulham have started really well and have scored the first goal which has been the key to picking up 4 points from a possible 6. However, there are some questions for a team who have conceded two goals in 4 of their 5 games played in all competitions this season and now have to face a Brighton team who finished last season in fine form.

Losing Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma will have hurt, but the squad have rallied behind Graham Potter and Brighton are playing with confidence. They have looked strong at both ends of the field over the first month of the season and Brighton are unbeaten in 10 in all competitions.

The away form has been particularly impressive and Brighton have won 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games. In 4 of those 7 away League games, Brighton have scored at least twice and I do think they can cause problems for Fulham as long as they can weather the expected early storm.

Both teams may hit the back of the net in this one, but I have to give the lean to Brighton with their long-term form away from home. The goals being conceded by Fulham is a concern, and Brighton have a pretty decent record at Craven Cottage in recent years which has seen them lose 1 of their last 5 visits.

Brighton have won 3 times in that stretch of games and I think on current form The Seagulls may have enough to leave West London with three more points on Tuesday evening.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Deep squads are going to be important for all Premier League clubs in the lead up to the World Cup, but it is especially the case for clubs competing in European competition who will have to become used to playing every three or four days until mid-November.

Thomas Tuchel has a couple of injuries in the squad which are making things difficult, but he will be frustrated by the sending offs that have led to suspensions. Conor Gallagher will be missing out on Tuesday, while Wesley Fofana may not be signed in time despite the fact that the transfer has moved forward.

At least Kalidou Koulibaly is back and Chelsea are coming in behind a victory over Leicester City.

However, you do have to question whether that win has sapped some of the energy in the Chelsea legs- they spent over 70 minutes playing with ten men on Saturday and a tough away game at St Mary's will present a real challenge for the visiting team.

Southampton are coming into the fixture off a home defeat and the team have struggled for performances at home going back to last season. They have lost 4 of their last 5 home Premier League games and Southampton are struggling for consistency under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

I do think Southampton showed enough on Saturday to be considered a threat and they will feel they can outwork Chelsea if there is any tiredness in the away dressing room. The Saints have created some decent openings in their fixtures played this month, but Southampton have yet to really convince defensively and I do think Chelsea are strong enough in the final third to find the goals to win this fixture.

Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 games at St Mary's and they have scored at least twice in each of those victories. They are likely going to need to score at least two goals to win this Premier League game and I think Thomas Tuchel's men have shown they can find a way to scoring the goals to secure the victory.


Leeds United v Everton Pick: Two big clubs in English Football both flirted with relegation last season from the Premier League and Leeds United and Everton must be thinking about consolidation at this level over the next nine months.

The start made by Leeds United will have their fans believing they can achieve much more than that, but Jesse Marsch will want to keep his players focused on each match. The defeat at Brighton may be a reminder to the players and the fans that there is more work to do, but Leeds United have every chance of bouncing back in front of their own fans.

Last season was a challenging time for Leeds United at Elland Road, but they have won all three games played here this month and have scored at least twice in each victory. Jesse Marsch looks to have found a strong balance between attack and defence and that has shown up at home.

He will certainly feel his Leeds United team can do enough to beat Everton who have struggled for clean sheets and simply have not scored enough goals. Dominic Calvert-Lewin continues to be a big miss, while Neal Maupay will be making his debut having signed from Brighton knowing he has some big boots to fill.

I do think Maupay can make an impact for Everton who have been creating chances, but just lacked a finishing touch to some of the football played. However, Everton continue to look vulnerable at the back and I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to exploit that, especially at home.

Brentford should have beaten Everton on Saturday and I think this game will follow a similar path with the home team having the majority of the stronger chances. Frank Lampard's men have shown they can be pretty stubborn to beat, but Everton have not faced the toughest fixture list over the last two weeks and have still had to ride their luck at times.

The first goal will be important, but Leeds United can get that and that could lay the foundation for another three points at home.


Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: Three wins from three relatively decent fixtures did not tell us too much about Arsenal, but the character shown in coming from behind to beat Fulham will have more people taking notice. There is no doubt that Mikel Arteta and the board have put together a strong squad and one that is young enough to grow together, but the manager will be the first to admit that bigger tests are yet to be faced.

At the start of the season some may have felt Aston Villa could provide that test, but Steven Gerrard's team have been underachieving all season. There are suggestions that Gerrard is not very happy and that the players are also not on the same page as the manager and these are the kind of stories that usually prelude a change in direction at a club.

I don't think the fans will be too disappointed if Steven Gerrard does leave the club as many are complaining that the football is as turgid as you will ever get to see. Some have even pointed out that the team looks to have gone backwards since the Sacking of Dean Smith and that despite the huge investment that has been made in the last two transfer windows.

The defeats to Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and West Ham United are made all the worse when you think those teams are a combined 0-1-8 when not playing Aston Villa this season.

There is quality in the squad that has to be respected, but if the players have fallen out with the manager, it can be difficult to imagine Aston Villa causing too many problems for Arsenal. Defensively they have been struggling and could be without Tyrone Mings and Diego Carlos for this one, while Arsenal are a team who are flying at home and playing with a swagger we have not seen for a long time.

Last season Arsenal beat Aston Villa 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium and I would not be surprised if The Gunners are able to match that margin of victory if they can score the first goal this weekend. The chances being created at home and Aston Villa's poor recent away record in the Premier League suggests Arsenal are going to be on the front foot for much of the fixture and they can win well.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: A month ago you would have seen plenty of predictions of how the Premier League will shake up over the course of the next few months and many would have tipped up Bournemouth for an immediate return to the Championship.

Plenty of others would have suggested that Wolves could slip into trouble too, especially as they had a miserable end to the last campaign.

Bruno Lage has to be a little worried considering the early season form, but the Wolves board have backed their manager with some signings made to strengthen the team. Holding onto Ruben Neves will be a huge achievement, but Wolves are still struggling for goals and they have now failed to win any of their last 11 Premier League games.

They have created some chances, but Wolves have not defended as well as they would have liked even if it took a world class strike to secure point against them on Sunday. Newcastle United did enough to deserve that result and Wolves will be under pressure in what should be a tough away game.

Bournemouth are another who are trying to recover from a disappointing result this past weekend and the 9-0 defeat at Anfield will have embarrassed all associated with the club. Scott Parker continues to let all know that he needs more help, but Bournemouth are unlikely to have new faces involved in this one on Wednesday.

The Cherries have beaten Aston Villa at home this season so have to be respected, but they are not a team that have looked as good going forward as they would have liked. Some of that may be down to the fact that Bournemouth have faced some of the toughest teams in the Division after the opening game against Aston Villa, but this is a much more winnable fixture.

The first goal feels like it will be massive- Bournemouth's poor defensive performances are a worry against a Wolves team that do have pace and some quality in the final third. However, Wolves have lost the winning feeling and this could be a close match.

I don't think there will be much between them on the night, but Wolves may have just enough to steal the points and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap.

UPDATE: I wrote this before the news of Scott Parker's departure from Bournemouth was being confirmed. It could impact the players in a positive way- they will feel the previous manager has thrown them under the bus with some of his comments and it may produced a big reaction from them.

I still think Wolves will edge to the points on quality alone, but the dynamics are a little different now.


Manchester City v Nottingham Forest Pick: Wins are all that matters at the end of the day, but Manchester City will not want to continue having to fight back from two goals down as they have been in each of their last two Premier League fixtures. Some late misses prevented Manchester City coming back to beat Newcastle United, but that was not the case on Saturday as they fought back in a 4-2 win over Crystal Palace.

Pep Guardiola will be demanding more control from his players before the Champions League Group Stage begins next week and Manchester City also have some tougher games coming up.

The manager will be demanding that control begins on Wednesday when hosting Nottingham Forest, a team who have looked really open at the back and yet to show a consistency in the final third.

Nottingham Forest played attractive football against Tottenham Hotspur, but they were not able to create great openings and were perhaps a little fortunate to only lose by two goals on the day. Dean Henderson saved a Penalty for a second home game in succession, but the Manchester United player on loan at the City Ground is going to be a busy player on Wednesday.

The Tricky Trees will need Henderson at his best, but Nottingham Forest were well beaten at Newcastle United in their first away game. Everton created a lot of chances against Nottingham Forest too and that has to be a major concern for Steve Cooper ahead of a game against the Champions who have scored at least three goals in their last 3 Premier League games.

At home Manchester City have been very dominant and scored at least three goals in 4 of their last 5 at the Etihad Stadium, while banging in four in both home games against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace this month. I expect some changes to be made to the starting eleven, but Manchester City should have plenty of quality on the field and they are capable of covering this big Asian Handicap mark.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: An early London derby between two teams who will be chasing European places in the Premier League come the end of the season will be played on Wednesday as the first month of the campaign draws to a close.

It has been a more productive month for Tottenham Hotspur, although Antonio Conte will be looking for improved performances even if the results have been pretty good. The win at Nottingham Forest will have given Tottenham Hotspur some confidence, but Antonio Conte will be asking his players to just show a bit more composure all around.

He will be the first to remind the squad that this is going to be a much tougher test against a West Ham United team who have finally won a Premier League game for the first time this season. It was far from a vintage performance from David Moyes' team, but they did enough to beat Aston Villa and will be looking to back that up.

New signings are still bedding in though and West Ham United look short of defensive numbers with injury issues meaning there are vulnerabilities that can be exploited by the visiting team. The attacking side of their football has not really been firing as the manager would have hoped either and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can snap their run of consecutive losses at the London Stadium.

You have to believe Tottenham Hotspur can create the chances to do that as long as they can weather what could be an early West Ham United storm. David Moyes had set his team up to be very effective against the top teams last season, but West Ham United have been well beaten by Manchester City and Brighton at the London Stadium this month and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are playing well enough to secure another away victory in the space of less than a week.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: Eddie Howe is doing a very strong job as manager of Newcastle United, but there will be a frustration with some key injuries that have been picked up.

They lost Callum Wilson last week, while Allan Saint-Maximin picked up an injury against Wolves that is likely going to keep him out of this one. Alexander Isak could be involved for the first time since being signed from Real Sociedad, but Newcastle United may not have the same bite going forward as they did when facing Manchester City a couple of weeks ago.

I expect Newcastle United to be a threat from set pieces and their counter attack could hurt a Liverpool team that have played a high line under Jurgen Klopp. They have been able to do that with confidence previously, but injuries have left Liverpool a little more vulnerable and I do think Newcastle United can have some success.

However, Liverpool are going to be a lot more confident having thumped Bournemouth on Saturday and I do expect the home team to get forward and create chances. They have done that all season and Newcastle United are a team that allowed Brighton and Manchester City to create plenty against them.

Only an inspired Nick Pope has prevented Newcastle United from falling to defeat already this season, but they are likely going to need him at his best again. The Liverpool squad will begin to look much stronger in the next couple of weeks, but they have shown there is still enough quality to win matches.

Things have just seemed to conspire against Liverpool early in this season, while Newcastle United have perhaps had fortune on their side. However, I think Liverpool kick on from the win over Bournemouth and the injuries in key attacking areas may leave Newcastle United short in this one as Liverpool perhaps win by a big enough margin to cover this Asian Handicap line.


Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: Winning at St Mary's will have given the Manchester United players another shot of confidence, especially when you consider how poorly they have played away from Old Trafford for a number of months. 7 straight away losses underlines the point, but a gritty win at Southampton along with the clean sheet will keep the momentum going under Erik ten Hag.

Antony has been signed and that is a move endorsed by the manager, although he is unlikely to be playing on Thursday.

It will mean the starting eleven have to impress ten Hag with the likes of Casemiro and Cristiano Ronaldo others pushing for starts and I do think Manchester United have a few more options now. Regardless, Erik ten Hag has shown that reputations mean nothing and only form and doing what is expected on the field will be good enough to keep players in the starting line up.

Manchester United have not had the best of recent visits to the King Power Stadium, but they may not have a better chance to get the better of Leicester City.

Brendan Rodgers has seen his team look very vulnerable defensively and they have lost 3 Premier League games in a row. The last defeat came at Stamford Bridge despite the fact that Chelsea were reduced to ten men early on, while Leicester City have looked weak at both ends of the field in their opening three League games before the loss last Saturday.

Even in that one Chelsea created enough chances against Leicester City, which is going to be encouraging for Manchester United when noting that The Blues were down to ten men for 70 minutes.

James Maddison is a doubt and his absence would be a big blow for Leicester City, while Manchester United will feel they have the momentum behind them anyway. This is never an easy place to visit, but Leicester City have conceded two goals to both Brentford and Southampton here and Manchester United look a big price at odds against to win.

This won't be easy and I expect there will be tense moments to ride out for the visitors, but I am looking for the quality in the final third to just about give Manchester United the edge to earn the full points on offer.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leeds United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2022/23: 12-22, - 20.48 Units (68 Units Staked, - 30.12% Yield)


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5

Patience is always the key in playing any type of Fantasy game and not making any rash decisions when things have not gone to plan early is the absolute state of mind you have to maintain.

That isn't easy when big priced players are underperforming, but GameWeek 4 was a much stronger one.

In saying that, I am still not sure how my Captain failed to return even a single assist in a game in which his team managed to score NINE goals. The only saving grace is that many would have selected Mo Salah as their Captain for the week and the rest of my team made up for the lack of production from the Liverpool forward.


The couple of players that are of real concern are Leon Bailey and Gabriel Martinelli.

The latter has at least returned early and his price point has moved up markedly, but a couple of games in which he has not been as effective is something I have noted.

Arsenal have a solid squad of players and the likes of Emile Smith Rowe will be pushing Martinelli, although for now he is a keeper with other issues to address.

I have already mentioned how intense the schedule is between now and November and that is likely going to mean rotations- that means a strong bench is needed to make up for any players that are surprisingly rested.

With that in mind, my transfers this week are pretty easy having held one on GameWeek 4 to use ahead of the midweek fixtures. Leon Bailey has to leave the squad with the upcoming games and being out of favour under Steven Gerrard, while Zinchenko could miss out on Wednesday and then has a difficult game at Old Trafford to come, assuming he is back by the weekend.

I am looking to bring back Nico Williams of Nottingham Forest who has a good set of fixtures coming up after the visit to Manchester City and who looks like he could offer plenty of attacking returns. The Leeds United fixtures also look pretty appealing before the trip to Manchester United next month and so downgrading Zinchenko into a £4.1 million Williams opens the door to move Bailey into Rodrigo or Jack Harrison.

Patrick Bamford continues to miss time so Rodrigo looks the superior short-term choice and also is a potential player that can help to rebuild the bank after the drop in prices for both Bailey and Marcus Rashford hurt me early.


The Captain choice is a tough one this week- Erling Haaland's performance against Crystal Palace is obviously catching the eye, while Nottingham Forest have looked really weak defensively in the system being played by Steve Cooper. However, Pep Guardiola has already begun to troll the Fantasy players around the world by suggesting he will be rotating Haaland as soon as Manchester City have to play twice a week and this would be the perfect game to give Julian Alvarez the start.

It is enough to put me off Erling Haaland and give Mo Salah another chance- as disappointing as his return was on Saturday, he had a couple of great chances to score and I think he will have more against Newcastle United. Eddie Howe's team is much improved, but Brighton and Manchester City have created plenty of chances against them already this season and only an inspired Nick Pope has prevented defeat.

He will need to be as inspired on Wednesday and I think Mo Salah edges out Gabriel Jesus for the armband.

Good luck to all over the coming three days before GameWeek 6's deadline hits on Saturday morning.

Friday, 17 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 5 Picks 2021 (September 17-19)

The hype had been building over two weeks and Old Trafford was rocking heading to the pubs and bars around town before heading into the Stadium.

Most players might not have been able to deal with everything that surrounded the move back 'home', but Cristiano Ronaldo is not most players.

Two goals, a 4-1 Manchester United win and the team are top of the table after four games have been played in the Premier League.

Excitement was going to be hard to contain, but the club were brought back down to earth with the latest setback in the Champions League as Manchester United faltered in their 2-1 defeat at Young Boys. 7 losses in 11 Champions League games is a massive disappointment for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Manchester United and the pressure is on to make sure they are not dumped out of a weak looking Group.

For now the attention will turn back to the Premier League with the fixtures being played from Friday through to Sunday this weekend. I will have a few thoughts about GW5 of the FPL game below after putting down my thoughts for the fixtures to be played.


Newcastle United v Leeds United PickThe opening Premier League match of the weekend will be played on Friday night and both Newcastle United and Leeds United will be desperately searching for the first win of the season.

Both had to face 'Big Six' clubs last weekend and they were both beaten by three goal margins.

Newcastle United were in a difficult situation as they travelled to Old Trafford to face Cristiano Ronaldo in his 'homecoming' and the Portuguese superstar scored twice as Steve Bruce's men were brushed aside. A tetchy press conference after the match showed the growing tension between Steve Bruce and the fans and local media and it could be a toxic atmosphere to play in for the home team if the game is not going the way the fans will be expecting.

A long injury list is not helping the cause and Steve Bruce could be without key players in attacking areas. Callum Wilson's absence will be a huge hurdle to overcome, even though Newcastle United are facing a Leeds United team who have not found the balance Marcelo Bielsa would have been hoping for this season.

Defensively Leeds United have been struggling massively, but they are not creating the same kind of chances as they were last season. The struggle in the final third may be down to the fact that Leeds United have faced three of the current top four and they were better when facing Burnley, the weakest team they have faced so far this season.

It will be encouraging for a Leeds United team who are potentially missing two or three important defenders for this game. They will have seen the amount of chances that Newcastle United have been allowing opponents to create against them and Leeds United did the Premier League double over this club last season.

That will help with the mental side of things and I do think Leeds United are the better of the two teams and especially in their current state. The injuries in the home squad leaves them vulnerable and I do think Leeds United can take advantage with their attacking threat at Turf Moor most likely to be replicated than efforts at Manchester United or against Liverpool.

Things are never easy at St James' Park, but Leeds United will feel they have the edge even through the defensive problems they are dealing with. No Callum Wilson will help overcome those, while Marcelo Bielsa's team should be able to create enough chances to secure the full three points for the first time this season.


Wolves v Brentford PickThere will be plenty for these two clubs to look at from the early season fixtures and they will largely be happy with what the players have produced.

Bruno Lage's Wolves were finally rewarded for a very positive start to the season with a first win of the campaign. They have deserved so much more than they have gotten from the early fixtures, but Lage will be still be demanding his players work on their finishing which has been letting them down.

Last Saturday they finally took a couple of chances in the 0-2 win at Watford, while Wolves continue to play well defensively. They are not giving up a lot of chances and Wolves fans will head to Molineux expecting to see a first win of the season.

Brentford are a team that has to be respected, but Thomas Frank has to be a little concerned with the attacking side of their game. The side have scored a single goal in 3 Premier League games and Brentford are not exactly creating a lot of chances in their recent games either.

Defensively they can be stubborn and hard to break down and only an injury time goal prevented Brentford from making it 4 unbeaten in the Premier League. While there are questions about them in the final third, Brentford have produced encouraging displays defensively, although the fixture list looks much more difficult in the coming weeks than in the opening month.

It will be a challenge for Thomas Frank to pick his players up after the setback of last Saturday and Brentford are going to have to weather a storm that Wolves have brought against every opponent they have faced this season. Containing the home team will not be easy considering how effective they have been at creating chances and much is going to depend on how efficient Wolves are in front of goal.

Wolves are not easy to trust when you think of some of the glaring misses and they needed an own goal to get going at Vicarage Road. Brentford will not give anything away easily, but I think Wolves have the momentum of the win at Watford behind them and I do think they can back that victory up with another this weekend.

Goals may be hard to come by, but the feeling is that Wolves are going to create the better chances and it feels like the win last weekend will be important to them going forward.


Burnley v Arsenal PickThe defeat at Brentford was a pretty dreadful result for Arsenal, but the others to Chelsea and Manchester City may be more forgivable.

The manner of those losses would have hurt the fans, but Mikel Arteta will know his rebuilding process is still in transition and Arsenal are short of those top teams. Last weekend they looked much better as injuries have cleared up and they fully deserved the win over Norwich City.

1-0 could easily have been a much wider victory and Arsenal will head to Turf Moor with some confidence after the first three points of the season were secured. They are facing a Burnley team who capitulated at Everton on Monday Night Football having taken the lead and the defensive problems are surprising early in the season.

While I do think the manager will rectify those, Burnley may be vulnerable to an Arsenal team that can create chances and who have attacking players capable of finishing off their moves. Mikel Arteta will be demanding a little more composure in the final third, but he has to feel Arsenal can hurt a Burnley team that has conceded in every Premier League game this season and two or more goals in 3 of their 4 League games.

Add in the fact that Burnley have not won any of their last 12 at Turf Moor in the Premier League and have had one clean sheet in 14 home League games and Arsenal have to be full of belief.

However, Burnley have been pretty good going forward and they have a team that can be dangerous from set pieces. Better finishing may have seen them clear of Everton on Monday and also in both home games against Brighton and Leeds United this season, but in all of those fixtures Burnley have blown a lead.

Burnley are creating chances though, which will be encouraging for Sean Dyche and his team, and they have scored in 8 of their last 12 Premier League games at Turf Moor despite failing to win any of those. They will appreciate that Arsenal can be organised under Mikel Arteta, but also vulnerable from set pieces and that is where Burnley may find some joy.

The 1-1 scoreline can't be ruled out, but the early form of both of these teams suggest there will be at least one more goal produced with the attacking play Burnley and Arsenal have produced.

Only 1 of the last 10 between these clubs at Turf Moor have produced at least three goals shared out, but I am going against that trend this weekend. Both Burnley and Arsenal have shown they can be effective going forward with the chances created, while both have also conceded plenty of big opportunities.

An early goal could spark the game and there were plenty of opportunities for both clubs when they met in a 1-1 draw here last season. On another day, better composure would have led to at least one more goal when they last met and I think the two teams will combine for at least three goals in this one as they should both believe the three points are very much attainable against this opponent.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace PickThe strong end to last season earned Liverpool their spot in the Champions League and they have opened up with a 3-2 win over AC Milan.

The victory is a big one for Liverpool who have made a positive start to the Premier League campaign too. It looks like a potential title race that could involve up to four or five teams and that means Liverpool cannot afford to drop points at Anfield against an opponent they should be beating.

Crystal Palace would fit that bill, but Patrick Vieira has won his first game as manager of the club and would have enjoyed the 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. The game changed on a sending off for the visitors, but Crystal Palace took full advantage and they played really well in a 2-2 draw at West Ham United before the September international break too.

Those results will have to be respected, but Crystal Palace have lost their last 4 visits to Anfield and can only really hope that Liverpool are a little fatigued from their Champions League exploits during the week. It can have an impact on teams, but Liverpool have been able to rest some key players in the win over Milan and they have looked good at both ends of the field for much of this season.

Liverpool have won 8 in a row against Crystal Palace and they have kept clean sheets in the last 3 against them. The Crystal Palace defeat at Chelsea on the opening weekend suggests they are still a team in transition under a new manager and I do think Liverpool will control the tempo of this fixture.

Jurgen Klopp's team have kept clean sheets in 3 of their 4 Premier League games played this season and I do think they will earn another one here. Crystal Palace likely will pose a threat on the break and from set pieces, but the main focus may be trying to contain their hosts and I feel it will lead to a Liverpool victory in which they also keep a clean sheet.


Manchester City v Southampton PickThe overwhelming feeling for many is that Manchester City would struggle without buying a new striker, but Pep Guardiola's team are making a mockery of those predictions.

They may have lost 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but Manchester City have won all 4 games played since then and they have been particularly intimidating at their own Stadium.

Add in the 5-0 win over Everton on the final day of last season and Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home wins in a row. The last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium have all ended 5-0 in favour of Manchester City and during the week they secured a 6-3 victory over Leipzig in the Champions League.

That has to be a concern for winless Southampton, although they have played well in their last couple of Premier League games. However, they are a team that have largely struggled defensively over the last couple of seasons and Manchester City scored five goals in a home win over Southampton back in March too.

Ralph Hasenhuttl wants his Southampton team to play with a certain swagger, but it has left them open at the back and they have conceded at least twice in 7 away Premier League games in succession. Everton saw Southampton off comfortably on the opening weekend, and 5 of their last 12 away Premier League games have ended in defeats by three or more goals.

Against this Manchester City team in the form they are producing it feels like a big task for Southampton to be competitive. They will likely pose problems for the home team if Aymeric Laporte and John Stones are both absent, but Manchester City should dominate the attacking numbers again and I think they can be backed to produce a big win on the day.

In 2 of the last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium between these teams, Manchester City have scored at least five goals and on current form you would not be feeling that comfortable backing against them doing the same this weekend.


Norwich City v Watford PickSome of the Norwich City performances have to be encouraging for Daniel Farke and the fans, but there is still this sense of naivety about the team at this level. That was especially the case in the 5-0 loss at Manchester City, but Norwich City have played much better in both home Premier League games without reward.

The 0-3 loss to Liverpool and 1-2 defeat to Leicester City are games where any points would have been seen as a bonus, but Norwich City played well enough in both. They could have secured something from each of those fixtures, but defensively there is a massive vulnerability about them.

The manager will point to the very difficult opening four games Norwich City have had to play, but there will be no excuses if they haven't found a way to pick up significant points before the next international break. First up is this massive home game against Watford and Norwich City will be looking for revenge over their relegation rivals as well as hoping to snap a 14 game losing run in the top flight.

Norwich City have been creating chances and will feel they can hurt a Watford team who have lost 3 in a row since upsetting Aston Villa at Vicarage Road on the opening weekend. They have lost both away games and that means Watford have been beaten in their last 8 away Premier League games, but they also struggled for consistency on their travels in the Championship last season.

Watford have struggled in the final third in recent away games and they have lost 4 of their last 5 on their travels going back to last season. They have failed to score in any of those 4 defeats and Watford have created little in their defeats at Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur over the last month.

However, Xisco Munoz will know both of those teams are likely to finish much higher up the League table than Norwich City when all is said and done next May.

The Hornets hold the mental edge having completed the League double over Norwich City in each of the last two seasons. Last season they earned 1-0 wins over Norwich City at home and away and I do think the first goal is going to be massive in this one.

Watford have won 6 of their last 9 visits to Carrow Road, but I do think Norwich City have shown enough this season to try and snap their poor record against this opponent. A defeat is likely going to knock all confidence out of the Norwich City team and this feels like a massive game for both clubs, but I do think the two home performances are encouraging for The Canaries.

You can't underestimate Watford simply because of how they have matched up against Norwich City in recent seasons, but they are a team who have struggled to find their best on their travels. The lack of goals has to be a concern, but Watford can be tough to break down when they are at their best and that is where they will try and frustrate Norwich City here.

However, Norwich City have been creating plenty of chances in their two home games against top teams and they can produce a first win of the season here. The first goal is going to be massive and Norwich City are likely going to come out with an intense attitude that may see them break down a Watford team who are still getting to grips at this level too.


Aston Villa v Everton PickLast season both Aston Villa and Everton will have some regrets that they were not able to find the consistency down the stretch that may have seen them playing in Europe this season.

It might not be a bad thing for the clubs overall as they look to develop to challenge the big clubs in the Premier League, but the fans are desperate to see that development this season.

Aston Villa have not been as consistent as they would have liked, but Dean Smith may feel it is partly down to the injuries that his squad have been dealing with. This weekend they look to have their key players all available for the first time at the same time, while Aston Villa produced a big performance at Stamford Bridge last Saturday.

Replicating that level on a regular basis is not going to be easy, but Dean Smith will believe his team are capable more often than not. Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings give Aston Villa a real goal threat, while the returning Emiliano Martinez and Emiliano Buendia will be a boost for the squad.

Aston Villa have key players back, but Everton are going to have to make do without Dominic Calvert-Lewin again this weekend. Last Monday they beat Burnley 3-1 without their leading striker, but Everton struggled at times to play without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and I do think Aston Villa have the defenders that will feel they can contain the threat.

Rafael Benitez does have Everton playing with confidence and this is a team that have been creating chances, while largely looking pretty secure defensively. They have won at Brighton and deserved to win at Leeds United so a trip to Villa Park will not be intimidating, but both of those came with Calvert-Lewin leading the line and his absence will hurt their efforts.

They are also facing an Aston Villa team who have been strong at home, while getting the better of Everton last season. I think Rafael Benitez will improve Everton this time around, but Aston Villa have the threats in the final third to get the better of them in this live game and I think the home team are worthy of backing on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw.


Brighton v Leicester City PickPlaying in the Europa League on Thursday and having Premier League commitments on the weekend is a big challenge for the clubs who have to do that.

Leicester City should have plenty of experience having negotiated the Group Stage of the Europa League last season, but the early season form is perhaps more of a concern. They are still picking up points, but Leicester City have just struggled for the balance at both ends of the field and now they have to face a rested and confident Brighton team.

Graham Potter has never lost faith in his system and his style of play and Brighton are being rewarded early in this season. They were underachievers last season when you compare the results to the overall performances, but over the last month Brighton have been rewarded for their efforts.

The late goal at Brentford has already seen Brighton earn close to a quarter of the points they would have been targeting before the season began. Defensively there has been plenty to be excited about and they will feel that will give them the foundation to be successful, while Brighton have shown enough in the final third to believe they can hurt this Leicester City team.

Playing The Foxes days after the Europa League began is a bonus, but Leicester City have a good record here and I am anticipating a battle between two good football teams. Both managers will want to see their team get on the front foot, but it may be a day when one of the sides are unable to break down the other.

Brighton have not been as strong going forward as they were for much of last season, but defensively they have looked good. On the other side, Leicester City have struggled for consistent attacking threat and last season 2 of the 3 games between these teams ended with one failing to find the back of the net.

The last fixture here ended 1-2 to Leicester City, but the previous 4 between these clubs had seen one of the teams fail to score.

Since Brighton returned to the top flight, half of their 4 home games against Leicester City have ended with at least one of the teams failing to score. Considering the challenges both have had in the final third so far this season, I do think we could see at least one clean sheet produced on the day.


West Ham United v Manchester United PickBoth of these teams had contrasting fortunes away from home in European competition this week, but West Ham United and Manchester United have both made unbeaten starts to the Premier League campaign.

It is Manchester United who lead the way with 10 points on the board, but West Ham United have picked up 8 points of their own and they will be plenty confident of upsetting their visitors.

The Hammers won 0-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday and this is a team who have been creating chances and scoring plenty of goals all season. They were held to a goalless draw at Southampton last Saturday though and West Ham United will be without talisman Michail Antonio this week which should give Manchester United the edge.

Backing Manchester United at odds on is not that appealing though even if they have won 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games. The 2-1 defeat at Young Boys in the Champions League will have dented some of the confidence, but the likes of Raphael Varane and Mason Greenwood did not start that game.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka made a big mistake in the first half and the relatively early sending off was costly for Manchester United who had been leading 0-1 at that point. Poor decisions by the manager didn't help, but I can't ignore the fact that Manchester United would have likely avoided a defeat if not for that sending off.

They were fortunate to win at Wolves at the end of August with the home team creating the best chances on the day, but West Ham United might not pose the same threat without Michail Antonio. That might contribute to a low-scoring game when you think that Manchester United have scored more than one goal in only 5 of their last 14 away Premier League games and yet they are now unbeaten in 28 on their travels in the top flight.

4 of the last 5 between West Ham United and Manchester United have ended with fewer than three goals shared out, while 3 of the 5 fixtures these teams have competed in at the London Stadium have done the same.

The inexperience of the West Ham United squad having played in the Europa League on Thursday in Croatia and now having an early kick off on Sunday might also go against David Moyes' men. They are likely going to look to make life difficult for Manchester United, but the feeling is that the visitors will secure a narrow away win as they erase the memory of the poor defeat in the Champions League.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea PickBoth teams will be happy with the points on the board after the first four Premier League games of the season, but there is no doubt that Chelsea have been much more convincing than Tottenham Hotspur.

The latter had a tough Europa League game at Rennes on Thursday too and I do think Tottenham Hotspur and Nuno Espirito Santo have learned how tough this season could be over the last week. The 3-0 hammering at Crystal Palace would have really hurt and Tottenham Hotspur are struggling for the balance between attack and defence.

That is not the case for Chelsea who have looked strong at the back and comfortable playing against the other top teams in England. They have drawn at Liverpool and Chelsea have already made the relatively short trip to North East London to win this season.

Chelsea will potentially be facing a short-handed Tottenham Hotspur in this one too which gives them a further edge in this Premier League fixture, while winning back to back visits to Spurs will only encourage the squad further.

Spurs have beaten Manchester City here in the Premier League, but they were fortunate that day and I think they will need considerable luck to win this one. Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make his team hard to beat, but Chelsea have the quality to break them down and won here under Thomas Tuchel last season.

With Romelu Lukaku in the form he is in, I think Chelsea can do enough to win this final game of the Premier League weekend behind their own solid foundation at the back.

MY PICKS: Leeds United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves
Burnley-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Norwich City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Leicester City Both Teams to Score- NO
West Ham United-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5
I decided to use my Wild Card in GW4 with some of the early decisions and real life transfers looking like they were leaving my team a little short.

Let's also face facts- there was almost no way I would be putting together a Fantasy team without Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line and that meant having to make a few changes.

Like many others, Chelsea players are going to be high on the radar with a turn in their fixture list in the coming weeks, but I felt I would have enough to use my transfers through to GameWeek 7 which would be enough to bring in the players I want.

Romelu Lukaku has to be the main target and I have a couple of different paths towards bringing him into my squad, although my Wild Card in GW4 was used knowing I would get through GW5 without using another transfer.

The suspension of Michail Antonio has hurt, but not too badly and I am comfortable with the eleven I will be starting in this game and knowing my back up players are capable of coming up and filling up any gaps.


I know some out there will want to move Antonio on, even though he has some good looking games to come and is only out for this GameWeek- I've had him from GW1 so it makes no sense for me to remove him and bring him back, but if I was looking for a replacement, these are the players I would potentially target.

Richarlison- leading the line for Everton in the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and will also likely be on Penalties. The team have some decent games to come, especially Norwich City at home next week.

Raul Jimenez- Wolves are creating chances for fun and I do think it is a matter of time before the Mexican striker gets on a run.

Patrick Bamford- I am not as high on Bamford as some, mainly because Leeds United have not been completely at the races so far this season. Also has been talk about a potential knock so his minutes may be limited, although the fixtures are a positive and if he is going to get scoring, it may begin this week.

Personally I think keeping Michail Antonio makes the most sense and having another week of data to get behind, but I also would not be surprised if those three strikers all have an impact in GameWeek 5.


With the players I have in the squad, I feel playing five at the back may be the best approach, while I have decided to have Said Benrahma as my first sub and Moussa Sissoko as my second. My feeling is that my starting eleven will all play so the bench may not be a big factor, and my risks this week have to be the Norwich City starters with their fixture list looking much better than their first four games.

This is a key time for Norwich City in real life rather than Fantasy and the players have to start producing points if they are going to have a realistic go at avoiding the drop.

Hopefully Brandon Williams and Teemu Puuki can produce the points for my team.

I am quite content with the rest of my eleven and I will then have another week to think about any transfers I would like to make with the focus beginning to turn to GW7 and what I may like to do.

The Captain choice came down to Mohamed Salah at home against Crystal Palace or leaving it with Cristiano Ronaldo who will be leading the line for Manchester United at the London Stadium. I do think CR7 can make a difference for United at West Ham United, but Mo Salah looks the more appealing choice this week with a home game and with an 'easier' fixture on paper.

Crystal Palace have conceded five times in their two away Premier League games, while West Ham United have conceded three times in their two home games. Add in Crystal Palace's struggles against Liverpool in recent seasons and with a more expressive system being used and I do think they may struggle at Anfield.

There is always a concern about rotation, but Mo Salah did not have the full 90 minutes against AC Milan on Wednesday and I would be surprised if he is rested considering he will be having a week off between fixtures after this one. Cristiano Ronaldo is more than capable of matching his output this week, but Salah is a midfielder in the game and that extra point for a goal is worth the Captain armband with the fixtures to come.

These two players do look the stand out options in GW5- I will post my team on Twitter on Friday afternoon just after the deadline is locked in around 6:30pm.

Saturday, 17 October 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 17-19)

The international break is over and that means the return of the Premier League and Fantasy Football.

I will have a few words about GW5 once I put down a few thoughts about the fixtures to be played this weekend.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: Both clubs from Merseyside had made a very strong start to the Premier League season before the final set of games ahead of the October international break.

While Everton have kept their winning run going, Liverpool were being thumped 7-2 at Aston Villa in one of the more staggering results you will see for some time.

The lack of crowds have not helped some of the fixtures and that was the argument made to excuse the Liverpool performance, but it is not the first time since the resumption of play that the defensive levels have not been good enough. They earned a clean sheet at Chelsea, but that came against ten men for the entirety of the second half and even then Liverpool needed their hosts to miss a penalty.

They are giving up some big chances and I think the pressure only increases tenfold knowing Alisson is not between the sticks behind them.

Everton have not beaten Liverpool at Goodison Park since October 17th 2010, but ten years to the day later they look to have as good a chance as ever. They are playing with confidence and Carlo Ancelotti will have some key players back from injury, while Everton have been creating chances for fun in their games this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a striker in form and Everton will feel they can get at this Liverpool backline which has been surprisingly nervous at times throughout this season.

They might not have beaten them here, but Everton don't lose many games to Liverpool at Goodison Park which is underlined by the fact that 7 of the last 8 here have ended in draws. When they met here in June it was only some poor home finishing which prevented Everton taking the full three points and I think this current squad are playing considerably better than they were back then.

Everton look stronger all around and I would be surprised if they are beaten by Liverpool, despite the fact that the latter should be fuming and desperate to put things right after their embarrassing capitulation at Villa Park.

We should see a really strong Liverpool performance, but defensively they have more questions than answers at the moment and I think Everton are able to avoid defeat at the least.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This is the first ever PPV Football game being played in the Premier League and I am looking forward to seeing what kind of numbers the television companies pick up for these fixtures.

Personally I not only find it embarrassing that the Premier League has decided this is the best way to deal with the fact that fans are not allowed inside the Stadiums, but the actual cost is beyond a joke.

Neither the Chelsea or Southampton players will be worrying about that as they look to keep some momentum behind them following positive home wins in the final set of games before the international break.

Both clubs have been playing some strong attacking football, but Frank Lampard and Ralph Hasenhuttl will be more pleased with the clean sheets earned. Southampton in particular have looked much more solid at the back following the 2-5 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, although those games have been against Burnley and West Brom and this Chelsea team have a lot more attacking threat than those two clubs.

Frank Lampard has perhaps not been allowing his Chelsea team play as freely as they were at the end of last season, although I do think injuries have been partly to blame. There shouldn't be any excuses this weekend with the likes of Christian Pulisic back and possibly starting and I do think Chelsea will find spaces against this Southampton team who do like to get on the front foot themselves.

In recent seasons Chelsea have not had it easy against Southampton and I do think this will be a difficult test days before the Champions League begins. However, I also think Chelsea have been playing well at Stamford Bridge for some time and they have the pace and quality in the final third to eventually break down Southampton.

The visitors will cause problems, but I think their attacking intent will eventually be their downfall in this one.


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: This is a big game in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon and Mikel Arteta is going to be confident he can find the right system to get the better of Pep Guardiola for the second time in the space of a few months.

Arsenal have not really enjoyed playing Manchester City in recent years, but they did enough to beat them in the FA Cup Semi Final in July and there will be a confidence about the team. They have made a strong start to the 2020/21 season and Arsenal will believe their pace in the final third is going to give them every chance to expose a Manchester City defence which has not been watertight at all.

I do expect Manchester City to be better the longer Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte have to play with each other, but in the early part of the season there might be some teething problems. We saw some of those when Leeds United got forward against them, but Manchester City have also shown an attacking cutting edge that will give them a chance in this and any match they play.

Being without Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero has been difficult and both are edging closer to a return, but unlikely to be involved this weekend. It is important that both Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne are fit to play a part because this is going to be a difficult enough game and without them I don't think I would fancy Manchester City's chances at all.

However, if both Sterling and De Bruyne are available there is enough of an attacking push from Manchester City to be able to cause this Arsenal team some problems. The Gunners are far from the walkover they have been in recent seasons and they will challenge Manchester City, but I do think the home team will have the better of the opportunities over the ninety minutes.

Even in the games played so far this season, Arteta seems to be capable of getting results from fixtures where his team have not been at their best. Both West Ham United and Liverpool created some big chances against Arsenal and you have to feel if they are going to allow Manchester City to do the same that the home team will have a little too much in the locker for them.

Arsenal do find a way to hang around in matches which will make them dangerous, but Manchester City should be able to finish off the chances they are likely to create in this one. Even without their top two strikers, Manchester City have been scoring goals and I think they will find a way to edge past Arsenal with perhaps a late goal sealing the deal like Liverpool did when they met The Gunners last month.


Newcastle United v Manchester United Pick: Rumours have been flying over the last couple of weeks after Manchester United's hammering at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur- the majority of those are about the manager and whether he will be given much more time, but most fans are also furious about the poor recruitment strategy at Old Trafford which continues to blight the club.

More panicky decisions were made as the transfer deadline hit and Manchester United are now heading into a big month.

It doesn't help that some have been suggesting that Bruno Fernandes had a major falling out with team-mates and with the manager at half time of the defeat to Spurs.

All in all Manchester United will have plenty of eyes on them to see how they react to the devastating defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. The players have to show they have more pride playing for the shirt than they did two weeks ago, but the challenge is finding the right system to deal without Anthony Martial and Edinson Cavani.

Manchester United will also be travelling to St James' Park this weekend where they have a poor recent record having won 1 of their last 4 visits. Last season they were beaten 1-0 here and Newcastle United have made a positive start to the season which will make them feel pretty good about their chances of earning an upset.

Steve Bruce will be looking to set his team up to be hard to beat and he could have a number of first team defenders back for this fixture having entered the international break with a lot of injuries to deal with. Restricting space and trying to hit Manchester United on the counter attack will be the game plan for the home team and it is a plan that Brighton almost executed perfectly in the last away Premier League game played by the visitors.

Manchester United have won 7 away games in all competitions in succession and they have been scoring goals for fun in those fixtures. However being without Martial is a blow to their chances here and I do think there is something not right at the club at the moment which makes them vulnerable.

The manager could find himself under huge pressure on Saturday evening if Manchester United were to lose again, but either way it does feel like a very difficult game for the visitors to win easily. Big games will come thick and fast for Manchester United after this one, but that puts pressure on them to earn a result in this fixtures to build some momentum towards bigger tests.

It just feels like a tough ask at a ground on which Manchester United have experienced some hardship in recent times. Add in the dent in confidence the players suffered, the missing strikers and Newcastle United's own decent start to the season and this feels like a very short price for Manchester United to get back to winning ways.


Sheffield United v Fulham Pick: Two teams who could not have asked for more disappointing opening month of the Premier League season meet on Sunday in what is a very important game for both Sheffield United and Fulham.

Second season syndrome has been a problem for many clubs in the top flight over the last thirty years, but Chris Wilder will be most concerned that his Sheffield United team have lost 7 Premier League games in a row. That includes 3 losses from the end of last season which suggests the Sheffield United slump is more prolonged than merely the players being worked out in their second season at this level.

A lack of goals is an issue, but Sheffield United have been creating chances. At some point I do think they will be better in front of goal, but the bigger issue may be the fact that The Blades have lost some of their toughness defensively which means they will need a lot more goals to get anywhere near the kind of level produced last season.

Injuries have hurt Sheffield United as has the decision of Dean Henderson to return to Manchester United, but Wilder will know this fixture represents a good chance to get the first points on the board.

Scott Parker did really well in helping Fulham return to the top flight, but his team have struggled on their return to the Premier League. Defensively they have been a mess and new signings have been made to try and improve on that side of their game, while Fulham are also a team who have struggled to score enough goals with none being managed in their last 3 games in all competitions.

The feeling is that Sheffield United have been more productive going forward which could be the key to the outcome of this one. It won't be easy considering the recent form which will have dented the confidence of the players, but Fulham are not exactly firing on all cylinders themselves and I do think The Blades have the cutting edge to eventually begin to take the chances created.

I am not anticipating the highest scoring game of the weekend, but Sheffield United can be the one to earn their first victory of the 2020/21 season.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: Most derby games in England are between clubs that don't have the same kind of distance between them that Crystal Palace and Brighton do, but that has not lessened the intensity between these clubs.

Both teams are likely going to be battling to avoid relegation this season and these games could have extra meaning when it comes to May and the final breakdown of the League table. That won't be lost on the managers and I do think Roy Hodgson and Graham Potter will believe they can still motivate the players who will miss the presence of the fans in fixtures like this one.

On the face of things you would think this is the kind of fixture that would produce a low-scoring, tight, competitive affair. However goals have not been a massive problem when these teams have faced each other and the early form of both Crystal Palace and Brighton suggests we should see chances in this one too.

Crystal Palace have scored in both home games played this season and they have been creating decent chances in some of the fixtures played. They will be aided by the fact they are facing a Brighton team who have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions, albeit against clubs in the 'Big Six' part of the Division.

On the other side, Brighton have actually looked threatening going forward and have scored in every League game played this season and scored at least twice in their last 3 in the Premier League. Before the defeat at Everton they had been unbeaten in 9 away games in all competitions and Brighton have scored at least twice in 4 away games in succession.

Before Crystal Palace's 0-1 win at the Amex Stadium, both teams had hit the net against the other in 5 successive games in all competitions. The injuries in the home team have yet to clear up which could make them vulnerable to an attack minded Brighton team, but Crystal Palace do have some talented forwards that will believe they can expose the soft underbelly of The Seagulls.

Chances are being created in the games these teams have played so far this season and the last 3 at Selhurst Park since Brighton have returned to the top flight have ended with both teams scoring. I think the chances we saw in their two Premier League fixtures last season will be replicated in this one and both teams should find a way to hit the back of the net.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: This London derby could be a really good one if the early season form of Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United is anything to go by.

Both are coming off very impressive away Premier League wins against teams who finished in the top five last season and I think both Jose Mourinho and David Moyes would have preferred to have avoided a two week break between games.

Tottenham Hotspur have had a tough September with the amount of games they had to negotiate, but Mourinho has helped the squad manage that and the 1-6 win at Manchester United will have given the players a huge boost in confidence. They have earned passage to the Europa League Group Stage and progressed to the League Cup Quarter Final, while Tottenham Hotspur could be boosted by the return of Gareth Bale who is in line for his second debut.

The home form will need improving if Tottenham Hotspur are to return to the Champions League at the end of the campaign, but they were very unfortunate not to have earned more points from their games against Everton and Newcastle United. The latter in particular was a day in which Spurs missed a host of chances before a controversial Penalty cost them three points at the very end of the game.

Now they have to make sure they don't underestimate a West Ham United team who battered Wolves and Leicester City in back to back Premier League games. Those were not undeserved results or The Hammers being more clinical than their opponents, but West Ham United created huge opportunities and have confident players who have taken those chances when they have come up.

Even in the 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, West Ham United dominated large portions of the second half and only slightly better finishing would have perhaps earned them the full three points let alone the just the one from a draw.

David Moyes can sometimes be a little cautious, but the style West Ham United have used in their last 3 Premier League games against top eight opponents suggests he will keep faith in what he has his players doing. The squad is as fit as they have been in months and everyone seems to know their role which means West Ham United can more than just contribute to this fixture.

Both teams scoring would not be a huge surprise, and it would be disappointing if this was not one of the better games to watch this weekend. I anticipate a game where both Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United will go on the attack and look to score goals and it should be one of the higher-scoring games of the weekend.


Leicester City v Aston Villa Pick: There have been some staggering results in the Premier League through the first month of the 2020/21 season and these two clubs have been involved in a number of them.

Leicester City stunned Manchester City 2-5 at the Etihad Stadium before being battered 0-3 at home by West Ham United before the international break. On the other side Aston Villa hammered Liverpool 7-2 at Villa Park two weeks ago and are one of two teams that have won every Premier League game they have played this season.

That start comes weeks after Aston Villa needed to escape the drop on the last day of the 2019/20 season, while Leicester City's defeat to West Ham United came after they had won their opening 3 Premier League games.

With that in mind it can be difficult to know what to expect from teams on a week to week basis, but I do think Leicester City will bounce back and perform much better this Sunday.

They will need to be a lot better because Aston Villa are playing with confidence and have been a much stronger team this side of the resumption of English Football in June. Defensively there have been improvements, but Aston Villa have also looked better in the final third and I do think that makes them dangerous here.

Leicester City did hammer Aston Villa twice in the League last season, but Aston Villa did earn a 1-1 draw here in the League Cup. As I have said, Aston Villa are much improved since these teams last met in March and Leicester City have certainly not been playing like a top eight club over the last five months.

The Foxes have been better at home which deserves some respect, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 here. Leicester City have conceded at least twice in 4 home games in a row and Aston Villa's attacking revival should mean they are able to keep this one competitive.


West Brom v Burnley Pick: I could really pick a number of different ways this fixture could be played out, but that makes it a tough one for Fantasy purposes.

Neither team has looked great at the back, but both have struggled in the final third too.

With that in mind I think it is likely we could see a clean sheet in this fixture for at least one of the teams, but I am not sure which is going to earn it. The upcoming games for both teams suggests their Fantasy assets are not worth much at the moment either and this one fixture I won't be tuning in to this weekend, especially not at the PPV prices they are selling it at.


Leeds United v Wolves Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes on Monday Night Football when Leeds United and Wolves meet in what looks like a potentially good looking game on paper.

Both teams have some strong attacking talents and the football they are able to play means those players are allowed to express themselves.

At the same time there have been one or two vulnerabilities at the back which have been exposed by opponents and that should mean these teams combine for an entertaining game at Elland Road.

Neither manager is one that is going to be happy to settle for a result, although it might be a better point for Wolves than Leeds United on current form.

It is hard to really get a good read on how the teams are playing because of some of the inconsistencies that have been on display. There are times when Leeds United and Wolves have looked really good, but there have also been stretches within games when they have looked vulnerable and perhaps been pushed to the brink.

Out of the two teams it is the losses that Wolves have suffered and the manner of them which is a concern, but I would be surprised if they are not able to play their part here. The Marcelo Bielsa system means they are going to be exposed to the Wolves counter attack, but should also mean Leeds United are able to test a team that have conceded 7 times to Manchester City and West Ham United combined.

The layers don't really seem to agree with me in that there is a real chance of seeing some goals in this one, but I do think both teams will find a way to hit the back of the net. Neither manager is one to really take the foot off the accelerator and that should keep the fixture open and produce at least three goals on the night.

MY PICKS: Everton + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United + 1 Asian Handicap
Sheffield United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Crystal Palace-Brighton Both Teams to Score
Tottenham Hotspur-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa + 0.75 Asian Handicap
West Brom-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Leeds United-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5
It is simple...

WILDCARD!!

I've had a miserable time in the first four GameWeeks and the final straw was watching my squad lose considerable value all over the place. The XG numbers have been decent enough, but I have not gotten enough positive returns from the Picks I made and I have to accept that I was wrong and now is the time to make changes.

I did mention that I would be looking to activate the Wildcard after the transfer deadline closed and that is where I am at.

Some players won't be moved, others will be restored in the weeks ahead, but I am going to make a number of changes to the squad to give it a better all around feel. Hopefully it will be the right decisions this time and I will reveal the full team when the deadline hits.

You can check that out on my Twitter page on Saturday morning.