NBA Playoffs- Second Round Game 1-4 Picks
Outside events meant not having the same time as I would have expected to put the NBA Picks on the pages, but that does not mean that the Playoffs have been ignored.
Watching the New York Knicks power past the Atlanta Hawks as they did in the First Round has certainly raised hopes that the team can finally win the Eastern Conference again, while the upset produced by the Philadelphia 76ers over the Boston Celtics cleared the path to the Finals for a second season in a row.
It might have been even better for the Knicks if both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons had dropped Game 7s in the First Round, but those teams are alive and the winner will be a threat.
Over in the West, it feels like we are still on course to see the Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Series that everyone would have been hoping to be set for the Western Conference Finals.
Out of the two teams, the Spurs have more to do with the Series against the Minnesota Timberwolves potentially problematic as the Denver Nuggets found out in the First Round.
It should mean an interesting week to open these Second Round Series, while a new thread will be created for any Series that moves into Game 5 and beyond.
Friday 8th May
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: The run of blowout wins may have come to a conclusion in Game 2 of this Second Round Series, but the New York Knicks may take more out of the battling win than some of the previous victories. Being able to show you can dig in and win ugly when needed is never a negative achievement and instead will bolster the Knicks to push through and come out of the other side when games are tight and competitive.
Ultimately it has always been said that a blowout counts the same as a single point win and the New York Knicks have to be travelling to the Philadelphia 76ers feeling really good about being in a 2-0 lead.
It is Playoff time though and rarely do things happen smoothly at this stage of the season.
One of the key figures powering this Playoff run is OG Anunoby, but he suffered an injury late in Game 2 that leaves his participation as questionable when Game 3 is played on Friday. The Knicks may believe they can find a way to get through this Second Round Series without Anunoby and then give him ample time to prepare for the Eastern Conference Finals, but that looks like it will be a game time decision.
Replacing his production is not going to be easy, especially with the match up problem it has posed for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Miles McBride could be the beneficiary of any absence as far as Anunoby is concerned, and it is his Defensive talents that could help in continuing to slow down Tyrese Maxey. Josh Hart is another doubt for the New York Knicks as they look to return home with at least an opportunity to close the Series out back at Madison Square Garden next week.
Injuries have always been making a big impact in the post-season of US Sports and the Philadelphia 76ers will have little sympathy for the New York issues considering they played Game 2 without Joel Embiid. The status of their best player remains questionable for Game 3 with little time between these opening games in the Second Round Series and being without Embiid will put pressure on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George.
There was a feeling that the 76ers missed an opportunity to steal home court from the Knicks in Game 2 as they fell away Offensively in the Fourth Quarter of a tight game.
It remains one of the issues that the 76ers may struggle to overcome with too much reliance on the two players when Joel Embiid is on the sidelines- VJ Edgecombe has shown he can step up and should benefit from playing at home, but this is an Arena that could have plenty of noise for the New York Knicks, despite urges from the Philadelphia players to supporters to not sell their tickets to road fans.
The uncertainty around some of the key names does make it a tougher game to call, but the 'under' may be the play here.
The total was not surpassed in Game 2 as both teams showed off some of the Defensive talents and the potential absences of the likes of Anunoby and Embiid will have an impact on the Offensive schemes.
When one team is leading 2-0 in the Second Round of recent Playoffs, the under has been dominating with a 15-4 return from the last nineteen times we have seen this spot come up.
The layers are not finding it easy to separate the teams on the spread, which is a surprise considering how much stronger the New York Knicks have looked. The assumption is that the spread is designed with a feeling that the OG Anunoby will sit out and so the under is the play in Game 3 with a line that is similar to the one that failed to be overcome in Game 2.
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: There will not have been too many surprised faces to see the San Antonio Spurs bounce back from a disappointing Game 1 loss in the manner they did in Game 2 of this Second Round Series.
However, the Minnesota Timberwolves will be pretty confident returning home knowing they earned a split from the opening two games and have taken home court away from the higher Seeded team.
They showed plenty of grit and character to come out of the First Round Series against the Denver Nuggets, despite injuries racking up, and Anthony Edwards will likely be grateful that he did not have to play extended minutes in Game 2. At the moment the Timberwolves are using Edwards from the bench as he continues to manage a knee injury that many felt would keep him out of action for two weeks instead of going through the rigours of Playoff Basketball, but Anthony Edwards continues to show he is a leader for the team.
It was his impact from the bench that helped the Timberwolves win Game 1 and they may be ready to make more use of Anthony Edwards in this one.
The Timberwolves will be aware that they won two of the three regular season meetings with the San Antonio Spurs and that they are unbeaten in seven at home against this rival.
Jaden McDaniels will be needed to steer clear of the foul trouble that limited his time on the court in Game 2, but there is a togetherness about this Minnesota Timberwolves team that continues to see them outperform expectations set for them.
At the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the San Antonio Spurs are favourites in the Series and they have been asked to lay plenty of points in this Game 3 on the road.
There was a nice balance to the way they played in Game 2 on both sides of the court and the Spurs will feel that the momentum is now behind them.
However, this is a Timberwolves team that have turned things around when factors are working against them in the First Round and an experienced group can give the Spurs as good as they get in Game 3.
Road favourites of at least 4.5 points have not had the most productive time covering in the Second Round of the NBA Playoffs in recent years, while those teams who have scored at least 127 points in a single game have covered in only 33% of the time they next go out on court.
Minnesota have won all three home Playoff Games this season and the record against the San Antonio Spurs will give them and the fans genuine belief they can pull the upset.
With key players likely feeling refreshed returning home at 1-1 in the Series, the Timberwolves may have another upset in them.
Saturday 9th May
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Both of these teams made heavier weather than expected of First Round Series and had to come through a Game 7 at home to finally earn the Seeded position into the Second Round.
Out of the two, the Detroit Pistons came closest to exiting the NBA Playoffs when trailing by over 20 points in Game 6 against the Orlando Magic and already down 3-2 in the Series- in fact they had been 3-1 behind after four games, but the Pistons rallied and eventually came through with three straight wins and that momentum has guided them into a 2-0 lead in this Second Round Series.
Cade Cunningham continues to play at a high level, but it has been important that the Pistons have found a way to get some of the role players performing next to the superstar name on the roster. This has been the key to the Pistons finishing with the top Seed in the Eastern Conference, but Cunningham has made it clear that his team cannot afford to look too far ahead and have to use the First Round Series as a tale of caution about how quickly things can unravel in the post-season.
However, the Detroit Pistons have to be pretty confident with how they have been playing to make it five Playoff victories in a row and they have put the Cleveland Cavaliers in a tough spot.
There is plenty of experience in the Cleveland rotation though and the Cavaliers will also be aware that they have lost all five road games played in the post-season so far... The reason they are still playing competitive basketball is because they won all four home games against the Toronto Raptors and they do have a chance to get back to 2-2 in this Series with home advantage on their side over the next three days.
Beating the Raptors at home and doing the same against the Detroit Pistons is going to be a different test, but Cleveland have to remain confident knowing how they have played here. Donovan Mitchell looks to have come alive again, but the key for the Cavaliers is finding a way to get others out supporting him, namely James Harden who has long be criticised for coming up short in the biggest Playoff moments.
The pressure is going to be building on the Cavaliers knowing how they have performed on the road and even earning one win in this Series looks like it could be tough.
Dropping one of the next two games and having to win twice on the road may be beyond them and that can make it difficult for any team.
The fact here is that Cleveland have not matched up well with the Detroit Pistons this season and have lost four of the last five between the teams since blowing out the Pistons in the first meeting back in October. The Cavaliers lineup feels much different now and they are likely going to be pushed all the way in this Game 3, even though Cleveland should be respected for the comfortable margins of wins they have produced at home in the First Round.
Again, that was against Toronto and not the top Seed in the Eastern Conference and so taking the points with the road team here looks to be the play.
Home favourites of less than 8.5 points have been very good to back in the NBA Playoffs Second Round, which gives pause for thought, but the Cavaliers will need to come out with strong intensity if they are going to blow past the Pistons.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: There are some suggestions that the Los Angeles Lakers will have Luka Doncic back for Game 3 of this Second Round Series, but the team are only talking about being given a fair shake from the officials.
Frustrations boiled over on the court, after the game and then in the press conference with suggestions that the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting away with a lot of fouls on the Defensive side of the court. There has also been a long criticism of some of the 'flopping' that seems to accompany a few of the Thunder players when anyone whistles by them and the Lakers are hoping that things will change.
There will be some pressure on the officials when the Series shifts to the City of Angels for two games- the home fans are not going to want to see LeBron James 'clobbered' and only getting to the foul line five times, while they will also be extremely loud whenever a Thunder play hits the floor.
Perhaps that will create a bias in some of the calls made, but the Lakers know that it is going to be extremely challenging to get back into this Series even if Doncic is able to give them a lift.
He is not expected to be at 100% and the likes of LeBron James and Austin Reaves are trying to contribute as much as possible, but this Oklahoma City team have just found the right moments to put a run together and effectively blitz through the first two games.
They swept the Phoenix Suns in the First Round and that will have given the Thunder confidence, while they would love to earn some rest before the Western Conference Finals by ending this Series as soon as possible. There is a depth in the Thunder rotation, which showed up again in the Game 2 win, and Oklahoma City look like they are going to have a bit too much for the Lakers.
You can almost guarantee the Lakers will come out with huge energy and will be desperate to get back into the Series by taking command of Game 3 as quickly as possible, but youth and energy is on the side of the defending Champions.
Big road favourites have not been very successful in the Second Round of recent NBA Playoffs, but the Thunder have won all six meetings against the Los Angeles Lakers this season and all by at least 9 points.
Twelve months ago, teams were able to give Oklahoma City some real tests, but this Lakers team need the officials to play ball if that is going to happen in this Series.
They have not been completely outplayed, but the Lakers have struggled to slow the momentum when the Oklahoma City Thunder have been able to get on a roll and that could be the case again on Saturday as the top Seed in the Western Conference moves to the brink of reaching the Conference Finals again.
Sunday 10th May
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: The NBA Playoff experiences of the past would have gotten the New York Knicks ready to weather an early storm from a desperate Philadelphia 76ers team.
They were put under pressure early with Joel Embiid back in the starting rotation for the home team, but there were plenty of Knicks fans in the building for Game 3 and they will have kept the motivation very high for the New York players.
After weathering the storm, the New York Knicks began to make use of the match up advantages they have had in the first three games of the Series- OG Anunoby sat out, but that did not stop the Knicks from largely doing what they wanted, while the underrated Defensive unit turned the screw on the 76ers 'Big Three'.
The bonus was winning when the second units entered the court and the New York Knicks have moved into a 3-0 lead and will be convinced they are not going to be the first team in NBA history to lose in the Playoffs from that position.
Completing the Series win on Sunday would be a benefit for the Knicks in being able to give key players plenty of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals are set to begin.
Once again there has to be some expectations that the 76ers are going to throw everything at the Knicks in their bid to avoid the sweep in front of the home fans. Teams that have been behind in the Second Round of the Playoffs when Game 4 comes around have had successes against the spread, but Philadelphia have to find a way to combat what has been relatively comfortable approaches used by the Knicks.
It may be asking too much for a group of players that looked pretty devastated after the Game 3 defeat, while teams that have won that outing have backed it up very well in Game 4 in recent Second Round Series.
This is a close out spot and in recent seasons, teams have been better at doing that on the road with some authority than they have been at home and the New York Knicks may be able to do that on Sunday.
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: The slow start in the First Quarter of Game 3 will have bothered the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they gave San Antonio Spurs a real challenge before coming up short.
Home court once again belongs to the San Antonio Spurs, but there is a real pressure on the home team to bounce back and make sure they return to Texas at 2-2 rather than being on the brink of elimination.
So much went right for the Timberwolves in Game 3, but they struggled to create open looks against Victor Wembanyama and that resulted in a poor conversion rate, despite having a lot more efforts from the field compared with the road team.
Anthony Edwards was back in a starting role and he looked about as healthy as could be hoped, but the Coaching staff have to find a way to turn the momentum back towards the Timberwolves.
You have to expect changes to the starting rotation and the Timberwolves must come quicker and with more intensity right from the outset and see if they can put some pressure back on the San Antonio Spurs.
Much like the New York Knicks, the Spurs will be looking to back up a Game 3 win, but this is going to be a tough ask with the Minnesota Timberwolves yet to lose belief in their own ability.
Picking a side looks like it is going to be tough, but there has been enough effort on the Offensive boards to believe there will be second chance opportunities here and that will put the Defensive players under some pressure.
A few more Free Throws for the home team could also help and putting these factors together, this looks like a third game in a row where the total line can be surpassed.
The under has been a big player in the Second Round of recent NBA Playoffs, but those have usually been in cases with a larger total than the one set for Game 4 of this Western Conference Series. Both teams have shown they can get something positive going Offensively and the lack of rest between games at this stage of the season means the Defensive players are being tested and that may give those with an Offensive mindset an opportunity to take over.
MY PICKS: 08/05 Philadelphia 76ers-New York Knicks Under 214 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
09/05 Detroit Pistons + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/05 New York Knicks - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Second Round Update: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)