Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 16th March)

The tournament has proven to be the first of the 2025 season that will finish with a significant dip, but it was never going to be an eleven months where only ticking in a positive direction was going to be the outcome.

There is one selection from the WTA Final at Indian Wells before thoughts will turn to Miami and the opportunity to bounce back, and Picks from that Masters event will begin on Tuesday or Wednesday. The second of the hard court events played this month will round out March and then everyone will begin preparation for the French Open at the end of May with European clay court tournaments helping the players every step of the way.

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: If you think the Australian Open Final defeat did not hurt Aryna Sabalenka after winning that title twice in a row, her Semi Final performance will have made no doubt about how much she thinks about Melbourne 2025.

That defeat came at the hands of Madison Keys, but Aryna Sabalenka crushed the American for the loss of a single game in the Semi Final and admitted afterwards how much the match meant to her.

It is only part of a run of five strong wins and Aryna Sabalenka continues to show she is the player to beat on the hard courts.

Taking up the challenge is 17 year old Mirra Andreeva who has to be given all credit for beating Iga Swiatek in the Semi Final, despite having a tough second set. Any time a player beats someone as good as Iga Swiatek, they are going to be feeling good about their tennis, but Mirra Andreeva is becoming accustomed to beating the biggest names on the Tour having done the same on her way to the Dubai title last month.

Mirra Andreeva has continued her fine serving here in Indian Wells and she is going to need all of that if she is going to beat the World Number 1.

She played the key points well behind that shot in her Semi Final win with five of six Break Points saved, but Andreeva will need to find a way to be a bit more productive on the return. In that Semi Final win over Iga Swiatek, Mirra Andreeva won 39% of return points played and she is facing a much bigger server with the title on the line in Indian Wells.

The World Number is always going to be a tough server to face, but Aryna Sabalenka is backing that up with aggressive returning and that may just give her the edge in the Indian Wells Final.

Last year Mirra Andreeva upset Aryna Sabalenka at the French Open, but it is the latter who has won both matches played in 2025 on the hard courts, including a crushing win at the Australian Open.

In those two hard court matches this season, Aryna Sabalenka's serve has been strong enough to just contain Mirra Andreeva and allowed the World Number 1 to play with attacking intent on the return. This has led to a couple of pretty straight-forward victories and the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka can win and cover in this Final on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-8, - 3.93 Units (13 Units Staked, - 30.23% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Nick Ball vs TJ Doheny (Saturday 15th March)

Over the last couple of weeks, news broke through that Dana White would be leading TKO into the world of Boxing and they were going to be partnered by power-broker Turki Alalshikh.

While the promoters that had been working with the Saudi businessman were not openly speaking with any kind of concern, and the Boxing organisations were doing the same, most fans of the sport could have seen something like this developing from a mile away.

We have already seen with the LIV and PGA split in the world of Golf that a power grab of a sport is something that the Saudi authorities are keen on doing, no matter what anyone else thinks. They might be willing to share for a while, but ultimately they want to run things their own way and the likes of Eddie Hearn, Oscar De La Hoya and Frank Warren mean little, even if they helped usher in this new era.

There is still some time before TKO can really make the plays they want to make, but all signs point to Canelo vs Terence Crawford being under their promotional banner and this is not the best of news for the others.

Turki Alalshikh has made his feelings known by talking about 'crushing' others and it may be the time when the promoters working with him look to try and see if they can begin to get back to organising fights between themselves.

Of course the problem is that Alalshikh and the Saudis have shown how much money can be made by working with them and not going back to the way Boxing was before and the next couple of years are going to be very interesting to see how this sport looks and is being operated.

It is not Riyadh Season organising the cards this weekend, but Queensberry are in the final couple of shows under their old broadcasting contract before becoming the latest to move to DAZN.

There is also a Matchroom card headlined by a fighter looking to get back towards World honours having had a setback in 2024.

Nick Ball vs TJ Doheny

After impressing on a couple of shows in Saudi Arabia, Nick Ball has to be thinking that a 'monster' fight with Naoya Inoue is set to be in his future.

However, it would be a mistake to focus a career on a Super Fight that may or may not ever happen and any defeat now could make it very difficult for Nick Ball to be in a position to welcome Inoue to the Featherweight Division.

He doesn't look like someone who will look too far ahead and the WBA World Champion looks like he is only focused on doing a job on TJ Doheny.

Four losses in six fights looked to be seeing TJ Doheny's career wind down, but he decided to head to Japan and rejuvenated his career by upsetting three home fighters in a row.

This actually gave Doheny the opportunity to get in the ring with Naoya Inoue and a back injury forced a withdrawal in the Seventh Round, although the momentum of the fight was firmly in the direction of the unbeaten pound for pound superstar.

Moving up in weight and having another World Title shot is a huge bonus for TJ Doheny, but this does feel like a fight that has been made to have Nick Ball try and 'beat' Inoue by finishing off the veteran a little more quickly.

In saying that, it won't be easy to do that against a grizzled veteran who will use all of his know-how to get through the Rounds and patience may be the key to the night.

TJ Doheny has offered a back injury as the reason he was Stopped for the first time in that bout with Inoue at Super-Bantamweight, and so you have to think he can at least stay out of danger for a while.

Ultimately Nick Ball has shown his power carries and he may begin to break down and wear down this opponent and the likelihood is he can secure a 'proper' Stoppage in the second half of this contest.

Another home hope is looking to move past a veteran and just show off his potential on the undercard in Liverpool when Andrew Cain takes on Charlie Edwards.

An injury was blamed for Cain's only defeat, but he has bounced back with three wins in a row and all before the Sixth Round.

The hope is that Charlie Edwards will offer more resistance, although his career stalled after the No Contest against Julio Cesar Martinez back in 2019.

Charlie Edwards did win the European Bantamweight Title in his last outing, but Andrew Cain looks a considerable step up from Thomas Essomba and the feeling is that Liverpudlian can break down Edwards and force a second half Stoppage of his own.

There are a number of fighters looking to earn a spark in their careers fighting in Orlando and the majority are pretty happy to do that.

One who is perhaps less than impressed is Edgar Berlanga who feels he should have been headlining, but who is in his final fight under the Matchroom promotional banner.

Eddie Hearn has made it clear that his priority is not for a fighter who is not extending with him, even after arranging the Canelo Alvarez fight, and that is fair enough.

Edgar Berlanga came in over weight, which is not a good look, but he should have far too much for his compatriot Jonathan Gonzalez-Ortiz.

The latter is unbeaten and earned a couple of Stoppage wins in 2024, but he had not fought for ten years before that and was down in the First Round in his last bout in June.

Fighting at this kind of level feels a step too far for Jonathan Gonzalez-Ortiz as long as Edgar Berlanga is showing any kind of focus.

It might not be the fight he wanted or expected, but it is an opportunity for Edgar Berlanga to impress and earn a second Stoppage in eight fights. There have been times when Berlanga feels like he is going through the motions and he is not nearly as good as he thinks he is, but Gonzalez-Ortiz is there to be beaten and beaten well and that is what the outcome should be.

MY PICKS: Nick Ball to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Andrew Cain to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Edgar Berlanga to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 9-29, - 18.61 Units (46 Units Staked, - 40.46% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th March)

The two WTA Semi Finals were scheduled for Friday, but they feature what many may feel are the current top four players in the world and neither match has been very easy to call.

Mirra Andreeva will be looking to really start making her mark against the top players by beating Iga Swiatek on the hard courts again, while Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys is a repeat of the Australian Open Final and with both playing well enough in Indian Wells to want to take a watching interest.

Saturday will feature the two ATP Semi Finals and selections can be read below.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Holger Rune: Conditions in Indian Wells can become very difficult and that may have contributed to Daniil Medvedev's mid-match slump in his eventual Quarter Final win over Arthur Fils. He was the deserved winner on the day, but Medvedev will also be happy to hear that the conditions at the tournament are set to be warmer and a lot less windy over the final couple of days.

That will also suit Holger Rune, who needed three sets for the second time in four matches to win his own Quarter Final.

An inconsistent opening to 2025 will have felt like a disappointment for Holger Rune who had a 6-5 record on the hard courts before entering Indian Wells. Four wins in a row will have given him confidence, especially when you consider how well Rune has played in those matches, and he will certainly feel he can offer plenty in this Semi Final against the World Number 6.

He will need to produce some quality tennis if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev, who has only needed to win three matches to earn his own spot in the Semi Final having been the beneficiary of a Third Round match that lasted just two games.

However, the level of tennis being produced by Daniil Medvedev has to be very encouraging, even after that dip against Arthur Fils in the Quarter Final, and the conditions should have eased to help the Russian with his serve and style of play.

Both players will be pretty happy with the returning numbers and will believe they can maintain those levels, but Daniil Medvedev may believe he is the one that has more to come behind the serve.

Holger Rune has been producing really well behind that shot at this tournament, but he has not been at his best on the serve in 2025, whereas Daniil Medvedev has not quite matched his overall season numbers. This is a factor that could easily swing back towards Medvedev within this match, especially having won the last two meetings against Holger Rune, including here in Indian Wells twelve months ago.

Both have slipped from the World Ranking mark they held going into the 2024 tournament, but Daniil Medvedev is still operating at a level where he will believe he can frank that victory with another at the same tournament.

In that Quarter Final match, it was Daniil Medvedev who showed off the stronger returning play and he had Holger Rune under the cosh in plenty of his service games. The two sets played were competitive thanks to Rune's own ability to get stuck into the return, but Daniil Medvedev was the right winner and has produced more so far this season to believe he edges past the Dane again.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Jack Draper: Some have accused Jack Draper of 'quitting' in matches against Carlos Alcaraz, but that will be put to the test when they meet in the Semi Final in Indian Wells.

The British player beat Carlos Alcaraz on the grass of Queen's Club last year, which is a huge win for Jack Draper considering Alcaraz is now a two time Wimbledon Champion. However, either side of that victory, Draper has been forced to pull out mid-match against Carlos Alcaraz both here in Indian Wells in 2023 and at the Australian Open earlier this year.

In both of those matches, Jack Draper was well on the way to defeat and it is those moments that many feel is something that can be used to beat him with.

No excuses will be made for the World Number 14 this week and the performances in winning four matches at the tournament will have given Jack Draper a lot of confidence. He has won all eight sets played and the strong lefty serve has allowed him to play with some freedom on the return, which has ultimately led to some dominant victories.

Three American players have been beaten so Jack Draper should be accustomed to his opponent earning the majority of the support from the stands, and he has to be given credit for the way he has played the big points.

Doing that again will be key for Jack Draper as he prepares to face the World Number 3 and a player who has opened 2025 in very strong form, even after the disappointing Quarter Final exit at the Australian Open.

Carlos Alcaraz has produced some special numbers, but is somehow exceeding those in Indian Wells having also won all four matches in straight sets.

The Quarter Final win was the toughest with the second set needing a tie-breaker, but five of the eight sets have been won with the loss of three or fewer games and two others had seen the opponent win just four games as Carlos Alcaraz has shown his comfort in playing through windy conditions.

Serving well has been huge for both Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper and both have won at least 70% of points played behind that shot, but it is Alcaraz who has shown the stronger returning ability.

That is not only through the tournament, but in general on the hard courts and Carlos Alcaraz' returning numbers are right in line with the way 2025 has opened up for him. On the other side of the court, Jack Draper is returning better here than he had been before Indian Wells and so it may be tougher for the lower Ranked player to keep finding that level, especially against some with the obvious qualities of the Spaniard across the net.

In their previous four pro meetings, Carlos Alcaraz has shown he can get his teeth into the Jack Draper serve and the expectation is of more of the same in this Semi Final.

Covering the handicap will be far from easy if Jack Draper is concentrating fully on his serving, but the feeling is that the scoreboard pressure will tell at key times and that should see Carlos Alcaraz through to another Masters Final with a solid victory under his belt.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-6, - 1.93 Units (11 Units Staked, - 17.55% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th March)

I guess I should not have irritated the Tennis Gods by complaining about the win-loss being at 0.500 for the week after the two selections on Wednesday both fell to a defeat.

They were a touch unfortunate- Coco Gauff's match with Belinda Bencic was incredibly tight and she had actually been winning more points overall just before the Swiss player went out to serve for the match.

And an injury issue meant Brandon Nakashima was not able to maintain his serving after the first set with Ben Shelton had ended in a tie-breaker before the latter was able to pull away easily enough.

We move forward though and it is Quarter Final day in Indian Wells with all eight matches across both the ATP and WTA tournaments scheduled to be played.

Friday will then be reserved for the Women's Semi Final matches before Saturday sees the last four ATP players head out onto the court. And the tournament will come to a conclusion on Sunday with both Finals set to be played on the same day before everyone turns their attention to the Miami Masters, which begins next week.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: A dominant win over Tommy Paul has just continued Daniil Medvedev's serene progress at Indian Wells, while also maintaining the strong form he has opened with in 2025.

The hard courts have always been the surface on which Daniil Medvedev has played his best tennis, but there is little doubt that this form dipped in 2024.

At 29 years old and with a lot of years on the Tour under the legs, there will have been some thinking that Daniil Medvedev was on the slide in his career, but the early form does offer encouragement. Winning a big title in either Indian Wells or Miami would just give Medvedev some momentum to take into the clay court season, which begins in April, and the build up to the French Open.

The Quarter Final sees Daniil Medvedev take on young, improving Arthur Fils.

The Frenchman is set to move into a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament, but Arthur Fils will only be focused on winning this match and earning a spot in the Semi Final. He has had to battle for the victory in the last couple of Rounds, with both going the distance, but that should just give Arthur Fils a boost in confidence as he looks to win the second Tour meeting with Daniil Medvedev.

The first was won comfortably by Daniil Medvedev, but that was at the end of 2023 and both players are different places now.

Both players will feel they can improve on the service numbers produced in the tournament, but it does look like a tournament in which Arthur Fils is returning better than would be expected. Maintaining that will be tough, especially if the pressure is put onto the 20 year old by the Daniil Medvedev return, and the World Number 6 may just have the edge in the match.

Covering these marks can be tough, especially if a server like Arthur Fils is at his very best, but neither has been dominant behind that shot in the tournament and Daniil Medvedev's superior returning can make the difference for him.

Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Winning matches and titles will always impress and create headlines, but the manner in which Mirra Andreeva is winning her matches is really going to impress all who watch her play. A bright future has been predicted for a player who is going to be turning 18 years old at the end of next month, and it is important to see Andreeva with a good team around her to guide her during her development.

A crushing win over Elena Rybakina can only boost the confidence of the young player and she is rightly set as the favourite for this Quarter Final considering the level that has been shown all season.

Mirra Andreeva has stepped that up even further here in Indian Wells, although the veteran Elina Svitolina is going to present a significant test.

It has been a solid season for Elina Svitolina, who has been competitive in the majority of matches played and who has openly spoken about the positive support she has been receiving at Indian Wells. That has not been impacted by the fact that she has beaten three American players to reach the Quarter Final, although Elina Svitolina has needed three sets in two of the three wins produced.

The pressure will be on Elina Svitolina to serve well and she if she can build up some scoreboard pressure on the younger player, but Mirra Andreeva's returning capabilities have long been spoken about as a big part of her tennis.

Getting more out of the serve is thus leading to the wins being strung together and Mirra Andreeva is certainly looking much more confident behind that opening shot. Her 2025 numbers have improved on 2024, which is not a surprise considering we are nowhere near where Mirra Andreeva is going to look like when at her peak, and those numbers have been impressive.

She has been particularly strong here in Indian Wells having faced a single Break Point across her last two wins, and Mirra Andreeva is playing with the kind of confidence that will be tough for anyone to shake.

Elina Svitolina will try and use all of her experience to just give her opponent something to think about, but Mirra Andreeva is playing really well and has been all season, and that consistency may produce a level that is too much for the World Number 23 to deal with.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Luidmila Samsonova: The World Number 1 has become accustomed to entering the back to back WTA 1000 events on the hard courts in March with a title under her belt, but Aryna Sabalenka is not doing that this year.

Some of the recent form had been disappointing following the Australian Open Final defeat to Madison Keys, but there is no doubting the quality and the talent of the Belarusian.

Her three wins in Indian Wells have been very strong and it will take a big effort to stop Aryna Sabalenka whenever she enters an event on the hard courts.

That challenge is taken up by Luidmila Samsonova, a player who has proven to be dangerous to Sabalenka when performing at her best. That is underlined by the fact that Samsonova has beaten Aryna Sabalenka twice on the hard courts and as recently as Montreal 2023, although last year the World Number 1 earned a crushing win on the hard courts of Cincinnati.

Early 2025 form had been very inconsistent from Luidmila Samsonova and she entered Indian Wells with a 6-6 record and average numbers.

However, three wins here will have boosted her confidence and any player that crushes Jasmine Paolini deserves a lot of respect.

Luidmila Samsonova is going to have to serve well- getting plenty of first serves in play will help her cause no end, but the second serve also needs to be effective enough and not allow an aggressive returner to get on top of the rallies in what should be a big hitting Quarter Final.

Anything less will make things difficult for Samsonova, who won just five games in that loss to Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati, especially with the way the top Seed has been serving so far this week. Covering won't be easy if the World Number 25 is serving at around 65% of first serves being made, but a dip below 60% will give Sabalenka an opportunity and she is playing well enough to make that count.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 3-5, - 2.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 31.50% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th March)

One winner, one loser, and that continues a relatively poor trend in Indian Wells, although it could be worse.

The poor weather delayed many of the matches, but the tournament has stayed on schedule and that means the remaining Fourth Round matches will be played on Wednesday as we move into the business end of the first of back to back Masters events.

Once again it will be two selections from the matches scheduled to be played and those can be read below.

Coco Gauff v Belinda Bencic: No one could have anticipated Belinda Bencic's return to the Tour to be as successful as it has been just several months after giving birth.

Even the former top ten Ranked player admitted that she had entered some events with little expectation, but Belinda Bencic played well in Melbourne at the Australian Open and has backed that up really well. Winning the WTA 500 event in Abu Dhabi will have provided another boost in confidence after the run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Belinda Bencis has been in fine form in Indian Wells.

Three wins have been secured here and the last two have been against top 20 Ranked opponents, including beating Doha Champion Amanda Anisimova in the Second Round.

Belinda Bencic has always been a decent server on the hard courts, but she is certainly playing with more aggression and belief in her return and that has been key to the performances and results produced.

Next up is another big test for the Swiss player when going up against Coco Gauff, who will have plenty of support from the stands.

The World Number 3 was beaten in the Australian Open Quarter Final, which was a huge disappointment, but followed up with opening defeats in both Doha and Dubai. That meant Coco Gauff entered the tournament in Indian Wells having lost three hard court matches in a row, and there is a vulnerability about her tennis despite winning twice in this WTA 1000 event.

Coco Gauff was better in the Third Round win over Maria Sakkari than in her opening victory here, but she will be tested by a confident Belinda Bencic.

They met at the Australian Open in January and Coco Gauff had to fight back from a set down to get the better of this opponent. Her serve is still an issue, especially the second serve, but Coco Gauff may feel she can get enough balls back into play to wear down Belinda Bencic, even if the latter is playing at a really good level.

Too many Double Faults are putting Coco Gauff under pressure, but the first serve could offer up some cheaper points and Belinda Bencic may just come up short against a top ten Ranked opponent for the fourth time in five matches played in 2025.

Brandon Nakashima-Ben Shelton over 23.5 games: Two American players will be looking for a strong serving day in order to book their place in the Quarter Final of the first ATP Masters played in 2025.

Brandon Nakashima has forced his way into the World Number 33 Ranking spot, which is his career best mark, and his confidence has to be in a good place after reaching the Semi Final in Acapulco and Quarter Final in Delray Beach. The hard courts are a surface on which Brandon Nakashima is very comfortable and his two wins in Indian Wells have come in dominant fashion.

There is room for improvement as far as the return of serve numbers go, but Brandon Nakashima has displayed quality serving and that has put the scoreboard pressure on opponents.

He will need to serve well when taking on compatriot Ben Shelton, who is the World Number 12, which is also his peak career Ranking.

Ben Shelton has certainly looked like a player that enjoys the big stage and that was backed up by reaching the Australian Open Semi Final. Early losses in hard court events in February will have been a disappointment, but Shelton has been in good form in Indian Wells and has won back to back matches for the first time since Melbourne.

Much like his opponent, Ben Shelton has been a very strong server and that has used that to try and build scoreboard pressure. His return still has room to be improved, again like Brandon Nakashima, and both players are likely going to be as successful as their serving can be on the day.

It is Ben Shelton who has won all three previous meetings between the players on the Tour and that includes a victory at the Australian Open. Ben Shelton has won all seven sets played against Brandon Nakashima, but it should also be noted that every set has seen both players win at least five games.

That is not surprising when you think Ben Shelton has won 71% of service points played and held 95% of those games played, while Brandon Nakashima has won 70% of service points played leading to holds in 88% of service games played.

The mental edge is with Ben Shelton having won the big points to secure the victories, but the players can combine to cover this total games line set. Both have served well enough to believe they can look after that aspect of their tennis and that should mean tie-breakers are in play, which can quickly put this Fourth Round match on the way to surpassing the total set.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Brandon Nakashima-Ben Shelton Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 3-3, - 0.52 Units (6 Units Staked, - 8.67% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 11th March)

The Indian Wells Masters rolls through to the Fourth Round on Tuesday and there are some top matches scheduled for the day.

The Tennis Picks have had a mixed start to the tournament with two winners and two losers, but this looks to be another day in which two selections are going to be made.

It is one each from the men's and women's draws and those two can be read below.

Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul: Over the last eighteen months, Tommy Paul has become a very solid player on the ATP Tour and a threat on all surfaces.

He is a steady, consistent performer and that has pushed Tommy Paul into World Number 11- you would think his strongest numbers would be on the hard courts, but Paul has been able to reach a similar level on the clay and grass courts over the last twelve months and two strong wins in Indian Wells will have eased any concerns about a lingering injury that forced a walkover in Acapulco.

Tommy Paul has earned his wins over players he would have expected to beat and neither opponent has been Ranked higher than World Number 77.

That will all change on Tuesday in the Fourth Round at Indian Wells when Tommy Paul is set to face Daniil Medvedev, the World Number 6 and a player that only needed to play two games in the Third Round and who should be well rested and ready to compete.

Daniil Medvedev did suffer an early exit at the Australian Open, but February was a stronger month for the Russian and he reached a Semi Final and two Quarter Finals and the confidence has to have increased.

Both players have been serving well and then backing that up with quality returning and there really isn't much between Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev.

However, there has been one key difference between Paul and Medvedev so far this season and that is the strength of opponent they have faced. Tommy Paul is 0-2 on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents in 2025, while Daniil Medvedev is 5-2 in the same situation, and there is much more room for improvement for the American.

He did end his losing run to Daniil Medvedev by beating him on the clay courts in Rome last year, but Tommy Paul suffered a loss when these two met here in Indian Wells in 2024. The return was the dominant shot for both players in that meeting on the hard courts at this Masters tournament, but Daniil Medvedev rallied from a poor start and he can get the better of the home hope again.

Backing the higher Ranked player to edge past Tommy Paul again looks the play when they meet in the Fourth Round.

Elena Rybakina v Mirra Andreeva: Off court issues continue to follow Elena Rybakina on the WTA Tour, but credit has to be given to the World Number 7 for maintaining her focus as much as she has been able to do.

Her former Coach/current boyfriend may not be allowed to enter the tournament as he continues to serve his suspension that has been set by the WTA Tour, while so many are offering their opinion about what Elena Rybakina should do to handle her current situation.

She is trying to focus on her tennis and Elena Rybakina has won fifteen of twenty hard court matches in 2025, although she has not been able to pick up a title despite the relative consistent level produced.

Two solid wins have been produced at this event, but the level of opponent picks up again when Mirra Andreeva looks to beat Elena Rybakina for a second tournament in a row.

The first was produced in the Dubai Semi Final at the end of February and Mirra Andreeva was able to win the biggest title of her career at a WTA 1000 event. That victory is part of an eight match winning run for the youngster and Mirra Andreeva has barely been pushed in that time.

It should be noted that the win over Elena Rybakina was the toughest that Andreeva has been able to secure, but she will be confident and looking to move back into the top ten of the World Rankings at the end of the first of back to back big hard court tournaments played in the United States.

Mirra Andreeva is a solid server, and one that is improving as she continues to grow, while her aggressive return will make her dangerous.

Being able to pick the Elena Rybakina serve will be a tough test, but Mirra Andreeva did well in Dubai, even if Rybakina created more Break Points on the day.

The higher Ranked player has been serving well in Indian Wells and if Elena Rybakina can maintain the level shown, she may have the qualities to turn the result from Dubai around and in her own direction. There really wasn't much between Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in that Semi Final and getting in a few more first serves may be all it takes for things to switch around.

Credit has to be given to Mirra Andreeva for pushing Elena Rybakina in both previous meetings, which have been split with one win each, but the underlying numbers have been slightly in the latter's favour both times. We may need another third set decider, as has been the case the last two times the players have met, but this time it is Rybakina who can come through with an important win.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 2-2, - 0.27 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 10th March)

This was the one day of the Indian Wells week where the thread was likely going to come out a little later than planned and the late research means just adding a couple of selections from the remaining Third Round matches.

It was a mixed opening to the Indian Wells selections, but it is a long week remaining at the tournament before the move to the Miami Masters and so the actual direction for the Tennis Picks have yet to be decided.

Jack Draper - 4.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: There is a real determination to manage the workload and ensure Jack Draper is able to get through the majority of this season without the injury issues that have plagued him in his young career.

Two tournaments have already been played and Jack Draper played well at the Australian Open before reaching the Final in Doha, but decided he would not participate in Dubai and instead focus on Indian Wells and Miami. He earned a very strong win over talented up and comer Joao Fonseca in the Second Round and Jack Draper has to be considered a strong favourite to win this match.

The British player has been a solid performer on the hard courts throughout his career and Draper is someone who serves well enough to keep opponents under some pressure.

He has not returned too badly this season, but Jack Draper has room for improvement when it comes to playing those key points on that side of the court. While Draper is winning a similar amount of return points played, the break percentage is someway below the mark set in 2024 and Jack Draper will want to earn a few more breaks of serve.

Next up is Jenson Brooksby who will have the home fans behind him, but who is still finding his feet on his return to the Tour after suspension.

Unsurprisingly it is taking a bit of time for the American to get back to a level he had been producing, but Jenson Brooksby beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. That will have given him a huge amount of confidence, but backing that up will be a challenge and Brooksby will be the first to admit that he is not serving as effectively as he would like.

Both previous meetings with Jack Draper offer little encouragement for Jenson Brooksby having been crushed both times back in 2022. The Draper serve was a huge weapon in both wins over Jenson Brooksby, but it was the fact that the British player was able to get on top of the Brooksby serve that ended up producing the one-sided scores.

Covering this mark is not going to be easy, but Jack Draper has played well enough in 2025 to believe he can get the better of this opponent in relatively straight-forward fashion again.

MY PICKS: Jack Draper - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 1-1, - 0.17 Units (2 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)