Paris Olympics Tennis Day 1 Picks 2024 (Saturday 27th July)

The Olympic Opening Ceremony in Paris in 2024 was... interesting... but the attention now turns to the athletes and what they are able to produce in the events scheduled.

There will be plenty of eyes on the athletics, gymnastics and swimming events, which really do earn their right to be in the spotlight at the Olympic Games, but fans of sports like basketball, boxing and tennis will certainly be tuning in for those events too.

Winning a Gold Medal may not be quite up there with winning a Grand Slam, but it is still a massive achievement and something tennis players speak about with real ambition. Paris will be no different with this being the second Olympic Games in the last four editions that will be played on the grounds where a Grand Slam is usually the focus.

It was Wimbledon in 2012, but the focus will be on Roland Garros in 2024 and the two French Open Champions are both favourites to win the Gold Medal. The men play a best of three format at the Olympic Games rather than best of five, which may offer up a chance for someone to upset Carlos Alcaraz as the tournament is played, but beating Iga Swiatek will be a massive challenge for every other player in the women's draw.

Doubles and Mixed Doubles are also played this week and we begin with a pretty loaded schedule on Saturday, which is hopefully much less wet than the day before.

The roof can be employed on the main show courts in Paris, but the last thing the organisers want is a week like the French Open had to cope with to open the second Slam of the season.

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: The Paris Olympic Games return to the famous courts of the French Open, the second time in four Olympic Games that the Tennis tournament will be played on the grounds of a Grand Slam tournament.

After another dominant showing on the red dirt which concluded with another French Open title, Iga Swiatek is going to be a very strong favourite to win the Gold Medal next week before the entire Tour shifts attention to the final Grand Slam of the season played in New York City beginning at the end of August.

The grass courts proved to be too much of a challenge for Swiatek, but the World Number 1 will be confident back on this surface and this looks a good First Round match for her to work her way into the tournament. Preparation for a return to the clay courts would have been outside of tournaments being played between Wimbledon and the Olympic Games, but Iga Swiatek is unlikely to need too much time to adjust.

She is facing an opponent who reached the Semi Final in a clay tournament played in Palermo in the build up to these Games, while Irina-Camelia Begu is a former World Number 22 and deserves respect. These days it has been much tougher work for Begu who is outside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but she did use her Protected Ranking to reach the Third Round at the French Open earlier this year.

The Romanian is very happy on the clay courts and her best results have been on the surface, but this is a massive step up and Irina-Camelia Begu has suffered some one-sided defeats to the likes of Danielle Collins and Karolina Muchova on the red dirt this season.

Iga Swiatek also crushed Begu when these players met at Wimbledon in 2021 and that is on the least favoured surface for the World Number 1. On the courts of Roland Garros, the Pole is expected to be that much happier and she may be able to crush this opponent and cover what is a very big handicap spread for a best of three set match.

However, it is a mark that Swiatek has regularly covered on the clay courts in her dominant time at the top and she can do the same here.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Two former World Number 1 Ranked players meet in the opening Round at the Olympic Games and both Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber are much happier when not playing on the clay courts.

They have more in common with both players returning to the Tour in 2024 after becoming mothers, but it has always felt like Osaka may still have more to offer than 36 year old Angelique Kerber.

It has played out that way with Kerber announcing that she plans on concluding a very successful tennis career at the conclusion of her participation at the Olympic Games. Grand Slam titles have been won, but it is a very tall task for Angelique Kerber to improve on the Silver Medal she earned at the 2016 Games.

That is especially difficult on a clay court and thoughts turning to retirement may leave the German vulnerable early in the tournament against an opponent that has the qualities to return to the top of the WTA Tour.

Unsurprisingly it has been an inconsistent year for Naomi Osaka, but returning to Roland Garros may fill her with some confidence having had Match Points to beat Iga Swiatek here a couple of months ago. Hard courts might be her favourite domain, but Osaka showed she has the tools to be a threat on the clay as long as she can avoid the errors that can be a big part of her game.

Angelique Kerber is leading the head to head by four wins to two, but many of those were played at a time when the German would have been a much higher Ranked player. The most recent match was won by Naomi Osaka after a slip in her World Ranking, but there is more about the Japanese representative and she may be able to push Kerber through the door of Singles retirement after a solid victory.

Pavel Kotov - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: You do have to wonder how much more Stan Wawrinka has to give a sport in which he has overachieved by winning three Grand Slam titles.

These days Wawrinka is outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings and you cannot imagine he will be wanting to fight through the Qualifiers to play in the top events on the Tour.

Consistency is always going to be difficult to maintain at the latter end of a career and Stan Wawrinka will have seen many of his peers either retire or very much in the same final furlong of their career.

The Swiss player will be looking for revenge over Pavel Kotov having been beaten by the latter on the clay courts at the French Open. This First Round match at the Olympic Games will be played on the same grounds and the expectation is that Kotov can frank the form, even though he has hardly been pulling up trees in his own recent performances.

Both players have struggled after Wimbledon with early defeats in clay court events played in Europe, but Kotov has the slightly stronger numbers. He was the better player in their match up in Paris earlier this season and the expectation is that the younger player will prevail again, even if Stan Wawrinka continues to be involved in some competitive defeats.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Pavel Kotov - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 27th)

It was shaping up to be a brutal Wednesday after a couple of matches swerved away from the winning line late on, but a couple of solid results from Umag avoided the complete disaster.

There remain some frustrations with some of the Picks that have come close to crossing the line with a win, but fallen short, although I do feel the selections are still being identified in a decent way.

Ultimately that feeling will only be the right one if the winners start to pile in and there is time to make sure this is a solid week for the selections.

The focus on Thursday will be solely on Hamburg where all three Tennis Picks are played.

Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Finally getting one over on Francisco Cerundolo will have pleased Yannick Hanfmann, even if it came via a third set retirement, and the home player should be able to back that up against Zhizhen Zhang.

You would be foolish to completely dismiss the chances of Zhizhen Zhang only because we have seen Yannick Hanfmann throw in a poor match just last week in Gstaad, but the higher Ranked player has been the superior clay courter this season.

Zhizhen Zhang was beaten by the same opponent who eventually got the better of Yannick Hanfmann last week in Gstaad, but he has been good enough to take a set from Casper Ruud at the French Open and had a strong run in Madrid where he beat top 20 Ranked players Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz in consecutive Rounds. However, the majority of his clay court tennis over the last twelve months has been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and that makes his overall numbers a little disappointing.

The serve has proven to be an effective weapon for Zhang and it will be important here, but he has not returned as well as Yannick Hanfmann who has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay this season. If you remove the nine clay court matches played against opponents inside the top 50, Hanfmann's break percentage improves slightly to 30% and he has served just as well as Zhizhen Zhang in the main.

The lower Ranked player has broken in 21% of return games played on this surface in 2023 and again it has to be noted that the majority of those have been against opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. In those six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhang's break percentage drops to 14% in games and this should mean Yannick Hanfmann has the edge in terms of chances to get to Break Point.

Numbers don't always tell the full story and Yannick Hanfmann has just produced a 'big' win which can be tough to back up. However, having the home support should help and produce a much better all around effort than the one he had in his loss last week, while the German has a 23-8 record on the clay when looking at results against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings.

He has won fourteen out of eighteen matches on the clay against players Ranked lower than him when they have played, and he would have covered this handicap margin in eleven of the thirteen best of three set matches Hanfmann has won.

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 games v Eva Lys: This has already been a strong week for Eva Lys who is pushing back towards her career high World Ranking after back to back wins in Hamburg.

In both matches she has beaten higher Ranked opponents and has opened up the draw by beating the Number 2 Seed in the draw, while the German home crowd will give Eva Lys another boost.

The run has been a surprise considering Lys had lost all four clay court matches played in 2023 prior to the start of the tournament in Hamburg. She has made use of her place in the main draw and Eva Lys has to be respected for not only winning her matches, but winning in the style she has been with dominant results.

You have to expect this to be a much sterner examination for the home player than she has had in the tournament so far when facing Arantxa Rus, although the World Number 60 has already had to spend over five hours on the court. Winning will help, but Rus would have preferred to have avoided having to win a deciding set in each of her two wins this week.

On paper this should be an 'easier' test, but Lys has some momentum behind her.

However, I have to like the fact that Arantxa Rus has a 30-5 record on the clay courts when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, and that record becomes 26-2 when only considering matches against opponents outside of the top 100. Only one loss has been against a player lower in the World Rankings than Rus when the match has been played and you have to believe her returning will be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final.

Eva Lys will feel her own returning has been effective enough to create Break Points considering how she has played this week. She has been able to step up her own personal level when facing players Ranked higher than herself on the clay courts in her career, but Eva Lys may just find Arantxa Rus a little too battle hardened in this one.

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 games v Noma Noha Akugue: There are a couple of home players that have made it through to the Hamburg Quarter Final and both have surprised by managing to do that.

Out of the two, Noma Noha Akugue has certainly had a tougher time than Eva Lys, although you have to respect the character shown in coming back from 6-0, 5-4 down to win the match in three tough sets. The two and a half hours spent on the court should not be an issue for the young lefty, but Noha Akugue would have invested a lot of emotional energy into her Second Round win over Storm Hunter.

It will see her move into a new career high World Ranking come Monday morning, but Noma Noha Akugue is going to have to beat a tough clay courter in the Quarter Final when going up against Martina Trevisan.

The Italian is another lefty and her two wins this week have been impressive in what has otherwise been a mixed year on the clay courts. Martina Trevisan had been able to look after serve well enough this week and that has seen her dominate her two matches, although it is a vulnerable shot and makes it a little harder to trust Trevisan to cover big handicaps.

However, Martina Trevisan has been able to beat players she is expected to beat with her three losses against players Ranked below her being against Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and in a retirement.

Breaks have to be expected in a match like this, but Martina Trevisan can put Noma Noha Akugue under pressure with her clay court nous and the German player could be a little flatter after a big win on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arantxa Rus - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 4.08 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.69% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 4 Picks 2021 (July 27th)

The schedule for the Olympic Games Tennis tournament means the entirety of the Women's Second Round and Third Rounds are going to be played in a single day with the Bronze and Gold Medal matches scheduled for Saturday.

The Men's Final is set for Sunday so the schedule for their tournament has seen the First Round and Second Round split over two days early in the week. All of the Third Round matches will be played on Wednesday and the big names are largely still in action in this event.

I've updated the Olympic Games stats below after another inconsistent day on Monday and I am looking for more consistency with the selections made on Tuesday as Day 4 gets going. There is rain forecasted in Tokyo so those of us in Europe may actually get to see some live Tennis outside of the early starts that have had to be made over the last few days.

The roof on the main court should see those matches go as scheduled, but the other matches may have a delayed start with the rain expected and it could mean late night tennis to keep the tournament on track for a finish later this weekend.

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: The heat in Tokyo has made it more important for players to not overexert themselves in the early part of the Olympic tournament if they are going to have the energy to Medal at the end of this week. An upset win for Kei Nishikori over Andrey Rublev came in straight sets and will give the home player something to build upon, while Marcos Giron needed three sets and a full hour more on the court to win his own First Round match.

Both will feel they deserve their spot in the Second Round though and the upset produced by Kei Nishikori means the draw has opened up somewhat. The big threat in this section continues to be Novak Djokovic though and his presence will have to be overcome for either of Kei Nishikori or Marcos Giron to get into a position to win a Medal, but that match is to come later in the week and it won't mean anything unless they can get through this tough match.

The earlier hard court numbers were not that impressive for either player, but both looked in much stronger from in the First Round at the Olympic Games. The Kei Nishikori win is clearly the more impressive of the two considering the opponent he was faced with, but much is going to depend on the serve if the Japanese player is going to work his way into a position to progress to the Third Round.

Over the course of the season, Kei Nishikori has been a little inconsistent with his serve and it has led to him only holding 74% of service games played. I am not entirely convinced that Marcos Giron is the kind of return player to exploit that, but the American will look to serve big and hope that can generate enough pressure to break down Nishikori coming in off a big win.

The serve was important for Marcos Giron in his First Round win and he has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts, although recent form has been more mixed. A return to the hard courts should benefit Giron going forward into the US hard court series of tournaments, although his return of serve is one that needs to be much improved if Marcos Giron is going to have any deep runs in this event and those in the lead up to the US Open.

After missing 2020, Kei Nishikori did have a slow start to 2021, but in recent weeks and months there has been an improvement in his level of performance. There are going to be a few key points that ends up determining the direction of this match, but I do think Kei Nishikori can build on the big win he earned in the First Round as he looks to put a show on in his home Olympic Games.

This is not going to be an easy spread to cover if Marcos Giron is anywhere near his best serving level, but I think Kei Nishikori can get into the return games and he should show he is the superior player in the longer rallies. I expect the Japanese player to earn a couple more breaks of serve over the course of the match and it should give him every chance of covering this mark.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There is a relatively early opportunity for Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge against Frances Tiafoe after losing to the American in the First Round at Wimbledon earlier this month. That defeat would have been a big disappointment to the Greek player, but playing on the grass courts are still a work in progress for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is a much more comfortable player on the clay and hard court portion of the Tour.

He may not have won a title on the hard courts in 2021, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did reach the Semi Final at the Australian Open and has moved through to the Quarter Final stage of every tournament he has played on this surface.

One of the main reasons for the improved results on the hard courts has been the success Stefanos Tsitsipas has had on the return of serve. We all know he possesses a big serve and can back that up very effectively, but Tsitsipas has improved his percentage of breaks of serve from around the 17-18% mark up to 25% in his twenty-two hard court matches played in 2021.

A tough First Round win over a veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas a boost in confidence and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in the three previous hard court matches they have competed in. The head to head in those matches shows that the Greek player has been the dominant return player and Frances Tiafoe is someone who is comfortable on the hard courts, but far from consistent enough to put together a string of strong results.

Frances Tiafoe can be dangerous with his natural athleticism making him a player that can put together a strong set even when playing some of the better players on the Tour. However, his overall numbers on the hard courts have been average at best over the last few seasons and he has only reached one Quarter Final on the surface in 2021.

Even before this season, the American has been an inconsistent performer on the hard courts and his head to head with Stefanos Tsitsipas is a concern despite the win at Wimbledon. It might give Frances Tiafoe more belief, but Tsitsipas is a different performer on the hard courts and I think he is going to have a little too much for the American in this Second Round match.

In their previous hard court matches, Frances Tiafoe has held around 72% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 94% mark and it might be the difference maker on the day. This is a big mark to cover without a doubt, but Stefanos Tsitsipas might have enough to get over the mark and perhaps even match the margin of win when the Greek player beat Tiafoe here in Tokyo in 2017.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: Two dominant wins to move through to the Third Round has underlined Naomi Osaka's favouritism to win the Gold Medal in her home Olympic Games on a surface in which she is the best WTA player in the world. You could be forgiven for forgetting that Naomi Osaka has not played since the First Round of the French Open, but a return to the hard courts and the chance to refresh mentally and physically has clearly come at a good time for the Japanese superstar.

She has barely been pushed so far in Tokyo, but I am sure Naomi Osaka will be the first to expect a much stronger challenge in the Third Round. Even then it is difficult to see anyone really troubling Naomi Osaka outside of a couple of names left in the draw, but the WTA Tour has long been fairly open with players capable of producing a big week at any time.

Naomi Osaka is the top hard court player in the world though and she has yet to drop her serve in the Tokyo Olympic tournament, while an aggressive return has seen her win 46% of the return points played in both matches. That has produced enough break points for Naomi Osaka to really dominate on the scoreboard and I do think there is going to be a lot of pressure on the lefty serve of Marketa Vondrousova despite the two wins the Czech player has put on the board.

The Second Round win was much easier than the three set win over Kiki Bertens in the First Round, but Marketa Vondrousova has had an inconsistent time on the hard courts over the last two seasons. The second serve is one that can be attacked by opponents and Marketa Vondrousova can sometimes be overwhelmed by the power coming against her which has been the case in some heavy losses on this surface to the likes of Aryna Sabalenka and Garbine Muguruza earlier this season.

Now she will have to deal with the immense power that Naomi Osaka can bring to the court and it will be a real challenge for Marketa Vondrousova to get into the return games she is playing. It only adds to the pressure when Osaka is ready to get on the front foot whenever she sees a second serve and ultimately I think this is a surface on which the Number 2 Seed can really push ahead with her aggressive brand of tennis.

Both wins produced so far this week have been by comfortable margins and I think Naomi Osaka is going to produce another one in the Third Round as she cover on her way through to the Quarter Finals.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Early losses in the build up to Wimbledon meant Karolina Pliskova could fly under the radar at the third Grand Slam of the 2021 season. She took full advantage of being able to play without a lot of pressure by reaching the Final at Wimbledon and the only regret will be the very slow start made in the three set defeat to Ashleigh Barty.

The recent form had made it difficult for anyone outside of Karolina Pliskova's team to believe she was ready for such a run at Wimbledon, but she has backed it up by winning two matches at the Tokyo Olympics. The Czech player is now the favourite to reach the Quarter Final as she edges closer to the Medal positions in Tokyo, while it will also be a good chance for Pliskova to give herself another shot of confidence before the US Open begins.

Karolina Pliskova did not have the best early form on the hard courts in 2021, but she will at least avoid having to face Jessica Pegula in this tournament. The latter has gotten the better of Karolina Pliskova too many times already in 2021, while the Czech player has just been a little short of where she would expect to be in her return numbers.

That part of her game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne in the build up to Wimbledon, but who has been in erratic form over the last twelve months. There is plenty of talent in the Giorgi racquet, but I am not always convinced that she is completely focused on her tennis and that has led to some inconsistent results, while her form on the hard courts in early 2021 has been less than impressive.

Camila Giorgi has a decent first serve which can make her dangerous, but the second serve is vulnerable and an over-aggressive return game can lead to a lot of unforced errors and easing the pressure on her opponent. It is certainly going to be a worry for her against the big Karolina Pliskova serve, while the head to head with this opponent is also going to be a mental obstacle for the Italian player to overcome.

She did beat Karolina Pliskova on the grass courts last month, but it is Karolina Pliskova who has won all four of their previous hard court matches. In those matches, Pliskova has dominated the return aspect of the matches against Camila Giorgi and she has produced plenty more break points than her Italian opponent and eventually broken down the game.

I do note that Karolina Pliskova has gotten a little more used to the kind of serving to expect from Camila Giorgi in those hard court matches and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this match too. There will be some rough moments for Pliskova to ride out considering how big and aggressive some of the tennis produced by Camila Giorgi can be, but I think the higher Ranked player can do that and she can eventually move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Both of these players have made comfortable progress through the first two Rounds of the Tokyo Olympics and I have to believe that both Belinda Bencic and Barbora Krejcikova can recognise an opportunity in front of them. The top half of the draw has already lost Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka and the winner of this Third Round match is going to be feeling confident of at least making it through to the Semi Final of the tournament and moving into a position to win a Medal.

There are still some dangerous player in the top half of the draw that have to be respected and neither of these players can afford to overlook the opponent across from the other side of the net in the Third Round. Comfortable wins in the first couple of Rounds should mean there are two confident players going onto the court, but Barbora Krejcikova is the right favourite as far as I am concerned.

The French Open Champion has been a solid hard court performer on the Singles Tour over the last two seasons and her numbers in 2021 have improved on those produced in 2020. Before the Tokyo Olympics got underway, Barbora Krejcikova had a good run at Wimbledon and she also won a hard court tournament at home in Prague, while a strong first serve has been backed up by an impressive return game.

Her hard court numbers are significantly stronger than the ones Belinda Bencic has produced in 2021 and I have long felt that the Swiss player has been something of an underachiever. That might be a surprising statement considering Bencic has been as high as World Number 4, but she has only reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam twice before in her career.

Both of those runs have come at the US Open, but the general hard court numbers have been pretty average and some way below the level that Barbora Krejcikova has produced on the surface. Belinda Bencic does have a decent first serve, but she has not been as convincing a return player as some of the other top names on the Tour and that has left her vulnerable at times.

Belinda Bencic has a losing record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts since the start of the 2020 season and she is just 2-4 in those matches in 2021. Some of the losses have been particularly one-sided and that has largely been down to the poor return numbers produced in those matches, which is a concern when facing someone who can serve as well as Barbora Krejcikova.

The Swiss player has lost all four matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and Belinda Bencic has won 29% of return points played in those matches. A vulnerable second serve has also been heavily exploited in those defeats and I think Barbora Krejcikova will have too much for Bencic in this Third Round match as she keeps her winning run going through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 10-7, + 2.94 Units (34 Units Staked, + 8.65% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.


Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 27th)

I didn't have any Tennis Picks on Thursday as tiredness from a tough week got the better of me meaning I could not put in the research I would like whenever I am making a Pick from any sport.

Of course it came after a really disappointing Wednesday when veterans Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco let me down- I won't back the latter as a favourite again, while the former is close to joining the permanent black list of players too.

That has turned a positive start to the week to a negative position and matches are not easy to call on Friday when we reach the Quarter Final matches across the five tournaments being played.

Any picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread on Friday morning.

Edit: The Picks from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals have been added now.


MY PICKS: Jozef Kovalik - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.92 Units (14 Units Staked, - 20.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 27th)

There were a number of matches on Wednesday but only one made my shortlist and then there were enough doubts when having a deeper look at that contest which put me off backing it.

It has been a pretty difficult week to find the right angles for picks this week and the only two I have been convinced about have both let me down. Both have been very, very close to success, but ultimately being close is not good enough and I am hoping for better on Thursday to get this week turned back around.

The remainder of the Second Round matches will be played on Thursday before we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the five events being played this week. On Thursday I do have five picks from the tournaments and I am looking for a really strong day to move this week into a positive position for the remaining three days.


Kiki Bertens - 5.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: This is the second time in 2017 that Kiki Bertens and Barbora Krejcikova will be meeting on the Tour and the latter will be hoping for much better than when she earned just three games in the Final in Nuremberg. That was a special tournament for Krejcikova, but Bertens has shown she is one of the better players on the clay courts on the WTA Tour with a title there and one won last week in Gstaad.

The Bertens numbers on the clay courts have been really impressive over the last two years and she has been able to look after her serve very effectively. That is perhaps no surprise when you think how good the serve is and Bertens is able to have the patience to work the points over.

It is also shown up in her return game overall, but those numbers get stronger across the board when Bertens has played opponents Ranked outside the top 100. Those small margins can make the big difference and it is difficult to see Krejcikova snap her 0-3 record against top 20 Ranked players on the clay despite the ease of her win over Annika Beck in the First Round here.

Tiredness could be a factor against Bertens who won the title in Gstaad but she didn't show that in her First Round win over Carina Witthoeft and I think the Bertens return game can set her up for a big win on Thursday. Serving as she has means Bertens can exert plenty of pressure on Krejcikova and I will look for the Dutchwoman to win this one 6-3, 6-3 and move into another Quarter Final on the clay in 2017.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Federico Delbonis: The decline in the David Ferrer game may be irreversible at this time of his career, but he won another title last week in Bastad. That was an impressive title win for Ferrer and I am a little worried that he will struggle to back that up with the inconsistency he has begun to show in his game.

Last week he beat Federico Delbonis who has suffered with injury and a loss of form to fall down the World Rankings and thus take part in more Challenger events than he has been used to. Delbonis has played well in those Challenger events with some deep runs in those tournaments which will have given him some confidence.

Winning two Qualifiers before a First Round success over Carlos Berlocq will add to that confidence and Delbonis and Ferrer did play a close match last week in Bastad. Both players were dominant on the return in that match and I think that will be the case again for both, although I can see Ferrer franking his form with another victory over Delbonis.

Ferrer has won all three previous matches against Delbonis without dropping a set, which is another mental edge for the veteran Spaniard, and I will look for him to win this one 7-6, 6-4.


Jiri Vesely - 2.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: He might not have been at his best in the First Round, but Jiri Vesely should take some heart from beating an in-form Fernando Verdasco over three sets. Playing a lefty in the First Round should mean Vesely is prepared for another meeting with Horacio Zeballos against whom he has won both previous matches.

Neither of those have been on the clay courts which will be Zeballos' preferred surface, but Vesely may also be at his best on this surface. His numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay have been very impressive and that is why I do lean towards Vesely winning this one and also covering this number.

I do have to respect the fact that Zeballos does get some pop on his serve which makes him dangerous, but his return game is not the best. Zeballos will also be challenged by the return game Vesely is able to produce against those players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that works together to see the Czech player move through to the Quarter Final.

In their two previous matches the superior returning of Vesely has proved to be a difference and I will be looking for this match to go the same way. A tie-breaker could be the key moment of the match, but I am looking for Vesely to win that and also the match 6-4, 7-6.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is much to admire about Karen Khachanov's game and the young Russian certainly looks like one of the names to look out for in the coming years. He has had a couple of solid performances at Grand Slam events over the last couple of months, and Khachanov is very comfortable on the clay courts.

He will have to be close to his best to beat Aljaz Bedene who has had a very strong run on the clay courts in 2017. Bedene has showed improvement in both serving and returning in 2017 and that has seen him produce better results.

However those have rarely come against players of the quality of Khachanov and I think that is going to be an issue. While Khachanov hasn't returned as well as he had been in the last couple of years, that has something to do with taken a step up in class when playing regular ATP events and Khachanov has produced better numbers when facing those players Ranked outside the top 50.

Khachanov beat Bedene twice on the clay courts in 2016 and I think he can produce another win over him here in Hamburg. While Bedene has played better tennis on the clay since his last match with Khachanov, I also think the latter is much improved and I can see him being too strong in a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 27th)

The Rogers Cup (or Coupe Rogers if you're from Quebec) is clearly one of the big Masters/Premier Events on the Tour, but the action on Tuesday was overshadowed by a simple statement by a player many consider to be the greatest of all time.

That might not be an opinion that I share myself, but I have huge amounts of admiration and respect for Roger Federer. Out of all the players on the Tour, no one comes to close to inspiring tennis Roger Federer can produce when he is on top form and I can easily say the top five performances I have ever seen live will have at least three Federer performances in there.

He is a majestic player to watch on any surface so I've always wanted him to end his career on his own terms, but this year has been a difficult one for him with back and knee issues affecting him. It still came as a surprise that Federer has made the decision to withdraw through the remainder of 2016 to make sure he can get his health up to full fitness in time for 2017.

It will raise questions as to whether retirement is an option for Federer, but my personal opinion is that he will be back on the Tour. 2017 could be a very difficult season for him though with the expected drop in the World Rankings meaning plenty of tough draws in a portion of the season that is perhaps not to Federer's complete liking in Australia through to the clay courts in Roland Garros.

While he won't have a lot of points to defend so can make significant improvements through that time, it can be a long road back up the World Rankings especially for a player that is going to be turning 36 years old in 2017.

I would love to see Federer back and looking to win one more Grand Slam, but that looks like a door that might be closed to him now and you have to question what the motivation will be. The statement makes it clear that Federer will be back, but he is now going to have five months enjoying seeing his family on a daily basis while being able to do whatever he likes and that life can be a lot more appealing than the grind of the ATP Tour at his age.

That may especially be the case for Federer when he takes a look at the World Rankings at the end of 2016 and suddenly realises he could potentially have to play the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic as early as the Fourth Round of Grand Slam events.

Even so, I can't imagine Federer will want to end his career with an injury so I wouldn't be surprised if he battles through at least another year and then calls it a day. The Olympic Games were a huge goal for Federer and missing that is going to hurt massively and I don't think he will want to be a player hanging around at Grand Slam tournaments to be beaten in Fourth Round or Quarter Final matches.

So while I do think he will be back in 2017, I would recommend everyone to try and take their chance to see Federer during the course of the year that could easily be his last as a professional.


The tournaments in Toronto and Montreal will begin heating up as we reach the middle of the week and seeing the likes of Novak Djokovic out there. The Second Round matches will be completed on Wednesday after a couple of them started on Tuesday and the first Masters of the North American summer swing will roll on.

With the full Second Round to be played in Toronto and Montreal, it is no surprise that there is plenty of tennis to get through on Wednesday.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: John Isner had to battle back from a set down to beat Dudi Sela in the First Round, but he has had a day off rest between that match and this Second Round match. The big American should be very comfortable at this time of the season on the North American hard courts but it hasn't been the best year for Isner on the hard courts in 2016.

Since 2009, Isner has had at least 25 wins on the hard court in each season, but he is just 9-5 so far this season and will be looking for some big runs over the next month to put a lot of wins down. He played well in Washington before blowing his match with Steve Johnson, and Isner will be confident he can down Ryan Harrison and move through to the Third Round here in Toronto.

Harrison is still outside the top 100 in the World Rankings but he has won three matches in Toronto, while his serve and heavy groundstrokes do make him a threat. The only issue Harrison has yet to resolve is his consistency inside matches and not throwing away a poor service game or two throughout the time he spends on court.

That cost Harrison last week against Steve Johnson as two poor service games led to a 64, 64 loss. He will be under immense pressure from the Isner serve if that is working as effectively as it can on the hard courts and I think that might lead to a couple of mental mistakes which can see Isner come through and cover this number of games.


David Goffin - 2.5 games v Sam Querrey: This is very much looking like being a career best year for David Goffin who might feel there is room for a place in the World Tour Finals up for grabs with a strong end to the season. I would very much expect a top 10 finish in the World Rankings, but my one concern for Goffin is how he will respond to losing his match at Wimbledon from two sets up against eventual Finalist Milos Raonic.

He has gotten over tough losses in the past, but having almost a month off from the Tour can be difficult, especially when facing a player like Sam Querrey who won't give you a lot of rhythm during a match. Querrey has also been in action in Washington last week where he reached the Quarter Final and he came through a difficult First Round match against Frank Dancevic already in Toronto.

This is very much a match up between a big server and someone who will feel he can win the rallies once they get past a four shots. The American will look to punish Goffin with his serve, but I do think the latter is going to be able to get enough balls back in play to at least force Querrey to hit big groundstrokes to win the point.

A key for Goffin is to make sure he gets enough balls back towards the Querrey backhand and deep enough to prevent him from running around for a forehand shot. The Goffin serve can be a liability at times when he is not feeling it off his racquet, but he did beat Querrey last year in Montreal in a decent run there and I will be looking for him to come through a tough first set and then earn a break more to take the second in a 76, 64 win.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: A new haircut might produce a new attitude for Fabio Fognini, but that could be pushing things a little too far. After winning the title in Umag, Fognini came over to Toronto and beat an in-form Steve Johnson in straight sets and this could be a turning point in a difficult season for him.

It was an impressive win for Fognini over Johnson as the underdog, but he will now be favoured to beat Jared Donaldson who has come through the Qualifiers. Donaldson has won all of his matches fairly comfortably this week, but this is the biggest test he will have faced when he meets the Italian in the Second Round.

Donaldson is still young and learning his game on the main Tour, while his losses on the hard courts won't exactly inspire people who will be backing him for the upset. Someone like Fognini will believe he will get the better of the majority of the rallies and there is some momentum behind him having won the tournament last week in Umag.

The Fognini serve is always a concern as is his temperament, but I think this is a good chance for him to pick up some more Ranking points and he looked plenty motivated on Tuesday. You don't always know what you're going to get out of Fognini on a day by day basis, but I think he will be stronger than Donaldson at the key moments and can win this one 64, 64 and move onto the Third Round.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Donald Young: Stan Wawrinka will be awaiting the winner of this Second Round match in the next Round and I think Jack Sock can get the better of his compatriot Donald Young on current form.

Both men had impressive wins in the First Round, but I like the way Sock played in the Davis Cup for the United States as well as the run in Washington last week. Sock was unfortunate in losing to Ivo Karlovic in straight sets last week having won more points in that match, and he has bounced back from his Davis Cup loss in the final Rubber.

Sock has been serving well and that will put some pressure on Donald Young who still shows too much inconsistency on the Tour. There is no doubt the potential will not be fulfilled, but Young can be dangerous when bringing his very best to the court, while the lefty serve will always give him half a chance for an upset.

The difference between the players is I feel Sock is capable of a little more behind the serve and is forehand is the biggest weapon on the court. He will need to protect the backhand against the Young forehand, but I think Sock will be able to go on the offensive enough in this one to break down his compatriot in a 75, 63 win.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: There was some tiredness in the Gael Monfils performance on Tuesday which has to be a concern when picking him to beat Vasek Pospisil in this Second Round match. However it has to be said that the Canadian has been going through a really difficult year and the mental belief is going to be on Monfils' side in this one which can see him battle through.

I would be hoping for a better serving display from Monfils than the one he had against Joao Sousa, but he has shown he is capable of extracting enough errors from opponents over the last ten days. In that time he has won the title in Washington and there hasn't been a lot of rest for the Frenchman and that is a nagging doubt in the back of my mind when it comes to this pick.

The reason I am sticking with Monfils is that Pospisil has won just 6 main Tour matches this season as he has dropped outside the top 100 in the World Rankings. Last season was a huge year for Pospisil who reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final, but he makes far too many mistakes off the ground when his decent first serve is sent back into play.

That is where Monfils should have success as he should get plenty of balls back in play and look for those mistakes to come out. It has also been a year where Pospisil has fallen away in matches when things have gone wrong and mentally he has plenty of obstacles to overcome to win a match like this and I am looking for Monfils to find a 76, 63 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Monica Niculescu: If you like your tennis played with a lot of variation and slice rather than pure power, this is the kind of match that should be right up your street. Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Monica Niculescu will try and work the other around the court behind slices and drop shots and look to keep their opponent off balance.

The problem for Niculescu is that she is not quite as good as Radwanska at doing that and I am not surprised that the latter has eventually won three of the four matches with room to spare. That includes coming through two matches in 2016 where Radwanska has won a competitive first set before moving away from Niculescu in the next three sets they have competed in.

Those three sets has seen Radwanska give up just four games against Niculescu, although this match should be tougher considering it is her first appearance since Wimbledon. The hard courts are her favoured surface as she can use the pace she is given to push the ball around, but that won't be the case in this match as Radwanska will need to be a little more proactive.

However I think she will have the mental belief against an opponent she has dominated this year already. Niculescu might already have had a couple of matches on the hard courts to become accustomed of the change in courts, but I think Radwanska will wear her down in a 64, 62 win in this one.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Sara Errani: I think my biggest criticism of Karolina Pliskova is the lack of real tactics when things start going wrong for her. She has a big serve and a heavy forehand, while Pliskova can get to the net, but I think she struggles to change up things when struggling in a match and mentally she finds it tough to handle the big tournaments.

Her Grand Slam record testifies to that, while a player like Sara Errani can expose the mental frailties by making sure she gets plenty of balls back in play.

The Italian has not been in great form in 2016 though and her serve is a real weakness which can be exposed by her opponents. I also think Errani might have lost half a step around the court which means she can't just hope to wear down opponents over the long haul and it is a surprise that she has more wins on the hard courts than she has on the clay courts through 2016.

That hard court record has been boosted by her surprising win in Dubai, and Errani would be 5-8 on the hard courts this year without that title win. Of those eight losses, Errani has failed to get within this number seven times and I think Pliskova has enough power to blow her off the court over the course of this match. At the end of last season, Pliskova beat Errani very easily on a hard court and I think she can take this match 64, 64.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: On first glance I thought this might be a lot of games for the inconsistent Madison Keys to overcome, but she has been far stronger than Madison Brengle in their head to heads and I think that will continue. Keys has won all three previous matches while covering this number of games although this is the first time they have played in 2016.

Keys has had some strong runs on the hard courts, but she is yet to really make a breakthrough despite being up to Number 12 in the World Rankings. There is so much potential in the Keys game, but the expectation is there that she can finally win a really big tournament to show she is ready to fulfil that potential.

She is going to have the power over Brengle, but the issue for Keys is going to be consistently hitting her marks to keep her compatriot under pressure.

Brengle has taken some overpowering losses on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but she has also shown she can get the better of opponents who might not be in top form. However I liked how Keys played in the First Round and I think she will have the majority of the break points through this match which should give her every chance to come through 75, 62 and move into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-4, + 7.86 Units (26 Units Staked, + 30.23% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 27th)

Last week has to be the worst one I have experienced for a long time, easily the worst of the 2015 season, and it shouldn't surprise that I decided to call it on Thursday after the third day in a row where I felt I was not getting the breaks I wanted.

I've said enough about that in my last post so I just want to put a line through the week and move on.


There are another large amount of tournaments this week including the ATP 500 event in Hamburg which has attracted Rafael Nadal to take a Wild Card spot. I mentioned in the immediate aftermath of his exit at Wimbledon that he would be wise to try and build some confidence during the summer clay court events so am glad to see Nadal has taken a spot in Hamburg, but the First Round draw with Fernando Verdasco is far from an easy match for him.

Events in Gstaad, Atlanta, Baku and Florianopolis are also being played this week as I look for a bounce back from the shocking turn of last week.


Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The final match in Hamburg on Monday is the First Round match between Nicolas Almagro and Albert Ramos-Vinolas and I think Almagro gets the better of his compatriot.

He rode his luck to a win over Fernando Verdasco last week before a disappointing 63, 63 loss to Denis Istomin, but Almagro has the power and comfort on the clay courts to take advantage of this match up. Nicolas Almagro has to serve well to keep the pressure on Albert Ramos-Vinolas who he beat earlier this season on clay in straight sets to make it four in a row against him.

I don't want to under-estimate Ramos-Vinolas who has won a Challenger on clay recently and reached the Quarter Final in Bastad last week before finding Tommy Robredo too good.

The lefty serve gives Ramos-Vinolas a chance to work his way through some service games without too much pressure, but Almagro has a backhand that is capable of negating this forehand and that should give him the edge in the rallies. It is also part of the reason the match up has been so good for Almagro along with the additional power and the better serve that he has over Ramos-Vinolas.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Donald Young: Gilles Muller is coming off a decent grass court season, but he might have expected a better run at Wimbledon than a First Round defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This time last season Muller was playing in Challenger events on the hard courts prior to the US Open, but he has the form to get into the main draw in Atlanta and will be looking for a better run in North America than his early losses at Indian Wells and Miami.

However, Muller did reach the Final of a Challenger event in Texas and will feel he has the serve to trouble Donald Young who was embarrassed in Atlanta last year.

Young won just three games in his defeat to Dudi Sela last year and has regularly struggled at this event where he has suffered three consecutive First Round matches and failed to qualify in his last four appearances here. In fact, Young is just 1-4 in the main draw in Atlanta and Muller has the kind of game to give Young plenty of troubles.

That game isn't perfectly suited to the hard courts where the ball doesn't skid as low as on the grass, but Muller can become the latest to get the better of Young on these courts. It might need three sets, but I expect Muller to be the player that comes out on top.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 2-14, - 24.44 Units (32 Units Staked, - 76.38% Yield)

Season 2015: + 10.81 Units (1178 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 27th)

After the shocking news about Victor Troicki yesterday, there are some reports today that suggest Marin Cilic is another player that has failed a random test, this time in Munich earlier this season. This news is still to be confirmed by the ITF so I am not going to say anything more about it until we have the full facts, but it should be enough to say I would be massively disappointed if this turns out to be the case.

Marin Cilic is certainly one of the players I enjoy watching on the Tour and it would be a real kick in the teeth if he is banned for doping. It would also raise a few more questions about the amount that tennis players are tested on the Tour with notable names like Novak Djokovic admitting he goes months without hearing the knock on the door.

With potentially two high profile cases, the random testing procedure will certainly be called into question going forward.


It was yet another very positive day for the picks on Friday, although I am writing this while the Santiago Giraldo-Ryan Harrison match is in the third set and Kevin Anderson-Denis Istomin is yet to begin. However, the earlier picks from the tournaments had mainly been successful to make this a very strong week already as we get to the Semi Final stage.

I will update the weekly totals from the last two picks once those matches have been concluded.


Victor Hanescu + 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Both of the Semi Finals in Gstaad look like tight matches and I think taking the games in both will end up being the smart play in matches where the underdog has a real chance of winning outright.

The first of the Semi Finals is being contested by two players that will be well aware of what the other can bring to the table. Victor Hanescu and Mikhail Youzhny will be meeting for the ninth time on Tour and they have split the previous eight meetings at four apiece.

However, it is Hanescu who holds a 3-1 lead on the clay courts and that includes a surprise win over the Russian earlier this season. That match was closer than the straight sets win for Hanescu suggested, but he will feel he can back that up here with the conditions as they are in Gstaad.

The ball is moving pretty quickly with the altitude and that will only aid the Hanescu serve and Youzhny has spent a lot more time on the court this week with all three matches having to be decided in the final set. There is more than a little chance that Hanescu will win at least one set and that could give him a strong chance to cover this small spread even if he doesn't quite pull out the win.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Feliciano Lopez crushed Robin Haase at the US Open last year in their last meeting, but I do think Robin Haase is capable of keeping this match close and has a real chance of actually winning the match.

The clay courts are where Haase will certainly feel at his most comfortable and he too has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that can take advantage of the faster conditions here in Gstaad.

He will likely have to serve well as Lopez has been serving effectively for much of the week and has been particularly tough on any break points he has faced.

The match has a feeling of being one that could go the entire way to a three set encounter and Haase has every chance to win the match. As long as he doesn't crumble in a manner that the Dutchman can sometimes do, a set should be enough for him to put himself in a position to cover the spread even if Haase doesn't win the match.


Gael Monfils + 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The most in-form player on the Tour is a couple wins away from taking away three titles in back to back to back weeks, but this could be the toughest test for Fabio Fognini to overcome.

Fognini has been playing some very good tennis for the last month and he hasn't just been winning matches, but winning fairly comfortably for the most part. He has only dropped a couple of sets during his 12 match winning run and this week he has continued to look impressive.

His return of serve has been very effective and he is putting opponents under a lot of pressure, so much so that his own serve has been well protected for the most part.

However, Gael Monfils is a player that can force a lot of mistakes from his opponents and he can certainly grind some mistakes out of the Italian, while his first serve can be effective enough to set up points. It was that first serve that set up Monfils' win over Fognini in Nice earlier this season on the clay and I believe this could be a tight three setter which may allow the Frenchman to cover the spread even if he loses.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: Kevin Anderson came through a tough Quarter Final last night and I would expect him to serve a little more effectively in this match than he did yesterday.

His first serve percentage was too low and that kept him under a little bit of pressure on serve, but I expect him to have a little more success in this match.

Ryan Harrison hasn't had  a great season, but he came through a tough match yesterday to reach the Semi Final here in Atlanta for the second time in three seasons. He does look a little short of confidence and that could be seen in his play when he was over-reliant on the high, looping ball and that will be punished by a big hitter like Anderson.

The American does have a decent serve, but it is one that Anderson could get his teeth into and I like the Number 2 seed in Atlanta to win this one 64, 64.


Jamie Hampton + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: I believe that Jamie Hampton can certainly make an impact on the WTA Tour now that her injuries have cleared up and she is going to be moving up the Rankings with a real chance to be seeded at the US Open.

Hampton can be aggressive on return of serve and that will be aided by the faster courts that are preferred in North America. She can certainly get involved in the Agnieszka Radwanska service games, while Hampton possesses a decent serve that could cause her higher Ranked opponent some problems.

My biggest concern is that I have sometimes seen Hampton collapse in a set and that could help her Polish opponent cover the spread even if this goes into a third set. However, I think there is some upside to the Hampton game and I do think she can force a decider and hopefully will do so and cover the spread even if she doesn't quite spring the surprise win.


MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu + 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jamie Hampton + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-11, + 9.86 Units (52 Units Staked, + 18.96% Yield)

Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.

I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.

Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:

Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.

Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.

Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.


Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.

Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.

Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.

However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.

He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.

Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.

Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.


James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.

Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.

They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.


MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units