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Thursday, 3 September 2026

US Open Day 5 Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 3rd September)

After moving a double break ahead in the deciding set and then missing multiple Match Points at 5-3, Elina Svitolina ultimately secured a 6-2, 6-7, 6-4 win, which meant missing the cover by a single game.

The reality is that she should have covered and that would have made it eight selections and eight winners.

But most would take 7-1 and that is certainly the case here.

It all means the opening four days of the US Open could not have gone much better, but it is only the opening four days.

At Grand Slams earlier this season, strong starts were not maintained as effectively as hoped and building on this foundation is the challenge over the remainder of this tournament.


Most of the big names continue to make relatively comfortable progress through the opening Rounds in New York City, although dumb questions from journalists continues to be a huge feature of the sport. While you do get some awkward exchanges in other sports, it seems particularly common in tennis pressers at Grand Slams and that was the case for the likes of Rafael Jodar and Aryna Sabalenka on Wednesday.

The latter looked incredibly frustrated with the way questions were framed before being posed to her and Aryna Sabalenka had every right to voice that frustration.

At least her tennis on the court is producing as she would like, but there are plenty of challengers scattered in this tournament and many players are going to feel they have the qualities needed to be picking up the Championship trophy in a little over a week from now.

Hopefully by that time, the US Open Picks will be in a really strong position to add a positive number to the season totals as well.


Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: As the World Number 4 and 2025 US Open Semi Finalist, Felix Auger Aliassime has to arrive in New York City filled with real confidence about what can be achieved here.

However, so much of his game is about the mental attitude being right and Felix Auger Aliassime has been critical of himself for some of the Grand Slam exits suffered and the manner of those exits. There is going to be extra pressure put on himself by himself, but Auger Aliassime has had limited competitive tennis in the lead up to the US Open and needed four sets to get past the World Number 85 in the First Round.

There may have been a hope that Felix Auger Aliassime could work his way into this Grand Slam, but that is not going to be the case in the Second Round when going up against Karen Khachanov.

The 30 year is the World Number 50 entering the US Open, but Karen Khachanov has reached the Semi Final at both the Australian and US Open previously, while he has a couple of Quarter Final appearances at both the French Open and Wimbledon. Any player with that kind of experience has to be given a lot of respect, but Karen Khachanov has been struggling for any form on the hard courts leading up to New York City.

Karen Khachanov had lost all three hard court matches since Wimbledon and he had won a single set in that time, but he dropped just four games in winning his First Round match.

Over the course of this season, Karen Khachanov is just 1-6 in hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents and it is the 10% of return games ending in breaks of serve which have proved to be really problematic. It is going to be a big ask to improve on that markedly against a server like Felix Auger Aliassime and the Canadian has shown he has the tennis that gives him every chance of winning this match.

They are 2-2 in the head to head with Karen Khachanov winning the most recent on the grass courts of Halle in 2025, but Felix Auger Aliassime can get revenge on these hard courts and especially on the form the two have produced on the surface this year.

The most recent hard court meeting was won by Felix Auger Aliassime, albeit back in 2021, but the younger man has been the superior player in each of the last three matches against Karen Khachanov and can work his way to a three or four set win.


Lorenzo Musetti - 8.5 games v Dane Sweeny: This is a very wide spread for any Grand Slam contest, but Lorenzo Musetti came through an awkward First Round match in impressive fashion and can continue his path at the US Open.

After missing some time on the Tour, Lorenzo Musetti returned in the build up to the US Open and reached the Quarter Final in both Washington and Cincinnati. The three losses this summer have been against Rafael Jodar (twice) and Frances Tiafoe, but Lorenzo Musetti has won plenty of matches as well and he should be very happy with this Second Round match up.

Dane Sweeny has to be credited for reaching his career best World Ranking mark at the end of July and he is set for a new career best following this tournament, although the Australian has not cracked the top 100 just yet. He is making use of the Wild Card, but benefited from a draw pairing him with Corentin Moutet in the First Round who has been seriously struggling with an injury and perhaps only arrived in New York City with the prize money on offer a real factor.

Prior to that, Dane Sweeny had been just 1-3 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this year and his numbers have been a disappointment. Not only is he holding in just 65% of service games played, but Sweeny has struggled to have much of an impact on the return and he is going up against a very solid competitor in Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian has put together an 8-1 record on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 and Lorenzo Musetti has held in 84% of his service games played in those matches. That alone would not be enough to put such a record together, but Lorenzo Musetti has also broken in 32% of return games played in those nine matches and he is expected to have too much all around know-how for a young player still developing his tennis at a lower level than the one he is facing on Thursday.

Despite all of that, you do have to respect the wide handicap mark set and Lorenzo Musetti is going to need to make a fast start to put himself in a spot to cover.

Confidence can be taken from how Lorenzo Musetti was performing in the matches he would have expected to win in Montreal and Cincinnati over the last month and the World Number 14 can win a set with a couple of breaks of serve to put him on the way to a cover.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iva Jovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 12-2, + 15.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 54.79% Yield)

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