One of my personal criticisms of recent years on the Tour in relation to the WTA half has been that there have not been the standout dominant players who have made a significant separation from the pack.
It has meant Grand Slams have felt very open for any player to come through with a solid two week run to earn a Major, which can be a positive once in a while, but not for every tournament.
2026 feels different and that is underlined by the top four Ranked players all reaching the Semi Final at the US Open.
Both Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova reached the Quarter Final and will feel they should have beaten higher Ranked players, but those runs are also a positive seeing as the two youngsters won the French Open and Wimbledon respectively. Instead of being a 'flash in the pan' like some recent Grand Slam Winners have felt, both Andreeva and Noskova look like they will be playing amongst the elite of the Tour for many years to come and are almost certainly going to add to the Slams already won.
Three of the four Semi Finalists at the US Open will be searching for at least a third Grand Slam title with the exception being Jessica Pegula.
An all-American Final can still be the outcome on Saturday, but the two big hitting World Number 1 and World Number 2 stand in the way and those having tickets for the Evening Session are going to be in for a fun day on the grounds.
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Both of these Semi Finalists are going to feel they showed plenty of character to come through awkward moments in the Quarter Final and that should give them confidence as the US Open begins to reach its climax.
The top Seed in the draw has officially lost the World Number 1 Ranking, but Aryna Sabalenka likely made peace with that happening considering how the Ranking Points were shaking out. Instead the only focus for the Belarusian is winning a Grand Slam title in 2026 and she will simply be glad to still be involved in New York City after the narrow win in the Quarter Final.
To be fair to Aryna Sabalenka, she had been the better player in the match against Linda Noskova, but the two time defending US Open Champion did not play the big points as well as she would have liked, at least not until the final set tie-breaker. The Noskova serve made a big impact at the big moments, but Aryna Sabalenka will be aware that her opponent in this Semi Final is not going to serve as big as the Wimbledon Champion.
Another year looked to be passing Jessica Pegula by as she trailed in the US Open Quarter Final and her hopes of winning a first Grand Slam would have faded a little more.
Before it was too late, Pegula started to find some of her best tennis, but she will be the first to admit that the last three Rounds have not been good enough from a serving perspective. Jessica Pegula is a very good return player, which has made up for the serving problems, but she cannot hope to get away with such a drop in standard against someone who serves as well as Aryna Sabalenka does.
There is also the mental obstacle of having been beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in the last two years at the US Open.
Those losses have been in the 2024 Final and the 2025 Semi Final and Jessica Pegula will believe that she should have the last of those matches. However, she ultimately did come up short and has now lost five of the last six hard court matches between these players since August 2024.
The last three of those matches have needed a third set decider, while Jessica Pegula beat Aryna Sabalenka on the grass courts of Berlin in the sole match played between these top WTA players in 2026.
It is a win that will give her confidence, but Jessica Pegula is going to have to dig in and find another level if she is going to beat Aryna Sabalenka on this court.
The service numbers have fallen away dramatically in the last three Rounds and it is very difficult to see how Jessica Pegula can find her way into another US Open Final without improving that part of her game dramatically. That feels unlikely right now and Aryna Sabalenka can take advantage of that to tip the scales in her favour in this big match.
No one can say that Aryna Sabalenka has fully convinced at the US Open having had a difficult year overall, but she is playing at a superior level compared with Jessica Pegula. Those back to back US Open wins over the World Number 3 will also give the top Seed that much more belief in the tighter moments of this Semi Final and that may end up being a key reason for Aryna Sabalenka to reach yet another Final at this Grand Slam.
Elena Rybakina v Coco Gauff: The come from behind win in the Quarter Final means Elena Rybakina has secured the World Number 1 Ranking regardless of how this tournament is concluded. However, she looked to be taking in that achievement in her stride and the focus is on backing up the success at the Australian Open by adding this hard court Grand Slam to the collection.
It is fitting that the top four players in the World Rankings are all involved in the final four at the US Open after Coco Gauff also rallied for a Quarter Final win.
The American is one of two former Champions still in the tournament and Coco Gauff continues to dig deep and win matches even when not at her best. This is a strong character trait and even seeing the run of sets won come to an end did not stop Coco Gauff from believing she could turn the Quarter Final back around.
At the same time, Coco Gauff will be the first to admit that she was not at her best in the win on Wednesday and she will have to improve significantly to beat someone in the form of Elena Rybakina.
Both of these players reached the Final of different WTA 1000 tournaments in the lead up to the US Open, although Coco Gauff won the title in Cincinnati and Elena Rybakina came up a little short in Toronto.
However, Elena Rybakina did beat Coco Gauff in her run in Toronto and used her superior serve to earn the edge in that match.
This has to be the approach to this Semi Final and Elena Rybakina has found her easy power working very well on the New York City hard courts. The performances have been impressive and it is a real surprise that she had not been beyond the Fourth Round at the US Open previously, but Elena Rybakina has looked more comfortable here this year and it is the serve that is going to set things up for her.
Coco Gauff has been serving pretty well herself, but was put under a lot of pressure by Mirra Andreeva in the Quarter Final before turning things around. There is little time between the Quarter Final and Semi Final to make big adjustments and it could be another difficult day for the American with the pressure that Elena Rybakina can create with her own delivery.
The fans are going to give Gauff a boost and this is a player that never knows when they are beaten, which makes her dangerous.
In saying that, Coco Gauff will know she needs to improve significantly on the performance produced against Elena Rybakina last month in Toronto and the future World Number 1 looks the right play. The money has come in on Rybakina which has shifted her from an opening 2.20 outsider to a 1.85 favourite, but she does look to be the right player to back even if Coco Gauff is a fighter who is unlikely to wilt under the lights.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 29-21, + 4.58 Units (100 Units Staked, + 4.58% Yield)
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