US Open Day 5 Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 3rd September)

After moving a double break ahead in the deciding set and then missing multiple Match Points at 5-3, Elina Svitolina ultimately secured a 6-2, 6-7, 6-4 win, which meant missing the cover by a single game.

The reality is that she should have covered and that would have made it eight selections and eight winners.

But most would take 7-1 and that is certainly the case here.

It all means the opening four days of the US Open could not have gone much better, but it is only the opening four days.

At Grand Slams earlier this season, strong starts were not maintained as effectively as hoped and building on this foundation is the challenge over the remainder of this tournament.

Most of the big names continue to make relatively comfortable progress through the opening Rounds in New York City, although dumb questions from journalists continues to be a huge feature of the sport. While you do get some awkward exchanges in other sports, it seems particularly common in tennis pressers at Grand Slams and that was the case for the likes of Rafael Jodar and Aryna Sabalenka on Wednesday.

The latter looked incredibly frustrated with the way questions were framed before being posed to her and Aryna Sabalenka had every right to voice that frustration.

At least her tennis on the court is producing as she would like, but there are plenty of challengers scattered in this tournament and many players are going to feel they have the qualities needed to be picking up the Championship trophy in a little over a week from now.

Hopefully by that time, the US Open Picks will be in a really strong position to add a positive number to the season totals as well.

Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: As the World Number 4 and 2025 US Open Semi Finalist, Felix Auger Aliassime has to arrive in New York City filled with real confidence about what can be achieved here.

However, so much of his game is about the mental attitude being right and Felix Auger Aliassime has been critical of himself for some of the Grand Slam exits suffered and the manner of those exits. There is going to be extra pressure put on himself by himself, but Auger Aliassime has had limited competitive tennis in the lead up to the US Open and needed four sets to get past the World Number 85 in the First Round.

There may have been a hope that Felix Auger Aliassime could work his way into this Grand Slam, but that is not going to be the case in the Second Round when going up against Karen Khachanov.

The 30 year is the World Number 50 entering the US Open, but Karen Khachanov has reached the Semi Final at both the Australian and US Open previously, while he has a couple of Quarter Final appearances at both the French Open and Wimbledon. Any player with that kind of experience has to be given a lot of respect, but Karen Khachanov has been struggling for any form on the hard courts leading up to New York City.

Karen Khachanov had lost all three hard court matches since Wimbledon and he had won a single set in that time, but he dropped just four games in winning his First Round match.

Over the course of this season, Karen Khachanov is just 1-6 in hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents and it is the 10% of return games ending in breaks of serve which have proved to be really problematic. It is going to be a big ask to improve on that markedly against a server like Felix Auger Aliassime and the Canadian has shown he has the tennis that gives him every chance of winning this match.

They are 2-2 in the head to head with Karen Khachanov winning the most recent on the grass courts of Halle in 2025, but Felix Auger Aliassime can get revenge on these hard courts and especially on the form the two have produced on the surface this year.

The most recent hard court meeting was won by Felix Auger Aliassime, albeit back in 2021, but the younger man has been the superior player in each of the last three matches against Karen Khachanov and can work his way to a three or four set win.

Lorenzo Musetti - 8.5 games v Dane Sweeny: This is a very wide spread for any Grand Slam contest, but Lorenzo Musetti came through an awkward First Round match in impressive fashion and can continue his path at the US Open.

After missing some time on the Tour, Lorenzo Musetti returned in the build up to the US Open and reached the Quarter Final in both Washington and Cincinnati. The three losses this summer have been against Rafael Jodar (twice) and Frances Tiafoe, but Lorenzo Musetti has won plenty of matches as well and he should be very happy with this Second Round match up.

Dane Sweeny has to be credited for reaching his career best World Ranking mark at the end of July and he is set for a new career best following this tournament, although the Australian has not cracked the top 100 just yet. He is making use of the Wild Card, but benefited from a draw pairing him with Corentin Moutet in the First Round who has been seriously struggling with an injury and perhaps only arrived in New York City with the prize money on offer a real factor.

Prior to that, Dane Sweeny had been just 1-3 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this year and his numbers have been a disappointment. Not only is he holding in just 65% of service games played, but Sweeny has struggled to have much of an impact on the return and he is going up against a very solid competitor in Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian has put together an 8-1 record on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 and Lorenzo Musetti has held in 84% of his service games played in those matches. That alone would not be enough to put such a record together, but Lorenzo Musetti has also broken in 32% of return games played in those nine matches and he is expected to have too much all around know-how for a young player still developing his tennis at a lower level than the one he is facing on Thursday.

Despite all of that, you do have to respect the wide handicap mark set and Lorenzo Musetti is going to need to make a fast start to put himself in a spot to cover.

Confidence can be taken from how Lorenzo Musetti was performing in the matches he would have expected to win in Montreal and Cincinnati over the last month and the World Number 14 can win a set with a couple of breaks of serve to put him on the way to a cover.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iva Jovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 12-2, + 15.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 54.79% Yield)

US Open Day 4 Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 2nd September)

The First Round is officially completed at the US Open and the biggest storyline through the opening three days is the exit of Novak Djokovic.

Father Time is unbeaten, but you do have to wonder if Novak Djokovic is going to decide to end his season immediately and try and deal with the issue he has been speaking about for a few weeks. While he has not disclosed the exact nature of the issue, the fact it flares up with the heat and humidity does suggest a stint through Asia and then the indoor hard court tournaments in the lead up to the Tour Finals would make little sense for a player who is all about being in prime condition to take on the Grand Slams.

These issues have come up at a bad time with Jannik Sinner out of the tournament and Carlos Alcaraz having missed four months on the Tour before returning, but Novak Djokovic may yet feel there is one more Grand Slam in him if he can get back to close to full health. It has only been nine months since he led the Australian Open Final before running out of steam and the hope is that the former World Number 1 can find a way to come back strong in 2027.

Most of the other contenders have fought their way through the opening Round, although Alexander Zverev made very hard work of his victory over Lorenzo Sonego.

A Grand Slam is up for grabs as far as those involved in the Women's tournament are concerned, but there is also a very strong race for the World Number 1 spot when this event is wrapped up and the top names chasing that position are all safely through.

Things tend to get much tougher as we move through the Rounds, but we are still in a position where defeats for the top names would be in upset conditions.

Rain has been a disruptor through the opening few days in New York City and this tournament will play very differently if the heat picks up and that all has to be factored into the Tennis Picks, which have made a very good start to this event, but with so much more tennis yet to be played.

Day 4 is easily the busiest for the Tennis Picks so far at the final Grand Slam of the season and that can see the opening successes quickly erased, which means this is a time for focus.

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Jaime Faria: Despite a wrist injury that has kept Carlos Alcaraz away from the Tour for four months, the defending US Open Champion's decision to play in New York City meant he was given a short price to win this title.

That was always going to be the case considering Carlos Alcaraz added the Australian Open to his hard court Grand Slam collection earlier this year, but there are going to be question marks around the Spaniard for as long as he is involved in this tournament.

A straight sets win over a dangerous opponent will have given Carlos Alcaraz some confidence, although he will privately be assessing the wrist and see how it responds in the time away from the court. It also should be noted that Carlos Alcaraz was not as convincing behind serve, although that may have something to do with not wanting to push the wrist too quickly, while it should be said that he was still a very solid winner on the day.

As with any Grand Slam, the level of opponent will get more difficult the deeper you move through the draw, but Jaime Faria may not be a big step up from Roman Safiullon if he is considered a step up at all.

The 23 year old has shown solid form on the hard courts, but Jaime Faria is just 1-2 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2026.

He needed almost four hours to get through the First Round match after Jaime Faria was guilty of throwing away a two set lead before rallying in the decider, while he faced more Break Points than he created. The serve can be a big weapon when at his best, but Jaime Faria may find it difficult to win the rallies once they develop and that time spent on the court is not ideal ahead of a Second Round match against the defending Champion.

Carlos Alcaraz will be someone that all keep a close eye on considering the layoff, but this is perhaps a time when he can show his quality before tougher tests potentially await.

Tommy Paul - 6.5 games v Dino Prizmic: Any player who has reached as high as World Number 8 should be credited for the career that has been put together, but the one criticism you may have of Tommy Paul is that he has never quite been able to put a strong run on the board at the US Open.

The American has reached the Quarter Final at every Grand Slam other than the US Open and reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the hard courts used Down Under. A couple of Fourth Round runs is as good as it has gotten in New York City and time is now perhaps running out for Tommy Paul to go a little further.

With Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic already out of the tournament and Carlos Alcaraz returning after a long layoff, Tommy Paul may not get a better opportunity to reach the last eight at the US Open than this one in 2026.

He came through the opening Round in relatively cool fashion after winning three sets in a row in style and Tommy Paul is a significant favourite to get the better of Dino Prizmic, who needed virtually four hours to get through his opening match.

Dino Prizmic is a player with real potential, but he is still developing his game for the professional Tour and matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts have proven to be a little too much for him. He did take a set from Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open in 2024, but Dino Prizmic was beaten in straight sets by Andrey Rublev twelve months ago and the energy expended in the First Round is far from ideal.

The younger player does have a serve that can be effective on the hard courts, but his return is going to have to be better against someone like Tommy Paul who has held 91% of his service games played against those Ranked outside the top 50.

It is the returning side of the tennis where Tommy Paul looks like he can exert his experience on this match and the World Number 21 should be able to cover this handicap mark.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Lloyd Harris: Any time a player earns an upset in a Grand Slam, the natural expectation is that they are going to struggle to deal with the new weight of expectation on their shoulders and to match the intensity that was needed to spring the upset.

In 2026, Stefanos Tsitsipas beating Arthur Fils is a big upset and especially on the hard courts and considering the kind of form that both players have shown over the last month.

Arthur Fils won the Cincinnati Masters and looked set for a deep run in New York City, but the young Frenchman has found the pressure of a Grand Slam too much to take.

It has opened the door for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has struggled for any kind of consistency through stops in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati and Winston Salem and the former Australian Open Semi Finalist has never made much of an impact in New York City in his career. An upset has offered up a chance for Tsitsipas to have his best run at the US Open and you have to believe his experience means he can cope with the media interest in the said upset.

Next up is a match against Qualifier Lloyd Harris who is playing as the World Number 139 and who is currently moving through his latest rebuild on the Tour.

Three wins in Qualifying and a straight sets win in the First Round will have filled Lloyd Harris with confidence having won a Challenger title and reached the Semi Final at another in the build up to the US Open.

The only downside to any rebuild period is that Lloyd Harris has not really faced too many of the very top players on the Tour and he is just 1-2 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this season. All three have been played in the lead up to the US Open and you do have to wonder if Lloyd Harris is ready to beat someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas, even if the latter's current form is hardly all that inspiring.

Lloyd Harris will know his serve needs to more effective than it has been in the matches against top 100 Ranked opponents and it is an area that Stefanos Tsitsipas may feel gives him the edge.

You would never describe the World Number 53 as a really strong return player on this surface, but Stefanos Tsitsipas showed what he can do against Arthur Fils and the expectation is that he can get through this Second Round without needing to get to a deciding set.

Ben Shelton - 1.5 sets v Hubert Hurkacz: Both of these players have moved through the First Round of the US Open after dropping a single set and both have won a title in the build up to the final Grand Slam of the 2026 season.

However, it cannot be ignored that World Number 8 Ben Shelton won his in Montreal at the Canadian Masters, while Hubert Hurkacz won a Challenger event in Cancun.

Hubert Hurkacz will always feel he gives himself a chance to win matches with his booming serve and that is going to have to be important for him in his bid to earn the upset. Despite that serve, Hurkacz has not really been able to have the kind of consistent impact at Grand Slam events that a career high World Number 6 mark suggests he should have.

The Pole has reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon and Quarter Final at the Australian Open, but the Second Round is as good as it has gotten in New York City and Hubert Hurkacz may need an 'off day' from Ben Shelton to win this match.

Ben Shelton has won a couple of hard court titles and reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne earlier this year, while he has found a bit more consistency on his return. The American is always going to have a very dangerous serve, but he has broken in 17% of return games on the hard courts in each of the last two seasons and Ben Shelton has won a few more points on the return compared with 2025.

Putting that together continues to keep Ben Shelton as one of the leading contenders whenever he enters a hard court tournament, even if he has room for improvement to bridge the gap to the absolute elite on the Tour. His performance in the First Round against a dangerous server will give Ben Shelton the belief to take into this tough Second Round match and the fans are likely going to be very loud behind the home player.

All of this looks to be leading to a Ben Shelton win in three or four sets in what should be a serve dominated contest.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Unit)

Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Diana Shnaider - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 5-1, + 5.42 Units (12 Units Staked, + 45.17% Yield)

US Open Day 3 Tennis Picks 2026 (Tuesday 1st September)

It has been a pretty intense last couple of days and that has made it difficult to sit down and write out a longer thread as the US Open has gotten underway.

That should improve as the week goes forward, but the Tennis Picks can be read below as we look to build on the opening success.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: The big news in the Men's draw is the early elimination of Novak Djokovic and that has only opened the draw up even further after Jannik Sinner withdraw before the tournament began. There are still lingering doubts about the overall fitness of Carlos Alcaraz and that will mean French Open Champion, Alexander Zverev, is going to be considered a big threat having been a Runner Up in New York City before.

His performances this summer will have lessened some of the enthusiasm around Alexander Zverev's prospects, but he is a very solid Grand Slam competitor and the experience cannot be underestimated the longer he remains in the tournament.

The First Round match against Lorenzo Sonego is going to be a test, but the match up is one that Alexander Zverev will be comfortable dealing with.

A couple of matches were won at Winston Salem, but Lorenzo Sonego has not enjoyed much success in the lead up to the the US Open and is playing as the World Number 89.

At 31 years old, Lorenzo Sonego will know that his best years may be behind him, but his serve can be very dangerous on the faster surfaces. However, that also means there is pressure to serve well at all times and especially in any match where he is bidding for an upset, and that has perhaps held the Italian back.

Lorenzo Sonego has held 80% of his service games in the three hard court matches against Alexander Zverev, but the latter has held 97% and that is a massive difference.

There has been a huge difference in the percentage of service points won to create that gap in the games held and the performances in the build up to the US Open suggests there will be no change to Alexander Zverev being the dominant player in this First Round contest.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Janice Tjen: Winning the French Open title means Mirra Andreeva has already achieved one of her career ambitions, but there is so much more to come from the talented teenager.

The next step in the development is improving the hard court consistency and becoming a threat to win a Grand Slam on this surface- Mirra Andreeva has reached the Fourth Round in three consecutive years at the Australian Open, but playing in New York City is a learning experience for players and Andreeva has struggled here and yet to reach the second week.

There has been little to take from the performances in Toronto and Cincinnati, but Mirra Andreeva should be able to get through the early Round before one of the better players on the Tour will end up having too much for her.

It is unlikely that Janice Tjen is going to be that opponent having already been beaten by Mirra Andreeva once in the build up to the 2026 US Open.

Janice Tjen is the World Number 36 and only just missed out on a Seeding of her own, which has to be respected, but this is a player with an 8-13 record on the hard courts in 2026 and who is 0-5 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents.

Her numbers in those five matches against top 20 Ranked opponents have been really poor and Janice Tjen will struggle to bridge that gap.

Mirra Andreeva continues to beat those players she will expect to beat on the hard courts and her numbers have been very strong in those matches played.

When these two met in Cincinnati, Mirra Andreeva was the much stronger player and she may have enough to cover the handicap in this US Open First Round match.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 2-0, + 2.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 68% Yield)