NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning efforts week after week in the NFL was simply not going to be a run that could be sustained.

Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, eight had ended with a positive number behind the selections, but Week 10 was a huge blow.

Despite that, the season totals are still very much in a strong position, and that is what has to be remembered as we reset and try and go again.

Some of the selections were poor, which can happen- the Giants proved to be a team chasing the top Draft Pick when losing in Munich and they never looked like covering as a big favourite, that was simply a poor Pick. Matthew Stafford must have missed a number of wide open Touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but again, it felt like a poor Pick pretty early as the Los Angeles Rams kept getting bogged down.

However, it still amazes me to think that Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta all failed to cover last week.

The former two both ended up winning, but the Falcons were beaten outright, although all three made so many mistakes that prevented them getting over the numbers set.

Sam Darnold didn't throw one, or two Interceptions inside the Red Zone, but three of those in what ended up being a five point win to miss the cover by just three points.

And the less said about the San Francisco and Atlanta kickers the better with both combining to miss multiple efforts from reasonable distance to the point that even Deebo Samuel decided to let Jake Moody know what he thought of his efforts. These are kicks that really won't be missed too often and on another day all three teams would have returned winners, so it is best not to move too far away from what has been successful so far this season.

Kickers proved to be the difference makers for Kansas City too as the last unbeaten team of the season moved through another week after the Special Teams blocked Denver's chip shot Field Goal to win the game in Week 10.

Maintaining that unbeaten run through Week 11 looks to be a huge test for Kansas City when they visit the Buffalo Bills in what many feel could be a game that ends up being replayed to decide the Super Bowl participant from the AFC.

This is the standout game of Week 11, especially on Sunday, but there are other big games beginning with a top looking NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football with the lead of the Division on the line. Moving into November means the intensity is picking up and Thanksgiving is now a couple of weeks away, which usually signals the turn into the home run for those hoping to have extended post-season runs.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Week 11 begins with a big NFC East game featuring the top two teams in the Division on Thursday Night Football.

In reality, it would be a huge disappointment if both the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3) were not able to secure enough wins to earn a place in the post-season, although there is also little doubt that winning the Division would be a huge boost towards having a deep Playoff run.

It is the Philadelphia Eagles who continue to produce wins, despite the noise around the team- the fans have simply been on edge far too much this season and Head Coach Nick Sirianni may feel that he has to win the Super Bowl if he is going to be retained in the job, which really does not help.

Despite that, Sirianni has led the Philadelphia Eagles to the top of the Division after a crushing win over the injury hit Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 and that makes it five wins in a row for the Eagles. In reality, we can't really know too much about Philadelphia considering who they have beaten this season, although the thumping of the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago looks the most impressive.

Washington were beaten on Sunday by the Pittsburgh Steelers and like the Eagles, the schedule has not exactly been the most taxing. There is no doubting the improvement with Jayden Daniels leading the team at Quarter Back, but the Commanders's best win came early in the season at the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals and they have struggled to beat too many good teams since then.

This is a real prove it moment for the rookie Quarter Back and the rest of the team with Washington playing on the short week and looking to reclaim top place in the NFC East.

The Commanders will be hoping Brian Robinson Jr is able to suit up having struggled to really get the ground going as it had been earlier in the season. Jayden Daniels is another threat when it comes to running the ball, but the Commanders will need all of their weapons in their bid to break down a Philadelphia Defensive Line that have really taken pride in clamping down up front.

We have seen enough from the rookie Quarter Back to expect him to make some big plays and extend drives on the ground or through the air. Jayden Daniels is facing one of the Defensive units in really good form though and he did have some issues when facing the Pittsburgh Defensive unit last week, which suggests this could be another challenging night for him.

Jayden Daniels has been well protected in the main part, especially with his capabilities of shifting the pocket, and that should help as he looks to find holes in this improving Philadelphia Secondary. It is very important for the Commanders to establish the run and see if that can open up things down the field, but overall it looks another tough match up for Washington after the tough test faced in Week 10.

At the same time, Philadelphia have to be expecting a lot more resistance from Washington than they ended up getting from Divisional rivals Dallas last Sunday. However, Nick Sirianni has to be very pleased with what he has been seeing Offensively with the team really looking a lot more confident now they have someone like Saquon Barkley running the ball as efficiently as he has been.

While there are some doubts about what Washington are going to be able to do on the ground, the same may not be true for the Eagles. The Philadelphia Offensive Line have been cracking open some big lanes for Barkley, while Jalen Hurts continues to offer a threat to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and this is going to be a massive test for Washington's Defensive Line.

Throughout the course of the season, the Commanders have had some issues shutting down the run and recent outings have not been any different.

It should mean Philadelphia are playing in a comfortable down and distance, which will open up the playbook and the Washington Secondary may be without Marshon Lattimore again after his trade from the New Orleans Saints. The passing numbers have not looked so bad, but that may be down to the fact that teams are capable of running the ball very well against the Commanders.

They will also be dealing with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on Thursday Night Football, as well as trying to contain Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground and that balance is going to give the Philadelphia Eagles the edge in this Divisional game.

Going against Jayden Daniels, even as a rookie, is not easy considering his ability to make big plays and the backdoor cover is open, even in a losing effort. However, Washington were beaten by a Touchdown at Baltimore and were blown out at Tampa Bay, while they were pretty much second best in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.

A short week is a new test for the rookie Quarter Back and the Eagles are playing very well Defensively, which should mean there is enough room for the talented playmakers to win this game and cover the mark set.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It is the quirkiness of the regular season schedule that AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) have yet to play any of their six Divisional games in 2024. That does mean six of the remaining eight games will be against those opponents, but the foundation laid down by the Steelers means that they could kick on and win the Division.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin gave a reporter short shrift when questioned about the schedule and made it clear his Pittsburgh team are always ready to face those within the Division no matter where the NFL places them during the eighteen week regular season.

Four wins in a row have really pushed the momentum behind the Steelers, although the teams beaten are perhaps not amongst those that will be hoping to reach the Super Bowl.

In Week 11, that changes significantly when the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) come to town having swept the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024 thanks to a narrow win on Thursday Night Football. It means the Ravens have had something of a mini-Bye, which is important for a team that doesn't have the official Bye Week until early December.

The extra preparation time is going to be important with Baltimore hoping to turn things around in this series with their big rivals in Pittsburgh. Despite the recent seasons seeing Baltimore more likely to push towards a Super Bowl, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who have won seven of eight games against this Divisional rival, including sweeping them in 2023.

However, the one exception in that run was a Baltimore win here in Pittsburgh two seasons ago and the road team do look the superior of the two.

It hasn't counted for much in the recent head to head, but this time the Ravens will be bringing Derrick Henry to town and that could be important in just shifting things around. The Ravens have been able to run very well under John Harbaugh, but the Offensive Line this season is boosted by the power of Henry in the backfield behind Lamar Jackson and that is going to be really important as they look for the road win to move ahead of the Steelers in the Division race.

As is the case with a lot of Divisional rivals, teams are built to stop the others doing what they want to do the most and the Steelers have long prided themselves on being a team that can stop the run. For much of the season they have been strong up front, but during this four game winning run, there have been one or two missed assignments and that would be a massive mistake against this Baltimore Offensive Line.

Lamar Jackson's dual-threat has always been something for the Steelers to focus on, but it is much more difficult knowing a power Back like Derrick Henry could be given the ball. Some may have thought his race had been run in Tennessee, but Henry has shown there is plenty left in the tank and the late Bye Week for the Baltimore Ravens could be crucial for how effective the Running Back remains to be in January and beyond.

We should see Baltimore have success on the ground and that should mean Lamar Jackson has a more comfortable day finding his Wide Receiver options. Diontae Johnson will certainy want to remind Pittsburgh of what was let go having arrived in Baltimore in a trade from the Carolina Panthers, but there are plenty of other weapons around him which will give Jackson an opportunity to have a decent passing day.

Being ahead of the chains should mean Lamar Jackson has time to move the pocket and then attack this Pittsburgh Secondary, which has allowed some solid passing numbers in recent outings.

Games between the Ravens and Steelers have tended to be very low-scoring and there has been fewer than 31 points combined in each of the last five games played.

However, there is a feeling that this one will be quite different with Baltimore likely going to be moving the ball with some consistency, but Pittsburgh also looking a lot more effective since Russell Wilson took over from Justin Fields at Quarter Back.

The difference between the two teams might be at the Line of Scrimmage with the Ravens Defensive Line continuing to clamp down on the run very effectively. This may make things very tough for Najee Harris, especially as Pittsburgh have not really been a team that has ripped off big runs consistently this season, and it may mean Russell Wilson is having to make more plays with his arm.

The Quarter Back is likely going to be faced with some pass rush pressure, but Wilson should also have some success against a Baltimore Secondary that continues to struggle against the pass. There is little doubt that this could be the weakness that eventually costs them a chance to win a Super Bowl, and even as Baltimore get healthier, it is an issue that will need to be addressed when the Bye Week comes around.

Russell Wilson has Receivers who can get open and make plays for him down the field, but being a little more unbalanced Offensively compared with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could prove to be the difference between the teams on the day.

These are always going to be tough, grind it out games, but the feeling is that we could see more successful passes than usual and both Quarter Backs may have decent stat lines. However, the edge has to be with Baltimore to snap the three game losing run in the Series with the Offensive Line likely to offer out more solid runs compared with the Pittsburgh O-Line and the Ravens can do enough to win this one by around a Touchdown.

It will need the Defensive unit to make a late stand to do that, but they have been able to find those plays at significant times through the course of the season and another on Sunday may lead to a big road win for Baltimore.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Interceptions piled up for Jared Goff last week in a primetime spot, but the Detroit Lions (8-1) rallied for their Quarter Back and made some big Defensive plays to turn things around at the Houston Texans. They continue their path through the AFC South with another non-Conference game in Week 11, and it feels like a big chance for Goff to bounce back.

Instead of a match up against Trevor Lawrence, the Detroit Lions will be facing a Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) team led by Mac Jones at Quarter Back. He was behind Center for the narrow loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week, but Jones will have to be a lot better in this game unless he wants to lean on the Defensive unit to make massive plays to keep the Jaguars competitive.

The Offensive stats made for poor reading, but the Jaguars Defensive unit stepped up and picked up a couple of key Interceptions in the End Zone against the Minnesota Vikings. They were able to keep that NFC North Offensive unit from scoring a Touchdown, but the game was in Jacksonville and it is going to be much tougher indoors against this Detroit team looking to make amends for what was an underwhelming performance in Houston.

Winning might be what matters most, but Head Coach Dan Campbell and Quarter Back Jared Goff have set certain levels of standard here.

In reality, it may not be a game in which the Lions need their Quarter Back to dominate with the Offensive Line paving the way for the two quality Running Backs to pick up big yardage on the ground. This is going to be an area where the Lions should be able to hand off the ball for some big gains and that should ensure the team is playing out of third and manageable for much of the game.

Of course Jared Goff will want to erase the memories of the performance on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, but having the team run the ball will open things up in the passing lane for the Quarter Back to have the successes he wants. He will be without Sam LaPorta for this game, but Detroit have other weapons and they should be capable of moving the ball up and down the field.

Covering the spread will come down to how well the Lions do Defensively and they will certainly believe they can feast on Mac Jones, who barely helped the Jaguars move the ball last week.

The Lions might not be as dominant as the Minnesota Vikings have been at times, but this is a team that is very good at slowing down the run and allowing a ball-hawking Secondary to take over and create turnovers. Tank Bigsby will be missing for the Jaguars, who have a struggling Offensive Line, and it might mean the road team have to really focus on trying to get Mac Jones going.

He can have some success throwing against a Secondary that has a bend, don't break kind of approach, but Mac Jones could have a banged up Receiving corps travelling to Detroit with him. It will make it that much tougher for the Quarter Back and the Lions might just be ready to make the plays that help them pull away for a big win at home.

The last time Detroit played at home, they crushed Tennessee from the AFC South and the feeling is that this big line will still not be enough to prevent the Lions produce a dominant win both outright and at the window.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: At one stage people were wondering whether the NFC North could potentially be the first Division to provide four Playoff teams, but those thoughts have disappeared over the last month. The top three are all looking like they are moving in the right direction, but the Chicago Bears (4-6) have lost three in a row and simply not recovered from the Hail Mary throw converted by the Washington Commanders, which will be replayed for years to come.

Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chicago Bears have yet to play a Divisional rival and you can understand why the team have decided that some changes need to be made.

The first NFC North team that the Bears will face on their schedule is the Green Bay Packers (6-3), who are coming into this one out of a Bye Week which should have given key players a chance to rest. The most notable to earn that rest should be Jordan Love with the Quarter Back looking a little limited in his movement and the Packers feel Love is going to be close to full health for the big run coming up.

Two weeks ago, Green Bay saw their four game winning run ended by the Detroit Lions, but they remain in contention in the NFC North and in the Wild Card Race too.

Josh Jacobs has come into the Packers lineup in place of Aaron Jones and he has looked like he has been a part of the Green Bay teams for several years. The Offensive Line continue to bully teams up front and Jacobs should be able to pick up right where he left off before the Bye Week when facing a Chicago Defensive Line struggling to stop the run.

This should be music to the ears of Jordan Love who can work his way into the game and try and hurt a Bears Secondary that has been having health issues. With the Receivers available to Jordan Love, playing from third and manageable could set Chicago up for some big plays down the field, which is something the Packers love to bring onto the field.

Green Bay have dominated this Divisional series and have won ten in a row against the Bears and it is hard to imagine that streak is broken at Soldier Field.

After losing last week and scoring just three points, Chicago have changed Offensive Co-Ordinator in a hope of sparking things for Caleb Williams. The Head Coach, Matt Eberflus has to be on the very hot seat at this point with the fans turning on him again, and it is going to be difficult for the Bears to find consistency on this side of the ball.

Caleb Williams has hit a rookie wall, but he is getting very little time in the pocket with the Offensive Line looking more like a turnstile, and it is going to be very difficult to play from behind. The Bears might have hoped they can at least run the ball to give the Packers something to think about, but Green Bay's Defensive Line have played pretty well going into the Bye Week and they will certainly want to dare Williams to beat them.

Throwing against this Green Bay Secondary is fraught with danger anyway, never mind when a Quarter Back is under immense heat from the pass rush every time he steps back to throw the ball. That is the situation for Caleb Williams, who looked lost in the defeat to New England in Week 10 and it is very difficult to imagine this changing too much.

In recent years the Packers have not only beaten the Chicago Bears, but dominated within games and this team coming in off a Bye Week have to believe they can do the same. Jordan Love will want to show he is healthy and ready to take the Green Bay Packers forward after the successful end to 2023, and the road team can win and cover here.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It has been an inconsistent first half of the season for many in the NFC West, but the important note is that all four teams are within touching distance of one another in a Divisional race that should go right down to the final week. Divisional games become that much more important with that in mind and the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) have dominated this series as they look to complete a sweep.

It has been a little over a month since the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) were beaten at home by the San Francisco 49ers, but they are facing them out of a Bye Week. Five losses in six games has seen the Seahawks slump below 0.500 and it is very important to turn things around considering Seattle are already 0-2 within the Division.

Having the Bye Week will have allowed Seattle to get some bodies back, but they have lost Connor Williams on the Offensive Line after he decided to retire unexpectedly. This is going to make things a bit more challenging considering the issues Seattle were having when trying to establish the run going into the Bye, while Williams being the Center will be a big loss for the passing game too.

Running the ball has been a problem for the Seahawks in recent games and they cannot expect to have a lot of success in this one against a tough San Francisco Defensive Line. That only places more pressure on the shoulders of Geno Smith at Quarter Back, who has not really had many clean pockets to operate from of late and now is going to have perhaps a couple of inexperienced players on the Line.

His numbers are still decent enough and DK Metcalf is a big threat, but Smith is going to have some challenges throwing against the 49ers Secondary if the pass rush is getting close to him. Add in the fact that the 49ers have picked up their level defending the pass and have players willing to take the risks to step in front of passes, and it could be a tough day for Geno Smith against a team that has beaten Seattle in six straight NFC West games.

The 49ers returned from their own Bye Week to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, but it was important to also have Christian McCaffrey back from an injury that has kept him out all season. It gives San Francisco another crease to their Offensive play-calling, and only poor kicking made that win over the Buccaneers much closer on the scoreboard than it actually should have been.

No one is expecting Christian McCaffrey to dominate from the off, but he is a threat as a catcher as much as a runner and that gives opponents pause for thought. There is every chance he can have a big impact on the ground against this Seattle Defensive Line, which will just open things up for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

Tyrel Dodson was the Seattle leading tackler before surprisingly being let go and that is not going to help the Seahawks either against the run or the pass.

Brock Purdy should have enough Receiving weapons to spread the ball around and dissect the Seattle Secondary, especially with the Offense likely to be in third and manageable spots. He should have time when he does step back to throw the ball, although Brock Purdy will just want to clean up some of the mistakes to make sure his team are in control of this game.

In the six game winning run, Seattle have not been able to get closer than 8 points to the San Francisco and it might be tougher to do a lot better than that. The 49ers have the balance Offensively that may just see them have too much for a Divisional rival that may struggle to run the ball and it could end up seeing San Francisco come through with a solid win and a cover of this mark.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 10 Picks 2024 (Thursday 7th November-Monday 11th November)

We don't really have the kind of blockbuster moves at the trade deadline in the NFL as you can get with the other US sports, but it is still a good time to assess the potential of teams and, more importantly, what teams believe they are capable of achieving.

With that in mind, some of the top NFL teams have made moves to strengthen their prospects for January and February and the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions look poised for big things.

However, if there is one thing we know about the NFL, it is that nothing is decided in November and there are always teams capable of getting very hot in December and rolling right through to a Super Bowl win. Despite all of the naysayers and some of the boo birds that seem to be accompanying every game they play, the Philadelphia Eagles are moving into a dangerous position to make a run as long as they can stay healthy.

Teams like Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco will have plenty of supporters behind them, although the lack of experience around Washington perhaps means we are yet to learn how far the Commanders can go. Two games with the Eagles in the NFC East will certainly paint a better picture about their prospects and there are some teams that have not been mentioned that have every reason to believe in their own capabilities having set a solid foundation from the first half of the season.

The Week 9 NFL Picks returned a very slight positive number, but it is a positive number and secures a really productive first half of the 2024 season.

As well as things have gone, it is very easy for fortune to turn and so it is key to not get carried away and to maintain some focus in the weeks ahead.

At the moment the tighter selection process has worked out well, but focusing on moving forward and not getting too far ahead of myself is the key to ensure another winning season from the sport. The NFL can be a very erratic League at times and spreads are being put together by very smart people, so it is a good start, but only a start.

In Week 10 we do have a selection from Thursday Night Football as two AFC North teams face off for the second time this season and further Picks will be added to this thread.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Cleveland Browns look like they are out of contention in the AFC North, but the other three teams in the Division have made moves before the trade deadline, which suggest they are looking to have an impact in the Playoffs in January.

Two of those teams face each other on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 of the 2024 season and it is the second time the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will face off. The Ravens won in Overtime when visiting the Bengals in what was a really fun game, but one that Cincinnati will feel they lost rather than the Ravens won.

Baltimore may have a different kind of mind towards that, and Lamar Jackson has continued his recent dominance of this Divisional rival. Sweeping the season series would likely have the Ravens feeling they cannot finish behind the Bengals in the standings and would make up for the disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Both of these teams put up 41 points in victories in Week 9 as they prepare for a short week, although one in which both Baltimore and Cincinnati will be pretty familiar with what the other wants to do.

Ultimately it then comes down to which of the two teams can impose their will on the other a bit more effectively and the balance of this Baltimore Offensive unit makes them very, very dangerous. Head Coach John Harbaugh has been praising the impact of Derrick Henry and feels the Ravens are considerably more dangerous with a Running Back of that elite level compared to where they have been previously.

Derrick Henry was contained to some extent in the win over Cincinnati earlier in the season... That is until he ripped off a huge run that set up the victory for the Ravens! In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well, so they may have some early success when it comes to hitting Henry, although the fact that Lamar Jackson is also very capable of moving the ball with his legs will just keep the Bengals guessing.

It was actually Lamar Jackson's arm that impressed most in the win over the Bengals on the road and 4 Touchdown passes with almost 350 passing yards kept Baltimore battling before coming through in Overtime. Diontae Johnson may have more of an impact in this one having arrived in a trade from the Carolina Panthers and failing to earn a catch in Week 9, while Jackson could have yet another strong showing against this Bengals Defensive unit.

Joe Burrow actually played better than Lamar Jackson in the first meeting having compiled almost 400 passing yards and with 5 Touchdown passes. However, it was his late Interception that proved costly with the Bengals driving deep into Baltimore territory and when already holding a 3 point lead.

He would love to have that back, but Burrow could pick up from where he left off against this Ravens Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It will be down to the Quarter Back considering the issues the Bengals have in establishing the run and the Ravens Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball.

Having a returning Tee Higgins would help, while it feels very important to have Orlando Brown Jr back at Left Tackle- out of the two, Brown Jr is perhaps more likely to suit up and that will be important to try and keep the pocket clean for their Quarter Back, especially if he does not have his full complement of Receiving options.

You still have to believe Joe Burrow will make some big plays, but the pressure will be on without a running game and with Ja'Marr Chase perhaps having a few more eyes focused on him without Tee Higgins.

Facing a relentless Baltimore team, the pressure could force Burrow into an errant throw, and that may end up turning the game in favour of the hosts.

Lamar Jackson has dominated this Divisional rival and there is every chance the Ravens have a big enough lead to avoid the backdoor cover when all is said and done on Thursday Night Football.

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants Pick: Both teams look certain to miss the Playoffs again and there are likely going to be big changes at the end of this season for the New York Giants (2-7). A bit more patience may be needed with the Carolina Panthers (2-7), who won in Week 9 to at least give themselves a boost as the two teams head to Munich for the last NFL game to be played on European soil until 2025.

With both teams sharing the same record, some will feel it is a real surprise to have the New York Giants down as a big favourite, but there is a reason that is the case.

The Giants have lost four in a row, but those have been against the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders. Only the Bengals have a losing record right now of those four teams, but there is every chance they will rally to become a Playoff team, while the other three teams all look on course to reach the post-season.

Keeping that in mind, it does mean the Giants have perhaps been a victim of the schedule as much as their own poor Offensive play and this is a big opportunity for Daniel Jones against a much weaker Defensive unit than he has face for a while.

Losing Saquon Barkley in the off-season looks a worse decision when seeing what he is doing with NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Giants Offensive Line have still been able to open up some solid running lanes. Tyrone Tracy Jr has benefited and he should be able to put up some decent numbers on the ground in this one, while Daniel Jones is also capable of moving the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position.

It should mean the Giants are playing out of third and manageable spots on the field, while this may be a rare game in which the New York Offensive Line is able to give Daniel Jones some time in the pocket. Running the ball has not been a problem, but the pass protection has not played up to the same level, although in this game in Munich they are facing a Panthers team that have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back with any consistency.

Daniel Jones will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if he and Tracy Jr can pound the rock on the ground, and the Quarter Back does have some Receivers who can create space against this Carolina Secondary.

Covering a big number like this one is about scoring points, which has been an issue for the Giants, but they may feel that they can protect those points that they are able to produce on the scoreboard. The New York Defensive unit has played much better than the other side of the ball and they will feel they match up pretty well with this Carolina Offensive unit that has Bryce Young starting at Quarter Back.

It has been possible to run the ball against the New York Giants, but it may not be as easy for a banged up Carolina Offensive Line to create the holes that others have been able to do. Chuba Hubbard looked in good form in the Week 9 win over the New Orleans Saints to snap out of something of a funk, although the game plan for the Giants may be to play up closer to the Line of Scrimmage and see if Bryce Young can beat them through the air.

The Giants Secondary have actually played pretty well so they will be confident, especially with the Panthers short in the Receiving corps. There is still an inconsistency about Bryce Young, while the Giants have a pass rush that could have the Quarter Back scrambling around for time in the pocket.

Throwing Interceptions continues to be an issue for Bryce Young and the feeling is that the New York Giants can make enough plays on this side of the ball to move into a position to win and cover. Backing bad teams to win games by comfortable margins is something that I have looked to avoid this season, but this is a spot where the New York Giants may just take advantage of a Panthers team that put in a lot to beat a Divisional rival in Week 9.

New York match up pretty well on both sides of the ball with what they are going to be facing and Daniel Jones can just ease the pressure and talk around his future by helping the Giants to a solid win in Germany before heading into their Bye Week.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: After two weeks and with 91 points scored, the New Orleans Saints (2-7) could not have imagined where they would be at the halfway mark of the 2024 season.

Seven straight injuries have ended with Head Coach Dennis Allen fired and the Saints have traded away Marshon Lattimore. Instead of thinking about the Playoffs, the New Orleans Saints might already be considering their Draft Position for next year as injuries have piled up throughout the roster.

Next up is the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) who have taken control of the NFC South.

This is what was expected from the Falcons after bringing in Kirk Cousins as the starting Quarter Back and five wins in six games have given the team a real lift. Winning in Week 10 would push the Falcons to 5-0 within the NFC South and it would mean they are also a considerable way to securing at least one home Playoff game in January.

It is never the best position to be siding with the public when they are pumping a road favourite as much as they are with the Falcons in Week 10, but there looks to be a considerable advantage for the road team who will enjoy playing under the Dome.

Derek Carr has returned at Quarter Back for the Saints, but he was not able to inspire a win at the Carolina Panthers and was heavily criticised for a pass that left Chris Olave out to dry. The concussion suffered by the young Receiver has ruled him out this game and New Orleans will have to lean on their Offensive Line to try and keep themselves in front of the chains.

This should be possible against the Falcons Defensive Line, while Derek Carr may be offered more protection than any New Orleans Quarter Back has been used to. One of the problems for the Falcons is having a Defensive unit that has struggled to make consistent stops, and that will need to be improved if they want to have a deep run in the post-season, but it is also going to be challenging for New Orleans with the injuries to keep things ticking over.

An interim Head Coach has inspired teams to big performances and there is no doubt that the Falcons are expecting that to happen.

However, the New Orleans Defensive unit has been hurt badly with injuries restricting their ability to make plays and you have to believe Kirk Cousins can expose the holes that have been evident.

The Falcons should find an easy balance on the Offensive side of the ball and it will be very tough for New Orleans to prevent the road team from moving up and down the field. Kirk Cousins can lean on the running game behind the Offensive Line, while there is a chance that Drake London will be back to just offer another Receiving threat for the Quarter Back to utilise.

When these teams met back in September, the Falcons were perhaps fortunate to come away with a win, but the teams have moved in vastly different directions since then. Despite the firing of their Head Coach and the expected reaction to that, the Saints made moves ahead of the trade deadline that may have all feeling that 2025 is already the focus and the Atlanta Falcons may just have too much scoring power for an injury hit New Orleans team to do with.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They are fortunate to be playing in the relatively weak looking NFC West and the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) will come out of their Bye Week with Christian McCaffrey ready to return. Injuries have perhaps restricted the 49ers and prevented them from building the momentum to really take control of the Division, and there is a slight concern at being 1-2 against NFC West opponents, but more is expected from San Francisco going forward.

Travelling across the country for a 1pm Eastern Time kick off is not ideal, especially with a Divisional rival next up, but the Bye should mean the 49ers are ready.

Add to that the fact they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) who have been seriously hurt by injuries to key players and who have lost three in a row.

Baker Mayfield is still playing pretty well at Quarter Back, but losing Chris Godwin for the season and having Mike Evans on the sidelines recovering from a hamstring issue is a real blow for the team. Despite that, Mayfield and the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points to at least remain competitive, although the Defensive unit have not been able to create the stops that may have turned momentum.

Earlier in the season the Buccaneers may have actually been able to establish the run with some consistency to help the Quarter Back, but that may not be as easy against a fresher San Francisco Defensive Line. They actually went into the Bye Week playing better at the Line of Scrimmage and there is a feeling that the 49ers can make sure they control things up front knowing there are backups playing for the Buccaneers in the Wide Receiver positions.

The Quarter Back has maintained some strong numbers and the Offensive plans have given the Buccaneers a chance, and that has to be respected here. The Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have been solid enough in pass protection to deserve plenty of respect too so there is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to at least put up enough points for Tampa Bay to believe they can win as the home underdog.

However, the question really is whether the Defensive unit can step up for the Buccaneers and that is perhaps asking a bit too much of the current team from what we have seen in recent games.

Even without the threat of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers Offensive Line have really been bullying teams up front and they are likely going to establish the run with a lot more consistency than their hosts. It has been a problem for the Buccaneers during their three game losing run, while the return of Christian McCaffrey also offers Brock Purdy another Receiving threat capable of picking up a lot of yards after the catch.

Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, although Brock Purdy could benefit from the like of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel having a Bye Week to just get through some of the injuries and illnesses that had been holding them back. With the main Running Back, the 49ers will be that much more dangerous and that should mean Brock Purdy can run the Offensive unit as he wants.

The 49ers Offensive Line have offered plenty of protection for Purdy, who is also going to get the ball out of his hands pretty quickly, and it should mean San Francisco are moving the ball efficiently.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the way the Buccaneers have continued to play through adversity, but the 49ers are fresh and this is a short week for Tampa Bay having put so much into an Overtime loss on Monday Night Football at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9.

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: They may feel there is plenty of room for improvement after the Week 9 win against the Indianapolis Colts, but it is much easier to deal with that after putting a victory together. Snapping a two game losing run will have the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) feeling better, although it does mean they are behind the Detroit Lions in what is a very competitive NFC North Division.

The focus has to be on their own performances and the Vikings will be looking to push their way into the Playoffs at the end of this season, either as a Divisional Champion or as a dangerous Wild Card team.

This looks a good chance to back up the win over one AFC South when facing another and that is because the hosts Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) are expected to go into Week 10 without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. To make matters even tougher, the Receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries and it is going to be a big challenge for backup CJ Beathard to help his team move the ball with any consistency.

Jacksonville might have lost their last two games, but they have been a lot more competitive since the embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears in London. However, doing the same without Trevor Lawrence is going to be very difficult and especially with this Minnesota Vikings team in front of a backup that may not always see what is coming.

If they could run the ball and take the pressure away from CJ Beathard, it would help, but that is not likely going to be the case for the Jaguars. Instead the Quarter Back could be forced to throw from third and long spots, while trying to work out where Brian Flores is sending the pressure from.

It is a bend, don't break kind of Secondary, but unlikely that CJ Beathard is going to have a lot of consistent success if the likes of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr are not able to go. Christian Kirk has been ruled out for the season and all in all, this looks like it could be a long day Offensively for a team that is struggling.

Playing out of a primetime spot and having a big Divisional game up next does make this an awkward spot for the Minnesota Vikings. However, Sam Darnold is looking to just round into more consistent form again at Quarter Back and he should be able to offer the Vikings plenty of balance on the Offensive side of the ball.

Aaron Jones has arrived from rivals Green Bay and has shown there is still plenty in the tank as far as the Running Back is concerned and he is playing behind a Minnesota Offensive Line which has been capable of opening up some strong lanes for him. This has really helped Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, although Darnold has admitted he needs to be a bit more careful with the ball as Interceptions have perhaps become too frequent for his and his Head Coach's liking.

Pressure around him has not helped, but Sam Darnold should have a cleaner pocket with the team operating in third and manageable, while the play-action will open up if the Vikings are running the ball as expected. There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that can be exploited, and Sam Darnold is fortunate to be playing with some big time Receivers and it should allow Minnesota to pull clear.

If Trevor Lawrence was going to suit up, the Jaguars would have the potential for a backdoor cover, but that is all the more difficult with CJ Beathard behind Center.

The schedule spot is far from ideal, but the Vikings can get the better of another AFC South team and earn another cover on their way to a seventh win of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It doesn't feel that long ago that the NFC East might have been considered the best Division in the NFL, but that is not the case in 2024.

Even then, it looks like on that could potentially be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs in the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2). Despite the noise coming down from the stands and some of the criticism in the media, Head Coach Nick Sirianni has guided the Eagles just behind the Commanders in the Division and with a big game coming up between the top two teams in the NFC East in Week 11.

It is a game to be played on Thursday Night Football so there is a slight concern that the Eagles could be looking past the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) who are going to be without Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.

A third loss in a row has dropped the Cowboys to a couple of games below 0.500 and Mike McCarthy has to be feeling his seat heating up day by day as the Head Coach. In reality Jerry Jones should be taking plenty of the 'credit' for the way this season has developed, but the axe will fall on the Head Coach who was perhaps fortunate to remain in charge ahead of the 2024 season.

Dak Prescott is out, but Cooper Rush will come in as backup with a 5-1 record as a starter in relief, although he is not going to be benefit from a lot of support around him. In previous outings, Rush might have leaned on the Dallas Offensive Line, but they have struggled to establish the run this season and the improving Philadelphia Defensive Line may be extra keen to clamp down up front and see if Cooper Rush can beat them through the air.

Another issue for the Offensive Line, which is banged up, is that they have not really offered much protection for Dak Prescott and that is unlikely to improve for their backup Quarter Back. The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush could cause massive problems for Rush every time he steps back to throw, especially when stuck in third and long spots, and that pressure up front has certainly allowed the Eagles Secondary to make some big plays.

The experience of Cooper Rush as a starter will at least help, but it looks a good opportunity for the Eagles to make enough big plays on this side of the ball to set things up for their Offensive unit to pull away for an impressive win.

Much like others have managed this season, the Eagles will look to the Offensive Line to just push Dallas around up front and a number of Running Backs have had big outings against the Cowboys already. His personal record against Dallas has been disappointing from his time with the New York Giants, but Saquon Barkley can finally get the better of the team as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Some may have thought Barkley was not worth bringing in, but he has been a key part of this Eagles Offensive unit and can have a very strong outing.

Last weekend the Head Coach would have been criticised for some of the bizarre play-calling for the Eagles when in fourth and inches, but his team still managed to win for a fourth time in a row. Saquon Barkley has just taken some of the pressure away from Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are also available, who also benefit from the running game being as productive as it has been.

The Cowboys have gotten some pressure up front and that pass rush could be boosted by a returning Micah Parsons, although they will need to find a way to contain Saquon Barkley to really have an opportunity to get after the Quarter Back.

With Kellen Moore at Offensive Co-Ordinator, there is going to be motivation from the Eagles to try and really and give the former Dallas Co-Ordinator a boost. That could mean attempting to run up the score here and Philadelphia could really get one over on their Divisional rival with a strong win on the road.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: If it was possible, the NFL may have seen this Monday Night Football flexed out of the spot, but it will be the Miami Dolphins (2-6) heading West to take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4).

It is the Rams who are entrenched in a Divisional battle with the NFC West congested, but the season for the Dolphins has been difficult to say the least. There is still a hope that things can turn around for Miami, who have already faced Buffalo twice, but they have lost a couple of close games since Tua Tagovailoa has been able to return at Quarter Back and need to start changing that narrative if they are going to work their way into the post-season.

At this point of the season, Miami's margin for error is almost down to zero with the expectation being fewer than nine wins will not be good enough.

They have looked better Offensively with their starting Quarter Back behind Center, and there is an expectation for Miami to maintain that push on this side of the ball. The Rams have won three in a row, which perhaps was a factor in keeping the core of the roster together through the trade deadline, but they are still a team that can give up some big plays.

During this winning run, the Rams Defensive Line have clamped down on the run, but that is not going to be as easy against a Miami team with big Offensive weapons. Mike McDaniel will always feel that the run can open up the big passing lanes down the field and he will not lose faith in what the Dolphins can do on the ground having seen some consistent performances from his Running Back and Offensive Line.

The Miami Offensive Line have offered some solid protection for their Quarter Back and this is going to be a key part of the game as they look to just ease the Los Angeles pass rush. Running the ball will help and Tua Tagovailoa can employ his Running Backs as catchers out of the backfield, which will just keep the Rams guessing and open up opportunities against this Secondary.

There is every chance that this will be an exciting primetime game considering the challenges that Miami will face when Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the ball.

Injuries have just cleared up for the Rams, which has really given Stafford the chance to lead his team forward, and the veteran Quarter Back will have his top Receivers on the field who are very capable of finding the spaces in the Secondary to exploit.

Running the ball might be more challenging for the Rams, even with Kyren Williams continuing to impress out of the backfield. However, Matthew Stafford is more than capable of leading the Rams forward and he, and his Receivers, can put the Rams into a position to win the game.

With a limited pass rush, Miami will give Matthew Stafford time in the pocket and that should mean both teams are capable of moving the ball and scoring points.

A shoot out would not be a surprise considering the issues in the Secondaries and the Offensive-minded Head Coaches prowling the sidelines and that is the lean for this Monday Night Football game. It is a big number, but the conditions should be comfortable for the Quarter Backs taking to the field and some quick strikes may be produced to help take the game over the line set.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams-Miami Dolphins Over 48.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2024 (Thursday 31st October-Monday 4th November)

Week 9 is on the board and that means we are halfway through the regular season and teams are beginning to be 'who we think they are'.

The trade deadline is fast approaching and so we are at a time in the season when teams have to decide whether they genuinely believe they can reach the Playoffs or not. Some will be thinking to next season and others will still feel that a positive run can move them into a position to play Football deep into January, although the internal thoughts of each team will become clearer at the trade deadline.

The 1972 Miami Dolphins are still waiting to crack the champagne for being the only unbeaten team in NFL history with the Kansas City Chiefs at 7-0, but surprisingly there are only six others teams in the AFC that have a winning record.

On the flip-side, only five teams in the NFC have a losing record as we move into the halfway mark of the season and so there is still a feeling that all is to play for as we approach November.

Eight weeks are in the books and seven of those have returned a profit after the 4-2 mark last week.

I had fortune- the Chicago Bears must still be wondering how they are were beaten by the Washington Commanders after one of the most ridiculous of Hail Mary's was completed. That ensured a 4-2 record for the Week 8 Picks rather than a 3-3 mark, but it is very unlikely that we are going to have that kind of luck every week.

Jordan Love's injury prevented Green Bay from covering when in a strong position against the Jacksonville Jaguars so maybe that bit of fortune was deserved. However, it will be all the better if selections made can produce winning marks without having to go through another Hail Mary play and keeping the winning mark going is the only ambition for these pages.

Thursday Night Football looks an interesting one in Week 9 before some big games to be played over the weekend as the clock turns to November. Picks will be added to this thread in the coming days, but there is a selection from the first game of Week 9 and that will open up this thread.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets Pick: Fans of the New York Jets (2-6) were expecting vast improvements now they finally could look at their Quarter Back with a much higher degree of success than some of the others that have tried to make that position their own. Last season could be excused after Aaron Rodgers play just four snaps, but even the most pessimistic of Jets fans could not have anticipated that the first half of the 2024 season will have gone as poorly as it has.

Even a Head Coaching change has not prevented the Jets from losing for a fifth time in a row and there is plenty of criticism to go around.

Some of the wounds have been self-inflicted- the Jets lost by a point to the Denver Broncos, missed multiple Field Goals in a 3 point loss to the Buffalo Bills and gave up a late Touchdown to lose to the New England Patriots in Week 8. That doesn't mean that things are going to turn around quickly, but the Jets will feel their record could look a lot stronger than it does currently.

On a short week, the Jets host the Houston Texans (6-2) who have taken a big grip of the AFC South having beaten the Indianapolis Colts for a second time this season.

That is the positive news, but the negative is that Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury in that win and Houston will also be without Nico Collins for this game. CJ Stroud looks like one of the best young Quarter Backs making his way through the NFL, but it is no surprise that his passing numbers are down with the absences in the Receiver position.

It may be more of the same for Stroud in Week 9 against this New York Jets team that have a Secondary capable of making some big plays. They can perhaps chase CJ Stroud out of the pocket and force mistakes in the passing game, especially from lesser experienced Receivers, although it may make the game plan a little easier for the Houston Texans.

Joe Mixon has played well since arriving in Houston and he should be able to get something going on the ground against the Jets Defensive Line. That could be important in what may be a game that is about field position more than Touchdowns and will give Houston a chance.

However, the short week and the fact that Houston have taken complete control of their own Division may also be a factor to consider. This Texans team may be thinking about how they are going to replace Stefon Diggs rather than worrying about the struggling New York Jets and that could give Aaron Rodgers and company an opportunity.

Allan Lazard is missing for the Jets, but the overall Receiving corps look in decent shape, although there is a real pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

Much like the Texans, New York could lean on the Offensive Line and look to establish the run to put Rodgers in a good position to keep the chains moving. It will also be key to just slow down the Houston pass rush, which can be a highly disruptive force, and that may just give the Jets Quarter Back an opportunity to begin turning this season around.

Passing against this Secondary has not been easy and partly down the pass rush pressure that the Texans have put together, but that could be different for the Jets if they are running the ball well.

Even then, it is not easy to trust a New York team finding ways to lose games.

The spot looks a decent one for them and the injuries suffered by Houston may mean they may struggle on a short week and especially after taking control of their own Division. Aaron Rodgers is clearly not the player he once was, but he may be able to lean on the run and make enough plays to the likes of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson to help the Jets come away with a victory on Thursday Night Football and keep post-season hopes alive.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Pick: Backing the Washington Commanders (6-2) in Week 8 proved to be hugely fortunate as they converted a Hail Mary with time ticking off the clock to beat the Chicago Bears. In reality the Bears blew the assignment, but the Commanders will not care one bit as they continue to lead the NFC East.

They have recorded one win over the New York Giants (2-6) in 2024 and the sweep will keep some momentum behind the Commanders before heading into a tough stretch of games. The likes of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Dallas are on deck so it is very important to avoid dropping a game to a struggling Divisional rival playing on a short week.

New York did not play badly on Monday Night Football and it was a competitive loss, which is an improvement on the previous two blowouts. Despite that, it was a loss and this is a team that is spiralling again and likely going to be making big changes once the 2024 season comes to a close.

Motivation can be found in trying to play spoiler for teams within the Division so the players should be ready, even on the short week.

It helps the struggling Giants Offensive unit that they are facing a Washington team besieged by injury on the Defensive side of the ball. Problems along the Defensive Line have been evident all season and the Commanders have not really gotten a grip with slowing down the run, which is hugely important for Daniel Jones and the Giants.

The Quarter Back has the ability to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and the Giants have been able to find some solid gains on the ground even without Saquon Barkley. However, the problem has been when games get out of hand and they have to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling, which has left Daniel Jones in a tough position to make plays down the field.

His Receiving options are back at full strength, but Jones has been constantly harassed when he has stepped back to allow routes to develop. In recent games, the Commanders have found a decent pass rush, which in turn has helped elevate the play of the Secondary and also forced turnovers that could be critical to the outcome of the game.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back of their own has really propelled this Washington Offensive unit and Jayden Daniels will be bouncing after the fortune of last week. He is grounded enough to know the whole team will need to be better if they are going to achieve something special this season, but Daniels can lead the way on the ground to make things easier for himself in the passing game.

After what we have seen in recent games, the Giants Defensive Line may not be able to deal with Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler and it should mean Washington are playing in third and manageable spots for much of the afternoon. Jayden Daniels has shown his qualities as a passer too, but the reliance will be on the ground game to just ease the powerful New York pass rush and open things up against a Secondary that have actually played pretty well at times.

The big play will open up if Washington are pounding the rock as expected and it may lead to a solid win for the Commanders on the road.

Prior to the meeting in Week 2, Washington had not won any of four games against the Giants and has lost three in a row. They has over 100 more Offensive yards in the first meeting between the teams and the Commanders can back that up with a wider margin of victory than they achieved at home, while pushing the Giants that much further towards the top of the next Draft order.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Two AFC teams with the same record meet in Week 9 of the NFL season when the Baltimore Ravens (5-3) host the Denver Broncos (5-3). The Broncos have won two in a row, while the Baltimore Ravens had won five in a row before losing in Week 8 to the Cleveland Browns, although the Ravens are huge favourites to win this one.

For the second game in a row, the Ravens will be facing a tough Defensive unit and arguably one that is stronger than the Cleveland Browns unit they faced last time out.

Everything begins with the running game as far as Baltimore go Offensively, and there is no doubting the ability of both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry when it comes to pounding the rock. They have continued to pile up the yards on the ground, although they did surprisingly move away from those plays in the loss to the Cleveland Browns even when the game was competitive.

Moving the ball on the ground against the Denver Defensive Line is a different challenge and the battle on the Line of Scrimmage is going to be huge. In recent games, the Broncos have held opponents to less than 100 yards per game on the ground, although it has to be pointed out that Denver have faced nothing like the tandem that will be in front of them in Week 9.

It is important for Baltimore to run the ball if only to make sure Jackson is playing Quarter Back from third and manageable and to make sure the Denver pass rush is not breaking things up.

If he is given time, Lamar Jackson could make a few big plays into the Denver Secondary, but this Broncos team have to be confident in at least keeping things close on this side of the ball. This has been the game plan for Sean Payton and his team in compiling their winning record and they will not want rookie Bo Nix to have to have a huge day in a tough road environment.

Instead the key will be making sure Bo Nix knows he does not have to push the boat out in order to give his team the best chance to win. Keeping the scoreboard manageable is important to that end, especially as Denver may not be able to rely on their Offensive Line as much as they have in recent games.

Running the ball against the Baltimore Ravens is a huge challenge for any team and so Bo Nix may be forced to have to make a few big plays in the passing game to keep this one competitive. The Secondary is struggling with injuries so there is a chance that Nix can have some success, although the Quarter Back will have to be careful when it comes to turnovers.

If he can avoid those, Denver can keep this one closer than expected and avoid the blowout loss.

Opposing Baltimore proved to be a rough situation a couple of weeks ago when they crushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Broncos Defensive unit perhaps have a better chance of stalling some drives. This should at least give Sean Payton a chance to create some Offensive plans to help his rookie Quarter Back make enough plays through the air to help the Broncos remain competitive throughout.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The loss out of the Bye Week at the San Francisco 49ers has dropped the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders in the NFC East and a couple of games below 0.500 for the season. There is still time to turn things around, but the Cowboys need to change their fortunes pretty quickly and some of the players are showing their frustration to the media.

They will head to the Atlanta Falcons (5-3) who have taken control of the NFC South after sweeping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kirk Cousins has played well at times, but the Falcons will know that the veteran Quarter Back may need to improve if they are going to reach the post-season and then have a big impact in the Playoffs.

This should be a game in which the whole Falcons Offensive unit can find a very strong balance with their play-calling and that should keep drives moving forward. The Offensive Line should help establish the run against this struggling Cowboys Defensive Line and that should mean Kirk Cousins is able to drop back and make his plays to his big time Receivers.

Running the ball should also mean Cousins is playing from third and manageable spots, while keeping the pocket cleaner by needing less time for routes to develop. The Dallas Cowboys Secondary have had their own problems and Atlanta should be able to keep the chains moving and put up plenty of points.

However, there is every chance that Dallas can at least keep up for a while.

In previous seasons, Dallas might have dominated behind the Offensive Line, but running the ball has been much more challenging in 2024 and that has perhaps been a bigger reason the record is where it stands. Becoming one-dimensional Offensively is never a good thing and Dallas have perhaps been too reliant on the Dak Prescott arm.

The Cowboys could have a few more running lanes against this Falcons team, but they are not easy to trust to take advantage considering the issues. Ezekiel Elliot has been ruled out, which does not help, and so it will be up to Prescott to do what he can from the Quarter Back position.

Dak Prescott may benefit from throwing out of a cleaner pocket than he has been used to in recent starts, especially against this Falcons Secondary that has not made enough plays. Over the course of the season there has been better signs from the Atlanta Secondary, but this could become a shoot out and Dallas can certainly play their part.

Teams have been able to throw against Atlanta, but they have not been having it all of their own way- the Falcons have been capable of turning the ball over and Interceptions have been an issue for Dak Prescott, which is where this game could be won or lost.

If the Falcons can turn the ball over, those extra possessions may be key to determining this spread and Atlanta can do enough to cover. They are not that easy to trust with inconsistent performances through eight games, while Atlanta are just 2-3 at home.

However, this looks a good opportunity for the Falcons to just use their Offensive balance to eventually get the better of the Cowboys with a late Interception perhaps the difference on the day.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: We are almost halfway through the season, but it is already feeling pretty comfortable to use a marker, rather than a pencil, when placing the Buffalo Bills (6-2) in the NFL Playoffs. The nearest rivals in the Division have just three wins and the Bills can keep their foot down on the other three teams by beating the Miami Dolphins (2-5) for the second time this season.

The first game will be remembered for the big concussion suffered by Tua Tagovailoa, one that had some thinking that the Quarter Back should think about retirement. Instead he returned last week after several weeks in recovery, but Tagovailoa was not able to inspire the Miami Dolphins as they were down by a Field Goal in the dying embers of the Fourth Quarter.

Time is running out already for the Miami Dolphins as far as the 2024 season is concerned, and that could lead to big changes in the off-season. One win could quickly turn things around, and that could be even bigger if the Dolphins can get the better of the Buffalo Bills, who have dominated this series in recent seasons.

Buffalo have won three in a row overall and they have beaten Miami five times in a row, even when the Dolphins looked on course to win the AFC East last year.

Josh Allen is an impressive Quarter Back and he should have an impact on this game with both his legs and arm, while the dominance of the Dolphins since arriving in Buffalo is very hard to ignore. He should be able to lean on this Offensive Line and Allen and James Cook are expected to pound the ball with plenty of success through the course of this game.

Time in the pocket will make things that much more comfortable for Josh Allen and he has a new weapon in Amari Cooper that could open things up for the other collection of Receivers in Buffalo. The Bills have looked strong in their three game winning run as they have beaten up on bad teams, and that may feel the case again in Week 9 even with Tua Tagovailoa back behind Center for Miami.

Having the Quarter Back that they started the season will help Miami, but they will have a test in finding the right balance in this one against a team that has regularly gotten the better of them. The Dolphins Offensive Line have been helping to establish the run in recent games, although this time they are up against a Buffalo team that have looked much more effective at clamping down on the run of late.

Winning at the Line of Scrimmage is huge for the Miami Dolphins if only to keep Tua Tagovailoa ahead of the chains and see if that the run can open up the passing lanes. The likes of Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill are capable of breaking open any possession, and there have been times where the Buffalo Secondary have just made a mistake or two.

This should give Miami an opportunity, but they will just have to be aware of the Buffalo pass rush and especially with the concerns around Tua Tagovailoa.

It does feel like a game in which Miami will have some success, but they have not enjoyed playing in Buffalo in recent times and this is going to be cold. The Dolphins will not appreciate the conditions and the last three games against Buffalo have ended in blowout losses to the Bills.

A backdoor cover is a danger with the Miami Offensive unit being led by a Quarter Back with another week of recovery and practice behind him. However, Tua Tagovailoa has not matched up well against Buffalo at his best, and Josh Allen has enjoyed playing Miami and has regularly helped his team pull clear against them.

This is a considerable spread considering the Offensive firepower the visitors bring, but the Bills are capable of securing a win and cover.

MY PICKS: New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)