NFL Week 9 Picks 2024 (Thursday 31st October-Monday 4th November)

Week 9 is on the board and that means we are halfway through the regular season and teams are beginning to be 'who we think they are'.

The trade deadline is fast approaching and so we are at a time in the season when teams have to decide whether they genuinely believe they can reach the Playoffs or not. Some will be thinking to next season and others will still feel that a positive run can move them into a position to play Football deep into January, although the internal thoughts of each team will become clearer at the trade deadline.

The 1972 Miami Dolphins are still waiting to crack the champagne for being the only unbeaten team in NFL history with the Kansas City Chiefs at 7-0, but surprisingly there are only six others teams in the AFC that have a winning record.

On the flip-side, only five teams in the NFC have a losing record as we move into the halfway mark of the season and so there is still a feeling that all is to play for as we approach November.

Eight weeks are in the books and seven of those have returned a profit after the 4-2 mark last week.

I had fortune- the Chicago Bears must still be wondering how they are were beaten by the Washington Commanders after one of the most ridiculous of Hail Mary's was completed. That ensured a 4-2 record for the Week 8 Picks rather than a 3-3 mark, but it is very unlikely that we are going to have that kind of luck every week.

Jordan Love's injury prevented Green Bay from covering when in a strong position against the Jacksonville Jaguars so maybe that bit of fortune was deserved. However, it will be all the better if selections made can produce winning marks without having to go through another Hail Mary play and keeping the winning mark going is the only ambition for these pages.

Thursday Night Football looks an interesting one in Week 9 before some big games to be played over the weekend as the clock turns to November. Picks will be added to this thread in the coming days, but there is a selection from the first game of Week 9 and that will open up this thread.

Houston Texans @ New York Jets Pick: Fans of the New York Jets (2-6) were expecting vast improvements now they finally could look at their Quarter Back with a much higher degree of success than some of the others that have tried to make that position their own. Last season could be excused after Aaron Rodgers play just four snaps, but even the most pessimistic of Jets fans could not have anticipated that the first half of the 2024 season will have gone as poorly as it has.

Even a Head Coaching change has not prevented the Jets from losing for a fifth time in a row and there is plenty of criticism to go around.

Some of the wounds have been self-inflicted- the Jets lost by a point to the Denver Broncos, missed multiple Field Goals in a 3 point loss to the Buffalo Bills and gave up a late Touchdown to lose to the New England Patriots in Week 8. That doesn't mean that things are going to turn around quickly, but the Jets will feel their record could look a lot stronger than it does currently.

On a short week, the Jets host the Houston Texans (6-2) who have taken a big grip of the AFC South having beaten the Indianapolis Colts for a second time this season.

That is the positive news, but the negative is that Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury in that win and Houston will also be without Nico Collins for this game. CJ Stroud looks like one of the best young Quarter Backs making his way through the NFL, but it is no surprise that his passing numbers are down with the absences in the Receiver position.

It may be more of the same for Stroud in Week 9 against this New York Jets team that have a Secondary capable of making some big plays. They can perhaps chase CJ Stroud out of the pocket and force mistakes in the passing game, especially from lesser experienced Receivers, although it may make the game plan a little easier for the Houston Texans.

Joe Mixon has played well since arriving in Houston and he should be able to get something going on the ground against the Jets Defensive Line. That could be important in what may be a game that is about field position more than Touchdowns and will give Houston a chance.

However, the short week and the fact that Houston have taken complete control of their own Division may also be a factor to consider. This Texans team may be thinking about how they are going to replace Stefon Diggs rather than worrying about the struggling New York Jets and that could give Aaron Rodgers and company an opportunity.

Allan Lazard is missing for the Jets, but the overall Receiving corps look in decent shape, although there is a real pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

Much like the Texans, New York could lean on the Offensive Line and look to establish the run to put Rodgers in a good position to keep the chains moving. It will also be key to just slow down the Houston pass rush, which can be a highly disruptive force, and that may just give the Jets Quarter Back an opportunity to begin turning this season around.

Passing against this Secondary has not been easy and partly down the pass rush pressure that the Texans have put together, but that could be different for the Jets if they are running the ball well.

Even then, it is not easy to trust a New York team finding ways to lose games.

The spot looks a decent one for them and the injuries suffered by Houston may mean they may struggle on a short week and especially after taking control of their own Division. Aaron Rodgers is clearly not the player he once was, but he may be able to lean on the run and make enough plays to the likes of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson to help the Jets come away with a victory on Thursday Night Football and keep post-season hopes alive.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants Pick: Backing the Washington Commanders (6-2) in Week 8 proved to be hugely fortunate as they converted a Hail Mary with time ticking off the clock to beat the Chicago Bears. In reality the Bears blew the assignment, but the Commanders will not care one bit as they continue to lead the NFC East.

They have recorded one win over the New York Giants (2-6) in 2024 and the sweep will keep some momentum behind the Commanders before heading into a tough stretch of games. The likes of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Dallas are on deck so it is very important to avoid dropping a game to a struggling Divisional rival playing on a short week.

New York did not play badly on Monday Night Football and it was a competitive loss, which is an improvement on the previous two blowouts. Despite that, it was a loss and this is a team that is spiralling again and likely going to be making big changes once the 2024 season comes to a close.

Motivation can be found in trying to play spoiler for teams within the Division so the players should be ready, even on the short week.

It helps the struggling Giants Offensive unit that they are facing a Washington team besieged by injury on the Defensive side of the ball. Problems along the Defensive Line have been evident all season and the Commanders have not really gotten a grip with slowing down the run, which is hugely important for Daniel Jones and the Giants.

The Quarter Back has the ability to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and the Giants have been able to find some solid gains on the ground even without Saquon Barkley. However, the problem has been when games get out of hand and they have to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling, which has left Daniel Jones in a tough position to make plays down the field.

His Receiving options are back at full strength, but Jones has been constantly harassed when he has stepped back to allow routes to develop. In recent games, the Commanders have found a decent pass rush, which in turn has helped elevate the play of the Secondary and also forced turnovers that could be critical to the outcome of the game.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back of their own has really propelled this Washington Offensive unit and Jayden Daniels will be bouncing after the fortune of last week. He is grounded enough to know the whole team will need to be better if they are going to achieve something special this season, but Daniels can lead the way on the ground to make things easier for himself in the passing game.

After what we have seen in recent games, the Giants Defensive Line may not be able to deal with Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler and it should mean Washington are playing in third and manageable spots for much of the afternoon. Jayden Daniels has shown his qualities as a passer too, but the reliance will be on the ground game to just ease the powerful New York pass rush and open things up against a Secondary that have actually played pretty well at times.

The big play will open up if Washington are pounding the rock as expected and it may lead to a solid win for the Commanders on the road.

Prior to the meeting in Week 2, Washington had not won any of four games against the Giants and has lost three in a row. They has over 100 more Offensive yards in the first meeting between the teams and the Commanders can back that up with a wider margin of victory than they achieved at home, while pushing the Giants that much further towards the top of the next Draft order.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Two AFC teams with the same record meet in Week 9 of the NFL season when the Baltimore Ravens (5-3) host the Denver Broncos (5-3). The Broncos have won two in a row, while the Baltimore Ravens had won five in a row before losing in Week 8 to the Cleveland Browns, although the Ravens are huge favourites to win this one.

For the second game in a row, the Ravens will be facing a tough Defensive unit and arguably one that is stronger than the Cleveland Browns unit they faced last time out.

Everything begins with the running game as far as Baltimore go Offensively, and there is no doubting the ability of both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry when it comes to pounding the rock. They have continued to pile up the yards on the ground, although they did surprisingly move away from those plays in the loss to the Cleveland Browns even when the game was competitive.

Moving the ball on the ground against the Denver Defensive Line is a different challenge and the battle on the Line of Scrimmage is going to be huge. In recent games, the Broncos have held opponents to less than 100 yards per game on the ground, although it has to be pointed out that Denver have faced nothing like the tandem that will be in front of them in Week 9.

It is important for Baltimore to run the ball if only to make sure Jackson is playing Quarter Back from third and manageable and to make sure the Denver pass rush is not breaking things up.

If he is given time, Lamar Jackson could make a few big plays into the Denver Secondary, but this Broncos team have to be confident in at least keeping things close on this side of the ball. This has been the game plan for Sean Payton and his team in compiling their winning record and they will not want rookie Bo Nix to have to have a huge day in a tough road environment.

Instead the key will be making sure Bo Nix knows he does not have to push the boat out in order to give his team the best chance to win. Keeping the scoreboard manageable is important to that end, especially as Denver may not be able to rely on their Offensive Line as much as they have in recent games.

Running the ball against the Baltimore Ravens is a huge challenge for any team and so Bo Nix may be forced to have to make a few big plays in the passing game to keep this one competitive. The Secondary is struggling with injuries so there is a chance that Nix can have some success, although the Quarter Back will have to be careful when it comes to turnovers.

If he can avoid those, Denver can keep this one closer than expected and avoid the blowout loss.

Opposing Baltimore proved to be a rough situation a couple of weeks ago when they crushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Broncos Defensive unit perhaps have a better chance of stalling some drives. This should at least give Sean Payton a chance to create some Offensive plans to help his rookie Quarter Back make enough plays through the air to help the Broncos remain competitive throughout.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The loss out of the Bye Week at the San Francisco 49ers has dropped the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders in the NFC East and a couple of games below 0.500 for the season. There is still time to turn things around, but the Cowboys need to change their fortunes pretty quickly and some of the players are showing their frustration to the media.

They will head to the Atlanta Falcons (5-3) who have taken control of the NFC South after sweeping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kirk Cousins has played well at times, but the Falcons will know that the veteran Quarter Back may need to improve if they are going to reach the post-season and then have a big impact in the Playoffs.

This should be a game in which the whole Falcons Offensive unit can find a very strong balance with their play-calling and that should keep drives moving forward. The Offensive Line should help establish the run against this struggling Cowboys Defensive Line and that should mean Kirk Cousins is able to drop back and make his plays to his big time Receivers.

Running the ball should also mean Cousins is playing from third and manageable spots, while keeping the pocket cleaner by needing less time for routes to develop. The Dallas Cowboys Secondary have had their own problems and Atlanta should be able to keep the chains moving and put up plenty of points.

However, there is every chance that Dallas can at least keep up for a while.

In previous seasons, Dallas might have dominated behind the Offensive Line, but running the ball has been much more challenging in 2024 and that has perhaps been a bigger reason the record is where it stands. Becoming one-dimensional Offensively is never a good thing and Dallas have perhaps been too reliant on the Dak Prescott arm.

The Cowboys could have a few more running lanes against this Falcons team, but they are not easy to trust to take advantage considering the issues. Ezekiel Elliot has been ruled out, which does not help, and so it will be up to Prescott to do what he can from the Quarter Back position.

Dak Prescott may benefit from throwing out of a cleaner pocket than he has been used to in recent starts, especially against this Falcons Secondary that has not made enough plays. Over the course of the season there has been better signs from the Atlanta Secondary, but this could become a shoot out and Dallas can certainly play their part.

Teams have been able to throw against Atlanta, but they have not been having it all of their own way- the Falcons have been capable of turning the ball over and Interceptions have been an issue for Dak Prescott, which is where this game could be won or lost.

If the Falcons can turn the ball over, those extra possessions may be key to determining this spread and Atlanta can do enough to cover. They are not that easy to trust with inconsistent performances through eight games, while Atlanta are just 2-3 at home.

However, this looks a good opportunity for the Falcons to just use their Offensive balance to eventually get the better of the Cowboys with a late Interception perhaps the difference on the day.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: We are almost halfway through the season, but it is already feeling pretty comfortable to use a marker, rather than a pencil, when placing the Buffalo Bills (6-2) in the NFL Playoffs. The nearest rivals in the Division have just three wins and the Bills can keep their foot down on the other three teams by beating the Miami Dolphins (2-5) for the second time this season.

The first game will be remembered for the big concussion suffered by Tua Tagovailoa, one that had some thinking that the Quarter Back should think about retirement. Instead he returned last week after several weeks in recovery, but Tagovailoa was not able to inspire the Miami Dolphins as they were down by a Field Goal in the dying embers of the Fourth Quarter.

Time is running out already for the Miami Dolphins as far as the 2024 season is concerned, and that could lead to big changes in the off-season. One win could quickly turn things around, and that could be even bigger if the Dolphins can get the better of the Buffalo Bills, who have dominated this series in recent seasons.

Buffalo have won three in a row overall and they have beaten Miami five times in a row, even when the Dolphins looked on course to win the AFC East last year.

Josh Allen is an impressive Quarter Back and he should have an impact on this game with both his legs and arm, while the dominance of the Dolphins since arriving in Buffalo is very hard to ignore. He should be able to lean on this Offensive Line and Allen and James Cook are expected to pound the ball with plenty of success through the course of this game.

Time in the pocket will make things that much more comfortable for Josh Allen and he has a new weapon in Amari Cooper that could open things up for the other collection of Receivers in Buffalo. The Bills have looked strong in their three game winning run as they have beaten up on bad teams, and that may feel the case again in Week 9 even with Tua Tagovailoa back behind Center for Miami.

Having the Quarter Back that they started the season will help Miami, but they will have a test in finding the right balance in this one against a team that has regularly gotten the better of them. The Dolphins Offensive Line have been helping to establish the run in recent games, although this time they are up against a Buffalo team that have looked much more effective at clamping down on the run of late.

Winning at the Line of Scrimmage is huge for the Miami Dolphins if only to keep Tua Tagovailoa ahead of the chains and see if that the run can open up the passing lanes. The likes of Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill are capable of breaking open any possession, and there have been times where the Buffalo Secondary have just made a mistake or two.

This should give Miami an opportunity, but they will just have to be aware of the Buffalo pass rush and especially with the concerns around Tua Tagovailoa.

It does feel like a game in which Miami will have some success, but they have not enjoyed playing in Buffalo in recent times and this is going to be cold. The Dolphins will not appreciate the conditions and the last three games against Buffalo have ended in blowout losses to the Bills.

A backdoor cover is a danger with the Miami Offensive unit being led by a Quarter Back with another week of recovery and practice behind him. However, Tua Tagovailoa has not matched up well against Buffalo at his best, and Josh Allen has enjoyed playing Miami and has regularly helped his team pull clear against them.

This is a considerable spread considering the Offensive firepower the visitors bring, but the Bills are capable of securing a win and cover.

MY PICKS: New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2019 (October 31-November 4)

I've had a tremendously busy week which included having to attend a wedding on Saturday which has meant little time to place my NFL Picks for Week 9.

Expect a much fuller thread next week, but you can see my selections below.


MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2013 (October 31-November 4)

Last week was terrible for me personally in terms of a really busy period at work and the fact that my phone has stopped working meaning I can't do much for the blog while I am on the move. Thankfully, this week isn't seeing too many late finishes, at least not early in the week, and I have the chance to put up a full post for this week's NFL slate of games.

The last couple of weeks have been very solid for the picks after a horrible Week 6 when a lot of luck deserted me, but that came back the last couple of weeks to keep the season moving in the right direction. This is now the time of the season when injuries are going to really start affecting teams and there are plenty of big name players that have already seen their seasons come to a close and that is what makes picking a Super Bowl winner so demanding back in September.

Week 8 Thoughts

Half Term Report: Technically we have reached just short of the half way point, but it is still a good time to see how the NFL is shaping up as there have been enough games to separate contenders and those teams that are almost done as a Play Off threat.

Injuries have really killed the Atlanta Falcons at this stage and the consensus pick for the NFC South, and a trendy Super Bowl pick, are almost certainly out of contention already. Other teams that have really disappointed me are Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay and the New York Giants.

I thought all of those could have been potential Play Off teams, but I am less surprised by Washington and Minnesota's drop from last season.

The biggest surprise is comfortably the Kansas City Chiefs, although I again said they would be a lot better than last season thanks to that Defense, but I didn't think they would be the last unbeaten team left in the NFL. Detroit are 5-3 and playing up to the potential they have, but a dark horse could be the Carolina Panthers who have turned around their form far earlier than last season and finally have a winning record for the first time in years.

New England will win the AFC East, but they are not going to win the AFC: It seems easy to say which team won't make the Super Bowl, but I am going further with the New England Patriots as I think they could potentially be ripe for the Wild Card Weekend upset if they don't improve rapidly.

New England were fortunate to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday and that win had more to do with their opponents losing their way than anything else. Tom Brady hasn't looked himself and his hand definitely is giving him some problems, while the Receivers are still learning.

The most pressing concern will come from the injuries occurred on the Defensive side of the ball and I don't think they would be able to slow down Denver in a straight shoot-out, while both Indianapolis and Cincinnati definitely look too good. If Kansas City win the AFC West, Denver could be a potential visitor to New England in the Wild Card Round and I just don't think this Patriots team is good enough to go all the way in the AFC.

The disappointment of a Miami Dolphins fan: After going 3-0, I did say Miami were probably fortunate to get to that position, but I was expecting more than the team going 0-4 in their next four games. In fact, it can be said that Miami have blown at least 2 of those games, possibly 3 of those games, and much of that is down to mistakes made by the Offense.

Ryan Tannehill is only in his second season, but he has to do better when it comes to protecting the ball- it isn't the Interceptions that bother me, although a couple of those have been down to poor decision making, but the fumbles are beginning to hurt the Dolphins massively.

It's the strip sack that cost Miami the game against Buffalo and he had another against the Patriots as Miami blew a 17-3 half time lead... He has to do better, but if you can't look after the ball, you just won't win too many games.

Tannehill is young and I think he has shown enough to believe he will lead the Dolphins to better things, especially as he hasn't been protected effectively all season, but he has to show the fans improvements and not regress into bad throws as he has at times. Unfortunately, coming up against the hot Cincinnati Bengals on a short week isn't the best way to turn things around.

Should fans be concerned about Peyton Manning? There has definitely been some issue for Peyton Manning the last couple of weeks, but I think the bye is going to come at exactly the right time for the veteran Quarter Back.

He did look a little beaten up in the game against Washington, while Manning has been listed with a ankle injury but we won't really know how much that bothers him just yet. I would be more concerned if the Offensive Line can't improve their play with games against Kansas City in their second half of the season.

Manning might not have the perfect deep ball any more, but he is still capable of leading this team to glory although I will again say the Offensive Line has to improve and the Defense has to show they can at least slow teams down a little and not need their Offense to put up over 40 points to win games.

The Giants are back in the NFC East: I said above that the New York Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams of the season as far as I am concerned, but it says a lot about the NFC East that they are still in the Division.

Being 1-2 in the Division is a problem for the Giants when considering Dallas are 2 games in front of them with a 3-0 record in the East, but it is New York who have the momentum and will go into their bye to prepare for a 3 game stretch at home.

One of those games is against Dallas and New York could be right back in contention in the Division if they can 2-1 in their next 3 games as long as one of those wins is against the Cowboys. I predicted an 8-8 record could be enough to win the NFC East at the start of the season and it is a big ask for the Giants to go 6-2 in the second half of the season considering the schedule they have left.

However, Tom Coughlin and the Giants will be glad that their season isn't over yet and they could still surprise by winning the East, although I would back Dallas if I was picking a team today.

Top Five

1) Kansas City Chiefs (8-0): I am not convinced about the Chiefs, as I have said all season, but they remain the last unbeaten team so deserve the top spot... They do remind me of the last time the Chiefs made the Play Offs and were blown out by Baltimore though and I would like to see what this team would do if they went down by a couple of scores.

2) Denver Broncos (7-1): Bye has come at the right time to try and get Peyton Manning back up to full health.

3) Seattle Seahawks (7-1): Bad day in the office for the Offense against St Louis and now they have lost Sidney Rice for the season and Percy Harvin has had a setback in his return to action.

4) New Orleans Saints (6-1): Jimmy Graham is still hobbled, but the Saints have enough weapons to use the Tight End solely as a red zone threat.

5) San Francisco 49ers (6-2): The return to the power running game has sparked the 49ers and the team is getting healthier at the right time to make another run to the Super Bowl.

Honourable mentions: Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8): They look even worse in real life than they do on TV.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7): I don't know if this team has given up on Greg Schiano, but the Defense has struggled to stop anyone the last three games... Finally someone has seen sense and Tampa Bay will at least be using Darrelle Revis in man coverage going forward.

30) Minnesota Vikings (1-6): Another team with no real belief and no chance of going anywhere this season.

29) Washington Redskins (2-5): Had a big lead in Denver, but the Offense couldn't keep things going and the Defense eventually played to the level they have all season and allowed the Broncos to win easily.

28) Houston Texans (2-5): Case Keenum will start at Quarter Back going forward and Houston have lost 5 in a row... Have to beat Indianapolis this weekend if the Texans are to maintain any real hope of making the Play Offs.

Week 9 Picks

It has been a good couple of weeks, although I will be the first to admit that Denver had no right covering last week as they were 25 points behind the spread in the third quarter before scoring three Touchdowns in a eight minute span. Denver ended up covering by more than a Touchdown, and that made up for the fact that Detroit only won by 1 point despite beating Dallas in almost all facets of the game except for the 4 turnovers the Cowboys created.

This week does look tougher on first glance, but hopefully the momentum of the last couple of weeks can be carried forward.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Jonathan Martin has been excused from the Miami Dolphins team after an incident in the cafeteria during the week and that is not good news for Ryan Tannehill who has been playing behind a shaky Offensive Line all season.

Tyson Clabo will come back in at Right Tackle, but he is going to be in for a long day against this Cincinnati pass rush up front and that is going to cause problems for Tannehill who has definitely regressed the last few weeks.

Miami have to do better with the play-calling that has been questioned all week, but it will be tough to run on the Bengals as much as they did against New England and that means trying to find Tannehill some time who will also be missing Brandon Gibson for the rest of the season.

The Bengals are off a near perfect performance in seeing off the New York Jets and they will still see this as a critical game to take. Andy Dalton is playing at his best level since joining the NFL, but he too will be under pressure from a Miami Defense that gets a lot of pressure up front. The Quarter Back can't rely on the Bengals establishing a running game, but will have to exercise the screen pass to Giovani Bernard and also hope Marvin Jones continues from where he left off against the Jets.

Dalton has steered clear of the Interceptions that have prevented him moving to the next level and the momentum is totally behind Cincinnati in this one. Turnovers have killed Miami during their 4 game losing run, and it is hard to see how they recover from some of the internal issues that have arisen going into this short week.

The Bengals have flattered to deceive in a road loss at Cleveland earlier this season, but I think they want to ride their momentum going into the game with Baltimore in ten days time and I like them for a unit to cover a spread that has hit the key number.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is a huge statement game for Carolina where they can put away a Divisional rival and also spark a real belief that they can either chase down the New Orleans Saints in the Division or get involved in the Wild Card race.

Carolina have a lot of momentum behind them and they have put together three good games, reminding me a little of the way they ended last season. The push has come earlier this time around and the Panthers do look a dangerous team going forward.

I expect they will be able to move the chains on the ground initially which will open the passing lanes for Cam Newton, while making the Atlanta Offense one-dimensional by slowing down Steven Jackson will help the Defense force Matt Ryan into awkward positions.

It is a big number for Carolina to cover in this one if Atlanta were a little healthier, but they have so many injuries on both sides of the ball that I just can't see the Falcons keeping up. Matt Ryan will make some plays, but Carolina should control the clock and their Defense looks the strongest unit on the field that should be able to make plays to give Cam Newton and the Offense extra possessions.

As I said, it is a big number, but I like the Panthers to make a statement to the rest of the NFC in this one.


Tennessee Titans @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Tennessee Titans are coming off a bye and will be fully focused on winning this game with a date against the dire Jacksonville Jaguars next on deck. Tennessee will look at this game as a chance to build momentum ahead of back to back Divisional games that will put them in a position to challenge for the AFC South crown.

On the other hand, I have been trying to figure all week how the St Louis Rams will get up for a non-Conference game on a short week after coming so close to beating a Divisional rival on Monday Night Football. The Rams put in everything they had in the gas tank to win that game, and I don't know how they could recover in time to be ready for this one.

The Jeff Fisher factor may inspire the home team who will want to win this game for their Head Coach against his former team, but that may not be enough for them.

Jake Locker is definitely the better Quarter Back playing in this one and I can see the Titans forcing Kellen Clemens into a couple of mistakes that allows them to leave here with the win. The spread has been stuck on a key number which doesn't help, but I like the Titans to cover here.


Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Dallas Cowboys have been the team to back when it comes to against the spread this season and they covered in another losing effort last weekend.

That won't appease Cowboys fans who can't afford to see Dallas slip up in this game if they have serious ambitions to make it to the Play Offs. With games at New Orleans and New York Giants to come in the next two weeks, losing to a 1-6 Minnesota Vikings team at home is unthinkable.

Minnesota are off a big loss at home to Divisional rivals Green Bay Packers and will be starting Christian Ponder again at Quarter Back. He may have a little more success against a prevent Defense that Dallas run, while Adrian Peterson may finally get back on track as he deals with a hamstring issue.

The absence of Demarcus Ware will make life a little easier for Ponder, but I am not sure he has the confidence to take advantage behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect whoever lines up behind Center.

Dallas have also not looked that good Offensively in recent games, although they still have made some big plays. The lack of a running game has to be a concern, but DeMarco Murray may return this week to at least keep the Vikings honest and also offer better protection for Tony Romo. The Quarter Back has struggled for numbers the last couple of weeks, but Romo should be able to torch a Secondary that is playing a lot of young players and will be missing Harrison Smith.

I don't trust Christian Ponder in this game and I think the coaching staff haven't given him a lot of confidence that they believe in him. With Dallas well aware of the importance of winning this game ahead of two tough road games, I am going to back the Cowboys for a small stake.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I wasn't the only person disappointed with the lack of intensity that Seattle showed on Monday Night against St Louis and the conspiracy theorists have had a field day in discussing why they didn't seem to be that interested in that game.

Pete Carroll won't care about spreads and all of that, but he will care that his team did win and will look to put some pressure on San Francisco by extending the lead in the NFC West while their rivals are on a bye week.

The absence of Sidney Rice does hurt his Offense, but home field is huge for Seattle and it is a big ask for Mike Glennon to make the plays to keep Tampa Bay in the game.

And if you want to talk about a lack of effort, the Buccaneers looked to have given up on Greg Schiano as they were beaten up by the Carolina Panthers and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back in one of the toughest environments in the NFL as a visiting team.

It is a big spread to cover considering how the Seattle Offense has looked the last couple of games and especially in the absence of Sidney Rice. However, Seattle are very strong at home and I can see their Defense forcing Mike Glennon to make a couple of mistakes and use those turnovers to power to a big win. The spread has started dropping to 14 points and I would definitely wait for that hook just as a safety valve.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This is a huge AFC North game which has a lot of Play Off implications, especially for the Baltimore Ravens who will be expecting to get back to the post-season. A win would give them some momentum ahead of the game with Cincinnati, while they would also own the tie-breaker over Cleveland going forward.

They can't afford to take the Browns lightly as that team is playing far more competitive football than anyone would have expected once they traded away Trent Richardson. Cleveland have also knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals at home this season and they have a legit Defense that matches up well with Baltimore's Offense.

Neither team will have sustained success in this one as far as I am concerned, but Joe Flacco is likely to make the bigger plays compared with Jason Campbell and a healthier Ray Rice could prove pivotal to the game.

John Harbaugh is also very strong coming off a bye and has his team well prepared to win that game and the Ravens have dominated the recent series between these teams. I hate how small the spread is because it looks a big trap, but I will back Baltimore to win and cover here.


Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I think the Green Bay Packers Offense is more dangerous than it has ever been since Aaron Rodgers took over as Quarter Back... Well at least since their Super Bowl run.

The year the Packers won the title, it was down to the running of James Starks in the Play Offs that sparked them and I feel the arrival of Eddie Lacy gives them a genuine Running Back that teams have to be aware of. That opens things up for Aaron Rodgers and his array of talent and this is going to be a big ask for the Chicago Bears to slow Green Bay down.

And that means Josh McCown has to find a way to spark an Offense to keep up with a high-scoring team like Green Bay. Personally I just don't think the back up is going to be capable of doing that in this game, especially if Matt Forte is taken away in the manner Green Bay have managed to do in recent games.

Brandon Marshall will likely get his catches, but McCown is going to be under pressure up front and I think it is a big ask for him to try and keep the Bears close with the Packers in this one.

One thing to factor in perhaps is the fact that Aaron Rodgers is 8-2 against the Chicago Bears as the starter for Green Bay... However, he has never beaten them on Monday Night Football where he suffered his 2 defeats against the Bears.

Even with that strange statistic in mind, Green Bay have been too good for Chicago at home and I like them to win this one going away.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 39-28-1, + 13.67 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units