The Major League Baseball season may be considerably longer than the NBA, but there is at least a real whittling down of the teams that are able to compete in the post-season when all is said and done.
After eighty-two games are played by each of the NBA teams, only ten of the thirty teams in the League are eliminated with four more to follow after the Play In Tournament.
Fans are a little frustrated, but the players are also concerned about the length of the regular season.
An introduction of the NBA Cup was designed to create more meaningful games in the regular season, but that has worked to a point and the Commissioner has significant work to do in order to prevent teams from tanking. That has become the focus considering the ten eliminated teams were a long way away from even earning a spot in the Play In Tournament with positioning in the Draft Lottery the priority and the NBA has suffered for that.
However, we are now moving into the First Round of the NBA Playoffs and there is little doubt that there is a marked difference between the intensity and the quality that fans get to enjoy at this time of the season and for the two months ahead.
The Eastern Conference in particular looks incredibly top-sided.
You could make a case for the Atlanta Hawks to have a genuine shot at a First Round upset, but the likes of Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are expected to progress without too many issues.
Injuries can change the outlook of any team and that has been the case in the Eastern Conference over the last few post-seasons, but going into the Playoffs, this looks like a Bracket that is going to be heating up considerably once the Second Round and Conference Finals Series are played.
The Western Conference has tended to be deeper in recent years, but you can comfortably take the top three Seeds over the field going into the Playoffs.
Oklahoma City are the defending Champions and they will take a lot of happiness out of being on the other side of the Western Conference bracket than the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs. That makes them favourites to reach the NBA Finals again, especially if the Nuggets and Spurs take chunks out of one another in the Seeded Second Round Series, but the Thunder did not have things all of their own way last year and will not need to be reminded of that, despite finishing with the best record in the regular season.
It is the San Antonio Spurs that stand out as the biggest threat in the West, but the Denver Nuggets have rounded into nice form of their own.
There are also going to be plenty of eyes on every Los Angeles Lakers game to be played with some suggesting that LeBron James could call time on his career at the conclusion of the run. Many hoped he could have a storybook ending with a strong run in the Playoffs, but injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have severely weakened the Lakers and 41 year old LeBron James may not have the energy to carry his team as he could at his best.
A tough opening Series with the Houston Rockets could see the Lakers season ending prematurely and James will then have some big decisions to make with his Free Agency impending and a number of options on the table.
2023 and 2024 produced positive returns at + 10.49 Units (+ 14.98% Yield) and + 4.06 Units (+ 5.34% Yield), but 2025 was rough.
The final numbers stood at - 9.42 Units (- 11.08% Yield).
It was a really poor run through the Second Round of the Playoffs that proved to be costly in that post-season, but 2026 is an opportunity to bounce back.
As has been the case in previous years, the opening Rounds of the Playoffs are split into the first 'half' of the Series and those selections being in one thread and the remainder of the Series in another.
The reason is to avoid the very long threads developing, although having all of the First Round Series Game 1-4 Picks in one thread cannot avoid lengthy posts regardless with eight Series played.
NBA Playoffs 2026- First Round Picks Game 1-4 (April 18th-27th)
Saturday 18th April
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: There was an opportunity for the Cleveland Cavaliers to put in a big effort to try and move up to the Number 3 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but ultimately a decision was made to make sure key contributors were available at full health when the First Round Series were to begin.
They showed little concern as to who they would be facing in the First Round and Cleveland were perhaps most focused on making sure they did not run into the Boston Celtics in the Second Round of the Playoffs.
In saying that, the Cavaliers had to be anticipating facing the toughest of the likely First Round opponents in the Atlanta Hawks, but a late slip in the regular season allowed the Toronto Raptors to move into the Number 5 Seed.
There won't be too many Cavaliers upset at this First Round Series instead of the one that could have been against the Atlanta Hawks.
However, that will be bulletin board material for the Toronto Raptors who may have struggled against the best teams in the NBA, but who did win all three regular season games played against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The quirk of the schedule means all of those games were played before December and there has been a significant roster change for the Cavaliers since then, but Toronto fans can take some real encouragement out of that record.
In the last couple of road games in the regular season, the Raptors were blown out by both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks and they will need some of the leaders to step up on the return to the Playoffs. This is a team that is still transitioning into one that can challenge at the top of the Eastern Conference with regularity, but the key to this Series is bringing a real Defensive intensity into every game played.
The Raptors struggled with some of that down the stretch in the regular season and will be having their first look at the Cavaliers with James Harden in the lineup.
However, the opening games of the post-season will be something of a learning curve for the Cleveland Cavaliers- they may have traded for Harden before the deadline, but injuries have hurt the roster and that has meant limited time spent on the court with what Cleveland will feel is the strongest lineup. While they have had some minutes, you do have to wonder if that is going to be an early factor in the Playoffs with the Cavaliers looking to make a fast start and avoid giving Toronto too much encouragement.
Cleveland do look like a team that will have considerable success Offensively, but the questions have long been about whether that is going to cover the obvious downgrade Defensively of bringing in James Harden for Darius Garland. They showed something in the last few regular season games, but the three point Defensive performances were worrying, even if there is a feeling that this current Raptors team are not best suited to exploit those concerns.
The battle on the boards is going to be key, but the Game 1 of First Round NBA Playoff Series have tended to be dominated by the home team in recent years.
Pressure can be created by this Cleveland Offensive unit and they should be stronger on the other side of the court with the likes of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor.
The head to head is largely irrelevant considering how long ago the last of those meetings were and the Cleveland Cavaliers should have the qualities needed to move into a 1-0 lead.
Home teams are 12-4 against the spread in the last two Playoff seasons in Game 1 of the First Round and big favourites are still thriving in this Round.
Toronto will have the shooting power to stay competitive for a while, but the Cavaliers should have enough to pull clear in the second half and they can open this Playoff run with a solid win and a cover.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: The last two seasons have ended in Western Conference Finals defeats, but it feels like the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to slip back a little this time around.
For the second season in a row they have earned the Number 6 Seed in the Western Conference, but a Series with the Denver Nuggets looks very challenging for the Timberwolves. In 2024, Minnesota did upset the then defending Champions 4-3 in the Western Conference Second Round Series, but it may surprise Nuggets fans if they are extended beyond a Game 6 in 2026.
That sounds disrespectful to a team that have reached back to back Conference Finals, but Minnesota have slipped from the level they produced twelve months ago, even slightly. In a competitive Conference, that slight slippage is enough to change the narrative all around a team, while Anthony Edwards has been banged up down the stretch.
The Timberwolves are going to need Edwards at close to full health if they are going to upset the odds in this Series, but they may take encouragement from the fact that the Denver Nuggets have had key role players missing significant time. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson provide a really strong support to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and both are going to be very important for the Nuggets if they are to have a deep run in the post-season.
Denver fans thought the team were about to embark on their own legacy creating run when winning the NBA Championship in 2023, but have suffered heartbreaking defeats in each of the last two seasons. Both have ended in the Western Conference Second Round with a Game 7 defeat, but the Nuggets enter the post-season with a twelve game winning run under their belts, which helped Denver secure the Number 3 Seed.
Doing so means avoiding the Oklahoma City Thunder until the Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are experienced enough to avoid looking beyond this First Round Series.
After winning that Western Conference Second Round Series in 2024, Minnesota had a very good record against the Denver Nuggets, but that has changed in the 2025/26 regular season. They have played four times in this regular season and while the Timberwolves won the last of those, Denver won the first three of those games and it will give a veteran group that much more belief in the match up.
In the last couple of weeks of the regular season, Minnesota were not playing with the same consistency as the Denver Nuggets and they will need their own experienced group to really step up on the Defensive side of the court. Recent games have seen the Timberwolves struggling Defensively and allowing opponents to have plenty of success from the field, although Minnesota will pride themselves of being able to get out and make things difficult for the three point shooters.
The real test not only in Game 1, but throughout this First Round Series is for the Minnesota Timberwolves to be able to impose themselves Offensively- they have been shooting the ball pretty well, but the Denver Nuggets have the size to dominate the boards and have been stopping opponents from picking up some momentum. The difference is that the Nuggets can be attacked from the three point range and so the Timberwolves have to find their rhythm quickly in this one.
A strong end to the regular season means the momentum is behind the Denver Nuggets and they can become the latest home team to open Game 1 of the First Round Series with a very good win.
You cannot ignore the recent match up between these teams, but Denver may have things figured out right now and the health of the roster gives them an opportunity to win and cover the spread in this opening game.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: After reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and feeling like they could have gone further, all of the pressure is on the New York Knicks to find way back into the NBA Finals and perhaps end a long wait for a Championship.
They won the NBA Cup, but the New York Knicks finished with the Number 3 Seed in the Conference.
There was a real hope that this Seed would result in a First Round Series with the Toronto Raptors, who have lost all five games against the Knicks in the regular season. Instead the Knicks have been 'rewarded' with a First Round Series against the Atlanta Hawks who were one of the hottest teams in the NBA after the All Star Break and who can play with the freedom of having 'nothing to lose'.
In pre-season, many believed the Hawks would be much improved by pairing Trae Young with Kristaps Porzingis.
Injury and poor form meant that failed to really operate as hoped and both players have since been moved on and that has opened the door for younger players to burst through and show their worth. Jalen Johnson has really raised his level and looks like he is ready to take the next step in his development, but the Hawks have a number of younger, hungrier players that have proven their own worth.
Add to that roster the likes of CJ McCollum, Jonathan Kuminga and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and you have a number of players not only with Playoff experience, but with Conference Finals experience.
Together, it makes the Atlanta Hawks dangerous and perhaps the most out of all four of the lower Seeds in the Eastern Conference.
The New York Knicks will appreciate the threat posed by the opponent and that is clear despite winning two of the three regular season games.
However, those two wins have come by a combined 6 points and the one game played at Madison Square Garden ended in a blowout win for the road team.
New York have been very good Offensively all season, but the real challenge for them is producing stronger Defensive efforts, which had been a feature of the Tom Thibodeau reign before he was fired as Head Coach at the conclusion of last season. The Knicks will score, but this is a dangerous Atlanta team to go shot for shot with and that will allow the Hawks an opportunity to make this a very competitive Series.
The Hawks were beaten by both New York and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the final few days of the regular season, but the Knicks have struggled when facing teams with winning records. That victory came by a three point margin and this feels like one of those opening games in the First Round of the Playoffs where the road team can push forward and make use of the points being given to them.
The experience edge is with the New York Knicks in terms of how the current rotation have fitted together in the Playoffs previously, but the Hawks are playing very well and have been for some time.
Over the next few days, Atlanta will be chasing a split of the opening two games to be played at Madison Square Garden and this opening game may offer the best route to achieving the split at a minimum.
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: If the NBA Playoffs begun at the beginning of April, the Los Angeles Lakers would have been a trendy pick to come out of the Western Conference.
The blowout loss alone to the Oklahoma City Thunder would not have changed the narrative, but losing both Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic to significant injuries changes the entire outlook of this team. Both players are struggling to make it back for any potential Second Round Series and the Lakers are set as the underdog in the First Round, despite finishing with the higher Seed.
LeBron James is still here and he has inspired the Lakers to three wins in a row that have secured home court in the First Round Series.
However, the veteran has plenty of experience and will fully understand the kind of challenge that awaits the Los Angeles Lakers in this Series with the Houston Rockets, even if the Number 5 Seed have not lived up to the expectations of pre-season.
Bringing in Kevin Durant was supposed to take Houston to the next level, but this is another veteran NBA Champion whose best days are behind him and that leaves the Rockets short. They allowed some very important players to leave to bring in Durant, which was costly for the Phoenix Suns when they were developing into a team that were expecting to challenge at the very top of the Western Conference, and Houston are going to find it tough beyond the First Round.
In the First Round Series, the Rockets are right to be set as favourites and they are looking to continue the recent trend of big road favourites being able to win and cover when set as such in the First Round of the Playoffs.
The Rockets were firing at the end of the season and will have confidence even if they lost three of the four regular season games against the Los Angeles Lakers, including both played last month. Those were played with both Reaves and Doncic in the lineup, but this Lakers team is not nearly as efficient without them and LeBron James is 41 years old and it is asking a lot of him to carry those around him.
Houston cannot afford to take anything for granted in this Series and they are going to be looking for the opening split of the first two games of the road. Taking away home court as soon as possible is the ambition for this team and it just feels like the Houston Rockets have been peaking at a good time at the end of the regular season.
Respect has to be given to this Lakers team that have won three in a row and twice as the underdog, but this is a considerably tougher test.
There will be pressure on the Lakers Defensively when it comes to dealing with Kevin Durant and the match up he has on the court and this is another of those games where it feels like the home team can be opposed, even if Game 1s of recent NBA First Round Series have heavily leaned in the favour of the hosts.
Road favourites of more than 4.5 points have a very strong 40-21-1 record against the spread in the First Round of the Playoffs, and that can balance out home advantage with the Houston Rockets looking like the stronger team and with enough late season momentum to do enough to snatch home court away from the Los Angeles Lakers at the first opportunity.
Sunday 19th April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: Winning the opening Play In Tournament game has pushed the Philadelphia 76ers into the NBA Playoffs as the Number 7 Seed and that means a First Round Series against the Boston Celtics.
They came into the season knowing there would be a huge reliance on the 'big three' of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George, but injuries have seen all three miss significant time on the court. Joel Embiid was not available for the Play In Tournament win over the Orlando Magic and the team have announced that he is not going to suit up for Game 1 of the First Round Series either.
Credit has to be given to VJ Edgecombe for stepping up to the plate- he arrived as a high Draft Pick, but Edgecombe may have been expected to ease into his professional career, but has not been overawed by the opportunities that have come up.
He had 19 Points and 11 Rebounds in the win over the Magic and the Philadelphia 76ers will have gained some confidence from having won three games in a row.
Despite that, the 76ers enter Game 1 as a big underdog and that has plenty to do with the fact they are facing a Boston Celtics team that have overachieved all season without Jayson Tatum. The expectation was that the Celtics would largely coast through this campaign and then look to bounce back when Tatum would be fully healthy in the 2026/27 season, but things changed thanks to the performances of those who have been operating in the Celtics uniform all season.
Jaylen Brown has thrived as the leader, and that has encouraged the Boston Celtics to give Jayson Tatum the freedom to decide how healthy he feels before returning.
Unsurprisingly Tatum has shown his own leadership by returning from his devastating injury sooner than anticipated and he has fitted back in seamlessly with the team.
With that in mind, it is no surprise to see the Boston Celtics move into one of the favourites spots in the Eastern Conference, but they will not be taking anything for granted and will need Jayson Tatum at close to his best. There is a depth on the roster that does make the Celtics dangerous and they can come out and make a big early statement in this First Round Series by covering the very big line set.
Big favourites have tended to perform very well in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, while the Number 2 Seed in this Round have been very good at covering in the first two games of the Series and when set as a favourite of more than 4.5 points.
Respect has to be given to the Philadelphia 76ers for the Defensive efforts they have continued to produce even without Joel Embiid in the lineup and that could help them keep this one close.
However, the Celtics are very strong on the Defensive side of the court themselves and Boston can perhaps match the 16 point victory over the 76ers recorded in early March.
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: Knocking off the Golden State Warriors in the final Play In Tournament game means the Phoenix Suns avoided becoming the first team to lose two homes games at that stage of the post-season and be eliminated from the First Round of the Playoffs.
There was some tension at the end of that victory, but the Suns won't care as the young squad enter the Playoffs with a chance to build some experience that will help in the development of the team.
As you can tell, expectations before the season were pretty limited and the Phoenix Suns will have already overachieved by earning the Number 8 Seed.
At the same time, the Phoenix Suns will want to show what they are all about when they face the defending Champions and Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder remain favourites to win the NBA Championship again and they will be pretty happy with this match up, rather than facing the veteran Golden State Warriors who could have used their Playoff experiences to make things awkward.
Encouragement for the Phoenix Suns is that they split a four game regular season series with the Oklahoma City Thunder, including a win on this court on the last day of the regular season. However, that was a victory over a second string Oklahoma City team and two of the other three regular season meetings ended in blowout losses.
Phoenix fans have to believe that they can show enough youthful exuberance and Defensive intensity to at least give the top Seed something to think about, but this opening game feels like a tough spot on limited rest.
The road team may hope that the relatively long layoff for the Oklahoma City starters could perhaps slow the early rhythm and that could give the Suns an opportunity- however, the Thunder are an experienced group now and the home crowd should give them all of the motivation to find their shooting very quickly.
It is the three point shooting that makes the Thunder very dangerous in this match up with the Phoenix Suns and that has shown up in a couple of blowout wins over this opponent in the regular season.
Twelve months ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder won Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies by 51 points and they can certainly overpower this spread set.
Another home team being set as a very big favourite is the play in this First Round Series.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Game 1 Pick: The last couple of years have seen the Detroit Pistons improving and developing, but they still surprised most by finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Despite that, the consensus seems to be picking the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers as more likely winners of the Conference and that can only mean this Pistons teams is a Number 1 Seed who are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Out of the four hosts on Sunday who are all facing in Play In Tournament teams, the Detroit Pistons have been set with the lowest point spread, although they remain a big favourite.
They are facing the Orlando Magic in the First Round after the Number 8 Seed crushed the Charlotte Hornets to take their place in the NBA Playoffs- they had been beaten at the Philadelphia 76ers earlier in the week, but the performance against the Hornets will have given the Magic a huge boost in confidence.
Taking that performance into this First Round Series is the key for the Orlando Magic and they will not need reminding that they won the last time they faced the Detroit Pistons, albeit at home. That was in a game that was played earlier this month and the Orlando Magic have a group of players who have Playoff experience and will certainly believe they can offer some real resistance to the top Seed.
However, the victory was against a Detroit team without Cade Cunningham, but the star player has returned and put some valuable late season minutes into the legs. The Pistons have shown they can be very good without Cunningham, but no one will be surprised to hear the importance of having in the lineup and keeping him healthy is key to any significant run that can be put together over the next couple of months.
Both home games played against the Orlando Magic ended in strong Pistons wins earlier this season and they will be keen to make an early statement in this First Round Series.
Credit has to be given to the Magic for the Defensive intensity they have shown down the stretch, but this is a tough challenge for them against a confident Detroit Offensive team that knows how to get the best out of the whole roster.
It is the other side of the court where Detroit can really take control of this First Round Series and they will believe they can largely contain what the Orlando Magic will be bringing onto the court. The Pistons are gritty and tough and will battle on the boards, while showing that intensity to get out to shooters and Detroit can make a strong start to this First Round Series.
Orlando are on a relatively short rest with just a day between games and after putting in an emotional effort to make sure they did not slip out of the NBA Playoffs before it really gets underway.
Last year the Magic had a big more preparation time for Game 1 of the First Round in the Playoffs when coming into the bracket as the Number 7 Seed- they were still blown out by the Boston Celtics and this Detroit Pistons team can come out with a big win to open the 2026 post-season.
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Pick: Gregg Popovich had considerable successes during his long tenure as Head Coach of the San Antonio Spurs, but he stepped down from the role at the end of last season. That came after the sixth consecutive year of missing the NBA Playoffs, but the Spurs look like they are not only back, but capable of winning a NBA Championship as soon as June 2026.
It has been a remarkable leap in performance from the Spurs who have been able to bring in Victor Wembanyama to become the face of the franchise.
One of the only concerns around Wembanyama is his durability with the last couple of years seeing him miss plenty of regular season games, but the All-Star has improved his numbers in each of the last two seasons since his rookie season.
Wemby is looking healthy going into his first Playoffs and the San Antonio Spurs have to be credited for the manner in which they have built the roster around him. They have come on leaps and bounds this season and San Antonio fans will only have to listen to their best player to know how well the Number 2 Seed have competed with the defending Champions Oklahoma City Thunder throughout this season.
Looking too far ahead would be a mistake considering the Spurs have landed in the tougher side of the Western Conference bracket, but they will be largely happy with the First Round Series against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Much like the Spurs, the Trail Blazers are developing the roster in the right way and that means needing some patience and allowing players to build up their experience- beating the Phoenix Suns earned the Portland Trail Blazers the Number 7 Seed through the Play In Tournament and this First Round Series will certainly help in the development of the roster going forward.
It is a tough match up against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Trail Blazers lost two of the three regular season games and that was without San Antonio being at full strength and it may be tough for this young group to compete with the qualities of the Number 2 Seed.
The challenge for Portland is to try and pick up the Defensive intensity and see if they can at least create nerves within this Series, but there are two games to open on the road and Portland will have to steal away Home Court if they are going threaten an upset. It is a big ask for the Trail Blazers considering the form in which the San Antonio Spurs finished the regular season, especially as the Spurs have been a real powerhouse on the Defensive side of the court.
There is a lot to like about some of the younger players on the Portland roster, but finding a consistent scorer in this Series may be the obstacle between them and an upset.
San Antonio are another double digit favourite, but this is a game in which the lean is with the 'under' of the total points line set.
Both teams could be focusing on making sure they scheme up on the Defensive side of the court and all three regular season meetings finished below the total that was set on the night. The double digit spread is right on an awkward mark when you think the Spurs won by 13 points and 11 points in those two regular season victories.
The Spurs are more likely to cover seeing as Victor Wembanyama had limited time on the court against the Portland Trail Blazers and is a difference maker, but backing the under looks the play in Game 1.
Over the last six seasons, the under has been the play in Game 1 of the First Round Series and that looks the right play here.
Monday 20th April
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: There would have been a lot of fans who believed the Toronto Raptors were one of the weaker teams going into the First Round of the Playoffs without the need of featuring in the Play In Tournament. Nothing we saw from Game 1 would have changed that narrative as the Raptors were beaten by 13 points at the home of the Cleveland Cavaliers and even that margin of victory does not paint the full picture.
The game was a blowout by the end of the Third Quarter and that means the Cleveland starters have all been given a bit more rest in that Game 1 victory, which should suit going into the Monday Game 2.
All of the adjustments have to be made by the Toronto Raptors who do not have the deepest of rosters when it comes to experiences of the Playoffs- they will hope the Fourth Quarter momentum gives them a chance to build, but the Cleveland Cavaliers will not have been too concerned about that.
Cleveland will look to come out and win the battle on the boards, while the efficiency of the shooting can only offer the Number 4 Seed confidence,
The Raptors did have their own successes from three point range, but teams who have shot well from that distance and still lost have had a tough time bouncing back in the next game of First Round Series in recent years.
There is also the additional challenge of trying to bounce back from a big loss- teams who have lost by at least 12 points in the First Round of the Playoffs have struggled to an 81-111-2 record against the spread in their next game over the last thirteen years.
Adjustments will be made, but the Raptors look short of the qualities of the Cleveland Cavaliers who can back up recent successes that home teams have had in Game 2 of the First Round Series.
Toronto did win the last three regular season games between these teams, but Game 1 is a reminder of the difference and the Cavaliers can cover the same line set for this Game 2
Big favourites have continued to work through the spread, and the home team can take complete control of this Series before heading to Canada for two games.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: The second half performance saw the New York Knicks take control of Game 1 of this First Round Series and ultimately ended with a 1-0 lead.
No one can take anything for granted in what has looked like a potentially awkward First Round Series, but the New York Knicks will be pretty happy with the level they produced in that opening win. They were the superior team when it came to the three points shooting having shown a bit more efficiency compared with the Atlanta Hawks, while the Knicks won the battle on the boards.
That was a key factor to determining the outcome of Game 1 and the New York Knicks will be looking to become the latest home team that have won the opening game of a First Round Series to back that up effectively in the second game before heading out on the road.
They will have respect for this Atlanta Hawks team and the way they have performed over the last couple of months, but the New York Knicks have the momentum.
There were some big moments in Game 1 which will have frustrated the Atlanta Hawks- they were only 2 points behind going into half time, but the Hawks only managed to score 19 points in the Third Quarter. Some of the starters will be looking for more intensity on the court, but the Hawks are trying to turn the tables on the Knicks in a tough spot for road teams who have lost Game 1 of the First Round Series.
Atlanta are dangerous, but they are a little inexperienced and that perhaps showed in the second half of Game 1.
It is all about making the adjustments work, but the Hawks will have to focus on those on the Defensive side of the court if they are going to return home with a split in the Series.
Home teams that won Game 1 have a very strong record at covering in Game 2 of recent First Round Series and that could be the case in this one too.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: After coming out and making a fast start, the Minnesota Timberwolves would have reminded Denver fans of the way the Nuggets have struggled to match up with this opponent.
However, the Denver Nuggets players will be aware of the way they have handled the Timberwolves in the regular season and that meant they could likely deal with the early 'punch in the face' received.
The Nuggets dominated the middle of Game 1 by out-scoring Minnesota 68-46 in the Second and Third Quarters and the 11 point win has given Denver the lead they would have sought in this First Round Series.
Backing that up is the challenge and the Denver Nuggets will be keen to make a faster start in this one and really put the pressure on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards is trying to play through the pain, but he is clearly not at 100% and that means the other players on the Timberwolves roster have to take the lead at times, which proved beyond them after the First Quarter.
Minnesota had decent performances across the board, but will need more to make up for the shortcomings in the Anthony Edwards performance level as he bids to dig in.
Both teams have some adjustments to be made- neither shot the three ball at the level they would have hoped and the shooters will have to improve, while the Denver Nuggets will feel they can produce a stronger win if they can control the paint with more effectiveness.
The concern for the Timberwolves is that it feels like there is plenty of room for improvement as far as the Denver Nuggets are concerned and they are looking to become the next home team who can back up the win in Game 1.
Over the course of the season, Denver have been a more consistent three point shooting team than they showed on Saturday and the Nuggets look a little healthier than the Minnesota Timberwolves. Unless someone can step up and try and take control of Game 2, the Denver Nuggets may have a little too much for the road team for a second time in this Series and they have a chance of covering this spread, which is set at a similar mark to Game 1 which was eventually controlled by the Nuggets.
Tuesday 21st April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: As soon as they won the first Play In Tournament to earn the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers preparation for the Boston Celtics would have reminded them of the challenge facing them in this First Round Series.
Game 1 underlined the statement after the Boston Celtics blew past the 76ers and there are some significant adjustments that need to be made on both sides of the court.
The absent Joel Embiid is casting a big shadow over the Philadelphia 76ers and his presence may have given them more hope, but there is a lot of pressure on those who have to tow the line without him. Tyrese Maxey and Paul George have experience and plenty of talent, but they will need support and the 76ers cannot afford too may subpar shooting days as they produced in Game 1 if they are going to push this Series beyond four or five games.
Not many teams will win games shooting at 4-23 from the three point range and especially not as a lower Seed facing one of the genuine Championship contenders. You have to believe the 76ers will not be as poor from that distance again, but even that may not be enough to close the significant final gap between the teams at the end of Game 1 and there is a lot of pressure on the underdog.
It will also feel like a must for the 76ers to win the Rebounding numbers having lost the battle on the boards in Game 1- having second chance Offensive opportunities and keeping Boston from doing the same is paramount to any upset they can produce, but all in all, it feels like a tall task.
The Celtics will have been really happy to see Jayson Tatum looking as strong as he did in Game 1, while they continue to light up the scoring from the three point arc.
Everyone contributed around Tatum in Game 1 and this makes the Boston Celtics dangerous, even if it feels like the roster is not as strong as recent teams that have made the Playoffs.
They should have too much for the Philadelphia 76ers again, even if Game 2 is certainly going to be more competitive than the first on Sunday. One of the keys for the Celtics is to avoid losing focus and trying to get through this First Round Series as soon as possible knowing the challenges that await further into the Playoffs are much greater and keeping energy in reserve for this is hugely important.
Once again the Boston Celtics can show what a big favourite can do in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, while home teams have backed up victories effectively in Game 2 of this opening Round of the post-season.
Over recent years, it has also been difficult for teams coming off blowout losses to bounce back in the next game and that is another test for the 76ers- they cannot shoot any poorly from three point range, but stopping the Boston Celtics is going to be a problem and the home team can cover as the double digit favourite.
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 2 Pick: Game 1 of this First Round Series in the Western Conference was dominated by favourites San Antonio Spurs, but the Portland Trail Blazers may take some heart that they were still 'only' beaten by 13 points. With just a day of rest between the opening two games in this Series, the Trail Blazers will be looking to make the adjustments that may see them steal away home court advantage.
The main adjustment that will be needed to be made is dealing with Victor Wembanyama who massively impressed in his Playoff debut.
The best player on the San Antonio Spurs roster and the franchise face did it all- Wemby had 35 Points and 5 Rebounds with 2 Blocks, but it is the Defensive performance in stopping the Portland Trail Blazers shooters that will not show up on the stat sheet that will have gotten many to take note.
Records were set in the Game 1 win, but Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs have to remember it is only 1-0 in a race to four wins.
Backing it up is the big test as San Antonio look to avoid a long, drawn out Series ahead of a potential Second Round Series against the Denver Nuggets.
The Spurs will be very happy with the numbers from Game 1 as they shot very well from the three point arc and won the battle on the boards. Everyone contributed around Victor Wembanyama and there will be a real confidence in the locker room ahead of Game 2.
For the Portland Trail Blazers, there were some positives to take from Game 1, namely the performance of Deni Avdija who had 30 Points with 10 Rebounds and 5 Assists, but the support crew will need to step up. Like in any Series, the adjustments made by one team have to be exploited by the other and Portland's roster have to be aware that the Spurs are likely going to want to close on Avdija and force the rest to beat them.
This is young group that will take a lot of experience away with them no matter how the First Round Series plays out, but Portland will not want to go away quietly. They only made 10-38 attempts from he three point range, while a number of players underperformed compared with the seasonal numbers and that will have to change.
Of course the Trail Blazers will know there is a big test for them against a very good San Antonio Defensive unit, but they will be expecting more from themselves in Game 2.
Ultimately it feels like Portland will come up short again, but the line is still a difficult one to read considering how games between these teams have played out all season.
Once again the 'under' looks the play with the total points line dropping a couple of points from Game 1, but perhaps not enough to ignore backing Game 2 to finish below that line again.
In recent years, a double digit favourite in Game 2 has made the 'under' a big player in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs with those games ending below the total line set in fifteen of twenty-one occasions over the last thirteen years.
Both of these teams are proud of the intensity they bring on the Defensive side of the court and the adjustments could see the Trail Blazers and Spurs focus on the two big names on each roster and force others to try and beat them.
The likelihood is that the Spurs will end up with a 2-0 lead when all is said and done, but the spread is still in an awkward spot and backing the under looks the right play for a second time in this Series.
Wednesday 22nd April
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Game 2 Pick: They say a NBA Playoff Series doesn't really begin until a road team has won so this is the only First Round Series that has 'gotten underway' after the completion of all of the Game 1s.
The Eastern Conference top Seed Detroit Pistons were the only home favourite beaten over the weekend and they will be looking for a big response to avoid falling into a really precarious position in the Series.
Adjustments can be made- the Pistons shot poorly outside of Cade Cunningham and the role players who had maintained the push for the top Seed in Cunningham's absence in the regular season will be looking to step up. They have shown they can do that, while the Pistons never really recovered from the early onslaught put on them by the Orlando Magic, who had played two Play In Tournament games before securing the Number 8 Seed in the Playoffs.
That may have been a factor, but the Pistons cannot use it as an excuse and they have to show much better intensity right away.
The Orlando Magic will already feel they have had a successful road trip by stealing home court from the Number 1 Seed, but this is a veteran team with plenty of experience and they will know the importance of trying to secure the second win.
In Game 1, Orlando were the better team from the field, but they will also feel there is room for improvement having struggled from the three point range. Improving those numbers will really give them an opportunity to secure a second upset in this First Round Series, while the intensity and determination shown by the players was mostly reflected on the boards and the edge Orlando had in those numbers.
You have to believe this Pistons team will respond with only a couple of days of rest between Game 1 and Game 2 rather than a full week preparing for the opening game of the First Round Series. Some of those behind Cade Cunningham will believe they've gotten the poor game of the Series out of the way already and Detroit finished with the Number 1 Seed for a reason.
In recent years, Number 1 Seeds who are trailing in a First Round Series have been a good team to back with a solid 9-4 record against the spread, while home teams playing after a defeat have also tended to have a positive response.
On Monday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers maintained a very strong covering record for big favourites in the First Round and the Pistons are expected to be better in Game 2 as they look to at least have this Series levelled up before travelling to Florida for two games.
All credit has to be given to Orlando for the performance in Game 1, but the Pistons are the call to bounce back.
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: They won the elimination Play In Tournament game to enter the First Round of the NBA Playoffs as the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference, but most will feel the Phoenix Suns are a season ahead of schedule. The experience they will get by playing in the post-season could be invaluable going forward, but it could be a painful lesson handed out to them if the Number 1 Seed plays even close to the level they were showing in Game 1.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the defending Champions and know how important it can be to get through the opening Round of the Playoffs without taxing key players.
Last year they swept past the Memphis Grizzlies after making an early statement in the Series with two big home wins and the 35 point blowout in Game 1 has already been an early indication of what the Thunder are trying to achieve in this Series.
None of the starters played more than 30 minutes and the Thunder will have been really pleased with the performance of Jalen Williams, who had an injury disrupted regular season. Most of the plaudits are rightly handed to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Jalen Williams is a big support player and both were looking comfortable in the big home win in Game 1.
Oklahoma City are going to look to pick up from where they left off and all of the questions that need to be answered are aimed at the road team and big underdog.
Devin Booker had a decent Game 1 performance, but the Suns may need more from him and a much more efficient shooting day from his support players in Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green. Both of those players contributed at least 17 points, but the combined shooting on the night was 12-38 and that is not going to cut it against a very good Oklahoma City Defensive unit.
Inefficient shooting and being comfortably out-rebounded is not the formula for the Phoenix Suns, while they have to also be concerned that the Oklahoma City Thunder have room for improvement in their own three point shooting. Having a long layoff between games may have contributed to being slightly out of rhythm and it is an improvement that the Thunder can put together in Game 2 of this First Round Series and complete another big win.
The Suns do have two regular season wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the three losses this season have all been by 20+ points and the home team may have enough to cover this really big spread set.
Thursday 23rd April
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Game 3 Pick: For seven Quarters in this First Round Series, the New York Knicks looked the better team than the Atlanta Hawks and they were very much on course for a 2-0 lead.
They opened the Fourth Quarter of Game 2 with a 12 point lead, but the Knicks lost their way Offensively and missing on the buzzer saw that lead erased and end with a single point defeat. However, whether you lose by a single point or 100 points, it adds up to the same thing and that is that the New York Knicks have dropped home court advantage ahead of the trip to Georgia.
Now it is the turn of the Atlanta Hawks to host and they will be looking to take a real grip of this First Round Series by winning Game 3 and 4, which are played on Thursday and Saturday.
There is a lot to like about the level-headed approach that a young Hawks took to battling back in Game 2, but they were also aided by a New York Knicks team that went ice cold from the field. Just 15 points were scored by the home team in the Fourth Quarter of Game 2, which is a remarkable climbdown from reaching at least 26 points in each of the previous seven Quarters played.
New York will be looking to make a few adjustments, but there may also be a feeling that they just took the eye off the ball in the Fourth Quarter while managing a big lead and even then had a chance to win the game at the very end.
One of the adjustments that have to be made is avoiding falling in love with the three point shot- they had 9 more attempts in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but it was scoring just one more bucket in the second game that displayed the inefficient nature of that approach. The Knicks did underperform from the three point range and that will hurt, while the bench players did not produce on the Offensive side of the court to back up the starters.
Despite the defeat, the Knicks should feel like this is a Series they can still regain some control.
Atlanta will feel pretty confident too after escaping with the Series level at 1-1 after an inefficient shooting day from the three point range of their own. They did get a boost from the bench and it does feel like those second unit players could make the difference in the Series, while the Hawks will continue to try and clog up the lanes and force Jalen Brunson to shoot from the three point arc.
Being back at home is a huge boost for the Atlanta Hawks and the crowd should give them that intensity and drive that could see the lower Seed come through.
However, it still feels like the Knicks are the better team and they are one poor Quarter away from being in a really strong spot- experience should see New York come out with more in this Game 3 as they look to rally and take back home court immediately, while the road teams have been in a decent spot in Game 3 of recent First Round Series.
A narrow loss feels like a huge blow, but teams who have lost by less than 4 points have bounced back really well in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. They are 40-22-2 against the spread in the next game played, while those numbers becomes 24-10-2 against the spread if the next game has a small spread to deal with.
Home teams trying to back up a win have struggled in the last three years, while home teams in Game 3 have really struggled when set as the underdog or as narrow home favourites or less than 4.5 points. These all apply to this Game 3 and the New York Knicks have won a big road game in Atlanta earlier this month in the regular season to give them an idea of what to expect as they perhaps pull out another close win here.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors Game 3 Pick: As the First Round of the NBA Playoffs Bracket came closer to being formed, it was clear in the Eastern Conference that the Toronto Raptors were seen as the team to face in this Round.
That might have offered some real motivation to the Raptors players, but it has not been enough in this First Round Series and they have not been able to compete with the Cleveland Cavaliers as they return home 2-0 down in the Series. The Raptors will be well aware of the history of the NBA which has never seen a team recover in a best of seven Series from 3-0 behind and so there should be some extra effort and intensity in trying to avoid that fate.
In recent years, a trend had developed where backing a team 2-0 down in the NBA Playoffs to be leading at half time in Game 3 and covering what was traditionally a smaller spread was paying out regularly. The layers are on top of that these days after so many people spoke about it and so that is no longer the angle it once was with bigger half time spreads tending to be set.
You can understand the argument- the historical failure of teams to recover from 3-0 behind and the desperation of teams in that position, particularly at home, does bring out that extra effort from the outset.
This is something the Cleveland Cavaliers will have to manage early in Game 3, but they have to be feeling really comfortable with the match up- not only have they won both games by double digits, but the Cavaliers have outscored the Toronto Raptors in six of the eight Quarters played and one of those where they failed to do that was in the Fourth Quarter of a monster blowout in Game 1.
The Raptors have not shot the ball poorly with over 50% of field goals made in both games, although they struggled from the three point distance in Game 2. They had more Rebounds in Game 2 compared with the Cavaliers, but Cleveland have been just too good Offensively and even a drop in the efficiency from the three point arc did little to disrupt the momentum and consistency of the team on that side of the court.
A real advantage for the Cavaliers is having two very good ball-handlers in Donovan Mitchell and James Harden and that has seen them massively dominated the turnover battle.
Cleveland have been able to shut off Brandon Ingram, which has put more pressure on the other players to replace his scoring abilities, and it is simply very difficult to see how this Series is begun to be turned around.
In recent seasons, Game 3 has been dominated by the road team unless set as a significant underdog and the Cavaliers can move to the brink of the Eastern Conference Second Round with another strong win.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: Taking Game 1 behind a solid Defensive effort and opening a big lead through the middle of the Second Quarter in Game 2 will have just pumped up the Denver crowd and had the Nuggets perhaps thinking about a 2-0 lead to take onto the road.
Things changed and the Denver Nuggets were reminded how awkward this Minnesota Timberwolves team can be as the lower Seed battled back and made some big time buckets and late stops in the Fourth Quarter to steal away home court advantage.
Momentum is now with the Timberwolves, but they have been set as a narrow home underdog in Game 3 and that has not been a very good position for teams in that position in recent First Round Series. They will have to expect some adjustments made by a Denver team that are thinking NBA Championships this season, while Minnesota know they will go as far as Anthony Edwards can take them as he continues to operate on a banged up knee.
His numbers have been strong through both games in the Series, but in Game 2 Edwards got a bit more support from Julius Randle, while the Timberwolves just managed to hit a few more three pointers. That certainly helped Offensively, while they challenged the Denver Defense and managed to make a few more trips to the Free Throw line.
Increased intensity on the glass saw the Timberwolves pick up a couple more Offensive boards and they had a few more Rebounds in Game 2 compared with Game 1 and that adds up.
Now it is up to the Denver Nuggets to make adjustments having seen Nikola Jokic fail to dominate as much in Game 2 as the opener of this Series. He was supported by Jamal Murray, but this is a player who still missed eight more three pointers than he made and Denver need someone else to get going around the two top names on the roster.
The Nuggets only had 5 Offensive Rebounds in Game 2 and they will have to improve that if they are going to get this Series back into a positive position.
There will still be a real confidence in the Denver camp that they can do that and Game 3 is usually an opportunity for road teams who are carrying that expectation.
Nothing is going to come easy against a scrappy Timberwolves team, but the Nuggets are very experienced and can make the adjustments to bounce back from the Game 2 defeat immediately, while becoming the latest road team that covers in Game 3 when not being set as a relatively big underdog.
Friday 24th April
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: There has been some roster upheaval at the Boston Celtics, but there are also plenty of players still wearing this famous green uniform who will understand the current situation. Losing Game 2 at home is not ideal, but the Celtics have laid a few bad eggs in the early Rounds of recent Playoff pushes and that has rarely knocked them off their stride for too long.
Game 2 was about as bad as it could be after a strong start- the Boston Celtics shot poorly throughout the night and failed to show the required intensity on the Defensive side of the court. A defeat is going to just refocus the players and the Celtics remain a big favourite in this Series, which is not that surprising.
Of course the challenge for the Celtics is going out on the road and coming out with much greater desire than they showed at times in Game 2.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown put up strong numbers, but the supporting cast did not play well and the 13-50 showing from three point range is not going to win a lot of games. They were 16-44 from that distance in the Game 1 blowout and Boston will be looking for those around Tatum and Brown to find their rhythm very quickly.
The Series has been dictated by the three point shooting so far with the drop off produced by the Boston Celtics coming at the same time that the Philadelphia 76ers found a big improvement. The 76ers went from 4-23 from three point range in Game 1 to 19-39 in Game 2 and there is no doubt that made a big difference.
VJ Edgecombe really came out in Game 2 to make an early statement and he did that, but backing up that performance will be key. We know Tyrese Maxey is going to have decent numbers and Paul George is still very capable, but the rookie Edgecombe has to take over from where Joel Embiid might have been important for Philadelphia and the 76ers will only have a chance if he produces more Game 2 style efforts.
Speaking of Joel Embiid, he looks to be getting closer to a return which would be an emotional boost for the 76ers if nothing else.
Game 3 feels a big chance for the 76ers to show they can push this Series for long enough to have Embiid return, but the punch in the face taken by the Boston Celtics should also refocus the Number 2 Seed.
In recent history, Boston have dropped some home games in the post-season and responded very well and you have to believe this experienced group will be able to do the same. The expectations is that the 76ers cannot shoot as well from three point range again, while Boston cannot be much worse, and the layers still believe in the Celtics judging by the spread set.
Bouncing back from blowout defeats have proven tough in the First Round of the Playoffs, but Philadelphia showed it can happen and so Boston should believe they can do the same.
The Celtics are a big road favourite, but those asked to lay at least 4.5 points in the First Round have a 40-23-1 record against the spread (although 0-2 this season thanks to the Houston Rockets).
Game 3 road favourites of at least 4.5 points are 13-9-1 against the spread and a Number 2 Seed following a First Round Playoff defeat are 22-6 against the spread in the next game played.
It is a big number and especially dangerous if Philadelphia come out shooting as they were in Game 2, but the expectation is that the Boston Celtics will remind everyone that they remain the stronger team in the Series.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets Game 3 Pick: The Houston Rockets may have been worried about the Los Angeles Lakers and a First Round Series against this opponent if they had been at full health, but the continued absences of both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves looked to have swung the odds in favour of the Number 5 Seed.
The layers certainly thought so with the Houston Rockets big road favourites in both games hosted by the higher Seed to open this Series.
A late scratch of Kevin Durant in Game 1 was a bitter blow and it is unsurprising that the Rockets struggled without him, but even the return of the veteran Champion failed to get the desired result from his team.
That means despite being a big road favourite in both games in this Series, the Houston Rockets return home 0-2 behind and in a desperate position to find a response.
There are a couple of days of rest between Game 2 and Game 3 as the First Round Series switches venues, but the Houston Rockets need to find some adjustments. They will be hoping Kevin Durant is a little better with a couple more days of recovery from the knee injury that kept him out of Game 1, but Durant is likely to continue to be harassed as the Lakers dare someone else to beat them.
Tari Eason has contributed from the bench, but there has been an inefficiency about the Houston Offensive unit and that has restricted them against a Lakers team knowing they have to put in that extra effort on that side of the court without two important Offensive contributors.
All of the credit has to be given to the Los Angeles Lakers for doing that, but LeBron James will be reminding his team that they have not achieved anything yet and a 2-0 lead can quickly become 2-2 before returning home if they are not careful. Producing at home is one thing for the support players, but it has been long noted in the NBA how it is much more difficult for those role players to show up on the road and that is the challenge for the Lakers.
Where the Los Angeles Lakers have really done well is the efficiency with the shooting without Doncic and Reaves.
They have taken 66 shots in Game 1 and just 72 in Game 2, but the Lakers have made 61% and 46% from the field overall, while 10-19 and 13-28 marks from the three point range are hugely influential in guiding the Lakers to the victories.
It will be tougher on the road, but the Los Angeles Lakers have shown they can put together enough Defensive intensity to challenge the Houston Rockets and they can avoid a blowout. Game 4 is set on Sunday, which may be tougher for the Lakers with the limited rest, but they have two days to prepare for this one and that should see the best effort they can produce on the road.
The Lakers have won the last four in the series against the Houston Rockets and that is also something that cannot be ignored- they should expect the very best effort Houston have to try and avoid the mammoth task for overturning a 3-0 deficit, but the Lakers have shown they can keep this one competitive and the Rockets may not have the firepower to blow them out and cover a big line.
Hosts favoured by more than 4.5 points do have a 16-4 record against the spread in Game 3 of the First Round of the Playoffs, which is a concern when going against the trend, but if the Lakers continue to play as they have Defensively, they can keep this competitive on the scoreboard against an almost double digit line.
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: Any Series or Playoff picture can be changed by significant injury and there is little doubt that this First Round Series and the entire Western Conference outlook could have changed by a big one in Game 2.
Victor Wembanyama was looking to back up his debut in the post-season by leading the San Antonio Spurs to a 2-0 lead over the Portland Trail Blazers, but he took a pretty hard fall in the Second Quarter and was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the game. His team were only narrowly beaten on the night, but the bigger story is that Wembanyama has been placed in concussion protocol having banged his head and that almost certainly means missing Game 3 and potentially Game 4.
With the First Round Series tied at 1-1, the San Antonio Spurs will be desperate to find a way to at least bring this one back home level, although doing so without one of the best players in the NBA is going to be hugely challenging.
About the only positive they can take is that they are facing a Portland Trail Blazers team that is scrappy and gritty and not one that is going to take over a Series by crushing opponents by big margins. However, the Trail Blazers have shown they are going to be competitive and dig in when needed and that will give them confidence as they bid to upset the odds and move through to the Second Round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Portland's Offensive numbers across the first two games are very similar and they are not likely to change the approach significantly. The key in Game 2 was getting more out of players not called Deni Avdija and that helped them move the ball around and try and keep the San Antonio Spurs a little out of balance.
There is still a very good San Antonio Defensive scheme on the court, even without Victor Wembanyama, as they showed in Game 2, and this is a well Coached team that will make the adjustments without their superstar on the court. Finding enough scoring will be a test, but San Antonio have won games without Wembanyama in his time in the NBA and they cannot be dismissed to do the same here in Portland.
During the regular season, San Antonio finished 12-6 in games without Victor Wembanyama and that includes beating the Trail Blazers, although they did lose a road game in his absence.
Backing the under for a third time in the Series is a potential route into Game 3 having won both previous efforts, but it feels like there is something in backing the Spurs to find a way to regain home court advantage.
It will be a big test on the road, but there is going to be a different expectation around this young Portland team with the fans feeling an opportunity to take the lead in the Series. That can build a pressure around a team and that is where a well Coached San Antonio team may be able to make one or two adjustments to get the better of the host.
Much like the New York Knicks, the San Antonio Spurs are looking to recover from a narrow defeat and teams in that spot are 40-22-2 against the spread in that spot and 24-10-2 against the spread when set as a narrow favourite/underdog.
Hosts in Game 3 have struggled when set below a 4.5 line as a favourite, while teams playing at home after a win have also had a tough time covering.
This is also a Number 2 Seed for a reason and the San Antonio Spurs will note those teams are 22-6 against the spread in a First Round Series after a defeat and can just remind everyone that they are more than Victor Wembanyama.
Saturday 25th April
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: The opening two games of this First Round Series have been plenty competitive, but one Quarter in each has given one team the momentum to push on and secure the win.
The Number 8 Seeded Orlando Magic came out and put an 8 point lead on the board after the First Quarter of Game 1 and did enough to manage that in an eventual 11 point win to steal home court from the top Seed Detroit Pistons. The physical approach of the Magic looked like it could cause problems on paper and taking that lead in the Series and then battling the Pistons in the first half to a tie in Game 2 will have increased the nerves in the Detroit fanbase.
However, it was a dominant Third Quarter that has allowed Detroit to win Game 2 and level this First Round Series and now they will head out on the road looking to reclaim home court advantage after playing two games in Orlando.
Cade Cunningham had another strong showing, but his fellow starters all showed up in Game 2 and that was the key for the Pistons.
That doesn't mean things have been going perfectly though and Detroit will be looking to find some rhythm from the three point range to try and open this Orlando Defensive scheme up. They are just 16-58 from three point range in this Series and the Pistons were actually less efficient in Game 2 compared with Game 1 so there are some adjustments to be made and shooters need to find their confidence.
It was the Rebounding intensity that proved really important with the Pistons wiping Orlando out on the glass, and so it is up to the Magic to find a way to become more competitive.
After a decent first half showing, Orlando came out and were crushed in the Third Quarter of Game 2, but the players can return home knowing they have achieved what they set out to do and that is take away home court from the top Seed. The shooting numbers were poor by the end of Game 2, but Orlando may have lost their focus and intensity once the blowout was on in the Third Quarter and they can make some adjustments to get back on track.
Games between these teams were competitive in the regular season, but the Detroit Pistons will feel they have some momentum after winning Game 2.
Like a number of teams in this First Round, Detroit have been set as a narrow favourite on the road and that is a position where the higher Seeds have been successful in Game 3 of recent Series.
Number 1 Seeds have been a decent back at 10-7 against the spread when set as a favourite of 2.5 points or less, while Orlando are an underdog in a range where those teams have struggled in Game 3.
There has been a lot to like about Orlando, but this Detroit team can match them physically and will always feel they have a chance with the best player on the court in Cade Cunningham as long as the other starters and role players can offer some support.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns Game 3 Pick: Game 2 was closer than Game 1 on the final scoreboard, but the Oklahoma City Thunder dominated again and were leading by 23 points heading into the Fourth Quarter. They lost a bit of focus after the injury suffered by Jalen Williams, but the Thunder would have felt relatively calm and they are in a strong position at 2-0 in this First Round Series.
Losing Jalen Williams for this Series will hurt, but it is not going to hold the Thunder back, although if the hamstring injury is more serious, the absence will be felt the deeper into the post-season that Oklahoma City go.
He is almost certainly missing the next two games in Phoenix as the Oklahoma City Thunder bid to move through to the Second Round without having to suit up at home again.
The Phoenix Suns will be hoping a change of venue can help in their bid to be more competitive- they did shoot the ball a bit better in Game 2 compared with the opener, but the Suns had to scratch and claw to keep up with the Thunder early, and never recovered when the top Seed began to pull away.
Most will expect the Suns are here a year earlier than anticipated, but they will want to avoid being swept away without offering better resistance and using the home crowd is the key. Having Grayson Allen and Jordan Goodwin back in the lineup would be a big boost in trying to achieve that, but it still feels like a very tall task for the Suns.
They did get stronger contributions from players that are not called Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks and being at home does tend to free up those role players to produce better basketball. However, the Suns will know they are facing a significant challenge on the Defensive side of the court and that even before the Thunder find their stroke from the three point arc.
It is clear the Thunder would like to have Jalen Williams with them rather than on the sidelines, but this is a team who played more than half of the regular season games without him and still finished with a 39-10 record.
So while the absence hurts, the Oklahoma City Thunder should still have too much for this Phoenix Suns team and they can move to the brink of the Western Conference Second Round behind another double digit win over this opponent.
Big home underdogs in Game 3 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs have a losing record against the spread and the Thunder should be motivated enough to want to progress without facing too many bumps in the road. All of the wins over the Phoenix Suns this season have come in games where Oklahoma City have been able to pull away from the Number 8 Seed and they can do the same on Saturday afternoon.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Pick: Back to back single point defeats have put the New York Knicks in a bit of a bind and there is going to have to be some desperation in their play when they begin Game 4 of this First Round Series. Some will say there was not enough of that in the first half, but the Knicks rallied in the Fourth Quarter only to come up short at the very end of Game 3 as they did in Game 2.
Blowing that big Game 2 lead feels like it could be a pivotal moment in this Series, but the Knicks have to remember that they were the higher Seeded team and a win to reclaim home court advantage will swing things back in their favour.
However, winning is going to be the challenge against an Atlanta Hawks team growing in this Series and feeling like the stronger of the two involved.
It is quite a statement seeing as the Hawks have only just clung on for back to back wins and could be 3-0 down in this Series with a couple of plays here and there, but they are a young group who will be gaining more and more confidence and who will believe they match up pretty well with New York on both sides of the ball.
Forcing the Knicks to have to settle for three pointers has been a momentum shifter- the Knicks only took 25 of those shots in Game 1 and made just shy of half of the efforts, but they have taken 69 three pointers across the last two games and struggled with just 21 being made. That has to be improved if the Knicks are going to find a way to turn things around and that means getting more out of the likes of Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges on the Offensive side of the court.
In reality it feels like Head Coach Mike Brown is no longer trusting a cold shooting Bridges and that may offer a route into more minutes for Miles McBride who had a 5-10 effort from three point range in the Game 3 loss and gave the Knicks some spark from the bench. More minutes for the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are also going to be important with the Knicks needing all of the Offensive creativity that has been missed without them on the court.
All of the adjustments do have to be made by the New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks are likely going to be pretty pleased with the direction the last two games have taken.
It was an efficient shooting day in Game 3 and the Hawks are getting strong contributions from the bench through Jonathan Kuminga's experience. They will want to come out and weather any New York storm that a desperate team may bring, but the Atlanta Hawks like the way they match up Offensively with the Knicks.
Picking a winner is not easy- the expectation is that the Knicks will rally, but they are not easy to trust after poor execution at the end of the Fourth Quarter in each of last two games.
Instead it may pay to back the teams to come out and expose potentially tired players on the Defensive side of the court with the one day rest between games. The total line is at an awkward spot, but the Knicks and Hawks have shown they can get into the late 100s on the scoreboard and that should give them an opportunity to get past this number set.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: There was a tetchy ending to Game 2 and things only ramped up ahead of Game 3 when Jaden McDaniels not only criticised some of the Denver Defensive players, but actually went ahead and listed them out before doing so. There would have been some serious egg on the face if the Minnesota Timberwolves had not dominated Game 3 in the fashion they did, while McDaniels backed up his words by putting up a Double-Double of 20 Points and 10 Rebounds.
Prior to the game, the Denver Nuggets refused to get involved in the trash-talking and instead wanted to focus on their ability on the court, but the late scratch of Aaron Gordon hurt their prospects. He is one of the top Defenders the Nuggets have, regardless of what an elite Defender like Jaden McDaniels thinks of him, and Denver struggled to make too many stops without him.
They have slipped into a 2-1 deficit against a Minnesota team that have upset them before in the post-season and there is a lot of pressure on the Denver players to make adjustments with a day of rest between games.
Having Aaron Gordon back would be a positive, but there have to be questions about how ready he is to compete at this level, while Denver cannot afford too many more 25% success rates from three point range. A big problem is that the Nuggets are massively reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, but both are having issues in this Series and the complement players are simply not able to pick up the slack on the Offensive side of the court.
The raw numbers may say Jokic and Murray combined for 43 of the 96 points scored by Denver in Game 3, but they were incredibly inefficient points- the two top Denver players went 12-43 from the field, while just 2-15 from the three point range, and that means they had more than half of the Field Goal attemps.
With that being said, another inefficient shooting day could do for Denver and they are under big pressure.
Minnesota might have also struggled from the three point range, but they spread the points around and that meant a much stronger overall record from the field. Anthony Edwards is the undoubted star, but the Timberwolves finished Game 3 with two players who had more points than him, while Edwards was one of five different players that put up at least 15 points.
Four players had at least 14 points in the Game 2 upset on the road and the Minnesota Timberwolves will certainly begin Game 4 with a lot of confidence.
The spread does look tough to call with some expectation that the Denver Nuggets make adjustments to perhaps get back on track, but the total line looks too big.
Neither team has been shooting the ball that well from the three point range, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are both decent Defensive teams, even if Jaden McDaniels would disagree. Two of the three games in this First Round Series have finished well below the total line set for Game 4 and backing the Under looks the play in what could be a pivotal battle in this Western Conference war.
Sunday 26th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors Game 4 Pick: It was close midway through the second half of Game 3, but the Toronto Raptors used a really strong effort from the bench players to back up RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes in their win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The First Round Series has come alive, but the Raptors will be under some pressure to replicate what was an almost perfect Offensive performance.
Credit has to be given to Toronto for putting together really strong Offensive efforts throughout this Series, but having an outing where they hit 57% from the field and 61% of their three pointers is unlikely to be replicated. The Raptors finished the game 14-23 from the three point range and Jamison Battle came off the bench to go 4-4 from the distance, which is far surpassing his regular season averages.
Toronto will be looking to pick up from where they left off and there are two days between games to give Scottie Barnes all of the time he needs to recover from suffering a slight knock in Game 3. He was never going to leave that one with his team desperately trying to get back into this First Round Series, but the Raptors know they need Barnes at his best if they are going to pull another upset and level things up before heading over to Cleveland.
The two day rest feels more important for the Cavaliers as they look to make adjustments- the weaker Defensive players were continuously challenged and the numbers are a reminder that they failed to compete as hoped. There are plenty of Offensive improvements to be made too with the team throwing up too many threes without getting close to the success rate of the host, while Cleveland know they are not going to win too many games with just 33 points out of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell combined.
In the first two games, the Cleveland Cavaliers showed what they can do and the expectation is that we will see a much better version of them in Game 4 after being reminded of the threat posed by the Toronto Raptors.
After seeing the performance produced by the Raptors, they are dangerous to oppose, but Game 4 hosts have struggled when set as an underdog of 3.5 points or higher in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. Those teams are just 14-26-1 against the spread over the last thirteen seasons, while lower Seeded hosts have struggled when playing after a home win.
The spread has ticked a point higher than Game 3, but that is the layers also expecting the better team to come out with much more intensity and the Cavaliers may do enough to secure the victory and take command of this First Round Series with a narrow cover of the line.
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: Late Free. Throws pushed Boston Celtics past the spread, but they were only focused on winning Game 3 whether that be by a single point or a hundred points... Taking back home court was all that mattered and the Boston Celtics have achieved that after taking a 2-1 lead in this First Round Series.
However, there is now going to be a serious opportunity in front of the Celtics to try and push on and take another road victory and then return home being able to close things out next week.
Like they have over the past couple of seasons, the Boston Celtics live and die by the three point shot and they were in efficient mood on Friday to earn the victory. Even then, the Celtics will have a lot of respect for this scrappy Philadelphia 76ers team who gave as good as they got in Game 3 and continue to challenge the Boston Celtics without Joel Embiid in the lineup.
They will feel they can shoot the ball better than they did in Game 3, while there is still a hope that Joel Embiid will be able to suit up in this one having come close to being available on Friday. A couple more days of rest may be enough, but this feels like a Series that will come down to shooting of the Boston Celtics and the 76ers will need them to have another off day to get into a position to win and level things up again.
VJ Edgecombe was not able to produce the same scoring power as he showed in the Game 2 upset on the road and the rookie will need to offer a bit more support to the likes of Tyrese Maxey. Paul George had a decent 7-14 day shooting from the field, but the 76ers may need the veteran to look to take more command in this Game 4 and not just settle to be a role player to the others on the court.
The 76ers are a big home underdog in Game 4 and teams have not played well in this spot with hosts being given at least 3.5 points being 14-26-1 against the spread over the last thirteen years.
They have shown enough to believe they can be competitive, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have taken control of games at key times to give the Boston Celtics the lead. They are experienced enough to handle the situation and the Boston Celtics may do just enough to cover this mark set.
Monday 27th April
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns Game 4 Pick: The first half of most of the First Round Series have been concluded, but none of those have been completed.
The first team that could be moving through to the Second Round of the Playoffs is the defending Champions Oklahoma City Thunder who have taken a 3-0 lead in this Series and look to have far too much for the Phoenix Suns.
Despite being shorthanded, the Thunder have continued to show their strength compared with this young Suns team and they can do enough to complete the sweep. They have been set as a big road favourite, but teams in that spot have performed well in Game 4 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs in recent years and the Thunder can cover, even as the line has been pushed out a little further.
Phoenix have shown some grit and character, but ultimately they have not had enough consistency to keep up with the Thunder.
Teams looking to avoid a four game sweep in the First Round of the Playoffs have tended to struggle and that may play out in this Series with the Thunder moving onto the Second Round with yet another opening sweep.
MY PICKS: 18/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Denver Nuggets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Atlanta Hawks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Houston Rockets - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Boston Celtics - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Detroit Pistons - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 San Antonio Spurs-Portland Trail Blazers Under 221.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Denver Nuggets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
21/04 San Antonio Spurs-Portland Trail Blazers Under 220.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Detroit Pistons - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 New York Knicks @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 Denver Nuggets - 1.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
24/04 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Los Angeles Lakers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/o4 San Antonio Spurs - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
25/04 Detroit Pistons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/04 Atlanta Hawks-New York Knicks Over 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/04 Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets Under 229.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 14-13, - 0.19 Units (27 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
