Boxing Picks 2026- Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler (Sunday 26th July)

It has not had the kind of impact that Dana White promised when moving into the Boxing world, but Zuffa Boxing has made some big signings and this looks an interesting card as they go out for the ninth time in 2026.

The question remains as to how Zuffa Boxing intends to keep their top names happy if they are one, refusing to do business with other Promoters, and two, wishing to ignore the Boxing Organisations?

Of course hearing Jai Opetaia is planning to sure the IBF and a number of other names in the Boxing world after signing with Zuffa and then being forced to give up his World Title is an interesting move considering some of the statements made by those that the Australian has signed with... It is a power play? Potentially, but it has raised eyebrows considering all we have heard from Zuffa as to why Opetaia is so concerned about wanting that World Title back.

We will see that play out over the coming weeks and months, but Zuffa Boxing will continue to put their cards out and this is one that will be featured at Madison Square Garden, albeit in the Theatre rather than in the main room.

The main event is one that feels very important to the 'A side', but there are some potentially decent scraps on the undercard as well on what should be a decent night of action.

Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler

A little over twelve months have passed since Edgar Berlanga was being Stopped by Hamzah Sheeraz in Queens, but he is back in the Five Boroughs on Sunday night and with a new promotional team.

While most fighters would have been humbled by the manner in which Berlanga was beaten, the excuses were lined up and you do have to wonder if he has learned anything.

Of course Zuffa Boxing are going to want to see Edgar Berlanga win and win well and they have offered up an opponent that may allow him to showcase his talent.

Steven Butler has won thirty-eight fights and thirty-two of them have been in Stoppages, but the Canadian has lost five times and all before the final bell. He is unbeaten in four since his last defeat to Patrice Volny, but it has felt like Steven Butler has found this kind of ceiling too high to reach and that should suit Edgar Berlanga.

The Puerto Rican has lost two of his last four fights, but those have been defeats to Canelo Alvarez and Hamzah Sheeraz and both would be considered much stronger opponents than the one he is facing on Sunday.

Add in the fact that the other two fights in that run have both been won by Edgar Berlanga in Stoppages and it does feel like Zuffa have lined up a bout where one of the new signings can impress.

He should also be the naturally bigger man and Edgar Berlanga can find a way to secure the Stoppage as he moves through the gears after a couple of feel out Rounds.

Another fighter who has signed with Zuffa Boxing and is returning after a long layoff is Richardson Hitchins and the former Light Welterweight World Champion is making his debut in the Welterweight Division.

He has spoken about making up for lost time and Hitchins also feels he should have made the move to Welterweight sooner, and now the challenge is making a big statement and then chasing the big names.

The Knock Out record is not that eye-catching, but Richardson Hitchins will feel his power will be more telling in this weight Division.

Ricardo Adan Salas Rodriguez will know he has a big opportunity to push his own career forward, but the unbeaten home fighter should have too much for him and the feeling is that Richardson Hitchins will be in a position to turn the screw and eventually overwhelm this opponent in a chief support spot on this card.

Jalil Hackett is expected to do enough to earn a narrow Decision against veteran Sergiy Derevyanchenko, although the layers are giving the latter plenty of respect in what should be a competitive bout.

There is also a crossroads fight in the Heavyweight Division when Otto Wallin takes on Vladyslav Sirenko and the expectation is that the former will do enough to edge to the victory.

Otto Wallin has a win over Murat Gassiev on his resume, which looks all the stronger now that Gassiev has become a World Champion in the Division. That could be a rematch that would have been chased if Wallin has not signed with Zuffa Boxing, but the Swedish fighter should still be very motivated to remind everyone of what he can do after suffering defeats to Anthony Joshua and Derek Chisora since December 2023.

The Sirenko defeat to Soloman Dacres is a really disappointing one and Otto Wallin may have enough about himself to win this one on the cards.

There is another Heavyweight Fight during the preliminary part of the broadcast that could offer up a selection- both Kashaun Davis and Mihai Nistor are unbeaten with eleven and eight wins respectively and all have been inside the distance.

Both are making a step up compared with previous opponents beaten and this Eight Rounder could see one of the fighters move through the gears to not only remain unbeaten, but to maintain the run of a perfect Knock Out record too.

However, the lack of recent activity goes against Nistor as he returns for the first time in over two years and that may just give Kashaun Davis the edge in what could develop into a firefight.

MY PICKS: Edgar Berlanga to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Richardson Hitchins to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Otto Wallin to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kashaun Davis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 2.40 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2026: 20-34, - 9.46 Units (84 Units Staked, - 11.26% Yield)

World Matchplay Darts Day 9 Pick 2026- Final (Sunday 26th July)

The two stronger players both came through Semi Final matches without facing too much resistance against Dutch opponents and now Luke Littler and Gerwyn Price have one more match to win if they want to lift the World Matchplay trophy.

My thoughts on the World Matchplay Final can be read below.

Luke Littler over 15.5 180s v Gerwyn Price: The level produced by Luke Littler over the past week makes it almost impossible to imagine anything other than him lifting the trophy at the end of this match on Sunday.

So many players have looked beaten before the match against Littler has even begun, but credit has to be given to the World Number 1 for the numbers that have been put together.

He is hitting treble 20 for fun and Luke Littler has racked up the maximums with another sixteen produced in just twenty-two Legs against Dirk van Duijvenbode in the Semi Final.

The rate of the maximum hitting is simply outrageous, but Luke Littler has proven time and time again that he is playing with an ability to maintain the current levels we are watching.

Gerwyn Price will always head to the oche full of belief and he can offer some resistance having looked like he is getting stronger and stronger the longer he has been in this tournament.

The Semi Final in the Premier League saw Luke Littler edge Gerwyn Price 10-9 and the Welshman has certainly been able to push the top Seed.

However, Price will do well to ignore the fact he has lost nine in a row against Luke Littler and that looks like it will become ten by the end of this Final.

The chances are that Gerwyn Price will be able to score well enough to at least give himself an opportunity to win Legs, but that may also give Luke Littler the room from which he can surpass this total set for his personal maximums.

After adding those from the Semi Final, Luke Littler has now hit fifty-four maximums in eighty Legs played in this tournament.

It would be a surprise if we have fewer than twenty-five Legs in this Final and, on current rate, that would be enough for Luke Littler to surpass this number and the confidence of the World Number 1 means it is the easy market to back.

MY PICKS: Luke Littler Over 15.5 180s @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Matchplay: 14-13, + 2.35 Units (27 Units Staked, + 8.70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 26th)

The events being played this week have been affected by the rain and it has led to a number of matches in Umag and Lausanne that have to be played on Wednesday having originally been scheduled to be played on Tuesday.

Hamburg has also been a wet tournament, and there could be some more poor weather to come, although that is an event that has a court with a roof which is a bonus.

With the Second Round beginning and some First Round matches to be completed, Wednesday is going to be another busy day. The Tennis Picks for the day can be seen below and I am looking to push on from a winning day to try and put a strong week in the books.

Once again the main focus is on the event in Hamburg, but there are a few selections from the other events that are being played this week.

Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Strong clay court form post-Wimbledon has taken Sebastian Ofner into a career high World Ranking and his Seeding in the Umag draw meant direct entry into the Second Round.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in Bastad in the week after winning a title in Salzburg and so there has to be a confidence in his tennis right now. We did not always see that in his two tough wins last week, but this should be a favourable enough match up for Ofner on the red dirt of Umag.

Motivation may be the biggest question mark with a clay court tournament in Austria coming up next week, one that Sebastian Ofner will be targeting for a successful week. That may mean he is not ready to put in the fight he needs to really have a deep run in Umag, and Ofner is not going to be good enough to win matches without a full effort.

This potential lack of motivation is a concern for sure, but Sebastian Ofner has been given a decent draw against Alexei Popyrin who is not exactly known for his clay court pedigree. It is something of a surprise to see the Australian in Europe after Wimbledon rather than the hard courts of North America, and this is the first tournament Popyrin is playing after a disappointing grass court season as far as he is concerned.

After coming through Qualifiers, Alexei Popyrin did have solid runs at the clay court Masters events in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier this year so he cannot be written off. The serve can still be a big weapon for him, even on the slower clay courts, and that can build scoreboard pressure on opponents.

Alexei Popyrin does hold 85% of his service games that have been played on the red dirt, but that number drops a little bit when only considering matches against opponents who come in as higher Ranked players. He is 3-6 in those matches this season and Popyrin has really had issues on the return of serve, something that Sebastian Ofner has to look to exploit.

These two have split two previous meetings with Popyrin winning on the grass last year and Sebastian Ofner holding a hard court win from 2018. The clay courts should give the Austrian a bit more of an edge and he can do enough to win this match and cover this handicap mark.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Sebastian Baez: For a lot of players, a long week on the Tour can take something out of the legs and it can be hard to replicate the success of one tournament in the next one played.

However, Casper Ruud has shown he can handle the European summer after Wimbledon and is happy to head to three different clay court tournaments and expect himself to produce his best tennis in each of those.

Last week Ruud ended as Runner Up to Andrey Rublev in Bastad, but he has been given until Wednesday to begin his Hamburg efforts as he looks to win another title on the red dirt. In his career, nine of ten titles won have been in clay court events and Casper Ruud took the title home in Estoril earlier this year in an event where he beat Sebastian Baez on the way to the trophy.

That match up came in the Quarter Final, but Sebastian Baez has been struggling for form in recent weeks and an early loss in Bastad will not have helped the confidence of a player that has slipped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings. He was Number 30 back in April, which underlines the recent issues Sebastian Baez has had, although he is a solid clay courter who will need to be respected.

Unfortunately, Baez has struggled when facing the elite on the surface and has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the red dirt this season, including that straight sets loss to Casper Ruud in Estoril.

Half of the sixteen clay court matches won by Sebastian Baez this season came during the early Golden Swing in South America and his numbers have been a little weaker on serve and return since the clay court events in Europe have begun to be played.

Sebastian Baez can be dangerous on the clay courts and has taken a set from both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie on this surface this season, but Casper Ruud might be playing at a higher level than both of those players on the clay courts.

He might need a bit of time to get rolling, but Ruud should be able to create the majority of Break Points and in more return games than the other way around and he can win this match with a bit of comfort on the scoreboard.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: There haven't been too many 16 year old tennis players making the kind of impression Mirra Andreeva is doing on the Tour and the young player can make her way through to the Quarter Final in Luasanne.

This is a big spread for someone so young to cover, but Mirra Andreeva is making short work of opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts. This season she has a 20-1 record against such opponents on this surface, while Andreeva has an unbelievable 34-3 mark against players outside of the top 100 on the clay in her career.

From any player that would be impressive, but for a recently turned 16 year old, it just underlines the potential that so many believe Andreeva is destined to fulfil.

Sixteen of her twenty wins against players outside the top 50 on the clay would have seen Mirra Andreeva cover this handicap mark set and it is going to be very difficult for Anna Bondar to stay with her barring having a huge serving day.

Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 50, but injury and loss of form has seen her fall out of the top 100.

Anna Bondar has beaten Karolina Pliskova on the clay this season, but she has a 2-5 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2023. She was well beaten last week by another young Russian player, Elina Avanesyan, and it feels like a match where Bondar is going to be under immense pressure in the majority of service games played.

The Mirra Andreeva serve is still a work in progress, which is not a surprise considering her age, but the World Number 64 looks after that shot effectively enough to believe she produces another strong win here in Switzerland before yet another jump in her career best World Ranking mark.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Arnaldi - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5.43% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 3 Picks 2021 (July 26th)

The Tokyo Olympics Tennis tournament continues on Monday as we get into the Second Round of the tournament in both the Men's and Women's events.

The heat is still likely to play a huge part in the outcome of some of the matches being played, but the players have to try and focus on their tennis as they get their teeth into this event. Ashleigh Barty's defeat in the First Round will have just refocused some of the minds of the players looking to Medal at the Olympics and none of those still in the draw can take anything for granted.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: There are a number of firsts that Novak Djokovic is aiming for over the remainder of his career, but the chance to win a Golden Slam in the same calendar year is something that might cement his place as the best player to ever step on a tennis court. This is the last realistic chance for Novak Djokovic to become the first male player to complete the calendar Grand Slam with the addition of the Olympic Gold Medal and is the favourite to win this tournament as well as the US Open which will begin at the end of next month.

A comfortable First Round win has gotten the tournament going for Novak Djokovic, but it wasn't all plain-sailing as the incredibly hot conditions in Tokyo have made life difficult for all of the players in the draw. The World Number 1 has been joined by other voices to suggest the Tennis tournament should be played later in the day rather than the height of the heat, but it should not be an issue for Novak Djokovic on Monday as he goes out last on the main court.

This is the first hard court tournament Novak Djokovic has played since winning the Australian Open, but he has added the French Open and Wimbledon in the time between the first Grand Slam of the season and the Olympic Games. Over the last twelve months, Djokovic has held 87% of his hard court service games and broken in 28% of return games which sees him producing some of the best numbers on the surface and underlining his place as World Number 1.

It makes the task in front of Jan-Lennard Struff look very difficult and especially as he has lost all five previous matches against Novak Djokovic. The German won his First Round match pretty comfortably, but Jan-Lennard Struff has struggled for consistency on the hard courts over the last twelve months and particularly in the tournaments he has played in 2021.

Jan-Lennard Struff is going to need to serve incredibly well to put Novak Djokovic under pressure, but the previous head to heads between these players suggests the latter has a pretty good read of the Struff serve. The four previous hard court matches between the two have seen Novak Djokovic break serve in 43% of return games played and he has won almost half of the points played against the serve which is always going to put Jan-Lennard Struff under real pressure.

There has simply not been enough good returning from Jan-Lennard Struff to make up for that and I do think Novak Djokovic can break him down and move through relatively comfortably to the Third Round.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: The face of the Tokyo Olympics was given the honour of lighting the Olympic cauldron and Naomi Osaka has insisted she is feeling much happier after a difficult couple of months. She withdraw in the French Open and skipped Wimbledon, but Osaka looked to be in great form in her First Round win and is expected to back that up in the Second Round.

After Ashleigh Barty's surprising defeat in the First Round, Naomi Osaka is not only the top Seed left in the draw but she has already established herself as the strongest hard court player on the WTA Tour. Winning the Australian Open underlined the point and Naomi Osaka should be the favourite to win the Gold Medal.

The serve is a potent weapon for Naomi Osaka, but over the last twelve months there has been an improvement in her return game on the hard courts which has made her a hugely successful player. Being aggressive puts the pressure on her opponents and I think Naomi Osaka has also become a stronger tactical player which means she is not just going for broke on every shot.

I do think Naomi Osaka can do the same to Viktorija Golubic, although the Swiss player is coming in off a strong Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. Viktorija Golubic has performed well on the hard courts earlier this season with a title win below the main WTA Tour, while also Qualifying for Lyon and Monterrey before finishing as Runners Up in both of those tournaments too.

The return is a key part of Viktorija Golubic's tennis, but I am not sure she is going to get much change from the Naomi Osaka serve and that is going to put the lower Ranked player under pressure. We saw in her defeat to Karolina Pliskova at Wimbledon that the power and big hitting can break through the Viktorija Golubic defences and Naomi Osaka is more than capable of doing that on the hard courts.

Ultimately Golubic does not have a major serve and it should mean the match is one that Naomi Osaka can dominate. She should be comfortable within the match in what Viktorija Golubic brings to the table, and I think it should see Naomi Osaka find the breaks of serve to cover this handicap mark set.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Donna Vekic: Making a breakthrough in a Grand Slam has been a long time coming for Aryna Sabalenka, but there will be some regret she was not able to reach the Wimbledon Final having led the Semi Final by a set against Karolina Pliskova. It is another step in the development of one of the stars of the WTA Tour and Aryna Sabalenka is a confident hard court player that will be targeting a big run at the Olympic Games and the upcoming US Open.

The Belarusian has taken over from Victoria Azarenka as the top player from the nation and Aryna Sabalenka crushed Magda Linette in the First Round. That was a very encouraging start to the Tokyo Olympics, although the conditions for this tournament are far from ideal for all of the players competing.

Aryna Sabalenka has won a title on the hard courts in 2021 and she has had a couple of Quarter Final runs under her belt, while the numbers are steadily improving. The big first serve makes Sabalenka very dangerous and she is also an aggressive return player that can really get after her opponent's serve.

One criticism is that Aryna Sabalenka only has one gear and she can struggle to break the momentum when things begin to go against her, but a match against someone like Donna Vekic should be ideal for Sabalenka with both players looking to produce the big shots.

It has been a difficult year for Donna Vekic who has missed huge chunks of the Tour, and she is just 5-4 since returning at the French Open. A three set win over Caroline Garcia is the first hard court match Donna Vekic has played since the Australian Open, but this is a big step upwards in terms of opponent and the Croatian has struggled for consistency on this surface over the last twelve months.

Both players will be looking to attack any second serve they see, but I do think the recent form is going to give Aryna Sabalenka an edge in this Second Round match. Donna Vekic had won the first three matches between the pair, but the last of those was back in 2017 and Aryna Sabalenka showed how much she has improved by beating Vekic in their last meeting in San Jose in 2019.

In the two years since that match, Sabalenka is even stronger and I think she will find a way to break down Donna Vekic and eventually cover what is a wide handicap spread on paper. Aggressive returning should give Aryna Sabalenka the break points to get over the number though as long as the big first serve is working like it can do.

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: Home players might not have the same backing from the crowd as they would have done if the Tokyo Olympics had been played in front of the full stands and for some it is going to make life more difficult as they bid to beat higher Ranked players. That is the problem for Misaki Doi in this Second Round match, despite the fact she was a comfortable winner in the First Round.

Before the Olympic Games began, Misaki Doi had been struggling on the Tour and she has only produced a 5-15 record when she has faced an opponent Ranked inside the top 100. That is not very encouraging, while Doi's numbers have been pretty poor when playing those top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

The serve is vulnerable and Misaki Doi has not been able to return as well as she would have liked which has added to the pressure within matches. That has led to some very heavy defeats on the hard courts and one of those came against Belinda Bencic who is the Second Round opponent she is going to be facing in this tournament.

Belinda Bencic's World Ranking feels a little artificial at Number 12 considering the inconsistent results and performances over the last several months. She did reach the Final of a grass court tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, but Bencic was beaten in the First Round there and over the last twelve months she is barely over 0.500 in terms of matches won, while the Swiss player currently holds an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2021.

A run to the Final of a tournament in Adelaide is the best result of the year, but Belinda Bencic's general hard court performances have not been as strong as she would have liked and there have been too many early defeats. The serve can still be important for Belinda Bencic, but the last couple of seasons have seen her struggle on her return and she has the room to improve that aspect of her tennis which will see results improve.

Belinda Bencic will benefit from knowing she has gotten the better of Misaki Doi in their head to heads with a 3-0 win-loss record in her favour. One of those came earlier this year as I have mentioned above, although this should be closer if Misaki Doi is able to win the big points much more effectively than she did in that match in Adelaide.

Even then you would have to give Belinda Bencic a serious edge and I think she can work her way past one of the home hopes in the Tennis tournament in Tokyo. Belinda Bencic should have enough to cover the handicap mark on her way through to the Third Round as Misaki Doi's serve perhaps lets her down over the course of this match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 7-4, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 26th)

The final day of the Premier League season is here... But the decision has already been made that the 2020/21 season will begin on September 12th.

Before that there is the small matter of concluding the Championship Play Offs, the Europa League and Champions League Knock Out ties and the FA Cup Final which will all be played in the next month. It does mean some teams will have a very short amount of time to prepare for the new season and the players will have a limited break before they asked to come back and get ready to go again.

The 2020/21 season looks like it is going to be tightly packed in when you think the Euro 2020 tournament will begin on June 11th and knowing that domestic seasons will have to be wrapped up before then. The FA Cup Final is almost certainly going to be played before the season ends on May 23rd and I think we will soon hear that the Replays have been scrapped and those involved in European competitions will be exempt from taking part in the League Cup for one season.

It has to be done and it is going to be a difficult time for managers especially with the loaded Christmas schedule in England and the likely removal of the Winter Break for a season too. The Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches are to played on consecutive weeks with the only breaks being for Nations League fixtures and I do wonder if the Euro 2020 tournament will suffer as so many of the top players are effectively going to be played for almost eleven months straight when that event gets going.


Things will shape up interestingly over the coming months, while fans who have Season Tickets for clubs, like myself, are wondering when we will be allowed back in Stadiums. It is almost a certainty that crowds will be limited and phased back, but for a club like Manchester United with over 40,000 Season Ticket Holders it is much more difficult to know how they can appease everybody.

Away fans are almost certainly going to be excluded from Stadiums until the next calendar year and watching on TV is simply not the same experience for many of us.


It is all about safety though and I wouldn't be keen on returning to 70,000 plus spectators packed into Stadiums as soon as October, especially not knowing what a second spike in Coronavirus cases are going to look like before we get a vaccine or at least something that reduces symptoms.

So for now we have to take what we can and simply having sports to enjoy is not something we should be taking for granted after the developments this year.


Onto the final day of the Premier League and the final Fantasy Football GameWeek of the prolonged season- you will see my thoughts about GW38+ below.

Before that you can read how I think the final round of fixtures will progress which is also going to play a huge part on how I use my Free Hit Chip.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: It is a little under three years ago when Troy Deeney questioned the 'cajones' of the Arsenal team that had just blown a lead and lost 2-1 at Vicarage Road. This comment has helped increase the rivalry between the clubs, but Arsenal have responded by beating Watford three times in a row since then and were 0-2 up at Vicarage Road before settling for a 2-2 draw earlier this season.

Some things have changed at the Emirates Stadium, but there are enough players left over from October 2017 who would be looking to show Deeney that Arsenal have got plenty of fight in them.

The bonus is that a home win would likely be good enough to relegate Watford to the Championship and coming off the defeat to Aston Villa it would be ironic for Deeney and his team-mates if Arsenal are the team who effectively sent them down by losing to their relegation rivals and then beating Watford themselves.

There isn't much for Arsenal to play for which is contributing to their price, but Mikel Arteta will be demanding a reaction to the defeat at Villa Park. Poor finishing let them down that day, but Arsenal have been better at the Emirates Stadium where they have won 5 of their last 7 in the Premier League and the players are fighting for FA Cup Final places which should be motivation enough.

Just because Watford 'need' the points more than Arsenal it doesn't mean the motivation is necessarily higher in the away dressing room. The Cup Final is motivation enough for Arsenal and the Watford players have admitted confidence is not in a great place after the 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City and losing manager Nigel Pearson so late in the campaign after he gave them every chance to avoid the drop.

Watford have lost 5 away Premier League games in a row and have only scored a single goal in that run, that being a consolation at West Ham United. They were blown away in the first half that day and Arsenal will be hard to pull back if the home team can take advantage of any slow beginning Watford make in this one.

The Hornets have lost their last 2 visits to the Emirates Stadium and I do think Arsenal will be too good for them on Sunday too. There wasn't a lot of fight in the Watford team in their last couple of Premier League games and I do think Arsenal have been stronger at home under Mikel Arteta and they have the strong attacking players that can take this game away from their visitors.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: A strong season comes to a close for both Burnley and Brighton on Sunday and there really isn't a lot to play for.

Games like this can be surprisingly entertaining as neither team has anything to lose, but I think the motivation in the home dressing room may be a touch higher than in normal circumstances. This season there are rumours that Sean Dyche will be managing his last game for Burnley at Turf Moor and that should have the players looking to end the season on a high and let the directors and board know they want Dyche to be kept around.

Burnley are unbeaten in 6 at Turf Moor, although 4 of those fixtures have ended in draws.

The draw might be a big player for those looking at trends considering Brighton have drawn 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games too and it does make this a difficult fixture to get a good read on.

My edge has to be with Burnley who don't concede a lot of goals but seem to create chances at Turf Moor. However Brighton do play attractive football and they will want to get forward and challenge a Burnley team who have conceded a single goal in 3 of their last 4 home games.

Honestly I can see this fixture going a number of different ways, but the home team players look like good shouts for those who want a cheap defender to throw into their Fantasy teams in GW38+.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: This is a huge game for both Chelsea and Wolves and the onus is largely on Wolves to get on the front foot and try and win the game.

Both teams are chasing European berths, the former in the Champions League and the latter in the Europa League, but Chelsea can afford a draw to achieve their ambitions. A draw is less rewarding for Wolves who would need Tottenham Hotspur to fail to win at Crystal Palace to earn a Europa League spot.

Otherwise a fall into 7th place will mean Wolves will need Chelsea to beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final or have to win the Europa League next month to return to European Football which is very important to the development of the club.

Wolves won't be intimidated by having to win here and they will be encouraged by some of the recent defensive performances produced by Chelsea. The Blues are susceptible to good set pieces and Wolves are very capable of exposing them there, while Raul Jimenez continues to make use of limited spaces to find the back of the net.

It certainly wouldn't be in Frank Lampard's thinking to play for the draw which would guarantee Chelsea a top half finish. In recent games they might have defended poorly, but they have looked a real menace going forward and I expect Lampard will be looking for his team to take the game to Wolves and secure their place in the premier European competition behind a strong performance.

They created plenty in their 5-3 loss at Liverpool during the week and I do think Chelsea can have some positive moments in this fixture too. The attacking players will feel they can break down what is a stubborn Wolves team and the situation may see both teams having to 'go for broke' at different times during the ninety minutes.

2 of the last 3 games between these clubs have finished with at least three goals shared out and I think that is the direction this fixture will go. Chelsea are plenty short despite the fact they have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge, but they do score goals here and Wolves will feel the fact they have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions will see them create chances here.

Things may really open up in the second half and I think it will be one of the higher scoring fixtures of the final day.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There might not be much for Crystal Palace to play for in the final game of the 2019/20 season, but Roy Hodgson will be urging his players to produce one more big effort and snap their 7 game losing run in the Premier League.

It is a big ask of a small squad which has been decimated by injury and suspension and the problems in defence have become too much for Crystal Palace to cover up. They have been conceding goals for fun in the last month and Crystal Palace have lost 3 in a row at Selhurst Park while conceding at least twice to Chelsea and Manchester United.

That is not the kind of form you want to be displaying when coming up against Harry Kane and Tottenham Hotspur who are ending the season surging towards the Europa League. A win on Sunday might be enough for Spurs to be back in European competition in the 2020/21 season and Jose Mourinho has made it clear he wants to be involved as it gives him a chance to make use of his squad and offer another avenue back into the Champions League.

Back to back wins while scoring three times will be a huge confidence boost for Tottenham Hotspur and Harry Kane has scored four times in those wins over Newcastle United and Leicester City. The win at St James' Park ended a poor away run and will have given Tottenham Hotspur plenty of belief they can secure another victory on Sunday.

Playing a team with the issues Crystal Palace have should be perfect for Tottenham Hotspur and Kane being in form should give the visitors a big edge. They have won 4 Premier League games in succession at Selhurst Park and I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have enough attacking outlets to secure a win here while continuing the poor trend of conceding goals that Crystal Palace have had of late.


Everton v Bournemouth Pick: Things have become very clear for Bournemouth after their 0-2 home defeat to Southampton was followed by Aston Villa beating Arsenal at Villa Park.

Now they need both Watford and Aston Villa to lose and at the same time win at Goodison Park- even then it will come down to goal difference.

Ultimately Bournemouth have to get forward and score goals to have any chance of extending their stay in the Premier League and that could leave them very open to an Everton team who have a long unbeaten run at Goodison Park to protect. The home players can't afford to take things easy with Carlo Ancelotti making it clear he is analysing the squad and looking to improve it between seasons.

That should keep Everton interested and they may have spaces to exploit when Bournemouth begin to get desperate and chase the game. I think that will make the difference on the day as Everton use their quality in the final third to just create enough chances against this porous Bournemouth defence to allow them to finish the season with a positive victory behind them.

Everton have not finished the season in the manner the manager would have wanted, but the win at Sheffield United last Monday suggests they have enough motivation to win this one too.


Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: It feels like none of the three teams chasing two Champions League places in the Premier League have really wanted to finish in those places as they keep slipping up when opportunities have been presented to them.

Going into the final day it is Chelsea and Manchester United who control their own destinies, but both clubs are facing difficult fixtures against 'upstarts' who want to get into the European places too.

Manchester United visit the King Power Stadium and I think both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Brendan Rodgers would take being in this position going into the final day.

Brendan Rodgers will know his Leicester City should have secured a top four place, but back in August he would have very much signed up for having to win their final home game to earn Champions League Football. The form over the last several months has not been good enough, but Leicester City have won their last 2 games here as they look to bounce back from a very disappointing 3-0 loss in North London at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.

Beating Crystal Palace and Sheffield United with clean sheets will give Leicester City some belief at home, while this is a team who have created some very good chances in recent games. That is a marked improvement to last month when Leicester City were struggling to create chances, and Rodgers will believe his team can expose what has been a vulnerable Manchester United defence over the last two weeks.

In saying that Manchester United have kept 3 away clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and they have scored at least twice in each of those games to secure wins. Those have come at Brighton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and Manchester United have had some fortune in those matches to turn things in their favour.

The 1-1 draw with West Ham United during the week does mean the onus is on Leicester City to get forward and that should be something that Manchester United look to exploit. The front three will have more space than they had against The Hammers and it is all about making good decisions in the final third against a Leicester City team who are missing key personnel in defensive areas.

The first goal could be huge and it will open up the game with the teams chasing results barring news coming through that Wolves are winning by a wide margin at Stamford Bridge. In that case they could both settle for a convenient draw, but I would expect the match to start off fairly open as both Leicester City and Manchester United look for the goals to put them in a strong position regardless of what is going on in West London.

Both teams have been creating chances at home/away respectively and there is some tiredness and fatigue which is perhaps making life more difficult for the defenders to contain their attacking opponents.

I do think both will have chances to score and the 1-1 might be suitable if Wolves are winning well going into the final twenty minutes. I do think that is unlikely to be the case so both managers will be looking to secure their top four berth by finding the result they need and I think goals could be the outcome of this one too.

In the last couple of seasons games between these teams have tended to be relatively competitive and low-scoring, but the situation is clear for both and the need to score goals could open things up. A late goal either way is not out of the question if one has to chase and I think there are enough strong attacking players that can make the difference for their team.


Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: This is one of the Premier League games with nothing riding on it on the final day of the season, but Manchester City should be plenty motivated to keep the momentum going before they face Real Madrid in the Champions League.

The 0-4 win over Watford on Tuesday shows the side are not going to ease into the end of the Premier League campaign, while not many associated with the club will have forgotten losing to Norwich City in September 2019.

It was the best performance of the season from Daniel Farke's side, but as the months have progressed it has become clear that Norwich City are not really cut out for this level. They are going to finish bottom of the pile and Norwich City have lost 9 Premier League games in a row and only managed to score a single goal in that time.

Expecting them to hurt Manchester City is a big ask, and it is going to be a long day trying to contain a team who are looking to move back into the Champions League with some momentum behind them.

The worry for Norwich City has to be how Manchester City have flowed through the gears when they have gotten in front in games since the resumption of play. The likes of Burnley, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Brighton and Watford have all been seen off by four or more goal margins, while Bournemouth were 2-0 down before half time in the last game at the Etihad Stadium.

Granted Bournemouth at least fought back and deserved more than they got, but Norwich City have not shown an ability to do that in recent months. The Canaries have not been blown away too often and only narrowly lost at Stamford Bridge in their last away Premier League game, but Liverpool, Manchester United, Wolves and Arsenal have all beaten Norwich City by three or more goals at home this season.

On current form it is very difficult to imagine this not being a one-sided home win and I do think Norwich City could have a very long day in the office if they fall behind early in this one. Manchester City will want to earn a measure of revenge for the away loss at Norwich City and they will want to give David Silva a strong sending off in his last Premier League game for the club.

They should have far too much for their visitors on Sunday and Manchester City likely win by a very comfortable margin.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: If this was part of the fixture list in September or October you would likely lean to a comfortable Liverpool win, but the team have not finished the season with a flourish.

A 5-3 home win over Chelsea shows that Liverpool have far from downed tools, but the team have struggled for consistency away from home. That is going to have to be factored into this one, although the injuries in the Newcastle United squad does make the home team vulnerable too.

Tottenham Hotspur recently won 1-3 here and I do think Liverpool will pick a strong team, although it is hard to really select any of their assets for the Fantasy game. Liverpool have not defended well enough to really want to pick one of those players at a premium price, while the front three have been rotated and none are showing consistent form in the final third.

I still think Liverpool will have too much, but it is a more difficult game to read as players begin to think about their short break before they begin preparing for the 2020/21 season. I expect the away team to win pretty handily on the day, but Newcastle United shouldn't roll over and I expect a challenge from them.

Ultimately I expect an away win on the day and likely one by a comfortable enough margin to clear the handicap.


Southampton v Sheffield United Pick: Two teams who have had very strong seasons meet on the final day and both Southampton and Sheffield United should want to produce some football to celebrate how well the season has gone for them.

Both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Chris Wilder will be looking for one more big effort from the players before a short break and the end of season form has been decent enough from both to expect a good outing.

However, Southampton have been a little more consistent and I would give them the edge over a Sheffield United team who have missed out on European Football over the last few days.

Southampton have not played as well at St Mary's as they have away from home which raises some doubts as to whether they can finish the campaign with another win. They are facing a Sheffield United team who have lost their last two games without scoring a goal and who have looked a little leggy in recent games.

It should be competitive and perhaps even a fun fixture with both teams looking to attack, but my narrow lean is with Southampton and Danny Ings perhaps edging close to picking up the Golden Boot.


West Ham United v Aston Villa Pick: For a number of weeks most would have pointed to this final day fixture as being a pivotal one in terms of the relegation places in the Premier League.

Unsurprisingly it has remained the case for Aston Villa, but West Ham United have secured Premier League Football by picking up 11 points from their last 18 available. They are mathematically secure of top flight football after the 1-1 draw at Manchester United during the week, but West Ham United will be looking for a strong end to the campaign with the momentum needed to have a much brighter beginning to the 2020/21 season coming up.

The side have won 3 of their last 5 at the London Stadium and West Ham United have been creating a lot of chances in those fixtures as they built some confidence.

It is not what Aston Villa would want to hear, but Dean Smith has to be very pleased with his team who have secured 7 points from a possible 9 to move out of the bottom three in the Premier League table. That will have given his players confidence as they hold a narrow edge over Watford and will feel matching whatever result achieved by The Hornets at the Emirates Stadium will be enough to secure survival.

A defeat will leave Aston Villa vulnerable to Bournemouth too, but a draw would likely be a result they will take right now. Only a Watford win at Arsenal would relegate Aston Villa in that situation, but I do think the layers are perhaps overestimating the visitors just because they 'need' the points more than their hosts.

West Ham United are playing well and Aston Villa are a team that can lack goals. If the home team get one you would find it hard to believe they are going to lose this game and I think there may even come a point where Aston Villa would settle for that result, but I do believe the more likely winner is the home team even if the odds don't say the same.

Aston Villa have not won any of their last 11 away games in all competitions and have not beaten West Ham United in East London in their last 4 attempts to do so. Earlier this season it ended in a goalless draw at Villa Park and I do think West Ham United showed enough at Old Trafford to believe they won't be lying down for their visitors on Sunday afternoon.

The home team should be good enough to avoid defeat at the least and that will at least leave the door open for a surprising end to the season in terms of the relegation places.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap
Chelsea-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Everton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap
West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 38+

GameWeek 37+ could not have been much more miserable for the Fantasy team I selected as the prolonged reliance on the Liverpool defence came back to bite me.

Manchester United also were a big letdown and are now involved in a huge game at Leicester City as they bid to return to the Champions League, while the lack of returns from the Manchester City assets despite a 0-4 win at Watford has to sting.

It was frustrating, but I can still win a number of localised Leagues and also want to break back into the top 100K for the season by ending the campaign with the Free Hit Chip being used.

My Free Hit seems to be easy to use- I want to fill up with Manchester City assets playing Norwich City at home and also use the Tottenham Hotspur players at injury hit Crystal Palace in a game they have to win.

Filling in the gaps will determine how much I can invest in other areas, but you can see some of my thinking below in the knowledge that I will be making changes right up until the 3pm deadline on Sunday afternoon.

I did have David Silva in my original thinking, but there is this fear that he could be brought off at 21 minutes with a 'guard of honour' on his final appearance for Manchester City in the Premier League. Otherwise I would expect him to have every chance to take all of the direct free kicks and penalties that may come City's way even though Raheem Sterling is chasing down a milestone in the League.

I think Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne will both play to maintain some rhythm ahead of the big Champions League game against Real Madrid. Riyad Mahrez didn't start on Tuesday and is expected to return, while Gabriel Jesus is another who needs the confidence boost of starting and scoring goals so all four players are in my thinking.

For Tottenham Hotspur the three players I am most considering are Serge Aurier, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane. You have to feel for Aurier who had a personal heartache earlier this month when his brother was killed in France, but he has continued to play and is a potential assist maker, while playing a goal-shy Crystal Palace has to help.

Harry Kane has scored four goals in two League games and will lead the line again, while Lucas Moura could be a cheap option in the midfield against a team who have conceded at least three times in three home games in a row.

Christian Pulisic, Raul Jimenez, Jamie Vardy, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are all options in what I feel will be high-scoring games.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could have more spaces to exploit against a Bournemouth team chasing goals, while Michail Antonio and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have home games against relegation threatened clubs that may have to take chances at some point too.

My thinking on the final day is to not spend too much on the defensive players on what is usually a high-scoring round. Teams are not concentrating as much as they would be earlier in the season and with the upcoming break for many I do think there will be less desire to keep the ball out of the net for many.

There are some cheap options out there which enables me to pick a very strong front seven that could at least help produce a big week.

I will update this thread around 2pm on Sunday with a few final thoughts about how the squad is shaping up, but it does look a week in which there are a number of players that could provide big points if at their best.


[UPDATE] As we enter the final hour of the final GW of the 2019/20 season this is the time to try and avoid overthinking things.

There are going to be rumours about 'breaking' team news and you also have to accept there will be some strange selections made by the managers who have less to play for. With that in mind I am trying to keep those having something to play for onside and that includes Manchester City preparing for a Champions League tie in less than two weeks time.

My final decision looks to be going 'weak' at the back with cheap options to make up the three and then hit the front seven as hard as possible. I will keep a couple of good subs on the bench in case of changes by managers and hopefully it will be a strong end to the season.

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 26th)

It has been the kind of week where a player serves for the match, and the cover, but fails to do that and misses out by one game.

At the time of writing the final Tennis Pick from Thursday has yet to be played. I will update the weekly totals on Friday morning, but the selections from Friday Quarter Final matches can be seen below.

Any selections from Atlanta will be added once the full Quarter Final markets have been formulated.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Twelve months ago Dominic Thiem was beaten in the Quarter Final of the Hamburg Open and he is looking to move at least one step further in 2019. The Number 1 Seed is the big favourite to beat Andrey Rublev on Friday, but Dominic Thiem will know he will need to be a lot more effective when it comes to the break points if he is going to make this match go his way.

On the face of things you would make the Austrian a big favourite anyway when you consider Rublev's history on the clay courts, but the young Russian has been in good form so far this week.

Both of his wins have been solid as Rublev has got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve. This has been a relatively strong part of his game anyway, but Rublev has to be pleased with his run at Hamburg having won 43% of return points and breaking serve in 30% of return games played.

The serve is perhaps not as strong as Rublev would like, but he has won 65% of points played behind that shot. That is a few clicks higher than his overall clay court numbers in 2019, but Rublev has still had a few issues getting through all of his service games with holds in 76% of service games played this week despite the improvement as far as points won behind serve are concerned.

Now he has to play someone like Dominic Thiem who is at his most comfortable when it comes to playing tennis on the clay courts. Two wins over Pablo Cuevas and Marton Fucsovics has seen Thiem win all four wins sets played, and his serve has been a potent weapon with 95% of service holds secured in those victories.

Dominic Thiem was not as effective on the break points as much as he would have liked in the Second Round win over Fucsovics, but he has still broken in 26% of return games played. He has been able to put enough pressure on the return of serve to break his opponent's down, but Thiem will have to be a little more productive at the big points to ensure this is not another tough battle.

These two players met in Monte Carlo eighteen months ago and it was a close, competitive match between the players on the clay courts. Dominic Thiem edged that one, but he can make this a little more simple as long as he can take a couple more of the break points in this match than he has in his last couple of matches.


Pablo Carreno Busta v Fabio Fognini: Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fabio Fognini are very comfortable playing on the clay courts and they meet for a place in the Semi Final of Hamburg on Friday. Both players have won all four sets they have played in the first two Rounds so confidence should not be a big factor, although Carreno Busta may have the mental edge.

The Spaniard has won all six previous matches against Fabio Fognini and that includes three wins on the clay courts, although they have not played on this surface since 2017. Fabio Fognini has had slightly better fortunes playing Carreno Busta on the clay compared to their overall record, but the latter has had the edge with 77% of service games held compared with Fognini's 65%.

Pablo Carreno Busta has had a slight edge on the service points won too, which won't be a surprise considering those hold numbers, and I think mentally he may have the advantage in this one.

It does have to be said that Pablo Carreno Busta's return of serve has been very important for him in his two wins this week and he is playing at a significantly higher level than what he has managed in 2019 on this surface overall. This week he has won 44% of return points and broken in 35% of return games which is a significant improvement on his 2018 and 2019 numbers on the surface.

Maintaining that level will obviously be a challenge for Carreno Busta considering the numbers set in the last eighteen months, but he will be playing with some belief considering the success he has had against Fognini.

The Italian has had some strong runs on the clay in 2019, but he has been inconsistent with his level of play. This week it looks like we have got Fabio Fognini in some of his better form with 85% of service games held and breaks of serve in 33% of return games played. The serve has been a slight weakness for Fabio Fognini in general though and I expect Carreno Busta to challenge him in that regards.

Both players will be full of belief that their level can see off the other, but I am favouring Carreno Busta thanks to the head to head advantage and his general play on the clay courts. This week we have seen both players win their matches with some relative comfort, but I think Carreno Busta deserves the credit for having the best win of the two having seen off Jan-Lennard Struff in the Second Round.

At close to pick 'em prices, I will back Pablo Carreno Busta here.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.94 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.70% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 26th)

The Canadian Masters in Toronto and the Premier Event in Montreal both got underway on Monday, but it looks like the rain which has been affecting European tournaments since the French Open has followed the Tour across the pond.

It was Montreal which suffered the most on Monday with long rain delays throughout the course of the day, but at least the rest of the week looks better from a weather point of view. Unfortunately for fans of the ATP Tour, the Toronto tournament could see rain affect both Friday and Saturday which would not be good news for the organisers with the Rio Olympics due to begin next week.

Hopefully that won't be an issue and we do get to see plenty of good tennis this week, even if the sight of using towels to clean courts at these big events is still baffling to me. There has to be a better way of getting the courts cleaned quicker than a ballboy with a towel can do, but I also do think that these organisers and the USTA would have checked for other options (the Grand Slam in New York is almost laughable seeing people with towels trying to clean down courts).


On Tuesday some of the top Seeds will be in action as the tournaments move onto the Second Round while also completing the remaining First Round matches.


Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: Backing up title wins is tough for any player on the Tour but it might be even more difficult for Gael Monfils who returned in Washington to some kind of form after injury. The Frenchman played very well last week and deserved his title win over the course of the week, although Monfils had to pull out the win over Ivo Karlovic from a really tough position.

Now Monfils moves on to Canada and I do have to say I like his chances of winning the First Round match against Joao Sousa. The latter has not had a lot of positive results on the hard courts and he has been spending his time in Europe on the clay courts ahead of this match which can't be the best preparation to take on an in-form opponent.

This is simply not Sousa's favourite time of the year and it might be even more difficult than normal considering his recent form. Defeats in Bastad and Umag came in disappointing fashion and that is going to have dented confidence before he heads onto the hard courts on which Sousa has struggled.

The matches under Monfils' belt last week have to be a concern in terms of tiredness, particularly when you consider the energy he put into the Final on Sunday. However, I am going to back the Frenchman to continue his strong form from Washington and have enough for a 63, 64 win.


Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Like Gael Monfils, Ivo Karlovic was involved in a long, draining Final on Sunday and one of the oldest players on the Tour is beginning a third full week on the Tour. After winning the title in Newport and reaching the Final in Washington, Karlovic has played a lot of tennis of late and I do wonder if that will take its toll on him.

The Karlovic game isn't one that is too taxing on him, but he has to be mentally drained from the long matches he has played and the way he lost the Final to Monfils. However I think his serve remains a big weapon and Karlovic will be looking to use that to keep the pressure on youngster Taylor Fritz.

The American has a pretty big serve himself, but Fritz might just have hit a wall on what is a long Tour for a young player to become accustomed to. The hard courts might be his favourite time of the season, but a lot of losses in recent weeks means he might not be playing the big points as effectively as he would like and that is an issue against an opponent who won't offer up a lot of chances.

Another strong serving display from Karlovic will put a lot of pressure on Fritz not to make any mistakes on his own serve and that can be tough to deal with. If the veteran is over the disappointment of losing in the Final on Sunday, I think Karlovic might have enough still in the tank to come through and win this match 76, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: A First Round come from behind win over Ivan Dodig has set Borna Coric up with a big Second Round match against Tomas Berdych. He has been beaten twice by Berdych over the last thirteen months, and Coric will have to be an improved player in this one compared to what he has produced in recent weeks if he is going to challenge the Wimbledon Semi Finalist.

I do think Berdych is on the slide in his own career too and has missed the boat when it comes to winning a Grand Slam title. Berdych still has a pretty big game, but the serve can be vulnerable as he doesn't back it up as well as he has in the past and that will encourage Coric.

However Berdych is also a decent enough returner to get joy out of the Coric serve which had been put under pressure by Dodig in the First Round. It has been an inconsistent season for the young Croatian and the hard courts can see him put under pressure when not serving as well as he can, while Coric has also had the tendency to be broken a couple of times in a set on this surface.

Take away the run to the Final in Chennai to open the season and Coric is just 5-6 on the hard courts while he would have gone 1-5 in those losses when it comes to covering this number of games. It has only been two occasions on the hard courts that Coric has been an underdog of at least 4.00 this season and both times he has been beaten by at least a five game margin and I am backing Berdych to cover this number too.


Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There have been three previous matches between Mikhail Youzhny and Stan Wawrinka on the hard courts and it is Youzhny who has won all three matches. All of those have come on the North American hard courts, but the last of those was at the US Open in 2010 and it isn't an underestimation to say that both players have moved in different directions since then.

For starters Wawrinka is now a two time Grand Slam Champion and he will be the favourite to win this match- the other three meetings on the hard courts all saw Youzhny go in as the favourite.

The veteran Russian has also slipped down the World Rankings and he hasn't had too much hard court tennis under his belt at this level through 2016. The last few weeks have seen Youzhny rather take in the clay courts in Europe before heading to Toronto, although he did come through his First Round match fairly comfortably.

It can be hard to trust Wawrinka when it comes to these big numbers as he can go off the boil very quickly, but the Swiss player has been strong on the hard courts. He has two titles on the hard courts already and I think he will have the majority of break point chances. As long as Wawrinka can take care in the big points, I think he will be strong enough to come through with a 63, 64 win against an opponent who has slipped and will give up chances on the serve.


Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There might only be two places between these players in the World Rankings, but for me there are chasms in terms of the potential Daria Kasatkina has compared with Misaki Doi. The latter is a solid enough player on the Tour, but not someone who will be expected win a Grand Slam title, while Kasatkina has plenty of people believing she could be one of the leading lights once Serena Williams calls it a day.

This is the first time Doi and Kasatkina will be meeting on the Tour and I can see a match that has a number of extended rallies. Neither player can really look for their serve to help them to many cheap points and both players should have their chances to break throughout the match.

Both players have had some good results on the hard courts in 2016, but it is Doi who has won a title and then reached the Final of another tournament. However she has not had a lot of success in other tournaments and I think Kasatkina is the better player in the contest and will show that even if Doi has had a hard court tournament under her belt since Wimbledon.

12 of Doi's 17 defeats on the hard courts over the last twelve months have come in straight sets and my belief that Kasatkina will win this one means I will back her to cover this number.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: 2016 has not been a strong year for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and she looks on course for her fewest wins on the main Tour since 2012. However he run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon must have given her confidence and she will need that to maintain her World Ranking with a lot of points to defend over the next few months.

After Wimbledon last year, Pavlyuchenkova reached two Quarter Finals, one Semi Final, two Finals and won a title which is keeping her Number 19 World Ranking in place. The pressure is on for her to match those kind of results or face a significant drop in her World Ranking despite that performance at Wimbledon and Pavlyuchenkova comes into this match trying to snap a four match losing run on the hard courts.

Yulia Putintseva is an improving player on the Tour and this is already a career best year as she looks to keep the World Ranking moving upwards. A run to the Semi Final in Washington last week would give her confidence and Putintseva will believe she can get Pavlyuchenkova moving on the court with her defensive skills which can extract mistakes from the Russian's game.

However the faster surfaces should suit Pavlyuchenkova to puncture the Putintseva defences and that is where I believe she will have an edge. A further edge comes from the serve which is a strength for Pavlyuchenkova and I think she can battle past a player that has played a lot of tennis in the last week with a 64, 46, 64 win.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shelby Rogers: Johanna Konta won her first WTA title last week at the Premier Event in Stanford and that has seen her rise to Number 14 in the World Rankings. It has been a remarkable year for Konta and she looks very comfortable playing at the biggest tournaments, while another strong run in Montreal will see her come close to cracking the top 10.

It can be difficult backing up big weeks like the one Konta has just had and she is facing an awkward opponent in Shelby Rogers. The American had a great run at the French Open, but it was a surprising one on the clay courts, while Rogers' hard court form has not been the most inspiring.

Since reaching the Third Round in Montreal two years ago, Rogers is 9-16 on the hard courts in main level Tour events, including Qualifiers in those events. However that number has been improved by five wins at the US Open in 2015 and Rogers has struggled with her movement on the faster surface which takes away the time players have in striking the ball.

If Konta is serving well that will only up the pressure on Rogers even more in this one, although I am not always keen on backing title winners in their first match the following week. There hasn't been a lot of time for Konta to digest her win in Stanford, but I think she has the mental strength to look for another big run and I will back her to beat Rogers by at least a five game margin.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There will be a little bit of revenge at play after Daria Gavrilova surprised Simona Halep in a three set win in Rome earlier this year. This is the first match back on the hard courts for Halep after taking in her home tournament in Bucharest since her Semi Final defeat at Wimbledon and it has been an inconsistent season for her to this point.

After a poor start in 2016, Halep did reach a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts in Indian Wells and Miami. Halep also has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks having reached the Final in Canada and Cincinnati last year while also reaching the Semi Final at the US Open.

A run to the Fourth Round in her new home tournament at the Australian Open is the highlight of Gavrilova's year, but she hasn't had a lot of success on the hard courts since then. The disappointment for Gavrilova has to be the fact she has lost her last three hard court matches as the favourite and I do wonder if the Australian is perhaps still being a little over-rated on this surface thanks to that performance in Melbourne.

Gavrilova also went 3-6 on the hard courts following Wimbledon last year and through to the US Open. While she has the groundstrokes to hurt Halep, I think the latter will be more consistent and that can help her through to a 64, 63 win in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.42 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.20% Yield)