Tennis Picks 2023 (July 29th)

The tournaments being played this week are into the Semi Final stage on Saturday and I have something to build upon from Friday having seen the Tennis Picks end up with a 4-1 day.

It is the best single day since Wimbledon, and it was nice to be on the right side of a capitulation having had some tough luck losses of late.

With the tournaments winding down, there are only a handful of matches scheduled to be played and that is also because of the rain in Warsaw which means that event is playing catch up through Saturday.

Anna Bondar v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The tournament in Lausanne has seen some surprises this week and it has been an important one for the players who are trying to pick up some vital World Ranking points ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season. Many playing here will be much more comfortable on the clay courts compared with the hard courts and so there may not feel like a lot of opportunities to improve Rankings over the next month.

It has been a tough twelve months for Anna Bondar, but winning the tournament this weekend will mean pushing back into the top 100. This will give her plenty of motivation and her performances in her three wins here this week have been solid, especially behind serve.

A good win over Mirra Andreeva will have given Anna Bondar some confidence, but this is the toughest test she might be facing this week against Elisabetta Cocciaretto who is already assured of a new career high World Ranking inside the top 40. Winning the title might mean cracking the top 30 and giving her a chance of being Seeded for the US Open draw next month and there is no doubt how well Cocciaretto is playing after coming from 5-0 down to win thirteen of sixteen games in her Quarter Final win on Friday.

Both players have produced very strong returning numbers, but Anna Bondar has gotten a little more out of her serve and that could be the difference for the underdog in this Semi Final.

That was the case when Bondar beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto last year on the clay courts, although the improvement of the Italian over the last year and the loss of form of Bondar is likely to mean this one is more competitve.

Even with that in mind, Anna Bondar might just be able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve, especially the first serve, and that may make the difference for her in a week where she has found some of her best tennis. Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was Ranked Number 50 and she has shown enough quality on the clay courts to beat a specialist like Elisabetta Cocciaretto as the underdog.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: This is an ATP 500 event being played in Hamburg so there are some big names that have entered the draw.

It makes this Semi Final all the more surprising, although both Laslo Djere and Zhizhen Zhang deserve their place in the final four having produced some quality wins already this week.

Out of the two players, Laslo Djere can argue he has had the stronger victories compared with Zhizhen Zhang and that could be key in helping get through this tough Semi Final. It is going to be difficult, but it is a winnable match for Djere, although Zhizhen Zhang has to be given a lot of respect for producing his best tennis when playing higher Ranked players than himself.

However, his best win this week has been against the World Number 45 and that does not compare to the victory Laslo Djere produced against defending Champion Lorenzo Musetti.

The serve has been a big weapon this week, but Djere has shown a bit more consistency on the return compared with his overall numbers on the clay courts, while Zhang has been overachieving. Zhizhen Zhang has found a way to get to Break Points even though his return has not been the best on the surface in 2023 and he has played those points really well, but Zhang may also need a bit more out of his serve to win this match.

Both have served well in the conditions and have to be respected, but Laslo Djere looks to be performing a little bit better and can earn the edge over the course of a couple of hours on court in this Semi Final match up.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: Any player that can hand out the kind of one-sided beating that Arthur Fils put together against Casper Ruud has to be respected.

Doing so on the grass would be perhaps not so notable, but Fils crushed Ruud in the Hamburg Quarter Final on a clay court and there is no doubting the kind of confidence boost this could offer the young Frenchman.

He saw his compatriot Luca Van Assche struggle to make much of an impact against Alexander Zverev on Friday, but Arthur Fils may feel his overall game is much bigger than Van Assche's and that makes him more dangerous.

However, Arthur Fils may need to find another level even to the one he produced against Casper Ruud if he is going to be Alexander Zverev in this Semi Final. The home player has been well supported in Hamburg and Zverev has been a very strong winner in all three matches played here and is serving at a huge level.

This has allowed Zverev to really have a go when it comes to the return of serve and he has broken at least three times in all three wins. While Arthur Fils had a strong serving day in the Quarter Final, he was given more of an examination by Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round and the Fils numbers have been far overachieving his overall performance on the clay courts.

Like his opponent, Arthur Fils has used his strong serving to give him some freedom on the return of serve and that has certainly worked for him in his three wins in Hamburg.

Playing against Alexander Zverev should be much tougher and Arthur Fils will struggle to match the emotion of his Quarter Final win. It makes it all the more difficult considering how well Zverev is playing this week and the home fans can push their favourite through to the Final.

MY PICKS: Anna Bondar to Win @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10, - 1.60 Units (42 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 28th)

The Quarter Finals take centre stage on Friday at the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Hamburg event is already into the Semi Final Round.

Any selections from the ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals will be added to this thread on Friday, but the four Picks from the other events can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: It sounds like Alexander Zverev is going to deal with the latest allegations made against him very much in the same manner as he did the first and it has seemingly made little effect on his tennis.

He was beaten in the Quarter Final in Bastad last week, but that was against a quality player in Andrey Rublev and it is the kind of result that may have happened at any time. If there was an impact from the latest news headlines, that has not been backed up by Alexander Zverev's performances in Hamburg this week as he has produced two solid wins and the fans have not really been on his back.

This looks like another very winnable match up for him when taking on Frenchman Luca Van Assche, who was perhaps a little fortunate to come from a set behind to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round.

Luca Van Assche has proven to have a pretty effective return on the clay courts, but he is facing a big serving Alexander Zverev who has faced just three Break Points in his two wins in Hamburg. The second serve is where Van Assche has to expect to get some joy, but Alexander Zverev is getting in a high percentage of first serves and you have to believe that he will largely contain the threat from the other end of the court if Zverev can continue to make 70% plus of his first serves.

If he can do that, Alexander Zverev will certainly have a lot of faith in his own returning ability having won 43% of return points played on the clay courts this season when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those have come in eighteen matches, so far from a small sample, while the German has broken four times in both wins in this tournament.

There are plenty of positives for the 19 year old Van Assche to take, but he is still growing into his body and the serve is likely to be improved once he does so. He is only winning 58% of service points against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and Luca Van Assche has been broken in 29% of his service games played against those stronger players.

Alexander Zverev will feel his serving can be one that builds pressure on the scoreboard too and this is a match that the German can win and cover this handicap as long as he remains focused.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Arthur Fils: There have been criticisms of the kind of schedule that Casper Ruud is willing to play, but it was still a surprise to hear him speak about it in his press conference in Hamburg.

Some believe his World Ranking is not justified as he plays, and wins, a lot of the ATP 250 tournaments, but Ruud is more than a flat track bully. Any player that has reached two French Open Finals and a US Open Final deserves more respect, especially as Casper Ruud has been unfortunate to lose those three Grand Slam Finals to Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

He has not enjoyed his time too much in Hamburg this week and had criticisms of the court, while the indoor conditions might be something Ruud has to face again.

Two tough wins over Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin might have just hardened Casper Ruud and this should be a little more comfortable as a match up.

That is not being disrespectful to young Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is still learning at this level even if he won the title in Lyon before the French Open. A win over Francisco Cerundolo to take the title home is one that has to be given credit, but Arthur Fils is just 1-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and his serve has proven to be a vulnerable one in those matches.

He has played well this week to win his two matches, but Fils will know this is a significant increase in level of opponent and the suggestion is that his returning may not be up to the level that may be needed to stay with Casper Ruud.

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: These two met last week in Gstaad and the match ended prematurely when Roberto Carballes Baena had to withdraw midway through the second set.

He looks like he is better this week after winning his Second Round match while dropping four games, but Roberto Carballes Baena has had a slightly disappointing season on the clay courts, which are usually where he is considered a specialist.

Of course he is facing a former French Open Champion, but one who is not the same player he was at his best. Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find the consistency to get back towards the very top of the Tour and at 38 years old it is very difficult to imagine he will have enough of an Indian summer to at least have another strong Grand Slam run.

Improving his World Ranking would help, but that has been tough for Wawrinka who is just 27-22 over the last twelve months.

Two wins in Umag will have given Stan Wawrinka confidence and he could be tough to stop if he serves as well as he can- he is holding 83% of his service games played on the clay courts this season and Wawrinka has only dropped serve three times in his two wins here. He has broken nine times in those victories over Filip Misolic and Federico Coria and Stan Wawrinka should have success against this Carballes Baena serve.

I would not put too much stock into the match in Gstaad considering Roberto Carballes Baena had to pull out, but Stan Wawrinka should have the Break Points to win this match. That hasn't always mattered this month, but creating the chances should put Wawrinka in a position to win this match against the higher Ranked player who only won 58% of his service points against Taro Daniel in the Second Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.26 Units (32 Units Staked, - 19.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 26th)

The events being played this week have been affected by the rain and it has led to a number of matches in Umag and Lausanne that have to be played on Wednesday having originally been scheduled to be played on Tuesday.

Hamburg has also been a wet tournament, and there could be some more poor weather to come, although that is an event that has a court with a roof which is a bonus.

With the Second Round beginning and some First Round matches to be completed, Wednesday is going to be another busy day. The Tennis Picks for the day can be seen below and I am looking to push on from a winning day to try and put a strong week in the books.

Once again the main focus is on the event in Hamburg, but there are a few selections from the other events that are being played this week.

Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Strong clay court form post-Wimbledon has taken Sebastian Ofner into a career high World Ranking and his Seeding in the Umag draw meant direct entry into the Second Round.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in Bastad in the week after winning a title in Salzburg and so there has to be a confidence in his tennis right now. We did not always see that in his two tough wins last week, but this should be a favourable enough match up for Ofner on the red dirt of Umag.

Motivation may be the biggest question mark with a clay court tournament in Austria coming up next week, one that Sebastian Ofner will be targeting for a successful week. That may mean he is not ready to put in the fight he needs to really have a deep run in Umag, and Ofner is not going to be good enough to win matches without a full effort.

This potential lack of motivation is a concern for sure, but Sebastian Ofner has been given a decent draw against Alexei Popyrin who is not exactly known for his clay court pedigree. It is something of a surprise to see the Australian in Europe after Wimbledon rather than the hard courts of North America, and this is the first tournament Popyrin is playing after a disappointing grass court season as far as he is concerned.

After coming through Qualifiers, Alexei Popyrin did have solid runs at the clay court Masters events in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier this year so he cannot be written off. The serve can still be a big weapon for him, even on the slower clay courts, and that can build scoreboard pressure on opponents.

Alexei Popyrin does hold 85% of his service games that have been played on the red dirt, but that number drops a little bit when only considering matches against opponents who come in as higher Ranked players. He is 3-6 in those matches this season and Popyrin has really had issues on the return of serve, something that Sebastian Ofner has to look to exploit.

These two have split two previous meetings with Popyrin winning on the grass last year and Sebastian Ofner holding a hard court win from 2018. The clay courts should give the Austrian a bit more of an edge and he can do enough to win this match and cover this handicap mark.

Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Sebastian Baez: For a lot of players, a long week on the Tour can take something out of the legs and it can be hard to replicate the success of one tournament in the next one played.

However, Casper Ruud has shown he can handle the European summer after Wimbledon and is happy to head to three different clay court tournaments and expect himself to produce his best tennis in each of those.

Last week Ruud ended as Runner Up to Andrey Rublev in Bastad, but he has been given until Wednesday to begin his Hamburg efforts as he looks to win another title on the red dirt. In his career, nine of ten titles won have been in clay court events and Casper Ruud took the title home in Estoril earlier this year in an event where he beat Sebastian Baez on the way to the trophy.

That match up came in the Quarter Final, but Sebastian Baez has been struggling for form in recent weeks and an early loss in Bastad will not have helped the confidence of a player that has slipped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings. He was Number 30 back in April, which underlines the recent issues Sebastian Baez has had, although he is a solid clay courter who will need to be respected.

Unfortunately, Baez has struggled when facing the elite on the surface and has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the red dirt this season, including that straight sets loss to Casper Ruud in Estoril.

Half of the sixteen clay court matches won by Sebastian Baez this season came during the early Golden Swing in South America and his numbers have been a little weaker on serve and return since the clay court events in Europe have begun to be played.

Sebastian Baez can be dangerous on the clay courts and has taken a set from both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie on this surface this season, but Casper Ruud might be playing at a higher level than both of those players on the clay courts.

He might need a bit of time to get rolling, but Ruud should be able to create the majority of Break Points and in more return games than the other way around and he can win this match with a bit of comfort on the scoreboard.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: There haven't been too many 16 year old tennis players making the kind of impression Mirra Andreeva is doing on the Tour and the young player can make her way through to the Quarter Final in Luasanne.

This is a big spread for someone so young to cover, but Mirra Andreeva is making short work of opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts. This season she has a 20-1 record against such opponents on this surface, while Andreeva has an unbelievable 34-3 mark against players outside of the top 100 on the clay in her career.

From any player that would be impressive, but for a recently turned 16 year old, it just underlines the potential that so many believe Andreeva is destined to fulfil.

Sixteen of her twenty wins against players outside the top 50 on the clay would have seen Mirra Andreeva cover this handicap mark set and it is going to be very difficult for Anna Bondar to stay with her barring having a huge serving day.

Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was at her career best World Ranking mark of Number 50, but injury and loss of form has seen her fall out of the top 100.

Anna Bondar has beaten Karolina Pliskova on the clay this season, but she has a 2-5 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in 2023. She was well beaten last week by another young Russian player, Elina Avanesyan, and it feels like a match where Bondar is going to be under immense pressure in the majority of service games played.

The Mirra Andreeva serve is still a work in progress, which is not a surprise considering her age, but the World Number 64 looks after that shot effectively enough to believe she produces another strong win here in Switzerland before yet another jump in her career best World Ranking mark.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Ofner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Arnaldi - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 24th)

The last two tournaments have not been what I expect from the Tennis Picks, but those have brought plenty of frustration.

You can make adjustments when matches are blow outs going against the selections, but this has been a month where players have been in solid positions to win and then lost all form and played poor tennis at key times.

It is annoying, but it is also part of a long season on the Tour.

This week the tournaments move onto another few clay court stops in Europe, but there are a couple of hard court events being played as the run up towards the US Open officially begins in Atlanta. The big Masters events are due to go in August ahead of the tournament in New York City, but it has been confirmed that Novak Djokovic will not play the Canadian Masters as he looks to give himself more time to rest and recover.

The ATP Hamburg event is a pretty big one as an ATP 500 tournament, and the Tennis Picks are largely going to concentrate on that tournament this week. Monday tends to be a quieter day with Qualifiers being completed and some of the markets not produced for all of the matches that are set to be played, while I am looking for a stronger return all around after another poor week.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: A disappointing loss in Bastad will have hurt, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry can make up for that by earning a spot in the Second Round in Hamburg.

It has been a strong season on the clay courts with the notable result being his run to the Quarter Final at the French Open, and that was a run that helped Tomas Martin Etcheverry reach a career high World Ranking last month. With a couple more solid performances over the next four weeks, Etcheverry has to be thinking about being Seeded for the US Open, which may give him an opportunity to pick up some more World Rankings.

Things have not always been smooth for the Argentine and the defeat last week in Bastad means his post-Wimbledon performances on the clay courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive. Last year he was beaten in the First Round in all three clay court events played in the European summer, but the first serve has looked a more efficient weapon for Tomas Martin Etcheverry this year and this could be a key for him in this First Round match.

His opponent is someone that has to be respected- Laslo Djere is very capable at his best, but he is also never that far away from a really poor outing, which is perhaps why his numbers are average on the clay courts. Last week he was beaten in very poor fashion by Zizou Bergs in Gstaad, but overall Laslo Djere has played well against opponents outside of the top 20 on the clay courts and has a 12-6 record against them on this surface in 2023.

The numbers are much stronger in those matches and Djere is someone who can serve well on the clay, while the Serb's return game has to be respected too.

However, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been a little better all around on the surface over the last seven months and the feeling is that he will have enough quality to get the better of a tough opponent.

Both have similar service numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20, but Etcheverry has been slightly superior on the return and that could be shown up in this First Round contest that may be played under the Hamburg main court roof.

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 games v Erika Andreeva: It is always going to be tough to perform on the Tour when your younger sister is seen as the more talented up and comer and a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion in the making.

This did not stop Venus Williams from making a huge impact of her own on the Tour even when her father was speaking about the potential of Serena, and that is something that Erika Andreeva is going to have to show.

She has not really been able to find the strong results that Mirra has done, while Erika's World Ranking has slipped back outside of the top 150.

Things can quickly turn around, but it can also be very difficult to crack the top 100 once you slip out of those positions. Jil Teichmann is a great example of that having lost form in a twelve month period and the Swiss player is struggling to put the results together to end her slide.

A Quarter Final run last week will help, but that was in a WTA 125 tournament and this is a big week for the home player. The fans are going to be behind Teichmann, which will help the lefty, while a strong win over Erika Andreeva a few weeks ago will give the favourite more confidence to take into the match.

Erika Andreeva has flashed some of her potential, but her serve is still vulnerable and Jil Teichmann should be able to take advantage and frank the win she holds over her. While she is not playing at the level that took Teichmann into World Number 21 in July 2022, she does hold a 6-2 record against players not Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts and that includes that win over Andreeva.

For all of her potential, Erika Andreeva is just 4-6 in matches against players outside of the top 100 on the red dirt in 2023 and she has suffered some comfortable defeats in those matches.

MY PICKS: Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)