The opening five days at the Indian Wells tournament have been disappointing for the Tennis Picks, but it is still early and the opportunity remains to turn things around and get this event back on track.
Things could have been worse, but they certainly could be a lot better and there are a few more selections from Day 6 with the Third Round set to be completed.
A bit of fortune at key times would be nice, but this is just one of those moments on a long Tour when things are not quite going to plan and that is just something we have to navigate, while also remembering it has been a positive start to the 2026 season to back up the winning 2025 campaign.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Aleksandar Kovacevic: The crowd is likely going to give Aleksandar Kovacevic some decent support at Indian Wells, but Novak Djokovic is a legend and there will be plenty backing him to make the Fourth Round.
This is the first tournament taken in by Novak Djokovic since coming up short at the Australian Open Final and the win in the Second Round means he is already putting some World Ranking Points in the bank.
These days Novak Djokovic is unconcerned about his Ranking with the focus being on winning another Major, but staying in the top four would mean avoiding having to face the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz before the Semi Final at any Grand Slam coming up. He knows how tough it will be to beat both players, but facing them in the Semi Final and Final is better than having to use up too much energy early in a Slam and Novak Djokovic will be confident in his chances at the remaining three Majors.
Motivation for other tournaments is harder to find, but Novak Djokovic should have enough quality to get past the World Number 72 who has a 5-9 record on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.
When he finds a rhythm, the serve can be a big weapon for Kovacevic, but he has struggled on the return of serve and that has kept him under pressure.
Novak Djokovic can exert that pressure on this opponent and he remains a solid return player on the surface, even if the former World Number 1 is not at the level he once was.
He did drop a set in the Second Round, but this may end up being a more routine win for the Serb as he progresses into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Sonay Kartal: She has had a mixed time at Indian Wells, but Madison Keys reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and looked in decent form on her return to the Tour.
This is the first tournament that Madison Keys has played since the defence of her Australian Open crown ended in the Fourth Round in Melbourne.
There is room for improvement on the Second Round win over Diane Parry, but Madison Keys showed enough on the return of serve to be feeling pretty good about her latest run in Indian Wells. She did need to save eight Break Points to avoid being dragged into a real battle, but Keys did what was needed and is rightly favoured in this Third Round match on Monday.
Sonay Kartal has once again reached the Third Round in Indian Wells, but she would be dropping in the World Ranking if she is not able to at least match the performance of 2025 when she made it through to the Fourth Round.
Saving Match Points to beat Emma Navarro will have given the British player a lot of confidence and Sonay Kartal has reached a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts this season. The Middle East swung began well, but Kartal has just had issues with her consistency and she had lost four in a row against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface before beating Navarro in the Second Round.
Over the last twelve months, Madison Keys has won twelve of fourteen hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20.
She has also beaten Sonay Kartal on the grass courts of Wimbledon, although that was in a match played in 2023 and the World Number 54 is a much more experienced player now.
That should mean Kartal is able to have some successes, but she has struggled with the return of serve against the higher Ranked players faced this year and Madison Keys may do just enough to clear this handicap line.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indian Wells Update: 5-7, - 2.94 Units (12 Units Staked, - 24.50% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment