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Showing posts with label March 9th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March 9th. Show all posts

Monday, 9 March 2026

Indian Wells Tennis Day 6 Picks 2026 (Monday 9th March)

The opening five days at the Indian Wells tournament have been disappointing for the Tennis Picks, but it is still early and the opportunity remains to turn things around and get this event back on track.

Things could have been worse, but they certainly could be a lot better and there are a few more selections from Day 6 with the Third Round set to be completed.

A bit of fortune at key times would be nice, but this is just one of those moments on a long Tour when things are not quite going to plan and that is just something we have to navigate, while also remembering it has been a positive start to the 2026 season to back up the winning 2025 campaign.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Aleksandar Kovacevic: The crowd is likely going to give Aleksandar Kovacevic some decent support at Indian Wells, but Novak Djokovic is a legend and there will be plenty backing him to make the Fourth Round.

This is the first tournament taken in by Novak Djokovic since coming up short at the Australian Open Final and the win in the Second Round means he is already putting some World Ranking Points in the bank.

These days Novak Djokovic is unconcerned about his Ranking with the focus being on winning another Major, but staying in the top four would mean avoiding having to face the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz before the Semi Final at any Grand Slam coming up. He knows how tough it will be to beat both players, but facing them in the Semi Final and Final is better than having to use up too much energy early in a Slam and Novak Djokovic will be confident in his chances at the remaining three Majors.

Motivation for other tournaments is harder to find, but Novak Djokovic should have enough quality to get past the World Number 72 who has a 5-9 record on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.

When he finds a rhythm, the serve can be a big weapon for Kovacevic, but he has struggled on the return of serve and that has kept him under pressure.

Novak Djokovic can exert that pressure on this opponent and he remains a solid return player on the surface, even if the former World Number 1 is not at the level he once was.

He did drop a set in the Second Round, but this may end up being a more routine win for the Serb as he progresses into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Sonay Kartal: She has had a mixed time at Indian Wells, but Madison Keys reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and looked in decent form on her return to the Tour.

This is the first tournament that Madison Keys has played since the defence of her Australian Open crown ended in the Fourth Round in Melbourne.

There is room for improvement on the Second Round win over Diane Parry, but Madison Keys showed enough on the return of serve to be feeling pretty good about her latest run in Indian Wells. She did need to save eight Break Points to avoid being dragged into a real battle, but Keys did what was needed and is rightly favoured in this Third Round match on Monday.

Sonay Kartal has once again reached the Third Round in Indian Wells, but she would be dropping in the World Ranking if she is not able to at least match the performance of 2025 when she made it through to the Fourth Round.

Saving Match Points to beat Emma Navarro will have given the British player a lot of confidence and Sonay Kartal has reached a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts this season. The Middle East swung began well, but Kartal has just had issues with her consistency and she had lost four in a row against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface before beating Navarro in the Second Round.

Over the last twelve months, Madison Keys has won twelve of fourteen hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20.

She has also beaten Sonay Kartal on the grass courts of Wimbledon, although that was in a match played in 2023 and the World Number 54 is a much more experienced player now.

That should mean Kartal is able to have some successes, but she has struggled with the return of serve against the higher Ranked players faced this year and Madison Keys may do just enough to clear this handicap line.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 5-7, - 2.94 Units (12 Units Staked, - 24.50% Yield)

Sunday, 9 March 2025

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 9th March)

The plan was always going to be that the Indian Wells Tennis Picks would begin on Sunday with the Third Round matches scheduled.

A decent February to follow the Australian Open has just maintained some positive momentum in what is going to be a year filled with swings in momentum.

March sees the two Masters events in North America earn the focus of the Tennis Picks before the Tour officially moves onto the clay courts and the beginning of the run towards the French Open. Big events will be played in Europe leading into Paris, but the big Ranking points on offer in Indian Wells and Miami will motivate all involved in the events before the attention turns to building up towards the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season.


Matteo Berrettini v Stefanos Tsitsipas: A strong second set had given Matteo Berrettini all of the momentum when he was facing Stefanos Tsitsipas in Dubai at the end of February and it did feel that the match was on his racquet. One chance was handed out to the Greek player in the final set decider, and Matteo Berrettini was punished for that slight dip in concentration and suffered a defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas for the fifth time in six matches.

It also meant Matteo Berrettini has lost all four of their hard court matches, while Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to take advantage of a slightly fortunate win to go on and win the title in Dubai and move back into the top ten of the World Rankings.

They play one another in the Third Round at Indian Wells and both players are going to be feeling confident after some of the tennis they have produced in 2025. Both had dropped in the World Rankings as form had dipped following injury, but both Berrettini and Tsitsipas will be expecting stronger campaigns as long as they can stay healthy.

There hasn't been much wrong in the serving numbers produced by both players and that is expected to be the case on Sunday in this Third Round match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be given the slight edge in terms of the returning game, especially when it comes to the big points being played and that was the case when the pair met in Dubai. It has to be a slight concern for Matteo Berrettini, but the Italian will also believe he was a little unfortunate to end up on the losing side and it certainly feels strange to see the odds flipping for this match compared with how they were set in Dubai.

This time it is Tsitsipas set as the favourite and his confidence will be much improved with a title under his belt, but Matteo Berrettini felt the right play in Dubai and the same can be said in Indian Wells.

The fine margins landed in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Middle East, but Matteo Berrettini has to believe a similar standard of performance may be enough to see him earn the spot in the Fourth Round.


Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 games v Clara Tauson: Another rematch from Dubai takes place in the Third Round at Indian Wells, although the last time Mirra Andreeva and Clara Tauson met, there was a title on the line. Both youngsters played well to come through a tough WTA 1000 event in Dubai before Mirra Andreeva got the better of Clara Tauson in that Final and there is every reason to believe the 17 year old can frank that victory with another in California.

The layers are feeling the same and the handicap is a little wider in this Third Round match, although perhaps not wide enough to prevent Mirra Andreeva from covering.

Confidence should not be an issue for either player considering the kind of wins they earned in Dubai, although it was Mirra Andreeva who was a bit more convincing throughout that tournament. A solid win in the Second Round at Indian Wells has maintained the positive form and it has been a very good start to the season for Mirra Andreeva.

Clara Tauson has played well too and her win over Aryna Sabalenka in Dubai deserves a lot of respect.

The Dane serves well and that will always make her dangerous on the hard courts, although Clara Tauson will know that there is room for improvement on the return. That is especially the case when she has faced higher Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025 and it is the return of serve that looks to give Mirra Andreeva the edge in this contest.

When they met in Dubai, it was Clara Tauson who created more Break Points, but it was Mirra Andreeva who had more success winning points against the Tauson serve compared with the other way around.

After a competitive first set, Mirra Andreeva was able to roll through the second on that day and the feeling is that she can pull away from Clara Tauson in the game handicap market again. Clara Tauson will have learned plenty from that match, but she may yet struggle to have the same impact on the return of serve and that is where the younger player can produce another victory over a potential long-term rival.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 49-32, + 16.15 Units (119 Units Staked, + 13.57% Yield)

Saturday, 9 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 9th March)

The Indian Wells Masters continues on Saturday with the Second Round set to be completed and it is likely to be another busy day on the courts.

With improving weather, it looks a good day for tennis and the selections from the matches scheduled to be played can be read below.

The full Indian Wells numbers will be in the Sunday thread when moving into the Third Round at the tournament and that is largely down to the limited time I've had being used to put the research together ahead of this first Saturday at the event.


MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anhelina Kalinina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Thursday, 9 March 2023

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 9th)

I can't really complain about the start made from this tournament after the First Round got underway in Indian Wells on Wednesday.

Wins for two selections against the handicap, plus the upset from Jason Kubler, worked the Picks into a profitable start from the tournament, although I was disappointed to see Katie Swan fail to push her way into a third set in her eventual straight sets loss.

The British player led 5-3 and missed set points while serving before failing to capitalise at 5-4, 0-40 in the next game and eventually lost four games in a row to be dumped out of the event.

However, I have to be happy with the start even if the sweep of the selections was missed.

On Thursday there is a much busier schedule set as a large majority of the First Round matches are completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played on site. That does mean the biggest names of the sport, sans Novak Djokovic, are all going to get underway at the first Masters event of 2023 over the weekend and there are some big Ranking points up for grabs.

With one more hard court Masters event scheduled for the end of the month, we are fast approaching the clay court season in Europe as the build towards the French Open will begin in April. Hopefully we will see Rafael Nadal back and ready to defend his crown and Novak Djokovic will be set to play in all of the events in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season too.


For now the concentration of the majority of the Tour will be putting together two solid hard court tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and my focus is on the Tennis at those events as well.


Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Brandon Holt: I actually considered Thanasi Kokkinakis as potentially the better of the two Australian players when he broke through onto the Tour with Nick Kyrgios, but injuries have been a major factor in his career.

He has looked healthier to open 2023 and has a title win at Challenger level, while reaching the Semi Final of an ATP 250 tournament ahead of the Australian Open. The Number 94 World Ranking is a reflection of the lack of tennis played, not Kokkinakis' ability, and winning a couple of Qualifiers makes him dangerous.

I am not surprised he is favoured to beat Wild Card Brandon Holt who is still struggling nearer the 200 World Ranking mark rather than the top 100. The young American is still learning his trade on the Tour and he has had a couple of solid runs at the last two Grand Slam events, but Holt has not been able to back up the performance at the Australian Open and has been beaten relatively early at all of his recent events.

This is a big step up for Brandon Holt considering only two of his recent losses have been against players Ranked inside the top 100 and he is just 2-6 in those matches on the hard courts over the last year.

He is going to need to rely on serving very well if he is going to earn the upset in the First Round, because I am not sure how much joy Brandon Holt will have against the Thanasi Kokkinakis serve. That builds pressure on Holt and he has held 77% of his service games against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last year, a number that will be challenged by Kokkinakis who has broken in almost 30% of his return games on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing an opponent Ranked outside the top 100.

The Australian is 11-1 in those matches too and he would have covered this handicap mark in nine of the ten wins that did not end in a retirement. Brandon Holt will receive plenty of support from the crowd, but Thanasi Kokkinakis has the tennis to break down his opponent and he can move through to the Second Round with some solid Ranking points secured.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: The first thing I want to say here is that this is a big spread for Andy Murray to cover considering where his tennis has been since returning full time to the Tour. There have been flashes of the old Murray, and that player would have been confident of covering this mark, but the new Andy Murray is prone to chucking in a poor run of games and so has to fight much harder to win his matches.

However, the lower Ranking has meant he has run into much tougher opponents early in tournaments and so has not been able to build into events as he has liked. Reaching the Final in Doha last month is a boost and Andy Murray is climbing back towards the top 50 with his goal of being Seeded at Grand Slam events going forward certainly achievable.

He has also not had the best record at Indian Wells, even at his best, where the ball flies and defending on this hard court is that much tougher than in other events around the world.

In saying all that, I do think Andy Murray can get the better of Tomas Martin Etcheverry who has been playing clay court tennis over the last month in the Golden Swing in South America. He did reach the Final of the last of those in Santiago and was rewarded with his career best World Ranking earlier this week, although the hard courts are still unfamiliar terrain to the Argentine.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry does hold a winning record on the hard courts in his career, but he is just 5-6 on the surface over the last twelve months and three of those wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100. This is only the seventh ever match against a top 100 Ranked on the hard courts and I do think Andy Murray should be better prepared even if he had to withdraw from the big event in Dubai following his Doha exploits.

Andy Murray might only have a 14-12 record on the hard courts over the last year, but that becomes 9-2 when only looking at matches against players Ranked outside the top 50, which backs up the point about the early, tough draws he has been handed. In those eleven matches, Andy Murray has held 80% of his service games and broken in 27% of return games and these are numbers that suggest he holds a big edge over his younger opponent.

We have seen Etcheverry break in just shy of 16% of return games played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last year and that is something to note, even from a small sample of matches. It feels like Tomas Martin Etcheverry will have to serve very big to have a chance in this one, although I am a touch concerned that Andy Murray has not had a very good time of covering a line like this one, even in the nine wins against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the surface over the last year.

However, I think the move from clay to the hard courts in Indian Wells works against Tomas Martin Etcheverry and I will take any odds against quotes for Murray to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gregoire Barrere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Alexei Popyrin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 3-1, + 2.85 Units (7 Units Staked, + 40.71% Yield)

Wednesday, 9 March 2022

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 9th)

I took a few weeks off between the Australian Open and the start of the Indian Wells Masters as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned and that was largely down to not having the time I would have wanted to devote to researching the Picks being made.

A poor week in February wasn't great, but a few days away in Madrid following that meant my lean was towards waiting for the first Masters event of the 2022 season.

Back to back events in North America are going to be played before we move onto the clay court portion of the season leading into the French Open. Rule changes in Europe is good news for Novak Djokovic, who is expected to miss out in Indian Wells and Miami due to his vaccination status, but the current World Number 2 is going to be unlikely to take part over the next three weeks even if that has yet to be confirmed.


Issues in Eastern Europe are clearly the focus for all and not just those of us who live in a European country. The decision has been made by a number of sporting bodies that Russian and, to a lesser extent, Belarusian athletes/sports teams will be prevented from attending certain events.

Tennis has yet to follow suit with some of the leading players on both the ATP and WTA Tours representing those nations and I think that is the correct decision- this is a deep political question, but I am not sure players on the Tour should be blamed and ultimately punished for actions of their governments, even if I do understand that it may not be the best look if those players are winning the big tournaments.

Tennis players are almost in contractor roles and I am not sure it would sit right if some are forced from the Tour when they are not as fault. That would mean being unable to provide for their family and it seems like it would be much harsher than the decision to prevent a national team playing in an event together.

It is not an easy distinction and I think it is an extremely sad state of affairs that we are having to deal with things like this in the 21st Century. Hopefully all in Ukraine and Russia who are suffering at the moment will be in a much more peaceful position sooner rather than later.


And I do think it would have been very hard for the ATP Tour to ban the current World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev for actions that have nothing to do with him personally and especially when they have allowed Alexander Zverev 'a pass' for his actions in Mexico.

Attacking the umpire's chair was a terrible look for Zverev himself and I think he would have had to accept any ban from the Tour, but a suspended ban looks terrible on the Tour that seemingly is afraid to deal with the biggest names.

Then again, I am not entirely surprised that the ATP Tour has not put something in place to deal with these types of misconduct when other, more serious issues like domestic violence are largely ignored or not acted upon.


The Australian Open was a solid tournament for the Tennis Picks, but one poor week in February has hurt the overall numbers.

I am looking for Indian Wells/Miami to just turn things around before the move onto the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open.


Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 games v Caroline Garcia: It has been a hard watch for those not associated with Ukraine to see the country suffering from an invasion from a neighbour, but I can't really appreciate what it would be like for someone who calls the nation 'home'. Many of the Ukrainian players on the WTA Tour made their feelings and hopes for those at home clear last week and Dayana Yastremska donated her winnings to funds to help those less fortunate.

As a tennis player, life is largely lived out of a suitcase and this week Dayana Yastremska will be heading to the West Coast of the United States to take part in the Indian Wells tournament. She reached the Final in Lyon last week before narrowly being beaten in a tight, competitive match and it is a run that should provide a boost in confidence.

It is harder to gauge how Dayana Yastremska may be feeling with the war continuing at home, but her tennis since the Australian Open has been much improved. The return part of her game has stayed pretty steady, but Dayana Yastremska has been getting a little more out of both the first and second serve, although conditions in this part of California can be tough to deal with.

The First Round opponent is Caroline Garcia, who also reached the Semi Final in Lyon last week and was beaten by the same opponent as Dayana Yastremska. The Frenchwoman was less competitive against Shuai Zhang than Yastremska in the Final, but Caroline Garcia needed a tournament where she put a couple of wins together after what has been a disappointing start to the 2022 season.

Caroline Garcia had not won back to back matches this season before the tournament in Lyon and she needs to find a way to get a lot more out of her return game if she is going to move her World Ranking back in a positive direction. The serve can still offer a platform from which Garcia can have success, but winning just 37% of return points is not going to cut it on the WTA Tour.

Conditions here can be difficult to get used to and the ball can fly at times if players are not feeling their game like they would- that does make it a little more difficult for both Caroline Garcia and Dayana Yastremska who will both want to get their serve cranked up to offer a best route through.

The superior returning in 2022 of the Ukrainian should give her the edge and I imagine the crowd are going to be firmly behind Yastremska here.

She has also won both previous meetings with Caroline Garcia and I think the younger player can back up her big week in Lyon by progressing through to the Second Round at the biggest event being played since the Australian Open.

MY PICKS: Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2022: - 11.62 Units (194 Units Staked, - 5.99% Yield)

Tuesday, 9 March 2021

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 9th)

It wasn't the best end to the week, but it could have been a lot worse if not for a stronger second half compared with the first half for the Tennis Picks.

The tournament being held in Dubai this week for some of the very best names on the WTA Tour did begin on Sunday (as they push for the Saturday finish), but the majority of the events being played this week get their main draws underway on Monday.

Roger Federer will grab the headlines as he returns for the first time over twelve months and I do like what we have seen on the practice courts, although match play will take some time to be restored to the level he would like. He is playing in Doha and then Dubai next week, but Federer will skip the first Masters event of the season in Miami and then begin his build for a return to the French Open, which was unexpected.

I am not that surprised he will avoid travelling to the States, but I thought Federer's clay court career was over when he missed the French Open in recent seasons. The main threat he poses remains on the grass and the hard courts, but I think the competitive tennis is important to him so he can be best prepared for what is likely to be a Wimbledon Championships beginning in June.

There are other top names playing in Doha, Marseille and Chile on the ATP Tour this week and the big WTA event in Dubai has brought together plenty of the best players on that side of the Tour so it should be another good week for Tennis fans.


For the Tennis Picks I have to look for a stronger opening and then try and push forward with the first winning week of the season. It has been a struggle at times, but I do think the identification is still working well enough and it is more about having a bit of luck that is often needed whenever you make a Pick.

It looks like being a potentially very busy week with the amount of tournaments and matches to come, but a strong start is imperative to lay a foundation for the week ahead.

I didn't really find any angles on Monday that were appealing to get the Tennis Picks going this week, but Tuesday looks to have provided a few more options.

The WTA Dubai tournament looks like it is going to be played at a rapid pace and that means there are a lot more matches due out on the court early in the week than we will see in Marseille, Doha or Santiago, but a lot of matches doesn't mean there will be a lot of selections.

I will add any selections from the ATP Santiago tournament and the matches scheduled for Tuesday when the full markets are out, but for now you can see my Picks from the Tuesday action below.


MY PICKS: Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Saturday, 9 March 2019

Indian Wells Masters Day 4 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 9th)

Up and down.

That is pretty much the way the first three days at the Indian Wells tournament have gone for the Tennis Picks as the conditions have been tough to deal with for the players.

It does mean a slight losing position for the week, but I've had much poorer starts in Indian Wells through the years and so I know it could have been a lot worse.


On Saturday we have the completion of the WTA Premier Event Second Round matches and the start of the ATP Masters Second Round. That means there are some top names taking to the courts during the day and the tournament will really feel like it is picking up the pace.

I don't have as many selections as on Friday, but you can read the Tennis Picks below.


Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: The hard courts might not be the favoured surface of either of these players who meet in the Second Round, but the match in front of them gives them a good chance to put some solid World Ranking points on the board.

Both Laslo Djere and Guido Andreozzi have been playing on the South American Golden Swing over the last month which won't surprise anyone who knows a thing about these two players. The move from the clay onto the hard courts is not the most testing and I do think both Djere and Andreozzi won't mind the speed of the court as one of the slower hard courts out there which will suit clay courters like these two.

Guido Andreozzi has already upset the odds by coming through his First Round match against Ilya Ivashka, but he will have to do the same if he is going to win this match.

The numbers on the hard courts are not that impressive from a player that doesn't play on this surface all that much, but Laslo Djere's are not jumping off the page either. The latter is perhaps someone who can hold onto serve with a little more consistency than Andreozzi, but the Argentinian has found his return to be a little more effective on the surface.

However confidence could be a factor and Djere should be full of it having had such a strong run on the clay courts in the last month. He won his first title ont the Tour and he is someone who has played at a higher level than Andreozzi for the most part and the confidence could be the difference maker on the day when the two players are matched up as closely as these two seem to be.

I do think a strong serving day from Djere could be the key reason he is able to come through this match and I will back him to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 8-8, - 1.54 Units (32 Units Staked, - 4.81% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (March 9-10)

The euphoria of Wednesday night has yet to really dissipate for most Manchester United fans and there is another big weekend ahead of the club as they continue the fight to finish in the top four of the Premier League table.

Manchester United visit Arsenal in the final League game of the weekend as the title race, top four race and the relegation battle heat up now we are down to single digits in terms of Premier League games left to play for each club.


We are also set for another round of Fantasy Football and this is the time of the season when you have to begin thinking about the best play to deploy the 'Chips' each team receives at the start of the game. Some will have used their Chips already, but I have yet to play any of mine and also am holding onto my second Wild Card as I prepare for Double GameWeeks and Blank GameWeeks.

There is a big Blank GameWeek coming up next Saturday when only five Premier League games are scheduled and most people should have been preparing what they are going to do for that. My choice is likely going to be the Free Hit as I am short of options in my team without taking multiple hits, but I have a team ready to attack the second Blank GameWeek coming up in early April.

Next season it is going to be a little irritating with the 'Winter Break' in February which means half of the teams will play on one GameWeek and the other half on another, but I think the Official Fantasy Game will have to make preparations for that perhaps by offering two Free Hit Chips next season and making it four Chips per team rather than three.

That will likely be decided in the off-season but for now let us concentrate on the weekend selections from the Premier League fixtures as well as the Fantasy Advice for the coming GameWeek.

Last weekend saw me identify a number of 'cheap' options that returned solid numbers, but some of my more expensive choices really did let me down. Hopefully that won't be the case this week as we get into GameWeek 30.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: There were a number of derby games in the Premier League last weekend, but don't tell either Crystal Palace or Brighton fans that their rivalry doesn't count.

While they may be separated by a lot more miles than a normal derby, there is an intense dislike of each other and that has led to on field issues as well as off field.

Both Crystal Palace and Brighton are still involved in the FA Cup Quarter Finals and those ties are next on deck, but the three points on offer in this one is vital as the two clubs look to move away from the bottom three. Games involving these two teams have been exciting in the last eighteen months and I do think there will be some fun, attacking football to enjoy in this one too.

The two defences have not played as well as they would have liked and that should mean there are opportunities for some talented attacking player to take advantage of. It is especially the case for a Crystal Palace team who are about as healthy as they have been all season and who are facing a Brighton team who have lost 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games and who have conceded two or more goals in 5 straight on their travels.

Last season Crystal Palace scored three times against Brighton here and I think they can win a high scoring game again. I do think Brighton have played well enough even during their poor run in the League to cause problems, but Crystal Palace have really looked like they have turned a corner and have attacking players enjoying their football.

That can be key for the home team to put a really good performance together at Selhurst Park and I think they reward the fans for their patience by winning this derby game in a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Wilfried Zaha- looks to be back in fine form and surrounded by talented attackers who have been thriving for Crystal Palace.

Alternative: Michy Batshuayi- seems contented leading the line for Crystal Palace and has been in fine scoring touch.


Cardiff City v West Ham United Pick: Things have simply not been going right for Cardiff City and it feels like a long road to escape the drop when your team is being beaten heavily at home by the likes of Watford and Everton.

While still only 2 points behind Southampton in the safety zone, Cardiff City fans have to be fearing the worst after those back to back home losses.

They will arrive at the Stadium on Saturday with some nerves as they face a West Ham United team who have been poor on their travels but who are looking healthier at the moment and scoring plenty of goals. The Hammers have a miserable recent away record, but neither Watford or Everton were pulling up trees before hammering Cardiff City and it has to be a concern for Neil Warnock.

Mistakes and some poor defending is not a good formula to avoid relegation and especially not for a Cardiff City who have been struggling for goals. Sol Bamba's injury weakens the defence that much more and I do think West Ham United can take advantage of that here.

However I do think Cardiff City will be able to create chances against a West Ham United team who have not kept an away clean sheet in their last 7 attempts. I expect the home team to load the box and use set pieces and long throws to try and cause havoc for West Ham United, but the visitors should also have their opportunities to break out and create chances of their own.

Both teams scoring won't be a surprise and I think this is a fixture that will produce three or more goals on the day. The home team can't really afford to sit back and hope to nick a point which should encourage spaces to develop and I do think West Ham United are a team capable of scoring and conceding a fair few too.

At close to odds against I think the call will be backing at least three goals to be shared out as they were when these teams met at the London Stadium earlier this season.

Fantasy Star: Manuel Lanzini- the creative force is back for West Ham United and is facing a Cardiff City defence missing their best player in Sol Bamba.

Alternative: Victor Camarasa- has not pleased Neil Warnock by sitting out some games with a very slight knock but is back and has to be the spark for Cardiff City if they are going to earn a result.


Huddersfield Town v Bournemouth Pick: This has to be the most difficult of the Premier League games to work out this weekend with both Huddersfield Town and Bournemouth hard to trust in the situation.

Huddersfield Town have long looked like a Championship team that is being forced to play Premier League fixtures and you can't ignore the huge amount of losses they have had. The win over Wolves last time out at home will inspire the fans to get behind them, but injuries are hurting the options for Jan Siewert.

On the other hand Bournemouth have lost 10 straight away games in all competitions and have conceded two or more goals in 9 in a row in the Premier League on their travels. They have mainly faced the top clubs in that run which has to be factored in, but Cardiff City beat Bournemouth 2-0 last month and a lack of goals and an inability to keep a clean sheet is a big problem.

I did consider backing both teams to score, but it is Bournemouth's issues in front of goal away from the Vitality Stadium which concerns me. At least Huddersfield Town have scored in 7 of their last 10 home games and that makes me think they may do enough to avoid a defeat here.

Last season Huddersfield Town crushed Bournemouth 4-1 here and so the players may feel this is a good chance to at least pressure Fulham for 19th place and avoiding finishing bottom of the table. That is the last real goal for The Terriers and I think they can at least earn a result here and so will recommend backing them with a start on the Asian Handicap.

Neither team is easy to trust and the first goal could be massive on the day, but a start with the home team looks the way to best approach this one.

Fantasy Star: Steve Mounie- Huddersfield Town are short of goals so will need their main forward to help them upset the odds.

Alternative: David Brooks- most teams have enjoyed playing Huddersfield Town and Brooks could be the key player if Bournemouth are going to be the latest.


Leicester City v Fulham Pick: Brendan Rodgers will lead Leicester City out at the King Power Stadium for the first time on Saturday and his team are big favourites to beat struggling Fulham.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of this fixture despite the visitors also hoping for a new manager bounce effect after removing Claudio Ranieri and giving the interim job to Scott Parker.

Fulham played very well in their 1-2 home loss to Chelsea, but this is a team who are conceding too many goals and you are not going to win too many matches like that. They will likely give it a go with a slim chance still in front of them to get out of the bottom three, but Leicester City should have the fans behind them with a new manager at the helm themselves.

Brendan Rodgers will need some time to get his philosophy and tactics instilled into the players, but Leicester City played well in the first game under his guidance and I think they could have a strong end to the season. Jamie Vardy overcoming a knock is a big boost for Leicester City and I think they will have the goals in the side to earn the victory in this one.

I won't be surprised if Fulham play their part in this one with an attacking intent as they search for the points that can give them a chance of avoiding the drop, but it may play into the hands of the home team and I think Leicester City win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- scored last week and is going to be passed fit to start this week.

Alternative: Harvey Barnes- an attacking threat for Leicester City who has had some very good chances to get on the scoreboard already this season. He should have some more against this Fulham defence.


Newcastle United v Everton Pick: This is another very difficult game to predict in the Premier League this weekend with two teams who will feel they have enough to earn the three points coming into the fixture.

Newcastle United have been in fine form at St James' Park where they have managed to win 4 Premier League games in a row while scoring two or more goals in each of those wins. That has built the confidence of the players when it comes to performing in front of their passionate home fans which has proven to be a real challenge for them in recent years as the standards of The Toon Army have not been met.

Everton played well enough to earn a goalless draw with Liverpool last Sunday, and this is a team that has won 2 of their last 3 away games in the League while keeping clean sheets in both of those victories. Marco Silva has a decent squad to call upon and Everton look to have plenty of options for this game.

They have a very good record in this part of the North East with 4 wins from their last 5 visits to St James' Park and that should give Everton the belief to win here.

I do think think the home team are looking much better over the last month too and they have the attacking players to cause problems. However the feeling is that their results have perhaps been better than they should have and Everton may just edge them out having produced a number of clean sheets recently and looking like they have enough in the final third to score here.

Backing Everton on the Asian Handicap is the recommendation from a tough fixture to read.

Fantasy Star: Lucas Digne- the left back was in very good form last week in the Merseyside derby and a threat from set pieces to produce assists or a goal.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- the striker has been the key for Newcastle United's move up the League table and will be important to break down an improved Everton defence.


Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A big game that has an affect on the Premier League table at the top and bottom takes place this Saturday at St Mary's and it is Tottenham Hotspur who come into this fixture as the favourite.

That is the right decision from the layers, but you do have to be concerned by the run of losses they had on their travels before the win in Dortmund during the week. Even in that game Tottenham Hotspur had to ride their luck through the first half and were fortunate that Hugo Lloris had a big game for them, but Harry Kane is firing in front of goal and Spurs will be looking to bounce back from recent poor results in the League.

Southampton will certainly feel they can cause problems for Tottenham Hotspur with the standards they have set in recent games. A narrow defeat at Old Trafford last weekend showed they can compete with the best teams in the Premier League, but Southampton are still in the pressurised situation of a relegation battle which does produce tensions.

They don't have the best recent record against Tottenham Hotspur which is an issue the players will have to deal with but I do think Southampton can play their part in an entertaining game.

However I do think the win in Dortmund during the week will be a huge boost for Tottenham Hotspur who can go into this one knowing they have a three week gap between games coming up. It should mean they can leave it all on the line before getting the chance to refresh for a big month coming up and Tottenham Hotspur have won on 4 of their last 6 visits to Southampton.

At just under odds against I think they can be backed to win here on Saturday afternoon. It won't be easy for Tottenham Hotspur with Mauricio Pochettino likely to be absent from the sidelines, but I do think they can build on their Champions League progression and earn a narrow win here.

Fantasy Star: Harry Kane- has scored in three of four games since returning from injury and always the key for Tottenham Hotspur.

Alternative: James Ward-Prowse- a great goal at Old Trafford last week and has been in good form from set pieces. An important avenue for goals for Southampton in this fixture.


Manchester City v Watford Pick: The team that handles the pressure best is going to be the one that wins the Premier League and Manchester City's experiences from last season has to stand them in good stead in the next two months as the campaign draws to a close.

Without a doubt the biggest worry has to be the amount of games they have to play as they continue chasing an unprecedented Quadruple and the injuries are beginning to stretch the squad. There is still enough quality for Manchester City to call upon and they certainly will feel they have the players to make sure they can see off a Watford team who were beaten 5-0 at Liverpool in their last away game.

Watford haven't played at Anfield for a while, but they been able to give Manchester City one or two things to think about. They have been beaten in 9 of their last 10 visits to Manchester City, but in recent years they have rarely been blown away and Watford are in fine form heading into this fixture if you take the Liverpool result as just being a bad day in the office.

However Javi Gracia has to make sure his players remain focused and not be instead thinking past this game at the FA Cup Quarter Final which is coming up next week. That could be easy to do if Watford fall behind though knowing what happened when they went to Anfield and I do wonder if Gracia will at least change the system to make his team harder to beat than they were at Liverpool.

Defending in numbers has at least slowed down the Manchester City goal output in the last couple of games, although I think it is as much to do with a slight lack of composure in the final third and goalkeepers having strong days as anything else. In this fixture I do think an early goal could potentially open the floodgates for a relatively comfortable home win and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap here.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- should start and will be well aware of the damage Liverpool did to Watford down the channels.

Alternative: Leroy Sane- thinking is same as for Sterling although Leroy Sane perhaps a little out of favour at the moment. Injury to Kevin De Bruyne does open up a space in the line up.


Liverpool v Burnley Pick: The early Sunday kick off can be a tough time for footballers to play as we have seen in the past and Liverpool players could be dealing with the pressure of knowing Manchester City have extended their lead at the top of the Premier League table the previous evening.

I do think that result is going to have a big bearing on the way this one goes and it is something to keep in mind when you read this prediction.

My feeling is that Manchester City will have beaten Watford on Saturday and opened up a 4 point lead at the top of the Premier League and that is going to make this fixture a little more difficult for Liverpool. You know what you are going to get from Burnley as they look to sit in and compact the spaces around the final third and try and frustrate their hosts, while they are also a team who pose a genuine threat through set pieces on the other side of the pitch.

Liverpool have had some recent difficulties against Burnley too- last season they saw their 9 game winning run against them at Anfield come to an end, while they needed an injury time winner to beat them at Turf Moor in the 2017/18 season. Earlier this season they came from behind to beat Burnley away from home and again needed a 90th minute goal to put the seal on the three points.

It goes a little further too. In the 2016/17 season Liverpool lost at Turf Moor and needed to come from behind to beat Burnley 2-1 at Anfield so there is a clear reason to suspect Burnley can make life difficult for the home team here, especially with the pressure of Manchester City opening a lead as I suspect.

The game will have a totally different feel if Manchester City have dropped points though and that is where the prediction could look totally out of shape.

However I have to go with what I think will happen and I do think Burnley can be backed with the start on the Asian Handicap despite Liverpool winning by wide margins in each of their last couple of League games here. Bournemouth and Watford both allowed Liverpool the space that Burnley won't and I do think the visitors have a chance of scoring here which will make it very difficult for Liverpool to cover the number on a day where they will simply want to put the three points on the board.

There is no doubt Liverpool can put teams to the sword when at their best, but that has not always been the case in the last six weeks and Burnley can cause one or two problems of their own. Only Manchester City have beaten Burnley by more than a two goal margin this season and they have caused issues for the other top six sides they have travelled to in the last three months.

Burnley have conceded a lot of goals of late, but the underlying statistics suggest they have been hard done by and better composure in front of goal might have changed the narrative of their form. They have routinely given Liverpool one or two problems to solve and I will back the visitors with the start.

Fantasy Star: Sadio Mane- scored plenty of his goals at Anfield in recent weeks while Mohamed Salah has been out of touch.

Alternative: Trent Alexander-Arnold- should be a threat going forward and chances for an assist and a clean sheet.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: The second of the live Premier League offerings on Sunday afternoon will give Chelsea the chance to move into the top four ahead of Arsenal hosting Manchester United later in the day. A win will move Chelsea above both of those clubs, but they won't be overlooking a Wolves team that have been able to produce the required quality to test the top clubs in the Premier League all season.

Nuno Espirito Santo's system is completely understood by the Wolves players and they will want to show the manager that they are ready for the FA Cup Quarter Final which is played next weekend. It could be easy for the players to perhaps already have turned their attention to that big Cup tie, but the manager is not going to tolerate standards slipping.

So far Wolves have shown they can challenge the top clubs having earned draws with Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal and beaten both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. The style of play makes them dangerous as they can quickly get out and counter attack those teams, while they can press high and force mistakes under pressure too.

They will be looking to do that against a Chelsea team that were in action on Thursday night, but you can't ignore how well the home team have been playing at Stamford Bridge. The win over Dynamo Kiev makes it 8 wins from 9 at home in all competitions and Chelsea have scored two or more goals in each of those victories, while Eden Hazard and Gonzalo Higuain were kept fresh.

Wolves have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 12 away games in all competitions and I do think Chelsea will create chances, but I am not ruling out Wolves playing their part here. They have scored at Old Trafford, the Emirates Stadium and Wembley Stadium and avoided defeat in each of those games, and I think there will be goals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

A narrow home win looks the most likely outcome, but I will simply look for three or more goals to be shared out by the two teams with the most likely result to scupper that being a 1-1 draw.

Fantasy Star: Gonzalo Higuain- scored one last week and could have had more as his fitness is improving in each passing week.

Alternative: Raul Jimenez- has been in fine goal-scoring form and the main threat for Wolves in this one.


Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: It has been a long time since Manchester United fans would have been able to experience a night like they did in Paris on Wednesday and even the fortune that was on their side on the evening will not have dampened spirits.

The win said as much about Manchester United as it did about Paris Saint-Germain who essentially gift wrapped the Champions League Quarter Final berth for their visitors.

Kindness aside, Manchester United fans and players have to be feeling very positive about their chances the rest of the season and even the Champions League has an open feel to it with the likes of Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain out of the competition. It could be a huge couple of months for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, although not one that should make any affect on his chances of becoming permanent manager which looks to be an open secret now.

In general the manager seems to have got his tactics spot on away from home where Manchester United won for the ninth time in a row on Wednesday and another on Sunday may knock out one of the rivals for a top four finish.

Arsenal are under pressure with games beginning to run down and their own trip to France during the week did not go anything near as well as United's did. A terrible couple of decisions from Sokratis saw a tie they were dominating turned on its head and Arsenal were beaten 3-1 at Rennes in the Europa League Last 16 First Leg which means they can't really afford to lose touch with the top four in the Premier League if they want to return to the Champions League.

That tie is still alive, but the confidence of the players will be adversely affected if they were to lose to Manchester United for the second time in seven weeks especially as Arsenal have been pretty decent at home. I would expect Unai Emery to have learnt a lot from the FA Cup tie at the end of January, but ultimately Arsenal are short of quality in defensive areas and Manchester United can exploit those positions like they did in the Cup.

I fully expect Arsenal to play their part as they have been strong in front of goal at the Emirates Stadium and this has all the makings of another high-scoring game between the teams. Four goals have been shared out in both meetings in 2018/19, while three or more goals have been shared out in 8 of their last 11 in all competitions.

Backing at least three to be scored on Sunday looks the best way to approach this game. I did consider recommending Manchester United as the underdog considering their run of wins on their travels, but the underlying statistics worry me a little bit and I will just hope they are on the right side of this one.

Fantasy Star: Romelu Lukaku- six goals in three games including two in Paris Saint-Germain should mean the Belgian continues to lead the line for Manchester United.

Alternative: Alexandre Lacazette- can score in six consecutive League games at the Emirates Stadium and should be the fresh threat for Arsenal in the final third.



Fantasy Football
This is the part of the thread where I identify some potential players that could produce some decent returns for the Official Fantasy Football game run by the Premier League.


Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Ederson (Manchester City- 5.6 Million): A home game with Watford gives Ederson the chance to add to his clean sheets for the season.

Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City- 5 Million): Facing goal-shy Fulham at home should provide a clean sheet opportunity for Kasper Schmeichel and Leicester City.


Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below
Lukasz Fabianski (West Ham United- 4.7 Million): Cardiff City have been struggling for goals, but Fabianski has also showed he can be the vital final line for West Ham United with some big saves when necessary.

Jonas Lossl (Huddersfield Town- 4.4 Million): A rare chance for a Huddersfield Town clean sheet if Bournemouth continue to struggle away from home.


Defender 5.1 Million and Above
Nicolas Otamendi (Manchester City- 6 Million): Suspended in the Champions League during the week so almost guaranteed to start this game. Always a threat from set pieces to score a goal.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool- 5.5 Million): An assist maker and being in the Liverpool defence gives the right back every chance of earning clean sheets.

Ricardo Pereira (Leicester City- 5.4 Million): A player who will be given licence to get forward under Brendan Rodgers.


Defender 5 Million and Below
Joel Matip (Liverpool- 4.9 Million): A cheap option into the Liverpool defence although Joel Matip could soon be pushed by Dejan Lovren and Joe Gomez for the place next to Virgil Van Dijk.

Issa Diop (West Ham United- 4.3 Million): There is a real chance for West Ham United to get a clean sheet this weekend and Issa Diop has been a strong defender for them all season.


Midfielder 6.7 Million and Above
Sadio Mane (Liverpool- 9.8 Million): Has scored five goals in his last four games at Anfield and has stepped up while Mohamed Salah has just hit a poor patch of form.

Bernardo Silva (Manchester City- 7.5 Million): The absence of De Bruyne means Bernardo Silva should be back in a position to run the show for Manchester City where he has thrived for much of the season.

James Maddison (Leicester City- 6.7 Million): Been in good form for Leicester City and can help create chances and potentially score goals against a porous Fulham defence.


Midfielder 6.6 Million and Below
Manuel Lanzini (West Ham United- 6.4 Million): The Argentinian is back playing ninety minutes and he is a key creative influence for West Ham United.

Pedro (Chelsea- 6.3 Million): Scored another goal for Chelsea on Thursday and has been in good form at Stamford Bridge.

Harvey Barnes (Leicester City- 5.5 Million): Has been in fantastic goal-scoring positions but just needs to show a touch more composure when he gets into those positions.


Forward 6.1 Million and Above
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City- 11.8 Million): A strong record against Watford, as Aguero has against everyone, and I do think he leads the line before Gabriel Jesus takes over the striking duties to give Aguero a rest.

Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace- 6.9 Million): Been in great form for Crystal Palace and Wilfried Zaha is facing an underperforming Brighton defence.


Forward 6 Million and Below
Charlie Austin (Southampton- 5.5 Million): Has to lead the line for Southampton and can cause problems for Tottenham Hotspur who had been conceding plenty of away goals before beating Dortmund during the week.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Fred
Cardiff City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Huddersfield Town + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Everton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Tottenham Hotspur @ 1.86 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Burnley + 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Chelsea-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Bet365

Friday, 9 March 2018

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 9th)

It has been a mixed first couple of days for the Tennis Picks and would have been a lot better if I had seen a couple of players take the chances that had come their way.

The conditions in Indian Wells have to be factored into any Picks being made and I am looking to get this week back on track on Friday when the WTA Premier Event moves into the Second Round and the ATP Masters tournament concludes the First Round matches.


Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: There is a lot of potential in Yoshihito Nishioka, but injuries have curtailed some of the progress he was making on the Tour.

His return in 2018 has been mixed with some positive results at the Challenger level, but I still think there are some fitness concerns surrounding Nishioka. It also should be noted that his best results have come against players Ranked outside the top 200 and someone like Marcos Baghdatis is far superior to that level.

No one can ignore the fact that Baghdatis is not the same player he once was, while the Cypriot will sympathise with Nishioka having had a number of injury setbacks throughout his career.

However Baghdatis has played some decent tennis in 2018 and winning a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to get into the main draw should give him a little more confidence. Baghdatis has been serving well and that has seen his return game improve too and I think he can get after Nishioka's serve in this First Round match.

I do have to respect how well Nishioka has been able to return throughout his career and that element of his game still looks to be in decent shape. The numbers show some difficulty for Nishioka when he has played the higher Ranked players on the Tour though and I think Baghdatis will work his way to a win and a cover in this one.


Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The main reason that Joao Sousa has not had more wins in 2018 is simply down to underperforming when it has come down to the big points. He isn't far away, but confidence could be an issue at the moment as Sousa searches for wins.

He has lost four matches in a row, but Sousa could have easily won all four of those matches if he had taken the chances that had come his way.

Sousa has maintained some decent numbers, but he will be looking to be more effective when the break point opportunities come his way. He will have to do that against Mikhail Youzhny who is not the player he once was, but who can still produce some very good tennis when he is feeling at his best.

I do wonder how Youzhny is feeling considering he withdrew from the Challenger event held in Indian Wells last week, while the return numbers have not been as strong as the Russian would have liked in 2018. Youzhny will cause some problems for Sousa if there is a lack of confidence in the way the latter plays the big points, but the numbers are pointing to the favourite to be too good in this one.

Sousa deservedly beat Youzhny on the clay courts last year, and the conditions should not be too much of a concern for him here. I will look for Sousa to outwork Youzhny in this First Round match and have enough to win and cover the games.


Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v Felix Auger Aliassime: Two Qualifiers and compatriots Vasek Pospisil and Felix Auger Aliassime meet in the First Round of the main draw at Indian Wells and it is the older player who is the favourite.

Both players did well to win a couple of Qualifiers and make their way through to the main draw, and I don't believe Auger Aliassime will be overawed playing Pospisil. He should be familiar with the game that he faces, although the ten year gap in age does mean Pospisil could have been one of the players Auger Aliassime looked up to as he was growing up.

That can play a part in the mental approach to a match, but the bigger issue for Auger Aliassime is he is coming up against an opponent who has been flying in 2018. The majority of the successes Pospisil has had have come on the Challenger circuit as he looks to rebuild after a couple of tough years, but an 18-3 record will also have given the veteran Canadian a lot of belief in his game.

Pospisil has won a couple of titles at the Challenger level and he has also reached the Semi Final in the Indian Wells Challenger last week. His serve has been a key for Pospisil, while his return game has been in good shape with the only criticism being that he is not as effective at converting break points as he would have liked.

I expect he is going to have the majority of the play in this one and Pospisil should be able to keep Auger Aliassime under some pressure. The return of Auger Aliassime should see him have some success, but his own serve has been a little erratic at the moment and I would expect Pospisil to have too much for him in this First Round match.

Both players could be better at converting the break points they have generated and it may come down to which of them is able to do that more effectively. However I think the Pospisil serve can get him out of a few more jams and I will back the veteran Canadian to get past his young compatriot and cover the games.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: 2018 has not begun in the way that Johanna Konta would have liked, but she is perhaps playing better than her results have suggested.

The loss to Bernarda Pera at the Australian Open was a disappointment for Konta, but otherwise she has been chugging along quite nicely and won the matches she is expected to. The defeat to Daria Kasatkina in Dubai would have hurt because Konta should have won that match, but her numbers remain decent and I think she can get the better of the talented Czech Marketa Vondrousova.

Vondrousova was a good winner in the First Round in Indian Wells and she has shown she is progressing by beating those players she is expected to. However the step up to the level that Konta is playing at has proved difficult with Vondrousova's return game perhaps not at the standard she would have liked.

I expect she will have some chances against the Konta serve which has not been as strong as I would have expected, even when playing those players outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings. However Konta is able to look after the second serve quite effectively in those matches and I think that is going to be the key in helping her get past a tough opponent.

Konta has to make sure her return is taking advantage of the second serve of Vondrousova in this one, but I do think she is capable of doing that in a win on Friday.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: This is the second year in a row that these two players are meeting at Indian Wells and Irina-Camelia Begu did ride her luck in a narrow loss to Karolina Pliskova. On another day Pliskova would have won very comfortably and I am looking for Friday 9th March 2018 to be another day.

I have enough faith in Pliskova's serve to at least keep Begu under pressure especially as the latter has struggled when she has moved up to face the best players on the Tour. Her return numbers against top 50 Ranked players is not really up to the standard needed to win those matches and it is going to be more difficult if Pliskova is up to par in this one.

The key to the cover of this amount of games will be how well Begu serves as she is a very capable player on that side of the court herself. Those numbers haven't slipped at all when playing the best players on the Tour and Pliskova can be criticised at times when analysing her returning numbers.

However I do think Pliskova matches up well with Begu who has not served as well as she would have liked in the last couple of tournaments played. Pliskova's return numbers have been impressive when facing players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2018 and I do think she will have the time to try and get into a strong position on the courts of Indian Wells.

There are times when Pliskova can be way short of the level expected of her, but I think she will have enough break points in this one to have a chance to cover. I will look for better efficiency than when these two met here last year and I think Pliskova can cover in a win.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johnna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 5.30 Units (32 Units Staked, - 16.56% Yield)