There is no doubt that every NFL fan and a large majority of sports fans have been thinking about Damar Hamlin this week after the scary minutes of seeing the Buffalo Safety fighting for his life on the field on Monday Night Football.
It is a reminder that the sports we love are being played by human beings who are sons/daughters, brothers/sisters and fathers/mothers with real lives that are affected.
Of course we are going to be unhappy when our teams lose or blow a big play, but trolling athletes for mistakes is embarrassing and Hamlin's situation should be a reminder to anyone who partakes in such things of the potential impact you are having on another human being. Even Tee Higgins was not spared this week after being involved in a clear football play, but this is the world we live in these days and it is quite sad to see.
Hopefully Damar Hamlin will live a full, healthy life as he recovers from this moment. All praise to those who helped him first and the medical staff that have saved his life.
Just like that we have reached Week 18, the final week of the regular season.
PlayOff berths are still up for grabs at the bottom of both Conferences, while the AFC South Divisional Championship will be decided on Saturday.
Seedings are still to be worked out, but all will be confirmed by the end of Sunday night and the Wild Card Round will be set.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: There really is a lot of uncertainty as to what the NFL will decide to do after the awful events witnessed by a national audience in Cincinnati. While all thoughts are with Damar Hamlin and his family and friends, the NFL have an issue to deal with at the top of the AFC.
If this was only going to affect Seeding between Number 2 and Number 4 for the Divisional winners, I think it would have been easier for the NFL to make a decision that likely involved a cancellation. However, the Bills could have finished with the much coveted Number 1 Seed in the AFC if they had won their remaining two games and so there is going to be an awkward decision that has to be made in the NFL offices.
The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) can only try and focus on winning this final regular season game with the likelihood that it will lead to the top Seed in the Conference. They would have the better winning percentage than the Bills if they are able to do that and would mean all roads to the Super Bowl have to come through Kansas City in this Conference.
Of course we don't really know how teams and players are going to have been affected by the scenes from Monday Night Football and that brings plenty of uncertainty to the table. While the Kansas City Chiefs have the motivation to try and finish with the Number 1 Seed, the Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) will be hosting this game having been eliminated from the post-season in what has been an underwhelming year.
They have already made the switch at Quarter Back from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham and you do have to wonder how hard the Raiders players are willing to play having seen a peer go down as he did on Monday Night Football. Spoiling things for a Divisional rival will provide some motivation, especially against the hated Chiefs, but players are human and emotionally it could be a really tough test and even more so after the effort put into a close loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17.
The Raiders will look to establish Josh Jacobs and give their young Quarter Back a chance to play from third and manageable spots, but this may not be as easy as it once was. In recent games the Offensive Line have not opened up the big gaps for Jacobs, while the Kansas City Defensive Line have just stepped up their play in restricting those attacks on the ground.
Even then, I do think Josh Jacobs will have a good game and that should help Jarrett Stidham who will be throwing into a tough Kansas City Secondary. The pass rush pressure will just be another problem for an inexperienced Quarter Back to deal with, but Stidham does have Davante Adams and decent support Receivers that can make plays for him in the passing game.
A key for the Las Vegas Raiders is making sure they remain competitive so they can stick to the game plan that they want to run.
And a huge part of doing that is looking for the Raiders Defensive unit to continue their strong play of recent weeks as they prepare to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs Offense.
Patrick Mahomes has had his way with the Las Vegas Raiders since being moved into the starting spot for the Kansas City Chiefs and he will feel he can continue that dominance. He can hand the ball off to Isiah Pacheco and have the rookie Running Back rip off some big gains, but Andy Reid is not someone that enjoys pounding the rock all day and will keep Mahomes throwing the ball as long as possible.
I do think the Chiefs will be able to establish the run when they go that route and it may be key for Patrick Mahomes as he faces an improved Secondary who have been playing hard for the team.
Stopping Patrick Mahomes completely is very, very unlikely, but the Raiders don't need to lose their focus in coverage by asking more players to try and pressure the top Quarter Back. Instead they will look for the Defensive Line to challenge this Kansas City Offensive Line at the line of scrimmage and try and take away the passing lanes for Patrick Mahomes down the field.
It would not be a big surprise to see Mahomes scrambling and picking up some First Downs with his legs, but this is a big spread if the Raiders are even semi-focused on trying to spoil the party. They look like they can control the clock at times and Kansas City have had issues closing out games for much of the season and could easily allow a backdoor cover if needed.
Kansas City have dominated this series in recent seasons, but they are just 2-13-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games against a team with a losing record, while they have failed to cover in any of their last six Divisional games.
As disappointing as the season has been, Las Vegas have covered in their last six games against a team with a winning record and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six at home. This is a team who have played hard after a loss with a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven following a defeat and I do think there are enough points for the home team to keep this one competitive.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There were questions about the motivation of the Tennessee Titans (7-9) ahead of their Week 17 game against the Dallas Cowboys- it was clear to Mike Vrabel and the team that the game was effectively meaningless and winning in Week 18 would be enough to secure a place in the post-season and so the Titans did decide to rest a number of key players in the eventual loss to the Cowboys.
The same approach could have been taken by the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8), but Head Coach Doug Pederson made it clear he wanted his starters to play in Week 17. They did get the better of the Houston Texans and that means there is a pathway to the PlayOffs that can be found even with a loss on Saturday, but Pederson will have been frustrated that his team have been scheduled to play a day earlier than he would have wanted.
Facing a rested opponent increases the pressure on the Jaguars who are favoured having pushed their way to the front of the AFC South thanks to winning four games in a row. That is real momentum for a team who looked to be well on their way to another losing season a few weeks ago, and a vastly different way to enter this pivotal Week 18 clash compared with the Tennessee Titans who have lost six in a row.
Losing Ryan Tannehill is a massive blow for Tennessee and they will be starting this game with Joshua Dobbs at Quarter Back. The newly signed veteran showed enough in Week 17 to have the Titans believing he is a superior option to Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs will benefit from having Derrick Henry behind him in the backfield.
The Tennessee approach to this game is not going to surprise anyone on the other sideline, but actually stopping Derrick Henry can be a challenging task. However, the Jaguars Defensive Line will feel they are playing well enough to contain King Henry and ensure he is not able to take over this game, while also forcing Joshua Dobbs to have to make some plays to keep the chains moving.
Being in third and manageable will give Joshua Dobbs a chance, otherwise he is likely going to be dealing with a significant Jacksonville pass rush that has gotten to the Quarter Back with regularity. It also becomes much more difficult to throw against the improving Jacksonville Secondary and Dobbs is going to have to be wary of throwing an Interception or two that could prove to be very costly.
Jacksonville may feel they can do enough on the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball to limit Derrick Henry, but they are not going to have a lot of joy in establishing the run themselves. Travis Etienne has had a strong season and the Jaguars Offensive Line have been a good unit to run behind, but the Titans have proven all season that they are not the team to give up much at the line of scrimmage and so it is a game that is made for Trevor Lawrence to take the next step in his professional career.
Some may have doubted Trevor Lawrence, but the Quarter Back has really grown over the last several weeks to guide the Jaguars into this position where they could return to the post-season.
The Offensive Line should be able to keep the pocket clean enough for Lawrence, even if he is throwing from third and long spots, and he has shown he can dissect Secondaries with his passing accuracy and arm strength. Interceptions have been a feature of the Titans Secondary in recent weeks, but they are still giving up significant numbers through the air and I do think Trevor Lawrence will do enough to put the Jaguars in a position to win and cover.
In recent seasons the Titans have been one of the top teams in the AFC and they have dominated this series with the Jaguars, but there does feel like a shift, at least at the end of this season.
While Tennessee does have a good road record against the spread, they are just 0-4-2 against the spread in their six game losing run and I simply don't think they have had the time to get Joshua Dobbs fully up to speed with the Offensive game plan. Add in the tough Defensive unit in front of them and I think Tennessee may struggle to score the points to stay with the home team in this AFC South decider.
The Jaguars have covered in each of their four game winning run and I think they can do that one more time.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: After the almost-tragic events of Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills (12-3) should feel a boost all around after hearing directly from Safety Damar Hamlin on Thursday.
Preparation for this Week 18 game would have been very difficult in most situations, especially playing on a short week, but the Bills players have been put through the emotional ringer over the last few days. Having Damar Hamlin on the road to recovery will be huge at the Bills may still have an opportunity to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and secure home field through the PlayOffs.
Of course the cancellation of the game at the Cincinnati Bengals was inevitable after what we all witnessed, but it has also left the NFL in a difficult position as to how to deal with the most unique of circumstances. Only the top Seed receives a Bye these days and of course that also means home field advantage, but the Bills can now only secure that by winning on Sunday and hoping Kansas City have been beaten on Saturday.
It puts some doubt as to how this game will go- if the Chiefs have won the NFL are offering up solutions as to how the AFC Championship Game will be played, but for Buffalo it will be clear that they have to play in the Wild Card Round next week. Sean McDermott will already be analysing and assessing his players and wondering if they are ready emotionally to compete, but if the Number 1 Seed is already gone, there is a scenario where players would be rested.
That could be a major plus for the New England Patriots (8-8) who suddenly find themselves in a 'win and you're in' situation after the collapse of the Miami Dolphins. A loss leaves the Patriots open to being overtaken by either the Dolphins or the Steelers, but Bill Belichick has to be happy with the position his team have forced for themselves.
If they are playing a Buffalo team that is unfocused or resting starters, the Patriots have a chance of the road win that will take them into the PlayOff (and potentially into a repeat against the Bills in the Wild Card Round).
Otherwise this is a very tough game for New England who have simply not matched up that well with the Buffalo Bills and who have struggled when facing the better teams in the NFL. They beat the Miami Dolphins last week to take control of the Number 7 Seed in the AFC, but the Patriots were out-gained in terms of yardage and the Offensive approach is one that the Bills Defensive unit will be comfortable dealing with.
New England will want to pound the rock, but they were restricted when these teams met in early December and even a returning Damien Harris is unlikely to provide a huge spark. If they cannot run the ball as they like, Mac Jones will be under pressure to win this game with his arm and I think the Buffalo Secondary has proven time and time again that they are not an easy team to beat through the air, at least not by a Quarter Back still finding his way in the pro game.
The biggest unknown remains the emotional mindset of the Buffalo players, but they are a team who can hurt the Patriots on the other side of the ball when at their best. Containing Josh Allen has proven to be beyond New England over the last couple of years and the Bills have won five of the last six between these AFC East rivals.
A strong Offensive Line will look to establish the run, but the key may be to get Josh Allen moving with his legs to just open up one or two passing lanes. It will be cold, but the conditions should not affect the Buffalo passing game and I think Allen has every chance of moving into the post-season behind a strong performance, even if he has not been quite at his best in recent weeks.
The Bills may not have a lot to play for, but the Patriots have failed to cover in their last four games against a team with a winning record. After all we saw on Monday, I feel the Buffalo players are going to be boosted by the news from Damar Hamlin and they can continue their dominance of this rivalry, although I would definitely look out for any news about starters and their time likely to be spent on the field if the Kansas City Chiefs have won on Saturday.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: If the ball had bounced slightly differently at times this season, the Minnesota Vikings (12-4) could easily have been chasing a Wild Card berth this week or perhaps even missing out on the post-season altogether. Instead they still have a chance to finish up with the Number 2 Seed in the tough NFC as they close out the regular season at the home of a Divisional rival.
Things are a lot different for the Chicago Bears (3-13) who have suffered through a miserable season, even though the developments seen in Justin Fields have been a bonus. The PlayOffs are of no concern for the Bears, but another loss coupled with a Houston win over Indianapolis would mean the Chicago Bears will be on the clock as the holders of the first pick in the NFL Draft coming up.
Unsurprisingly Justin Fields was shut down for the season and Nathan Peterman will be starting for the Chicago Bears at Quarter Back. There won't be many out there that believe Peterman is even a semi-decent backup, but he may be ideal for the Chicago Bears and the fanbase that will likely be very comfortable with a loss if it means a rapid turnaround for the franchise in the future.
The Bears may have suffered a somewhat competitive defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles, but their last two losses have been absolute blowouts with Chicago giving up more than 200 yards more than their opponent in both. Moving the ball in this one is going to be a massive challenge for Chicago, even against this Minnesota Defensive unit, and I think that is going to make it a very long day in the office for Nathan Peterman who has thrown 3 Touchdown passes and 14 Interceptions in his NFL career.
Chicago's best approach Offensively is going to be leaning on David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and hoping they can pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. The Bears Offensive Line looks to have produced some good numbers, but do not discount the impact Justin Fields has had on the running game and it is much different for Chicago with a much less mobile Quarter Back behind Center.
While it has been possible to run against the Vikings this season, I do think Minnesota will be daring Nathan Peterman to beat them through the air and the focus has to be on clamping down on the run up front. The RPO schemes are simply not going to be as daunting for Minnesota and putting Nathan Peterman behind the chains should see the Bears Offensive Line overwhelmed when it comes to the pass protection.
There may only be an outside chance of improving their Seeding, but Kevin O'Connell is expected to suit up his starters for this one as Minnesota look for some momentum following a crushing loss at the Green Bay Packers.
Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Offensive unit should be able to do what they like against this Chicago Defense which has traded away some key veterans through the course of the season.
The Quarter Back should be able to hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook and look for him to rip off some huge gains on the ground and that will only make things easier for Kirk Cousins when attacking this Secondary. Despite the Offensive Line issues in pass protection, being in third and manageable should mean Kirk Cousins has time and add to that the fact the Bears have struggled to get to the Quarter Back of late.
With little motivation, I doubt the Bears will suddenly hassle Kirk Cousins to the point of keeping this close and the Vikings can pull away for a big win.
Minnesota do have some really poor trends behind them, but the Chicago Bears are not faring any better and it should be a game dominated by the road team as Nathan Peterman struggles to keep up with Kirk Cousins.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There was never going to be a perfect way to deal with an unprecedented event, but the NFL's solutions to the PlayOff picture in the AFC are not making too many people happy at the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4). In fact, the Bengals are hoping enough teams reject the proposals set out by the NFL to deal with the cancellation of the game against the Buffalo Bills, a decision that has given Cincinnati the AFC North Divisional crown before Week 18.
However, the current proposals say a Baltimore Ravens (10-6) win on Sunday would mean relying on a coin flip to decide which of these teams host the Wild Card rematch that would take place next weekend. The reason would be that the Ravens had swept the season series, but were unable to have a real shot at playing for the Division, which may have been the case if the Bengals had lost to the Bills in Week 17.
It is a tough situation for the NFL to deal with, but the Bengals do have a chance to put that situation to rest by winning in Week 18.
Joe Burrow has admitted that some of his team-mates may find it difficult to get back on the field so soon after the events of Monday Night Football- you really have to wonder about Tee Higgins, although the news that Damar Hamlin is on the road to recover is a huge boost for the Wide Receiver who has been unfairly targeted by trolls.
Hearing that Hamlin is doing better should mean the Bengals are ready to go on Sunday, but preparation would have been far from ideal. The game may actually also mean more to the Bengals than the Ravens with the home field situation as it is, especially as Baltimore could choose to rest starters knowing they are very likely to be playing the same opponent again next week after losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.
Lamar Jackson has been ruled out again, while Tyler Huntley is banged up and may not be risked. It would mean Anthony Brown starting behind Center and I do think that is a considerable drop off for the Ravens, even from the struggling Huntley.
Injuries could mean John Harbaugh is unwilling to risk those who could be important for the Wild Card Game next weekend and the Ravens are likely to struggle with the Offensive match up against this much improved Cincinnati Defensive unit. Where Baltimore will want to run the ball, especially with Brown likely to be starting at Quarter Back, the Cincinnati Defensive Line have clamped down up front and they will force the youngster to try and beat them through the air.
The passing game has been problematic in Baltimore ever since Lamar Jackson has been injured and I think the Ravens may struggle to have much of an impact on this side of the ball.
There is also the problem of injuries on the other side of the ball with Calais Campbell out and the Ravens Defensive Line struggled in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers without him. The Steelers were able to pile up some big numbers on the ground and Joe Mixon has every chance of picking up where they left off, and perhaps even more so considering the Quarter Back play that the Bengals will get out of Joe Burrow.
I am expecting one or two absences in the Secondary for the road team and Joe Burrow may just come out slinging the ball and putting the Bengals in a strong position to win and win big. The margin of defeat will not be expected to become a factor in any potential rematch here next week, but the Bengals may just exert enough control of the game to win by double digits with Burrow likely to have a big game targeting his top Receivers.
The Ravens are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven against their AFC North rivals and I am not sure there is enough motivation for them to try and win this game in the hope that a coin flip will see them host next week.
Momentum is behind the Bengals too and I think they draw a line on the unfortunate incident that occurred in Week 17 on this field by covering for a sixth time in a row at home and ensuring that the Wild Card game is played here.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: At this stage of the regular season, five straight losses should have ended any hopes the Miami Dolphins (8-8) had in making the PlayOffs. They have certainly lost control of their own destiny, but the Dolphins still have an opportunity to play in the post-season if they can win this game and the Buffalo Bills can beat the New England Patriots.
Events on Monday Night Football has just made things that much more awkward for the Miami Dolphins- instead of hoping the Buffalo Bills are still trying to secure the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, there is every chance the Kansas City Chiefs would have cemented top spot on Saturday evening and so the Bills will perhaps not be as motivated as they may have been.
Mike McDaniel has made it clear that the Dolphins cannot do anything other than focusing on playing the New York Jets (7-9) who have just been eliminated from the post-season. Quarter Back play has let the Jets down and it has been announced that Mike White will not be playing in Week 18 and New York will go with veteran Joe Flacco.
Quarter Back problems are also affecting Miami with Skylar Thompson announced as the starter and it is going to take some effort from the Dolphins to simply win this game and force New England to win in Buffalo.
The Dolphins will feel confident despite their five game losing run and that is largely down to the recent New York Jets performances which have seen them lose three in a row. With a veteran at Quarter Back who has long seen his best days past him, the Jets could have some issues moving the ball in this game considering the unlikelihood of being able to establish the run in any kind of fashion like they would hope.
A struggling Offensive Line is one thing, but the Jets are also running into a Miami Defensive Line which has been key in clamping down on the run even though the team have hit a losing run. And unlike some of the Quarter Backs that have been faced in recent defeats, the Dolphins will feel their Secondary have the tools to control Joe Flacco and the passing game, especially as the limited movement offered by Flacco is going to see him under pressure when he does drop back to throw.
In saying that, there cannot be a huge confidence in Skylar Thompson for the Miami Dolphins- the rookie simply has not shown he can be as accurate or have the arm strength to get the ball down the field and he will rely on short passers and hope for yards after the catch. Thompson has thrown a single Touchdown pass with 3 Interceptions and he is facing a Jets Secondary that have some talented players to deal with Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle.
However, Skylar Thompson is likely going to receive a lot more help from his Offensive Line and Running Backs as far as positioning on the field is concerned. In recent games the Jets Defensive Line has shown some wear and tear from a long season and this Miami team have been able to get something out of Raheem Mostert which will encourage the team.
I also expect the rookie Miami Quarter Back to have enough time to make his throws with that running game established and it could be enough for the home team to at least do their part and win this one.
As the season has petered out for New York, the Jets are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
Miami have not exactly been a lot better, but they have won the yardage battle in their last two games and perhaps been a little unfortunate to not have beaten either the Green Bay Packers or New England Patriots. The Dolphins have largely been very good at home and I do think the support from the Running Backs and Offensive Line give them an edge over the Jets and Joe Flacco.
Asking a rookie to cover as a favourite is not ideal, but the Jets may struggle to even motivate themselves to play spoiler as it could be doing another AFC East rival a favour. Losing last week in the fashion they did is a concern and I will back the Dolphins to come away with a winning record for the season, even if it still leaves them short of a PlayOff berth.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Instead of wrapping up the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and ensuring a Bye through to the Divisional Round AND home field advantage in the post-season, the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) have dropped back to back games and just left the door slightly ajar to three teams chasing them with twelve wins on the board.
Once again the Eagles look for the fourteenth win of the 2022 season which will earn them the top Seed in the Conference as they host Divisional rivals the New York Giants (9-6-1) in Week 18.
The injury to Jalen Hurts has been key to the two Philadelphia defeats against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, but one piece of good news is that the Quarter Back is trending towards starting in Week 18 and then earning two weeks of rest before playing in the Divisional Round.
A major second factor is that the New York Giants have nothing to play for and are likely going to be sitting key starters in preparation for their Wild Card game next week. Playing spoiler would be fun against a Divisional rival, but the Giants have made it clear that they are more interested in having a successful season of their own and that means doing what is best for New York rather than the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers or Minnesota Vikings.
A drive or two would not be a big surprise from the New York starters, but the Giants will want to wrap up Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley as soon as possible. Losing either would be criticised wholeheartedly in Gotham and the Coaching Staff know they have a tough road game to come next week where both players will be really important.
Even if they were playing all of their Offensive starters, the Giants could struggle to really get things going against this opponent, which has looked a bad match up for them. Signing veterans to improve the Defensive Line play against the run has been important for the Philadelphia Eagles and they would likely be daring Daniel Jones and his mix of Wide Receivers to try and beat them through the air, although that is no easy task considering the talent the Eagles have in the Secondary.
Starters could have had issues and the backups are not expected to fare much better.
This should mean Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Offensive unit are able to produce enough points to secure the top Seed and the potential blowout is on, especially as the Eagles are likely to be entering a Bye Week. One major difference for Hurts is that Lane Johnson is going to be absent, but the Right Tackle is hopeful of returning for the Divisional Round and the mobility of the Philadelphia Quarter Back has been a true miss for the current Number 1 Seed.
Philadelphia should be much more effective at running the ball with the threat that Jalen Hurts will tuck the ball in and make plays himself and this Giants team have had issues all season in stropping teams on the ground. When these teams met earlier in the season, the Eagles piled up over 250 yards rushing the ball and I think Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders have big games to set the team up for the victory.
There is no doubt that the passing game will also have more consistency with Jalen Hurts back behind Center and I do think the Eagles will be able to pull away for a big win.
I do worry about a spread of this size and that is because it is very open to a backdoor cover, while the Eagles could take the foot off the gas once the game is in control.
However, Tyrod Taylor may not be able to move the ball as effectively as Daniel Jones and that may end up costing New York some short fields as the Eagles end up with a crushing victory.
The Giants have a strong 4-1 record against the spread in their last five visits to this NFC East rival, but motivational factors have to be questioned and the bigger picture is the focus on the PlayOffs beginning next week rather than this game.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: There is still a chance for the Dallas Cowboys (12-4) to win the NFC East and even the Number 1 Seed if they are able to win in the nation's capital and the Philadelphia Eagles are to lose to the New York Giants in the other game being played at the same time.
It is a long shot when you think of the likelihood of the Giants resting starters, but the Cowboys have momentum of their own with six wins in seven games and are also playing off a 'mini bye' having beaten the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. This should mean Mike McCarthy chooses to give his starters ample playing time to make sure they don't lose any rhythm before what is likely to be three road games between the Cowboys and the Super Bowl.
Winning games in January is going to be key in determining McCarthy's future as Head Coach in Dallas and it has been a long time since the team found consistency in this month. There has to be a potential for the Cowboys to pull the starters in the second half if Philadelphia have a big lead in their own game, but Dallas have motivation to end the season with a strong win before heading off to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round if they are unable to improve their Seeding.
They are facing a Washington Commanders (7-8-1) team who have lost three in a row to be eliminated from the PlayOffs, although Head Coach Ron Rivera was seemingly unaware that could be a possibility in Week 17. The sub-par Quarter Back play has proven to be too much to overcome and Washington will be giving the ball to Sam Howell this week to see how the rookie can handle a full NFL game.
Both Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke have underperformed and Howell is surrounded by some solid weapons at Running Back and Wide Receiver. However, he is facing a Dallas Defensive unit that has been really good all season and the rookie is likely to have some teething problems in the pro ranks.
While the game is close, Brian Robinson Jr should be able to pound the rock with some success and keeping Sam Howell in third and manageable will be key to the outcome of this one. Obvious passing situations means dealing with the very strong Dallas pass rush and also throwing into a ball-hawking Secondary that will be looking to give the rookie Quarter Back the kind of outing that he won't soon forget.
A Secondary that takes chances to make big plays do allow one or two big gains and Sam Howell does have a couple of solid Receiving options that he can target. However, you have to imagine the rookie is going to make one or two mistakes that could give the Dallas Cowboys to win and win well on the road.
Recent games have not seen the Dallas Offensive Line at their best, but I do think they have faced tougher Defensive Lines than the one they may see in Week 18. Running the ball against the Eagles and Titans is not an easy task, but I expect more out of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard in Washington and that should just open up the playbook for Dak Prescott, who continues to mainly play well at Quarter Back.
Running the ball will be key to slowing down the Washington pass rush, while also meaning Prescott can get the ball out of his hands quickly enough to negate the pressure that will be coming in on him. This Commanders Secondary has to be respected for continuing to play hard, but I like the way CeeDee Lamb is being deployed by the Cowboys and my feeling is that Dallas will secure a big win by shutting things down on the Defensive side of the ball.
The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight visits to Washington and they have a strong record against NFC East rivals in recent seasons, while Dallas are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen when facing a team with a losing record.
After being eliminated from the PlayOff picture, Washington's motivation has to be questioned, especially with reports that Ron Rivera could be let go as soon as Monday. Offensively the Commanders may struggle to score enough points for even a backdoor cover and they are 1-4 against the spread in their five Divisional games played this season.
Barring a complete withdrawal of the starters for the second half, Dallas should be able to win and cover.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There is always one game flexed into the late Sunday primetime spot in the final week of the NFL, but the League always hopes it is a standalone game. On the face of things there is every chance this NFC North Divisional game will decide the last PlayOff place, but it has not been lost on anyone that the early schedule will dictate the overall importance of this one.
For the Green Bay Packers (8-8) nothing will change regardless of any permutation of results earlier in the day- they simply need to win a fifth game in a row and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be the Number 7 Seed in the NFC.
Things are murkier for the Detroit Lions (8-8) who will be eliminated if the Seattle Seahawks have beaten the Los Angeles Rams in the late afternoon slot. Players are going to be well aware of what has happened in Seattle when getting ready for this one, although Head Coach Dan Campbell will be demanding a strong end to the season even if the Lions are eliminated.
However, players are human beings and you do have to wonder what kind of emotional blow it will be if the Seahawks have won and the Lions, who have won seven of their last nine games, have fallen just short of the post-season. A deflated team could be potentially dangerous as they look to spoil the season for a hate rival on the road no less, but there also the potential for the entire sideline to be very flat.
Regardless of the situation, this is a tough game for the Detroit Lions on the Offensive side of the ball thanks to the vast improvements made by the Green Bay Defense. Most notable is the amount of turnovers they are finding and Jared Goff has regularly struggled in cold conditions as he looks to beat the Packers for the second time in the 2022 season.
The key for Goff and the Lions is making sure this game is competitive and they do not have to ignore the running game. We have seen Detroit's Offensive Line open up some solid holes for the Running Backs and the Green Bay Defensive Line continue to struggle to clamp down on the run.
Keeping the ball on the ground means controlling the clock, and limiting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Offensive unit's touches, while also wearing down the Packers and not having to throw into a Secondary which has been playing at a high level. A clean game gives the Lions a chance, especially as Jared Goff tends to be well protected and could find some of his Receivers down the field when using play-action to just get the Linebackers and Safeties to jump into position to try and stop the run.
Detroit should have some successes, but the Green Bay Packers look to have real momentum behind them and an improving passing game makes them very dangerous. The first game-plan will still involve Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon pounding the rock and the Packers will have seen what the Carolina Panthers did to the Detroit Defensive Line a couple of weeks ago, although that was also partly down to the RPO schemes that the Panthers will run.
Even then, there are holes up front and I do think the Packers Offensive Line can help exploit those for the Running Backs and that should make Aaron Rodgers' life that much more comfortable at Quarter Back. It has taken some time, but Rodgers looks to have found some chemistry with his new look Receiving corps, although the Packers will be facing an under-rated Lions Secondary and a pass rush that can get to the Quarter Back efficiently.
Turnovers are likely going to be the key to the outcome of the game and it was turnovers that cost Green Bay in a close loss to the Lions in Detroit. At the moment Aaron Rodgers is being a little more careful with his throws, while the Packers Defensive unit are finding a way to get the ball back into the hands of their future Hall of Fame player and I think that will be important in this late night offering.
My feeling is that Seattle will win earlier in the day too and a deflated Detroit might not have the emotional energy to keep up with a Green Bay team that have won four in a row.
Detroit have matched up well with the Packers in recent meetings and they are 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven between these NFC North rivals, but I think the momentum behind Green Bay will see them score in a late drive to take them over this number.
MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders + 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
