NFL Week 18 Picks 2025 (Saturday 4th January-Sunday 5th January)

Remarkably we have moved into the final week of the NFL regular season with seventeen weeks already in the books and with one more left to go.

Fourteen places are up for grabs in the NFL Playoffs when the season begins and twelve of those have already been secured as we move into Week 18.

Seeding is still up for grabs, most notably the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will be decided on Sunday Night Football, while the AFC North Division will be decided on Saturday with both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers playing in back to back games.

The Wild Card Round of the Playoffs is set to be played across next weekend and so it is no surprise that some of the teams that have secured their place in the post-season will choose to shut down starters. That does mean Saquon Barkley is not going to be given the time to snap the regular season record for rushing yards, but the Philadelphia Eagles Running Back is unlikely to be disappointed if it means winning a Super Bowl.

Decisions that are going to be made by the Head Coaches in terms of starters makes the week a little harder to call so you just have to be that much more careful with the selections being made.

The NFL Picks for the 2024 season had been in good shape through the first half of the regular season, but Week 9 through to Week 16 had been much tougher and undone a lot of the good work that had been put together.

Despite the poor run, the NFL Picks have produced a positive number for the regular season going into Week 17.

We had some luck with the Cincinnati Bengals pick, but misfortune when backing the Atlanta Falcons to cover against the Washington Commanders to even those games out and overall the 7-3 record from the ten Picks made means the regular season has been a good one.

Being careful through Week 18 is the key before heading into the Playoffs and two solid weeks out of three have just restored some lost momentum from the second half of the regular season.

Picks from the Week 18 games will be added to this thread and can be read below.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: One more win will secure the AFC North Division for the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) and that would mean earning the Number 3 Seed in the Playoff and a home game next week. Three blowout wins in a row have put the Ravens in a strong position and they are a massive favourite to beat the Cleveland Browns (3-13).

The Browns have had a miserable season all in all and they will be looking forward to drawing a line under the campaign and try and go again in 2025. There is every chance they could still secure the Number 1 Draft Pick with a loss and some help on Sunday and even the desire to play spoiler for a rival may not be as high considering the Ravens have already secured a Playoff spot.

Instead the motivation might be on the side of the home team considering they were beaten in Cleveland and have lost three of their last four games against the Browns.

The exception in that little run is a blowout win for Baltimore and they may have the capabilities of crushing this Browns team that may be down to a fourth choice Quarter Back.

For now it sounds like Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be given the start, but Cleveland are toying with the idea of Bailey Zappe at Quarter Back instead after the poor play of DTR. Jameis Winston is going to be the emergency Quarter Back, but neither Thompson-Robinson nor Zappe are going to give the Ravens too much to worry about.

The Browns would love to establish the run to set things up, but that looks a much tougher task against the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line and especially with so little to play for. Jerome Ford might not even suit up and it is asking a lot of either of the two expected starting Quarter Backs to exploit this Ravens Secondary if playing from third and long spots on the field.

It would mean facing the Baltimore pass rush, which has been getting after the Quarter Back, and errant throws will be picked off by the Defensive Backs who have benefited from the pressure being produced up front.

Lamar Jackson has just set a new rushing record for Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he will be well aware of the challenges that the Cleveland Browns have given to him in the past. However, between Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens should be able to establish the run, even against this tough Browns Defensive Line, and that should just open things up for the pass.

The Ravens have found a decent balance with their Offensive unit and Lamar Jackson has proved he can run and throw the ball effectively. The big test will be taking that into the Playoff and really giving Baltimore the level needed to have a deep run, but this is a final regular season game and the Quarter Back should have spaces to exploit.

Having a player like Derrick Henry behind him means the Ravens are able to negate much of the pass rush and the Ravens Offensive Line should give Lamar Jackson time to make his plays down the field.

Of course this is a huge spread and it will be very difficult for the home team to overcome the mark, although the feeling is that as little as 24 points could be enough for Baltimore.

The Browns might not have the same motivation to play spoiler as if this game was played a couple of weeks ago and Baltimore have won three in a row by huge margins.

After losing in Cleveland, Baltimore will be that much more focused and that can help them secure the AFC North behind a big win- a couple of turnovers may just give them those extra possessions to beat a Cleveland team thinking ahead rather than on this final regular season game.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Two AFC North rivals have plenty to play for this weekend and that is even if the Baltimore Ravens have won the Division before kickoff.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) can only win the Division if the Ravens are upset by the Cleveland Browns in the early Saturday kickoff, although that is very unlikely considering the huge favourite the Ravens are.

Of course that will mean there are question marks about whether the Steelers would play their starters with a Playoff spot already secured if they have nothing more than Seeding to play for. At the moment the Steelers are in control of the Number 5 Seed which would mean a road game at the Houston Texans rather than falling into Number 6 and having to face the Baltimore Ravens again.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin has indicated that he would not consider resting starters even if the Steelers are unable to win the Division, although that mindset could potentially change. The Steelers have lost three in a row to lose control of the AFC North and there is a feeling that they would love to have more positive momentum before playing their first Playoff Game next week.

Russell Wilson has enjoyed a good season at Quarter Back and he racked up 414 passing yards in the win over the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) on the road. However, that was the Bengals at the end of a three game losing run and they have just given themselves hope of reaching the post-season having won four in a row since then.

The Steelers should be able to have a positive day Offensively if the starters are in the game with the Offensive Line expected to establish the run, which makes things that much more comfortable for Russell Wilson at Quarter Back. Pittsburgh look healthier and Wilson will feel he can exploit the issues the Bengals have had in the Secondary all season, even if the Offensive Line have just suffered in pass protection.

Interceptions have helped power the Cincinnati run of wins and they will be hoping they can step in front of some of the passes in this one as the Bengals look to finish with a winning record and then scoreboard watch on Sunday.

Joe Burrow and the Offensive unit deserve a lot of credit for keeping Cincinnati alive too having beaten the Denver Broncos to make this a meaningful game for themselves in Week 18.

The Quarter Back is clearly a very good player, but it does help that the Bengals have two top Receiving options and Burrow has made it clear that he hopes that both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still playing here in September 2025. And Cincinnati's Offensive Line have just found some spaces for Chase Brown to exploit on the ground during this winning run, although Brown is not expected to suit up this week.

Pass protection has been a problem for Cincinnati, but Joe Burrow has taken the hits and still gotten up and attacked teams effectively down the field. You have to believe that Joe Burrow is hugely encouraged by the successes teams have had throwing against the Steelers Secondary during their losing run and the belief is that the Cincinnati Bengals can do enough to keep Playoff hopes alive through another day.

The uncertainty of the approach that Pittsburgh will take is a concern, but you have to believe that Mike Tomlin will have his starters out on the field to build rhythm for at least half of this game, even if Baltimore have won.

It could see the Steelers score enough points to at least help combine with the Cincinnati Bengals to cover this total line set, especially if the game is anything like their first meeting. With plenty of throwing likely to be used, especially by the Bengals, this could stretch out the game and both Offensive units may show off their playmakers in a high scoring Week 18 outing.

At the end of the day, it may be the Bengals who have enough motivation and momentum to edge to the win on the road to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17 has meant the Green Bay Packers (11-5) have lost their grip on the Number 6 Seed in the NFC.

They are going to be playing in the Wild Card Round next week, and the Packers will still be looking to finish the season with a strong performance and try and move back above the Washington Commanders. Playing at the Los Angeles Rams rather than the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round has to be motivation enough for the Packers who have fallen to the best teams they have faced this season.

Fortunately for Green Bay, this is not one of the best teams and the Chicago Bears (4-12) are about to enter an uncertain off-season with a new Head Coach to be appointed. The early signs were positive for the Bears, but things began to go wrong when allowing the aforementioned Commanders beat them on a Hail Mary and that sparked a ten game losing run.

For much of that run, the Bears had been competitive, but they haven't even been that over the last four weeks and even the additional time to prepare to face a Divisional rival is unlikely to have helped turn the page.

The Bears have been struggling mightily on the Offensive side of the ball with the team having problems establishing the run, which has left Caleb Williams in a tough spot behind an under fire Offensive Line. There has simply not been a lot of protection offered to the rookie Quarter Back, and Williams must be looking forward to the end of the season even more so than many of his team-mates.

Caleb Williams does have some Receivers who can make plays for him, but the Bears may be behind the chains against this Packers Defensive Line and that is only going to see the pocket collapse around the Quarter Back. This has proven to make it tough for consistent drives to be maintained, while Williams will have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Green Bay Packers have manufactured.

Giving Jordan Love and the Offensive unit extra possessions could be key to covering a big spread and the Green Bay Quarter Back is looking for a confidence boosting performance in the final game of the regular season. Following the loss to the Vikings, Jordan Love made it clear he needs to be a bit better to get Green Bay over the line against the stronger teams they are set to face in the NFL Playoffs.

He can lean on the Packers Offensive Line much more than Caleb Williams can do with the Bears unit and Josh Jacobs can keep Green Bay in third and manageable spots against a worn down Chicago Defensive Line.

With plenty of time being afforded to him, Jordan Love should find the spaces to exploit in the Chicago Secondary and the Packers can certainly move into the Wild Card Round behind a big win.

The Bears should have beaten Green Bay when hosting them at Soldier Field in November, but the defeat has maintained the Packers dominance of this rivalry. Before that narrow win, the Packers had also cleared the lines the layers had set for them against the Bears and they can get back to doing what they do best against Chicago with the likelihood that the starters will stay in the game for the full game.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: It always surprises to see Head Coaches mismanage the time at the end of games as often as they do and Raheem Morris admitted his failure to use one of two Time Outs left at the end of the Fourth Quarter in Week 17 might have proved costly for his team. The Atlanta Falcons (8-8) wasted too much time and ended up having to take a long Field Goal, which came up short, and ultimately were then beaten in Overtime by the Washington Commanders.

It is a devastating defeat that means the Falcons have lost control of their own destiny- if they had won in Week 17, Atlanta would have been one win away from securing the NFC South Division and earning the Number 4 Seed in the Playoff, but now they need to win and hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are upset when playing New Orleans at the same time.

Making the Playoffs is a long shot right now, but the Falcons will have to focus and make sure they do their end of the bargain by beating the Carolina Panthers (4-12) who have lost five of their last six games, including a 34 point blowout at the hands of the Buccaneers in Week 17.

Players like Chuba Hubbard have been shut down for the season and the Panthers are another team who will have a relatively high Draft Pick with big decisions to make.

Bryce Young looks to have done enough to earn another shot as the starting Quarter Back and he will be hoping that someone can step up and fill Hubbard's shoes more effectively than they did last week. The Quarter Back did not play badly against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Panthers were unable to establish the run and the one-dimensional Offensive plan was pretty easy for the Buccaneers to deal with.

At least this week the Panthers Offensive Line are facing an Atlanta team that have allowed plenty of yards to be picked up on the ground and that should be a huge boost for Young.

There is little doubt that Bryce Young will need that help considering the improved play of the Falcons Secondary in the second half of the season. The hope is that Carolina can establish the run and sustain drives with the Quarter Back asked to complete third and manageable spots on the field.

However, any time the Panthers are behind the chains it becomes much tougher for Bryce Young operating behind an Offensive Line that has not been nearly as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking. In recent games, Atlanta have found a very positive pass rush and that could be key to stalling drives and giving the Offensive unit a chance to win this game for the home team.

Michael Penix Jr has had little starting time for the Atlanta Falcons, but has shown enough to have the fans believing that the page being turned from Kirk Cousins to the rookie came too late and ultimately has cost the Falcons a spot in the post-season. He began poorly last week on the road at Washington, but Penix Jr recovered really well and was not helped by his Head Coach in his bid to win both of the starts made for Atlanta.

He should be able to lean on Bijan Robinson and the Offensive Line in this one to make things all the more comfortable and the Falcons are expected to have the qualities needed to rip open some big gains on the ground. This is going to make life comfortable for the rookie Quarter Back and Michael Penix Jr is expected to have the time to find his playmakers down the field.

Both teams should have success moving the ball in this final regular season game, but Atlanta's balanced Offensive unit should have the edge.

Bryce Young has played well since being restored to the starting lineup, but this Falcons Secondary is playing with more confidence and the pass rush might just force a couple of good field positions for Michael Penix Jr and the rest of the Offensive unit. The Panthers showed in Week 17 that their desire to really compete might just have slackened a touch and Penix Jr can have a very strong game before the team begins scoreboard watching and hoping for an upset in Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There must have been a feeling that the disappointing Week 16 loss at the Dallas Cowboys might have been the fatal blow to the Playoff hopes, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) have been given a second opportunity to secure the NFC South Division.

No one needs to scoreboard watch with their destiny back under their own control and Tampa Bay only need to beat this Divisional rival in Week 18 to earn the Number 4 Seed in the NFC.

Five wins in six games have given the Buccaneers every opportunity to win the Division and they blew out the Carolina Panthers to bounce back from the disappointment of losing in Dallas. Being at home and facing an eliminated opponent means all of the cards are in Tampa Bay's favour and they are set as a very big favourite.

That is no surprise against the New Orleans Saints (5-11) who have been hit hard by injury and who have suffered three defeats in a row with the last two being blow out losses.

The awful terrorist attack on New Year's Day in New Orleans will have rallied the Saints together and it will give them motivation to end this season and give their community something to smile about. Of course the Saints players would have been concerned about any family members or team members that had headed into New Orleans to celebrate the New Year and it will have been an emotional time for the team before heading to Tampa Bay.

Spencer Rattler is expected to earn another start at Quarter Back for the New Orleans Saints, but this is going to be a tough test for him without some key Saints playmakers. Alvin Kamara is questionable to play, but even with the Running Back healthy and ready to go, it would have been tough for the New Orleans Saints to establish the run against this Buccaneers Defensive Line playing at a very high level.

Instead all of the pressure will be on Rattler and the rookie Quarter Back is going to be put under duress by this Tampa Bay pass rush. This pressure up front has helped the Tampa Bay Secondary produce some big games of late, while Spencer Rattler has made rookie mistakes when trying to force passes down the field.

Extra possessions would make things all the more comfortable for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers who have overcome losing some key players to maintain momentum and look to have another Playoff run.

Earning the Number 4 Seed will mean a meeting with either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round, but Tampa Bay know the Playoffs is a 'new season' for teams and the Buccaneers have to be confident of heading into that game with a lot of momentum behind them.

Bucky Irving has taken over as the lead Running Back and he has to be excited about playing behind this Buccaneers Offensive Line that has been able to bully teams up front. The home team are expected to rack up some serious yards on the ground and Bucky Irving also represents a threat coming out of the backfield to give Baker Mayfield another option in the passing game.

Being in front of the chains should mean Baker Mayfield has that bit more time to attack this New Orleans Secondary and the veteran has proven himself to be very comfortable in the system being run. Mike Evans continues to play at a really high level and the Buccaneers should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air as they take the game to New Orleans.

Make no mistake, this is a huge spread and a backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but Tampa Bay have been in really good form and crushed the Carolina Panthers by 34 points last week. Backing up those big wins is tough, but prior to the defeat to Dallas, Tampa Bay had won four games in a row by margins of 23, 3, 15 and 23 points and they have all of the momentum to blowout a Saints team that have been outscored by 50 points in their last three losses.

Earlier this season, the Buccaneers racked up just shy of 600 Offensive yards in beating New Orleans by 24 points on the road and they should have all of the momentum to win this game comfortably in Week 18 too.

There is an outside chance that the Buccaneers could actually improve Seeding with a win too, but the only real focus has to be winning to ensure Playoff Football is played next weekend.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The NFC West Division crown has already been secured by the Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and they are either going to finish with the Number 3 or Number 4 Seed in the Playoff.

With that in mind, Sean McVay has made it clear that he will give some key players a rest before the Wild Card Round is played next weekend and that includes starting Quarter Back Matthew Stafford.

Jimmy Garoppolo is very assured as the backup, but he may be without some of the top Receiving options and the starting Running Back with the mentality already focused on the Wild Card rather than finishing the regular season with another victoy.

The Seattle Seahawks (9-7) still have plenty to play for, even if the season ends in Week 18.

An opportunity to win ten games in a single season would see the team surpass 2023, which is a boost, while there are players that have personal incentives to reach. Head Coach Mike Macdonald has made it clear that his Seahawks team are going to be playing to win, even if finishing with the same record as the Rams would see them miss out on a deep tie-breaker, and the fact that Los Angeles are going in with a host of backups helps.

You cannot really know what to expect from the Los Angeles backups and they are not likely to contain the run, although Geno Smith is going to take to the air to make sure the incentives are reached. The Quarter Back has been under duress behind this Offensive Line, but that should be eased in this final regular season game and Geno Smith should be able to hit his playmakers down the field.

The Seahawks are going to be motivated having lost the first of the regular season meetings in early November, despite being the better team, and the Rams may not be able to sustain Offensive drives in this one.

Improvements made down the stretch makes it tough for the Rams and the second string to have a lot of success and that begins with the challenges to run the ball against this Seattle Defensive Line.

Experience is not a problem for Jimmy Garoppolo, but playing behind the chains is tough and Seattle's Secondary have also shown enough down the stretch to offer the team some positives to take into 2025. The Seahawks can build some pass rush pressure and they may be able to force some errant throws from Garoppolo, which may just give Seattle the edge and the momentum to push through and cover this spread.

Los Angeles have won three in a row in the series, but the Seattle Seahawks might have the motivation to come through with a big road win.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: Jim Harbaugh has guided the Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) back into the Playoff in his first season as the Head Coach and he has made it clear that his starters will be playing even with the Wild Card Round to come next week.

There is an outside chance that the Chargers can improve Seeding with a victory, but they will know where they stand by the time this game kicks off as they need a Pittsburgh defeat on Saturday.

In Week 17 the Chargers crushed the New England Patriots on the road and they are not expected to play at home again this season, so there is a road warrior mentality that Jim Harbaugh will want to harness and this is an opportunity to build momentum.

Of course the Las Vegas Raiders (4-12) will want to try and spoil the plan for a rival from within the AFC West and they have won consecutive games, although that might have been costly for the Raiders and their bid to earn a very high NFL Draft Pick.

The wins have been against Jacksonville and New Orleans and this is a significant upgrade in opponent for the Raiders to beat in their final game of the season.

Las Vegas will be hoping they can establish the run, although it has not been the best of time for this Offensive Line which has worn down. However, there have been spaces to exploit against this Chargers Defensive Line and that may be a positive for Aidan O'Connell at Quarter Back.

He should have some time to find Brock Bowers, who has set a new rookie record for Receiving yards out of the Tight End position, and that should give Las Vegas a chance to keep the chains moving. However, this is a Raiders team that have been pretty poor for most of the season and who were beaten by 12 points when facing the Chargers in Los Angeles.

This will also be seen as a chance for the Chargers to build some rhythm and that should mean a few more carries for JK Dobbins who only returned to action in Week 17. He has had a bit more time than the usual work week to get himself ready, which will help, and Dobbins can certainly give Los Angeles a threat on the ground against this struggling Raiders Defensive Line.

Justin Herbert has been given time at Quarter Back and he should be given time by the Offensive Line to find some of the playmakers down the field.

This is an opportunity for Justin Herbert to keep things ticking along against a Raiders Secondary that have been worn down through the course of the regular season, even if they have played pretty well against the last two opponents. However, holding Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler down is one thing and containing Justin Herbert is another and this looks like a chance for the Chargers to back up the win over the Patriots with another win and cover of a line that is set at a similar mark as it was in Week 17.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: No one will have been surprised to hear that Sunday Night Football will conclude the regular season with the Week 18 game between the Detroit Lions (14-2) and Minnesota Vikings (14-2).

The situation has led to plenty of people talking about whether the NFL Playoffs need to be Seeded more effectively considering a team with fourteen wins is going to enter the Wild Card Round having to travel and as the Number 5 Seed.

Both the Lions and Vikings have so much to earn this week, but slipping down to Number 5 will make things much tougher when it comes to positioning a way into the Super Bowl.

The NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the NFC is going to be handed to the winning team, which means a Bye Week through to the Divisional Round and an opportunity to host the Playoffs through to the Super Bowl and, perhaps even more importantly, earning plenty of rest and recuperation time.

For the losing team it will mean a road game either in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay or Atlanta and even winning that game would likely mean having to travel to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round if Seeding is played out.

With that in mind, both Dan Campbell and Kevin O'Connell are going to be preparing their team to put in one big effort to secure the top Seed in the Conference.

Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings have been the surprising team of the season and they have found a way to win games even when in tough positions within games. They have maintained momentum and the Vikings have continued to surprise, while there were just 8 yards and 2 points between Minnesota and the Detroit Lions in one of their two losses this season.

In recent games the Vikings Offensive Line have not been able to get Aaron Jones going, but they could change that against Detroit's Defensive Line that have just had issues clamping down on the run.

The reality is that there will be a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Quarter Back Sam Darnold, but it helps that the Quarter Back is surrounded by some big time Receivers. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary gives Darnold a huge opportunity to put Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in routes that can challenge the Lions down the field and the Minnesota Vikings have to be very confident that they can move the chains with a lot of success.

Planning may be a little bit different for the Detroit Lions when they have the ball and they will want to lean on their big Offensive Line and not shy away from moving the ball on the ground. David Montgomery is set to miss out again, but Jahmyr Gibbs is more than capable of holding down the fort and continues to be a big threat coming out of the backfield.

Keeping Jared Goff in front of the chains is important to just ensure he is given enough time to find his own Receiving playmakers and the Lions have shown they have the Offensive power to overcome Defensive problems. The Quarter Back will be challenged by an improving Minnesota Secondary, but Goff will play with a lot of confidence after helping Detroit fight back in their win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

There is so much to like about this game and the winning team may have the momentum to take into the Playoff that leads to an appearance in the Super Bowl.

Taking the points in what could be a game in which the winning team will be the one that has the ball last looks the right play, especially with the Vikings being as competitive as they have been all season.

Having a full Field Goal start is a huge boost and Minnesota might have enough to keep this one close, even against a very dangerous Lions Offense.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 19.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 6.61 Units

NFL Week 18 Picks 2024 (January 6-7)

We are now into the final week of the regular season and the parity of the NFL can not be any clearer considering the many teams that still have a chance of earning a spot in the post-season.

Seedings are still up for grabs, but only nine of the fourteen PlayOff teams have been confirmed and working out the permutations will be firmly on the mind of the fans and the pundits as games are played on Saturday and Sunday.

Some things have been decided with the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens both locked in as the Number 1 Seeds in their respective Conferences, while the Cleveland Browns know they will be travelling to the AFC South Division winners next week. It does mean you need to have an extra look at the plans of teams with nothing to play for, while also acknowledging that spreads are going to be out of sync from what we have been watching as the layers take no chances with those who 'need to win'.

Those teams can be vulnerable to the pressurised environments and so getting through Week 18 for the NFL Picks will be just that much more challenging too.

Injuries have been ramped up this season with key players missing out on the post-season, even when teams have earned those spots, and health is perhaps most important now we are into January and the Super Bowl is five weeks away.

This is not the time of the season to be banged up or losing momentum, but teams have to deal with the way the chips have fallen as we round out the season and prepare for Wild Card Weekend.

After results from Week 17, my current top five look like this:

1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3): crushing the Miami Dolphins secured top Seed in the AFC and the Baltimore Ravens have to believe they are favourites to reach the Super Bowl knowing two home wins will do the job.

2) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): they bounced back from a rough home loss on Christmas Day and other results secured the top Seed in the NFC for the 49ers.

3) Dallas Cowboys (11-5): the win was extremely fortunate over the Lions last week, but the Cowboys did win and will secure the Number 2 Seed in the NFC by knocking off Washington.

4) Buffalo Bills (10-6): only the Ravens have a longer winning run than the Buffalo Bills who will be vulnerable if they were to lose on Sunday. However, a win for the Bills secures the Number 2 Seed in the AFC.

5) Cleveland Browns (11-5): perhaps a controversial choice, but the Browns join the Bills in winning four in a row. Unlike Buffalo, Cleveland know they are playing on Wild Card Weekend no matter what and they have a Quarter Back in Joe Flacco who looks to be getting hot, much as he did when leading Baltimore to a Super Bowl win.

Next week the idea is to rank the teams that make the post-season, but it is very difficult to look beyond the top two as the most likely winners of the Super Bowl.

The Bills do look really dangerous in the AFC, but finding a team that may have the confidence to head into San Francisco and beat them before the Super Bowl is tougher. Yes, Baltimore did that on Christmas Day, but picking a team from the NFC to replicate that effort is not going to be easy and especially not after having the extra PlayOff Round to negotiate.

It has been a pretty good season for the NFL Picks, but there are still some tough weeks to negotiate between now and the Super Bowl.

Week 18 can be hazardous and it is very much one in which you need to make sure you are on top about starting news more than most.

Two games are set for Saturday, with potentially huge PlayOff implications, before a very busy Sunday to round off the season.

The AFC East Division decider has been flexed into Sunday Night Football and Picks from the games scheduled will be added to this thread.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Head Coach Mike Tomlin has already maintained a proud record of never having a losing season leading the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) thanks to back to back wins. Those have kept the Steelers alive when it comes to trying to secure a return to the PlayOffs having missed out last season, but Pittsburgh know they are not in control of their own destiny.

Losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots will really haunt this fanbase and the players if the Steelers are not able to find a way into the post-season, but all they can focus on is winning this game.

It is pretty simple for Pittsburgh, who play on Saturday, although against big rivals the Baltimore Ravens (13-3).

The Steelers need to win and either need the Jacksonville Jaguars OR Buffalo Bills to lose on Sunday, but a loss will end Pittsburgh's hopes of joining AFC North rivals Baltimore and Cleveland in the PlayOffs. They may be catching the Ravens at a good time with Baltimore having secured the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and already announcing that Lamar Jackson will not be starting this game.

Instead the ball will be given to Tyler Huntley as the Ravens will also likely to decide to rest any key starters that may be carrying any kind of injury concern. This did not work out very well for Baltimore in the 2019 season when they rested players in Week 18 and ultimately were upset in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs as the top Seed, but John Harbaugh believes history is not going to repeat and he will do what is best for this set of players before hosting a PlayOff game in a couple of weeks time.

That does mean a significant rest period for the starters, but the Ravens are happy with the choices being made and they remain the favourites to come out of the AFC gauntlet and take their place in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.

It also will not matter to Mike Tomlin or the Pittsburgh Steelers who know how motivated the Baltimore backup players are likely to be against a rival. The fact the Raven are at home means the fans will be expecting the backups to also perform at a level befitting a Baltimore player and so there will be some pressure on the Ravens to make sure they make things as difficult as possible for Pittsburgh.

It is a tough ask, mainly because the Steelers have gotten the better of a full strength Baltimore team more often than not in recent seasons. The Steelers already hold a win over the Ravens in 2023, and that means Pittsburgh have won six of the last seven games between these AFC North rivals.

All that matters is winning again and the Steelers are likely going to lean on the Defensive unit to make the big plays against a backup Quarter Back and likely a makeshift Receiving corps around Tyler Huntley.

While not Lamar Jackson, and who is, Tyler Huntley is able to move and make some plays with his legs, and it will be just as important to the backup as it would be to the starter to make sure Baltimore establish the run. They will have a chance to do that against this Pittsburgh Defensive Line and it will make life that much more comfortable for the Quarter Back.

Moving into third and manageable spots is so important for any team and especially when you are playing your backup players.

There are areas for Tyler Huntley to exploit in the Pittsburgh Secondary, while being in front of the chains will just slow the Steelers pass rush so this is not a game in which Pittsburgh can expect to just come out and dominate. Being without Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr will be a problem for the Ravens, but Tyler Huntley can at least give his team an opportunity to win this game.

Ultimately it could come down to how many of the Baltimore Defensive starters are given a chance to play the game- most headlines will focus on the Offensive players being sat down, but the Ravens are strong on the other side of the ball too and the will feel they can contain Mason Rudolph, who has moved from the third string Quarter Back past both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubiskey to start.

Mason Rudolph has clearly given the Steelers something of a spark and led the team to back to back wins as the underdog, although the expectations are different as a big road favourite. The Quarter Back has to be hoping that Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris can have big games on the ground against the 'weakness' of this Baltimore Defensive unit.

Running the ball has been possible against the Ravens, and that should give Mason Rudolph a chance to lead the win on the road. He will have an opportunity to throw into this Secondary with some confidence if Pittsburgh keep Rudolph in front of the chains, although the key will be to make sure the Quarter Back avoids mistakes against a turnover-creating team.

The expectation is that the Steelers may do enough to win, but covering the spread as a road favourite may be difficult in what is historically a rivalry that produces tight games. It is perhaps no surprise that the underdog is 23-5-3 against the spread when the Ravens and Steelers have met under their current Head Coaches, including the Steelers winning outright as the underdog earlier in the season.

John Harbaugh really knows how to get the best out of his team when they are set as the underdog and the Ravens have a tremendous 23-5-2 record against the spread when set as the dog since 2017. That becomes 5-1-1 against the spread at home and Tyler Huntley may be able to make enough plays to keep this one close enough to make the points count.

The backup Quarter Back has a decent 6-3 record against the spread in his previous starts, but Mason Rudolph has improved to 9-3 against the spread in his own twelve starts for the Steelers. However, the change from being an underdog to a favourite will add some pressure and Baltimore can keep this close and perhaps even eliminate their AFC North rivals from post-season contention.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: There is still a chance that the winner of this very important AFC South game in a Saturday primetime spot will be hosting a PlayOff Wild Card game next week. However, that will depend on the Tennessee Titans upsetting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, so the only focus for the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) and Houston Texans (9-7) is earning a victory.

Win and they will be going to the PlayOffs even if Jacksonville are able to win on th road on Sunday.

Lose and that team will be thinking about some missed opportunities down the stretch.

There are similarities between the Colts and Texans in 2023- both started with rookie Quarter Backs and were expected to use the season as one of transition.

Instead the Houston Texans have been propelled by the strong play out of CJ Stroud, while the Indianapolis Colts lost Anthony Richardson for the season very early on, but have rallied behind backup Gardner Minshew who has plenty of NFL starting experience.

The two teams both won in Week 17, but have lost two of their last four games and the fans will feel an opportunity could have been blown to have already wrapped up the Division as the Jaguars were sliding.

None of the players will be thinking about anything but producing their best on Saturday and making sure the season does not end right now.

Gardner Minshew is likely going to be a key part of the outcome as far as the Indianapolis Colts go and the Quarter Back has to make sure he brings his error-free Football to the Stadium. A much improved Texans team on both sides of the ball are a genuine threat, and the pressure is ramped up by the fact the Houston Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run as effectively as they have all season.

The Colts do have Jonathan Taylor at Running Back and he is very capable, but this is a Texans Defensive Line that has been stout up front and who will be looking to pressurise Gardner Minshew into throwing from third and relatively long spots on the field. Houston are capable of limiting Taylor and that will also allow them to continue to pin back their ears and try and rattle a veteran Quarter Back through the pass rush.

Even with injuries to some of their key rushers, Houston have continued to earn plenty of pressure in the backfield and the Indianapolis Offensive Line have not really been able to stand up to scrutiny. You have to expect to see more of the same on Saturday and the Texans should be able to get into Gardner Minshew's face and see if they can force the Quarter Back to rush his throws and make mistakes.

The pressure from the pass rushers have certainly helped this Houston Secondary, who have also been turning the ball over, and the Texans will feel they can stall enough drives to give CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit every chance of securing a road win.

Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and the entire Houston organisation have come on leaps and bounds since the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at home. CJ Stroud showed up in that game, but the Texans were beaten despite having more yards on the day and the rookie Quarter Back returned from a concussion with a strong effort to beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

The Texans really struggled to run the ball in the first meeting, but they may have a bit more success in this one even with the Colts Defensive Line looking healthier. In recent games Houston's Offensive Line have been strong when it comes to opening the running lanes and that should make things a bit more comfortable for CJ Stroud as he looks for the biggest win in his very young NFL career.

If they can run the ball, Stroud should be able to move the pocket and give himself a bit more time to allow routes to develop down the field. Injuries to the Receiving corps are a blow, but the likes of Nico Collins are still stepping up for their Quarter Back and Houston may just enjoy a narrow edge in this big game.

An improved Defensive Line should mean Houston put more pressure on Gardner Minshew to have to move the chains, while the Quarter Back is just 6-17 straight up when set as the underdog.

Gardner Minshew did come in as the relief Quarter Back to beat the Houston Texans in Week 2, but he is 0-3 against them when starting and the preparation for this player should really aid Houston.

Backing Houston as the road favourite is not the greatest feeling, but the sharp money seems to be with the Texans and they can use a bit of CJ Stroud magic and an improved Defensive unit to win here and move into the post-season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: There may have been a shoot or two of recovery after Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending injury, but the Minnesota Vikings (7-9) have been unable to find consistency out of their backup Quarter Back options.

It was Jaren Hall who was given an opportunity in Week 17, but a blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers has effectively ended the Vikings hopes of making the PlayOffs. They are not completely dead hopes, but Minnesota need to win here and hope the aforementioned Packers and Seattle Seahawks both lose as favourites and also at least one of Tampa Bay or New Orleans.

It is a long shot.

Even beating the Detroit Lions (11-5) will be tough for the Vikings who lost at home to the new NFC North Division Champions two weeks ago. In Week 17, Detroit were on the wrong end of what looked to be a blown refereeing call that prevented them winning in Dallas and that defeat may ultimately have cost the Lions a chance to earn the Number 2 Seed in the Conference.

Despite that, Head Coach Dan Campbell has already spoken about playing his starters and the Lions would love to go into their home PlayOff game next week having avoided back to back losses. A win could still see them move up a place in the Seedings, but that will depend on both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles losing and so the Lions are simply trying to head into the post-season with a positive momentum behind them.

After a tough Defensive battle in Week 17, Detroit should be able to get a bit more going Offensively in this one with a decent balance expected to be found. The Lions Offensive Line have really cracked open some big running lanes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and both are expected to share the carries in this one after combining for 135 rushing yards in the win over the Vikings in Minnesota.

This is important for the Lions through the remainder of this season and will just ease the pressure on Jared Goff, who made some bad mistakes that ultimately proved costly in the loss to the Cowboys. The Quarter Back has not been as clean with his throws in recent games, but being well supported by the Running Backs will mean Jared Goff is throwing from third and manageable spots and he should be able to expose the Minnesota Secondary.

Jared Goff will likely have time in the pocket and he has enjoyed playing at home, but the Detroit Lions will have to respect the Vikings after the close game played in Minnesota.

The visiting team are turning back to Nick Mullens at Quarter Back, but it was his four Interceptions in the loss to the Lions that saw him benched in favour of Jaren Hall in the eventual defeat to the Packers. Nick Mullens was back in the role in the second half after Hall struggled and the Vikings are likely going to need to lean on him here.

As many teams have found out, including Minnesota, the Detroit Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball and so it is very unlikely that Nick Mullens will be playing in front of the chains. That did not prevent him having a big game statistically two weeks ago, although the multiple Interceptions ended any late comeback bid.

Unsurprisingly Nick Mullens did take a few Sacks in the defeat to the Lions and he is likely going to be under immense pressure in this one with the Vikings unlikely to have gotten a lot going on the ground. However, Mullens will know that there are holes in this Detroit Secondary and he has the kind of Receivers that can break open for some big yards.

Even then, it is going to be tough for the Vikings to stay with the Detroit Lions and more Interceptions would not be a big surprise.

Those can turn the game in favour of the Lions who can be sent into the PlayOffs with a lot of confidence and belief by getting the better of the 2022 NFC North Champions for a second time in three weeks. The superior balance Offensively will make a difference and Detroit have been very good at home all season.

Detroit are 8-4 against the spread bouncing back from a loss over the last couple of seasons, but they have been really good at that this year (4-0).

The Vikings have been a good road underdog to back, but the players may feel the PlayOff hopes were extinguished last week in the blowout loss to Green Bay. While they can throw their way into keeping this close for a while, eventually Nick Mullens may make one or two mistakes and the Lions can pull clear.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: Is it really the end of the Bill Belichick era in Foxboro? While the future Hall of Fame Head Coach has no plans to retire, the New England Patriots (4-12) are seriously considering a change with the team never really recovering after allowing Tom Brady to move on.

Quarter Back issues have really held back the Patriots, while some feel that they are an Offensive unit that have not really modernised. With a high Draft Pick coming up, the New England Patriots may feel the change in the Head Coach will allow someone new to target the Quarter Back to select for the franchise.

Bill Belichick is never going to become embroiled in rumours, but the fans are likely going to arrive at the Stadium looking to give their Head Coach all of his flowers. After all of the successes with the New England Patriots, it is the least Bill Belichick deserves and the players may also be highly motivated to perform for the veteran Head Coach.

They will be hosting the New York Jets (6-10) in a disappointing Week 18 for both teams who would have had such high hopes going into the season.

Out of the two, the Jets were certainly being talked about as a potential Super Bowl Champion with Aaron Rodgers leading the Offense and a very good looking Defensive unit. Instead, the Jets have struggled without Rodgers and likely will be looking for a new backup Quarter Back moving forward now that Zach Wilson has perhaps proven he is not to be trusted.

Trevor Siemian will be getting the call to start at Quarter Back and it looks another tough match up for him after the Jets were blown out by the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. For all their struggles this season, the New England Defensive unit have largely played well and the Defensive Line will feel they can control Breece Hall and force Siemian to beat them through the air.

It would mean throwing from behind a shaky Offensive Line and into a Secondary that will be looking to take advantage of any weak throws. Turning the ball over will be important to the outcome of the game and New England can play their part against Trevor Siemian and company.

The line of scrimmage will be important when the Patriots have the ball too and they may feel they can at least enjoy a bit more success than the Jets. In saying that, it is likely only going to be slightly more success and there will still be a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Bailey Zappe who has taken over from Mac Jones at Quarter Back.

He may also have a little more time in the pocket considering the lacklustre pass rush generated by the New York Jets of late, although Zappe is still going to be contending with a Secondary playing hard and fast.

Bailey Zappe has to avoid the mistakes that could prove costly and especially with the poor weather conditions expected on Sunday.

Those conditions may actually work in favour of New England who may have the superior chance to establish the run and the Patriots can play hard enough for their Head Coach to send Bill Belichick off with a victory, if this is indeed his last game here.

New England and the New York Jets have been terrible teams, but a bit more motivation for the home team may see them come out on top to round off what has been an underwhelming season for both AFC East teams.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South is still up for grabs going into Week 18 of the regular season, although both of these teams will have one eye on how Tampa Bay are getting on at the same time.

Ultimately it is the Buccaneers who control the Division, even after their loss to the New Orleans Saints (8-8) in Week 17- if Tampa Bay win, they win the South.

However, a win for the Carolina Panthers will mean the winner of this game will earn a home PlayOff game next week and that gives the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) a shot. They were blown out by the Chicago Bears last week and the Falcons have little margin for error, while the Saints may still get into the post-season as a Wild Card team as long as they win.

Even if the Buccaneers are up big, Atlanta should not should lack motivation to spoil the season for the New Orleans Saints. Head Coach Arthur Smith is under the pump and may not be signed up for 2024 if the Falcons miss the PlayOffs, but he will certainly give the Atlanta ownership something to think about at 8-9 rather than 7-10, no matter what has happened in Carolina.

Tight losses to the Panthers and Buccaneers down the stretch are potentially costly blows for the Falcons, but they do match up well enough with the Saints to believe they can give the home team all they can handle. The play-calling has to be smarter and there is every chance that Desmond Ridder has to play at Quarter Back, despite the Head Coach clearly hoping Taylor Heinicke will be able to suit up.

Regardless of the Quarter Back situaion, the Falcons have to know they need to lean on Bijan Robinson, who has been picking up big yards per carry. For some reason only known to those inside the Atlanta facilities, Bijan Robinson has not been given a heavy workload as both a runner and a pass-catching Back, especially when you think of how effective he has been.

Running the ball against the Saints is never going to be easy, but the Falcons have to keep pounding the rock and making sure that whoever is at Quarter Back is able to utilise play-action passes, while at other times not needing to allow routes a long time to develop from third and long positions on the field.

There are issues in the New Orleans Secondary, injury included, and Atlanta do have a Receiving corps that will benefit from a more productive Quarter Back going forward. For now, Ridder/Heinicke should be able to make plays down the field to those Receivers as long as they stick with Bijan Robinson running the ball as hard as he has been, and the Falcons should be able to move the ball.

Interceptions have been a huge blight on both Quarter Backs and those could be crucial in this game, but the Falcons do have enough Offensively to score points here, as they did when they beat New Orleans at home.

Avoiding mistakes is particularly important as the Atlanta Defensive unit have continued to play at a high level and will be able to at least make an impact on the game as long as they not asked to defend short fields. The New Orleans Saints have not really been consistent on this side of the ball, while the trade for Derek Carr has not helped the Offensive unit move on as far as would have been hoped.

Head Coach Dennis Allen has to be feeling the pressure, but the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 has given him and his team hope. However, it may have come at a cost with Alvin Kamara still trending in a direction that will see him miss this Week 18 game after being injured against the Buccaneers and that is a major problem for the Saints.

He is not only the starting Running Back, but Kamara has long been a key pass-catching safety blanket and the Saints will take a serious hit without him. The Offensive Line have not really opened big holes for the Running Backs in recent games, but Kamara was averaging 4.5 yards per carry last week and New Orleans may struggle to replicate that against this tough Falcons Defensive Line.

Having to lean on Derek Carr is far from ideal as he has not really built up the kind of chemistry that would have been expected with his Receivers. Chris Olave has had some big games, but he is banged up and this Atlanta Secondary is more than capable of holding their own against the Receiving corps, especially with the pass rush pressure being generated up front.

While they may not get to Carr consistently, the Quarter Back could be forced to throw quickly if the Saints are stuck in third and long and a good tackling day from the Falcons could see them stall drives.

This should mean the Falcons have every chance of earning an upset here and ending the New Orleans season, while hoping Carolina can do Atlanta a favour too.

After the blowout in Chicago, it is hard to trust Atlanta, but New Orleans are not playing that well themselves and losing Alvin Kamara is a potentially huge blow.

The Saints did win last week, but they are 3-10-1 against the spread in the two seasons under Dennis Allen after a winning performance. They are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite and the pressure will be on the Saints who are expected to win by every fan attending the SuperDome wearing 'Black and Gold'.

While Atlanta are not exactly a team you want to rush out and back, especially not with a potentially Lame Duck Head Coach, it has to be said that they do look like they potentially match up well with New Orleans. Having the hook on the Field Goal would be ideal, but this spread may actually shrink if Kamara is officially ruled out so taking the points is the play.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: A controversial win on Saturday coupled with a Philadelphia Eagles collapse on New Year's Eve has pushed the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) to the top of the NFC East.

A Division that has not had a repeat winner in almost twenty years may see that run extended another season as long as Dallas can win this game. They will also secure the Number 2 Seed in the NFC and that will mean having an opportunity to host potentially two PlayOff games in a Stadium where the Cowboys won all eight regular season games.

Excitement has to be building that Dallas can put together a deep PlayOff run and it is important to Head Coach Mike McCarthy, who has been put on the hot seat by Jerry Jones earlier in the season. The owner and the fans expect this team to be good enough to reach the NFC Championship Game and so the Cowboys can ill-afford a slip up in Week 18, one that could see them fall as low as Number 5 in the NFC Seedings.

Focusing fully on the Washington Commanders (4-12) is important, and that should not be an issue considering Dallas were beaten in this Stadium in Week 18 last season. This time the starters are all likely going to be playing significant minutes and the Commanders have had a miserable end to the season.

Spoiling the plans of the Cowboys will provide motivation, but lots of changes are expected in Washington in the off-season and most expect Head Coach Ron Rivera to be let go as soon as Monday. However, Washington have lost seven in a row and they have suffered multiple losses by over 14 points in that time.

Sam Howell will once again be given an opportunity to start at Quarter Back, but the Commanders are in line for a high NFL Draft Pick and a new Head Coach may want to pick his own QB to go forward. The current incumbent will be looking to impress, but Howell has struggled behind this Offensive Line and this looks a tough match up for him.

His numbers were not all that bad on Thanksgiving Day when Sam Howell and the Commanders were blown out by the Dallas Cowboys, but that was largely down to the blowout game state. He may have had 300 passing yards, but Howell did not throw a Touchdown, but had an Interception in the 35 point defeat.

The Commanders would love to lean on Brian Robinson who had 44 yards on nine carries last week against the 49ers, but the Dallas Defensive Line could be receiving a big boost. They have struggled to stop the run without Jonathan Hankins, but he is expected to play this week and Dallas may be able to contain Robinson and really force this game to be played on Sam Howell's shoulders.

In recent games, the Cowboys pass rush may not have gotten home as much as they would have liked, but they were disruptive again last week. With a lead, the Cowboys can really get after Sam Howell and they Sacked this Quarter Back four times in the Thanksgiving Day win.

Putting Sam Howell under pressure could allow the Defensive Backs to step into a turnover or two and the Dallas Cowboys can head into the post-season with some real momentum.

The expectation is that the Defensive unit will play their part and this looks a good opportunity for the Dallas Offense to show out too. They have not been as efficient on the road as they have been at home, but the Cowboys Offensive Line should be able to bully this Washington Defensive Line missing Jonathan Allen and that should mean Tony Pollard is able to have one of his better outings in recent games.

The struggles have been against solid Defensive Lines like Miami and Detroit, but the Commanders are banged up and not being able to clamp down on the run. We should see Pollard getting the team moving and that only makes Dak Prescott and the passing game that much more dangerous.

Since trading away key pass rushers, Washington have not really been able to rattle Quarter Backs, while the inability to stop the run means those players do not have to hold onto the ball nearly as long as the rushers would hope. Dak Prescott is going to be facing a Washington Secondary that could be without key Backs and he should have time to locate his Receivers down the field.

Dallas are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home, but they have lived up to expectations and are 11-4 against the spread as a road favourite since 2021. The Commanders are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog in 2023 and even the motivation of trying to spoil the Dallas end of the season may not be enough to remain competitive.

Injuries at all levels on the Defensive unit will make it tough to stop the Cowboys and the weather conditions look to be trending in a good direction for passers on Sunday. The Cowboys did lose here last season, but have won four of their last five against Washington and three of those wins have been by at least 15 point margins.

Covering may need a late stop, but the Cowboys can do that and roll into Wild Card Weekend as one of the hosts of a PlayOff game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Bad losses will always sting that much more as the regular season winds down and the Seattle Seahawks (8-8) know they suffered one of those when going down to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. It means they are no longer in control of their own destiny having seen a two game winning run snapped and the Seahawks have to win and hope the Green Bay Packers are not able to do the same.

Worrying about what is going on in Green Bay would be a mistake though and the Seahawks need to focus on this Divisional rival.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-12) fought back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on the road last week and there will be a motivation to end this season on a high. The win means they cannot finish with the top Pick in the NFL Draft, but the Cardinals players will not be concerning themselves about that.

Instead they need to show that they can be a part of any rebuild that is taking place in Arizona and there will be questions to answer about Kyler Murray's suitability to be franchise Quarter Back going forward. He was instrumental in the win over the Eagles in Week 17, but Kyler Murray will be looking to hand the ball over to James Connor and allow the Offensive Line to continue paving the road.

In recent games the Cardinals Offensive Line have really bullied teams up front and allowed Connor and company to rack up some huge yards on the ground. They should be able to pick up from where the Steelers left off in Week 17 and continue to crush the Seattle Seahawks on the ground, which in turn keeps Kyler Murray in a strong position on the field to make his plays.

However, it has not been all positive and light for the Cardinals who have lost DJ Humphries for the season- the Left Tackle's absence could be potentially huge when it comes to sustaining drives. While the expectation is that the Cardinals will continue to run the ball efficiently, the Seahawks could take advantage of that pressure when Kyler Murray has to throw the ball.

The Secondary will feel they can step up for the team and the Seahawks could be tough to peg back if they can get into a lead, but Pete Carroll will know that his team needs to find a way to slow down Connor and the run.

If they can do that, Seattle should have the balance Offensively to beat this Divisional rival for a fifth time in a row.

Kenneth Walker III looks to be trending in a positive direction, but Seattle's Offensive Line could be down a couple of starters, which is a blow. A fully healthy Line would expect to dominate the line of scrimmage, but even the backups may have some success establishing the run against this Cardinals Defensive Line that has looked worn.

Keeping Geno Smith in third and manageable is the key for the Seahawks- the Quarter Back has the Receivers that can make big plays for him, but not needing to hold the ball for too long should mean Smith is able to dissect this Secondary rather than scrambling from pressure to allow routes to develop.

Arizona have struggled to generate much of a pass rush of late though and this does look a good chance for the Seahawks to earn the victory and then do some scoreboard watching to see if they can make the post-season.

The Cardinals had won three games before Week 17 and followed up by going 1-2 against the spread in the next game, while you cannot ignore the dominance of Seattle of this series in the last couple of years.

Seattle are also 5-2 against the spread playing off a loss in 2023, while they are 1-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite. Having the line below the key number 3 would be ideal, but it may mean one or two of the injured Offensive Linemen are available if that moves upwards, which is only a positive for the road team.

Arizona have not covered in any of the five Divisional games played this season and the Seahawks can do just enough to keep PlayOff hopes alive.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Blowing out the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 has put the Green Bay Packers (8-8) destiny in their own hands. Beating the Chicago Bears (7-9) will mean the Packers return to the PlayOffs twelve months after Aaron Rodgers and company were beaten by an eliminated NFC North rival in Week 18.

They have to be careful- last year the progressing Lions upset the Packers and this year they are taking on the Chicago Bears (7-9) who have won five of their last seven games. Defeats to the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns in that time came by very narrow margins and shows how well the Bears have been playing as the Head Coach and Quarter Back look to show they are worth keeping around.

It is a big moment for the Bears who are going to have the Number 1 Draft Pick again- they have to make a real decision on where they stand with Justin Fields. The Quarter Back has flashed enough to suggest he could be something very good in the NFL with a bit more support around him, but Justin Fields will want to show a bit more of that on the game tape in Week 18 having already poked the home fans in the lead up to this one.

Justin Fields will be a key part of the outcome of this game, but it may be the legs rather than the arm where is most effective.

The Bears Offensive Line have really grown into the season and they have been helping the team pound the rock effectively, while Fields is capable of getting out of the pocket and scrambling down the field. This is going to cause some problems for the Green Bay Packers who have had issues shutting down the run for a number of years now and so Chicago will be looking to control the clock and frustrate those in the stands.

Simply running the ball over and over will not be enough, but Justin Fields and the Chicago Offensive unit are that much more effective when they are playing in front of the chains. This also opens up the play-action early in Downs and Justin Fields will know there are one or two holes in the Packers Secondary, even with a returning Jaire Alexander, and the Bears should have success moving the ball and giving Green Bay something to think about.

They could do even more against a Packers team that 'must win'.

It is a new situation for many in this team, the youngest in the NFL, and Jordan Love could be without Christian Watson again. The Wide Receiver looked to be trending towards a return, but he missed practice on Friday and this is a blow for the Green Bay Packers young Quarter Back.

Jordan Love did lead the Packers to a very big road win over Chicago this season, but he will have to acknowledge that he is facing a much better Defensive unit. In each passing week, Chicago have really elevated their play and it has been a contributory factor to the strong run to end the season.

Aaron Jones is back, but he may not find a lot of running room against this Chicago Defensive Line. Instead he may be more of a factor as pass-catcher coming out of the backfield, The Packers will need to keep the Bears honest though and Jones is more than capable of finding those creases up front as he looks to keep Green Bay in front of the chains in this big game.

Doing so makes things more comfortable for Jordan Love, who will have room to attack in the Chicago Secondary as long as he continues to get the protection from the Offensive Line that he has enjoyed of late. Having Christian Watson back would have been a huge boost, but Love has enjoyed success with the Receivers that have been available and Green Bay should have a good day Offensively too.

However, there is pressure on the home team and the Bears have nothing to lose.

This is a factor that could stifle an inexperienced team and the Packers are favourites, a situation that has produced a 1-3 record against the spread in 2023.

With an improving Chicago team coming to town, it might be another outing where the Packers struggle to meet expectations and a 'stronger' team fell short twelve months ago against a surging NFC North rival.

Having the hook on the key number would have been brilliant, but Chicago can still make the points count against the hosts who are 'expected' to make the PlayOffs.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 1 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)