NFL Week 18 Picks 2025 (Saturday 4th January-Sunday 5th January)

Remarkably we have moved into the final week of the NFL regular season with seventeen weeks already in the books and with one more left to go.

Fourteen places are up for grabs in the NFL Playoffs when the season begins and twelve of those have already been secured as we move into Week 18.

Seeding is still up for grabs, most notably the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will be decided on Sunday Night Football, while the AFC North Division will be decided on Saturday with both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers playing in back to back games.

The Wild Card Round of the Playoffs is set to be played across next weekend and so it is no surprise that some of the teams that have secured their place in the post-season will choose to shut down starters. That does mean Saquon Barkley is not going to be given the time to snap the regular season record for rushing yards, but the Philadelphia Eagles Running Back is unlikely to be disappointed if it means winning a Super Bowl.

Decisions that are going to be made by the Head Coaches in terms of starters makes the week a little harder to call so you just have to be that much more careful with the selections being made.

The NFL Picks for the 2024 season had been in good shape through the first half of the regular season, but Week 9 through to Week 16 had been much tougher and undone a lot of the good work that had been put together.

Despite the poor run, the NFL Picks have produced a positive number for the regular season going into Week 17.

We had some luck with the Cincinnati Bengals pick, but misfortune when backing the Atlanta Falcons to cover against the Washington Commanders to even those games out and overall the 7-3 record from the ten Picks made means the regular season has been a good one.

Being careful through Week 18 is the key before heading into the Playoffs and two solid weeks out of three have just restored some lost momentum from the second half of the regular season.

Picks from the Week 18 games will be added to this thread and can be read below.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: One more win will secure the AFC North Division for the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) and that would mean earning the Number 3 Seed in the Playoff and a home game next week. Three blowout wins in a row have put the Ravens in a strong position and they are a massive favourite to beat the Cleveland Browns (3-13).

The Browns have had a miserable season all in all and they will be looking forward to drawing a line under the campaign and try and go again in 2025. There is every chance they could still secure the Number 1 Draft Pick with a loss and some help on Sunday and even the desire to play spoiler for a rival may not be as high considering the Ravens have already secured a Playoff spot.

Instead the motivation might be on the side of the home team considering they were beaten in Cleveland and have lost three of their last four games against the Browns.

The exception in that little run is a blowout win for Baltimore and they may have the capabilities of crushing this Browns team that may be down to a fourth choice Quarter Back.

For now it sounds like Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be given the start, but Cleveland are toying with the idea of Bailey Zappe at Quarter Back instead after the poor play of DTR. Jameis Winston is going to be the emergency Quarter Back, but neither Thompson-Robinson nor Zappe are going to give the Ravens too much to worry about.

The Browns would love to establish the run to set things up, but that looks a much tougher task against the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line and especially with so little to play for. Jerome Ford might not even suit up and it is asking a lot of either of the two expected starting Quarter Backs to exploit this Ravens Secondary if playing from third and long spots on the field.

It would mean facing the Baltimore pass rush, which has been getting after the Quarter Back, and errant throws will be picked off by the Defensive Backs who have benefited from the pressure being produced up front.

Lamar Jackson has just set a new rushing record for Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he will be well aware of the challenges that the Cleveland Browns have given to him in the past. However, between Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens should be able to establish the run, even against this tough Browns Defensive Line, and that should just open things up for the pass.

The Ravens have found a decent balance with their Offensive unit and Lamar Jackson has proved he can run and throw the ball effectively. The big test will be taking that into the Playoff and really giving Baltimore the level needed to have a deep run, but this is a final regular season game and the Quarter Back should have spaces to exploit.

Having a player like Derrick Henry behind him means the Ravens are able to negate much of the pass rush and the Ravens Offensive Line should give Lamar Jackson time to make his plays down the field.

Of course this is a huge spread and it will be very difficult for the home team to overcome the mark, although the feeling is that as little as 24 points could be enough for Baltimore.

The Browns might not have the same motivation to play spoiler as if this game was played a couple of weeks ago and Baltimore have won three in a row by huge margins.

After losing in Cleveland, Baltimore will be that much more focused and that can help them secure the AFC North behind a big win- a couple of turnovers may just give them those extra possessions to beat a Cleveland team thinking ahead rather than on this final regular season game.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Two AFC North rivals have plenty to play for this weekend and that is even if the Baltimore Ravens have won the Division before kickoff.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) can only win the Division if the Ravens are upset by the Cleveland Browns in the early Saturday kickoff, although that is very unlikely considering the huge favourite the Ravens are.

Of course that will mean there are question marks about whether the Steelers would play their starters with a Playoff spot already secured if they have nothing more than Seeding to play for. At the moment the Steelers are in control of the Number 5 Seed which would mean a road game at the Houston Texans rather than falling into Number 6 and having to face the Baltimore Ravens again.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin has indicated that he would not consider resting starters even if the Steelers are unable to win the Division, although that mindset could potentially change. The Steelers have lost three in a row to lose control of the AFC North and there is a feeling that they would love to have more positive momentum before playing their first Playoff Game next week.

Russell Wilson has enjoyed a good season at Quarter Back and he racked up 414 passing yards in the win over the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) on the road. However, that was the Bengals at the end of a three game losing run and they have just given themselves hope of reaching the post-season having won four in a row since then.

The Steelers should be able to have a positive day Offensively if the starters are in the game with the Offensive Line expected to establish the run, which makes things that much more comfortable for Russell Wilson at Quarter Back. Pittsburgh look healthier and Wilson will feel he can exploit the issues the Bengals have had in the Secondary all season, even if the Offensive Line have just suffered in pass protection.

Interceptions have helped power the Cincinnati run of wins and they will be hoping they can step in front of some of the passes in this one as the Bengals look to finish with a winning record and then scoreboard watch on Sunday.

Joe Burrow and the Offensive unit deserve a lot of credit for keeping Cincinnati alive too having beaten the Denver Broncos to make this a meaningful game for themselves in Week 18.

The Quarter Back is clearly a very good player, but it does help that the Bengals have two top Receiving options and Burrow has made it clear that he hopes that both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still playing here in September 2025. And Cincinnati's Offensive Line have just found some spaces for Chase Brown to exploit on the ground during this winning run, although Brown is not expected to suit up this week.

Pass protection has been a problem for Cincinnati, but Joe Burrow has taken the hits and still gotten up and attacked teams effectively down the field. You have to believe that Joe Burrow is hugely encouraged by the successes teams have had throwing against the Steelers Secondary during their losing run and the belief is that the Cincinnati Bengals can do enough to keep Playoff hopes alive through another day.

The uncertainty of the approach that Pittsburgh will take is a concern, but you have to believe that Mike Tomlin will have his starters out on the field to build rhythm for at least half of this game, even if Baltimore have won.

It could see the Steelers score enough points to at least help combine with the Cincinnati Bengals to cover this total line set, especially if the game is anything like their first meeting. With plenty of throwing likely to be used, especially by the Bengals, this could stretch out the game and both Offensive units may show off their playmakers in a high scoring Week 18 outing.

At the end of the day, it may be the Bengals who have enough motivation and momentum to edge to the win on the road to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17 has meant the Green Bay Packers (11-5) have lost their grip on the Number 6 Seed in the NFC.

They are going to be playing in the Wild Card Round next week, and the Packers will still be looking to finish the season with a strong performance and try and move back above the Washington Commanders. Playing at the Los Angeles Rams rather than the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round has to be motivation enough for the Packers who have fallen to the best teams they have faced this season.

Fortunately for Green Bay, this is not one of the best teams and the Chicago Bears (4-12) are about to enter an uncertain off-season with a new Head Coach to be appointed. The early signs were positive for the Bears, but things began to go wrong when allowing the aforementioned Commanders beat them on a Hail Mary and that sparked a ten game losing run.

For much of that run, the Bears had been competitive, but they haven't even been that over the last four weeks and even the additional time to prepare to face a Divisional rival is unlikely to have helped turn the page.

The Bears have been struggling mightily on the Offensive side of the ball with the team having problems establishing the run, which has left Caleb Williams in a tough spot behind an under fire Offensive Line. There has simply not been a lot of protection offered to the rookie Quarter Back, and Williams must be looking forward to the end of the season even more so than many of his team-mates.

Caleb Williams does have some Receivers who can make plays for him, but the Bears may be behind the chains against this Packers Defensive Line and that is only going to see the pocket collapse around the Quarter Back. This has proven to make it tough for consistent drives to be maintained, while Williams will have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Green Bay Packers have manufactured.

Giving Jordan Love and the Offensive unit extra possessions could be key to covering a big spread and the Green Bay Quarter Back is looking for a confidence boosting performance in the final game of the regular season. Following the loss to the Vikings, Jordan Love made it clear he needs to be a bit better to get Green Bay over the line against the stronger teams they are set to face in the NFL Playoffs.

He can lean on the Packers Offensive Line much more than Caleb Williams can do with the Bears unit and Josh Jacobs can keep Green Bay in third and manageable spots against a worn down Chicago Defensive Line.

With plenty of time being afforded to him, Jordan Love should find the spaces to exploit in the Chicago Secondary and the Packers can certainly move into the Wild Card Round behind a big win.

The Bears should have beaten Green Bay when hosting them at Soldier Field in November, but the defeat has maintained the Packers dominance of this rivalry. Before that narrow win, the Packers had also cleared the lines the layers had set for them against the Bears and they can get back to doing what they do best against Chicago with the likelihood that the starters will stay in the game for the full game.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: It always surprises to see Head Coaches mismanage the time at the end of games as often as they do and Raheem Morris admitted his failure to use one of two Time Outs left at the end of the Fourth Quarter in Week 17 might have proved costly for his team. The Atlanta Falcons (8-8) wasted too much time and ended up having to take a long Field Goal, which came up short, and ultimately were then beaten in Overtime by the Washington Commanders.

It is a devastating defeat that means the Falcons have lost control of their own destiny- if they had won in Week 17, Atlanta would have been one win away from securing the NFC South Division and earning the Number 4 Seed in the Playoff, but now they need to win and hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are upset when playing New Orleans at the same time.

Making the Playoffs is a long shot right now, but the Falcons will have to focus and make sure they do their end of the bargain by beating the Carolina Panthers (4-12) who have lost five of their last six games, including a 34 point blowout at the hands of the Buccaneers in Week 17.

Players like Chuba Hubbard have been shut down for the season and the Panthers are another team who will have a relatively high Draft Pick with big decisions to make.

Bryce Young looks to have done enough to earn another shot as the starting Quarter Back and he will be hoping that someone can step up and fill Hubbard's shoes more effectively than they did last week. The Quarter Back did not play badly against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Panthers were unable to establish the run and the one-dimensional Offensive plan was pretty easy for the Buccaneers to deal with.

At least this week the Panthers Offensive Line are facing an Atlanta team that have allowed plenty of yards to be picked up on the ground and that should be a huge boost for Young.

There is little doubt that Bryce Young will need that help considering the improved play of the Falcons Secondary in the second half of the season. The hope is that Carolina can establish the run and sustain drives with the Quarter Back asked to complete third and manageable spots on the field.

However, any time the Panthers are behind the chains it becomes much tougher for Bryce Young operating behind an Offensive Line that has not been nearly as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking. In recent games, Atlanta have found a very positive pass rush and that could be key to stalling drives and giving the Offensive unit a chance to win this game for the home team.

Michael Penix Jr has had little starting time for the Atlanta Falcons, but has shown enough to have the fans believing that the page being turned from Kirk Cousins to the rookie came too late and ultimately has cost the Falcons a spot in the post-season. He began poorly last week on the road at Washington, but Penix Jr recovered really well and was not helped by his Head Coach in his bid to win both of the starts made for Atlanta.

He should be able to lean on Bijan Robinson and the Offensive Line in this one to make things all the more comfortable and the Falcons are expected to have the qualities needed to rip open some big gains on the ground. This is going to make life comfortable for the rookie Quarter Back and Michael Penix Jr is expected to have the time to find his playmakers down the field.

Both teams should have success moving the ball in this final regular season game, but Atlanta's balanced Offensive unit should have the edge.

Bryce Young has played well since being restored to the starting lineup, but this Falcons Secondary is playing with more confidence and the pass rush might just force a couple of good field positions for Michael Penix Jr and the rest of the Offensive unit. The Panthers showed in Week 17 that their desire to really compete might just have slackened a touch and Penix Jr can have a very strong game before the team begins scoreboard watching and hoping for an upset in Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There must have been a feeling that the disappointing Week 16 loss at the Dallas Cowboys might have been the fatal blow to the Playoff hopes, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) have been given a second opportunity to secure the NFC South Division.

No one needs to scoreboard watch with their destiny back under their own control and Tampa Bay only need to beat this Divisional rival in Week 18 to earn the Number 4 Seed in the NFC.

Five wins in six games have given the Buccaneers every opportunity to win the Division and they blew out the Carolina Panthers to bounce back from the disappointment of losing in Dallas. Being at home and facing an eliminated opponent means all of the cards are in Tampa Bay's favour and they are set as a very big favourite.

That is no surprise against the New Orleans Saints (5-11) who have been hit hard by injury and who have suffered three defeats in a row with the last two being blow out losses.

The awful terrorist attack on New Year's Day in New Orleans will have rallied the Saints together and it will give them motivation to end this season and give their community something to smile about. Of course the Saints players would have been concerned about any family members or team members that had headed into New Orleans to celebrate the New Year and it will have been an emotional time for the team before heading to Tampa Bay.

Spencer Rattler is expected to earn another start at Quarter Back for the New Orleans Saints, but this is going to be a tough test for him without some key Saints playmakers. Alvin Kamara is questionable to play, but even with the Running Back healthy and ready to go, it would have been tough for the New Orleans Saints to establish the run against this Buccaneers Defensive Line playing at a very high level.

Instead all of the pressure will be on Rattler and the rookie Quarter Back is going to be put under duress by this Tampa Bay pass rush. This pressure up front has helped the Tampa Bay Secondary produce some big games of late, while Spencer Rattler has made rookie mistakes when trying to force passes down the field.

Extra possessions would make things all the more comfortable for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers who have overcome losing some key players to maintain momentum and look to have another Playoff run.

Earning the Number 4 Seed will mean a meeting with either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round, but Tampa Bay know the Playoffs is a 'new season' for teams and the Buccaneers have to be confident of heading into that game with a lot of momentum behind them.

Bucky Irving has taken over as the lead Running Back and he has to be excited about playing behind this Buccaneers Offensive Line that has been able to bully teams up front. The home team are expected to rack up some serious yards on the ground and Bucky Irving also represents a threat coming out of the backfield to give Baker Mayfield another option in the passing game.

Being in front of the chains should mean Baker Mayfield has that bit more time to attack this New Orleans Secondary and the veteran has proven himself to be very comfortable in the system being run. Mike Evans continues to play at a really high level and the Buccaneers should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air as they take the game to New Orleans.

Make no mistake, this is a huge spread and a backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but Tampa Bay have been in really good form and crushed the Carolina Panthers by 34 points last week. Backing up those big wins is tough, but prior to the defeat to Dallas, Tampa Bay had won four games in a row by margins of 23, 3, 15 and 23 points and they have all of the momentum to blowout a Saints team that have been outscored by 50 points in their last three losses.

Earlier this season, the Buccaneers racked up just shy of 600 Offensive yards in beating New Orleans by 24 points on the road and they should have all of the momentum to win this game comfortably in Week 18 too.

There is an outside chance that the Buccaneers could actually improve Seeding with a win too, but the only real focus has to be winning to ensure Playoff Football is played next weekend.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The NFC West Division crown has already been secured by the Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and they are either going to finish with the Number 3 or Number 4 Seed in the Playoff.

With that in mind, Sean McVay has made it clear that he will give some key players a rest before the Wild Card Round is played next weekend and that includes starting Quarter Back Matthew Stafford.

Jimmy Garoppolo is very assured as the backup, but he may be without some of the top Receiving options and the starting Running Back with the mentality already focused on the Wild Card rather than finishing the regular season with another victoy.

The Seattle Seahawks (9-7) still have plenty to play for, even if the season ends in Week 18.

An opportunity to win ten games in a single season would see the team surpass 2023, which is a boost, while there are players that have personal incentives to reach. Head Coach Mike Macdonald has made it clear that his Seahawks team are going to be playing to win, even if finishing with the same record as the Rams would see them miss out on a deep tie-breaker, and the fact that Los Angeles are going in with a host of backups helps.

You cannot really know what to expect from the Los Angeles backups and they are not likely to contain the run, although Geno Smith is going to take to the air to make sure the incentives are reached. The Quarter Back has been under duress behind this Offensive Line, but that should be eased in this final regular season game and Geno Smith should be able to hit his playmakers down the field.

The Seahawks are going to be motivated having lost the first of the regular season meetings in early November, despite being the better team, and the Rams may not be able to sustain Offensive drives in this one.

Improvements made down the stretch makes it tough for the Rams and the second string to have a lot of success and that begins with the challenges to run the ball against this Seattle Defensive Line.

Experience is not a problem for Jimmy Garoppolo, but playing behind the chains is tough and Seattle's Secondary have also shown enough down the stretch to offer the team some positives to take into 2025. The Seahawks can build some pass rush pressure and they may be able to force some errant throws from Garoppolo, which may just give Seattle the edge and the momentum to push through and cover this spread.

Los Angeles have won three in a row in the series, but the Seattle Seahawks might have the motivation to come through with a big road win.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: Jim Harbaugh has guided the Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) back into the Playoff in his first season as the Head Coach and he has made it clear that his starters will be playing even with the Wild Card Round to come next week.

There is an outside chance that the Chargers can improve Seeding with a victory, but they will know where they stand by the time this game kicks off as they need a Pittsburgh defeat on Saturday.

In Week 17 the Chargers crushed the New England Patriots on the road and they are not expected to play at home again this season, so there is a road warrior mentality that Jim Harbaugh will want to harness and this is an opportunity to build momentum.

Of course the Las Vegas Raiders (4-12) will want to try and spoil the plan for a rival from within the AFC West and they have won consecutive games, although that might have been costly for the Raiders and their bid to earn a very high NFL Draft Pick.

The wins have been against Jacksonville and New Orleans and this is a significant upgrade in opponent for the Raiders to beat in their final game of the season.

Las Vegas will be hoping they can establish the run, although it has not been the best of time for this Offensive Line which has worn down. However, there have been spaces to exploit against this Chargers Defensive Line and that may be a positive for Aidan O'Connell at Quarter Back.

He should have some time to find Brock Bowers, who has set a new rookie record for Receiving yards out of the Tight End position, and that should give Las Vegas a chance to keep the chains moving. However, this is a Raiders team that have been pretty poor for most of the season and who were beaten by 12 points when facing the Chargers in Los Angeles.

This will also be seen as a chance for the Chargers to build some rhythm and that should mean a few more carries for JK Dobbins who only returned to action in Week 17. He has had a bit more time than the usual work week to get himself ready, which will help, and Dobbins can certainly give Los Angeles a threat on the ground against this struggling Raiders Defensive Line.

Justin Herbert has been given time at Quarter Back and he should be given time by the Offensive Line to find some of the playmakers down the field.

This is an opportunity for Justin Herbert to keep things ticking along against a Raiders Secondary that have been worn down through the course of the regular season, even if they have played pretty well against the last two opponents. However, holding Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler down is one thing and containing Justin Herbert is another and this looks like a chance for the Chargers to back up the win over the Patriots with another win and cover of a line that is set at a similar mark as it was in Week 17.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: No one will have been surprised to hear that Sunday Night Football will conclude the regular season with the Week 18 game between the Detroit Lions (14-2) and Minnesota Vikings (14-2).

The situation has led to plenty of people talking about whether the NFL Playoffs need to be Seeded more effectively considering a team with fourteen wins is going to enter the Wild Card Round having to travel and as the Number 5 Seed.

Both the Lions and Vikings have so much to earn this week, but slipping down to Number 5 will make things much tougher when it comes to positioning a way into the Super Bowl.

The NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the NFC is going to be handed to the winning team, which means a Bye Week through to the Divisional Round and an opportunity to host the Playoffs through to the Super Bowl and, perhaps even more importantly, earning plenty of rest and recuperation time.

For the losing team it will mean a road game either in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay or Atlanta and even winning that game would likely mean having to travel to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round if Seeding is played out.

With that in mind, both Dan Campbell and Kevin O'Connell are going to be preparing their team to put in one big effort to secure the top Seed in the Conference.

Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings have been the surprising team of the season and they have found a way to win games even when in tough positions within games. They have maintained momentum and the Vikings have continued to surprise, while there were just 8 yards and 2 points between Minnesota and the Detroit Lions in one of their two losses this season.

In recent games the Vikings Offensive Line have not been able to get Aaron Jones going, but they could change that against Detroit's Defensive Line that have just had issues clamping down on the run.

The reality is that there will be a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Quarter Back Sam Darnold, but it helps that the Quarter Back is surrounded by some big time Receivers. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary gives Darnold a huge opportunity to put Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in routes that can challenge the Lions down the field and the Minnesota Vikings have to be very confident that they can move the chains with a lot of success.

Planning may be a little bit different for the Detroit Lions when they have the ball and they will want to lean on their big Offensive Line and not shy away from moving the ball on the ground. David Montgomery is set to miss out again, but Jahmyr Gibbs is more than capable of holding down the fort and continues to be a big threat coming out of the backfield.

Keeping Jared Goff in front of the chains is important to just ensure he is given enough time to find his own Receiving playmakers and the Lions have shown they have the Offensive power to overcome Defensive problems. The Quarter Back will be challenged by an improving Minnesota Secondary, but Goff will play with a lot of confidence after helping Detroit fight back in their win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

There is so much to like about this game and the winning team may have the momentum to take into the Playoff that leads to an appearance in the Super Bowl.

Taking the points in what could be a game in which the winning team will be the one that has the ball last looks the right play, especially with the Vikings being as competitive as they have been all season.

Having a full Field Goal start is a huge boost and Minnesota might have enough to keep this one close, even against a very dangerous Lions Offense.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 19.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 6.61 Units

NFL PlayOffs Wild Card Weekend Picks 2020 (January 4-5)

A lot of people speak about how quickly time seems to move between the NFL kicking off and getting into the PlayOffs and I have to very much agree with those thoughts.

Seventeen weeks of Football are now in the books and we are down to the final twelve teams who are going to be entering a 'new season' as they push for a spot in the Super Bowl and winning the NFL Championship.

There are some really good teams involved in the next few weeks and I am looking forward to all of the potential PlayOff games we are about to see. Like many others, I am stunned to see the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round after they failed to win a game in which they were over 17 point favourites in Week 17 of the season.

It has led to more questions about the Patriots and whether this dynasty is now over, but they are big favourites this weekend and any team with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's experience have to be respected.

Teams like Baltimore, Kansas City and New Orleans look way better equipped to win the Super Bowl, but we will get to see it all played out beginning with this Wild Card Round played over two days.

My personal lean is towards a Kansas City Chiefs versus New Orleans Saints Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens not too far behind. I do think the majority will be behind one of those four teams as far as Super Bowl predictions will go so I am not putting my neck on the line with my own selection of teams, although I will also admit it will be a Super Bowl I can really enjoy without the Patriots involved no matter how the final two shake up from the four teams selected.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Pick: I don't think too many people will be expecting either one of these teams to have a very deep PlayOff run, but a win in the Wild Card Round could be a big boost in the development for one of the Quarter Backs playing. Deshaun Watson is playing in his second PlayOff game on Saturday, while Josh Allen is at this stage for the first time in his career and the two players have shown they are men you can build your franchise around.

Winning a PlayOff game will give the successful Quarter Back a huge boost going into the 2020 season and I also think it will be a boost for the winning team even if they will be significant underdogs in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs regardless of whether that game is in Baltimore or Kansas City.

The Texans and Bills were both beaten in Week 17, but key players were rested in losses to Divisional rivals which meant very little to two teams locked into their Seeding in the AFC. However the Bills almost had a scare when Levi Wallace was banged up before the starters were pulled, although they look to have escaped a serious injury after Wallace returned to practice this week.

He looks to be trending towards playing in this Wild Card Game and that is very important to a strong Buffalo Defensive unit which sets the mood for the team. One of the big strengths of the Houston Offense has to be the depth in the Receiving options so missing a key Corner Back like Wallace would have hurt the Bills and especially after Will Fuller returned to practice for Houston and is almost certainly going to play in this one.

Deshaun Watson is a very good Quarter Back, but he has had one or two issues finding consistency when Fuller is not in the line up. The Wide Receiver stretches things out and makes it easier for Watson to make plays, but this is going to be a tough test for him against the Bills whose Secondary have played very well all season.

The problem for Watson is that even the improvements made to the Offensive Line have not been enough to prevent the protection breaking down when teams begin to rush him. The Texans will find it tough to give Watson a lot of time when he drops back to pass and things won't be helped by what is expected to be a challenging day trying to run the ball against the Buffalo Defensive Line.

If the Bills can clamp down on the run like they have, they should be able to stay in front of the chains and from there I would expect the pass rush to stall a couple of drives and perhaps even lead to a mistake or two from Watson at Quarter Back.

Avoiding mistakes is likely going to be a key part of the team meetings in the week leading up to this PlayOff game for both teams and it is important for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills that they give their Defensive unit the best chance to put the team in a position to win. Josh Allen has been much improved in his second year as Quarter Back of the Bills, but he will know he doesn't need to push himself to make huge plays to give his team the best chance of winning a PlayOff game for the first time in twenty-five years.

Buffalo are a team who want to pound the ball and they will believe they will be able to establish the run in this one. Recent games were not the best for the Bills in terms of the run, but the Houston Defensive Line has struggled up front and Devin Singletary could have a decent outing, while Josh Allen is more than a capable scrambler from the Quarter Back position which will double his threat in this one for the Texans.

There is the boost of having JJ Watt back, although that is going to impact the pass rush rather than the ability to clamp down on the run and I think Buffalo will have a chance to establish the ground game which really opens things up for them Offensively. If they are able to get things going, Josh Allen will be able to turn and attack this Secondary with real success and the Bills look a live underdog here.

JJ Watt's return will give the Texans a boost emotionally as well as helping what has been an inconsistent pass rush, but even that may not be enough. The Bills have proven to be very comfortable playing on the road and Josh Allen has come on leaps and bounds which could see him produce a rare success for a first time PlayOff Quarter Back.

There is a real trend where opposing a Quarter Back making his debut in the PlayOffs is concerned, but I do think Buffalo have the Defensive unit to restrict Houston and give Josh Allen all of the chances he needs to help win the game.

Buffalo are 8-1-2 against the spread in their last eleven games on the road and they are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog. The Texans are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I do think Deshaun Watson can be rattled by the kind of pressure he will face in this one as well as the lack of separation his Receivers might have.

It'll all be on Watson who won't have much support from Carlos Hyde running the ball and I think it may lead to Buffalo winning the turnover battle.

I am a little concerned by the record of first time Quarter Backs playing in the PlayOffs, while Buffalo have not played well against the best teams they have faced. However home favourites of less than 3 points are 1-9 against the spread on Wild Card Weekend since 2000 and I am going to take the points in this opening PlayOff game.


Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots Pick: When 'all' you have to do is beat the Miami Dolphins to secure the Number 2 Seed in the AFC it is not just a disappointment that the New England Patriots have failed to do that in Week 17, but potentially one that costs them a realistic chance of making the Super Bowl. The Patriots were 17.5 point favourites against the Miami Dolphins, but stunningly lost in Foxboro and that means playing in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs for the first time since 2009.

There are plenty of doubters now and that has to be fuelling the New England Patriots although the second half of the season has seen them not really go into the kind of PlayOff mode we have seen in the past. Instead the Patriots have not really found the consistency they would have liked and now have to face a Tennessee Titans team who were playing as well as most down the stretch in the regular season.

It was some benefit for the Titans that they were able to play a Houston team resting key starters in Week 17, but they still had to win on the road and did that very well. This is a far biggest test for the Titans though considering the experience that is in front of them, but Tennessee do have a very strong minded Head Coach in Mike Vrabel and I do think they will be as well prepared for this test as they can be.

The weather was looking like being a big concern for this game with Winter Storm Henry approaching Foxboro, although it sounds like it will be rainy and not snowy when this game kicks off.

So while the main impact of Weather Storm Henry won't be felt, one Henry will be heading to the Stadium and looking to make as much rumbling as possible. Derrick Henry is a huge part of the Tennessee Offense and he is likely to have even more of the ball if the rain makes it difficult to throw down the field.

We have all known how impressive Bill Belichick has been in planning to erase the biggest threat his opponent has on the field, but taking away Henry completely won't be easy. The Titans Offensive Line have been opening some big holes for Henry, while the physical nature of the Running Back means he can wear down Defensive Lines and eventually break a big one down the field.

The Patriots have been pretty good on the Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but Ryan Tannehill has also played well enough when he drops back to throw which gives them the balance to at least keep New England guessing. It would be a surprise if New England don't try and force Tannehill to beat them through the air considering the conditions expected in Foxboro, but Henry will get his numbers.

And I do think Tannehill and the Titans will be encouraged by what Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins did in Week 17. With AJ Brown beginning to show he could be one of the top Receivers in the NFL in the years ahead, Tennessee should be able to move the chains in this PlayOff game and give themselves an opportunity to win.

Much will depend on how Ryan Tannehill handles the pressure of playing in his first ever PlayOff game, while he also has to exorcise some demons in Foxboro having never won here with the Miami Dolphins. Like with the first PlayOff game, the trend against first time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season is not a good one for Tannehill, but Tennessee have been confident since he came into the starting line up and that should mean they can score enough points to potentially earn the upset.

It would be an upset even if Tennessee will be a trendy pick for some, because the New England Patriots are still a team who have shown they can overcome adversity. The long-running Super Bowl successes just can't be ignored and Tom Brady will have spent all week hearing about how the Patriots time is done which will have lit a fire under a player that may be finishing up his personal time here.

No one will dispute Brady's place in the pantheon of NFL history, but the Offensive unit has struggled this season and it is hard to see how much they can turn that around. Like Tennessee, the Patriots are going to try and establish the run and they may have some success doing that through Sony Michel if they pick up from where they left off last week.

Running the ball against the Tennessee Defensive Line is far from easy, but New England's Offensive Line have shown better shape in recent games and so they may have more success than most. In the conditions it is likely going to be the first port of call for the game-planning, although the Titans Secondary has been struggling in recent weeks too and that can't have escaped the attention of the Patriots either.

Unfortunately outside of Julian Edelman, who is banged up, the Patriots don't have the reliable Receivers of years gone by which will make it hard for Tom Brady to have the kind of successes he has enjoyed. The Titans also bring a pass rush which can be disruptive and I do think they are going to have the insight of their Head Coach to make this a close game on Saturday evening.

Tennessee have covered in their last four road games against teams with a winning record, although the trends largely favour New England in this game. The Patriots are a team who bounce back from losses, have been very strong at home and who have a very good record in PlayOff games as the favourite.

However I think the right play is with the road team and the points in what I feel will be a close game in the conditions. I hate opposing New England because they are capable of turning it on and getting things done, but my feeling is that the Tennessee Titans are playing well enough to keep this one close.

If Derrick Henry can get rumbling, this feels like a game that might be settled by a Field Goal margin in Foxboro on Saturday.


Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Any build up to this game is going to feature images and video from the 'Miracle of Minneapolis' two years ago when somehow the New Orleans Saints snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Minnesota Vikings. That was a Case Keenum inspired Vikings team that moved past New Orleans who suffered another heartbreaking PlayOff defeat twelve months ago.

Revenge is going to be on the minds of the fans who travel to the SuperDome on Sunday for this Wild Card Game, but I think Sean Payton will be playing down the significance of that. In Week 17 one inch prevented the Saints from having a Bye into the Divisional Round so the only focus this week is not revenge, but simply winning a PlayOff game against a quality opponent.

New Orleans won't deny there is something for them to prove having lost in the PlayOffs in the manner they have in each of the past two seasons, but Kirk Cousins will heading into the game with the Minnesota Vikings knowing many are expecting the latest implosion from him in a big game environment.

That narrative was added to in Week 16 when Cousins was downright awful against the Green Bay Packers in a game that ended their hopes of winning the NFC North. It came at home on a Monday Night Football and Minnesota have to be concerned about how they have played against fellow PlayOff teams in the regular season.

Granted that doesn't matter once you get into the post-season, while Cousins will also have Dalvin Cook back and hopefully a healthier Adam Thielen to throw to. The absence of Cook has been difficult and one of the premier Running Backs in the NFL is hoping to have a big impact on this game when making his first PlayOff appearance at the end of a season in which he cracked 1000 yards on the ground.

The Saints Defensive Line has just clamped down on runners of late as they have filled some of the gaps left behind by injuries and so it won't be easy for Cook who is unlikely to be fully healthy. However Dalvin Cook has shown he can burst through some small holes to open things up for Kirk Cousins and the key for the Vikings will be to try and control the clock on the ground while also keeping the team in front of the chains.

For much of the season it has worked for the Vikings who haven't asked Kirk Cousins to do too much, but in a potential shoot out with the Saints more may be expected of the Quarter Back. He does have a couple of solid Receivers, although the injury to Adam Thielen has made the passing attack that much easier to defend, while the Saints Secondary has overcome some injuries and continue to play at a high level.

They are helped by the pass rush that can be generated and I do think that is going to be an important part of slowing down the Vikings when they do have the ball. The last thing Minnesota want to do is get down multiple scores and have to move away from the game plan and drop back to throw fifty times to stay with their hosts.

Judging by recent games played by the New Orleans Saints, it is not too far fetched to believe they will be able to score on most possessions. Drew Brees is playing as well as at any time in the last twelve months and the Minnesota Secondary is banged up which leaves them vulnerable to a team who have scored at least 34 points in four games in a row.

Things could become very problematic for the Vikings if they do give away a couple of big runs on the ground as that will just open things up for Brees who has been carving up opponents. Alvin Kamara has played well in the last couple of weeks, but he is also a major threat catching short screen passes and all in all it looks like a game in which New Orleans are going to be able to do what they want Offensively.

Despite the public favouring New Orleans, sharp money has come in on Minnesota to drop the spread, although it is still above the key number 7. I do think the Vikings could potentially sneak a backdoor cover which makes this a dangerous number to lay, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams and New Orleans have plenty of momentum behind them.

Minnesota are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games when set as the underdog, and while the Saints have not been the best home favourite to back, they are a team with plenty of good trends behind them.

Kirk Cousins lost his only other PlayOff start to the Green Bay Packers and I think the Saints will be too potent Offensively for this Quarter Back to keep the Vikings with them. It is a big number without a doubt, but the New Orleans Saints can find the points to earn the cover and get ready for a trip to the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.


Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Since Carson Wentz was Drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles he was named the starter and the team have gone on to two PlayOff runs which includes winning the Super Bowl. However injuries meant Nick Foles led those post-season runs and so, stunningly, this is the first ever PlayOff start for Carson Wentz.

Four wins in a row gave the Philadelphia Eagles the NFC East title and that means they get to host this Wild Card Game despite winning two games fewer than the Seattle Seahawks. The latter are only here because they failed to convert a pass which landed on the one inch line on Sunday Night Football last week which would have given the Seahawks at least a home game in the Wild Card Round.

Pete Carroll is not bothered about how things have shaken up for his team which has been decimated by injury. The Seahawks finished 7-1 on the road in the regular season so having to win three road games to make the Super Bowl is not something the players will be intimidated by, even though they have lost key personnel to injury.

Some of the Defensive players will be back for Seattle which is a boost, while Marshawn Lynch has had an extra week with the team having been signed just before Week 17 after Chris Carson joined the other Running Backs in being ruled out for the season. I expect Lynch will get to see a bit more playing time in this one, and injuries on the Philadelphia Defensive Line should mean Seattle can get things going on the ground.

It will certainly be music to the ears of Russell Wilson who is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, although the Quarter Back scrambles from pressure as well as anyone. More importantly Wilson is one of the best passers of the ball when on the run and his ability to extend plays does see the Seahawks hurt opponents when they don't always expect it.

There are some holes in the Philadelphia Secondary which Wilson can exploit if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and I do think this will make it a tough day for Carson Wentz on his PlayOff debut.

Give the Quarter Back his due first of all- Wentz has been brilliant the last four games and he has shown the Eagles are right to see him as a franchise Quarter Back. Unfortunately the Eagles have been destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball and I can't see a magical run like they had when winning the Super Bowl three years ago.

Carson Wentz is likely going to be throwing to players that were way down the depth chart or coming off practice squads again on Sunday, but the Seattle Defensive unit is likely to be bolstered by a couple of key returns from injury. That makes the challenge for Wentz all the greater, although he should be aided by Miles Sanders at Running Back.

Sanders was banged up last week, but can come in with Boston Scott to at least make some big plays on the ground against a Seattle Defensive Line which has struggled against the run for much of the season. That will give the home underdog a chance for the upset if they can keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots, but even then you do find it hard to know whether the Receivers can make enough plays for their team and Quarter Back.

The Eagles have used being an underdog as a huge motivation in their last couple of PlayOff runs and one led to a Super Bowl win. That means they need to be respected, but Seattle look to be coming in a little healthier and I do think they are the stronger all around team.

Seattle have also won here already this season which has to give them a mental boost and they have now covered in their last four visits to Philadelphia. They have an impressive record bouncing back off a loss and the Seahawks are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen road games.

Philadelphia have been very impressive as an underdog in the PlayOffs, which I have mentioned, but they are also 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog. As much as I love the spirit they have shown under Head Coach Doug Pederson, I think a competitive loss is on the cards for the Eagles.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 62-67-2, - 21.16 Units (259 Units Staked, - 8.17% Yield)

NFL Play Offs Wild Card Weekend (January 4-5)

Week 17 has notoriously been a difficult weekend to get a real feel for, but this year proved much different as nothing had been set, apart from Kansas City in the Number 5 seed, when it came to the Play Off picture.

That mean teams played their starters throughout games and I was also at the end of a bit of fortune with Randall Cobb catching a Touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers at the end of the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears game.

With Dallas keeping it close against the Philadelphia Eagles, the picks had a big week to end the regular season in a very positive manner as we move into the Play Offs.


Black Monday also came through with a number of Head Coaches removed from their positions and we also saw Tampa Bay pick up Lovie Smith as their new Head Coach. I think that is going to prove to be a very good move, especially with Lesley Frazier in as Defensive Co-Ordinator, while I also have a good feeling for the Houston Texans and their appointment of Bill O'Brien from Penn State.


The Wild Card Weekend has three rematches from the regular season which gives us some film tape to look at, but you have to consider each match up as they come. After a strong Play Offs last year, I am hoping the picks can pick up from where they left off last year.

Here are my picks from the Wild Card Weekend.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: A repeat of a regular season game means we have some game film of these two teams against one another and the one thing I noticed from the first game is that Kansas City made a few critical mistakes and Indianapolis had a couple of big plays that made all the difference.

You can see that the sharps in Las Vegas are all over the Chiefs in this first of the Wild Card games with the spread coming down through the week to the point that we the favourites have slipped places.

I think the turf in Indianapolis is going to help Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs and I think there is every chance that he is going to have a big game and this whole game could be decided on how well the Indianapolis Colts contain the Running Back.

Charles will be able to get plenty going on the ground, if that is what Andy Reid sticks with, but he is also a big threat catching short passes from Alex Smith and ripping off huge gains in the open field. Indianapolis have to tackle well and restrict those gains if they are to give their team a chance to win this game.

I believe the Chiefs have more success moving the chains in this game than in Week 16, although Robert Mathis and co will keep Smith under pressure as they attack this Offensive Line. Smith has to restrict the mistakes to give the Chiefs an opportunity to score points and give them the best chance to knock off Andrew Luck.

However, the Chiefs will also need Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe to bring their early season form into this one and push back the Indianapolis Colts Offensive Line to keep Andrew Luck under pressure and hide the issues in the Secondary. If Luck has time, he will have a chance to attack the Chiefs downfield, while Kansas City also have to be aware of the short passes to the Running Back coming out of the backfield which did hurt them in the first game.

Donald Brown or Trent Richardson should also be able to run the ball more effectively than they have for much of the season, especially as the Chiefs Defense has been susceptible to the rush. That will also keep Luck in a decent position to make plays and also just slow down the pass rush to an extent to give the Quarter Back some time.

Luck has also won his two previous starts against Kansas City which has me favouring Indianapolis in this game. I do think Andy Reid will have a decent game plan organised to make this a closer game than the one in Week 16, especially if his Offense avoids the mistakes that killed them that day.

I also like the fact that a team that was an underdog in the regular season game, but is favoured in the Play Offs is 5-3 against the spread when the game is played at a different venue. I also have to respect the fact that the home underdog is 13-5 against the spread in this round of the Play Offs as well as an underdog of between 1-3 points is 26-19-1 against the spread which backs the Colts in this one.

I have to go against the sharps in this one and will back the Colts, as the underdog, to win this game.


New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: All we have been hearing all week is how the New Orleans Saints can't play outdoors and how the cold is going to affect them so much and it is no surprise that the Philadelphia Eagles have been set as the favourites to win this game.

However, that hasn't taken into consideration that two late plays cost the Saints against New England and Carolina and they did win in Chicago, so I don't think the confidence is going to be shot in the Saints just because they have to go on the road. It's not ideal of course, but they have every chance of coming through this first test at Philadelphia with the Offense they have.

The Saints Offense is certainly more potent at home, but this Philadelphia Secondary has struggled in pass coverage and that isn't the best preparation to face the likes of Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Kenny Stills. The Running Backs are also a problem to deal with coming out of the backfield and I think it will be tough for the Eagles to slow down this Offense throughout the game.

However, on the other hand, Philadelphia's Offense should also have plenty of success when they have the ball in their hands. LeSean McCoy and the running game should have a lot of room against this Saints Defense and that could be key for the Eagles if they are to win the game. Establishing this form of attack will give Nick Foles a chance to hurt New Orleans in the Secondary as they are missing two big pieces of that unit and also give the Eagles plenty of chances to score points.

The Offensive Line will have to play better though because Rob Ryan will send a lot of exotic looks at Nick Foles and the Quarter Back has been taking a few sacks of late as he doesn't want to force throws that lead to turnovers. That could at least force a few punts for the Saints which could prove to be the difference in a game where both teams should be able to move up and down the field.

Nick Foles is also making his first start in the Play Offs where QBs are just 3-10 against the spread as the favourite. Add the fact that the team with the better strength of schedule coming into the Wild Card Round is 32-12 against the spread and the same stat from the above game that small underdogs have a strong record all favour New Orleans in this one.

All in all, the head start given to New Orleans looks to be worth backing.


San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: This is probably one of the more surprising games in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs after San Diego somehow managed to squeeze into the Play Offs, but that might make the Chargers a dangerous proposition for Cincinnati.

Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been capable of controlling the clock and sustaining drives in games I have seen them play this season, but they found that to be one of the more difficult tasks against Cincinnati earlier in the regular season in what was a low-scoring game.

The Bengals are a much different team to face when playing in front of their fans as shown by their 8-0 record to finish the season and Andy Dalton now has the Play Off experience and the fortune of playing in front of his own fans. Dalton is certainly a better Quarter Back here and he has enough weapons to hurt San Diego, even more so when considering Cincinnati averaged almost 35 points per game here.

Those points are helped by the Defense which has created turnovers at home and are capable of forcing teams into tough third down situations. You have to credit San Diego for being a clean team for much of the season with few turnovers through the Offense, but they did have 3 against Cincinnati in the first game.

Turnovers look to be a big key in this game as to who will come out on top and it would be a surprise to see Cincinnati overcome the Interceptions that Andy Dalton threw last week against Baltimore. If Cincinnati look after the ball, I do like their chances to win this game and cover the spread.

A couple of trends also favour the Bengals including the team with the stronger strength of schedule going 32-12 against the spread in this Round. Another is the road team is actually 20-43-1 against the spread when playing a Divisional rival in Week 17.


San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There used to be a time when the Green Bay Packers were unbeatable on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field when it came to the Play Offs, but they are only 3-4 in their last 7 home games in the post-season.

The match up for them is not very good when you look at it on paper, especially for their Defense, but I also believe the Green Bay Packers will have their own success with the ball in their hands. The San Francisco Secondary has struggled against the pass in recent games and they can't sell out on playing that aspect alone with Eddie Lacy and James Starks both running the ball effectively.

It should be a fascinating game, but one I think San Francisco are going to be too strong and likely come out on top... However, I am taking the points in this game and the Packers to at least make it competitive.

I believe the Green Bay Offense can score points against this Defense with the return of their players and the extra dimension of a strong running game. The spread also looks out of sync considering the 49ers were just 5 points favourites when hosting Green Bay earlier this season and that was coming off a complete beat down of the same team in the Play Offs last year.

The trends also favour Green Bay when you see that a team that beat the other as a favourite and is then favoured to win in the Play Offs, even at a different venue, is just 2-8 against the spread. Green Bay also come in with the stronger strength of schedule (32-12 against the spread) and San Francisco were a road team at a Divisional rival in Week 17 (20-43-1 against the spread).

Being a home underdog has proved profitable in the past as well as being a small underdog (between 1-3 points) and all of these factors are favouring the Packers in this game.

It might not be a big number of points to be taking, but I will back the Packers with the points in this one.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 81-64-2, + 24.63 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

Weekend Football 2014 (January 4-5)

When I was growing up, I have to say that there was a special feeling that came with the Third Round of the FA Cup, although it is clear that the younger generation growing up will now see this as a secondary competition compared with the Premier League and the Champions League.

It is really the growth of the latter that has affected this competition more than the money involved in the Premier League in my opinion- I know a lot of clubs in the bottom half of the table would rather concentrate on the League than having a long Cup run, but the likes of Arsenal have made their disdain for this competition clear in recent years.

For Arsene Wenger, finishing in the top four and a place in the Champions League is a far bigger achievement than winning the FA Cup and I don't think this competition will recover the prestige it once enjoyed unless UEFA suddenly decided the Champions League was only for the Champions.

More of the bigger clubs would then give this competition a bit more respect and make fans 'want to win' the FA Cup- some fans still have the love affair with the competition, but for the majority it has become a luxury to have a long Cup run rather than a necessity.


We heard Paul Lambert all but admit that the FA Cup is a pain in the backside for managers in the top flight these days and that must have been a real disappointment for Aston Villa fans to hear, but I fear that Lambert was only hitting the nail on the head. This week we will see what managers think of the competition with the teams they send out on the field after a busy Christmas period as the Third Round is played over the weekend with five live matches for the neutrals to enjoy.


Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City Pick: The FA Cup has regularly been a tough competition to get a read on as it follows the League Cup route for a lot of managers. This week we heard Paul Lambert say that most would give up the chance for a Cup run in place of securing their Premier League status, but Manchester City and Manuel Pellegrini have a deep squad that should be capable of winning here even if they make changes.

One factor that may equal the teams up a little is the poor weather that is affecting the United Kingdom, although City showed they are capable of playing in bad conditions with a win at Swansea on New Year's Day.

Blackburn Rovers have played well at home for the most part, but they have rarely seen a team of the quality of Manchester City. The latter also crushed Leicester City in a League Cup game away from home and should prove to have a little too much for this Blackburn side.

I expect a decent Manchester City team, even with the changes they will make for bigger games ahead, and I think they can win this game with room to spare.


Bolton Wanderers v Blackpool Pick: For the second season in succession, Bolton Wanderers are playing catch up in their bid for promotion to the Premier League, but they have at least shown some signs of an upturn in form in recent weeks.

On the other hand, Blackpool made a fast start to the season, but have begun to drift away from the top six and will be entering this game on a terrible run of form. Blackpool have lost 6 of their last 7 games coming into this one, including the last 4 in a row away from home.

I have to be concerned with the fact that Bolton have only won twice at the Reebok Stadium all season, but both of those victories have come within the last five matches here and Bolton have been scoring goals. It is scoring goals that has been a big problem for Blackpool and I think a small interest in the home team is warranted.


Everton v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Out of these two teams, I would hazard a real guess at Queens Park Rangers making the vast changes to their usual starting line up compared with Everton and I think that will only aid the home team to move through to the Fourth Round.

I would have favoured Everton to win this game against a full-strength Rangers team, especially at Goodison Park where they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks, so I do feel a little more confident in their chances with the belief that Harry Redknapp makes a host of changes.

Everton were comfortable winners over Queens Park Rangers here last season and I think they will win this one by a couple of goals and will back them to do so.


Newcastle United v Cardiff City Pick: There is every chance that there will be changes to both sides, some enforced like the Mathieu Debuchy suspension, but I think this game will mean a lot more to Newcastle United than it will for Cardiff City and home advantage should be critical to that end.

A new manager in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a factor that could help Cardiff put in a bigger performance to impress him, while also snapping their poor away run from recent games, but it is still a big ask for them to come to this ground and force the win.

As much as Solskjaer is saying the right things about the approach to this game, there is no way Cardiff City will want a replay with big Premier League games ahead. I don't think Cardiff will roll over, but Newcastle United have a lot of attacking talent in their squad and their extra motivation may just spark the victory.

I am not a big fan of the price for a home win, but I do think Newcastle United will prove a little too good and come through with a narrow win and a place in the Fourth Round.


Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This hasn't been a competition that has Arsene Wenger's undivided attention in recent seasons and I won't be surprised if Arsenal play a team with a number of changes so they can focus on Premier League games ahead.

That may give Tottenham Hotspur a chance of causing a surprise in this one and winning a North London derby at the home of their rivals for the first time since 2010. I would expect the FA Cup would mean a lot to someone like Tim Sherwood who would have grown up watching this competition and I think his team will represent that.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win here at the outset, although team news could change that opinion, but this is a fixture that has regularly produced goals in the past. The wet conditions may see more mistakes made and I think the 1-0 Arsenal win earlier this season was an exception to what has been a high-scoring game.

A replay won't necessarily be wanted by either manager which should translate to an attacking game and I expect both teams to have their chances. It isn't the most appealing price but backing at least 3 goals to be scored looks to be the call in this game.


Derby County v Chelsea Pick: Since Steve McClaren returned to Derby County, this time in the position of manager, there has been a pick up of form from the Rams who have moved up the League table and look set to be a major player when it comes to the automatic promotion positions in the Championship.

Despite a loss in their most recent game, there is no doubt in my mind that Derby are going to give Chelsea all they can handle in this game, especially with the television cameras heading to Pride Park.

The fact that they are playing a game on Friday night at Leicester City, potentially a vital one in the race for promotion, has to be a concern that McClaren rests key players that may be fatigued after a busy festive period. If he does, Chelsea will have an easier time in the office in a competition where Jose Mourinho will pick strong teams.

Mourinho loves the FA Cup so while I expect changes, I think he will also be respectful of what Derby are capable of and still play a strong team. Chelsea should prove to be too strong with the squad at their disposal, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Derby manage to get on the scoreboard themselves. Derby had scored in every home game since the end of August before the 0-1 loss to Wigan Athletic, and Chelsea are vulnerable at the back, so backing the away side to win a game in which both teams score could be the right call.


Liverpool v Oldham Athletic Pick: There seems to be no reason for Brendan Rodgers to play a weakened Liverpool side since this game was moved to a Sunday afternoon and with a week to go before they are next asked to play a Premier League game. The last thing Liverpool want is an extra game from a replay, but they will want a deep FA Cup run if possible so I expect them to come out and continue their recent dominating form at Anfield.

Liverpool have scored plenty of goals at home and I expect Luis Suarez to cause Oldham Athletic a lot of problems in this one and possibly boost his scoring statistics with at least a couple of goals.

It will be tough for Oldham Athletic to contain Liverpool, even with their decent away form in recent weeks. Unfortunately for the preparation of the players, they won't have played teams with the quality Liverpool have and I think they will do well to keep the score respectable.

Premier League defences have struggled to cope with Liverpool at Anfield and I don't think Oldham can do much better- they will do well to avoid a similar defeat to their 5-1 loss here a couple of years ago and I think Liverpool sweep the handicap.


Manchester United v Swansea Pick: This has become a much more important game for Manchester United after a poor first half of the season by the standards they have set over the last twenty years. David Moyes will be feeling a lot more pressure with another home loss and a run in the FA Cup will at least keep the fans on board.

Most fans do understand that Moyes needs time to shape the squad in the fashion he wishes, while the team that has been left over needs some work especially in the middle of the park.

It would only be fair to give Moyes more than one transfer window to get things right for Manchester United, although he could have done with a much more comfortable Third Round match than against a ball-playing Swansea team that will come to Old Trafford with nothing to lose.

While that will help them in some respects, it will also give Manchester United perhaps more room to work with when they do get forward, although they are missing some big pieces in Robin Van Persie and likely Wayne Rooney for this one. That heaps more pressure on Danny Welbeck to continue his recent goal-scoring form, but he should have some chances come his way.

United look very short in the market to win this game on current form, but I do think they find a way to get that done. However, it may make more sense backing United to win a close game than anything else, especially as 5 of their last 7 wins at Old Trafford have come by a single goal.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Everton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Chelsea to Win @ 2.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January Update: 4-2, + 4.7 Units (10 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)