A lot of people speak about how quickly time seems to move between the NFL kicking off and getting into the PlayOffs and I have to very much agree with those thoughts.
Seventeen weeks of Football are now in the books and we are down to the final twelve teams who are going to be entering a 'new season' as they push for a spot in the Super Bowl and winning the NFL Championship.
There are some really good teams involved in the next few weeks and I am looking forward to all of the potential PlayOff games we are about to see. Like many others, I am stunned to see the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round after they failed to win a game in which they were over 17 point favourites in Week 17 of the season.
It has led to more questions about the Patriots and whether this dynasty is now over, but they are big favourites this weekend and any team with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's experience have to be respected.
Teams like Baltimore, Kansas City and New Orleans look way better equipped to win the Super Bowl, but we will get to see it all played out beginning with this Wild Card Round played over two days.
My personal lean is towards a Kansas City Chiefs versus New Orleans Saints Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens not too far behind. I do think the majority will be behind one of those four teams as far as Super Bowl predictions will go so I am not putting my neck on the line with my own selection of teams, although I will also admit it will be a Super Bowl I can really enjoy without the Patriots involved no matter how the final two shake up from the four teams selected.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Pick: I don't think too many people will be expecting either one of these teams to have a very deep PlayOff run, but a win in the Wild Card Round could be a big boost in the development for one of the Quarter Backs playing. Deshaun Watson is playing in his second PlayOff game on Saturday, while Josh Allen is at this stage for the first time in his career and the two players have shown they are men you can build your franchise around.
Winning a PlayOff game will give the successful Quarter Back a huge boost going into the 2020 season and I also think it will be a boost for the winning team even if they will be significant underdogs in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs regardless of whether that game is in Baltimore or Kansas City.
The Texans and Bills were both beaten in Week 17, but key players were rested in losses to Divisional rivals which meant very little to two teams locked into their Seeding in the AFC. However the Bills almost had a scare when Levi Wallace was banged up before the starters were pulled, although they look to have escaped a serious injury after Wallace returned to practice this week.
He looks to be trending towards playing in this Wild Card Game and that is very important to a strong Buffalo Defensive unit which sets the mood for the team. One of the big strengths of the Houston Offense has to be the depth in the Receiving options so missing a key Corner Back like Wallace would have hurt the Bills and especially after Will Fuller returned to practice for Houston and is almost certainly going to play in this one.
Deshaun Watson is a very good Quarter Back, but he has had one or two issues finding consistency when Fuller is not in the line up. The Wide Receiver stretches things out and makes it easier for Watson to make plays, but this is going to be a tough test for him against the Bills whose Secondary have played very well all season.
The problem for Watson is that even the improvements made to the Offensive Line have not been enough to prevent the protection breaking down when teams begin to rush him. The Texans will find it tough to give Watson a lot of time when he drops back to pass and things won't be helped by what is expected to be a challenging day trying to run the ball against the Buffalo Defensive Line.
If the Bills can clamp down on the run like they have, they should be able to stay in front of the chains and from there I would expect the pass rush to stall a couple of drives and perhaps even lead to a mistake or two from Watson at Quarter Back.
Avoiding mistakes is likely going to be a key part of the team meetings in the week leading up to this PlayOff game for both teams and it is important for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills that they give their Defensive unit the best chance to put the team in a position to win. Josh Allen has been much improved in his second year as Quarter Back of the Bills, but he will know he doesn't need to push himself to make huge plays to give his team the best chance of winning a PlayOff game for the first time in twenty-five years.
Buffalo are a team who want to pound the ball and they will believe they will be able to establish the run in this one. Recent games were not the best for the Bills in terms of the run, but the Houston Defensive Line has struggled up front and Devin Singletary could have a decent outing, while Josh Allen is more than a capable scrambler from the Quarter Back position which will double his threat in this one for the Texans.
There is the boost of having JJ Watt back, although that is going to impact the pass rush rather than the ability to clamp down on the run and I think Buffalo will have a chance to establish the ground game which really opens things up for them Offensively. If they are able to get things going, Josh Allen will be able to turn and attack this Secondary with real success and the Bills look a live underdog here.
JJ Watt's return will give the Texans a boost emotionally as well as helping what has been an inconsistent pass rush, but even that may not be enough. The Bills have proven to be very comfortable playing on the road and Josh Allen has come on leaps and bounds which could see him produce a rare success for a first time PlayOff Quarter Back.
There is a real trend where opposing a Quarter Back making his debut in the PlayOffs is concerned, but I do think Buffalo have the Defensive unit to restrict Houston and give Josh Allen all of the chances he needs to help win the game.
Buffalo are 8-1-2 against the spread in their last eleven games on the road and they are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog. The Texans are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I do think Deshaun Watson can be rattled by the kind of pressure he will face in this one as well as the lack of separation his Receivers might have.
It'll all be on Watson who won't have much support from Carlos Hyde running the ball and I think it may lead to Buffalo winning the turnover battle.
I am a little concerned by the record of first time Quarter Backs playing in the PlayOffs, while Buffalo have not played well against the best teams they have faced. However home favourites of less than 3 points are 1-9 against the spread on Wild Card Weekend since 2000 and I am going to take the points in this opening PlayOff game.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots Pick: When 'all' you have to do is beat the Miami Dolphins to secure the Number 2 Seed in the AFC it is not just a disappointment that the New England Patriots have failed to do that in Week 17, but potentially one that costs them a realistic chance of making the Super Bowl. The Patriots were 17.5 point favourites against the Miami Dolphins, but stunningly lost in Foxboro and that means playing in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs for the first time since 2009.
There are plenty of doubters now and that has to be fuelling the New England Patriots although the second half of the season has seen them not really go into the kind of PlayOff mode we have seen in the past. Instead the Patriots have not really found the consistency they would have liked and now have to face a Tennessee Titans team who were playing as well as most down the stretch in the regular season.
It was some benefit for the Titans that they were able to play a Houston team resting key starters in Week 17, but they still had to win on the road and did that very well. This is a far biggest test for the Titans though considering the experience that is in front of them, but Tennessee do have a very strong minded Head Coach in Mike Vrabel and I do think they will be as well prepared for this test as they can be.
The weather was looking like being a big concern for this game with Winter Storm Henry approaching Foxboro, although it sounds like it will be rainy and not snowy when this game kicks off.
So while the main impact of Weather Storm Henry won't be felt, one Henry will be heading to the Stadium and looking to make as much rumbling as possible. Derrick Henry is a huge part of the Tennessee Offense and he is likely to have even more of the ball if the rain makes it difficult to throw down the field.
We have all known how impressive Bill Belichick has been in planning to erase the biggest threat his opponent has on the field, but taking away Henry completely won't be easy. The Titans Offensive Line have been opening some big holes for Henry, while the physical nature of the Running Back means he can wear down Defensive Lines and eventually break a big one down the field.
The Patriots have been pretty good on the Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but Ryan Tannehill has also played well enough when he drops back to throw which gives them the balance to at least keep New England guessing. It would be a surprise if New England don't try and force Tannehill to beat them through the air considering the conditions expected in Foxboro, but Henry will get his numbers.
And I do think Tannehill and the Titans will be encouraged by what Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins did in Week 17. With AJ Brown beginning to show he could be one of the top Receivers in the NFL in the years ahead, Tennessee should be able to move the chains in this PlayOff game and give themselves an opportunity to win.
Much will depend on how Ryan Tannehill handles the pressure of playing in his first ever PlayOff game, while he also has to exorcise some demons in Foxboro having never won here with the Miami Dolphins. Like with the first PlayOff game, the trend against first time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season is not a good one for Tannehill, but Tennessee have been confident since he came into the starting line up and that should mean they can score enough points to potentially earn the upset.
It would be an upset even if Tennessee will be a trendy pick for some, because the New England Patriots are still a team who have shown they can overcome adversity. The long-running Super Bowl successes just can't be ignored and Tom Brady will have spent all week hearing about how the Patriots time is done which will have lit a fire under a player that may be finishing up his personal time here.
No one will dispute Brady's place in the pantheon of NFL history, but the Offensive unit has struggled this season and it is hard to see how much they can turn that around. Like Tennessee, the Patriots are going to try and establish the run and they may have some success doing that through Sony Michel if they pick up from where they left off last week.
Running the ball against the Tennessee Defensive Line is far from easy, but New England's Offensive Line have shown better shape in recent games and so they may have more success than most. In the conditions it is likely going to be the first port of call for the game-planning, although the Titans Secondary has been struggling in recent weeks too and that can't have escaped the attention of the Patriots either.
Unfortunately outside of Julian Edelman, who is banged up, the Patriots don't have the reliable Receivers of years gone by which will make it hard for Tom Brady to have the kind of successes he has enjoyed. The Titans also bring a pass rush which can be disruptive and I do think they are going to have the insight of their Head Coach to make this a close game on Saturday evening.
Tennessee have covered in their last four road games against teams with a winning record, although the trends largely favour New England in this game. The Patriots are a team who bounce back from losses, have been very strong at home and who have a very good record in PlayOff games as the favourite.
However I think the right play is with the road team and the points in what I feel will be a close game in the conditions. I hate opposing New England because they are capable of turning it on and getting things done, but my feeling is that the Tennessee Titans are playing well enough to keep this one close.
If Derrick Henry can get rumbling, this feels like a game that might be settled by a Field Goal margin in Foxboro on Saturday.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Any build up to this game is going to feature images and video from the 'Miracle of Minneapolis' two years ago when somehow the New Orleans Saints snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Minnesota Vikings. That was a Case Keenum inspired Vikings team that moved past New Orleans who suffered another heartbreaking PlayOff defeat twelve months ago.
Revenge is going to be on the minds of the fans who travel to the SuperDome on Sunday for this Wild Card Game, but I think Sean Payton will be playing down the significance of that. In Week 17 one inch prevented the Saints from having a Bye into the Divisional Round so the only focus this week is not revenge, but simply winning a PlayOff game against a quality opponent.
New Orleans won't deny there is something for them to prove having lost in the PlayOffs in the manner they have in each of the past two seasons, but Kirk Cousins will heading into the game with the Minnesota Vikings knowing many are expecting the latest implosion from him in a big game environment.
That narrative was added to in Week 16 when Cousins was downright awful against the Green Bay Packers in a game that ended their hopes of winning the NFC North. It came at home on a Monday Night Football and Minnesota have to be concerned about how they have played against fellow PlayOff teams in the regular season.
Granted that doesn't matter once you get into the post-season, while Cousins will also have Dalvin Cook back and hopefully a healthier Adam Thielen to throw to. The absence of Cook has been difficult and one of the premier Running Backs in the NFL is hoping to have a big impact on this game when making his first PlayOff appearance at the end of a season in which he cracked 1000 yards on the ground.
The Saints Defensive Line has just clamped down on runners of late as they have filled some of the gaps left behind by injuries and so it won't be easy for Cook who is unlikely to be fully healthy. However Dalvin Cook has shown he can burst through some small holes to open things up for Kirk Cousins and the key for the Vikings will be to try and control the clock on the ground while also keeping the team in front of the chains.
For much of the season it has worked for the Vikings who haven't asked Kirk Cousins to do too much, but in a potential shoot out with the Saints more may be expected of the Quarter Back. He does have a couple of solid Receivers, although the injury to Adam Thielen has made the passing attack that much easier to defend, while the Saints Secondary has overcome some injuries and continue to play at a high level.
They are helped by the pass rush that can be generated and I do think that is going to be an important part of slowing down the Vikings when they do have the ball. The last thing Minnesota want to do is get down multiple scores and have to move away from the game plan and drop back to throw fifty times to stay with their hosts.
Judging by recent games played by the New Orleans Saints, it is not too far fetched to believe they will be able to score on most possessions. Drew Brees is playing as well as at any time in the last twelve months and the Minnesota Secondary is banged up which leaves them vulnerable to a team who have scored at least 34 points in four games in a row.
Things could become very problematic for the Vikings if they do give away a couple of big runs on the ground as that will just open things up for Brees who has been carving up opponents. Alvin Kamara has played well in the last couple of weeks, but he is also a major threat catching short screen passes and all in all it looks like a game in which New Orleans are going to be able to do what they want Offensively.
Despite the public favouring New Orleans, sharp money has come in on Minnesota to drop the spread, although it is still above the key number 7. I do think the Vikings could potentially sneak a backdoor cover which makes this a dangerous number to lay, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams and New Orleans have plenty of momentum behind them.
Minnesota are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games when set as the underdog, and while the Saints have not been the best home favourite to back, they are a team with plenty of good trends behind them.
Kirk Cousins lost his only other PlayOff start to the Green Bay Packers and I think the Saints will be too potent Offensively for this Quarter Back to keep the Vikings with them. It is a big number without a doubt, but the New Orleans Saints can find the points to earn the cover and get ready for a trip to the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Since Carson Wentz was Drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles he was named the starter and the team have gone on to two PlayOff runs which includes winning the Super Bowl. However injuries meant Nick Foles led those post-season runs and so, stunningly, this is the first ever PlayOff start for Carson Wentz.
Four wins in a row gave the Philadelphia Eagles the NFC East title and that means they get to host this Wild Card Game despite winning two games fewer than the Seattle Seahawks. The latter are only here because they failed to convert a pass which landed on the one inch line on Sunday Night Football last week which would have given the Seahawks at least a home game in the Wild Card Round.
Pete Carroll is not bothered about how things have shaken up for his team which has been decimated by injury. The Seahawks finished 7-1 on the road in the regular season so having to win three road games to make the Super Bowl is not something the players will be intimidated by, even though they have lost key personnel to injury.
Some of the Defensive players will be back for Seattle which is a boost, while Marshawn Lynch has had an extra week with the team having been signed just before Week 17 after Chris Carson joined the other Running Backs in being ruled out for the season. I expect Lynch will get to see a bit more playing time in this one, and injuries on the Philadelphia Defensive Line should mean Seattle can get things going on the ground.
It will certainly be music to the ears of Russell Wilson who is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, although the Quarter Back scrambles from pressure as well as anyone. More importantly Wilson is one of the best passers of the ball when on the run and his ability to extend plays does see the Seahawks hurt opponents when they don't always expect it.
There are some holes in the Philadelphia Secondary which Wilson can exploit if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and I do think this will make it a tough day for Carson Wentz on his PlayOff debut.
Give the Quarter Back his due first of all- Wentz has been brilliant the last four games and he has shown the Eagles are right to see him as a franchise Quarter Back. Unfortunately the Eagles have been destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball and I can't see a magical run like they had when winning the Super Bowl three years ago.
Carson Wentz is likely going to be throwing to players that were way down the depth chart or coming off practice squads again on Sunday, but the Seattle Defensive unit is likely to be bolstered by a couple of key returns from injury. That makes the challenge for Wentz all the greater, although he should be aided by Miles Sanders at Running Back.
Sanders was banged up last week, but can come in with Boston Scott to at least make some big plays on the ground against a Seattle Defensive Line which has struggled against the run for much of the season. That will give the home underdog a chance for the upset if they can keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots, but even then you do find it hard to know whether the Receivers can make enough plays for their team and Quarter Back.
The Eagles have used being an underdog as a huge motivation in their last couple of PlayOff runs and one led to a Super Bowl win. That means they need to be respected, but Seattle look to be coming in a little healthier and I do think they are the stronger all around team.
Seattle have also won here already this season which has to give them a mental boost and they have now covered in their last four visits to Philadelphia. They have an impressive record bouncing back off a loss and the Seahawks are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen road games.
Philadelphia have been very impressive as an underdog in the PlayOffs, which I have mentioned, but they are also 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog. As much as I love the spirit they have shown under Head Coach Doug Pederson, I think a competitive loss is on the cards for the Eagles.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Season 2019: 62-67-2, - 21.16 Units (259 Units Staked, - 8.17% Yield)
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Showing posts with label January 5th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label January 5th. Show all posts
Friday, 3 January 2020
Saturday, 5 January 2019
NFL Wild Card Play Off Picks 2019 (January 5-6)
We have reached the NFL Play Offs and I am looking forward to the final month of the season where there is the potential for some huge stories to be written and some brilliant games to be played.
Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.
However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.
Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.
Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.
The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .
In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.
Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.
Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.
Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.
Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.
I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.
The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.
The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.
I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.
This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.
The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.
Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.
However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.
There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.
I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.
Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.
While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.
Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.
With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.
Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.
I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.
The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.
Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.
Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.
Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.
As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.
Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.
Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.
The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.
It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.
There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.
The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.
Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.
I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.
Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.
Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.
Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.
Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.
The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.
There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.
I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.
Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.
The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.
Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.
The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.
However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.
Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.
Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.
The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .
In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.
Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.
Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.
Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.
Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.
I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.
The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.
The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.
I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.
This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.
The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.
Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.
However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.
There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.
I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.
Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.
While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.
Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.
With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.
Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.
I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.
The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.
Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.
Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.
Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.
As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.
Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.
Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.
The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.
It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.
There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.
The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.
Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.
I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.
Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.
Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.
Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.
Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.
The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.
There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.
I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.
Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.
The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.
Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.
The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Friday, 5 January 2018
Weekend Football Picks- FA Cup Third Round 2018 (January 5-8)
The festive period is one for family, but things have settled back down now the New Year has been rung in.
The players in the English Leagues may be feeling the same with January a much less frantic month compared with December, while some of the bigger names will be given a couple of weeks off by not being asked to take part in the FA Cup Third Round weekend.
You have to almost second guess what managers are going to do no matter where their teams sit in the English Divisions, but you can begin to hazard a guess. It does make the Third Round a bit of a minefield to make predictions in, but that is what we have this weekend.
Next week I am planning to get down my latest 'United Corner' after a tough run for Manchester United, but one they are looking like coming out of the other side of.
I will also have a full update from the December Picks after a hectic time before a couple of different posts which will have picks from the League Cup Semi Final ties as well as the next round of Premier League fixtures to be played.
Liverpool v Everton Pick: The festive period can be very difficult for clubs in the Premier League and that has seen the Third Round of the FA Cup suffer with much changed line ups taking to the field.
That is likely to be the case for much of the Third Round, but the Merseyside derby could be a little different with both Liverpool and Everton likely to respect the history of the fixture.
Injury could be a bigger factor for Liverpool as both Philippe Coutinho and Mo Salah are expected to miss out, although rumours about Coutinho’s future with the club have resurfaced. A mistake by Nike saw an advert for Coutinho named Barcelona shirts to be ordered, although Jurgen Klopp has dismissed all suggestions the Brazilian is about to leave Liverpool.
With both Coutinho and Salah out, Liverpool do lose considerable threat in the final third, although both Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino are expected to play a part. The squad depth also showed in the 1-2 win at Burnley on New Year’s Day and I am not sure Everton can make as many changes and remain as effective as Liverpool can do.
It will be interesting to see what kind of team Sam Allardyce picks with recent years showing he is not the most disappointed with an early FA Cup exit. That is usually as he is focusing on keeping a team in the Premier League, but Everton look to have more about them and Allardyce has to be a little disappointed with the way the draw panned out.
One factor you can count on is Everton looking to be tough to beat and frustrate Liverpool. However they have just lost a little of their way in the last week and I think that may show up here as Liverpool get revenge for dropping two points against their rivals in December.
Those were dropped in controversial fashion and I think the game will mean more to the men in red, which I expect to make a difference. This time I don’t think Liverpool miss the host of chances they did when hosting Everton in December and I will back the home side to win and cover the Asian Handicap on their way through to the Fourth Round of the FA Cup.
Manchester United v Derby County Pick: Jose Mourinho will always point to his trophy record when he is under pressure and he would love to deliver another to Old Trafford to add to the League Cup and Europa League won in his first season in charge. With the Premier League gone, the Champions League and FA Cup are very important and I think the team choice will reflect that.
Strong teams were also picked when Manchester United hosted Reading and Wigan Athletic from the Championship last season. This game also has more in common with the Third Round success over Reading twelve months ago as they are facing another team flying high in the Championship and hoping to be visiting Old Trafford in a League fixture next season.
Derby County are in one of the top two positions for automatic promotion to the Premier League and the Championship is clearly the priority for Gary Rowett. That should mean he is making changes to freshen up his team and giving the key players a chance for a little rest and I do think Manchester United may take this more seriously than their visitors.
Of course playing at Old Trafford will be an inspiration for any player, but Jose Mourinho’s team have generally been very good against teams from this level. Derby County may take encouragement from Bristol City’s win over Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final a few weeks ago, but that game was at Ashton Gate and playing at Old Trafford is a different matter.
Recent results have not been the best for Manchester United at home, but Reading, Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion have been thumped here in Cup competitions over the last twelve months. All three teams were Championship clubs and all three conceded four times in those losses.
With the limited room to change the starting eleven, a strong Manchester United team can book their place in the Fourth Round without the need for a Replay. I think Derby County’s attention could turn away from the Cup and back towards the League which will suit them and I will back Manchester United to win by two or more goals on the evening.
Fleetwood Town v Leicester City Pick: The 'Jamie Vardy derby' has been selected for live television coverage on Saturday lunchtime in the FA Cup Third Round, but both sets of fans will be hoping Vardy is able to take part in this one.
The England international banged in 34 goals in only 42 appearances in all competitions for Fleetwood Town in his one season with the club in 2011/12 before he was sold on to Leicester City. The fans are almost certainly going to want to welcome back a cult hero, but Vardy was suffering with an issue which kept him out of the Leicester City win over Huddersfield Town on Monday.
Claude Puel won't let sentiment play a part in his selection, but I do think the Frenchman would know how important the Cup competitions are to the Leicester City owners. Picking up silverware, or at least trying to, is going to be key for a long-term future as manager of the club and so I would anticipate a strong team will be picked, albeit one with a few changes.
That team should be good enough to win at Highbury against a Fleetwood Town team who have been inconsistent at the League One level. They have lost their last 3 home games in a row which won't have improved the mood of the players, or the confidence, and I think Leicester City will find a way to wear them down.
Tactically it will be a little challenge for Leicester City at first as they won't be used to having as much of the ball as they are likely to have. The counter attack might not be as open as they are used to away from home either, but the quality of the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy should be able to unlock the Fleetwood Town backdoor.
Leicester City were upset 1-0 at then League One Millwall last season, but that came during a terrible time for Claudio Ranieri and the club fighting against relegation. Without those worries I would expect a more focused Leicester City to turn up at Highbury on Saturday lunch time and I do think the away side can win by a comfortable margin as they pick off Fleetwood Town once they take the lead.
Bolton Wanderers v Huddersfield Town Pick: When both teams are expected to make the kind of changes that Bolton Wanderers and Huddersfield Town are expected to do for the FA Cup Third Round fixture, it can be difficult to really get a feel for how the fixture will go. Chemistry can be an issue for players who are not used to playing with one another, but I also think Bolton Wanderers being at home is going to be very important for them.
In recent weeks Bolton Wanderers have found a vast improvement in results and performances which has carried them out of the bottom three of the Championship. That may give Phil Parkinson more reason to keep the momentum going after winning 3 of their last 4 League games, while the fans will sense there is an upset here to be had.
Huddersfield Town played weakened teams in the League Cup and David Wagner won't lose a lot of sleep if The Terriers were to be knocked out here. That doesn't mean his players will roll over as they will want to show the manager they are good enough to aid in the Premier League survival battle, but I think it would be a big surprise if Huddersfield Town don't feature a starting eleven with wholesale changes.
That certainly makes them look an unappealing price at close to odds on to win at the Macron Stadium despite the Division between the clubs. It does feel the motivation will be stronger from the home team who won't want to disappoint at home, and I think that could be enough to make the difference in a tight game where there is little between them.
I would limit stakes to a minimum in this one with some uncertainties about both teams, but backing Bolton Wanderers with a start on the Asian Handicap looks good enough to me.
Bournemouth v Wigan Athletic Pick: Usually you would say a Premier League club hosting one from League One is only going to end one way, but Wigan Athletic will head to Bournemouth with confidence of perhaps earning an upset. While there are likely to be changes for the home team, Wigan Athletic will pick a more familiar looking line up and are on a very good run of form to only improve the belief of the players.
Actually picking the upset would have been easier if this game was played in Wigan, but it will be difficult for the visitors to leave the Vitality Stadium with a win.
At least Wigan Athletic will believe after seeing some of the defensive performances that have been produced by Bournemouth in recent weeks, even if those have come at a much higher level than The Latics are competing at. They have a team who have been scoring plenty of goals, but the 5 game run without conceding a goal will be under threat against superior players.
Eddie Howe will also be prioritising the Premier League over the FA Cup, or so you would think after Bournemouth were dragged back towards the bottom three, and last season that resulted in a 3-0 loss at Millwall from League One. Granted that came away from home, but Wigan Athletic will look to that result and look to replicate it.
I did consider picking Wigan Athletic with the start on the Asian Handicap, but the layers aren't taking many chances with the size of the start the visitors are getting.
Instead I do think Wigan Athletic can play a part in a good game of football this weekend. The weather is improving on the south coast which means a cold, but relatively dry day which should mean the playing surface allows both teams to express themselves and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
I would expect Bournemouth to score at least once against a League One opponent, while their own defensive issues should mean Wigan Athletic have a few chances of their own. As long as the two teams find the finishes, this should be a game that has enough chances to provide three goals to be shared out.
Fulham v Southampton Pick: The FA Cup has a history of producing some big surprises, but those have begun to become less common in recent years as the top clubs have the strength in depth to cope with all the challenges they face.
However there are a few teams you would look at this week and wonder how much motivation there is for a long FA Cup run, particularly in the Premier League where relegation is a huge financial blow for clubs.
Southampton may be one of those teams vulnerable to the upset having blown a 1-0 lead to lose to Crystal Palace on Tuesday night and slip a little closer to the bottom three. Losing a game to a potential relegation rival is a blow, but losing one of those when leading is really tough to take.
The pressure is firmly on Mauricio Pellegrino, but the FA Cup is likely an unwanted distraction for a club who are going to put the Premier League fixtures above all others. Southampton have already been beaten by a club from the Championship in the League Cup, and now Southampton have to travel to a tough ground.
Playing a team in the form Fulham have been producing only increases the threat of the upset and this is a side who have won 4 straight at home and 3 of their last 4 overall. With chances and goals being produced, Fulham might have all the ingredients for the upset this week and I was tempted to back the home team at a big price to win outright.
However you can get decent odds quoted with a start on the Asian Handicap which provides a positive return even in case of a draw. A Southampton win would be an ‘upset’ as far as I am concerned, despite the prices having them down as favourites, and I will take Fulham with the start to earn a positive result.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: Both Manchester City and Burnley would likely have hoped for a better FA Cup Third Round draw considering the spot in the schedule this Round takes. Coming off a really difficult December, one even more so than usual, means both managers will take the opportunity to rotate their squads and home advantage should be key for Manchester City here.
It is tough to know exactly how many changes the two managers will make and this can also produce less than the usual intensity from the starting elevens. That isn't because of a lack of effort, but the lack of chemistry between new faces can make it tough to really get into fifth gear.
Manchester City may have a slight advantage having used mixed teams in the League Cup throughout this season and also in the Champions League final game at Shakhtar Donetsk. That means the players are a little more familiar with one another and Manchester City have a deep enough squad to continue winning their games even when changes are made.
Burnley won't roll over for them and I expect them to make it as difficult for Manchester City as they did when these teams met in the Premier League. It was a couple of late goals that made the scoreline look like a one sided win for Manchester City, but it was far closer than the final 3-0 result suggested.
I expect Burnley will look to make it difficult for Manchester City again and hope they can frustrate the home team into a mistake or two. That might mean another tough day for Manchester City, but they have shown they generally find a way to break teams down and Pep Guardiola won't want a Replay in this tie.
It feels like Manchester City will find a way to earn a narrow win here and I will back them to win a game where fewer than four goals are scored.
Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The live televised FA Cup tie on Saturday afternoon comes from East Anglia and Norwich City will be hoping they can earn the upset over a Chelsea side that could be making wholesale changes.
However Chelsea have plenty of players in the squad who are full internationals that need minutes and I expect Antonio Conte will be playing a team that is capable of winning here. They made plenty of changes in a 4-1 win over Peterborough United in the Third Round twelve months ago, although that game was at Stamford Bridge, and I think Chelsea will be too good for an inconsistent Norwich City.
With a forward line up expecting to be made up by Pedro, Willian and Michy Batshuayi, Chelsea will have enough quality to create chances and score goals here. They may even have the likes of Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata on the bench in case of difficulties and I do think Antonio Conte avoids the upset.
The League Cup Semi Final First Leg against Arsenal is played in a few days time and I do think that is the focus, but the players coming into the Chelsea side should be good enough to get the better of a Norwich City team who have been beaten by Wolves and Derby County here.
Those are the top two in the Championship and even a second string Chelsea team should have enough to win this one. In a Cup tie Norwich City could find themselves overcommitting to get back into it if they are behind and Chelsea may catch them on the counter as the game develops.
It makes me believe Chelsea covering the Asian Handicap is the right play here even with the chances expected.
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal Pick: There is no doubt at all that Arsene Wenger will continue with the same policy he has had for many years with the team selections in the Cup competitions. A few injuries may change that, while the likes of Laurent Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey could return to earn a few minutes to aid their recovery.
In general it will be a team with a few younger players out there and that may give Nottingham Forest some encouragement they can upset the Premier League club.
However those Cup teams have built a bit of chemistry and they have tended to be good enough to win ties like this one. A much changed Arsenal team won 0-4 at the City Ground in the League Cup last season and Wenger will believe his squad is good enough to win without the need for a Replay.
Nottingham Forest have been out of form in recent weeks and 3 losses in their last 4 home games won't have given the players much confidence. The search for a new manager continues too and so Nottingham Forest don't exactly feel like they are in a position to try and upset one of the leading teams from a Division above.
Playing a second string eleven will help, but Arsenal have a squad capable of coping with this fixture and also the League Cup Semi Final on Wednesday and I think The Gunners will be too good. Nottingham Forest have been conceding plenty of goals at home in recent weeks and I will look for Arsenal to win by more than a single goal margin.
MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bournemouth-Wigan Athletic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Fulham + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
The players in the English Leagues may be feeling the same with January a much less frantic month compared with December, while some of the bigger names will be given a couple of weeks off by not being asked to take part in the FA Cup Third Round weekend.
You have to almost second guess what managers are going to do no matter where their teams sit in the English Divisions, but you can begin to hazard a guess. It does make the Third Round a bit of a minefield to make predictions in, but that is what we have this weekend.
Next week I am planning to get down my latest 'United Corner' after a tough run for Manchester United, but one they are looking like coming out of the other side of.
I will also have a full update from the December Picks after a hectic time before a couple of different posts which will have picks from the League Cup Semi Final ties as well as the next round of Premier League fixtures to be played.
Liverpool v Everton Pick: The festive period can be very difficult for clubs in the Premier League and that has seen the Third Round of the FA Cup suffer with much changed line ups taking to the field.
That is likely to be the case for much of the Third Round, but the Merseyside derby could be a little different with both Liverpool and Everton likely to respect the history of the fixture.
Injury could be a bigger factor for Liverpool as both Philippe Coutinho and Mo Salah are expected to miss out, although rumours about Coutinho’s future with the club have resurfaced. A mistake by Nike saw an advert for Coutinho named Barcelona shirts to be ordered, although Jurgen Klopp has dismissed all suggestions the Brazilian is about to leave Liverpool.
With both Coutinho and Salah out, Liverpool do lose considerable threat in the final third, although both Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino are expected to play a part. The squad depth also showed in the 1-2 win at Burnley on New Year’s Day and I am not sure Everton can make as many changes and remain as effective as Liverpool can do.
It will be interesting to see what kind of team Sam Allardyce picks with recent years showing he is not the most disappointed with an early FA Cup exit. That is usually as he is focusing on keeping a team in the Premier League, but Everton look to have more about them and Allardyce has to be a little disappointed with the way the draw panned out.
One factor you can count on is Everton looking to be tough to beat and frustrate Liverpool. However they have just lost a little of their way in the last week and I think that may show up here as Liverpool get revenge for dropping two points against their rivals in December.
Those were dropped in controversial fashion and I think the game will mean more to the men in red, which I expect to make a difference. This time I don’t think Liverpool miss the host of chances they did when hosting Everton in December and I will back the home side to win and cover the Asian Handicap on their way through to the Fourth Round of the FA Cup.
Manchester United v Derby County Pick: Jose Mourinho will always point to his trophy record when he is under pressure and he would love to deliver another to Old Trafford to add to the League Cup and Europa League won in his first season in charge. With the Premier League gone, the Champions League and FA Cup are very important and I think the team choice will reflect that.
Strong teams were also picked when Manchester United hosted Reading and Wigan Athletic from the Championship last season. This game also has more in common with the Third Round success over Reading twelve months ago as they are facing another team flying high in the Championship and hoping to be visiting Old Trafford in a League fixture next season.
Derby County are in one of the top two positions for automatic promotion to the Premier League and the Championship is clearly the priority for Gary Rowett. That should mean he is making changes to freshen up his team and giving the key players a chance for a little rest and I do think Manchester United may take this more seriously than their visitors.
Of course playing at Old Trafford will be an inspiration for any player, but Jose Mourinho’s team have generally been very good against teams from this level. Derby County may take encouragement from Bristol City’s win over Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final a few weeks ago, but that game was at Ashton Gate and playing at Old Trafford is a different matter.
Recent results have not been the best for Manchester United at home, but Reading, Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion have been thumped here in Cup competitions over the last twelve months. All three teams were Championship clubs and all three conceded four times in those losses.
With the limited room to change the starting eleven, a strong Manchester United team can book their place in the Fourth Round without the need for a Replay. I think Derby County’s attention could turn away from the Cup and back towards the League which will suit them and I will back Manchester United to win by two or more goals on the evening.
Fleetwood Town v Leicester City Pick: The 'Jamie Vardy derby' has been selected for live television coverage on Saturday lunchtime in the FA Cup Third Round, but both sets of fans will be hoping Vardy is able to take part in this one.
The England international banged in 34 goals in only 42 appearances in all competitions for Fleetwood Town in his one season with the club in 2011/12 before he was sold on to Leicester City. The fans are almost certainly going to want to welcome back a cult hero, but Vardy was suffering with an issue which kept him out of the Leicester City win over Huddersfield Town on Monday.
Claude Puel won't let sentiment play a part in his selection, but I do think the Frenchman would know how important the Cup competitions are to the Leicester City owners. Picking up silverware, or at least trying to, is going to be key for a long-term future as manager of the club and so I would anticipate a strong team will be picked, albeit one with a few changes.
That team should be good enough to win at Highbury against a Fleetwood Town team who have been inconsistent at the League One level. They have lost their last 3 home games in a row which won't have improved the mood of the players, or the confidence, and I think Leicester City will find a way to wear them down.
Tactically it will be a little challenge for Leicester City at first as they won't be used to having as much of the ball as they are likely to have. The counter attack might not be as open as they are used to away from home either, but the quality of the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy should be able to unlock the Fleetwood Town backdoor.
Leicester City were upset 1-0 at then League One Millwall last season, but that came during a terrible time for Claudio Ranieri and the club fighting against relegation. Without those worries I would expect a more focused Leicester City to turn up at Highbury on Saturday lunch time and I do think the away side can win by a comfortable margin as they pick off Fleetwood Town once they take the lead.
Bolton Wanderers v Huddersfield Town Pick: When both teams are expected to make the kind of changes that Bolton Wanderers and Huddersfield Town are expected to do for the FA Cup Third Round fixture, it can be difficult to really get a feel for how the fixture will go. Chemistry can be an issue for players who are not used to playing with one another, but I also think Bolton Wanderers being at home is going to be very important for them.
In recent weeks Bolton Wanderers have found a vast improvement in results and performances which has carried them out of the bottom three of the Championship. That may give Phil Parkinson more reason to keep the momentum going after winning 3 of their last 4 League games, while the fans will sense there is an upset here to be had.
Huddersfield Town played weakened teams in the League Cup and David Wagner won't lose a lot of sleep if The Terriers were to be knocked out here. That doesn't mean his players will roll over as they will want to show the manager they are good enough to aid in the Premier League survival battle, but I think it would be a big surprise if Huddersfield Town don't feature a starting eleven with wholesale changes.
That certainly makes them look an unappealing price at close to odds on to win at the Macron Stadium despite the Division between the clubs. It does feel the motivation will be stronger from the home team who won't want to disappoint at home, and I think that could be enough to make the difference in a tight game where there is little between them.
I would limit stakes to a minimum in this one with some uncertainties about both teams, but backing Bolton Wanderers with a start on the Asian Handicap looks good enough to me.
Bournemouth v Wigan Athletic Pick: Usually you would say a Premier League club hosting one from League One is only going to end one way, but Wigan Athletic will head to Bournemouth with confidence of perhaps earning an upset. While there are likely to be changes for the home team, Wigan Athletic will pick a more familiar looking line up and are on a very good run of form to only improve the belief of the players.
Actually picking the upset would have been easier if this game was played in Wigan, but it will be difficult for the visitors to leave the Vitality Stadium with a win.
At least Wigan Athletic will believe after seeing some of the defensive performances that have been produced by Bournemouth in recent weeks, even if those have come at a much higher level than The Latics are competing at. They have a team who have been scoring plenty of goals, but the 5 game run without conceding a goal will be under threat against superior players.
Eddie Howe will also be prioritising the Premier League over the FA Cup, or so you would think after Bournemouth were dragged back towards the bottom three, and last season that resulted in a 3-0 loss at Millwall from League One. Granted that came away from home, but Wigan Athletic will look to that result and look to replicate it.
I did consider picking Wigan Athletic with the start on the Asian Handicap, but the layers aren't taking many chances with the size of the start the visitors are getting.
Instead I do think Wigan Athletic can play a part in a good game of football this weekend. The weather is improving on the south coast which means a cold, but relatively dry day which should mean the playing surface allows both teams to express themselves and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
I would expect Bournemouth to score at least once against a League One opponent, while their own defensive issues should mean Wigan Athletic have a few chances of their own. As long as the two teams find the finishes, this should be a game that has enough chances to provide three goals to be shared out.
Fulham v Southampton Pick: The FA Cup has a history of producing some big surprises, but those have begun to become less common in recent years as the top clubs have the strength in depth to cope with all the challenges they face.
However there are a few teams you would look at this week and wonder how much motivation there is for a long FA Cup run, particularly in the Premier League where relegation is a huge financial blow for clubs.
Southampton may be one of those teams vulnerable to the upset having blown a 1-0 lead to lose to Crystal Palace on Tuesday night and slip a little closer to the bottom three. Losing a game to a potential relegation rival is a blow, but losing one of those when leading is really tough to take.
The pressure is firmly on Mauricio Pellegrino, but the FA Cup is likely an unwanted distraction for a club who are going to put the Premier League fixtures above all others. Southampton have already been beaten by a club from the Championship in the League Cup, and now Southampton have to travel to a tough ground.
Playing a team in the form Fulham have been producing only increases the threat of the upset and this is a side who have won 4 straight at home and 3 of their last 4 overall. With chances and goals being produced, Fulham might have all the ingredients for the upset this week and I was tempted to back the home team at a big price to win outright.
However you can get decent odds quoted with a start on the Asian Handicap which provides a positive return even in case of a draw. A Southampton win would be an ‘upset’ as far as I am concerned, despite the prices having them down as favourites, and I will take Fulham with the start to earn a positive result.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: Both Manchester City and Burnley would likely have hoped for a better FA Cup Third Round draw considering the spot in the schedule this Round takes. Coming off a really difficult December, one even more so than usual, means both managers will take the opportunity to rotate their squads and home advantage should be key for Manchester City here.
It is tough to know exactly how many changes the two managers will make and this can also produce less than the usual intensity from the starting elevens. That isn't because of a lack of effort, but the lack of chemistry between new faces can make it tough to really get into fifth gear.
Manchester City may have a slight advantage having used mixed teams in the League Cup throughout this season and also in the Champions League final game at Shakhtar Donetsk. That means the players are a little more familiar with one another and Manchester City have a deep enough squad to continue winning their games even when changes are made.
Burnley won't roll over for them and I expect them to make it as difficult for Manchester City as they did when these teams met in the Premier League. It was a couple of late goals that made the scoreline look like a one sided win for Manchester City, but it was far closer than the final 3-0 result suggested.
I expect Burnley will look to make it difficult for Manchester City again and hope they can frustrate the home team into a mistake or two. That might mean another tough day for Manchester City, but they have shown they generally find a way to break teams down and Pep Guardiola won't want a Replay in this tie.
It feels like Manchester City will find a way to earn a narrow win here and I will back them to win a game where fewer than four goals are scored.
Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The live televised FA Cup tie on Saturday afternoon comes from East Anglia and Norwich City will be hoping they can earn the upset over a Chelsea side that could be making wholesale changes.
However Chelsea have plenty of players in the squad who are full internationals that need minutes and I expect Antonio Conte will be playing a team that is capable of winning here. They made plenty of changes in a 4-1 win over Peterborough United in the Third Round twelve months ago, although that game was at Stamford Bridge, and I think Chelsea will be too good for an inconsistent Norwich City.
With a forward line up expecting to be made up by Pedro, Willian and Michy Batshuayi, Chelsea will have enough quality to create chances and score goals here. They may even have the likes of Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata on the bench in case of difficulties and I do think Antonio Conte avoids the upset.
The League Cup Semi Final First Leg against Arsenal is played in a few days time and I do think that is the focus, but the players coming into the Chelsea side should be good enough to get the better of a Norwich City team who have been beaten by Wolves and Derby County here.
Those are the top two in the Championship and even a second string Chelsea team should have enough to win this one. In a Cup tie Norwich City could find themselves overcommitting to get back into it if they are behind and Chelsea may catch them on the counter as the game develops.
It makes me believe Chelsea covering the Asian Handicap is the right play here even with the chances expected.
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal Pick: There is no doubt at all that Arsene Wenger will continue with the same policy he has had for many years with the team selections in the Cup competitions. A few injuries may change that, while the likes of Laurent Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey could return to earn a few minutes to aid their recovery.
In general it will be a team with a few younger players out there and that may give Nottingham Forest some encouragement they can upset the Premier League club.
However those Cup teams have built a bit of chemistry and they have tended to be good enough to win ties like this one. A much changed Arsenal team won 0-4 at the City Ground in the League Cup last season and Wenger will believe his squad is good enough to win without the need for a Replay.
Nottingham Forest have been out of form in recent weeks and 3 losses in their last 4 home games won't have given the players much confidence. The search for a new manager continues too and so Nottingham Forest don't exactly feel like they are in a position to try and upset one of the leading teams from a Division above.
Playing a second string eleven will help, but Arsenal have a squad capable of coping with this fixture and also the League Cup Semi Final on Wednesday and I think The Gunners will be too good. Nottingham Forest have been conceding plenty of goals at home in recent weeks and I will look for Arsenal to win by more than a single goal margin.
MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bournemouth-Wigan Athletic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Fulham + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 5th)
It has been a tough start in the tennis season for my Tennis Picks with little luck attached to the selections so far. You have to accept it will be up and down, but I do want a better year than the last two as I have perhaps changed the way I have approached things, or, more likely, I have not evolved with the tennis seasons as much as I should have done.
I have still been solid enough at the Grand Slam events so I am looking forward to the start of the Australian Open, but I would love to end this week with a few winners just for a boost in confidence.
A bit more luck and that should be the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I still can't get my head around Grigor Dimitrov being Number 3 in the World Rankings and he will have a few supporters in the outright markets in Melbourne in a couple of weeks time.
The Bulgarian should have been given a boost in confidence after winning the biggest title of his career at the ATP Finals in London at the end of the 2017 season. That may have played a part in his three set win over John Millman in the Second Round in Brisbane, especially as Dimitrov had to come from a set down to win a second set tie-breaker before coming through the match in the decider.
I still question whether Dimitrov has the mindset to avoid the lulls in matches which can prove so costly, especially when being forced to play more tennis than is perhaps needed to win matches. While the serve is a good weapon, Dimitrov needs to make sure he is making the right shot selections behind it to keep Kyle Edmund under pressure in this match.
There will be big hopes that Edmund can see his career kick on in 2018 and he has played well this week to beat a couple of players that could be amongst those in the 'Next Gen' to take the ATP forward in the years ahead. Edmund has needed three sets to beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hyeon Chung, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the run going in this Quarter Final.
Edmund can cause problems for Dimitrov, but I think the latter's superior returning can prove to be a difference maker. It can be tough to trust Dimitrov not to throw in a sloppy game which could cost him a set and thus this cover of the games, but I think he should have enough success on the return to work his way to a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: You have got to give Aliaksandra Sasnovich a lot of credit for the way she has battled through to the biggest Semi Final of her career, but there has to be something that has been left out on the court.
Sasnovich has come through the Qualifiers into the main draw, and she has now won four straight matches while coming from a set down. That has to have taken something physically and mentally from Sasnovich and I think Anastasija Sevastova is good enough to break her down.
The Latvian is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings thanks to a special run at the US Open last September, and Sevastova is perhaps playing with more confidence thanks to that performance. She has won all three matches this week without dropping a set and I do think Sevastova is going to be a little too good for Sasnovich on the day.
I would expect the Sevastova return and movement around the court to be an issue for Sasnovich and perhaps there will be some issues mentally as the Belarusian has to try and dig deep and come back again. Sevastova doesn't possess a great serve which should give Sasnovich a chance, but I do think the higher Ranked player is the fresher one on the court and that should see her move through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: If Serena Williams is not playing at the Australian Open, Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina will be amongst the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the season. They can set an early marker in this Semi Final in Brisbane and this has all the makings of a very good match.
Both players have decent serves, although the edge is given to Pliskova on this surface. However it is Svitolina who is the better defensive player and will believe she can earn the edge in the rallies which move past six or seven strokes.
The problem for Svitolina against an opponent like Pliskova is that a slightly under par serving day will allow her opponent to play some first strike tennis. That has been the issue when they have met in previous matches, although it was Svitolina who snapped a five match losing run against Pliskova by beating her last season in Rome.
That match was on the clay courts which are the weakest of the surfaces for Pliskova and instead this feels like a match that may follow the pattern of twelve months ago when the Czech player beat Svitolina in straight sets in the Semi Final in Brisbane.
It will likely be closer than it was that day, but I like Pliskova to win and cover the games in this one.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a good start to the 2018 season for Gilles Simon who looked to have slipped irreversibly in 2017. He has almost dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I do wonder if Simon is going to be thinking about calling it a day, perhaps even as soon as after the French Open in June.
However performances like he has had this week will have offered the Frenchman some encouragement that he can rediscover his best form. Simon has yet to drop a set in his three wins in Pune and the return game has been working really well.
That will be challenged by Marin Cilic who has also won his matches without dropping a set in what has looked a weak field from the off. The Croatian would have expected to be playing in the Final this week having previously begun seasons with impressive results, although the one concern has to be the poor head to head with Simon.
It has come down to Simon being able to produce enough balls back in court and seeing Cilic break down as he tries to hit closer and closer to the lines. This may not be the case any more with Simon perhaps losing half a step around the court and Cilic should be able to take advantage of that with his heavier groundstrokes.
I do think Simon can cause some problems for Cilic if the Croatian is not at his best, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough this week to beat a player who is on the slide. The concern has to be the head to head and wondering if Simon is the kind of defensive player that can wear down Cilic, but I think the higher Ranked player is going to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: The tournament in Doha usually produces a pretty good field for the opening event of the season, but this year it is perhaps lacking the same type of star power. That may have contributed to the first Semi Final to be played on Friday as Andrey Rublev takes on Guido Pella.
Rublev is a player who is likely to be amongst the best in the years ahead, but there is still some work to do for the young Russian to reach his full potential. He has played well in his Quarter Final win over Borna Coric, but Rublev rode his luck to beat Fernando Verdasco and he will have to make sure he is not having too many fluctuations in his play if he is going to beat a veteran of the Tour like Pella.
The Argentinian is only 27 years old, and he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and looking to make a move into the top 50 at the end of this week. It has been a good week for Pella having dominated the last couple of matches he has played with strong returning numbers, but he was also a little fortunate to come through a match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas earlier this week.
The lefty serve should give Rublev a few issues to deal with and the Russian's own serve can be a little erratic as he continues to grow into his body.
Overall I do think Rublev is the better hard court player of the two and I think he can work his way to the win in this one. It won't always be easy with the way Pella has been returning in the last couple of Rounds, but I think Rublev can find a way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The second Semi Final in Doha is the one the local fans are likely to be looking forward to a little more as the two players competing are much more well known names to the casual fans.
The early season form of Dominic Thiem continues to be a positive for a player who has tended to run out of gas at the back end of seasons thanks to a poor schedule for the year. The points earned early in the year have kept Thiem inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and he is a player that can produce some very good tennis on the hard courts.
The Austrian also has won all three previous matches against the enigmatic Gael Monfils who is now on the back end of his career. It's funny to think Monfils has hit 31 years old now, but he has made a positive return to the Tour this week after injury curtailed his 2017 season at the end of the US Open.
Monfils will have to step up his game a little more when he faces Thiem in the Semi Final, but he has played well this week. The wins have come against players Monfils would have expected to beat, but Thiem has proven to be a tough player for him to compete with considering the power and relative consistency the latter can produce.
He is also the better shot selector of the two playing in this Semi Final and has a serve that can keep Monfils under pressure and I think that shows up here. It will be closer than the 6-3, 6-2 win Thiem managed over Monfils at Indian Wells last March, but I do think Thiem will win and find a way to cover this number.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
I have still been solid enough at the Grand Slam events so I am looking forward to the start of the Australian Open, but I would love to end this week with a few winners just for a boost in confidence.
A bit more luck and that should be the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I still can't get my head around Grigor Dimitrov being Number 3 in the World Rankings and he will have a few supporters in the outright markets in Melbourne in a couple of weeks time.
The Bulgarian should have been given a boost in confidence after winning the biggest title of his career at the ATP Finals in London at the end of the 2017 season. That may have played a part in his three set win over John Millman in the Second Round in Brisbane, especially as Dimitrov had to come from a set down to win a second set tie-breaker before coming through the match in the decider.
I still question whether Dimitrov has the mindset to avoid the lulls in matches which can prove so costly, especially when being forced to play more tennis than is perhaps needed to win matches. While the serve is a good weapon, Dimitrov needs to make sure he is making the right shot selections behind it to keep Kyle Edmund under pressure in this match.
There will be big hopes that Edmund can see his career kick on in 2018 and he has played well this week to beat a couple of players that could be amongst those in the 'Next Gen' to take the ATP forward in the years ahead. Edmund has needed three sets to beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hyeon Chung, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the run going in this Quarter Final.
Edmund can cause problems for Dimitrov, but I think the latter's superior returning can prove to be a difference maker. It can be tough to trust Dimitrov not to throw in a sloppy game which could cost him a set and thus this cover of the games, but I think he should have enough success on the return to work his way to a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: You have got to give Aliaksandra Sasnovich a lot of credit for the way she has battled through to the biggest Semi Final of her career, but there has to be something that has been left out on the court.
Sasnovich has come through the Qualifiers into the main draw, and she has now won four straight matches while coming from a set down. That has to have taken something physically and mentally from Sasnovich and I think Anastasija Sevastova is good enough to break her down.
The Latvian is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings thanks to a special run at the US Open last September, and Sevastova is perhaps playing with more confidence thanks to that performance. She has won all three matches this week without dropping a set and I do think Sevastova is going to be a little too good for Sasnovich on the day.
I would expect the Sevastova return and movement around the court to be an issue for Sasnovich and perhaps there will be some issues mentally as the Belarusian has to try and dig deep and come back again. Sevastova doesn't possess a great serve which should give Sasnovich a chance, but I do think the higher Ranked player is the fresher one on the court and that should see her move through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: If Serena Williams is not playing at the Australian Open, Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina will be amongst the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the season. They can set an early marker in this Semi Final in Brisbane and this has all the makings of a very good match.
Both players have decent serves, although the edge is given to Pliskova on this surface. However it is Svitolina who is the better defensive player and will believe she can earn the edge in the rallies which move past six or seven strokes.
The problem for Svitolina against an opponent like Pliskova is that a slightly under par serving day will allow her opponent to play some first strike tennis. That has been the issue when they have met in previous matches, although it was Svitolina who snapped a five match losing run against Pliskova by beating her last season in Rome.
That match was on the clay courts which are the weakest of the surfaces for Pliskova and instead this feels like a match that may follow the pattern of twelve months ago when the Czech player beat Svitolina in straight sets in the Semi Final in Brisbane.
It will likely be closer than it was that day, but I like Pliskova to win and cover the games in this one.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: It has been a good start to the 2018 season for Gilles Simon who looked to have slipped irreversibly in 2017. He has almost dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I do wonder if Simon is going to be thinking about calling it a day, perhaps even as soon as after the French Open in June.
However performances like he has had this week will have offered the Frenchman some encouragement that he can rediscover his best form. Simon has yet to drop a set in his three wins in Pune and the return game has been working really well.
That will be challenged by Marin Cilic who has also won his matches without dropping a set in what has looked a weak field from the off. The Croatian would have expected to be playing in the Final this week having previously begun seasons with impressive results, although the one concern has to be the poor head to head with Simon.
It has come down to Simon being able to produce enough balls back in court and seeing Cilic break down as he tries to hit closer and closer to the lines. This may not be the case any more with Simon perhaps losing half a step around the court and Cilic should be able to take advantage of that with his heavier groundstrokes.
I do think Simon can cause some problems for Cilic if the Croatian is not at his best, but I think Cilic has been playing well enough this week to beat a player who is on the slide. The concern has to be the head to head and wondering if Simon is the kind of defensive player that can wear down Cilic, but I think the higher Ranked player is going to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Guido Pella: The tournament in Doha usually produces a pretty good field for the opening event of the season, but this year it is perhaps lacking the same type of star power. That may have contributed to the first Semi Final to be played on Friday as Andrey Rublev takes on Guido Pella.
Rublev is a player who is likely to be amongst the best in the years ahead, but there is still some work to do for the young Russian to reach his full potential. He has played well in his Quarter Final win over Borna Coric, but Rublev rode his luck to beat Fernando Verdasco and he will have to make sure he is not having too many fluctuations in his play if he is going to beat a veteran of the Tour like Pella.
The Argentinian is only 27 years old, and he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and looking to make a move into the top 50 at the end of this week. It has been a good week for Pella having dominated the last couple of matches he has played with strong returning numbers, but he was also a little fortunate to come through a match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas earlier this week.
The lefty serve should give Rublev a few issues to deal with and the Russian's own serve can be a little erratic as he continues to grow into his body.
Overall I do think Rublev is the better hard court player of the two and I think he can work his way to the win in this one. It won't always be easy with the way Pella has been returning in the last couple of Rounds, but I think Rublev can find a way to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: The second Semi Final in Doha is the one the local fans are likely to be looking forward to a little more as the two players competing are much more well known names to the casual fans.
The early season form of Dominic Thiem continues to be a positive for a player who has tended to run out of gas at the back end of seasons thanks to a poor schedule for the year. The points earned early in the year have kept Thiem inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and he is a player that can produce some very good tennis on the hard courts.
The Austrian also has won all three previous matches against the enigmatic Gael Monfils who is now on the back end of his career. It's funny to think Monfils has hit 31 years old now, but he has made a positive return to the Tour this week after injury curtailed his 2017 season at the end of the US Open.
Monfils will have to step up his game a little more when he faces Thiem in the Semi Final, but he has played well this week. The wins have come against players Monfils would have expected to beat, but Thiem has proven to be a tough player for him to compete with considering the power and relative consistency the latter can produce.
He is also the better shot selector of the two playing in this Semi Final and has a serve that can keep Monfils under pressure and I think that shows up here. It will be closer than the 6-3, 6-2 win Thiem managed over Monfils at Indian Wells last March, but I do think Thiem will win and find a way to cover this number.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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