There was a real feeling of deflation at around 10pm on Tuesday evening once the Manchester United defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was confirmed, but I really do think that is how far Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has changed the mood at Old Trafford since taking over from Jose Mourinho.
I genuinely believed United could win the First Leg, although I was very much unsure about winning the tie as a whole and it does feel the Champions League race is run.
It is important for the players to remember that they can still make this a very successful season if they can win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premier League, especially when you think where the club were the day Mourinho was sacked.
The FA Cup is up this weekend with the Fifth Round taking centre stage while the Premier League clubs who are out of the competition get a chance to rest and recover for the big League games ahead. There are a number of lower League clubs hosting Premier League teams from Friday through to Sunday and the television companies will select those games for live coverage hoping to be able to find an upset or two. Finally it will be the turn of Chelsea and Manchester United who play on Monday evening just after the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round is made.
That does mean we are not having any Fantasy Selections this week, but those will be back in the thread for the Premier League games next weekend.
Queens Park Rangers v Watford Pick: The opening FA Cup Fifth Round tie comes from Loftus Road on Friday night as one of a number of selected games for live coverage. I am not sure Steve McClaren will be that pleased that his team are being asked to play on Friday considering Queens Park Rangers played in the League on Tuesday, but there isn't a lot the manager can do about that.
It is already a difficult enough challenge for Queens Park Rangers to take on a Premier League opponent, but Watford should be well rested having been in action last Saturday. However trying to second guess the manager is not easy and Javi Gracia making wholesale changes as he has done in the first couple of FA Cup ties will perhaps leave Watford a little vulnerable in this one.
Loftus Road is not an easy venue to play at and through the last few years where Queens Park Rangers have been struggling a number of big clubs have visited here without success. Those have come in League games as Queens Park Rangers have had miserable Cup records, but McClaren's men have won both FA Cup ties at home against Leeds United and Portsmouth and will believe they can make it a hat-trick on Friday.
Queens Park Rangers have scored a huge amount of goals at home over the last couple of months and they have managed at least two in 7 of their last 9 here in all competitions. That certainly makes them dangerous and confident of causing an upset and Watford will have to be on their toes to avoid that.
The Premier League team can be encouraged if they watched Queens Park Rangers concede four goals in home losses to Preston North End and Birmingham City in recent weeks. Watford have also been a team who have scored plenty of goals in away games since early December and I have a feeling we are going to be given an entertaining game on Friday evening.
I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous in this one, but Queens Park Rangers and Watford have shown they can score plenty of goals at home/away respectively. Neither has looked defensively sound either and I am surprised to see three or more goals being scored priced up at odds against.
My feeling is that Watford may just do enough to win here with fatigue perhaps seeing Queens Park Rangers tire after League exertions on Tuesday evening, but the Premier League club look plenty short at odds on to win. Backing goals looks a more appealing price all in all and that will be my selection from this Fifth Round tie.
Brighton v Derby County Pick: This FA Cup Fifth Round tie is a tough one to try and predict what the managers of both Brighton and Derby County will be thinking considering League matters are the priority for both Chris Hughton and Frank Lampard.
In recent weeks Brighton have slumped back towards the bottom three thanks to teams below them improving and the 1-3 home defeat to Burnley was a big blow to them. You would think they still have enough to avoid relegation, but Hughton will be aware of their slide and I do wonder if that comes into his thinking when selecting a team ahead of big Premier League games to come.
The bonus for the manager is the fact that Brighton are not due out again until a week on Tuesday because their League game with Chelsea is postponed next week as The Blues are playing in the League Cup Final. They've had plenty of time to get players ready for this one and it may mean Chris Hughton selects a strong team in a bid to rediscover the winning feeling which has been lost.
All season Frank Lampard has picked strong teams in the Cups for Derby County and he has been rewarded with some big performances. They have drawn 2-2 at both Manchester United and Southampton in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively and both times Derby County were able to win on penalties, while The Rams also pushed Chelsea in the League Cup at Stamford Bridge in what was an eventual 3-2 defeat.
The players won't be overawed by this occasion either, but Derby County have played a game during the week while Brighton were resting and have another big League game to come on Wednesday. That does potentially impact the team selection for the visitors and makes the prices look hard to oppose.
I was keen on selecting Derby County with a start on the Asian Handicap, but the schedule spot looks to favour Brighton who are also at home. What Derby County can do is give their hosts something to think about and the fact they have scored at least two goals at three Premier League grounds in the Cup already this season will give the fans belief that an upset can be created.
A lack of Brighton goals is a worry for Chris Hughton, but Derby County don't defend as well as they would like away from home and we may see goals in this one. The weather looks good for football this weekend and I do think the two teams can expose vulnerabilities the other has in defensive areas to make this another FA Cup Fifth Round tie that does have at least three goals shared out this weekend.
AFC Wimbledon v Millwall Pick: There won't be too many times clubs like AFC Wimbledon and Millwall will have the kind of opportunity to make the Quarter Final of the FA Cup as the one they are presented with this weekend.
Both sets of fans have seen their clubs have success in the FA Cup in the past and both upset Premier League clubs at home in the Fourth Round to earn their spot in this tie, but there will be a different feeling around this one. With just two wins between them and a stunning outing at Wembley Stadium the players will look to put their relegation battles in League One and the Championship respectively aside for this weekend.
In the last Round neither club were under pressure to win, but I do think AFC Wimbledon and Millwall players will have a different feeling for this one. Knowing they have a very winnable tie in front of them to reach a FA Cup Quarter Final is going to be the distraction they need to avoid to make sure each player is doing the job assigned to him and I do think this is a very close one to call.
The obvious favourite is Millwall considering they are twenty-nine places higher up the League standings than AFC Wimbledon. However you can't ignore how poorly Millwall have played away from home during this entire season and the results are not exactly the kind you would want to see from an odds on shot to win a game of football.
Millwall have perhaps been unfortunate in some of those games, but they have to be feeling the pressure a little more than AFC Wimbledon who will still believe they can use the underdog spirit to shock their higher League opponents. That pressure may have affected Millwall in a 1-0 loss to League One strugglers Rochdale in the FA Cup last season when Millwall were playing much higher up the Championship at that time and I do think they are vulnerable as the favourites.
It is hard to back an AFC Wimbledon team who have not scored enough goals and who have lost to the likes of Sunderland and Burton Albion since the win over West Ham United. Both of those clubs came down from the Championship and Millwall should have a clear edge in terms of quality in this one too.
However the situation of the fixture and AFC Wimbledon having nothing to lose gives them every chance of the upset. It can't be ignored that Millwall have struggled for away wins and the players know the weight of expectation is on them, while that 1-0 loss at Rochdale last season shows they may potentially struggle to cope with that.
Backing AFC Wimbledon with the start looks the way to go in this one as they can at least force Extra Time before they perhaps fade against a team from a higher Division. The first goal will be critical for them and if AFC Wimbledon get that I do think they will avoid defeat within the ninety minutes.
Newport County v Manchester City Pick: It might be a football game where eleven play eleven, but I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to see Manchester City as a huge favourite to beat Newport County and move through to the FA Cup Quarter Final for the second time under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.
The 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic twelve months ago has really been something that Guardiola has not forgotten and that has seen him pick strong teams in the domestic Cup competitions as they have made progression on four fronts. Heavy wins over the likes of Oxford United, Burton Albion and Rotherham United from the lower Leagues shows what Manchester City can do even when they make a few changes to the starting eleven and the squad depth is actually pretty scary.
In this one you can expect to see seasoned internationals like Danilo and Nicolas Otamendi playing in defensive areas, while Fabian Delph played at the World Cup last summer and also could come in. Both Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus are players who terrorise opponents in the Premier League so all the quality is with Manchester City and it is going to need to be a serious off day for them to lose here.
Newport County can't be completely dismissed though- a lot of the big Manchester City wins over lower League opponents have come at the Etihad Stadium where the playing surface is a carpet. Rodney Parade is far from that and it might just take a bit of time for the visitors to adjust to their surroundings.
The League Two club have beaten Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Leicester City in the FA Cup at home over the last thirteen months. Tottenham Hotspur needed an 82nd minute Harry Kane equaliser to force a Replay last season, but Manchester City don't have the same luxury with this tie needing to be completed on Saturday evening.
With that in mind I expect a slightly stronger team than the one that played and won 0-1 at Burton Albion in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg last month. Even that Manchester City team had the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero playing, but I don't think this team will be littered with the Academy players like that Second Leg line up was.
It should mean Manchester City win pretty easily on the day, but they are being asked to cover a very big handicap on a playing surface that is not easy to deal with. A Newport County goal can't be ruled out as they load the box and look for set pieces to try and disrupt Manchester City, but at the end of the day the Premier League leaders should be comfortable enough.
Comfortable means matching the wins at Oxford United and Burton Albion in the League Cup earlier this season. Manchester City won 0-3 and 0-1 on those days and I think this one is likely to be closer to the former scoreline. In the win at Oxford United, Manchester City scored twice in the final twelve minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline and I have a feeling something similar is going to happen here.
For the first 45 minutes I can see Newport County having the energy to chase their runners but I am expecting them to tire against a relentless Manchester City team. It's looking like a dry weekend so the pitch won't cut up too much and it feels Manchester City will wear down their opponents and then pull away in the second half so backing the second period to be the higher scoring half is my selection.
In the League Cup wins over Oxford United and Burton Albion at home, as well as the FA Cup wins over Rotherham United and Burnley, Manchester City scored more goals in the second half than the first. At just under odds on I think that happens here, while so looking at in-play markets may back a goal to be scored in the final ten minutes if the prices suit.
Bristol City v Wolves Pick: The first live FA Cup tie on Sunday afternoon comes from Ashton Gate and this has all the makings of a really interesting Fifth Round meeting between Bristol City and Wolves. Neither team has made it through to the latter stages of the FA Cup for a long time now and the players have to be smelling the opportunity of really making this a memorable season in the competition even if the priority for both may be finishing as high as possible in their respective Divisions.
Lee Johnson and Nuno Espirito Santo have six days to prepare their teams for their next League fixtures though and I think the managers will appreciate the chance in front of Bristol City and Wolves respectively.
Bristol City have been in fine form of late too with 9 straight wins in all competitions and they have been scoring plenty of goals at Ashton Gate. That will give them the belief they can find a way past Wolves having beaten Premier League Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this season and last season seeing off the likes of Stoke City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Ashton Gate in the League Cup on their way to the Semi Final.
That makes them dangerous and this is going to be a tough test for a Wolves team who may be pretty good defensively, but who don't earn a lot of clean sheets. Wolves needed to come from 2-0 down to earn a late draw with Shrewsbury Town in the initial FA Cup Fourth Round tie away from home, but they have won 0-2 at Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup and much will depend on what kind of team the manager selects.
Even a full strength Wolves team will be tested, but they have shown they can turn on the style away from home and picking a winner is not easy. The chances of seeing Extra Time can't be ignored, but Bristol City and Wolves tend to be involved in entertaining games over the last three seasons and that trend being continued suggests there will be a winner in normal time.
The last 5 between these clubs have all ended with at least three goals shared out and 2 of those have come at Ashton Gate. 3 of those 5 games have featured at least four goals and both teams have scored in each of those fixtures.
I do think both teams will score here and the 1-1 is perhaps the one scoreline that will let me down with my selection. However I think both teams will really want to go for this and it could mean an open, attacking game of football that features at least three or more goals shared out as Bristol City and Wolves have done in recent meetings against each other.
That's an odds against shot here and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Fifth Round tie.
Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace Pick: The second of the live televised games in the FA Cup on Sunday comes from the Keepmoat Stadium as Doncaster Rovers try and upset Premier League Crystal Palace. That is something the television companies will be looking for in this tie and the home team are in good enough form to believe they can bridge the gap to a Premier League opponent.
Being at home is the key for Doncaster Rovers who are unbeaten in 10 in front of their own fans in all competitions and they have won 8 of those games. Goals have been flowing at home with at least two scored in each of those 10 fixtures and Doncaster Rovers have something of a reputation of being able to upset higher League clubs over the last few years.
It won't be easy to knock off a Crystal Palace team who have been scoring a lot more goals away from home than they do at Selhurst Park. Part of the reason is that teams come onto their in front of their own fans and that has left spaces for a pacy front three to exploit, but it doesn't feel like Doncaster Rovers will be playing with that kind of attacking intent in mind.
Yes I do think Doncaster Rovers will get forward and try and rattle their Premier League opponents, but they will also respect the fact that they are not favourites and so will also be making sure they don't give too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack.
The mentality of the Crystal Palace players will be the key to how well they do on Sunday- if they are fully focused and respect Doncaster Rovers you would expect them to win, but Bristol City and Middlesbrough have knocked out The Eagles from domestic Cup competitions under Roy Hodgson. Both of those losses came away from home so Doncaster Rovers could come close to upsetting them too with the Premier League the priority for the former England manager.
Crystal Palace do have a week before they are back in League action so they can pick a strong team and this feels like yet another Cup tie this weekend that is going to see a lower League club contribute to a high-scoring game against a Premier League one. I did consider backing Doncaster Rovers with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap, but my overriding feeling is that is going to be a push as the visitors edge through by scoring the majority of the three goals shared out on Sunday.
I do think Doncaster Rovers will play their part, but they may also leave themselves open if they begin chasing the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Cup tie in England this weekend.
Swansea City v Brentford Pick: Both Swansea City and Brentford have to be looking at this FA Cup Fifth Round tie and really believing they have an excellent chance to not only reach the Quarter Final, but with the right draw could also play at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final.
A maximum of six Premier League clubs can make the Last Eight in the FA Cup this season and with the way the Third and Fourth Round have gone I don't think anyone will be surprised if a couple more than expected were to be beaten in the Fifth Round.
It would really open the door for the winner of this tie depending on the draw on Monday and I think that does create some pressure on the players. At least the Swansea City players have the experience of playing in the Quarter Final eleven months ago and I do believe home advantage is going to see them edge out Brentford in this one.
The Bees have improved away from home in the last couple of months, but they are still a team who struggle to produce wins on their travels. On the other hand Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5 games at the Liberty Stadium and Graham Potter has them playing some very good football here.
Swansea City have a good record against Brentford at home, but host them for the first time in over ten years. They did win 2-3 at Griffin Park to give them a slight mental advantage in this Fifth Round tie and I think Swansea City are going to edge it.
I will not be surprised if this is yet another high-scoring FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I give Swansea City enough of an edge to back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Home advantage should just see the pendulum swing in their favour and Swansea City's run of 3 wins in 4 games here can be extended to put their name into the draw for the Quarter Final.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw for the Fifth Round of the FA Cup was made there was only one tie that leaped off the page and it has been selected for live television coverage on Monday evening. A part of the problem was the Chelsea participation in the Europa League on Thursday evening, but that isn't going to make Manchester United fans feel any better having to travel to London for a late Monday night fixture.
The fans are secondary to the television money will come as no surprise to those who regularly attend matches, but there isn't much you can do about that now.
On the field the fixture looks to be coming at a better time for Chelsea than it does for Manchester United despite the fact the visitors have had two extra days to prepare for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie. Unfortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United are coming off a loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League which has really burst what had been a positive bubble for the club.
Bouncing back would have been much more likely if both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard were available, but muscle injuries suffered last Tuesday means they are unlikely to be risked here. It gives Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku another opportunity to impress after both were key to the win over Arsenal in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the Emirates Stadium last month, but neither has really been a big part of the Solskjaer plans and may be under pressure to deliver.
Chelsea may have played on Thursday and they may not be long off the embarrassing loss to Manchester City in the Premier League, but a win in Malmo would have just eased some tensions. They have also been in much better form at home in the last six weeks than on their travels and Chelsea have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge while scoring two or more goals in each of those.
The Blues also have a very strong recent record against Manchester United with 9 games unbeaten against them at Stamford Bridge. They've also won the last 4 FA Cup ties between the clubs including beating Manchester United 1-0 in each of the last two seasons (one Quarter Final and one Final). That has to give them belief they can make it a hat-trick here, but Manchester United can play their part and offer a threat on the counter attack as they did at the Emirates Stadium last month.
Both teams will be looking to get on the front foot and for me Chelsea look short considering they have shown signs of being a team that drop heads when they fall behind. If United were at full strength I would fancy them to win here, but the injuries may just have come at the wrong time.
I still expect a reaction from the players after the 0-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Manchester United should have their chances on the counter attack. With Chelsea being in better form at home this could be a decent FA Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy on Monday evening too, and I think it is going to be one that produces at least three goals.
In recent seasons games between Manchester United and Chelsea have been tight affairs, but the outlook and approach of the two managers suggests this one will be different. A Jose Mourinho led Manchester United team scored twice here back in October and Ole Gunner Solskjaer is going to want his team to get forward.
There remain serious defensive issues that can be exploited by Chelsea too though and I think both teams will hit at least one goal in this one. Neither manager will want to settle for Extra Time or penalties so I imagine a positive game develops through much of the evening and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.
MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Sporting Bet
Brighton-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor
AFC Wimbledon + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Newport County-Manchester City Second Half Highest Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Bristol City-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power
Doncaster Rovers-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Paddy Power
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Showing posts with label FA Cup Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 15 February 2019
Friday, 25 January 2019
Weekend Football Picks 2019 (January 25-28)
Honestly it doesn't feel right getting to the weekend football and not having either a Manchester United game to look forward to (I hate a Friday kick off, makes the weekend feel much longer than it should do) nor having too much Fantasy Football viewing to at least pass the time.
The Premier League is back on Tuesday so I will have my Fantasy choices from the games as well as my breakdown of how I think the fixtures will work out, while I am also working out how to change the way I produce the Fantasy selections.
That may not be entirely in place until later in the month in February, but it is something I am considering to make those selections more meaningful to readers.
The final weekend in January is reserved for the FA Cup Fourth Round ties and there are some big ones to be played. This is the last Round that will have any Replays as the FA have changed up the format and will remove Replays from the Fifth Round onwards to make sure teams are not being asked to really congest the remaining months of the season with additional fixtures, especially those still involved in European competition.
No will dispute the tie of the Round comes from the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal host Manchester United as a second team from the top six of the Premier League will be exiting the competition. Others may follow, but at least one is guaranteed to join Liverpool in having a free weekend in the middle of February which has been reserved for FA Cup Fifth Round ties.
The breakdown of the Fourth Round ties can be read below.
Bristol City v Bolton Wanderers Pick: At this stage of the competition the FA Cup is perhaps not the priority for managers up and down the country and that kind of blasé attitude about the competition has filtered down to teams in the Championship too.
Two of those clubs meet on Friday night in a game that will go under the radar because two of the top Premier League clubs meet in the tie of the Round at the same time.
Both Bristol City and Bolton Wanderers are prioritising the Championship for different reasons- Bristol City are on the brink of cracking into the top six, while Bolton Wanderers are fighting against relegation.
The visitors in this tie have a huge game in the League to come on Tuesday when Bolton Wanderers host Reading and I have to think Phil Parkinson is already preparing for that one. It may mean not risking key players, while Bristol City have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect and have won 5 in a row so Lee Johnson's motivation in this tie may be somewhat greater than the manager of the opponents in this fixture.
Bristol City also have eight days before they play again compared to Bolton Wanderers who play in a few days time and the home team have already beaten The Trotters here this month.
It was a dominant performance from Bristol City regardless of the narrow 2-1 win and I think they are likely going to dictate much of the play in this one too. Neither team will want to add to the congested fixture list by being forced into a Replay, but I don't think Bristol City will need one as they can win this fixture with at least two goals featured on the night.
Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw was made for the FA Cup Fourth Round the tie of the Round was the fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United who are the two most successful clubs in the history of this famous old trophy.
It could be a pivotal fixture for the two managers too as they look to put their clubs in a position to win some silverware, but it may also serve as something of a momentum builder in the race for the top four places in the Premier League.
There may not be points on the line, but Manchester United have won 7 straight under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and beating another top four rival away from home will be a big confidence boost. They did that at Tottenham Hotspur a couple of weeks ago and denting the confidence of Arsenal may just give Manchester United a leg up on those teams going into February.
Unai Emery may be thinking the same having seen his Arsenal team beat Chelsea last weekend and doing the same against Manchester United in the Cup may indicate his team are through a poor patch of form. It could also be a win that gives one of these teams the mental edge with the Premier League fixture between the two just six weeks away and I think there is enough on the line to think two strong teams will be picked.
The Arsenal line up is arguably easier to predict, but I would not be surprised if Manchester United make changes in the final third and allow Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez to both start. Those changes may have an impact in the type of speed and energy offered in the final third, but Marcus Rashford could need a rest and Solskjaer does want options in attacking areas with the fixtures coming thick and fast over the next month.
Neither defence offers a lot of encouragement and I do think this is going to develop into a fantastic, attacking Cup tie. Both teams will know how much more comfortable they are on the front foot and either team earning a clean sheet would be something of a surprise to me.
There were four goals shared out at Old Trafford when they met in December and the desire to avoid a Replay should mean both managers set their teams up to be very attack minded. Picking a winner is not easy because Manchester United look to have rounded into nice form, but Arsenal have to be respected as a team who have been much better at home than on their travels.
I would love to see United do this and continue the momentum into the next three League games ahead of the Champions League resumption against Paris Saint-Germain, but the best selection for the game looks to be backing at least three goals to be shared out on what is going to be a chilly London evening.
Accrington Stanley v Derby County Pick: The television companies may have picked this tie anticipating Southampton would be the opponent for League One Accrington Stanley, but it was Derby County who upset those plans by knocking out the Premier League club.
While the League may be the priority, Derby County have seen some strong teams named by Frank Lampard in the domestic Cup competitions and I would expect they are going to be good enough to win here.
Accrington Stanley did beat Ipswich Town from the Championship in the last Round, but Derby County are a much tougher test and the home team have not been in great form.
I expect they can cause some problems on a pitch that may not be the best and with the home support behind them, but I would expect the Derby County quality to come through in a win here. The home team may play a part though with the goals they have managed at the Wham Stadium so backing the higher League club to come through a game featuring two or more goals is the selection.
Brighton v West Brom Pick: The FA Cup can be a very difficult competition to work out especially in January when teams still feel Wembley is far enough away that they can rotate their squads to freshen things up.
I think both Brighton and West Brom may be thinking about League matters and making sure their squads are not being overly stretched ahead of a busy time of the season when you want to begin making a positive run to the finish line.
Home advantage should give Brighton an edge and they did reach the Quarter Final of the FA Cup under Chris Hughton last season. However that was the best run Brighton have had in the FA Cup since the 2011/12 season when they were beaten in the Fifth Round at Anfield.
Unlike their hosts, West Brom have had some real success in the FA Cup in recent times without quite making it to Wembley Stadium for the Semi Final. They will be looking for a fourth appearance in the Fifth Round in the last five seasons, but Darren Moore knows a strong Cup run won't keep him in his job if The Baggies miss out on promotion to the Premier League.
It may be a tight game, but I think Brighton may edge out their visitors with perhaps more motivation in the home team than I am giving them credit for. The game at Fulham on Tuesday is a huge one for Brighton and that is perhaps skewing my feelings somewhat, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this one knowing a draw will return half of the stake.
Doncaster Rovers v Oldham Athletic Pick: You have to imagine both Grant McCann and Pete Wild will be trying to take away the pressure from their Doncaster Rovers and Oldham Athletic players respectively by making sure they focus on this FA Cup Fourth Round tie rather than what could lie ahead.
With teams down to the final sixteen in the next Round the chances of landing a huge tie won't be lost on the Chairmen of either club and the financial rewards that could be in the offering.
Neither Doncaster Rovers or Oldham Athletic would have wanted to face the other at this stage of the FA Cup but they have to deal with the situation and this could be a very good Cup tie. Both teams have to want to take chances to win this tie and both have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals of late which suggests this will follow suit.
Games between these clubs at The Keepmoat Stadium have tended to be low-scoring in recent seasons with the last couple ending 1-1. However Doncaster Rovers have scored at least two goals in 7 straight home games in all competitions and Oldham Athletic have conceded that number in 3 of their last 5 away games.
On the other side Oldham Athletic have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 7 away games and Doncaster Rovers have conceded at least two goals in 2 of their last 3 here.
I have to say I do give the edge to Doncaster Rovers in the tie though and I fancy they will be able to progress at the first time of asking. Goals may be shared out in the game, but I will back Doncaster Rovers to win a fixture featuring two or more goals at odds against.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: The pitch may not have been to his liking, but Pep Guardiola has to be happy that the majority of his players came through unscathed against Burton Albion in their 0-1 win on Wednesday. With one Cup Final secured, the manager will turn his attention to guiding Manchester City ahead in the FA Cup when they host Burnley on Saturday.
There will be more changes to the Manchester City team but I think the manager is definitely going to go with a more recognisable eleven than the one that started at the Pirelli Stadium. A couple of the youngsters may keep their places, but I don't think Guardiola will want to risk having to play a Replay and Manchester City have proven to be far too good for Burnley in the last eighteen months.
In that time Burnley have visited the Etihad Stadium three times and in each visit they have conceded one more goal from three to four to five.
That will be a concern for Sean Dyche considering Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home games played in January, but ultimately the Cup is not an important competition for Burnley. Instead his focus will be on the second trip to Manchester coming up on Tuesday as Burnley fight and scratch for their Premier League lives and I imagine the team selection will reflect that.
If Manchester City pick a team anything like what I am expecting I can see them beating Burnley comfortably for the fourth time in a row at home. All three previous wins have come by margins of three or more goals and I am going to back Manchester City to reach that level again as they move through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup before turning their attention back to the Premier League with a game at Newcastle United to come on Tuesday.
Burnley will also look to turn back to the Premier League where they host Southampton in a huge game next Saturday. First they have to face the other club from Manchester, United, on Tuesday but Sean Dyche should have his key players well rested for that fixture.
Middlesbrough v Newport County Pick: This might not be the most important match in the season for Middlesbrough, but I don't think they can really afford to go into a run of facing West Brom, Leeds United and Sheffield United off an upset loss to a League Two side.
Any upset won't matter to Tony Pulis if Middlesbrough were to win those games, but it will be much tougher to explain away a poor run if some momentum is lost this weekend with a 5 game unbeaten run to protect.
In all honesty Middlesbrough should be too good for Newport County even if the home team were to make some changes to the line up to rest some key players. They have a week before they are playing again so Pulis can still pick a strong team and getting through to the FA Cup Fifth Round will still be something to aim for even if the League is the priority.
Middlesbrough have to be wary of a Newport County team that may be playing in League Two but who have beaten both Leeds United and Leicester City in the FA Cup over the last thirteen months. They even held Tottenham Hotspur, but all of those games were at home and Newport County have simply not been as productive away from Rodney Parade.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 on their travels including the last 4 in a row and those have come at a lower level than the one they are dealing with on Saturday.
Middlesbrough's lack of goals is a concern, but they did manage to knock five past Peterborough United from League One in the last Round and I think they will be a little too good for Newport County in this one too. With that in mind I will back Middlesbrough on the Asian Handicap to progress through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup which is played after those three big League games I mentioned will be played.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: Determining the motivation of managers is a big key to working out how some of these FA Cup Fourth Round ties are going to go and I have to believe Javi Gracia is much more interested in a deep Cup run than Rafa Benitez is.
The layers seem to have that in their minds too with Watford going to the North East as a considerable favourite to win this match. They are odds against, but Watford being favoured to win at Newcastle United is always a big deal and much of that has to be down to the teams selected by Newcastle United in the two FA Cup Third Round ties against Blackburn Rovers.
The Spaniard has made it clear that the Premier League is the priority and the squad is not able to cope with the Cup and League together. With two League games to be played in the next eight days, Benitez may be resting key players and giving some of the young players another chance to impress.
Beating Blackburn Rovers is one thing, but beating a motivated Watford is another altogether and I would imagine Gracia will be keen on overseeing a strong Cup run. Performances in the Premier League suggest Watford have more than enough to survive in the top flight so there is no reason to not have a go at the FA Cup.
Things are complicated by the midweek set of Premier League games to come, but Watford are not due out until Wednesday and points may not be as important as getting through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup. At least that may be the case for the next few days and I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap to earn their place in the Fifth Round.
I will back Watford on the 0 ball Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw because it is difficult to believe in them as the away favourite. However Watford have been scoring enough goals on their travels to make me believe they won't lose and I will look for them to have enough experience to edge out a much changed Newcastle United team.
Shrewsbury Town v Wolves Pick: Playing away from home in the FA Cup against a lower League club may offer some trepidation for Premier League players knowing how they will be received if they are upset in those fixtures.
Things have changed from years gone by though and these days you are less likely to be asked to play on tremendously poor pitches as you would have done before. This should make things more comfortable for a passing side like Wolves, although the temperatures in the United Kingdom have dipped and it could have hardened the Montgomery Waters Meadow playing surface.
It is still a huge ask for Sam Ricketts to mastermind an upset over the club he captained to the League One title in the 2013/14 season. The new manager has yet to have the kind of impact he would have liked with his Shrewsbury Town team and 1 win from the last 8 games in all competitions does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Shrewsbury Town also saw a long unbeaten run at home come to an end in their 0-3 defeat to Charlton Athletic last time out and I do think it will be very hard to contain their visitors.
Nuno Espirito Santo picked a strong team in the win over Liverpool in the Third Round and I do think the FA Cup is a realistic target for a Wolves team who have shown they can compete with the best in the Premier League. They are back in Premier League action during the week, but Wolves won't want to add to a February fixture list by taking chances with this fixture and having to play a Replay.
I imagine the team selection will reflect that and Wolves have shown they are very productive on their travels throughout this season. This is a team who does have goals in the side and I think they are going to be able to hit Shrewsbury Town on the break to complete the victory in this Fourth Round tie.
Wolves should be too good for a struggling League One team on what should be a decent playing surface and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Swansea City v Gillingham Pick: Both teams have important League games to come on Tuesday, but the chance to progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup has to excite both sets of players ahead of this weekend.
You can really earn a big tie once you reach the Fifth Round of the FA Cup, but I think it is a big ask of Gillingham to win at the ground of a higher League club who look to be rounding into some very good form.
Gillingham have been playing some decent stuff of their own and the results away from home have to be respected, but the standard of opponent does go up significantly in this one.
Last season Swansea City were playing in the Premier League and their comfortable win over Aston Villa earned their spot in the FA Cup Fourth Round. Getting into the Play Offs in the Championship is the target for Graham Potter and Swansea City and they do have that important game with Birmingham City to come on Tuesday, but they can keep the momentum going having won 3 of their last 4 games.
Beating Gillingham won't be straight-forward if there are too many changes made by Swansea City to their starting eleven, but the visitors have been struggling and can concede too many goals in a lower Division. That should show up here and I will back Swansea City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Everton Pick: This is a very interesting FA Cup Fourth Round tie and I have to admit I was taken aback at seeing Everton at odds on to win at the New Den considering the form they have been in. 4 losses from their last 5 away games is not ideal and while those have come in the Premier League I do have to factor in a loss of confidence into this fixture.
They are facing a Millwall team who have been much more inconsistent this season than twelve months ago, but who have remained tough to beat in front of their own fans. It happened the last time Millwall played here, but 2 losses in 10 games at home in all competitions shows this is going to be anything but a straight-forward day that odds on quotes would have you believe.
Everton certainly have the talent to win here and when they put their qualities together they can be very hard to play. Marco Silva must know he needs a strong finish to the season if he wants to remain in charge of the club and so there is real pressure on him to extract a performance from his players on a difficult ground.
Scoring enough goals has been something of a problem for Everton and this is a Millwall side who beat Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester City a couple of years ago on a fabulous Cup run through to the Quarter Final. Fulham did win here in the League Cup earlier this season, but that was a Millwall team that started the season quite poorly and I do think the confidence will be much higher for an upset in this one.
I am not quite sure they have enough to do that, but Millwall can certainly make a game of this and they have the ability to at least earn a Replay in ten days time. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go in a fixture where Everton look very, very short.
AFC Wimbledon v West Ham United Pick: The last FA Cup Fourth Round tie to be played on Saturday comes from the Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium as AFC Wimbledon look to do a little better when they host Premier League West Ham United for the second time this season.
These teams met in the League Cup and AFC Wimbledon actually took the lead, but a sending off inside the first 20 minutes left them in a very difficult position and eventually West Ham United took over.
This is a big FA Cup tie for West Ham United with fans believing they have every chance of a deep run in the competition. The Premier League looks to be in good nick for The Hammers and so Manuel Pellegrini will be expected to pick a side that is good enough to progress from this Fourth Round tie.
I do think Pellegrini will make changes though and West Ham United are a very hard team to get a read on with inconsistent results a feature of the team over the last month. However there is enough class in the final third to give them the edge over an AFC Wimbledon team propping up the rest of League One and in a real fight to avoid their first club relegation.
When they met in the League Cup West Ham United were in a poor run of form and confidence was not great, but they should be much better now. Having won here already I would expect The Hammers to be able to frank that win with another on Saturday and I think they won't be caught cold as they were in the League Cup.
A stronger West Ham United team should be picked and AFC Wimbledon have suffered back to back heavy home losses in League One. Heads could drop if they were to fall behind in this one and I will back West Ham United to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: For 45 minutes Tottenham Hotspur looked lost on Thursday as they found themselves 2-0 down at Stamford Bridge, but they were much better in the second half and perhaps unfortunate to lose.
The squad is completely stretched at the moment and while Mauricio Pochettino would want to avoid a second Cup exit in a matter of days, he has to find a way to freshen things up.
Three key forwards are missing and Ben Davies is the latest to join a growing injury list. With just a few days before having to return to Premier League action with two games to be played in that competition over the next eight days, Pochettino has some big decisions to make.
The same can be said for Crystal Palace and Roy Hodgson who will pay a lot of respect to the FA Cup, but will also recognise that League games against Southampton and Fulham are vital to keeping his club in the Premier League for another season.
In the last Round Hodgson could afford to make changes against a League Two opponent, but he may be under more pressure to produce a stronger team with the feeling that Tottenham Hotspur are there for the taking.
It makes this a very difficult game to call, but what has been noticeable in Crystal Palace games hosting Tottenham Hotspur is the lack of goals. In a lot of Crystal Palace games at Selhurst Park that has been the case this season, while Tottenham Hotspur are not the same without three of their key attacking players.
A single goal could be enough to decide this tie one way or the other and I am going to back less than three goals to be produced in this Fourth Round tie.
Chelsea v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The 6pm kick off time is a very strange one for a Sunday in England and it really doesn't account for the Sheffield Wednesday fans travelling to West London in huge numbers.
While I try and get over my utter 'surprise' that match going fans are ignored, the fixture on the pitch looks like one that Chelsea should be able to win without too many issues.
Clouding things is the fact that a strong starting eleven was needed to see off Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg on Thursday and the rotations that are going to be made should mean Chelsea are more vulnerable than they would usually be.
However Sheffield Wednesday are a team who have been struggling for consistency all season and are still waiting for Steve Bruce to come in and officially take over as manager. They have been in decent form of late, but this is a big step up for the players and Sheffield Wednesday have been a little weaker when playing away from home.
Last time out in the Championship they were swatted aside by in-form Hull City, but the changes made to the Chelsea team should make this a closer tie.
It is certainly something the layers are not quite factoring in and I think Sheffield Wednesday can be backed with a full two goal start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bristol City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Fred
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 Bet Victor
Derby County & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Doncaster Rovers & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Middlesbrough - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Swansea City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Millwall + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet
Sheffield Wednesday + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
The Premier League is back on Tuesday so I will have my Fantasy choices from the games as well as my breakdown of how I think the fixtures will work out, while I am also working out how to change the way I produce the Fantasy selections.
That may not be entirely in place until later in the month in February, but it is something I am considering to make those selections more meaningful to readers.
The final weekend in January is reserved for the FA Cup Fourth Round ties and there are some big ones to be played. This is the last Round that will have any Replays as the FA have changed up the format and will remove Replays from the Fifth Round onwards to make sure teams are not being asked to really congest the remaining months of the season with additional fixtures, especially those still involved in European competition.
No will dispute the tie of the Round comes from the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal host Manchester United as a second team from the top six of the Premier League will be exiting the competition. Others may follow, but at least one is guaranteed to join Liverpool in having a free weekend in the middle of February which has been reserved for FA Cup Fifth Round ties.
The breakdown of the Fourth Round ties can be read below.
Bristol City v Bolton Wanderers Pick: At this stage of the competition the FA Cup is perhaps not the priority for managers up and down the country and that kind of blasé attitude about the competition has filtered down to teams in the Championship too.
Two of those clubs meet on Friday night in a game that will go under the radar because two of the top Premier League clubs meet in the tie of the Round at the same time.
Both Bristol City and Bolton Wanderers are prioritising the Championship for different reasons- Bristol City are on the brink of cracking into the top six, while Bolton Wanderers are fighting against relegation.
The visitors in this tie have a huge game in the League to come on Tuesday when Bolton Wanderers host Reading and I have to think Phil Parkinson is already preparing for that one. It may mean not risking key players, while Bristol City have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect and have won 5 in a row so Lee Johnson's motivation in this tie may be somewhat greater than the manager of the opponents in this fixture.
Bristol City also have eight days before they play again compared to Bolton Wanderers who play in a few days time and the home team have already beaten The Trotters here this month.
It was a dominant performance from Bristol City regardless of the narrow 2-1 win and I think they are likely going to dictate much of the play in this one too. Neither team will want to add to the congested fixture list by being forced into a Replay, but I don't think Bristol City will need one as they can win this fixture with at least two goals featured on the night.
Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw was made for the FA Cup Fourth Round the tie of the Round was the fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United who are the two most successful clubs in the history of this famous old trophy.
It could be a pivotal fixture for the two managers too as they look to put their clubs in a position to win some silverware, but it may also serve as something of a momentum builder in the race for the top four places in the Premier League.
There may not be points on the line, but Manchester United have won 7 straight under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and beating another top four rival away from home will be a big confidence boost. They did that at Tottenham Hotspur a couple of weeks ago and denting the confidence of Arsenal may just give Manchester United a leg up on those teams going into February.
Unai Emery may be thinking the same having seen his Arsenal team beat Chelsea last weekend and doing the same against Manchester United in the Cup may indicate his team are through a poor patch of form. It could also be a win that gives one of these teams the mental edge with the Premier League fixture between the two just six weeks away and I think there is enough on the line to think two strong teams will be picked.
The Arsenal line up is arguably easier to predict, but I would not be surprised if Manchester United make changes in the final third and allow Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez to both start. Those changes may have an impact in the type of speed and energy offered in the final third, but Marcus Rashford could need a rest and Solskjaer does want options in attacking areas with the fixtures coming thick and fast over the next month.
Neither defence offers a lot of encouragement and I do think this is going to develop into a fantastic, attacking Cup tie. Both teams will know how much more comfortable they are on the front foot and either team earning a clean sheet would be something of a surprise to me.
There were four goals shared out at Old Trafford when they met in December and the desire to avoid a Replay should mean both managers set their teams up to be very attack minded. Picking a winner is not easy because Manchester United look to have rounded into nice form, but Arsenal have to be respected as a team who have been much better at home than on their travels.
I would love to see United do this and continue the momentum into the next three League games ahead of the Champions League resumption against Paris Saint-Germain, but the best selection for the game looks to be backing at least three goals to be shared out on what is going to be a chilly London evening.
Accrington Stanley v Derby County Pick: The television companies may have picked this tie anticipating Southampton would be the opponent for League One Accrington Stanley, but it was Derby County who upset those plans by knocking out the Premier League club.
While the League may be the priority, Derby County have seen some strong teams named by Frank Lampard in the domestic Cup competitions and I would expect they are going to be good enough to win here.
Accrington Stanley did beat Ipswich Town from the Championship in the last Round, but Derby County are a much tougher test and the home team have not been in great form.
I expect they can cause some problems on a pitch that may not be the best and with the home support behind them, but I would expect the Derby County quality to come through in a win here. The home team may play a part though with the goals they have managed at the Wham Stadium so backing the higher League club to come through a game featuring two or more goals is the selection.
Brighton v West Brom Pick: The FA Cup can be a very difficult competition to work out especially in January when teams still feel Wembley is far enough away that they can rotate their squads to freshen things up.
I think both Brighton and West Brom may be thinking about League matters and making sure their squads are not being overly stretched ahead of a busy time of the season when you want to begin making a positive run to the finish line.
Home advantage should give Brighton an edge and they did reach the Quarter Final of the FA Cup under Chris Hughton last season. However that was the best run Brighton have had in the FA Cup since the 2011/12 season when they were beaten in the Fifth Round at Anfield.
Unlike their hosts, West Brom have had some real success in the FA Cup in recent times without quite making it to Wembley Stadium for the Semi Final. They will be looking for a fourth appearance in the Fifth Round in the last five seasons, but Darren Moore knows a strong Cup run won't keep him in his job if The Baggies miss out on promotion to the Premier League.
It may be a tight game, but I think Brighton may edge out their visitors with perhaps more motivation in the home team than I am giving them credit for. The game at Fulham on Tuesday is a huge one for Brighton and that is perhaps skewing my feelings somewhat, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this one knowing a draw will return half of the stake.
Doncaster Rovers v Oldham Athletic Pick: You have to imagine both Grant McCann and Pete Wild will be trying to take away the pressure from their Doncaster Rovers and Oldham Athletic players respectively by making sure they focus on this FA Cup Fourth Round tie rather than what could lie ahead.
With teams down to the final sixteen in the next Round the chances of landing a huge tie won't be lost on the Chairmen of either club and the financial rewards that could be in the offering.
Neither Doncaster Rovers or Oldham Athletic would have wanted to face the other at this stage of the FA Cup but they have to deal with the situation and this could be a very good Cup tie. Both teams have to want to take chances to win this tie and both have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals of late which suggests this will follow suit.
Games between these clubs at The Keepmoat Stadium have tended to be low-scoring in recent seasons with the last couple ending 1-1. However Doncaster Rovers have scored at least two goals in 7 straight home games in all competitions and Oldham Athletic have conceded that number in 3 of their last 5 away games.
On the other side Oldham Athletic have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 7 away games and Doncaster Rovers have conceded at least two goals in 2 of their last 3 here.
I have to say I do give the edge to Doncaster Rovers in the tie though and I fancy they will be able to progress at the first time of asking. Goals may be shared out in the game, but I will back Doncaster Rovers to win a fixture featuring two or more goals at odds against.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: The pitch may not have been to his liking, but Pep Guardiola has to be happy that the majority of his players came through unscathed against Burton Albion in their 0-1 win on Wednesday. With one Cup Final secured, the manager will turn his attention to guiding Manchester City ahead in the FA Cup when they host Burnley on Saturday.
There will be more changes to the Manchester City team but I think the manager is definitely going to go with a more recognisable eleven than the one that started at the Pirelli Stadium. A couple of the youngsters may keep their places, but I don't think Guardiola will want to risk having to play a Replay and Manchester City have proven to be far too good for Burnley in the last eighteen months.
In that time Burnley have visited the Etihad Stadium three times and in each visit they have conceded one more goal from three to four to five.
That will be a concern for Sean Dyche considering Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home games played in January, but ultimately the Cup is not an important competition for Burnley. Instead his focus will be on the second trip to Manchester coming up on Tuesday as Burnley fight and scratch for their Premier League lives and I imagine the team selection will reflect that.
If Manchester City pick a team anything like what I am expecting I can see them beating Burnley comfortably for the fourth time in a row at home. All three previous wins have come by margins of three or more goals and I am going to back Manchester City to reach that level again as they move through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup before turning their attention back to the Premier League with a game at Newcastle United to come on Tuesday.
Burnley will also look to turn back to the Premier League where they host Southampton in a huge game next Saturday. First they have to face the other club from Manchester, United, on Tuesday but Sean Dyche should have his key players well rested for that fixture.
Middlesbrough v Newport County Pick: This might not be the most important match in the season for Middlesbrough, but I don't think they can really afford to go into a run of facing West Brom, Leeds United and Sheffield United off an upset loss to a League Two side.
Any upset won't matter to Tony Pulis if Middlesbrough were to win those games, but it will be much tougher to explain away a poor run if some momentum is lost this weekend with a 5 game unbeaten run to protect.
In all honesty Middlesbrough should be too good for Newport County even if the home team were to make some changes to the line up to rest some key players. They have a week before they are playing again so Pulis can still pick a strong team and getting through to the FA Cup Fifth Round will still be something to aim for even if the League is the priority.
Middlesbrough have to be wary of a Newport County team that may be playing in League Two but who have beaten both Leeds United and Leicester City in the FA Cup over the last thirteen months. They even held Tottenham Hotspur, but all of those games were at home and Newport County have simply not been as productive away from Rodney Parade.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 on their travels including the last 4 in a row and those have come at a lower level than the one they are dealing with on Saturday.
Middlesbrough's lack of goals is a concern, but they did manage to knock five past Peterborough United from League One in the last Round and I think they will be a little too good for Newport County in this one too. With that in mind I will back Middlesbrough on the Asian Handicap to progress through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup which is played after those three big League games I mentioned will be played.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: Determining the motivation of managers is a big key to working out how some of these FA Cup Fourth Round ties are going to go and I have to believe Javi Gracia is much more interested in a deep Cup run than Rafa Benitez is.
The layers seem to have that in their minds too with Watford going to the North East as a considerable favourite to win this match. They are odds against, but Watford being favoured to win at Newcastle United is always a big deal and much of that has to be down to the teams selected by Newcastle United in the two FA Cup Third Round ties against Blackburn Rovers.
The Spaniard has made it clear that the Premier League is the priority and the squad is not able to cope with the Cup and League together. With two League games to be played in the next eight days, Benitez may be resting key players and giving some of the young players another chance to impress.
Beating Blackburn Rovers is one thing, but beating a motivated Watford is another altogether and I would imagine Gracia will be keen on overseeing a strong Cup run. Performances in the Premier League suggest Watford have more than enough to survive in the top flight so there is no reason to not have a go at the FA Cup.
Things are complicated by the midweek set of Premier League games to come, but Watford are not due out until Wednesday and points may not be as important as getting through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup. At least that may be the case for the next few days and I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap to earn their place in the Fifth Round.
I will back Watford on the 0 ball Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw because it is difficult to believe in them as the away favourite. However Watford have been scoring enough goals on their travels to make me believe they won't lose and I will look for them to have enough experience to edge out a much changed Newcastle United team.
Shrewsbury Town v Wolves Pick: Playing away from home in the FA Cup against a lower League club may offer some trepidation for Premier League players knowing how they will be received if they are upset in those fixtures.
Things have changed from years gone by though and these days you are less likely to be asked to play on tremendously poor pitches as you would have done before. This should make things more comfortable for a passing side like Wolves, although the temperatures in the United Kingdom have dipped and it could have hardened the Montgomery Waters Meadow playing surface.
It is still a huge ask for Sam Ricketts to mastermind an upset over the club he captained to the League One title in the 2013/14 season. The new manager has yet to have the kind of impact he would have liked with his Shrewsbury Town team and 1 win from the last 8 games in all competitions does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Shrewsbury Town also saw a long unbeaten run at home come to an end in their 0-3 defeat to Charlton Athletic last time out and I do think it will be very hard to contain their visitors.
Nuno Espirito Santo picked a strong team in the win over Liverpool in the Third Round and I do think the FA Cup is a realistic target for a Wolves team who have shown they can compete with the best in the Premier League. They are back in Premier League action during the week, but Wolves won't want to add to a February fixture list by taking chances with this fixture and having to play a Replay.
I imagine the team selection will reflect that and Wolves have shown they are very productive on their travels throughout this season. This is a team who does have goals in the side and I think they are going to be able to hit Shrewsbury Town on the break to complete the victory in this Fourth Round tie.
Wolves should be too good for a struggling League One team on what should be a decent playing surface and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Swansea City v Gillingham Pick: Both teams have important League games to come on Tuesday, but the chance to progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup has to excite both sets of players ahead of this weekend.
You can really earn a big tie once you reach the Fifth Round of the FA Cup, but I think it is a big ask of Gillingham to win at the ground of a higher League club who look to be rounding into some very good form.
Gillingham have been playing some decent stuff of their own and the results away from home have to be respected, but the standard of opponent does go up significantly in this one.
Last season Swansea City were playing in the Premier League and their comfortable win over Aston Villa earned their spot in the FA Cup Fourth Round. Getting into the Play Offs in the Championship is the target for Graham Potter and Swansea City and they do have that important game with Birmingham City to come on Tuesday, but they can keep the momentum going having won 3 of their last 4 games.
Beating Gillingham won't be straight-forward if there are too many changes made by Swansea City to their starting eleven, but the visitors have been struggling and can concede too many goals in a lower Division. That should show up here and I will back Swansea City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Everton Pick: This is a very interesting FA Cup Fourth Round tie and I have to admit I was taken aback at seeing Everton at odds on to win at the New Den considering the form they have been in. 4 losses from their last 5 away games is not ideal and while those have come in the Premier League I do have to factor in a loss of confidence into this fixture.
They are facing a Millwall team who have been much more inconsistent this season than twelve months ago, but who have remained tough to beat in front of their own fans. It happened the last time Millwall played here, but 2 losses in 10 games at home in all competitions shows this is going to be anything but a straight-forward day that odds on quotes would have you believe.
Everton certainly have the talent to win here and when they put their qualities together they can be very hard to play. Marco Silva must know he needs a strong finish to the season if he wants to remain in charge of the club and so there is real pressure on him to extract a performance from his players on a difficult ground.
Scoring enough goals has been something of a problem for Everton and this is a Millwall side who beat Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester City a couple of years ago on a fabulous Cup run through to the Quarter Final. Fulham did win here in the League Cup earlier this season, but that was a Millwall team that started the season quite poorly and I do think the confidence will be much higher for an upset in this one.
I am not quite sure they have enough to do that, but Millwall can certainly make a game of this and they have the ability to at least earn a Replay in ten days time. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go in a fixture where Everton look very, very short.
AFC Wimbledon v West Ham United Pick: The last FA Cup Fourth Round tie to be played on Saturday comes from the Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium as AFC Wimbledon look to do a little better when they host Premier League West Ham United for the second time this season.
These teams met in the League Cup and AFC Wimbledon actually took the lead, but a sending off inside the first 20 minutes left them in a very difficult position and eventually West Ham United took over.
This is a big FA Cup tie for West Ham United with fans believing they have every chance of a deep run in the competition. The Premier League looks to be in good nick for The Hammers and so Manuel Pellegrini will be expected to pick a side that is good enough to progress from this Fourth Round tie.
I do think Pellegrini will make changes though and West Ham United are a very hard team to get a read on with inconsistent results a feature of the team over the last month. However there is enough class in the final third to give them the edge over an AFC Wimbledon team propping up the rest of League One and in a real fight to avoid their first club relegation.
When they met in the League Cup West Ham United were in a poor run of form and confidence was not great, but they should be much better now. Having won here already I would expect The Hammers to be able to frank that win with another on Saturday and I think they won't be caught cold as they were in the League Cup.
A stronger West Ham United team should be picked and AFC Wimbledon have suffered back to back heavy home losses in League One. Heads could drop if they were to fall behind in this one and I will back West Ham United to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: For 45 minutes Tottenham Hotspur looked lost on Thursday as they found themselves 2-0 down at Stamford Bridge, but they were much better in the second half and perhaps unfortunate to lose.
The squad is completely stretched at the moment and while Mauricio Pochettino would want to avoid a second Cup exit in a matter of days, he has to find a way to freshen things up.
Three key forwards are missing and Ben Davies is the latest to join a growing injury list. With just a few days before having to return to Premier League action with two games to be played in that competition over the next eight days, Pochettino has some big decisions to make.
The same can be said for Crystal Palace and Roy Hodgson who will pay a lot of respect to the FA Cup, but will also recognise that League games against Southampton and Fulham are vital to keeping his club in the Premier League for another season.
In the last Round Hodgson could afford to make changes against a League Two opponent, but he may be under more pressure to produce a stronger team with the feeling that Tottenham Hotspur are there for the taking.
It makes this a very difficult game to call, but what has been noticeable in Crystal Palace games hosting Tottenham Hotspur is the lack of goals. In a lot of Crystal Palace games at Selhurst Park that has been the case this season, while Tottenham Hotspur are not the same without three of their key attacking players.
A single goal could be enough to decide this tie one way or the other and I am going to back less than three goals to be produced in this Fourth Round tie.
Chelsea v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The 6pm kick off time is a very strange one for a Sunday in England and it really doesn't account for the Sheffield Wednesday fans travelling to West London in huge numbers.
While I try and get over my utter 'surprise' that match going fans are ignored, the fixture on the pitch looks like one that Chelsea should be able to win without too many issues.
Clouding things is the fact that a strong starting eleven was needed to see off Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg on Thursday and the rotations that are going to be made should mean Chelsea are more vulnerable than they would usually be.
However Sheffield Wednesday are a team who have been struggling for consistency all season and are still waiting for Steve Bruce to come in and officially take over as manager. They have been in decent form of late, but this is a big step up for the players and Sheffield Wednesday have been a little weaker when playing away from home.
Last time out in the Championship they were swatted aside by in-form Hull City, but the changes made to the Chelsea team should make this a closer tie.
It is certainly something the layers are not quite factoring in and I think Sheffield Wednesday can be backed with a full two goal start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bristol City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Fred
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 Bet Victor
Derby County & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Doncaster Rovers & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Middlesbrough - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Swansea City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Millwall + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet
Sheffield Wednesday + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Friday, 18 May 2018
FA Cup Final 2018 Pick- Chelsea v Manchester United (May 19th)
Chelsea v Manchester United FA Cup Final 2018
Expected Chelsea Team: Courtois, Azpilicueta, Cahill, Rudiger, Moses, Alonso, Bakayoko, Fabregas, Kante, Hazard and Giroud
Expected Manchester United Team: De Gea, Valencia, Young, Smalling, Jones, Matic, Pogba, Herrera, Rashford, Lingard, Alexis Sanchez
Neither team will be completely satisfied with the performances in the Premier League, but Manchester United should be in a better place than Chelsea who have missed out on Champions League Football for the coming season.
Rumours continue to persist that Antonio Conte will be relieved of his position as manager of Chelsea in the coming days and I do think that has an impact on the preparation for the Cup Final.
It is almost in stark contrast to last season when Chelsea went into the FA Cup Final as the strong favourites to beat Arsenal and complete the Double after winning the Premier League a few days earlier. This time they come in with the questions and face a team who have achieved some of their goals and perhaps feeling in a better place all around.
However recent Manchester United performances have been under-par and it is hard to turn the switch to produce a much better display. In saying that Manchester United have raised their game against the best teams and you can't ignore the fact they have beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal since their 2-0 loss here against Spurs in the Premier League at the end of January and 2 of those wins have come away from Old Trafford.
The likely absence of Romelu Lukaku is a blow as he has been a very important part of the team with the way Mourinho sets Manchester United up. His participation is touch and go, but I think Lukaku will be a bench player at best and Mourinho may decide to play with Alexis Sanchez as his most forward player in this one, although he will be able to interchange with Marcus Rashford who scored last week which may earn him the start.
Manchester United have shown they can score against the top teams in those recent wins and they have managed at least two goals in each of those. They won the FA Cup in 2016 so the majority of the squad will know the feeling of doing that as they snapped Manchester United's wait for a success in this competition which had dragged back to 2004.
On the other hand Chelsea know what it is like to lose a Final having done that just twelve months ago. This is a club who had won four of six FA Cups between 2007 and 2012, but who have not won the competition since then and the rumours about Antonio Conte's future will not be helping.
Chelsea did beat Liverpool a couple of weeks ago, but they had a poor recent record against the top clubs in 2018 prior to that having lost to Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur. The side have not found their best away from Stamford Bridge for large portions of this calendar year too and the negative display at Newcastle United last weekend is a big worry.
There is clearly some quality in the starting line up for Chelsea and they played well at Old Trafford for half an hour with the game turning on Manchester United's equaliser. I think they will pose problems and I expect the players to produce a much bigger performance than last weekend when they perhaps knew their chances of a top four finish was already beyond them.
A close game should develop, but I don't think it will be one without chances for both teams and the layers are taking a chance with the prices for at least three goals to be shared out.
4 of the last 6 FA Cup Finals have ended with at least three goals shared out including last seasons and that looks like it will have every chance of happening here at the big prices being offered.
Picking a winner in normal time is difficult with neither team playing their best football to end the season. However the difference in the results Manchester United and Chelsea have had in 'big' games over the last couple of months does make me believe Jose Mourinho can add another trophy to his list of honours and another to the heaving Manchester United trophy cabinet.
I just expect a more 'together' performance from Manchester United across the ninety minutes and there is a chance, albeit a slight one, that Chelsea produce another sub-par performance for their beleaguered manager. Both teams could play a part in this one, but I will look for Manchester United to prevail on the Asian Handicap which is effectively a 'Draw No Bet' market for the Cup Final.
MY PICKS: Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Friday, 16 February 2018
Weekend Football Picks 2018 (February 16-19)
The Premier League takes another short break this weekend as the FA Cup Fifth Round games have been scheduled for four days from Friday through to Monday.
One of the weirder aspects of the Cup this weekend is the draw is taking place on Saturday evening at around 8pm- that is almost an hour after the last FA Cup tie of the day is played and before two other Fifth Round ties are to kick off.
And yet the fans moan that clubs don't take the FA Cup as seriously as they would like(!)
At least the majority of the top Premier League clubs are still involved going into this Fifth Round, although Manchester United have the toughest of the ties with a trip to Huddersfield Town. I would expect Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to make up three of the final eight teams in the FA Cup this season and the competition looks like it could produce some big ties in the last couple of months of the season.
I said during the week that I would have a short piece about Manchester United and the problems in getting the best out of our top players at Old Trafford. I posted that on Thursday and you can read it here.
Now onto the FA Cup Fifth Round Picks, even if this competition has kicked my behind so far this season.
Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: There will be a few teams who have been humbled by Manchester City this season so I am not expecting a long malaise from Leicester City as they look to progress to the FA Cup Quarter Final on Friday.
Claude Puel knows the importance of a deep Cup run having taken Southampton to the League Cup Final last season, and I expect him to pick a stronger team than he has in the last couple of Rounds.
Firstly that is down to the quality of Sheffield United who are in a decent position in the Championship compared with the League One opposition Leicester City have faced so far. Secondly this fixture comes at a good time in the calendar with Leicester City's key players well rested and it would be a surprise if the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy are not called upon in forward areas.
The FA Cup is very important for a Leicester City team who are in no danger of being relegated and I expect Puel's team to underline that point with no game set for seven days after this one.
Sheffield United have to be respected as a team who will work hard and try to remain organised defensively to try and frustrate the Leicester City players. However they have already been beaten 1-4 by Leicester City at home in the League Cup and the Championship is a bigger priority for The Blades who are fighting to get back into the top six.
I would still expect Chris Wilder to pick a strong team for this Fifth Round tie, but Leicester City should have a little too much for them. The Foxes have been scoring plenty of goals at the King Power Stadium recently, while the return of Mahrez can only be a boost to the team who want to add silverware to sit alongside the Premier League trophy they won two years ago.
I think Leicester City will prove a little too good and can score a killer goal when Sheffield United begin to chase a way back into this one. I will back the home side to win and cover the Asian Handicap on their way through to the Quarter Final.
Chelsea v Hull City Pick: The first live game from the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend is played on Friday night at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Hull City.
Unsurprisingly Chelsea are considerable favourites to win this tie and Antonio Conte has to be hoping the 3-0 win over West Brom on Monday night will have given his players a boost in confidence. The scoreline was flattering for Chelsea and they will have to better in the days ahead with some big games to come, but that win over West Brom has to at least give Chelsea the confidence to win this kind of fixture.
As well as Hull City have played in the last couple of weeks, they are a team who have struggled on their travels for the last eighteen months. Prior to the win at Nottingham Forest, Hull City had lost 5 straight away Championship games and only scored a single goal in that run.
Chelsea have found a way to earn clean sheets at home and that could be the foundation to their success in this Fifth Round tie. Trying to guess the Antonio Conte team is more difficult with the Barcelona Champions League tie on deck, but I think momentum is important and having this game on a Friday helps the Italian pick a strong team.
I would anticipate Eden Hazard being given a start and he has been a big part of Chelsea's play in recent weeks having another starring outing on Monday. Conte will want his team to get into a position where he can begin to rest the likes of Hazard for the Barcelona game and I think Chelsea will be able to be too good for Hull City in this Fifth Round tie.
I will look for Chelsea to also improve their run of 6 clean sheets in their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. Backing the home team to win to nil is the call from this tie as Chelsea reach yet another FA Cup Quarter Final in recent years.
Sheffield Wednesday v Swansea City Pick: Much of the intrigue around this fixture is surrounding the return of Carlos Carvalhal to Hillsborough having been sacked as manager of Sheffield Wednesday and days later taking over at Swansea City.
While Carvalhal's time at Sheffield Wednesday came to an end because of an underachieving season, he has surpassed all expectations with Swansea City by giving them a real chance of avoiding the drop in the Premier League.
The players at the Liberty Stadium look much happier under the Spaniard's guidance and Swansea City have become tough to beat as they have played well over the last few weeks. Strong teams have been picked to help Swansea City make it through to the FA Cup Fifth Round too and I would be surprised if Carvalhal suddenly decides to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven for this one.
Momentum can be so important for teams at this time of the season and Swansea City have plenty of that behind them. However they have not played as well away from home as at the Liberty Stadium and Swansea City have drawn 4 consecutive away games including in both initial ties in the FA Cup at Wolves and Notts County.
Sheffield Wednesday may be turning a corner themselves and you have to think the fans are itching for this game to kick off. They can give the home players a real boost and I think Sheffield Wednesday can cause problems for this Swansea City team who have not had many clean sheets away from home.
The Owls have won both home games in the FA Cup this season and I think this is going to be a tight game where both teams have their opportunities to win it. I think the 1-1 is also a real player and backing both teams to score at close to odds against is the likely outcome of this one.
Both teams have scored in 4 of the 5 away games Swansea City have played under Carvalhal, and Sheffield Wednesday had seen both teams score in consecutive games at Hillsborough before the 2-0 win over Derby County this past week.
Brighton v Coventry City Pick: The lowest club left in the FA Cup this season are Coventry City and they have been rewarded with an away tie at a Premier League opponent in the FA Cup Fifth Round.
No doubt the fans and players would have hoped for a 'bigger' name in the Fifth Round, but Coventry City will still look to head to Brighton and earn another upset having already beaten Stoke City in the FA Cup this season.
Chris Hughton will also recognise the opportunity in front of Brighton although he is still likely to make changes to keep his top players fresh for the key Premier League challenges ahead. That shouldn't affect Brighton's performance too much and they have begun to score goals regularly at the Amex Stadium which should be enough to see off an opponent who are playing significantly lower down the League standings.
While Brighton have shown improvement at home, Coventry City have struggled on their travels in League Two. They have lost their last 3 away games in the League and Coventry City will have to be careful with fitness issues against the Premier League trained Brighton who also have the fans firmly behind them.
Ultimately I do think being at home will be enough for Brighton to win this tie and win it by a couple of goals on the day. Even with the expected changes, Brighton have a squad that are used to playing at a higher level than these Coventry City players and the chance to reach the FA Cup Quarter Final should be a big motivating factor for the home players.
Coventry City have to be respected for beating Premier League Stoke City, but that came at home and was a game that could have gone very differently if The Potters had taken their chances. With Brighton scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 games at the Amex Stadium, I don't think they will be as poor in front of goal as Stoke City were in the FA Cup Third Round and I will back Brighton to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both West Brom and Southampton would take a deal where they are out of the FA Cup and guaranteed a place in the Premier League next season, but for one weekend the players can release themselves from the tension of trying to earn big League points.
The two teams come into the FA Cup Fifth Round inside the bottom three of the Premier League and it is West Brom who look in a much bigger hole. They are now 7 points from safety compared with Southampton who are just a point behind 17th placed Huddersfield Town.
Both Alan Pardew and Mauricio Pellegrino have decided to play strong teams in the FA Cup in a bid to improve the confidence of the players and that makes this a potentially big game for both West Brom and Southampton. The winner could earn some momentum to take into big League games, while the losing team may just start to get that sinking feeling.
However neither team is going to want to accept a draw in this fixture and add another game to their schedule at the end of the month. That should see both West Brom and Southampton look to produce some attacking football and follow a similar path to the 2-3 win Southampton recorded at the start of the month.
West Brom have struggled in front of goal all season which perhaps is a concern, but they have created chances under Alan Pardew. Losing Daniel Sturridge is a blow, but West Brom should be able to create opportunities in front of goal against a Southampton team who have conceded 4 goals in their last 2 away games.
On the other side, Southampton have scored 5 goals in those same couple of away games and I can see these two teams producing at least three goals for the second time inside two weeks. The layers don't tend to agree, but I think both Southampton and West Brom are likely to play with attacking intent to try and win this tie at the first time of asking and that could lead to a more open game than most anticipate.
Recent performances of both teams suggest they can get on the front foot in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: There was little doubt this fixture was going to be picked for television coverage and Jose Mourinho has to at least be satisfied that Manchester United can play on Saturday evening.
It is the start of a big weekend for Manchester United who play the First Leg of their Champions League Second Round tie at Sevilla on Wednesday before hosting Chelsea in a huge Premier League game next Sunday. The FA Cup is also important to the manager and the players and this game represents a chance to make up for a particular low point of the season.
Back in October Manchester United were beaten 2-1 at Huddersfield Town in the Premier League which was a big upset. A similar result would be an upset, but perhaps not as unexpected considering the back to back away losses Manchester United have suffered coming into this one.
Huddersfield Town had a confidence boosting 4-1 win over Bournemouth last weekend and scored 4, albeit after extra time, in their win at Birmingham City in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay too. David Wagner is hoping his team can build on the performance from last weekend against Bournemouth, but that came at a time when The Terriers had been struggling in the Premier League.
In recent weeks the likes of West Ham United and Liverpool have won comfortably at the John Smith's Stadium and both teams managed to score at least three times in those wins. With the changes that Huddersfield Town are expected to make, Manchester United should be able to create their opportunities in this one and I do expect a strong away team to begin this one.
The deeper Manchester United squad should mean any changes should not really be a problem for Jose Mourinho's men. I don't think those changes will be made in attacking areas so Manchester United should remain dangerous, while the likes of Marcos Rojo and Luke Shaw are able players to come into defensive areas.
I expect a reaction from Manchester United after the result at St James' Park last weekend and I do think they can get the better of Huddersfield Town on Saturday. Manchester United remain one of the better away teams in the Premier League despite the recent setbacks and I will back them to become the latest team to leave Huddersfield Town with a comfortable win recorded.
Rochdale v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Spotland surface looked to be in terrible shape when Rochdale beat Millwall in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay and it took a lot of criticism from outsiders including Mauricio Pochettino who is bringing his Tottenham Hotspur side to town.
The pitch has been relaid since that match, but it has also meant Rochdale home games have been forced to be postponed. Some have even suggested the surface could be dangerous for players, although Keith Hill rounded on Pochettino for making those suggestions in a press conference a few days ago.
It certainly feels like the pitch will be something of a leveller and Rochdale would have seen the way Tottenham Hotspur struggled at Rodney Parade in the Fourth Round when needing a late goal to secure a 1-1 draw at Newport County. The home team will try and make this Tottenham Hotspur team uncomfortable and it will be a challenge for the Premier League club who will make some rotations to their starting eleven.
Ultimately the team should still be good enough to beat the team at the foot of League One and it will be about getting used to some of the bounces and bobbles on the surface. If Tottenham Hotspur can just work their way into this fixture, I would expect they can show their class at some point and win this tie without the need to add a Replay to their busy schedule.
Games at Spotland have not featured a lot of goals in recent weeks as the playing surface has made it difficult. That could be the case again on Sunday even though a Premier League team is the visitor this time, and I am looking for a professional job from Tottenham Hotspur.
Rochdale can make life difficult with more familiarity with the conditions on their home surface, but I think Tottenham Hotspur will find a couple of goals to win this one and I will back them to win a lower scoring game than expected.
Wigan Athletic v Manchester City Pick: I will expect this live televised FA Cup Fifth Round to be preceded by lots of video of Wigan Athletic upsetting Manchester City in this competition in both 2013 and 2014.
This would be an even bigger upset than those two occasions if The Latics can take a third consecutive Premier League scalp in the FA Cup. After beating both Bournemouth and West Ham United at home, Wigan Athletic shouldn't be overawed by the occasion, but it is a totally different test taking on clubs who will make changes compared to a Manchester City team looking to win every competition they have entered.
With six days between their last game and a further six before Manchester City are playing again, Pep Guardiola will likely pick a strong team. I would expect some changes to keep things fresh, but the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero should also be supported by Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva which will give Manchester City a huge threat going forward.
Wigan Athletic will give this a go and they have scored 5 home goals against the Premier League clubs they have faced in the FA Cup this season. However, Wigan Athletic have also failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home League One games and I think they will have difficulties in trying to breach a Manchester City team who dominate the ball as much as they do.
On the other side it has proven to be a really difficult task to contain this Manchester City attack and I don't think Wigan Athletic will have a lot of joy doing that despite being a solid defensive outfit in League One. Manchester City have scored at least twice in the last month at Cardiff City and Bristol City who are playing at the top of the Championship and I think they are going to be good for at least a couple of strikes here.
I imagine there will be some sticky moments at the back for Manchester City with the way Wigan Athletic will approach things, but I think they can ride those out and then dominate much of the play as they have in many games this season. The lack of goals Wigan Athletic have produced in League One games recently has to be a concern for them and I will back Manchester City to win with a clean sheet here.
MY PICKS: Leicester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday-Swansea City Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
One of the weirder aspects of the Cup this weekend is the draw is taking place on Saturday evening at around 8pm- that is almost an hour after the last FA Cup tie of the day is played and before two other Fifth Round ties are to kick off.
And yet the fans moan that clubs don't take the FA Cup as seriously as they would like(!)
At least the majority of the top Premier League clubs are still involved going into this Fifth Round, although Manchester United have the toughest of the ties with a trip to Huddersfield Town. I would expect Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to make up three of the final eight teams in the FA Cup this season and the competition looks like it could produce some big ties in the last couple of months of the season.
I said during the week that I would have a short piece about Manchester United and the problems in getting the best out of our top players at Old Trafford. I posted that on Thursday and you can read it here.
Now onto the FA Cup Fifth Round Picks, even if this competition has kicked my behind so far this season.
Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: There will be a few teams who have been humbled by Manchester City this season so I am not expecting a long malaise from Leicester City as they look to progress to the FA Cup Quarter Final on Friday.
Claude Puel knows the importance of a deep Cup run having taken Southampton to the League Cup Final last season, and I expect him to pick a stronger team than he has in the last couple of Rounds.
Firstly that is down to the quality of Sheffield United who are in a decent position in the Championship compared with the League One opposition Leicester City have faced so far. Secondly this fixture comes at a good time in the calendar with Leicester City's key players well rested and it would be a surprise if the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy are not called upon in forward areas.
The FA Cup is very important for a Leicester City team who are in no danger of being relegated and I expect Puel's team to underline that point with no game set for seven days after this one.
Sheffield United have to be respected as a team who will work hard and try to remain organised defensively to try and frustrate the Leicester City players. However they have already been beaten 1-4 by Leicester City at home in the League Cup and the Championship is a bigger priority for The Blades who are fighting to get back into the top six.
I would still expect Chris Wilder to pick a strong team for this Fifth Round tie, but Leicester City should have a little too much for them. The Foxes have been scoring plenty of goals at the King Power Stadium recently, while the return of Mahrez can only be a boost to the team who want to add silverware to sit alongside the Premier League trophy they won two years ago.
I think Leicester City will prove a little too good and can score a killer goal when Sheffield United begin to chase a way back into this one. I will back the home side to win and cover the Asian Handicap on their way through to the Quarter Final.
Chelsea v Hull City Pick: The first live game from the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend is played on Friday night at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Hull City.
Unsurprisingly Chelsea are considerable favourites to win this tie and Antonio Conte has to be hoping the 3-0 win over West Brom on Monday night will have given his players a boost in confidence. The scoreline was flattering for Chelsea and they will have to better in the days ahead with some big games to come, but that win over West Brom has to at least give Chelsea the confidence to win this kind of fixture.
As well as Hull City have played in the last couple of weeks, they are a team who have struggled on their travels for the last eighteen months. Prior to the win at Nottingham Forest, Hull City had lost 5 straight away Championship games and only scored a single goal in that run.
Chelsea have found a way to earn clean sheets at home and that could be the foundation to their success in this Fifth Round tie. Trying to guess the Antonio Conte team is more difficult with the Barcelona Champions League tie on deck, but I think momentum is important and having this game on a Friday helps the Italian pick a strong team.
I would anticipate Eden Hazard being given a start and he has been a big part of Chelsea's play in recent weeks having another starring outing on Monday. Conte will want his team to get into a position where he can begin to rest the likes of Hazard for the Barcelona game and I think Chelsea will be able to be too good for Hull City in this Fifth Round tie.
I will look for Chelsea to also improve their run of 6 clean sheets in their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. Backing the home team to win to nil is the call from this tie as Chelsea reach yet another FA Cup Quarter Final in recent years.
Sheffield Wednesday v Swansea City Pick: Much of the intrigue around this fixture is surrounding the return of Carlos Carvalhal to Hillsborough having been sacked as manager of Sheffield Wednesday and days later taking over at Swansea City.
While Carvalhal's time at Sheffield Wednesday came to an end because of an underachieving season, he has surpassed all expectations with Swansea City by giving them a real chance of avoiding the drop in the Premier League.
The players at the Liberty Stadium look much happier under the Spaniard's guidance and Swansea City have become tough to beat as they have played well over the last few weeks. Strong teams have been picked to help Swansea City make it through to the FA Cup Fifth Round too and I would be surprised if Carvalhal suddenly decides to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven for this one.
Momentum can be so important for teams at this time of the season and Swansea City have plenty of that behind them. However they have not played as well away from home as at the Liberty Stadium and Swansea City have drawn 4 consecutive away games including in both initial ties in the FA Cup at Wolves and Notts County.
Sheffield Wednesday may be turning a corner themselves and you have to think the fans are itching for this game to kick off. They can give the home players a real boost and I think Sheffield Wednesday can cause problems for this Swansea City team who have not had many clean sheets away from home.
The Owls have won both home games in the FA Cup this season and I think this is going to be a tight game where both teams have their opportunities to win it. I think the 1-1 is also a real player and backing both teams to score at close to odds against is the likely outcome of this one.
Both teams have scored in 4 of the 5 away games Swansea City have played under Carvalhal, and Sheffield Wednesday had seen both teams score in consecutive games at Hillsborough before the 2-0 win over Derby County this past week.
Brighton v Coventry City Pick: The lowest club left in the FA Cup this season are Coventry City and they have been rewarded with an away tie at a Premier League opponent in the FA Cup Fifth Round.
No doubt the fans and players would have hoped for a 'bigger' name in the Fifth Round, but Coventry City will still look to head to Brighton and earn another upset having already beaten Stoke City in the FA Cup this season.
Chris Hughton will also recognise the opportunity in front of Brighton although he is still likely to make changes to keep his top players fresh for the key Premier League challenges ahead. That shouldn't affect Brighton's performance too much and they have begun to score goals regularly at the Amex Stadium which should be enough to see off an opponent who are playing significantly lower down the League standings.
While Brighton have shown improvement at home, Coventry City have struggled on their travels in League Two. They have lost their last 3 away games in the League and Coventry City will have to be careful with fitness issues against the Premier League trained Brighton who also have the fans firmly behind them.
Ultimately I do think being at home will be enough for Brighton to win this tie and win it by a couple of goals on the day. Even with the expected changes, Brighton have a squad that are used to playing at a higher level than these Coventry City players and the chance to reach the FA Cup Quarter Final should be a big motivating factor for the home players.
Coventry City have to be respected for beating Premier League Stoke City, but that came at home and was a game that could have gone very differently if The Potters had taken their chances. With Brighton scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 games at the Amex Stadium, I don't think they will be as poor in front of goal as Stoke City were in the FA Cup Third Round and I will back Brighton to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both West Brom and Southampton would take a deal where they are out of the FA Cup and guaranteed a place in the Premier League next season, but for one weekend the players can release themselves from the tension of trying to earn big League points.
The two teams come into the FA Cup Fifth Round inside the bottom three of the Premier League and it is West Brom who look in a much bigger hole. They are now 7 points from safety compared with Southampton who are just a point behind 17th placed Huddersfield Town.
Both Alan Pardew and Mauricio Pellegrino have decided to play strong teams in the FA Cup in a bid to improve the confidence of the players and that makes this a potentially big game for both West Brom and Southampton. The winner could earn some momentum to take into big League games, while the losing team may just start to get that sinking feeling.
However neither team is going to want to accept a draw in this fixture and add another game to their schedule at the end of the month. That should see both West Brom and Southampton look to produce some attacking football and follow a similar path to the 2-3 win Southampton recorded at the start of the month.
West Brom have struggled in front of goal all season which perhaps is a concern, but they have created chances under Alan Pardew. Losing Daniel Sturridge is a blow, but West Brom should be able to create opportunities in front of goal against a Southampton team who have conceded 4 goals in their last 2 away games.
On the other side, Southampton have scored 5 goals in those same couple of away games and I can see these two teams producing at least three goals for the second time inside two weeks. The layers don't tend to agree, but I think both Southampton and West Brom are likely to play with attacking intent to try and win this tie at the first time of asking and that could lead to a more open game than most anticipate.
Recent performances of both teams suggest they can get on the front foot in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: There was little doubt this fixture was going to be picked for television coverage and Jose Mourinho has to at least be satisfied that Manchester United can play on Saturday evening.
It is the start of a big weekend for Manchester United who play the First Leg of their Champions League Second Round tie at Sevilla on Wednesday before hosting Chelsea in a huge Premier League game next Sunday. The FA Cup is also important to the manager and the players and this game represents a chance to make up for a particular low point of the season.
Back in October Manchester United were beaten 2-1 at Huddersfield Town in the Premier League which was a big upset. A similar result would be an upset, but perhaps not as unexpected considering the back to back away losses Manchester United have suffered coming into this one.
Huddersfield Town had a confidence boosting 4-1 win over Bournemouth last weekend and scored 4, albeit after extra time, in their win at Birmingham City in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay too. David Wagner is hoping his team can build on the performance from last weekend against Bournemouth, but that came at a time when The Terriers had been struggling in the Premier League.
In recent weeks the likes of West Ham United and Liverpool have won comfortably at the John Smith's Stadium and both teams managed to score at least three times in those wins. With the changes that Huddersfield Town are expected to make, Manchester United should be able to create their opportunities in this one and I do expect a strong away team to begin this one.
The deeper Manchester United squad should mean any changes should not really be a problem for Jose Mourinho's men. I don't think those changes will be made in attacking areas so Manchester United should remain dangerous, while the likes of Marcos Rojo and Luke Shaw are able players to come into defensive areas.
I expect a reaction from Manchester United after the result at St James' Park last weekend and I do think they can get the better of Huddersfield Town on Saturday. Manchester United remain one of the better away teams in the Premier League despite the recent setbacks and I will back them to become the latest team to leave Huddersfield Town with a comfortable win recorded.
Rochdale v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Spotland surface looked to be in terrible shape when Rochdale beat Millwall in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay and it took a lot of criticism from outsiders including Mauricio Pochettino who is bringing his Tottenham Hotspur side to town.
The pitch has been relaid since that match, but it has also meant Rochdale home games have been forced to be postponed. Some have even suggested the surface could be dangerous for players, although Keith Hill rounded on Pochettino for making those suggestions in a press conference a few days ago.
It certainly feels like the pitch will be something of a leveller and Rochdale would have seen the way Tottenham Hotspur struggled at Rodney Parade in the Fourth Round when needing a late goal to secure a 1-1 draw at Newport County. The home team will try and make this Tottenham Hotspur team uncomfortable and it will be a challenge for the Premier League club who will make some rotations to their starting eleven.
Ultimately the team should still be good enough to beat the team at the foot of League One and it will be about getting used to some of the bounces and bobbles on the surface. If Tottenham Hotspur can just work their way into this fixture, I would expect they can show their class at some point and win this tie without the need to add a Replay to their busy schedule.
Games at Spotland have not featured a lot of goals in recent weeks as the playing surface has made it difficult. That could be the case again on Sunday even though a Premier League team is the visitor this time, and I am looking for a professional job from Tottenham Hotspur.
Rochdale can make life difficult with more familiarity with the conditions on their home surface, but I think Tottenham Hotspur will find a couple of goals to win this one and I will back them to win a lower scoring game than expected.
Wigan Athletic v Manchester City Pick: I will expect this live televised FA Cup Fifth Round to be preceded by lots of video of Wigan Athletic upsetting Manchester City in this competition in both 2013 and 2014.
This would be an even bigger upset than those two occasions if The Latics can take a third consecutive Premier League scalp in the FA Cup. After beating both Bournemouth and West Ham United at home, Wigan Athletic shouldn't be overawed by the occasion, but it is a totally different test taking on clubs who will make changes compared to a Manchester City team looking to win every competition they have entered.
With six days between their last game and a further six before Manchester City are playing again, Pep Guardiola will likely pick a strong team. I would expect some changes to keep things fresh, but the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero should also be supported by Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva which will give Manchester City a huge threat going forward.
Wigan Athletic will give this a go and they have scored 5 home goals against the Premier League clubs they have faced in the FA Cup this season. However, Wigan Athletic have also failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home League One games and I think they will have difficulties in trying to breach a Manchester City team who dominate the ball as much as they do.
On the other side it has proven to be a really difficult task to contain this Manchester City attack and I don't think Wigan Athletic will have a lot of joy doing that despite being a solid defensive outfit in League One. Manchester City have scored at least twice in the last month at Cardiff City and Bristol City who are playing at the top of the Championship and I think they are going to be good for at least a couple of strikes here.
I imagine there will be some sticky moments at the back for Manchester City with the way Wigan Athletic will approach things, but I think they can ride those out and then dominate much of the play as they have in many games this season. The lack of goals Wigan Athletic have produced in League One games recently has to be a concern for them and I will back Manchester City to win with a clean sheet here.
MY PICKS: Leicester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday-Swansea City Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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