There are four FA Cup Quarter Final matches and five Premier League matches to be played on the final weekend before the first international break of the season.
It does mean I am going to not have a full post with Fantasy Advice this week and instead just focus on the Fantasy Star and Alternative that I have been using for a while.
As we get down to the final weeks of the season, this is the time of the year more people will begin to play their 'Chips' in the official Fantasy game. From next season I am planning to offer more of a breakdown as to how I am going to play mine to try and maximise returns and I will also have more screenshots of the way I have developed my team, but for this season I can say that I am using my 'Free Hit' in this GameWeek while keeping three other Chips for after the international break.
This was the best play for me as I think I have the options to 'Triple Captain' in GW32 and then have the chance to put a Wild Card together for the maximum Bench Boost for GW35. It should put me very much in a position to surpass the 2000 point mark for the season, but I am looking for more as I want to crack the top 100k by the time the season is over.
Bournemouth v Newcastle United Pick: The Premier League fixtures have been decimated this week due to the FA Cup Quarter Final matches scheduled for the same weekend, but there are still some important games to be played.
One of those comes at the Vitality Stadium where both Bournemouth and Newcastle United will be chasing the three points that can improve their chances of completing their ambitions for the season. Bournemouth are hopeful of another top 10 finish in the Premier League, while Newcastle United will edge closer to the 40 point mark they would have been targeting back in August if they can secure the upset here.
It could be quite a good game despite the windy conditions that are affecting the United Kingdom at this moment. Those conditions can be a little more brutal on the coasts and that is my one concern here, but otherwise two teams who have gotten forward and continued to show defensive vulnerability could combine to produce at least three goals on the day.
Rafael Benitez is perhaps known as a defensive manager, but he has gotten Newcastle United playing much further up the park in the last few weeks and the results suggest he won't change his tactic. On the other side is Eddie Howe who wants his team to get forward and score goals and the returns of Callum Wilson and David Brooks should help Bournemouth have chances to get back to winning ways at the Vitality Stadium.
The last two fixtures between these clubs have seen both teams score and at least three goals shared out on the day and I think that will be the case here. Barring completely horrendous conditions, I will look for goals to be scored here.
Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- scored on his return last week and should be leading the line for Bournemouth in this one too.
Alternative: Ayoze Perez- been in good goal-scoring form for a more adventurous Newcastle United and is facing a vulnerable Bournemouth defence.
Burnley v Leicester City Pick: This is a vital game for Burnley as they look to move clear of the bottom three after a weekend in which almost everything went wrong for them.
Failing to hold onto a lead at Anfield was not that unexpected, but Brighton, Southampton and Cardiff City all won on Saturday and that means they have dragged Burnley back to a position just outside the bottom three.
If this was being played a month ago you would have really fancied Burnley to get a result, but Claude Puel has left Leicester City and the players look a lot happier now. Brendan Rodgers will play to the strengths of the likes of Jamie Vardy and the former England international has responded with goals in each of the last two games since Rodgers officially took over as manager.
Leicester City have looked more confident going forward, although they are going to be tested defensively by a Burnley team who are creating chances. The concern for the home team is that they have made some sloppy mistakes themselves in their own final third and I do think this could be yet another game that features goals this weekend.
Both teams have scored in all 5 Leicester City away games played in 2019 and 4 of those ended with three or more goals shared out. In fact both teams have scored in 9 of 10 Leicester City games in the new calendar year and all but two of those fixtures have ended with three or more goals produced.
It might surprise but both teams scoring has been a factor in recent Burnley games too with the last 4 at Turf Moor ending that way. The 1-1 is thus the one scoreline that could be a killer, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out by these teams at odds against.
Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- has been scoring goals for Leicester City and I have identified Jamie Vardy in each of the last three weeks and I don't want to get off the bandwagon.
Alternative: Ashley Barnes- Burnley have been creating chances and they will need Ashley Barnes at his best to secure a result.
West Ham United v Huddersfield Town Pick: David Wagner felt he could do no more with his Huddersfield Town team when he resigned as manager a few weeks ago and the appointment of Jan Siewert looks to be one that is going to keep the consistency of the model going despite Wagner's departure.
You have to feel that preparation for life back in the Championship has been going on for some time for Huddersfield Town who have spent two years overachieving and upsetting the odds.
The 2018/19 season has proved a step too far for them and The Terriers will soon have relegation confirmed barring a miracle beyond miracles. They have continued to struggle for goals when not playing Wolves and Huddersfield Town have not hit the net in 6 straight away games in all competitions ahead of this visit to the London Stadium.
West Ham United are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2-0 defeat at Cardiff City last weekend, but playing at home has been a much more positive experience for them. They are unbeaten in 6 here and West Ham United have won 4 of their last 5 in front of their own fans.
3 of those wins have come with a clean sheet and I do think they can be the latest to achieve one of those against Huddersfield Town. The Hammers are not always the most convincing defensively and they are going to have to deal with long, high balls being played into strong winds and that could cause one or two problems for them.
However I still think Huddersfield Town are going to need someone to either get a little fortunate or a big mistake from West Ham United if they are going to score with confidence in a bad place at the moment. With that in mind I think the home team will win and can be backed to do so with a clean sheet at a good looking price.
Fantasy Star: Manuel Lanzini- he has looked good on his return to the West Ham United team and this is a game in which he can shine.
Alternative: Declan Rice- another favourite of mine especially when someone set as a defender is playing much higher up the pitch.
Fulham v Liverpool Pick: The layers are expecting a routine win for Liverpool at Craven Cottage on Sunday as they are looking to build on the momentum of an away win in the Champions League and take that into this Premier League fixture. The Premier League title contenders look very, very short for a win here when you think of the prices other clubs have been, but I can't really look beyond a Liverpool win.
Fulham simply have not competed well enough to believe anything else will happen, but they have been better at home as indicated by narrow defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea at Craven Cottage. However both Arsenal and Manchester United won by wide margins and I think the Asian Handicap is hard to call.
The best the home team could do is cause one or two problems for Liverpool who would have put a huge emotional effort into winning at Bayern Munich during the week. The game was on Tuesday and this one is on Sunday so there is time for Liverpool players to have reset their minds, but Fulham have scored against Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea and missed glaring opportunities against Manchester United which suggests they could score in this one too.
It is about as good as I think it will get for Fulham, although scoring goals against Liverpool has proved to be far from easy this season. Teams do have their chances, but not too many so much will depend on how clinical Fulham are in this fixture.
Regardless I think Liverpool will win the game, but backing both teams to find the net at odds against isn't the worst shout in the world. Liverpool are most definitely scoring unless Fulham have found a brand new defence and I do think the home team have been able to cause one or two problems for the top teams to believe they will have their opportunities here and it just depends on whether they can take them.
Fulham have scored in 6 of their last 7 at Craven Cottage and backing both teams to score is the pick here.
Fantasy Star: Sadio Mane- has scored four goals in the last eight days and covered up the Mohamed Salah dip in form.
Alternative: Ryan Babel- the former Liverpool player is going to be a threat for Fulham and any goal the home team is going to earn will need his influence.
Everton v Chelsea Pick: The trip to the Ukraine on Thursday night does make this away game a little more awkward for Chelsea as they look to move up alongside their rivals for a top four finish in the Premier League. Maurizio Sarri can't use the travel as an excuse and Chelsea have a chance to put some pressure on the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Manchester United who are not playing in the Premier League this weekend.
Everton have been resting and recovering in that time which may give them a chance of springing the upset, but they are going to have to be a lot better than last weekend when they blew a 0-2 lead at Newcastle United.
They have been struggling for goals at home which makes it hard to trust Everton and they are a team that still feels like it needs some huge investment despite the outlay made by the club in the last two summers. The season has not gone quite as Marco Silva would have hoped and Everton have found the very top teams tough to contain.
Earlier this month they did hold Liverpool to a goalless draw, but poor finishing from the visitors contributed to that and now they host a Chelsea team in decent form. The motivation for the Everton fans and players won't be nearly as high as when they hosted the Merseyside derby and I think that will help Chelsea find a way to produce a big three points prior to the international break.
Goodison Park has proved to be a tough venue for Chelsea to visit in recent seasons, but they did win here a couple of years ago. The Blues are clearly still a work in progress under Maurizio Sarri, but they have been playing with more confidence of late and Everton's struggles in front of goal could give the visitors the opportunity to leave with a victory on the day.
Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- scored a fabulous equaliser for Chelsea last weekend and is clearly the spark for the team.
Alternative: Dominic Calvert-Lewin- has been on the scoreboard for Everton and the favoured player to lead the line for Marco Silva at the moment. If Everton are going to have success, Calvert-Lewin could be key to it.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Watford and Crystal Palace have to view this FA Cup Quarter Final as a real opportunity to make their way to Wembley Stadium and perhaps even go on and win the Cup with a bit of fortune.
The two Manchester clubs are both still involved and are the favourites, but the winner of this one will believe they can upset the odds once they get into the neutral venue matches in the Semi Final and Final.
This is not an easy game to read and you can make a case for both clubs.
Watford have done the Premier League double over Crystal Palace this campaign and they snapped a run of 7 at home without beating The Eagles in the victory at Vicarage Road. They have been in good form when not playing the top two teams and Watford have scored plenty of goals which makes them dangerous.
The case for Crystal Palace is that this is a team that have enjoyed playing away from home as they tend to get a little more space to exploit in those matches. They have been punishing those spaces with 3 straight wins away from home in all competitions and Crystal Palace have scored at least twice in each of those wins.
Both teams will be playing with a bit of pressure knowing what the prize is for the winner and the belief they should be winning this tie. Picking a winner is not easy although the mental edge has to be given to Watford with the two League wins over Crystal Palace behind them.
The two games have both featured at least three goals shared out and the underlying stats showed that the number of chances should have produced those goals. The situation could mean both teams are more cautious than they would be because the players will be desperate to play in the FA Cup Semi Final, but I think we are going to see another 2-1 scoreline although not necessarily to Watford for the third time.
Swansea City v Manchester City Pick: As we go into the final two months of the season Manchester City remain on course to win an unprecedented Quadruple even if the manager is not allowing his players to think of history. The old cliche of taking things game by game is being applied by Manchester City, but so far it is working a treat and they are big favourites to reach the FA Cup Semi Final.
Even if Pep Guardiola decides to make a number of changes to his first team, Manchester City have a lot of good options to go with and that means they should not be weakened too much. Most of the play will be dominated by the visitors and the way this match goes will depend very much on how Swansea City approach it.
The home team could choose to sit in and make life difficult for Manchester City as Bournemouth did earlier this month, but it is not really the style of Graham Potter or the club. And that would worry me if I supported Swansea City.
While they have nothing to lose, playing an open style of football and looking to get on the front foot could leave Swansea City massively vulnerable to Manchester City here. There is pace in the final third that will make the home team dangerous and they do have a very strong recent record at the Liberty Stadium, but Swansea City have not really come up against too many teams like this Manchester City one and I do think they could be put to the sword.
My feeling is that Manchester City will be able to get going in the first half and then begin to pick off a Swansea City team chasing the game in the second half. This is a huge handicap for Manchester City to cover away from home, but they are playing with confidence and players can leave things on the line with a two week international break to come when they will get a chance to rest some tired limbs.
I do think the home team will have one or two moments of their own, but Manchester City are rolling along and they can win by a comfortable margin to reach yet another Semi Final under Pep Guardiola.
Wolves v Manchester United Pick: The last of the FA Cup Quarter Final ties to be played on Saturday looks to be the best one on paper and I think both Wolves and Manchester United can contribute to a decent watch for the fans.
There are times I do watch Wolves and think they are a workmanlike team with a touch of quality about them, but other times when I am very impressed with them as they swarm forward and cause problems for opponents including from those in the top six of the Premier League.
Being at home means there is an onus on Wolves to play further up the pitch compared to their counter attacking style away from home. That has seen them beat Chelsea and draw with Manchester City here, but both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool have won. The latter two visitors both scored at least twice in the Premier League games here, but Wolves got some revenge over Liverpool by beating them in the FA Cup Third Round.
Wolves have been very good going forward in recent games at Molineux with two or more goals scored in 5 of their last 6 fixtures here. That should mean they are confident enough to test the Manchester United defence, although Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has got his tactics right away from home as proven by their 9 game winning run which was only ended last Sunday in the defeat at Arsenal.
Prior to that Manchester United had scored two or more goals in 4 away games in a row in all competitions and I do think the attacking football both of these teams will look to play could lead to another high-scoring FA Cup tie. Spaces will open up if one of these teams is leading going into the final fifteen minutes, but I would expect at least three goals to have been scored as both teams hit at least one on the day.
Manchester United are the favourites, but Wolves won't make this easy and it could be a game that features three or more goals at odds against.
Millwall v Brighton Pick: Fixtures between Millwall and Brighton have been tight affairs in recent years, but they meet for the first time in four seasons in this FA Cup Quarter Final and I do think we could see a lot more in terms of goals this time around.
This is a one off tie to reach the FA Cup Semi Final and Millwall being at home means they should have the confidence to get forward and cause problems for Brighton. The win at Birmingham City during the week is a huge result for Neil Harris and his players and they have already beaten Everton here in the Cup this season.
In fact Millwall have a decent record in the FA Cup in the last three seasons and that has seen them go unbeaten in 9 ties they have hosted. In that time Millwall have beaten FOUR Premier League clubs and for the most part they have been in a similar League position to the one they find themselves in now.
The last couple of games at the New Den have not gone in Millwall's favour, but there have been four goals shared out in both and this is a team that looks like they can create chances, but also concede plenty of goals too.
Brighton might not be the best travellers in the Premier League, but I do think they can take advantage of some of the defending Millwall have produced. The win in the big rivalry game against Crystal Palace last weekend means Brighton have scored in 7 straight away games in all competitions while they have now conceded in 12 away games coming into this weekend.
A 1-1 scoreline and Extra Time would not be a huge surprise here, but I think Brighton could potentially just edge Millwall out in the ninety minutes regulation. They are likely going to need at least two goals to do that and I will look for this to be the fourth FA Cup game of the weekend that produces at least three goals on the day and another one at odds against quotes too.
MY PICKS: Bournemouth-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
Burnley-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
West Ham United Win to Nil
Fulham-Liverpool Both Teams to Score
Chelsea
Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Millwall-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals
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Showing posts with label Free FA Cup Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free FA Cup Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, 16 March 2019
Friday, 15 February 2019
Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 15-18)
There was a real feeling of deflation at around 10pm on Tuesday evening once the Manchester United defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was confirmed, but I really do think that is how far Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has changed the mood at Old Trafford since taking over from Jose Mourinho.
I genuinely believed United could win the First Leg, although I was very much unsure about winning the tie as a whole and it does feel the Champions League race is run.
It is important for the players to remember that they can still make this a very successful season if they can win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premier League, especially when you think where the club were the day Mourinho was sacked.
The FA Cup is up this weekend with the Fifth Round taking centre stage while the Premier League clubs who are out of the competition get a chance to rest and recover for the big League games ahead. There are a number of lower League clubs hosting Premier League teams from Friday through to Sunday and the television companies will select those games for live coverage hoping to be able to find an upset or two. Finally it will be the turn of Chelsea and Manchester United who play on Monday evening just after the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round is made.
That does mean we are not having any Fantasy Selections this week, but those will be back in the thread for the Premier League games next weekend.
Queens Park Rangers v Watford Pick: The opening FA Cup Fifth Round tie comes from Loftus Road on Friday night as one of a number of selected games for live coverage. I am not sure Steve McClaren will be that pleased that his team are being asked to play on Friday considering Queens Park Rangers played in the League on Tuesday, but there isn't a lot the manager can do about that.
It is already a difficult enough challenge for Queens Park Rangers to take on a Premier League opponent, but Watford should be well rested having been in action last Saturday. However trying to second guess the manager is not easy and Javi Gracia making wholesale changes as he has done in the first couple of FA Cup ties will perhaps leave Watford a little vulnerable in this one.
Loftus Road is not an easy venue to play at and through the last few years where Queens Park Rangers have been struggling a number of big clubs have visited here without success. Those have come in League games as Queens Park Rangers have had miserable Cup records, but McClaren's men have won both FA Cup ties at home against Leeds United and Portsmouth and will believe they can make it a hat-trick on Friday.
Queens Park Rangers have scored a huge amount of goals at home over the last couple of months and they have managed at least two in 7 of their last 9 here in all competitions. That certainly makes them dangerous and confident of causing an upset and Watford will have to be on their toes to avoid that.
The Premier League team can be encouraged if they watched Queens Park Rangers concede four goals in home losses to Preston North End and Birmingham City in recent weeks. Watford have also been a team who have scored plenty of goals in away games since early December and I have a feeling we are going to be given an entertaining game on Friday evening.
I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous in this one, but Queens Park Rangers and Watford have shown they can score plenty of goals at home/away respectively. Neither has looked defensively sound either and I am surprised to see three or more goals being scored priced up at odds against.
My feeling is that Watford may just do enough to win here with fatigue perhaps seeing Queens Park Rangers tire after League exertions on Tuesday evening, but the Premier League club look plenty short at odds on to win. Backing goals looks a more appealing price all in all and that will be my selection from this Fifth Round tie.
Brighton v Derby County Pick: This FA Cup Fifth Round tie is a tough one to try and predict what the managers of both Brighton and Derby County will be thinking considering League matters are the priority for both Chris Hughton and Frank Lampard.
In recent weeks Brighton have slumped back towards the bottom three thanks to teams below them improving and the 1-3 home defeat to Burnley was a big blow to them. You would think they still have enough to avoid relegation, but Hughton will be aware of their slide and I do wonder if that comes into his thinking when selecting a team ahead of big Premier League games to come.
The bonus for the manager is the fact that Brighton are not due out again until a week on Tuesday because their League game with Chelsea is postponed next week as The Blues are playing in the League Cup Final. They've had plenty of time to get players ready for this one and it may mean Chris Hughton selects a strong team in a bid to rediscover the winning feeling which has been lost.
All season Frank Lampard has picked strong teams in the Cups for Derby County and he has been rewarded with some big performances. They have drawn 2-2 at both Manchester United and Southampton in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively and both times Derby County were able to win on penalties, while The Rams also pushed Chelsea in the League Cup at Stamford Bridge in what was an eventual 3-2 defeat.
The players won't be overawed by this occasion either, but Derby County have played a game during the week while Brighton were resting and have another big League game to come on Wednesday. That does potentially impact the team selection for the visitors and makes the prices look hard to oppose.
I was keen on selecting Derby County with a start on the Asian Handicap, but the schedule spot looks to favour Brighton who are also at home. What Derby County can do is give their hosts something to think about and the fact they have scored at least two goals at three Premier League grounds in the Cup already this season will give the fans belief that an upset can be created.
A lack of Brighton goals is a worry for Chris Hughton, but Derby County don't defend as well as they would like away from home and we may see goals in this one. The weather looks good for football this weekend and I do think the two teams can expose vulnerabilities the other has in defensive areas to make this another FA Cup Fifth Round tie that does have at least three goals shared out this weekend.
AFC Wimbledon v Millwall Pick: There won't be too many times clubs like AFC Wimbledon and Millwall will have the kind of opportunity to make the Quarter Final of the FA Cup as the one they are presented with this weekend.
Both sets of fans have seen their clubs have success in the FA Cup in the past and both upset Premier League clubs at home in the Fourth Round to earn their spot in this tie, but there will be a different feeling around this one. With just two wins between them and a stunning outing at Wembley Stadium the players will look to put their relegation battles in League One and the Championship respectively aside for this weekend.
In the last Round neither club were under pressure to win, but I do think AFC Wimbledon and Millwall players will have a different feeling for this one. Knowing they have a very winnable tie in front of them to reach a FA Cup Quarter Final is going to be the distraction they need to avoid to make sure each player is doing the job assigned to him and I do think this is a very close one to call.
The obvious favourite is Millwall considering they are twenty-nine places higher up the League standings than AFC Wimbledon. However you can't ignore how poorly Millwall have played away from home during this entire season and the results are not exactly the kind you would want to see from an odds on shot to win a game of football.
Millwall have perhaps been unfortunate in some of those games, but they have to be feeling the pressure a little more than AFC Wimbledon who will still believe they can use the underdog spirit to shock their higher League opponents. That pressure may have affected Millwall in a 1-0 loss to League One strugglers Rochdale in the FA Cup last season when Millwall were playing much higher up the Championship at that time and I do think they are vulnerable as the favourites.
It is hard to back an AFC Wimbledon team who have not scored enough goals and who have lost to the likes of Sunderland and Burton Albion since the win over West Ham United. Both of those clubs came down from the Championship and Millwall should have a clear edge in terms of quality in this one too.
However the situation of the fixture and AFC Wimbledon having nothing to lose gives them every chance of the upset. It can't be ignored that Millwall have struggled for away wins and the players know the weight of expectation is on them, while that 1-0 loss at Rochdale last season shows they may potentially struggle to cope with that.
Backing AFC Wimbledon with the start looks the way to go in this one as they can at least force Extra Time before they perhaps fade against a team from a higher Division. The first goal will be critical for them and if AFC Wimbledon get that I do think they will avoid defeat within the ninety minutes.
Newport County v Manchester City Pick: It might be a football game where eleven play eleven, but I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to see Manchester City as a huge favourite to beat Newport County and move through to the FA Cup Quarter Final for the second time under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.
The 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic twelve months ago has really been something that Guardiola has not forgotten and that has seen him pick strong teams in the domestic Cup competitions as they have made progression on four fronts. Heavy wins over the likes of Oxford United, Burton Albion and Rotherham United from the lower Leagues shows what Manchester City can do even when they make a few changes to the starting eleven and the squad depth is actually pretty scary.
In this one you can expect to see seasoned internationals like Danilo and Nicolas Otamendi playing in defensive areas, while Fabian Delph played at the World Cup last summer and also could come in. Both Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus are players who terrorise opponents in the Premier League so all the quality is with Manchester City and it is going to need to be a serious off day for them to lose here.
Newport County can't be completely dismissed though- a lot of the big Manchester City wins over lower League opponents have come at the Etihad Stadium where the playing surface is a carpet. Rodney Parade is far from that and it might just take a bit of time for the visitors to adjust to their surroundings.
The League Two club have beaten Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Leicester City in the FA Cup at home over the last thirteen months. Tottenham Hotspur needed an 82nd minute Harry Kane equaliser to force a Replay last season, but Manchester City don't have the same luxury with this tie needing to be completed on Saturday evening.
With that in mind I expect a slightly stronger team than the one that played and won 0-1 at Burton Albion in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg last month. Even that Manchester City team had the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero playing, but I don't think this team will be littered with the Academy players like that Second Leg line up was.
It should mean Manchester City win pretty easily on the day, but they are being asked to cover a very big handicap on a playing surface that is not easy to deal with. A Newport County goal can't be ruled out as they load the box and look for set pieces to try and disrupt Manchester City, but at the end of the day the Premier League leaders should be comfortable enough.
Comfortable means matching the wins at Oxford United and Burton Albion in the League Cup earlier this season. Manchester City won 0-3 and 0-1 on those days and I think this one is likely to be closer to the former scoreline. In the win at Oxford United, Manchester City scored twice in the final twelve minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline and I have a feeling something similar is going to happen here.
For the first 45 minutes I can see Newport County having the energy to chase their runners but I am expecting them to tire against a relentless Manchester City team. It's looking like a dry weekend so the pitch won't cut up too much and it feels Manchester City will wear down their opponents and then pull away in the second half so backing the second period to be the higher scoring half is my selection.
In the League Cup wins over Oxford United and Burton Albion at home, as well as the FA Cup wins over Rotherham United and Burnley, Manchester City scored more goals in the second half than the first. At just under odds on I think that happens here, while so looking at in-play markets may back a goal to be scored in the final ten minutes if the prices suit.
Bristol City v Wolves Pick: The first live FA Cup tie on Sunday afternoon comes from Ashton Gate and this has all the makings of a really interesting Fifth Round meeting between Bristol City and Wolves. Neither team has made it through to the latter stages of the FA Cup for a long time now and the players have to be smelling the opportunity of really making this a memorable season in the competition even if the priority for both may be finishing as high as possible in their respective Divisions.
Lee Johnson and Nuno Espirito Santo have six days to prepare their teams for their next League fixtures though and I think the managers will appreciate the chance in front of Bristol City and Wolves respectively.
Bristol City have been in fine form of late too with 9 straight wins in all competitions and they have been scoring plenty of goals at Ashton Gate. That will give them the belief they can find a way past Wolves having beaten Premier League Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this season and last season seeing off the likes of Stoke City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Ashton Gate in the League Cup on their way to the Semi Final.
That makes them dangerous and this is going to be a tough test for a Wolves team who may be pretty good defensively, but who don't earn a lot of clean sheets. Wolves needed to come from 2-0 down to earn a late draw with Shrewsbury Town in the initial FA Cup Fourth Round tie away from home, but they have won 0-2 at Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup and much will depend on what kind of team the manager selects.
Even a full strength Wolves team will be tested, but they have shown they can turn on the style away from home and picking a winner is not easy. The chances of seeing Extra Time can't be ignored, but Bristol City and Wolves tend to be involved in entertaining games over the last three seasons and that trend being continued suggests there will be a winner in normal time.
The last 5 between these clubs have all ended with at least three goals shared out and 2 of those have come at Ashton Gate. 3 of those 5 games have featured at least four goals and both teams have scored in each of those fixtures.
I do think both teams will score here and the 1-1 is perhaps the one scoreline that will let me down with my selection. However I think both teams will really want to go for this and it could mean an open, attacking game of football that features at least three or more goals shared out as Bristol City and Wolves have done in recent meetings against each other.
That's an odds against shot here and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Fifth Round tie.
Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace Pick: The second of the live televised games in the FA Cup on Sunday comes from the Keepmoat Stadium as Doncaster Rovers try and upset Premier League Crystal Palace. That is something the television companies will be looking for in this tie and the home team are in good enough form to believe they can bridge the gap to a Premier League opponent.
Being at home is the key for Doncaster Rovers who are unbeaten in 10 in front of their own fans in all competitions and they have won 8 of those games. Goals have been flowing at home with at least two scored in each of those 10 fixtures and Doncaster Rovers have something of a reputation of being able to upset higher League clubs over the last few years.
It won't be easy to knock off a Crystal Palace team who have been scoring a lot more goals away from home than they do at Selhurst Park. Part of the reason is that teams come onto their in front of their own fans and that has left spaces for a pacy front three to exploit, but it doesn't feel like Doncaster Rovers will be playing with that kind of attacking intent in mind.
Yes I do think Doncaster Rovers will get forward and try and rattle their Premier League opponents, but they will also respect the fact that they are not favourites and so will also be making sure they don't give too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack.
The mentality of the Crystal Palace players will be the key to how well they do on Sunday- if they are fully focused and respect Doncaster Rovers you would expect them to win, but Bristol City and Middlesbrough have knocked out The Eagles from domestic Cup competitions under Roy Hodgson. Both of those losses came away from home so Doncaster Rovers could come close to upsetting them too with the Premier League the priority for the former England manager.
Crystal Palace do have a week before they are back in League action so they can pick a strong team and this feels like yet another Cup tie this weekend that is going to see a lower League club contribute to a high-scoring game against a Premier League one. I did consider backing Doncaster Rovers with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap, but my overriding feeling is that is going to be a push as the visitors edge through by scoring the majority of the three goals shared out on Sunday.
I do think Doncaster Rovers will play their part, but they may also leave themselves open if they begin chasing the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Cup tie in England this weekend.
Swansea City v Brentford Pick: Both Swansea City and Brentford have to be looking at this FA Cup Fifth Round tie and really believing they have an excellent chance to not only reach the Quarter Final, but with the right draw could also play at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final.
A maximum of six Premier League clubs can make the Last Eight in the FA Cup this season and with the way the Third and Fourth Round have gone I don't think anyone will be surprised if a couple more than expected were to be beaten in the Fifth Round.
It would really open the door for the winner of this tie depending on the draw on Monday and I think that does create some pressure on the players. At least the Swansea City players have the experience of playing in the Quarter Final eleven months ago and I do believe home advantage is going to see them edge out Brentford in this one.
The Bees have improved away from home in the last couple of months, but they are still a team who struggle to produce wins on their travels. On the other hand Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5 games at the Liberty Stadium and Graham Potter has them playing some very good football here.
Swansea City have a good record against Brentford at home, but host them for the first time in over ten years. They did win 2-3 at Griffin Park to give them a slight mental advantage in this Fifth Round tie and I think Swansea City are going to edge it.
I will not be surprised if this is yet another high-scoring FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I give Swansea City enough of an edge to back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Home advantage should just see the pendulum swing in their favour and Swansea City's run of 3 wins in 4 games here can be extended to put their name into the draw for the Quarter Final.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw for the Fifth Round of the FA Cup was made there was only one tie that leaped off the page and it has been selected for live television coverage on Monday evening. A part of the problem was the Chelsea participation in the Europa League on Thursday evening, but that isn't going to make Manchester United fans feel any better having to travel to London for a late Monday night fixture.
The fans are secondary to the television money will come as no surprise to those who regularly attend matches, but there isn't much you can do about that now.
On the field the fixture looks to be coming at a better time for Chelsea than it does for Manchester United despite the fact the visitors have had two extra days to prepare for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie. Unfortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United are coming off a loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League which has really burst what had been a positive bubble for the club.
Bouncing back would have been much more likely if both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard were available, but muscle injuries suffered last Tuesday means they are unlikely to be risked here. It gives Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku another opportunity to impress after both were key to the win over Arsenal in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the Emirates Stadium last month, but neither has really been a big part of the Solskjaer plans and may be under pressure to deliver.
Chelsea may have played on Thursday and they may not be long off the embarrassing loss to Manchester City in the Premier League, but a win in Malmo would have just eased some tensions. They have also been in much better form at home in the last six weeks than on their travels and Chelsea have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge while scoring two or more goals in each of those.
The Blues also have a very strong recent record against Manchester United with 9 games unbeaten against them at Stamford Bridge. They've also won the last 4 FA Cup ties between the clubs including beating Manchester United 1-0 in each of the last two seasons (one Quarter Final and one Final). That has to give them belief they can make it a hat-trick here, but Manchester United can play their part and offer a threat on the counter attack as they did at the Emirates Stadium last month.
Both teams will be looking to get on the front foot and for me Chelsea look short considering they have shown signs of being a team that drop heads when they fall behind. If United were at full strength I would fancy them to win here, but the injuries may just have come at the wrong time.
I still expect a reaction from the players after the 0-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Manchester United should have their chances on the counter attack. With Chelsea being in better form at home this could be a decent FA Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy on Monday evening too, and I think it is going to be one that produces at least three goals.
In recent seasons games between Manchester United and Chelsea have been tight affairs, but the outlook and approach of the two managers suggests this one will be different. A Jose Mourinho led Manchester United team scored twice here back in October and Ole Gunner Solskjaer is going to want his team to get forward.
There remain serious defensive issues that can be exploited by Chelsea too though and I think both teams will hit at least one goal in this one. Neither manager will want to settle for Extra Time or penalties so I imagine a positive game develops through much of the evening and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.
MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Sporting Bet
Brighton-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor
AFC Wimbledon + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Newport County-Manchester City Second Half Highest Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Bristol City-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power
Doncaster Rovers-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Paddy Power
I genuinely believed United could win the First Leg, although I was very much unsure about winning the tie as a whole and it does feel the Champions League race is run.
It is important for the players to remember that they can still make this a very successful season if they can win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premier League, especially when you think where the club were the day Mourinho was sacked.
The FA Cup is up this weekend with the Fifth Round taking centre stage while the Premier League clubs who are out of the competition get a chance to rest and recover for the big League games ahead. There are a number of lower League clubs hosting Premier League teams from Friday through to Sunday and the television companies will select those games for live coverage hoping to be able to find an upset or two. Finally it will be the turn of Chelsea and Manchester United who play on Monday evening just after the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round is made.
That does mean we are not having any Fantasy Selections this week, but those will be back in the thread for the Premier League games next weekend.
Queens Park Rangers v Watford Pick: The opening FA Cup Fifth Round tie comes from Loftus Road on Friday night as one of a number of selected games for live coverage. I am not sure Steve McClaren will be that pleased that his team are being asked to play on Friday considering Queens Park Rangers played in the League on Tuesday, but there isn't a lot the manager can do about that.
It is already a difficult enough challenge for Queens Park Rangers to take on a Premier League opponent, but Watford should be well rested having been in action last Saturday. However trying to second guess the manager is not easy and Javi Gracia making wholesale changes as he has done in the first couple of FA Cup ties will perhaps leave Watford a little vulnerable in this one.
Loftus Road is not an easy venue to play at and through the last few years where Queens Park Rangers have been struggling a number of big clubs have visited here without success. Those have come in League games as Queens Park Rangers have had miserable Cup records, but McClaren's men have won both FA Cup ties at home against Leeds United and Portsmouth and will believe they can make it a hat-trick on Friday.
Queens Park Rangers have scored a huge amount of goals at home over the last couple of months and they have managed at least two in 7 of their last 9 here in all competitions. That certainly makes them dangerous and confident of causing an upset and Watford will have to be on their toes to avoid that.
The Premier League team can be encouraged if they watched Queens Park Rangers concede four goals in home losses to Preston North End and Birmingham City in recent weeks. Watford have also been a team who have scored plenty of goals in away games since early December and I have a feeling we are going to be given an entertaining game on Friday evening.
I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous in this one, but Queens Park Rangers and Watford have shown they can score plenty of goals at home/away respectively. Neither has looked defensively sound either and I am surprised to see three or more goals being scored priced up at odds against.
My feeling is that Watford may just do enough to win here with fatigue perhaps seeing Queens Park Rangers tire after League exertions on Tuesday evening, but the Premier League club look plenty short at odds on to win. Backing goals looks a more appealing price all in all and that will be my selection from this Fifth Round tie.
Brighton v Derby County Pick: This FA Cup Fifth Round tie is a tough one to try and predict what the managers of both Brighton and Derby County will be thinking considering League matters are the priority for both Chris Hughton and Frank Lampard.
In recent weeks Brighton have slumped back towards the bottom three thanks to teams below them improving and the 1-3 home defeat to Burnley was a big blow to them. You would think they still have enough to avoid relegation, but Hughton will be aware of their slide and I do wonder if that comes into his thinking when selecting a team ahead of big Premier League games to come.
The bonus for the manager is the fact that Brighton are not due out again until a week on Tuesday because their League game with Chelsea is postponed next week as The Blues are playing in the League Cup Final. They've had plenty of time to get players ready for this one and it may mean Chris Hughton selects a strong team in a bid to rediscover the winning feeling which has been lost.
All season Frank Lampard has picked strong teams in the Cups for Derby County and he has been rewarded with some big performances. They have drawn 2-2 at both Manchester United and Southampton in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively and both times Derby County were able to win on penalties, while The Rams also pushed Chelsea in the League Cup at Stamford Bridge in what was an eventual 3-2 defeat.
The players won't be overawed by this occasion either, but Derby County have played a game during the week while Brighton were resting and have another big League game to come on Wednesday. That does potentially impact the team selection for the visitors and makes the prices look hard to oppose.
I was keen on selecting Derby County with a start on the Asian Handicap, but the schedule spot looks to favour Brighton who are also at home. What Derby County can do is give their hosts something to think about and the fact they have scored at least two goals at three Premier League grounds in the Cup already this season will give the fans belief that an upset can be created.
A lack of Brighton goals is a worry for Chris Hughton, but Derby County don't defend as well as they would like away from home and we may see goals in this one. The weather looks good for football this weekend and I do think the two teams can expose vulnerabilities the other has in defensive areas to make this another FA Cup Fifth Round tie that does have at least three goals shared out this weekend.
AFC Wimbledon v Millwall Pick: There won't be too many times clubs like AFC Wimbledon and Millwall will have the kind of opportunity to make the Quarter Final of the FA Cup as the one they are presented with this weekend.
Both sets of fans have seen their clubs have success in the FA Cup in the past and both upset Premier League clubs at home in the Fourth Round to earn their spot in this tie, but there will be a different feeling around this one. With just two wins between them and a stunning outing at Wembley Stadium the players will look to put their relegation battles in League One and the Championship respectively aside for this weekend.
In the last Round neither club were under pressure to win, but I do think AFC Wimbledon and Millwall players will have a different feeling for this one. Knowing they have a very winnable tie in front of them to reach a FA Cup Quarter Final is going to be the distraction they need to avoid to make sure each player is doing the job assigned to him and I do think this is a very close one to call.
The obvious favourite is Millwall considering they are twenty-nine places higher up the League standings than AFC Wimbledon. However you can't ignore how poorly Millwall have played away from home during this entire season and the results are not exactly the kind you would want to see from an odds on shot to win a game of football.
Millwall have perhaps been unfortunate in some of those games, but they have to be feeling the pressure a little more than AFC Wimbledon who will still believe they can use the underdog spirit to shock their higher League opponents. That pressure may have affected Millwall in a 1-0 loss to League One strugglers Rochdale in the FA Cup last season when Millwall were playing much higher up the Championship at that time and I do think they are vulnerable as the favourites.
It is hard to back an AFC Wimbledon team who have not scored enough goals and who have lost to the likes of Sunderland and Burton Albion since the win over West Ham United. Both of those clubs came down from the Championship and Millwall should have a clear edge in terms of quality in this one too.
However the situation of the fixture and AFC Wimbledon having nothing to lose gives them every chance of the upset. It can't be ignored that Millwall have struggled for away wins and the players know the weight of expectation is on them, while that 1-0 loss at Rochdale last season shows they may potentially struggle to cope with that.
Backing AFC Wimbledon with the start looks the way to go in this one as they can at least force Extra Time before they perhaps fade against a team from a higher Division. The first goal will be critical for them and if AFC Wimbledon get that I do think they will avoid defeat within the ninety minutes.
Newport County v Manchester City Pick: It might be a football game where eleven play eleven, but I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to see Manchester City as a huge favourite to beat Newport County and move through to the FA Cup Quarter Final for the second time under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.
The 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic twelve months ago has really been something that Guardiola has not forgotten and that has seen him pick strong teams in the domestic Cup competitions as they have made progression on four fronts. Heavy wins over the likes of Oxford United, Burton Albion and Rotherham United from the lower Leagues shows what Manchester City can do even when they make a few changes to the starting eleven and the squad depth is actually pretty scary.
In this one you can expect to see seasoned internationals like Danilo and Nicolas Otamendi playing in defensive areas, while Fabian Delph played at the World Cup last summer and also could come in. Both Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus are players who terrorise opponents in the Premier League so all the quality is with Manchester City and it is going to need to be a serious off day for them to lose here.
Newport County can't be completely dismissed though- a lot of the big Manchester City wins over lower League opponents have come at the Etihad Stadium where the playing surface is a carpet. Rodney Parade is far from that and it might just take a bit of time for the visitors to adjust to their surroundings.
The League Two club have beaten Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Leicester City in the FA Cup at home over the last thirteen months. Tottenham Hotspur needed an 82nd minute Harry Kane equaliser to force a Replay last season, but Manchester City don't have the same luxury with this tie needing to be completed on Saturday evening.
With that in mind I expect a slightly stronger team than the one that played and won 0-1 at Burton Albion in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg last month. Even that Manchester City team had the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero playing, but I don't think this team will be littered with the Academy players like that Second Leg line up was.
It should mean Manchester City win pretty easily on the day, but they are being asked to cover a very big handicap on a playing surface that is not easy to deal with. A Newport County goal can't be ruled out as they load the box and look for set pieces to try and disrupt Manchester City, but at the end of the day the Premier League leaders should be comfortable enough.
Comfortable means matching the wins at Oxford United and Burton Albion in the League Cup earlier this season. Manchester City won 0-3 and 0-1 on those days and I think this one is likely to be closer to the former scoreline. In the win at Oxford United, Manchester City scored twice in the final twelve minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline and I have a feeling something similar is going to happen here.
For the first 45 minutes I can see Newport County having the energy to chase their runners but I am expecting them to tire against a relentless Manchester City team. It's looking like a dry weekend so the pitch won't cut up too much and it feels Manchester City will wear down their opponents and then pull away in the second half so backing the second period to be the higher scoring half is my selection.
In the League Cup wins over Oxford United and Burton Albion at home, as well as the FA Cup wins over Rotherham United and Burnley, Manchester City scored more goals in the second half than the first. At just under odds on I think that happens here, while so looking at in-play markets may back a goal to be scored in the final ten minutes if the prices suit.
Bristol City v Wolves Pick: The first live FA Cup tie on Sunday afternoon comes from Ashton Gate and this has all the makings of a really interesting Fifth Round meeting between Bristol City and Wolves. Neither team has made it through to the latter stages of the FA Cup for a long time now and the players have to be smelling the opportunity of really making this a memorable season in the competition even if the priority for both may be finishing as high as possible in their respective Divisions.
Lee Johnson and Nuno Espirito Santo have six days to prepare their teams for their next League fixtures though and I think the managers will appreciate the chance in front of Bristol City and Wolves respectively.
Bristol City have been in fine form of late too with 9 straight wins in all competitions and they have been scoring plenty of goals at Ashton Gate. That will give them the belief they can find a way past Wolves having beaten Premier League Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this season and last season seeing off the likes of Stoke City, Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Ashton Gate in the League Cup on their way to the Semi Final.
That makes them dangerous and this is going to be a tough test for a Wolves team who may be pretty good defensively, but who don't earn a lot of clean sheets. Wolves needed to come from 2-0 down to earn a late draw with Shrewsbury Town in the initial FA Cup Fourth Round tie away from home, but they have won 0-2 at Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup and much will depend on what kind of team the manager selects.
Even a full strength Wolves team will be tested, but they have shown they can turn on the style away from home and picking a winner is not easy. The chances of seeing Extra Time can't be ignored, but Bristol City and Wolves tend to be involved in entertaining games over the last three seasons and that trend being continued suggests there will be a winner in normal time.
The last 5 between these clubs have all ended with at least three goals shared out and 2 of those have come at Ashton Gate. 3 of those 5 games have featured at least four goals and both teams have scored in each of those fixtures.
I do think both teams will score here and the 1-1 is perhaps the one scoreline that will let me down with my selection. However I think both teams will really want to go for this and it could mean an open, attacking game of football that features at least three or more goals shared out as Bristol City and Wolves have done in recent meetings against each other.
That's an odds against shot here and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Fifth Round tie.
Doncaster Rovers v Crystal Palace Pick: The second of the live televised games in the FA Cup on Sunday comes from the Keepmoat Stadium as Doncaster Rovers try and upset Premier League Crystal Palace. That is something the television companies will be looking for in this tie and the home team are in good enough form to believe they can bridge the gap to a Premier League opponent.
Being at home is the key for Doncaster Rovers who are unbeaten in 10 in front of their own fans in all competitions and they have won 8 of those games. Goals have been flowing at home with at least two scored in each of those 10 fixtures and Doncaster Rovers have something of a reputation of being able to upset higher League clubs over the last few years.
It won't be easy to knock off a Crystal Palace team who have been scoring a lot more goals away from home than they do at Selhurst Park. Part of the reason is that teams come onto their in front of their own fans and that has left spaces for a pacy front three to exploit, but it doesn't feel like Doncaster Rovers will be playing with that kind of attacking intent in mind.
Yes I do think Doncaster Rovers will get forward and try and rattle their Premier League opponents, but they will also respect the fact that they are not favourites and so will also be making sure they don't give too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack.
The mentality of the Crystal Palace players will be the key to how well they do on Sunday- if they are fully focused and respect Doncaster Rovers you would expect them to win, but Bristol City and Middlesbrough have knocked out The Eagles from domestic Cup competitions under Roy Hodgson. Both of those losses came away from home so Doncaster Rovers could come close to upsetting them too with the Premier League the priority for the former England manager.
Crystal Palace do have a week before they are back in League action so they can pick a strong team and this feels like yet another Cup tie this weekend that is going to see a lower League club contribute to a high-scoring game against a Premier League one. I did consider backing Doncaster Rovers with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap, but my overriding feeling is that is going to be a push as the visitors edge through by scoring the majority of the three goals shared out on Sunday.
I do think Doncaster Rovers will play their part, but they may also leave themselves open if they begin chasing the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Cup tie in England this weekend.
Swansea City v Brentford Pick: Both Swansea City and Brentford have to be looking at this FA Cup Fifth Round tie and really believing they have an excellent chance to not only reach the Quarter Final, but with the right draw could also play at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final.
A maximum of six Premier League clubs can make the Last Eight in the FA Cup this season and with the way the Third and Fourth Round have gone I don't think anyone will be surprised if a couple more than expected were to be beaten in the Fifth Round.
It would really open the door for the winner of this tie depending on the draw on Monday and I think that does create some pressure on the players. At least the Swansea City players have the experience of playing in the Quarter Final eleven months ago and I do believe home advantage is going to see them edge out Brentford in this one.
The Bees have improved away from home in the last couple of months, but they are still a team who struggle to produce wins on their travels. On the other hand Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5 games at the Liberty Stadium and Graham Potter has them playing some very good football here.
Swansea City have a good record against Brentford at home, but host them for the first time in over ten years. They did win 2-3 at Griffin Park to give them a slight mental advantage in this Fifth Round tie and I think Swansea City are going to edge it.
I will not be surprised if this is yet another high-scoring FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I give Swansea City enough of an edge to back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Home advantage should just see the pendulum swing in their favour and Swansea City's run of 3 wins in 4 games here can be extended to put their name into the draw for the Quarter Final.
Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw for the Fifth Round of the FA Cup was made there was only one tie that leaped off the page and it has been selected for live television coverage on Monday evening. A part of the problem was the Chelsea participation in the Europa League on Thursday evening, but that isn't going to make Manchester United fans feel any better having to travel to London for a late Monday night fixture.
The fans are secondary to the television money will come as no surprise to those who regularly attend matches, but there isn't much you can do about that now.
On the field the fixture looks to be coming at a better time for Chelsea than it does for Manchester United despite the fact the visitors have had two extra days to prepare for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie. Unfortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United are coming off a loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League which has really burst what had been a positive bubble for the club.
Bouncing back would have been much more likely if both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard were available, but muscle injuries suffered last Tuesday means they are unlikely to be risked here. It gives Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku another opportunity to impress after both were key to the win over Arsenal in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the Emirates Stadium last month, but neither has really been a big part of the Solskjaer plans and may be under pressure to deliver.
Chelsea may have played on Thursday and they may not be long off the embarrassing loss to Manchester City in the Premier League, but a win in Malmo would have just eased some tensions. They have also been in much better form at home in the last six weeks than on their travels and Chelsea have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge while scoring two or more goals in each of those.
The Blues also have a very strong recent record against Manchester United with 9 games unbeaten against them at Stamford Bridge. They've also won the last 4 FA Cup ties between the clubs including beating Manchester United 1-0 in each of the last two seasons (one Quarter Final and one Final). That has to give them belief they can make it a hat-trick here, but Manchester United can play their part and offer a threat on the counter attack as they did at the Emirates Stadium last month.
Both teams will be looking to get on the front foot and for me Chelsea look short considering they have shown signs of being a team that drop heads when they fall behind. If United were at full strength I would fancy them to win here, but the injuries may just have come at the wrong time.
I still expect a reaction from the players after the 0-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Manchester United should have their chances on the counter attack. With Chelsea being in better form at home this could be a decent FA Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy on Monday evening too, and I think it is going to be one that produces at least three goals.
In recent seasons games between Manchester United and Chelsea have been tight affairs, but the outlook and approach of the two managers suggests this one will be different. A Jose Mourinho led Manchester United team scored twice here back in October and Ole Gunner Solskjaer is going to want his team to get forward.
There remain serious defensive issues that can be exploited by Chelsea too though and I think both teams will hit at least one goal in this one. Neither manager will want to settle for Extra Time or penalties so I imagine a positive game develops through much of the evening and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.
MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Sporting Bet
Brighton-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor
AFC Wimbledon + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Newport County-Manchester City Second Half Highest Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Bristol City-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power
Doncaster Rovers-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Paddy Power
Friday, 25 January 2019
Weekend Football Picks 2019 (January 25-28)
Honestly it doesn't feel right getting to the weekend football and not having either a Manchester United game to look forward to (I hate a Friday kick off, makes the weekend feel much longer than it should do) nor having too much Fantasy Football viewing to at least pass the time.
The Premier League is back on Tuesday so I will have my Fantasy choices from the games as well as my breakdown of how I think the fixtures will work out, while I am also working out how to change the way I produce the Fantasy selections.
That may not be entirely in place until later in the month in February, but it is something I am considering to make those selections more meaningful to readers.
The final weekend in January is reserved for the FA Cup Fourth Round ties and there are some big ones to be played. This is the last Round that will have any Replays as the FA have changed up the format and will remove Replays from the Fifth Round onwards to make sure teams are not being asked to really congest the remaining months of the season with additional fixtures, especially those still involved in European competition.
No will dispute the tie of the Round comes from the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal host Manchester United as a second team from the top six of the Premier League will be exiting the competition. Others may follow, but at least one is guaranteed to join Liverpool in having a free weekend in the middle of February which has been reserved for FA Cup Fifth Round ties.
The breakdown of the Fourth Round ties can be read below.
Bristol City v Bolton Wanderers Pick: At this stage of the competition the FA Cup is perhaps not the priority for managers up and down the country and that kind of blasé attitude about the competition has filtered down to teams in the Championship too.
Two of those clubs meet on Friday night in a game that will go under the radar because two of the top Premier League clubs meet in the tie of the Round at the same time.
Both Bristol City and Bolton Wanderers are prioritising the Championship for different reasons- Bristol City are on the brink of cracking into the top six, while Bolton Wanderers are fighting against relegation.
The visitors in this tie have a huge game in the League to come on Tuesday when Bolton Wanderers host Reading and I have to think Phil Parkinson is already preparing for that one. It may mean not risking key players, while Bristol City have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect and have won 5 in a row so Lee Johnson's motivation in this tie may be somewhat greater than the manager of the opponents in this fixture.
Bristol City also have eight days before they play again compared to Bolton Wanderers who play in a few days time and the home team have already beaten The Trotters here this month.
It was a dominant performance from Bristol City regardless of the narrow 2-1 win and I think they are likely going to dictate much of the play in this one too. Neither team will want to add to the congested fixture list by being forced into a Replay, but I don't think Bristol City will need one as they can win this fixture with at least two goals featured on the night.
Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw was made for the FA Cup Fourth Round the tie of the Round was the fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United who are the two most successful clubs in the history of this famous old trophy.
It could be a pivotal fixture for the two managers too as they look to put their clubs in a position to win some silverware, but it may also serve as something of a momentum builder in the race for the top four places in the Premier League.
There may not be points on the line, but Manchester United have won 7 straight under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and beating another top four rival away from home will be a big confidence boost. They did that at Tottenham Hotspur a couple of weeks ago and denting the confidence of Arsenal may just give Manchester United a leg up on those teams going into February.
Unai Emery may be thinking the same having seen his Arsenal team beat Chelsea last weekend and doing the same against Manchester United in the Cup may indicate his team are through a poor patch of form. It could also be a win that gives one of these teams the mental edge with the Premier League fixture between the two just six weeks away and I think there is enough on the line to think two strong teams will be picked.
The Arsenal line up is arguably easier to predict, but I would not be surprised if Manchester United make changes in the final third and allow Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez to both start. Those changes may have an impact in the type of speed and energy offered in the final third, but Marcus Rashford could need a rest and Solskjaer does want options in attacking areas with the fixtures coming thick and fast over the next month.
Neither defence offers a lot of encouragement and I do think this is going to develop into a fantastic, attacking Cup tie. Both teams will know how much more comfortable they are on the front foot and either team earning a clean sheet would be something of a surprise to me.
There were four goals shared out at Old Trafford when they met in December and the desire to avoid a Replay should mean both managers set their teams up to be very attack minded. Picking a winner is not easy because Manchester United look to have rounded into nice form, but Arsenal have to be respected as a team who have been much better at home than on their travels.
I would love to see United do this and continue the momentum into the next three League games ahead of the Champions League resumption against Paris Saint-Germain, but the best selection for the game looks to be backing at least three goals to be shared out on what is going to be a chilly London evening.
Accrington Stanley v Derby County Pick: The television companies may have picked this tie anticipating Southampton would be the opponent for League One Accrington Stanley, but it was Derby County who upset those plans by knocking out the Premier League club.
While the League may be the priority, Derby County have seen some strong teams named by Frank Lampard in the domestic Cup competitions and I would expect they are going to be good enough to win here.
Accrington Stanley did beat Ipswich Town from the Championship in the last Round, but Derby County are a much tougher test and the home team have not been in great form.
I expect they can cause some problems on a pitch that may not be the best and with the home support behind them, but I would expect the Derby County quality to come through in a win here. The home team may play a part though with the goals they have managed at the Wham Stadium so backing the higher League club to come through a game featuring two or more goals is the selection.
Brighton v West Brom Pick: The FA Cup can be a very difficult competition to work out especially in January when teams still feel Wembley is far enough away that they can rotate their squads to freshen things up.
I think both Brighton and West Brom may be thinking about League matters and making sure their squads are not being overly stretched ahead of a busy time of the season when you want to begin making a positive run to the finish line.
Home advantage should give Brighton an edge and they did reach the Quarter Final of the FA Cup under Chris Hughton last season. However that was the best run Brighton have had in the FA Cup since the 2011/12 season when they were beaten in the Fifth Round at Anfield.
Unlike their hosts, West Brom have had some real success in the FA Cup in recent times without quite making it to Wembley Stadium for the Semi Final. They will be looking for a fourth appearance in the Fifth Round in the last five seasons, but Darren Moore knows a strong Cup run won't keep him in his job if The Baggies miss out on promotion to the Premier League.
It may be a tight game, but I think Brighton may edge out their visitors with perhaps more motivation in the home team than I am giving them credit for. The game at Fulham on Tuesday is a huge one for Brighton and that is perhaps skewing my feelings somewhat, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this one knowing a draw will return half of the stake.
Doncaster Rovers v Oldham Athletic Pick: You have to imagine both Grant McCann and Pete Wild will be trying to take away the pressure from their Doncaster Rovers and Oldham Athletic players respectively by making sure they focus on this FA Cup Fourth Round tie rather than what could lie ahead.
With teams down to the final sixteen in the next Round the chances of landing a huge tie won't be lost on the Chairmen of either club and the financial rewards that could be in the offering.
Neither Doncaster Rovers or Oldham Athletic would have wanted to face the other at this stage of the FA Cup but they have to deal with the situation and this could be a very good Cup tie. Both teams have to want to take chances to win this tie and both have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals of late which suggests this will follow suit.
Games between these clubs at The Keepmoat Stadium have tended to be low-scoring in recent seasons with the last couple ending 1-1. However Doncaster Rovers have scored at least two goals in 7 straight home games in all competitions and Oldham Athletic have conceded that number in 3 of their last 5 away games.
On the other side Oldham Athletic have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 7 away games and Doncaster Rovers have conceded at least two goals in 2 of their last 3 here.
I have to say I do give the edge to Doncaster Rovers in the tie though and I fancy they will be able to progress at the first time of asking. Goals may be shared out in the game, but I will back Doncaster Rovers to win a fixture featuring two or more goals at odds against.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: The pitch may not have been to his liking, but Pep Guardiola has to be happy that the majority of his players came through unscathed against Burton Albion in their 0-1 win on Wednesday. With one Cup Final secured, the manager will turn his attention to guiding Manchester City ahead in the FA Cup when they host Burnley on Saturday.
There will be more changes to the Manchester City team but I think the manager is definitely going to go with a more recognisable eleven than the one that started at the Pirelli Stadium. A couple of the youngsters may keep their places, but I don't think Guardiola will want to risk having to play a Replay and Manchester City have proven to be far too good for Burnley in the last eighteen months.
In that time Burnley have visited the Etihad Stadium three times and in each visit they have conceded one more goal from three to four to five.
That will be a concern for Sean Dyche considering Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home games played in January, but ultimately the Cup is not an important competition for Burnley. Instead his focus will be on the second trip to Manchester coming up on Tuesday as Burnley fight and scratch for their Premier League lives and I imagine the team selection will reflect that.
If Manchester City pick a team anything like what I am expecting I can see them beating Burnley comfortably for the fourth time in a row at home. All three previous wins have come by margins of three or more goals and I am going to back Manchester City to reach that level again as they move through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup before turning their attention back to the Premier League with a game at Newcastle United to come on Tuesday.
Burnley will also look to turn back to the Premier League where they host Southampton in a huge game next Saturday. First they have to face the other club from Manchester, United, on Tuesday but Sean Dyche should have his key players well rested for that fixture.
Middlesbrough v Newport County Pick: This might not be the most important match in the season for Middlesbrough, but I don't think they can really afford to go into a run of facing West Brom, Leeds United and Sheffield United off an upset loss to a League Two side.
Any upset won't matter to Tony Pulis if Middlesbrough were to win those games, but it will be much tougher to explain away a poor run if some momentum is lost this weekend with a 5 game unbeaten run to protect.
In all honesty Middlesbrough should be too good for Newport County even if the home team were to make some changes to the line up to rest some key players. They have a week before they are playing again so Pulis can still pick a strong team and getting through to the FA Cup Fifth Round will still be something to aim for even if the League is the priority.
Middlesbrough have to be wary of a Newport County team that may be playing in League Two but who have beaten both Leeds United and Leicester City in the FA Cup over the last thirteen months. They even held Tottenham Hotspur, but all of those games were at home and Newport County have simply not been as productive away from Rodney Parade.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 on their travels including the last 4 in a row and those have come at a lower level than the one they are dealing with on Saturday.
Middlesbrough's lack of goals is a concern, but they did manage to knock five past Peterborough United from League One in the last Round and I think they will be a little too good for Newport County in this one too. With that in mind I will back Middlesbrough on the Asian Handicap to progress through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup which is played after those three big League games I mentioned will be played.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: Determining the motivation of managers is a big key to working out how some of these FA Cup Fourth Round ties are going to go and I have to believe Javi Gracia is much more interested in a deep Cup run than Rafa Benitez is.
The layers seem to have that in their minds too with Watford going to the North East as a considerable favourite to win this match. They are odds against, but Watford being favoured to win at Newcastle United is always a big deal and much of that has to be down to the teams selected by Newcastle United in the two FA Cup Third Round ties against Blackburn Rovers.
The Spaniard has made it clear that the Premier League is the priority and the squad is not able to cope with the Cup and League together. With two League games to be played in the next eight days, Benitez may be resting key players and giving some of the young players another chance to impress.
Beating Blackburn Rovers is one thing, but beating a motivated Watford is another altogether and I would imagine Gracia will be keen on overseeing a strong Cup run. Performances in the Premier League suggest Watford have more than enough to survive in the top flight so there is no reason to not have a go at the FA Cup.
Things are complicated by the midweek set of Premier League games to come, but Watford are not due out until Wednesday and points may not be as important as getting through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup. At least that may be the case for the next few days and I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap to earn their place in the Fifth Round.
I will back Watford on the 0 ball Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw because it is difficult to believe in them as the away favourite. However Watford have been scoring enough goals on their travels to make me believe they won't lose and I will look for them to have enough experience to edge out a much changed Newcastle United team.
Shrewsbury Town v Wolves Pick: Playing away from home in the FA Cup against a lower League club may offer some trepidation for Premier League players knowing how they will be received if they are upset in those fixtures.
Things have changed from years gone by though and these days you are less likely to be asked to play on tremendously poor pitches as you would have done before. This should make things more comfortable for a passing side like Wolves, although the temperatures in the United Kingdom have dipped and it could have hardened the Montgomery Waters Meadow playing surface.
It is still a huge ask for Sam Ricketts to mastermind an upset over the club he captained to the League One title in the 2013/14 season. The new manager has yet to have the kind of impact he would have liked with his Shrewsbury Town team and 1 win from the last 8 games in all competitions does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Shrewsbury Town also saw a long unbeaten run at home come to an end in their 0-3 defeat to Charlton Athletic last time out and I do think it will be very hard to contain their visitors.
Nuno Espirito Santo picked a strong team in the win over Liverpool in the Third Round and I do think the FA Cup is a realistic target for a Wolves team who have shown they can compete with the best in the Premier League. They are back in Premier League action during the week, but Wolves won't want to add to a February fixture list by taking chances with this fixture and having to play a Replay.
I imagine the team selection will reflect that and Wolves have shown they are very productive on their travels throughout this season. This is a team who does have goals in the side and I think they are going to be able to hit Shrewsbury Town on the break to complete the victory in this Fourth Round tie.
Wolves should be too good for a struggling League One team on what should be a decent playing surface and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Swansea City v Gillingham Pick: Both teams have important League games to come on Tuesday, but the chance to progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup has to excite both sets of players ahead of this weekend.
You can really earn a big tie once you reach the Fifth Round of the FA Cup, but I think it is a big ask of Gillingham to win at the ground of a higher League club who look to be rounding into some very good form.
Gillingham have been playing some decent stuff of their own and the results away from home have to be respected, but the standard of opponent does go up significantly in this one.
Last season Swansea City were playing in the Premier League and their comfortable win over Aston Villa earned their spot in the FA Cup Fourth Round. Getting into the Play Offs in the Championship is the target for Graham Potter and Swansea City and they do have that important game with Birmingham City to come on Tuesday, but they can keep the momentum going having won 3 of their last 4 games.
Beating Gillingham won't be straight-forward if there are too many changes made by Swansea City to their starting eleven, but the visitors have been struggling and can concede too many goals in a lower Division. That should show up here and I will back Swansea City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Everton Pick: This is a very interesting FA Cup Fourth Round tie and I have to admit I was taken aback at seeing Everton at odds on to win at the New Den considering the form they have been in. 4 losses from their last 5 away games is not ideal and while those have come in the Premier League I do have to factor in a loss of confidence into this fixture.
They are facing a Millwall team who have been much more inconsistent this season than twelve months ago, but who have remained tough to beat in front of their own fans. It happened the last time Millwall played here, but 2 losses in 10 games at home in all competitions shows this is going to be anything but a straight-forward day that odds on quotes would have you believe.
Everton certainly have the talent to win here and when they put their qualities together they can be very hard to play. Marco Silva must know he needs a strong finish to the season if he wants to remain in charge of the club and so there is real pressure on him to extract a performance from his players on a difficult ground.
Scoring enough goals has been something of a problem for Everton and this is a Millwall side who beat Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester City a couple of years ago on a fabulous Cup run through to the Quarter Final. Fulham did win here in the League Cup earlier this season, but that was a Millwall team that started the season quite poorly and I do think the confidence will be much higher for an upset in this one.
I am not quite sure they have enough to do that, but Millwall can certainly make a game of this and they have the ability to at least earn a Replay in ten days time. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go in a fixture where Everton look very, very short.
AFC Wimbledon v West Ham United Pick: The last FA Cup Fourth Round tie to be played on Saturday comes from the Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium as AFC Wimbledon look to do a little better when they host Premier League West Ham United for the second time this season.
These teams met in the League Cup and AFC Wimbledon actually took the lead, but a sending off inside the first 20 minutes left them in a very difficult position and eventually West Ham United took over.
This is a big FA Cup tie for West Ham United with fans believing they have every chance of a deep run in the competition. The Premier League looks to be in good nick for The Hammers and so Manuel Pellegrini will be expected to pick a side that is good enough to progress from this Fourth Round tie.
I do think Pellegrini will make changes though and West Ham United are a very hard team to get a read on with inconsistent results a feature of the team over the last month. However there is enough class in the final third to give them the edge over an AFC Wimbledon team propping up the rest of League One and in a real fight to avoid their first club relegation.
When they met in the League Cup West Ham United were in a poor run of form and confidence was not great, but they should be much better now. Having won here already I would expect The Hammers to be able to frank that win with another on Saturday and I think they won't be caught cold as they were in the League Cup.
A stronger West Ham United team should be picked and AFC Wimbledon have suffered back to back heavy home losses in League One. Heads could drop if they were to fall behind in this one and I will back West Ham United to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: For 45 minutes Tottenham Hotspur looked lost on Thursday as they found themselves 2-0 down at Stamford Bridge, but they were much better in the second half and perhaps unfortunate to lose.
The squad is completely stretched at the moment and while Mauricio Pochettino would want to avoid a second Cup exit in a matter of days, he has to find a way to freshen things up.
Three key forwards are missing and Ben Davies is the latest to join a growing injury list. With just a few days before having to return to Premier League action with two games to be played in that competition over the next eight days, Pochettino has some big decisions to make.
The same can be said for Crystal Palace and Roy Hodgson who will pay a lot of respect to the FA Cup, but will also recognise that League games against Southampton and Fulham are vital to keeping his club in the Premier League for another season.
In the last Round Hodgson could afford to make changes against a League Two opponent, but he may be under more pressure to produce a stronger team with the feeling that Tottenham Hotspur are there for the taking.
It makes this a very difficult game to call, but what has been noticeable in Crystal Palace games hosting Tottenham Hotspur is the lack of goals. In a lot of Crystal Palace games at Selhurst Park that has been the case this season, while Tottenham Hotspur are not the same without three of their key attacking players.
A single goal could be enough to decide this tie one way or the other and I am going to back less than three goals to be produced in this Fourth Round tie.
Chelsea v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The 6pm kick off time is a very strange one for a Sunday in England and it really doesn't account for the Sheffield Wednesday fans travelling to West London in huge numbers.
While I try and get over my utter 'surprise' that match going fans are ignored, the fixture on the pitch looks like one that Chelsea should be able to win without too many issues.
Clouding things is the fact that a strong starting eleven was needed to see off Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg on Thursday and the rotations that are going to be made should mean Chelsea are more vulnerable than they would usually be.
However Sheffield Wednesday are a team who have been struggling for consistency all season and are still waiting for Steve Bruce to come in and officially take over as manager. They have been in decent form of late, but this is a big step up for the players and Sheffield Wednesday have been a little weaker when playing away from home.
Last time out in the Championship they were swatted aside by in-form Hull City, but the changes made to the Chelsea team should make this a closer tie.
It is certainly something the layers are not quite factoring in and I think Sheffield Wednesday can be backed with a full two goal start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bristol City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Fred
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 Bet Victor
Derby County & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Doncaster Rovers & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Middlesbrough - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Swansea City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Millwall + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet
Sheffield Wednesday + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
The Premier League is back on Tuesday so I will have my Fantasy choices from the games as well as my breakdown of how I think the fixtures will work out, while I am also working out how to change the way I produce the Fantasy selections.
That may not be entirely in place until later in the month in February, but it is something I am considering to make those selections more meaningful to readers.
The final weekend in January is reserved for the FA Cup Fourth Round ties and there are some big ones to be played. This is the last Round that will have any Replays as the FA have changed up the format and will remove Replays from the Fifth Round onwards to make sure teams are not being asked to really congest the remaining months of the season with additional fixtures, especially those still involved in European competition.
No will dispute the tie of the Round comes from the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal host Manchester United as a second team from the top six of the Premier League will be exiting the competition. Others may follow, but at least one is guaranteed to join Liverpool in having a free weekend in the middle of February which has been reserved for FA Cup Fifth Round ties.
The breakdown of the Fourth Round ties can be read below.
Bristol City v Bolton Wanderers Pick: At this stage of the competition the FA Cup is perhaps not the priority for managers up and down the country and that kind of blasé attitude about the competition has filtered down to teams in the Championship too.
Two of those clubs meet on Friday night in a game that will go under the radar because two of the top Premier League clubs meet in the tie of the Round at the same time.
Both Bristol City and Bolton Wanderers are prioritising the Championship for different reasons- Bristol City are on the brink of cracking into the top six, while Bolton Wanderers are fighting against relegation.
The visitors in this tie have a huge game in the League to come on Tuesday when Bolton Wanderers host Reading and I have to think Phil Parkinson is already preparing for that one. It may mean not risking key players, while Bristol City have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect and have won 5 in a row so Lee Johnson's motivation in this tie may be somewhat greater than the manager of the opponents in this fixture.
Bristol City also have eight days before they play again compared to Bolton Wanderers who play in a few days time and the home team have already beaten The Trotters here this month.
It was a dominant performance from Bristol City regardless of the narrow 2-1 win and I think they are likely going to dictate much of the play in this one too. Neither team will want to add to the congested fixture list by being forced into a Replay, but I don't think Bristol City will need one as they can win this fixture with at least two goals featured on the night.
Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: As soon as the draw was made for the FA Cup Fourth Round the tie of the Round was the fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United who are the two most successful clubs in the history of this famous old trophy.
It could be a pivotal fixture for the two managers too as they look to put their clubs in a position to win some silverware, but it may also serve as something of a momentum builder in the race for the top four places in the Premier League.
There may not be points on the line, but Manchester United have won 7 straight under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and beating another top four rival away from home will be a big confidence boost. They did that at Tottenham Hotspur a couple of weeks ago and denting the confidence of Arsenal may just give Manchester United a leg up on those teams going into February.
Unai Emery may be thinking the same having seen his Arsenal team beat Chelsea last weekend and doing the same against Manchester United in the Cup may indicate his team are through a poor patch of form. It could also be a win that gives one of these teams the mental edge with the Premier League fixture between the two just six weeks away and I think there is enough on the line to think two strong teams will be picked.
The Arsenal line up is arguably easier to predict, but I would not be surprised if Manchester United make changes in the final third and allow Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez to both start. Those changes may have an impact in the type of speed and energy offered in the final third, but Marcus Rashford could need a rest and Solskjaer does want options in attacking areas with the fixtures coming thick and fast over the next month.
Neither defence offers a lot of encouragement and I do think this is going to develop into a fantastic, attacking Cup tie. Both teams will know how much more comfortable they are on the front foot and either team earning a clean sheet would be something of a surprise to me.
There were four goals shared out at Old Trafford when they met in December and the desire to avoid a Replay should mean both managers set their teams up to be very attack minded. Picking a winner is not easy because Manchester United look to have rounded into nice form, but Arsenal have to be respected as a team who have been much better at home than on their travels.
I would love to see United do this and continue the momentum into the next three League games ahead of the Champions League resumption against Paris Saint-Germain, but the best selection for the game looks to be backing at least three goals to be shared out on what is going to be a chilly London evening.
Accrington Stanley v Derby County Pick: The television companies may have picked this tie anticipating Southampton would be the opponent for League One Accrington Stanley, but it was Derby County who upset those plans by knocking out the Premier League club.
While the League may be the priority, Derby County have seen some strong teams named by Frank Lampard in the domestic Cup competitions and I would expect they are going to be good enough to win here.
Accrington Stanley did beat Ipswich Town from the Championship in the last Round, but Derby County are a much tougher test and the home team have not been in great form.
I expect they can cause some problems on a pitch that may not be the best and with the home support behind them, but I would expect the Derby County quality to come through in a win here. The home team may play a part though with the goals they have managed at the Wham Stadium so backing the higher League club to come through a game featuring two or more goals is the selection.
Brighton v West Brom Pick: The FA Cup can be a very difficult competition to work out especially in January when teams still feel Wembley is far enough away that they can rotate their squads to freshen things up.
I think both Brighton and West Brom may be thinking about League matters and making sure their squads are not being overly stretched ahead of a busy time of the season when you want to begin making a positive run to the finish line.
Home advantage should give Brighton an edge and they did reach the Quarter Final of the FA Cup under Chris Hughton last season. However that was the best run Brighton have had in the FA Cup since the 2011/12 season when they were beaten in the Fifth Round at Anfield.
Unlike their hosts, West Brom have had some real success in the FA Cup in recent times without quite making it to Wembley Stadium for the Semi Final. They will be looking for a fourth appearance in the Fifth Round in the last five seasons, but Darren Moore knows a strong Cup run won't keep him in his job if The Baggies miss out on promotion to the Premier League.
It may be a tight game, but I think Brighton may edge out their visitors with perhaps more motivation in the home team than I am giving them credit for. The game at Fulham on Tuesday is a huge one for Brighton and that is perhaps skewing my feelings somewhat, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this one knowing a draw will return half of the stake.
Doncaster Rovers v Oldham Athletic Pick: You have to imagine both Grant McCann and Pete Wild will be trying to take away the pressure from their Doncaster Rovers and Oldham Athletic players respectively by making sure they focus on this FA Cup Fourth Round tie rather than what could lie ahead.
With teams down to the final sixteen in the next Round the chances of landing a huge tie won't be lost on the Chairmen of either club and the financial rewards that could be in the offering.
Neither Doncaster Rovers or Oldham Athletic would have wanted to face the other at this stage of the FA Cup but they have to deal with the situation and this could be a very good Cup tie. Both teams have to want to take chances to win this tie and both have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals of late which suggests this will follow suit.
Games between these clubs at The Keepmoat Stadium have tended to be low-scoring in recent seasons with the last couple ending 1-1. However Doncaster Rovers have scored at least two goals in 7 straight home games in all competitions and Oldham Athletic have conceded that number in 3 of their last 5 away games.
On the other side Oldham Athletic have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 7 away games and Doncaster Rovers have conceded at least two goals in 2 of their last 3 here.
I have to say I do give the edge to Doncaster Rovers in the tie though and I fancy they will be able to progress at the first time of asking. Goals may be shared out in the game, but I will back Doncaster Rovers to win a fixture featuring two or more goals at odds against.
Manchester City v Burnley Pick: The pitch may not have been to his liking, but Pep Guardiola has to be happy that the majority of his players came through unscathed against Burton Albion in their 0-1 win on Wednesday. With one Cup Final secured, the manager will turn his attention to guiding Manchester City ahead in the FA Cup when they host Burnley on Saturday.
There will be more changes to the Manchester City team but I think the manager is definitely going to go with a more recognisable eleven than the one that started at the Pirelli Stadium. A couple of the youngsters may keep their places, but I don't think Guardiola will want to risk having to play a Replay and Manchester City have proven to be far too good for Burnley in the last eighteen months.
In that time Burnley have visited the Etihad Stadium three times and in each visit they have conceded one more goal from three to four to five.
That will be a concern for Sean Dyche considering Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home games played in January, but ultimately the Cup is not an important competition for Burnley. Instead his focus will be on the second trip to Manchester coming up on Tuesday as Burnley fight and scratch for their Premier League lives and I imagine the team selection will reflect that.
If Manchester City pick a team anything like what I am expecting I can see them beating Burnley comfortably for the fourth time in a row at home. All three previous wins have come by margins of three or more goals and I am going to back Manchester City to reach that level again as they move through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup before turning their attention back to the Premier League with a game at Newcastle United to come on Tuesday.
Burnley will also look to turn back to the Premier League where they host Southampton in a huge game next Saturday. First they have to face the other club from Manchester, United, on Tuesday but Sean Dyche should have his key players well rested for that fixture.
Middlesbrough v Newport County Pick: This might not be the most important match in the season for Middlesbrough, but I don't think they can really afford to go into a run of facing West Brom, Leeds United and Sheffield United off an upset loss to a League Two side.
Any upset won't matter to Tony Pulis if Middlesbrough were to win those games, but it will be much tougher to explain away a poor run if some momentum is lost this weekend with a 5 game unbeaten run to protect.
In all honesty Middlesbrough should be too good for Newport County even if the home team were to make some changes to the line up to rest some key players. They have a week before they are playing again so Pulis can still pick a strong team and getting through to the FA Cup Fifth Round will still be something to aim for even if the League is the priority.
Middlesbrough have to be wary of a Newport County team that may be playing in League Two but who have beaten both Leeds United and Leicester City in the FA Cup over the last thirteen months. They even held Tottenham Hotspur, but all of those games were at home and Newport County have simply not been as productive away from Rodney Parade.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 on their travels including the last 4 in a row and those have come at a lower level than the one they are dealing with on Saturday.
Middlesbrough's lack of goals is a concern, but they did manage to knock five past Peterborough United from League One in the last Round and I think they will be a little too good for Newport County in this one too. With that in mind I will back Middlesbrough on the Asian Handicap to progress through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup which is played after those three big League games I mentioned will be played.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: Determining the motivation of managers is a big key to working out how some of these FA Cup Fourth Round ties are going to go and I have to believe Javi Gracia is much more interested in a deep Cup run than Rafa Benitez is.
The layers seem to have that in their minds too with Watford going to the North East as a considerable favourite to win this match. They are odds against, but Watford being favoured to win at Newcastle United is always a big deal and much of that has to be down to the teams selected by Newcastle United in the two FA Cup Third Round ties against Blackburn Rovers.
The Spaniard has made it clear that the Premier League is the priority and the squad is not able to cope with the Cup and League together. With two League games to be played in the next eight days, Benitez may be resting key players and giving some of the young players another chance to impress.
Beating Blackburn Rovers is one thing, but beating a motivated Watford is another altogether and I would imagine Gracia will be keen on overseeing a strong Cup run. Performances in the Premier League suggest Watford have more than enough to survive in the top flight so there is no reason to not have a go at the FA Cup.
Things are complicated by the midweek set of Premier League games to come, but Watford are not due out until Wednesday and points may not be as important as getting through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup. At least that may be the case for the next few days and I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap to earn their place in the Fifth Round.
I will back Watford on the 0 ball Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw because it is difficult to believe in them as the away favourite. However Watford have been scoring enough goals on their travels to make me believe they won't lose and I will look for them to have enough experience to edge out a much changed Newcastle United team.
Shrewsbury Town v Wolves Pick: Playing away from home in the FA Cup against a lower League club may offer some trepidation for Premier League players knowing how they will be received if they are upset in those fixtures.
Things have changed from years gone by though and these days you are less likely to be asked to play on tremendously poor pitches as you would have done before. This should make things more comfortable for a passing side like Wolves, although the temperatures in the United Kingdom have dipped and it could have hardened the Montgomery Waters Meadow playing surface.
It is still a huge ask for Sam Ricketts to mastermind an upset over the club he captained to the League One title in the 2013/14 season. The new manager has yet to have the kind of impact he would have liked with his Shrewsbury Town team and 1 win from the last 8 games in all competitions does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Shrewsbury Town also saw a long unbeaten run at home come to an end in their 0-3 defeat to Charlton Athletic last time out and I do think it will be very hard to contain their visitors.
Nuno Espirito Santo picked a strong team in the win over Liverpool in the Third Round and I do think the FA Cup is a realistic target for a Wolves team who have shown they can compete with the best in the Premier League. They are back in Premier League action during the week, but Wolves won't want to add to a February fixture list by taking chances with this fixture and having to play a Replay.
I imagine the team selection will reflect that and Wolves have shown they are very productive on their travels throughout this season. This is a team who does have goals in the side and I think they are going to be able to hit Shrewsbury Town on the break to complete the victory in this Fourth Round tie.
Wolves should be too good for a struggling League One team on what should be a decent playing surface and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Swansea City v Gillingham Pick: Both teams have important League games to come on Tuesday, but the chance to progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup has to excite both sets of players ahead of this weekend.
You can really earn a big tie once you reach the Fifth Round of the FA Cup, but I think it is a big ask of Gillingham to win at the ground of a higher League club who look to be rounding into some very good form.
Gillingham have been playing some decent stuff of their own and the results away from home have to be respected, but the standard of opponent does go up significantly in this one.
Last season Swansea City were playing in the Premier League and their comfortable win over Aston Villa earned their spot in the FA Cup Fourth Round. Getting into the Play Offs in the Championship is the target for Graham Potter and Swansea City and they do have that important game with Birmingham City to come on Tuesday, but they can keep the momentum going having won 3 of their last 4 games.
Beating Gillingham won't be straight-forward if there are too many changes made by Swansea City to their starting eleven, but the visitors have been struggling and can concede too many goals in a lower Division. That should show up here and I will back Swansea City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Everton Pick: This is a very interesting FA Cup Fourth Round tie and I have to admit I was taken aback at seeing Everton at odds on to win at the New Den considering the form they have been in. 4 losses from their last 5 away games is not ideal and while those have come in the Premier League I do have to factor in a loss of confidence into this fixture.
They are facing a Millwall team who have been much more inconsistent this season than twelve months ago, but who have remained tough to beat in front of their own fans. It happened the last time Millwall played here, but 2 losses in 10 games at home in all competitions shows this is going to be anything but a straight-forward day that odds on quotes would have you believe.
Everton certainly have the talent to win here and when they put their qualities together they can be very hard to play. Marco Silva must know he needs a strong finish to the season if he wants to remain in charge of the club and so there is real pressure on him to extract a performance from his players on a difficult ground.
Scoring enough goals has been something of a problem for Everton and this is a Millwall side who beat Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester City a couple of years ago on a fabulous Cup run through to the Quarter Final. Fulham did win here in the League Cup earlier this season, but that was a Millwall team that started the season quite poorly and I do think the confidence will be much higher for an upset in this one.
I am not quite sure they have enough to do that, but Millwall can certainly make a game of this and they have the ability to at least earn a Replay in ten days time. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go in a fixture where Everton look very, very short.
AFC Wimbledon v West Ham United Pick: The last FA Cup Fourth Round tie to be played on Saturday comes from the Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium as AFC Wimbledon look to do a little better when they host Premier League West Ham United for the second time this season.
These teams met in the League Cup and AFC Wimbledon actually took the lead, but a sending off inside the first 20 minutes left them in a very difficult position and eventually West Ham United took over.
This is a big FA Cup tie for West Ham United with fans believing they have every chance of a deep run in the competition. The Premier League looks to be in good nick for The Hammers and so Manuel Pellegrini will be expected to pick a side that is good enough to progress from this Fourth Round tie.
I do think Pellegrini will make changes though and West Ham United are a very hard team to get a read on with inconsistent results a feature of the team over the last month. However there is enough class in the final third to give them the edge over an AFC Wimbledon team propping up the rest of League One and in a real fight to avoid their first club relegation.
When they met in the League Cup West Ham United were in a poor run of form and confidence was not great, but they should be much better now. Having won here already I would expect The Hammers to be able to frank that win with another on Saturday and I think they won't be caught cold as they were in the League Cup.
A stronger West Ham United team should be picked and AFC Wimbledon have suffered back to back heavy home losses in League One. Heads could drop if they were to fall behind in this one and I will back West Ham United to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: For 45 minutes Tottenham Hotspur looked lost on Thursday as they found themselves 2-0 down at Stamford Bridge, but they were much better in the second half and perhaps unfortunate to lose.
The squad is completely stretched at the moment and while Mauricio Pochettino would want to avoid a second Cup exit in a matter of days, he has to find a way to freshen things up.
Three key forwards are missing and Ben Davies is the latest to join a growing injury list. With just a few days before having to return to Premier League action with two games to be played in that competition over the next eight days, Pochettino has some big decisions to make.
The same can be said for Crystal Palace and Roy Hodgson who will pay a lot of respect to the FA Cup, but will also recognise that League games against Southampton and Fulham are vital to keeping his club in the Premier League for another season.
In the last Round Hodgson could afford to make changes against a League Two opponent, but he may be under more pressure to produce a stronger team with the feeling that Tottenham Hotspur are there for the taking.
It makes this a very difficult game to call, but what has been noticeable in Crystal Palace games hosting Tottenham Hotspur is the lack of goals. In a lot of Crystal Palace games at Selhurst Park that has been the case this season, while Tottenham Hotspur are not the same without three of their key attacking players.
A single goal could be enough to decide this tie one way or the other and I am going to back less than three goals to be produced in this Fourth Round tie.
Chelsea v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The 6pm kick off time is a very strange one for a Sunday in England and it really doesn't account for the Sheffield Wednesday fans travelling to West London in huge numbers.
While I try and get over my utter 'surprise' that match going fans are ignored, the fixture on the pitch looks like one that Chelsea should be able to win without too many issues.
Clouding things is the fact that a strong starting eleven was needed to see off Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg on Thursday and the rotations that are going to be made should mean Chelsea are more vulnerable than they would usually be.
However Sheffield Wednesday are a team who have been struggling for consistency all season and are still waiting for Steve Bruce to come in and officially take over as manager. They have been in decent form of late, but this is a big step up for the players and Sheffield Wednesday have been a little weaker when playing away from home.
Last time out in the Championship they were swatted aside by in-form Hull City, but the changes made to the Chelsea team should make this a closer tie.
It is certainly something the layers are not quite factoring in and I think Sheffield Wednesday can be backed with a full two goal start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bristol City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Fred
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 Bet Victor
Derby County & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Doncaster Rovers & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Middlesbrough - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Swansea City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Millwall + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet
Sheffield Wednesday + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
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