NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 9-10)

All credit has to be given to the NFL who have not only completed the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but have managed to do that without cancelling a single game.

It wasn't all plain-sailing with some Covid-19 outbreaks meaning the schedule had to be shifted around, while the Denver Broncos had to play one game with a Wide Receiver at Quarter Back after the entire QB unit was either testing positive or being in close contact with someone who had.

While I praise the NFL and the protocols they have placed, I do think this is not the time to allow complacency to set in- the NFL PlayOffs could be compromised if we have another Denver situation, while schedule changes are much more difficult with the post-season played over the next three weeks; ultimately a team will suffer if they are forced to win games midweek and then play another top NFL team days later in the Divisional Round or Championship Game.

That is something that is difficult to factor in, but Aaron Rodgers made the best comment to his Green Bay team-mates leaving for a mini-break and that was simply be responsible, look after yourselves and 'don't get Covid'.

We are now down to the final fourteen teams in the 2020 NFL season and the new PlayOff format means only the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will be enjoying a Bye over Super Wild Card Weekend. I think that is a real edge for those teams as they bid to reach the Super Bowl with home field advantage through the PlayOffs, although an upset is never that far away at this time of the season.

With the odds being released for Wild Card Weekend there will need to be some major upsets to prevent the top teams from making it through to the Divisional Round next weekend. My personal Ranking of the teams left in the PlayOffs has the likes of the Packers, Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills as those most likely to win the Super Bowl, although they are not that much further clear of the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe it will be an easy path for any of the teams looking to play into next month.

It should be a really fun weekend with the extra couple of games expanding the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and there are some good games coming up. You can read my Picks below from the Saturday and Sunday offerings.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL PlayOffs are essentially a 'new season' and that is what all fourteen teams playing in the post-season will be feeling as the new Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs begin on Saturday. This looks like one of the better games on deck as the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts and snap their long wait for a PlayOff win which stretches back twenty-six years.

There is going to be a pressure on the Bills with that long run without a PlayOff win hanging over their heads, but Josh Allen and the rest of the team have really shown another improvement on their 2019 form. The Quarter Back in particular has impressed, but Allen will know that he is going to be judged on how he plays in the post-season and whether he can show growth from last year when the Bills were beaten by the Houston Texans.

The Bills blew a big lead in that loss to the Texans and they were eventually undone in Overtime, but it was also a game played on the road. Finishing as the Number 2 Seed means the Bills are in control of playing the next two PlayOff Games at home as long as they can win on Wild Card Weekend.

Buffalo have lost their last six PlayOff Games, but the last four have been on the road and this Bills team is giving off a different vibe having won six games in a row going into the PlayOffs. They have shown a huge Offensive output which has helped the Defensive unit close out games, but they won't be taking anything for granted when the Indianapolis Colts come to town having won four of their last five games.

There has to be a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the Colts who needed the Bills beating the Miami Dolphins and then beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 to enter the PlayOffs. There is experience here through Head Coach Frank Reich and Quarter Back Philip Rivers, but the feeling is that the Colts need a bit of luck to break their way if they are going to work their way through the post-season towards the Super Bowl.

Some suggestions have been made that the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Rivers at Quarter Back at the end of this season regardless of how things go in the PlayOffs and some believe they could be in for Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Philip Rivers himself has admitted that he is not sure whether he will play another NFL season after this one comes to an end and the competitor in him will want to go out on a high.

He will be looking to lean on the Indianapolis Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor at Running Back which has been the key for the Colts in getting into the post-season. Taylor had a huge game in Week 17 and the Colts Offensive Line have been able to open up some considerable holes in recent games, while they will be confident in doing that against the Buffalo Defensive Line which has given up almost 5 yards per carry across their last three games.

While the game is close I certainly think the Colts will have success running the ball and that will be key for the underdog who will want to keep the powerful Buffalo Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible in cold conditions. It is very important for Indianapolis to also keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus giving Philip Rivers the best chance to have a big outing at Quarter Back as he looks to help lead the upset.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line has not been as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking and so again it is important for the Colts to stay with the Bills as long as possible. Philip Rivers will want to avoid having to throw too many times into the Buffalo Secondary, which has improved down the stretch compared with their overall season form.

Throwing the ball could be a potential problem for the Colts, but they will also have serious concerns about defending the pass against Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills have seen Josh Allen come on leaps and bounds in 2020 despite a mini-slump during the course of the season, and they have also surrounded the Quarter Back with some huge talents that have helped in the development of the young player.

Josh Allen has found a chemistry with Stefon Diggs, but the likes of John Brown, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis have all shown they can step up for the Bills in the passing game too. Injuries have slowed the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch and the Secondary have given up over 300 yards per game through the air in their last three games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Houston.

I have no doubt that Josh Allen is able to maintain that kind of number against this Secondary as he has helped the Bills average over 350 yards per game through the air down the stretch. Buffalo have not been afraid to come out and throw the ball all over the field to put the pressure on their opponents and I think it will be difficult for the Colts to slow them down, especially with the Buffalo Offensive Line likely able to give Allen some time.

The Colts have been able to bring the pass rush pressure, but Buffalo will feel their Offensive Line can keep the pocket clean enough. Add in Josh Allen's ability to scramble around and move the ball with his legs and I do think Buffalo will be confident the passing lanes will open up for them on the Offensive side of the ball.

In recent games Buffalo also found a groove when it came to running the ball, but the Colts Defensive Line have been stout up front. The Quarter Back's ability to reach First Down markers with his legs may make it a touch more difficult for Indianapolis on the ground, while any Secondary struggles will also open the running lanes as players are sent into coverage to slow the Bills down through the air.

I've really liked the Indianapolis Colts this season and how they have been built, but I do think there have been some signs that they have been worn down over a long season. Philip Rivers was once a top Quarter Back, but I am not sure he will be able to compete in a shoot out with the younger and fresher Josh Allen who looks to have found a really good rhythm at Quarter Back.

It might be tense at times, which is down to the long absence of winning a PlayOff Game, but I think Buffalo will find the big plays in the passing game which will force Indianapolis to take to the air to keep up. Ultimately I am not sure Rivers can do that at this stage of his career and I like the Buffalo Bills to continue their strong covering ability, the mark of a very good team.

Buffalo are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite and they have covered the spread in their last eight games down the stretch. I do have to admit I really admire Frank Reich and the Head Coach does have the Colts playing competitively, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog.

The Colts are not used to being the underdog and so they may use that as motivation to 'show their critics' but I think there is too much Buffalo Offensive firepower which leads to a win by a Touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In Week 17 the Los Angeles Rams were able to end the season for one of their NFC West rivals and they will be looking to do the same on Super Wild Card Weekend when travelling to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams shared out a win apiece in the regular season, but the Seahawks have got home field advantage having ended the year with the Number 3 Seed and with positive injury news meaning they could be going into the post-season at full strength.

There was also better news for the Los Angeles Rams this week as it looks like Jared Goff is on course to return at Quarter Back for the road team. The Rams have reached the Super Bowl with Goff at Quarter Back before and his return means John Wolford will return to a backup role for Los Angeles despite leading the win over the Cardinals in Week 17.

John Wolford was massively helped by the Defensive unit, while Jared Goff will likely need the same level of support as the Rams have struggled Offensively for some weeks. The Quarter Back will be making his return against the Seattle Seahawks who he was facing when he fractured his thumb, but I do think the Los Angeles Rams will be comfortable with their chances in the PlayOffs.

The Rams had lost two in a row before finishing the regular season with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a feeling that they can have considerably more Offensive success against this Seattle Defense than they did when they met last month. On that occasion Los Angeles were only able to muster up 9 points, but both teams struggled to move the ball with consistency so there is going to be some pressure on Jared Goff if he does get rewarded with the start.

Most will be interested to see who Sean McVay picks as his starting Quarter Back, but there are a couple of key performers who need to be cleared on this side of the ball. Andrew Whitworth is hoping to be able to play on the Los Angeles Offensive Line and Jamal Adams is adamant he will play for the Seattle Seahawks at Safety and both players are very important for their respective teams.

An improvement in the Seattle Defensive Line's performances against the run have been critical for the Seahawks producing four wins in a row to end the season and clinch the NFC West Division. It has come at an important time as the Seahawks Offense has not really found the groove they had earlier this season and it will be up to Seattle to try and win at the line of scrimmage to take control of this game.

You know Sean McVay will look for ways to get the Rams moving even if the run is stopped and that may be by employing short passes, screens or Wide Receiver screens to try and stay in front of the sticks and give Jared Goff the best chance for success. John Wolford showed off his ability to run the ball last week in the win over the Cardinals and if he starts at Quarter Back it may give the Rams Offense another crease, but I do think Los Angeles will struggle for consistency running the ball as they did when the teams met in this Stadium last month.

The more important question for the Rams has to be whether they can get more from the passing game which was not able to expose the holes that have opened up in the Seattle Secondary all season. There have been some obvious signs of improvement from the Seahawks who tend to be a 'bend, don't break' Defensive unit, but even then you would expect any Quarter Back to have more success than the Rams enjoyed against Seattle in their most recent meeting.

It will be interesting to see if Whitworth is up to speed on the Offensive Line because he will be facing a Seattle pass rush which has come alive in recent weeks. They will be looking to force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball much more quickly than they would like and it will also aid the Secondary in being able to make a few stops in this one.

Stopping the run will be something the Seahawks will feel they can do, but I really think the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is the best of the Lines along the trenches. In recent games Seattle have been able to get Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde going, while Russell Wilson is capable as a runner too, but the Seahawks did not have much success on the ground against the Rams in their last meeting and there is little to suggest they will have a lot more in this one.

However, one positive is that the Seahawks Offensive Line looks like it could be as healthy as it has been in several weeks and that may be good news for Russell Wilson. After opening up with massive MVP credentials, Wilson has come off the boil as his protection has weakened and the game plan has perhaps been adjusted to establish the ground game.

Russell Wilson will need all the protection he can get against this Rams Defensive Line led by Aaron Donald and it is the extended time that may see him find a way to exploit the Rams Secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing at an incredibly high level and will feel he can lock down DK Metcalf again barring the Seahawks moving the big Receiver to different spots in the field where Ramsey may not follow, but Tyler Lockett is a big threat for Seattle.

The Quarter Back situation definitely feels like it is giving the Seahawks and edge and you can't discount a team that has won every home PlayOff Game under Pete Carroll. If Jared Goff was at 100% I do think the Rams could cause problems, but Seattle look to be playing with confidence and momentum and that can roll over into this game.

The home team has won the last five games between these Divisional rivals and Seattle won by 11 points when hosting the Rams last month.

Los Angeles are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Seattle and I do think the Seahawks will be able to get one or two big plays from Russell Wilson which helps them win this game and cover the number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team Pick: Most fans have been pretty down on the NFC East this season and there were plenty out there making it clear that winning the Number 5 Seed in the NFC was effectively going to mean an easy win on Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked that up and they are considered big favourites to beat the Washington Football Team who might have been thankful to Doug Pederson in securing the NFC East Division title in Week 17.

Washington had to win at Philadelphia to win the Division, but the game was very, very competitive going into the Fourth Quarter before Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson decided he would put in what is effectively a third string Quarter Back. Unsurprisingly things went pear shaped for the Eagles from there and the decision drew the ire of the New York Giants who missed out on a PlayOff spot.

Ron Rivera won't care how his team got into the PlayOffs and the Head Coach has shown he can motivate teams to play above their level in one off games before. His 7 win Carolina Panthers team won the NFC South in the 2014 NFL season and that team were able to upset the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals at home in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

There are similarities here as his 7 win Washington team face an 11 win Tampa Bay team on Saturday evening, but Ron Rivera will be reminding his players that every team begins at 0-0 in the PlayOffs. A bigger concern for the Head Coach seems to be getting Quarter Back Alex Smith as healthy as possible and Rivera did admit that he would have loved to have been given one of the Sunday slots this Wild Card Weekend to give his veteran player as much time to recover as possible.

Over the course of the season you would think the Quarter Back would be the best chance for Washington to earn the upset, but down the stretch the Buccaneers Defensive Line did begin to struggle when it comes to stopping the run. The overall numbers remained strong, but the Buccaneers have given up 4.4 yards per carry across their last three games and it is only the points being scored by the Tampa Bay Offense which may have forced opponents to have to move away from the run.

The Football Team will be hoping Antonio Gibson is going to be healthier than he looked last week as he remains the premier Running Back on the roster and it will be important for Washington to run the ball. Controlling the clock is important and it may also benefit Alex Smith who should have success throwing against the Tampa Bay Defense.

It is also important to run the ball to help the Washington Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Alex Smith as it could just slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush for long enough to allow him to make some plays. Last week the Eagles were able to get a lot of pressure on Smith throughout the game which has meant the Quarter Back has been nursing some injuries over the week, but the Football Team may feel they can at least have a touch more consistency behind their Offensive unit.

Scoring enough points to be competitive won't be easy for Washington if Tampa Bay continue to play as they have been with Tom Brady leading the way. The suggestion is that Mike Evans will be ready to go having come out of the Week 17 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and that means Brady will have some talented Receivers to make plays for him.

On the face of things you would think the Buccaneers are able to have considerable success throwing the ball, but the Washington pass Defense has been the strength of the team and the reason they have made the PlayOffs. Much of that is down to the front four who have some extremely talented youngsters leading the way and it will be the pressure on Tom Brady which will be key to slowing down the Buccaneers.

In the past we have seen Tom Brady rattled by teams who can get an intense about of pass rush player with limited numbers rushing him and that is something that fits this Washington Defensive Line to a tee. Chase Young is the headline name, but there is talent across the line and I do think they will be able to at least give the Football Team a chance of the upset.

A lot will come down to that battle as any time being given to Brady will result in his classy Receivers finding spaces to exploit. It is also hard to really believe in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette can establish the run to the point where they slow down the Football Team pass rush and I do think this Defensive Line will be able to keep this game close.

While Tampa Bay have been strong against the spread in the last few weeks, Washington have to be respected having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the underdog.

The Buccaneers are the more likely winners as I am not entirely sure that Washington can score enough points to secure the upset, but Tom Brady is 0-4 against the spread in late primetime slots this season. This is the same slot the Buccaneers have on Saturday night and in the past it is those teams with fearsome Defensive Lines that have been able to give Brady some trouble and I will look for Washington to remain within the number set.

I will expect the Football Team to be highly motivated by the oddsmakers line for this game and that disrespect coupled with their Head Coach's experience of overcoming the odds in the Wild Card Round is important here. Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers actually beat Bruce Arians that season in the Wild Card Round too and I think Rivera may get the better of Arians when it comes to this spread too.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Pick: A five game winning run has helped turn the Baltimore Ravens season around after it looked like they may have missed out on a PlayOff spot at 6-5. There is a confidence that this team is peaking at the right time and they have a chance to earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss to the Tennessee Titans at home last year.

The Titans are back in the post-season, but this time they go in as the AFC South Division Winners and that means they will be hosting at least one PlayOff Game. Last year the Titans managed to reach the AFC Championship Game and led against eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City, while road wins at New England and Baltimore will mean this Titans team has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

What they don't have is a very good Defensive unit and I do think that has to be a major concern for Tennessee entering the PlayOffs this season. You can't expect to beat some of the best teams in the NFL with a team who literally can't stop anyone on the other side of the ball, but the Titans have managed to somehow win 11 games including three of their last four to secure the AFC South.

I do think there is a chance for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to move the ball with some consistency in this big PlayOff Game and I would be disappointed if the Quarter Back is not able to have a big outing. There is some pressure on Jackson which he will acknowledge himself and that is down to losing both PlayOff Games that he has started for the Baltimore Ravens including the upset defeat to Tennessee as a double digit favourite last season.

However this game looks like a good chance for Jackson to have success both with his legs and with his arm- the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams running through them throughout the season, while the Secondary has been exposed by injuries and very little pass rush pressure generated up front.

Lamar Jackson is able to run the ball himself, but he will be well supported by JK Dobbins who has taken over as the main Running Back for the Baltimore Ravens. Both should be able to keep the Ravens in front of the chains and earn some big gains on the ground and that should open the door for the Quarter Back to hit his Receivers Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown down the field for some big plays.

The Ravens should have a very good balance Offensively which makes them very dangerous, but this should be anything but a one-sided game. While Baltimore will expect to dominate behind their Offensive Line, the Titans will also believe they have an Offensive Line which is going to be able to rip open some huge holes for what many may consider to be the best Running Back in the NFL.

Everyone knows that the Titans want to establish Derrick Henry early and often, but that has not made it any easier to stop a Back who has put up over 2000 yards on the ground this season. I do wonder if that will catch up with him as we enter the PlayOffs, but Henry smashed the Houston Texans in Week 17 and looks to be getting stronger as Defensive Lines begin to get banged up down the stretch.

Derrick Henry is the key and he will be keen to get after the Baltimore Defensive Line which has allowed teams to produce 5 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Those have been against weak teams, but the Titans are anything but a weak Offense and I do think Henry will open things up for Ryan Tannehill.

The Quarter Back is capable of making plays with his legs when teams focus in on Derrick Henry, but the big question for Ryan Tannehill is whether he can make enough plays with his arm to keep the Ravens from crowding the line of scrimmage. Ryan Tannehill has really played well for the Titans since taking over as the starting Quarter Back, and I am not going to put a lot of stock into the recent Baltimore performances when it comes to defending the pass.

Baltimore have simply not played very good Offenses as they have put the wins together and I do think the likes of AJ Brown and Corey Davis can win battles on the outside to give Ryan Tannehill options in the passing game. The Ravens may have better balance Offensively, but the Titans are likely going to feel pretty good about the way they can move the ball and they have to be motivating themselves with feelings that people still don't believe in them.

Over the last twelve months they have upset the Ravens twice on the road, yet here the Titans are set as the home underdog and a relatively big one too. The line doesn't make much sense to me if I am being honest, and I was expecting this to perhaps be a pick 'em with the feeling that Baltimore are going to be a team that is publicly backed.

In reality I do think the Titans have matched up well with the Ravens and they can perhaps win this game outright, but I will look to take the points on offer.

You may have to take a shorter price to go through the key number 3, but I think that would be very important with this game likely to end with a Field Goal win either way.

There are some strong trends favouring the Baltimore Ravens, but I do think Mike Vrabel will get the very best out of the Titans with the 'no one believes in us' line likely to have been used over and over this past week. The Titans look to be underrated here and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Teams that won at least 10 games missed out on the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket, but the 8-8 Chicago Bears are one of two teams without a winning record that are playing on the NFC side. They held their own destiny in their hands in Week 17, but the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers meant the Bears were thankful to the Los Angeles Rams who beat the Arizona Cardinals.

That might mean the Bears can enter the post-season with a 'nothing to lose' attitude as all teams begin at 0-0, but they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to progress any further.

And while the majority of players may feel it is a bonus to be playing in the PlayOffs after a poor stretch in the middle of the regular season, the likes of Head Coach Matt Nagy and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky have to show they are capable of taking the Bears forward in the months ahead. I do think the PlayOff spot means the Head Coach will remain in charge, but Trubisky's position at Quarter Back remains unsure and an early loss in the PlayOffs coupled with the blow out defeat in Week 17 to the Packers will have many believing the Bears should look for a new signal caller.

This does feel a very difficult match up for Trubisky with the New Orleans Saints Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level and I think it may be one that underlines the belief that the Bears need to look elsewhere when it comes to the Quarter Back position. During a strong end to the season Mitchell Trubisky has been able to lean on the Chicago Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes for David Montgomery, but the Saints Defensive Line have been capable up front and that will mean the pressure is all on Trubisky.

He struggled against the Green Bay Secondary which is a strong one, but Mitchell Trubisky can't hope to have a lot more success against this Saints Secondary which is talented. They will be looking for the pass rush pressure to get around Trubisky and force him into some poor decisions, but Chicago have to hope their Receivers can stand up for their beleaguered Quarter Back and at least give him a chance to make some plays.

While the game is close the Bears will be able to run the ball and try and control the clock, but things change dramatically if New Orleans are able to move a couple of scores ahead. The last couple of weeks has seen Drew Brees improving as he continues his recovery from a rib injury, but he will also be boosted by some key returns this week.

Alvin Kamara has been taken off the Covid-19 list and he should be available with the entire Running Back corps who missed out in Week 17, while the passing game will benefit from the return of Michael Thomas who has had an injury hit season. In Thomas' absence, New Orleans have found a couple of other Receivers to make plays for Drew Brees and I think the addition of their top Wide Receiver will make the Saints very dangerous.

Holes up front on the Chicago Defensive Line have allowed teams to establish the run against them and I do think Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be able to have strong performances running the ball. The Saints Offensive Line have been very strong both when it comes to run blocking and pass protection so the feeling is that the Saints will be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than the Chicago Bears.

As strong as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit has been, there is an opportunity to attack the Secondary and Drew Brees still looks to have enough to be successful in this game.

I do have to be concerned with the way the Saints have seen their recent seasons ended in the PlayOffs with upsets and some miracle plays going against them. That make the number look very big on the spread on Super Wild Card Weekend, but the Saints looks considerably stronger with the likes of Kamara and Thomas back, while the Chicago Bears have been fortunate to reach the PlayOffs.

The Saints are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the favourite and double digit favourites in the PlayOffs are 7-1 against the spread going back to 2011.

We have seen the Chicago Bears struggle to be competitive as a big underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread when given 6 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are also 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games when coming off a double digit loss at home and I think the Saints will have too much Offensive firepower here as they move into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: A number of starters were rested for the Week 17 game at the Cleveland Browns, but the Pittsburgh Steelers almost came close to the upset which may have knocked the Browns out of the PlayOffs. There was every chance that the Steelers were going to have to host Cleveland again in the Super Wild Card Round so the decision to rest key starters looks like being a good one by Mike Tomlin who knows anything less than a place in the Divisional Round will make this a disappointing season.

The Steelers have lost some momentum with four losses in their last five games, but they did finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and will believe having some of their better players resting last week will really benefit them.

That also means Pittsburgh would have kept some of their Offensive plays under wraps for this Wild Card Game, but the same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns who had to dig deep to beat the Steelers last week. It has snapped a long wait to return to the PlayOffs for the Browns, but they are considerable underdogs this week.

It has been a difficult week for the Cleveland Browns who will be without their Head Coach and a number of other players through positive Covid-19 tests. Olivier Vernon suffered an injury which means his season is over and the Browns are going to be challenged by this Steelers team who have had a number of their own players return with the additional time to recover.

Joe Haden will be missing in the Secondary, but the Browns will be looking to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than first time PlayOff Quarter Back Baker Mayfield. Both Chubb and Hunt have played well behind a powerful Cleveland Offensive Line and they should have some success establishing the run against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line which has given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season.

Teams have had to focus on establishing the run to loosen up the Pittsburgh pass Defense, but that has been difficult all season. There is a considerable pass rush the Steelers are able to generate and even the injury to Bud Dupree has not slowed down the pressure up front, and it could be hard for Cleveland to keep Baker Mayfield upright if he needs to move the chains from third and long spots.

As long as the game is close the Browns will feel good about their chances of moving the ball, but they won't be looking for Baker Mayfield to have to put the game on his shoulders. The Quarter Back has been inconsistent behind the Offensive Line and Mayfield has shown some inaccuracy which could be a real problem against this strong Pittsburgh Secondary.

Much seems to depend on how competitive the Browns can keep the game, but I do think the rest will help Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offensive unit to get back on track. Earlier this season we saw the veteran Quarter Back playing at a very good level and I do think he will have benefited from having two weeks between games having not had a Bye Week during the course of the regular season.

There are some talented Receivers that the Steelers can look to and the return of Eric Ebron is another huge boost for the entire Offense. Injuries and positive tests look to have hurt the Cleveland Secondary and I do think Roethlisberger is going to have a strong outing which can help take the game away from the Browns.

Even Mason Rudolph was able to have some success against Cleveland last week and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line looks strong and capable of giving Big Ben as much time as he needs. With the Receivers looking like they have rediscovered a way of holding onto the ball rather than having the drops that were blighting them a few weeks ago, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball through the air with consistency and strong success.

For much of the season the Steelers have leant on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back and that is because Pittsburgh have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked. The Steelers Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for James Connor or Benny Snell, and I think they are unlikely to get much joy from the Cleveland Defensive Line.

With that in mind I think we will see Pittsburgh looking to throw the ball around and I do think the conditions will allow Roethlisberger to do that.

I like the Steelers to win and cover this final Wild Card Game and that is largely because I feel they are going to have too much Offensive power for the Browns to stay with them. Baker Mayfield is a first time PlayOff Quarter Back and those players have tended to struggle in their debut start in the post-season, while the Browns have a poor 1-4-1 record against the spread in their last six games at Heinz Field.

The Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine at home, while the Browns have an awful record on the road and as an underdog. Cleveland have some important players missing and I think Pittsburgh look healthier at this stage of the season which will give them the edge and the ability to put up enough points to cover the mark.

Cleveland struggled when playing against their AFC North rivals in the regular season and their poor record in Pittsburgh is likely to be extended here.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL PlayOffs Wild Card Weekend Picks 2020 (January 4-5)

A lot of people speak about how quickly time seems to move between the NFL kicking off and getting into the PlayOffs and I have to very much agree with those thoughts.

Seventeen weeks of Football are now in the books and we are down to the final twelve teams who are going to be entering a 'new season' as they push for a spot in the Super Bowl and winning the NFL Championship.

There are some really good teams involved in the next few weeks and I am looking forward to all of the potential PlayOff games we are about to see. Like many others, I am stunned to see the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round after they failed to win a game in which they were over 17 point favourites in Week 17 of the season.

It has led to more questions about the Patriots and whether this dynasty is now over, but they are big favourites this weekend and any team with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's experience have to be respected.

Teams like Baltimore, Kansas City and New Orleans look way better equipped to win the Super Bowl, but we will get to see it all played out beginning with this Wild Card Round played over two days.

My personal lean is towards a Kansas City Chiefs versus New Orleans Saints Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens not too far behind. I do think the majority will be behind one of those four teams as far as Super Bowl predictions will go so I am not putting my neck on the line with my own selection of teams, although I will also admit it will be a Super Bowl I can really enjoy without the Patriots involved no matter how the final two shake up from the four teams selected.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Pick: I don't think too many people will be expecting either one of these teams to have a very deep PlayOff run, but a win in the Wild Card Round could be a big boost in the development for one of the Quarter Backs playing. Deshaun Watson is playing in his second PlayOff game on Saturday, while Josh Allen is at this stage for the first time in his career and the two players have shown they are men you can build your franchise around.

Winning a PlayOff game will give the successful Quarter Back a huge boost going into the 2020 season and I also think it will be a boost for the winning team even if they will be significant underdogs in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs regardless of whether that game is in Baltimore or Kansas City.

The Texans and Bills were both beaten in Week 17, but key players were rested in losses to Divisional rivals which meant very little to two teams locked into their Seeding in the AFC. However the Bills almost had a scare when Levi Wallace was banged up before the starters were pulled, although they look to have escaped a serious injury after Wallace returned to practice this week.

He looks to be trending towards playing in this Wild Card Game and that is very important to a strong Buffalo Defensive unit which sets the mood for the team. One of the big strengths of the Houston Offense has to be the depth in the Receiving options so missing a key Corner Back like Wallace would have hurt the Bills and especially after Will Fuller returned to practice for Houston and is almost certainly going to play in this one.

Deshaun Watson is a very good Quarter Back, but he has had one or two issues finding consistency when Fuller is not in the line up. The Wide Receiver stretches things out and makes it easier for Watson to make plays, but this is going to be a tough test for him against the Bills whose Secondary have played very well all season.

The problem for Watson is that even the improvements made to the Offensive Line have not been enough to prevent the protection breaking down when teams begin to rush him. The Texans will find it tough to give Watson a lot of time when he drops back to pass and things won't be helped by what is expected to be a challenging day trying to run the ball against the Buffalo Defensive Line.

If the Bills can clamp down on the run like they have, they should be able to stay in front of the chains and from there I would expect the pass rush to stall a couple of drives and perhaps even lead to a mistake or two from Watson at Quarter Back.

Avoiding mistakes is likely going to be a key part of the team meetings in the week leading up to this PlayOff game for both teams and it is important for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills that they give their Defensive unit the best chance to put the team in a position to win. Josh Allen has been much improved in his second year as Quarter Back of the Bills, but he will know he doesn't need to push himself to make huge plays to give his team the best chance of winning a PlayOff game for the first time in twenty-five years.

Buffalo are a team who want to pound the ball and they will believe they will be able to establish the run in this one. Recent games were not the best for the Bills in terms of the run, but the Houston Defensive Line has struggled up front and Devin Singletary could have a decent outing, while Josh Allen is more than a capable scrambler from the Quarter Back position which will double his threat in this one for the Texans.

There is the boost of having JJ Watt back, although that is going to impact the pass rush rather than the ability to clamp down on the run and I think Buffalo will have a chance to establish the ground game which really opens things up for them Offensively. If they are able to get things going, Josh Allen will be able to turn and attack this Secondary with real success and the Bills look a live underdog here.

JJ Watt's return will give the Texans a boost emotionally as well as helping what has been an inconsistent pass rush, but even that may not be enough. The Bills have proven to be very comfortable playing on the road and Josh Allen has come on leaps and bounds which could see him produce a rare success for a first time PlayOff Quarter Back.

There is a real trend where opposing a Quarter Back making his debut in the PlayOffs is concerned, but I do think Buffalo have the Defensive unit to restrict Houston and give Josh Allen all of the chances he needs to help win the game.

Buffalo are 8-1-2 against the spread in their last eleven games on the road and they are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog. The Texans are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I do think Deshaun Watson can be rattled by the kind of pressure he will face in this one as well as the lack of separation his Receivers might have.

It'll all be on Watson who won't have much support from Carlos Hyde running the ball and I think it may lead to Buffalo winning the turnover battle.

I am a little concerned by the record of first time Quarter Backs playing in the PlayOffs, while Buffalo have not played well against the best teams they have faced. However home favourites of less than 3 points are 1-9 against the spread on Wild Card Weekend since 2000 and I am going to take the points in this opening PlayOff game.


Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots Pick: When 'all' you have to do is beat the Miami Dolphins to secure the Number 2 Seed in the AFC it is not just a disappointment that the New England Patriots have failed to do that in Week 17, but potentially one that costs them a realistic chance of making the Super Bowl. The Patriots were 17.5 point favourites against the Miami Dolphins, but stunningly lost in Foxboro and that means playing in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs for the first time since 2009.

There are plenty of doubters now and that has to be fuelling the New England Patriots although the second half of the season has seen them not really go into the kind of PlayOff mode we have seen in the past. Instead the Patriots have not really found the consistency they would have liked and now have to face a Tennessee Titans team who were playing as well as most down the stretch in the regular season.

It was some benefit for the Titans that they were able to play a Houston team resting key starters in Week 17, but they still had to win on the road and did that very well. This is a far biggest test for the Titans though considering the experience that is in front of them, but Tennessee do have a very strong minded Head Coach in Mike Vrabel and I do think they will be as well prepared for this test as they can be.

The weather was looking like being a big concern for this game with Winter Storm Henry approaching Foxboro, although it sounds like it will be rainy and not snowy when this game kicks off.

So while the main impact of Weather Storm Henry won't be felt, one Henry will be heading to the Stadium and looking to make as much rumbling as possible. Derrick Henry is a huge part of the Tennessee Offense and he is likely to have even more of the ball if the rain makes it difficult to throw down the field.

We have all known how impressive Bill Belichick has been in planning to erase the biggest threat his opponent has on the field, but taking away Henry completely won't be easy. The Titans Offensive Line have been opening some big holes for Henry, while the physical nature of the Running Back means he can wear down Defensive Lines and eventually break a big one down the field.

The Patriots have been pretty good on the Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but Ryan Tannehill has also played well enough when he drops back to throw which gives them the balance to at least keep New England guessing. It would be a surprise if New England don't try and force Tannehill to beat them through the air considering the conditions expected in Foxboro, but Henry will get his numbers.

And I do think Tannehill and the Titans will be encouraged by what Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins did in Week 17. With AJ Brown beginning to show he could be one of the top Receivers in the NFL in the years ahead, Tennessee should be able to move the chains in this PlayOff game and give themselves an opportunity to win.

Much will depend on how Ryan Tannehill handles the pressure of playing in his first ever PlayOff game, while he also has to exorcise some demons in Foxboro having never won here with the Miami Dolphins. Like with the first PlayOff game, the trend against first time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season is not a good one for Tannehill, but Tennessee have been confident since he came into the starting line up and that should mean they can score enough points to potentially earn the upset.

It would be an upset even if Tennessee will be a trendy pick for some, because the New England Patriots are still a team who have shown they can overcome adversity. The long-running Super Bowl successes just can't be ignored and Tom Brady will have spent all week hearing about how the Patriots time is done which will have lit a fire under a player that may be finishing up his personal time here.

No one will dispute Brady's place in the pantheon of NFL history, but the Offensive unit has struggled this season and it is hard to see how much they can turn that around. Like Tennessee, the Patriots are going to try and establish the run and they may have some success doing that through Sony Michel if they pick up from where they left off last week.

Running the ball against the Tennessee Defensive Line is far from easy, but New England's Offensive Line have shown better shape in recent games and so they may have more success than most. In the conditions it is likely going to be the first port of call for the game-planning, although the Titans Secondary has been struggling in recent weeks too and that can't have escaped the attention of the Patriots either.

Unfortunately outside of Julian Edelman, who is banged up, the Patriots don't have the reliable Receivers of years gone by which will make it hard for Tom Brady to have the kind of successes he has enjoyed. The Titans also bring a pass rush which can be disruptive and I do think they are going to have the insight of their Head Coach to make this a close game on Saturday evening.

Tennessee have covered in their last four road games against teams with a winning record, although the trends largely favour New England in this game. The Patriots are a team who bounce back from losses, have been very strong at home and who have a very good record in PlayOff games as the favourite.

However I think the right play is with the road team and the points in what I feel will be a close game in the conditions. I hate opposing New England because they are capable of turning it on and getting things done, but my feeling is that the Tennessee Titans are playing well enough to keep this one close.

If Derrick Henry can get rumbling, this feels like a game that might be settled by a Field Goal margin in Foxboro on Saturday.


Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Any build up to this game is going to feature images and video from the 'Miracle of Minneapolis' two years ago when somehow the New Orleans Saints snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Minnesota Vikings. That was a Case Keenum inspired Vikings team that moved past New Orleans who suffered another heartbreaking PlayOff defeat twelve months ago.

Revenge is going to be on the minds of the fans who travel to the SuperDome on Sunday for this Wild Card Game, but I think Sean Payton will be playing down the significance of that. In Week 17 one inch prevented the Saints from having a Bye into the Divisional Round so the only focus this week is not revenge, but simply winning a PlayOff game against a quality opponent.

New Orleans won't deny there is something for them to prove having lost in the PlayOffs in the manner they have in each of the past two seasons, but Kirk Cousins will heading into the game with the Minnesota Vikings knowing many are expecting the latest implosion from him in a big game environment.

That narrative was added to in Week 16 when Cousins was downright awful against the Green Bay Packers in a game that ended their hopes of winning the NFC North. It came at home on a Monday Night Football and Minnesota have to be concerned about how they have played against fellow PlayOff teams in the regular season.

Granted that doesn't matter once you get into the post-season, while Cousins will also have Dalvin Cook back and hopefully a healthier Adam Thielen to throw to. The absence of Cook has been difficult and one of the premier Running Backs in the NFL is hoping to have a big impact on this game when making his first PlayOff appearance at the end of a season in which he cracked 1000 yards on the ground.

The Saints Defensive Line has just clamped down on runners of late as they have filled some of the gaps left behind by injuries and so it won't be easy for Cook who is unlikely to be fully healthy. However Dalvin Cook has shown he can burst through some small holes to open things up for Kirk Cousins and the key for the Vikings will be to try and control the clock on the ground while also keeping the team in front of the chains.

For much of the season it has worked for the Vikings who haven't asked Kirk Cousins to do too much, but in a potential shoot out with the Saints more may be expected of the Quarter Back. He does have a couple of solid Receivers, although the injury to Adam Thielen has made the passing attack that much easier to defend, while the Saints Secondary has overcome some injuries and continue to play at a high level.

They are helped by the pass rush that can be generated and I do think that is going to be an important part of slowing down the Vikings when they do have the ball. The last thing Minnesota want to do is get down multiple scores and have to move away from the game plan and drop back to throw fifty times to stay with their hosts.

Judging by recent games played by the New Orleans Saints, it is not too far fetched to believe they will be able to score on most possessions. Drew Brees is playing as well as at any time in the last twelve months and the Minnesota Secondary is banged up which leaves them vulnerable to a team who have scored at least 34 points in four games in a row.

Things could become very problematic for the Vikings if they do give away a couple of big runs on the ground as that will just open things up for Brees who has been carving up opponents. Alvin Kamara has played well in the last couple of weeks, but he is also a major threat catching short screen passes and all in all it looks like a game in which New Orleans are going to be able to do what they want Offensively.

Despite the public favouring New Orleans, sharp money has come in on Minnesota to drop the spread, although it is still above the key number 7. I do think the Vikings could potentially sneak a backdoor cover which makes this a dangerous number to lay, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams and New Orleans have plenty of momentum behind them.

Minnesota are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games when set as the underdog, and while the Saints have not been the best home favourite to back, they are a team with plenty of good trends behind them.

Kirk Cousins lost his only other PlayOff start to the Green Bay Packers and I think the Saints will be too potent Offensively for this Quarter Back to keep the Vikings with them. It is a big number without a doubt, but the New Orleans Saints can find the points to earn the cover and get ready for a trip to the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.


Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Since Carson Wentz was Drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles he was named the starter and the team have gone on to two PlayOff runs which includes winning the Super Bowl. However injuries meant Nick Foles led those post-season runs and so, stunningly, this is the first ever PlayOff start for Carson Wentz.

Four wins in a row gave the Philadelphia Eagles the NFC East title and that means they get to host this Wild Card Game despite winning two games fewer than the Seattle Seahawks. The latter are only here because they failed to convert a pass which landed on the one inch line on Sunday Night Football last week which would have given the Seahawks at least a home game in the Wild Card Round.

Pete Carroll is not bothered about how things have shaken up for his team which has been decimated by injury. The Seahawks finished 7-1 on the road in the regular season so having to win three road games to make the Super Bowl is not something the players will be intimidated by, even though they have lost key personnel to injury.

Some of the Defensive players will be back for Seattle which is a boost, while Marshawn Lynch has had an extra week with the team having been signed just before Week 17 after Chris Carson joined the other Running Backs in being ruled out for the season. I expect Lynch will get to see a bit more playing time in this one, and injuries on the Philadelphia Defensive Line should mean Seattle can get things going on the ground.

It will certainly be music to the ears of Russell Wilson who is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, although the Quarter Back scrambles from pressure as well as anyone. More importantly Wilson is one of the best passers of the ball when on the run and his ability to extend plays does see the Seahawks hurt opponents when they don't always expect it.

There are some holes in the Philadelphia Secondary which Wilson can exploit if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and I do think this will make it a tough day for Carson Wentz on his PlayOff debut.

Give the Quarter Back his due first of all- Wentz has been brilliant the last four games and he has shown the Eagles are right to see him as a franchise Quarter Back. Unfortunately the Eagles have been destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball and I can't see a magical run like they had when winning the Super Bowl three years ago.

Carson Wentz is likely going to be throwing to players that were way down the depth chart or coming off practice squads again on Sunday, but the Seattle Defensive unit is likely to be bolstered by a couple of key returns from injury. That makes the challenge for Wentz all the greater, although he should be aided by Miles Sanders at Running Back.

Sanders was banged up last week, but can come in with Boston Scott to at least make some big plays on the ground against a Seattle Defensive Line which has struggled against the run for much of the season. That will give the home underdog a chance for the upset if they can keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots, but even then you do find it hard to know whether the Receivers can make enough plays for their team and Quarter Back.

The Eagles have used being an underdog as a huge motivation in their last couple of PlayOff runs and one led to a Super Bowl win. That means they need to be respected, but Seattle look to be coming in a little healthier and I do think they are the stronger all around team.

Seattle have also won here already this season which has to give them a mental boost and they have now covered in their last four visits to Philadelphia. They have an impressive record bouncing back off a loss and the Seahawks are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen road games.

Philadelphia have been very impressive as an underdog in the PlayOffs, which I have mentioned, but they are also 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog. As much as I love the spirit they have shown under Head Coach Doug Pederson, I think a competitive loss is on the cards for the Eagles.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 62-67-2, - 21.16 Units (259 Units Staked, - 8.17% Yield)

NFL Wild Card Play Off Picks 2019 (January 5-6)

We have reached the NFL Play Offs and I am looking forward to the final month of the season where there is the potential for some huge stories to be written and some brilliant games to be played.

Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.

However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.

Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.

Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.

The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .

In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.

Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.

Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.

Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.

Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.

I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.

The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.

The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.

I will take the points on offer with the road team here.


Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.

This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.

The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.

Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.

However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.

There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.

I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.

Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.

While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.

Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.

With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.

Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.

I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.

The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.

Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.

Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.

Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.

As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.

Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.

Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.

The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.

It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.

There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.

The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.

Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.

I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.

Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.

Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.

Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.

Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.

The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.

There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.

I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.

Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.

The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.

Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.

The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)