Boxing Picks 2024- Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Fredrick Lawson (January 6th)

Most Boxing fans have to have enjoyed 2023 and all of the big fights that were eventually offered up.

Unifications and Undisputed Champions were produced, while Saudi Arabia's money has just reinvigorated the Heavyweight Division.

More big nights are coming up in 2024 with the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship decided just six weeks into the New Year.

The Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk fight will take place in Riyadh Season and it was expected to be followed by Anthony Joshua vs Deontay Wilder before the Day of Reckoning card changed the plans.

After losing to Joseph Parker, Wilder is out and so Francis Ngannou has now been presented with an opportunity to back up his valiant effort against Tyson Fury by stepping in to take on Anthony Joshua instead. That fight is rumoured to be going down on Friday 8th March with another Heavyweight card loading up for Saudi Arabia, although we will find out much more in around ten days time.

As mentioned, the Heavyweight Division has been reinvigorated by the Saudi money and the same country may provide the funds to make sure we finally have an Undisputed Light Heavyweight World Champion. Dmitry Bivol has played his part, but Artur Beterbiev has to see off Callum Smith next weekend before he can finalise a fight that many fans of the sport have been calling for.

2024 is looking like another solid year and hopefully it will be on in which the likes of Jaron Ennis can push onto the next level and become the star he looks like.

Canelo Alvarez vs David Benavidez would be a big fight that people would tune in for, while there are plenty of big domestic and world level nights that should keep us happy as fans of the sport.

My only worry would be that the very biggest names would rather be inactive and wait for potential Saudi riches to land on their door rather than keeping their careers ticking along- however, some of the early fights that have been signed off and some of those that are rumoured to be in the making are certainly going to bring some exciting nights together.

Last season was a disappointing one as far as the Boxing Picks went and a far cry from 2022.

A little bit of fortune was missing, but some poor selections were also made in the season. Improving the latter and hoping for better from the former will be the key to having a much stronger 2024, which begins with the return of a huge prospect on January 6th.

Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Fredrick Lawson

Eighteen months ago, Vergil Ortiz Jr won a nineteenth straight professional bout to begin his career and all had been earned in Stoppages as he looked to become a real player in the Welterweight Division.

He was supposed to be in the ring a few months ago, but Ortiz Jr suffered another injury setback and he has admitted that there was some concern that his career could be over.

Vergil Ortiz Jr looked a big Welterweight and some have suggested the weight cuts have been a major factor in the setbacks he has suffered. It has meant a relatively inactive few years and this is going to be just the fifth fight Ortiz Jr has had since December 2019.

This time he will be at Light Middleweight and Vergil Ortiz Jr is set to face Fredrick Lawson, a veteran who fought and won twice in 2023 having been out of the ring since being Stopped in the Tenth Round back in September 2021.

Fredrick Lawson is taking a big step up and the biggest question is how much ring rust has accumulated for Vergil Ortiz Jr.

You have to believe the punch power will still be there even with the move up in weight and Vergil Ortiz Jr will be looking to just remind people of the talent and the excitement that was building around his career.

Activity is going to be key for Ortiz Jr going forward and he should be looking to get another fight on the board before the midway point of this year. He should not have too many problems with Fredrick Lawson and Vergil Ortiz Jr is expected to keep his Knock Out rate going.

The last four wins produced by Vergil Ortiz Jr has seen him break down opponents in the second half of the scheduled Rounds. However, those have also been at a much higher level than this one and Ortiz Jr can get some rust out in the first couple of Rounds before really putting Fredrick Lawson under the cosh and forcing an end before we hear the bell for the Seventh Round.

One of the more controversial World Title bouts in 2023 involved Ismael Barroso when the referee inexplicably Stopped his bout against Rolly Romero.

The 40 year old looked to be on the road to a major upset, but Romero was almost gifted the Stoppage that allowed him to pick up the WBA Light Welterweight Title.

He was supposed to defend that Title against Ohara Davies, but Rolly has been ruled out with an injury and so the British fighter has an opportunity to win this Interim World Title.

Ohara Davies has losses on his record to Josh Taylor and Jack Catterall and it did look like his career was potentially over- he suggested as much himself. He took a bit of time away and has returned with seven wins in a row, including Stopping Lewis Ritson last year to become the Number One contender for this World Title.

Rather than taking money to step-aside, Ohara Davies has pushed for his opportunity and has finally been given a chance. The fight was due to take place last month, but visa issues forced a delay and now Davies and Barroso act as the chief support to the main event.

Ismael Barroso's performance against Rolly Romero has to be respected, but it also depends on how highly you rate Rolly.

Simply put, I don't really do that and his performance was not good enough.

We have seen some poor performances from Ohara Davies, but he has looked highly motivated for this opportunity and he has shown he has the power to break down the older Ismael Barosso.

The latter has some power of his own, but Ohara Davies can outlast him and win the World Title inside the distance.

MY PICKS: Vergil Ortiz Jr to Win Between 1-6 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ohara Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

NFL Week 18 Picks 2024 (January 6-7)

We are now into the final week of the regular season and the parity of the NFL can not be any clearer considering the many teams that still have a chance of earning a spot in the post-season.

Seedings are still up for grabs, but only nine of the fourteen PlayOff teams have been confirmed and working out the permutations will be firmly on the mind of the fans and the pundits as games are played on Saturday and Sunday.

Some things have been decided with the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens both locked in as the Number 1 Seeds in their respective Conferences, while the Cleveland Browns know they will be travelling to the AFC South Division winners next week. It does mean you need to have an extra look at the plans of teams with nothing to play for, while also acknowledging that spreads are going to be out of sync from what we have been watching as the layers take no chances with those who 'need to win'.

Those teams can be vulnerable to the pressurised environments and so getting through Week 18 for the NFL Picks will be just that much more challenging too.

Injuries have been ramped up this season with key players missing out on the post-season, even when teams have earned those spots, and health is perhaps most important now we are into January and the Super Bowl is five weeks away.

This is not the time of the season to be banged up or losing momentum, but teams have to deal with the way the chips have fallen as we round out the season and prepare for Wild Card Weekend.

After results from Week 17, my current top five look like this:

1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3): crushing the Miami Dolphins secured top Seed in the AFC and the Baltimore Ravens have to believe they are favourites to reach the Super Bowl knowing two home wins will do the job.

2) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): they bounced back from a rough home loss on Christmas Day and other results secured the top Seed in the NFC for the 49ers.

3) Dallas Cowboys (11-5): the win was extremely fortunate over the Lions last week, but the Cowboys did win and will secure the Number 2 Seed in the NFC by knocking off Washington.

4) Buffalo Bills (10-6): only the Ravens have a longer winning run than the Buffalo Bills who will be vulnerable if they were to lose on Sunday. However, a win for the Bills secures the Number 2 Seed in the AFC.

5) Cleveland Browns (11-5): perhaps a controversial choice, but the Browns join the Bills in winning four in a row. Unlike Buffalo, Cleveland know they are playing on Wild Card Weekend no matter what and they have a Quarter Back in Joe Flacco who looks to be getting hot, much as he did when leading Baltimore to a Super Bowl win.

Next week the idea is to rank the teams that make the post-season, but it is very difficult to look beyond the top two as the most likely winners of the Super Bowl.

The Bills do look really dangerous in the AFC, but finding a team that may have the confidence to head into San Francisco and beat them before the Super Bowl is tougher. Yes, Baltimore did that on Christmas Day, but picking a team from the NFC to replicate that effort is not going to be easy and especially not after having the extra PlayOff Round to negotiate.

It has been a pretty good season for the NFL Picks, but there are still some tough weeks to negotiate between now and the Super Bowl.

Week 18 can be hazardous and it is very much one in which you need to make sure you are on top about starting news more than most.

Two games are set for Saturday, with potentially huge PlayOff implications, before a very busy Sunday to round off the season.

The AFC East Division decider has been flexed into Sunday Night Football and Picks from the games scheduled will be added to this thread.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Head Coach Mike Tomlin has already maintained a proud record of never having a losing season leading the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) thanks to back to back wins. Those have kept the Steelers alive when it comes to trying to secure a return to the PlayOffs having missed out last season, but Pittsburgh know they are not in control of their own destiny.

Losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots will really haunt this fanbase and the players if the Steelers are not able to find a way into the post-season, but all they can focus on is winning this game.

It is pretty simple for Pittsburgh, who play on Saturday, although against big rivals the Baltimore Ravens (13-3).

The Steelers need to win and either need the Jacksonville Jaguars OR Buffalo Bills to lose on Sunday, but a loss will end Pittsburgh's hopes of joining AFC North rivals Baltimore and Cleveland in the PlayOffs. They may be catching the Ravens at a good time with Baltimore having secured the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and already announcing that Lamar Jackson will not be starting this game.

Instead the ball will be given to Tyler Huntley as the Ravens will also likely to decide to rest any key starters that may be carrying any kind of injury concern. This did not work out very well for Baltimore in the 2019 season when they rested players in Week 18 and ultimately were upset in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs as the top Seed, but John Harbaugh believes history is not going to repeat and he will do what is best for this set of players before hosting a PlayOff game in a couple of weeks time.

That does mean a significant rest period for the starters, but the Ravens are happy with the choices being made and they remain the favourites to come out of the AFC gauntlet and take their place in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.

It also will not matter to Mike Tomlin or the Pittsburgh Steelers who know how motivated the Baltimore backup players are likely to be against a rival. The fact the Raven are at home means the fans will be expecting the backups to also perform at a level befitting a Baltimore player and so there will be some pressure on the Ravens to make sure they make things as difficult as possible for Pittsburgh.

It is a tough ask, mainly because the Steelers have gotten the better of a full strength Baltimore team more often than not in recent seasons. The Steelers already hold a win over the Ravens in 2023, and that means Pittsburgh have won six of the last seven games between these AFC North rivals.

All that matters is winning again and the Steelers are likely going to lean on the Defensive unit to make the big plays against a backup Quarter Back and likely a makeshift Receiving corps around Tyler Huntley.

While not Lamar Jackson, and who is, Tyler Huntley is able to move and make some plays with his legs, and it will be just as important to the backup as it would be to the starter to make sure Baltimore establish the run. They will have a chance to do that against this Pittsburgh Defensive Line and it will make life that much more comfortable for the Quarter Back.

Moving into third and manageable spots is so important for any team and especially when you are playing your backup players.

There are areas for Tyler Huntley to exploit in the Pittsburgh Secondary, while being in front of the chains will just slow the Steelers pass rush so this is not a game in which Pittsburgh can expect to just come out and dominate. Being without Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr will be a problem for the Ravens, but Tyler Huntley can at least give his team an opportunity to win this game.

Ultimately it could come down to how many of the Baltimore Defensive starters are given a chance to play the game- most headlines will focus on the Offensive players being sat down, but the Ravens are strong on the other side of the ball too and the will feel they can contain Mason Rudolph, who has moved from the third string Quarter Back past both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubiskey to start.

Mason Rudolph has clearly given the Steelers something of a spark and led the team to back to back wins as the underdog, although the expectations are different as a big road favourite. The Quarter Back has to be hoping that Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris can have big games on the ground against the 'weakness' of this Baltimore Defensive unit.

Running the ball has been possible against the Ravens, and that should give Mason Rudolph a chance to lead the win on the road. He will have an opportunity to throw into this Secondary with some confidence if Pittsburgh keep Rudolph in front of the chains, although the key will be to make sure the Quarter Back avoids mistakes against a turnover-creating team.

The expectation is that the Steelers may do enough to win, but covering the spread as a road favourite may be difficult in what is historically a rivalry that produces tight games. It is perhaps no surprise that the underdog is 23-5-3 against the spread when the Ravens and Steelers have met under their current Head Coaches, including the Steelers winning outright as the underdog earlier in the season.

John Harbaugh really knows how to get the best out of his team when they are set as the underdog and the Ravens have a tremendous 23-5-2 record against the spread when set as the dog since 2017. That becomes 5-1-1 against the spread at home and Tyler Huntley may be able to make enough plays to keep this one close enough to make the points count.

The backup Quarter Back has a decent 6-3 record against the spread in his previous starts, but Mason Rudolph has improved to 9-3 against the spread in his own twelve starts for the Steelers. However, the change from being an underdog to a favourite will add some pressure and Baltimore can keep this close and perhaps even eliminate their AFC North rivals from post-season contention.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: There is still a chance that the winner of this very important AFC South game in a Saturday primetime spot will be hosting a PlayOff Wild Card game next week. However, that will depend on the Tennessee Titans upsetting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, so the only focus for the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) and Houston Texans (9-7) is earning a victory.

Win and they will be going to the PlayOffs even if Jacksonville are able to win on th road on Sunday.

Lose and that team will be thinking about some missed opportunities down the stretch.

There are similarities between the Colts and Texans in 2023- both started with rookie Quarter Backs and were expected to use the season as one of transition.

Instead the Houston Texans have been propelled by the strong play out of CJ Stroud, while the Indianapolis Colts lost Anthony Richardson for the season very early on, but have rallied behind backup Gardner Minshew who has plenty of NFL starting experience.

The two teams both won in Week 17, but have lost two of their last four games and the fans will feel an opportunity could have been blown to have already wrapped up the Division as the Jaguars were sliding.

None of the players will be thinking about anything but producing their best on Saturday and making sure the season does not end right now.

Gardner Minshew is likely going to be a key part of the outcome as far as the Indianapolis Colts go and the Quarter Back has to make sure he brings his error-free Football to the Stadium. A much improved Texans team on both sides of the ball are a genuine threat, and the pressure is ramped up by the fact the Houston Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run as effectively as they have all season.

The Colts do have Jonathan Taylor at Running Back and he is very capable, but this is a Texans Defensive Line that has been stout up front and who will be looking to pressurise Gardner Minshew into throwing from third and relatively long spots on the field. Houston are capable of limiting Taylor and that will also allow them to continue to pin back their ears and try and rattle a veteran Quarter Back through the pass rush.

Even with injuries to some of their key rushers, Houston have continued to earn plenty of pressure in the backfield and the Indianapolis Offensive Line have not really been able to stand up to scrutiny. You have to expect to see more of the same on Saturday and the Texans should be able to get into Gardner Minshew's face and see if they can force the Quarter Back to rush his throws and make mistakes.

The pressure from the pass rushers have certainly helped this Houston Secondary, who have also been turning the ball over, and the Texans will feel they can stall enough drives to give CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit every chance of securing a road win.

Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and the entire Houston organisation have come on leaps and bounds since the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at home. CJ Stroud showed up in that game, but the Texans were beaten despite having more yards on the day and the rookie Quarter Back returned from a concussion with a strong effort to beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

The Texans really struggled to run the ball in the first meeting, but they may have a bit more success in this one even with the Colts Defensive Line looking healthier. In recent games Houston's Offensive Line have been strong when it comes to opening the running lanes and that should make things a bit more comfortable for CJ Stroud as he looks for the biggest win in his very young NFL career.

If they can run the ball, Stroud should be able to move the pocket and give himself a bit more time to allow routes to develop down the field. Injuries to the Receiving corps are a blow, but the likes of Nico Collins are still stepping up for their Quarter Back and Houston may just enjoy a narrow edge in this big game.

An improved Defensive Line should mean Houston put more pressure on Gardner Minshew to have to move the chains, while the Quarter Back is just 6-17 straight up when set as the underdog.

Gardner Minshew did come in as the relief Quarter Back to beat the Houston Texans in Week 2, but he is 0-3 against them when starting and the preparation for this player should really aid Houston.

Backing Houston as the road favourite is not the greatest feeling, but the sharp money seems to be with the Texans and they can use a bit of CJ Stroud magic and an improved Defensive unit to win here and move into the post-season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: There may have been a shoot or two of recovery after Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending injury, but the Minnesota Vikings (7-9) have been unable to find consistency out of their backup Quarter Back options.

It was Jaren Hall who was given an opportunity in Week 17, but a blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers has effectively ended the Vikings hopes of making the PlayOffs. They are not completely dead hopes, but Minnesota need to win here and hope the aforementioned Packers and Seattle Seahawks both lose as favourites and also at least one of Tampa Bay or New Orleans.

It is a long shot.

Even beating the Detroit Lions (11-5) will be tough for the Vikings who lost at home to the new NFC North Division Champions two weeks ago. In Week 17, Detroit were on the wrong end of what looked to be a blown refereeing call that prevented them winning in Dallas and that defeat may ultimately have cost the Lions a chance to earn the Number 2 Seed in the Conference.

Despite that, Head Coach Dan Campbell has already spoken about playing his starters and the Lions would love to go into their home PlayOff game next week having avoided back to back losses. A win could still see them move up a place in the Seedings, but that will depend on both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles losing and so the Lions are simply trying to head into the post-season with a positive momentum behind them.

After a tough Defensive battle in Week 17, Detroit should be able to get a bit more going Offensively in this one with a decent balance expected to be found. The Lions Offensive Line have really cracked open some big running lanes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and both are expected to share the carries in this one after combining for 135 rushing yards in the win over the Vikings in Minnesota.

This is important for the Lions through the remainder of this season and will just ease the pressure on Jared Goff, who made some bad mistakes that ultimately proved costly in the loss to the Cowboys. The Quarter Back has not been as clean with his throws in recent games, but being well supported by the Running Backs will mean Jared Goff is throwing from third and manageable spots and he should be able to expose the Minnesota Secondary.

Jared Goff will likely have time in the pocket and he has enjoyed playing at home, but the Detroit Lions will have to respect the Vikings after the close game played in Minnesota.

The visiting team are turning back to Nick Mullens at Quarter Back, but it was his four Interceptions in the loss to the Lions that saw him benched in favour of Jaren Hall in the eventual defeat to the Packers. Nick Mullens was back in the role in the second half after Hall struggled and the Vikings are likely going to need to lean on him here.

As many teams have found out, including Minnesota, the Detroit Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball and so it is very unlikely that Nick Mullens will be playing in front of the chains. That did not prevent him having a big game statistically two weeks ago, although the multiple Interceptions ended any late comeback bid.

Unsurprisingly Nick Mullens did take a few Sacks in the defeat to the Lions and he is likely going to be under immense pressure in this one with the Vikings unlikely to have gotten a lot going on the ground. However, Mullens will know that there are holes in this Detroit Secondary and he has the kind of Receivers that can break open for some big yards.

Even then, it is going to be tough for the Vikings to stay with the Detroit Lions and more Interceptions would not be a big surprise.

Those can turn the game in favour of the Lions who can be sent into the PlayOffs with a lot of confidence and belief by getting the better of the 2022 NFC North Champions for a second time in three weeks. The superior balance Offensively will make a difference and Detroit have been very good at home all season.

Detroit are 8-4 against the spread bouncing back from a loss over the last couple of seasons, but they have been really good at that this year (4-0).

The Vikings have been a good road underdog to back, but the players may feel the PlayOff hopes were extinguished last week in the blowout loss to Green Bay. While they can throw their way into keeping this close for a while, eventually Nick Mullens may make one or two mistakes and the Lions can pull clear.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: Is it really the end of the Bill Belichick era in Foxboro? While the future Hall of Fame Head Coach has no plans to retire, the New England Patriots (4-12) are seriously considering a change with the team never really recovering after allowing Tom Brady to move on.

Quarter Back issues have really held back the Patriots, while some feel that they are an Offensive unit that have not really modernised. With a high Draft Pick coming up, the New England Patriots may feel the change in the Head Coach will allow someone new to target the Quarter Back to select for the franchise.

Bill Belichick is never going to become embroiled in rumours, but the fans are likely going to arrive at the Stadium looking to give their Head Coach all of his flowers. After all of the successes with the New England Patriots, it is the least Bill Belichick deserves and the players may also be highly motivated to perform for the veteran Head Coach.

They will be hosting the New York Jets (6-10) in a disappointing Week 18 for both teams who would have had such high hopes going into the season.

Out of the two, the Jets were certainly being talked about as a potential Super Bowl Champion with Aaron Rodgers leading the Offense and a very good looking Defensive unit. Instead, the Jets have struggled without Rodgers and likely will be looking for a new backup Quarter Back moving forward now that Zach Wilson has perhaps proven he is not to be trusted.

Trevor Siemian will be getting the call to start at Quarter Back and it looks another tough match up for him after the Jets were blown out by the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. For all their struggles this season, the New England Defensive unit have largely played well and the Defensive Line will feel they can control Breece Hall and force Siemian to beat them through the air.

It would mean throwing from behind a shaky Offensive Line and into a Secondary that will be looking to take advantage of any weak throws. Turning the ball over will be important to the outcome of the game and New England can play their part against Trevor Siemian and company.

The line of scrimmage will be important when the Patriots have the ball too and they may feel they can at least enjoy a bit more success than the Jets. In saying that, it is likely only going to be slightly more success and there will still be a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Bailey Zappe who has taken over from Mac Jones at Quarter Back.

He may also have a little more time in the pocket considering the lacklustre pass rush generated by the New York Jets of late, although Zappe is still going to be contending with a Secondary playing hard and fast.

Bailey Zappe has to avoid the mistakes that could prove costly and especially with the poor weather conditions expected on Sunday.

Those conditions may actually work in favour of New England who may have the superior chance to establish the run and the Patriots can play hard enough for their Head Coach to send Bill Belichick off with a victory, if this is indeed his last game here.

New England and the New York Jets have been terrible teams, but a bit more motivation for the home team may see them come out on top to round off what has been an underwhelming season for both AFC East teams.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South is still up for grabs going into Week 18 of the regular season, although both of these teams will have one eye on how Tampa Bay are getting on at the same time.

Ultimately it is the Buccaneers who control the Division, even after their loss to the New Orleans Saints (8-8) in Week 17- if Tampa Bay win, they win the South.

However, a win for the Carolina Panthers will mean the winner of this game will earn a home PlayOff game next week and that gives the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) a shot. They were blown out by the Chicago Bears last week and the Falcons have little margin for error, while the Saints may still get into the post-season as a Wild Card team as long as they win.

Even if the Buccaneers are up big, Atlanta should not should lack motivation to spoil the season for the New Orleans Saints. Head Coach Arthur Smith is under the pump and may not be signed up for 2024 if the Falcons miss the PlayOffs, but he will certainly give the Atlanta ownership something to think about at 8-9 rather than 7-10, no matter what has happened in Carolina.

Tight losses to the Panthers and Buccaneers down the stretch are potentially costly blows for the Falcons, but they do match up well enough with the Saints to believe they can give the home team all they can handle. The play-calling has to be smarter and there is every chance that Desmond Ridder has to play at Quarter Back, despite the Head Coach clearly hoping Taylor Heinicke will be able to suit up.

Regardless of the Quarter Back situaion, the Falcons have to know they need to lean on Bijan Robinson, who has been picking up big yards per carry. For some reason only known to those inside the Atlanta facilities, Bijan Robinson has not been given a heavy workload as both a runner and a pass-catching Back, especially when you think of how effective he has been.

Running the ball against the Saints is never going to be easy, but the Falcons have to keep pounding the rock and making sure that whoever is at Quarter Back is able to utilise play-action passes, while at other times not needing to allow routes a long time to develop from third and long positions on the field.

There are issues in the New Orleans Secondary, injury included, and Atlanta do have a Receiving corps that will benefit from a more productive Quarter Back going forward. For now, Ridder/Heinicke should be able to make plays down the field to those Receivers as long as they stick with Bijan Robinson running the ball as hard as he has been, and the Falcons should be able to move the ball.

Interceptions have been a huge blight on both Quarter Backs and those could be crucial in this game, but the Falcons do have enough Offensively to score points here, as they did when they beat New Orleans at home.

Avoiding mistakes is particularly important as the Atlanta Defensive unit have continued to play at a high level and will be able to at least make an impact on the game as long as they not asked to defend short fields. The New Orleans Saints have not really been consistent on this side of the ball, while the trade for Derek Carr has not helped the Offensive unit move on as far as would have been hoped.

Head Coach Dennis Allen has to be feeling the pressure, but the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 has given him and his team hope. However, it may have come at a cost with Alvin Kamara still trending in a direction that will see him miss this Week 18 game after being injured against the Buccaneers and that is a major problem for the Saints.

He is not only the starting Running Back, but Kamara has long been a key pass-catching safety blanket and the Saints will take a serious hit without him. The Offensive Line have not really opened big holes for the Running Backs in recent games, but Kamara was averaging 4.5 yards per carry last week and New Orleans may struggle to replicate that against this tough Falcons Defensive Line.

Having to lean on Derek Carr is far from ideal as he has not really built up the kind of chemistry that would have been expected with his Receivers. Chris Olave has had some big games, but he is banged up and this Atlanta Secondary is more than capable of holding their own against the Receiving corps, especially with the pass rush pressure being generated up front.

While they may not get to Carr consistently, the Quarter Back could be forced to throw quickly if the Saints are stuck in third and long and a good tackling day from the Falcons could see them stall drives.

This should mean the Falcons have every chance of earning an upset here and ending the New Orleans season, while hoping Carolina can do Atlanta a favour too.

After the blowout in Chicago, it is hard to trust Atlanta, but New Orleans are not playing that well themselves and losing Alvin Kamara is a potentially huge blow.

The Saints did win last week, but they are 3-10-1 against the spread in the two seasons under Dennis Allen after a winning performance. They are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite and the pressure will be on the Saints who are expected to win by every fan attending the SuperDome wearing 'Black and Gold'.

While Atlanta are not exactly a team you want to rush out and back, especially not with a potentially Lame Duck Head Coach, it has to be said that they do look like they potentially match up well with New Orleans. Having the hook on the Field Goal would be ideal, but this spread may actually shrink if Kamara is officially ruled out so taking the points is the play.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: A controversial win on Saturday coupled with a Philadelphia Eagles collapse on New Year's Eve has pushed the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) to the top of the NFC East.

A Division that has not had a repeat winner in almost twenty years may see that run extended another season as long as Dallas can win this game. They will also secure the Number 2 Seed in the NFC and that will mean having an opportunity to host potentially two PlayOff games in a Stadium where the Cowboys won all eight regular season games.

Excitement has to be building that Dallas can put together a deep PlayOff run and it is important to Head Coach Mike McCarthy, who has been put on the hot seat by Jerry Jones earlier in the season. The owner and the fans expect this team to be good enough to reach the NFC Championship Game and so the Cowboys can ill-afford a slip up in Week 18, one that could see them fall as low as Number 5 in the NFC Seedings.

Focusing fully on the Washington Commanders (4-12) is important, and that should not be an issue considering Dallas were beaten in this Stadium in Week 18 last season. This time the starters are all likely going to be playing significant minutes and the Commanders have had a miserable end to the season.

Spoiling the plans of the Cowboys will provide motivation, but lots of changes are expected in Washington in the off-season and most expect Head Coach Ron Rivera to be let go as soon as Monday. However, Washington have lost seven in a row and they have suffered multiple losses by over 14 points in that time.

Sam Howell will once again be given an opportunity to start at Quarter Back, but the Commanders are in line for a high NFL Draft Pick and a new Head Coach may want to pick his own QB to go forward. The current incumbent will be looking to impress, but Howell has struggled behind this Offensive Line and this looks a tough match up for him.

His numbers were not all that bad on Thanksgiving Day when Sam Howell and the Commanders were blown out by the Dallas Cowboys, but that was largely down to the blowout game state. He may have had 300 passing yards, but Howell did not throw a Touchdown, but had an Interception in the 35 point defeat.

The Commanders would love to lean on Brian Robinson who had 44 yards on nine carries last week against the 49ers, but the Dallas Defensive Line could be receiving a big boost. They have struggled to stop the run without Jonathan Hankins, but he is expected to play this week and Dallas may be able to contain Robinson and really force this game to be played on Sam Howell's shoulders.

In recent games, the Cowboys pass rush may not have gotten home as much as they would have liked, but they were disruptive again last week. With a lead, the Cowboys can really get after Sam Howell and they Sacked this Quarter Back four times in the Thanksgiving Day win.

Putting Sam Howell under pressure could allow the Defensive Backs to step into a turnover or two and the Dallas Cowboys can head into the post-season with some real momentum.

The expectation is that the Defensive unit will play their part and this looks a good opportunity for the Dallas Offense to show out too. They have not been as efficient on the road as they have been at home, but the Cowboys Offensive Line should be able to bully this Washington Defensive Line missing Jonathan Allen and that should mean Tony Pollard is able to have one of his better outings in recent games.

The struggles have been against solid Defensive Lines like Miami and Detroit, but the Commanders are banged up and not being able to clamp down on the run. We should see Pollard getting the team moving and that only makes Dak Prescott and the passing game that much more dangerous.

Since trading away key pass rushers, Washington have not really been able to rattle Quarter Backs, while the inability to stop the run means those players do not have to hold onto the ball nearly as long as the rushers would hope. Dak Prescott is going to be facing a Washington Secondary that could be without key Backs and he should have time to locate his Receivers down the field.

Dallas are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home, but they have lived up to expectations and are 11-4 against the spread as a road favourite since 2021. The Commanders are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog in 2023 and even the motivation of trying to spoil the Dallas end of the season may not be enough to remain competitive.

Injuries at all levels on the Defensive unit will make it tough to stop the Cowboys and the weather conditions look to be trending in a good direction for passers on Sunday. The Cowboys did lose here last season, but have won four of their last five against Washington and three of those wins have been by at least 15 point margins.

Covering may need a late stop, but the Cowboys can do that and roll into Wild Card Weekend as one of the hosts of a PlayOff game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Bad losses will always sting that much more as the regular season winds down and the Seattle Seahawks (8-8) know they suffered one of those when going down to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. It means they are no longer in control of their own destiny having seen a two game winning run snapped and the Seahawks have to win and hope the Green Bay Packers are not able to do the same.

Worrying about what is going on in Green Bay would be a mistake though and the Seahawks need to focus on this Divisional rival.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-12) fought back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on the road last week and there will be a motivation to end this season on a high. The win means they cannot finish with the top Pick in the NFL Draft, but the Cardinals players will not be concerning themselves about that.

Instead they need to show that they can be a part of any rebuild that is taking place in Arizona and there will be questions to answer about Kyler Murray's suitability to be franchise Quarter Back going forward. He was instrumental in the win over the Eagles in Week 17, but Kyler Murray will be looking to hand the ball over to James Connor and allow the Offensive Line to continue paving the road.

In recent games the Cardinals Offensive Line have really bullied teams up front and allowed Connor and company to rack up some huge yards on the ground. They should be able to pick up from where the Steelers left off in Week 17 and continue to crush the Seattle Seahawks on the ground, which in turn keeps Kyler Murray in a strong position on the field to make his plays.

However, it has not been all positive and light for the Cardinals who have lost DJ Humphries for the season- the Left Tackle's absence could be potentially huge when it comes to sustaining drives. While the expectation is that the Cardinals will continue to run the ball efficiently, the Seahawks could take advantage of that pressure when Kyler Murray has to throw the ball.

The Secondary will feel they can step up for the team and the Seahawks could be tough to peg back if they can get into a lead, but Pete Carroll will know that his team needs to find a way to slow down Connor and the run.

If they can do that, Seattle should have the balance Offensively to beat this Divisional rival for a fifth time in a row.

Kenneth Walker III looks to be trending in a positive direction, but Seattle's Offensive Line could be down a couple of starters, which is a blow. A fully healthy Line would expect to dominate the line of scrimmage, but even the backups may have some success establishing the run against this Cardinals Defensive Line that has looked worn.

Keeping Geno Smith in third and manageable is the key for the Seahawks- the Quarter Back has the Receivers that can make big plays for him, but not needing to hold the ball for too long should mean Smith is able to dissect this Secondary rather than scrambling from pressure to allow routes to develop.

Arizona have struggled to generate much of a pass rush of late though and this does look a good chance for the Seahawks to earn the victory and then do some scoreboard watching to see if they can make the post-season.

The Cardinals had won three games before Week 17 and followed up by going 1-2 against the spread in the next game, while you cannot ignore the dominance of Seattle of this series in the last couple of years.

Seattle are also 5-2 against the spread playing off a loss in 2023, while they are 1-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite. Having the line below the key number 3 would be ideal, but it may mean one or two of the injured Offensive Linemen are available if that moves upwards, which is only a positive for the road team.

Arizona have not covered in any of the five Divisional games played this season and the Seahawks can do just enough to keep PlayOff hopes alive.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Blowing out the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 has put the Green Bay Packers (8-8) destiny in their own hands. Beating the Chicago Bears (7-9) will mean the Packers return to the PlayOffs twelve months after Aaron Rodgers and company were beaten by an eliminated NFC North rival in Week 18.

They have to be careful- last year the progressing Lions upset the Packers and this year they are taking on the Chicago Bears (7-9) who have won five of their last seven games. Defeats to the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns in that time came by very narrow margins and shows how well the Bears have been playing as the Head Coach and Quarter Back look to show they are worth keeping around.

It is a big moment for the Bears who are going to have the Number 1 Draft Pick again- they have to make a real decision on where they stand with Justin Fields. The Quarter Back has flashed enough to suggest he could be something very good in the NFL with a bit more support around him, but Justin Fields will want to show a bit more of that on the game tape in Week 18 having already poked the home fans in the lead up to this one.

Justin Fields will be a key part of the outcome of this game, but it may be the legs rather than the arm where is most effective.

The Bears Offensive Line have really grown into the season and they have been helping the team pound the rock effectively, while Fields is capable of getting out of the pocket and scrambling down the field. This is going to cause some problems for the Green Bay Packers who have had issues shutting down the run for a number of years now and so Chicago will be looking to control the clock and frustrate those in the stands.

Simply running the ball over and over will not be enough, but Justin Fields and the Chicago Offensive unit are that much more effective when they are playing in front of the chains. This also opens up the play-action early in Downs and Justin Fields will know there are one or two holes in the Packers Secondary, even with a returning Jaire Alexander, and the Bears should have success moving the ball and giving Green Bay something to think about.

They could do even more against a Packers team that 'must win'.

It is a new situation for many in this team, the youngest in the NFL, and Jordan Love could be without Christian Watson again. The Wide Receiver looked to be trending towards a return, but he missed practice on Friday and this is a blow for the Green Bay Packers young Quarter Back.

Jordan Love did lead the Packers to a very big road win over Chicago this season, but he will have to acknowledge that he is facing a much better Defensive unit. In each passing week, Chicago have really elevated their play and it has been a contributory factor to the strong run to end the season.

Aaron Jones is back, but he may not find a lot of running room against this Chicago Defensive Line. Instead he may be more of a factor as pass-catcher coming out of the backfield, The Packers will need to keep the Bears honest though and Jones is more than capable of finding those creases up front as he looks to keep Green Bay in front of the chains in this big game.

Doing so makes things more comfortable for Jordan Love, who will have room to attack in the Chicago Secondary as long as he continues to get the protection from the Offensive Line that he has enjoyed of late. Having Christian Watson back would have been a huge boost, but Love has enjoyed success with the Receivers that have been available and Green Bay should have a good day Offensively too.

However, there is pressure on the home team and the Bears have nothing to lose.

This is a factor that could stifle an inexperienced team and the Packers are favourites, a situation that has produced a 1-3 record against the spread in 2023.

With an improving Chicago team coming to town, it might be another outing where the Packers struggle to meet expectations and a 'stronger' team fell short twelve months ago against a surging NFC North rival.

Having the hook on the key number would have been brilliant, but Chicago can still make the points count against the hosts who are 'expected' to make the PlayOffs.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 1 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (January 6th)

What a difference a year makes.

This time last year it was full steam ahead to the first Grand Slam of the 2020 Tennis season, but that was before the scale of the impending pandemic was really clear to see. Back then many must have felt Covid-19 was going to go the same way as some of the other viruses that have popped over the last twenty years in not being able to spread in the manner it has and Tennis, like many other sports, was severely pushed to the limit.

Unlike some other sports, this really is a global one and the manner of the Tour meant in an inevitable suspension and then a host of tournaments looking to try and fill the gaps that were left on the calendar. Wimbledon was the sole Grand Slam that was not played, but the US Open and French Open being played within a month of one another was strange to see as well as the fact that the latter was played at a time of the year when conditions are vastly different to the usual May/June spot on the calendar.

Everyone's life is still being affected by the pandemic and the Tennis Tour is no different going into 2021 which has seen both the ATP and WTA Tour having to make big changes to the schedule. Usually January is a busy month leading into the Australian Open, but that tournament has been pushed back to early February and quarantine requirements in Australia means the vast majority of events have been cancelled this month.

This week we have a big WTA tournament in Abu Dhabi and the ATP Tour have put a one-off tournament in Antalya and moved Delray Beach forward for players to take part. The big names are largely missing as they prepare to travel to Australia where we are going to get a couple of tournaments in Melbourne and the ATP Cup before the Australian Open is due to begin on February 8th.

Both Tours have set out how they are going to schedule events through to the clay court season in early April, but at this stage there is no guarantee to know how anything will shake up in the weeks and months ahead.

There is a hope the Grand Slams will all be played in their traditional spots outside of the Australian Open, but I think the situation is going to be a fluid one for all the organisers to deal with.

The Tennis Picks were obviously not as common in 2020 as they had been previously and that was largely down to the uncertainty that was created by the Covid-19 outbreak. I actually went to the Dubai Final last year, but I would have been stunned if anyone was to have told me that would be the last Tennis match for months on end.

It was a difficult year for the Tennis Picks having had a number of winning seasons and I do think this will be a relatively slow month for selections despite the strong tournament being run by the WTA in Abu Dhabi. After that we have some time before the first of the Melbourne events take place and then the focus will quickly shift to the Australian Open when I will be expecting to have daily Picks.

While the men's tournaments are still expected to be dominated by the Big Three, the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev may consider themselves genuine Grand Slam challengers. The Austrian won his first Slam at the US Open and was a Finalist at the Australian Open and I think he can push the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although I expect both of those to be favourites in all of the Grand Slams barring injury.

The WTA Tour has long been very competitive and I am still quite convinced that Serena Williams may have missed her best chance to overtake Margaret Court in number of Singles Slams won- she may still have one more big effort in her, but Williams has lost her aura and there are some very good players on the Tour who can beat her on any given day, but consistency is lacking which means we could get a number of different Slam Champions yet again.

Talented youngsters will be looking to make a mark alongside some veterans who will feel they can add to the Grand Slams won, while Naomi Osaka is a three time Slam Champion that can only keep improving at 23 years old.

I am looking forward to what should be a stronger year back on the Tour for the Tennis players with positive news about a vaccine for Covid-19 that likely will begin to heal the world, albeit slowly.

I do think the next couple of months will be very difficult for the players, but it is something they will have begun to understand and plan for better than they could have done back in March when the Tour was suspended. They will still have to face a difficult two week quarantine when arriving in Australia and I am not sure what the conditions will be for the players when they are leaving Melbourne and heading off to other tournaments which have been scheduled to be played later in February and early March.

These are ever changing factors at the moment and something that will only be revealed closer to the time of those events once we have an idea as to the direction this pandemic is going to be taking around the world.

The First Round matches are beginning in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and my opening two selections of the 2021 season are below.

MY PICKS: Anett Kontaveit - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Wild Card Play Off Picks 2019 (January 5-6)

We have reached the NFL Play Offs and I am looking forward to the final month of the season where there is the potential for some huge stories to be written and some brilliant games to be played.

Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.

However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.

Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.

Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.

The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .

In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.

Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.

Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.

Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.

Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.

I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.

The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.

The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.

I will take the points on offer with the road team here.


Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.

This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.

The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.

Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.

However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.

There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.

I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.

Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.

While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.

Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.

With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.

Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.

I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.

The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.

Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.

Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.

Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.

As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.

Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.

Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.

The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.

It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.

There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.

The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.

Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.

I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.

Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.

Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.

Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.

Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.

The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.

There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.

I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.

Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.

The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.

Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.

The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)