College Football Picks- Playoff Semi Final 2025 (Thursday 9th January-Friday 10th January)

The new College Football Playoff format is going to be changed and evolved in the coming years and those involved will be keeping a close eye on the development of the Bracket this year.

No one wants to make sweeping statements after one sample of games, but the fact that all four First Round winners were able to beat higher Ranked opponents in the Quarter Final will have been noted.

Of course a couple of the lower Seeded teams were better than those that earned Byes through to the Quarter Final, but it won't be lost on many that none of the Conference Champions are going earn a chance of becoming National Champions. The long layoff between games for those earning the Bye into the Quarter Final was a concern before the games were played and you have to think that the organisers will want to make sure that is not a trend going forward.

In saying that, both Semi Final games should be a good one and there will still be a deserving National Champion crowned when all is said and done.

Right now it is very hard to look past the Ohio State Buckeyes who look intent on making up for an underachieving regular season, but the other three teams left standing will all be extremely confident on winning the Championship too.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It is best to not read too much into the first edition of the twelve team College Football Playoff, but it has been noted that the four First Round winners all came through their Quarter Final games to earn places in the final four.

Perhaps in the future the four teams earning the Bye will have guaranteed home field advantage to make up for the time spent away from competitive action, but that is a matter for another day.

Teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) could not, and should not, care less with the chance of winning a National Championship now coming over the horizon.

Both schools have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them as Penn State look for a first National Championship since 1986 and Notre Dame the first since 1988. Out of the two, the Fighting Irish have a lot more recent experience of playing in the College Football Playoff, but that is not going to count for a lot in this Semi Final.

The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers out of the Big Ten before upsetting the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs, but will note that there is room for improvement. Notre Dame were not very comfortable Offensively in the win over the Bulldogs and were perhaps fortunate that Georgia were without starting Quarter Back Carson Beck, who might have helped that Quarter Final become a lot more competitive than it was at the end.

Next up is the Penn State Nittany Lions who beat the SMU Mustangs and then covered as a big favourite in the victory over the Boise State Broncos. Head Coach James Franklin will have something to build upon thanks to this Semi Final run, but he will also be very aware that Penn State could not have asked for a better portion of the Bracket and this is a huge step up for the Nittany Lions, who were beaten by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.

Much like Notre Dame, Penn State will be very pleased with the efforts of the Defensive unit in their two Playoff wins, but may feel there is still more to come from Quarter Back Drew Allar and the rest of the Offense.

Unsuprisingly the Line of Scrimmage is going to play a huge factor in this game on both sides of the ball.

Running the ball against this Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been challenging for teams all season and they were able to shut down the Bulldogs in the Quarter Final. Doing the same against the Nittany Lions will be tougher considering the experience of the Quarter Back, which was missing against Georgia and allowed Notre Dame to dare the SEC Champions to beat them through the air.

Someone like Drew Allar is capable of making plays against this Secondary, although running the ball is also important to establish the balance and just offer Penn State's Offensive Line a little less time to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. The long Allar has to hold the ball to allow routes to develop down the field, the better for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who will feel any under pressure Quarter Back could be picked off by the Defensive Backs.

Extra possessions could be crucial in a Semi Final like this one and avoiding turnovers is going to be important for Drew Allar and Fighting Irish Quarter Back Riley Leonard.

Good news for the Fighting Irish is that Jerimiyah Love looks like he will be ready to go after some early doubts about the big time Running Back. There is little doubt that Love and Riley Leonard will be needed to help Notre Dame try and establish the run against a very good Penn State Defensive Line, one that is expected to have standout Abdul Carter available to play.

Ashton Jeanty was able to pick up 104 yards on the ground against Penn State in the Quarter Final, but it took thirty carries to do that and that just underlines how good the Nittany Lions have been up front.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back may aid Notre Dame, but they are going to have to be patient and try and wear down the Nittany Lions through the course of the Semi Final. It may also be a situation where Riley Leonard has to try and exploit the one or two holes that have existed in the Penn State Secondary and see if the pass can help open the running lanes.

Riley Leonard did not have a good game against the Georgia Bulldogs so may feel he has something to prove with his arm having thrown for just 90 yards in the Quarter Final win. He did avoid turnovers though and it is going to be a game that may end up being a field position battle where the team that plays the cleaner game is able to win.

The layers are finding it tough to separate Penn State and Notre Dame and the same can be said here.

Instead, it may just be the best option to focus on the Defensive units and expect them to come out on top.

College Football rules can make backing the under a bit more difficult- Overtime rules can see the points really rack up, and this is a game that is likely going to be close enough to potentially need an extra bit of time to find a way to separate them.

However, you have to believe both teams are going to grind this one out at times and that could see the clock run quicker than in other games. Both will look to pound the rock and open up the pass, but the Quarter Backs may not be tasked with trying to do too much when they step back to throw the ball in order to avoid turnovers.

Both the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have shown how good their Defensive units can be this season and a tight, competitive Semi Final is expected.

Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Losing to the Michigan Wolverines cost the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and put Head Coach Ryan Day firmly on the hot seat. Failing to beat their old rival again would have hurt the fans, but the fact the Buckeyes had lost to a Wolverines team in disarray this season really placed the pressure on the Head Coach.

Ultimately you are going to be judged by titles when you are the Head Coach of a school like Ohio State and the Buckeyes felt like an underperforming team with their 10-2 record to conclude the regular season.

Things have certainly changed in the Playoff though.

Missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game ended any chance of earning a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the Buckeyes have been able to turn their momentum right around. Blowing out the Tennessee Volunteers at home was impressive, but there is no doubt that the best performance in the Quarter Final Round came from Ohio State who crushed the Oregon Ducks, the Number 1 Seed and Big Ten Champion.

This is going to feel like a road game for the Buckeyes, no matter how the fans are known to travel, and that is because it is being played in Dallas.

Against the Texas Longhorns (13-2).

Losing the SEC Championship Game meant the Longhorns have also been forced to win two games to earn their spot in the Semi Final of the 2024 Playoff. They were comfortable winners against ACC Champions Clemson Tigers, but Texas made really hard work of beating the Big 12 Champions Arizona State Sun Devils and it feels like the Longhorns have a lot more to prove.

Quinn Ewers will earn the start at Quarter Back, but the fans are hoping there will be a big package in place for Archie Manning, who is seen as a much more effective runner and a confident passer. There will be plenty of motivation within Ewers though and that is because he actually originally signed up to play for Ohio State before transferring to Texas.

The Longhorns may need their Quarter Back to be at his absolute best against this tough Buckeyes Defense and that is all down to the strength of the Ohio State Defensive Line. It has been so tough to run against them all season, but the Texas Offensive Line have not been playing that well down the stretch and that will offer little encouragement for them.

Making the Longhorns a little one-dimensional will be seen as a big win for the Ohio State Buckeyes and will ramp up the pressure on Quinn Ewers.

The Quarter Back is obviously going to be confident in his own ability, but Texas' Offensive Line may struggle to keep the Buckeyes out of the backfield if Ewers is stuck in third and long spots on the field. A talented Ohio State Secondary have benefited from the pressure that the pass rush have generated and they will certainly believe they can stall drives and potentially pick off an errant pass or two.

This is going to be a prove it kind of game for Quinn Ewers and he will try and boost himself through the personal motivation of playing against his old team for the first time.

Ohio State's Quarter Back is also firing himself up through personal experiences and Will Howard is well aware of the Texas Longhorns having transferred to Ohio State after several years facing Texas in the Big 12. Will Howard has never beaten Texas (0-4), but it also fair to say that the Quarter Back was not throwing to the kind of talented Receivers at Kansas State as he is with Ohio State.

Unlike the Longhorns, the Buckeyes Offensive Line may have a lot more success running the ball and that is key to helping Will Howard and the passing game to really attack the Longhorns down the field. That Offensive Line has also been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, which is all the easier if you are playing in front of the chains and giving Will Howard a clean pocket would give Ohio State a big edge.

Take nothing away from the season that Texas have put together and the level of play that the Secondary have found, but their most recent games have been more difficult when it comes to stopping the pass. Will Howard can connect with the likes of Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith against the Longhorns Secondary and they can certainly pick up from where they left off against the Oregon Ducks as a team.

Ohio State look a big more battle hardened for a Semi Final of this magnitude and the team look to have got things figured out in time for the chance to win another National Championship.

Beating the Texas Longhorns will be far from easy, especially in Dallas, but the Buckeyes might have the more balanced Offensive game-plan and the stronger play at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes Secondary might be operating at a higher level than their counterparts with the Longhorns and it all may just end up leading to another big win for Ohio State to move into the National Championship Game to be played later this month.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Under 45.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

PlayOff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 9-10)

All credit has to be given to the NFL who have not only completed the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but have managed to do that without cancelling a single game.

It wasn't all plain-sailing with some Covid-19 outbreaks meaning the schedule had to be shifted around, while the Denver Broncos had to play one game with a Wide Receiver at Quarter Back after the entire QB unit was either testing positive or being in close contact with someone who had.

While I praise the NFL and the protocols they have placed, I do think this is not the time to allow complacency to set in- the NFL PlayOffs could be compromised if we have another Denver situation, while schedule changes are much more difficult with the post-season played over the next three weeks; ultimately a team will suffer if they are forced to win games midweek and then play another top NFL team days later in the Divisional Round or Championship Game.

That is something that is difficult to factor in, but Aaron Rodgers made the best comment to his Green Bay team-mates leaving for a mini-break and that was simply be responsible, look after yourselves and 'don't get Covid'.

We are now down to the final fourteen teams in the 2020 NFL season and the new PlayOff format means only the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will be enjoying a Bye over Super Wild Card Weekend. I think that is a real edge for those teams as they bid to reach the Super Bowl with home field advantage through the PlayOffs, although an upset is never that far away at this time of the season.

With the odds being released for Wild Card Weekend there will need to be some major upsets to prevent the top teams from making it through to the Divisional Round next weekend. My personal Ranking of the teams left in the PlayOffs has the likes of the Packers, Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills as those most likely to win the Super Bowl, although they are not that much further clear of the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe it will be an easy path for any of the teams looking to play into next month.

It should be a really fun weekend with the extra couple of games expanding the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and there are some good games coming up. You can read my Picks below from the Saturday and Sunday offerings.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL PlayOffs are essentially a 'new season' and that is what all fourteen teams playing in the post-season will be feeling as the new Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs begin on Saturday. This looks like one of the better games on deck as the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts and snap their long wait for a PlayOff win which stretches back twenty-six years.

There is going to be a pressure on the Bills with that long run without a PlayOff win hanging over their heads, but Josh Allen and the rest of the team have really shown another improvement on their 2019 form. The Quarter Back in particular has impressed, but Allen will know that he is going to be judged on how he plays in the post-season and whether he can show growth from last year when the Bills were beaten by the Houston Texans.

The Bills blew a big lead in that loss to the Texans and they were eventually undone in Overtime, but it was also a game played on the road. Finishing as the Number 2 Seed means the Bills are in control of playing the next two PlayOff Games at home as long as they can win on Wild Card Weekend.

Buffalo have lost their last six PlayOff Games, but the last four have been on the road and this Bills team is giving off a different vibe having won six games in a row going into the PlayOffs. They have shown a huge Offensive output which has helped the Defensive unit close out games, but they won't be taking anything for granted when the Indianapolis Colts come to town having won four of their last five games.

There has to be a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the Colts who needed the Bills beating the Miami Dolphins and then beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 to enter the PlayOffs. There is experience here through Head Coach Frank Reich and Quarter Back Philip Rivers, but the feeling is that the Colts need a bit of luck to break their way if they are going to work their way through the post-season towards the Super Bowl.

Some suggestions have been made that the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Rivers at Quarter Back at the end of this season regardless of how things go in the PlayOffs and some believe they could be in for Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Philip Rivers himself has admitted that he is not sure whether he will play another NFL season after this one comes to an end and the competitor in him will want to go out on a high.

He will be looking to lean on the Indianapolis Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor at Running Back which has been the key for the Colts in getting into the post-season. Taylor had a huge game in Week 17 and the Colts Offensive Line have been able to open up some considerable holes in recent games, while they will be confident in doing that against the Buffalo Defensive Line which has given up almost 5 yards per carry across their last three games.

While the game is close I certainly think the Colts will have success running the ball and that will be key for the underdog who will want to keep the powerful Buffalo Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible in cold conditions. It is very important for Indianapolis to also keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus giving Philip Rivers the best chance to have a big outing at Quarter Back as he looks to help lead the upset.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line has not been as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking and so again it is important for the Colts to stay with the Bills as long as possible. Philip Rivers will want to avoid having to throw too many times into the Buffalo Secondary, which has improved down the stretch compared with their overall season form.

Throwing the ball could be a potential problem for the Colts, but they will also have serious concerns about defending the pass against Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills have seen Josh Allen come on leaps and bounds in 2020 despite a mini-slump during the course of the season, and they have also surrounded the Quarter Back with some huge talents that have helped in the development of the young player.

Josh Allen has found a chemistry with Stefon Diggs, but the likes of John Brown, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis have all shown they can step up for the Bills in the passing game too. Injuries have slowed the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch and the Secondary have given up over 300 yards per game through the air in their last three games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Houston.

I have no doubt that Josh Allen is able to maintain that kind of number against this Secondary as he has helped the Bills average over 350 yards per game through the air down the stretch. Buffalo have not been afraid to come out and throw the ball all over the field to put the pressure on their opponents and I think it will be difficult for the Colts to slow them down, especially with the Buffalo Offensive Line likely able to give Allen some time.

The Colts have been able to bring the pass rush pressure, but Buffalo will feel their Offensive Line can keep the pocket clean enough. Add in Josh Allen's ability to scramble around and move the ball with his legs and I do think Buffalo will be confident the passing lanes will open up for them on the Offensive side of the ball.

In recent games Buffalo also found a groove when it came to running the ball, but the Colts Defensive Line have been stout up front. The Quarter Back's ability to reach First Down markers with his legs may make it a touch more difficult for Indianapolis on the ground, while any Secondary struggles will also open the running lanes as players are sent into coverage to slow the Bills down through the air.

I've really liked the Indianapolis Colts this season and how they have been built, but I do think there have been some signs that they have been worn down over a long season. Philip Rivers was once a top Quarter Back, but I am not sure he will be able to compete in a shoot out with the younger and fresher Josh Allen who looks to have found a really good rhythm at Quarter Back.

It might be tense at times, which is down to the long absence of winning a PlayOff Game, but I think Buffalo will find the big plays in the passing game which will force Indianapolis to take to the air to keep up. Ultimately I am not sure Rivers can do that at this stage of his career and I like the Buffalo Bills to continue their strong covering ability, the mark of a very good team.

Buffalo are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite and they have covered the spread in their last eight games down the stretch. I do have to admit I really admire Frank Reich and the Head Coach does have the Colts playing competitively, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog.

The Colts are not used to being the underdog and so they may use that as motivation to 'show their critics' but I think there is too much Buffalo Offensive firepower which leads to a win by a Touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In Week 17 the Los Angeles Rams were able to end the season for one of their NFC West rivals and they will be looking to do the same on Super Wild Card Weekend when travelling to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams shared out a win apiece in the regular season, but the Seahawks have got home field advantage having ended the year with the Number 3 Seed and with positive injury news meaning they could be going into the post-season at full strength.

There was also better news for the Los Angeles Rams this week as it looks like Jared Goff is on course to return at Quarter Back for the road team. The Rams have reached the Super Bowl with Goff at Quarter Back before and his return means John Wolford will return to a backup role for Los Angeles despite leading the win over the Cardinals in Week 17.

John Wolford was massively helped by the Defensive unit, while Jared Goff will likely need the same level of support as the Rams have struggled Offensively for some weeks. The Quarter Back will be making his return against the Seattle Seahawks who he was facing when he fractured his thumb, but I do think the Los Angeles Rams will be comfortable with their chances in the PlayOffs.

The Rams had lost two in a row before finishing the regular season with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a feeling that they can have considerably more Offensive success against this Seattle Defense than they did when they met last month. On that occasion Los Angeles were only able to muster up 9 points, but both teams struggled to move the ball with consistency so there is going to be some pressure on Jared Goff if he does get rewarded with the start.

Most will be interested to see who Sean McVay picks as his starting Quarter Back, but there are a couple of key performers who need to be cleared on this side of the ball. Andrew Whitworth is hoping to be able to play on the Los Angeles Offensive Line and Jamal Adams is adamant he will play for the Seattle Seahawks at Safety and both players are very important for their respective teams.

An improvement in the Seattle Defensive Line's performances against the run have been critical for the Seahawks producing four wins in a row to end the season and clinch the NFC West Division. It has come at an important time as the Seahawks Offense has not really found the groove they had earlier this season and it will be up to Seattle to try and win at the line of scrimmage to take control of this game.

You know Sean McVay will look for ways to get the Rams moving even if the run is stopped and that may be by employing short passes, screens or Wide Receiver screens to try and stay in front of the sticks and give Jared Goff the best chance for success. John Wolford showed off his ability to run the ball last week in the win over the Cardinals and if he starts at Quarter Back it may give the Rams Offense another crease, but I do think Los Angeles will struggle for consistency running the ball as they did when the teams met in this Stadium last month.

The more important question for the Rams has to be whether they can get more from the passing game which was not able to expose the holes that have opened up in the Seattle Secondary all season. There have been some obvious signs of improvement from the Seahawks who tend to be a 'bend, don't break' Defensive unit, but even then you would expect any Quarter Back to have more success than the Rams enjoyed against Seattle in their most recent meeting.

It will be interesting to see if Whitworth is up to speed on the Offensive Line because he will be facing a Seattle pass rush which has come alive in recent weeks. They will be looking to force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball much more quickly than they would like and it will also aid the Secondary in being able to make a few stops in this one.

Stopping the run will be something the Seahawks will feel they can do, but I really think the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is the best of the Lines along the trenches. In recent games Seattle have been able to get Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde going, while Russell Wilson is capable as a runner too, but the Seahawks did not have much success on the ground against the Rams in their last meeting and there is little to suggest they will have a lot more in this one.

However, one positive is that the Seahawks Offensive Line looks like it could be as healthy as it has been in several weeks and that may be good news for Russell Wilson. After opening up with massive MVP credentials, Wilson has come off the boil as his protection has weakened and the game plan has perhaps been adjusted to establish the ground game.

Russell Wilson will need all the protection he can get against this Rams Defensive Line led by Aaron Donald and it is the extended time that may see him find a way to exploit the Rams Secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing at an incredibly high level and will feel he can lock down DK Metcalf again barring the Seahawks moving the big Receiver to different spots in the field where Ramsey may not follow, but Tyler Lockett is a big threat for Seattle.

The Quarter Back situation definitely feels like it is giving the Seahawks and edge and you can't discount a team that has won every home PlayOff Game under Pete Carroll. If Jared Goff was at 100% I do think the Rams could cause problems, but Seattle look to be playing with confidence and momentum and that can roll over into this game.

The home team has won the last five games between these Divisional rivals and Seattle won by 11 points when hosting the Rams last month.

Los Angeles are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Seattle and I do think the Seahawks will be able to get one or two big plays from Russell Wilson which helps them win this game and cover the number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team Pick: Most fans have been pretty down on the NFC East this season and there were plenty out there making it clear that winning the Number 5 Seed in the NFC was effectively going to mean an easy win on Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked that up and they are considered big favourites to beat the Washington Football Team who might have been thankful to Doug Pederson in securing the NFC East Division title in Week 17.

Washington had to win at Philadelphia to win the Division, but the game was very, very competitive going into the Fourth Quarter before Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson decided he would put in what is effectively a third string Quarter Back. Unsurprisingly things went pear shaped for the Eagles from there and the decision drew the ire of the New York Giants who missed out on a PlayOff spot.

Ron Rivera won't care how his team got into the PlayOffs and the Head Coach has shown he can motivate teams to play above their level in one off games before. His 7 win Carolina Panthers team won the NFC South in the 2014 NFL season and that team were able to upset the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals at home in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

There are similarities here as his 7 win Washington team face an 11 win Tampa Bay team on Saturday evening, but Ron Rivera will be reminding his players that every team begins at 0-0 in the PlayOffs. A bigger concern for the Head Coach seems to be getting Quarter Back Alex Smith as healthy as possible and Rivera did admit that he would have loved to have been given one of the Sunday slots this Wild Card Weekend to give his veteran player as much time to recover as possible.

Over the course of the season you would think the Quarter Back would be the best chance for Washington to earn the upset, but down the stretch the Buccaneers Defensive Line did begin to struggle when it comes to stopping the run. The overall numbers remained strong, but the Buccaneers have given up 4.4 yards per carry across their last three games and it is only the points being scored by the Tampa Bay Offense which may have forced opponents to have to move away from the run.

The Football Team will be hoping Antonio Gibson is going to be healthier than he looked last week as he remains the premier Running Back on the roster and it will be important for Washington to run the ball. Controlling the clock is important and it may also benefit Alex Smith who should have success throwing against the Tampa Bay Defense.

It is also important to run the ball to help the Washington Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Alex Smith as it could just slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush for long enough to allow him to make some plays. Last week the Eagles were able to get a lot of pressure on Smith throughout the game which has meant the Quarter Back has been nursing some injuries over the week, but the Football Team may feel they can at least have a touch more consistency behind their Offensive unit.

Scoring enough points to be competitive won't be easy for Washington if Tampa Bay continue to play as they have been with Tom Brady leading the way. The suggestion is that Mike Evans will be ready to go having come out of the Week 17 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and that means Brady will have some talented Receivers to make plays for him.

On the face of things you would think the Buccaneers are able to have considerable success throwing the ball, but the Washington pass Defense has been the strength of the team and the reason they have made the PlayOffs. Much of that is down to the front four who have some extremely talented youngsters leading the way and it will be the pressure on Tom Brady which will be key to slowing down the Buccaneers.

In the past we have seen Tom Brady rattled by teams who can get an intense about of pass rush player with limited numbers rushing him and that is something that fits this Washington Defensive Line to a tee. Chase Young is the headline name, but there is talent across the line and I do think they will be able to at least give the Football Team a chance of the upset.

A lot will come down to that battle as any time being given to Brady will result in his classy Receivers finding spaces to exploit. It is also hard to really believe in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette can establish the run to the point where they slow down the Football Team pass rush and I do think this Defensive Line will be able to keep this game close.

While Tampa Bay have been strong against the spread in the last few weeks, Washington have to be respected having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the underdog.

The Buccaneers are the more likely winners as I am not entirely sure that Washington can score enough points to secure the upset, but Tom Brady is 0-4 against the spread in late primetime slots this season. This is the same slot the Buccaneers have on Saturday night and in the past it is those teams with fearsome Defensive Lines that have been able to give Brady some trouble and I will look for Washington to remain within the number set.

I will expect the Football Team to be highly motivated by the oddsmakers line for this game and that disrespect coupled with their Head Coach's experience of overcoming the odds in the Wild Card Round is important here. Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers actually beat Bruce Arians that season in the Wild Card Round too and I think Rivera may get the better of Arians when it comes to this spread too.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Pick: A five game winning run has helped turn the Baltimore Ravens season around after it looked like they may have missed out on a PlayOff spot at 6-5. There is a confidence that this team is peaking at the right time and they have a chance to earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss to the Tennessee Titans at home last year.

The Titans are back in the post-season, but this time they go in as the AFC South Division Winners and that means they will be hosting at least one PlayOff Game. Last year the Titans managed to reach the AFC Championship Game and led against eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City, while road wins at New England and Baltimore will mean this Titans team has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

What they don't have is a very good Defensive unit and I do think that has to be a major concern for Tennessee entering the PlayOffs this season. You can't expect to beat some of the best teams in the NFL with a team who literally can't stop anyone on the other side of the ball, but the Titans have managed to somehow win 11 games including three of their last four to secure the AFC South.

I do think there is a chance for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to move the ball with some consistency in this big PlayOff Game and I would be disappointed if the Quarter Back is not able to have a big outing. There is some pressure on Jackson which he will acknowledge himself and that is down to losing both PlayOff Games that he has started for the Baltimore Ravens including the upset defeat to Tennessee as a double digit favourite last season.

However this game looks like a good chance for Jackson to have success both with his legs and with his arm- the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams running through them throughout the season, while the Secondary has been exposed by injuries and very little pass rush pressure generated up front.

Lamar Jackson is able to run the ball himself, but he will be well supported by JK Dobbins who has taken over as the main Running Back for the Baltimore Ravens. Both should be able to keep the Ravens in front of the chains and earn some big gains on the ground and that should open the door for the Quarter Back to hit his Receivers Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown down the field for some big plays.

The Ravens should have a very good balance Offensively which makes them very dangerous, but this should be anything but a one-sided game. While Baltimore will expect to dominate behind their Offensive Line, the Titans will also believe they have an Offensive Line which is going to be able to rip open some huge holes for what many may consider to be the best Running Back in the NFL.

Everyone knows that the Titans want to establish Derrick Henry early and often, but that has not made it any easier to stop a Back who has put up over 2000 yards on the ground this season. I do wonder if that will catch up with him as we enter the PlayOffs, but Henry smashed the Houston Texans in Week 17 and looks to be getting stronger as Defensive Lines begin to get banged up down the stretch.

Derrick Henry is the key and he will be keen to get after the Baltimore Defensive Line which has allowed teams to produce 5 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Those have been against weak teams, but the Titans are anything but a weak Offense and I do think Henry will open things up for Ryan Tannehill.

The Quarter Back is capable of making plays with his legs when teams focus in on Derrick Henry, but the big question for Ryan Tannehill is whether he can make enough plays with his arm to keep the Ravens from crowding the line of scrimmage. Ryan Tannehill has really played well for the Titans since taking over as the starting Quarter Back, and I am not going to put a lot of stock into the recent Baltimore performances when it comes to defending the pass.

Baltimore have simply not played very good Offenses as they have put the wins together and I do think the likes of AJ Brown and Corey Davis can win battles on the outside to give Ryan Tannehill options in the passing game. The Ravens may have better balance Offensively, but the Titans are likely going to feel pretty good about the way they can move the ball and they have to be motivating themselves with feelings that people still don't believe in them.

Over the last twelve months they have upset the Ravens twice on the road, yet here the Titans are set as the home underdog and a relatively big one too. The line doesn't make much sense to me if I am being honest, and I was expecting this to perhaps be a pick 'em with the feeling that Baltimore are going to be a team that is publicly backed.

In reality I do think the Titans have matched up well with the Ravens and they can perhaps win this game outright, but I will look to take the points on offer.

You may have to take a shorter price to go through the key number 3, but I think that would be very important with this game likely to end with a Field Goal win either way.

There are some strong trends favouring the Baltimore Ravens, but I do think Mike Vrabel will get the very best out of the Titans with the 'no one believes in us' line likely to have been used over and over this past week. The Titans look to be underrated here and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Teams that won at least 10 games missed out on the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket, but the 8-8 Chicago Bears are one of two teams without a winning record that are playing on the NFC side. They held their own destiny in their hands in Week 17, but the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers meant the Bears were thankful to the Los Angeles Rams who beat the Arizona Cardinals.

That might mean the Bears can enter the post-season with a 'nothing to lose' attitude as all teams begin at 0-0, but they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to progress any further.

And while the majority of players may feel it is a bonus to be playing in the PlayOffs after a poor stretch in the middle of the regular season, the likes of Head Coach Matt Nagy and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky have to show they are capable of taking the Bears forward in the months ahead. I do think the PlayOff spot means the Head Coach will remain in charge, but Trubisky's position at Quarter Back remains unsure and an early loss in the PlayOffs coupled with the blow out defeat in Week 17 to the Packers will have many believing the Bears should look for a new signal caller.

This does feel a very difficult match up for Trubisky with the New Orleans Saints Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level and I think it may be one that underlines the belief that the Bears need to look elsewhere when it comes to the Quarter Back position. During a strong end to the season Mitchell Trubisky has been able to lean on the Chicago Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes for David Montgomery, but the Saints Defensive Line have been capable up front and that will mean the pressure is all on Trubisky.

He struggled against the Green Bay Secondary which is a strong one, but Mitchell Trubisky can't hope to have a lot more success against this Saints Secondary which is talented. They will be looking for the pass rush pressure to get around Trubisky and force him into some poor decisions, but Chicago have to hope their Receivers can stand up for their beleaguered Quarter Back and at least give him a chance to make some plays.

While the game is close the Bears will be able to run the ball and try and control the clock, but things change dramatically if New Orleans are able to move a couple of scores ahead. The last couple of weeks has seen Drew Brees improving as he continues his recovery from a rib injury, but he will also be boosted by some key returns this week.

Alvin Kamara has been taken off the Covid-19 list and he should be available with the entire Running Back corps who missed out in Week 17, while the passing game will benefit from the return of Michael Thomas who has had an injury hit season. In Thomas' absence, New Orleans have found a couple of other Receivers to make plays for Drew Brees and I think the addition of their top Wide Receiver will make the Saints very dangerous.

Holes up front on the Chicago Defensive Line have allowed teams to establish the run against them and I do think Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be able to have strong performances running the ball. The Saints Offensive Line have been very strong both when it comes to run blocking and pass protection so the feeling is that the Saints will be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than the Chicago Bears.

As strong as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit has been, there is an opportunity to attack the Secondary and Drew Brees still looks to have enough to be successful in this game.

I do have to be concerned with the way the Saints have seen their recent seasons ended in the PlayOffs with upsets and some miracle plays going against them. That make the number look very big on the spread on Super Wild Card Weekend, but the Saints looks considerably stronger with the likes of Kamara and Thomas back, while the Chicago Bears have been fortunate to reach the PlayOffs.

The Saints are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the favourite and double digit favourites in the PlayOffs are 7-1 against the spread going back to 2011.

We have seen the Chicago Bears struggle to be competitive as a big underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread when given 6 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are also 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games when coming off a double digit loss at home and I think the Saints will have too much Offensive firepower here as they move into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: A number of starters were rested for the Week 17 game at the Cleveland Browns, but the Pittsburgh Steelers almost came close to the upset which may have knocked the Browns out of the PlayOffs. There was every chance that the Steelers were going to have to host Cleveland again in the Super Wild Card Round so the decision to rest key starters looks like being a good one by Mike Tomlin who knows anything less than a place in the Divisional Round will make this a disappointing season.

The Steelers have lost some momentum with four losses in their last five games, but they did finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and will believe having some of their better players resting last week will really benefit them.

That also means Pittsburgh would have kept some of their Offensive plays under wraps for this Wild Card Game, but the same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns who had to dig deep to beat the Steelers last week. It has snapped a long wait to return to the PlayOffs for the Browns, but they are considerable underdogs this week.

It has been a difficult week for the Cleveland Browns who will be without their Head Coach and a number of other players through positive Covid-19 tests. Olivier Vernon suffered an injury which means his season is over and the Browns are going to be challenged by this Steelers team who have had a number of their own players return with the additional time to recover.

Joe Haden will be missing in the Secondary, but the Browns will be looking to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than first time PlayOff Quarter Back Baker Mayfield. Both Chubb and Hunt have played well behind a powerful Cleveland Offensive Line and they should have some success establishing the run against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line which has given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season.

Teams have had to focus on establishing the run to loosen up the Pittsburgh pass Defense, but that has been difficult all season. There is a considerable pass rush the Steelers are able to generate and even the injury to Bud Dupree has not slowed down the pressure up front, and it could be hard for Cleveland to keep Baker Mayfield upright if he needs to move the chains from third and long spots.

As long as the game is close the Browns will feel good about their chances of moving the ball, but they won't be looking for Baker Mayfield to have to put the game on his shoulders. The Quarter Back has been inconsistent behind the Offensive Line and Mayfield has shown some inaccuracy which could be a real problem against this strong Pittsburgh Secondary.

Much seems to depend on how competitive the Browns can keep the game, but I do think the rest will help Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offensive unit to get back on track. Earlier this season we saw the veteran Quarter Back playing at a very good level and I do think he will have benefited from having two weeks between games having not had a Bye Week during the course of the regular season.

There are some talented Receivers that the Steelers can look to and the return of Eric Ebron is another huge boost for the entire Offense. Injuries and positive tests look to have hurt the Cleveland Secondary and I do think Roethlisberger is going to have a strong outing which can help take the game away from the Browns.

Even Mason Rudolph was able to have some success against Cleveland last week and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line looks strong and capable of giving Big Ben as much time as he needs. With the Receivers looking like they have rediscovered a way of holding onto the ball rather than having the drops that were blighting them a few weeks ago, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball through the air with consistency and strong success.

For much of the season the Steelers have leant on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back and that is because Pittsburgh have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked. The Steelers Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for James Connor or Benny Snell, and I think they are unlikely to get much joy from the Cleveland Defensive Line.

With that in mind I think we will see Pittsburgh looking to throw the ball around and I do think the conditions will allow Roethlisberger to do that.

I like the Steelers to win and cover this final Wild Card Game and that is largely because I feel they are going to have too much Offensive power for the Browns to stay with them. Baker Mayfield is a first time PlayOff Quarter Back and those players have tended to struggle in their debut start in the post-season, while the Browns have a poor 1-4-1 record against the spread in their last six games at Heinz Field.

The Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine at home, while the Browns have an awful record on the road and as an underdog. Cleveland have some important players missing and I think Pittsburgh look healthier at this stage of the season which will give them the edge and the ability to put up enough points to cover the mark.

Cleveland struggled when playing against their AFC North rivals in the regular season and their poor record in Pittsburgh is likely to be extended here.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 9-10)

The calendar has slowed down for teams in January despite the hectic FA Cup Third Round being played last weekend and most now have a few days to get their bearings right before getting back into League action.

For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.

Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.

Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.


Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.

Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.

That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.

A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.

Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.

The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.

It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.

I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.

It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.

In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.

This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)

NFL Wild Card Round Play Off Picks 2016 (January 9-10)

It is hard to imagine that a seventeen week regular season in the NFL has whizzed past us, but that is certainly the case as we have reached the Play Offs.

There are just twelve teams left that will fight it out to become the final two to compete in the Super Bowl which is played next month. On current form, I think the NFC West is likely going to provide the NFC representative with both the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks looking the teams to beat, especially with the way the Seeding has come out.

In fact I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is a repeat of Week 17 with the Seahawks visiting the Cardinals, but this time for the NFC Championship Game.

The AFC picture looks a little more scrambled, but I think I am perhaps leaning towards the New England Patriots as the team that can get back to the Super Bowl to defend the trophy they won last season. The Patriots are getting healthier Offensively and I think there is a real chance they will host the AFC Championship Game with the Denver Broncos looking a vulnerable Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Of course this weekend will clear the picture up somewhat with four of the twelve teams eliminated and I am looking forward to the Play Offs which are some of the best games you will see in any sporting environment.


Saturday 9th January
The first two Play Off games are both coming from the AFC side of things and both will be played on Saturday.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans Pick: Two of the hottest teams in the NFL come into the first game of the Play Offs knowing a streak will come to an end and one of their seasons will be over. The Houston Texans were not expected to come through the AFC South, but they took advantage of the injuries suffered by the Indianapolis Colts to win that Division and have the opportunity to host this Wild Card game.

Their three game winning run to end the season and seven wins from their last nine are nothing compared with the Kansas City Chiefs who looked down and out at 1-5. However, they won their last ten games to end the season at 11-5 and take away the Number 5 Seed in the AFC and also make them the favourites to win this game.

The public seem to think it is simply printing money to back the Kansas City Chiefs in this game and Vegas is reporting huge amount of bets focusing on the Chiefs covering the spread. However, the oddsmakers have removed to move this spread above the key number it opened with in fear of getting the 'wise guys' backing the Texans and you can understand the thinking.

One of the key indicators I look to in games is whether the yardage battle is being won consistently, regardless of the final score. That hasn't been the case for Kansas City who have been outgained in four of their last six games, while the Houston Texans have actually earned more yards than their opponents in eight of their last nine games.

That is partly down to the big improvements the Houston Defensive unit have made in recent games and JJ Watt is now back to his full capabilities with the cast off his hand. Watt was dominant for much of the season, but his supporting cast is now helping and they have been particularly strong against the run which is key to stopping the Kansas City Offense from picking up speed.

Even without Jamaal Charles, Kansas City have found a way to run the ball effectively which is a key to keeping the Offense in third and manageable spots to keep the chains moving. However, the Texans have allowed just 2.5 yards per carry in their last three games and should be able to limit the damage the Chiefs can do on the ground and force the pressure onto Alex Smith and the passing game.

Smith is a mobile Quarter Back that can pick up yards with his legs so Houston have to be aware of that, but his passing is very much looking for the short routes that his Receivers can potentially turn into big gains. However, Smith needs the Offense to be in third and manageable if they are going to move the chains, especially with the pressure that Houston can get from their pass rush which should surround the Quarter Back.

That pressure has seen the Secondary take advantage by earning some turnovers and I really think the Texans are playing well enough Defensively to give the Chiefs plenty of problems when it comes to moving the chains.

Brian Hoyer is making his first start in the post-season for Houston which has to be a concern, but he has plenty of experience of being around teams that reach the Play Offs. That should help Hoyer who is also going to be reliant on his running game to help the team move the chains consistently.

The Kansas City Secondary has played well and they have a ball-hawking crew that can turn the ball over, which will also make it tough for DeAndre Hopkins to find separation. However Hoyer will throw the ball up for Hopkins who has shown he can make the tough catches through the course of the season, although Houston know the key to the game is making sure they are running the ball effectively.

There is a real chance for the Texans to establish the run because the Chiefs have struggled in recent games in that regards. In fact Kansas City are allowing 5.2 yards per carry in their last three games which haven't come against recognised Running Backs and so a Houston team missing Arian Foster will feel they can do the same.

It will ensure that Hoyer is in a position to make quick throws to keep the chains moving and prevent a fierce pass rush from Kansas City taking the Quarter Back out of his rhythm. Duante Brown is out at Left Tackle meaning Houston have to find a way to get the running game over else Hoyer is being protected by an inexperienced player on his blind side which will potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for Kansas City to work with.

I like the Texans here with the points as I think they are playing well enough Defensively to keep this close. I also think they can establish the run Offensively which is going to be a key for Brian Hoyer and the Texans Offense, but some may point out the Chiefs' Week 1 win here.

However, teams that won a regular season game against a non-Divisional opponent are just 14-29-1 against the spread in the Play Off game when playing in the same venue as the regular season game over the last fifteen years. Also you can't ignore the trend that a team that has won seven or more straight going into the Play Offs are 0-7 against the spread in their first Play Off game.

I haven't really bought into the Kansas City hype through the season and I am not willing to start here with Houston looking like a team that can match up well with them. They might have lost by seven at home in Week 1, but I can see Houston potentially winning this outright, but I will take the points on offer.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There is no love lost between two Divisional rivals from the AFC North and this looks like it is potentially the best Wild Card game of the weekend. Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers would have hoped to have come in healthier than they are, but that won't matter when the game kicks off and the teams take to the field.

The bragging rights of the next few months are on the line, but I also think both teams have genuine belief they are good enough to win it all this season.

Cincinnati were hoping that Andy Dalton would recover in time to take his place at Quarter Back for the Bengals, but that is not the case. AJ McCarron will be the Quarter Back for the Bengals and he has plenty of experience having played in National Championship games, and won them, for the Alabama Crimson Tide, while he will also be more prepared than when he had to come in as relief for Cincinnati in the second of the games with Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are no less banged up as Le'Veon Bell went down earlier in the season, ironically in the first game against Cincinnati. DeAngelo Williams had really been playing well in relief at Running Back, but he too has been ruled out for the game which is a big blow to the Pittsburgh Offense.

The injuries in the two Divisional games played against one another has increased some of the dislike between the teams. Both Head Coaches will be looking for calm from their players to prevent anything really getting too emotional, but it is hard to take that away from a game where the winner moves on and the loser looks back on what might have been.

McCarron might have experience from his College days with the Crimson Tide, but a first Play Off game is always a difficult test for a player. He will be under some pressure, but he has seen the Pittsburgh Defense before and that will certainly help the Quarter Back.

A lot of this game is going to be on his shoulders as the new look Steel Curtain has played well through the season. It is hard to imagine Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard ripping off some big gains on the ground against a Defensive Line giving up just 3.8 yards per carry and that will mean McCarron has to make some big plays with his arm.

I expect he will be able to do that because the Pittsburgh Secondary has been terrible for long periods and they won't have a lot of answers for AJ Green, Muhammed Sanu and Marvis Jones. However, one big difference between Dalton and McCarron at Quarter Back is the speed of the decision making which has suddenly seen McCarron take a lot of Sacks.

That is another area Pittsburgh have excelled and I think they will get in the face of McCarron and hope to rattle the inexperienced McCarron into making a couple of key mistakes.

A few weeks ago I would have said the Pittsburgh Offense has too many weapons for the Bengals to cope with, but the injuries at Running Back have changed that somewhat. That does mean it will be difficult for Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game to be in anything but third and long at times especially as the Bengals have played the run very effectively themselves.

Big Ben still has Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton in the passing game that are huge threats for Cincinnati to deal with. The Cincinnati Secondary have given up almost 275 passing yards per game in their last three games and that has to be a concern against Roethlisberger and this Pittsburgh passing game, although the road team has to be concerned with the turnovers coming out of Big Ben's arm.

Being in third and long spots without much of a running game will mean Roethlisberger is put under pressure by the Bengals pass rush. That is another concern, but Roethlisberger has encouraged to get more out of his Receivers and has the power to escape trouble and still make big plays downfield.

That difference at Quarter Back is the reason I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will win their second road game at the Bengals this season and move into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs. I can see this being close but the pressure from the Steelers forcing a big mistake from McCarron which makes the difference and I am expecting both teams to put up plenty of points.

Pittsburgh have a 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games at Cincinnati and I think they cover the small spread here.


Sunday 10th January
The NFC takes centre stage on Sunday as the Wild Card Weekend of the Play Offs are completed.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North last weekend but I am not sure they would have wanted the prize of taking on the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs. They do have the benefit of hosting the game, but the Vikings were blown out here by Seattle last month and it is a big task in front of them.

Being at home and no longer playing under the Dome means Minnesota will be playing in some frigid conditions this week, easily the coldest of the weekend. That is going to be a factor with the ball being that much harder to catch for both teams and might just be an equaliser in the contest between two teams where Seattle are much the favoured.

The revenge factor is in play for Minnesota after they were embarrassed in their first loss to Seattle, but they have some factors going in their favour this time. First of the Defensive unit looks to be at full strength and the second is that the Seattle Seahawks are missing both Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls at Running Back in conditions that will be tough to negotiate.

That hasn't had a big affect on the Seattle performances in recent weeks and the huge blow out of the Arizona Cardinals on the road has made them a team no one really wants to run into. It is the reason so many thought the Vikings winning in Green Bay might be detrimental to them, especially as the Seattle Defensive unit have really picked up their play in the second half of the regular season.

Adrian Peterson has to be expected to have more carries this time than he did the first time Minnesota hosted Seattle. The rushing Champion was highly critical of the game plan after that game and will be given more than the eight carries that he received last time, although it also depends on how his back is feeling.

Peterson versus the Seattle rushing Defense is going to be a huge part of this entire game and could determine the winner or loser. While he has helped the Vikings move the chains on the ground, recent games against Chicago, New York Giants and Green Bay won't have prepared Peterson for facing Seattle who have held teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season.

Being left in third and long will be very difficult for Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Offense to get going. The second year Quarter Back has had a difficult time through much of the season being little more than a game manager and that might not cut it against the Legion of Boom. Minnesota haven't been as strong in pass protection as run blocking so Seattle could give Bridgewater some problems when the rush is on and it might be difficult to move the chains with any consistency.

It is almost certainly going to be difficult for Seattle too without their first two Running Backs on the field and with the conditions as they are. I still think the Seahawks can establish the run against Minnesota, but they are weakened without Lynch and Rawls and it might be up to Russell Wilson to make sure he can scramble for a few first downs to keep the pressure off of him.

Russell Wilson has been throwing the ball very effectively in recent games, but a lack of a running game would mean the Offensive Line having season long issues come out. They have struggled to protect Wilson at times and Minnesota have been getting plenty out of their pass rush that has helped their Secondary.

However the ability Wilson has in moving away from pressure and hitting Receivers downfield on the run is hard to ignore and that could be a key to this game. Wilson has made some big plays with his arm in the last few weeks, but it might be a little more difficult with the extreme cold that will be in Minnesota which is a concern for me.

The experience Seattle have at this time of the season lessens those concerns though and I think they can break the trend I have mentioned about winning teams in same venue rematches in the Play Offs against non-Divisional opponents.

Teams that did win as an underdog in Week 17 have a poor covering rate in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs which goes against Minnesota this week. I don't think this match up works too good for the Vikings either and I think the Seahawks will use all of their experience to come through with another win on the road at the Vikings.


Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins Pick: The most intriguing game of Wild Card Weekend is arguably the last one of the Weekend as the Green Bay Packers travel to the Washington Redskins. Not many would have predicted that the Redskins might be the team in form ahead of the Packers come January, but that looks to be the case although it would be a big surprise if either is able to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

You never know at this stage of the season, but this looks like a match up that will determine which of the teams will lose in Arizona in the Divisional Round (assuming Seattle win as I expect them to do in Minnesota).

It has been a really strange season for the Green Bay Packers who started off incredibly hot, but who finished as one of the Wild Card teams after a home loss to Minnesota in Week 17. The Offensive unit have been so out of sync as to what we expect from the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers is yet to be completely concerned despite those issues.

Rodgers has not had the support from his Receivers that he would have liked as they have failed to win their match ups regularly. It says a lot that James Jones has returned to become the 'go to' Receiver since Jordy Nelson went down in pre-season but he is not a top Receiver and has also had his issues earning separation from man to man coverage in the Secondary.

This might be the kind of game the Packers need to get their Offense back in sync though and Rodgers should have a chance to make some big plays if he can get the time in the pocket. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Rodgers in recent games, but David Bakhtiari could potentially be back at Left Tackle which would be huge against the Washington Redskins pass rush who have dominated up front.

If, and it is a big IF at the moment, Aaron Rodgers gets time, the Redskins Secondary is pretty beaten up and his Receivers might finally win their battle. The pass rush might also be slowed if Green Bay can run the ball effectively which looks a definite chance of happening as Washington have allowed 6.1 yards per carry in their last three games.

Wth Rodgers having some difficulties in the passing game, it might be a big surprise to hear that Kirk Cousins is the more 'in form' Quarter Back of the two taking to the field. Cousins has been brilliant for much of the season, but confidence is really high in recent games as the Quarter Back has thrown for over 300 yards per game in the last three.

The challenge does come against a Green Bay Secondary that have played well and have been able to turn the ball over, but Cousins might have more support from the running game than he has had recently. The Packers have really had a hard time stopping the run in recent games and that might see both Alfred Morris and Matt Jones have a chance of establishing the ground game for Washington, something that hasn't happened enough through the course of the season.

Establishing the ground Offense will only make things easier for Cousins who has played extremely well while limiting his own mistakes in recent games. Turnovers could be a key to the game, but Washington have a real chance of not just coming out of the poor NFC East, but also getting into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

However, I like the road underdog here especially as teams in this Wild Card Round who lost as the favourite in Week 17 have a strong covering record. I think the Green Bay Offense will have a chance to finally get on track this week against this Defensive unit, while Washington have been outgained in terms of yardage in four of their last five games but have still gone 4-1 straight up.

Green Bay have not been at their best down the stretch, but I can't remove the Washington home loss to Dallas from my mind. I think the Packers will find a way to get this done and move into the Divisional Round in a close game on the road so will take the points on offer.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)