The calendar has slowed down for teams in January despite the hectic FA Cup Third Round being played last weekend and most now have a few days to get their bearings right before getting back into League action.
For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.
Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.
Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.
Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.
Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.
That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.
A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.
Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.
The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.
It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.
It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.
In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.
This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Showing posts with label Free League Cup Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free League Cup Picks. Show all posts
Tuesday, 9 January 2018
Tuesday, 24 January 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 24-26)
This has been a really tough month for the football picks with penalty misses, open goals, and surprise results all conspiring to go against me. Late goals have tended to go the opposite way to the way I would have wanted and it all has resulted in the coming together of the dark forces of a losing month.
During this week we have a few make up games in the Championship and the first domestic Cup Final in England will be set as the English Football League Cup Semi Final Second Legs are played on Wednesday and Thursday. Don't ask me why the Hull City versus Manchester United Second Leg has been asked to be played on a Thursday when you think the FA Cup Fourth Round will be played at the weekend and then another two rounds of Premier League games will be played in the following week.
Surely it would have made most sense to play that game on a Tuesday, but I guess at least Jose Mourinho's side have managed the Thursday-Sunday schedule well enough already this season. Having a 2-0 lead from the First Leg will only help.
The winner of that tie will already know who they will be facing on Sunday 26th February as Liverpool will be looking to overturn their 0-1 deficit to Southampton on Wednesday.
The FA Cup selections for the weekend should be ready to come out on Thursday evening/Friday morning depending on when I schedule the post to go live, while I am still looking to get out my piece about Manchester United later in the week and hopefully that can be attached to the 'Weekend Football Picks' post.
Brighton v Cardiff City Pick: The suspension for Glenn Murray is a big blow for Brighton, but the home form has been very impressive and they are a fairly strong favourite to see off Cardiff City. You can understand that with the way they have been playing at The Amex Stadium, but Cardiff City have only lost 1 of their last 6 visits to this Stadium.
Recent games have seen Cardiff City put some positive results together which will make them dangerous, but I would be surprised if Brighton can't keep their positive run going.
Backing them to win is a little short when you think Murray is unavailable, and instead I will look for Brighton to become the latest team to score twice at home against Cardiff City. That might sound strange without their striker, but Brighton have found goals in recent home games and Murray has been responsible for 3 of the 11 home goals Brighton have scored in their last 5 games here.
Cardiff City have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games, even though they haven't lost either of their last 3, and Brighton are close to odds against to hit that number.
Reading v Fulham Pick: There have been plenty of goals in recent Reading fixtures as they have shown they can create chances in front of goal, but defensively have looked very poor. That defence will be tested by Fulham who have scored at least once in their last 6 away games in all competitions and they have scored at least twice in 4 of those games.
Reading have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 7 games in all competitions but they have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 League games.
Recent fixtures between Reading and Fulham have also produced goals with the last 7 between these teams seeing at least three goals shared out. The wintery conditions in England shouldn't have a big affect on the playing surface in Reading even if the pitch is harder than usual, but both Reading and Fulham have played their attacking football and should have enough in the final third to create opportunities.
It would be a surprise if both teams didn't score in this one, and the 1-1 scoreline might be the one that prevents this pick coming in, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out on Tuesday evening.
Leeds United v Nottingham Forest Pick: There will be plenty of fans who remember the days when Leeds United versus Nottingham Forest would have been a big game in the top flight of English Football, but those days are many years into the past now. At this moment of time Leeds United look more likely to return to the top flight with Garry Monk helping this squad of players overachieve, while Nottingham Forest fight a relegation battle.
Both clubs have fallen as low as the third tier of English Football since they have played in the Premier League and fans of both clubs will be hoping a brighter future is ahead.
For Nottingham Forest that future won't arrive until new owners can be found to take the club forward and I think they will have a difficult time to contain Leeds United away from home. Leeds United have won 5 in a row at Elland Road and they have kept clean sheets in each game which has given them a chance to win games.
Nottingham Forest have failed to score in their last couple of away games and I think Leeds United will be a little too good for them in this one. Leeds United have not won any of their last 3 against Nottingham Forest at home, but can snap that run here and I will back them to win.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: This is a huge English Football League Cup Semi Final Second Leg as Liverpool look to overturn a 1-0 deficit to Southampton. Many will feel Liverpool can do that having the Second Leg at Anfield and Southampton having struggled away from home which includes League defeats at Everton (3-0) and Burnley (1-0) in recent weeks.
However Liverpool have to be much better defensively than they were in the 2-3 loss to Swansea City on Saturday and much better than in the 1-0 loss at Southampton in the First Leg. The only saving grace for Liverpool fans is that they don't have to overcome a 2-0 or 3-0 deficit with the chances The Saints had created in the First Leg as a flat Liverpool struggled to stay with them.
Night games at Anfield should provide an inspiration for Liverpool who had been unbeaten in 25 games at home in all competitions before the loss to The Swans on Saturday. Joel Matip's return will bolster a defence that has struggled, but they will be dealing with the pace Southampton have in forward positions which makes them dangerous on the counter in this one.
Liverpool have their attacking players back, bar Sadio Mane, and they should cause problems for Southampton too. Jose Fonte has moved on and Virgin Van Dijk is a doubt which means there could be a soft underbelly that Liverpool may be able to expose with the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino and Daniel Sturridge likely to start in this game.
I did think there would be a few goals in the First Leg but poor finishing, mainly from Nathan Redmond, prevented that from happening despite the clear chances that were made. This Second Leg should be an open game as Liverpool chase the goal to get back into the tie and Southampton being more than capable of creating things on the counter with their own forward players against a struggling defence.
I do see a situation where Liverpool are winning 1-0 and Southampton continue to defend deep to try and force extra time and hope to nick something. However Liverpool's style will mean they will continue to push forward and there could be some spaces to exploit late in the game as one of these teams potentially chases a way back into the game.
I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this Second Leg.
Hull City v Manchester United Pick: While a 2-0 scoreline is considered a dangerous one, Manchester United have to feel they have more than a foot into the English Football League Cup Final which will be played next month. The late goal in the First Leg has given them breathing room and Manchester United will now expect Hull City to be a lot more open than they were planning to be in the First Leg.
You can't blame Marco Silva for the tactics as he wanted to keep Hull City in the Semi Final ahead of the Second Leg back at home. For a long period it looked like The Tigers might manage to do that but that second goal means they might have to come out on the front foot a lot earlier than they would have done if only 1-0 down.
Jose Mourinho won't be taking the Second Leg for granted and Manchester United have a winnable FA Cup Fourth Round tie on Sunday which should mean he can play a strong team at The KCOM Stadium. I do expect changes with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Marcus Rashford and Jesse Lingard needing starts, but these players could enjoy some spaces as Hull City have to be a little more proactive in their own attacking play.
Hull City have played very well at home in recent weeks with only 1 loss in 8 games here in all competitions. The fixtures have not been the most taxing in that time and the one team with real quality they faced came away with a 0-3 win when Manchester City visited over the festive period.
Manchester United have played well away from home and have been creating chances and I think they will be too strong for Hull City and able to pick them off when they do come forward. A late goal could see Manchester United win this by a couple of goals as they comfortably move through to the League Cup Final, while Marco Silva will hope for better when visiting Old Trafford in the Premier League next week.
MY PICKS: Brighton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Reading-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Stan James (2 Units)
Leeds United @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.82 Bet365 (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
During this week we have a few make up games in the Championship and the first domestic Cup Final in England will be set as the English Football League Cup Semi Final Second Legs are played on Wednesday and Thursday. Don't ask me why the Hull City versus Manchester United Second Leg has been asked to be played on a Thursday when you think the FA Cup Fourth Round will be played at the weekend and then another two rounds of Premier League games will be played in the following week.
Surely it would have made most sense to play that game on a Tuesday, but I guess at least Jose Mourinho's side have managed the Thursday-Sunday schedule well enough already this season. Having a 2-0 lead from the First Leg will only help.
The winner of that tie will already know who they will be facing on Sunday 26th February as Liverpool will be looking to overturn their 0-1 deficit to Southampton on Wednesday.
The FA Cup selections for the weekend should be ready to come out on Thursday evening/Friday morning depending on when I schedule the post to go live, while I am still looking to get out my piece about Manchester United later in the week and hopefully that can be attached to the 'Weekend Football Picks' post.
Brighton v Cardiff City Pick: The suspension for Glenn Murray is a big blow for Brighton, but the home form has been very impressive and they are a fairly strong favourite to see off Cardiff City. You can understand that with the way they have been playing at The Amex Stadium, but Cardiff City have only lost 1 of their last 6 visits to this Stadium.
Recent games have seen Cardiff City put some positive results together which will make them dangerous, but I would be surprised if Brighton can't keep their positive run going.
Backing them to win is a little short when you think Murray is unavailable, and instead I will look for Brighton to become the latest team to score twice at home against Cardiff City. That might sound strange without their striker, but Brighton have found goals in recent home games and Murray has been responsible for 3 of the 11 home goals Brighton have scored in their last 5 games here.
Cardiff City have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games, even though they haven't lost either of their last 3, and Brighton are close to odds against to hit that number.
Reading v Fulham Pick: There have been plenty of goals in recent Reading fixtures as they have shown they can create chances in front of goal, but defensively have looked very poor. That defence will be tested by Fulham who have scored at least once in their last 6 away games in all competitions and they have scored at least twice in 4 of those games.
Reading have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 7 games in all competitions but they have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 League games.
Recent fixtures between Reading and Fulham have also produced goals with the last 7 between these teams seeing at least three goals shared out. The wintery conditions in England shouldn't have a big affect on the playing surface in Reading even if the pitch is harder than usual, but both Reading and Fulham have played their attacking football and should have enough in the final third to create opportunities.
It would be a surprise if both teams didn't score in this one, and the 1-1 scoreline might be the one that prevents this pick coming in, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out on Tuesday evening.
Leeds United v Nottingham Forest Pick: There will be plenty of fans who remember the days when Leeds United versus Nottingham Forest would have been a big game in the top flight of English Football, but those days are many years into the past now. At this moment of time Leeds United look more likely to return to the top flight with Garry Monk helping this squad of players overachieve, while Nottingham Forest fight a relegation battle.
Both clubs have fallen as low as the third tier of English Football since they have played in the Premier League and fans of both clubs will be hoping a brighter future is ahead.
For Nottingham Forest that future won't arrive until new owners can be found to take the club forward and I think they will have a difficult time to contain Leeds United away from home. Leeds United have won 5 in a row at Elland Road and they have kept clean sheets in each game which has given them a chance to win games.
Nottingham Forest have failed to score in their last couple of away games and I think Leeds United will be a little too good for them in this one. Leeds United have not won any of their last 3 against Nottingham Forest at home, but can snap that run here and I will back them to win.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: This is a huge English Football League Cup Semi Final Second Leg as Liverpool look to overturn a 1-0 deficit to Southampton. Many will feel Liverpool can do that having the Second Leg at Anfield and Southampton having struggled away from home which includes League defeats at Everton (3-0) and Burnley (1-0) in recent weeks.
However Liverpool have to be much better defensively than they were in the 2-3 loss to Swansea City on Saturday and much better than in the 1-0 loss at Southampton in the First Leg. The only saving grace for Liverpool fans is that they don't have to overcome a 2-0 or 3-0 deficit with the chances The Saints had created in the First Leg as a flat Liverpool struggled to stay with them.
Night games at Anfield should provide an inspiration for Liverpool who had been unbeaten in 25 games at home in all competitions before the loss to The Swans on Saturday. Joel Matip's return will bolster a defence that has struggled, but they will be dealing with the pace Southampton have in forward positions which makes them dangerous on the counter in this one.
Liverpool have their attacking players back, bar Sadio Mane, and they should cause problems for Southampton too. Jose Fonte has moved on and Virgin Van Dijk is a doubt which means there could be a soft underbelly that Liverpool may be able to expose with the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino and Daniel Sturridge likely to start in this game.
I did think there would be a few goals in the First Leg but poor finishing, mainly from Nathan Redmond, prevented that from happening despite the clear chances that were made. This Second Leg should be an open game as Liverpool chase the goal to get back into the tie and Southampton being more than capable of creating things on the counter with their own forward players against a struggling defence.
I do see a situation where Liverpool are winning 1-0 and Southampton continue to defend deep to try and force extra time and hope to nick something. However Liverpool's style will mean they will continue to push forward and there could be some spaces to exploit late in the game as one of these teams potentially chases a way back into the game.
I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this Second Leg.
Hull City v Manchester United Pick: While a 2-0 scoreline is considered a dangerous one, Manchester United have to feel they have more than a foot into the English Football League Cup Final which will be played next month. The late goal in the First Leg has given them breathing room and Manchester United will now expect Hull City to be a lot more open than they were planning to be in the First Leg.
You can't blame Marco Silva for the tactics as he wanted to keep Hull City in the Semi Final ahead of the Second Leg back at home. For a long period it looked like The Tigers might manage to do that but that second goal means they might have to come out on the front foot a lot earlier than they would have done if only 1-0 down.
Jose Mourinho won't be taking the Second Leg for granted and Manchester United have a winnable FA Cup Fourth Round tie on Sunday which should mean he can play a strong team at The KCOM Stadium. I do expect changes with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Marcus Rashford and Jesse Lingard needing starts, but these players could enjoy some spaces as Hull City have to be a little more proactive in their own attacking play.
Hull City have played very well at home in recent weeks with only 1 loss in 8 games here in all competitions. The fixtures have not been the most taxing in that time and the one team with real quality they faced came away with a 0-3 win when Manchester City visited over the festive period.
Manchester United have played well away from home and have been creating chances and I think they will be too strong for Hull City and able to pick them off when they do come forward. A late goal could see Manchester United win this by a couple of goals as they comfortably move through to the League Cup Final, while Marco Silva will hope for better when visiting Old Trafford in the Premier League next week.
MY PICKS: Brighton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Reading-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Stan James (2 Units)
Leeds United @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.82 Bet365 (2 Units)
January Update: 19-33-1, - 28.86 Units (108 Units Staked, - 26.72% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 10 January 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 10-11)
January has opened very tough for the picks but this is a quieter week for the teams who've just come off a really busy December and early part of this month.
It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.
However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.
Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.
None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.
Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.
Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.
This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.
Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.
A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.
Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.
The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.
However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.
Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.
None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.
Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.
Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.
This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.
Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.
A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.
Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.
The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
January Update: 6-13, - 13.50 Units (38 Units Staked, - 35.53% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 25 October 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (October 25-26)
It has been a difficult couple of days being a Manchester United fan and reading all the negative stories coming out of Old Trafford. I have no doubt who the player handing out the information to the press is as he has been up to this kind of thing for some time.
Jose Mourinho has already suggested that there will be some players who need to be moved on, including the mole, and I think the manager needs to be given time to get things right. I would love to see Henrikh Mkhitaryan get a run in the team with the pace and creativity he will bring in the final third and I don't want to see the likes of Marcus Rashford running himself into the ground tracking defenders and taking away the energy that needs to be used in a more positive manner.
This is a big moment in the season for Manchester United who don't really want the added pressure of losing to Manchester City again as they get set to do battle in the English Football League Cup during the week. Mourinho has identified the run of games coming up as a time where Manchester United need to pick up some momentum and start putting up the points to get closer to the top teams in the Premier League and now is the time to produce.
Burnley, Swansea City, Arsenal, West Ham United, Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace and West Brom are to come for Manchester United in the Premier League before Christmas. I might have big expectations, but I think the squad and the money invested in the squad should see Manchester United pick up 20/24 points available and that should put the side in a good position with games against Middlesbrough and Sunderland to round out the year.
Mourinho has said we've had a tough run over the last week, but he admitted Manchester United need to start winning games and that run gives them a chance to do that.
This midweek has been reserved for the English Football League Cup Fourth Round and so you have to keep an eye out on team news with the big clubs likely to rest players. October has been a difficult month for my picks but things could have been worse and the last few days will hopefully be a lot more productive.
Arsenal v Reading Pick: The 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the English Football League Cup Third Round with a much changed team shows that Arsenal have the depth to rest players and win this Fourth Round tie at home. Three goals in the last half hour helped Arsenal put Nottingham Forest away, but it might be more difficult against this Reading team who should come in with more confidence.
There are a couple of heavy defeats that Reading have suffered which might be a concern if Arsenal do produce the kind of level they can. However having the second string players out there does give Reading a chance and they have shown they can score goals on their travels.
Jaap Stam does want his Reading team to play with plenty of possession which can help them remain more compact defensively. That style might fit well for Arsenal though and it is no surprise the home team are such big favourites.
I personally think Reading can make this more of a game than the layers and they are getting a fairly healthy start considering it isn't too far fetched to think the Arsenal reserves don't click as well as they did against Nottingham Forest. I have to think Arsene Wenger will rest most of the big names having blamed fatigue for the draw with Middlesbrough and getting an almost two goal start for the away team looks too generous.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Second guessing the kind of line ups that managers will pick in the English Football League Cup has been a challenge over the years. I can guarantee that I would not have picked Jurgen Klopp playing the kind of line ups he has so far in the competition and Liverpool have to be one of the favourites to win this competition considering their recent success in the League Cup.
It would be a surprise if Klopp changes his policy now as Liverpool don't play again until Saturday afternoon although there are a couple of changes he is likely to make. I do think it is more difficult to imagine Tottenham Hotspur having their usual starting line up taking part considering the extra football they have played with the Champions League commitments they have.
Over the last couple of seasons Mauricio Pochettino have played strong teams in the English Football League Cup but I do think he will make more changes than Liverpool in this one. There is some depth to this Tottenham Hotspur squad, but the priority has to be to start winning again in the Premier League when they host Leicester City this weekend.
That gives Liverpool the edge in my opinion and I think being at home just puts that lean towards them a little further. Both games between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with Klopp and Pochettino in charge have been tight games, but I think this one is potentially a little more open.
Ultimately I think Liverpool will come through this Fourth Round tie with a slightly stronger line up in this one helping them past a tough opponent. I will back Liverpool to make it back to back wins at Anfield since the goalless draw with Manchester United.
Southampton v Sunderland Pick: The English Football League Cup might be a distraction from the Premier League problems at Sunderland, but David Moyes is so desperate for a result in the League that the Cup might be a hindrance this week. He admitted his players gave their all in the game at West Ham United on Saturday only to be undone by an injury time goal from Winston Reid and Moyes wants to give those players a rest.
There isn't the depth in squad at Sunderland as there are at some of the top clubs in the Premier League and we might have a young line up taking to the field on Wednesday.
I expect Southampton will make some changes to their line up too after a hard fought 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Sunday. Claude Puel's team have had a really good couple of months as the players have bought into his thinking and Southampton have produced a number of very good results in that time.
Puel is balancing three competitions at the moment and that means Southampton have been asked to mix up their starting line ups. He will make changes, but had a relatively strong team out for the home win over Crystal Palace in the last Round and I think they will have the more experienced team taking to the field for this fixture.
With an extra day before Southampton are next due out compared with Sunderland who have the early Saturday game I do think the home team will be too strong. They haven't had too many wins in home games against Sunderland in recent outings including a 1-1 draw earlier this season, but I think Southampton can use their more experienced squad to good effect and I will back them to win by a couple of goals.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: The layers are expecting goals when these two big London rivals face each other in the English Football League Cup Fourth Round, but I think it could be a tighter Cup contest than that.
Slaven Bilic and Antonio Conte have faced some criticism in recent weeks, but both have gone back to basics by making their teams harder to beat. Chelsea have earned three clean sheets in a row and West Ham United have had back to back clean sheets and I can see both managers making sure they are defensively sound in this one too.
There will be changes made to the starting elevens which might make the defensive shape they have shown look a little out of whack and the Cup situation means an early goal would open up this game. However I think neither team will want to give too much away early on and West Ham United in particularly have seen their attacking side blunted a little bit by the need to be more secure at the back.
Games between them have produced goals when they have met and 4 of the last 5 at Upton Park did end with at least three shared out. This is the first time they play at the London Stadium though and I think we will see a tight Cup tie where neither team wants to give too much away.
Second guessing the managers and what teams they pick is a difficulty but Chelsea look short at odds on to win here, while backing two or fewer goals to be scored in ninety minutes is a big price.
Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: Both Manchester United and Manchester City have had to face some criticism in recent weeks but it is Jose Mourinho who comes in with the negative headlines all around him. The 4-0 capitulation at Stamford Bridge was extremely disappointing for Manchester United fans and Mourinho can't really afford a second home defeat in the Manchester derby in the space of seven weeks.
While all the focus has been on Manchester United, Manchester City are perhaps escaping some of the criticism that should really come for a team that have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions. They remain top of the Premier League which is perhaps an explanation as to why Pep Guardiola hasn't had the same negativity as Jose Mourinho, but this is a big game for Manchester City too.
Picking the starting elevens isn't easy with both teams suffering injuries at the weekend and focusing on the Premier League. The indication is that Manchester United will likely have the more experienced team on the pitch on Wednesday and that can make all the difference.
The one thing I can predict with some confidence is that Guardiola is going to play a team that will want to get forward and score goals. They still look vulnerable at the back though and I think this is the second Manchester derby of the season that might feature at least three goals.
Manchester United have to show more attacking intent being at home, but they have lost key player Eric Bailly who has looked good at centre half. That should give Manchester City a chance to create opportunities in front of goal but I think Manchester United will play their part too.
Deciding on a winner is tough but I am leaning towards Manchester United producing the right response with a little more experience in their line up. However it has the feel of a 2-1 win either way and backing goals at odds against looks the call.
MY PICKS: Reading + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Jose Mourinho has already suggested that there will be some players who need to be moved on, including the mole, and I think the manager needs to be given time to get things right. I would love to see Henrikh Mkhitaryan get a run in the team with the pace and creativity he will bring in the final third and I don't want to see the likes of Marcus Rashford running himself into the ground tracking defenders and taking away the energy that needs to be used in a more positive manner.
This is a big moment in the season for Manchester United who don't really want the added pressure of losing to Manchester City again as they get set to do battle in the English Football League Cup during the week. Mourinho has identified the run of games coming up as a time where Manchester United need to pick up some momentum and start putting up the points to get closer to the top teams in the Premier League and now is the time to produce.
Burnley, Swansea City, Arsenal, West Ham United, Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace and West Brom are to come for Manchester United in the Premier League before Christmas. I might have big expectations, but I think the squad and the money invested in the squad should see Manchester United pick up 20/24 points available and that should put the side in a good position with games against Middlesbrough and Sunderland to round out the year.
Mourinho has said we've had a tough run over the last week, but he admitted Manchester United need to start winning games and that run gives them a chance to do that.
This midweek has been reserved for the English Football League Cup Fourth Round and so you have to keep an eye out on team news with the big clubs likely to rest players. October has been a difficult month for my picks but things could have been worse and the last few days will hopefully be a lot more productive.
Arsenal v Reading Pick: The 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the English Football League Cup Third Round with a much changed team shows that Arsenal have the depth to rest players and win this Fourth Round tie at home. Three goals in the last half hour helped Arsenal put Nottingham Forest away, but it might be more difficult against this Reading team who should come in with more confidence.
There are a couple of heavy defeats that Reading have suffered which might be a concern if Arsenal do produce the kind of level they can. However having the second string players out there does give Reading a chance and they have shown they can score goals on their travels.
Jaap Stam does want his Reading team to play with plenty of possession which can help them remain more compact defensively. That style might fit well for Arsenal though and it is no surprise the home team are such big favourites.
I personally think Reading can make this more of a game than the layers and they are getting a fairly healthy start considering it isn't too far fetched to think the Arsenal reserves don't click as well as they did against Nottingham Forest. I have to think Arsene Wenger will rest most of the big names having blamed fatigue for the draw with Middlesbrough and getting an almost two goal start for the away team looks too generous.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Second guessing the kind of line ups that managers will pick in the English Football League Cup has been a challenge over the years. I can guarantee that I would not have picked Jurgen Klopp playing the kind of line ups he has so far in the competition and Liverpool have to be one of the favourites to win this competition considering their recent success in the League Cup.
It would be a surprise if Klopp changes his policy now as Liverpool don't play again until Saturday afternoon although there are a couple of changes he is likely to make. I do think it is more difficult to imagine Tottenham Hotspur having their usual starting line up taking part considering the extra football they have played with the Champions League commitments they have.
Over the last couple of seasons Mauricio Pochettino have played strong teams in the English Football League Cup but I do think he will make more changes than Liverpool in this one. There is some depth to this Tottenham Hotspur squad, but the priority has to be to start winning again in the Premier League when they host Leicester City this weekend.
That gives Liverpool the edge in my opinion and I think being at home just puts that lean towards them a little further. Both games between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with Klopp and Pochettino in charge have been tight games, but I think this one is potentially a little more open.
Ultimately I think Liverpool will come through this Fourth Round tie with a slightly stronger line up in this one helping them past a tough opponent. I will back Liverpool to make it back to back wins at Anfield since the goalless draw with Manchester United.
Southampton v Sunderland Pick: The English Football League Cup might be a distraction from the Premier League problems at Sunderland, but David Moyes is so desperate for a result in the League that the Cup might be a hindrance this week. He admitted his players gave their all in the game at West Ham United on Saturday only to be undone by an injury time goal from Winston Reid and Moyes wants to give those players a rest.
There isn't the depth in squad at Sunderland as there are at some of the top clubs in the Premier League and we might have a young line up taking to the field on Wednesday.
I expect Southampton will make some changes to their line up too after a hard fought 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Sunday. Claude Puel's team have had a really good couple of months as the players have bought into his thinking and Southampton have produced a number of very good results in that time.
Puel is balancing three competitions at the moment and that means Southampton have been asked to mix up their starting line ups. He will make changes, but had a relatively strong team out for the home win over Crystal Palace in the last Round and I think they will have the more experienced team taking to the field for this fixture.
With an extra day before Southampton are next due out compared with Sunderland who have the early Saturday game I do think the home team will be too strong. They haven't had too many wins in home games against Sunderland in recent outings including a 1-1 draw earlier this season, but I think Southampton can use their more experienced squad to good effect and I will back them to win by a couple of goals.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: The layers are expecting goals when these two big London rivals face each other in the English Football League Cup Fourth Round, but I think it could be a tighter Cup contest than that.
Slaven Bilic and Antonio Conte have faced some criticism in recent weeks, but both have gone back to basics by making their teams harder to beat. Chelsea have earned three clean sheets in a row and West Ham United have had back to back clean sheets and I can see both managers making sure they are defensively sound in this one too.
There will be changes made to the starting elevens which might make the defensive shape they have shown look a little out of whack and the Cup situation means an early goal would open up this game. However I think neither team will want to give too much away early on and West Ham United in particularly have seen their attacking side blunted a little bit by the need to be more secure at the back.
Games between them have produced goals when they have met and 4 of the last 5 at Upton Park did end with at least three shared out. This is the first time they play at the London Stadium though and I think we will see a tight Cup tie where neither team wants to give too much away.
Second guessing the managers and what teams they pick is a difficulty but Chelsea look short at odds on to win here, while backing two or fewer goals to be scored in ninety minutes is a big price.
Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: Both Manchester United and Manchester City have had to face some criticism in recent weeks but it is Jose Mourinho who comes in with the negative headlines all around him. The 4-0 capitulation at Stamford Bridge was extremely disappointing for Manchester United fans and Mourinho can't really afford a second home defeat in the Manchester derby in the space of seven weeks.
While all the focus has been on Manchester United, Manchester City are perhaps escaping some of the criticism that should really come for a team that have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions. They remain top of the Premier League which is perhaps an explanation as to why Pep Guardiola hasn't had the same negativity as Jose Mourinho, but this is a big game for Manchester City too.
Picking the starting elevens isn't easy with both teams suffering injuries at the weekend and focusing on the Premier League. The indication is that Manchester United will likely have the more experienced team on the pitch on Wednesday and that can make all the difference.
The one thing I can predict with some confidence is that Guardiola is going to play a team that will want to get forward and score goals. They still look vulnerable at the back though and I think this is the second Manchester derby of the season that might feature at least three goals.
Manchester United have to show more attacking intent being at home, but they have lost key player Eric Bailly who has looked good at centre half. That should give Manchester City a chance to create opportunities in front of goal but I think Manchester United will play their part too.
Deciding on a winner is tough but I am leaning towards Manchester United producing the right response with a little more experience in their line up. However it has the feel of a 2-1 win either way and backing goals at odds against looks the call.
MY PICKS: Reading + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 24-34-1, - 16.55 Units (113 Units Staked, - 14.65% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 73-66-3, + 26.17 Units (257 Units Staked, + 10.18% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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