After what has felt like an age, the Premier League season is finally back.
I hate these years without a major international tournament as my football fix just cannot be fed, but next summer we have the World Cup Finals and we have all survived through the bleak last three months.
Excitement and optimism is in the air around the country and hopefully this is going to be another excellent season.
I have also written about the new season at Manchester United and the excitement most fans are feeling about the new campaign here.
With the start of a new Premier League season, this is considered the time for predictions for the season. While things can change quickly, this is my prediction for the upcoming Premier League season followed by picks from the opening weekend of the season.
Champions: Manchester City- this is a team with the best squad in the Premier League. Pep Guardiola has had a season to understand the Premier League and the differences between managing a top club in this Division compared with La Liga and the Bundesliga and the signings made make Manchester City more well rounded and a younger squad than the one Guardiola was working with last season.
Keeping Vincent Kompany fit may be the key, but the attacking talent is mouthwatering and Manchester City should be more clinical in front of goal which leads to a first title since 2014.
Champions League Places: Manchester United- I think Manchester United will finish behind Manchester City but will push them all the way. Jose Mourinho's side weren't far away from a much better season in the League last season and Romelu Lukaku can join up with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Paul Pogba to provide more goals going forward and turning draws into wins.
Defensively United have options and Nemanja Matic is a huge boost to the squad. If United can purchase a left sided attacking player, they may even have enough to win the title for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
You can read more about my Manchester United thoughts here.
Tottenham Hotspur- this is all about keeping the first eleven fit, which is a tough ask for Tottenham Hotspur. Playing at Wembley instead of White Hart Lane should see them slip back from last season, but they have enough in the first eleven to finish in the Champions League spots again.
Injuries could be a big problem barring some big investment in the remaining days of this transfer window.
Liverpool- everything depends on keeping Philippe Coutinho. Keep him and Liverpool should mount a title challenge but a lack of squad depth will likely mean a top four finish. Mohammed Salah is a good signing and if Sadio Mane remains fit they should be there or thereabouts as long as their Brazilian playmaker stays at the club.
Europa League Places: Chelsea- I thought Chelsea were overrated last season thanks to a record breaking run in the middle of the season. While finishing as Champions, Chelsea need more players with the Champions League to play as well as the Premier League this season.
Alvaro Morata has to adjust to the Premier League quickly, and Eden Hazard can't return quick enough. Chelsea's system should be more familiar to teams this season and I think they rode their luck last season which may desert the current squad and fall out of the top four is possible.
Arsenal- keeping Alexis Sanchez would be a huge achievement for Arsenal and potentially moves them back into the top four, but I am not sure he will stay even now. If Sanchez does move on, I can't see Arsenal finishing higher than 6th place barring a complete collapse from a team above them.
Relegation: Newcastle United- Rafa Benitez is upset and I would not be surprised if he walks away from this job. This is still a Championship looking squad and a lack of investment has bothered the manager.
If Benitez stays, Newcastle United stay up, but his departure may lead to another relegation for a North East side from the Premier League.
Burnley- this is harsh on Burnley who played so well last season, but they were heavily reliant on overachieving massively at Turf Moor. I can't see them matching that and Burnley look weaker without Michael Keane and Andre Gray.
They will work hard, but a step back in the home form may lead to relegation this time around.
Huddersfield Town- all credit has to be given to David Wagner, but The Terriers look far short of the quality needed to survive in the Premier League.
I expect Huddersfield Town to be decent enough in the first three months, but the high press could see players lack the energy in the second half of the season as confidence drops with a loss of form.
League Cup: Manchester City- the strong squad may be able to negotiate the early Rounds and Pep Guardiola may follow the likes of other big name managers in England whose first silverware came in this competition.
FA Cup: Tottenham Hotspur- Mauricio Pochettino has been given plenty of credit for the way he has improved Tottenham Hotspur in his time at the club, but a lack of silverware still sticks out like a sore thumb.
As they improve at Wembley during the course of the season, Tottenham Hotspur should feel right at home when it comes to the FA Cup Semi Final and Final and I can see them finally winning a trophy again.
Now I imagine plenty of these predictions go very wrong with the top six tightly bunched up. But it's just a bit of fun to see how it goes and look back in ten months time and realise how wrong I was back in August.
On Friday the Premier League is back and I have picks from the entire weekend from the top flight, English Championship and Scottish Premiership which can be read below.
Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: After what has felt like an eternity, the Premier League is back in action this weekend with the start of the opening weekend coming on Friday night from North London. For most clubs that might feel like a positive, but there are still some real question marks about this Arsenal team and a section of their support might be itching to make their feelings clear to Arsene Wenger at the Emirates Stadium on Friday evening.
This is actually the sixth season in a row that Arsenal will be opening up the Premier League at home, but they have unbelievably only won 1 of those previous 5 games. In fact Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 including opening weekend losses to West Ham United and Liverpool in the last couple of years.
It actually means Arsenal have won 1 of their last 7 opening Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium and that is not going to be music to the ears of Arsene Wenger. Another poor showing is going to bring the boo birds out again and it is not the kind of way any team wants to begin a new campaign which usually comes with plenty of optimism.
You can’t really judge a team on the way they have played last season, but Leicester City did struggle away from home against the top clubs. The Foxes lost 8 of 9 away games against the top nine in the Premier League last season and 5 of those losses did come by at least two goals.
However they do look a more settled side under Craig Shakespeare and the 3 away games at the top 9 clubs under his guidance saw Leicester City lose narrowly twice.
The squad also hasn’t had the upheaval of losing someone of the importance of N’Golo Kante (at least not at the time of writing) and Leicester City have added a couple of quality additions in Harry Maguire and Vicente Iborra.
With Arsenal potentially missing the likes of Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, I can see why the layers are not giving much away with Leicester City on the handicaps. Add in Arsenal’s opening weekend woes in recent years and this feels like it could be another tight match between two clubs who have had touch encounters in recent years.
The Gunners have managed to get the better of Leicester City with some fortune in those games and I feel they may just earn the narrow edge again. This is a fixture where you want to keep stakes to a minimum, but backing Arsenal to win by a single goal margin might be the best way to approach it.
Leicester City may be a little better all around than last season, but recent years have seen them have their difficulties away from home at the top clubs. They’ve lost 3 times in a row at the Emirates Stadium by a single goal margin, while Arsenal had a 13-1-1 record at home against teams who finished below them last season.
Only 5 of Arsenal’s 14 home Premier League wins came by a single goal margin in the 2016/17 season, but add in their issues on the opening weekend and the absence of Alexis Sanchez and that feels as good as it gets for the most likely winners on the day.
Watford v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp may be very happy to be focusing on competitive football again as he continues to face questions about Philippe Coutinho and whether he will be staying at Liverpool. The distraction of Coutinho as well as the Champions League Qualifiers which begin next week may leave Liverpool a little vulnerable for this trip to Vicarage Road.
There will be excitement around the ground for the early Saturday kick off as Watford play their first game under the guidance of Marco Silva. Despite failing to avoid relegation with Hull City, Silva’s reputation actually improved in English Football as he gave The Tigers every chance to avoid the drop.
Watford fans will be hoping he can help their side kick on in the Premier League with the hope of more positive football than the Walter Mazzarri era produced. However the key remains to avoid the drop into the Championship and Watford have signed players like Will Hughes, Tom Cleverley and Nathanial Chalobah to give them extra bite in the middle of the park.
Silva will also be looking for the shield to protect a Watford defence that finished with the 4th worst record in the Premier League last season. Facing the 4th best attack in the League from last season is going to be a real challenge for Watford this weekend, especially with Sadio Mane back for Liverpool.
The Coutinho situation makes it tough to know whether he will be starting this weekend and that does take away some of the threat of Liverpool. His passing is key for the side, but Mane, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino do offer a real threat for Liverpool going forward.
Liverpool did win 6 of their 10 away games at the teams in the bottom half last season, but one of the failures came at Hull City under Marco Silva. Goals also tended to flow as 7 of those 10 away games finished with at least three goals shared out.
The Silva arrival does change things for Watford who have lost 19 of 20 games against teams that finished in the top five over the last two seasons. This is a team who lost 10 of 12 home games against the top six finishers, and 3 of the 6 games at Vicarage Road against the top six last season ended in Watford losses of two or more goals.
In 5 of their 6 home games against the top six, there were three or more goals featured and I am looking for at least three to be shared out in this one. Liverpool conceded in 13 of 19 away games last season, but have the attacking threat to make up for it, while Watford saw goals flow when they faced the best teams.
Opening weekend games can be tough to read, but I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out by these teams on Saturday.
Chelsea v Burnley Pick: You can’t ignore the similarities between the attitudes of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte just months after winning the Premier League title as Chelsea manager. Mourinho was remarkably unhappy going into the 2015/16 season and lasted a few months before being relieved as manager, while Conte looks increasingly upset at what he perceives is a lack of support in transfer dealings the Champions have made.
There are even suggestions Conte will walk away from Stamford Bridge despite signing a new contract in the summer. A lot will depend on how much business is conducted by Chelsea between now and the end of August, but the poor body language has to be a big concern for Chelsea fans.
No one will dispute that Chelsea look short of numbers, but Conte seems to have escaped the criticisms Mourinho was receiving for not bringing through the youth. Nathan Ake, Nathanial Chalobah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Atsu, Dominic Solanke and Bertrand Traore are just some of the young names that have been allowed to move on.
That’s a lot of players that some would consider as capable squad players that have been let go, but Conte won’t care about that and instead is focusing on the lack of players being signed. It does lead to a negative atmosphere and this opening weekend game is an important one to change the feeling ahead of the big clash with Tottenham Hotspur eight days later.
It does feel like Chelsea are playing the right opponent in a Burnley side who have lost Michael Keane this summer. The majority of the squad has been kept together with some solid signings in Jack Cork and Jonathan Walters, but Burnley struggled mightily away from home last season.
12 of the top 13 clubs beat them in front of their own fans and goals were a problem. For all the anger that Conte has been displaying, Chelsea still look solid enough at the back to be able to keep Burnley from having an impact on the scoreboard.
Asking Chelsea to cover a big Asian Handicap might be too much considering Eden Hazard is absent and with the negativity I have spoken about. It feels like a fixture Chelsea would just love to pick up the three points and then move on to getting ready to face Tottenham Hotspur.
Burnley might have struggled for goals, but they did manage to hit the net at 6 of the top 8 last season. However they didn’t do that at Stamford Bridge and I think Chelsea will be looking to be as tight as possible in this one so backing them to win with a clean sheet is the pick.
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town Pick: The opening weekend of the Premier League season can be a very difficult one to call and so I would advise a minimum unit on this pick. That has a lot to do with how poorly Crystal Palace have played at Selhurst Park over the last three seasons with just 18 wins from their last 57 Premier League games here.
They now have a new manager who plays the brand of football that may be pleasing on the eye, but also could lead to Crystal Palace being more open at the back. That is certainly an area where David Wagner’s Huddersfield Town will look to earn mistakes from their high press which could see The Terriers earn an important win to open the new campaign.
However it is hard to see how Huddersfield Town will have a lot of success away from home at the higher level. The high press is all well and good, but Huddersfield Town will be trying to do that against teams far superior than they played in the Championship last season.
Even then, Huddersfield Town may have finished with the 5th best away record in the Championship, and beat Newcastle United, but the side lost to all the other clubs that finished in the top six. Now at a higher level, Huddersfield Town’s foundation for survival will have to be laid at home.
Opening weekend does produce surprise results though and Crystal Palace look a little short for me. In saying that, half of their home wins over the last two seasons have come against teams that have finished below them in the Premier League table and I would fancy Crystal Palace are going to finish above Huddersfield Town.
Goals could be produced by two teams who will likely try to play some attacking football, but I think the superior Crystal Palace squad can earn the three points on Saturday. It won’t be easy and I think it is hard to fully believe in a side that have such a poor record at home, but I will have a minimum unit pick on Crystal Palace to win.
Everton v Stoke City Pick: There is plenty of excitement going into the new season for Everton, but things could take a real shift if their club are unable to beat Stoke City and also go out of the Europa League before the Group Stage. The fixture compilers have not been kind to Everton so any slow start could see all positive vibes leave the stands before the end of September.
After this Premier League opener against Stoke City, Everton face Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H) and Manchester United (A)… Suffice to say it is important for Everton to get off to a good start this weekend.
The new arrivals at the club have shown intent from Everton, but I feel they may have improved the squad rather than the starting eleven if that makes sense. While they can rotate the squad a little more, the absence of Romelu Lukaku and, to a lesser extent, Ross Barkley does take away pace and quality from the Everton starting line up.
You can understand why Ronald Koeman has not finished his transfer business with that in mind, but it does mean Everton look incredibly short to win this match. I do think they will get the better of Stoke City, who also look weaker than last season at this point, but I won’t be risking too many units on them being able to do that.
Mark Hughes is under a different pressure than Koeman with the expectation at Stoke City not matching that at Everton. However the manager won’t want another start like last season when Stoke City failed to win any of their first 7 Premier League games and lost 4 in a row after an opening day draw with Middlesbrough.
This is a team that continues to struggle to compete with the best teams in the Premier League, especially away from home.
Everton were another who beat Stoke City at home last season, but the back to back home losses to this club prior to that does worry me. I think Everton will also find it tougher to break down these kinds of teams without more investment, but I think they have better momentum and more positive feelings than Stoke City and can show that this weekend.
The side have won 9 of their last 10 at home in all competitions and I will have a minimum unit on Everton winning this weekend.
Brighton v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras will head to the Amex Stadium for the first time for a Premier League game and there will be excitement in the air for both Brighton and Manchester City. The fans in the Stadium will be looking for Brighton to kick on from last season, but Chris Hughton will get an idea of how much work there is to do to keep Brighton in the Premier League when facing a team of this quality on opening weekend.
Finishing 17th will do for Brighton this season you would imagine, but anything less than 1st, or at least a sustained title challenge until May, will probably be seen as a failure for Manchester City. The investment made in the transfer window makes Manchester City the favourites for the title in my opinion, although they do need to keep the likes of Vincent Kompany and Kevin De Bruyne fit for much of the season.
Ederson, Kyle Walker, Benjamin Mendy and Bernardo Silva being added to the talent already in the squad gives Pep Guardiola the options he would want. They have kept Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero together and this is a team with plenty of goals in the side.
I also think Manchester City will continue to be a very dangerous away team having won 12 of 19 away Premier League games last season. With the extra space they will tend to find on their travels, Manchester City have the pace and the quality to exploit the spaces they will tend to find.
Manchester City didn’t beat any of their fellow top five teams away from home, but they were very strong against the rest of the teams. They were beaten at Leicester City, but Manchester City won 11 of 13 games at the bottom 13 last season.
9 of their 12 wins came by two or more goals as Manchester City were very good at exploiting spaces and I expect that to be the case on Saturday. While Brighton will be cautious under Chris Hughton, trying to play preventative football at home can be difficult with the fans urging a team on. Brighton will also have players looking to prove themselves and I think it will be a tough ask for them to stay with this Manchester City team who will put up some big scores away from home this season.
Manchester City were particularly dominant when they faced the teams who finished inside the bottom 7 places and that is where Brighton are most likely to end up. Opening day can see a surprise result or two, but I will be looking for Manchester City to earn a win by at least a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: With a new Stadium being built and Tottenham Hotspur finishing in the Champions League places in consecutive seasons for the first time, fans of the club must have been excited about the chances of winning the Premier League title this season.
However the majority of the teams that finished below them have strengthened, as well as Champions Chelsea, while Tottenham Hotspur have only sold Kyle Walker in this transfer window. Standing still is not really the pathway to success, especially not with the additional factor of playing home games away from White Hart Lane.
Therefore a top four finish would be a big achievement for Tottenham Hotspur whose squad is going to be stretched by Champions League and Premier League Football. An injury to the likes of Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli or Harry Kane would be too difficult to overcome too and I think this could be a difficult season for Spurs.
An injury free season and Tottenham Hotspur will challenge for a top four finish but that is asking for a lot of luck. Tottenham Hotspur had the 5th best away record in the Premier League last season and now essentially have to play 38 away League games.
Tottenham Hotspur were at their best away from home when playing the bottom 9 clubs, winning 8 of those games and drawing the other. That will give them confidence when facing a Newcastle United team who have not strengthened as they would have liked.
However you can’t ignore that Newcastle United finished with the 10th best home record in the Premier League two seasons ago despite relegation. The year prior it was the 13th best home record and Newcastle United will be well organised under Rafa Benitez, who gives them the best shot of the promoted clubs to avoid the drop back into the Championship.
A lack of new investment has bothered Benitez, but Newcastle United will give Tottenham Hotspur a test. At home Newcastle United are expected to get forward so I do think they can pose problems for Tottenham Hotspur, although the same will be said for Tottenham Hotspur when they get forward.
A new season does mean some players could tire, but the temperatures don’t look too bad for August so I expect to see a good game between these two clubs. Goals have flowed when Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur have met at St James’ Park and I think the home team can contribute in an entertaining affair on Sunday.
Tottenham Hotspur look short to win here considering some of the negative headlines about their transfer policy, but any win will have to come in a game featuring at least three goals in my opinion.
Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: Both Manchester United and West Ham United underachieved in the Premier League last season, but both clubs come into the new season with more positive feelings than negative ones. There is a real expectation that both clubs will improve on their 6th and 11th place finishes respectively from last season.
Jose Mourinho’s successes in his second season with previous clubs are being used for further positives for Manchester United who won the Europa Cup to end last season. With the new investment being made on the playing side, there does feel like a title winning squad is being put together, although perhaps still a season away from actually going on to win it.
Romelu Lukaku’s arrival is for games like this one where he can turn draws into wins. Too many clubs came to Old Trafford to earn a draw last season, and notably from further down the League table, but Lukaku showed at Everton he does score in these kind of games.
With the likes of Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan having a season under their belts, Manchester United do look a more settled eleven. They may still be able to do with another left sided attacker and that looks to be an area that will be strengthened before the transfer window shuts, but overall the squad looks better than last season.
It won’t be easy against a West Ham United team even though the Hammers lost 7 of 10 away games against teams that finished above them in the Premier League. One of their positive results came at Old Trafford and West Ham United do look a more settled team this time around compared with twelve months ago.
The arrival of the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez look like solid bits of business for a team looking for a top half finish. However injuries could be a factor on the opening weekend of the season and West Ham United could be needing their hosts to be as poor in front of goal as they were for much of last season.
Chances will be created as Manchester United showed against Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup. There has to be some concern that Manchester United missed some top opportunities in that game too, but I think they open this season with a positive vibe and can record what will be a comfortable home League win to set the tone for the season.
You can read my views about Manchester United's upcoming season here.
Partick Thistle v Celtic Pick: At this stage of the season you would have to think that Celtic are going to be very much focused on the Champions League Play Off Round tie against Astana. The First Leg is played on Wednesday, but Celtic have been given the benefit of a Friday night Scottish Premiership time which should be ample time to prepare for the Champions League tie at Celtic Park.
Partick Thistle will be hoping to build on their 6th place finish in the Scottish Premiership from last season, but it can be tough to know exactly how to approach this League fixture. While they impressed with their highest League finish in almost thirty years, it was clear that Partick Thistle didn't really belong with the elite clubs in the Scottish Premiership.
The squad may be considered stronger this season, but I don't think you can ignore the fact Partick Thistle lost 9 of 10 home games against the teams who finished above them in the Scottish Premiership. There is also no doubt that Celtic look head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the Division and they did record 2 big wins at Firhill Stadium last season (1-4 in December and 0-5 in May).
The home team have to hope Celtic are distracted, but Brendan Rodgers has his team playing very well early in the last campaign with the hope of keeping positive momentum behind them going into the Champions League Qualifiers. With a couple of big wins already this week, Celtic look very dangerous here.
Celtic have won 14 in a row at Partick Thistle and 9 of those have come by at least a couple of goals. That includes 5 of the last 6 including both last season and Partick Thistle were beaten by a couple of goals in 3 of 4 matches against Celtic and Aberdeen last season.
Backing Celtic to win here by at least a couple of goals looks to be too big a price and I will look for the Scottish Champions to have some real momentum behind them when they face Astana next week.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest Pick: The opening weeks of a new season can be difficult to get a read on with teams sometimes undercooked at the start and then rapidly making improvements with the quick succession of matches in August. There are 4 games for the teams in the Championship to negotiate by the middle of the month and this is the third of those for Brentford and Nottingham Forest.
Mark Warburton should receive a positive welcome from the Brentford fans having guided them to a Play Off spot before harshly being let go by the owner. Brentford have not been able to match that finish since Warburton left, but the manager is now concerned with Nottingham Forest.
He was not happy with the performance in the 1-0 win over Millwall, while Brentford perhaps deserved more than a defeat at Sheffield United last week. Being at home for the first time may give Brentford the chance to move back level on points with their visitors who had an awful away record last season.
Brentford were inconsistent at home for the second season in a row and that has to be a concern. However they do have goals in the squad and would have been encouraged by the chances Millwall created against Nottingham Forest, while Brentford have beaten Nottingham Forest twice in a row at Griffin Park.
That is enough to have a minimum unit interest on Brentford winning their first home game of the season.
Leeds United v Preston North End Pick: There was a disappointment in the Leeds United fanbase that they could not keep Garry Monk as manager and it was clear how much the supporters are still thankful to their former manager last weekend. However the Thomas Christiansen era has gotten off to a positive start with back to back wins and now the manager looks for a first League win at Elland Road.
7 goals scored in a couple of games will encourage the fans that an exciting season is forthcoming, but Christiansen is likely going to want Leeds United to show better defensive shape.
Elland Road is also going to be an important venue for Leeds United if they want to improve on their 7th place finish from last season. They played well here last season, but still have room for improvement having finished with fewer wins than seven other teams in the Championship.
Leeds United look to be facing the right opponent in Preston North End despite Alex Neil's men getting off to a positive start with a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday last weekend. However they were then beaten 3-2 at Accrington Stanley in the League Cup and Preston North End have not won any of 12 away games in all competitions and lost 5 in a row.
They were also beaten by 6 of the top 7 in the League away from home last season and Preston North End have lost twice in a row at Elland Road since being promoted back into the Championship. I think Leeds United can continue their 100% record in the new season here and are worth a back to win this one.
Sheffield Wednesday v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is still very early in the new League season but earning the first points will still be the only way for players to truly settle into the campaign.
Sheffield Wednesday and Queens Park Rangers both moved into the League Cup Second Round during the week with wins over lower League opposition, but only Queens Park Rangers won on the opening weekend.
Playing at home should give Sheffield Wednesday every chance to win their first League game especially as they look a stronger squad than Queens Park Rangers. The latter did lose at 3 of the top 5 from last season, although they have proved to be a tough nut to crack at times.
Losing 6 of their last 7, including the last 5 in a row, away from home will put Queens Park Rangers in a tough spot and over the last couple of seasons Sheffield Wednesday have generally been able to beat those teams who finished below them at Hillsborough.
It won't be easy to keep the stake to a minimum, but I will look for Sheffield Wednesday to find a way to get the better of Queens Park Rangers here.
Middlesbrough v Sheffield United Pick: Twelve months ago there would have been two Divisions between these teams, but on Saturday Middlesbrough and Sheffield United will be playing in a League game at the Riverside Stadium.
While the thinking may be that Middlesbrough are feeling down after relegation and Sheffield United are on the up following promotion, it is Middlesbrough who are considered favourites in the Championship. This is a squad that has the majority of players from the team that won promotion two years ago, while Garry Monk has been able to add some real firepower.
That didn't look the case in the 1-0 loss at Wolves last weekend, but you have to think Middlesbrough will have goals in the squad and will be there or thereabouts when it comes to promotion places in May.
Sheffield United will be confident having won 1-0 last weekend in their first game at this level in seven years, but they were put under pressure by Brentford and that game was played at Bramall Lane. Playing away from home will be a much tougher test for a newly promoted side and I think it is important to note they lost at both Bolton Wanderers and Millwall who came up with them.
In fact The Blades failed to beat any of the 5 teams immediately below them away from home and this is a big step up in competition for them. I do think Middlesbrough will challenge for promotion and Garry Monk's Leeds United were very strong at home last season.
I expect Middlesbrough to get their first win of the season this weekend.
MY PICKS: Arsenal to Win by One Goal @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Watford-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brentford @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Leeds United @ 2.05 Coral (1 Unit)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Middlesbrough @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
August Update: 2-3-1, - 0.85 Units (6 Units Staked, - 14.17% Yield)
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Friday, 11 August 2017
Friday, 4 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 4-6)
The football season is finally back with a bang this weekend with the lower Leagues in England beginning their fixtures and meaning we are just a week away from the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
I will have a fuller post for the Weekend Football Picks next week, but this week I am going to begin with the first football picks of the new season. Time has been an issue for this thread, but hopefully it will be a good start to the season after a pretty poor showing in 2016/17.
Nottingham Forest v Millwall Pick: The Championship season gets underway this weekend and the long, arduous road to the Premier League begins in what is notoriously a difficult League to contend in.
At this stage positive vibes should exist in most football clubs as they put together some heady ambitions for the coming season. Nottingham Forest are definitely feeling more excited than they have in recent years with a new owner at the helm and Mark Warburton in as manager who has had success with Brentford at this level previously.
Losing Britt Assombalonga is a blow, but Nottingham Forest look a much more well rounded squad and the ambitions are to stop the decline in League finishes which have been occurring in recent years. Moving into a position to contend for a place in the Premier League is the ambition of Evangelos Marinakis, but this might be a season too early to think about that.
Any promotion push has to be fuelled by the form at the City Ground where Nottingham Forest were strong last season having secured 12 wins from 23 League games. 7 of those 12 wins came against teams who finished in the bottom half and Nottingham Forest will be looking to get the new era off to a positive start with a win over Millwall on Friday.
Finishing in the bottom half, but outside the bottom three, is likely to be the limit of the ambitions for Millwall this season having come through the League One Play Offs three months ago. Neil Harris has been successful as manager here, but this is a new challenge for him at the higher level and it could be a tough season for Millwall, especially on their travels considering their difficulties at the League One level away from home.
Millwall did win their last 3 League games at the City Ground, but I think the excitement around Nottingham Forest can be transferred to the players in this opening game. Keep stakes to a minimum with the opening weekend always a difficult one to figure out, but I will be backing Nottingham Forest to open this 2017/18 season under new ownership and management with a win.
Sunderland v Derby County Pick: Simon Grayson has helped Preston North End surpass expectations in the Championship and he may be the right person to guide Sunderland and turn around what has been declining performances from the club in recent season. However, like Aston Villa, it feels like Sunderland are going to need time to consolidate in the Championship before they can make a real assault at getting back into the top flight.
Some big names have left the club already and others are set to follow before the close of the transfer deadline. However it can't come quick enough for some players with a video showing Darron Gibson criticising other members of the squad came out in the evening after a 5-0 defeat to Celtic in a preseason friendly last week.
It does feel like Grayson is going to need time to turn things around at Sunderland by changing the culture of the club. A losing habit is hard to shift (again ask Aston Villa) and Sunderland have gotten used to losing plenty of games.
Things definitely feel more positive for Derby County who have a manager in Gary Rowett who was overachieving with Birmingham City before harshly being sacked. The football may not always be pleasing on the eye, but Derby County are sure to be tough to beat and have signed some quality players even though losing Will Hughes and Tom Ince is tough.
It hasn't been a perfect preseason for Derby County and they did struggle away from home at the back end of last season. However I think the organisation may be better than Sunderland and the players may all be pulling in the same direction more than the home team.
The fans might not be right behind the Sunderland players either and they look a vulnerable favourite. The price on the home win has been on the drift so Derby County are not as attractive a back as they were even two weeks ago, but I do like the chances of The Rams avoiding defeat and potentially even winning here.
I would advise keeping stakes to a minimum because teams who look in disarray can surprise on the opening weekend (think back to Hull City beating Leicester City with a skeleton squad last season), but I will look for Derby County on what is the essentially 'Draw No Bet' market.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick: After a season in which they overachieved from the goals set out, Fulham will go into the 2017/18 season with a lot more expectation on their shoulders. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that, but you can't be surprised that so many are tipping Fulham up for promotion when you think they had the second best record in the Championship over the second half of the season.
Falling short in the Play Offs is a negative and Chris Martin has returned to Derby County, but Fulham are still expected to be there or thereabouts at the end of this season. That is certainly more than most will be expecting of Norwich City who have a new manager and will be employing a new style.
Some key players have left Norwich City this summer as Jacob Murphy and Jonny Howson have moved on, while a new manager can mean a new learning curve. Daniel Farke will be looking to replicate what David Wagner did in English Football after learning his trade at Borussia Dortmund, although it does have to be said that Wagner's methods took half a season to take hold.
Goals weren't a problem for Norwich City last season, but defensively they struggled. The side conceded at least twice in all 7 away games at the teams that finished above them in the table last season and this opening day fixture has the chance of being a high-scoring one too.
Fulham home games and Norwich City away games featured plenty of goals last season and I will be looking for at least three goals to be shared out between them here. Opening day games do mean teams are perhaps not as sharp as they would want to be, but these two should be amongst the most attacking teams in the Championship and can provide plenty of entertainment for the fans at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Hull City Pick: Both Aston Villa and Hull City will be feeling that they should still be playing Premier League Football, but there is a tough path to tread to get back into the top flight.
The signing of John Terry has clearly invigorated the Aston Villa support and has to be a reason they are considered the joint favourites to win the Championship this season. I am not sure I am convinced about that until Steve Bruce can get some consistency from his team, but they have definitely been better at home under his guidance.
Being at home on the opening day is important for Aston Villa to try and put some momentum behind them and they look to be facing Hull City at the right time. I thought the same when Leicester City took on Hull City twelve months ago in the Premier League, but on that day Hull City ignored the disarray off the field to secure a win.
They will need to do the same to get the Leonid Slutsky era off to a positive start, but it does feel Hull City are missing numbers and need to do more in the transfer market. They certainly look short of a promotion bid this time around and former manager Steve Bruce can help Aston Villa earn the three points in this one.
Opening day fixtures can be a little haphazard to judge, but I will have an interest in Aston Villa getting the better of Hull City for an eighth time in a row at Villa Park. Aston Villa look more settled than Hull City and I will back them at odds against.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The traditional curtain raiser in England is the Community Shield which is played this Sunday between Arsenal and Chelsea, the two teams who signed off on the 2016/17 season with their match in the FA Cup Final in May. Arsenal were a big underdog that day but managed to earn the 2-1 victory, and they will look for a third consecutive win over Chelsea at Wembley Stadium since August 2015.
The Arsenal fans are still not fully behind Arsene Wenger and the Frenchman cannot afford a slow start in a season where the club will not be playing in the Champions League. Issues in the squad continue to be a problem for Wenger who is adamant that the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez will not be allowed to leave in this transfer window, although the latter continues to be the subject of heavy interest from clubs both at home and abroad.
It is unlikely that Sanchez will be asked to start in this one having recently returned to the club from his Confederations Cup absence and with a Premier League fixture to come next Friday. A lack of investment in the squad won't have impressed the fans and Arsenal will be looking for a morale boosting start to the season like they have achieved in Community Shield wins in 2014 and 2015.
The FA Cup Winners have actually won the last 3 Community Shields.
However Chelsea will feel they can snap that run despite the injuries in the squad and not yet completing their transfer business. They beat Arsenal in a preseason game with relative comfort and the foundations remain strong with the injuries mainly in the forward areas.
They will still likely be able to put a four of Cesc Fabregas, Alvaro Morata, Willian and Michy Batshuayi out on the field and those players are capable of producing the magic Antonio Conte's side may need. An Arsenal team likely to be without Alexis Sanchez don't look as dangerous despite the money they have spent on Alexandre Lacazette and I think Chelsea can take advantage.
This is essentially a glorified friendly so I wouldn't have anything other than a minimum stake on the game. With that in mind, I will look for Chelsea to get the better of Arsenal despite how much the latter have enjoyed playing at Wembley Stadium as I look for The Blues to show a little more defensive strength than the FA Cup Winners.
Celtic v Hearts Pick: At this stage of the season you have to think Brendan Rodgers is only focusing on the Champions League Play Off Round and the upcoming tie against Astana. While he won't want to see his unbeaten record with Celtic in Scotland come to an end, Rodgers is unlikely to risk players who may need a little more time to make sure they are ready for Astana.
They may be playing the right opponent in that respect with Hearts arriving under a cloud having finally decided to get rid of Ian Cathro as manager. The form under Cathro's guidance has been tremendously poor and Hearts really struggled away from home which does not bode well for a trip to Celtic Park.
Even though there are injuries in the Celtic squad, the competitive games played at the level they have been should mean the players in this one are sharper than Hearts. They also dominated Hearts in their 4 meetings in the 2016/17 season and I think the defending Champions can get off to a very positive start.
The layers are expecting a heavy win for Celtic and they did begin last season with plenty of goals being scored. I did consider Celtic winning with a clean sheet, but the defensive injuries put me off, and I do think the home team can produce a solid win on the day.
Covering this Asian Handicap won't be easy, but Celtic have the capability to do that especially at home. Missing Moussa Dembele is a blow, but Hearts come in short of confidence and I will look for Celtic to take advantage of that.
MY PICKS: Nottingham Forest @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Derby County + 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Fulham-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea @ 2.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
I will have a fuller post for the Weekend Football Picks next week, but this week I am going to begin with the first football picks of the new season. Time has been an issue for this thread, but hopefully it will be a good start to the season after a pretty poor showing in 2016/17.
Nottingham Forest v Millwall Pick: The Championship season gets underway this weekend and the long, arduous road to the Premier League begins in what is notoriously a difficult League to contend in.
At this stage positive vibes should exist in most football clubs as they put together some heady ambitions for the coming season. Nottingham Forest are definitely feeling more excited than they have in recent years with a new owner at the helm and Mark Warburton in as manager who has had success with Brentford at this level previously.
Losing Britt Assombalonga is a blow, but Nottingham Forest look a much more well rounded squad and the ambitions are to stop the decline in League finishes which have been occurring in recent years. Moving into a position to contend for a place in the Premier League is the ambition of Evangelos Marinakis, but this might be a season too early to think about that.
Any promotion push has to be fuelled by the form at the City Ground where Nottingham Forest were strong last season having secured 12 wins from 23 League games. 7 of those 12 wins came against teams who finished in the bottom half and Nottingham Forest will be looking to get the new era off to a positive start with a win over Millwall on Friday.
Finishing in the bottom half, but outside the bottom three, is likely to be the limit of the ambitions for Millwall this season having come through the League One Play Offs three months ago. Neil Harris has been successful as manager here, but this is a new challenge for him at the higher level and it could be a tough season for Millwall, especially on their travels considering their difficulties at the League One level away from home.
Millwall did win their last 3 League games at the City Ground, but I think the excitement around Nottingham Forest can be transferred to the players in this opening game. Keep stakes to a minimum with the opening weekend always a difficult one to figure out, but I will be backing Nottingham Forest to open this 2017/18 season under new ownership and management with a win.
Sunderland v Derby County Pick: Simon Grayson has helped Preston North End surpass expectations in the Championship and he may be the right person to guide Sunderland and turn around what has been declining performances from the club in recent season. However, like Aston Villa, it feels like Sunderland are going to need time to consolidate in the Championship before they can make a real assault at getting back into the top flight.
Some big names have left the club already and others are set to follow before the close of the transfer deadline. However it can't come quick enough for some players with a video showing Darron Gibson criticising other members of the squad came out in the evening after a 5-0 defeat to Celtic in a preseason friendly last week.
It does feel like Grayson is going to need time to turn things around at Sunderland by changing the culture of the club. A losing habit is hard to shift (again ask Aston Villa) and Sunderland have gotten used to losing plenty of games.
Things definitely feel more positive for Derby County who have a manager in Gary Rowett who was overachieving with Birmingham City before harshly being sacked. The football may not always be pleasing on the eye, but Derby County are sure to be tough to beat and have signed some quality players even though losing Will Hughes and Tom Ince is tough.
It hasn't been a perfect preseason for Derby County and they did struggle away from home at the back end of last season. However I think the organisation may be better than Sunderland and the players may all be pulling in the same direction more than the home team.
The fans might not be right behind the Sunderland players either and they look a vulnerable favourite. The price on the home win has been on the drift so Derby County are not as attractive a back as they were even two weeks ago, but I do like the chances of The Rams avoiding defeat and potentially even winning here.
I would advise keeping stakes to a minimum because teams who look in disarray can surprise on the opening weekend (think back to Hull City beating Leicester City with a skeleton squad last season), but I will look for Derby County on what is the essentially 'Draw No Bet' market.
Fulham v Norwich City Pick: After a season in which they overachieved from the goals set out, Fulham will go into the 2017/18 season with a lot more expectation on their shoulders. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that, but you can't be surprised that so many are tipping Fulham up for promotion when you think they had the second best record in the Championship over the second half of the season.
Falling short in the Play Offs is a negative and Chris Martin has returned to Derby County, but Fulham are still expected to be there or thereabouts at the end of this season. That is certainly more than most will be expecting of Norwich City who have a new manager and will be employing a new style.
Some key players have left Norwich City this summer as Jacob Murphy and Jonny Howson have moved on, while a new manager can mean a new learning curve. Daniel Farke will be looking to replicate what David Wagner did in English Football after learning his trade at Borussia Dortmund, although it does have to be said that Wagner's methods took half a season to take hold.
Goals weren't a problem for Norwich City last season, but defensively they struggled. The side conceded at least twice in all 7 away games at the teams that finished above them in the table last season and this opening day fixture has the chance of being a high-scoring one too.
Fulham home games and Norwich City away games featured plenty of goals last season and I will be looking for at least three goals to be shared out between them here. Opening day games do mean teams are perhaps not as sharp as they would want to be, but these two should be amongst the most attacking teams in the Championship and can provide plenty of entertainment for the fans at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Hull City Pick: Both Aston Villa and Hull City will be feeling that they should still be playing Premier League Football, but there is a tough path to tread to get back into the top flight.
The signing of John Terry has clearly invigorated the Aston Villa support and has to be a reason they are considered the joint favourites to win the Championship this season. I am not sure I am convinced about that until Steve Bruce can get some consistency from his team, but they have definitely been better at home under his guidance.
Being at home on the opening day is important for Aston Villa to try and put some momentum behind them and they look to be facing Hull City at the right time. I thought the same when Leicester City took on Hull City twelve months ago in the Premier League, but on that day Hull City ignored the disarray off the field to secure a win.
They will need to do the same to get the Leonid Slutsky era off to a positive start, but it does feel Hull City are missing numbers and need to do more in the transfer market. They certainly look short of a promotion bid this time around and former manager Steve Bruce can help Aston Villa earn the three points in this one.
Opening day fixtures can be a little haphazard to judge, but I will have an interest in Aston Villa getting the better of Hull City for an eighth time in a row at Villa Park. Aston Villa look more settled than Hull City and I will back them at odds against.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The traditional curtain raiser in England is the Community Shield which is played this Sunday between Arsenal and Chelsea, the two teams who signed off on the 2016/17 season with their match in the FA Cup Final in May. Arsenal were a big underdog that day but managed to earn the 2-1 victory, and they will look for a third consecutive win over Chelsea at Wembley Stadium since August 2015.
The Arsenal fans are still not fully behind Arsene Wenger and the Frenchman cannot afford a slow start in a season where the club will not be playing in the Champions League. Issues in the squad continue to be a problem for Wenger who is adamant that the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez will not be allowed to leave in this transfer window, although the latter continues to be the subject of heavy interest from clubs both at home and abroad.
It is unlikely that Sanchez will be asked to start in this one having recently returned to the club from his Confederations Cup absence and with a Premier League fixture to come next Friday. A lack of investment in the squad won't have impressed the fans and Arsenal will be looking for a morale boosting start to the season like they have achieved in Community Shield wins in 2014 and 2015.
The FA Cup Winners have actually won the last 3 Community Shields.
However Chelsea will feel they can snap that run despite the injuries in the squad and not yet completing their transfer business. They beat Arsenal in a preseason game with relative comfort and the foundations remain strong with the injuries mainly in the forward areas.
They will still likely be able to put a four of Cesc Fabregas, Alvaro Morata, Willian and Michy Batshuayi out on the field and those players are capable of producing the magic Antonio Conte's side may need. An Arsenal team likely to be without Alexis Sanchez don't look as dangerous despite the money they have spent on Alexandre Lacazette and I think Chelsea can take advantage.
This is essentially a glorified friendly so I wouldn't have anything other than a minimum stake on the game. With that in mind, I will look for Chelsea to get the better of Arsenal despite how much the latter have enjoyed playing at Wembley Stadium as I look for The Blues to show a little more defensive strength than the FA Cup Winners.
Celtic v Hearts Pick: At this stage of the season you have to think Brendan Rodgers is only focusing on the Champions League Play Off Round and the upcoming tie against Astana. While he won't want to see his unbeaten record with Celtic in Scotland come to an end, Rodgers is unlikely to risk players who may need a little more time to make sure they are ready for Astana.
They may be playing the right opponent in that respect with Hearts arriving under a cloud having finally decided to get rid of Ian Cathro as manager. The form under Cathro's guidance has been tremendously poor and Hearts really struggled away from home which does not bode well for a trip to Celtic Park.
Even though there are injuries in the Celtic squad, the competitive games played at the level they have been should mean the players in this one are sharper than Hearts. They also dominated Hearts in their 4 meetings in the 2016/17 season and I think the defending Champions can get off to a very positive start.
The layers are expecting a heavy win for Celtic and they did begin last season with plenty of goals being scored. I did consider Celtic winning with a clean sheet, but the defensive injuries put me off, and I do think the home team can produce a solid win on the day.
Covering this Asian Handicap won't be easy, but Celtic have the capability to do that especially at home. Missing Moussa Dembele is a blow, but Hearts come in short of confidence and I will look for Celtic to take advantage of that.
MY PICKS: Nottingham Forest @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Derby County + 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Fulham-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea @ 2.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Friday, 17 February 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (February 18-20)
I mentioned before the midweek fixtures that I have had a pretty demoralising last couple of months for the Football Picks with little going my way and there was a little bit more misfortune attached to my picks over the last few days.
Derby County somehow blew a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 at home to Cardiff City and Athletic Bilbao conceded late which meant they missed the Asian Handicap cover in a 3-2 win over APOEL. If both of those go my way, I am back into a positive for February, but instead I have made a big dent in the totals from last weekend.
Another penalty miss hurt in the Benfica-Borussia Dortmund Champions League Last 16 First Leg on Tuesday- I have lost count of the amount of penalty misses in games where I am backing goals but that is another to add to the list as it came with half an hour to go and the game set to move to 1-1 on the scoreboard.
So while I did have a winning midweek, I should have had one which turned things right around and really got the month back on track. Hopefully I will be able to build on that momentum this weekend as the FA Cup Fifth Round and Championship takes centre stage before the Premier League resumes next weekend.
Before that there will be another busy midweek of Champions League, Europa League and domestic football in the lower Leagues to come. Both Manchester City and Leicester City will have their Last 16 First Legs in the Champions League during the week, while Tottenham Hotspur are trying to turn around a 1-0 First Leg loss in the Europa League.
I am pretty confident Manchester United have already done enough to move into the Last 16 because I think they will score out in St-Etienne and the draw will be made next Friday for the Last 16 when country protections are set aside.
Burnley v Lincoln City Pick: You can't take anything for granted in football, but Burnley have to feel they are well on their way to avoiding relegation from the Premier League with 13 League games to play. The form at Turf Moor has been incredibly good all season and Burnley have used that to move onto 30 points with 29 points being earned at home.
That should mean Sean Dyche can play a strong team in a bid to help Burnley put an exclamation mark on the season by continuing their run in the FA Cup. With a week to prepare for this game and another week before Burnley are due to play again, not playing a strong team would be really disappointing as Burnley are very close to playing at Wembley Stadium.
The form this season should also mean Burnley fear no team left in the FA Cup, especially with many of them having other priorities, and I think the right draw can take Burnley all the way to the Final. It won't be an easy ride, but Burnley have to be very pleased with their Fifth Round draw as they take on one of the two non-League teams left in the FA Cup and at home.
Lincoln City have to be respected, but this is a huge challenge for the National League leaders who are being challenged for promotion and have a big game on Tuesday night. Players at this level won't want to 'rest' for that game at North Ferriby United, but this is still a huge step up from their usual level of opponents.
Burnley have been winning plenty of games at Turf Moor and played so well against Chelsea that only complacency will prevent them moving through. I don't think Dyche does complacency though and I expect Burnley to work hard and give Lincoln City all the respect in the world.
I would be surprised if it is a really comfortable day for Burnley because Lincoln City will be up for it, but eventually you would imagine the home team are too strong. Burnley don't concede many goals here and have only conceded 2 goals in their last 7 home games in all competitions. They have won both home games in the FA Cup with a clean sheet and I will back them at odds against to do that in the Fifth Round too and end the dream run for The Imps.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester City Pick: You have to think that both David Wagner and Pep Guardiola are looking ahead to a much bigger game on Tuesday despite being in the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend. For Manchester City clearly the Champions League Last 16 First Leg against Monaco is the one they will be really looking forward to, while Huddersfield Town have a huge game against Reading in the Championship with the winner potentially being in a good position to secure automatic promotion to the Premier League.
With that in mind I am expecting both managers to shuffle the pack in this one and trying to work out the starting line ups is far from easy.
It should make this Fifth Round tie a fairly open one too as neither Huddersfield Town nor Manchester City will want a Replay in ten days time. Both teams are much more comfortable going forward than they are defending and I am not surprised that the layers have priced up at least three goals to be shared out at a pretty short price.
In saying that, I am a little more surprised that both teams to score is a much bigger price than there being at least three goals overall. I understand Manchester City are capable of covering these numbers themselves, but I actually considered backing Huddersfield Town with the start on the Handicap if they did not have such a big fixture next up on deck.
Manchester City do have 3 clean sheets in a row away from home and in 5 of their last 7 on their travels overall, but there could be changes made by Guardiola in this one which will give the home team encouragement. This is a team in Huddersfield Town who have been very good going forward all season anyway and I do think they will pose problems, although they do have to be better defensively.
Overall there looks a real chance for both teams to play their part in this Fifth Round tie before all is said and done and I will back both to score in an entertaining afternoon.
Middlesbrough v Oxford United Pick: There is no doubt that Middlesbrough are firmly in the mix of a relegation battle in the Premier League and the problem has been a lack of goals. Defensively they have been very good for the most part, but the pressure is definitely on for Middlesbrough in the coming weeks.
For this weekend they can put aside Premier League concerns and try and beat a third lower League team in the FA Cup and move onto the Sixth Round next month. Middlesbrough are unsurprisingly the favourites to win the tie against Oxford United of League One, especially as they are hosting it, but I wouldn't want to underestimate the visitors who have 'nothing to lose'.
Oxford United will look to play their football and see if they can build some pressure on the struggling Premier League side, while they have previous having beaten Swansea City of the Premier League and Newcastle United of the Championship in the last fourteen months in the FA Cup. Both of those wins have come at home though and it is a big ask for Oxford United to stun Middlesbrough here.
The U's have scored in their last 7 away games in all competitions though and I expect that is an issue for Middlesbrough who have not been as watertight at the back in recent weeks as they were a month ago. They are still very good at home though and both FA Cup games have been won with a clean sheet against Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington Stanley, but I do anticipate Oxford United causing a few more problems.
Middlesbrough did score three times in their win over Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup Third Round and did the same to Swansea City in the League. With that in mind I can see both teams playing their part in a lively Cup tie on Saturday and I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out.
It wouldn't surprise me if a changed Middlesbrough team conceded, but they should still be too strong over the course of 90 minutes and I expect they will get through. The Cup being as it is, a late goal may see this number surpassed and I am backing goals.
Millwall v Leicester City Pick: After such a memorable 2016, 2017 is shaping up to be a really difficult season for Leicester City. Their priority is now finding a way to reverse momentum and secure their place in the Premier League for next season, but Claudio Ranieri has one FA Cup game and one Champions League game to negotiate before The Foxes return to Premier League action.
It would be a real surprise if Ranieri did not make wholesale changes to his Leicester City starting eleven following the 2-0 loss at Swansea City last weekend, and that gives Millwall the chance to take a hat-trick of Premier League scalps. Millwall have already beaten Bournemouth and Watford in the FA Cup here and there is every chance that they can take out a much changed Leicester City team and move a game away from playing at Wembley Stadium in the Cup Semi Final.
I have to admit I was tempted to back Millwall to win this game, but Leicester City's fringe players have performed well in the FA Cup at Everton and at home against Derby County. They still have plenty of speed in forward areas which can be tough for a League One side to deal with and South London's weather won't have produced a great equaliser with the pitch condition either.
Millwall are in fine form and have kept 5 clean sheets in a row which includes in both games in the FA Cup against Premier League opposition. That made the home team appealing, and Leicester City's goal drought in the Premier League is well documented.
However, the changes made in the FA Cup have seen Leicester City score 5 times in their 3 Cup games and I can see both teams creating their chances in this one. The oddsmakers are not anticipating a free flowing game, but I think it might surprise with both Millwall and Leicester City looking to win the tie without the need for a Replay.
At a fairly big price, I am going to back this to be another Cup tie where there are at least three goals shared out.
Wolves v Chelsea Pick: It is hard to second guess some of the teams that managers will put out in the FA Cup, but it would make very little sense for Antonio Conte to rest players just three games out from the Cup Final. There are only two competitions in which Chelsea are involved the rest of this season and they have a very good lead in the Premier League that I am expecting a very strong side to be picked.
There will be some changes, but the formation will likely be the same as usual and the biggest concern for Chelsea in this game is that Wolves produce something close to the level they did at Anfield. That Wolves team has not been seen too often since the win at Liverpool in the Fourth Round and they have actually looked pretty poor in the last couple of weeks as Wolves have slipped back into a potential relegation battle.
The win at Liverpool also came against a changed home team who were going through a really difficult patch, but this Chelsea team are playing much better. Draws at Liverpool and Burnley in their last couple of away games shouldn't be a real concern for Antonio Conte as they could easily have won both on another day, but Chelsea do have to be at their best to get a result here.
There is enough talent in the Premier League leaders' squad that they should be good enough to come away from Wolves with the win without the need for a replay. I am anticipating the likes of Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Willian to start in the forward positions and that should be enough to beat Wolves.
Chelsea are not conceding a lot of goals and even a couple of changes might not affect them here. They can pick off a Wolves team that is potentially chasing an equaliser late in the game and finish off the tie and I like Chelsea to win this by a couple of goals at odds against.
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The television cameras will pitch up to Craven Cottage on Sunday and Tottenham Hotspur have been set as the odds on favourites to win here. I really can't understand that considering recent form that both Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur have displayed and I am going to back the home team to avoid defeat at the least.
That won't be easy for Fulham as they try and raise their level to take on a Premier League side currently in the top three of that Division. However the game is being played at Craven Cottage and Tottenham Hotspur have shown they have not been as strong on their travels as they have been at White Hart Lane.
A lack of goals in the last couple of weeks has to concern Mauricio Pochettino while this game comes at an awkward time in the football calendar for Tottenham Hotspur. They played on Thursday night in Belgium and the home game with Gent next week in the Second Leg is clearly the more important game for Pochettino if you consider the team he put out in the First Leg.
That does make me think that Tottenham Hotspur will make a number of changes to their first team which almost cost them against Wycombe Wanderers in the Fourth Round. On the other hand I would think a much more recognisable Fulham XI to start this game and they look a good shout at odds against to at least force a Replay.
I did consider backing at least four goals to be shared out, but Tottenham Hotspur's struggles in front of goal do concern me, especially if both Dele Alli and Harry Kane are left out of the starting eleven. Fulham have shown they can score plenty of goals at Craven Cottage in recent weeks and two goals could potentially be enough to secure the upset. I will stick with backing the home team on the Asian Handicap in this one.
Blackburn Rovers v Manchester United Pick: There have been times that I have expected Manchester United to rest players in their Cup games and use the squad, but Jose Mourinho continues to pick his strongest players where possible. He has tended to make the majority of his changes in the FA Cup so far and the admittance that he will play a strong team at St-Etienne on Wednesday night suggests this is the game where others will be given a chance to shine.
This might not be the strongest Manchester United squad of the last twenty years, but it is definitely one with depth and is improving. Even if the starting eleven is not as familiar as it could be, Manchester United have the players that should be too good for a Blackburn Rovers team who are struggling at the wrong end of the Championship.
I can't imagine too many who started on Thursday being involved here, but the likes of Jesse Lingard, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney should still be good enough to beat a team of Blackburn Rovers standard. That is no disrespect to Blackburn Rovers who have played well at Ewood Park in recent weeks and beaten Newcastle United here, but they are not 23rd in the Championship by fluke with almost three-quarters of the season played.
There is no doubt the game at Burton Albion next Friday is the far bigger game for Blackburn Rovers and the fans are more likely to be protesting against the owners than backing the players. That is an issue at the moment and I am not sure Ewood Park is a pitch where Blackburn Rovers can make life difficult for Manchester United, but instead is one where the Premier League team can play their football.
Manchester United have been very strong in the Cup competitions this season but the majority of their best performances have been at Old Trafford, which is in contrast to the Premier League where Manchester United have been very effective on their travels. The side have lost 3 of their 5 away Cup games this season, but Manchester United have won the other 2 by a couple of goals each time and I will back that to happen here.
Jose Mourinho is right that a fixture backlog is developing for Manchester United, but this is a manager who insists they win every game they play and I expect Manchester United to reach the Sixth Round of the FA Cup at the first attempt. I will back them to win at Ewood Park by a couple of goals at odds against.
Sutton United v Arsenal Pick: A defeat at Sutton United for Arsenal would be one of the biggest upsets in arguably any football game played around the world, but in reality this is probably the perfect chance for the Arsenal players to bounce back from the disappointment of Munich last Wednesday.
They have had time to recover physically and Arsenal will not play again until Saturday 4th March following this one so Arsene Wenger will have a number of his recognisable players out on the field. It has been a good period of weather in and around Sutton United too so the pitch should be in perfect condition once the Arsenal players get used to the bounce on an artificial surface.
Of course Sutton United should have a very strong work ethic and the fans will be on top of the Arsenal players which should pump up their own players, but ultimately there is some difference in quality here.
I don't imagine the Arsenal players will have been dwelling on the result in Bayern Munich too much (just an outward appearance I get from many of their players) and so they should come out with their usual game plan in place. Over the course of 90 minutes, the Arsenal quality should be too much for Sutton United to contain and I think The Gunners will overcome the Asian Handicap.
Even a changed Arsenal team should contain enough about them to see off Sutton United and I am expecting them to win by a wide margin after weathering an early storm.
Barnsley v Brighton Pick: This is a really tough game for Brighton as they have just hit a rough patch of form and are now beginning to feel the heat from the teams below them in the Championship. After spending such a long time in the automatic promotion places, Chris Hughton will be aware of the mental effort it would take to try and earn promotion through the Play Offs and has to right the Brighton ship as soon as possible.
No one gets an easy ride in Barnsley though even if the home team have been inconsistent at Oakwell in the League. They have had some memorable wins in the League here, but Barnsley have also lost their fair share of games and it is tough to work out which version of their team will turn up.
Will be see the Barnsley who just hammered Aston Villa away from home or the one that were comfortably beaten by Wolves here a couple of weeks ago?
The one encouragement the home team have to have is seeing the amount of goals Brighton have been conceding in recent away games. Brighton have not had a clean sheet in their last 7 away from home in all competitions and they have conceded 15 goals in those games which is a concern when facing the fifth highest scoring home team in the Championship.
Brighton do score too and that should mean we are in for a decent game on Saturday and one that could produce at least three goals. The three points are important enough for both teams to think neither will settle to defend and both managers have shown a liking for attacking football so backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against looks a decent price.
Burton Albion v Norwich City Pick: Playing at The Pirelli Stadium was a really difficult test earlier in the season, but the season has been wearing on the Burton Albion players. Goals continue to be a problem and they only recently snapped a pretty long losing run in front of their own fans in the League.
It might be equalled out by the poor form Norwich City have shown away from home for much of the season. The last few weeks had been particularly tough, but the last two performances at Cardiff City and Wigan Athletic will have been encouraging.
The issues defensively continue to blight Norwich City though and that will give Burton Albion some hope. In the 2-2 draw at Wigan Athletic, Norwich City looked miles better than Wigan Athletic for the first 45 minutes before allowing their hosts to fight back and that does make it difficult to trust them here.
However the top teams have generally found a way to get it done here and recent games have seen Huddersfield Town, Newcastle United and Fulham all win here. Brighton also won here earlier in the season and all of Norwich City's away wins in the League have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.
It won't be easy for Alex Neil's team, but I will back Norwich City to keep the pressure on the top six by earning a vital three points at Burton Albion this weekend.
Cardiff City v Rotherham United Pick: There has to be some real confidence flowing through the Cardiff City players after coming from 2-0 down to beat Derby County 3-4 at The iPro Stadium during the week. That follows on from another impressive win at Leeds United last weekend and now they return home where they had been playing pretty well in recent weeks.
Being matched up against Rotherham United this weekend certainly feels like it is giving Cardiff City a big chance to continue the momentum from their away wins earlier this week.
There is a lot of willing in the Rotherham United dressing room but the quality has just not been there for them this season. They will be looking to make life awkward for teams who have plenty more to play for than The Millers the rest of the season, and Rotherham United showed they can do that in a narrow home loss to promotion chasing Huddersfield Town during the week.
Rotherham United put a lot of effort into that game without reward which may have dented their belief even more, while a lack of goals away from home is a concern. The side don't do clean sheets and Cardiff City have beaten the likes of struggling Aston Villa and Burton Albion at home in recent weeks.
Half of the last 6 League games won by Cardiff City have come with a clean sheet and I think they can do that here. Prior to the 0-1 loss to Norwich City, Cardiff City had won 3 in a row at home with a clean sheet too and I will back them to do that this weekend at a big price.
Ipswich Town v Leeds United Pick: The improved form for Ipswich Town coupled with the Leeds United slide in form could mean there is a chance for another dent in the promotion bid for the latter.
The oddsmakers have found it tough to separate these teams, but I do feel they are taking a chance with the price for at least three goals to be shared out. Goals have been flowing at both ends in recent Ipswich Town games which have seen the last 5 at Portman Road feature at least three goals.
Ipswich Town have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 here, while the away team has scored at least 4 times in a row at Portman Road.
Usually that would mean Leeds United games have been on the lower-scoring side, but 4 of their last 5 in the League on their travels have also featured at least three goals. Late goals have contributed to that, but Leeds United and Ipswich Town should be pushing for the points very late into the game so I am not anticipating a tight, tense game.
Fixtures between Ipswich Town and Leeds United have tended to be higher-scoring at this ground too with the last 6 all featuring at least three goals shared out. I think both teams will likely score in this one, but with both pushing for the three points I can also see a late goal turning this in favour of one of them.
Either way I don't mind as long as they can cover the goal line at what looks a very big price.
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: There were so many goals in the Championship during the midweek round of games and this weekend could surprise the layers. They have offered a big price in the Ipswich Town versus Leeds United game to see three goals and are doing the same in this fixture too.
That might have a lot to do with how Sheffield Wednesday have played at both ends of the field, but they have brought in reinforcements to strengthen in forward areas. I am anticipating the likes of Jordan Rhodes to really help Sheffield Wednesday produce more goals and I think they will have chances here.
However Nottingham Forest are much stronger at home than on their travels and I expect they can play a part too having scored five goals in their last 3 home games. Prior to the 0-1 win at Wigan Athletic, Sheffield Wednesday had been involved in 3 straight away games that featured at least three goals and I think the same can happen here.
At this stage of the season, three points are so important to both teams that I don't expect either to settle back and look for a draw and that could mean a surprisingly high scoring game. The oddsmakers don't agree but I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
MY PICKS: Burnley Win to Nil @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Oxford United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Millwall-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fulham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cardiff City Win to Nil @ 2.62 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ipswich Town-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nottingham Forest-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Derby County somehow blew a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 at home to Cardiff City and Athletic Bilbao conceded late which meant they missed the Asian Handicap cover in a 3-2 win over APOEL. If both of those go my way, I am back into a positive for February, but instead I have made a big dent in the totals from last weekend.
Another penalty miss hurt in the Benfica-Borussia Dortmund Champions League Last 16 First Leg on Tuesday- I have lost count of the amount of penalty misses in games where I am backing goals but that is another to add to the list as it came with half an hour to go and the game set to move to 1-1 on the scoreboard.
So while I did have a winning midweek, I should have had one which turned things right around and really got the month back on track. Hopefully I will be able to build on that momentum this weekend as the FA Cup Fifth Round and Championship takes centre stage before the Premier League resumes next weekend.
Before that there will be another busy midweek of Champions League, Europa League and domestic football in the lower Leagues to come. Both Manchester City and Leicester City will have their Last 16 First Legs in the Champions League during the week, while Tottenham Hotspur are trying to turn around a 1-0 First Leg loss in the Europa League.
I am pretty confident Manchester United have already done enough to move into the Last 16 because I think they will score out in St-Etienne and the draw will be made next Friday for the Last 16 when country protections are set aside.
Burnley v Lincoln City Pick: You can't take anything for granted in football, but Burnley have to feel they are well on their way to avoiding relegation from the Premier League with 13 League games to play. The form at Turf Moor has been incredibly good all season and Burnley have used that to move onto 30 points with 29 points being earned at home.
That should mean Sean Dyche can play a strong team in a bid to help Burnley put an exclamation mark on the season by continuing their run in the FA Cup. With a week to prepare for this game and another week before Burnley are due to play again, not playing a strong team would be really disappointing as Burnley are very close to playing at Wembley Stadium.
The form this season should also mean Burnley fear no team left in the FA Cup, especially with many of them having other priorities, and I think the right draw can take Burnley all the way to the Final. It won't be an easy ride, but Burnley have to be very pleased with their Fifth Round draw as they take on one of the two non-League teams left in the FA Cup and at home.
Lincoln City have to be respected, but this is a huge challenge for the National League leaders who are being challenged for promotion and have a big game on Tuesday night. Players at this level won't want to 'rest' for that game at North Ferriby United, but this is still a huge step up from their usual level of opponents.
Burnley have been winning plenty of games at Turf Moor and played so well against Chelsea that only complacency will prevent them moving through. I don't think Dyche does complacency though and I expect Burnley to work hard and give Lincoln City all the respect in the world.
I would be surprised if it is a really comfortable day for Burnley because Lincoln City will be up for it, but eventually you would imagine the home team are too strong. Burnley don't concede many goals here and have only conceded 2 goals in their last 7 home games in all competitions. They have won both home games in the FA Cup with a clean sheet and I will back them at odds against to do that in the Fifth Round too and end the dream run for The Imps.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester City Pick: You have to think that both David Wagner and Pep Guardiola are looking ahead to a much bigger game on Tuesday despite being in the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend. For Manchester City clearly the Champions League Last 16 First Leg against Monaco is the one they will be really looking forward to, while Huddersfield Town have a huge game against Reading in the Championship with the winner potentially being in a good position to secure automatic promotion to the Premier League.
With that in mind I am expecting both managers to shuffle the pack in this one and trying to work out the starting line ups is far from easy.
It should make this Fifth Round tie a fairly open one too as neither Huddersfield Town nor Manchester City will want a Replay in ten days time. Both teams are much more comfortable going forward than they are defending and I am not surprised that the layers have priced up at least three goals to be shared out at a pretty short price.
In saying that, I am a little more surprised that both teams to score is a much bigger price than there being at least three goals overall. I understand Manchester City are capable of covering these numbers themselves, but I actually considered backing Huddersfield Town with the start on the Handicap if they did not have such a big fixture next up on deck.
Manchester City do have 3 clean sheets in a row away from home and in 5 of their last 7 on their travels overall, but there could be changes made by Guardiola in this one which will give the home team encouragement. This is a team in Huddersfield Town who have been very good going forward all season anyway and I do think they will pose problems, although they do have to be better defensively.
Overall there looks a real chance for both teams to play their part in this Fifth Round tie before all is said and done and I will back both to score in an entertaining afternoon.
Middlesbrough v Oxford United Pick: There is no doubt that Middlesbrough are firmly in the mix of a relegation battle in the Premier League and the problem has been a lack of goals. Defensively they have been very good for the most part, but the pressure is definitely on for Middlesbrough in the coming weeks.
For this weekend they can put aside Premier League concerns and try and beat a third lower League team in the FA Cup and move onto the Sixth Round next month. Middlesbrough are unsurprisingly the favourites to win the tie against Oxford United of League One, especially as they are hosting it, but I wouldn't want to underestimate the visitors who have 'nothing to lose'.
Oxford United will look to play their football and see if they can build some pressure on the struggling Premier League side, while they have previous having beaten Swansea City of the Premier League and Newcastle United of the Championship in the last fourteen months in the FA Cup. Both of those wins have come at home though and it is a big ask for Oxford United to stun Middlesbrough here.
The U's have scored in their last 7 away games in all competitions though and I expect that is an issue for Middlesbrough who have not been as watertight at the back in recent weeks as they were a month ago. They are still very good at home though and both FA Cup games have been won with a clean sheet against Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington Stanley, but I do anticipate Oxford United causing a few more problems.
Middlesbrough did score three times in their win over Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup Third Round and did the same to Swansea City in the League. With that in mind I can see both teams playing their part in a lively Cup tie on Saturday and I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out.
It wouldn't surprise me if a changed Middlesbrough team conceded, but they should still be too strong over the course of 90 minutes and I expect they will get through. The Cup being as it is, a late goal may see this number surpassed and I am backing goals.
Millwall v Leicester City Pick: After such a memorable 2016, 2017 is shaping up to be a really difficult season for Leicester City. Their priority is now finding a way to reverse momentum and secure their place in the Premier League for next season, but Claudio Ranieri has one FA Cup game and one Champions League game to negotiate before The Foxes return to Premier League action.
It would be a real surprise if Ranieri did not make wholesale changes to his Leicester City starting eleven following the 2-0 loss at Swansea City last weekend, and that gives Millwall the chance to take a hat-trick of Premier League scalps. Millwall have already beaten Bournemouth and Watford in the FA Cup here and there is every chance that they can take out a much changed Leicester City team and move a game away from playing at Wembley Stadium in the Cup Semi Final.
I have to admit I was tempted to back Millwall to win this game, but Leicester City's fringe players have performed well in the FA Cup at Everton and at home against Derby County. They still have plenty of speed in forward areas which can be tough for a League One side to deal with and South London's weather won't have produced a great equaliser with the pitch condition either.
Millwall are in fine form and have kept 5 clean sheets in a row which includes in both games in the FA Cup against Premier League opposition. That made the home team appealing, and Leicester City's goal drought in the Premier League is well documented.
However, the changes made in the FA Cup have seen Leicester City score 5 times in their 3 Cup games and I can see both teams creating their chances in this one. The oddsmakers are not anticipating a free flowing game, but I think it might surprise with both Millwall and Leicester City looking to win the tie without the need for a Replay.
At a fairly big price, I am going to back this to be another Cup tie where there are at least three goals shared out.
Wolves v Chelsea Pick: It is hard to second guess some of the teams that managers will put out in the FA Cup, but it would make very little sense for Antonio Conte to rest players just three games out from the Cup Final. There are only two competitions in which Chelsea are involved the rest of this season and they have a very good lead in the Premier League that I am expecting a very strong side to be picked.
There will be some changes, but the formation will likely be the same as usual and the biggest concern for Chelsea in this game is that Wolves produce something close to the level they did at Anfield. That Wolves team has not been seen too often since the win at Liverpool in the Fourth Round and they have actually looked pretty poor in the last couple of weeks as Wolves have slipped back into a potential relegation battle.
The win at Liverpool also came against a changed home team who were going through a really difficult patch, but this Chelsea team are playing much better. Draws at Liverpool and Burnley in their last couple of away games shouldn't be a real concern for Antonio Conte as they could easily have won both on another day, but Chelsea do have to be at their best to get a result here.
There is enough talent in the Premier League leaders' squad that they should be good enough to come away from Wolves with the win without the need for a replay. I am anticipating the likes of Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Willian to start in the forward positions and that should be enough to beat Wolves.
Chelsea are not conceding a lot of goals and even a couple of changes might not affect them here. They can pick off a Wolves team that is potentially chasing an equaliser late in the game and finish off the tie and I like Chelsea to win this by a couple of goals at odds against.
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The television cameras will pitch up to Craven Cottage on Sunday and Tottenham Hotspur have been set as the odds on favourites to win here. I really can't understand that considering recent form that both Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur have displayed and I am going to back the home team to avoid defeat at the least.
That won't be easy for Fulham as they try and raise their level to take on a Premier League side currently in the top three of that Division. However the game is being played at Craven Cottage and Tottenham Hotspur have shown they have not been as strong on their travels as they have been at White Hart Lane.
A lack of goals in the last couple of weeks has to concern Mauricio Pochettino while this game comes at an awkward time in the football calendar for Tottenham Hotspur. They played on Thursday night in Belgium and the home game with Gent next week in the Second Leg is clearly the more important game for Pochettino if you consider the team he put out in the First Leg.
That does make me think that Tottenham Hotspur will make a number of changes to their first team which almost cost them against Wycombe Wanderers in the Fourth Round. On the other hand I would think a much more recognisable Fulham XI to start this game and they look a good shout at odds against to at least force a Replay.
I did consider backing at least four goals to be shared out, but Tottenham Hotspur's struggles in front of goal do concern me, especially if both Dele Alli and Harry Kane are left out of the starting eleven. Fulham have shown they can score plenty of goals at Craven Cottage in recent weeks and two goals could potentially be enough to secure the upset. I will stick with backing the home team on the Asian Handicap in this one.
Blackburn Rovers v Manchester United Pick: There have been times that I have expected Manchester United to rest players in their Cup games and use the squad, but Jose Mourinho continues to pick his strongest players where possible. He has tended to make the majority of his changes in the FA Cup so far and the admittance that he will play a strong team at St-Etienne on Wednesday night suggests this is the game where others will be given a chance to shine.
This might not be the strongest Manchester United squad of the last twenty years, but it is definitely one with depth and is improving. Even if the starting eleven is not as familiar as it could be, Manchester United have the players that should be too good for a Blackburn Rovers team who are struggling at the wrong end of the Championship.
I can't imagine too many who started on Thursday being involved here, but the likes of Jesse Lingard, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney should still be good enough to beat a team of Blackburn Rovers standard. That is no disrespect to Blackburn Rovers who have played well at Ewood Park in recent weeks and beaten Newcastle United here, but they are not 23rd in the Championship by fluke with almost three-quarters of the season played.
There is no doubt the game at Burton Albion next Friday is the far bigger game for Blackburn Rovers and the fans are more likely to be protesting against the owners than backing the players. That is an issue at the moment and I am not sure Ewood Park is a pitch where Blackburn Rovers can make life difficult for Manchester United, but instead is one where the Premier League team can play their football.
Manchester United have been very strong in the Cup competitions this season but the majority of their best performances have been at Old Trafford, which is in contrast to the Premier League where Manchester United have been very effective on their travels. The side have lost 3 of their 5 away Cup games this season, but Manchester United have won the other 2 by a couple of goals each time and I will back that to happen here.
Jose Mourinho is right that a fixture backlog is developing for Manchester United, but this is a manager who insists they win every game they play and I expect Manchester United to reach the Sixth Round of the FA Cup at the first attempt. I will back them to win at Ewood Park by a couple of goals at odds against.
Sutton United v Arsenal Pick: A defeat at Sutton United for Arsenal would be one of the biggest upsets in arguably any football game played around the world, but in reality this is probably the perfect chance for the Arsenal players to bounce back from the disappointment of Munich last Wednesday.
They have had time to recover physically and Arsenal will not play again until Saturday 4th March following this one so Arsene Wenger will have a number of his recognisable players out on the field. It has been a good period of weather in and around Sutton United too so the pitch should be in perfect condition once the Arsenal players get used to the bounce on an artificial surface.
Of course Sutton United should have a very strong work ethic and the fans will be on top of the Arsenal players which should pump up their own players, but ultimately there is some difference in quality here.
I don't imagine the Arsenal players will have been dwelling on the result in Bayern Munich too much (just an outward appearance I get from many of their players) and so they should come out with their usual game plan in place. Over the course of 90 minutes, the Arsenal quality should be too much for Sutton United to contain and I think The Gunners will overcome the Asian Handicap.
Even a changed Arsenal team should contain enough about them to see off Sutton United and I am expecting them to win by a wide margin after weathering an early storm.
Barnsley v Brighton Pick: This is a really tough game for Brighton as they have just hit a rough patch of form and are now beginning to feel the heat from the teams below them in the Championship. After spending such a long time in the automatic promotion places, Chris Hughton will be aware of the mental effort it would take to try and earn promotion through the Play Offs and has to right the Brighton ship as soon as possible.
No one gets an easy ride in Barnsley though even if the home team have been inconsistent at Oakwell in the League. They have had some memorable wins in the League here, but Barnsley have also lost their fair share of games and it is tough to work out which version of their team will turn up.
Will be see the Barnsley who just hammered Aston Villa away from home or the one that were comfortably beaten by Wolves here a couple of weeks ago?
The one encouragement the home team have to have is seeing the amount of goals Brighton have been conceding in recent away games. Brighton have not had a clean sheet in their last 7 away from home in all competitions and they have conceded 15 goals in those games which is a concern when facing the fifth highest scoring home team in the Championship.
Brighton do score too and that should mean we are in for a decent game on Saturday and one that could produce at least three goals. The three points are important enough for both teams to think neither will settle to defend and both managers have shown a liking for attacking football so backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against looks a decent price.
Burton Albion v Norwich City Pick: Playing at The Pirelli Stadium was a really difficult test earlier in the season, but the season has been wearing on the Burton Albion players. Goals continue to be a problem and they only recently snapped a pretty long losing run in front of their own fans in the League.
It might be equalled out by the poor form Norwich City have shown away from home for much of the season. The last few weeks had been particularly tough, but the last two performances at Cardiff City and Wigan Athletic will have been encouraging.
The issues defensively continue to blight Norwich City though and that will give Burton Albion some hope. In the 2-2 draw at Wigan Athletic, Norwich City looked miles better than Wigan Athletic for the first 45 minutes before allowing their hosts to fight back and that does make it difficult to trust them here.
However the top teams have generally found a way to get it done here and recent games have seen Huddersfield Town, Newcastle United and Fulham all win here. Brighton also won here earlier in the season and all of Norwich City's away wins in the League have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.
It won't be easy for Alex Neil's team, but I will back Norwich City to keep the pressure on the top six by earning a vital three points at Burton Albion this weekend.
Cardiff City v Rotherham United Pick: There has to be some real confidence flowing through the Cardiff City players after coming from 2-0 down to beat Derby County 3-4 at The iPro Stadium during the week. That follows on from another impressive win at Leeds United last weekend and now they return home where they had been playing pretty well in recent weeks.
Being matched up against Rotherham United this weekend certainly feels like it is giving Cardiff City a big chance to continue the momentum from their away wins earlier this week.
There is a lot of willing in the Rotherham United dressing room but the quality has just not been there for them this season. They will be looking to make life awkward for teams who have plenty more to play for than The Millers the rest of the season, and Rotherham United showed they can do that in a narrow home loss to promotion chasing Huddersfield Town during the week.
Rotherham United put a lot of effort into that game without reward which may have dented their belief even more, while a lack of goals away from home is a concern. The side don't do clean sheets and Cardiff City have beaten the likes of struggling Aston Villa and Burton Albion at home in recent weeks.
Half of the last 6 League games won by Cardiff City have come with a clean sheet and I think they can do that here. Prior to the 0-1 loss to Norwich City, Cardiff City had won 3 in a row at home with a clean sheet too and I will back them to do that this weekend at a big price.
Ipswich Town v Leeds United Pick: The improved form for Ipswich Town coupled with the Leeds United slide in form could mean there is a chance for another dent in the promotion bid for the latter.
The oddsmakers have found it tough to separate these teams, but I do feel they are taking a chance with the price for at least three goals to be shared out. Goals have been flowing at both ends in recent Ipswich Town games which have seen the last 5 at Portman Road feature at least three goals.
Ipswich Town have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 here, while the away team has scored at least 4 times in a row at Portman Road.
Usually that would mean Leeds United games have been on the lower-scoring side, but 4 of their last 5 in the League on their travels have also featured at least three goals. Late goals have contributed to that, but Leeds United and Ipswich Town should be pushing for the points very late into the game so I am not anticipating a tight, tense game.
Fixtures between Ipswich Town and Leeds United have tended to be higher-scoring at this ground too with the last 6 all featuring at least three goals shared out. I think both teams will likely score in this one, but with both pushing for the three points I can also see a late goal turning this in favour of one of them.
Either way I don't mind as long as they can cover the goal line at what looks a very big price.
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: There were so many goals in the Championship during the midweek round of games and this weekend could surprise the layers. They have offered a big price in the Ipswich Town versus Leeds United game to see three goals and are doing the same in this fixture too.
That might have a lot to do with how Sheffield Wednesday have played at both ends of the field, but they have brought in reinforcements to strengthen in forward areas. I am anticipating the likes of Jordan Rhodes to really help Sheffield Wednesday produce more goals and I think they will have chances here.
However Nottingham Forest are much stronger at home than on their travels and I expect they can play a part too having scored five goals in their last 3 home games. Prior to the 0-1 win at Wigan Athletic, Sheffield Wednesday had been involved in 3 straight away games that featured at least three goals and I think the same can happen here.
At this stage of the season, three points are so important to both teams that I don't expect either to settle back and look for a draw and that could mean a surprisingly high scoring game. The oddsmakers don't agree but I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
MY PICKS: Burnley Win to Nil @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Oxford United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Millwall-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fulham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cardiff City Win to Nil @ 2.62 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ipswich Town-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nottingham Forest-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
February Update: 16-22, - 6.80 Units (72 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 212-232-9, - 28.11 Units (872 Units Staked, - 3.22% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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