All of the top managers in the Premier League have been speaking about the final week of fixtures before the next international break and finding the right balance to keep their players fresh for the months ahead.
September has been a loaded month, but looking ahead to December shows how difficult it can be for managers to make the changes but continue to produce the wins.
That's ahead though and the focus for all of the top teams in the Premier League and around the top European Leagues is finding a way to produce three wins over the next eight days to ensure happy faces going into the international break. It is the time of the season when things begin to take shape in the Leagues with at least six League games played in all of the top European Leagues and this is not the time when teams want to get too far behind the leaders.
The next week is important for the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal to just keep in touch with the other three clubs that made up the top six last season especially for the former two clubs. They have difficult looking October fixtures coming up which means falling behind now puts the pressure on Liverpool and Spurs to win bigger games next month or risk being out of the title race by Christmas.
It is the pressure these clubs and managers are dealing with all the time with a busy European schedule set during the week as Match Day 2 of the Group Stages of both Champions League and Europa League are played.
After the fixtures next weekend I am looking to write down a few thoughts about the start to the season for Manchester United and have that ready to go before the World Cup Qualifiers begin the following Thursday. It has been an exciting time for the United fans around the world, but this next week is critical to set them up for what is a rough set of games to come between the next two international breaks.
That is for another day and something to look out for in around ten days time.
Last weekend was the worst one I have had in the 2017/18 season so far as almost nothing went the way I thought it might. Players missing easy chances didn't help my cause, but it was a frustrating weekend and means the remaining three rounds of games this month are important to get things turned back around.
Hopefully this weekend there will be more luck behind me than there was last weekend.
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The opening game of this Premier League weekend is always a big fixture as West Ham United host Tottenham Hotspur in what is a rivalry game. There is no love lost between the fans and the players at West Ham United certainly seem like they raise their game when they see Tottenham Hotspur come to town.
Arguably the best result that West Ham United have had in their new London Stadium came towards the end of last season when they beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 here. This has been a fixture The Hammers have enjoyed in recent years with 3 wins from the last 4 games where they have hosted Spurs and they were also unfortunate to lose 3-2 at White Hart Lane last season.
Tottenham Hotspur have talent in the final third and they have won both away Premier League games they have played this season. Both have come comfortably at Newcastle United and Everton, but this West Ham United team have showed better form in recent games with just a single loss from their last 5 in all competitions.
My worry for West Ham United has to be the heavy losses they suffered to Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool in home games in the League last season. They were more competitive in a loss to Chelsea, and did beat Tottenham Hotspur, but this is also a side that have been beaten easily at Manchester United and Newcastle United this season.
However I do think West Ham United 'get up' for the visit of Tottenham Hotspur and I expect they can cause problems. As well as Tottenham Hotspur have played away from home in the League, this has proven to be a tough fixture for them, although Spurs have to be respected for winning at least 9 of 19 away League games in each of the last three seasons.
Tottenham Hotspur should win here, but they look very short when you consider how they have played against West Ham United in recent years. The improved performances of the home team in the last couple of weeks has to give them confidence though and I think West Ham United can keep this competitive.
West Ham United have defended a little better with the new formation being employed and that may make up for the loss of James Collins. Backing The Hammers with the start on the Asian Handicap in a game where they have every chance of earning the result and also returns stake with a narrow loss is the way to go in this one in my opinion.
Burnley v Huddersfield Town Pick: This has to be the kind of fixture that both Burnley and Huddersfield Town have circled as one where they can't afford to drop points. For Sean Dyche it is perhaps one that Burnley would have targeted for the maximum points and it should be an interesting afternoon in the North West this weekend.
In the last few months it has been more difficult for Burnley to produce the wins at Turf Moor as shown by 2 wins from their last 10 here in all competitions. They were beaten on penalties by Leeds United during the week and Burnley were perhaps a little fortunate when beating Crystal Palace here a couple of weeks ago.
However they are facing Huddersfield Town who have just hit a wall over the last month with losses at West Ham United and Crystal Palace and this has to be seen as a big chance for Burnley to move a quarter of the way to the 40 point mark they are targeting.
Huddersfield Town were really poor when beaten at West Ham United recently and the fast start they have made is important considering the fixtures upcoming for The Terriers. David Wagner will be expecting a better performance in this away game, but Huddersfield Town have lost 3 of their last 4 visits to Turf Moor and I am leaning towards Burnley earning the victory.
It is hard to go in on Burnley for more than the minimum unit simply because they have not been firing on all cylinders at Turf Moor in recent months. Giving up the same chances they did against Crystal Palace two weeks ago will give Huddersfield Town every chance for another away success in the Premier League, but I think Sean Dyche can motivate his squad to a victory.
This feels like it will be a tight game, but I will back Burnley to find the way to the three points although I will keep the stakes down to a minimum.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: Roy Hodgson has been given a difficult task to turn around Crystal Palace's form and ensure they are in a position to survive in the Premier League for another season. The 0-1 home loss to Southampton is a blow when you think they are heading to Manchester City and Manchester United before the home game with Chelsea.
Crystal Palace did beat Huddersfield Town in the League Cup during the week but Hodgson will be looking to make the side tougher to beat in the coming weeks.
That is going to be put to the test by a rampant Manchester City side who have won 5 in a row in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun in that time. They have already scored seventeen goals in 4 games in September and Manchester City will be confident they can create the chances in this one to add to that tally.
Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and Sergio Aguero were all rested during the week when Manchester City beat West Brom 1-2 in the League Cup Third Round, and those players have all been in very good form throughout this month. With Aguero and Gabriel Jesus in the final third, Manchester City will certainly feel they can continue scoring at the rate they have been.
It might not be easy against a Crystal Palace team who have lost their last 3 of their last 4 Premier League games by the same 1-0 scoreline. That includes in back to back away games at Liverpool and Burnley, but Crystal Palace are still working on their defensive shapes under Hodgson which could be a problem at the Etihad Stadium.
This has not been a great ground for Crystal Palace to visit having conceded seventeen goals in their last 4 visits to the Etihad Stadium. They have lost all of those games by at least a three goal margin and Manchester City were 5-0 winners over Crystal Palace last season.
Manchester City only won 2 of their 19 home games in the Premier League by three or more goals last season, but they have done that once already in the 2017/18 season. That is a concern with the Asian Handicap that has been set in this game, but Manchester City have been in very good form and have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace at home.
An early goal will be important for Manchester City to just open the game up in this one, but this is a team that has options off the bench and look very confident. There is plenty of momentum behind Manchester City at the moment and I think they will prove too strong for Crystal Palace and record a comfortable win on the day.
Crystal Palace have suffered a couple of narrow losses away from home in the League this season, but this is as difficult challenge as you can face in the Premier League at this moment. All of the pressure is likely to come from Manchester City and that should see them create enough chances for the likes of Aguero and Jesus to make hay and produce another big win for the club.
Southampton v Manchester United Pick: As much as most Manchester United fans have to be excited about the start made to the new season, realistic fans have to accept that the fixture list has been kind enough to take advantage of. That was an issue for them last season though so there has been improvements made, but Jose Mourinho knows the importance of continuing to make hay while the sun is shining before bigger tests ahead in October and November.
This is a fixture that looks difficult on paper with the inconsistent Southampton team capable of raising their game to challenge the best teams in the Division. They showed that with a really strong performance in the League Cup Final before ultimately coming up short against Manchester United, but hosting this team has been more difficult for them.
Manchester United had won 7 of 8 visits to Southampton before the goalless draw here at the end of last season. With the home team expected to be a little more positive going forward at St Mary's, Manchester United have found the counter attack to be very effective in visits to this ground and that has seen them earn the edge which has led to wins more often than not in recent years.
The current squad has proven they can be very good on the counter attack and defensively Manchester United have looked strong barring a couple of really loose mistakes at Stoke City. Mourinho has to think his side are capable of at least restricting the chances that goal-shy Southampton are able to create here and doing that will give Manchester United every chance of earning a vital three points.
The lack of goals may have contributed to Southampton losing to 4 of the top 5 at home last season. In fact Southampton scored just 1 goal against the top 6 at St Mary's last season and that has to have been a real factor in the prices for Manchester United to win here.
Mourinho's Manchester United beat 10 of the 14 teams that finished below them in the Premier League table when playing them away from home. I will look for Manchester United to earn the three points here and look to use this as the beginning of a strong final week in September.
Stoke City v Chelsea Pick: The results for Stoke City have been decent at home when you think they have beaten Arsenal and drawn with Manchester United, but I don't think they were that impressive in either game. In fact I am convinced Manchester United would have won here if they had held onto the 1-2 lead for a few more minutes than they did, while Arsenal created plenty of chances throughout the ninety minutes but somehow failed to score.
Respect has to be given to Stoke City for the fact they have scored in both games though which will make them difficult to beat. This weekend they will fancy their chances against a Chelsea defence that is missing David Luiz, but Kurt Zouma will be absent for Stoke City which should give Chelsea their opportunities too.
The layers are very much behind a Chelsea win and I do favour The Blues even if I think it may be a tighter game than the oddsmakers do. This is a Chelsea side that have not been as watertight at the back as they were for large stretches of last season and they have not had a chance to play a settled back three which may have contributed to that.
That is the case again this weekend and Chelsea have conceded in both away games at Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City played in the Premier League. Stoke City have shown they can cause problems for the big clubs when hosting them as Tottenham Hotspur were the only club in the top six that came away with a clean sheet from this ground.
Stoke City have continued that against Arsenal and Manchester United this season, but Chelsea should also have plenty of moments with a returning Eden Hazard expected to be restored to the starting line up.
Both teams may get on the scoreboard on this one, but I am still leaning towards a Chelsea win. There have been plenty of chances created in both Stoke City home games this season and Chelsea have been involved in two high-scoring away games in the League too.
Recent games between Stoke City and Chelsea have not featured a lot of goals at this ground, but last season there were three shared out and I can see that being the case again here. With both teams likely to try and get on the front foot and a couple of key players missing in defence, one on each side, and I think there will be enough opportunity in front of goals to back at least three goals to be shared out.
Swansea City v Watford Pick: There have been plenty of inconsistent results in the Premier League this season which may have something to do with the fact that so many teams that are expected to battle against relegation are much more evenly balanced than in previous seasons.
Swansea City highlight the inconsistencies of teams lower down the League table and they do look tough to back as the favourites in this one. The side have been decent at the Liberty Stadium under Paul Clement which may account for the price this week, although the 0-1 loss to Newcastle United at a similar price a couple of weeks ago has to be a concern.
Another factor may be the 0-6 home defeat suffered by Watford against Manchester City last weekend. That was a stunning result, but Marco Silva will know there are many teams who will take a battering from Manchester City in the form they have been in over the last coupe of weeks.
Silva's Watford team have been playing pretty well in the Premier League prior to that defeat to Manchester City. Wins at Bournemouth and Southampton came behind two very strong away performances from Watford and I do think they are a dangerous team who could perhaps be more effective away from home against teams of a similar level.
Watford also have a decent record against Swansea City in recent fixtures having won 2 and drawn 2 of the last 5 against them. They have scored goals away from home which makes them a threat in this one when you consider that Swansea City are still trying to find their feet in the final third without Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente.
With that in mind I think Watford can be backed with the start on Saturday at the Liberty Stadium. Some may take the draw when you think 3 of the last 4 have ended in stalemate, but Watford's recent away performances make them the more likely winner in my opinion so backing The Hornets on the Asian Handicap is the pick from this fixture.
Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: Anyone who watched the first half of the Leicester City League Cup victory over Liverpool will have been wondering how the game turned as much as it did in the second half. If Liverpool had been leading by two or three goals at half time it may have reflected the first half best, but they were not as effective in the second half.
Much of that will be down to the front three missing Roberto Firmino, Mohammed Salah and Philippe Coutinho, but all three should be involved on Saturday evening. Sadio Mane remains suspended, but a much more familiar Liverpool starting line up will be hoping to make more of the chances they are likely to create here.
Craig Shakespeare could have a better game plan in place having seen the Liverpool style of play first hand on Tuesday, but the majority of the possession is likely to come with Liverpool. A returning Jamie Vardy may give Leicester City a better out ball when they are under pressure, while the likes of Danny Simpson, Harry Maguire and Christian Fuchs should give Leicester City a better base from which to defend.
This has been a fixture the Leicester City players have enjoyed with 3 straight wins over Liverpool at the King Power Stadium, but they did ride their luck during the week. It is much harder to know how they can do that against Liverpool's first choice front three with the quality they clearly have in the final third, even if Mane remains a huge miss for The Reds.
Ultimately the Liverpool defence is going to hold them back from really achieving the kind of goals that the fans were hoping for under Klopp. That isn't to say he won't get that fixed with the players targeted, but whether Klopp gets the time depends on how well Liverpool perform this season with anything other than a top four finish likely not to be good enough without a Champions League trophy to show off.
Games like this one is where you feel Liverpool can be undone by the defence with the pace that Leicester City have as well as their ability from set pieces. However I am surprised that they are still the same price as they were to win here during the week in the League Cup after what was a really good performance before Coutinho was taken off.
Leicester City have been very good at home over the last couple of years with 22 Premier League wins in 40 games here. That coupled with the Leicester City home record against Liverpool has to be respected, but Leicester City were beaten by Chelsea recently and I think Liverpool have the talent to turn around their result from the League Cup tie during the week.
You have to think Liverpool can't miss the same sort of chances they created on Tuesday with the likes of Coutinho, Salah and Firmino back in the line up and I think they can win here. It won't be easy covering for the defensive mistakes they are likely to make, but Liverpool should be better prepared for what they face here and can make the almost odds against quote pay off.
Arsenal v West Brom Pick: August finished really badly for Arsenal but September has proved to be a much better month for Arsene Wenger and he will be keen to end it on a high. Games against West Brom and Brighton before the next international break does give Arsenal every chance of going into that with a lot of momentum behind them and the chance to close on the leading teams.
No one can take this match against West Brom for granted when you think how well The Baggies have started the season. They will also know that Tony Pulis is going to set up with a strong defensive base from which they will look to frustrate the hosts and so Arsenal have to take the chances that come their way.
This has been a fixture that Arsenal have enjoyed with 6 straight wins over West Brom at the Emirates Stadium. They also have a lot less issues facing Tony Pulis guided teams when they are hosting them rather than when they are visiting them and I think that is a real factor in this one.
Arsenal will also have the confidence of having won their last 9 games at the Emirates Stadium in all competitions including all 4 played this season. The Gunners have been firing much better here than on their travels and I do think they are going to be too good for West Brom on the night.
An early goal will be important for Arsenal to try and get West Brom out from the defensive shape they will be looking to employ for the first hour of this fixture. If Arsenal can do that, they should be comfortable on the night, and they have been playing with more confidence at the Emirates Stadium to think they will do that.
West Brom can make life difficult for teams, but I will look for Arsenal to win this one by a couple of goals on the night to keep the momentum of their performances in September behind them.
Derby County v Birmingham City Pick: Heading towards Christmas 2016, Birmingham City looked to be in a position to challenge for the top six places in the Championship under Gary Rowett after coming close the previous May to a Play Off spot. At that point ownership decided to sack Rowett and things have fallen off a cliff since then for Birmingham City.
They barely escaped relegation last season and now they have sacked Harry Redknapp after losing 6 in a row under his watch to drop back into the bottom three.
There are likely to be some envious eyes glanced from the away supporters into the home dugout even if Rowett has not made a great start to the season with Derby County. However he has been respected for the job he did at St Andrews, although Rowett's motivation to get one over on his former club has to be high.
Derby County have been much better at home than away from home so far this season with back to back wins here coming by comfortable margins. Facing a team who have lost all 4 away games should give Derby County the edge, although the change in manager may see a renewed effort from the players which can make Birmingham City dangerous.
In saying that, Derby County should still be too good for a side lacking some confidence even if the first goal is going to be critical for them. The Rams aren't exactly filled with confidence themselves so falling behind would be a tough situation to overcome but I think they have performed better at the iPro Stadium and can win this one.
Gary Rowett can motivate his players to do that and I will back them to win this fixture.
Preston North End v Millwall Pick: There is much to like about the start of the new season for both Preston North End and Millwall and that should mean two positive teams come into the latest League fixture they are going to play.
The difference may be the venue with Preston North End playing well at Deepdale and Millwall being a little more inconsistent when they have gone on their travels this season.
In saying that, I am not anticipating an easy game for either team when goals may come at a premium and that does give Millwall the chance to earn a result here. If they defend well they can trouble Preston North End who don't have a lot of goals in the side despite scoring three times in each of their last couple of fixtures.
Millwall just haven't been easy to dismiss when they have been playing in recent weeks, and they should have won at Queens Park Rangers. They were reduced to ten men before conceding more than one goal for the first time in an away game this season which shows how tough this could be for Preston North End.
However I do think the home team have played well enough to earn the victory at Deepdale. The respect for Millwall means I will recommend a minimum unit on this one, but I do think Preston North End at odds against can be chanced to earn another three points at home as they keep track with the leaders in the Division.
Sheffield Wednesday v Sheffield United Pick: After coming close to promotion in each of the last couple of years, Sheffield Wednesday fans may feel this is a year in which they have to get back into the Premier League or instead make a change in the manager's office.
That is a story for another day, the focus this weekend is all about getting the better of Sheffield United in the first Steel City derby in six seasons and it looks like it could be a good day of football.
Both Sheffield clubs have made a decent start to the new Championship season so searching for confidence shouldn't be an issue. Home form could be the key to the outcome in this one, but Sheffield Wednesday can't take anything for granted against a Sheffield United team who have won their last couple of away games in the League.
Goals have been an issue for Sheffield Wednesday in recent seasons, but they have looked decent enough in that department to open this campaign, especially at Hillsborough. The 2 away Sheffield United wins have also come against teams that are likely to be struggling this season and this is a much different sort of test for them against Sheffield Wednesday who should be challenging for promotion.
Derby games can be difficult to judge with the emotion and tension of the fixtures leading to different reactions from the players. Both teams should be highly motivated for this one, but I am leaning towards Sheffield Wednesday to create the chances to earn the three points in this one.
It's yet another Championship game that won't come easily for the victor, but I will back Sheffield Wednesday to come through for the three points at odds against.
MY PICKS: West Ham United + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley @ 2.15 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Stoke City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Preston North End @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Championship Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 22 September 2017
Friday, 15 September 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (September 15-17)
The first round of Champions League and Europa League Group games are now in the books and it has proved to be a good week for all of the English clubs that don't play in Liverpool.
Both Liverpool and Everton were the only teams that failed to win this week, but the two Manchester clubs, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Arsenal were all winners to make a good start to their individual Group campaigns.
The big story of the week looks to be about the 20,000 Koln supporters who came to the Emirates Stadium on Thursday and decided that many of them would buy tickets in the Arsenal stands. There has been a split in the opinion with some people suggesting the whole incident has been overhyped, while others think it is the biggest disgrace in years.
I'm torn- as a football fan I thought the Koln fans were brilliant and they didn't come to cause trouble, but on the other hand this arguably the most tribal of sports around the world which is why segregation is so important. In this case we were lucky to see the Koln supporters coming for a good time and to support their team, but other clubs have a much deeper hooligan side which would have caused massive problems for fans with families and so I can see both points of views.
The ramifications will go on throughout the next few weeks as UEFA come into things and more and more people write their opinion on the matter. It is likely that UEFA will come down hard on Arsenal and Koln, but it will be interesting if other clubs decide to follow the Koln fans route in the coming months ahead.
On Friday we have the return of the Premier League which culminates in two big games on Sunday as four of the top seven face one another. Games keep coming thick and fast in September in a busy month before the next international break which begins in early October and so this is already a time when rotation will be rife.
Next week we have the English League Cup where many managers will change their starting line ups and then we have another two rounds of domestic action around Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League.
Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: With Brighton earning promotion to the Premier League last season, there will be a few more south coast derby games to be played and this is the first of them this season. Brighton and Bournemouth may usually fight it out for the summer tourist season on the beaches, but there are an important three Premier League points on the line when they open up this weekend's action on Friday Night Football.
It is a big game for Bournemouth who are trying to earn their first points of the season having lost all 4 Premier League games. They were unfortunate to lose 1-2 against Manchester City in their last home game, but overall Bournemouth have not played that well and the 0-2 loss to Watford here was a particularly poor result.
They have won 14 of their 38 home Premier League games over the last couple of seasons though and Bournemouth have generally been better against the weaker teams in the Premier League. Last season Bournemouth won 9 out of 19 League games at home and 7 of those wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
I do think Bournemouth are better than what they have shown so far and I do expect this side to score goals, even if they have failed to get going on that front in the 2017/18 season. Underestimating Brighton shouldn't be an issue either as Brighton have earned 4 points so far and come into the game unbeaten in 3 in all competitions.
The win over West Brom last weekend will make Brighton feel they belong at this level and adds to the point they earned at Watford. However you have to wonder if this side has enough goals in the squad and that will be a challenge for them until January at least when Chris Hughton may be able to bring in some reinforcements.
The lack of goals may show up here even if Brighton have made up for that by looking a little more organised defensively. That does make them a dangerous opponent for Bournemouth who do allow teams the space to create chances against them, but I think this is ultimately the kind of game that Bournemouth should be winning.
It feels like a matter of time before Bournemouth find improvements in their results and a similar display to the one they produced against Manchester City should see that improvement begin here. Bournemouth have a decent home record against Brighton over the years and I will look for The Cherries to earn the three points on Friday.
The first goal will be crucial I feel, but I will look for Eddie Howe to find the right formula here and Bournemouth to win the fixture at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: There is going to be a real interest to see how Huddersfield Town bounce back from the disappointment of losing their first League game back in the top flight. We have seen many promoted clubs make strong starts to their Premier League seasons before hitting the wall following a loss and that is something David Wagner will be desperate to avoid.
No one will have any doubt of the importance of the home form for Huddersfield Town if they are going to surprisingly avoid an immediate return to the Championship. As much as they have earned the respect from their form in August, there is still a feeling that goals might be difficult to come by for The Terriers and that means relying on the defensive performances they have produced so far.
Conceding their first goals of the new season in the Premier League will have dented that confidence and I think Leicester City are a dangerous team for Huddersfield Town to face. With more expectation to get forward at home, Leicester City play the kind of away football that could see them threaten Huddersfield Town in this fixture with the pacy counter attack they employ.
Leicester City have played much better under Craig Shakespeare as they have gone back to the basics which saw them win 11 out of 19 away League games two seasons ago. They won 2 of their last 5 Premier League away games last season and should have won at Arsenal on the opening weekend of this one.
Goals haven't been a problem for Leicester City under Craig Shakespeare and I think this is a side that is better than their points suggest as they have been through a difficult start to the fixtures. With the talent they have on the counter, I can see Leicester City causing problems for Huddersfield Town in this one and I do think they are capable of winning here.
My fear for Huddersfield Town is that they will struggle to match the goals that Leicester City can produce and I will back the latter on the Asian Handicap which will return half a stake if the match does end in a draw.
Liverpool v Burnley Pick: Roy Keane was brutal in his assessment of what to expect from Liverpool this season when it comes to winning the biggest prizes, but his verdict has only been highlighted as a former Manchester United Captain in my opinion. Keane is far from the only one who has been heavily critical of the Liverpool defensive performances with former Liverpool players Jamie Carragher and Graeme Souness also making their disdain clear.
The poor defensive performances over the last week have really highlighted the problem for Liverpool having conceded 7 goals to Manchester City and Sevilla combined. However this weekend they are not facing a team with the same kind of quality in the final third and Liverpool have kept a couple of clean sheets at Anfield in the Premier League.
Missing Sadio Mane is a clear blow for Liverpool's attacking intent, especially as Philippe Coutinho looked short of match fitness in his cameo during the week against Sevilla. The Brazilian was welcomed back by the crowd, but Jurgen Klopp may decide to begin Daniel Sturridge rather than Coutinho in this one although Liverpool will still be really strong going forward.
They should cause problems for a Burnley side who will miss the presence of Tom Heaton in goal, although Sean Dyche's men have really played well so far this season. They may have ridden their luck to beat Crystal Palace last weekend, but Burnley have to be respected for the win at Chelsea and the draw at Tottenham Hotspur.
That is much better form than they had for much of last season away from home, although I have to give Burnley credit for at least being competitive. Only 5 of their 19 away games saw Burnley lose by more than a couple of goals and so this is a side that will be tough to beat.
However Liverpool are a rampant side at Anfield and the key for Burnley is to try and stay in the game early on. That may be difficult with a new goalkeeper between the sticks which may make them a little more edgy than if Heaton was there and I do think Liverpool may prove too strong.
9 of Liverpool's 12 home League wins came by more than a single goal margin and they have already thumped a poor Arsenal side at Anfield. This one will likely be tight at the end with Burnley expected to cause some problems going forward, but they will have to defend a lot better than they did against Crystal Palace and I will back Liverpool to win and cover the Asian Handicap even without Sadio Mane.
Watford v Manchester City Pick: This past week has shown what Manchester City can do when they turn on the style, although the win over Liverpool perhaps flattered them in what was a close game before Sadio Mane's sending off. On the other hand Manchester City were anything but flattered when hammering Dutch Champions Feyenoord 0-4 during the week in a game where they could have scored double that amount.
There are plenty of options for Pep Guardiola when it comes to picking his starting eleven, but his team should be fresh having coasted to the win on Wednesday. The last week has not been the most taxing for the players and so Manchester City are rightly set as big favourites to win here.
That might be disrespecting Watford who have played well under Marco Silva and look like they can cause problems for any team they face. Silva's Hull City also performed very well at home under his watch last season and Watford have already held Liverpool to a draw here this season.
Watford have not really competed against the top teams in previous seasons with a couple of exceptions to that rule. It is only a few months since they were hammered 0-5 by Manchester City on this ground, but the current Watford team look much more confident and are playing for their manager unlike their reaction on the final day of last season.
The Hornets have only failed to score in the game against Brighton when reduced to ten men very early on, but I think they can cause Manchester City one or two problems in this one. I certainly expect more positive attacking intention than Feyenoord produced and Watford will have seen how Bournemouth gave Pep Guardiola's men difficulties.
Expect this Watford team to look to take advantage of the counter attack with some pace in the forward areas and I do think they are capable of breaching the Manchester City back line. Set pieces will also be important for them, although it is hard to imagine Watford keeping Manchester City from scoring here too.
Marco Silva's teams have been strong at home, including Hull City, but this is a big challenge for him and Watford this week. The Asian Handicap is harder to read as Watford do look more competitive under the Portuguese manager, while they have played with confidence.
However I think this Manchester City team have been very strong and having a small interest in them winning a match in which both teams score looks worth taking on.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: At first glance a lot of people would probably suggest that this game has the makings of being the last one to be shown on any highlight programme you may watch on Saturday evening. West Brom are far from the most glamorous teams in the Premier League, while West Ham United had been out of form prior to the win over Huddersfield Town on Monday night.
However I think the layers are taking a chance by offering at least three goals to be shared out at odds against here.
For starters this has been a fixture that has produced goals with the last 3 overall seeing at least three goals shared out as well as the last 3 played at The Hawthorns.
West Brom have tended to be a better scoring team at home which should mean they go on the attack against a West Ham United side that have conceded 10 goals in 3 away games this season. Even a poor display from Huddersfield Town saw them open up West Ham United for a couple of big chances and so West Brom have to be feeling confident of their chances of scoring one or two goals.
On the other hand, the strong defensive performances of the opening 2 Premier League games by West Brom have not looked so good over the last couple of games. They are facing a West Ham United team who have Andy Carroll back to pose more problems for defences and a team who have created chances this season even if the results have been disappointing.
13 of the 19 West Ham United away League games last season featured at least three goals each time and the same has happened in all 3 away games this season. With the fixture being a high scoring one in the last couple of years, the same may happen here, and it certainly shouldn't be an odds against price against a West Brom team who saw 9 of 19 home League games end with three or more goals shared out last season too.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City Pick: I am not one who really believes Tottenham Hotspur were 'cursed' playing games at Wembley Stadium, but I do think the players will take time getting comfortable in their surroundings. It isn't helped by the fact that away teams will visit Wembley Stadium and the players should automatically raise their game at playing at such a famous venue and that is likely to be a bigger factor than any 'curse' when Tottenham Hotspur finish with a worse record than they had at White Hart Lane last season.
To be fair, Tottenham Hotspur could not have done much better than winning 17 of 19 home games like they did last season. They have failed to win any of their 2 Premier League games here, but Tottenham Hotspur have perhaps been unfortunate in both and that does not bode well for Swansea City.
Last season Swansea City were beaten easily by Tottenham Hotspur in both Premier League games and have lost their two best players since then. Renato Sanches and Wilfried Bony will need some time before they are at their very best and it all seems to be adding up to a difficult day for Swansea City in the capital.
Swansea City are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions, but only the draw at Manchester United has come against one of the top teams in England. They are definitely facing one of those on Saturday and Tottenham Hotspur should be confident after dismissing Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at Wembley Stadium during the week.
Harry Kane has scored four goals in his last couple of games for Spurs and I do think they are going to be too strong for Swansea City. Tottenham Hotspur did win half of their 8 games following a European match last season and I think they can earn back to back wins at Wembley Stadium on Saturday and by a fairly comfortable margin so will look to back Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: This is a big London derby for both Chelsea and Arsenal who both have different things to prove this weekend. Chelsea had a disappointing opening weekend defeat to Burnley, but they have won 4 in a row since then and now can lay down a marker to show they are ready to defend their Premier League title they won last May.
On the other hand Arsenal have to show their defeat to Liverpool last month was an exception to the performances they will produce in the big games this season. The problem is that the level they produced that day at Anfield has been more common in big games involving Arsenal than not and The Gunners will be under pressure to show something different here.
Arsenal have won just 2 of their last 18 away games against teams that have finished in the top seven in the Premier League over the last three seasons. Last season they were beaten in 5 of 6 games at the top seven teams and there have been enough performances like they produced in the 4-0 loss at Liverpool to make the fans worry for these kinds of games.
This has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent years as they have suffered 5 consecutive losses at Stamford Bridge and the last 4 of those have come by two or more goals on the day. With Chelsea showing improvement and getting back to a full squad of players to pick from, it is hard to imagine Arsenal turning that around here on Sunday.
The away side are coming in with a little more confidence having won back to back games this week, but Arsenal have lost 8 of their last 12 away games in all competitions including both played in the Premier League this season.
It does feel Chelsea are the stronger team both in the tactics and the quality they can depend upon. I just can't see Arsenal avoiding the mistakes at the back that have blighted them in many big games and I am going to back Chelsea to secure the three points on Sunday.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: The Premier League fixture list has been kind to open the season for Manchester United and Jose Mourinho's squad have taken advantage of that, although they will feel two points were dropped last week at Stoke City. This is the first time that Manchester United will play a side that finished in the top half last season and this is a chance for the side to show they are genuine title challengers.
Last season Manchester United won 5 of 18 games against teams that finished in the top half and that was a big reason they failed to make the top four in the Premier League. The form at Old Trafford generally wasn't good enough either and so this is a big game for Manchester United despite how poorly Everton have been playing.
It is one thing losing 3 consecutive games and conceding 8 goals without scoring one of your own- but it is another all together when none of the defeats have flattered you and could have been a lot worse on another day.
That is where Everton are after losing 2-0 at Chelsea, 0-3 at home against Tottenham Hotspur and then 3-0 in Italy against Atalanta. Despite the money invested in the squad, Everton were extremely poor in all three of those games and they could have been beaten by a lot wider margins in all of those defeats.
Both games between these teams were close last season with the home team needing late equalisers to earn a draw. You also have to expect Everton are going to be better than they have been in recent games, but they won't have a lot of time to prepare for this one and I am looking for Manchester United to take advantage of the lack of confidence Ronald Koeman's men.
The loss of Paul Pogba will be felt in games, but I think Jose Mourinho has options in this home game and I think Manchester United will prove too strong. Romelu Lukaku should get the better of Wayne Rooney in a fixture that features strikers that have swapped teams during the summer transfer window and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough to win this one.
With the way Everton have been playing, Manchester United could win their 4th game in a row at Old Trafford in the 2017/18 season and another by at least two goals. I have to think Everton cannot defend as poorly as they have in their last three games, but Manchester United are in decent form and I expect them to be too strong for Everton during the ninety minutes and can cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Leeds United Pick: This has proven to be a tough ground for Leeds United to visit in recent years, but the current crop of players have to be feeling confident of snapping a run of 7 losses in 8 previous visits to the New Den. It has been three years since Millwall last hosted Leeds United, but the latter are much improved having come close to a top six finish last season and following that up with a decent start to the 2017/18 season.
Thomas Christiansen has come in as manager and Leeds United have been playing very well under him, particularly away from home where they have won all 3 League games they have played and scored at least twice in each win.
None of the sides they have faced are expected to be good enough to finish in the top six, but Millwall are one who will likely be fighting against relegation this season. Millwall have played much better at home having scored 8 of their 10 League goals at the New Den and that makes them a team to respect.
Millwall have also been much stronger defensively at home and this is not going to be an easy game for either them or Leeds United. The layers understand that and have a big price on picking a winner, but that looks a difficult option here.
The first goal looks to be so important, but I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to keep their positive run going. They haven't played well here which is a concern in backing them, but you get a decent price on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in case of a draw.
Backing Leeds United with that security looks a decent price for a side that have scored at least twice in each away game this season. Leeds United are playing with plenty of belief at the moment too and I will look for them to keep the good run going despite the issues they've had in facing Millwall at the New Den.
Sheffield United v Norwich City Pick: The current form of these two teams does give the edge to Sheffield United who have been very good at home compared with Norwich City who have conceded four goals in their last couple of away games, both unsurprisingly ended in defeat.
Sheffield United have won 10 of their last 11 home games going back to last season, while Norwich City have won 1 of 11 away games.
All of that points to Sheffield United being the right side to back, but you have to remember that this is a side that were playing in League One last season and Norwich City are only eighteen months removed from being a Premier League club. The Sheffield United home wins have been solid, but only the one against Derby County can be considered against one of the better teams at this level, and that does raise some concerns.
However this is a Norwich City side who were beaten 4-0 at newly promoted Millwall and so I am very much behind Sheffield United being the right side. They look a big price to back in the win-draw-win market, but I think they still look an appealing price on the Asian Handicap where the stake will be returned if the match ends in a draw.
The draw is a possibility if Norwich City play up to the level they can, but I would lean towards Sheffield United having the edge at Bramall Lane in this one.
Barnsley v Aston Villa Pick: The fans have begun to turn on Steve Bruce as his management of Aston Villa has failed to produce the results that would be expected considering the kind of investment that has been made in the club. The pressure is on Bruce to put some wins together and start moving up the League table if he is to remain as manager of Aston Villa, but I am not sure he will get his wish to start a positive run here.
This has been a tough venue for teams to earn victories since Barnsley moved back into the Championship, although the test for the club is turning some of the 11 home draws into wins this time around. Barnsley have made a positive start in doing that with 4 wins from 5 games here in all competitions and confidence has to be flowing.
Barnsley have not enjoyed much success against Aston Villa at home having failed to beat them in 9 attempts, but they did earn a draw last season to snap a run of 5 consecutive home losses to Villa. They also won at Villa Park and I think Barnsley have a system that works for them and has proven to be very effective.
4 of their 6 home losses last season did come against sides that finished above Barnsley in the League table, but Aston Villa have not exactly lit things up on their travels. Aston Villa have won 4 of their 26 away Championship games over the last thirteen months and I think they look awfully short to win here when you factor in that poor record.
Add in the fact that Barnsley have lost just 7 of 26 home League games in the last thirteen months themselves and I would be surprised if the home side are not capable of at least earning a point here. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals in recent home games with 13 goals scored in 5 games at Oakwell in all competitions and I will look to back them with the start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bournemouth @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 9-8-2, + 1.52 Units (37 Units Staked, + 4.11% Yield)
Both Liverpool and Everton were the only teams that failed to win this week, but the two Manchester clubs, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Arsenal were all winners to make a good start to their individual Group campaigns.
The big story of the week looks to be about the 20,000 Koln supporters who came to the Emirates Stadium on Thursday and decided that many of them would buy tickets in the Arsenal stands. There has been a split in the opinion with some people suggesting the whole incident has been overhyped, while others think it is the biggest disgrace in years.
I'm torn- as a football fan I thought the Koln fans were brilliant and they didn't come to cause trouble, but on the other hand this arguably the most tribal of sports around the world which is why segregation is so important. In this case we were lucky to see the Koln supporters coming for a good time and to support their team, but other clubs have a much deeper hooligan side which would have caused massive problems for fans with families and so I can see both points of views.
The ramifications will go on throughout the next few weeks as UEFA come into things and more and more people write their opinion on the matter. It is likely that UEFA will come down hard on Arsenal and Koln, but it will be interesting if other clubs decide to follow the Koln fans route in the coming months ahead.
On Friday we have the return of the Premier League which culminates in two big games on Sunday as four of the top seven face one another. Games keep coming thick and fast in September in a busy month before the next international break which begins in early October and so this is already a time when rotation will be rife.
Next week we have the English League Cup where many managers will change their starting line ups and then we have another two rounds of domestic action around Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League.
Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: With Brighton earning promotion to the Premier League last season, there will be a few more south coast derby games to be played and this is the first of them this season. Brighton and Bournemouth may usually fight it out for the summer tourist season on the beaches, but there are an important three Premier League points on the line when they open up this weekend's action on Friday Night Football.
It is a big game for Bournemouth who are trying to earn their first points of the season having lost all 4 Premier League games. They were unfortunate to lose 1-2 against Manchester City in their last home game, but overall Bournemouth have not played that well and the 0-2 loss to Watford here was a particularly poor result.
They have won 14 of their 38 home Premier League games over the last couple of seasons though and Bournemouth have generally been better against the weaker teams in the Premier League. Last season Bournemouth won 9 out of 19 League games at home and 7 of those wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
I do think Bournemouth are better than what they have shown so far and I do expect this side to score goals, even if they have failed to get going on that front in the 2017/18 season. Underestimating Brighton shouldn't be an issue either as Brighton have earned 4 points so far and come into the game unbeaten in 3 in all competitions.
The win over West Brom last weekend will make Brighton feel they belong at this level and adds to the point they earned at Watford. However you have to wonder if this side has enough goals in the squad and that will be a challenge for them until January at least when Chris Hughton may be able to bring in some reinforcements.
The lack of goals may show up here even if Brighton have made up for that by looking a little more organised defensively. That does make them a dangerous opponent for Bournemouth who do allow teams the space to create chances against them, but I think this is ultimately the kind of game that Bournemouth should be winning.
It feels like a matter of time before Bournemouth find improvements in their results and a similar display to the one they produced against Manchester City should see that improvement begin here. Bournemouth have a decent home record against Brighton over the years and I will look for The Cherries to earn the three points on Friday.
The first goal will be crucial I feel, but I will look for Eddie Howe to find the right formula here and Bournemouth to win the fixture at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: There is going to be a real interest to see how Huddersfield Town bounce back from the disappointment of losing their first League game back in the top flight. We have seen many promoted clubs make strong starts to their Premier League seasons before hitting the wall following a loss and that is something David Wagner will be desperate to avoid.
No one will have any doubt of the importance of the home form for Huddersfield Town if they are going to surprisingly avoid an immediate return to the Championship. As much as they have earned the respect from their form in August, there is still a feeling that goals might be difficult to come by for The Terriers and that means relying on the defensive performances they have produced so far.
Conceding their first goals of the new season in the Premier League will have dented that confidence and I think Leicester City are a dangerous team for Huddersfield Town to face. With more expectation to get forward at home, Leicester City play the kind of away football that could see them threaten Huddersfield Town in this fixture with the pacy counter attack they employ.
Leicester City have played much better under Craig Shakespeare as they have gone back to the basics which saw them win 11 out of 19 away League games two seasons ago. They won 2 of their last 5 Premier League away games last season and should have won at Arsenal on the opening weekend of this one.
Goals haven't been a problem for Leicester City under Craig Shakespeare and I think this is a side that is better than their points suggest as they have been through a difficult start to the fixtures. With the talent they have on the counter, I can see Leicester City causing problems for Huddersfield Town in this one and I do think they are capable of winning here.
My fear for Huddersfield Town is that they will struggle to match the goals that Leicester City can produce and I will back the latter on the Asian Handicap which will return half a stake if the match does end in a draw.
Liverpool v Burnley Pick: Roy Keane was brutal in his assessment of what to expect from Liverpool this season when it comes to winning the biggest prizes, but his verdict has only been highlighted as a former Manchester United Captain in my opinion. Keane is far from the only one who has been heavily critical of the Liverpool defensive performances with former Liverpool players Jamie Carragher and Graeme Souness also making their disdain clear.
The poor defensive performances over the last week have really highlighted the problem for Liverpool having conceded 7 goals to Manchester City and Sevilla combined. However this weekend they are not facing a team with the same kind of quality in the final third and Liverpool have kept a couple of clean sheets at Anfield in the Premier League.
Missing Sadio Mane is a clear blow for Liverpool's attacking intent, especially as Philippe Coutinho looked short of match fitness in his cameo during the week against Sevilla. The Brazilian was welcomed back by the crowd, but Jurgen Klopp may decide to begin Daniel Sturridge rather than Coutinho in this one although Liverpool will still be really strong going forward.
They should cause problems for a Burnley side who will miss the presence of Tom Heaton in goal, although Sean Dyche's men have really played well so far this season. They may have ridden their luck to beat Crystal Palace last weekend, but Burnley have to be respected for the win at Chelsea and the draw at Tottenham Hotspur.
That is much better form than they had for much of last season away from home, although I have to give Burnley credit for at least being competitive. Only 5 of their 19 away games saw Burnley lose by more than a couple of goals and so this is a side that will be tough to beat.
However Liverpool are a rampant side at Anfield and the key for Burnley is to try and stay in the game early on. That may be difficult with a new goalkeeper between the sticks which may make them a little more edgy than if Heaton was there and I do think Liverpool may prove too strong.
9 of Liverpool's 12 home League wins came by more than a single goal margin and they have already thumped a poor Arsenal side at Anfield. This one will likely be tight at the end with Burnley expected to cause some problems going forward, but they will have to defend a lot better than they did against Crystal Palace and I will back Liverpool to win and cover the Asian Handicap even without Sadio Mane.
Watford v Manchester City Pick: This past week has shown what Manchester City can do when they turn on the style, although the win over Liverpool perhaps flattered them in what was a close game before Sadio Mane's sending off. On the other hand Manchester City were anything but flattered when hammering Dutch Champions Feyenoord 0-4 during the week in a game where they could have scored double that amount.
There are plenty of options for Pep Guardiola when it comes to picking his starting eleven, but his team should be fresh having coasted to the win on Wednesday. The last week has not been the most taxing for the players and so Manchester City are rightly set as big favourites to win here.
That might be disrespecting Watford who have played well under Marco Silva and look like they can cause problems for any team they face. Silva's Hull City also performed very well at home under his watch last season and Watford have already held Liverpool to a draw here this season.
Watford have not really competed against the top teams in previous seasons with a couple of exceptions to that rule. It is only a few months since they were hammered 0-5 by Manchester City on this ground, but the current Watford team look much more confident and are playing for their manager unlike their reaction on the final day of last season.
The Hornets have only failed to score in the game against Brighton when reduced to ten men very early on, but I think they can cause Manchester City one or two problems in this one. I certainly expect more positive attacking intention than Feyenoord produced and Watford will have seen how Bournemouth gave Pep Guardiola's men difficulties.
Expect this Watford team to look to take advantage of the counter attack with some pace in the forward areas and I do think they are capable of breaching the Manchester City back line. Set pieces will also be important for them, although it is hard to imagine Watford keeping Manchester City from scoring here too.
Marco Silva's teams have been strong at home, including Hull City, but this is a big challenge for him and Watford this week. The Asian Handicap is harder to read as Watford do look more competitive under the Portuguese manager, while they have played with confidence.
However I think this Manchester City team have been very strong and having a small interest in them winning a match in which both teams score looks worth taking on.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: At first glance a lot of people would probably suggest that this game has the makings of being the last one to be shown on any highlight programme you may watch on Saturday evening. West Brom are far from the most glamorous teams in the Premier League, while West Ham United had been out of form prior to the win over Huddersfield Town on Monday night.
However I think the layers are taking a chance by offering at least three goals to be shared out at odds against here.
For starters this has been a fixture that has produced goals with the last 3 overall seeing at least three goals shared out as well as the last 3 played at The Hawthorns.
West Brom have tended to be a better scoring team at home which should mean they go on the attack against a West Ham United side that have conceded 10 goals in 3 away games this season. Even a poor display from Huddersfield Town saw them open up West Ham United for a couple of big chances and so West Brom have to be feeling confident of their chances of scoring one or two goals.
On the other hand, the strong defensive performances of the opening 2 Premier League games by West Brom have not looked so good over the last couple of games. They are facing a West Ham United team who have Andy Carroll back to pose more problems for defences and a team who have created chances this season even if the results have been disappointing.
13 of the 19 West Ham United away League games last season featured at least three goals each time and the same has happened in all 3 away games this season. With the fixture being a high scoring one in the last couple of years, the same may happen here, and it certainly shouldn't be an odds against price against a West Brom team who saw 9 of 19 home League games end with three or more goals shared out last season too.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City Pick: I am not one who really believes Tottenham Hotspur were 'cursed' playing games at Wembley Stadium, but I do think the players will take time getting comfortable in their surroundings. It isn't helped by the fact that away teams will visit Wembley Stadium and the players should automatically raise their game at playing at such a famous venue and that is likely to be a bigger factor than any 'curse' when Tottenham Hotspur finish with a worse record than they had at White Hart Lane last season.
To be fair, Tottenham Hotspur could not have done much better than winning 17 of 19 home games like they did last season. They have failed to win any of their 2 Premier League games here, but Tottenham Hotspur have perhaps been unfortunate in both and that does not bode well for Swansea City.
Last season Swansea City were beaten easily by Tottenham Hotspur in both Premier League games and have lost their two best players since then. Renato Sanches and Wilfried Bony will need some time before they are at their very best and it all seems to be adding up to a difficult day for Swansea City in the capital.
Swansea City are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions, but only the draw at Manchester United has come against one of the top teams in England. They are definitely facing one of those on Saturday and Tottenham Hotspur should be confident after dismissing Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at Wembley Stadium during the week.
Harry Kane has scored four goals in his last couple of games for Spurs and I do think they are going to be too strong for Swansea City. Tottenham Hotspur did win half of their 8 games following a European match last season and I think they can earn back to back wins at Wembley Stadium on Saturday and by a fairly comfortable margin so will look to back Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: This is a big London derby for both Chelsea and Arsenal who both have different things to prove this weekend. Chelsea had a disappointing opening weekend defeat to Burnley, but they have won 4 in a row since then and now can lay down a marker to show they are ready to defend their Premier League title they won last May.
On the other hand Arsenal have to show their defeat to Liverpool last month was an exception to the performances they will produce in the big games this season. The problem is that the level they produced that day at Anfield has been more common in big games involving Arsenal than not and The Gunners will be under pressure to show something different here.
Arsenal have won just 2 of their last 18 away games against teams that have finished in the top seven in the Premier League over the last three seasons. Last season they were beaten in 5 of 6 games at the top seven teams and there have been enough performances like they produced in the 4-0 loss at Liverpool to make the fans worry for these kinds of games.
This has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent years as they have suffered 5 consecutive losses at Stamford Bridge and the last 4 of those have come by two or more goals on the day. With Chelsea showing improvement and getting back to a full squad of players to pick from, it is hard to imagine Arsenal turning that around here on Sunday.
The away side are coming in with a little more confidence having won back to back games this week, but Arsenal have lost 8 of their last 12 away games in all competitions including both played in the Premier League this season.
It does feel Chelsea are the stronger team both in the tactics and the quality they can depend upon. I just can't see Arsenal avoiding the mistakes at the back that have blighted them in many big games and I am going to back Chelsea to secure the three points on Sunday.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: The Premier League fixture list has been kind to open the season for Manchester United and Jose Mourinho's squad have taken advantage of that, although they will feel two points were dropped last week at Stoke City. This is the first time that Manchester United will play a side that finished in the top half last season and this is a chance for the side to show they are genuine title challengers.
Last season Manchester United won 5 of 18 games against teams that finished in the top half and that was a big reason they failed to make the top four in the Premier League. The form at Old Trafford generally wasn't good enough either and so this is a big game for Manchester United despite how poorly Everton have been playing.
It is one thing losing 3 consecutive games and conceding 8 goals without scoring one of your own- but it is another all together when none of the defeats have flattered you and could have been a lot worse on another day.
That is where Everton are after losing 2-0 at Chelsea, 0-3 at home against Tottenham Hotspur and then 3-0 in Italy against Atalanta. Despite the money invested in the squad, Everton were extremely poor in all three of those games and they could have been beaten by a lot wider margins in all of those defeats.
Both games between these teams were close last season with the home team needing late equalisers to earn a draw. You also have to expect Everton are going to be better than they have been in recent games, but they won't have a lot of time to prepare for this one and I am looking for Manchester United to take advantage of the lack of confidence Ronald Koeman's men.
The loss of Paul Pogba will be felt in games, but I think Jose Mourinho has options in this home game and I think Manchester United will prove too strong. Romelu Lukaku should get the better of Wayne Rooney in a fixture that features strikers that have swapped teams during the summer transfer window and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough to win this one.
With the way Everton have been playing, Manchester United could win their 4th game in a row at Old Trafford in the 2017/18 season and another by at least two goals. I have to think Everton cannot defend as poorly as they have in their last three games, but Manchester United are in decent form and I expect them to be too strong for Everton during the ninety minutes and can cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Leeds United Pick: This has proven to be a tough ground for Leeds United to visit in recent years, but the current crop of players have to be feeling confident of snapping a run of 7 losses in 8 previous visits to the New Den. It has been three years since Millwall last hosted Leeds United, but the latter are much improved having come close to a top six finish last season and following that up with a decent start to the 2017/18 season.
Thomas Christiansen has come in as manager and Leeds United have been playing very well under him, particularly away from home where they have won all 3 League games they have played and scored at least twice in each win.
None of the sides they have faced are expected to be good enough to finish in the top six, but Millwall are one who will likely be fighting against relegation this season. Millwall have played much better at home having scored 8 of their 10 League goals at the New Den and that makes them a team to respect.
Millwall have also been much stronger defensively at home and this is not going to be an easy game for either them or Leeds United. The layers understand that and have a big price on picking a winner, but that looks a difficult option here.
The first goal looks to be so important, but I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to keep their positive run going. They haven't played well here which is a concern in backing them, but you get a decent price on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in case of a draw.
Backing Leeds United with that security looks a decent price for a side that have scored at least twice in each away game this season. Leeds United are playing with plenty of belief at the moment too and I will look for them to keep the good run going despite the issues they've had in facing Millwall at the New Den.
Sheffield United v Norwich City Pick: The current form of these two teams does give the edge to Sheffield United who have been very good at home compared with Norwich City who have conceded four goals in their last couple of away games, both unsurprisingly ended in defeat.
Sheffield United have won 10 of their last 11 home games going back to last season, while Norwich City have won 1 of 11 away games.
All of that points to Sheffield United being the right side to back, but you have to remember that this is a side that were playing in League One last season and Norwich City are only eighteen months removed from being a Premier League club. The Sheffield United home wins have been solid, but only the one against Derby County can be considered against one of the better teams at this level, and that does raise some concerns.
However this is a Norwich City side who were beaten 4-0 at newly promoted Millwall and so I am very much behind Sheffield United being the right side. They look a big price to back in the win-draw-win market, but I think they still look an appealing price on the Asian Handicap where the stake will be returned if the match ends in a draw.
The draw is a possibility if Norwich City play up to the level they can, but I would lean towards Sheffield United having the edge at Bramall Lane in this one.
Barnsley v Aston Villa Pick: The fans have begun to turn on Steve Bruce as his management of Aston Villa has failed to produce the results that would be expected considering the kind of investment that has been made in the club. The pressure is on Bruce to put some wins together and start moving up the League table if he is to remain as manager of Aston Villa, but I am not sure he will get his wish to start a positive run here.
This has been a tough venue for teams to earn victories since Barnsley moved back into the Championship, although the test for the club is turning some of the 11 home draws into wins this time around. Barnsley have made a positive start in doing that with 4 wins from 5 games here in all competitions and confidence has to be flowing.
Barnsley have not enjoyed much success against Aston Villa at home having failed to beat them in 9 attempts, but they did earn a draw last season to snap a run of 5 consecutive home losses to Villa. They also won at Villa Park and I think Barnsley have a system that works for them and has proven to be very effective.
4 of their 6 home losses last season did come against sides that finished above Barnsley in the League table, but Aston Villa have not exactly lit things up on their travels. Aston Villa have won 4 of their 26 away Championship games over the last thirteen months and I think they look awfully short to win here when you factor in that poor record.
Add in the fact that Barnsley have lost just 7 of 26 home League games in the last thirteen months themselves and I would be surprised if the home side are not capable of at least earning a point here. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals in recent home games with 13 goals scored in 5 games at Oakwell in all competitions and I will look to back them with the start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bournemouth @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 9-8-2, + 1.52 Units (37 Units Staked, + 4.11% Yield)
Friday, 18 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 19-21)
The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
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