The Premier League is back this weekend after a two week break and this thread is going to cover the Picks to be made from the fixtures that will be played over three days.
August was a decent month, but September did not start as well as expected so I am looking for a much better outcome from the weekend's matches ahead of the start of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage opening matches during the week.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League returns with a bang this weekend as Tottenham Hotspur prepare to take on Liverpool and there has been a big drift on the home prices which means they go into this one as the underdog.
In another dimension Tottenham Hotspur are opening up New White Hart Lane to significant fanfare, but in this dimension they have to return to Wembley Stadium. That might not be all bad news for a team who have won 11 of their last 14 games in the national Stadium and the return of Heung-Min Son from international duty is a huge boost for the team.
The 2-1 loss to Watford was a really disappointing result, especially as Tottenham Hotspur came off a fantastic 0-3 win at Old Trafford but they look to be have been written off a little too much in this one.
Liverpool have won all 4 Premier League games played this season, but they have yet to better a result they achieved in the corresponding fixture from last season. The side were a little fortunate in their win over Leicester City and now they are in for the first really significant test of their Premier League title credentials on Saturday.
Sadio Mane is in fine form and Liverpool have goals in the side which makes them dangerous, but the backline is going to be challenged more than they have so far this season. Last year they couldn't handle the Tottenham Hotspur attack who scored twice at Anfield as well as the four goals at Wembley Stadium and even a slightly out of form Tottenham Hotspur poses a big challenge.
I would be surprised if Tottenham Hotspur were to lose this one. Harry Kane might not be firing just yet, but the returning Son is a boost and defensively Tottenham Hotspur have generally been much better than what they displayed against Watford. The World Cup will have an affect on the players even at this stage of the season which is a concern, but I do think Liverpool have yet to be tested and I am not buying into the hype as much as some of the fans will.
You can actually pick up Tottenham Hotspur with a start on the Asian Handicap at a decent price and that will be my selection. I personally think Tottenham Hotspur can do enough to edge to the victory as they bounce back from the poor display at Watford, but even a draw would provide a profit in that situation.
Liverpool have won their games, which has to be respected, but they have looked far from convincing and I will take a start with a surprising home underdog.
Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: Games between Bournemouth and Leicester City have promised much but failed to really live up to the expectations in recent years.
Both teams have quality attacking players and you would think they would gel together with Eddie Howe looking for his team to dictate the play and Leicester City being used to open up the counter attack.
For one reason or another goals have tended not to flow when they have met one another, but the early season form suggests they can hit the goal trail in this fixture on Saturday.
Bournemouth have looked very effective going forward and looking to score goals, but they remain a vulnerable team at the back. That should be exposed by a well rested Jamie Vardy who is back from suspension for Leicester City although The Foxes have had anything but a watertight defence in the early weeks of the season.
That should mean we see a couple of teams who are able to get forward and score goals and I would be surprised if both teams were not able to get on the scoreboard in this one. With the attacking intent Bournemouth have played with to open this season I think they will keep this an open game and that should mean we can find a winner and look for at least three goals to be shared out between two teams who have made a good start to the 2018/19 season.
Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The next month between the two international breaks will tell us a lot about where Chelsea stand and whether they are a genuine Premier League title contender, but it would be a real surprise if they can't keep their 100% record moving onto another week this weekend.
A home game with Cardiff City should be very much a fixture that Chelsea are able to dominate, although you do have to wonder how players are feeling when returning from their international commitments.
One player I don't worry about is Eden Hazard who looks to be playing at a very high level having continued scoring goals for Belgium during the international fixtures. He has been in good form for Chelsea following on from a very strong World Cup and I do think the home team will prove too strong for a Cardiff City team that could struggle for goals.
Neil Warnock will look to make Cardiff City hard to beat away from home, but this is a big step up for a team who were not expected to be anywhere near the promotion places in the Championship last season. The squad hasn't seen a lot of investment in the summer transfer window and it will be down to Warnock's motivational skills to try and keep the club in the top flight.
Fixtures like this won't determine that for Cardiff City but Warnock won't want to see his team embarrassed and they will try and frustrate Chelsea for as long as possible. However I think the Maurizio Sarri methods will see The Blues put a lot of pressure on the Cardiff City backline throughout this one and I believe the home team will be too strong on the day.
It is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but Chelsea have been scoring plenty of goals and look like a team that will create chances. That may be too much for a goal-shy Cardiff City team and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap which will produce a profit as long as Chelsea win by at least two goals on the day.
Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have to be circling fixtures like this one as being very important in their bid to reach the 40 point mark in the Premier League which will keep them in the top flight.
David Wagner will fully appreciate the tough job he has on his hands to keep The Terriers in the Premier League for a third consecutive season having seen Huddersfield Town struggle in the second half of the 2017/18 season. That drop in level of performance has come into the new season too and Huddersfield Town could feel a little fortunate to even have 2 points on the board.
On the other hand Crystal Palace do think they have deserved more than the single win they have earned in their first 4 League games. They had the chances to do better than their 0-2 defeat to Southampton last time out and Roy Hodgson has to be pleased to have Wilfried Zaha potentially available for this fixture.
Crystal Palace certainly have more going forward with Zaha in the line up and even the absence of Christian Benteke should not have a big impact on The Eagles. They have looked like they can create a lot more chances than Huddersfield Town and that can make the difference when these teams meet on Saturday.
If you're a home fan you have to be worried that Huddersfield Town have not scored in 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions including in both games played this season. The goal issue has not really not been resolved and I think that will contribute to an away win here as I do think Crystal Palace have more chances in them and definitely more goals.
Backing Crystal Palace on the Asian Handicap will return the stake in the event of a draw and that looks a reasonable way to go in this fixture.
Manchester City v Fulham Pick: This is a very tough task for Fulham coming out of the international break especially if they don't change the style they have produced through the first month of the season. An open, attacking system has to be praised, but Fulham have been very suspect at the back and have allowed opponents to create significant opportunities to score goals.
Tottenham Hotspur scored three times against Fulham and Crystal Palace, Burnley and Brighton have all scored twice as the open style employed by The Cottagers has seen them struggle at the back.
Going to the Etihad Stadium it is a big ask of Fulham to play that way even if they will give Manchester City a few problems doing that. Manchester City have not had a clean sheet in their last 3 Premier League games which means Fulham may be encouraged to get forward, but Manchester City have created a lot of chances in their matches and I think it is going to be very difficult for Fulham to contain them.
As with many home games Manchester City will be asked to cover a big Asian Handicap and a Fulham goal would make it very difficult to do that. Losing Kevin De Bruyne is a blow for Manchester City but they have the talented players who can make up for the Belgian's absence for the next couple of months and this is a team who have created enough chances to think they are never too far away from handing out a big defeat to opponents.
With the style Fulham have used I think they will be a good match up for Manchester City and I will back the home team to produce a win that can see them cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: This is the third home game of the season for Newcastle United and they are facing yet another club that finished in the top six last season. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have deservedly won here this season, but this Arsenal team are still finding their feet under Unai Emery which may make them vulnerable as a short priced favourite.
However I have been impressed with the chances Arsenal have been creating in their games under Emery and they did have a very good record at St James' Park before the 2-1 defeat here a few months ago.
On that occasion Arsenal did take the lead before losing, but I am not sure this current Newcastle United squad have the kind of confidence to be able to recover from a deficit. I know they have fallen behind to Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City and found an equaliser, but Newcastle United have not created a lot of chances in those games and still look short of goals which makes me believe they are not going to be capable of continuing to fight back in these bigger games.
Arsenal have been far from convincing at the back which is an issue for them to resolve, but that may take time as the players get used to the methods Emery wants to employ. Even with those problems in mind, Arsenal have looked very good going forward and are creating plenty of chances which makes it tough for Newcastle United to look to contain them.
The home team will be backed by a passionate crowd, but Arsenal handled the occasion in a 2-3 win at Cardiff City prior to the international break and I think they will have too much for Newcastle United. They are barely odds on for this fixture, and I would have liked a slightly better price, but Arsenal look the better team and are playing with a real goal threat.
I feel they will have at least two goals in them at St James' Park on Saturday and I simply don't think Newcastle United will be able to match them with the limited threat posed so far this season. The home team may score, but it won't be enough to avoid defeat as far as I am concerned.
Watford v Manchester United Pick: This is a good looking match on Saturday afternoon as Watford look to bring the momentum of 5 straight wins into a fixture where they are hoping to take down another of the top six clubs from last season. The performances have been decent from Watford, but you can't help feel they have ridden their luck a little bit to the results and this is a big test for them out of the international break.
With Watford you know they will bring hard work and some decent attacking quality onto the field, but with Manchester United it is much harder to predict these days.
After back to back League defeats to Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur where Manchester United conceded three times in each loss, the side bounced back with a good display at Turf Moor to knock off Burnley.
There are still some questions for Jose Mourinho's team to answer, but they have been creating decent chances which suggests a decent run can be put together before facing Chelsea after the next international break. This is a tough game, but it is followed by Wolves, West Ham United and Newcastle United in the Premier League and Young Boys and Valencia in the Champions League which means the Burnley win can be built upon.
If Manchester United create the chances they did against Spurs and Burnley I would think they can win here. They scored four times in a victory at Vicarage Road last season and Manchester United look like a team who have shown signs of quality attacking football to break down a resilient Watford team.
Defensively Manchester United have been far from convincing which makes it hard to completely trust them but at just under odds against prices I do think Mourinho's men can win here and start putting some momentum together.
Wolves v Burnley Pick: As soon as Burnley qualified for the Europa League Qualifiers and failed to make the kind of investment in the playing staff that was expected in the summer it felt like this squad would be stretched playing the Thursday-Sunday schedule.
That has to be a real contributory factor in the poor start made by Burnley although they have also been a little unlucky in fixtures as teams have taken the chances they have created and Burnley's defence has not been as strong as it was last season.
I do expect things to turn around for Burnley now they are back to solely concentrating on the Premier League and they look a little underrated to earn a result in the first live game on Sunday afternoon.
Wolves have played well this season and could have earned more than the 5 points they have put on the board, but they haven't been so strong to think they deserve to be as short a price to win this fixture. The team do look decent enough going forward, but Wolves have yet to bring in the defensive strength which formed the platform of their success in the Championship as they won that Division in May.
Both teams should have their chances in this one and I am anticipating a close match. I don't think Burnley will defend as poorly as they have in August now the players are going to be more rested to put in the effort they need in the Premier League fixtures they have coming up and I think that makes them an interesting back on the Asian Handicap this weekend.
While I can understand why Wolves are favourites to win, this is a team still learning how to cope with the higher level and demands of the Premier League compared with the Championship. They do have players that could provide a magic moment or two to win this one, but Burnley are capable of scoring here which could make it very difficult for Wolves to win the game.
Backing the away team with the start on the Asian Handicap means half the stake would be returned if Burnley lose by a single goal margin, but I do think Sean Dyche's men can earn a result on Sunday. They will have to play better than they were going into the international break, but Burnley could also have a little bit more luck than they have enjoyed so far in the 2018/19 season and that could see Burnley earn a 'surprise' positive result in this one.
Everton v West Ham United Pick: There may be a contrasting feeling of confidence in the squads that are meeting in the second live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon, but Everton and West Ham United may be more closely matched than the oddsmakers think.
The injuries and suspensions in the Everton squad makes them vulnerable even at home with a number of defensive absentees giving West Ham United a chance. As poor as the results have been for The Hammers, they have shown some strength going forward and I think West Ham United will be able to cause some problems for their hosts.
Everton are missing some key attacking players, most notably Richarlison, but they are facing a West Ham United defence which has struggled. Theo Walcott and Dominic Calvert-Lewin's availability gives Everton some options going forward and this West Ham United team have given up some big chances in their games already this season which Everton will feel they can expose.
Both managers have attacking intentions too and it does feel like a fixture that is going to produce at least three goals on the day. My gut feeling is that West Ham United may snap a poor recent record at Goodison Park by earning a positive result in this one, but I will favour backing goals to be shared out with both Marco Silva and Manuel Pellegrini asking their team to get forward and score goals.
Everton have looked as vulnerable as West Ham United defensively and I can see the attacking players leading the way in an entertaining match.
Southampton v Brighton Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from St Mary's on Monday evening and both Southampton and Brighton will be keen to stamp their authority on this south coast rivalry.
Brighton have motivation for revenge after being beaten by Southampton in the League Cup Second Round in August, but they have a very poor away record over the last twelve months which can't be ignored.
You have to respect the fact that Brighton did earn a 1-1 draw at St Mary's in the Premier League, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away games and this is a team who struggle to create chances on their travels. Defensively they have not been as strong as they can be at the Amex Stadium and Southampton have some decent attacking players who will feel they can do enough to help Mark Hughes' men earn a third consecutive win in all competitions.
I do think Southampton can be more effective as a counter attacking team which may have contributed to their run of 1 win from their last 13 home Premier League games. Here there is more onus on Southampton to get forward which may not suit them as much as inviting the pressure to come onto them, but I think The Saints are playing well enough to win this one.
Chris Hughton's team will have to be a lot better defensively to avoid defeat as they can't match the scoring output of other clubs in the Premier League. They have been better at home, like last season, but playing away from the Amex Stadium has been more of a challenge for them and I think Southampton can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.
MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
September Update: 1-5, - 6.50 Units (12 Units Staked, - 54.17% Yield)
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Showing posts with label September 15-17. Show all posts
Showing posts with label September 15-17. Show all posts
Friday, 14 September 2018
Friday, 15 September 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (September 15-17)
The first round of Champions League and Europa League Group games are now in the books and it has proved to be a good week for all of the English clubs that don't play in Liverpool.
Both Liverpool and Everton were the only teams that failed to win this week, but the two Manchester clubs, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Arsenal were all winners to make a good start to their individual Group campaigns.
The big story of the week looks to be about the 20,000 Koln supporters who came to the Emirates Stadium on Thursday and decided that many of them would buy tickets in the Arsenal stands. There has been a split in the opinion with some people suggesting the whole incident has been overhyped, while others think it is the biggest disgrace in years.
I'm torn- as a football fan I thought the Koln fans were brilliant and they didn't come to cause trouble, but on the other hand this arguably the most tribal of sports around the world which is why segregation is so important. In this case we were lucky to see the Koln supporters coming for a good time and to support their team, but other clubs have a much deeper hooligan side which would have caused massive problems for fans with families and so I can see both points of views.
The ramifications will go on throughout the next few weeks as UEFA come into things and more and more people write their opinion on the matter. It is likely that UEFA will come down hard on Arsenal and Koln, but it will be interesting if other clubs decide to follow the Koln fans route in the coming months ahead.
On Friday we have the return of the Premier League which culminates in two big games on Sunday as four of the top seven face one another. Games keep coming thick and fast in September in a busy month before the next international break which begins in early October and so this is already a time when rotation will be rife.
Next week we have the English League Cup where many managers will change their starting line ups and then we have another two rounds of domestic action around Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League.
Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: With Brighton earning promotion to the Premier League last season, there will be a few more south coast derby games to be played and this is the first of them this season. Brighton and Bournemouth may usually fight it out for the summer tourist season on the beaches, but there are an important three Premier League points on the line when they open up this weekend's action on Friday Night Football.
It is a big game for Bournemouth who are trying to earn their first points of the season having lost all 4 Premier League games. They were unfortunate to lose 1-2 against Manchester City in their last home game, but overall Bournemouth have not played that well and the 0-2 loss to Watford here was a particularly poor result.
They have won 14 of their 38 home Premier League games over the last couple of seasons though and Bournemouth have generally been better against the weaker teams in the Premier League. Last season Bournemouth won 9 out of 19 League games at home and 7 of those wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
I do think Bournemouth are better than what they have shown so far and I do expect this side to score goals, even if they have failed to get going on that front in the 2017/18 season. Underestimating Brighton shouldn't be an issue either as Brighton have earned 4 points so far and come into the game unbeaten in 3 in all competitions.
The win over West Brom last weekend will make Brighton feel they belong at this level and adds to the point they earned at Watford. However you have to wonder if this side has enough goals in the squad and that will be a challenge for them until January at least when Chris Hughton may be able to bring in some reinforcements.
The lack of goals may show up here even if Brighton have made up for that by looking a little more organised defensively. That does make them a dangerous opponent for Bournemouth who do allow teams the space to create chances against them, but I think this is ultimately the kind of game that Bournemouth should be winning.
It feels like a matter of time before Bournemouth find improvements in their results and a similar display to the one they produced against Manchester City should see that improvement begin here. Bournemouth have a decent home record against Brighton over the years and I will look for The Cherries to earn the three points on Friday.
The first goal will be crucial I feel, but I will look for Eddie Howe to find the right formula here and Bournemouth to win the fixture at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: There is going to be a real interest to see how Huddersfield Town bounce back from the disappointment of losing their first League game back in the top flight. We have seen many promoted clubs make strong starts to their Premier League seasons before hitting the wall following a loss and that is something David Wagner will be desperate to avoid.
No one will have any doubt of the importance of the home form for Huddersfield Town if they are going to surprisingly avoid an immediate return to the Championship. As much as they have earned the respect from their form in August, there is still a feeling that goals might be difficult to come by for The Terriers and that means relying on the defensive performances they have produced so far.
Conceding their first goals of the new season in the Premier League will have dented that confidence and I think Leicester City are a dangerous team for Huddersfield Town to face. With more expectation to get forward at home, Leicester City play the kind of away football that could see them threaten Huddersfield Town in this fixture with the pacy counter attack they employ.
Leicester City have played much better under Craig Shakespeare as they have gone back to the basics which saw them win 11 out of 19 away League games two seasons ago. They won 2 of their last 5 Premier League away games last season and should have won at Arsenal on the opening weekend of this one.
Goals haven't been a problem for Leicester City under Craig Shakespeare and I think this is a side that is better than their points suggest as they have been through a difficult start to the fixtures. With the talent they have on the counter, I can see Leicester City causing problems for Huddersfield Town in this one and I do think they are capable of winning here.
My fear for Huddersfield Town is that they will struggle to match the goals that Leicester City can produce and I will back the latter on the Asian Handicap which will return half a stake if the match does end in a draw.
Liverpool v Burnley Pick: Roy Keane was brutal in his assessment of what to expect from Liverpool this season when it comes to winning the biggest prizes, but his verdict has only been highlighted as a former Manchester United Captain in my opinion. Keane is far from the only one who has been heavily critical of the Liverpool defensive performances with former Liverpool players Jamie Carragher and Graeme Souness also making their disdain clear.
The poor defensive performances over the last week have really highlighted the problem for Liverpool having conceded 7 goals to Manchester City and Sevilla combined. However this weekend they are not facing a team with the same kind of quality in the final third and Liverpool have kept a couple of clean sheets at Anfield in the Premier League.
Missing Sadio Mane is a clear blow for Liverpool's attacking intent, especially as Philippe Coutinho looked short of match fitness in his cameo during the week against Sevilla. The Brazilian was welcomed back by the crowd, but Jurgen Klopp may decide to begin Daniel Sturridge rather than Coutinho in this one although Liverpool will still be really strong going forward.
They should cause problems for a Burnley side who will miss the presence of Tom Heaton in goal, although Sean Dyche's men have really played well so far this season. They may have ridden their luck to beat Crystal Palace last weekend, but Burnley have to be respected for the win at Chelsea and the draw at Tottenham Hotspur.
That is much better form than they had for much of last season away from home, although I have to give Burnley credit for at least being competitive. Only 5 of their 19 away games saw Burnley lose by more than a couple of goals and so this is a side that will be tough to beat.
However Liverpool are a rampant side at Anfield and the key for Burnley is to try and stay in the game early on. That may be difficult with a new goalkeeper between the sticks which may make them a little more edgy than if Heaton was there and I do think Liverpool may prove too strong.
9 of Liverpool's 12 home League wins came by more than a single goal margin and they have already thumped a poor Arsenal side at Anfield. This one will likely be tight at the end with Burnley expected to cause some problems going forward, but they will have to defend a lot better than they did against Crystal Palace and I will back Liverpool to win and cover the Asian Handicap even without Sadio Mane.
Watford v Manchester City Pick: This past week has shown what Manchester City can do when they turn on the style, although the win over Liverpool perhaps flattered them in what was a close game before Sadio Mane's sending off. On the other hand Manchester City were anything but flattered when hammering Dutch Champions Feyenoord 0-4 during the week in a game where they could have scored double that amount.
There are plenty of options for Pep Guardiola when it comes to picking his starting eleven, but his team should be fresh having coasted to the win on Wednesday. The last week has not been the most taxing for the players and so Manchester City are rightly set as big favourites to win here.
That might be disrespecting Watford who have played well under Marco Silva and look like they can cause problems for any team they face. Silva's Hull City also performed very well at home under his watch last season and Watford have already held Liverpool to a draw here this season.
Watford have not really competed against the top teams in previous seasons with a couple of exceptions to that rule. It is only a few months since they were hammered 0-5 by Manchester City on this ground, but the current Watford team look much more confident and are playing for their manager unlike their reaction on the final day of last season.
The Hornets have only failed to score in the game against Brighton when reduced to ten men very early on, but I think they can cause Manchester City one or two problems in this one. I certainly expect more positive attacking intention than Feyenoord produced and Watford will have seen how Bournemouth gave Pep Guardiola's men difficulties.
Expect this Watford team to look to take advantage of the counter attack with some pace in the forward areas and I do think they are capable of breaching the Manchester City back line. Set pieces will also be important for them, although it is hard to imagine Watford keeping Manchester City from scoring here too.
Marco Silva's teams have been strong at home, including Hull City, but this is a big challenge for him and Watford this week. The Asian Handicap is harder to read as Watford do look more competitive under the Portuguese manager, while they have played with confidence.
However I think this Manchester City team have been very strong and having a small interest in them winning a match in which both teams score looks worth taking on.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: At first glance a lot of people would probably suggest that this game has the makings of being the last one to be shown on any highlight programme you may watch on Saturday evening. West Brom are far from the most glamorous teams in the Premier League, while West Ham United had been out of form prior to the win over Huddersfield Town on Monday night.
However I think the layers are taking a chance by offering at least three goals to be shared out at odds against here.
For starters this has been a fixture that has produced goals with the last 3 overall seeing at least three goals shared out as well as the last 3 played at The Hawthorns.
West Brom have tended to be a better scoring team at home which should mean they go on the attack against a West Ham United side that have conceded 10 goals in 3 away games this season. Even a poor display from Huddersfield Town saw them open up West Ham United for a couple of big chances and so West Brom have to be feeling confident of their chances of scoring one or two goals.
On the other hand, the strong defensive performances of the opening 2 Premier League games by West Brom have not looked so good over the last couple of games. They are facing a West Ham United team who have Andy Carroll back to pose more problems for defences and a team who have created chances this season even if the results have been disappointing.
13 of the 19 West Ham United away League games last season featured at least three goals each time and the same has happened in all 3 away games this season. With the fixture being a high scoring one in the last couple of years, the same may happen here, and it certainly shouldn't be an odds against price against a West Brom team who saw 9 of 19 home League games end with three or more goals shared out last season too.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City Pick: I am not one who really believes Tottenham Hotspur were 'cursed' playing games at Wembley Stadium, but I do think the players will take time getting comfortable in their surroundings. It isn't helped by the fact that away teams will visit Wembley Stadium and the players should automatically raise their game at playing at such a famous venue and that is likely to be a bigger factor than any 'curse' when Tottenham Hotspur finish with a worse record than they had at White Hart Lane last season.
To be fair, Tottenham Hotspur could not have done much better than winning 17 of 19 home games like they did last season. They have failed to win any of their 2 Premier League games here, but Tottenham Hotspur have perhaps been unfortunate in both and that does not bode well for Swansea City.
Last season Swansea City were beaten easily by Tottenham Hotspur in both Premier League games and have lost their two best players since then. Renato Sanches and Wilfried Bony will need some time before they are at their very best and it all seems to be adding up to a difficult day for Swansea City in the capital.
Swansea City are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions, but only the draw at Manchester United has come against one of the top teams in England. They are definitely facing one of those on Saturday and Tottenham Hotspur should be confident after dismissing Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at Wembley Stadium during the week.
Harry Kane has scored four goals in his last couple of games for Spurs and I do think they are going to be too strong for Swansea City. Tottenham Hotspur did win half of their 8 games following a European match last season and I think they can earn back to back wins at Wembley Stadium on Saturday and by a fairly comfortable margin so will look to back Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: This is a big London derby for both Chelsea and Arsenal who both have different things to prove this weekend. Chelsea had a disappointing opening weekend defeat to Burnley, but they have won 4 in a row since then and now can lay down a marker to show they are ready to defend their Premier League title they won last May.
On the other hand Arsenal have to show their defeat to Liverpool last month was an exception to the performances they will produce in the big games this season. The problem is that the level they produced that day at Anfield has been more common in big games involving Arsenal than not and The Gunners will be under pressure to show something different here.
Arsenal have won just 2 of their last 18 away games against teams that have finished in the top seven in the Premier League over the last three seasons. Last season they were beaten in 5 of 6 games at the top seven teams and there have been enough performances like they produced in the 4-0 loss at Liverpool to make the fans worry for these kinds of games.
This has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent years as they have suffered 5 consecutive losses at Stamford Bridge and the last 4 of those have come by two or more goals on the day. With Chelsea showing improvement and getting back to a full squad of players to pick from, it is hard to imagine Arsenal turning that around here on Sunday.
The away side are coming in with a little more confidence having won back to back games this week, but Arsenal have lost 8 of their last 12 away games in all competitions including both played in the Premier League this season.
It does feel Chelsea are the stronger team both in the tactics and the quality they can depend upon. I just can't see Arsenal avoiding the mistakes at the back that have blighted them in many big games and I am going to back Chelsea to secure the three points on Sunday.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: The Premier League fixture list has been kind to open the season for Manchester United and Jose Mourinho's squad have taken advantage of that, although they will feel two points were dropped last week at Stoke City. This is the first time that Manchester United will play a side that finished in the top half last season and this is a chance for the side to show they are genuine title challengers.
Last season Manchester United won 5 of 18 games against teams that finished in the top half and that was a big reason they failed to make the top four in the Premier League. The form at Old Trafford generally wasn't good enough either and so this is a big game for Manchester United despite how poorly Everton have been playing.
It is one thing losing 3 consecutive games and conceding 8 goals without scoring one of your own- but it is another all together when none of the defeats have flattered you and could have been a lot worse on another day.
That is where Everton are after losing 2-0 at Chelsea, 0-3 at home against Tottenham Hotspur and then 3-0 in Italy against Atalanta. Despite the money invested in the squad, Everton were extremely poor in all three of those games and they could have been beaten by a lot wider margins in all of those defeats.
Both games between these teams were close last season with the home team needing late equalisers to earn a draw. You also have to expect Everton are going to be better than they have been in recent games, but they won't have a lot of time to prepare for this one and I am looking for Manchester United to take advantage of the lack of confidence Ronald Koeman's men.
The loss of Paul Pogba will be felt in games, but I think Jose Mourinho has options in this home game and I think Manchester United will prove too strong. Romelu Lukaku should get the better of Wayne Rooney in a fixture that features strikers that have swapped teams during the summer transfer window and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough to win this one.
With the way Everton have been playing, Manchester United could win their 4th game in a row at Old Trafford in the 2017/18 season and another by at least two goals. I have to think Everton cannot defend as poorly as they have in their last three games, but Manchester United are in decent form and I expect them to be too strong for Everton during the ninety minutes and can cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Leeds United Pick: This has proven to be a tough ground for Leeds United to visit in recent years, but the current crop of players have to be feeling confident of snapping a run of 7 losses in 8 previous visits to the New Den. It has been three years since Millwall last hosted Leeds United, but the latter are much improved having come close to a top six finish last season and following that up with a decent start to the 2017/18 season.
Thomas Christiansen has come in as manager and Leeds United have been playing very well under him, particularly away from home where they have won all 3 League games they have played and scored at least twice in each win.
None of the sides they have faced are expected to be good enough to finish in the top six, but Millwall are one who will likely be fighting against relegation this season. Millwall have played much better at home having scored 8 of their 10 League goals at the New Den and that makes them a team to respect.
Millwall have also been much stronger defensively at home and this is not going to be an easy game for either them or Leeds United. The layers understand that and have a big price on picking a winner, but that looks a difficult option here.
The first goal looks to be so important, but I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to keep their positive run going. They haven't played well here which is a concern in backing them, but you get a decent price on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in case of a draw.
Backing Leeds United with that security looks a decent price for a side that have scored at least twice in each away game this season. Leeds United are playing with plenty of belief at the moment too and I will look for them to keep the good run going despite the issues they've had in facing Millwall at the New Den.
Sheffield United v Norwich City Pick: The current form of these two teams does give the edge to Sheffield United who have been very good at home compared with Norwich City who have conceded four goals in their last couple of away games, both unsurprisingly ended in defeat.
Sheffield United have won 10 of their last 11 home games going back to last season, while Norwich City have won 1 of 11 away games.
All of that points to Sheffield United being the right side to back, but you have to remember that this is a side that were playing in League One last season and Norwich City are only eighteen months removed from being a Premier League club. The Sheffield United home wins have been solid, but only the one against Derby County can be considered against one of the better teams at this level, and that does raise some concerns.
However this is a Norwich City side who were beaten 4-0 at newly promoted Millwall and so I am very much behind Sheffield United being the right side. They look a big price to back in the win-draw-win market, but I think they still look an appealing price on the Asian Handicap where the stake will be returned if the match ends in a draw.
The draw is a possibility if Norwich City play up to the level they can, but I would lean towards Sheffield United having the edge at Bramall Lane in this one.
Barnsley v Aston Villa Pick: The fans have begun to turn on Steve Bruce as his management of Aston Villa has failed to produce the results that would be expected considering the kind of investment that has been made in the club. The pressure is on Bruce to put some wins together and start moving up the League table if he is to remain as manager of Aston Villa, but I am not sure he will get his wish to start a positive run here.
This has been a tough venue for teams to earn victories since Barnsley moved back into the Championship, although the test for the club is turning some of the 11 home draws into wins this time around. Barnsley have made a positive start in doing that with 4 wins from 5 games here in all competitions and confidence has to be flowing.
Barnsley have not enjoyed much success against Aston Villa at home having failed to beat them in 9 attempts, but they did earn a draw last season to snap a run of 5 consecutive home losses to Villa. They also won at Villa Park and I think Barnsley have a system that works for them and has proven to be very effective.
4 of their 6 home losses last season did come against sides that finished above Barnsley in the League table, but Aston Villa have not exactly lit things up on their travels. Aston Villa have won 4 of their 26 away Championship games over the last thirteen months and I think they look awfully short to win here when you factor in that poor record.
Add in the fact that Barnsley have lost just 7 of 26 home League games in the last thirteen months themselves and I would be surprised if the home side are not capable of at least earning a point here. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals in recent home games with 13 goals scored in 5 games at Oakwell in all competitions and I will look to back them with the start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bournemouth @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 9-8-2, + 1.52 Units (37 Units Staked, + 4.11% Yield)
Both Liverpool and Everton were the only teams that failed to win this week, but the two Manchester clubs, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Arsenal were all winners to make a good start to their individual Group campaigns.
The big story of the week looks to be about the 20,000 Koln supporters who came to the Emirates Stadium on Thursday and decided that many of them would buy tickets in the Arsenal stands. There has been a split in the opinion with some people suggesting the whole incident has been overhyped, while others think it is the biggest disgrace in years.
I'm torn- as a football fan I thought the Koln fans were brilliant and they didn't come to cause trouble, but on the other hand this arguably the most tribal of sports around the world which is why segregation is so important. In this case we were lucky to see the Koln supporters coming for a good time and to support their team, but other clubs have a much deeper hooligan side which would have caused massive problems for fans with families and so I can see both points of views.
The ramifications will go on throughout the next few weeks as UEFA come into things and more and more people write their opinion on the matter. It is likely that UEFA will come down hard on Arsenal and Koln, but it will be interesting if other clubs decide to follow the Koln fans route in the coming months ahead.
On Friday we have the return of the Premier League which culminates in two big games on Sunday as four of the top seven face one another. Games keep coming thick and fast in September in a busy month before the next international break which begins in early October and so this is already a time when rotation will be rife.
Next week we have the English League Cup where many managers will change their starting line ups and then we have another two rounds of domestic action around Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League.
Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: With Brighton earning promotion to the Premier League last season, there will be a few more south coast derby games to be played and this is the first of them this season. Brighton and Bournemouth may usually fight it out for the summer tourist season on the beaches, but there are an important three Premier League points on the line when they open up this weekend's action on Friday Night Football.
It is a big game for Bournemouth who are trying to earn their first points of the season having lost all 4 Premier League games. They were unfortunate to lose 1-2 against Manchester City in their last home game, but overall Bournemouth have not played that well and the 0-2 loss to Watford here was a particularly poor result.
They have won 14 of their 38 home Premier League games over the last couple of seasons though and Bournemouth have generally been better against the weaker teams in the Premier League. Last season Bournemouth won 9 out of 19 League games at home and 7 of those wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.
I do think Bournemouth are better than what they have shown so far and I do expect this side to score goals, even if they have failed to get going on that front in the 2017/18 season. Underestimating Brighton shouldn't be an issue either as Brighton have earned 4 points so far and come into the game unbeaten in 3 in all competitions.
The win over West Brom last weekend will make Brighton feel they belong at this level and adds to the point they earned at Watford. However you have to wonder if this side has enough goals in the squad and that will be a challenge for them until January at least when Chris Hughton may be able to bring in some reinforcements.
The lack of goals may show up here even if Brighton have made up for that by looking a little more organised defensively. That does make them a dangerous opponent for Bournemouth who do allow teams the space to create chances against them, but I think this is ultimately the kind of game that Bournemouth should be winning.
It feels like a matter of time before Bournemouth find improvements in their results and a similar display to the one they produced against Manchester City should see that improvement begin here. Bournemouth have a decent home record against Brighton over the years and I will look for The Cherries to earn the three points on Friday.
The first goal will be crucial I feel, but I will look for Eddie Howe to find the right formula here and Bournemouth to win the fixture at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: There is going to be a real interest to see how Huddersfield Town bounce back from the disappointment of losing their first League game back in the top flight. We have seen many promoted clubs make strong starts to their Premier League seasons before hitting the wall following a loss and that is something David Wagner will be desperate to avoid.
No one will have any doubt of the importance of the home form for Huddersfield Town if they are going to surprisingly avoid an immediate return to the Championship. As much as they have earned the respect from their form in August, there is still a feeling that goals might be difficult to come by for The Terriers and that means relying on the defensive performances they have produced so far.
Conceding their first goals of the new season in the Premier League will have dented that confidence and I think Leicester City are a dangerous team for Huddersfield Town to face. With more expectation to get forward at home, Leicester City play the kind of away football that could see them threaten Huddersfield Town in this fixture with the pacy counter attack they employ.
Leicester City have played much better under Craig Shakespeare as they have gone back to the basics which saw them win 11 out of 19 away League games two seasons ago. They won 2 of their last 5 Premier League away games last season and should have won at Arsenal on the opening weekend of this one.
Goals haven't been a problem for Leicester City under Craig Shakespeare and I think this is a side that is better than their points suggest as they have been through a difficult start to the fixtures. With the talent they have on the counter, I can see Leicester City causing problems for Huddersfield Town in this one and I do think they are capable of winning here.
My fear for Huddersfield Town is that they will struggle to match the goals that Leicester City can produce and I will back the latter on the Asian Handicap which will return half a stake if the match does end in a draw.
Liverpool v Burnley Pick: Roy Keane was brutal in his assessment of what to expect from Liverpool this season when it comes to winning the biggest prizes, but his verdict has only been highlighted as a former Manchester United Captain in my opinion. Keane is far from the only one who has been heavily critical of the Liverpool defensive performances with former Liverpool players Jamie Carragher and Graeme Souness also making their disdain clear.
The poor defensive performances over the last week have really highlighted the problem for Liverpool having conceded 7 goals to Manchester City and Sevilla combined. However this weekend they are not facing a team with the same kind of quality in the final third and Liverpool have kept a couple of clean sheets at Anfield in the Premier League.
Missing Sadio Mane is a clear blow for Liverpool's attacking intent, especially as Philippe Coutinho looked short of match fitness in his cameo during the week against Sevilla. The Brazilian was welcomed back by the crowd, but Jurgen Klopp may decide to begin Daniel Sturridge rather than Coutinho in this one although Liverpool will still be really strong going forward.
They should cause problems for a Burnley side who will miss the presence of Tom Heaton in goal, although Sean Dyche's men have really played well so far this season. They may have ridden their luck to beat Crystal Palace last weekend, but Burnley have to be respected for the win at Chelsea and the draw at Tottenham Hotspur.
That is much better form than they had for much of last season away from home, although I have to give Burnley credit for at least being competitive. Only 5 of their 19 away games saw Burnley lose by more than a couple of goals and so this is a side that will be tough to beat.
However Liverpool are a rampant side at Anfield and the key for Burnley is to try and stay in the game early on. That may be difficult with a new goalkeeper between the sticks which may make them a little more edgy than if Heaton was there and I do think Liverpool may prove too strong.
9 of Liverpool's 12 home League wins came by more than a single goal margin and they have already thumped a poor Arsenal side at Anfield. This one will likely be tight at the end with Burnley expected to cause some problems going forward, but they will have to defend a lot better than they did against Crystal Palace and I will back Liverpool to win and cover the Asian Handicap even without Sadio Mane.
Watford v Manchester City Pick: This past week has shown what Manchester City can do when they turn on the style, although the win over Liverpool perhaps flattered them in what was a close game before Sadio Mane's sending off. On the other hand Manchester City were anything but flattered when hammering Dutch Champions Feyenoord 0-4 during the week in a game where they could have scored double that amount.
There are plenty of options for Pep Guardiola when it comes to picking his starting eleven, but his team should be fresh having coasted to the win on Wednesday. The last week has not been the most taxing for the players and so Manchester City are rightly set as big favourites to win here.
That might be disrespecting Watford who have played well under Marco Silva and look like they can cause problems for any team they face. Silva's Hull City also performed very well at home under his watch last season and Watford have already held Liverpool to a draw here this season.
Watford have not really competed against the top teams in previous seasons with a couple of exceptions to that rule. It is only a few months since they were hammered 0-5 by Manchester City on this ground, but the current Watford team look much more confident and are playing for their manager unlike their reaction on the final day of last season.
The Hornets have only failed to score in the game against Brighton when reduced to ten men very early on, but I think they can cause Manchester City one or two problems in this one. I certainly expect more positive attacking intention than Feyenoord produced and Watford will have seen how Bournemouth gave Pep Guardiola's men difficulties.
Expect this Watford team to look to take advantage of the counter attack with some pace in the forward areas and I do think they are capable of breaching the Manchester City back line. Set pieces will also be important for them, although it is hard to imagine Watford keeping Manchester City from scoring here too.
Marco Silva's teams have been strong at home, including Hull City, but this is a big challenge for him and Watford this week. The Asian Handicap is harder to read as Watford do look more competitive under the Portuguese manager, while they have played with confidence.
However I think this Manchester City team have been very strong and having a small interest in them winning a match in which both teams score looks worth taking on.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: At first glance a lot of people would probably suggest that this game has the makings of being the last one to be shown on any highlight programme you may watch on Saturday evening. West Brom are far from the most glamorous teams in the Premier League, while West Ham United had been out of form prior to the win over Huddersfield Town on Monday night.
However I think the layers are taking a chance by offering at least three goals to be shared out at odds against here.
For starters this has been a fixture that has produced goals with the last 3 overall seeing at least three goals shared out as well as the last 3 played at The Hawthorns.
West Brom have tended to be a better scoring team at home which should mean they go on the attack against a West Ham United side that have conceded 10 goals in 3 away games this season. Even a poor display from Huddersfield Town saw them open up West Ham United for a couple of big chances and so West Brom have to be feeling confident of their chances of scoring one or two goals.
On the other hand, the strong defensive performances of the opening 2 Premier League games by West Brom have not looked so good over the last couple of games. They are facing a West Ham United team who have Andy Carroll back to pose more problems for defences and a team who have created chances this season even if the results have been disappointing.
13 of the 19 West Ham United away League games last season featured at least three goals each time and the same has happened in all 3 away games this season. With the fixture being a high scoring one in the last couple of years, the same may happen here, and it certainly shouldn't be an odds against price against a West Brom team who saw 9 of 19 home League games end with three or more goals shared out last season too.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City Pick: I am not one who really believes Tottenham Hotspur were 'cursed' playing games at Wembley Stadium, but I do think the players will take time getting comfortable in their surroundings. It isn't helped by the fact that away teams will visit Wembley Stadium and the players should automatically raise their game at playing at such a famous venue and that is likely to be a bigger factor than any 'curse' when Tottenham Hotspur finish with a worse record than they had at White Hart Lane last season.
To be fair, Tottenham Hotspur could not have done much better than winning 17 of 19 home games like they did last season. They have failed to win any of their 2 Premier League games here, but Tottenham Hotspur have perhaps been unfortunate in both and that does not bode well for Swansea City.
Last season Swansea City were beaten easily by Tottenham Hotspur in both Premier League games and have lost their two best players since then. Renato Sanches and Wilfried Bony will need some time before they are at their very best and it all seems to be adding up to a difficult day for Swansea City in the capital.
Swansea City are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions, but only the draw at Manchester United has come against one of the top teams in England. They are definitely facing one of those on Saturday and Tottenham Hotspur should be confident after dismissing Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at Wembley Stadium during the week.
Harry Kane has scored four goals in his last couple of games for Spurs and I do think they are going to be too strong for Swansea City. Tottenham Hotspur did win half of their 8 games following a European match last season and I think they can earn back to back wins at Wembley Stadium on Saturday and by a fairly comfortable margin so will look to back Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: This is a big London derby for both Chelsea and Arsenal who both have different things to prove this weekend. Chelsea had a disappointing opening weekend defeat to Burnley, but they have won 4 in a row since then and now can lay down a marker to show they are ready to defend their Premier League title they won last May.
On the other hand Arsenal have to show their defeat to Liverpool last month was an exception to the performances they will produce in the big games this season. The problem is that the level they produced that day at Anfield has been more common in big games involving Arsenal than not and The Gunners will be under pressure to show something different here.
Arsenal have won just 2 of their last 18 away games against teams that have finished in the top seven in the Premier League over the last three seasons. Last season they were beaten in 5 of 6 games at the top seven teams and there have been enough performances like they produced in the 4-0 loss at Liverpool to make the fans worry for these kinds of games.
This has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent years as they have suffered 5 consecutive losses at Stamford Bridge and the last 4 of those have come by two or more goals on the day. With Chelsea showing improvement and getting back to a full squad of players to pick from, it is hard to imagine Arsenal turning that around here on Sunday.
The away side are coming in with a little more confidence having won back to back games this week, but Arsenal have lost 8 of their last 12 away games in all competitions including both played in the Premier League this season.
It does feel Chelsea are the stronger team both in the tactics and the quality they can depend upon. I just can't see Arsenal avoiding the mistakes at the back that have blighted them in many big games and I am going to back Chelsea to secure the three points on Sunday.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: The Premier League fixture list has been kind to open the season for Manchester United and Jose Mourinho's squad have taken advantage of that, although they will feel two points were dropped last week at Stoke City. This is the first time that Manchester United will play a side that finished in the top half last season and this is a chance for the side to show they are genuine title challengers.
Last season Manchester United won 5 of 18 games against teams that finished in the top half and that was a big reason they failed to make the top four in the Premier League. The form at Old Trafford generally wasn't good enough either and so this is a big game for Manchester United despite how poorly Everton have been playing.
It is one thing losing 3 consecutive games and conceding 8 goals without scoring one of your own- but it is another all together when none of the defeats have flattered you and could have been a lot worse on another day.
That is where Everton are after losing 2-0 at Chelsea, 0-3 at home against Tottenham Hotspur and then 3-0 in Italy against Atalanta. Despite the money invested in the squad, Everton were extremely poor in all three of those games and they could have been beaten by a lot wider margins in all of those defeats.
Both games between these teams were close last season with the home team needing late equalisers to earn a draw. You also have to expect Everton are going to be better than they have been in recent games, but they won't have a lot of time to prepare for this one and I am looking for Manchester United to take advantage of the lack of confidence Ronald Koeman's men.
The loss of Paul Pogba will be felt in games, but I think Jose Mourinho has options in this home game and I think Manchester United will prove too strong. Romelu Lukaku should get the better of Wayne Rooney in a fixture that features strikers that have swapped teams during the summer transfer window and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough to win this one.
With the way Everton have been playing, Manchester United could win their 4th game in a row at Old Trafford in the 2017/18 season and another by at least two goals. I have to think Everton cannot defend as poorly as they have in their last three games, but Manchester United are in decent form and I expect them to be too strong for Everton during the ninety minutes and can cover the Asian Handicap.
Millwall v Leeds United Pick: This has proven to be a tough ground for Leeds United to visit in recent years, but the current crop of players have to be feeling confident of snapping a run of 7 losses in 8 previous visits to the New Den. It has been three years since Millwall last hosted Leeds United, but the latter are much improved having come close to a top six finish last season and following that up with a decent start to the 2017/18 season.
Thomas Christiansen has come in as manager and Leeds United have been playing very well under him, particularly away from home where they have won all 3 League games they have played and scored at least twice in each win.
None of the sides they have faced are expected to be good enough to finish in the top six, but Millwall are one who will likely be fighting against relegation this season. Millwall have played much better at home having scored 8 of their 10 League goals at the New Den and that makes them a team to respect.
Millwall have also been much stronger defensively at home and this is not going to be an easy game for either them or Leeds United. The layers understand that and have a big price on picking a winner, but that looks a difficult option here.
The first goal looks to be so important, but I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to keep their positive run going. They haven't played well here which is a concern in backing them, but you get a decent price on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in case of a draw.
Backing Leeds United with that security looks a decent price for a side that have scored at least twice in each away game this season. Leeds United are playing with plenty of belief at the moment too and I will look for them to keep the good run going despite the issues they've had in facing Millwall at the New Den.
Sheffield United v Norwich City Pick: The current form of these two teams does give the edge to Sheffield United who have been very good at home compared with Norwich City who have conceded four goals in their last couple of away games, both unsurprisingly ended in defeat.
Sheffield United have won 10 of their last 11 home games going back to last season, while Norwich City have won 1 of 11 away games.
All of that points to Sheffield United being the right side to back, but you have to remember that this is a side that were playing in League One last season and Norwich City are only eighteen months removed from being a Premier League club. The Sheffield United home wins have been solid, but only the one against Derby County can be considered against one of the better teams at this level, and that does raise some concerns.
However this is a Norwich City side who were beaten 4-0 at newly promoted Millwall and so I am very much behind Sheffield United being the right side. They look a big price to back in the win-draw-win market, but I think they still look an appealing price on the Asian Handicap where the stake will be returned if the match ends in a draw.
The draw is a possibility if Norwich City play up to the level they can, but I would lean towards Sheffield United having the edge at Bramall Lane in this one.
Barnsley v Aston Villa Pick: The fans have begun to turn on Steve Bruce as his management of Aston Villa has failed to produce the results that would be expected considering the kind of investment that has been made in the club. The pressure is on Bruce to put some wins together and start moving up the League table if he is to remain as manager of Aston Villa, but I am not sure he will get his wish to start a positive run here.
This has been a tough venue for teams to earn victories since Barnsley moved back into the Championship, although the test for the club is turning some of the 11 home draws into wins this time around. Barnsley have made a positive start in doing that with 4 wins from 5 games here in all competitions and confidence has to be flowing.
Barnsley have not enjoyed much success against Aston Villa at home having failed to beat them in 9 attempts, but they did earn a draw last season to snap a run of 5 consecutive home losses to Villa. They also won at Villa Park and I think Barnsley have a system that works for them and has proven to be very effective.
4 of their 6 home losses last season did come against sides that finished above Barnsley in the League table, but Aston Villa have not exactly lit things up on their travels. Aston Villa have won 4 of their 26 away Championship games over the last thirteen months and I think they look awfully short to win here when you factor in that poor record.
Add in the fact that Barnsley have lost just 7 of 26 home League games in the last thirteen months themselves and I would be surprised if the home side are not capable of at least earning a point here. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals in recent home games with 13 goals scored in 5 games at Oakwell in all competitions and I will look to back them with the start on the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Bournemouth @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barnsley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 9-8-2, + 1.52 Units (37 Units Staked, + 4.11% Yield)
Tuesday, 15 September 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (September 15-17)
Don't you just hate really busy weeks when it feels like time is just running away from you at a rate of knots?
That's how my last couple of weeks have felt as I have been rushing around with a few other aspects of my life which have seemingly made me a little busier than planned. This week is no different with birthday parties taking care of the back end of the week, but before that we have Match Day 1 of the Champions and Europa Leagues which are played from Tuesday through Thursday.
I broke down how I saw the Champions League Group Stage going after the draw was made last month and that can be read here.
You can also read a few thoughts that came out of the weekend football here.
Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are two markets that I have concentrated for this game and both are obviously backing Real Madrid to beat Shakhtar Donetsk fairly comfortably.
I did consider backing a free-scoring Real Madrid to win this game by at least three goals knowing that 8 of their last 12 home games in the Group Stage have seen that number surpassed. Add in the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk have not travelled very well in recent years and been hammered at Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich and backing Real Madrid to win by at least three goals looks appealing.
However, instead I am going to back Real Madrid to keep their fourth clean sheet of the season and record a win with a clean sheet for the third time in a row. Rafa Benitez is known for that side of his tactics and he will want to make sure Real Madrid give nothing for Shakhtar Donetsk to be encouraged by, while the Ukrainian team have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away games in the Champions League.
It would be stunning if Real Madrid didn't score and they have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League too. Defensively teams like Real Madrid are always liable to create a problem for themselves as they push so far forward and the counter-attack in this one would be a concern as Shakhtar Donetsk do have pace in the forward areas.
Even with that in mind, I fancy Real Madrid to keep another clean sheet and make sure the fans don't have to think about missing out on David De Gea and I'll back that to happen.
Wolfsburg v CSKA Moscow Pick: You have to think both Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow have big ambitions of getting out of a Group that shouldn't really intimidate either, although questions about a lack of experience about the former and poor away results for the latter have to be addressed.
It was no surprise that Wolfsburg were going to have teams sniffing around their best players after a strong season, but keeping the majority of the squad together keeps the belief. They have made a positive start to the Bundesliga, although bridging the gap to Bayern Munich looks unlikely, and Wolfsburg had a confident run in the Europa League last season.
This club also beat CSKA Moscow at home in their first Champions League experience six seasons ago and the Germans have been to confident they can do that again.
They won't want to underestimate CSKA Moscow who have been flying in Russia, although have slipped in their last couple of games. There are goals in the CSKA Moscow side which makes them dangerous, but recent away struggles in the Champions League are hard to ignore.
Wolfsburg can use their run in the Europa League last season to inspire them in this first game and I think they just hold the edge with the game being played at home. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored in this one, but Wolfsburg can earn an important three points ahead of the trip to Manchester United on Match Day 2.
PSV Eindhoven v Manchester United Pick: If you go back a few years, a game against Dutch opposition in the Champions League would be a difficult task for any team in Europe. However, clubs from this country have certainly found it tough to mix with the top teams these days as they are raided for their talent far earlier than previously and the talent gap becomes very tough to bridge.
One of PSV Eindhoven's big talents will be playing on Tuesday, but Memphis Depay is now in the red colours of Manchester United, while another key piece of the title winning squad of last season, Georginio Wijnaldum, has moved to Newcastle United.
Wijnaldum will also be in the stadium on Tuesday as the match has been described as farewell for him with the player expected to be applauded onto the pitch, but losing those two key players from a side that won their first title in seven years is difficult to take.
Manchester United haven't exactly been setting the world alight with their play, but Louis Van Gaal will know plenty about PSV Eindhoven and I expect him to find the right tactics to earn a positive result. It hasn't always been easy for Manchester United to win games in the Netherlands, but they look to have the superior squad at their disposal even in the absence of Wayne Rooney.
It won't be an easy game for Manchester United as PSV Eindhoven will be confident thanks to some recent strong performances at home. However, they have also lost their last 2 home European games and Manchester United can get off to the perfect start in the Champions League Group by earning the three points here.
Manchester City v Juventus Pick: I mentioned last season that it felt like Juventus had a very small window in which to win the Champions League and they have suffered a terrible hangover from the 3-1 loss to Barcelona in Berlin.
The likes of Arturo Vidal, Andrea Pirlo and Carlos Tevez were all a huge part of the success Juventus had last season in the Champions League and in recent years in Italy. However, all three have moved on now and the new signings are still trying to find their feet for Juventus who have surprisingly earned just a single point from their first three League games.
The dominance in Italy is unlikely to be over, but Juventus are clearly not the same side of three months ago and they look a vulnerable team in this 'Group of Death' along with Manchester City, Sevilla and Borussia Monchengladbach.
Out of those four sides, Manchester City have clearly made the best start to the new season and they can underline that by beating last year's Finalists Juventus and earn a priceless three points. Recent struggles in the Champions League is not what the owners would have expected after pumping in huge amounts of money and this represents a good chance for Manchester City to win the Group, earn a relatively 'easy' Second Round tie and reach the Quarter Finals for the first time.
It is certainly easier said than done and the absence of Sergio Aguero is a big blow. Good news is that both David Silva and Raheem Sterling are expected to return for the game on Tuesday and their presence means a creative spark and pace to hurt Juventus on the counter-attack.
Aguero is a hard man to replace, but Manchester City have the bit between their teeth at the moment and I like their chances to win this game even at odds on.
Roma v Barcelona Pick: Juventus produced something of a surprising run to the Champions League Final last season as Italian sides hadn't really shown the quality to mix with the best teams in European football in recent seasons. That kind of showed up in the manner of Roma's two defeats to Bayern Munich in the Group Stage last season while they were also beaten by Manchester City at home and now they face the current European Champions.
It hasn't been the most impressive start by Barcelona to the new season with some up and down performances, but the 1-2 win at Atletico Madrid at the weekend was their best result so far. It has been a pragmatic beginning to the season as Barcelona look to shake off the cobwebs and rediscover the free-flowing style that saw them win it all last season, but that victory at the Vicente Calderon could be a spark for them.
Barcelona have been very strong away from home in the Champions League as they do tend to get the space to play their football, but trips to Italy have been far from easy for them. They have failed to win their last three games in this country, all against AC Milan, and only won 1 of their last 6 in Italy.
However, I expect that to change against a Roma team who were beaten fairly comfortably by both Bayern Munich and Manchester City in the Group Stage last season. As well as Roma have played in domestic games, they don't have that experience in European games and failing to win their last 4 home games in Europe has to be a concern for them. The fact that three of those games have ended in losses of at least a two goal margin in each has to be another worry against a fearsome Barcelona front three.
I do think Barcelona are the more likely winners and their away wins in recent Champions League years tend to come by more than a single goal. Roma have had their problems at home in Europe themselves and I can see Barcelona coming here and leaving with a comfortable win on the night and already make a big step towards the Last 16.
Dinamo Zagreb v Arsenal Pick: In a Group that contains Bayern Munich and Olympiacos, Arsenal can't really afford to drop points at Dinamo Zagreb who do look the weakest team in the section. Some positive results in the Premier League looks to have restored confidence in the side and I am expecting a strong performance in the Croatian capital with Arsenal leaving with the three points.
You can't dismiss Dinamo Zagreb without pointing out that any team on a 41 unbeaten run is going to be confident, while they don't lose too many at home either. However, those positive results have come in domestic competition where Dinamo Zagreb hold a significant advantage over their rivals, but that is not the case in the Champions League as this club is one of the 'minnows'.
That has seen Dinamo Zagreb fail to win any of their last 15 Group games and while they have only lost 2 of their last 9 in this competition at home, most of those games have come against teams significantly weaker than Arsenal.
The latter have also found their groove a little bit in recent away games in the Champions League and have won their last 3 games on their travels in this competition at Anderlecht, Galatasaray and Monaco, all clubs considered stronger than Dinamo Zagreb as far as I am concerned.
No games in the Champions League are ever easy because teams generally are very confident from their domestic form, but Arsenal should be too good for Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday. If Arsenal begin to show some clinical finishing in front of goal, they can win this by at least a couple of goals too and earn the three points they will be expecting the other two teams in the Group to earn too.
Olympiacos v Bayern Munich Pick: Anyone who thinks Arsenal and Bayern Munich are going to waltz through their Champions League Group could be in for a rude awakening over the coming couple of months, especially if Olympiacos can continue producing the results at home in this competition as they have done.
It is a big test for Olympiacos to open the Group at home against Bayern Munich, but they have beaten the likes of Manchester United here and beat both Atletico Madrid and Juventus here last season. They are not to be underestimated and Bayern Munich look incredibly short to win here considering they have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in the Champions League and in spectacular fashion too.
Losses at Manchester City and Barcelona can be forgiven, but Porto beat Bayern Munich 3-1 in the Quarter Finals First Leg last season and I do think Olympiacos are better than Porto. Olympiacos also have a habit of scoring at home and have done that in 12 consecutive games in the Champions League, but have only kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
It is that record that does appeal to me in this game- I think Olympiacos will give Bayern Munich something to think about at the back and their recent home record of winning games in the Champions League will give them confidence they can rattle their more illustrious opponents.
Bayern Munich have an attacking edge to their game which can't be ignored, but defensively they haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in 9 of their last 13 away games in the Champions League. They have failed to do that in both away games played this season in all competitions and Bayern Munich have 1 clean sheet in their last 7 away games in all competitions.
The layers seem to be expecting goals, but they are taking some chance that it is odds against both teams score at least once in this one and I will be backing that outcome from the game.
Valencia v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Group H looks like one that will be decided by the top three teams in the section and that means home games are vitally important. Valencia know they can't rely upon other team mistakes to progress and winning this first game at home will put them in a strong position in the Group after just one game having beaten a rival for a top two spot in Zenit St Petersburg.
It has been a difficult start for Valencia in Spain, but they have beaten Monaco in the Play Off Round of the Champions League to reach the Group Stage, an impressive result considering the latter reached the Quarter Finals last season. It will be in the Mestalla that Valencia will lay the foundation for Qualifying into the Last 16, although the side do have some injury issues and a lack of experience at this level.
Valencia are unbeaten in their last 6 European games in front of their own supporters and they have won 4 of those games. They are also unbeaten in 16 at home in all competitions and Valencia have won 12 of those games so there will be confidence they can add to Zenit St Petersburg's poor travelling record in Europe.
The Russian Champions have lost their last 4 away games in European football but they have come into this match having rode a 3 game winning run on their travels to a 2-2 draw at CSKA Moscow.
No one should be underestimating Zenit St Petersburg who have sprung a couple of surprise wins in the Group Stage of the Champions League in recent seasons. They have lost 4 of their last 6 away games in the Groups, but Zenit have won the other two games at Porto and Benfica so Valencia should be aware a surprise result can occur, but I think it will be tough for them to get that here.
There are goals in the Valencia team and I think Andre Villas-Boas will be looking to defend deep and keep Zenit St Petersburg from losing this game. Giving Valencia the time to develop their attacks might not be the right way to play the game and I think the Spanish side will find a way to record a narrow win and earn an important three points in the Group.
Ajax v Celtic Pick: Two former European Cup winners have seen how far they have dropped off the elite in that competition when beaten by Rapid Vienna and Malmo in the Champions League Qualifiers this season.
That means Ajax and Celtic have had to settle for a run in the Europa League although I am not sure too many will be rushing to back either side to win it. They are both in a difficult Group which includes Fenerbahce and Molde, two more clubs that began this European season in the Champions League and that makes every home game very important if the clubs have real expectations of reaching the Last 32.
I don't think Ajax or Celtic will be intimidated by the other, but I think home field will give Ajax the edge and I expect them to find a way to win the game.
Ajax have played very well at home over the last few months and 3 straight wins off the back of a Rapid Vienna defeat shows the character that the Dutch team have. It can't be ignored that Celtic have a poor away record in European games in recent years too and I do think Ajax will find a narrow victory in this one.
Fenerbahce v Molde Pick: There does look to be a difference in talent that Fenerbahce and Molde can put out on the field in this opening game of the Group Stage of the Europa League. Talent isn't always enough if the attitude isn't right, but Fenerbahce have been producing plenty of wins at home and look to be in the right frame of mind to take the game to Molde.
Inconsistent results have prevented Molde from really pushing up the League table in Norway and they might be seen as a surprising participant in the Group Stage after beating Standard Liege. However, the 3-1 loss in Belgium shows that Molde can be put under pressure by the better teams in the Europa League and Fenerbahce look like one of those.
This is a game that Fenerbahce should be spending the majority of their time going forward and creating chances and I think they prove too good for Molde.
Fenerbahce are a team that should score plenty of goals at home and I like them to win this by a couple of goals.
Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: Rapid Vienna and Villarreal look to be the two top teams in this Group of the Europa League and I think they can bring the entertainment for the fans who will be in attendance on Thursday.
Unlike teams in England, Spanish teams love the Europa League and Villarreal may feel they are amongst the favourites out of the teams involved at this Stage of the competition. There are going to be eight teams falling out of the Champions League which can produce some dangers, but Villarreal will look to follow Sevilla in making it a third Spanish winner in a row.
The first match in Vienna will show Villarreal how much of a chance they have of making that happen because Rapid Vienna look and under-rated team. Ajax were stunned in the Champions League and Shakhtar Donetsk barely hung on against them, although Rapid Vienna will want to improve at home if they are to have a deep run in this competition.
Both teams look like they want to attack and both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games in European competition at home/away respectively. Goals might be the order of the day when they meet on Thursday too and looks worth backing at odds against.
Tottenham Hotspur v Qarabag Pick: Mauricio Pochettino might want to study the film of the Celtic and Qarabag game from the Champions League and also of the trouble Qarabag caused for the likes of Inter Milan, Dnipro and Saint-Etienne in the Group Stage of this competition last season.
He will soon know that Tottenham Hotspur can't afford to take this match lightly.
While I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong on the day, I would keep a keen eye out for team news as Pochettino will be looking to keep his squad fresh for the Premier League games too. They look short in both the Premier League and Europa League to really reach their goals, but Tottenham Hotspur fans will be expecting the side to give this competition a proper go this time around.
The Last 32 exit to Fiorentina was disappointing, but Spurs should be able to get out this Group as long as they remain focused on the task at hand. They can't afford to drop points against Qarabag with Anderlecht and Monaco making up the numbers and I expect Tottenham Hotspur can respond, even if they have looked a little uncomfortable going forward.
Harry Kane might have been boosted by his return to goalscoring form when with England on international duty and this is a long trip for Qarabag. Spurs have to focus and not take the result for granted and doing that should lead to a victory by two goals at least.
MY PICKS: Real Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolfsburg @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympiacos-Bayern Munich Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Valencia @ 1.90 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajax @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 13-10-2, + 9 Units (45.5 Units Staked, + 19.78% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
That's how my last couple of weeks have felt as I have been rushing around with a few other aspects of my life which have seemingly made me a little busier than planned. This week is no different with birthday parties taking care of the back end of the week, but before that we have Match Day 1 of the Champions and Europa Leagues which are played from Tuesday through Thursday.
I broke down how I saw the Champions League Group Stage going after the draw was made last month and that can be read here.
You can also read a few thoughts that came out of the weekend football here.
Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are two markets that I have concentrated for this game and both are obviously backing Real Madrid to beat Shakhtar Donetsk fairly comfortably.
I did consider backing a free-scoring Real Madrid to win this game by at least three goals knowing that 8 of their last 12 home games in the Group Stage have seen that number surpassed. Add in the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk have not travelled very well in recent years and been hammered at Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich and backing Real Madrid to win by at least three goals looks appealing.
However, instead I am going to back Real Madrid to keep their fourth clean sheet of the season and record a win with a clean sheet for the third time in a row. Rafa Benitez is known for that side of his tactics and he will want to make sure Real Madrid give nothing for Shakhtar Donetsk to be encouraged by, while the Ukrainian team have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away games in the Champions League.
It would be stunning if Real Madrid didn't score and they have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League too. Defensively teams like Real Madrid are always liable to create a problem for themselves as they push so far forward and the counter-attack in this one would be a concern as Shakhtar Donetsk do have pace in the forward areas.
Even with that in mind, I fancy Real Madrid to keep another clean sheet and make sure the fans don't have to think about missing out on David De Gea and I'll back that to happen.
Wolfsburg v CSKA Moscow Pick: You have to think both Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow have big ambitions of getting out of a Group that shouldn't really intimidate either, although questions about a lack of experience about the former and poor away results for the latter have to be addressed.
It was no surprise that Wolfsburg were going to have teams sniffing around their best players after a strong season, but keeping the majority of the squad together keeps the belief. They have made a positive start to the Bundesliga, although bridging the gap to Bayern Munich looks unlikely, and Wolfsburg had a confident run in the Europa League last season.
This club also beat CSKA Moscow at home in their first Champions League experience six seasons ago and the Germans have been to confident they can do that again.
They won't want to underestimate CSKA Moscow who have been flying in Russia, although have slipped in their last couple of games. There are goals in the CSKA Moscow side which makes them dangerous, but recent away struggles in the Champions League are hard to ignore.
Wolfsburg can use their run in the Europa League last season to inspire them in this first game and I think they just hold the edge with the game being played at home. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored in this one, but Wolfsburg can earn an important three points ahead of the trip to Manchester United on Match Day 2.
PSV Eindhoven v Manchester United Pick: If you go back a few years, a game against Dutch opposition in the Champions League would be a difficult task for any team in Europe. However, clubs from this country have certainly found it tough to mix with the top teams these days as they are raided for their talent far earlier than previously and the talent gap becomes very tough to bridge.
One of PSV Eindhoven's big talents will be playing on Tuesday, but Memphis Depay is now in the red colours of Manchester United, while another key piece of the title winning squad of last season, Georginio Wijnaldum, has moved to Newcastle United.
Wijnaldum will also be in the stadium on Tuesday as the match has been described as farewell for him with the player expected to be applauded onto the pitch, but losing those two key players from a side that won their first title in seven years is difficult to take.
Manchester United haven't exactly been setting the world alight with their play, but Louis Van Gaal will know plenty about PSV Eindhoven and I expect him to find the right tactics to earn a positive result. It hasn't always been easy for Manchester United to win games in the Netherlands, but they look to have the superior squad at their disposal even in the absence of Wayne Rooney.
It won't be an easy game for Manchester United as PSV Eindhoven will be confident thanks to some recent strong performances at home. However, they have also lost their last 2 home European games and Manchester United can get off to the perfect start in the Champions League Group by earning the three points here.
Manchester City v Juventus Pick: I mentioned last season that it felt like Juventus had a very small window in which to win the Champions League and they have suffered a terrible hangover from the 3-1 loss to Barcelona in Berlin.
The likes of Arturo Vidal, Andrea Pirlo and Carlos Tevez were all a huge part of the success Juventus had last season in the Champions League and in recent years in Italy. However, all three have moved on now and the new signings are still trying to find their feet for Juventus who have surprisingly earned just a single point from their first three League games.
The dominance in Italy is unlikely to be over, but Juventus are clearly not the same side of three months ago and they look a vulnerable team in this 'Group of Death' along with Manchester City, Sevilla and Borussia Monchengladbach.
Out of those four sides, Manchester City have clearly made the best start to the new season and they can underline that by beating last year's Finalists Juventus and earn a priceless three points. Recent struggles in the Champions League is not what the owners would have expected after pumping in huge amounts of money and this represents a good chance for Manchester City to win the Group, earn a relatively 'easy' Second Round tie and reach the Quarter Finals for the first time.
It is certainly easier said than done and the absence of Sergio Aguero is a big blow. Good news is that both David Silva and Raheem Sterling are expected to return for the game on Tuesday and their presence means a creative spark and pace to hurt Juventus on the counter-attack.
Aguero is a hard man to replace, but Manchester City have the bit between their teeth at the moment and I like their chances to win this game even at odds on.
Roma v Barcelona Pick: Juventus produced something of a surprising run to the Champions League Final last season as Italian sides hadn't really shown the quality to mix with the best teams in European football in recent seasons. That kind of showed up in the manner of Roma's two defeats to Bayern Munich in the Group Stage last season while they were also beaten by Manchester City at home and now they face the current European Champions.
It hasn't been the most impressive start by Barcelona to the new season with some up and down performances, but the 1-2 win at Atletico Madrid at the weekend was their best result so far. It has been a pragmatic beginning to the season as Barcelona look to shake off the cobwebs and rediscover the free-flowing style that saw them win it all last season, but that victory at the Vicente Calderon could be a spark for them.
Barcelona have been very strong away from home in the Champions League as they do tend to get the space to play their football, but trips to Italy have been far from easy for them. They have failed to win their last three games in this country, all against AC Milan, and only won 1 of their last 6 in Italy.
However, I expect that to change against a Roma team who were beaten fairly comfortably by both Bayern Munich and Manchester City in the Group Stage last season. As well as Roma have played in domestic games, they don't have that experience in European games and failing to win their last 4 home games in Europe has to be a concern for them. The fact that three of those games have ended in losses of at least a two goal margin in each has to be another worry against a fearsome Barcelona front three.
I do think Barcelona are the more likely winners and their away wins in recent Champions League years tend to come by more than a single goal. Roma have had their problems at home in Europe themselves and I can see Barcelona coming here and leaving with a comfortable win on the night and already make a big step towards the Last 16.
Dinamo Zagreb v Arsenal Pick: In a Group that contains Bayern Munich and Olympiacos, Arsenal can't really afford to drop points at Dinamo Zagreb who do look the weakest team in the section. Some positive results in the Premier League looks to have restored confidence in the side and I am expecting a strong performance in the Croatian capital with Arsenal leaving with the three points.
You can't dismiss Dinamo Zagreb without pointing out that any team on a 41 unbeaten run is going to be confident, while they don't lose too many at home either. However, those positive results have come in domestic competition where Dinamo Zagreb hold a significant advantage over their rivals, but that is not the case in the Champions League as this club is one of the 'minnows'.
That has seen Dinamo Zagreb fail to win any of their last 15 Group games and while they have only lost 2 of their last 9 in this competition at home, most of those games have come against teams significantly weaker than Arsenal.
The latter have also found their groove a little bit in recent away games in the Champions League and have won their last 3 games on their travels in this competition at Anderlecht, Galatasaray and Monaco, all clubs considered stronger than Dinamo Zagreb as far as I am concerned.
No games in the Champions League are ever easy because teams generally are very confident from their domestic form, but Arsenal should be too good for Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday. If Arsenal begin to show some clinical finishing in front of goal, they can win this by at least a couple of goals too and earn the three points they will be expecting the other two teams in the Group to earn too.
Olympiacos v Bayern Munich Pick: Anyone who thinks Arsenal and Bayern Munich are going to waltz through their Champions League Group could be in for a rude awakening over the coming couple of months, especially if Olympiacos can continue producing the results at home in this competition as they have done.
It is a big test for Olympiacos to open the Group at home against Bayern Munich, but they have beaten the likes of Manchester United here and beat both Atletico Madrid and Juventus here last season. They are not to be underestimated and Bayern Munich look incredibly short to win here considering they have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in the Champions League and in spectacular fashion too.
Losses at Manchester City and Barcelona can be forgiven, but Porto beat Bayern Munich 3-1 in the Quarter Finals First Leg last season and I do think Olympiacos are better than Porto. Olympiacos also have a habit of scoring at home and have done that in 12 consecutive games in the Champions League, but have only kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
It is that record that does appeal to me in this game- I think Olympiacos will give Bayern Munich something to think about at the back and their recent home record of winning games in the Champions League will give them confidence they can rattle their more illustrious opponents.
Bayern Munich have an attacking edge to their game which can't be ignored, but defensively they haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in 9 of their last 13 away games in the Champions League. They have failed to do that in both away games played this season in all competitions and Bayern Munich have 1 clean sheet in their last 7 away games in all competitions.
The layers seem to be expecting goals, but they are taking some chance that it is odds against both teams score at least once in this one and I will be backing that outcome from the game.
Valencia v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Group H looks like one that will be decided by the top three teams in the section and that means home games are vitally important. Valencia know they can't rely upon other team mistakes to progress and winning this first game at home will put them in a strong position in the Group after just one game having beaten a rival for a top two spot in Zenit St Petersburg.
It has been a difficult start for Valencia in Spain, but they have beaten Monaco in the Play Off Round of the Champions League to reach the Group Stage, an impressive result considering the latter reached the Quarter Finals last season. It will be in the Mestalla that Valencia will lay the foundation for Qualifying into the Last 16, although the side do have some injury issues and a lack of experience at this level.
Valencia are unbeaten in their last 6 European games in front of their own supporters and they have won 4 of those games. They are also unbeaten in 16 at home in all competitions and Valencia have won 12 of those games so there will be confidence they can add to Zenit St Petersburg's poor travelling record in Europe.
The Russian Champions have lost their last 4 away games in European football but they have come into this match having rode a 3 game winning run on their travels to a 2-2 draw at CSKA Moscow.
No one should be underestimating Zenit St Petersburg who have sprung a couple of surprise wins in the Group Stage of the Champions League in recent seasons. They have lost 4 of their last 6 away games in the Groups, but Zenit have won the other two games at Porto and Benfica so Valencia should be aware a surprise result can occur, but I think it will be tough for them to get that here.
There are goals in the Valencia team and I think Andre Villas-Boas will be looking to defend deep and keep Zenit St Petersburg from losing this game. Giving Valencia the time to develop their attacks might not be the right way to play the game and I think the Spanish side will find a way to record a narrow win and earn an important three points in the Group.
Ajax v Celtic Pick: Two former European Cup winners have seen how far they have dropped off the elite in that competition when beaten by Rapid Vienna and Malmo in the Champions League Qualifiers this season.
That means Ajax and Celtic have had to settle for a run in the Europa League although I am not sure too many will be rushing to back either side to win it. They are both in a difficult Group which includes Fenerbahce and Molde, two more clubs that began this European season in the Champions League and that makes every home game very important if the clubs have real expectations of reaching the Last 32.
I don't think Ajax or Celtic will be intimidated by the other, but I think home field will give Ajax the edge and I expect them to find a way to win the game.
Ajax have played very well at home over the last few months and 3 straight wins off the back of a Rapid Vienna defeat shows the character that the Dutch team have. It can't be ignored that Celtic have a poor away record in European games in recent years too and I do think Ajax will find a narrow victory in this one.
Fenerbahce v Molde Pick: There does look to be a difference in talent that Fenerbahce and Molde can put out on the field in this opening game of the Group Stage of the Europa League. Talent isn't always enough if the attitude isn't right, but Fenerbahce have been producing plenty of wins at home and look to be in the right frame of mind to take the game to Molde.
Inconsistent results have prevented Molde from really pushing up the League table in Norway and they might be seen as a surprising participant in the Group Stage after beating Standard Liege. However, the 3-1 loss in Belgium shows that Molde can be put under pressure by the better teams in the Europa League and Fenerbahce look like one of those.
This is a game that Fenerbahce should be spending the majority of their time going forward and creating chances and I think they prove too good for Molde.
Fenerbahce are a team that should score plenty of goals at home and I like them to win this by a couple of goals.
Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: Rapid Vienna and Villarreal look to be the two top teams in this Group of the Europa League and I think they can bring the entertainment for the fans who will be in attendance on Thursday.
Unlike teams in England, Spanish teams love the Europa League and Villarreal may feel they are amongst the favourites out of the teams involved at this Stage of the competition. There are going to be eight teams falling out of the Champions League which can produce some dangers, but Villarreal will look to follow Sevilla in making it a third Spanish winner in a row.
The first match in Vienna will show Villarreal how much of a chance they have of making that happen because Rapid Vienna look and under-rated team. Ajax were stunned in the Champions League and Shakhtar Donetsk barely hung on against them, although Rapid Vienna will want to improve at home if they are to have a deep run in this competition.
Both teams look like they want to attack and both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games in European competition at home/away respectively. Goals might be the order of the day when they meet on Thursday too and looks worth backing at odds against.
Tottenham Hotspur v Qarabag Pick: Mauricio Pochettino might want to study the film of the Celtic and Qarabag game from the Champions League and also of the trouble Qarabag caused for the likes of Inter Milan, Dnipro and Saint-Etienne in the Group Stage of this competition last season.
He will soon know that Tottenham Hotspur can't afford to take this match lightly.
While I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong on the day, I would keep a keen eye out for team news as Pochettino will be looking to keep his squad fresh for the Premier League games too. They look short in both the Premier League and Europa League to really reach their goals, but Tottenham Hotspur fans will be expecting the side to give this competition a proper go this time around.
The Last 32 exit to Fiorentina was disappointing, but Spurs should be able to get out this Group as long as they remain focused on the task at hand. They can't afford to drop points against Qarabag with Anderlecht and Monaco making up the numbers and I expect Tottenham Hotspur can respond, even if they have looked a little uncomfortable going forward.
Harry Kane might have been boosted by his return to goalscoring form when with England on international duty and this is a long trip for Qarabag. Spurs have to focus and not take the result for granted and doing that should lead to a victory by two goals at least.
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Wolfsburg @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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Valencia @ 1.90 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajax @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Update: 13-10-2, + 9 Units (45.5 Units Staked, + 19.78% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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