The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
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Showing posts with label August 19-21. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 19-21. Show all posts
Friday, 18 August 2017
Friday, 19 August 2016
Weekend Football Picks 2016 (August 19-21)
The first month of the 2016/17 season is already fast approaching a close although there are still two more rounds of Premier League fixtures to be played before the first international matches of the new season.
Usually I say you can't read too much into opening day results as some teams are not quite as fit as others while surprises seem to be common place. It was no different than usual in that regards as Hull City upset defending Champions Leicester City as a big home underdog, and Liverpool won at The Emirates Stadium as a big away underdog.
Diego Costa is still being vilified, defences in the Premier League still look short of the expected quality and the Division remains a competitive one in which any team can beat any other.
Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool all made winning starts to the new season and Manchester City also looked impressive in seeing off what was a clearly overwhelmed Steaua Bucharest side on Tuesday in the Champions League Play Off.
Next week we will see the draws for the Group Stages of the Champions League and Europa League, but let's crack on with the picks for this weekend.
The last two Augusts have put me behind the black ball when it comes to the season totals and while I have eventually recovered both times, I did not want to open with another poor month. Last weekend saw the picks produce a mixed result as the first three lost on Saturday, but the three made for Sunday and Monday all returned as winners.
That winning feeling continued during the midweek set of fixtures which saw the picks go 11-4 and give us a platform for a rare winning August.
I don't want to give anything away now so will be looking to keep the positives going through this weekend which also sees the Spanish and Italian top flights open their campaigns.
Of course we have Friday night football for the first time in England so this post will be the 'Featured Post' through the weekend for all the picks being made over the Leagues from Friday to Sunday.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge game to open the Premier League weekend as Jose Mourinho comes out at Old Trafford as the Manchester United manager for the first time in a competitive game. It should also be the second debut of Paul Pogba who returns from a suspension, while the likes of Eric Bailly, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are also in line for home debuts for their new club.
There should be plenty of positive feelings going into the game for Manchester United fans after an impressive 1-3 win at Bournemouth on the opening day, although this is a much tougher test on paper. No one will be underestimating Southampton who are unbeaten in 3 League visits to Old Trafford since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager of Manchester United and The Saints have won their last two by the same 0-1 scoreline.
Southampton also beat Jose Mourinho's Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season so the manager and Manchester United players will be well aware of the quality in the away dressing room. However it does have to be stated that Ronald Koeman has moved on as Southampton manager and Claude Puel is the new voice that needs to get the best out of a squad that has lost the likes of Victor Wanyama, Sado Mane and Graziano Pelle in the transfer window.
The last couple of years has seen plenty of talent leave St Mary's but Koeman's presence has kept things ticking along. With a new manager it is less clear as to whether Southampton can replace the quality they have lost and they did look a little short of confidence in their 1-1 home draw with Watford last weekend.
Playing at Old Trafford should get the best out of the players still at Southampton and the basis for their success will be a solid defensive platform. Keeping Jose Fonte would be huge for Southampton, while they do have the pace of Shane Long and Nathan Redmond to cause Manchester United problems on the counter attack.
Manchester United did have the 2nd best home record last season in the Premier League but only half of their 12 League wins came by more than a one goal margin. It did also take a big error from Simon Francis to help Manchester United open the scoring last week at The Vitality Stadium and I think Southampton will be better in defence than Bournemouth.
However I think the positives coming from the stands might just inspire Manchester United to finally break down Southampton and I will pick the home team to win by a single goal margin. Southampton have proved difficult for Manchester United to crack in recent seasons, but Zlatan Ibrahimovic might inspire a different result this time although I imagine it will be a tight game again.
Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: Manchester City looked very good during the week as they hammered Steaua Bucharest and virtually put themselves into the Champions League Group Stage. It would take something special for them to fail to make it after winning 0-5 away from home, but that result and performance might make Manchester City a little overrated for this one.
You have to credit to Pep Guardiola for helping Manchester City open the season with back to back wins but neither Sunderland or Steaua Bucharest are really going to be the tests by which he is judged. This week is a much bigger test for Manchester City at a ground where they have regularly struggled in the last few years and against a team that will give their defence a thorough examination.
It does have to be said that Stoke City are not as strong at The Brittania Stadium as they used to be with their changing style meaning teams can play their football a little more freely here these days. However they only lost 3 home games against teams in the top 10 last season and only 1 of those came against teams in the top 5.
That is an impressive stat for Stoke City and I do think they are going to give Manchester City their most difficult game of the season. The layers have set Manchester City as odds ON to win here and I can't be having that for a team that has won 1 of their last 8 League visits to this ground.
Stoke City might not be as strong defensively as in the Tony Pulis heyday, but they are also a much more effective team going forward and it is in defence where Manchester City still have questions to answer. As strong as Manchester City looked going forward against Steaua Bucharest, I think they were aided by a naive performance from the Romanian side and Manchester City didn't look as creative in their narrow win over Sunderland.
There is so much quality in the Manchester City squad, but I am going to back Stoke City who I feel can surprise them. Even a one goal defeat for Stoke City will return half the stakes and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap.
Swansea City v Hull City Pick: There have been some changes in the Swansea City squad this summer with influential centre half Ashley Williams moving to Everton and Andre Ayew leaving to join West Ham United, but there still looks to be enough quality to keep the club in the Premier League for a sixth successive season.
The 0-1 win at Burnley last week was a very positive start for Swansea City and they will be looking to back that up against Hull City who became the first side in the Premier League to beat the defending Champions on opening day. That result was full of character and determination, but those are tough attributes to rely upon during the course of a long season and Hull City won't have the fans pushing them on as loudly as they did last weekend.
Results away from home were partly the reason Hull City had to go through the Play Offs in the Championship last season and they were beaten at Middlesbrough, Burnley, Brighton and Derby County in the League (although they did beat Derby County at the iPro Stadium in the Play Offs).
The Tigers also struggled away from home in the Premier League when relegated fifteen months ago and a small squad will be tested by Swansea City.
The form at The Liberty Stadium was good for 9th in the Premier League last season and Swansea City did beat 5 of the bottom 8 clubs at home to keep themselves clear of trouble. They ended last season with 4 straight wins here before Manchester City earned themselves the point that took them into the Champions League Play Offs and the squad looks settled even in the face of Williams and Ayew moving on.
As well as Hull City did last week, I still believe this will be a very difficult season for them barring a number of new bodies coming in to help before the close of the transfer window. The win over Leicester City was solid enough, but the defending Champions had plenty of chances in that game and Swansea City might punish Hull City this weekend if those are allowed to continue to come at the rate they did.
The Swansea City home record and Hull City's poor away record against the top Championship teams are enough for me to back Swansea City to make it two wins from two this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: The likes of Dele Alli and Harry Kane were heavily criticised for poor showings at the Euro 2016 tournament for England and both still might have something to prove to their critics. They are key parts of the Tottenham Hotspur side this season and will be looking to help their team win their first Premier League game of the new campaign following a 1-1 draw at Everton last weekend.
It looks a good match for Tottenham Hotspur to get back to winning ways after a poor end to last season means they have not won any of their last 5 Premier League games. However that might have been a response to the fact the title had slipped from their grasp and the draw at Goodison Park is not a bad result.
Even with that poor end to the season, Tottenham Hotspur might be considered to be in better form than Crystal Palace who have had a terrible 2016 in the Premier League. The FA Cup form seemed to paper over the cracks, but Alan Pardew has to be feeling the pressure with the poor League form Crystal Palace displayed and a loss to West Brom in the books in the 2016/17 season.
Their away form was better than the record at Selhurst Park last season, but Crystal Palace did lose to 5 of the top 6 teams in the Premier League. Pardew is still trying to strengthen the squad by bringing in a goalscorer like Christian Benteke, but at this moment they do look short in the forward areas against the team that had the joint best defence in the League last season.
Last season might have produced a tight win for Tottenham Hotspur, but 7 out of 10 League wins came by at least two goals for the home team last season. The second half performance at Goodison Park saw Tottenham Hotspur begin to create more chances and I think they can be a rare team to beat Crystal Palace by more than a single goal margin at home.
Only 3 of Crystal Palace's 19 away games in the League saw them lose by more than a single goal margin, but 2 of their last 3 ended that way. I will back Tottenham Hotspur to cover the Asian Handicap in this one knowing half the stake will be returned if they do win by just one goal.
Watford v Chelsea Pick: Both Chelsea and Watford made decent starts to the season and this looks a very interesting match at Vicarage Road in only the second game of the 2016/17 season.
I can't see this being anything but a competitive match between the two teams and I don't think there will be a lot to separate them on Saturday. On paper the edge in quality still leans towards Chelsea, but both teams have new managers finding their feet in the Premier League and I really can't see a big gap developing between teams.
Both League games ended in draws last season and Chelsea at odds on look very short in the market to win this game.
I do think they are the more likely winners considering Watford did lose all 5 home games against the top five teams last season. However 4 of those losses came by one goal margins and 3 of those losses ended in a 1-2 scoreline and that looks the most likely result on Saturday as far as I am concerned.
Backing Chelsea to follow up their success against West Ham United looks the call, but I am going to have a small interest in The Blues winning by a single goal margin.
Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: The boo boys were out in force again at The Emirates Stadium last week as Arsenal went down to a 3-4 defeat to Liverpool to once again drop points on the opening day of a new season. Once again the frustrated voices pointed to Arsene Wenger and the stubbornness that comes with refusing to spend money in the transfer market that could change Arsenal from also-rans to title challengers.
All the signs point to this being the last season Wenger will be in charge of Arsenal unless they win the Premier League, but the squad looks like it is missing some depth and injuries showed that last week in the loss to Liverpool.
It will take a long time for Leicester City fans to boo Claudio Ranieri after he delivered a top flight title to the club for the first time in their history. The 2-1 loss to Hull City would have been a disappointment for Leicester City who have kept their title winning squad together, bar N'Golo Kante, but this is a team that recovered from losses very well last season.
After their four outright losses last season, Leicester City won the next game three times and drew the other, but they have lost back to back games this season already. Leicester City also didn't win too many home games against the teams immediately below them in the Premier League table last season (1 win against teams in the top 7), although they are facing an Arsenal team that had won 1 away win against a top 10 team last season.
However that win did come here at the King Power Stadium when Arsenal won 2-5 against Leicester City and both defences looked very vulnerable in the first week of the season. Robert Huth is back for Leicester City which should shore them up somewhat, but Arsenal's best form of defence might be attack and I think this could lead to this being an open game.
Only 2 of the 6 home games Leicester City played against the top 7 teams ended with at least three goals shared out, but both League games against Arsenal hit that number. The likes of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez will expect to create chances against an Arsenal team that conceded four times last week even if Laurent Koscielny is back to offer some leadership, while Arsenal are better going forward than defending and will have key attacking players back including Mesut Ozil and possibly Olivier Giroud.
I am going to back these teams to combine for at least three goals for the fourth time in a row in the late afternoon live offering with the attacks likely to be in better shape than the defences on the day.
Sunderland v Middlesbrough Pick: Over recent seasons, the biggest derby in the North West has involved Newcastle United and Sunderland, but this season it is Middlesbrough who will replace Newcastle United in the Premier League. These two clubs might both dislike Newcastle United the most, but there isn't much love lost between them as they get set for their first League derby game in eight years.
In that time both Sunderland and Middlesbrough have had a Cup win over the other, although Sunderland have failed to win their last 2 against Middlesbrough at The Stadium of Light and were beaten in the League Cup by them a couple of years ago.
This is the kind of match that could prove pivotal in deciding which team survives in the Premier League and which ends in the drop, but both teams should be confident having played well on the opening day. Good performances are not enough and both Sunderland and Middlesbrough might have expected to have earned more than they did in their loss to Manchester City and draw with Stoke City respectively.
Sunderland are now listening to David Moyes' voice in the dressing room but they will be looking to continue a run which saw them lose none of their home games against the bottom seven Premier League clubs last season. Sunderland beat two of the three relegated teams here too, but they have to respect a Middlesbrough team that did win plenty of away games in the Championship.
I can see this being a tight game, but I like the way Sunderland have performed in recent derby games against Newcastle United. Hosting Middlesbrough should give them an edge and I think Sunderland can show their extra Premier League experience to earn the win in this one.
I am keeping stakes to a minimum as Middlesbrough have some real talent in the squad too, but Sunderland seemingly save their best for derby games in recent years and I will back The Black Cats to take the points for a small interest.
West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Eddie Howe was linked with the vacant England managerial role in the summer, but he remains manager of Bournemouth with a real challenge on his hands to keep the club in the Premier League this time around. Second season syndrome has affected many promoted clubs over the last twenty seasons and the manner of their 1-3 home defeat to Manchester United had to be a concern.
On the other hand Howe was right to point out that only a mistake opened the door for Manchester United in what was a tight first half. That doesn't paper over the defensive cracks his team have shown in the last twelve months and they will be challenged by a West Ham United team who only scored fewer goals than three teams in the whole of last season.
It has been a slow start by West Ham United to the new season with a disappointing performance in the eventual 2-1 loss at Chelsea last Monday before a 1-1 draw in Astra in the Europa League. The likes of Dimitri Payet may finally make their return to the starting line up this week though after playing for France in Euro 2016 and the excitement of playing in the new London Stadium has to be inspiring the players.
I am looking forward to seeing how much of an atmosphere the West Ham United fans can create inside their new Stadium as we all knew how difficult they made things for teams travelling to Upton Park down the years. That was a key for them last season as The Hammers were only beaten at Upton Park by Champions Leicester City out of all the sides that finished in the top 12 League positions.
They were tempting at just short of odds against to beat a Bournemouth team that conceded plenty of goals last season. However I have to respect how much better Bournemouth seemed to play at home as well as the slow start West Ham United have made so far this season.
Instead of backing a winner, I think backing three goals might be a better option. Bournemouth showed last season they can score goals as well as concede and 11 of 19 West Ham United home games featured at least three goals shared out. Both League games between these teams also featured at least four goals in each game and I will look for a 2-1 scoreline being the most likely outcome from this one.
Bristol City v Newcastle United Pick: This looks like a really difficult test for Newcastle United as they head to Ashton Gate for their fourth League game of the season, and it is a long journey for the players to undertake across the country. However the players have to be feeling a lot better after putting the first League win in the books this past week with their 4-1 win over Reading and that might spark a change in form for Newcastle United.
As positive as the start to the season has been for Bristol City, it has to be noted that they have beaten two teams that were promoted from League One. They needed 90th minute winners in both and Bristol City trailed Wigan Athletic here for long periods on the opening day before winning that game 2-1.
The Robins also had a tough time when hosting teams in the Championship last season as they finished with the 20th best home record in the League. Bristol City also lost to 3 of the top 5 last season at Ashton Gate and Premier League West Brom won here in the FA Cup, while their unbeaten run to the new season ended with a 1-0 defeat at Norwich City who were relegated along with Newcastle United last season.
My concerns have to be that Newcastle United have not won away from St James' Park for a long time and lost 11 of their last 13 on their travels. They are also going into a hostile environment as teams should give them their best effort every week and Newcastle United had to come back from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 draw at Bristol City when they played here in the Championship seven seasons ago.
However I think the win over Reading will have given Newcastle United a boost and they can back that up here. At the moment the layers are putting out very tempting prices on Newcastle United and I think this is a team that is better than they have shown so far while Bristol City's record looks stronger than it should thanks to two 90th minute winners. At odds against I am looking for Newcastle United to snap their long run without an away win this weekend.
Huddersfield Town v Barnsley Pick: I think both Huddersfield Town and Barnsley will be very pleased with their starts to the Championship season and this looks like a game that could produce a few goals on Saturday afternoon.
Huddersfield Town have had the tougher fixture list on paper through the first three games in the League, but they have scored in all of those games and have managed two goals twice. Barnsley might not have faced two relegated teams from the Premier League like Huddersfield Town have, but they have come up from League One and won 2 games already while scoring at least twice in every game League game played.
Both teams are in the top seven going into the fixture and picking a winner is not as clear cut as Huddersfield Town being odds on to win at home, especially as Barnsley had a very solid away record last season albeit in League One. The goals scored by Barnsley make them dangerous and they were unfortunate to lose 4-2 at Ipswich Town as they could have gone clear when leading 0-1 and dominating at Portman Road.
A similar level of performance will make Barnsley dangerous here and I think they can play their part in this one. The last 3 games at Huddersfield Town between these teams have featured at least three goals shared out while last season Barnsley's away games saw 14 out of 23 end with three goals or more shared out.
The home side had one of the better attacks last season and one of the poorer defences and I think we will see at least three goals in this one. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals to open the season, but they have also conceded at least twice in 2 of their 3 League games so far and backing goals looks a solid proposition.
Queens Park Rangers v Preston North End Pick: Queens Park Rangers and Preston North End have made contrasting starts to the new season, but the home team are coming in off a disappointing 3-2 defeat at Barnsley during the week.
I am expecting Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink to help Queens Park Rangers bounce back and that is shown from the fact that this side have not lost back to back games since early January. Since then they have lost 5 times and my one concern is that Queens Park Rangers have drawn 3 of the games following a loss as the manager perhaps looks to make them harder to beat.
After conceding three times to Barnsley, Hasselbaink might have spent the last few days making sure his team are defensively sound in this one. That might take away some of the attacking potential, but this is a team that had the 5th best home attack last season and Queens Park Rangers have beaten Leeds United 3-0 at Loftus Road in their only League game here.
You also have to think Simon Grayson will turn things around at Preston North End as they did last season following a slow start. It took a little time for them to do that and I think Queens Park Rangers have the edge considering Preston North End lost the majority of their away games against teams from the top half last season.
It will be tight and I don't think there will be a lot between two teams that shared the points in both League games last season. They also finished next to one another in the final League table, but I think the confidence is with the Queens Park Rangers players and home advantage can be key for them. I will back them to once again bounce back from a defeat under Hasselbaink and get the win to keep Preston North End searching for their first points in the League in the new season.
Rotherham United v Brentford Pick: It has been difficult to get a read on Rotherham United to open the season as new manager Alan Stubbs has come in to replace Neil Warnock. Last season Warnock barely kept Rotherham United in the Championship and they are looking to avoid relegation again this season so Stubbs will be desperate to get a first win on the board as soon as possible.
There were some inconsistent performances from Brentford last season, but they have now won 9 of their last 12 games in the Championship. That includes a run of 4 wins in their final 5 away games before the 2-1 defeat at Huddersfield Town to open the new season and yet I am still not sure what to think of Brentford.
A part of me does think they can challenge for a top six berth, but games like this will tell us a lot more about Brentford. Last season Brentford didn't struggle for away wins or away goals, but they did also finish with the joint 5th worst defensive record which is a surprise for a team that finished 9th in the League table.
Both Brentford and Rotherham United were amongst the poorer defences in the Championship last season and goals have been flowing in the Rotherham United matches so far this season. Amazingly 14 of the last 15 Brentford away games in the Championship have seen at least three goals shared out and there have been ten goals scored in the couple of Rotherham United home games this season.
Backing there being at least three goals in this one at odds against is too much to ignore especially when noticing both League games ended 2-1 last season.
Ipswich Town v Norwich City Pick: Derby games are always going to produce a different mindset for the players heading into those matches, but this feels a bigger game for Ipswich Town than Norwich City. The Tractor Boys have not made the kind of start they would have wanted to the new season, but beating a promotion rival at home in a game that means most to the fans can give them plenty of confidence going forward.
Of course it will mean plenty to Norwich City too, but at least Alex Neil can point to a strong start to this campaign as they made two seasons ago. He will be confident having led Norwich City to success over Ipswich Town two seasons ago and plenty of the Norwich City players will know what to expect in the derby so Ipswich Town can't rely on 'pampered' Premier League players to turn up for this 'High Noon Showdown'.
You have to respect the recent record Norwich City have had in the East Anglia derby, although I don't imagine this to be a free-flowing game of football. Norwich City have shown they can negotiate life in the Championship and while Ipswich Town have been in the top half, they have rarely threatened to really get involved in the Play Off shake up.
The feeling is that extra quality can come out for Norwich City against an Ipswich Town team who struggled for goals last season and I will back The Canaries to be flying high after this derby.
MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Swansea City @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 2.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 2.35 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Huddersfield Town-Barnsley Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.15 William Hill (1 Unit)
Rotherham United-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 2.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Usually I say you can't read too much into opening day results as some teams are not quite as fit as others while surprises seem to be common place. It was no different than usual in that regards as Hull City upset defending Champions Leicester City as a big home underdog, and Liverpool won at The Emirates Stadium as a big away underdog.
Diego Costa is still being vilified, defences in the Premier League still look short of the expected quality and the Division remains a competitive one in which any team can beat any other.
Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool all made winning starts to the new season and Manchester City also looked impressive in seeing off what was a clearly overwhelmed Steaua Bucharest side on Tuesday in the Champions League Play Off.
Next week we will see the draws for the Group Stages of the Champions League and Europa League, but let's crack on with the picks for this weekend.
The last two Augusts have put me behind the black ball when it comes to the season totals and while I have eventually recovered both times, I did not want to open with another poor month. Last weekend saw the picks produce a mixed result as the first three lost on Saturday, but the three made for Sunday and Monday all returned as winners.
That winning feeling continued during the midweek set of fixtures which saw the picks go 11-4 and give us a platform for a rare winning August.
I don't want to give anything away now so will be looking to keep the positives going through this weekend which also sees the Spanish and Italian top flights open their campaigns.
Of course we have Friday night football for the first time in England so this post will be the 'Featured Post' through the weekend for all the picks being made over the Leagues from Friday to Sunday.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge game to open the Premier League weekend as Jose Mourinho comes out at Old Trafford as the Manchester United manager for the first time in a competitive game. It should also be the second debut of Paul Pogba who returns from a suspension, while the likes of Eric Bailly, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are also in line for home debuts for their new club.
There should be plenty of positive feelings going into the game for Manchester United fans after an impressive 1-3 win at Bournemouth on the opening day, although this is a much tougher test on paper. No one will be underestimating Southampton who are unbeaten in 3 League visits to Old Trafford since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager of Manchester United and The Saints have won their last two by the same 0-1 scoreline.
Southampton also beat Jose Mourinho's Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season so the manager and Manchester United players will be well aware of the quality in the away dressing room. However it does have to be stated that Ronald Koeman has moved on as Southampton manager and Claude Puel is the new voice that needs to get the best out of a squad that has lost the likes of Victor Wanyama, Sado Mane and Graziano Pelle in the transfer window.
The last couple of years has seen plenty of talent leave St Mary's but Koeman's presence has kept things ticking along. With a new manager it is less clear as to whether Southampton can replace the quality they have lost and they did look a little short of confidence in their 1-1 home draw with Watford last weekend.
Playing at Old Trafford should get the best out of the players still at Southampton and the basis for their success will be a solid defensive platform. Keeping Jose Fonte would be huge for Southampton, while they do have the pace of Shane Long and Nathan Redmond to cause Manchester United problems on the counter attack.
Manchester United did have the 2nd best home record last season in the Premier League but only half of their 12 League wins came by more than a one goal margin. It did also take a big error from Simon Francis to help Manchester United open the scoring last week at The Vitality Stadium and I think Southampton will be better in defence than Bournemouth.
However I think the positives coming from the stands might just inspire Manchester United to finally break down Southampton and I will pick the home team to win by a single goal margin. Southampton have proved difficult for Manchester United to crack in recent seasons, but Zlatan Ibrahimovic might inspire a different result this time although I imagine it will be a tight game again.
Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: Manchester City looked very good during the week as they hammered Steaua Bucharest and virtually put themselves into the Champions League Group Stage. It would take something special for them to fail to make it after winning 0-5 away from home, but that result and performance might make Manchester City a little overrated for this one.
You have to credit to Pep Guardiola for helping Manchester City open the season with back to back wins but neither Sunderland or Steaua Bucharest are really going to be the tests by which he is judged. This week is a much bigger test for Manchester City at a ground where they have regularly struggled in the last few years and against a team that will give their defence a thorough examination.
It does have to be said that Stoke City are not as strong at The Brittania Stadium as they used to be with their changing style meaning teams can play their football a little more freely here these days. However they only lost 3 home games against teams in the top 10 last season and only 1 of those came against teams in the top 5.
That is an impressive stat for Stoke City and I do think they are going to give Manchester City their most difficult game of the season. The layers have set Manchester City as odds ON to win here and I can't be having that for a team that has won 1 of their last 8 League visits to this ground.
Stoke City might not be as strong defensively as in the Tony Pulis heyday, but they are also a much more effective team going forward and it is in defence where Manchester City still have questions to answer. As strong as Manchester City looked going forward against Steaua Bucharest, I think they were aided by a naive performance from the Romanian side and Manchester City didn't look as creative in their narrow win over Sunderland.
There is so much quality in the Manchester City squad, but I am going to back Stoke City who I feel can surprise them. Even a one goal defeat for Stoke City will return half the stakes and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap.
Swansea City v Hull City Pick: There have been some changes in the Swansea City squad this summer with influential centre half Ashley Williams moving to Everton and Andre Ayew leaving to join West Ham United, but there still looks to be enough quality to keep the club in the Premier League for a sixth successive season.
The 0-1 win at Burnley last week was a very positive start for Swansea City and they will be looking to back that up against Hull City who became the first side in the Premier League to beat the defending Champions on opening day. That result was full of character and determination, but those are tough attributes to rely upon during the course of a long season and Hull City won't have the fans pushing them on as loudly as they did last weekend.
Results away from home were partly the reason Hull City had to go through the Play Offs in the Championship last season and they were beaten at Middlesbrough, Burnley, Brighton and Derby County in the League (although they did beat Derby County at the iPro Stadium in the Play Offs).
The Tigers also struggled away from home in the Premier League when relegated fifteen months ago and a small squad will be tested by Swansea City.
The form at The Liberty Stadium was good for 9th in the Premier League last season and Swansea City did beat 5 of the bottom 8 clubs at home to keep themselves clear of trouble. They ended last season with 4 straight wins here before Manchester City earned themselves the point that took them into the Champions League Play Offs and the squad looks settled even in the face of Williams and Ayew moving on.
As well as Hull City did last week, I still believe this will be a very difficult season for them barring a number of new bodies coming in to help before the close of the transfer window. The win over Leicester City was solid enough, but the defending Champions had plenty of chances in that game and Swansea City might punish Hull City this weekend if those are allowed to continue to come at the rate they did.
The Swansea City home record and Hull City's poor away record against the top Championship teams are enough for me to back Swansea City to make it two wins from two this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: The likes of Dele Alli and Harry Kane were heavily criticised for poor showings at the Euro 2016 tournament for England and both still might have something to prove to their critics. They are key parts of the Tottenham Hotspur side this season and will be looking to help their team win their first Premier League game of the new campaign following a 1-1 draw at Everton last weekend.
It looks a good match for Tottenham Hotspur to get back to winning ways after a poor end to last season means they have not won any of their last 5 Premier League games. However that might have been a response to the fact the title had slipped from their grasp and the draw at Goodison Park is not a bad result.
Even with that poor end to the season, Tottenham Hotspur might be considered to be in better form than Crystal Palace who have had a terrible 2016 in the Premier League. The FA Cup form seemed to paper over the cracks, but Alan Pardew has to be feeling the pressure with the poor League form Crystal Palace displayed and a loss to West Brom in the books in the 2016/17 season.
Their away form was better than the record at Selhurst Park last season, but Crystal Palace did lose to 5 of the top 6 teams in the Premier League. Pardew is still trying to strengthen the squad by bringing in a goalscorer like Christian Benteke, but at this moment they do look short in the forward areas against the team that had the joint best defence in the League last season.
Last season might have produced a tight win for Tottenham Hotspur, but 7 out of 10 League wins came by at least two goals for the home team last season. The second half performance at Goodison Park saw Tottenham Hotspur begin to create more chances and I think they can be a rare team to beat Crystal Palace by more than a single goal margin at home.
Only 3 of Crystal Palace's 19 away games in the League saw them lose by more than a single goal margin, but 2 of their last 3 ended that way. I will back Tottenham Hotspur to cover the Asian Handicap in this one knowing half the stake will be returned if they do win by just one goal.
Watford v Chelsea Pick: Both Chelsea and Watford made decent starts to the season and this looks a very interesting match at Vicarage Road in only the second game of the 2016/17 season.
I can't see this being anything but a competitive match between the two teams and I don't think there will be a lot to separate them on Saturday. On paper the edge in quality still leans towards Chelsea, but both teams have new managers finding their feet in the Premier League and I really can't see a big gap developing between teams.
Both League games ended in draws last season and Chelsea at odds on look very short in the market to win this game.
I do think they are the more likely winners considering Watford did lose all 5 home games against the top five teams last season. However 4 of those losses came by one goal margins and 3 of those losses ended in a 1-2 scoreline and that looks the most likely result on Saturday as far as I am concerned.
Backing Chelsea to follow up their success against West Ham United looks the call, but I am going to have a small interest in The Blues winning by a single goal margin.
Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: The boo boys were out in force again at The Emirates Stadium last week as Arsenal went down to a 3-4 defeat to Liverpool to once again drop points on the opening day of a new season. Once again the frustrated voices pointed to Arsene Wenger and the stubbornness that comes with refusing to spend money in the transfer market that could change Arsenal from also-rans to title challengers.
All the signs point to this being the last season Wenger will be in charge of Arsenal unless they win the Premier League, but the squad looks like it is missing some depth and injuries showed that last week in the loss to Liverpool.
It will take a long time for Leicester City fans to boo Claudio Ranieri after he delivered a top flight title to the club for the first time in their history. The 2-1 loss to Hull City would have been a disappointment for Leicester City who have kept their title winning squad together, bar N'Golo Kante, but this is a team that recovered from losses very well last season.
After their four outright losses last season, Leicester City won the next game three times and drew the other, but they have lost back to back games this season already. Leicester City also didn't win too many home games against the teams immediately below them in the Premier League table last season (1 win against teams in the top 7), although they are facing an Arsenal team that had won 1 away win against a top 10 team last season.
However that win did come here at the King Power Stadium when Arsenal won 2-5 against Leicester City and both defences looked very vulnerable in the first week of the season. Robert Huth is back for Leicester City which should shore them up somewhat, but Arsenal's best form of defence might be attack and I think this could lead to this being an open game.
Only 2 of the 6 home games Leicester City played against the top 7 teams ended with at least three goals shared out, but both League games against Arsenal hit that number. The likes of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez will expect to create chances against an Arsenal team that conceded four times last week even if Laurent Koscielny is back to offer some leadership, while Arsenal are better going forward than defending and will have key attacking players back including Mesut Ozil and possibly Olivier Giroud.
I am going to back these teams to combine for at least three goals for the fourth time in a row in the late afternoon live offering with the attacks likely to be in better shape than the defences on the day.
Sunderland v Middlesbrough Pick: Over recent seasons, the biggest derby in the North West has involved Newcastle United and Sunderland, but this season it is Middlesbrough who will replace Newcastle United in the Premier League. These two clubs might both dislike Newcastle United the most, but there isn't much love lost between them as they get set for their first League derby game in eight years.
In that time both Sunderland and Middlesbrough have had a Cup win over the other, although Sunderland have failed to win their last 2 against Middlesbrough at The Stadium of Light and were beaten in the League Cup by them a couple of years ago.
This is the kind of match that could prove pivotal in deciding which team survives in the Premier League and which ends in the drop, but both teams should be confident having played well on the opening day. Good performances are not enough and both Sunderland and Middlesbrough might have expected to have earned more than they did in their loss to Manchester City and draw with Stoke City respectively.
Sunderland are now listening to David Moyes' voice in the dressing room but they will be looking to continue a run which saw them lose none of their home games against the bottom seven Premier League clubs last season. Sunderland beat two of the three relegated teams here too, but they have to respect a Middlesbrough team that did win plenty of away games in the Championship.
I can see this being a tight game, but I like the way Sunderland have performed in recent derby games against Newcastle United. Hosting Middlesbrough should give them an edge and I think Sunderland can show their extra Premier League experience to earn the win in this one.
I am keeping stakes to a minimum as Middlesbrough have some real talent in the squad too, but Sunderland seemingly save their best for derby games in recent years and I will back The Black Cats to take the points for a small interest.
West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Eddie Howe was linked with the vacant England managerial role in the summer, but he remains manager of Bournemouth with a real challenge on his hands to keep the club in the Premier League this time around. Second season syndrome has affected many promoted clubs over the last twenty seasons and the manner of their 1-3 home defeat to Manchester United had to be a concern.
On the other hand Howe was right to point out that only a mistake opened the door for Manchester United in what was a tight first half. That doesn't paper over the defensive cracks his team have shown in the last twelve months and they will be challenged by a West Ham United team who only scored fewer goals than three teams in the whole of last season.
It has been a slow start by West Ham United to the new season with a disappointing performance in the eventual 2-1 loss at Chelsea last Monday before a 1-1 draw in Astra in the Europa League. The likes of Dimitri Payet may finally make their return to the starting line up this week though after playing for France in Euro 2016 and the excitement of playing in the new London Stadium has to be inspiring the players.
I am looking forward to seeing how much of an atmosphere the West Ham United fans can create inside their new Stadium as we all knew how difficult they made things for teams travelling to Upton Park down the years. That was a key for them last season as The Hammers were only beaten at Upton Park by Champions Leicester City out of all the sides that finished in the top 12 League positions.
They were tempting at just short of odds against to beat a Bournemouth team that conceded plenty of goals last season. However I have to respect how much better Bournemouth seemed to play at home as well as the slow start West Ham United have made so far this season.
Instead of backing a winner, I think backing three goals might be a better option. Bournemouth showed last season they can score goals as well as concede and 11 of 19 West Ham United home games featured at least three goals shared out. Both League games between these teams also featured at least four goals in each game and I will look for a 2-1 scoreline being the most likely outcome from this one.
Bristol City v Newcastle United Pick: This looks like a really difficult test for Newcastle United as they head to Ashton Gate for their fourth League game of the season, and it is a long journey for the players to undertake across the country. However the players have to be feeling a lot better after putting the first League win in the books this past week with their 4-1 win over Reading and that might spark a change in form for Newcastle United.
As positive as the start to the season has been for Bristol City, it has to be noted that they have beaten two teams that were promoted from League One. They needed 90th minute winners in both and Bristol City trailed Wigan Athletic here for long periods on the opening day before winning that game 2-1.
The Robins also had a tough time when hosting teams in the Championship last season as they finished with the 20th best home record in the League. Bristol City also lost to 3 of the top 5 last season at Ashton Gate and Premier League West Brom won here in the FA Cup, while their unbeaten run to the new season ended with a 1-0 defeat at Norwich City who were relegated along with Newcastle United last season.
My concerns have to be that Newcastle United have not won away from St James' Park for a long time and lost 11 of their last 13 on their travels. They are also going into a hostile environment as teams should give them their best effort every week and Newcastle United had to come back from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 draw at Bristol City when they played here in the Championship seven seasons ago.
However I think the win over Reading will have given Newcastle United a boost and they can back that up here. At the moment the layers are putting out very tempting prices on Newcastle United and I think this is a team that is better than they have shown so far while Bristol City's record looks stronger than it should thanks to two 90th minute winners. At odds against I am looking for Newcastle United to snap their long run without an away win this weekend.
Huddersfield Town v Barnsley Pick: I think both Huddersfield Town and Barnsley will be very pleased with their starts to the Championship season and this looks like a game that could produce a few goals on Saturday afternoon.
Huddersfield Town have had the tougher fixture list on paper through the first three games in the League, but they have scored in all of those games and have managed two goals twice. Barnsley might not have faced two relegated teams from the Premier League like Huddersfield Town have, but they have come up from League One and won 2 games already while scoring at least twice in every game League game played.
Both teams are in the top seven going into the fixture and picking a winner is not as clear cut as Huddersfield Town being odds on to win at home, especially as Barnsley had a very solid away record last season albeit in League One. The goals scored by Barnsley make them dangerous and they were unfortunate to lose 4-2 at Ipswich Town as they could have gone clear when leading 0-1 and dominating at Portman Road.
A similar level of performance will make Barnsley dangerous here and I think they can play their part in this one. The last 3 games at Huddersfield Town between these teams have featured at least three goals shared out while last season Barnsley's away games saw 14 out of 23 end with three goals or more shared out.
The home side had one of the better attacks last season and one of the poorer defences and I think we will see at least three goals in this one. Barnsley have been scoring plenty of goals to open the season, but they have also conceded at least twice in 2 of their 3 League games so far and backing goals looks a solid proposition.
Queens Park Rangers v Preston North End Pick: Queens Park Rangers and Preston North End have made contrasting starts to the new season, but the home team are coming in off a disappointing 3-2 defeat at Barnsley during the week.
I am expecting Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink to help Queens Park Rangers bounce back and that is shown from the fact that this side have not lost back to back games since early January. Since then they have lost 5 times and my one concern is that Queens Park Rangers have drawn 3 of the games following a loss as the manager perhaps looks to make them harder to beat.
After conceding three times to Barnsley, Hasselbaink might have spent the last few days making sure his team are defensively sound in this one. That might take away some of the attacking potential, but this is a team that had the 5th best home attack last season and Queens Park Rangers have beaten Leeds United 3-0 at Loftus Road in their only League game here.
You also have to think Simon Grayson will turn things around at Preston North End as they did last season following a slow start. It took a little time for them to do that and I think Queens Park Rangers have the edge considering Preston North End lost the majority of their away games against teams from the top half last season.
It will be tight and I don't think there will be a lot between two teams that shared the points in both League games last season. They also finished next to one another in the final League table, but I think the confidence is with the Queens Park Rangers players and home advantage can be key for them. I will back them to once again bounce back from a defeat under Hasselbaink and get the win to keep Preston North End searching for their first points in the League in the new season.
Rotherham United v Brentford Pick: It has been difficult to get a read on Rotherham United to open the season as new manager Alan Stubbs has come in to replace Neil Warnock. Last season Warnock barely kept Rotherham United in the Championship and they are looking to avoid relegation again this season so Stubbs will be desperate to get a first win on the board as soon as possible.
There were some inconsistent performances from Brentford last season, but they have now won 9 of their last 12 games in the Championship. That includes a run of 4 wins in their final 5 away games before the 2-1 defeat at Huddersfield Town to open the new season and yet I am still not sure what to think of Brentford.
A part of me does think they can challenge for a top six berth, but games like this will tell us a lot more about Brentford. Last season Brentford didn't struggle for away wins or away goals, but they did also finish with the joint 5th worst defensive record which is a surprise for a team that finished 9th in the League table.
Both Brentford and Rotherham United were amongst the poorer defences in the Championship last season and goals have been flowing in the Rotherham United matches so far this season. Amazingly 14 of the last 15 Brentford away games in the Championship have seen at least three goals shared out and there have been ten goals scored in the couple of Rotherham United home games this season.
Backing there being at least three goals in this one at odds against is too much to ignore especially when noticing both League games ended 2-1 last season.
Ipswich Town v Norwich City Pick: Derby games are always going to produce a different mindset for the players heading into those matches, but this feels a bigger game for Ipswich Town than Norwich City. The Tractor Boys have not made the kind of start they would have wanted to the new season, but beating a promotion rival at home in a game that means most to the fans can give them plenty of confidence going forward.
Of course it will mean plenty to Norwich City too, but at least Alex Neil can point to a strong start to this campaign as they made two seasons ago. He will be confident having led Norwich City to success over Ipswich Town two seasons ago and plenty of the Norwich City players will know what to expect in the derby so Ipswich Town can't rely on 'pampered' Premier League players to turn up for this 'High Noon Showdown'.
You have to respect the recent record Norwich City have had in the East Anglia derby, although I don't imagine this to be a free-flowing game of football. Norwich City have shown they can negotiate life in the Championship and while Ipswich Town have been in the top half, they have rarely threatened to really get involved in the Play Off shake up.
The feeling is that extra quality can come out for Norwich City against an Ipswich Town team who struggled for goals last season and I will back The Canaries to be flying high after this derby.
MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Swansea City @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 2.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 2.35 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Huddersfield Town-Barnsley Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.15 William Hill (1 Unit)
Rotherham United-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 2.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
August Update: 14-7, + 11.88 Units (41 Units Staked, + 28.98% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 19 August 2014
Midweek Football Picks 2014 (August 19-21)
That was a troubled opening weekend of the new football season for the picks and one that escalated quickly with the poor results. If it wasn't for an injury-time goal from Sergio Aguero, it really would have been a torrid start for the picks.
Some of the blame has to be taken by me, but there were some real surprising results, none more so than the terrible display put forth by Manchester United after all the promise of pre-season. There were a number of injuries to contend with, but that would be a big excuse for Louis Van Gaal and not one he is likely to employ as United started with players that had been performing in pre-season games.
Stoke City's home loss to Aston Villa was another disappointing result, the second season in a row that Villa have started with an upset on their travels in the Premier League. And then both Arsenal and Liverpool scored late winners, but edged over the line in games against Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively.
A portion of the poor performances could be played on the tiredness that some players may have felt from the World Cup and I do think there was a real argument to put the League campaign back one more weekend as they have done in Spain and Italy. I think that was partially the reason that Arsenal and Liverpool laboured as much as they did, although the first day/month of the season can be a little stop-start for the players as they regain their form and fitness.
In a weekend where Manchester United disappointed so greatly, I was casting some envious glances at Chelsea where Cesc Fabregas returned to the Premier League as if he had never been away. Fabregas is suited so well to the Premier League and was in fantastic form against Burnley as he pulled the strings from the middle of the park, an area where United need improvement.
Why they didn't pursue the Spanish international as they did last summer is beyond me? If I had to put my finger on a reason though, I would hazard a guess that Fabregas told United he isn't interested in coming to the club and thus the statements made to the media are more of a face-saving exercise than a genuine 'we didn't want him'.
The next two weeks are going to be critical for Manchester United as they look to bring in reinforcements that were supposed to be wrapped up weeks before the start of the season. Unfortunately, this window is beginning to look more and more like last summer which should mean fingers are pointed at Ed Woodward and the Glaziers even in light of their grand declarations that we can spend whatever we like.
Anyone with a semblance of knowledge of how the Glaziers have run United over the last ten years will be more than a little dubious about those claims and they have two weeks to prove us all wrong and bring in the faces that will ensure a bid for a top four place. Failure to do that could be catastrophic for a team and a quick look down the M62 will show United fans how difficult it is to return to the elite in the Premier League in the face of financial restraints and a poor squad that needs an injection of new blood to get them moving in the right direction again.
This week is another Champions League/Europa League qualifying week and it is the final one before the Group Stage begins in both of those competitions. There are some big teams in action and some big Play Off matches that will be played over the next eight days as the likes of Arsenal, Napoli, Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur all play this week.
Hopefully this August month will pick up and not follow the trend of twelve months ago when I really struggled early in the season with my picks before turning the season around for a profitable one.
Besiktas v Arsenal Pick: As much as I believe that Arsenal are a big favourite to beat Besiktas over two legs to move back into the Champions League Group Stage, I can't help but feel they are very short to win the first leg in Turkey.
I do think Arsenal are a much better team than Besiktas, even with the latter signing Demba Ba this summer, and I think the pressure is on the Turkish side to get something out of this game. Previous matches in England have ended badly for Besiktas more often than not so anything other than having something to defend next week could be curtains for them already.
Arsenal also have the benefit of the experience of winning in the Play Off Rounds and also beat Fenerbache of Turkey last season in the first leg- that came after a disappointing performance at home in the Premier League so there isn't a lot for the fans to worry about as they head to Turkey.
The Gunners have won all 12 games played at this stage of the Champions League and I do think they are capable of winning this one too. However, they may have to ride out an early Besiktas storm and Arsenal might have to wait until after the break before they take control.
Their last 3 away wins in the Champions League have all come after Arsenal have gone into the break level, while Arsenal also haven't been ahead in 3 of their last 4 away Play Off games in the Champions League, but have won all of those. That means the value may be in backing Arsenal to win a game after it goes in level at the break.
Napoli v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Out of all the ties that are to be played in the Champions League this week, Napoli versus Athletic Bilbao looks to be the most exciting one, although I do think the experience of the Italians may win the day.
Napoli have performed very well in the Champions League in their appearances over the last three seasons and they were very unlucky not to split Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund in the top two places of their Group last season. That follows their campaign in 2011/12 where they did help knock out Manchester City and it is the home games that have provided the winning platform.
The side have won 6 of their 7 home games in the Champions League, including the last 5 in a row and that means they should be plenty confident of beating Athletic Bilbao. In Rafa Benitez, Napoli also have a manager that has had a lot of success in European games, particularly knock out ties and I believe the former Liverpool manager will have the team tactically and mentally ready for this one.
One factor going against Napoli is that they have had a lot more players coming back from the World Cup than Athletic Bilbao and we have seen teams struggle with that aspect in the Premier League. However, Athletic Bilbao's Ernesto Valverde admitted that shows that Napoli have the higher quality and his team need to use their work ethic to win this game.
It'll be tough for Athletic Bilbao who haven't had the best recent away record in European competition to get a result here and I do believe Napoli can have a lead to take to Spain next week. I expect to see some very good football over the next 180 minutes played by these teams, but this is a game that I think Napoli can win and give themselves a platform to move back into the Group Stage.
Lille v Porto Pick: This looks like a tight European Champions League Play Off and the layers clearly are feeling the same about this first leg with both teams at big prices to earn the advantage ahead of the second leg in Portugal.
I am much the same in trying to separate the teams and their chances to win this game and I think the draw is a major player in this first leg where both teams would believe that gives them a real chance to progress.
Lille have been tough to beat at home, but they draw plenty of games as they can sometimes struggle against stubborn teams. Their home record in the Champions League at the highest level is not the best in recent season, but on the other hand Porto have struggled to win games on their travels too.
With just 1 win from their last 9 away games in all competitions and just 1 win from their last 9 away games in Europe, Porto might be quite content to take this tie back home to complete the job. Porto did struggle at home last season in the Group Stage, but prior to that had won 6 of 8 home games in the Champions League and were unbeaten in those games, while the team also won their last 2 home games in the Europa League last season.
Everything seems to be pointing to a tight battle on Wednesday too and I think the draw is the most pleasing result for both managers with all to play for next week in Portugal.
Maribor v Celtic Pick: After the controversy of the last round, Celtic will be looking to take full advantage of their reprieve in the Champions League. However, the defeat to Legia Warsaw at least highlighted to the fans that Celtic are not a guarantee to beat the Slovenian Champions Maribor who will also be familiar of breaking Glaswegian hearts.
Maribor knocked Rangers out of the Europa League three years ago in a Play Off, while they have also beaten Hibernian from Scotland the year before that. This is a side that has generally found the Champions League a happy hunting ground until they have reached this stage, but Maribor won't look at Celtic as a team that has earned their place at this stage through their performances on the field.
That isn't to say that they will take Celtic lightly, but Maribor do look a big price to win the first leg- it was only twelve months ago that Shakhter Karagandy surprised Celtic with a 2-0 home win in Kazakhstan and Maribor have been very strong at home in recent Champions League home ties.
The concern is that Maribor have lost their last 2 home games in the Champions League Play Offs, but I don't believe Celtic are better than Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen, especially with the players that have departed this summer.
I actually think Celtic would accept a draw and try to complete the win at Celtic Park next week, but that may give Maribor enough of an incentive to push on and earn a first leg advantage. The price just looks out of sync from what we have seen from Celtic so far this season and Maribor have won their last 2 home games when Scottish teams have visited them.
Add in the strong home form in the European competitions, over the last three seasons and Maribor may just become the latest European team that surprises the Scottish Champions.
MY PICKS: Draw HT-Arsenal FT @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Napoli @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lille-Porto Draw @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Maribor @ 3.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
August Update: 1-6, - 8.8 Units (13 Units Staked, - 67.69% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Some of the blame has to be taken by me, but there were some real surprising results, none more so than the terrible display put forth by Manchester United after all the promise of pre-season. There were a number of injuries to contend with, but that would be a big excuse for Louis Van Gaal and not one he is likely to employ as United started with players that had been performing in pre-season games.
Stoke City's home loss to Aston Villa was another disappointing result, the second season in a row that Villa have started with an upset on their travels in the Premier League. And then both Arsenal and Liverpool scored late winners, but edged over the line in games against Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively.
A portion of the poor performances could be played on the tiredness that some players may have felt from the World Cup and I do think there was a real argument to put the League campaign back one more weekend as they have done in Spain and Italy. I think that was partially the reason that Arsenal and Liverpool laboured as much as they did, although the first day/month of the season can be a little stop-start for the players as they regain their form and fitness.
In a weekend where Manchester United disappointed so greatly, I was casting some envious glances at Chelsea where Cesc Fabregas returned to the Premier League as if he had never been away. Fabregas is suited so well to the Premier League and was in fantastic form against Burnley as he pulled the strings from the middle of the park, an area where United need improvement.
Why they didn't pursue the Spanish international as they did last summer is beyond me? If I had to put my finger on a reason though, I would hazard a guess that Fabregas told United he isn't interested in coming to the club and thus the statements made to the media are more of a face-saving exercise than a genuine 'we didn't want him'.
The next two weeks are going to be critical for Manchester United as they look to bring in reinforcements that were supposed to be wrapped up weeks before the start of the season. Unfortunately, this window is beginning to look more and more like last summer which should mean fingers are pointed at Ed Woodward and the Glaziers even in light of their grand declarations that we can spend whatever we like.
Anyone with a semblance of knowledge of how the Glaziers have run United over the last ten years will be more than a little dubious about those claims and they have two weeks to prove us all wrong and bring in the faces that will ensure a bid for a top four place. Failure to do that could be catastrophic for a team and a quick look down the M62 will show United fans how difficult it is to return to the elite in the Premier League in the face of financial restraints and a poor squad that needs an injection of new blood to get them moving in the right direction again.
This week is another Champions League/Europa League qualifying week and it is the final one before the Group Stage begins in both of those competitions. There are some big teams in action and some big Play Off matches that will be played over the next eight days as the likes of Arsenal, Napoli, Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur all play this week.
Hopefully this August month will pick up and not follow the trend of twelve months ago when I really struggled early in the season with my picks before turning the season around for a profitable one.
Besiktas v Arsenal Pick: As much as I believe that Arsenal are a big favourite to beat Besiktas over two legs to move back into the Champions League Group Stage, I can't help but feel they are very short to win the first leg in Turkey.
I do think Arsenal are a much better team than Besiktas, even with the latter signing Demba Ba this summer, and I think the pressure is on the Turkish side to get something out of this game. Previous matches in England have ended badly for Besiktas more often than not so anything other than having something to defend next week could be curtains for them already.
Arsenal also have the benefit of the experience of winning in the Play Off Rounds and also beat Fenerbache of Turkey last season in the first leg- that came after a disappointing performance at home in the Premier League so there isn't a lot for the fans to worry about as they head to Turkey.
The Gunners have won all 12 games played at this stage of the Champions League and I do think they are capable of winning this one too. However, they may have to ride out an early Besiktas storm and Arsenal might have to wait until after the break before they take control.
Their last 3 away wins in the Champions League have all come after Arsenal have gone into the break level, while Arsenal also haven't been ahead in 3 of their last 4 away Play Off games in the Champions League, but have won all of those. That means the value may be in backing Arsenal to win a game after it goes in level at the break.
Napoli v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Out of all the ties that are to be played in the Champions League this week, Napoli versus Athletic Bilbao looks to be the most exciting one, although I do think the experience of the Italians may win the day.
Napoli have performed very well in the Champions League in their appearances over the last three seasons and they were very unlucky not to split Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund in the top two places of their Group last season. That follows their campaign in 2011/12 where they did help knock out Manchester City and it is the home games that have provided the winning platform.
The side have won 6 of their 7 home games in the Champions League, including the last 5 in a row and that means they should be plenty confident of beating Athletic Bilbao. In Rafa Benitez, Napoli also have a manager that has had a lot of success in European games, particularly knock out ties and I believe the former Liverpool manager will have the team tactically and mentally ready for this one.
One factor going against Napoli is that they have had a lot more players coming back from the World Cup than Athletic Bilbao and we have seen teams struggle with that aspect in the Premier League. However, Athletic Bilbao's Ernesto Valverde admitted that shows that Napoli have the higher quality and his team need to use their work ethic to win this game.
It'll be tough for Athletic Bilbao who haven't had the best recent away record in European competition to get a result here and I do believe Napoli can have a lead to take to Spain next week. I expect to see some very good football over the next 180 minutes played by these teams, but this is a game that I think Napoli can win and give themselves a platform to move back into the Group Stage.
Lille v Porto Pick: This looks like a tight European Champions League Play Off and the layers clearly are feeling the same about this first leg with both teams at big prices to earn the advantage ahead of the second leg in Portugal.
I am much the same in trying to separate the teams and their chances to win this game and I think the draw is a major player in this first leg where both teams would believe that gives them a real chance to progress.
Lille have been tough to beat at home, but they draw plenty of games as they can sometimes struggle against stubborn teams. Their home record in the Champions League at the highest level is not the best in recent season, but on the other hand Porto have struggled to win games on their travels too.
With just 1 win from their last 9 away games in all competitions and just 1 win from their last 9 away games in Europe, Porto might be quite content to take this tie back home to complete the job. Porto did struggle at home last season in the Group Stage, but prior to that had won 6 of 8 home games in the Champions League and were unbeaten in those games, while the team also won their last 2 home games in the Europa League last season.
Everything seems to be pointing to a tight battle on Wednesday too and I think the draw is the most pleasing result for both managers with all to play for next week in Portugal.
Maribor v Celtic Pick: After the controversy of the last round, Celtic will be looking to take full advantage of their reprieve in the Champions League. However, the defeat to Legia Warsaw at least highlighted to the fans that Celtic are not a guarantee to beat the Slovenian Champions Maribor who will also be familiar of breaking Glaswegian hearts.
Maribor knocked Rangers out of the Europa League three years ago in a Play Off, while they have also beaten Hibernian from Scotland the year before that. This is a side that has generally found the Champions League a happy hunting ground until they have reached this stage, but Maribor won't look at Celtic as a team that has earned their place at this stage through their performances on the field.
That isn't to say that they will take Celtic lightly, but Maribor do look a big price to win the first leg- it was only twelve months ago that Shakhter Karagandy surprised Celtic with a 2-0 home win in Kazakhstan and Maribor have been very strong at home in recent Champions League home ties.
The concern is that Maribor have lost their last 2 home games in the Champions League Play Offs, but I don't believe Celtic are better than Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen, especially with the players that have departed this summer.
I actually think Celtic would accept a draw and try to complete the win at Celtic Park next week, but that may give Maribor enough of an incentive to push on and earn a first leg advantage. The price just looks out of sync from what we have seen from Celtic so far this season and Maribor have won their last 2 home games when Scottish teams have visited them.
Add in the strong home form in the European competitions, over the last three seasons and Maribor may just become the latest European team that surprises the Scottish Champions.
MY PICKS: Draw HT-Arsenal FT @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Napoli @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lille-Porto Draw @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Maribor @ 3.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
August Update: 1-6, - 8.8 Units (13 Units Staked, - 67.69% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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