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Boxing Picks 2026- Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton (Saturday 26th September)

After the back and forth over a number of weeks and months, an announcement was made that Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua would finally be mee...

Showing posts with label October 25th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label October 25th. Show all posts

Saturday, 25 October 2025

Boxing Picks 2025- Joseph Parker vs Fabio Wardley (Saturday 25th October)

It has felt like a quiet few weeks for Boxing fans and it was interesting to see others pointing that out, including seeing an article written about the lack of fights over the last month.

Losing that Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman card is a blow, but that would have taken place this weekend, and it has been a disappointing run since the Terence Crawford vs Canelo Alvarez.

A big Heavyweight Fight leads the way this weekend, although being placed on a Pay-Per-View platform is almost hilarious considering we have only been hearing how PPV is dying... That from the channel who are placing the Parker-Wardley card on Pay-Per-View of course.

It is laughable- the card is nowhere near the level that would be expected, and there are at least two PPV offerings in November and likely more in December. Some cards- the November 22nd card for example- are worthy of that extra price tag, but there are more and more that are not reaching the level that would be expected and you can understand the frustration of the fans and even some in the media.

As often as you hear new stakeholders speak about the changes they want to see in Boxing, the more things seemingly stay the same and the fans are asked to keep digging into the pockets.

And has been mentioned in the last couple of threads, you can sign up with a number of sites through the links attached for Bet365, Bovada and Bodog.



Joseph Parker vs Fabio Wardley

Oleksandr Usyk can do what he likes as the Undisputed Champion, but two highly Ranked Heavyweights refuse to wait around and wonder if they will be given the opportunity to fight for the Undisputed Title.

Instead the credit has to be given to both Joseph Parker and Fabio Wardley to face one another in London on Saturday night and try and eliminate options around Usyk.

Some have felt Joseph Parker has already put together a strong enough resume since his defeat to Joe Joyce to 'deserve' a shot at Undisputed, but Oleksandr Usyk has mowed through his main rivals and so has been given the leeway to make his own choices.

Personally the feeling has been that Parker has been matched up really well- it is a shame the fight with Daniel Dubois was cancelled earlier this year as it would have been a real 'prove it' moment for the New Zealander. He has been in good form, but Joseph Parker cannot really say his claim is much clearer than say an Agit Kabayel, who has perhaps had the stronger wins.

Perhaps that is being harsh on Joseph Parker, but this is another fight where he should be the clear favourite.

Fabio Wardley deserves so much respect for his professional career considering the lack of amateur experience and he has continued to climb the levels, but this is a fighter who was being outclassed by Justis Huni in his last bout. He virtually lost every Round before finding a special punch to put the lights out pretty emphatically, but doing the same against Joseph Parker feels like it might be asking too much.

Power makes Wardley dangerous.

However, Joseph Parker has shown he can recover from taking big shots and has got off the canvas multiple times- his experience and fast hands should give him a considerable edge against this overachieving opponent.

The expectation is that Joseph Parker will not want to take too many risks early, but he can put the Rounds in the bank and just wear down Fabio Wardley.

Some thought the unbeaten British fighter might have been close to being withdrawn in that last bout, and there is every chance that Parker can turn the screw as this bout develops. This could see him wear down Fabio Wardley and Joseph Parker may be looking to put the exclamation point on any victory and a late Stoppage in favour of the former World Champion looks likely.


The undercard is pretty miserable on Saturday night, which is probably welcome news for English Premier League fans.

The chief support was expected to be a Light Heavyweight domestic clash featuring unbeaten Ezra Taylor facing once beaten Lewis Edmondson.

An injury has forced the latter from the event, but Taylor remains on the card and will be facing Steed Woodhall, who had been preparing for a fight on a smaller show.

The last time we saw Woodhall in this kind of spot, he was blitzed by Callum Simpson in two Rounds, although it has been around fifteen months since Steed Woodhall took Lerrone Richards' unbeaten record. He has some other solid domestic wins, which deserve credit, and it would be foolish for Ezra Taylor to look past a short notice opponent.

However, Taylor has shown he has plenty of early pop and this could be a chance to make a statement against an opponent who has been up and down the Divisions in recent times. His defeat earlier this year to Callum Simpson came at Super Middleweight and Steed Woodhall is someone who may look to fight fire with fire, which is where he could come unstuck before the second half of this scheduled Ten Rounder begins.

MY PICKS: Joseph Parker to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Ezra Taylor to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 22-62, - 33.34 Units (105 Units Staked, - 31.75% Yield)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2025 (Saturday 25th October)

The final games of October are still full of intensity, but there will be a shift in mentality when Week 10 rolls around in the College Football.

It will officially begin the final month of the regular season and teams will really begin to take notice of the College Football Rankings as they try and push their way forward into the Playoff spots. Those in the bigger Conferences will know that they control their own destiny, but there has been a lot of upheaval through the first eight weeks and so opportunities could quickly be found as the Conference schedules are concluded and rivals throw a spanner into the works for the teams they are facing.


Last week was frustrating in the sense that a couple of backdoor covers hurt the selections made.

It could easily have been another 4-1 week, but the decision from Jonathan Smith to kick a Field Goal with less than 30 seconds left and with his team down by 28 points was bizarre to say the least. In a week where NBA athletes have been charged for insider information, Smith's actions will have raised eyebrows previously and especially as it meant his team covered the 26 point line set.

The Arkansas Razorbacks were trying to fight their way back into their own game when scoring a backdoor cover- the frustration there is that they converted a couple of Fourth Downs and also had a 2nd and 33, but managed to avoid needing a Fourth Down in that moment. One play here or there, and both would have returned winners so it is a frustration both landed in the losing side of the occasion.

We move onto Week 9 and the selections once again all come from Saturday action.

And anyone looking to sign up at Bet365, Bovada or Bodog can use the links attached,


Alabama Crimson Tide @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: The opening defeat to the Florida State Seminoles has not aged very well, but playing in the SEC means there were always going to be opportunities for the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) to prove themselves worthy of playing in the College Football Playoff.

Credit has to be given the team for a 4-0 record within the Conference and wins over the Georgia Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers gives the Crimson Tide the inside track to play in the SEC Championship Game and earn one of the twelve Playoff spots that will be handed out at the end of the regular season.

They will be going into a Bye Week following this game and the Crimson Tide still have some challenging games on the schedule in a loaded Conference. Next month they will face the LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers, but the scary prospect for all of Alabama's rivals is that Head Coach Kevin DeBoer believes there is more to come from his team.

Any road game in the SEC is going to be a test and the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-4) will be motivated to snap their two game losing run. Head Coach Shane Beamer continues to downplay links with the Virginia Tech Hokies where his father Frank had so much success, but the distraction is perhaps partly to blame for the disappointing efforts in back to back losses to the LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners.

The latter of those defeats was at home in Week 8 and it is going to be tough for an inconsistent Offensive unit to get things turned around.

While it has been possible to run the ball against the Alabama Defensive Line, the Gamecocks have not had any consistent success in pounding the rock as the competition has ramped up. That has made things much tougher for LaNorris Sellers at Quarter Back, who was expected to really grow in the position this year, and it is always very difficult to make plays from third and long spots on any consistent basis.

Playing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to stand up to the pass rush has only increased the difficulty for LaNorris Sellers and he is expected to be under pressure in this one. There will be some successful moments, but sustaining drives is not going to be easy for South Carolina and that is going to make it tough to keep up on the scoreboard.

The step down in level of competition should help the Alabama Crimson Tide this week as they continue to find a way to get their Offensive unit up to the standards expected in Tuscaloosa.

One player who has been improving the more time he spends on the field is Quarter Back Ty Simpson and his numbers have been key for the Crimson Tide- 18 Touchdown passes with a single Interception would capture the attention for any team, but doing so while playing the majority of games in the SEC is very impressive and Simpson is likely going to be a key figure in this game.

The Crimson Tide have not really been able to run the ball very well in recent games in the SEC, and they are not expected to have a lot of success against this Gamecocks Defensive Line. That has not stopped the Crimson Tide having success on this side of the ball thanks to Ty Simpson and his improving chemistry with some big time Receivers and this is a chance for Alabama to leave everything on the field before heading off for a Bye Week.

With a spread set where it is for this latest SEC game, the Crimson Tide will likely need the Defensive unit to set up a couple of short fields.

They have shown they can do that and Alabama's Quarter Back can do enough to push the Crimson Tide clear, even in a relatively low-scoring game.

Alabama are 9-0 against the spread before playing the LSU Tigers so there is no reason to believe they will be looking past South Carolina to a game taking place in two weeks time. And with the Gamecocks struggling Offensively, the SEC favourites can win this one by a couple of Touchdowns on the road to enhance their place at the top of this powerful Conference.


Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers Pick: There are only two teams in the SEC who are unbeaten in Conference play and the Texas A&M Aggies (7-0) are the only one that have yet to suffer a defeat in any game this season. The road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks improved the Aggies to 4-0 in the Conference, but they continue to move through a very difficult remainder of the schedule as the bid for a Conference Championship and a place in the College Football Playoff remains the final ambition.

This is a very tough road game, even if the LSU Tigers (5-2) have dropped to 2-2 in the SEC and look on course for a fourth year in a row where they have underachieved.

Pressure has to be building on Head Coach Brian Kelly and the next couple of games could really determine what happens at the end of the season. While the chances of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff already look like they are fading, the fans are going to make their feelings known about Kelly after games against the Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide and going 0-2 might mean the end of this Head Coaching tenure.

This is a night game hosted by the LSU Tigers and it is expected to be wet so there are some challenges for the Aggies to overcome, but they look like the stronger team on both sides of the ball and that should play out.

Texas A&M have shown they can win in tough environments already this season and they will have plenty of faith in the Offensive unit in this Week 9 game.

Over the course of the season, the LSU Defensive unit have produced some solid numbers, but the move into the SEC schedule is where teams are really going to be judged. And with that in mind, it is clear that the Texas A&M Aggies should be able to have some success running the ball against this Tigers Defensive Line, which is where any hope of consistency is usually built.

This is a huge chance for the Aggies to pick up from where they left off in the win over the Arkansas Razorbacks and it should mean Marcel Reed is going to be operating in third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back has been given ample protection in recent games, which makes things that much more comfortable, and operating in front of the down and distance should mean Marcel Reed is able to help this Aggies Offensive unit make a point about their capabilities to the rest of the SEC and to the Playoff Committee.

After seeing how the Razorbacks were able to attack the Aggies last week, the more important question in a game like this one is whether the LSU Tigers can manufacture enough Offensive output to keep themselves competitive or not?

Fans of the team would be unlikely to be offended if you said the Tigers have underperformed on this side of the ball and they have been incredibly inconsistent.

This game does give the Tigers Offensive Line a chance to at least change some of the narrative considering the huge chunks of yards that have been given up by the Aggies Defensive Line and that feels really important in the bid for the home upset. Keeping the team in third and manageable would help contain what has been a very effective Aggies pass rush, while also putting Garrett Nussmeier in a position where the burden does not feel so heavy on his shoulders at Quarter Back.

He will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if the team is able to establish the run and there are one or two holes in this Texas A&M Secondary that can be attacked with some success. Garrett Nussmeier played a clean enough game in the loss to Vanderbilt last time out and that gave his team a chance, but the Tigers have come up short and the feeling is that something similar may happen here.

Consecutive road games is a tough spot for any team, but one in the SEC will know those challenges even more.

However, Texas A&M look a lot more confident than the LSU Tigers on both sides of the ball and they may just keep the home team at arm's length, as they did to Arkansas, while coming away with a narrow cover of this spread.


Wisconsin Badgers @ Oregon Ducks Pick: They won the Big Ten Championship last season, but the Oregon Ducks (6-1) have work to do if they are going to be able to defend that crown in December.

They are expected to win out this season, which is still an important goal for a team that will be looking to retrn to the College Football Playoff regardless. However, the defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers means they are trailing both them and the defending National Champions Ohio State Buckeyes in the Conference who both have 4-0 Big Ten records.

After losing that game to the Hoosiers, Oregon made the Rutgers Scarlet Knights pay the price and the Ducks are expected to crush the Wisconsin Badgers (2-5) in Week 9. Back to back defeats are one thing, but Wisconsin have not scored a single point against Iowa and Ohio State and the Badgers have lost five in a row overall, while also propping up the rest of the Conference at 0-4 in Big Ten play.

Third year Head Coach Luke Fickell understands his position and it is hard to imagine him keeping his job if the Badgers are to suffer another losing season.

Injury to Quarter Back Billy Edwards Jr is not helping, but this Badgers team looks short of the qualities needed to compete in a Conference which is likely to have the most, or joint most, teams playing in the twelve team College Football Playoff.

After what has been witnessed in recent weeks, it is incredibly difficult to know how the Wisconsin Badgers plan on getting any Offensive production this week.

They cannot run the ball and that has meant inconsistent production out of the Quarter Back, regardless of who that has been. In Week 9 they are facing an Oregon Defensive unit that has been very strong all season and Wisconsin scoring any points might be seen as a win, which underlines how far the Badgers have fallen.

The key to the spread is obviously going to be how motivated Oregon are to put up another big effort on the scoreboard, and they should be as they look to continue to impress the Playoff Committee. Jayden Limar is missing at Running Back, but that is not likely to slow down the numbers that the Ducks are able to produce on the ground and they should be able to rip off some big gains throughout the game.

Dante Moore is expected to have time in the pocket when he does drop back to throw and he should have a lot of success from the Quarter Back position. This Badgers team have lost their way and the Secondary have allowed some big plays, which should all add up to Oregon having their way no matter if they choose to run or throw.

It is a big spread, but Oregon will be looking to match the Ohio State win, which came by 34 points on the road- being at home should make it more comfortable and everything is pointing to a big Ducks win.


Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: It might not feel that long ago that this rivalry game could have a huge impact at the top of the Big Ten and for College Football Playoff positions. However, these days the Michigan State Spartans (3-4) are struggling to stay competitive and the 0-4 record in the Big Ten underlines the problem.

Two years ago the Michigan Wolverines (5-2) were National Champions, but they were just 8-5 last season after the unbeaten 2023 run. They are 3-1 in the Big Ten and the Wolverines have bounced back from the defeat to the USC Trojans, while there looks to be an opportunity to climb into the Playoff picture if they can win out this season.

It would include beating rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes for a fifth time in a row and so there is this feeling that there is a lot more to lose for the Wolverines compared with the Michigan State Spartans.

The Spartans are on course for a fourth losing year in a row and the real concern has to be how easily they have been beaten in the Big Ten this season.

Michigan State's Offensive Line have not been able to establish the run all season and that has really become a big issue when stepping into the Conference schedule. They are not expected to have a lot of joy trying to impose themselves at the Line of Scrimmage in this game and that really does put a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back to try and make plays from third and long spots on the field.

After the run of defeats, the Spartans have begun to take a look at Alessio Milivojevic at Quarter Back, but they have been struggling for any consistency out of the position. It doesn't help that the Offensive Line have not been able to stand up in pass protection, although the Wolverines have not been generating the kind of pass rush that they would have liked.

Even then, whether it is Milivojevic or Aidan Chiles at Quarter Back, Michigan State are likely going to see some drives stall, while they are also going to have to be aware of the Michigan Secondary and the ability to turn the ball over.

Running the ball should be more effective for Michigan when they have the ball and that is where the road team have the edge, even when it comes to covering this big spread in a rivalry game.

Keeping the team in third and manageable is clearly an advantage, while Bryce Underwood is developing at the Quarter Back position. He has over 1400 passing yards with 7 Touchdowns and a couple of Interceptions, but has also shown that he can escape pressure and make plays with his legs where needed.

Third and manageable also means being able to make plays through the air with some consistency and that should be the case against the Spartans Secondary. Keeping things ticking over is important as Michigan look to remain close to the very top of the Big Ten.

Rivalry games can produce upsets and Michigan State will be highly motivated to disrupt the Michigan plans for the remainder of the 2025 season. However, they were blown out when last hosting the Wolverines and the the Spartans have simply not shown enough consistency to believe they can avoid another relatively comfortable Big Ten loss.

Head Coach Jonathan Smith played for a cover last week, which is quite remarkable and there is always a chance he gets his team to kick a Field Goal rather than risk going for a Touchdown late in the game, which may cover again, but the Wolverines look strong enough to win by three scores, even on the road.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 31.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Sunday, 25 October 2020

NFL Week 7 Picks 2020 (October 22-26)

The NFL season continues through into Week 7 and this looks like one week where there have been no fallout from the Covid-19 crisis that continues to blight our lives.

The Las Vegas Raiders game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been moved out of the Sunday Night Football slot just in case after the former lost some of their Offensive Linemen to a positive test, but that game is set to go ahead at the time of writing albeit in the late afternoon slot instead.

After another positive week for the Picks, I am looking to keep the momentum going through Week 7.


Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: A 4-2 start to the season may not feel as such for the Cleveland Browns after being blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. Both defeats have come in heavy losses at their Divisional rivals Pittsburgh and the Baltimore Ravens and Odell Beckham Jr made it clear that he is fed up of seeing his team lose to the better teams they have been facing.

Out of the four wins you would have to say that only the Indianapolis Colts could be considered a decent team that the Cleveland Browns have beaten. One of those wins came against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns will be looking to compete the double over them and remain in a strong position to at least push for a PlayOff spot at the end of the regular season.

The Bengals are 1-4-1 on the season as they try and break in rookie Quarter Back Joe Burrow, but they will be very disappointed that they blew a 21-0 lead in their loss at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. Frustrations have also spread to some of their veteran players on both sides of the ball who don't believe they are being used in the correct way and may be looking for a way out of Cincinnati sooner rather than later.

Joe Burrow hasn't played badly for the Bengals, but there have been rookie mistakes and it may be a tough game for him against a motivated Cleveland Browns looking to bounce back from their own loss last time out. He will have to make do without Joe Mixon who has been ruled out, and it is very difficult to imagine Giovani Bernard having a big game on the ground without their star Running Back in the backfield.

The Cleveland Defensive Line has been stout for much of the season and they should be able to clamp down on Bernard, although the veteran could be a threat as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.

While running the ball may be difficult, Joe Burrow may still have a decent outing against this Browns Secondary which is banged up and allowing Quarter Backs to have a strong day throwing the ball. Ben Roethlisberger didn't do a lot last week as the Defensive unit stepped up for Pittsburgh, but even then the Browns have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game through the air on average in their last three games.

With AJ Green in the line up I do think Joe Burrow will have a decent game, although the Offensive Line remains a bit of a mess. The pass protection has not really stood up and this Cleveland front is the strength of the Defensive unit and should be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back if he is left in third and long spots.

Injuries are not only affecting the teams on the this side of the ball, but the Cleveland Browns have to continue to make do without Nick Chubb. I have no doubt that Kareem Hunt is a very good player to fill the gap, but their bigger issue may be whether Baker Mayfield has recovered from the injury that was clearly limiting him in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Baker Mayfield has been in full practice on Thursday and Friday so I do think he will be ready to go, but I think it is important that Hunt establishes the run. The Browns were not able to do that last week, but I think he will have a lot more success against this Bengals Defensive Line which has given up some big yards on the ground and that should mean Mayfield has more chance of having a bounce back performance.

The way Cleveland have largely been able to run the ball means they don't ask Baker Mayfield to do too much, but I can imagine the Quarter Back wants to show he is over whatever was bothering him in Week 6. He is facing a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled to cover Receivers and Mayfield has both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr as well as Austin Hooper to make some big plays for him through the air.

Cincinnati might be able to make some plays in the backfield if Cleveland are in third and long spots, but I do think that is not going to happen often in this one with Kareem Hunt likely to have a big game for the Browns.

As long as Baker Mayfield is much closer to full health as his practice designation would suggest I do like the Browns to bounce back here. They have dealt with the teams they are supposed to this season and have already beaten Cincinnati with the score looking closer than it was thanks to a late Bengals Touchdown.

Cleveland have won four of the last five against the Cincinnati Bengals, although I am a little concerned about backing a team who are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the road favourite. However the Bengals are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog and while this spread has not crossed over a key number I do like the Browns to bounce back in Week 7.


Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was supposed to be a game in which the Green Bay Packers showed by they are the favourites to win the NFC this season, but being a road favourite at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not work out as expected for them. It started well enough with the unbeaten Packers moving into an early 10-0 lead, but back to back Aaron Rodgers Interceptions, one a Pick Six, saw the Buccaneers move ahead and never look back in a blow out win.

There will have been some questions asked of one another in the locker room after the defeat to the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers also suggested the team may not have been as focused as they should have been. Coming off a blow out loss it is hard to imagine Green Bay laying another egg even in a non-Conference game and despite a Divisional Game next on the docket.

Ultimately good teams and good Quarter Backs don't really want to offer back to back defeats at any point and I do think the Packers also know full well they are in a battle in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears so every game could matter. With the Covid-19 issues that remain existent throughout the United States games may yet be cancelled in the regular season so every game should feel that much more important towards the final Seedings for the PlayOffs.

Green Bay are coming off an embarrassing loss on National TV, but the Houston Texans won't be feeling any better having dropped to 1-5 after a late lead was blown against Divisional rivals the Tennessee Titans. Bill O'Brien may be gone and boosted the players, but Houston have been left with some serious holes thanks to the moves made by the former Head Coach/General Manager and it doesn't seem likely that this Texans team will be able to bounce back from a slow start as they have in recent seasons.

The Texans do have Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and he is trying his best to carry this team on his back, but Offensively there is too much inconsistency and the decision to trade away DeAndre Hopkins looks more baffling in each passing week. Watson has had three strong weeks for the Houston Texans, but he is going to need a couple of his Receivers to step up in this one and make plays if they are going to find some consistent throws in this game.

Like many teams who face the Packers, the Houston Texans have to look to establish the run and David Johnson may have one or two nice moments in this one. For all of their strengths, there has to be a worry for the Packers that their Defensive Line have yet to find a way to clamp down on the run and keeping Deshaun Watson in third and short spots will at least give the Quarter Back a chance.

Like I said, I do think Watson will have some success, but he may also have to use his legs to get away from the pass rush pressure. Interceptions have been an issue for Watson, but he should at least give Houston a couple of nice drives in this one. However, I am not sure that will be enough if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers get back to the form they were showing prior to the Bye Week.

The Packers have a future Hall of Fame Quarter Back, but in this one they may be looking to show a little better on the ground behind their Offensive Line. There are one or two injuries on the unit that may have affected their recent performances on the ground and Aaron Jones is Questionable for this one, but even then the Packers may be facing the right opponent to get back on track.

Julian Williams and AJ Dillon are able to fill in for Jones if he is absent and the Houston Texans have allowed teams to run the ball at 5.7 yards per carry on average across their last three games. Last week they were trampled by Derrick Henry and selling out to stop Aaron Rodgers and the passing game should open up some big lanes on the ground.

Aaron Rodgers will be looking to follow up other Quarter Backs who have exposed the Houston Secondary, although he has to be a little wary about playing behind a banged up Offensive Line. The Texans do get after the Quarter Back and they will likely get into the backfield here, but Rodgers is a smart player and can use his feet to give him time from third and manageable spots to hit his Receivers down the field.

I do expect a big performance from Rodgers and he should be able to give the Green Bay Packers the edge in what is likely going to be a shoot out.

Houston are a decent team, but there are issues in the squad on both sides of the ball which they have not managed to overcome. Deshaun Watson won't give up in any game, but his team are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog.

They have not covered in their last six as the underdog overall and Green Bay have covered in their last five games following a straight up loss. Playing indoors should only benefit Aaron Rodgers even more and I like the Packers who played poorly in Week 6.


Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Pick: Only one team remains winless in the 2020 NFL season and the New York Jets will be taking aim at Divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills in a bid to end that unwanted record. It is a big ask of the Jets who have looked like a mess on both sides of the ball and the fans are already hoping the saviour of the franchise is going to be selected with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Trevor Lawrence is the player the fans would love to see suiting up in the green and white jersey next season, but current incumbent starting Quarter Back Sam Darnold is not concerning himself with that talk. It hasn't been that long since Darnold was a First Round selection by the Jets and at 23 years old he is bound to get other offers in the NFL, although things can go downhill quickly when a player is not performing.

At the moment we don't really know if Sam Darnold is performing or not as he has been out injured, but he was back in limited practice this week and may be ready to take over from Joe Flacco. However the young Quarter Back could be missing the likes of Jamison Crowder, who is the main Receiving weapon the Jets have, while Darnold will be playing for the first time without Le'Veon Bell who was released and subsequently signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.

It just makes moving the ball feel like a very difficult task for Sam Darnold even if the Buffalo Bills Defense has not played up to the level of their reputation. Jamison Crowder is a big loss and it is very difficult to lean on Frank Gore at Running Back and hope he is going to set the Jets up.

The Buffalo pass rush may also be able to show some signs of life against this New York Offensive Line which has not been very good in pass protection. If Sam Darnold is limited he may not be able to scramble away from the pressure and that should mean drives are stalled and the worst team in the NFL is going to find it very hard to avoid another double digit defeat.

It sounds much more simple than it is because the Bills are coming off a heavy Monday Night Football loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and they do have to face the long-time kings of the AFC East in Week 8. There is a chance this is a very bad spot for Buffalo, but Josh Allen should be inspired to show he is better than his last performance and he should be able to have a comfortable day throwing into this Secondary.

Josh Allen is going to be tasked with moving the ball as the Bills continue to struggle to establish the run with both Devin Singletary and Zach Moss disappointing so far. The Quarter Back can make a few runs with his legs that can keep the Jets guessing, but the New York strength is on the Defensive Line and so it will be up to Allen to show better accuracy and connect with his Receivers down the field.

A limited pass rush should mean Josh Allen is dealing with a clean pocket and Stefon Diggs and John Brown should be able to win on the outside and make some big plays for their Quarter Back. One issue is that there are a number of Buffalo Tight Ends who have joined the Covid-19 list, although this game is not under threat.

This is a big number, but I do like Buffalo's chances of covering even in the poor spot I mentioned before. The New York Jets have not only been losing games, but they have been getting blown out and I do think the players have perhaps had enough of Adam Gase as Head Coach, while the injuries through the Offense makes it hard to know how the Jets are going to score enough points to make this one competitive.

Buffalo do tend to beat the teams they are expected to as they are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite. The Jets are 8-21-1 against the spread in their last thirty games coming in off a straight up loss of 14 or more points and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at home.


Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team Pick: The NFC (L)East looks to be completely open this season and one of these teams is going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, although it is unlikely to be a Division from which a Wild Card team is produced.

None of the four teams have a winning record and injuries have hurt all four of them, but the Philadelphia Eagles have taken over the top spot in the Division after beating the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. That win pushes the Eagles above the 2-4 Dallas Cowboys and the 1-5 Washington Football Team who meet in a pivotal game on Sunday where the winner may feel there is some momentum behind them.

Both are coming off tough losses in Week 6- the Cowboys were blown out by the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football, while Washington went for a two point conversion at the end of their game against the New York Giants that ultimately failed and dropped them to a one point defeat.

Kyle Allen has been restored to the starting role at Quarter Back for Washington, but he made a couple of big mistakes in Week 6 that cost his team the chance to beat the Giants. Those mistakes hurt all the more when you think of what Allen is supposed to bring to the team, but Ron Rivera has maintained he will be the starter at the moment with Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith behind him.

It would be very helpful to the entire Offense if the home team could establish the run, but the Offensive Line has struggled. They have not found any consistency up front, but the Dallas Defensive Line has been more productive when it comes to the pass rush than run stuffing and so the Football Team may actually have a chance to earn some yards on the ground.

The Quarter Back would appreciate being in third and manageable spots, but more importantly would be able to get the ball out of his hands quickly when looking for short yardage markers. The longer Kyle Allen has to hold the ball the more likely his pass protection breaks down the Cowboys can make some big plays up front.

If he does have time, Kyle Allen can hit some of his Receivers against a weak looking Secondary, but much is going to depend on how much time he is given and how effective any rushing Offense is on Sunday.

Running the ball is going to be all important for the Dallas Cowboys too as Ezekiel Elliot looks to recover from some bad moments scattered throughout the 2020 season. Too many fumbles have been costly for the Cowboys and two more on Monday Night Football saw Dallas fall into a big hole that they are not going to get out of in their current state.

Losing Dak Prescott is a huge blow, but the Offensive Line has been decimated too and that makes it very difficult to believe Andy Dalton is going to have a lot of success here despite the skill players in the Receiving corps. I do think Elliot and Tony Pollard will have a chance to establish the run, but it is also difficult to guess how a second string Offensive Line is going to cope with the Washington Football Team's Defensive Line which remains the strength of this side of the ball.

The Football Team will certainly feel they can harass Dalton into having to let go of the ball quickly and that should give them a chance to slow down what looks a powerful Offensive unit on paper. I expect Andy Dalton to be better in his second full start, but he was also very close to some big turnovers in Week 6 and this Washington team have been able to turn the ball over.

That could be key for giving Washington enough Offensive drives to earn the victory and I do think they are capable of doing that behind their strong pass rush. That should see Washington make some big plays and potentially win the turnover battle that can prove to be the difference in so many games in the NFL.

Dallas have won seven of the last eight runnings of this Divisional rivalry and that can't be dismissed easily.

Both teams have some poor trends of late, but I think the Offensive Line issues are going to be a problem for Dallas and that should see Washington edge to the win.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The rich have gotten richer in the NFL after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to sign Antonio Brown to add to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as serious Receiving weapons for Tom Brady. They already showed that they may be the team to beat in the NFC with their crushing win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 6 and that came behind a strong Defensive effort rather than Brady and the Offense taking over.

As each week passes you do feel that Brady and the rest of the Buccaneers are understanding each other more and more and I do think that will see Tampa Bay look to peak at the right time. At 4-2 Tampa Bay top the NFC South and they will feel they can challenge for the top Seed in the NFC even though the Seattle Seahawks are still an unbeaten team in the Conference.

To do that the Buccaneers can't afford to drop any game so even these non-Conference outings are very important for the team. Offensively they will feel they can have success against the Las Vegas Raiders who are off a Bye Week having beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 in a huge upset on the road.

That is a very strong win for Jon Gruden and his team and should have the entire team believing this is a potentially big season for them. The Raiders are definitely on the right path to success and they will certainly feel that they can earn a Wild Card spot in the AFC at the very least this season.

This is another 'prove it' kind of game for the Raiders who are in the midst of a very tough part of their schedule. The challenge for Las Vegas is taking on a Tampa Bay Defensive unit which just hammered Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and the Raiders are going to have to do that being short-handed on the Offensive Line.

We are still not entirely sure how many of the Offensive Line will be missing, but there are going to be a number of them on the sidelines and that is not good news for Derek Carr. Usually he could at least lean on Josh Jacobs to put the team in third and manageable spots, but Tampa Bay have been incredibly stout when it comes to stopping the run so the pressure looks to be shifted to the Quarter Back.

Derek Carr has impressed in 2020, but if he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line he is going to be put under pressure by the Buccaneers pass rush which dominated the Packers in Week 6. That will slow down the passing game of the Raiders and the Buccaneers Secondary have played well too which suggests this could be a very difficult day for the Las Vegas Raiders.

That will also mean there is pressure on the Raiders Defensive unit to step up their own play, but I don't think Tampa Bay will have too many problems moving the chains. The threat of Tom Brady means Ronald Jones has been able to establish the run and he is facing a Raiders Defensive Line which has given up 4.8 yards per carry across their last three games.

Keeping that balance will make Tampa Bay very effective Offensively and Tom Brady has been well protected by the Offensive Line which means he can attack a Secondary giving up over 250 yards per game through the air. I expect Brady to have a strong day and his Receiving corps to show they should still be given priority targets even when Antonio Brown arrives next month.

It is a big line, but I do like the Buccaneers to win on the road.

The Raiders have performed well as the home underdog, but they are 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen off a Bye Week and I do have to have major concerns with the problems on the Offensive Line. It should mean the Buccaneers Defensive unit can have another big impact on the game like they did in Week 6 and those plays should give Tampa Bay the opportunity to pull away for a good looking win on the road.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 10 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team - 1 Point @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Friday, 25 October 2019

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (October 25-27)

The third round of Group games are in the books in both the Champions League and Europa League and it was a very big week for all of the Premier League clubs.

Seven matches were played and the English clubs won all seven which means they are all in strong positions to book their places in the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions and possibly ahead of the final Match Day of Group games too. That is important as managers and players will be looking for any kind of rest they can earn in December during the busy festive period so expect all of those clubs looking to put another three points on the board in the rematches of the Match Day 3 fixtures on Match Day 4.

There are a couple of weeks between those European fixtures and in that time we have a couple of League games to come as well as the League Cup Fourth Round during the week between those sets of fixtures.

Below I have my selections for the weekend football, which begins on Friday, as well as a brief look at GW10 of the Fantasy Football season.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: The Premier League weekend opens up with a Friday Night Football offering from the south coast as Southampton prepare to take on Leicester City. The two teams might be on opposite ends of the Premier League table, but I think it could be an entertaining affair with both Southampton and Leicester City capable of creating chances but not always being the most convincing at the back.

That has certainly been the case for Southampton who continue to be let down by defensive errors while they have long been a popular 'Both Teams to Score' choice. 17 of the last 18 Premier League games played at St Mary's have ended with that being the outcome and I have little reason to think it won't be the case on Friday with the way Southampton have been performing.

Leicester City might have something to say about that with a decent defensive team capable of springing out on the counter attack. However they have conceded in 12 straight away Premier League games and that includes all 9 played under Brendan Rodgers. In fact Leicester City have only had 2 clean sheets all season and one of those was against ten man Newcastle United, while the other was thanks to a very dubious decision to disallow a Wolves goal on the opening weekend.

This all seems to be lost on the layers who are offering up close to odds against quotes on there being at least three goals shared out on Friday. I know Leicester City are not a prolific goal-scoring team, but they do like getting forward and I would not be surprised if Southampton help out with more defensive mistakes, while The Saints have been creating plenty of chances under Ralph Hasenhuttl and will be looking to exploit the lack of clean sheets their visitors have had on their travels.

4 of the last 5 Premier League games between these clubs have featured at least three goals share out. The last 4 at St Mary's between Southampton and Leicester City have done the same and there hasn't been a lack of goals in their home/away fixtures respectively this season.

A rainy day and the potential of a 1-1 scoreline is the biggest threat to this selection going wrong, but I do think both managers will be keen in being positive to earn the three points. It should gel into a decent football game on Friday night and I am backing at least three goals to be shared out.


Manchester City v Aston Villa Pick: The conditions in Manchester on Saturday might be the biggest hindrance to Manchester City when they host Aston Villa with heavy rain expected around the time this game kicks off. That will settle down during the ninety minutes and I think it is going to be a very difficult day for the visitors especially after seeing the kind of form Manchester City have displayed in the last seven days.

Comfortable wins over Crystal Palace and Atalanta have seen Manchester City score seven goals, while they are now facing an Aston Villa team who have had some real problems at the back. Those should be exposed by the levels Manchester City have produced throughout the season, although the real question mark remains in defensive areas as Manchester City continue to struggle to make up for the losses of Vincent Kompany and Aymeric Laporte.

Teams are creating chances against Manchester City and I do think Aston Villa's approach will see them do the same. Brighton came here earlier in the season and did have opportunities, although the approach does mean more spaces for Manchester City to expose as they did that day in a 4-0 win.

Aston Villa do not have a very good record at the Etihad Stadium in recent visits, but the last of those was over three years ago and Dean Smith won't be worrying about that. He has shown he wants his Aston Villa team to be positive and I do think there is every chance they can score at the Etihad this weekend.

If they do it will make the Asian Handicap look very big and one of the few times I might want to oppose a rampant Manchester City team. Pep Guardiola's one match in charge of this fixture did end 4-0 to Manchester City, but they will need to match that margin for a full payout here on the main Asian Handicap line.

However, I do think there might be some juice in playing the slightly adjusted line in favour of Manchester City this weekend. That will offer a full payout with a win by three or more goals and I do think they can match the tally that both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have managed in home games against Aston Villa this season.

While I do think Villa will score this weekend, I also have seen a team who give up hatfuls of chances and facing the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling is a huge challenge for them. Those three players have combined for six of the seven Manchester City goals in the past week and I do think the team will be chomping at the bit to close the gap on Liverpool with another strong showing here.

Pep Guardiola won't have forgotten the last Premier League result at home and I think his team will prove they have too many goal threats for Aston Villa to manage on the day. If they fall behind like they did on Tuesday it could be very difficult to surpass this line, but Manchester City scoring first should see them come through with a comfortable win in an entertaining affair that Aston Villa will contribute to with their own positive approach.


Brighton v Everton Pick: A lack of goals looks to be holding back both Brighton and Everton who are sitting inside the bottom six of the Premier League table when they meet on Saturday.

They come into this fixture in contrasting moods as a late goal secured the three points for Everton in a 2-0 win last time out, while Brighton lost a point when conceding deep into injury time against Aston Villa at Villa Park.

The venue is all important here when you consider the struggles Everton have had on their travels. A lack of goals has to be a concern, but they did create chances at Bournemouth and Burnley which should bode well for them.

Brighton have been stronger at home and could easily have three wins here already having been the better team in draws with West Ham United and Burnley before hammering Tottenham Hotspur. A progressive side under Graham Potter, I do think Brighton will get forward and cause problems here and the only game in which they have failed to score at home was the one in which they were reduced to ten men after half an hour against Southampton.

Yerry Mina being potentially ruled out will leave Everton short at the back and I do think Brighton can exploit that, but the latter will have their own chances. With Potter's style, Brighton are not as watertight defensively and Everton have pace that should at least create one or two big opportunities to score too.

Backing both teams to score looks to be the play with half of their previous 4 Premier League games ending that way. A first half goal for either team could really open up the match and I do think there will be enough positive play in the final third to see chances created at both ends.

I was hoping the 'Both Teams to Score' market would have continued to underestimate the new look Brighton, but they are about right with the prices and that is my selection.


Watford v Bournemouth Pick: This looks a really difficult game to have a very good feeling about.

Watford are the favourites, but Bournemouth have been in the better overall form and have a decent record at Vicarage Road including thumping them 0-4 here last season. The goalless draw with Norwich City last weekend was a disappointment for Bournemouth, while Watford might feel they deserved more than the point they earned at Tottenham Hotspur, so it does feel a close game that might be decided by fine margins.

A draw can't be ruled out- 8 of the last 11 between these clubs have ended with the points shared out and I would not be surprised to see that again. However I do think there are better plays out there this weekend and will leave this one alone.


West Ham United v Sheffield United Pick: After the results last weekend I am sure there will be one or two people out there backing Sheffield United to continue their away Premier League successes with a victory at the London Stadium.

Any team who earns back to back away clean sheets in this Division have to be respected and a 'never say die' attitude instilled by the manager has seen Sheffield United come from 1-0 down to earn a draw with Bournemouth and 2-0 down to do the same at Stamford Bridge.

Those results have to be respected, but I can't help think that Sheffield United have overachieved and ridden their luck to their successful unbeaten start to the season away from home. Andre Gray missed an absolute sitter against them in the goalless draw at Vicarage Road and I do think we will see a much better performance from West Ham United who were dire at Everton last weekend.

The Hammers were beaten by Crystal Palace last time out here too which is a concern for Manuel Pellegrini, but I am not sure Sheffield United have the goals to really expose what has been a vulnerable defence. West Ham United also had clean sheets in wins over Norwich City and Manchester United here so they won't be too worried about bouncing back from a couple of setbacks.

West Ham United score goals and that will always give them a chance and one that should lead to an important three points this weekend. I do think Sheffield United will have their moments and this is a team that clearly doesn't lie down for anyone they face, but the lack of goals is a long-term concern for me unless they can resolve that in January.

It might be the difference between these teams on the day as Sheffield United may also find it hard to get the energy back after a strong showing in the win over Arsenal last Monday. Backing West Ham United on the Asian Handicap to return half the stake in the event of a draw looks the angle for me here as I think they have enough in the final third to edge out a tough Sheffield United outfit.


Burnley v Chelsea Pick: Frank Lampard said his boys turned into men in the win over Ajax in the Champions League on Wednesday and I have to admit that Chelsea were very deserving of their success. They have some very talented players in the squad who are building experiences at the highest level, but Lampard's statement will be tested by a rugged Burnley team on Saturday.

This is the second of the live televised games being broadcast on Saturday and looks like a really good one on paper. Burnley have been strong at home and have also given the likes of Arsenal, Wolves and Leicester City plenty food for thought away from home while having a week to prepare for this fixture.

That could be key, especially as Burnley will have been stewing after being 'wronged' in the defeat at Leicester City last weekend. A controversial decision to disallow an equaliser will have not sat well with anyone associated with the club, but Burnley won't allow that to distract them here.

You know what you are going to get with Burnley as they look to make things difficult and find long balls to the likes of Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes. The latter might be missing this weekend, but Wood has been in great form himself and I do think Chelsea will be tested in a much different way than Ajax managed.

This time they will be faced by a team strong from set pieces and it will be difficult to keep another clean sheet having secured two already over the past week.

On the other side I do expect Chelsea to cause problems of their own as they are a fairly big team, but also have talented forwards in the final third that can create something out of nothing. The return of Callum Hudson-Odoi has been huge for Chelsea and I do think they will just about edge this game on recent away performances.

I would think Chelsea need at least two goals to win here and so backing them to win a game featuring at least that many at odds against looks the play. They have won 4 of their last 5 visits to Turf Moor and on each occasion Chelsea have needed at least two goals with the exception being a 1-1 draw.

Burnley will be tough and hard to beat as always, but Chelsea can show how much they have been learning by making it a seventh win in a row in all competitions.


Newcastle United v Wolves Pick: The Europa League is expected to tax a squad that looks to be as shallow as the one Wolves have, but they have managed to find some big results out of the Thursday games. The biggest was the 0-2 win at Manchester City prior to the last international break, but it is still hard to have complete faith in them.

Wolves just simply haven't been creating a lot of chances and you do think one goal is enough to get something from them. Whether Newcastle United have that in themselves is difficult to call too and like the layers I am finding it hard to separate these teams.

It might not be the best game to watch for those tuning in to the first of two live games on Sunday afternoon and I don't really have a good feel for the match.


Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: The layers are never going to offer the best prices for the big six in the Premier League and that is the case this weekend when Arsenal host Crystal Palace.

You have to credit the home team for the fight they have shown to recover from losing positions of late so they are deserved favourites, but they look short and hard to back when you think of the way Crystal Palace have played against the top six clubs over the last twelve months.

They have won at Old Trafford and the Etihad Stadium and Crystal Palace also won at Arsenal a few months ago. However the layers aren't offering appealing prices on Roy Hodgson's men either and backing goals are plenty short too which makes me believe better options are out there with the live televised game that is being played at the same time.


Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The second of the Super Sunday live televised fixtures comes from Anfield as Liverpool look to keep their positive run moving forward at home and to maintain the lead they have over Manchester City coming into the weekend. The likelihood is that Manchester City would have beaten Aston Villa on Saturday which means an 8 point lead in the Premier League table is down to 3 points by kick off, but Liverpool should be confident at home.

They have won 13 in a row at Anfield in all competitions and Liverpool are scoring plenty of goals in those fixtures with at least two scored in each. That is always going to give them a chance to win football matches and they are now facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not been in good form.

Even taking on board the 5-0 win over Crvena Zvezda, Tottenham Hotspur have struggled for consistency and beating an overmatched opponent doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. The away form has been particularly poor in the Premier League with 8 losses from the last 10 games on their travels and I find it very difficult to believe Spurs can get something from this one.

However you should remember that one of the exceptions to those defeats was a 2-2 draw at Manchester City when Tottenham Hotspur rode their luck massively. It shows they can do that and Tottenham Hotspur did create chances in games against Liverpool last season despite losing all three of the fixtures against this opponent.

My expectation is that Liverpool will have too much, but I also anticipate this being a fixture that features a few goals. Backing Liverpool to win a game that has at least three goals featured would have been a winner in both Premier League games played between these teams last season and I think that is the most likely outcome here.

At odds against that has to be worth a back in my opinion.


Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: It says all you need to know about the current mindset of the manager and the club when you hear Ole Gunnar Solskjaer suggest he wants to 'stop' Norwich City when Manchester United visit Carrow Road on Sunday.

After a win in Belgrade he is also hoping to have some momentum to build upon, but it was another underwhelming performance as Manchester United continue to lack real creativity. Yet again a penalty is the best source of goals for Manchester United and very little outside of that was produced in the final third.

Things could change this weekend when they visit a Norwich City team who have conceded a host of goals in the Premier League this season as injuries have piled up. Norwich City have conceded at least two goals in each of their last 3 at Carrow Road, but Manchester United have not managed that many in a single game since the opening weekend of the season so something is going to have to give.

There are goals in the Norwich City team which makes them a threat and they did score at least twice against Chelsea and Manchester City here. Recent games have not been the best for Norwich City, but they will believe in their abilities at Carrow Road and there is plenty pointing to goals being the outcome of this one.

Manchester United have not scored enough goals to think they are a good thing at odds on here. And that is especially not the case when you think Norwich City could create the chances to hurt their visitors.

The home team receiving a start on the Asian Handicap looks the right angle here. However I am going to move past this as I hope Manchester United can prove my feeling wrong.

MY PICKS: Southampton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Everton Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

October 2019/20: 11-13-1, - 2.26 Units (50 Units Staked, - 4.52% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)



Fantasy Football GameWeek10
In a GW where the average score was 37 points, picking up 54 points was a boost and resulted in plenty of green arrows on the screen which is all I can really ask for each week.

My only disappointment is that once again I have missed out on the right Captain and that continues to frustrate me. Last week it was Tammy Abraham who should have scored at least once, but instead I only earned the basic two points from him.

Callum Hudson-Odoi, Youri Tielemans and a couple of clean sheets proved important to tick the points along.

In GW10 I do have one free transfer to use on my team and I think it is important to use it because of the way the fixtures have panned out. You can see the semi-risky move I am going to do below, although it is one that could easily be one I regret very quickly.

You can see my GW10 below as I look to build on last week and keep the green arrows coming. My aim is to use this squad for the next two GW and then have two transfers ready to go for the final game before the November international break.


Ederson- two home games against Aston Villa and Southampton to come. Both teams do offer a counter attacking threat against Manchester City, but you would expect at least one clean sheet.

Benjamin Mendy- with the injuries in the defensive areas, Benjamin Mendy may be back in a position to be the Fantasy darling he was prior to his injury in 2018/19. Has started back to back games this week, but I think he could be set for a run and I liked the Manchester City fixtures over the next two weeks despite the dangers both Villa and Southampton pose.

Andy Robertson- as he showed last week, the potential for assists covers up the lack of clean sheets. I expect that to begin to change very quickly though with Liverpool having some nice fixtures coming up.

Fiyako Timori- back to back clean sheets will be a boost for Chelsea, and Burnley could be down both Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood this weekend.

Sadio Mane- goal-scoring form can't be ignored, impossible to drop and has to start regardless of fixtures.

Raheem Sterling (C)- another huge performance from Raheem Sterling shows he has entered the 'world class' category of players. Picking him as Captain an easy choice but could be rested after two big games.

Youri Tielemans- a goal last week in the win over Burnley and now faces a Southampton team that can't keep a clean sheet.

Todd Cantwell- has been offering nothing in recent weeks, but Norwich City are a different proposition at home.

Callum Hudson-Odoi- a huge influence for Chelsea in the last couple of weeks as he returns from an injury and has to start.

Josh King- I have to assume King was rested last week because of his Norway commitments, but will have a watch on him in the coming weeks. Bournemouth have a nice set of fixtures and King has scored four goals in last three fixtures at Vicarage Road.

Tammy Abraham- possibly under pressure from Olivier Giroud and Michy Batshuayi for playing time, but for now Tammy Abraham is Chelsea's first choice striker. That makes him a must start.


Bench- Michael McGovern, John Lundstram (tough away game at West Ham United, but happy to have him as first sub), Caglar Soyuncu (difficult away game at Southampton who have scored in 18 home Premier League games in a row), Xande Silva.

Thursday, 25 October 2018

WTA Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 25th)

The WTA Finals will begin to set up the Semi Finals at this tournament over the next two days as the Group matches come to a conclusion.

First up is the White Group where all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final after four of the six Group matches have been completed.

For some there is no room for error- Petra Kvitova needs to win in straight sets and hope Elina Svitolina does the same if the Czech player wants to make it through to the Semi Final. Any other result will keep her compatriot alive, but Karolina Pliskova will feel destiny is her own hands and a first win over Kvitova will be enough to move her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the final match in the Group.

You would assume Elina Svitolina has made it through to the Semi Final, but two wins have not been enough to confirm her place in the Semi Final. She will know all the permutations by the time she takes to the court to play Caroline Wozniacki, but right now Svitolina will know one more set will be enough unless Petra Kvitova wins the early match when her place in the Semi Final will be secured.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: There is always some doubt around a player when they have not been able to beat another, especially when it comes to playing someone from the same country. That is certainly an issue for Karolina Pliskova on Thursday when she faces Petra Kvitova in the final Group match for both players.

In all honesty Pliskova also has to get over the disappointment of losing a tight three set match against Elina Svitolina, a match that she should have arguably won. That would have been enough to secure a Semi Final spot in Singapore and now she has to face a dangerous opponent who may not have much to lose.

Petra Kvitova suffered a tough loss a couple of days ago too when she was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in three sets. That defeat has put her on the brink of exiting the tournament and Kvitova knows she can't even afford to lose one set if she is going to have a chance to play in the Semi Final on Saturday.

She hasn't really been playing well enough to think Kvitova is capable of doing that, but having won all three previous matches against Pliskova means she has the mental edge in this match. This is also a different sort of match for both players as they face another big hitter rather than a player who may be using their superior movement to get the better of them around the court.

It does mean first strike tennis is all important and I am giving the edge to Pliskova with the way she has been serving. Pliskova has also been winning a lot more tennis matches than Kvitova over the last six weeks since the US Open was completed and that may be enough for Pliskova to finally get in a position to better her compatriot.

The favourites have really struggled at the WTA Finals so far with their 1-7 record against the spread and just 2-6 record straight up. That may have a lot to do with how little separation can be made from the top players on the Tour at the moment but Pliskova can earn a win for the favourites by edging out Kvitova in three sets.


Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Things will be much clearer for both of these players when they take to the court for the second of the Group matches to be played in the White Group on Thursday. If Petra Kvitova has beaten Karolina Pliskova it will be good enough for Elina Svitolina to have earned a Semi Final spot, but otherwise she is going to need at least one set from this match.

For Caroline Wozniacki it is clear that she needs to win this match but she will know that he has to win the match in straight sets if Karolina Pliskova has won the first Singles match going onto the court. A Kvitova win would mean Wozniacki just needs to win this match and so it could be a tense affair regardless.

This is the second season in a row that Wozniacki and Svitolina are meeting in the Group Stage of the WTA Finals, although last year it was the first match for the two players. On that occasion Wozniacki lost just two games in her win over Svitolina which also snapped a career record of 0-3 against the Ukrainian.

You would think that Wozniacki is very happy in the conditions and she has shown her desire to be here and defend the title she won last season in her win over Kvitova a couple of days ago. She will need to bring some of her best tennis to the court to beat Svitolina whose own confidence has to be in a good place after winning both of her previous matches, even if she was a little fortunate to be in the position to win the match against Pliskova.

Out of the two players it is Wozniacki who has shown more consistent form since the end of the US Open and she will be confident having beaten Svitolina here last year. There is a chance that Svitolina just relaxes having invested so much to win her first two matches in the tournament and I also think Wozniacki can get enough joy from the return of serve to be in a position to win this match.

I do worry that Wozniacki perhaps loses her own focus if Pliskova wins and she drops a set in this match. That would mean she is going out of the tournament whether she wins or loses this match and the desire may come off her game and reduce the intensity of her performance.

Personally I think Wozniacki will look to end her season on a high with a win no matter what it means for her future in the tournament and I will back her to cover as the favourite for the second time in Singapore.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 9-6, + 6.22 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.73% Yield)