Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 10-11)

January has opened very tough for the picks but this is a quieter week for the teams who've just come off a really busy December and early part of this month.

It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.

However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.


Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.

None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.

Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.

Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.

I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.

This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.

Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.

A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.

Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.

The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

January Update: 6-13, - 13.50 Units (38 Units Staked, - 35.53% Yield)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (January 10-11)

After the hectic festive period and the FA Cup Third Round taking over last weekend, the Premier League is back in action along with a couple of the big European Leagues following on from their 'Winter Break'.

The opening of the January transfer window means teams are looking to do the business that will either put them over the edge when it comes to winning big trophies or avoiding the drop from the Premier League. The money involved in the top flight means most are desperate to prolong their stay and that also resulted in the likes of Neil Warnock and Alan Irvine losing their jobs at Crystal Palace and West Brom respectively.

The appointment of Tony Pulis looks a good one for West Brom to maintain their status as a Premier League club, although he needs to work his magic over the next three weeks to ensure the Baggies have enough quality about them. A goalscorer will be high on the list of targets for Pulis as well as Alan Pardew, the new boss at Selhurst Park, and the likes of Leicester City. The latter have already completed the signing of Andrej Kramaric in a bid to rectify their issues in front of goal, although they have to wait for a work permit before he can make his debut for the Foxes.


Steven Gerrard also announced that he is definitely leaving Liverpool at the end of his contract and that he has signed with the Los Angeles Galaxy (signed as in put pen to paper and not what Frank Lampard hasn't done with the New York City team that he was on 'loan' from at Manchester City).

That means Gerrard, who gave me the highlight of 2014 by slipping up and costing Liverpool the Premier League title, is unlikely to ever win the one trophy he coveted most at Anfield.

However, if I was take off the Manchester United glasses for just a second, I was surprised by some of the comments that people were making about the player I would definitely have partnering Roy Keane if putting together my personal 'best team from the Premier League era'.

There are those that have criticised his inability to defend properly, but Gerrard was someone you wanted thirty yards from the opponent's goal, not thirty yards from his own, and he was not a terrible player that was constantly out of position as some suggested. As good as Paul Scholes, Patrick Vieira and Frank Lampard have been over the last twenty seasons, Gerrard was above them in my opinion and only comes second to Roy Keane in the midfield ranks since the Premier League was formed.

He might not have produced for England, but did produce plenty for Liverpool and was amongst the best midfielders of his generation throughout Europe.


United glasses back on- I'll always be thankful to Gerrard for that memory he gave me back in April 2014!


After the rush of games through December when it seemed like the Premier League was on every other day to the complaints of the players, January is a much quieter month with the League games broken up by the domestic Cup competitions. In two weeks time the FA Cup Fourth Round will be played, although the draw was once again a little bit of anti-climax.

However, that does mean that the Cup is likely to produce some big games as the teams are thinned out which may play into Manchester United's hands once the other clubs are back in European action next month. I've said it before, but I'll say it again- I'd fancy United's chances of beating any team at Old Trafford, even Chelsea and Manchester City if those clubs are concentrating on Champions League football, and the long wait for the FA Cup trophy to return to Old Trafford has every chance of ending this season.


The New Year's Day picks had a pretty horrific time of things but it was just a strange day all around when you consider how the picks I made played out.

Stoke City and Manchester United shared two goals in the first half hour of their game but neither could push on for the winner (Over 2.5 Goals Pick).

Liverpool were 2-0 up, but Leicester City fought back for the draw (Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap Pick).

Queens Park Rangers conceded a last minute equaliser to ten man Swansea (QPR to Win Pick).

Southampton beat Arsenal 2-0, but it could have easily been 3 or 4 on another day while Arsenal also had a few chances their way (Over 2.5 Goals Pick).

West Ham United drew 1-1 with West Brom, but that was probably the fair result (West Ham United to Win Pick).

Tottenham Hotspur crushed Chelsea 5-3 (Over 2.5 Goals Pick).

Hopefully there will be a little more fortune sprinkled on the picks over the next set of fixtures and weeks beyond as that seems to be a key reason for a remarkably poor season after back to back profitable seasons.


Sunderland v Liverpool Pick: The first live game of the Premier League weekend looks certain to be a tight affair when Sunderland host Liverpool, especially after the latter lost the creativity of Adam Lallana and are still awaiting the return of Daniel Sturridge.

In recent weeks, Brendan Rodgers has seemed to have found the right formula for his Liverpool team, especially away from home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and have won 3 in a row. However there remain some real vulnerabilities in the mental outlook of Liverpool and Leicester City became the latest team to take advantage by coming from two goals down to earn a 2-2 draw at Anfield on New Year's Day.

It is going to be a tough game for Liverpool at the Stadium of Light where Sunderland have been difficult to beat for the most part. They would have been largely disappointed with the 1-3 loss to Hull City in their most recent home game in the Premier League, but Sunderland are a team that don't concede a lot of goals at the Stadium of Light usually.

Liverpool will find it tough to break down Sunderland as Chelsea found a few weeks ago and there is always a chance the home side can force a mistake from this back three/four that have struggled for clean sheets. That almost has me leaning towards backing Sunderland to earn a surprising three points and move a little clearer of the bottom three, but I am not at all confident that a team with just 1 home League win all season is a big enough price here.

The away team have either won or lost away from home in the Premier League this season, but Sunderland are the draw specialists of the Division and don't have a lot of goals in the side. That could be a problem for them in trying to turn draws into wins unless rectified in the January transfer window and this game could easily see the points shared.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: It was no surprise to see Chelsea respond to their shocking 5-3 loss at Tottenham Hotspur by beating Watford comfortably in the FA Cup Third Round, but I still think Jose Mourinho will have been getting on top of his players over the last ten days. Mourinho looked shell-shocked by what he was seeing at White Hart Lane and I expect he will be demanding another strong performance at Stamford Bridge to put memories of that result in the past.

He might not have asked for a much better opponent than a Newcastle United side that has just lost their manager and whose fans have already begun to turn on temporary replacement John Carver. There are so many injuries and suspensions in the away side's dressing room that they could see heads drop if they fall behind in this one, especially as Newcastle have lost their last 4 away games.

Prior to the loss at Leicester City in the FA Cup Third Round, Newcastle had conceded 11 goals in 3 games at Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United and some of the defending doesn't bode well for their trip to Chelsea. This is a team that has scored at least twice in 11 straight games at home in all competitions and handily dismissed Newcastle United at home last season and it is hard to see any other result in this game.

Most of the top stars for Chelsea got a rest during the win over Watford in the FA Cup which means they should be raring to go on Saturday in this Premier League game. Compared with December, January is a month where games are spread much more thinly so I expect Jose Mourinho to put out a strong side that will want to get the job done against Newcastle United in impressive manner to right the wrongs of the result at Spurs.

Covering 2 goals won't be straight-forward, but this Newcastle United side have conceded plenty of goals away from home recently and Chelsea can match the margins that Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur both achieved. A win by exactly 2 goals returns stakes, but I like Chelsea to go the extra step and cover this with another comfortable day in the office at home.


Swansea v West Ham United Pick: Andy Carroll should return to the West Ham United squad for this game, but there are some decent strikers that won't be in action with Diafra Sakho a doubt and Wilfried Bony at the African Cup of Nations ahead of a potential move to Manchester City.

With Sakho and Bony absent, some may be looking for a game featuring fewer goals than anticipated, but I think both Swansea and West Ham United will continue playing in the same attacking manner which has made the first half of this season so positive for them. Both teams have scored 15 goals in their home/away games respectively and I think both Garry Monk and Sam Allardyce will consider this a winnable game so are unlikely to ask their players to take a step back.

I am anticipating there will be goals shared by these sides with the way that both have played this season, although I can't ignore the fact that Bony and Sakho are missing. There are still goals in both teams though and neither defence can really point to very strong performances to suggest there won't be chances in this game.

Swansea earned a clean sheet against Aston Villa in their last home game, but anyone who saw the chances the away side had in that game would know that West Ham are more than capable of scoring at least once here. On the other hand, West Ham United are yet to earn a clean sheet away from home and Swansea have only failed to score in one home game so the expectation would be that both teams score at least once.

A high-scoring draw is not out of the question, but a 2-1 result either way could be the outcome of this game on Saturday and I will back there being goals at close to odds against.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Alan Pardew wouldn't have asked for a much better game to open his reign as manager of Crystal Palace than playing a non-League club in the FA Cup Third Round, and the 0-4 at Dover would have been a welcome reprieve from some of the pressures of the Premier League.

The competition level increases ten-fold this weekend for Crystal Palace as they host a Tottenham Hotspur team that beat Chelsea 5-3 in their last League game and who have only seen Manchester City win more away games than them this season.

Without a doubt Tottenham have rode their luck at times on their travels with wins at Aston Villa and Hull City coming in thanks to late goals against teams trying to defend with ten men, while the victory at Swansea was after being outplayed for much of the game before another late winner. However, they have been winning those games and will be confident they can add to the problems that Crystal Palace have been having.

Crystal Palace haven't won a Premier League game since beating Liverpool 3-1 here back in late November, but the confidence of a new manager could certainly change their fortunes. That might give them the boost to beat this Tottenham Hotspur team that have vulnerabilities defensively, although Palace have to be aware of the attacking threat Spurs pose through an in-form Harry Kane.

Christian Eriksen has been scoring away from home with 3 goals in Spurs' last 4 away Premier League games and all of those have been the winning goal.

The one stand out from Tottenham away games is the feature of the 1-2 win and their 9 games on their travels have averaged 3 goals per game. 4 of the last 6 Crystal Palace home games have also featured at least three goals including their 1-3 home defeat to Southampton in their most recent game at Selhurst Park and the one that effectively cost Neil Warnock his job.

There have been more problems for Palace when it comes to goal-scoring, but they have only failed to find the net in 1 of their last 7 home games in the League and Spurs haven't earned an away clean sheet since the opening day of the season in the Premier League. With Tottenham's ability at the other end of the pitch, I am surprised the layers are dangling odds against quotes on there being at least three goals in this game, the second live TV game on Saturday.


Arsenal v Stoke City Pick: As disappointing as the 2-0 loss at Southampton was, Arsenal have actually been playing some decent attacking football in recent weeks and they have definitely felt more comfortable at the Emirates Stadium. That has shown up with 5 straight wins at home in all competitions and Arsenal have scored 11 goals in that run of games, while a fast start has put them on the front foot in each of those games.

Even the loss to Manchester United featured a very good first half hour for Arsenal and they could easily have been leading in that game by that point too with better finishing. The return of Olivier Giroud from suspension gives them a player that is happy leading the line and also means the likes of Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and Theo Walcott have someone to play off.

The first thirty minutes are going to be vital for both teams in this one you would feel as Arsenal could be hard to peg back if they get their noses in front, while Stoke City are going to be looking to make life very difficult for them.

In recent seasons Stoke have struggled to really impose themselves against Arsenal away from the Brittania Stadium, but Mark Hughes has certainly got his side playing better on their travels than their fans have been accustomed to seeing. That includes wins at Manchester City and Everton this season and close losses at Liverpool and Manchester United so this could be a more difficult game for Arsenal than some may expect.

However, I think the Gunners have found something of a groove at home in the last six weeks and I am expecting another fast start to pay off for them. If they do score in the first thirty minutes, I would expect Arsenal to use their pace on the counter attack to pick off Stoke City who are missing their own key threats in Mame Diouf and Bojan.

Arsenal should then prove to be too strong and come through with the three points thanks to a win by a couple of goals at least.


Manchester United v Southampton Pick: How many people would have predicted Manchester United versus Southampton would be a top four clash at this stage of the season back in August? Both teams were coming into the season off an intriguing summer of transfer activity which had Southampton as a dark horse for relegation, while a poor start for Manchester United had left them off the pace.

With more than half of the season played, both Manchester United and Southampton are a genuine contender to finish in the top four and a Champions League place that brings, although neither will be expected to chase down Chelsea and Manchester City at the top of the table.

That does mean this game has added importance to build some confidence to take into the final five months of the season, while both Dutch managers will believe they can take advantage of a lack of European football compared with the teams around them.

Sunday should be an interesting game between these teams if the game at St Mary's is anything to go by, although it has to be said that Manchester United have saved their best performances for Old Trafford this season. Defensively they still look vulnerable and the likes of Graziano Pelle are still dangerous despite his lack of goals in the last couple of months.

Pelle scored when these teams met at St Mary's and the likes of Dusan Tadic and Shane Long offer Southampton pace which can pose problems for Manchester United.

On the other hand, I expect Manchester United to cause problems for a team that has kept just 1 clean sheet from their last 9 away games in all competitions and the attacking talent at Louis Van Gaal's disposal have proven to be clinical in front of goal. They have also been scoring plenty of goals at home with 11 in their last 4 Premier League games at Old Trafford and I do think Manchester United will have the edge in this game.

However, United also have just 4 clean sheets at home this season and teams are always likely to have chances against them so backing Manchester United to win a game where both teams score looks a big price.

MY PICKS: Sunderland-Liverpool Draw @ 3.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Swansea-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 4.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

January Update: 1-5, - 7.10 Units (11 Units Staked, - 64.5% Yield)

December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Play Offs Divisional Round 2015 (January 10-11)

Let's be brutally honest for a moment- the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs was mostly a yawn inducing experience until the moment that Pete Morelli's crew picked up the flag for pass interference in the Detroit Lions game at the Dallas Cowboys on a vital Third Down play. They then exasperated everyone watching the game by just stating simply that it was Fourth Down and failing to explain why the flag had been picked up and continuing with the game.

Matt Stafford was unhappy when his appearance in Mic'd Up was released on the Tuesday following the Sunday game, Jim Caldwell felt the explanation he was eventually given was 'not good enough' while many other players were unsure as to what exactly had happened.

Barry Church said he would have called Defensive Pass Interference on the play when Anthony Hitchens seemed to run through Brandon Pettigrew and that is Barry Church who was playing FOR the Dallas Cowboys.


Was it the correct decision? Most would have called DPI, but there was some suggestion that the call could have gone either way although Dean Blandino, the NFL VP of Officiating said the flag should not have been picked up once the call had been made. It probably hasn't made the Detroit Lions fans feel much better that there should have been an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty on Dez Bryant for entering the field of play without his helmet on or the fact that it was later announced that the Cowboys had gotten away with a holding call on the critical 4th Down and 6 play they converted on their winning Touchdown drive, a penalty that likely sees them punt the ball away on their own half of the field while down by three points.


But did the 'phantom flag' call really prevent Detroit winning the game? I think the calls were terrible towards the end of the game and hurt the Lions, but I also think the footballing gods were disgusted with the decision of Jim Caldwell to not go for the 4th and 1 his team had been left with after the flag for DPI had been picked up.

The Lions had run the ball well and the Dallas Defense wasn't exactly one that Detroit should have been fearing at that point. It has been often said you should play to win, not to avoid a loss, but Caldwell ignored that and it seemed to all go downhill for the Lions following his decision to try and draw Dallas offside and eventually taking the delay of game.

The shanked punt that went around ten yards gave Dallas the short field and the missed holding call on Ndamukong Suh helped sustain the drive when the Cowboys may have punted, but all credit to Tony Romo for leading the comeback.

Detroit still had a chance to win the game with over two minutes remaining and with two timeouts plus the two minute warning, but Dallas' Defense stiffened at just the right time even after DeMarcus Lawrence recovered a fumble which he subsequently fumbled back to Detroit. Lawrence made up for that with the game winning Sack though and I don't think the one controversial call of picking up the flag genuinely changed the whole outcome of events.

Of course Lions fans will tell me that they could have scored the Touchdown to move up by 10 points if their own drive had been sustained by the penalties that should have been called, but Detroit had scored 6 points in two quarters and I don't think it is a given that they wouldn't have settled for another Field Goal. Tony Romo was clutch down the stretch and I would have backed him to lead the Cowboys to a winning Touchdown at that point.


The Arizona game at Carolina and the Cincinnati game at Indianapolis were both won by the favoured team, although both games were far closer than they should have been. Andy Dalton will have all the pressure on his shoulders to win a Play Off game next season for the Bengals, as will Marvin Lewis, while Ryan Lindley won't start another NFL game in my opinion.

One thing that did interest me was hearing Kurt Warner mention that he would have listened to a call from the Cardinals very seriously if they had asked him to return at Quarter Back. I had said the Cardinals could do worse than reach out to him if he is still healthy, but Warner never felt he was seriously asked and that it was rather mentioned in jest and so it never happened.


The biggest surprise of the Wild Card Round was the Baltimore Ravens win at the Pittsburgh Steelers, but perhaps I should have taken Le'Veon's Bell absence more into account than I did. I still thought Ben Roethlisberger would punish the Baltimore Secondary, but the Ravens had a huge performance and I also forgot how well Joe Flacco can play in these critical Play Off games, especially on the road.


Flacco has another chance to prove his credentials this week with the Ravens travelling to New England and it does look like 3 of the 4 Divisional Round games are going to make for fascinating viewing.

The one I am least intrigued about is the Carolina Panthers going to the Seattle Seahawks, but the other three games look brilliant on paper and I hope they produce the fireworks that the Wild Card Round was lacking for the most part.


Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens are familiar foes against one another in the Play Offs and this looks to be another battle between these two franchises that don't always see eye to eye. This will be the fourth time in the last six seasons that these teams have met in the Play Offs and it figures to be a competitive game.

Neither team is going to be able to run the ball effectively in this one against Defensive Lines that have been very good against that aspect of an opposition Offense through the course of the season. I would still expect both teams to try and stick with the game plan and probably look for a few different ways to get the team moving on the ground by using the end-around play through the likes of Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman and Jacoby Jones.

Also expect Tom Brady and Joe Flacco to get the ball out of their hands quickly for Wide Receiver screen plays in a bid to open up the running lanes, but both New England and Baltimore will try and continue keeping the Defenses honest by pounding the ball with LeGarrette Blount and Justin Forsett.

Both Quarter Backs will take their shots downfield too, particularly Joe Flacco, which means the pass rush and the Offensive Line play is going to be vitally important. That is an area the Baltimore Ravens feel they can have success with Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and Pernell McPhee all able to get plenty of pressure on Quarter Backs and Tom Brady is unlikely to be any different.

It is the one way that has been proven to slow down Brady in the past- no Quarter Back loves to play with pressure all around them and the pocket collapsing, but a few hits on Brady can also see him begin to feel 'ghost pressure'. That is when you see Brady ducking for cover when the pressure isn't really near him and getting him to do that will mean the Baltimore Ravens should have a great chance to cause the upset.

On the other hand, the Baltimore Offensive Line, which should also receive a boost from Eugene Monroe's return, has protected Flacco very well and given him time to find his Receivers downfield. Throwing against this New England Secondary will be tough, but Brandon Browner is something of a penalty giving machine at Corner Back and there can be success for the Ravens hitting deep down the field. Owen Daniels is a nice safety blanket for Flacco whose importance to the team has improved and Baltimore can score enough points to keep this close and perhaps win outright.

You'd still expect Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell have their successes against this Baltimore Secondary that is missing so many players, but I am leaning towards the Ravens to cover.

I hate the fact that every 'expert' is talking about Baltimore having New England's number after going 3-0 against the spread in their last 3 Play Off games against the Patriots. That means Baltimore are going to be a well backed team and Tom Brady loves proving the doubters wrong when everyone is talking about his opponents.

However, there are some trends that favour Baltimore who have been very strong coming off a win over a Divisional rival, going 8-2 against the spread in their next game in that situation. Add in the fact that the Number 1 Seed in the AFC is just 4-5 straight up in this Round and are just 9-15 against the spread over the last 24 seasons, plus the New England Patriots being just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 home Play Off games, and the Ravens become even more appealing with a lot of points to start off.

The last trend shows that teams winning on the road in the Wild Card Round are 11-3 against the spread in the Divisional Round and even all the 'experts' backing Baltimore is not enough for me to ignore the very competitive looking Ravens in this game.


Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The least competitive looking Play Off game of the weekend also features the one with the widest spread as the Carolina Panthers visit the Seattle Seahawks in the late Saturday game.

The teams may be a mirror of one another, but there are some key elements ahead of this game that could make all the difference in which team comes through. Everything is pointing to the Seattle Seahawks to win this game by a wide margin beginning with the injury that Cam Newton suffered at the end of the win over the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs.

If Newton's ankle is not up to par, the Quarter Back is not going to be effective running the ball and taking away that element is only going to make it that much tougher for Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers to establish the run. That is Carolina's first point of call and they have been running the ball up and down the field against teams over the last five weeks, but now face the Seattle Seahawks who have the second best rushing Defense in the NFL.

They have only improved in each passing week and the Seahawks will feel it is a win every time they can keep Carolina in 3rd and 5 or longer situations. The pass rush has been finding a way home without taking away too many men from coverage in obvious passing downs and Newton was not accurate enough last week to suggest he can keep the Panthers moving the chains consistently against the Legion of Boom.

Seattle should be much better running the ball in this game through Marshawn Lynch and the ability Russell Wilson has to get out of the pocket and take off for gains on the ground. While Carolina have limited teams to 107 yards per game on the season, this team is still giving up 4.4 yards per carry and now their Defensive Line is missing Star Lotulelei who is a huge body that will be difficult to replace.

Add the fact that Max Unger returns to the Seattle Offensive Line at Center and Lynch and Co should be able to wear down the Defensive front and get the Seahawks into third and manageable situations. That should negate an improved pass rush that the Panthers have displayed in the continued absence of Greg Hardy and should also mean the play-action should open up plenty of passing lanes for Russell Wilson when he decides to take shots downfield.

Unlike the Baltimore game at New England, I am actually favouring the team that all the 'experts' seem to think will struggle this week- a lot of people have spoken of Carolina's ability to run the ball and how they will have a chance for an upset in Seattle, but I think key injuries is actually sending the edge in favour of the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Those Number 1 Seeds are 0-4 against the spread in the last four seasons in this Conference, but favourites of 10 plus points in this Round are actually 15-11-1 against the spread. People have also spoken about how close Carolina have played Seattle in recent games with the last three decided by a combined 13 points, but all of those were on the East Coast and the Panthers have lost by 17 and 20 points in their last two games in Seattle.

Carolina have been very strong in revenging losses to teams in recent seasons, going 11-2 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons, but Newton being banged up and the absence of Star Lotulelei are huge blows to their team. Seattle are also a very strong home favourite to back and I will look for them to snap the NFC's Number 1 Seed struggles against the spread in recent seasons.

It will likely be a close game for a while with both teams pounding the ball, but look for Seattle to wear down Carolina and eventually come through with a big win.


Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The game of the weekend is going to begin with images of the 'Ice Bowl', the last time the Dallas Cowboys visited the Green Bay Packers in the Play Offs, and the temperature at Lambeau Field is going to be very cold, if not quite as cold as that. The frozen tundra is going to put together two teams that are unbeaten at home/on the road respectively and this looks like being a barnstormer.

Both Offenses are definitely going to be the strength in this game and there is every chance this develops into a shoot-out as long as the wind is not overbearing. The snow would be less of a concern for both Quarter Backs, especially with the running games that both teams have begun to put together over the last few weeks.

Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray might be the names on the fans lips rather than Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo, at least early in the game when both Green Bay and Dallas look to establish their ground Offense. The Detroit Lions showed the Packers that it is possible to run against the Cowboys Defense, especially as the likes of Jeremy Mincey and Roland McClain are both banged up and questionable, and Lacy could have a big game on the ground.

On the other hand, DeMarco Murray's Offensive Line has ripped open holes and will have a much easier time establishing the run than they did against the Detroit Lions considering Green Bay give up 4.3 yards per carry. The Packers have been stronger the last few games, but they haven't faced a team even close to what Dallas' Offensive Line can do and Murray will be there to extend drives and keep Rodgers cooled off on the sidelines.

The Packers have the Offense that can generate quick-strike Touchdowns and Rodgers will feel Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will win their battles with Brandon Carr and Orlando Scandrick when he does decide to throw. The Green Bay Offensive Line has protected Rodgers very well and that has seen the Quarter Back go the whole season without throwing an Interception at home and the Cowboys just haven't got the pass rush that will consistently get to Rodgers.

I should say normally I wouldn't expect them to get to Rodgers- he has actually been suffering with a calf injury which could limit his movement and that might mean more of Lacy and shorter passes than scrambling for time to hit his Receivers deep down the field.

With Murray likely running effectively, Tony Romo will feel he can match what Rodgers produces with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley all solid Receiving targets. Mistakes could be critical in a game where both teams should have a lot of Offensive yardage, but the issue of the calf has to be a concern for Green Bay fans.

Going against the Packers at Lambeau Field has not been much fun and they are 15-9 against the spread over the last three seasons here, but I like Dallas with the points. The sharps have backed the Cowboys heavily since the lines were released and so it has come down to 5.5 points, and looks to be heading further south, but I still like Dallas with these points in hand.

Murray can wear down the Packers and that should open things up for Romo, while also extending drives and keeping Rodgers standing in the cold of Wisconsin for long periods. Dallas have also gone 7-1 against the spread on the road this season and they are 14-6 against the spread as the underdog over the last three seasons.

Rested teams are just 12-20 against the spread in this Play Off Round over the last eight years and Green Bay have lost their last 2 home Play Off games outright. There is enough Offense in the Cowboys team to keep this competitive, while Aaron Rodgers is still dealing with that calf issue which may limit his effectiveness, even just enough to keep Dallas within the number.


Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Pick: All of the headlines will be about Peyton Manning versus Andrew Luck in the Play Offs for the first time, but the latter is a smart man from Stanford who knows there is so much more than just a battle between the Quarter Backs who don't get on the field at the same time.

Luck would have been excited to see Dan Herron running the ball effectively against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but the two fumbles were poor mechanics from the Running Back. He was holding the ball away from the body and the Denver Broncos have quick players on their Defensive Line that won't hesitate trying to knock the ball out of his hands.

Even if Herron avoids those mistakes, the Indianapolis Colts won't have a lot of room to establish the run which means this game is likely to be very much on Andrew Luck's arm and that hasn't always been a positive against 'good' teams. Indianapolis have lost to the Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys this season and much of that is because Luck pushes himself too hard to stay in games with limited support.

TY Hilton had a number of drops last week which was another issue and that has plagued the Colts through the season and all of that will make it difficult for them to win this game. Even if they play a relatively clean game, Luck is also throwing against a Secondary that has two stand out Corner Backs in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, while facing a tonne of pressure up front from DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller against this Colts Offensive Line.

The lack of support is something Peyton Manning is not going to be worried about- despite the Quarter Back not playing that well over the last few games, Denver have still been in a position to win games because of some of his supporting cast. CJ Anderson has established a real running game for the Broncos and should have success against this Indianapolis Defense that struggled against Jeremy Hill last week.

Indianapolis can't just load the box because Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are huge threats in the passing game and Manning will be able to hit his targets if kept in third and short by Anderson. The Colts have some pass rush presence, but that won't be an issue if Manning is in short yardage spots with his quick release, even if he has thrown some terrible balls of late which have led to Interceptions.

Those 'ducks' that Manning has been throwing is a concern, but he has been resting for two weeks and could see an improved performance with the running game he can now lean on. Denver also have the better Defense and Indianapolis have struggled against the top teams they have played, while many of those losses have ended in blow outs.

The Colts were blasted by the New England Patriots in this Round last season and they are 1-4 against the spread against Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas in the regular season. Denver haven't been that good in the Play Offs when it comes to covering the number as they are 1-3 against the spread in that spot with Peyton Manning at Quarter Back, but I think the Broncos Defense is better than Indianapolis'.

I also think Manning can make enough plays with his arm to help Denver pull away from the Colts, while he can lean on a running game that is likely to pound the ball effectively more than Andrew Luck and all this will lead to Denver moving into the Championship Round. Those losses to teams with winning records just makes me doubt Indianapolis who have to play a lot cleaner than they did in the win over Cincinnati to make this a close game.

Therefore I will take Denver to cover the points in this one.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 7 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 5.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wild Card: 2-2, + 0.90 Units
Week 17: 5-3, + 2.55 Units
Week 16: 5-6, - 3.55 Units
Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 72-78-2, - 12 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units