College Football Picks- Playoff Semi Final 2025 (Thursday 9th January-Friday 10th January)

The new College Football Playoff format is going to be changed and evolved in the coming years and those involved will be keeping a close eye on the development of the Bracket this year.

No one wants to make sweeping statements after one sample of games, but the fact that all four First Round winners were able to beat higher Ranked opponents in the Quarter Final will have been noted.

Of course a couple of the lower Seeded teams were better than those that earned Byes through to the Quarter Final, but it won't be lost on many that none of the Conference Champions are going earn a chance of becoming National Champions. The long layoff between games for those earning the Bye into the Quarter Final was a concern before the games were played and you have to think that the organisers will want to make sure that is not a trend going forward.

In saying that, both Semi Final games should be a good one and there will still be a deserving National Champion crowned when all is said and done.

Right now it is very hard to look past the Ohio State Buckeyes who look intent on making up for an underachieving regular season, but the other three teams left standing will all be extremely confident on winning the Championship too.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It is best to not read too much into the first edition of the twelve team College Football Playoff, but it has been noted that the four First Round winners all came through their Quarter Final games to earn places in the final four.

Perhaps in the future the four teams earning the Bye will have guaranteed home field advantage to make up for the time spent away from competitive action, but that is a matter for another day.

Teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) could not, and should not, care less with the chance of winning a National Championship now coming over the horizon.

Both schools have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them as Penn State look for a first National Championship since 1986 and Notre Dame the first since 1988. Out of the two, the Fighting Irish have a lot more recent experience of playing in the College Football Playoff, but that is not going to count for a lot in this Semi Final.

The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers out of the Big Ten before upsetting the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs, but will note that there is room for improvement. Notre Dame were not very comfortable Offensively in the win over the Bulldogs and were perhaps fortunate that Georgia were without starting Quarter Back Carson Beck, who might have helped that Quarter Final become a lot more competitive than it was at the end.

Next up is the Penn State Nittany Lions who beat the SMU Mustangs and then covered as a big favourite in the victory over the Boise State Broncos. Head Coach James Franklin will have something to build upon thanks to this Semi Final run, but he will also be very aware that Penn State could not have asked for a better portion of the Bracket and this is a huge step up for the Nittany Lions, who were beaten by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.

Much like Notre Dame, Penn State will be very pleased with the efforts of the Defensive unit in their two Playoff wins, but may feel there is still more to come from Quarter Back Drew Allar and the rest of the Offense.

Unsuprisingly the Line of Scrimmage is going to play a huge factor in this game on both sides of the ball.

Running the ball against this Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been challenging for teams all season and they were able to shut down the Bulldogs in the Quarter Final. Doing the same against the Nittany Lions will be tougher considering the experience of the Quarter Back, which was missing against Georgia and allowed Notre Dame to dare the SEC Champions to beat them through the air.

Someone like Drew Allar is capable of making plays against this Secondary, although running the ball is also important to establish the balance and just offer Penn State's Offensive Line a little less time to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. The long Allar has to hold the ball to allow routes to develop down the field, the better for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who will feel any under pressure Quarter Back could be picked off by the Defensive Backs.

Extra possessions could be crucial in a Semi Final like this one and avoiding turnovers is going to be important for Drew Allar and Fighting Irish Quarter Back Riley Leonard.

Good news for the Fighting Irish is that Jerimiyah Love looks like he will be ready to go after some early doubts about the big time Running Back. There is little doubt that Love and Riley Leonard will be needed to help Notre Dame try and establish the run against a very good Penn State Defensive Line, one that is expected to have standout Abdul Carter available to play.

Ashton Jeanty was able to pick up 104 yards on the ground against Penn State in the Quarter Final, but it took thirty carries to do that and that just underlines how good the Nittany Lions have been up front.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back may aid Notre Dame, but they are going to have to be patient and try and wear down the Nittany Lions through the course of the Semi Final. It may also be a situation where Riley Leonard has to try and exploit the one or two holes that have existed in the Penn State Secondary and see if the pass can help open the running lanes.

Riley Leonard did not have a good game against the Georgia Bulldogs so may feel he has something to prove with his arm having thrown for just 90 yards in the Quarter Final win. He did avoid turnovers though and it is going to be a game that may end up being a field position battle where the team that plays the cleaner game is able to win.

The layers are finding it tough to separate Penn State and Notre Dame and the same can be said here.

Instead, it may just be the best option to focus on the Defensive units and expect them to come out on top.

College Football rules can make backing the under a bit more difficult- Overtime rules can see the points really rack up, and this is a game that is likely going to be close enough to potentially need an extra bit of time to find a way to separate them.

However, you have to believe both teams are going to grind this one out at times and that could see the clock run quicker than in other games. Both will look to pound the rock and open up the pass, but the Quarter Backs may not be tasked with trying to do too much when they step back to throw the ball in order to avoid turnovers.

Both the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have shown how good their Defensive units can be this season and a tight, competitive Semi Final is expected.

Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Losing to the Michigan Wolverines cost the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and put Head Coach Ryan Day firmly on the hot seat. Failing to beat their old rival again would have hurt the fans, but the fact the Buckeyes had lost to a Wolverines team in disarray this season really placed the pressure on the Head Coach.

Ultimately you are going to be judged by titles when you are the Head Coach of a school like Ohio State and the Buckeyes felt like an underperforming team with their 10-2 record to conclude the regular season.

Things have certainly changed in the Playoff though.

Missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game ended any chance of earning a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the Buckeyes have been able to turn their momentum right around. Blowing out the Tennessee Volunteers at home was impressive, but there is no doubt that the best performance in the Quarter Final Round came from Ohio State who crushed the Oregon Ducks, the Number 1 Seed and Big Ten Champion.

This is going to feel like a road game for the Buckeyes, no matter how the fans are known to travel, and that is because it is being played in Dallas.

Against the Texas Longhorns (13-2).

Losing the SEC Championship Game meant the Longhorns have also been forced to win two games to earn their spot in the Semi Final of the 2024 Playoff. They were comfortable winners against ACC Champions Clemson Tigers, but Texas made really hard work of beating the Big 12 Champions Arizona State Sun Devils and it feels like the Longhorns have a lot more to prove.

Quinn Ewers will earn the start at Quarter Back, but the fans are hoping there will be a big package in place for Archie Manning, who is seen as a much more effective runner and a confident passer. There will be plenty of motivation within Ewers though and that is because he actually originally signed up to play for Ohio State before transferring to Texas.

The Longhorns may need their Quarter Back to be at his absolute best against this tough Buckeyes Defense and that is all down to the strength of the Ohio State Defensive Line. It has been so tough to run against them all season, but the Texas Offensive Line have not been playing that well down the stretch and that will offer little encouragement for them.

Making the Longhorns a little one-dimensional will be seen as a big win for the Ohio State Buckeyes and will ramp up the pressure on Quinn Ewers.

The Quarter Back is obviously going to be confident in his own ability, but Texas' Offensive Line may struggle to keep the Buckeyes out of the backfield if Ewers is stuck in third and long spots on the field. A talented Ohio State Secondary have benefited from the pressure that the pass rush have generated and they will certainly believe they can stall drives and potentially pick off an errant pass or two.

This is going to be a prove it kind of game for Quinn Ewers and he will try and boost himself through the personal motivation of playing against his old team for the first time.

Ohio State's Quarter Back is also firing himself up through personal experiences and Will Howard is well aware of the Texas Longhorns having transferred to Ohio State after several years facing Texas in the Big 12. Will Howard has never beaten Texas (0-4), but it also fair to say that the Quarter Back was not throwing to the kind of talented Receivers at Kansas State as he is with Ohio State.

Unlike the Longhorns, the Buckeyes Offensive Line may have a lot more success running the ball and that is key to helping Will Howard and the passing game to really attack the Longhorns down the field. That Offensive Line has also been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, which is all the easier if you are playing in front of the chains and giving Will Howard a clean pocket would give Ohio State a big edge.

Take nothing away from the season that Texas have put together and the level of play that the Secondary have found, but their most recent games have been more difficult when it comes to stopping the pass. Will Howard can connect with the likes of Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith against the Longhorns Secondary and they can certainly pick up from where they left off against the Oregon Ducks as a team.

Ohio State look a big more battle hardened for a Semi Final of this magnitude and the team look to have got things figured out in time for the chance to win another National Championship.

Beating the Texas Longhorns will be far from easy, especially in Dallas, but the Buckeyes might have the more balanced Offensive game-plan and the stronger play at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes Secondary might be operating at a higher level than their counterparts with the Longhorns and it all may just end up leading to another big win for Ohio State to move into the National Championship Game to be played later this month.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Under 45.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

PlayOff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NFL Week 18 Picks 2022 (January 8-9)

It has been a long time since the NFL has made significant changes to the regular season schedule, but the 2021 season has added the seventeenth game.

Instead of Wild Card Weekend, it means we have one more round of regular season games to be played before the PlayOffs and it has largely come down to the final week as the NFL would have liked. While eleven of the fourteen post-season teams are now known, the top Seed in the AFC and some Divisional titles are still up for grabs and it means there are some important games on the schedule.

However, it is the final week of the regular season and you have to be aware that teams may not play their starters as they would if these games were played several weeks ago. For teams like the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, not much can change in Week 18 and so you have to keep an ear out on the kind of approach the Head Coaches will take.

The season has been a little up and down for the NFL Picks, but I am looking for one more strong week which will give me some momentum to take into the PlayOffs. A rough middle patch looks to be behind me, but Week 18 is not the one where I want to take too many risks with so much uncertainty about and even more so with players moving on and off the Covid lists.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: The loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 may prove to be a costly one for the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) when it comes to finishing up with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. However, they still have a chance of earning that spot and the only Bye in the Conference through to the Divisional Round and they can heap the pressure on the Tennessee Titans by winning this Week 18 game on Saturday.

They are heading to the Denver Broncos (7-9) who have been eliminated from the post-season again after losing three games in a row. It is another season of underachievement for the Broncos, but you should not underestimate the motivation in trying to play spoiler for a Divisional rival.

However, injuries and Covid issues have hurt Denver down the stretch and that is most evident in the Quarter Back position as Drew Lock gets the start in place of Teddy Bridgewater. There is no doubt at all that this is a position that needs to be upgraded if the Denver Broncos are going to challenge for the AFC West title and more, while the players may struggle for motivation if they feel Head Coach Vic Fangio is going to be relieved of his duties on Monday.

This looks like a game in which it is going to be really difficult for Denver to move the ball with any consistency behind this Offense. The team have been inconsistent running the ball and the Quarter Back is not someone you would rely on to make plays, even if Drew Lock has some talented skill players around him.

Drew Lock may have more of a chance if the Broncos are able to run the ball against a Kansas City Defensive Line which has not been able to clamp down on the run as they would like. He will also be throwing into a Secondary that has had a couple of tough outings of late, but Drew Lock is not Justin Herbert nor Joe Burrow and I think the Broncos will find it tough to keep up with the Chiefs if they have their high-scoring boots on.

The frustration for the Denver Broncos organisation and the fans may be the feeling that the Defensive unit is good enough to be a competitive post-season one. Unfortunately they look to be going into Week 18 without some key players on the Defensive unit and that may leave them vulnerable against a Kansas City team that will want to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 which saw them lose the grip of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Kansas City should be able to run the ball, but they do lean on Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back and I do think there will be more spaces for him to exploit than would usually be found against the Denver Secondary. Important players are missing for the Broncos on the backside of the Defensive unit and Mahomes and company will be looking for some momentum to take into what is likely to be a Wild Card battle next weekend.

Patrick Mahomes is expected to get time in the pocket and that could spell major problems for the Broncos and I do think the Chiefs will be able to pull away for a strong win.

Playing at Mile High is a challenge, but the Chiefs have won their last two visits to Denver by 24 and 27 points and they can cover a big mark in this one too.

The Chiefs are now 10-2 against the spread in the last twelve between these Divisional rivals and the road team have been very effective too. Kansas City are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite and I think they can use the defeat in Week 17 to motivate themselves to a strong win as the run towards the Super Bowl begins.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There is no doubting the importance of this game for the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) as they look for the win that will take them through to the PlayOffs. A disappointing home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders means there is all to play for in Week 18 of the regular season and the Colts are facing a Divisional rival who have given them plenty to think about in recent years.

Playing at the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) has been a particularly difficulty for the Colts and it is something that has not been lost on the players. Even then, Indianapolis are a big favourite to win considering the form we have seen from the Jaguars and adding to the mix the importance for the Jaguars to avoid winning and thus securing the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft again.

A new Coaching staff is going to be in place for the 2022 season and Jacksonville were embarrassed in Week 17 when losing by 40 points at the New England Patriots. Trevor Lawrence has struggled and I do think it is hard to trust Jacksonville.

In saying that, I do think the Jaguars have matched up well with the Colts and they will not want to end their season with another heavy loss. Many of the Jacksonville players will be very clear that they could be playing for their future, not only in Florida but around the NFL, and that should see the home team put in one more big effort.

Injuries are not helping Trevor Lawrence and losing James Robinson for the season has made it difficult to run the ball- however, I do think the Colts have struggled at the Defensive Line and it should give the Jaguars a bit more of an opportunity to get in front of the chains and thus make it a little easier for Lawrence to make some plays.

That should also mean Trevor Lawrence has a bit more time in the pocket to attack the Colts Secondary and I think the Jaguars can move the ball here and at least force their opponent to dig deep for their place in the post-season.

We know what we are going to get from Indianapolis when they have the ball in their own hands and that will mean a lot of Jonathan Taylor pounding the rock towards the PlayOffs. The Patriots crushed Jacksonville on the ground in Week 17 and I think the Colts will follow suit, although it does mean that time will be taken off the clock a little quicker and Indianapolis will not have to rely on Carson Wentz to do more than manage the game at Quarter Back.

Like Trevor Lawrence, Carson Wentz should have time when he steps back to throw and it should be a game that the Indianapolis Colts are able to win.

I just don't see a blow out with the expected effort to come from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last six visits to this part of Florida and they are now just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against Divisional rivals.

Jacksonville do have some terrible trends behind them and have looked very uncompetitive in recent weeks as they look forward to the off-season, but this is a huge number and all of the pressure is on the Indianapolis Colts. Trevor Lawrence has to avoid the mistakes which have plagued him of late, but if the Jaguars can run the ball effectively, they should be able to put their Quarter Back in a good position to at least keep this one close.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 was enough for the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) to once again finish a season as the AFC North Champions as a young team continues to show progression. There is much more to come from the Bengals beyond the 2021 season, but they are going to be hosting a Wild Card PlayOff Game next weekend and so a decision has been made to largely rest starters.

Joe Burrow is sitting at Quarter Back as he looks to refresh physically and mentally and he admitted he would have been good to play in Week 18 if this game was important enough to the Bengals. Instead it is Brandon Allen who will get the call at Quarter Back and there are a number of Bengals who will also be absent on both sides of the ball.

It has seen the spread shift markedly from the opening line and it is the Cleveland Browns (7-9) who will be favoured despite finishing with a losing record. Like the Bengals, the Cleveland Browns will be playing with a backup Quarter Back in Case Keenum, although the difference between the teams is that there seems to be less faith in Baker Mayfield going forward than the Cincinnati Bengals have in Joe Burrow.

The Browns can put in a much fuller effort in Week 18 than the Bengals, but they are also going to be missing some key players. However, Nick Chubb should be able to start behind the Offensive Line and I think he can have a lot of success running the ball against a makeshift Cincinnati Defensive Line.

Cincinnati had been struggling to stop the run down the stretch anyway, and I think Nick Chubb can have a much more efficient game in this one than he did in the Week 17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Much of that was down to some poor Coaching decisions and I do worry that the Browns will only disappoint and move away from the obvious play-calls that need to be made.

Case Keenum is a solid enough backup at Quarter Back and I think he will be able to out-duel Brandon Allen and the backup Cincinnati Offensive skill players. The Browns played well Defensively in the loss to the Steelers and they do look like they match up well with the Bengals and have already blown them out on the road.

Trends are hard to use in a game where so many second string players will be used, but the Browns should have the stronger players starting and that can make all the difference. Being at home should also have the fans pushing Cleveland to win and they can do enough to cover this spread against the Bengals, who are focusing on Wild Card Weekend.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: The pressure is on the Tennessee Titans (11-5) to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and thus secure the one and only Bye in the Conference. Three wins in four have put the Titans in a position to secure that top Seed, but they have to win in Week 18 after the Kansas City Chiefs managed to win their last regular season game.

A Divisional game on the road is a tough spot to be in, but the Titans look to be getting healthier down the stretch and Derrick Henry has been activated. He won't be playing in Week 18, but that news is going to give the rest of the team a bounce and there is plenty of motivation on this sideline outside of earning the top Seed.

They were embarrassed by the Houston Texans (4-12) in a home defeat so the Tennessee Titans will be making the journey with revenge on their minds. The Texans had won two in a row to miss out on the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft, but that run was ended in a defeat to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 and Houston is surrounded by uncertainty with rumours that the Head Coach will be moved on at the end of the season.

David Culley has performed above expectations, but he has not always gotten on the same page as the players and it could mean some down tools to make sure the Head Coach is fired on Monday. Playing at home and with their futures in mind means it won't be as clear as you can see in other sports, but this is also a bad match up for the Texans and I expect Tennessee to cover a big spread.

Even without Derrick Henry, Tennessee's Offensive Line has continued to pave the way for some big gains on the ground and the likes of D'Onta Foreman has made an impact. The Titans were very strong on the ground last week in the crushing of the Miami Dolphins and I expect them to be able to establish the run in this game against a vulnerable Houston Defensive Line.

Ryan Tannehill has also improved his play with AJ Brown back at Receiver and I think the run will set up the play-action for the Quarter Back. He should have a bit more time to let routes develop down the field and Ryan Tannehill can hurt a Houston Secondary which has given up some big plays and the Titans can win this game as long as the Quarter Back can avoid some of the mistakes he is capable of making.

Moving the ball is going to be a much tougher challenge for the Houston Texans despite the improved play of Davis Mills and the Offensive unit down the stretch. However, this does not look like a good match up for the Texans who will struggle to run the ball and leave Mills in third and long spots behind an Offensive Line which has been hit hard by injury.

Davis Mills played well against the Jaguars, but I think the Quarter Back will have issues if the Texans are not able to run the ball. The Titans Secondary may be the best one he has played for a while and I think they revenge factor will make sure Tennessee play hard enough to force drives to stall and help the team pull clear for a good looking win.

The Titans do have a poor record covering in Houston, which is a major concern, but they are 4-1 against the spread when facing Divisional opponents. I am not always convinced about Tennessee when it comes to covering big spreads because of the nature of the Offensive game-plan, but I think this is a game in which the Defensive unit can set the team up in strong field position.

With the Texans perhaps not as focused as they would normally be with the rumours surrounding Coaching changes, I think the Titans will come through with a cover and earn the Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The top Seed in the NFC has been locked up by the Green Bay Packers (13-3) and that means the team will be receiving a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs. That makes this Week 18 game a little uncertain as to the approach that the Packers will take with their starters, although the feeling is that previous seasons have shown they need to keep their Offensive unit in sync with one another.

Resting the starters will mean the Packers may not have a meaningful snap until the Divisional Round Game in two weeks time and would mean three weeks between snaps for the starters. Aaron Rodgers has made it clear he wants to play for the Packers in this final regular season game as they head to the Detroit Lions (2-13-1) who could still end the season with the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

A blow out loss to the Seattle Seahawks means the Lions could finish with the top Pick if they lose and the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts. That still feels like a long shot and Head Coach Dan Campbell has largely has had his Detroit team playing much harder than the record would suggest.

I think the Lions will be a lot better in Week 18 and they could have Jared Goff back at Quarter Back, although the lean may be that Tim Boyle gets another shot behind Center. Injuries on the Offensive Line have made it a little tougher for the Lions to move the ball on the ground, although they should have more success against the Packers Defensive Line.

Moving the team into third and manageable spots is hugely important for the Lions if they are going to earn the upset- it will give the Quarter Back a chance to make plays down the field, even though Detroit have lost some skill players for the final game of the regular season and some players will already be looking ahead to the off-seson.

Dan Campbell is likely to take more risks than normal in this game, but the key to the outcome is how long the Green Bay Packers stick with their starters- it is the hardest factor to place an importance on in Week 18, although the feeling is that Aaron Rodgers and company could go until the Third or Fourth Quarter.

If they are playing, Green Bay should have considerable success with the Offensive Line potentially bolstered in Week 18. I think that could be important for Green Bay to build some chemistry at a point where they are going to need the Offensive Line in a couple of weeks time.

Running the ball is so important when it comes to January Football and especially in a place like Green Bay and AJ Dillon can have a strong showing. Aaron Jones is expected to sit out, but Dillon should be able to pound the rock with real success and it should mean Aaron Rodgers is largely protected at Quarter Back and able to finish the regular season with the kind of flourish that will make him favourite for MVP.

It is a tough game to handicap with the uncertainty around the Green Bay Packers, but the Dallas Cowboys showed teams may want to finish with real momentum. They also had little to play for, but the Cowboys don't have the luxury of having next weekend off and I think that is key for the Packers to keep their starters out there.

The Packers have not covered in their last four in Detroit, which is surprising, but they are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten against NFC opponents.

Detroit have been a really good underdog to back this season under Dan Campbell and they will not be as bad as they were in Week 17, but the Green Bay Packers may have enough Offensive firepower to pull clear and hold on when pulling the starters.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first team to ever win and lose seven straight games in the same NFL season suffered another defeat in Week 17 and this is a fatal one as far as the PlayOffs go. The Miami Dolphins (8-8) were blown out at the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 and that has eliminated them from post-season discussion before the final regular season game has been played.

It is much different for the New England Patriots (10-6) who have secured a spot in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs next weekend, but can still win the AFC East if the Buffalo Bills fail to beat the New York Jets. That looks a long shot in reality and the Patriots could very easily decide that they don't want to risk starters if they hear the chances of winning the Division are all but over at half time.

Bill Belichick can be a Head Coach that looks to keep starters fresh with the PlayOffs in mind so that is something to consider in this game. I also find it very difficult to ignore how difficult New England have found playing Divisional games in Miami and at this time of the year the change in temperature has to be felt much more than normal.

Of course you do have to wonder about the Miami motivation having seen PlayOff hopes turn to dust in Week 17 when the minimum expectation may have been to have a chance in the final game of the regular season. Brian Flores can secure back to back winning seasons for the Dolphins, even if they have failed to reach the post-season under this Head Coach, and it may see Miami keep hold of his services despite some reports linking them with a potential move for Jim Harbaugh.

The Dolphins do not match up that well with the New England Patriots on the Offensive side of the ball, but the feeling is they could find themselves playing against backups at some point in this game. The Patriots are rocky when it comes to stopping the run, but the Miami Offensive Line has largely been called on to protect Tua Tagovailoa with the inconsistent Running Backs at the team.

Relying on the inconsistent Tagovailoa has worked at times, but it is also the main reason the Miami Dolphins have not been able to push into the post-season and I would not be surprised if this position is upgraded in the off-season. I would not be that confident in Tua Tagovailoa, but I think he could see the New England Secondary bring in some backups and that should give the Dolphins a better chance to move the chains.

They will have to ride out some difficult moments while the Patriots are fully focused on the game though and that is because New England are built for PlayOff Football with an Offensive Line that loves to plough the road for the run. After Week 17, Miami's Defensive Line may have something to prove against the run, but I would expect the Patriots to have some early successes while they are looking focused.

However, you have to again suggest that the Patriots are likely to be pulling starters and that could just aid Miami to stay in the game. If they can clamp down on the run, Miami will feel they have the Secondary to slow down the Patriots anyway and I think this is a big spread for the road team to cover, no matter how much they 'need' to win.

New England are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games in Miami, while the Dolphins are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven as the home underdog. I think the Dolphins can keep this one close with a chance to finish with a winning season and Brian Flores is going to want his players to at least redeem themselves for an awful showing in Week 17 which proved so costly.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The AFC East Division is up for grabs in Week 18 and the Buffalo Bills (10-6) will end up Champions in consecutive seasons for the first time in almost thirty years if they can win this game. The Bills are huge favourites to do that and they look to be facing the New York Jets (4-12) at the right time with the Jets struggling through illness and injury.

Winning should not be an issue for the Bills, despite the fact they have been beaten to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier this season, but covering this huge number is a different kind of challenge. They should be focused as Buffalo try and secure a top four Seed which will mean at least hosting one PlayOff game this month and possibly even two if they can climb into the top three.

That is for another day and the focus has to be for the Bills to make sure there are no slip ups here- Josh Allen is looking like he is peaking towards a strong ending and I think that is very important for Buffalo, although the fans would love to see more consistency out of the running game. They will have more success in this one, but Buffalo like keeping the ball in the hands of Josh Allen, instead of the Running Backs, and that is something that could hold them back this January.

In this game Buffalo won't really be hurt by that and I expect them to be moving the ball very efficiently as they did when blowing out the Jets on the road. Josh Allen won't just be a threat with his legs, but he has almost a full complement of Receivers to target down the field and I expect the Bills to pile up some big yards and points over the course of the four Quarters.

Zach Wilson did not play for the New York Jets in the first meeting between these AFC East rivals, but the rookie has had a tough season and could be without key players throughout the Offensive unit. He is facing a tough Defensive minded Head Coach in Sean McDermott and I do think the Jets will have issues moving the ball with any consistency, even if there have been one or two flashes from Wilson at Quarter Back.

It has been possible for teams to run the ball against the Bills Defensive Line and that may give the New York Jets a chance to keep this one close, as long as they are in the game on the scoreboard. However, Zach Wilson has to play a clean game, as does the rest of the team, and getting behind the chains could see the Bills pass rush dominate the game.

Throwing into the Buffalo Secondary is a huge test for any Quarter Back and especially one as inexperienced as Zach Wilson and I think that will show up here.

The underdog has been a very good team to back in this Divisional rivalry, but I think the New York Jets may not have the intensity to show off their teeth in this Week 18 game.

New York are just 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen when set as the underdog, while Buffalo have begun to dominate their AFC East rivals. I think that will be the case here too and I believe they can do enough to cover a very big line.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 70-66-1, - 4.32 Units (274 Units Staked, - 1.58% Yield)

NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 9-10)

All credit has to be given to the NFL who have not only completed the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but have managed to do that without cancelling a single game.

It wasn't all plain-sailing with some Covid-19 outbreaks meaning the schedule had to be shifted around, while the Denver Broncos had to play one game with a Wide Receiver at Quarter Back after the entire QB unit was either testing positive or being in close contact with someone who had.

While I praise the NFL and the protocols they have placed, I do think this is not the time to allow complacency to set in- the NFL PlayOffs could be compromised if we have another Denver situation, while schedule changes are much more difficult with the post-season played over the next three weeks; ultimately a team will suffer if they are forced to win games midweek and then play another top NFL team days later in the Divisional Round or Championship Game.

That is something that is difficult to factor in, but Aaron Rodgers made the best comment to his Green Bay team-mates leaving for a mini-break and that was simply be responsible, look after yourselves and 'don't get Covid'.

We are now down to the final fourteen teams in the 2020 NFL season and the new PlayOff format means only the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will be enjoying a Bye over Super Wild Card Weekend. I think that is a real edge for those teams as they bid to reach the Super Bowl with home field advantage through the PlayOffs, although an upset is never that far away at this time of the season.

With the odds being released for Wild Card Weekend there will need to be some major upsets to prevent the top teams from making it through to the Divisional Round next weekend. My personal Ranking of the teams left in the PlayOffs has the likes of the Packers, Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills as those most likely to win the Super Bowl, although they are not that much further clear of the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe it will be an easy path for any of the teams looking to play into next month.

It should be a really fun weekend with the extra couple of games expanding the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and there are some good games coming up. You can read my Picks below from the Saturday and Sunday offerings.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL PlayOffs are essentially a 'new season' and that is what all fourteen teams playing in the post-season will be feeling as the new Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs begin on Saturday. This looks like one of the better games on deck as the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts and snap their long wait for a PlayOff win which stretches back twenty-six years.

There is going to be a pressure on the Bills with that long run without a PlayOff win hanging over their heads, but Josh Allen and the rest of the team have really shown another improvement on their 2019 form. The Quarter Back in particular has impressed, but Allen will know that he is going to be judged on how he plays in the post-season and whether he can show growth from last year when the Bills were beaten by the Houston Texans.

The Bills blew a big lead in that loss to the Texans and they were eventually undone in Overtime, but it was also a game played on the road. Finishing as the Number 2 Seed means the Bills are in control of playing the next two PlayOff Games at home as long as they can win on Wild Card Weekend.

Buffalo have lost their last six PlayOff Games, but the last four have been on the road and this Bills team is giving off a different vibe having won six games in a row going into the PlayOffs. They have shown a huge Offensive output which has helped the Defensive unit close out games, but they won't be taking anything for granted when the Indianapolis Colts come to town having won four of their last five games.

There has to be a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the Colts who needed the Bills beating the Miami Dolphins and then beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 to enter the PlayOffs. There is experience here through Head Coach Frank Reich and Quarter Back Philip Rivers, but the feeling is that the Colts need a bit of luck to break their way if they are going to work their way through the post-season towards the Super Bowl.

Some suggestions have been made that the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Rivers at Quarter Back at the end of this season regardless of how things go in the PlayOffs and some believe they could be in for Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Philip Rivers himself has admitted that he is not sure whether he will play another NFL season after this one comes to an end and the competitor in him will want to go out on a high.

He will be looking to lean on the Indianapolis Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor at Running Back which has been the key for the Colts in getting into the post-season. Taylor had a huge game in Week 17 and the Colts Offensive Line have been able to open up some considerable holes in recent games, while they will be confident in doing that against the Buffalo Defensive Line which has given up almost 5 yards per carry across their last three games.

While the game is close I certainly think the Colts will have success running the ball and that will be key for the underdog who will want to keep the powerful Buffalo Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible in cold conditions. It is very important for Indianapolis to also keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus giving Philip Rivers the best chance to have a big outing at Quarter Back as he looks to help lead the upset.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line has not been as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking and so again it is important for the Colts to stay with the Bills as long as possible. Philip Rivers will want to avoid having to throw too many times into the Buffalo Secondary, which has improved down the stretch compared with their overall season form.

Throwing the ball could be a potential problem for the Colts, but they will also have serious concerns about defending the pass against Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills have seen Josh Allen come on leaps and bounds in 2020 despite a mini-slump during the course of the season, and they have also surrounded the Quarter Back with some huge talents that have helped in the development of the young player.

Josh Allen has found a chemistry with Stefon Diggs, but the likes of John Brown, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis have all shown they can step up for the Bills in the passing game too. Injuries have slowed the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch and the Secondary have given up over 300 yards per game through the air in their last three games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Houston.

I have no doubt that Josh Allen is able to maintain that kind of number against this Secondary as he has helped the Bills average over 350 yards per game through the air down the stretch. Buffalo have not been afraid to come out and throw the ball all over the field to put the pressure on their opponents and I think it will be difficult for the Colts to slow them down, especially with the Buffalo Offensive Line likely able to give Allen some time.

The Colts have been able to bring the pass rush pressure, but Buffalo will feel their Offensive Line can keep the pocket clean enough. Add in Josh Allen's ability to scramble around and move the ball with his legs and I do think Buffalo will be confident the passing lanes will open up for them on the Offensive side of the ball.

In recent games Buffalo also found a groove when it came to running the ball, but the Colts Defensive Line have been stout up front. The Quarter Back's ability to reach First Down markers with his legs may make it a touch more difficult for Indianapolis on the ground, while any Secondary struggles will also open the running lanes as players are sent into coverage to slow the Bills down through the air.

I've really liked the Indianapolis Colts this season and how they have been built, but I do think there have been some signs that they have been worn down over a long season. Philip Rivers was once a top Quarter Back, but I am not sure he will be able to compete in a shoot out with the younger and fresher Josh Allen who looks to have found a really good rhythm at Quarter Back.

It might be tense at times, which is down to the long absence of winning a PlayOff Game, but I think Buffalo will find the big plays in the passing game which will force Indianapolis to take to the air to keep up. Ultimately I am not sure Rivers can do that at this stage of his career and I like the Buffalo Bills to continue their strong covering ability, the mark of a very good team.

Buffalo are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite and they have covered the spread in their last eight games down the stretch. I do have to admit I really admire Frank Reich and the Head Coach does have the Colts playing competitively, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog.

The Colts are not used to being the underdog and so they may use that as motivation to 'show their critics' but I think there is too much Buffalo Offensive firepower which leads to a win by a Touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In Week 17 the Los Angeles Rams were able to end the season for one of their NFC West rivals and they will be looking to do the same on Super Wild Card Weekend when travelling to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams shared out a win apiece in the regular season, but the Seahawks have got home field advantage having ended the year with the Number 3 Seed and with positive injury news meaning they could be going into the post-season at full strength.

There was also better news for the Los Angeles Rams this week as it looks like Jared Goff is on course to return at Quarter Back for the road team. The Rams have reached the Super Bowl with Goff at Quarter Back before and his return means John Wolford will return to a backup role for Los Angeles despite leading the win over the Cardinals in Week 17.

John Wolford was massively helped by the Defensive unit, while Jared Goff will likely need the same level of support as the Rams have struggled Offensively for some weeks. The Quarter Back will be making his return against the Seattle Seahawks who he was facing when he fractured his thumb, but I do think the Los Angeles Rams will be comfortable with their chances in the PlayOffs.

The Rams had lost two in a row before finishing the regular season with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a feeling that they can have considerably more Offensive success against this Seattle Defense than they did when they met last month. On that occasion Los Angeles were only able to muster up 9 points, but both teams struggled to move the ball with consistency so there is going to be some pressure on Jared Goff if he does get rewarded with the start.

Most will be interested to see who Sean McVay picks as his starting Quarter Back, but there are a couple of key performers who need to be cleared on this side of the ball. Andrew Whitworth is hoping to be able to play on the Los Angeles Offensive Line and Jamal Adams is adamant he will play for the Seattle Seahawks at Safety and both players are very important for their respective teams.

An improvement in the Seattle Defensive Line's performances against the run have been critical for the Seahawks producing four wins in a row to end the season and clinch the NFC West Division. It has come at an important time as the Seahawks Offense has not really found the groove they had earlier this season and it will be up to Seattle to try and win at the line of scrimmage to take control of this game.

You know Sean McVay will look for ways to get the Rams moving even if the run is stopped and that may be by employing short passes, screens or Wide Receiver screens to try and stay in front of the sticks and give Jared Goff the best chance for success. John Wolford showed off his ability to run the ball last week in the win over the Cardinals and if he starts at Quarter Back it may give the Rams Offense another crease, but I do think Los Angeles will struggle for consistency running the ball as they did when the teams met in this Stadium last month.

The more important question for the Rams has to be whether they can get more from the passing game which was not able to expose the holes that have opened up in the Seattle Secondary all season. There have been some obvious signs of improvement from the Seahawks who tend to be a 'bend, don't break' Defensive unit, but even then you would expect any Quarter Back to have more success than the Rams enjoyed against Seattle in their most recent meeting.

It will be interesting to see if Whitworth is up to speed on the Offensive Line because he will be facing a Seattle pass rush which has come alive in recent weeks. They will be looking to force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball much more quickly than they would like and it will also aid the Secondary in being able to make a few stops in this one.

Stopping the run will be something the Seahawks will feel they can do, but I really think the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is the best of the Lines along the trenches. In recent games Seattle have been able to get Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde going, while Russell Wilson is capable as a runner too, but the Seahawks did not have much success on the ground against the Rams in their last meeting and there is little to suggest they will have a lot more in this one.

However, one positive is that the Seahawks Offensive Line looks like it could be as healthy as it has been in several weeks and that may be good news for Russell Wilson. After opening up with massive MVP credentials, Wilson has come off the boil as his protection has weakened and the game plan has perhaps been adjusted to establish the ground game.

Russell Wilson will need all the protection he can get against this Rams Defensive Line led by Aaron Donald and it is the extended time that may see him find a way to exploit the Rams Secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing at an incredibly high level and will feel he can lock down DK Metcalf again barring the Seahawks moving the big Receiver to different spots in the field where Ramsey may not follow, but Tyler Lockett is a big threat for Seattle.

The Quarter Back situation definitely feels like it is giving the Seahawks and edge and you can't discount a team that has won every home PlayOff Game under Pete Carroll. If Jared Goff was at 100% I do think the Rams could cause problems, but Seattle look to be playing with confidence and momentum and that can roll over into this game.

The home team has won the last five games between these Divisional rivals and Seattle won by 11 points when hosting the Rams last month.

Los Angeles are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Seattle and I do think the Seahawks will be able to get one or two big plays from Russell Wilson which helps them win this game and cover the number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team Pick: Most fans have been pretty down on the NFC East this season and there were plenty out there making it clear that winning the Number 5 Seed in the NFC was effectively going to mean an easy win on Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked that up and they are considered big favourites to beat the Washington Football Team who might have been thankful to Doug Pederson in securing the NFC East Division title in Week 17.

Washington had to win at Philadelphia to win the Division, but the game was very, very competitive going into the Fourth Quarter before Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson decided he would put in what is effectively a third string Quarter Back. Unsurprisingly things went pear shaped for the Eagles from there and the decision drew the ire of the New York Giants who missed out on a PlayOff spot.

Ron Rivera won't care how his team got into the PlayOffs and the Head Coach has shown he can motivate teams to play above their level in one off games before. His 7 win Carolina Panthers team won the NFC South in the 2014 NFL season and that team were able to upset the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals at home in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

There are similarities here as his 7 win Washington team face an 11 win Tampa Bay team on Saturday evening, but Ron Rivera will be reminding his players that every team begins at 0-0 in the PlayOffs. A bigger concern for the Head Coach seems to be getting Quarter Back Alex Smith as healthy as possible and Rivera did admit that he would have loved to have been given one of the Sunday slots this Wild Card Weekend to give his veteran player as much time to recover as possible.

Over the course of the season you would think the Quarter Back would be the best chance for Washington to earn the upset, but down the stretch the Buccaneers Defensive Line did begin to struggle when it comes to stopping the run. The overall numbers remained strong, but the Buccaneers have given up 4.4 yards per carry across their last three games and it is only the points being scored by the Tampa Bay Offense which may have forced opponents to have to move away from the run.

The Football Team will be hoping Antonio Gibson is going to be healthier than he looked last week as he remains the premier Running Back on the roster and it will be important for Washington to run the ball. Controlling the clock is important and it may also benefit Alex Smith who should have success throwing against the Tampa Bay Defense.

It is also important to run the ball to help the Washington Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Alex Smith as it could just slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush for long enough to allow him to make some plays. Last week the Eagles were able to get a lot of pressure on Smith throughout the game which has meant the Quarter Back has been nursing some injuries over the week, but the Football Team may feel they can at least have a touch more consistency behind their Offensive unit.

Scoring enough points to be competitive won't be easy for Washington if Tampa Bay continue to play as they have been with Tom Brady leading the way. The suggestion is that Mike Evans will be ready to go having come out of the Week 17 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and that means Brady will have some talented Receivers to make plays for him.

On the face of things you would think the Buccaneers are able to have considerable success throwing the ball, but the Washington pass Defense has been the strength of the team and the reason they have made the PlayOffs. Much of that is down to the front four who have some extremely talented youngsters leading the way and it will be the pressure on Tom Brady which will be key to slowing down the Buccaneers.

In the past we have seen Tom Brady rattled by teams who can get an intense about of pass rush player with limited numbers rushing him and that is something that fits this Washington Defensive Line to a tee. Chase Young is the headline name, but there is talent across the line and I do think they will be able to at least give the Football Team a chance of the upset.

A lot will come down to that battle as any time being given to Brady will result in his classy Receivers finding spaces to exploit. It is also hard to really believe in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette can establish the run to the point where they slow down the Football Team pass rush and I do think this Defensive Line will be able to keep this game close.

While Tampa Bay have been strong against the spread in the last few weeks, Washington have to be respected having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the underdog.

The Buccaneers are the more likely winners as I am not entirely sure that Washington can score enough points to secure the upset, but Tom Brady is 0-4 against the spread in late primetime slots this season. This is the same slot the Buccaneers have on Saturday night and in the past it is those teams with fearsome Defensive Lines that have been able to give Brady some trouble and I will look for Washington to remain within the number set.

I will expect the Football Team to be highly motivated by the oddsmakers line for this game and that disrespect coupled with their Head Coach's experience of overcoming the odds in the Wild Card Round is important here. Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers actually beat Bruce Arians that season in the Wild Card Round too and I think Rivera may get the better of Arians when it comes to this spread too.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Pick: A five game winning run has helped turn the Baltimore Ravens season around after it looked like they may have missed out on a PlayOff spot at 6-5. There is a confidence that this team is peaking at the right time and they have a chance to earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss to the Tennessee Titans at home last year.

The Titans are back in the post-season, but this time they go in as the AFC South Division Winners and that means they will be hosting at least one PlayOff Game. Last year the Titans managed to reach the AFC Championship Game and led against eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City, while road wins at New England and Baltimore will mean this Titans team has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

What they don't have is a very good Defensive unit and I do think that has to be a major concern for Tennessee entering the PlayOffs this season. You can't expect to beat some of the best teams in the NFL with a team who literally can't stop anyone on the other side of the ball, but the Titans have managed to somehow win 11 games including three of their last four to secure the AFC South.

I do think there is a chance for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to move the ball with some consistency in this big PlayOff Game and I would be disappointed if the Quarter Back is not able to have a big outing. There is some pressure on Jackson which he will acknowledge himself and that is down to losing both PlayOff Games that he has started for the Baltimore Ravens including the upset defeat to Tennessee as a double digit favourite last season.

However this game looks like a good chance for Jackson to have success both with his legs and with his arm- the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams running through them throughout the season, while the Secondary has been exposed by injuries and very little pass rush pressure generated up front.

Lamar Jackson is able to run the ball himself, but he will be well supported by JK Dobbins who has taken over as the main Running Back for the Baltimore Ravens. Both should be able to keep the Ravens in front of the chains and earn some big gains on the ground and that should open the door for the Quarter Back to hit his Receivers Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown down the field for some big plays.

The Ravens should have a very good balance Offensively which makes them very dangerous, but this should be anything but a one-sided game. While Baltimore will expect to dominate behind their Offensive Line, the Titans will also believe they have an Offensive Line which is going to be able to rip open some huge holes for what many may consider to be the best Running Back in the NFL.

Everyone knows that the Titans want to establish Derrick Henry early and often, but that has not made it any easier to stop a Back who has put up over 2000 yards on the ground this season. I do wonder if that will catch up with him as we enter the PlayOffs, but Henry smashed the Houston Texans in Week 17 and looks to be getting stronger as Defensive Lines begin to get banged up down the stretch.

Derrick Henry is the key and he will be keen to get after the Baltimore Defensive Line which has allowed teams to produce 5 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Those have been against weak teams, but the Titans are anything but a weak Offense and I do think Henry will open things up for Ryan Tannehill.

The Quarter Back is capable of making plays with his legs when teams focus in on Derrick Henry, but the big question for Ryan Tannehill is whether he can make enough plays with his arm to keep the Ravens from crowding the line of scrimmage. Ryan Tannehill has really played well for the Titans since taking over as the starting Quarter Back, and I am not going to put a lot of stock into the recent Baltimore performances when it comes to defending the pass.

Baltimore have simply not played very good Offenses as they have put the wins together and I do think the likes of AJ Brown and Corey Davis can win battles on the outside to give Ryan Tannehill options in the passing game. The Ravens may have better balance Offensively, but the Titans are likely going to feel pretty good about the way they can move the ball and they have to be motivating themselves with feelings that people still don't believe in them.

Over the last twelve months they have upset the Ravens twice on the road, yet here the Titans are set as the home underdog and a relatively big one too. The line doesn't make much sense to me if I am being honest, and I was expecting this to perhaps be a pick 'em with the feeling that Baltimore are going to be a team that is publicly backed.

In reality I do think the Titans have matched up well with the Ravens and they can perhaps win this game outright, but I will look to take the points on offer.

You may have to take a shorter price to go through the key number 3, but I think that would be very important with this game likely to end with a Field Goal win either way.

There are some strong trends favouring the Baltimore Ravens, but I do think Mike Vrabel will get the very best out of the Titans with the 'no one believes in us' line likely to have been used over and over this past week. The Titans look to be underrated here and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Teams that won at least 10 games missed out on the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket, but the 8-8 Chicago Bears are one of two teams without a winning record that are playing on the NFC side. They held their own destiny in their hands in Week 17, but the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers meant the Bears were thankful to the Los Angeles Rams who beat the Arizona Cardinals.

That might mean the Bears can enter the post-season with a 'nothing to lose' attitude as all teams begin at 0-0, but they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to progress any further.

And while the majority of players may feel it is a bonus to be playing in the PlayOffs after a poor stretch in the middle of the regular season, the likes of Head Coach Matt Nagy and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky have to show they are capable of taking the Bears forward in the months ahead. I do think the PlayOff spot means the Head Coach will remain in charge, but Trubisky's position at Quarter Back remains unsure and an early loss in the PlayOffs coupled with the blow out defeat in Week 17 to the Packers will have many believing the Bears should look for a new signal caller.

This does feel a very difficult match up for Trubisky with the New Orleans Saints Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level and I think it may be one that underlines the belief that the Bears need to look elsewhere when it comes to the Quarter Back position. During a strong end to the season Mitchell Trubisky has been able to lean on the Chicago Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes for David Montgomery, but the Saints Defensive Line have been capable up front and that will mean the pressure is all on Trubisky.

He struggled against the Green Bay Secondary which is a strong one, but Mitchell Trubisky can't hope to have a lot more success against this Saints Secondary which is talented. They will be looking for the pass rush pressure to get around Trubisky and force him into some poor decisions, but Chicago have to hope their Receivers can stand up for their beleaguered Quarter Back and at least give him a chance to make some plays.

While the game is close the Bears will be able to run the ball and try and control the clock, but things change dramatically if New Orleans are able to move a couple of scores ahead. The last couple of weeks has seen Drew Brees improving as he continues his recovery from a rib injury, but he will also be boosted by some key returns this week.

Alvin Kamara has been taken off the Covid-19 list and he should be available with the entire Running Back corps who missed out in Week 17, while the passing game will benefit from the return of Michael Thomas who has had an injury hit season. In Thomas' absence, New Orleans have found a couple of other Receivers to make plays for Drew Brees and I think the addition of their top Wide Receiver will make the Saints very dangerous.

Holes up front on the Chicago Defensive Line have allowed teams to establish the run against them and I do think Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be able to have strong performances running the ball. The Saints Offensive Line have been very strong both when it comes to run blocking and pass protection so the feeling is that the Saints will be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than the Chicago Bears.

As strong as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit has been, there is an opportunity to attack the Secondary and Drew Brees still looks to have enough to be successful in this game.

I do have to be concerned with the way the Saints have seen their recent seasons ended in the PlayOffs with upsets and some miracle plays going against them. That make the number look very big on the spread on Super Wild Card Weekend, but the Saints looks considerably stronger with the likes of Kamara and Thomas back, while the Chicago Bears have been fortunate to reach the PlayOffs.

The Saints are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the favourite and double digit favourites in the PlayOffs are 7-1 against the spread going back to 2011.

We have seen the Chicago Bears struggle to be competitive as a big underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread when given 6 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are also 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games when coming off a double digit loss at home and I think the Saints will have too much Offensive firepower here as they move into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: A number of starters were rested for the Week 17 game at the Cleveland Browns, but the Pittsburgh Steelers almost came close to the upset which may have knocked the Browns out of the PlayOffs. There was every chance that the Steelers were going to have to host Cleveland again in the Super Wild Card Round so the decision to rest key starters looks like being a good one by Mike Tomlin who knows anything less than a place in the Divisional Round will make this a disappointing season.

The Steelers have lost some momentum with four losses in their last five games, but they did finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and will believe having some of their better players resting last week will really benefit them.

That also means Pittsburgh would have kept some of their Offensive plays under wraps for this Wild Card Game, but the same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns who had to dig deep to beat the Steelers last week. It has snapped a long wait to return to the PlayOffs for the Browns, but they are considerable underdogs this week.

It has been a difficult week for the Cleveland Browns who will be without their Head Coach and a number of other players through positive Covid-19 tests. Olivier Vernon suffered an injury which means his season is over and the Browns are going to be challenged by this Steelers team who have had a number of their own players return with the additional time to recover.

Joe Haden will be missing in the Secondary, but the Browns will be looking to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than first time PlayOff Quarter Back Baker Mayfield. Both Chubb and Hunt have played well behind a powerful Cleveland Offensive Line and they should have some success establishing the run against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line which has given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season.

Teams have had to focus on establishing the run to loosen up the Pittsburgh pass Defense, but that has been difficult all season. There is a considerable pass rush the Steelers are able to generate and even the injury to Bud Dupree has not slowed down the pressure up front, and it could be hard for Cleveland to keep Baker Mayfield upright if he needs to move the chains from third and long spots.

As long as the game is close the Browns will feel good about their chances of moving the ball, but they won't be looking for Baker Mayfield to have to put the game on his shoulders. The Quarter Back has been inconsistent behind the Offensive Line and Mayfield has shown some inaccuracy which could be a real problem against this strong Pittsburgh Secondary.

Much seems to depend on how competitive the Browns can keep the game, but I do think the rest will help Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offensive unit to get back on track. Earlier this season we saw the veteran Quarter Back playing at a very good level and I do think he will have benefited from having two weeks between games having not had a Bye Week during the course of the regular season.

There are some talented Receivers that the Steelers can look to and the return of Eric Ebron is another huge boost for the entire Offense. Injuries and positive tests look to have hurt the Cleveland Secondary and I do think Roethlisberger is going to have a strong outing which can help take the game away from the Browns.

Even Mason Rudolph was able to have some success against Cleveland last week and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line looks strong and capable of giving Big Ben as much time as he needs. With the Receivers looking like they have rediscovered a way of holding onto the ball rather than having the drops that were blighting them a few weeks ago, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball through the air with consistency and strong success.

For much of the season the Steelers have leant on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back and that is because Pittsburgh have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked. The Steelers Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for James Connor or Benny Snell, and I think they are unlikely to get much joy from the Cleveland Defensive Line.

With that in mind I think we will see Pittsburgh looking to throw the ball around and I do think the conditions will allow Roethlisberger to do that.

I like the Steelers to win and cover this final Wild Card Game and that is largely because I feel they are going to have too much Offensive power for the Browns to stay with them. Baker Mayfield is a first time PlayOff Quarter Back and those players have tended to struggle in their debut start in the post-season, while the Browns have a poor 1-4-1 record against the spread in their last six games at Heinz Field.

The Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine at home, while the Browns have an awful record on the road and as an underdog. Cleveland have some important players missing and I think Pittsburgh look healthier at this stage of the season which will give them the edge and the ability to put up enough points to cover the mark.

Cleveland struggled when playing against their AFC North rivals in the regular season and their poor record in Pittsburgh is likely to be extended here.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)