College Football Playoff Picks 2026- Semi Final Games (Thursday 8th January-Friday 9th January)

Those who have liked the consistency and tradition of some of the biggest schools in College Football may feel the final four of the 2025 season is one that should be treated with disdain, but welcome to the world of the NIL.

They may be considered upstarts rather than 'Blue Bloods', but there is no taking away from the successes these four teams have had and they all deserve their shot to win a National Championship.

It is the Semi Final between two Big Ten rivals meeting for a second time this season that will provide the favourite to win the Championship, but the Miami Hurricanes have shown they have deserved their spot in the Playoff Bracket, while the Mississippi Rebels are overcoming off-field drama and actually using that to fuel their own run.

With just three games left in the College Football season, it does feel that there is still some significant drama that has to be played out before the Championship can be raised.

Both Semi Final games look very intriguing and my thoughts can be read below.

Mississippi Rebels vs Miami Hurricanes Pick: There will be some serious questions asked about the current format of the College Football Playoff after the lower Seed won three of the four Quarter Final games played. That follows the opening season when all four Quarter Final games were won by First Round winners and there is a real feeling that those higher Seeded teams are being hindered by having a Bye and competing against teams who have not had a significant layoff between the end of the regular season and those Quarter Final games.

Expansion is surely going to be coming up again and that would mean all teams likely to be involved in First Round action, but for now we have a final four and all will feel they are capable of winning the National Championship later this month.

First up on Thursday is the Number 6 Seed Mississippi Rebels playing the Number 10 Miami Hurricanes, although it is the latter who have been set as favourites.

This could be down to the fact that the Hurricanes have had two impressive wins in their run to the Semi Final against the Texas A&M Aggies and Ohio State Buckeyes, but the Rebels will point to the win over SEC Champion Georgia Bulldogs in the Quarter Final as a reason to believe.

Prior to that, the Rebels had blown out an overmatched Tulane Green Wave at home, while a few more Coaches have now headed off to join former Head Coach Lane Kiffin.

The decision made by Kiffin has not gone down very well with the Mississippi upper management and the fans, but it is telling that the players have used the departure as motivation. Some have voiced their irritation about the former Head Coach and antics they feel are trying to overshadow what the Rebels continue to achieve and that certainly has been fuelling the desire to keep this season going.

Mississippi showed there is so much to like about them in the upset over the Georgia Bulldogs and they will believe they have the Offensive unit to give the Miami Hurricanes plenty to think about. Of course there will be a huge amount of respect for the Hurricanes who have restricted the Aggies to 3 points and the Buckeyes to 14 points in earning back to back upset wins, although this time the Miami Hurricanes will be set as the favourites and that can change some of the mentality around a team.

So much is going to be decided by what happens when the Rebels have the ball.

For all of the impressiveness around the Miami victories, it is clear the Defensive unit have been dominant and the Offense has been doing just enough so the key here is whether the Mississippi Rebels can find enough time to give Quarter Back Trinidad Chambliss a chance to move the chains.

An 'easy' way would be to establish the run and the Rebels have had success doing that, but they have not yet tried to run on this Hurricanes Defensive Line. This has been a strength of the Miami team and they are big winners if they can force an opponent to throw the ball out of third and long spots.

Over the course of the season, the Miami pass rush has been impressive, but players have dialled it up several notches in the post-season and they are creating havoc up front.

Trinidad Chambliss has been given time by his Offensive Line when he has stepped back to throw the ball and that has allowed the Quarter Back to put together a couple of very strong showings. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be hugely decisive to the final outcome, especially as there have been some holes in the Miami Secondary that have been exposed when Quarter Backs had had just enough time to make their plays down the field.

It is certainly something Chambliss is going to believe he can do and this is also a Quarter Back capable of moving the pocket with his legs and escaping pressure. This is also very important for the underdog and the Rebels will be looking for Trinidad Chambliss to continue what has been a really impressive first season at this level of College Football.

Much like the other side of the ball, the Hurricanes have to know that running the ball is essential to any success they are going to have in this game.

However, the difference here is that the Miami Offensive Line has shown it can open up significant holes up front and the Mississippi Defensive Line has had a season-long struggle against the run. They have been a little better in the Playoffs, but the Rebels had one of those games against a Power 5 Conference Champion at home and the Hurricanes are going to pose significant challenges for them.

If they can put Carson Beck in third and manageable spots, Miami will be very confident that they can move the chains with some consistency and it is yet another key battle ground at the Line of Scrimmage.

However, there has been some inconsistency in the passing game for the Hurricanes and they are facing a Rebels team that have been able to get some pressure up front to rattle Quarter Backs. That has aided the Secondary and Carson Beck will need plenty of support to keep things going in this one, although the Hurricanes have rightly been set as favourites.

The expectation is that this is going to be a close and competitive game, but one where the Miami Hurricanes perhaps have the stronger success at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That should ultimately see Miami pass the Mississippi Rebels, but Trinidad Chambliss is unlikely to roll over without a fight and that makes having the hook over a key number most appealing.

If it is going to end in a big win, the Hurricanes perhaps have the power to do that, but Chambliss and the Rebels are playing with real motivation right now and they can make sure this competitive for the full sixty minutes and perhaps even pull yet another upset.

Indiana Hoosiers vs Oregon Ducks Pick: The Big Ten has taken over from the SEC as the Conference with the most likely contenders to win the National Championship and this is a Semi Final involving two of those teams.

The winner is going to be the favourite in the National Championship Game later this month and the question is whether it will be repeat or revenge when the Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) face the Oregon Ducks (13-1) in Atlanta?

The Hoosiers put together an unbeaten season, which included winning a road game in Oregon, and Indiana have crushed the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff Quarter Final. Some were wondering if this upstart could even beat a blue blood school at a big moment, but the Hoosiers are the only team in two seasons who have been the higher Seed to win the Quarter Final game played.

There is no doubting how good this Indiana team are, but they are facing an Oregon team that have beaten everyone other than the Hoosiers. A comfortable win over James Madison Dukes at home in the First Round would not have concerned too many, but shutting out the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Quarter Final and avoiding going out at the same stage for a second year in a row will have some taking notice.

Of course beating the Big Ten Champion is a very different task than beating the Big 12 Champion and this looks like it is another Semi Final that could go down to the wire.

Unlike the NFL, it is rare to play the same team twice in a season when it comes to College Football, although it does happen.

This year it has happened nine times, but the team that have won the first game have only repeated twice and that is something that the Indiana Hoosiers will have to be wary of in this Semi Final. The Hoosiers won by 10 points on the road and were pretty dominant on both sides of the ball, but Oregon will take plenty of heart from the way rematches have trended this season and the Ducks are much better than what they were able to show in that regular season defeat.

The two teams that have repeated regular season wins in the second time round both won by at least 22 point margins the first time around and were 20 plus point winners again.

However, none of the other seven games had been decided by more than 17 points and six were by single digit margins, which suggests this game is going to be another close one and a Semi Final Oregon can enter with some confidence.

In saying that, Oregon will be well aware that they need to be better across the board if they are going to knock off the Number 1 Seed and Conference Champion.

For starters they have to find a way to run the ball with some productivity to at least keep Quarter Back Dante Moore in third and manageable positions. Third Down conversion is going to be absolutely massive to the final outcome of this game and a Quarter Back expected to go very quickly in the NFL Draft in April has to be better than he was the first time around against this Defensive unit.

Dante Moore can take encouragement from the recent numbers the Indiana Secondary have allowed, although running the ball against this Hoosiers Defensive Line is going to be incredibly challenging. If the Ducks Offensive Line are not able to win at the Line of Scrimmage as far as the run game goes, they must be able to stand up to the Indiana pass rush and at least offer the star Quarter Back time to throw the ball down the field.

Two Interceptions were thrown in the regular season and that is something the Ducks will not be able to afford if they are going to upset the odds.

Avoiding those and learning from what they have seen already in the regular seaosn should give Dante Moore a better plan from which to attack, but the Quarter Back cannot take too many risks in what is going to be a battle.

The same will apply to Indiana, but they will be confident with the way they approached the first game and only mistake by Fernando Mendoza in the Fourth Quarter almost flipped the momentum. The game was tied up he threw a Pick Six, but Indiana were the better team and ultimately ran out pretty clear winners, even if they are expecting different looks in this Semi Final.

Indiana were well balanced in the regular season game, and they did not shy away from pounding the rock.

They only managed 3 yards per carry, but had two scores on the ground and the Hoosiers Offensive Line have been in powering mood down the stretch. They will also have noted some of the successes teams have had moving the ball against this Oregon Defensive Line in recent games and putting this team in third and manageable spots could be the key to repeat, rather than revenge.

Some even see this as a fight between two Quarter Backs that may go First and Second in the next NFL Draft and third and manageable would certainly give Fernando Mendoza to produce stronger numbers than Dante Moore.

He had over 200 passing yards in the road win over the Ducks and would have more time in the pocket if the team are able to move the ball a little bit more efficiently on the ground. The Hoosiers had kept Mendoza well protected in that regular season win and doing the same here would certainly mean the Number 1 Seed can come out on top.

As mentioned a few times, beating a team twice in the same season is not easy in College Football.

The Ducks need to be given a lot of respect for the season they have put together and they are going to have a plan to turn around that home defeat to Indiana.

However, the Hoosiers have continued to pound out the wins and they will feel they can win the battle of the Third Down conversions, which ultimately will be a key to the final outcome. As long as the turnover battle is level at the least, the Hoosiers can find a way to come out on top and earn the opportunity to win a National Championship later this month.

MY PICKS: Mississippi Rebels + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

First Round Playoff: 3-1, + 1.67 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.75% Yield)

Week 15: 2-2, - 0.29 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)

Week 14: 5-2-1, + 2.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 30.50% Yield)

Week 13: 3-3, - 0.35 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield

Week 12: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)

Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)

Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

NFL Week 18 Picks 2022 (January 8-9)

It has been a long time since the NFL has made significant changes to the regular season schedule, but the 2021 season has added the seventeenth game.

Instead of Wild Card Weekend, it means we have one more round of regular season games to be played before the PlayOffs and it has largely come down to the final week as the NFL would have liked. While eleven of the fourteen post-season teams are now known, the top Seed in the AFC and some Divisional titles are still up for grabs and it means there are some important games on the schedule.

However, it is the final week of the regular season and you have to be aware that teams may not play their starters as they would if these games were played several weeks ago. For teams like the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, not much can change in Week 18 and so you have to keep an ear out on the kind of approach the Head Coaches will take.

The season has been a little up and down for the NFL Picks, but I am looking for one more strong week which will give me some momentum to take into the PlayOffs. A rough middle patch looks to be behind me, but Week 18 is not the one where I want to take too many risks with so much uncertainty about and even more so with players moving on and off the Covid lists.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: The loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 may prove to be a costly one for the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) when it comes to finishing up with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. However, they still have a chance of earning that spot and the only Bye in the Conference through to the Divisional Round and they can heap the pressure on the Tennessee Titans by winning this Week 18 game on Saturday.

They are heading to the Denver Broncos (7-9) who have been eliminated from the post-season again after losing three games in a row. It is another season of underachievement for the Broncos, but you should not underestimate the motivation in trying to play spoiler for a Divisional rival.

However, injuries and Covid issues have hurt Denver down the stretch and that is most evident in the Quarter Back position as Drew Lock gets the start in place of Teddy Bridgewater. There is no doubt at all that this is a position that needs to be upgraded if the Denver Broncos are going to challenge for the AFC West title and more, while the players may struggle for motivation if they feel Head Coach Vic Fangio is going to be relieved of his duties on Monday.

This looks like a game in which it is going to be really difficult for Denver to move the ball with any consistency behind this Offense. The team have been inconsistent running the ball and the Quarter Back is not someone you would rely on to make plays, even if Drew Lock has some talented skill players around him.

Drew Lock may have more of a chance if the Broncos are able to run the ball against a Kansas City Defensive Line which has not been able to clamp down on the run as they would like. He will also be throwing into a Secondary that has had a couple of tough outings of late, but Drew Lock is not Justin Herbert nor Joe Burrow and I think the Broncos will find it tough to keep up with the Chiefs if they have their high-scoring boots on.

The frustration for the Denver Broncos organisation and the fans may be the feeling that the Defensive unit is good enough to be a competitive post-season one. Unfortunately they look to be going into Week 18 without some key players on the Defensive unit and that may leave them vulnerable against a Kansas City team that will want to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 which saw them lose the grip of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Kansas City should be able to run the ball, but they do lean on Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back and I do think there will be more spaces for him to exploit than would usually be found against the Denver Secondary. Important players are missing for the Broncos on the backside of the Defensive unit and Mahomes and company will be looking for some momentum to take into what is likely to be a Wild Card battle next weekend.

Patrick Mahomes is expected to get time in the pocket and that could spell major problems for the Broncos and I do think the Chiefs will be able to pull away for a strong win.

Playing at Mile High is a challenge, but the Chiefs have won their last two visits to Denver by 24 and 27 points and they can cover a big mark in this one too.

The Chiefs are now 10-2 against the spread in the last twelve between these Divisional rivals and the road team have been very effective too. Kansas City are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite and I think they can use the defeat in Week 17 to motivate themselves to a strong win as the run towards the Super Bowl begins.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There is no doubting the importance of this game for the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) as they look for the win that will take them through to the PlayOffs. A disappointing home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders means there is all to play for in Week 18 of the regular season and the Colts are facing a Divisional rival who have given them plenty to think about in recent years.

Playing at the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) has been a particularly difficulty for the Colts and it is something that has not been lost on the players. Even then, Indianapolis are a big favourite to win considering the form we have seen from the Jaguars and adding to the mix the importance for the Jaguars to avoid winning and thus securing the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft again.

A new Coaching staff is going to be in place for the 2022 season and Jacksonville were embarrassed in Week 17 when losing by 40 points at the New England Patriots. Trevor Lawrence has struggled and I do think it is hard to trust Jacksonville.

In saying that, I do think the Jaguars have matched up well with the Colts and they will not want to end their season with another heavy loss. Many of the Jacksonville players will be very clear that they could be playing for their future, not only in Florida but around the NFL, and that should see the home team put in one more big effort.

Injuries are not helping Trevor Lawrence and losing James Robinson for the season has made it difficult to run the ball- however, I do think the Colts have struggled at the Defensive Line and it should give the Jaguars a bit more of an opportunity to get in front of the chains and thus make it a little easier for Lawrence to make some plays.

That should also mean Trevor Lawrence has a bit more time in the pocket to attack the Colts Secondary and I think the Jaguars can move the ball here and at least force their opponent to dig deep for their place in the post-season.

We know what we are going to get from Indianapolis when they have the ball in their own hands and that will mean a lot of Jonathan Taylor pounding the rock towards the PlayOffs. The Patriots crushed Jacksonville on the ground in Week 17 and I think the Colts will follow suit, although it does mean that time will be taken off the clock a little quicker and Indianapolis will not have to rely on Carson Wentz to do more than manage the game at Quarter Back.

Like Trevor Lawrence, Carson Wentz should have time when he steps back to throw and it should be a game that the Indianapolis Colts are able to win.

I just don't see a blow out with the expected effort to come from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last six visits to this part of Florida and they are now just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against Divisional rivals.

Jacksonville do have some terrible trends behind them and have looked very uncompetitive in recent weeks as they look forward to the off-season, but this is a huge number and all of the pressure is on the Indianapolis Colts. Trevor Lawrence has to avoid the mistakes which have plagued him of late, but if the Jaguars can run the ball effectively, they should be able to put their Quarter Back in a good position to at least keep this one close.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 was enough for the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) to once again finish a season as the AFC North Champions as a young team continues to show progression. There is much more to come from the Bengals beyond the 2021 season, but they are going to be hosting a Wild Card PlayOff Game next weekend and so a decision has been made to largely rest starters.

Joe Burrow is sitting at Quarter Back as he looks to refresh physically and mentally and he admitted he would have been good to play in Week 18 if this game was important enough to the Bengals. Instead it is Brandon Allen who will get the call at Quarter Back and there are a number of Bengals who will also be absent on both sides of the ball.

It has seen the spread shift markedly from the opening line and it is the Cleveland Browns (7-9) who will be favoured despite finishing with a losing record. Like the Bengals, the Cleveland Browns will be playing with a backup Quarter Back in Case Keenum, although the difference between the teams is that there seems to be less faith in Baker Mayfield going forward than the Cincinnati Bengals have in Joe Burrow.

The Browns can put in a much fuller effort in Week 18 than the Bengals, but they are also going to be missing some key players. However, Nick Chubb should be able to start behind the Offensive Line and I think he can have a lot of success running the ball against a makeshift Cincinnati Defensive Line.

Cincinnati had been struggling to stop the run down the stretch anyway, and I think Nick Chubb can have a much more efficient game in this one than he did in the Week 17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Much of that was down to some poor Coaching decisions and I do worry that the Browns will only disappoint and move away from the obvious play-calls that need to be made.

Case Keenum is a solid enough backup at Quarter Back and I think he will be able to out-duel Brandon Allen and the backup Cincinnati Offensive skill players. The Browns played well Defensively in the loss to the Steelers and they do look like they match up well with the Bengals and have already blown them out on the road.

Trends are hard to use in a game where so many second string players will be used, but the Browns should have the stronger players starting and that can make all the difference. Being at home should also have the fans pushing Cleveland to win and they can do enough to cover this spread against the Bengals, who are focusing on Wild Card Weekend.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: The pressure is on the Tennessee Titans (11-5) to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and thus secure the one and only Bye in the Conference. Three wins in four have put the Titans in a position to secure that top Seed, but they have to win in Week 18 after the Kansas City Chiefs managed to win their last regular season game.

A Divisional game on the road is a tough spot to be in, but the Titans look to be getting healthier down the stretch and Derrick Henry has been activated. He won't be playing in Week 18, but that news is going to give the rest of the team a bounce and there is plenty of motivation on this sideline outside of earning the top Seed.

They were embarrassed by the Houston Texans (4-12) in a home defeat so the Tennessee Titans will be making the journey with revenge on their minds. The Texans had won two in a row to miss out on the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft, but that run was ended in a defeat to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 and Houston is surrounded by uncertainty with rumours that the Head Coach will be moved on at the end of the season.

David Culley has performed above expectations, but he has not always gotten on the same page as the players and it could mean some down tools to make sure the Head Coach is fired on Monday. Playing at home and with their futures in mind means it won't be as clear as you can see in other sports, but this is also a bad match up for the Texans and I expect Tennessee to cover a big spread.

Even without Derrick Henry, Tennessee's Offensive Line has continued to pave the way for some big gains on the ground and the likes of D'Onta Foreman has made an impact. The Titans were very strong on the ground last week in the crushing of the Miami Dolphins and I expect them to be able to establish the run in this game against a vulnerable Houston Defensive Line.

Ryan Tannehill has also improved his play with AJ Brown back at Receiver and I think the run will set up the play-action for the Quarter Back. He should have a bit more time to let routes develop down the field and Ryan Tannehill can hurt a Houston Secondary which has given up some big plays and the Titans can win this game as long as the Quarter Back can avoid some of the mistakes he is capable of making.

Moving the ball is going to be a much tougher challenge for the Houston Texans despite the improved play of Davis Mills and the Offensive unit down the stretch. However, this does not look like a good match up for the Texans who will struggle to run the ball and leave Mills in third and long spots behind an Offensive Line which has been hit hard by injury.

Davis Mills played well against the Jaguars, but I think the Quarter Back will have issues if the Texans are not able to run the ball. The Titans Secondary may be the best one he has played for a while and I think they revenge factor will make sure Tennessee play hard enough to force drives to stall and help the team pull clear for a good looking win.

The Titans do have a poor record covering in Houston, which is a major concern, but they are 4-1 against the spread when facing Divisional opponents. I am not always convinced about Tennessee when it comes to covering big spreads because of the nature of the Offensive game-plan, but I think this is a game in which the Defensive unit can set the team up in strong field position.

With the Texans perhaps not as focused as they would normally be with the rumours surrounding Coaching changes, I think the Titans will come through with a cover and earn the Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The top Seed in the NFC has been locked up by the Green Bay Packers (13-3) and that means the team will be receiving a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs. That makes this Week 18 game a little uncertain as to the approach that the Packers will take with their starters, although the feeling is that previous seasons have shown they need to keep their Offensive unit in sync with one another.

Resting the starters will mean the Packers may not have a meaningful snap until the Divisional Round Game in two weeks time and would mean three weeks between snaps for the starters. Aaron Rodgers has made it clear he wants to play for the Packers in this final regular season game as they head to the Detroit Lions (2-13-1) who could still end the season with the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

A blow out loss to the Seattle Seahawks means the Lions could finish with the top Pick if they lose and the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts. That still feels like a long shot and Head Coach Dan Campbell has largely has had his Detroit team playing much harder than the record would suggest.

I think the Lions will be a lot better in Week 18 and they could have Jared Goff back at Quarter Back, although the lean may be that Tim Boyle gets another shot behind Center. Injuries on the Offensive Line have made it a little tougher for the Lions to move the ball on the ground, although they should have more success against the Packers Defensive Line.

Moving the team into third and manageable spots is hugely important for the Lions if they are going to earn the upset- it will give the Quarter Back a chance to make plays down the field, even though Detroit have lost some skill players for the final game of the regular season and some players will already be looking ahead to the off-seson.

Dan Campbell is likely to take more risks than normal in this game, but the key to the outcome is how long the Green Bay Packers stick with their starters- it is the hardest factor to place an importance on in Week 18, although the feeling is that Aaron Rodgers and company could go until the Third or Fourth Quarter.

If they are playing, Green Bay should have considerable success with the Offensive Line potentially bolstered in Week 18. I think that could be important for Green Bay to build some chemistry at a point where they are going to need the Offensive Line in a couple of weeks time.

Running the ball is so important when it comes to January Football and especially in a place like Green Bay and AJ Dillon can have a strong showing. Aaron Jones is expected to sit out, but Dillon should be able to pound the rock with real success and it should mean Aaron Rodgers is largely protected at Quarter Back and able to finish the regular season with the kind of flourish that will make him favourite for MVP.

It is a tough game to handicap with the uncertainty around the Green Bay Packers, but the Dallas Cowboys showed teams may want to finish with real momentum. They also had little to play for, but the Cowboys don't have the luxury of having next weekend off and I think that is key for the Packers to keep their starters out there.

The Packers have not covered in their last four in Detroit, which is surprising, but they are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten against NFC opponents.

Detroit have been a really good underdog to back this season under Dan Campbell and they will not be as bad as they were in Week 17, but the Green Bay Packers may have enough Offensive firepower to pull clear and hold on when pulling the starters.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first team to ever win and lose seven straight games in the same NFL season suffered another defeat in Week 17 and this is a fatal one as far as the PlayOffs go. The Miami Dolphins (8-8) were blown out at the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 and that has eliminated them from post-season discussion before the final regular season game has been played.

It is much different for the New England Patriots (10-6) who have secured a spot in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs next weekend, but can still win the AFC East if the Buffalo Bills fail to beat the New York Jets. That looks a long shot in reality and the Patriots could very easily decide that they don't want to risk starters if they hear the chances of winning the Division are all but over at half time.

Bill Belichick can be a Head Coach that looks to keep starters fresh with the PlayOffs in mind so that is something to consider in this game. I also find it very difficult to ignore how difficult New England have found playing Divisional games in Miami and at this time of the year the change in temperature has to be felt much more than normal.

Of course you do have to wonder about the Miami motivation having seen PlayOff hopes turn to dust in Week 17 when the minimum expectation may have been to have a chance in the final game of the regular season. Brian Flores can secure back to back winning seasons for the Dolphins, even if they have failed to reach the post-season under this Head Coach, and it may see Miami keep hold of his services despite some reports linking them with a potential move for Jim Harbaugh.

The Dolphins do not match up that well with the New England Patriots on the Offensive side of the ball, but the feeling is they could find themselves playing against backups at some point in this game. The Patriots are rocky when it comes to stopping the run, but the Miami Offensive Line has largely been called on to protect Tua Tagovailoa with the inconsistent Running Backs at the team.

Relying on the inconsistent Tagovailoa has worked at times, but it is also the main reason the Miami Dolphins have not been able to push into the post-season and I would not be surprised if this position is upgraded in the off-season. I would not be that confident in Tua Tagovailoa, but I think he could see the New England Secondary bring in some backups and that should give the Dolphins a better chance to move the chains.

They will have to ride out some difficult moments while the Patriots are fully focused on the game though and that is because New England are built for PlayOff Football with an Offensive Line that loves to plough the road for the run. After Week 17, Miami's Defensive Line may have something to prove against the run, but I would expect the Patriots to have some early successes while they are looking focused.

However, you have to again suggest that the Patriots are likely to be pulling starters and that could just aid Miami to stay in the game. If they can clamp down on the run, Miami will feel they have the Secondary to slow down the Patriots anyway and I think this is a big spread for the road team to cover, no matter how much they 'need' to win.

New England are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games in Miami, while the Dolphins are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven as the home underdog. I think the Dolphins can keep this one close with a chance to finish with a winning season and Brian Flores is going to want his players to at least redeem themselves for an awful showing in Week 17 which proved so costly.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The AFC East Division is up for grabs in Week 18 and the Buffalo Bills (10-6) will end up Champions in consecutive seasons for the first time in almost thirty years if they can win this game. The Bills are huge favourites to do that and they look to be facing the New York Jets (4-12) at the right time with the Jets struggling through illness and injury.

Winning should not be an issue for the Bills, despite the fact they have been beaten to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier this season, but covering this huge number is a different kind of challenge. They should be focused as Buffalo try and secure a top four Seed which will mean at least hosting one PlayOff game this month and possibly even two if they can climb into the top three.

That is for another day and the focus has to be for the Bills to make sure there are no slip ups here- Josh Allen is looking like he is peaking towards a strong ending and I think that is very important for Buffalo, although the fans would love to see more consistency out of the running game. They will have more success in this one, but Buffalo like keeping the ball in the hands of Josh Allen, instead of the Running Backs, and that is something that could hold them back this January.

In this game Buffalo won't really be hurt by that and I expect them to be moving the ball very efficiently as they did when blowing out the Jets on the road. Josh Allen won't just be a threat with his legs, but he has almost a full complement of Receivers to target down the field and I expect the Bills to pile up some big yards and points over the course of the four Quarters.

Zach Wilson did not play for the New York Jets in the first meeting between these AFC East rivals, but the rookie has had a tough season and could be without key players throughout the Offensive unit. He is facing a tough Defensive minded Head Coach in Sean McDermott and I do think the Jets will have issues moving the ball with any consistency, even if there have been one or two flashes from Wilson at Quarter Back.

It has been possible for teams to run the ball against the Bills Defensive Line and that may give the New York Jets a chance to keep this one close, as long as they are in the game on the scoreboard. However, Zach Wilson has to play a clean game, as does the rest of the team, and getting behind the chains could see the Bills pass rush dominate the game.

Throwing into the Buffalo Secondary is a huge test for any Quarter Back and especially one as inexperienced as Zach Wilson and I think that will show up here.

The underdog has been a very good team to back in this Divisional rivalry, but I think the New York Jets may not have the intensity to show off their teeth in this Week 18 game.

New York are just 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen when set as the underdog, while Buffalo have begun to dominate their AFC East rivals. I think that will be the case here too and I believe they can do enough to cover a very big line.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 70-66-1, - 4.32 Units (274 Units Staked, - 1.58% Yield)

Capital One Cup Semi Final Picks (January 7-8)

The FA Cup Third Round weekend may be a favourite of mine when it comes to viewing, but regularly my picks stink as I can never seem to second guess managers as much as I wish. That was the case for the Liverpool game when I was sure Brendan Rodgers would play his strongest team, but he made plenty of changes and Liverpool struggled to a 2-0 win over Oldham Athletic.

Manchester City failed to win, Chelsea coasted at what looked a tricky away tie at Derby County and Manchester United lost in a tough weekend to predict.


Manchester United- where can we start about what has been happening at Old Trafford? I know there are some 'fans' out there who are quick to blame David Moyes for everything these days, but I feel sorry for the manager. He has made some bad decisions, that is to be expected from someone learning the pressure and demands of being at a club the size of Manchester United, but I am blaming the players as much as him, if not more.

Fabio let everyone down with an ill-timed and reckless challenge that effectively cost United their place in the FA Cup for this season, but what is Moyes supposed to do about that? Much like the Kevin Nolan sending off for West Ham United in a recent loss to Fulham, Fabio let his team mates and his manager down when he didn't need to.

Some of the final balls have been downright disgusting and while Moyes can work on those in training, I think the players who are very well paid should be looking at themselves and questioning whether they are really doing enough.

Moyes needs at least another two windows to start putting his stamp on the team, but whether he gets the money necessary is another concern for the fans, one that has been brewing ever since the Glazers took over.

Truth be told, we don't know if there is the money that has been suggested in the papers- there may well be one chance for Moyes, like Kenny Dalglish was given by the Liverpool board, to really make a splash in the market albeit without selling a £50 million pound striker (unlikely to even get half of that for an almost out of contract Wayne Rooney in the summer if United do decide to cash in). However, the supply is not going to be inexhaustible and I don't think there will be room for Moyes to make mistakes that could set United back a few years.

I truly believe that he has to get those decisions right if United are to remain successful in the coming years, and that includes not panic buying in this January window if the players he wants are not available. In hindsight, that should have been the plan last summer when bringing in Maruoane Fellaini at the last minute when other more attractive signings either slipped through our fingers or outright did not want to sign for the club.

Winning the League Cup will at least give Moyes some clout against his naysayers, but it still looks like being a difficult few months ahead unless the players also buck up their ideas and take responsibility for some of the performances we have seen for a few years now.


Sunderland v Manchester United Pick: There is a new build up of pressure on David Moyes as some of the more spoilt aspects of the Manchester United support cannot wait to get on his back, but for some of the mistakes the manager has made, I think the players need to have a hard look at themselves in the mirror and remind themselves why they play for the biggest club in England and one of the biggest in world football.

The terrible tackle from Fabio that effectively cost Manchester United their place in the FA Cup and some of the poor final balls we saw in that loss to Swansea can't solely be pinned on the manager in my opinion. Some of the tactical decisions have been baffling at times, but Moyes is learning and needs to be given time to get things sorted.

Being away from Old Trafford may actually benefit this Manchester United team at the moment as the away support is the best in the country and there will be a loud response for the team. At home, that atmosphere can be a little subdued and nervy and it won't help the players as that feeds down from the stands so I do think United can come here and earn a vital lead in the first leg of this Semi Final.

It might not be a big lead to take back to Old Trafford in two weeks time as Sunderland have definitely become a little tougher to see off since Gus Poyet took over. A lack of goals has to be a concern for the manager, while they may not have the same rotation possibility as Manchester United with just 48 hours gone since both teams played.

Sunderland have failed to score in their last 2 home games in the Premier League and needed a late, late goal to force extra time against Chelsea in the Quarter Final before seeing them off. Add to that the fact that Manchester United's last 3 wins here have come by the minimum margin and the tough losses United have taken in their last couple of games and I like United to sneak a lead back to Old Trafford.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: The 5-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Sunday was a real kick in the teeth for the travelling West Ham United fans and has amped the pressure up on Sam Allardyce. There have been some suggestions that he will be removed as manager of the club if West Ham are beaten at Cardiff City on Saturday and that may take away some of the focus that is required when visiting Manchester City.

Manchester City have a strong squad which they used fully on Saturday afternoon and I am expecting them to restore the majority of their better players in a bid to win this tie before they have to visit Upton Park. With the additional FA Cup Third Round added to a busy January schedule, Manuel Pellegrini will want to build a big lead in this one so he can rest players in two weeks time for the second leg and I think City are certainly capable of that.

I don't think West Ham will want to roll over the way they did at the City Ground, but this is a hard ground to visit if you are a team in form and West Ham are certainly not that. I think they will be under pressure for the majority of the game and will be looking to contain Manchester City as much as possible so I do believe the majority of the action will be coming in the West Ham United half of the pitch.

The layers tend to agree with that, but I think the chance of Edin Dzeko scoring has been under-estimated. I expect the Bosnian will get the start in this game and he has scored in all 3 Capital One Cup ties that Manchester City have played this season with the likes of Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo rested at times.

Dzeko also scored in his last home game against Crystal Palace and I think the evens shot he scores again is too hard to ignore.

MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.80 Stan James (1 Unit)
Edin Dzeko Score Anytime @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January Update: 6-8, - 1.65 Units (23 Units Staked, - 7.17% Yield)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)