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Showing posts with label Day 7 Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day 7 Picks. Show all posts

Saturday, 5 September 2026

US Open Day 7 Tennis Picks 2026 (Saturday 5th September)

The US Open continues into the Fourth Round from Sunday, but the Third Round has to be completed before the second week begins.

There will be longer threads in the days ahead, but for now, only the selections will be placed for Day 7, which can be seen below.


MY PICKS; Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iva Jovic @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 17-11, + 6.26 Units (56 Units Staked, + 11.18% Yield)

Friday, 24 July 2026

World Matchplay Darts Day 7 Picks 2026 (Friday 24th July)

It is going to take a monumental effort for anyone to beat Luke Littler in the form the defending Champion has produced this week and you have to imagine he is going to be entering the remaining World Ranking events as a short price favourite.

We are not quite at the Phil Taylor level of dominating and that is largely down to what Luke Humphries can produce, but we are getting closer and closer to those kind of outright prices. The more Luke Littler continues to win the big TV tournaments, the more people are going to have him down as a strong favourite to win any event he enters.

This week there is no Humphries in the draw to try and slow down the momentum that Luke Littler has picked up at major events- his record in longer format matches is quite simply ridiculous and Littler is going to be a big favourite to win a third straight World Championship later in the year and into the early part of 2027.

On Friday we will be a step closer to seeing who may eventually be standing opposed to Luke Littler in any Final as the bottom half as the two Quarter Final matches scheduled.

Both have a huge amount of potential on paper, but darts are still played up on a stage and it is all about which of the players can hold themselves together the best on the night.

The one disadvantage for those in the bottom half is that there are no more rest days between matches and that does mean a bit more pressure to avoid being dragged into a slog of a contest to drain energy ahead of the weekend.


Ross Smith-Gerwyn Price both over 7.5 180s & 1+ 100+ checkout: It was Ross Smith standing behind Cameron Menzies and helping his fellow professional out when the Scot fainted and felt very ill in the Second Round.

Ultimately that led to a withdrawal and Smith made it through to the Quarter Final after playing just three Legs.

He had shown he was feeling pretty good having thrown three maximums in that time on the stage, but this is going to be a different test for Ross Smith in the last eight. This time Ross Smith may feel like the underdog and under some pressure to deliver the big scoring to try and stay with Gerwyn Price in what is only the second meeting in two years.

Of course Ross Smith should take a lot of confidence from the fact that he beat Gerwyn Price 11-9 here two years ago, but he is going to have to be better for longer in this Quarter Final format.

Ross Smith can do that and he is very capable of delivering at least eight maximums and one big checkout during the course of this match.

At the same time, Ross Smith will be well aware that the Gerwyn Price that crushed Rob Cross in the Second Round looked to be in much better form than the one that scraped through the First Round against Martin Schindler.

The scoring was much better in the Second Round and Gerwyn Price also showed composure with his doubles and that is why he is set as the favourite in this match.

However, it is expected to be a close one with the sole meeting this year ending in a Price 8-6 win on the European Tour as he picked up another title. He can match those numbers that are expected of Ross Smith in what is expected to be a competitive match right to the end and one in which we are focusing on the stats rather than trying to pick a winner.


Gian van Veen 2+ 100+ checkouts & over 26.5 total legs v James Wade: These two players produced a very good Quarter Final at the World Matchplay twelve months ago, which was eventually won 16-13 by James Wade, but Gian van Veen will feel he was the better player on the day.

After rallying to beat Wessel Nijman, Gian van Veen will be a slight favourite to get the better of James Wade in the 2026 Quarter Final, although the Dutchman will be aware that he needs to lift his level.

Recent weeks has seen the form fluctuate and that will not get the job done against someone like James Wade who is playing some top class darts.

Despite what he may have said himself, James Wade put together a really good performance to see off Ryan Searle in the Second Round and averaged just shy of triple digits. That is a level that will make things very difficult for any player, barring perhaps Luke Littler, and James Wade has always enjoyed playing at this venue and at this tournament.

Nothing will come easy for either player, but the expectation is that Gian van Veen is going to have to continue to find some big finishes to keep himself pushing forward in this Quarter Final.

He has five 100+ checkouts already in the tournament and the combination finishing remains a real strength for Gian van Veen.

James Wade is never going to go away easily and especially not at this tournament so we should see both players reach at least eleven Legs each and putting this selection together does offer up a decent price without having to back either player to win in what should be another close, competitive Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Ross Smith-Gerwyn Price Both Over 7.5 180s & 1+ 100+ Checkout @ 2.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Gian van Veen 2+ 100+ Checkouts & Over 26.5 Total Legs @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Matchplay: 10-13, - 1.80 Units (23 Units Staked, - 7.82% Yield)

Sunday, 5 July 2026

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Sunday 5th July)

Day 6 proved to be a day of upsets in the Ladies Tournament at Wimbledon as the top two Seeds in the bottom half of the draw were both eliminated, including defending Champion Iga Swiatek.

A surprising Finalist at another Grand Slam looks set to emerge, but Day 7 is the beginning of the second week and there is plenty more tennis to be played.

The top half of the Ladies Tournament looks highly competitive and the different combinations for the Quarter Final matches on Day 9 all look potentially very attractive.

It is a tough day to make Picks from the four matches to be played in the Ladies Fourth Round and it would not be a surprise if two favourites and two underdogs are able to fight through.

We do have two big favourites in the Mens Tournament with Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic remaining on collision course, but there are others still performing at Wimbledon who will believe they can find a way to earn the title. The Day 7 Fourth Round matches should be fun to watch and the fans in attendance on what was formerly Middle Sunday should be in for a treat.


Jannik Sinner - 9.5 games v Shintaro Mochizuki: He has already made history at Wimbledon before when Shintaro Mochizuki became the first Japanese player to win a Boys Single Title and so there is some comfort on the grass court. However, the move onto the main Tour has been hugely challenging for the 23 year old who is the World Number 151, but Grand Slam events have a tendency to throw up those storylines that will capture the imagination of Tennis fans.

This is one of those stories- despite winning that Boys Title here in 2019, Shintaro Mochizuki has struggled to impose himself on the main Tour, even on the grass. Strong runs at Challenger events suggested Mochizuki had found his level, while prior to the Wimbledon Qualifiers beginning, Shintaro Mochizuki had been beaten in matches by players Ranked Number 103, 196 and 806.

Three Qualifying wins earned Shintaro Mochizuki the right to take part in the main draw at Wimbledon for the second year in a row, but those wins were against players Ranked closer to 200 than the top 100, while he needed five sets to earn the way past the final opponent.

Shintaro Mochizuki was given a kind First Round draw, but he has grown in his time on the court and the wins over Ethan Quinn and Rafael Jodar are much more respectable. Naomi Osaka has been watching on from the player's box and Mochizuki is playing with a freedom that could make him dangerous.

The layers certainly do not feel that is the case with this line set for this Fourth Round match as Shintaro Mochizuki prepares to take on the World Number 1, and defending Champion, Jannik Sinner.

It has not been the most convincing tournament as far as Jannik Sinner has been concerned, but he will be pleased to have gotten through the first week without too many more dramas after needing five sets to win the opening match. Back to back straight sets wins will have eased the concerns around the World Number 1, while the numbers have improved Round to Round and that suggests this is a player peaking towards next weekend.

He will be massively encouraged by the serving numbers that Shintaro Mochizuki put on the board in the win over Rafael Jodar and that was against an opponent who is not nearly as accomplished on the grass as Jannik Sinner.

Covering will be a test, but this feels like a match that Jannik Sinner could control more and more the longer the players are out there and it could end up being reflected on the final scoreboard. After a competitive opening, Jannik Sinner could roll through the gears and keep his opponent under pressure on the return and it may end up leading to a 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 kind of victory and so backing the World Number 1 to cover this big line is the play.


Hubert Hurkacz-Jan-Lennard Struff over 40.5 games: Since reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2021, Hubert Hurkacz had failed to make the Third Round twice in three visits and reached the Fourth Round once.

He is back in that spot on Day 7 of the 2026 tournament and Hubert Hurkacz has a big opportunity to get back into the last eight of this Grand Slam and reverse what has been a worrying trend regarding the slipping of the World Ranking over the last couple of years. Some of that has been down to injury, but Hubert Hurkacz has struggled to get back to the kind of level that had taken him into the top six of the World Rankings just two years ago.

A 14-15 overall record over the last twelve months ahead of this Grand Slam meant there was little expectation on Hubert Hurkacz, but he has made short work of the competition. Beating Casper Ruud in four sets is not the upset the Seeding would suggest, not on a grass court, but Hurkacz has a straight sets win over Sebastian Ofner and most impressive is the four set win over Tommy Paul to reach the second week.

Standing across the net is Jan-Lennard Struff, who looked to be coming to the back end of his career, and who at 36 years old will not have a better chance to get back into a main event spot.

Jan-Lennard Struff has been playing main draw Grand Slam events since 2013, but he has yet to reach the Quarter Final of any of those and this will be just the fifth time that the German has reached the second week of any Slam.

His run here at Wimbledon means this Slam has joined the French Open as the one that Jan-Lennard Struff has had the most success and he has battled and clawed throughout the first week. The upset over Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round caught the attention, although the straight sets win does not tell the tale of the story as Jan-Lennard Struff recovered from breaks of serve in each of the sets played.

Serving well is going to be huge for both players and the edge here is with Hubert Hurkacz who should be fresher and able to deliver the big serves more often and for longer than Jan-Lennard Struff. However, the latter can push through to tie-breakers and there is every chance that this is going to be a match that needs at least four sets with both players sensing the opportunity, which means also dealing with the pressure that comes with a sense of expectation.

Previous matches between the players have tended to be very competitive and that looks like being the case on Sunday in this Fourth Round contest.


Felix Auger Aliassime-Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Pick: There are a couple of Boys Champions out on the courts at the start of the second week at the 2026 Wimbledon and both are looking to make a big statement in the main draw.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been in really good form in the warm up events, but this is a player who has regularly come up short at big moments in Grand Slam tournaments. He has won seven matches in a row on the grass and the Spaniard has yet to drop a set at Wimbledon, which will have given Alejandro Davidovich Fokina a huge boost in confidence as he looks to push through to just his second Quarter Final at Grand Slam level.

Next up is the toughest test Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will have faced at Wimbledon when taking on Felix Auger Aliassime who is the World Number 4 and someone who is looking to remind himself that he is capable of having a big impact at a Grand Slam.

After losing at the French Open in the Quarter Final, Felix Auger Aliassime was very critical of his own level and wondered aloud whether he was getting the best out of himself.

With that in mind, credit has to be given to the Canadian for digging in and putting in another strong Grand Slam showing, while Felix Auger Aliassime reached the Quarter Final in Halle before winning all three matches here in straight sets. The serve is working well, but Felix Auger Aliassime has found a confidence in his return and that makes him a really dangerous player on this surface, even if he is behind the likes of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic in any favourite list.

Felix Auger Aliassime had won the first four pro matches between these players, but the most recent was played at the Australian Open in 2025 and it was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who came from 2-0 behind to win in five. One other Grand Slam meeting also took place at Melbourne Park, but that time it was Auger Aliassime who came through in four incredibly competitive sets.

Both players have shown the kind of form that it would be a real disappointment for themselves, and the team, if this match is not competitive enough to see both players win a set. With the kind of serving that can be displayed, there is every chance that four sets could be all that is needed for the players to surpass this total games line, but there is a feeling that both Felix Auger Aliassime and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are playing with the kind of confidence and belief that forces a fifth set to be required to produce a 2026 Wimbledon Quarter Finalist.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Roman Safiullon: In January 2024, then 26 year old Roman Safiullon entered the top 40 of the World Rankings and looked like he had finally worked out how best to deal with the strain of the ATP Tour.

Later that year Roman Safiullon was beaten twice by Novak Djokovic and that served as a reminder of how far the former still had to go if he was going to take the next step in his career.

Several months before reaching his career best World Ranking mark, Roman Safiullon had reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but that is by far and away his best Grand Slam run and it has been a struggle since then at this level. In fact this is only the second time he has reached the second week of any Grand Slam, while Roman Safiullon entered this tournament outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings as injuries took their toll on his career.

The World Number 132 admitted that he thought about packing in the career as those injuries failed to dissipate, but Roman Safiullon worked his way through three Qualifying Rounds before winning three matches in the main draw that includes upsetting Seeds Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca.

Those will have given him confidence, but it was notable that Roman Safiullon admitted that Novak Djokovic had given him many problems in previous matches when talking about a potential opponent.

Thanks to a four set win, Novak Djokovic is the official Fourth Round opponent and this is a player that is now leaning on his experience much more than he ever did. Novak Djokovic is not operating at the level he once did, but aura is one of the last things to fade and this is a player who is very comfortable on the grass courts and much more than the majority of players on the Tour.

Of course he will respect the results Roman Safiullon has had here in the past, and the fact that the grass is not a surface that intimidates the lower Ranked player.

However, Novak Djokovic has enjoyed this match up previously and he may feel he can make more of an impact on the return than he did in the Third Round, which is going to be important to make the former seven time Champion just feel he can get his rhythm into the match.

In the previous Quarter Final appearance here in 2023, Roman Safiullon did take a set from Jannik Sinner before going down to a four set loss, and something similar in this Fourth Round match could allow Novak Djokovic to eventually pull clear of this handicap mark set. 

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Jan-Lennard Struff Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime-Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Over 41.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 30-25, - 1.94 Units (108 Units Staked, - 1.79% Yield)

Saturday, 30 May 2026

French Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Saturday 30th May)

Jannik Sinner was beaten and Carlos Alcaraz never made it to Paris and so many Novak Djokovic fans would have been hoping the quest to win a 25th Grand Slam title would end in Paris over the next several days.

At 2-0 ahead in the Third Round, all seemed to be going to plan.

However, Jose Fonseca was able to fight back and outlast the 39 year old and become just the second player to ever beat Novak Djokovic from that position.

Over the next few days and then weeks into Wimbledon, fans will question whether Novak Djokovic will ever have a better chance to win another Grand Slam- even Djokovic has to be wondering if there is enough left in the tank to put together a seven match winning run to do that.

Despite the loss of some big names, the French Open will continue moving forward and the first week of the tournament officially comes to a conclusion on Saturday when the Third Round is completed.

There are some quality players looking to cement their own berths into the second week of this Grand Slam, but they will have to manage what is forecasted to be the one last day of challenging hot conditions. Rain is expected in Paris on Saturday evening and that is going to cool things down, although the roof on the main show court at Roland Garros could be getting significant use over the next several days.


Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: After seeing the likes of Elena Rybakina and Jannik Sinner dumped out of the French Open before the end of the first week, Aryna Sabalenka and her fans will be happy with the relatively comfortable progress being made.

The wins have not stood out, but they have seen Aryna Sabalenka work herself into the matches and then go through the gears in the second set and the World Number 1 should not have been overly taxed through two Rounds. The match up in this Third Round contest is one that should appeal to Aryna Sabalenka and she has been set as a big favourite, which is not going to be a surprise to anyone.

It has been just shy of two years since Aryna Sabalenka last faced Daria Kasatkina on the Tour, but the former has won seven of the previous seven matches, including the last four in a row. Those have been one-sided wins, although Daria Kasatkina may feel her best chances of upsetting the top Seed will be on a clay court.

She represents Australia these days and at 29 years old, it does feel like Daria Kasatkina's best days are behind her- the World Ranking reflects that with Kasatkina outside of the top 32 having been a top 20 Ranked player twelves month ago.

Over the last twelve months on all surfaces, Daria Kasatkina holds a 20-18 record and that is down to the two wins she has produced at the French Open. Beating opponents Ranked 66 and 218 is not going to prepare Kasatkina for the challenge of facing the very best player on the Tour, while she holds a 6-4 record on the hard courts when facing top 100 Ranked players this season.

Only one of those players has been Ranked inside the top 20 and Daria Kasatkina will be well aware that she is going to have to play some of her best tennis in recent times to offer up a challenge to Aryna Sabalenka.

It should be noted that Aryna Sabalenka had limited clay court preparation ahead of the French Open this season, but that match up against Daria Kasatkina should give the top Seed the confidence to roll through this Third Round match.

Aryna Sabalenka has broken the Daria Kasatkina serve at least four times in each of the last eight matches played against one another and there is a vulnerability to that part of the latter's tennis.

Both previous clay court matches have been won by Aryna Sabalenka too, including once here at Roland Garros, while the heat of Paris should make the Belarusian's serve a key difference between the players.


Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Diane Parry: There is no telling how things may have changed within a match if Julia Grabher was fully healthy, but that is not Amanda Anisimova's issue and she has made it through to the Third Round at the French Open having needed to win just three sets.

After missing the entirety of the clay court season, there will be a concern that Amanda Anisimova will be undercooked the longer this tournament goes on. That is especially the concern if the American is not having to win full matches to progress, although Amanda Anisimova has previously enjoyed enough positive runs at the French Open to feel very confident in her ability.

It probably helps that Amanda Anisimova is moving through a pretty comfortable portion of the draw.

Next up there will be the challenge of facing a home player on what can be rowdy French Open courts, but Amanda Anisimova is rightly set as the favourite she goes up against Diane Parry in the Third Round at Roland Garros.

Diane Parry had shown little form on the clay courts with four straight defeats on the red dirt, but things turned around in Paris, albeit at a 125 level event played earlier in the month. She won the title there and looks to have found some confidence, despite a Second Round exit in Strasbourg last week.

The tournament could have been over for Diane Parry in the First Round when she failed to win a game in the first set against Anhelina Kalinina, but the confidence earned over the last three weeks perhaps turn that match back around. A much more routine win was produced in the Second Round against a Seeded American, but Diane Parry will know that Amanda Anisimova brings a different level of test.

The key for the World Number 92 is going to be serving well and seeing if she can put some pressure on Amanda Anisimova.

However, that would also need Diane Parry to pick up her level on the return and this Third Round match could be one in which Amanda Anisimova is able to turn up the heat to eventually overwhelm the home player.

Covering will be a test, but Amanda Anisimova can find the Breaks needed to edge past this number.


Flavio Cobolli - 1.5 sets v Learner Tien: The upset of the tournament in the Second Round saw Jannik Sinner leaving the French Open draw and that has opened up the top half of the Men's draw at this Grand Slam.

Italians will be very disappointed that the World Number 1 has exited before the start of the second week, but Jannik Sinner's pain could be his compatriot's gain- Flavio Cobolli is the second highest Seed left in the top half of the draw and he has made comfortable progress through the first couple of Rounds.

Flavio Cobolli has not dropped a set in two wins in Paris, but neither player he has beaten have been Ranked higher than Number 92 and that means this is a significant step upwards in the Third Round.

Pressure will have intensified on all in the top half knowing that a huge opportunity has opened up to reach a Grand Slam Final and that is something that Flavio Cobolli will have to deal with. Last year he reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but the clay courts should be a more comfortable surface, although Cobolli has to respect the talent of the player standing on the other side of the net.

In the sole previous match between these players, it was Learner Tien who came through very comfortably, but that was a match played on the clay courts.

Learner Tien did win the title in Geneva in the week leading up to the French Open, and he has now won six clay court matches in succession having previously been just 3-3 on the surface in 2026. Winning the title in Geneva really came out of left field and before this run of wins, Learner Tien had been just 8-14 in clay court matches in his career and that suggests Flavio Cobolli should have perhaps been set as a harder favourite.

In the Second Round, Learner Tien needed five sets and over four hours on the court and that is a potential factor for a player who did not take the week away from action directly before this Grand Slam tournament began. In matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents, Tien had been 1-6 before the run in Geneva when he won three such matches, but he is going to have to dig pretty deep to beat Flavio Cobolli on this surface.

There is so much to like about the way Learner Tien approaches his tennis, but it is Flavio Cobolli who has the edge when it comes to the serving numbers and that could be key.

The lower Ranked player has shown a bit more resiliency in the return, but Flavio Cobolli should be the fresher player on the court and that can see him find a way to win this one, most likely in four sets.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Diana Shnaider - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Flavio Cobolli - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Raphael Collignon - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

French Open Update: 14-10, + 2.88 Units (46 Units Staked, + 6.26% Yield)

Monday, 23 March 2026

Miami Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Monday 23rd March)


The Miami Masters continues at a pace on Monday with the entire WTA Fourth Round scheduled to be played alongside the remaining half of the ATP Third Round matches.

We are reaching the business end of the tournaments at a rapid pace and the upset of Carlos Alcaraz in the Third Round will have opened the door for a surprising player to make it through to the Final here and pick up some very valuable Ranking Points.

For the World Number 1, the early exit offers him a chance to go home and reset ahead of the clay court season beginning in a couple of weeks time, but he will be disappointed.

The WTA event looks largely intact going into the latter stages of that event, and it should mean an interesting end to the first half of the hard court season next weekend.


The Tennis Picks at Miami have bounced back from the poor Indian Wells returns, but there is still a long week of work to get through before the final totals will be placed in the books.

Focus is key and keeping things as tight as possible with the selection criteria.

On Day 7, time has been a factor and so only the selections will be posted below without the full analysis that has accompanied those for much of the 2026 season.


MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 12-5, + 6.67 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.69% Yield)

Tuesday, 10 March 2026

Indian Wells Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 10th March)

It has been an inconsistent opening week as the Tennis Picks have taken one step forwards and then two steps back, but that is just the nature of the Tour at times.

There have been moments when it has looked like there has been some momentum behind the selections, but Madison Keys failed to build on a 6-2 first set in losing her match on Monday evening and that meant another 2-2 day.

Tuesday looks a much more difficult day with the matches being competitively priced, but there are two more Picks from the day, which can be read below.


Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: Don't expect this to be a match filled with rallies considering the serving powers of both Arthur Fils and Felix Auger Aliassime.

That proved to be the difference in favour of Felix Auger Aliassime when he beat the Frenchman in Montpellier last month, although that was also a match played on an indoor hard court. Playing in outdoor conditions is always going to be a little different and especially in a tournament like the one held in Indian Wells where it can be that much more challenging, although Auger Aliassime is playing with enough confidence to back up that previous win over this opponent.

In that Quarter Final match last month, Felix Auger Aliassime dominated behind serve and it ended up putting pressure on Arthur Fils to respond.

Felix Auger Aliassime won 90% of service points played compared with Arthur Fils at 58% and the higher Ranked player will be confident in having the edge again.

Things will feel a little different as that event in Montpellier was the first Arthur Fils was competing in this season, but he has since reached the Final of an ATP 500 event held in Doha and the World Number 32 has impressed in his two wins in Indian Wells.

Confidence can be such a big factor and Arthur Fils is playing with a lot of that right now- his serve is still an important weapon and Fils is also showing plenty of athleticism around the court on his return, although that aspect of his tennis going to be severely tested by Felix Auger Aliassime.

The first month of the season was massively disappointing for Felix Auger Aliassime and included a First Round loss in Melbourne, but he has been flying since then.

Winning the title in Montpellier was followed by a run to the Final in Rotterdam and Semi Final in Dubai and the Canadian has been serving very well.

However, that has always been a strength of the Auger Aliassime game and it is the 18% Break percentage that actually stands out the most- he has not always been the best return player on the hard courts, but Felix Auger Aliassime is applying pressure on that side of the net and it may be a key reason that he can edge past Arthur Fils and most likely in straight sets.

He has needed to go three sets in both wins in Indian Wells, but there has been little wrong with the serve and Felix Auger Aliassime has continued to find the Breaks that he has needed and he can do something similar in this Fourth Round match up.


Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Joao Fonseca: There are some huge expectations on the shoulders of 19 year old Brazilian Joao Fonseca, but that has perhaps contributed to the player struggling to have the kind of impact people may have wanted to see from him.

Third Round runs at the French Open and Wimbledon helped push him close to the top 20 of the World Rankings at the end of the 2025 season, but Joao Fonseca arrived at Indian Wells as the World Number 35.

The numbers being produced over the last twelve months overall have been very solid and shows the growing presence around this player, but there has been little hard court action taken in this season.

With that said, Joao Fonseca has done very well to win three matches here and move through to this big Fourth Round match.

Joao Fonseca showed tremendous character to do just enough to edge past Karen Khachanov in the Second Round, but was so much more impressive in crushing Tommy Paul for the loss of five games last time out. In that win, Fonseca backed up his serve by keeping the home player under pressure on the return, but everyone around the teenager will be reminding him of the step up in level he will be facing in the Fourth Round.

That is because the Brazilian will be playing the World Number 2 and one of the top hard court players in the world in Jannik Sinner.

The latter has only played a couple of tournaments so far this season and will have been disappointed to have lost in the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final in Doha. That doesn't mean the Jannik Sinner numbers have dipped with him continuing to produce at an exceptionally high level on the hard courts, but he will be looking to build up some momentum.

Over the next couple of months, Sinner has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points and will be expecting to push up a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz, but he will also want to win some titles and look to get something positive going ahead of the clay court season.

Jannik Sinner has looked a man on a mission with his two very convincing wins to open his time at Indian Wells and he did reach the Semi Final in his last appearance at this tournament two years ago.

He will certainly feel he serves well enough to contain much of the threat that will be posed by the youngster on the other side of the net, and Jannik Sinner exerts plenty of pressure on the return.

It means Joao Fonseca will have to serve really well to keep this one competitive and there are still levels for the Brazilian to develop to really get into a position to compete with the top two players on the Tour.

There is little doubt that Fonseca can have successes for a while, but maintaining the level needed to beat Jannik Sinner is going to be very difficult to achieve. One of the sets will be competitive, but it also would not be a big surprise if there is a period when the World Number 2 is able to string the games together and that can push Jannik Sinner into a position to cover the wide line set for the match.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 3.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)

Friday, 23 January 2026

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Saturday 24th January)

If it wasn't for a couple of late selections just missing the cover at the end of Day 6, it could have been a truly special day for the Tennis Picks made.

Earlier in the day, Daniil Medvedev had come through in five sets and still managed to cover a big spread, so there was some fortune attached, but unfortunately Tommy Paul was not able to complete a big win that he was on course to achieving when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina withdrew after winning two games in two sets.

The Aryna Sabalenka pick looked unlikely to win very early on as she got herself into a trickier match than it should have been, but overall you can never complain when adding more positive numbers to the totals.

On Saturday there is a heatwave set to hit Melbourne, one that has seen the organisers make a decision to move the starting time to an hour earlier than normal so they can get players on and off the court and leave the middle of the day as empty as possible.

It could mean a late night developing as the Third Round comes to a conclusion, but the safety of the participants and the fans has to be high on the list of priorities and the decision made by the Australian Open to try and get matches through before the hottest part of the day is the right one.

Heat is a factor that can change the outlook of any match as we simply don't know how all players will react to what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.

This has not been the case so far at the tournament, but also means the incoming heatwave is going to have a serious impact and fatiguing issues can take hold.

Hopefully the players picked can find a way to keep battling through those tough moments.


Day 7 is not nearly as loaded with selections as the previous day, but there remain some solid plays on the card and those can be read below.

There is still some consisderable work to get through if this 2026 season is going to have the strong platform that has been set, especially with the second week yet to get underway at the opening Grand Slam of the season.


Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A little over a decade ago, the top of the ATP Tour was dominated by the 'Big Four', which then included Andy Murray alongside the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

That era is now known as the 'Big Three' with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic separating from the pack, but another player who had every right to be spoken alongside the very best on the Tour at that time is Stan Wawrinka.

He may not have reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but Wawrinka won Grand Slam titles at the other three Majors, including at the 2014 Australian Open. He reached the Semi Final on two other occasions in Melbourne, but the former World Number 3 is two months from celebrating his 41st birthday and Stan Wawrinka has announced he will retire at the end of the 2026 season.

With that in mind, Wawrinka was awarded a Wild Card into the main draw at the Australian Open on his retirement tour, but it is clear that the Swiss player is not ready to go quietly.

He came through in four sets in the First Round and then needed to go the full five sets and spend over four and a half hours on the court to win in the Second Round. Neither match was against an opponent Ranked higher than Number 92 and even a day of rest may not be enough for a 40 year old body to recover as it once did.

So not only does Stan Wawrinka have to overcome fatigue and physical ailments in the Third Round, but he is also taking on World Number 9 Taylor Fritz who has made comfortable progression through the first couple of Rounds here.

Taylor Fritz does not have the same storied history at Grand Slam level compared with his veteran opponent, but the American is expected to have a lot more to give and he should be able to wear down the much older opponent.

He has reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne before, but the overall record at the Australian Open is disappointing for Taylor Fritz considering his qualities on the hard courts. One of the main reasons has been a relatively poor return game, but this match up may not be where that aspect of his tennis is exposed, especially if Wawrinka is struggling with his fitness.

Taylor Fritz should be able to contain much of the threat from the other side of the court behind his serve and it should be noted that the return numbers are significantly better against lower Ranked opponents.

Over the last twelve months, the American has suffered a couple of disappointing defeats on the hard courts, but in the main he has tended to get the better of those he will be expected to beat.

You would think twice about this spread if it was a First Round match, but Stan Wawrinka has already invested so much into the tournament that you have to feel he is worn down and cannot keep up on the scoreboard.

He will not want his last memory of playing on the courts in Melbourne to be a retirement mid-match so you have to believe Stan Wawrinka will bite down and try and finish the contest, even if he is hurting and the last set could be where Taylor Fritz can pull away for the win and cover.

Over the last year, Stan Wawrinka has only played four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface and he has lost each one, while the service numbers have been severely impacted in those defeats. Even a relatively limited return player like Taylor Fritz should be able to get himself into rallies to wear down the veteran and come through with a solid win.


Jakub Mensik - 1.5 sets v Ethan Quinn: Two young players meet in the Australian Open Third Round on Day 7 of the tournament, but there is no doubting that Jakub Mensik is significantly further along in his development than Ethan Quinn.

This is made simple by the difference in World Ranking- the 20 year old Mensik is the World Number 17 and has won a title in Auckland this season, while his opponent is 21 and the World Number 80 who has failed to Qualify in Brisbane before an opening Round defeat in Adelaide.

However, they are in the same position on Saturday in this Third Round match with the opportunity to reach the second week of a Grand Slam a big boost to the career, especially at this early stage for both.

Neither has yet to play in double digit main draws at Grand Slam level and so there is some pressure on both with the chance to reach the Fourth Round for the first time. In reality both are going to feel this is a winnable match, although the stronger claims are certainly on the side of the higher Ranked player.

After coming through in a fifth set decider in the First Round, Jakub Mensik looked very comfortable in the Second Round.

He will have noted the relative ease in which Ethan Quinn has progressed, including in an upset over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round, but Mensik will believe his serve gives him a big edge in this contest.

The serve is going to be important on both sides of the net, but Ethan Quinn has struggled to impose that shot on top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months. He has been in good form in this tournament with some suggesting conditions are quick in Melbourne, but Quinn will need to bridge a gap to a player that has very strong serving numbers on the hard courts in 2025.

Jakub Mensik is young though and he was upset in the Second Round at the US Open by a player Ranked way outside the top 100.

On that day he failed to deal with the pressurised moments when the big points came around, but Mensik will take plenty of confidence from the fact he beat Ethan Quinn twice last year and once on the hard courts.

In those two meetings, Jakub Mensik won 65% of service points played compared with Ethan Quinn's 57% mark and that led to a significant advantage of games being held. The hard court meeting in Cincinnati saw Jakub Mensik avoid giving up a single Break Point and you just have to favour the player from Czechia to come through at clutch times in this contest.

There is so much more to come from Ethan Quinn, which makes him dangerous, but at this current stage of their respective developments, Jakub Mensik can come through in three or four sets.


Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: All credit should be given to another veteran continuing to fight his way through the Tour after Marin Cilic made it through to the Third Round at the 2026 Australian Open.

He was a very solid winner in the Second Round when set as the underdog, but Marin Cilic may need to find another gear if he is going to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent and earn a spot in the second week of the tournament.

The serve remains a big weapon for Marin Cilic, although it is a weapon that becomes harder and harder to impose on the better quality of opponent he faces. While his overall numbers in 2025 on the hard courts saw the Croatian hold 85% of service games played, those numbers dip over the last twelve months to 81% when only factoring in matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.

However, it is the struggles on the return in those six matches that have really caught the eye and makes this a challenging Third Round match for the 37 year old.

Casper Ruud has played in three Grand Slam Finals, including at the 2022 US Open, but his performances at the Australian Open and US Open tournaments since then have been disappointing. The World Number 13 has only reached the second week at either of the Grand Slam tournaments played on hard courts once since reaching the Final in New York City and that despite his overall numbers on the surface improving in the last couple of years.

Two straight sets wins in Melbourne will have given Ruud confidence and his serve is a big weapon on this surface.

He does have one eye on news from back home where his wife is expecting to give birth at any time and Casper Ruud has stated that he will withdraw from the tournament if that happens over the next few days. This has not been a distraction though and instead the Norwegian is using it as motivation, much like Andy Murray once did, which makes Casper Ruud dangerous.

Unlike the very top names on the Tour, Casper Ruud can be guilty of losing in an upset or two and that has happened on the hard courts over the last twelve months, albeit not all that often.

He was beaten by an opponent Ranked outside the top 100 at the US Open a few months ago, but Ruud has won nine of ten matches against players outside of the top 50 on this surface since then. That includes a comfortable win in the First Round and Casper Ruud is expected to get the better of Marin Cilic on Saturday.

In four previous matches on the Tour, Casper Ruud has beaten the veteran each time, including on the hard courts of Stockholm in October.

The scoreline looks competitive, but Casper Ruud dominated the serving numbers and that has been the case in all four meetings against Marin Cilic.

You can never dismiss the veteran from giving the World Number 13 something to think about as a former Finalist in Melbourne, but Casper Ruud should have enough to avoid dropping two or more sets as he progresses to the Fourth Round here for just the second time in his career.


Karen Khachanov - 5.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The Italian has moved up into the top 30 of the World Rankings and that is partly down to a couple of solid, if unspectacular runs at the last couple of Grand Slam tournaments.

In the main, Luciano Darderi has built his World Ranking on strong clay court results, but it has been a tougher task on the hard courts.

Last year he finished with a 6-15 record on this surface, but Luciano Darderi did reach the Third Round at the US Open and he has done the same at the Australian Open, which suggests he may be getting to grips on how to produce on the hard courts.

However, it remains hard to ignore the fact that Darderi has a 9-29 record on the hard courts prior to his two wins in Melbourne.

Fans of the Italian will state that he is 2-4 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Luciano Darderi may feel he can play with more freedom when having 'nothing to lose'. Despite the record, the numbers have not been very favourable though and Darderi is going to be an underdog when facing top 20 Ranked Karen Khachanov, who is very happy when playing on this surface.

The 29 year old may have needed five sets to come through his opening match in Melbourne, but Karen Khachanov had been handed a tough draw. There was little concern in the Second Round win and that should mean Khachanov has plenty in the tank as he prepares to reach the second week in Melbourne for the third time in four years.

His serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Karen Khachanov and he will need to serve well if he is going to win this match.

Karen Khachanov has been on the Tour for some time, but he should be comfortable with his ability on the surface against someone who is still getting to complete grips with top quality tennis on the hard courts.

The Russian has produced decent numbers when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents, and winning 68% of service points in those matches on the hard courts and backing that up with breaks in 25% of return games played gives Karen Khachanov a significant edge.

It is perhaps a surprise that Karen Khachanov has been asked to cover a larger spread than the one he was faced in the Second Round, but the strength of that win is a contributory factor.

However, the underlying feeling is that Khachanov has the hard court know-how to find a way to cover even if he needs four sets to win the match.


Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Maddison Inglis: This is not the first time that Australian Maddison Inglis has made it through to the Third Round of her home Grand Slam, but in 2022 she was awarded a Wild Card into the tournament.

Four years later, Maddison Inglis entered the Qualifying Rounds for the Australian Open, as has been the case in each of the last three seasons.

The last couple of years have ended in the final Round of Qualifying, but Inglis battled through to the main draw at this event and has continued to dig in to earn another run to the Third Round. This is going to help improve the World Ranking, which currently sits at Number 168, and the Australian has already beaten four players Ranked higher than herself to reach the Third Round.

However, none of the wins have been against anyone Ranked higher than Number 48 and this time Maddison Inglis is taking on a two time former Champion of this event.

Naomi Osaka has not been at her best in the first couple of Rounds, but she has found a way to move through the draw and that is an improvement on some of the early results she had when returning to the Tour. There is certainly more belief within the World Number 17, although Osaka may have to have found a way to ignore the criticisms that have been aimed at her for some of the on-court behaviour in the win over Sorana Cirstea.

She has apologised for what some believed to be gamesmanship and the challenge for Naomi Osaka is remaining focused and not worrying too much about what others may think.

This challenge only increases considering this is likely to be a match played in an atmosphere where the home player is going to be loudly backed by the crowd.

If she can lock in, Naomi Osaka should have too much for an opponent who had a career 1-11 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts before beating Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.

In eight of those eleven defeats, Maddison Inglis would not have won enough games to get within the spread set for this Third Round match.

Naomi Osaka does need to improve if she is going to have a serious impact at the business end of this tournament, but her current level is expected to be too much for the Australian.

Over the last twelve months, Osaka has won six of seven hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and four of those would have seen her cover the spread like this one.

The reality is that Naomi Osaka's level should be too much for a veteran in Maddison Inglis who will be well supported, but who has to find a number of gears to remain competitive.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-10, + 17.36 Units (66 Units Staked, + 26.30% Yield)

Saturday, 15 November 2025

ATP Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th November)

There have been a couple of really disappointing performances from players who will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles in 2026 and that has led to a couple of surprising names being able to make it through to the last four at the ATP Finals.

Most fans will still be expecting to see the top two players in the world compete for yet another title, but Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime are going to have something to say about that.


Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This Semi Final was set before the final Group matches were played on Friday, but it is Alex De Minaur who will have been able to earn a day of rest between matches.

After losing his opening two matches in the tournament, Alex De Minaur's hopes of progressing into the Semi Final was hanging by a thread going into Day 5 in Turin. He had no choice but to win in straight sets in his final match, but De Minaur still had to wait and hope Carlos Alcaraz would beat Lorenzo Musetti before knowing he would be tasked with heading out and playing again.

Alex De Minaur has to take encouragement out of the fact that his performances have improved in each of the three matches played- after losing in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, De Minaur had a chance to serve out the match against Lorenzo Musetti before losing in three sets and then ultimately beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to move through the Group.

Serving well is going to be really important against the World Number 2 and that has been something that has been challenging for Alex De Minaur when facing Jannik Sinner in the past.

It has also been the reason Alex De Minaur has lost all twelve matches played against the Italian.

All but one of those defeats have been on the hard courts, including in all three matches in 2025 and Jannik Sinner has won seven of the eight sets played between the players. Two of those wins earned by Jannik Sinner have been since the US Open and there is a massive advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player that is almost impossible to ignore.

Jannik Sinner has won 69% of the points played behind his serve compared with Alex De Minaur's 56% mark... This has led to Sinner holding in 91% of service games played compared with De Minaur doing the same in 63% of his own service games and these are big edges in favour of Jannik Sinner.

He was given a bit of an examination by Ben Shelton in the final Group match, but Jannik Sinner was largely in control and did not have to spend any additional time on the court.

This should all mean that the Italian is ready to reach another Final here in Turin and the World Number 2 may be able to do that in some style.


Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: After losing to Jannik Sinner and looking like he was suffering with some sort of calf injury, Felix Auger-Aliassime has performed really well to win back to back Group matches.

The battling display against Ben Shelton deserves a lot more respect than the win over Alexander Zverev merely because the American pushed Felix Auger-Aliassime really hard. This may have cracked lesser players, but the Canadian has continued producing at key times in the second half of the season and Auger-Aliassime is going to head into 2026 with a lot of confidence.

Everything in this Semi Final is about the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve as he bids to upset the World Number 1.

It has been a big weapon in the wins over Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, but Felix Auger-Aliassime struggled to impose himself on Jannik Sinner in the opening Group match. He may have learned from that, but Auger-Aliassime has not faced Carlos Alcaraz in sixteen months and the Spaniard is playing at a really solid level himself to secure that position heading into the 2026 season.

Three matches played and three wins on the board has given Carlos Alcaraz momentum as he looks to go forward and win the ATP Finals for the first time to continue to add to his increasing trophy collection.

Despite already being through to the Semi Final, Carlos Alcaraz produced his best performance in the tournament in the win over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday. That will further the momentum he has built up in the tournament and Alcaraz has to be pretty confident that much of this match will be played on his racquet, even when facing a very good server like Felix Auger-Aliassime.

There are just more ways for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match.

Covering the spread will not be easy and the World Number 1 may need to break serve at least three times to do that, but he has reached that total in all three of the matches played this week. The performance in the win over Taylor Fritz will give Carlos Alcaraz the confidence to deal with the World Number 8 and he has won each of the last four matches between the players.

We have seen Felix Auger-Aliassime produce high quality tennis when he has momentum and built up confidence- he is dangerous here having done that in back to back wins to join Jannik Sinner in the last four, but Carlos Alcaraz is a big challenge for the Canadian and that may show up on the final scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 7-4, + 1.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 11.64% Yield)

Friday, 7 November 2025

WTA Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 7th November)

There are two days left at the WTA Finals in Riyadh and four of the eight Singles players have been eliminated.

The final four all have their strengths and this is a good opportunity for someone to lay down a marker ahead of the Australian Open considering the lack of competitive tennis that is likely to be played by the very best players between now and Melbourne in mid-January.

The two Group Winners are favourites in the Semi Final, and they look most likely to come through, but nothing is ever that easy on the WTA Tour and both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka are going to have to be wary of the challenges that Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova will present.


Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The World Number 5 would have gone into her final Group match knowing a win would put her in a good position to reach the Semi Final here in Riyadh. However, Jessica Pegula may also have put herself under some pressure to win in straight sets to take away any drama while watching the other match and credit has to be given to the American for the strong win she put together.

Moving through to the WTA Finals last four as Runner Up means a Semi Final clash against Elena Rybakina who has looked like the player that won the title at Wimbledon back in 2022.

Six months later she reached the Australian Open Final, but you would perhaps be a little disappointed in not seeing Elena Rybakina compete at the business end of more Grand Slams since winning Wimbledon. Most would have anticipated her adding to that title, but she has failed to make the Quarter Final in any of the last five Grand Slams played and some of that has been down to off court issues.

Those look to be clearing up, even if some remain concerned about Rybakina's relationship with Coach Stefano Vukov.

The World Number 6 enjoyed a decent Asian swing to earn her spot in the WTA Finals and Elena Rybakina has won all three Group matches thanks to her immense serving.

Elena Rybakina has won at least 70% of service points played in each of the three matches here in Riyadh and that has put a lot of scoreboard pressure on her opponents. She has only dropped serve twice, which is no surprise considering how dominant Rybakina has been behind her opening delivery, and that has allowed the World Number 6 to play with some aggression on the return.

It is going to be challenging for Jessica Pegula to find her way into the return games, although she will take some heart from the way she returned against Aryna Sabalenka in the Group Stage. She managed to break serve four times against the World Number 1, although Jessica Pegula was kept under immense pressure on her own serve and that is expected to be the case here.

These two players met after the US Open in the Billy Jean King Cup and Elena Rybakina was the much stronger server in a straight sets win over Jessica Pegula.

The last time they met at the WTA Finals was at the end of the 2022 season and it was Pegula who got the better of that one, but you have to give Elena Rybakina the edge on the form produced this week.

Jessica Pegula controlled the match against Jasmine Paolini, but has won less than 60% of service points played against Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka and the likely service disparity between these two Semi Finalists is going to give the lower Ranked player the edge.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: The initial big breakthrough on the WTA Tour came back in 2019 when Amanda Anisimova was 17 years old and she reached the French Open Semi Final.

At the 2019 Australian Open, Amanda Anisimova upset Aryna Sabalenka and she won the first four meetings between the players and all while being Ranked outside the top 30.

After taking some time away from the Tour to just unburden herself, Amanda Anisimova has returned with real ambitions to fulfil the obvious potential she had shown in her development and early years as a professional. Reaching back to back Grand Slam Finals will give the American something to build upon in 2026 and Amanda Anisimova is playing with confidence having beaten Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in her last two Group matches here to reach the Semi Final in her maiden appearance at the WTA Finals.

One of the wins on the way to reached the Wimbledon Final was against Aryna Sabalenka, but the World Number 1 earned revenge over Amanda Anisimova by beating her in the US Open Final in September.

Aryna Sabalenka also beat Anisimova in the French Open Fourth Round and she has now won four of the last six matches against the World Number 4.

The Belarusian has won all three matches at the WTA Finals, but it still feels like there is room for improvement in her level of performance.

She has served herself out of some tough situations, but Aryna Sabalenka will want to just get a bit more out of that shot to try and keep herself out of pressurised situations. Completely erasing those against someone like Amanda Anisimova is not likely, but Sabalenka has to take some heart out of the way Elena Rybakina got the better of this opponent in the Group Stage and feel she can at least reach a similar level.

Amanda Anisimova has been improving her serving numbers in each of the matches played in the tournament, which is perhaps partly down to becoming accustomed to the conditions.

However, it is the World Number 1 who has had the superior consistency on the return and that was the case when these two players met in the US Open Final.

There is so much to like about the Amanda Anisimova game and a slight improvement in 2026 will lead to Grand Slam titles on her current trajectory.

She has beaten Sabalenka in a big moment at Wimbledon, but the top Seed has won at two other Grand Slam events and that win over Anisimova in New York City could be repeated here. That was a close match and Aryna Sabalenka had to dig deep when broken after serving for the set, but it was won under indoor conditions and the World Number 1 can move into the Final here with a win and a cover of the handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

WTA Finals: 6-5, + 0.21 Units (11 Units Staked, + 1.91% Yield)

Saturday, 30 August 2025

US Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 30th August)

It has not been a good day for American tennis, at least on the men's side of the tournament, with the likes of Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe exiting the US Open before the second week is set to begin.

The Third Round at the final Grand Slam of the season is scheduled to be concluded on Saturday and there are some potentially big matches coming up.

As the tournament progresses and with the majority of the top names still going strong at the event, the matches that will matter most to the fans should be taking place more frequently. There are one or two portions of the draw that have begun to look wide open for a surprise name to have a very big impact at this Grand Slam, but the top contenders are still flying and it is hard to look past someone familiar picking up both Singles titles.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Some very late drama was attached to the win over Jacob Fearnley when the underdog decided to produce tennis of a ridiculous level, but Alexander Zverev was never in any danger of being pushed too much further.

The 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win has continued comfortable passage through the US Open draw and it is clear that Alexander Zverev is pretty happy for most people to talk about the 'big two'.

The World Number 3 is a former Finalist here and has done the same in Melbourne and Paris and so Alexander Zverev has to be confident in his ability to beat anyone and everyone he faces.

Next up is a match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who has yet to drop a set at the US Open and who has been playing some of his best hard court tennis of recent years over the course of the season. However, the Canadian did blow a two set lead in being dumped out of the Second Round at the Australian Open, while Auger-Aliassime has lost his last four hard court matches when facing a top 20 Ranked opponent.

Felix Auger-Aliassime certainly serves well enough to offer some resistance and he has had competitive matches when facing the best players, at least in the main. He was crushed by Jannik Sinner at the Cincinnati Masters, but that feels like an exception to the rule so Alexander Zverev will have to be very focused in what looks a quality match.

The German has been much more solid in the bigger matches compared with Felix Auger-Aliassime, while Alexander Zverev will hold the mental advantage.

The sole Grand Slam match between these players was won by Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon in 2021, but Alexander Zverev has won three of the four matches played against one another since then.

He has also won four of the five hard court matches, including a crushing win at the Miami Masters in 2024.

This should be more competitive than that match, but it is Alexander Zverev who looks more capable of coming out on top at key moments and the expectation is that he will progress in either three or, more likely, four sets.


Alex De Minuar - 7.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: After going 2-1 down in sets and losing serve very early in the fourth set, Daniel Altmaier could have easily begun to think about his exit plans from New York City.

Instead he battled back to win that set and then came through a really tough fifth set to upset Stefanos Tsitsipas and earn himself another match at the US Open.

He is also playing in the Doubles in this final Grand Slam of 2025, but the real challenge for Daniel Altmaier is going to be recovery. For the second match in a row, he has spent well over four hours on the court and that is going to accumulate within the body.

Making matters worse is the opponent.

Alex De Minaur has the movement and the defensive skills to really punish any fatigue that Daniel Altmaier is going to be feeling and this is going to make those hours spent on the court hurt for the underdog.

The World Number 8 won the title in Washington in the build up to this Grand Slam and he has been very comfortable through the first couple of Rounds.

Over the course of the season, Alex De Minaur has shown improvement in both service and returning numbers on the hard courts and he did reach the Quarter Final in his home Grand Slam before running into Jannik Sinner. The very top players look like they will have too many weapons for the top Australian player, but Alex De Minaur is very comfortable when facing opponents he is expected to beat as highlighted by the 24-4 record against players Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface in 2025.

One of those victories was against Daniel Altmaier on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam back in February and it was a strong win for the favourite.

Alex De Minaur dropped just five games in getting past this opponent on that day and you have to believe he can pull away from Daniel Altmaier in the second and third set once tiredness and the scoreboard really turn against the World Number 56.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Coleman Wong: The last twelve to eighteen months have been quite difficult for Andrey Rublev as he looks to avoid wasting unnecessary energy on the courts.

Most of that was through open frustration and he has admitted that it had been holding him back.

Consistency had seen Andrey Rublev reach six of seven Grand Slam Quarter Finals between May 2022 and January 2024, but he has now failed to progress beyond the Fourth Round in six straight Majors. With that in mind, the Quarter Final runs in Toronto and Cincinnati will have given the World Number 15 some confidence and he has looked pretty solid in the tournament so far.

The draw has opened up a little bit and Andrey Rublev next faces Coleman Wong who is the World Number 173.

Credit has to be given to Coleman Wong for coming through the Qualifiers and then upsetting Aleksander Kovacevic and Adam Walton. He has played a lot of tennis over the last week, but winning will have given him a lift, although Wong will be well aware that this is a big leap in level compared with the opponents he has beaten in the run to the Third Round.

The Coleman Wong serve could be a key weapon for him, but he has struggled when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents faced on the hard courts.

Focus will be key for Andrey Rublev.

If he can just not allow himself to become overly frustrated, Andrey Rublev should have the majority of Break Point chances in this match and it could lead to a routine win.

This has sometimes been Andrey Rublev's downfall, but he has looked better all around over the last month on the North American hard courts. He should have enough quality on the court to eventually break down and wear down this opponent and reach the Fourth Round for the sixth time in nine main draw appearances in New York City.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This has been a really productive month of tennis for Naomi Osaka and she is a very dangerous player in the women's draw at the US Open.

A two time former Champion here, Naomi Osaka's game is perfectly suited to the hard courts.

However, her return to the Tour has perhaps not been as smooth as hoped because Naomi Osaka has sometimes struggled to deal with expectation that will have been heaped on her shoulders. Everyone knows the level that Osaka can produce and the pressure has been on to reach that once again, which has perhaps contributed to some of the inconsistent results.

Things look a bit different right now and Naomi Osaka's confidence looks in a good place.

She will tested by Daria Kasatkina who has been a solid hard court player this season, but one who has struggled to get over the line in recent matches.

Two wins in New York City will have given her some confidence and Daria Kasatkina reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open so is clearly happy playing on the hard courts.

However, this is a match that feels like it will be played on the Naomi Osaka racquet- if she serves well, Osaka should find plenty of short runs to attack, while the heavier groundstrokes could see her push Daria Kasatkina onto the back foot.

In their two previous meetings on the Tour, Naomi Osaka has dominated the outcome and that includes on the clay courts in Rome 2024. That may be a surface on which Daria Kasatkina would have felt she could compete best with this powerful opponent, but that was not the case and her own serve has vulnerabilities that Naomi Osaka can exploit in this Third Round match.


Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Magdalena Frech: The first couple of wins at the US Open have not been as straight-forward as Coco Gauff would have hoped and she was in an emotional mood in the Second Round.

The former Champion in New York City, Coco Gaiff perhaps feels more pressure to impress the home fans and that was perhaps part of the reason she was feeling how she was the last time out.

She has faced a couple of awkward opponents, but Coco Gauff has to be more comfortable facing Magdalena Frech considering the two victories and manner of those against this opponent.

The World Number 33 had lost three hard court matches in a row before the two victories at the US Open, but Magdalena Frech has played really well here. The two wins have to give her confidence, although it should be stated that the draw has been a decent one for the Seeded player and this is a considerably tougher test.

Magdalena Frech will be hoping that Coco Gauff has something of an off day, but the reality is that the American is the better player and should be much more comfortable on this surface.

The match up has been one that Coco Gauff has enjoyed previously and it should mean this is one of the more routine wins in the Third Round.


Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Beating one American player may have upset the home crowd, but Jaqueline Cristian was doing the same in the Second Round.

Now she takes aim at a third American player in a row, although Cristian will be very much aware that Amanda Anisimova is the best of the three home hopes that she will have faced in the US Open.

The run to the Third Round has been a little surprising when you think Jaqueline Cristian had lost three hard court matches in a row, including early defeats in Cincinnati and Monterrey. All three of those defeats were in routine fashion and it could be a difficult challenge containing someone like Amanda Anisimova who is very keen to build on reaching the Wimbledon Final.

The defeat in the Final would have stung, but Amanda Anisimova is very confident on the hard courts and has looked good in the first two Rounds in New York City.

In matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, Cristian has really struggled to have much of an impact.

Amanda Anisimova has not been a dominant player, even if she has racked up the wins to move into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

There is definitely some room for improvement in the hard court numbers, although the confidence looks to be flowing through the American right now. She has picked up two very solid wins at Flushing Meadows and Amanda Anisimova has all of the qualities to secure another one, while doing just enough to cover the line that has been set for the match.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 15-9, + 6.44 Units (47 Units Staked, + 13.70% Yield)