ATP Finals Day 8 Tennis Pick 2025- Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz (Sunday 16th November)

The last Singles match of the 2025 Tennis season is fittingly going to be played between the top two players in the world.

Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been peaking into the Final of this event and it would be disappointing if this is not another solid match to add to the ever-increasing rivalry.

Two winners from the Semi Final matches has ensured another good tournament for the Picks to round out a solid bounce back season.

Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 games: This is the sixth meeting in the 2025 season between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner and it perhaps fitting that the Spaniard holds the World Number 1 Ranking having beaten his rival in four of the five matches played.

That includes wins in the French Open and US Open Final, although Jannik Sinner won the Wimbledon Final, and these two players are going to be expected to dice up the Grand Slam titles again next year.

This is a big title to add to the collection- Jannik Sinner won it last year and is playing in front of the home fans, which brings additional momentum, while Carlos Alcaraz has yet to win the ATP Finals.

Both have been playing well and the serves have been key.

Once again that is going to be the case with the player who is able to get a bit more out of this shot likely able to dictate rallies and keep the pressure on the other. Getting the first strike in has to be important for both as they look to put the pressure on the rival across the net, but there will be swings in momentum as has been the case in the previous matches played in 2025.

Rarely have matches been finished in routine straight sets.

We should see both have their chances to take control and a deciding set at the end of this year feels right.

Jannik Sinner is the favourite and by some margin, which is a surprise, and the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz simply because of the way the head to head has developed.

However, the last Pick of the season will be looking for this match to surpass the total games line set.

As long as the two continue to serve at the levels shown in the last few days in Turin, it is a match that could potentially move past this total line even in a straight sets win for either player.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 9-4, + 3.04 Units (13 Units Staked, + 23.38% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th November)

There have been a couple of really disappointing performances from players who will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles in 2026 and that has led to a couple of surprising names being able to make it through to the last four at the ATP Finals.

Most fans will still be expecting to see the top two players in the world compete for yet another title, but Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime are going to have something to say about that.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This Semi Final was set before the final Group matches were played on Friday, but it is Alex De Minaur who will have been able to earn a day of rest between matches.

After losing his opening two matches in the tournament, Alex De Minaur's hopes of progressing into the Semi Final was hanging by a thread going into Day 5 in Turin. He had no choice but to win in straight sets in his final match, but De Minaur still had to wait and hope Carlos Alcaraz would beat Lorenzo Musetti before knowing he would be tasked with heading out and playing again.

Alex De Minaur has to take encouragement out of the fact that his performances have improved in each of the three matches played- after losing in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, De Minaur had a chance to serve out the match against Lorenzo Musetti before losing in three sets and then ultimately beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to move through the Group.

Serving well is going to be really important against the World Number 2 and that has been something that has been challenging for Alex De Minaur when facing Jannik Sinner in the past.

It has also been the reason Alex De Minaur has lost all twelve matches played against the Italian.

All but one of those defeats have been on the hard courts, including in all three matches in 2025 and Jannik Sinner has won seven of the eight sets played between the players. Two of those wins earned by Jannik Sinner have been since the US Open and there is a massive advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player that is almost impossible to ignore.

Jannik Sinner has won 69% of the points played behind his serve compared with Alex De Minaur's 56% mark... This has led to Sinner holding in 91% of service games played compared with De Minaur doing the same in 63% of his own service games and these are big edges in favour of Jannik Sinner.

He was given a bit of an examination by Ben Shelton in the final Group match, but Jannik Sinner was largely in control and did not have to spend any additional time on the court.

This should all mean that the Italian is ready to reach another Final here in Turin and the World Number 2 may be able to do that in some style.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: After losing to Jannik Sinner and looking like he was suffering with some sort of calf injury, Felix Auger-Aliassime has performed really well to win back to back Group matches.

The battling display against Ben Shelton deserves a lot more respect than the win over Alexander Zverev merely because the American pushed Felix Auger-Aliassime really hard. This may have cracked lesser players, but the Canadian has continued producing at key times in the second half of the season and Auger-Aliassime is going to head into 2026 with a lot of confidence.

Everything in this Semi Final is about the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve as he bids to upset the World Number 1.

It has been a big weapon in the wins over Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, but Felix Auger-Aliassime struggled to impose himself on Jannik Sinner in the opening Group match. He may have learned from that, but Auger-Aliassime has not faced Carlos Alcaraz in sixteen months and the Spaniard is playing at a really solid level himself to secure that position heading into the 2026 season.

Three matches played and three wins on the board has given Carlos Alcaraz momentum as he looks to go forward and win the ATP Finals for the first time to continue to add to his increasing trophy collection.

Despite already being through to the Semi Final, Carlos Alcaraz produced his best performance in the tournament in the win over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday. That will further the momentum he has built up in the tournament and Alcaraz has to be pretty confident that much of this match will be played on his racquet, even when facing a very good server like Felix Auger-Aliassime.

There are just more ways for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match.

Covering the spread will not be easy and the World Number 1 may need to break serve at least three times to do that, but he has reached that total in all three of the matches played this week. The performance in the win over Taylor Fritz will give Carlos Alcaraz the confidence to deal with the World Number 8 and he has won each of the last four matches between the players.

We have seen Felix Auger-Aliassime produce high quality tennis when he has momentum and built up confidence- he is dangerous here having done that in back to back wins to join Jannik Sinner in the last four, but Carlos Alcaraz is a big challenge for the Canadian and that may show up on the final scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 7-4, + 1.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 11.64% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 14th November)

Three of the four Semi Finalists in Turin have been confirmed after Alex De Minaur got the better of the odds to win his match in straight sets and then move through to the last four with just a single win under his belt.

He did need Carlos Alcaraz to beat home hope Lorenzo Musetti, and the Australian will feel like he is playing with 'house money' after losing his opening two matches and still finding a way through to the Semi Final.

Preparation will have begun to face Jannik Sinner, although the World Number 2 has to complete his Group commitments in the Day Session on Day 6 at the tournament.

One more Semi Final spot has yet to be confirmed and that will be fought out between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Evening Session with the reward being a match against the World Number 1 on Saturday.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Ben Shelton: Two wins from two matches played means Jannik Sinner has topped this Group and this is a dead rubber for both the top Italian player and Ben Shelton, who has been eliminated after losing the second match in succession.

With that in mind, the organisers have scheduled the contest for the Day Session so Jannik Sinner is able to get plenty of rest before the Semi Final match to be played on Saturday. The chances are that he will be going on in the Evening Session in that Semi Final, especially if the match is against Carlos Alcaraz, and that should allow Jannik Sinner to invest plenty into this match.

He was far from his best in the win over Alexander Zverev, but was still able to come away with a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard. The big points were played really well, especially on his own serve, although Sinner's opponent is going to have some regret about not being able to put in enough aggressive intensity when it mattered the most.

You can be certain that Ben Shelton is not going to take a backwards step in this match, but he has not really been able to compete with Jannik Sinner in their recent meetings and bridging that gap with nothing on the line will be difficult.

Ben Shelton has a big serve, which is always going to make him dangerous and make spreads like this one feel very wide.

However, the American has not really been playing his best tennis since withdrawing at the US Open and Shelton has faced 12 Break Points in his two defeats here in Turin. The performance was better overall against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton will be well aware that he is facing one of the top return players on the Tour and one who has regularly been able to find a way into his service games.

It was Ben Shelton who won the first ever meeting between these players in Shanghai back in October 2023, but Jannik Sinner has clearly taken offence to that and has won all seventeen sets played against the World Number 5 since then.

This includes winning in straight sets at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, while Jannik Sinner has broken in almost 1/4 return games played against Shelton on the hard courts.

Ben Shelton has thus been under immense pressure and that is only increased by the fact he has broken in 8% of return games played against Jannik Sinner on this surface.

He can come out with 'nothing to lose' but this has been a long season and the impending break may be something of a distraction for the lower Ranked player.

Jannik Sinner should still be locked in and he can clear this handicap mark much as he did when beating Shelton in straight sets at the Paris Masters at the end of October.

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Both men have beaten Ben Shelton and lost in straight sets against Jannik Sinner within this Group and that leaves Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime facing a 'winner takes all' contest against one another.

The Evening Session will be headlined by this Singles match as both players look for a strong end to the 2025 season and the narrow edge may have to be with Alexander Zverev.

He has had successes at the Tour Finals in the past and the conditions are very much to Zverev's liking, while he should be highly motivated to want to get one over on Felix Auger-Aliassime having lost to the Canadian in the Third Round at the US Open.

Alexander Zverev has a strong record against this opponent, but he has lost the two Grand Slam matches played against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This is another big setting in which the players are meeting and so that may be something that is on the Zverev mind, even if his overall level here in Turin has been higher than what the World Number 8 has been able produce.

Credit has to be given to Felix Auger-Aliassime for battling back to beat Ben Shelton a couple of days ago, while he has also shown plenty of strength to come through a calf injury suffered in the opening match and still be able to have an opportunity to reach the Semi Final here.

The pressure will be on Felix Auger-Aliassime to serve well and the head to head on the hard courts has seen Alexander Zverev earn a significant edge in that department. Even in the defeat in New York City in the last Grand Slam of the season, Alexander Zverev earned more Break Points than Auger-Aliassime and so there will be a confidence in the German's camp that their man can come through.

In the two matches both have played in this Group, Alexander Zverev has just been the more convincing and that may ultimately show up in this match, which is effectively a Quarter Final.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is dangerous and he is not likely to throw in the towel, but the fine edge in the biggest moments may be with Alexander Zverev and the latter can join Jannik Sinner in the Semi Final lineup.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 7-2, + 3.28 Units (9 Units Staked, + 36.44% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th November)

The last Singles match on Day 4 of the tournament finally produced the first Semi Finalist at the end of year tournament on the ATP Tour.

The home fans will be very happy that the defending Champion Jannik Sinner has made it through, but now the attention will turn to the other Italian playing in the ATP Finals.

Lorenzo Musetti will have to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Evening Session, but the permutations will become very clear to the World Number 9 before he enters the court. Earlier on Taylor Fritz and Alex De Minaur conclude Group action with all four players still having avenues through to the last four, although there are clearer paths for some more than others.

Day 5 sees this Group come to a conclusion and we will have one Semi Final match confirmed for Saturday, while needing Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime to fight it out for the last of the final four spots.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The final placings in this Group at the ATP Finals will be decided on Thursday and all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final of the tournament with a single match to play.

This is rarely the case at the end of year Championships, but the permutations are obviously easier for some players compared with others.

Alex De Minaur has been very open about his admitting his frustrations having led Lorenzo Musetti 5-3 in the final set on Tuesday and looking on course to eliminate the Italian. Instead it was De Minaur who has been left on the edge of elimination after losing four games in a row to lose the match and be pushed to the bottom of the Group.

The only saving grace for Alex De Minaur is that he won a set in that match- he admitted to the press that the frustration of throwing away another winning position has been getting to him, but winning that set means the Australian can move through to the Semi Final with a straight sets win and a defeat for Musetti in the other match in the Group.

Of course the immediate pressure is on Alex De Minuar to win this match in straight sets and you do have to worry about his emotions and how locked in he is going to be if he does drop a set in this final Group match.

His opponent is Taylor Fritz who beat Lorenzo Musetti to open the Group, but was not able to built on winning the first set tie-breaker in the eventual loss to Carlos Alcaraz. The situation is much clearer for the World Number 6 who will know that he will be playing in the Semi Final on Saturday if he wins this match.

In fact, Taylor Fritz has even more control over his own fate.

He can even afford to lose this match in three sets and go through, although the obvious concern there will be Lorenzo Musetti upsetting Carlos Alcaraz later on.

With that in mind, Taylor Fritz should be able to play with more clarity throughout the time on the court- no matter what happens in the first hour, Fritz will be concentrating on winning the match, whereas Alex De Minaur's own concentration could be adversely affected if he loses either of the first two sets and knows his time in Turin is coming to a conclusion.

Out of the two players, Taylor Fritz has been playing with a bit more overall belief in his tennis and he has put together the stronger numbers.

Alex De Minaur had regularly been getting the better of Taylor Fritz in the head to head, but the latter has been turning that around and has won the last two meetings between the players. They have not met in the 2025 season, but Taylor Fritz did beat Alex De Minaur here in the Group Stage twelve months ago having come from a set behind on that occasion when edging the bigger points.

This time it could be tougher for Alex De Minaur to stay mentally checked into the contest and Taylor Fritz can move into the Knock Out Rounds again at this end of year tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There are sixteen permutation of final results in this Group Stage that would see Carlos Alcaraz make it through to the Semi Final of the ATP Finals and just two that would see him miss out.

Most players who have won two matches in the Group Stage would expect to progress and a win by Alex De Minaur earlier in the day would secure the World Number 1's spot in the last four.

If Taylor Fritz has won the earlier Singles match, that would mean that Carlos Alcaraz needs to win at least a set in this one if he is going to progress.

That would also mean Lorenzo Musetti HAS to win in straight sets, while an Alex De Minaur win would leave the Italian needing any kind of victory to move out of the Group having lost the opening match.

Unlike most football tournaments, matches are not played simultaneously at the end of the Group Stage at this tennis event and so the situation for both players will only become clear once the first match is completed.

It could be a potential factor- will Carlos Alcaraz be fully focused if Alex De Minaur has won and already seen his place booked in the Semi Final? That could depend on how things are shaking up in the other Group, but a Jannik Sinner win on Wednesday will mean the Runner Up in this section will have to face him in the Semi Final.

This could double down the focus for Carlos Alcaraz who may want to retain some momentum by winning all three Group matches, which is the only way he can guarantee top spot in the section.

He will have a lot of respect for Lorenzo Musetti who has shown he can dig into the reserves to keep himself alive in the event having won the last four games played against Alex De Minaur to beat the Australian in the last match in the Group. A defear would have meant elimination, but Musetti showed he could dig deep enough to claw himself out of a hole and has had a day of rest between matches this time.

The three matches played between the players this season will have underlined how competitive Lorenzo Musetti can be against Carlos Alcaraz, although all three were played on clay courts.

Previous hard court meetings between the players have been dominated by the World Number 1 and Carlos Alcaraz has really been able to dictate behind the serve.

This has been a tournament where Alcaraz still has room for improvement on the serve, but he has been returning efficiently and the Lorenzo Musetti serve was under attack against both of his previous opponents. Neither is really as strong as Carlos Alcaraz on the return and he could grind down the home player, regardless of the overall situation for the World Number 9 as far as the progression permutations go.

Those previous hard court results against Carlos Alcaraz are also a factor and this is a match that feels like it could end in a similar scoreline that was faced by Lorenzo Musetti in his opening defeat.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 6-1, + 3.53 Units (7 Units Staked, + 50.43% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th November)

The second Group will complete another round of matches on Wednesday and there is every chance the Semi Final lineup will really begin to take shape by the end of play.

The second match is going to feature the World Number 2 and Italian Number 1, and that is the match where the selection from Day 4 will come.

In the Day Session we do have a battle between Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime, but there is just too much uncertainty around both players to be comfortable in making any selection.

At the time of writing, there still has to be some doubts that Auger-Aliassime will even take to the court having looked completely hobbled in the defeat to Jannik Sinner. He is giving himself as much time as possible to recover, but that makes a selection impossible to make with doubts all about the Canadian.

You could recommend his opponent to get the better of a less than 100% Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton has not been himself since pulling out of the US Open with an injury. That looked like being a season ender, but he has played some tennis without the same level of success since that moment and Shelton is another who may be thinking about Melbourne in January more than having a real belief of having a deep run here.

That is especially the case having lost the opening match against Alexander Zverev and the factors just add up to make it a 'no pick' contest.

You can read my thoughts on the second Singles match scheduled for the Night Session below.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Right off the bat you have to feel this is a very big spread against a potentially very dangerous opponent, but the World Number 2 is going to have the mental advantage having crushed Alexander Zverev for the loss of a single game in the Paris Masters Semi Final a little over a week ago.

That is the most one-sided win in the recent rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev and the latter is always going to believe that his serve offers him a route into any game. He will certainly expect to have more success with that shot in this Group match at the ATP Finals, although the recent numbers in matches between Zverev and Sinner have suggested a big win for the latter was going to come sooner than later.

This is going to be the fourth meeting between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the 2025 season and all of the previous three have been on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner has faced just 4 Break Points in the previous three matches and all of those came in the sole match played between the two in the Vienna Final last month. Only one of those Break Points ended up with the point being won by Alexander Zverev, although that cost Jannik Sinner a set in that Final.

At the same time, Jannik Sinner has created 27 Break Points against the Alexander Zverev serve- he had been wasteful in the first two meetings in Melbourne and Vienna with four breaks of serve from 18 Break Point chances generated, but Jannik Sinner was ruthless in Paris and converted 6/9 in that Semi Final.

Over the course of the season, Jannik Sinner has been one of the top return players and his Break Point conversion rate is ranked in the top three. That made it a matter of time before all of the chances he has been creating against the Alexander Zverev serve would show up on the scoreboard and the Italian is likely to have too much for the World Number 3 in this Group match.

In the last twelve months, Alexander Zverev has had a hard lesson when it comes to competing with the top players on the Tour- in matches against top five Ranked opponents, his service numbers have really dipped, but the biggest worry for a player hoping to compete for a Grand Slam is that he has broken in around 8% of return games played.

This has put a huge amount of pressure on Zverev and Jannik Sinner is likely going to do the same in front of the home fans.

Alexander Zverev did beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group Stage of the ATP Finals here twelve months ago, but had lost six straight matches to top five Ranked opponents before beating Ben Shelton on Sunday. He is going to have to find another level to compete with the defending Champion in this second Group match, although Alexander Zverev will likely remain in a pretty good spot to progress with a single match left to come against Felix Auger-Aliassime (or a replacement if the Canadian is still struggling with his injury).

If he serves at his very best level, Alexander Zverev may keep this close on the scoreboard and this spread will look way to wide.

However, the World Number 3 will have exorcise some mental demons after the embarrassing loss in the French capital just a few days ago and Jannik Sinner may just do enough to find the breaks needed to cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 11th November)

The ATP Finals will continue on Tuesday and we have two Singles matches scheduled from the same Group, which has not been the case in the opening two days at the event thanks to the last place being fought out as late as Saturday.

You do have to wonder if that effort made by Lorenzo Musetti to merely earn a spot in Turin has sapped him of any remaining energy at the end of a long season, but first the two winners in this Group will face one another with a victory likely going to mean progression into the Semi Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Both of these players produced wins in the opening Group matches at the ATP Finals having overcome some nervy moments. Being able to do so should mean both Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz are a little bit 'freer' as they meet in the second Group matches with the winner set to take their place in the Semi Final of the event.

Two wins is usually enough to progress, but that is not always the case and will be dependent on the other match to be played in the Evening Session.

It is no surprise that the organisers have set this one up for the Day Session and that is to ensure Italian Lorenzo Musetti is given the best chance to rest, recover and be prepared to play. With the last place at the Tour Finals only being confirmed on Saturday, the usual format of the event has not been in place in the Group Stage for those involved in this section and that means Taylor Fritz having to play on back to back days.

Tennis players are used to being in that position so it is not expected to be a big factor in this match and Taylor Fritz also has the confidence of having a win under his belt. Previous experiences at the Tour Finals have been very positive for the American and Fritz will feel his serve gives him a shot against any opponent he faces, even one that has had the better of the head to head like Carlos Alcaraz has had in this case.

Taylor Fritz did beat Carlos Alcaraz for the first time in Laver Cup action after the US Open, but it was back to the norm when they played in the Tokyo Final as the World Number 1 came through in straight sets to win yet another title.

While Carlos Alcaraz has not enjoyed the kind of successes you would expect at the ATP Finals, he is going to feel a lot better after battling through an opening win. The Spaniard is very, very comfortable on the hard courts and Carlos Alcaraz will be confident in the match up, even if Taylor Fritz is capable of frustrating him with the serve.

Whenever these two play one another, there is always going to be a lot of pressure on the Taylor Fritz serve knowing he becomes a bigger and bigger underdog within every point the longer the rally develops.

Carlos Alcaraz has had a big edge in the serving and returning numbers in the head to head and that has led to four wins in five matches played against one another. In three of the four wins, Alcaraz has had at least two more breaks of serve compared with Taylor Fritz and everything is pointing to the top Seed having the edge over the course of this latest match too.

There is room for improvement in the Carlos Alcaraz performance after the one produced to get the better of Alex De Minaur, but he has shown time and again that he has the game plan to make things very difficult for Taylor Fritz. The expectation is of more of the same and the likelihood is that Alcaraz will find two more breaks of serve than the World Number 6 and that should see him through to a cover in another winning effort.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: He has won the last three head to head matches against this opponent, including both played in 2025, and that may just give Lorenzo Musetti the belief to push on and win this Group match at the ATP Finals.

Another loss will likely mean elimination for whoever ends up on the wrong side of this match.

Lorenzo Musetti made it really clear how much he wanted to compete at the ATP Finals in Turin and that meant putting in a monumental effort in Athens when reaching the Final played on Saturday. He lost that to Novak Djokovic and needed the withdrawal to take his place at the ATP Finals, and you do have to wonder if there is much left in the tank.

It certainly did not look the case in a relatively straight-forward loss to Taylor Fritz on Monday- Lorenzo Musetti started off pretty well, but he looked more and more tired as the match went on and that was really evident in the service games.

A little more than twenty-four hours rest is not going to make a lot of difference and Musetti is going to need the Italian fans to get firmly behind him, as they did on Monday to their credit. Being an Evening Session match should mean the fans are more 'up' for this match, which can help too, but Lorenzo Musetti has played a lot of tennis since Friday and spent a lot of hours on the court.

All of that is going to be tested by Alex De Minaur who is one of the top defenders on the Tour and who will have last played on Sunday when coming up short against the World Number 1.

Losing both matches to Lorenzo Musetti in 2025 will perhaps be on the mind, but those were defeats on clay courts, while the previous loss in 2024 was on the grass courts. The sole hard court match was played in a very different atmosphere at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Alex De Minaur came through in four sets in an environment where he would have been heavily backed from the stands, the complete opposite to what awaits on Tuesday evening.

The most recent match between the pair in Madrid was dominated by Lorenzo Musetti, but Alex De Minaur will have regrets about the loss in Monte Carlo. In the first three matches between the pair, the Australian had dominated the number of Break Points created and De Minaur may be able to outlast Lorenzo Musetti in this match.

Alex De Minaur will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Carlos Alcaraz, but he can keep his opponent out there for long enough to slow him down. That will then really become evident on the return with De Minaur likely happy to sit in during rallies and just allow Lorenzo Musetti to be worn down and eventually this may lead to a solid enough victory to keep Alex De Minaur alive in the tournament.

The home fans will push Lorenzo Musetti to bring his best throughout, but the feeling is that he has left something in Athens after fighting so hard to merely make the ATP Finals in Turin and that will leave the World Number 9 short of the energy that is going to be needed in this match.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 4-0, + 3.22 Units (4 Units Staked, + 80.50% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 10th November)

A couple of tie-breakers needed to go in favour of the two selections made on Sunday at the opening of the ATP Finals, and that was key to seeing both return as winners.

It is a much more positive start to the ATP Finals compared with the WTA Finals last week in Riyadh, but that tournament ended with some strong results to produce a profit and so there is still plenty of work to do before the end of the 2025 season.

Two more matches are set to be played on Monday as both Groups conclude the opening round robin in Turin.

The selections from the two Singles matches can be read below.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Playing at the ATP Finals is a big achievement for any player, but there was a clear motivation for Lorenzo Musetti to make his debut at the tournament being hosted in his home country.

That meant taking in a tournament in Athens last week where Lorenzo Musetti had to win the title- he reached the Final on Saturday, but was beaten by Novak Djokovic, although it was later announced that the Serb would not take part in the ATP Finals and so Musetti comes into the draw.

He would have preferred a bit more rest after playing an almost three hour Final on Saturday and being scheduled in the Day Session at the ATP Finals in Turin on Monday. Motivation is high and that will help Lorenzo Musetti in finding some energy, but it looks a tough spot for him, even when beginning this tournament facing an opponent he has beaten in each of the last three meetings on the Tour.

The last of those was at the Paris Olympics and that was on a clay court, but Lorenzo Musetti also holds a big win over Taylor Fritz in the Wimbledon Quarter Final in 2024 and that will give him confidence even if he has not faced the American over the last sixteen months.

The sole previous hard court meeting between the players was won by Taylor Fritz who reached the Final in Tokyo since the US Open, but who had some disappointing tournaments in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. The last two tournaments were played on indoor hard courts, but Taylor Fritz has reached the Semi Final and the Final in his two previous appearances in the ATP Finals and only Jannik Sinner got the better of Fritz in the tournament last year.

It does feel that the Taylor Fritz serve is going to be key to the outcome of this opening Group match.

Lorenzo Musetti has had a big year and did reach a peak career World Ranking back in June, but he is just 1-6 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. His numbers have suggested he has been struggling to compete with the very best players on the Tour and Lorenzo Musetti just put in a huge week of tennis to merely make it to Turin, which could leave him short of the energy needed in this opening outing.

Improving the return continues to be the challenge for Taylor Fritz if he is going to take the next step and win a Grand Slam title, but he should find a way to get into the Musetti return games in this match. That should give the World Number 4 an opportunity to create the Break Points to put himself into a position to won and cover the handicap line set on Monday and Taylor Fritz looks more likely to do that and snap his three match losing run to this opponent.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: If he serves as he did in the Paris Masters Final, Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to make short work of covering this handicap mark.

However, all of the pressure is on his shoulders having lost each of the three hard court matches played against Jannik Sinner this season and now facing to face the defending Champion in a tournament where he is going to be getting some huge support from the stands.

Felix Auger-Aliassime did give Sinner a scare in the US Open Semi Final but the World Number 2 was perhaps not fully healthy in that match. And even then, Jannik Sinner was able to recover from an awkward second set to come through in four sets and he was pretty comfortable in the win over the Canadian in Paris a little over a week ago.

In two of the three hard court matches played over the last three months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has not been able to do much against the Jannik Sinner serve. This has kept the scoreboard pressure building on him and it was only some wasted chances in the Paris Masters that prevented the Italian from pulling away in that Final.

Jannik Sinner took the first Break Point on that day, but he was not able to take any of the next five played across two games and that just allowed Felix Auger-Aliassime to build some rhythm and confidence.

There is no doubt that the Auger-Aliassime serve is a major weapon, but his hold percentage has dipped to below 80% when only considering matches against top five Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025. His return remains erratic to say the least and that is also very notable when Felix Auger-Aliassime has gone up against the biggest names on the Tour.

As long as Jannik Sinner continues to serve at his current level, he will be relatively comfortable protecting this shot and that should allow him to play with some aggression on the return.

Felix Auger-Aliassime will be asked to serve at his absolute best level to stick with the World Number 2 and we have seen him fall away a couple of times, which makes the effort in Paris feel like the exception to the norm.

It is a big spread, and one that could become awkward very early in this Group match, but Jannik Sinner looks capable of covering and he will want to lay down an early marker to rival Carlos Alcaraz, who had a solid win on Sunday in his own opening match.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 2-0, + 1.72 Units (2 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 9th November)

It was no surprise that Novak Djokovic took part in the ATP Athens event, which concluded on Saturday, especially with the connections he has to the new event.

He went on and won the title, which would have meant Lorenzo Musetti missed out on playing in the ATP Finals in Turin, but it was later announced that Djokovic will not take part.

This has pushed the Italian into the main draw, but the absence of Novak Djokovic is a blow to the tournament, even if he would have been third favourite behind the two top players in the Rankings. The Serb is clearly thinking ahead to January and being ready to compete as well as he can at his favourite Grand Slam, where Djokovic is perhaps most likely to win another major.

Eight players will still be playing in Turin with a big title on the line, although it would take a brave person to pick anything other than another Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Final in a hard court event.

Roger Federer suggested organisers are making conditions uniform enough to ensure both Alcaraz and Sinner have the best chance to continue to reach Finals and win big titles, and everything suggests both will be playing in the Final next weekend.

The WTA Finals began slowly for the Picks, but Elena Rybakina's win in the Final meant a winning week.

Backing that up in the last tournament of 2025 would confirm a winning season and that is the focus in the days ahead.

With the last place at the tournament only confirmed on Saturday, it means both each Group will have one match played on Sunday and Monday respectively before the tournament perhaps moves into a more usual format.

The ATP Finals begin on Sunday and the opening two selections can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The Davis Cup is the official end of the 2025 ATP season, but this is the last big Singles event of the year before players can take some time away from the sport and just reset.

Winning the ATP Finals is a big achievement and Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to add this trophy to his growing Grand Slam collection.

He won two of the four Grand Slams played in 2025, but twelve months ago the Spaniard failed to get out of the Group Stage at this event. This time Carlos Alcaraz will likely end the year as the World Number 1 as long as he makes it through to the Semi Final, although the ambitions will be much greater than merely getting through to the Knock Out Rounds.

The opening match will be a test, but Carlos Alcaraz has won another title since the US Open success and he has had another strong year on the hard courts.

First up is another match against Alex De Minaur, which will be the third time the two players have faced off in 2025 and Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous matches between the players. When they met on an indoor hard court back in February, Carlos Alcaraz did need to come through in three sets and that will give Alex De Minaur some confidence.

The Australian will have been disappointed with the defeat at the US Open in the Quarter Final, especially considering how close that match had been, but that has not prevented Alex De Minaur from putting together a solid Asian swing. It means Alex De Minaur is the World Number 7 and he has reached the business end of a number of tournaments in what has been a solid year on this surface.

Over the course of the year, Alex De Minaur has shown an improved serve and that has made things easier for him.

However, the test for De Minaur is trying to impose himself a little more when it comes to facing the very best players on the Tour.

He has a 1-6 record on the hard courts against top ten Ranked opponents this year and his service numbers have dipped significantly in those matches. In those seven matches, Alex De Minaur has won around 10% fewer service points and that means holding in 70% of games played, which is always going to be something that puts him under significant pressure against the very best opponents.

It is a pressure that has meant only breaking in 14% of return games and so the edge has to be with the current World Number 1 to make a strong start to the tournament.

Despite the head to head record, this has been a match up that has caused Carlos Alcaraz some problems and that will have to be respected.

The Spaniard will be well aware of that too, but he should have enough to just about cover this line, even in a competitive outing.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Ben Shelton: Being in the same Group as Jannik Sinner means this opens as a pivotal match in the section when Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton.

Both players have not played as well as they would have liked when facing top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season and that is something that will need to change significantly in 2026 if Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton have real ambitions of winning a Grand Slam title. The tennis draw format means the likelihood is that they would have to beat both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz if they were to win a Grand Slam title and they both had runs ended by the Italian at the Australian Open.

They will have to face Jannik Sinner later in the Group, but the focus here will be on one another Alexander Zverev has found a way to get the better of Ben Shelton in meetings on the Tour.

All four have been won by the World Number 3 and Alexander Zverev has beaten Ben Shelton on all three surfaces in 2025.

This has to give him confidence, although facing the Shelton serve on an indoor hard court is going to be a huge challenge for every opponent that steps across the net from the American in Turin.

An injury forced Ben Shelton out of the US Open, which hurt massively, and the worry for his fans is that he has not shown a lot of form since then.

Early losses in Shanghai, Basel and Paris means Ben Shelton comes into this one with little match time and confidence and he may struggle to stick with Alexander Zverev at key moments.

Alexander Zverev reached the Final in Vienna and the Semi Final in Paris and he should be able to largely handle the potential scoreboard pressure with his own serve being very effective. The numbers have not been quite as strong as 2024 in the hard court matches played over the last eleven months, but Alexander Zverev will be confident he can contain the Ben Shelton return having held almost 98% of service games played against this opponent.

Tie-breakers are likely going to be needed, but Alexander Zverev should have enough to earn a victory to cover this handicap line set.

He is a two time previous winner at the ATP Finals, including the first played here in Turin and Alexander Zverev can maintain his edge over Ben Shelton.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 161-133, + 12.01 Units (390 Units Staked, + 3.08% Yield)