Wimbledon Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Friday 5th July)

The sun was shining on Thursday, although it was perhaps windier than some of the tennis players would have hoped, and that has allowed Wimbledon to get back on track.

Andy Murray's time at the tournament took another step towards the exit door after his early defeat in the Men's Doubles and the Mixed Doubles is the only draw left for the two time former Singles Champion.

The organisers made sure there was a proper tribute video ready to go and a number of players were also welcomed onto court to offer Andy Murray his best as a top career moves into the final month before retirement is called.

Day 5 looks like it could be considerably wetter than the Thursday and that could be problematic, especially ahead of a potentially wet weekend. The Third Round could be hit hard with players having to play on consecutive days, and that could be an issue for those who have not been scheduled on the two main show courts.

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: The Second Round win was much tougher than expected for Daniil Medvedev and he was in a bit of bother when trailing by a set and a break.

However, the World Number 5 has reached six Grand Slam Finals and also the Wimbledon Semi Final in his career and you can only do that by figuring out problems on the court. He showed all of that in the Second Round and Daniil Medvedev battled through, much like he tends to do on a week by week basis on the Tour.

Being one of the top players, Daniil Medvedev will tend to be scheduled to play on the show courts, but the feeling is that he prefers NOT to play on Centre Court. There is a belief that Centre is playing slower than Court One, although being on the main show court in SW19 may help in this case against a very dangerous opponent.

Jan-Lennard Struff almost cracked the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time in his career thirteen months ago, but he has fallen out of the Seeded positions these days. Injury has not helped, but a run to the Quarter Final in Halle where Struff was narrowly beaten by Jannik Sinner perhaps indicates that there is going to be a turnaround in the drop in World Rankings.

Nothing has been easy for Jan-Lennard Struff at Wimbledon in the first two Rounds, but he will have gained some confidence from winning matches. That helps in the tight moments, and there are likely going to be a few of those in this match against one of the top Seeds.

The serve is going to be a key weapon for both of these players, but you have to give Daniil Medvedev a significant edge on the return. Ultimately that could be key to the outcome of the match and in their previous eight matches on the Tour, it is Medvedev who has a real advantage when it comes to the numbers that lead to breaks of serve.

They have met twice on the grass courts too and both in 2021- Jan-Lennard Struff beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets at Halle, but it was the latter who earned revenge with a four set win over the German here at Wimbledon in the First Round.

Once again, Daniil Medvedev has been able to hold a significant amount of games more than Jan-Lennard Struff in those two matches and that is likely going to be the case on Day 5 at The Championships.

Tie-breakers may be needed, but Daniil Medvedev can move into the second week at Wimbledon again with a win in three or four sets against a potentially dangerous opponent.

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There will be plenty of people thinking back to the 2022 US Open Semi Final played between Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe which was won by the Spaniard in five sets.

He ended up winning his maiden Grand Slam at that event and Carlos Alcaraz has gone from strength to strength on the Tour, even if he arrives at Wimbledon as the World Number 3. At the moment Alcaraz holds both the French Open and Wimbledon titles, but defending the latter is all that is on the mind.

Peaking too early at a Grand Slam can be problematic and there is little doubt that Carlos Alcaraz is happy to work his way into the tournament. He had to get through two tough sets in his First Round win over the World Number 269 and Carlos Alcaraz needed to win a tie-breaker to take the first set in the Second Round before moving through the gears.

A match like this one should mean we see the defending Champion come out with a lot more focus right from the off and he will certainly appreciate the threat that Frances Tiafoe can bring to the court.

It has been a tough twelve months for the American who is in danger to slip further down the World Rankings and miss Seeding for the US Open coming up in August. Earlier this week, Frances Tiafoe made it clear that he feels he has been underperforming and losing to 'clowns', which would not have gone down very well with his fellow professionals, but he is not facing a circus act in this Third Round.

Prior to Wimbledon, Frances Tiafoe had only won two matches in the same tournament on two occasions in 2024 and that has seen him start the year as the World Number 16 and drop down to his current Number 29 mark.

To be fair to Frances Tiafoe, he has not played badly on the grass in the lead up to Wimbledon, but he has just lacked the confidence when the big moments have arrived within matches. The serve can be a big weapon when at his best, but Tiafoe has had difficulty on the return and that is likely to be exposed by Carlos Alcaraz.

Even in the five set win at the US Open a little under two years ago, Carlos Alcaraz dominated the numbers and actually won the match by a NINE game margin. It would not be a surprise to anyone if we need to see at least one Breaker in this Third Round match, especially if it is needed to be played under the roof with more rain expected in SW19, but eventually the feeling is that Carlos Alcaraz will create enough Break Points to be in a position to cover a big handicap mark.

Twelve months ago, Frances Tiafoe was well beaten in the Third Round at Wimbledon by Grigor Dimitrov and the defending Champion may just roll through the gears and wear down an opponent that may not have the confidence to stay with him.

Coco Gauff - 6.5 games v Sonay Kartal: Any player that is able to work through the Qualifiers and win two main draw matches at a Grand Slam deserves a lot of respect and Sonay Kartal is deserving of some of the extra attention she has earned at Wimbledon.

She began the tournament on the edge of dropping out of the top 300 in the World Rankings and there has been a real worry that the British player would have to think about calling time on her career. Despite the quality of tennis she can play, injuries have been a big factor that has prevented Sonay Kartal from putting some steam behind her performances and to find the consistency needed.

Even if Sonay Kartal was to lose on Day 5 at The Championships, she will be playing on a new career high World Ranking at the end of Wimbledon. There is still considerable work for Kartal to do if she is going to break into the top 100 and earning direct entry into Grand Slam events, from where you can build further, but for now the concentration has to be on playing for as long as possible at her home Grand Slam.

There was little doubt that this match would be placed on a show court, although Sonay Kartal may be a touch disappointed that Court One has been selected rather than Centre Court.

Despite that, Coco Gauff will offer a stiff challenge for the home hope and the performances in the first two Rounds have been ruthless. As mentioned in the last few days, Gauff likely cannot believe the opportunity in front of her in the bottom half of the Ladies draw and the World Number 2 is playing with the confidence that will make her very difficult to beat.

In the four sets won this week, Coco Gauff has dropped just six games and the only concern may be the little amount of Sonay Kartal that she or her team will have seen.

However, the American has shown that she can work things out pretty quickly and the level shown on the grass makes it very hard to believe Kartal can keep this one much competitive than the last two opponents Coco Gauff has faced have managed to do.

Sonay Kartal has played well, but she is going to need to serve at a very high level to put Coco Gauff under any pressure and the spotlight can sting when you are a player that is not used to being the focus of big crowds. The home crowd will make sure they get behind Kartal, but Coco Gauff is very popular at Wimbledon too and her level might be too high for a player that has massively overachieved by reaching the Third Round at Wimbledon this summer.

The handicap is a big one, but Coco Gauff has shown she is comfortable being a frontrunner and it has allowed her to motor through matches.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 13-7, + 8.24 Units (40 Units Staked, + 20.60% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (July 5th)

The feeling was that there would be several breaks of play over the course of the day, but even the most pessimistic of Wimbledon weather forecasts would not have called for the amount of rain seen on Day 2 at the tournament.

It means the schedule has already been severely impacted and a large majority of the First Round has to be completed on Day 3 at the third Grand Slam of the 2023 season. The next three days looks a lot drier, although there is still a chance we will see at least one break in play because of rain on Wednesday, and that is important for the tournament to get back on track as they look for a long day of play.

With a host of matches to get through from the First Round, it does mean Wimbledon will have a lot fewer Second Round matches set to be played compared with usual.

A large number of the Picks made for Tuesday will have to be decided as we get into Day 3, while there are a couple of selections from Monday that have yet to be completed. I have updated the totals for the tournament from the completed Picks below, while time constraints means this thread is going to feature the selections from the Second Round matches to be played on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ana Bogdan - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 9-7, + 2.22 Units (32 Units Staked, + 6.94% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2022 (July 5th)

On one hand it feels like the third Grand Slam of the 2022 season has just started, but on the other there has been enough drama and rollercoaster matches to know it is a tournament that is down to the final few days.

Quarter Final action will begin on Tuesday and with no more rain delays to get in the way.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Jannik Sinner: After winning the battle of the 'Next Gen' stars of the ATP Tour, Jannik Sinner will be playing a maiden Quarter Final at Wimbledon. The win over Carlos Alcaraz was impressive, but this is another massive step up for Jannik Sinner who now has to beat the three time defending Wimbledon Champion.

The talent is clear for all to see and there is an excitement about what the future will hold for Jannik Sinner, but you cannot ignore the fact that he has struggled on the grass before this tournament at Wimbledon. He has been good enough to beat some quality opponents on his way to the Quarter Final, but Novak Djokovic is a level above all he has played and I do think the youngster is going to have a difficult learning experience on Tuesday.

I will not ignore how well Jannik Sinner has played in the tournament, but he is still not returning serve as well as he would like and I think that is where the difference is made between the two players.

It has been anything but plain sailing for Novak Djokovic, but the Wimbledon Champion has produced at a high level since a more difficult First Round than anticipated and his numbers have been very impressive. The serve has long been an underrated weapon for the 20 time Grand Slam Champion, but he has won at least 45% of return points in each of his last three matches at Wimbledon and I do think that return game will make the difference for him in this Quarter Final.

Jannik Sinner has served well and has not been broken in his last two matches combined, but Novak Djokovic will bring another level of intensity into those service games and I do think he is the clear top player on the grass courts on the men's side of the draw.

Their sole previous meeting saw Novak Djokovic beat Jannik Sinner relatively comfortably on the clay courts of Monte Carlo in 2021, but I am expecting the grass courts to give the top Seed a further edge. I cannot say that this is a small spread being set by the layers, but I am expecting a focused and intense Novak Djokovic to have too much for the young Italian and he can win well over the course of the match.

Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v David Goffin: A number of British players have reached the Semi Final of the Wimbledon Grand Slam in the last twenty years and Cameron Norrie will feel he has more than enough quality tennis to become the latest to do that.

After a tough, straight sets win over Tommy Paul in the Fourth Round, Cameron Norrie is clearly embracing the growing expectations around him that could see him follow Andy Murray and become a home winner of the tournament. Without a doubt there are some huge challenges ahead for him to do that, but Cameron Norrie should be good enough to win this Quarter Final.

The lefty serve is a big weapon for Cameron Norrie on the surface and he should be far fresher than David Goffin who completed his Fourth Round win in five sets in the longest match that has been played at Wimbledon so far. All credit has to be given to the Belgian for the come from behind win over Frances Tiafoe, but David Goffin is 31 years old now and with a host of injuries on the body, which could leave him vulnerable when it comes to putting together the energy to win this match.

The run to the Quarter Final has been surprising considering the little form shown, while David Goffin was perhaps a touch fortunate to win his Fourth Round match.

The serve can be a little vulnerable at times and David Goffin may find it much more difficult to make up for breaks in this match than he has previously in the tournament. Cameron Norrie's serve is far from the most important aspect of his tennis, but a potentially fatigued David Goffin may be moved around over the course of a couple of hours to be worn down and give up a few more 'easier' holds of serve as the match develops.

David Goffin's return game has also not been as effective in the last couple of Rounds as he would have liked and I think that potentially shows up in this match as Cameron Norrie looks to give the home fans another British Semi Finalist to appreciate.

With the potential fatigue mentioned, I think Cameron Norrie can win this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 

Julie Niemeier - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 47-42, + 4.32 Units (178 Units Staked, + 2.43% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2021 (July 5th)

The last Middle Sunday that will ever be used at Wimbledon has come and gone and that also means we are set for the last ever Manic Monday, a day that was considered the best day of Grand Slam tennis fans will get to see on the Tour.

The entire Fourth Round is scheduled to be completed on Monday, but from 2022 Wimbledon will join the other Grand Slams in playing every day from the opening day to the Final and that also means the Fourth Round will be split over two days in the years ahead.

As a fan I am massively disappointed, but I do have an opportunity to be at the grounds on Monday and I am looking forward to the drama unfolding all around.

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Cristian Garin: It was a tougher than expected Third Round match for Novak Djokovic, but I think he partly lost a bit of focus as the crowd got behind his opponent. Ultimately making it through to the second week of Wimbledon and extending his winning run at the tournament to seventeen matches is all that Novak Djokovic will have cared about and it would be a big upset if he is not able to make the Quarter Final yet again.

Despite the slightly tougher match, Novak Djokovic has won nine sets in a row since surprisingly dropping the opener against Jack Draper. He has not spent too long on the courts and Novak Djokovic has been serving really well, while we all know what the World Number 1 is capable of when it comes to the return of serve.

Confidence is not going to be a problem for Novak Djokovic and he is playing a clay court specialist who has made a run at Wimbledon in unexpected fashion.

Cristian Garin has needed five sets, four sets and then four sets to win his matches at Wimbledon and I have to credit the Chilean for taking advantage of a largely kind looking draw. You still have to win your matches though and Garin has to be given credit for that, although I do worry about his overall level and whether he is going to be good enough to keep up with what I am expecting to be a much stronger Novak Djokovic than the one we saw on Friday.

He is returning well enough to at least feel he can have some successes, but Cristian Garin will have some very tough stretches in this match and I do think that is going to see Novak Djokovic take control of the match and take it on.

Their sole previous meeting on the Tour has come on a hard court and it was won comfortably by Novak Djokovic in straight sets. On that day he was able to break in 44% of return games played and I do think the match up is a relatively comfortable one for Novak Djokovic who should not feel under a lot of pressure over the course of this one.

The first couple of sets may be fairly competitive, but from there Novak Djokovic should be able to make comfortable passage to what should be a Quarter Final scheduled to be played on Tuesday. Novak Djokovic has broken at least four times in all three of his matches at Wimbledon and I think he can do slightly better against Cristian Garin which will set him up for the cover of a big mark.

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It has been a strange time for all, but tennis can throw up these moments where you seem to be running into the same opponent on a regular basis. That is what Marton Fucsovics has to be feeling when noticing he is up against Andrey Rublev for the fifth time in 2021.

The previous matches has seen Marton Fucsovics withdraw before taking the court once, but the other three completed matches have all been won by Andrey Rublev. The worry for the Hungarian is that each of the last three matches have been won a little more comfortably by Andrey Rublev and the match up is one that has not favoured Marton Fucsovics who has only held serve in 69% of service games played and has yet to break the Andrey Rublev serve.

Playing on the grass courts might actually favour Fucsovics more than their previous hard court matches, but Andrey Rublev reached the Final in Halle in the warm up for Wimbledon and he has looked comfortable in his three matches won so far in SW19. The Russian has been serving really well, but the key to his performances has been the amount of breaks of serve he has been producing and this has to be a worry for Marton Fucsovics.

The latter has upset the odds a couple of times already at Wimbledon, but he had not been at his best in the warm up events and I do wonder if there is going to be a real mental obstacle to overcome against an opponent who has dominated their matches in 2021. Playing on the grass will help as I have mentioned, but Marton Fucsovics has been a little up and down on the surface throughout his professional career and I think this will be a tough match for him.

The serve has been working well for Marton Fucsovics so far in this tournament, but I expect Andrey Rublev to really put him under pressure with his returning ability. Having produced at least five breaks of serve in each of his three wins, I think Rublev is likely going to have too much for Marton Fucsovics and will eventually begin to grind down an opponent that he has regularly gotten the better of throughout the season already.

Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda over 39.5 games: It has been a solid run through the draw for Karen Khachanov who has previously performed very well on the grass courts, but the last month has been much more difficult for him. With that in mind it has been a surprising run into the second week at Wimbledon, although Karen Khachanov has had a decent draw.

The win over Frances Tiafoe in the Third Round was impressive considering the form of the American, but another level may need to be found by Karen Khachanov if he is going to move past Sebastian Korda.

The young player may not have a lot of grass court experience, but wins over Alex De Minaur and Dan Evans have been impressive and Sebastian Korda comes from a hugely athletic family which suggests he is not going to be intimidated by entering the second week of a Grand Slam tournament. In saying that, the young player will have to be performing at close to his best to have an opportunity to earn another upset in the 2021 Wimbledon tournament and Sebastian Korda has to serve well to get past this opponent after a tight win in the Third Round over Daniel Evans.

In reality neither of these players have really played that well on the grass courts in preparation for Wimbledon and both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda have overachieved in terms of the expectations they would have had before the tournament began.

There is a similarity in the return numbers, but the edge has to be given to the Russian player who has the stronger serving stats so far at the tournament. Before Wimbledon began, both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda held 80% of service games they had played on the grass courts, but it is Korda who has had a significant edge in terms of return figures.

Karen Khachanov has the superior performances in this tournament, but he has not played the same kind of opponent as Sebastian Korda. That may be telling with the numbers as similar as they are, but I do think both players will win a set and that can see them well on the way to covering this mark.

With both players perhaps not as strong on the return as they would like and facing a decent serve from the opponent, I think four or five competitive sets will be played out and that should see this match surpass the total games line set for the Fourth Round encounter.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: He might have dropped the first set of his tournament at Wimbledon in the Third Round, but Alexander Zverev has made a very strong start as he puts the first week in the books. The day off on Sunday will have been appreciated, but it isn't one that will have made much of a difference to Alexander Zverev who has made comfortable passage in the draw and in a familiar position of playing every other day in a Grand Slam tournament.

The German has looked comfortable on the grass courts and the previous successes at the other Grand Slam tournaments should give Alexander Zverev confidence in trying to put together his best performance at Wimbledon. The wins in the first three Rounds will only add to the belief for a player that has not always found his most consistent level at this tournament, while the numbers being produced by Alexander Zverev have been largely impressive.

The serve has been a big weapon for Alexander Zverev and it is going to be the key to the outcome of this match. While he struggled at times with his return in the Third Round, Alexander Zverev has created at least nine break points in each match played at Wimbledon and the form will be a slight worry for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The young Canadian benefited from an injury to Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round in what was shaping up to be a tough match and that means Felix Auger-Aliassime should be feeling pretty healthy for the second week of this Grand Slam. An impressive build up on the grass courts will be something that Felix Auger-Aliassime will look to use to help him against an opponent that has given him plenty of one-sided defeats in previous Tour meetings.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has a serve and an ability to get on the front foot and play aggressive tennis that should be well suited to the grass courts, but there is plenty of room for improvement on the return. He did not start that well against Nick Kyrgios behind the serve and that is something the Canadian has to avoid if he is going to get the better of Alexander Zverev.

I do think the difference in their ability on the return is going to be a key to the match and the head to head reads a comfortable 3-0 in favour of Alexander Zverev. The big German is the more confident player when it comes to getting balls back into play and finding a way to break serve and I do think it is going to be important to the outcome of this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Zverev has won all three previous Tour matches between these players, although they have not met since October 2020 on a hard court. However, it is difficult to ignore the fact that Zverev has held 88% of the service games played against Felix Auger-Aliassime compared with the 46% mark held by the latter in those head to head matches.

All six sets have been won by Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime has not won more than four games in any of those sets completed. While the grass courts should make the Canadian more effective, I still believe Alexander Zverev is playing the better tennis and his return can be a difference maker in this Fourth Round match as he moves through in three or four sets and covers this mark.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Getting through the first week at Wimbledon and then having Middle Sunday to reset has become part of the annual tradition for Roger Federer, although recent years have become more difficult with injury. That meant he headed into the 2021 Wimbledon tournament with a different feeling and a difficult opening match saw Roger Federer barely move through to the Second Round.

He has looked a lot better in the last two Rounds and Roger Federer will have picked up some vital confidence ahead of the second week when the big matches come very quickly. The performances in the last two matches have also been encouraging to see Roger Federer returning to something like his best and he is a deserved favourite to beat Lorenzo Sonego even if the Italian has been on good form on the grass.

Over the last month Lorenzo Sonego has reached the Final at Eastbourne before losing a tight match to Alex De Minaur, while the Italian has dropped a single set in his three matches at Wimbledon. The serve has been a very big weapon for Sonego and it could be a difference maker for him in this Fourth Round match, although the big test for him will be to try and get more out of the serve and especially against a Champion who is very strong on this surface.

The returning numbers have declined in each of the three matches Lorenzo Sonego has played at Wimbledon, and that has been backed up by the fact he has created fewer break points in each of the three matches as he has progressed through the draw.

Now he will have to deal with Roger Federer's serve which has been key in keeping Richard Gasquet and Cameron Norrie at bay in the last two matches. It looks a challenge for Lorenzo Sonego, but he is going up against a Federer who has yet to really get his return game going to the level he will need to win the title here for the ninth time.

Roger Federer has done enough to secure the last two wins while dropping a single set and this is a match in which it feels like Lorenzo Sonego needs to start quickly. Over the years Roger Federer has found a way to blunt the big serve of opponents and then break them down in the rallies and I do think he will make his move in each of the sets played to get past Lorenzo Sonego.

He can build the pressure on Lorenzo Sonego with his own serve and I think Roger Federer will create the majority of the break points in this match. The former Wimbledon Champion will likely be looking to be more efficient with his break opportunities having struggled to finish off Cameron Norrie and being forced into a fourth set, but Roger Federer is improving his form and I think he can cover this number in a victory.

Karolina Pliskova v Liudmila Samsonova: There is a big opportunity in front of both Karolina Pliskova and Luidmila Samsonova when they meet in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and an open tournament could see either player in a position to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

After a difficult year, Karolina Pliskova has built some momentum by winning each match at this tournament in straight sets and she has rarely been pushed in the last two Rounds. This comes after a tough 2021 season and after losing both pre-Wimbledon grass court matches which suggested Karolina Pliskova was going to be entering another Grand Slam during which she would end up coming up short.

The wins earned will have boosted the confidence and Karolina Pliskova has previously shown enough form on the grass courts to suggest she can go very deep into this tournament. New Grand Slam Champions have become the norm in the Women's side of things over the last few years, but Karolina Pliskova will have to deal with the pressure of knowing her own window is closing and there may not be a better opportunity in front of her.

Time is something that Luidmila Samsonova seems to have on her side and the World Number 65 has won three matches here to put her on course to enter a new career best World Ranking at the end of this tournament. The 22 year old came through the Qualifiers to win a grass court tournament in Berlin and she has backed that up to win three matches in the draw at Wimbledon to build the confidence that will make Luidmila Samsonova very dangerous.

Luidmila Samsonova won each of her last two two matches in three sets though and the numbers suggest the matches are getting much more difficult for the Russian youngster. She has been returning very well at Wimbledon, but Samsonova has begun to see her own serve being attacked as the quality of opponent improves and I think that will be the case here.

She may also not have as much success dealing with the Karolina Pliskova serve which has been a potent weapon for the former World Number 1.

My one worry with Karolina Pliskova is that she has routinely failed to really produce her best at Grand Slam level when the pressure intensifies, but she has only dropped serve twice in her first three matches. Add in the strong returning performances produced by the Czech player and I do think her level has been consistently strong at Wimbledon and that should see Karolina Pliskova move into a position to win this match.

I would not be surprised if this one ends in three sets like the last two Luidmila Samsonova matches at SW19, but this time I think Karolina Pliskova will have enough through the serve to earn some cheaper points. That can be key when the pressure is ramped up and I think Karolina Pliskova will move through to the Quarter Final here with a good looking win to keep the momentum behind her.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda Over 39.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini-Ilya Ivashka Over 33.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev Over 34.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Viktorija Golubic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 49-38, + 12.76 Units (174 Units Staked, + 7.34% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 4-6)

The Premier League title may have been decided, but the race for the top four places has heated up thanks to results this past week.

Even the chase for the European places look likely to go down to the wire, while I think it is difficult to pick the three clubs you believe will be relegated with any kind of confidence. Norwich City look like they have left things too late, but the next month is going to be busy and with big games to be played every few days.

That is something that could be an issue for the FPL players particularly with the depth of squad that some of the top teams have. It is unprecedented times, but I will come onto my thoughts for GW33+ when I get my thoughts about this weekend's Premier League games out of the way first.


Norwich City v Brighton Pick: This is a very big game for bot Norwich City and Brighton with the three points on offer vital in their bids to avoid relegation.

Norwich City are 7 points from safety and look to be cut off now, but a win might just give the players a shot in the arm with five more games to play. The next three games are all against clubs in 15th or lower in the Premier League table so this is the last chance saloon for Daniel Farke's men who will likely have to target three wins if they want to have any chance of avoiding relegation.

Four points from a possible nine since the resumption of the Premier League has given Brighton a gap to the bottom three that may already be too big for those below them to bridge. A 6 point lead to the bottom three is a positive for Graham Potter's team, but Brighton have a difficult looking fixture list and the manager has to be targeting a win that would likely be enough to secure Premier League Football for another season.

Brighton have shown a little resiliency in recent games prior to the 0-3 defeat to Manchester United on Tuesday. They have earned back to back clean sheets at Wolves and Leicester City and not offered a lot of opportunities to those two teams, although Brighton have perhaps given up some of their attacking intent to be a little more solid.

In their three games played, chances have not been flowing for Brighton and I think the layers may have underestimated the chances of seeing a low scoring game here.

Neither Norwich City nor Brighton are playing with a lot of consistency in the final third which may make goals difficult to come by. While neither would be seen as a hugely successful defensive side, both Norwich City and Brighton have shown some toughness in those areas and I think that may see at least one clean sheet produced here.

I honestly would not be surprised if this fixture ended 1-0 either way with the way both Norwich City and Brighton are playing. The odds might not suggest it, but I think one, or both, of these teams will fail to hit the back of the net.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: A late stumble could prove to be very costly for Leicester City who have seen the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Wolves close in on their top four spot. At the turn of the calendar year Leicester City were very short odds to earn a Champions League spot for the 2020/21 season, but they had been struggling before the enforced break and Brendan Rodgers has not found the right formula for them yet.

Draws with Watford and Brighton followed by a defeat to Everton have knocked the confidence from the Leicester City players. The system employed looks like one that opponents are a little more comfortable dealing with and now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have been a stubborn opponent under Roy Hodgson.

Back to back losses might make Crystal Palace vulnerable, but they deserved a lot more than they got from the home defeat to Burnley. The 4-0 loss at Liverpool was surprising, but early injuries might have just taken the wind out of the sails and in general Crystal Palace are a competitive team.

This is a club who Brendan Rodgers won't have forgotten having seen his then Liverpool team blow a 0-3 lead in an eventual 3-3 draw at Selhurst Park that ultimately cost them the title in 2014.

And the Leicester City players won't have good memories of facing Crystal Palace either after losing 0-3 and 1-4 the last two times they have hosted them.

Leicester City were unfortunate to lose at Everton on the chances created, but they have been struggling in the final third out of the break. At the same time they have looked far from secure at the back and only a Kasper Schmeichel penalty save against Brighton has prevented them entering this fixture off the back of three straight defeats.

They won't find it easy against a Crystal Palace team that have limited chances against them by being well organised and looking to break with pace on the counter. The thumping at Liverpool is one poor result, but Crystal Palace had scored in 6 straight away games before that and on current form it is hard to see Leicester City blowing them away.

You have to believe the home team may edge it, but that's largely on the season whole form rather than on recent one. They have not created a lot of chances and Crystal Palace should be frustrating them for long periods and looking to add a third straight victory at the King Power Stadium.

It might be enough to secure a surprise result- Leicester City look far too short regardless here and a one goal defeat for Crystal Palace would at least return the stake.


Manchester United v Bournemouth Pick: Two of the most in-form teams in the Premier League look to be Wolves and Manchester United who are both closing in on the top four places in the table.

At this stage it would be a disappointment if Manchester United don't have enough to finish in the Champions League spots regardless of what happens to Manchester City and their two year ban from European Football.

A win at Brighton during the week was really encouraging from Manchester United who dominated from start to finish and deservedly won on the day. They have not always been at their best away from home so that was a huge victory for United and they should be able to build on that and win a third Premier League game in a row on Saturday.

On the face of things you wouldn't think much of that, but Manchester United have not won three consecutive Premier League games since January 2019 when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer inspired a 6 game winning run in the League having taken over from Jose Mourinho.

The fact it has not happened in 2019/20 is a concern, but Manchester United might be playing as well as they have at any stage at this moment in time. With Bruno Fernandes, Marcos Rashford, Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood in the line up, Manchester United have plenty of creative talent and they have also won 4 in a row at Old Trafford while scoring 13 goals.

These players should be ready to take the game to a Bournemouth team who are coming in off the back of an embarrassing 1-4 home loss to Newcastle United. The fixtures make it difficult to see how Bournemouth can't get out of trouble without earning a couple of surprise results.

However there is a pressure on the players which will make it hard to use this a 'free hit' and Bournemouth will have a hard time containing Manchester United. They were narrowly beaten at Wolves last month, but Manchester United are showing a lot more creativity in the final third than their Champions League chasing rivals and I expect that to show up here.

Manchester United have beaten Watford and Sheffield United by 3-0 scorelines at Old Trafford either side of the three month break. If they can make a fast start as they have in their last couple of Premier League games I do think Manchester United will be too strong for Bournemouth here and they can win by a comfortable margin.

It is never easy to ask a team to clear this level of handicap, but Manchester United are playing well enough to believe they can secure another comfortable win on Saturday.


Wolves v Arsenal Pick: Both Wolves and Arsenal will be aiming for a return to European Football although it is the former who have realistic ambitions of playing in the Champions League next season.

It says a lot about how far Wolves have come under the guidance of Nuno Espirito Santo who had been linked with the vacant job at Arsenal before they turned to Mikel Arteta back in December.

The Portuguese manager has instilled a really attractive playing style at Wolves but he has also found the balance which makes them very difficult to beat. The three wins since the resumption of the Premier League has given Wolves momentum and each has come with a clean sheet, while the side have 5 clean sheets in a row at Molineux.

That should be tested by this Arsenal team who have won 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and who have won back to back games at Southampton and Sheffield United. Mikel Arteta has helped the team look a little better at the back, but Arsenal still have vulnerabilities and you do have to believe that this Wolves team will be well prepared to exploit those.

There is pace in the Wolves team and genuine quality in the final third and I think they are playing well enough to edge to a win here. They don't always create the most chances, but I do think Wolves will be able to do that against this Arsenal team and in Raul Jimenez they have a player who can be clinical when those chances come his way.

I have to respect the recent Arsenal performances since losing back to back games at Manchester City and Brighton. They were unfortunate to lose the second of those and they are a team who have plenty of pace and quality of their own in the final third which can make them dangerous.

Arsenal might not have won a lot of away games, but they haven't lost many either which has to be respected. However Wolves blew them away last season at Molineux and there looks to be enough consistency in the home squad to believe they can find the goals they need to win this one.

Fans of Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United won't be concerned if Wolves were to drop points, but Nuno Espirito Santo's men are playing with confidence and I think they can keep their top four ambitions alive and kicking with a good looking win here.


Chelsea v Watford Pick: The race for the top four looks like it is going to go down to the final day when Chelsea will be hosting Wolves, but they will be looking to bounce back from a shock defeat at West Ham United when they take the field this Saturday.

That defeat has once again opened the door for the likes of Manchester United and Wolves to earn their way into the top four and Chelsea could feel some real pressure by the time this game kicks off.

Depending on results, Chelsea may be as low as 6th in the Premier League table when they head out into an empty Stamford Bridge and that can cause problems for players. It is not easy to express yourselves when knowing how much is on the line, but Frank Lampard will likely shut off the televisions within the Stadium and ask his players to concentrate on their own matters.

Ultimately Chelsea will finish in the top four if they win their remaining six games and that is all the manager will be asking of his players. Take things one game at a time and make sure 100% is given to each fixture, especially as Wednesday night should have taught Chelsea that nothing can be taken for granted in the Premier League.

Chelsea have been better at Stamford Bridge of late and they are facing a Watford team who have looked a little short of confidence in their opening games since the resumption of play. The loss to Southampton at home is a real worry for Nigel Pearson and his Watford team have simply not been as strong on their travels as they have at Vicarage Road which makes that defeat all the more concerning.

The Hornets have not scored in their last 3 away Premier League games and have suffered losses each time. They have looked vulnerable at the back and Watford don't score enough goals which is going to make it very hard to earn the results they need, even if this is a 'nothing to lose' situation with all the pressure on their hosts.

However it may also be a game that Nigel Pearson chooses to rest key names in order to keep them fresh for the home games to come against Norwich City and Newcastle United over the coming days. That might give Chelsea a bit more momentum in a game they should be winning and I do think the home team will prove to be too strong.

Chelsea have not always looked convincing at the back this season, but they have been better in recent home games. That may play a part for a team who do create a lot of chances and I think it may help them win this one by a comfortable margin on the night to make sure they end this weekend in the top four at the least.


Burnley v Sheffield United Pick: Chris Wilder will have been very pleased to be on the right side of a controversial VAR decision which may have shifted the game against Tottenham Hotspur in favour of his Sheffield United team. Instead of conceding moments after taking the lead, Sheffield United were able to manage their 1-0 lead until late goals secured a comfortable win on the day.

It is a big win for Sheffield United who had lost 3 in a row prior to the game on Thursday evening. They had conceded at least twice in each of those losses which includes back to back 3-0 defeats at Newcastle United and Manchester United.

Sheffield United have not scored in their last 3 away Premier League games so that is something they need to address if they want to finish in the top seven and potentially earn a European spot for next season.

However they have not really created a lot of chances in those games either and it won't get much easier when they travel to Turf Moor to take on a Burnley team off consecutive League wins. Sean Dyche has done yet another fantastic job for Burnley and it would be a real blow to the club if the manager decides he is not going to be supported to help the club take the next step forward.

For now Sean Dyche is continuing to do his job and the players are clearly behind him judging by the hard work they have put into the last two games. Both have ended in 1-0 wins for Burnley against Watford and Crystal Palace and this is a ground on which Burnley have really found some of their best football in terms of results and chances created.

The absence of some key attacking players is an issue for Burnley, but they may still have a slight edge over Sheffield United with the few extra days of rest in the legs.

Both teams will work hard and look to exploit set pieces to give themselves the edge, but I think Burnley might be in a better spot to earn the points. In their home games either side of the three month break, Burnley have created a lot of chances with a system that the players are familiar with and that might be problematic for Sheffield United who have looked vulnerable in all 3 away games played since the resumption of play.

The win over Tottenham Hotspur will give Sheffield United some confidence, but I think the narrow edge has to be given to Burnley in this early Sunday kick off in the Premier League.


Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: There is no doubt that the points on offer in this Premier League game are much more important to West Ham United than Newcastle United, but that does not mean that the home team are going to want to roll over.

Steve Bruce wants the players to prove they deserve to be playing for the club going forward and especially if new owners are willing to open the chequebook for the club. There is also an outside chance that Newcastle United could push for a European spot with a strong finish, but ultimately all Bruce wants to see his team playing hard.

The 1-4 win at Bournemouth shows this is a team capable of doing that and Newcastle United have also been very difficult to beat at home. They have not conceded many goals here and Newcastle United have players that can create chances which is going to be a problem for West Ham United who have struggled defensively.

At least West Ham United will be playing with a lot more confidence having shown what they are capable of in their 3-2 win over Chelsea on Wednesday. It was a real surprise to see West Ham United play as well as they did that day considering how poorly they have begun in the resumption of Premier League Football and the three points earned could be vital in their bid to avoid the drop.

David Moyes will believe his team have something to build upon here, but West Ham United have lost 7 away Premier League games in a row. They have given up a lot of chances in that run and Newcastle United are good enough to take advantage too.

I can't help feel the home team would be a much bigger favourite if this game was played before the Wednesday night results. West Ham United did win here last season, which has to be respected, but they have struggled for away goals and are still missing some important pieces.

I expect some issues will be something David Moyes will want to address in the transfer window, but at this moment I think it will be difficult for West Ham United. They invested a lot in the game on Wednesday and it might be tough for the players to reach those standards again.

Newcastle United have been strong at home which makes it hard to see them losing and I do think they may earn a narrow victory here to keep European hopes alive for a few more days.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: Jurgen Klopp was not impressed by the questions he received from the media at the end of the 4-0 defeat to Manchester City on Thursday and the manager is one that won't allow his Liverpool team to drop their standards now the title has been secured.

Ultimately the next month is about preparing for the defence of that tile which will begin in September and I have no doubt that Klopp will be demanding a much stronger all around performance.

In public he was not very critical of his players, but I imagine Klopp will have been seething about the embarrassing defeat for a couple of days. This is the first time Liverpool will play at Anfield as Champions and even without the fans you have to expect the whole club wants to mark that occasion in the right way.

Even before the suspension of English Football, Liverpool had been producing contrasting performances at home and away. The defeat to Manchester City means they have gone 5 away games without scoring a goal, but Liverpool have won 13 in a row at Anfield in normal time and crushed Crystal Palace 4-0 here since the resumption of play.

The venue and the need for redemption for the home team does not bode well for Aston Villa who are desperate for the points to help them move out of the bottom three. West Ham United's win over Chelsea on Wednesday has put more pressure on Aston Villa who have not won any of 9 games in all competitions and have been beaten 7 times in that run.

It should be noted that Aston Villa have looked a little more stubborn defensively coming out of the break than they had before the suspension of the League. That could be key in turning the results they need, but a lack of goals is a concern and I think they will have a difficult day on Sunday.

Liverpool do look like a team that will have too much in the final third for their visitors and I think that may lead to a relatively comfortable win when all is said and done. They will have a lot to prove after Thursday and Liverpool have been strong here all season which leads me to believe they can not only win this fixture, but do so by a couple of goals at the least.

More than half of Aston Villa's away defeats in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I do think that will be the case here.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: Nothing could be gained in terms of the Premier League title race in 2019/20, but Manchester City clearly came out on Thursday to make a statement to the new Champions Liverpool. You could see it in the faces of the players when performing the 'guard of honour' for their visitors and manager Pep Guardiola couldn't get away quick enough either.

The 4-0 win for Manchester City has set the statement for next season that they will be expecting to be much closer to the top spot.

Even this season the underlying numbers suggest Manchester City haven't had a lot of luck on their side, but Pep Guardiola will know some additions will need to be made to bolster the squad.

That is something that both Manchester City and Southampton will be preparing behind the scenes, but on Sunday they will go with what they have. Manchester City's poor away run in the Premier League is a real surprise, but this is a team who have been creating chances and playing some very good football out of the resumption of play and the next few weeks is all about building momentum for the FA Cup and Champions League challenges ahead.

Having played on Thursday you do have to believe that Manchester City will make changes to freshen things up and some big names will be ready to come in. Even with those changes this is a very strong team and one that will give Southampton plenty of problems, especially at St Mary's where The Saints have simply not performed as well as they would have liked.

You have to respect this team though because not many would have recovered from the 0-9 home loss to Leicester City in the manner that they did. A lot of credit has to be given to manager Ralph Hasenhuttl too who has not moved away from his principles and that has led to the best season since 2016/17 having flirted with relegation in the last two.

Southampton will attack with pace and in Danny Ings they have someone who can punish Manchester City if the visitors are not at their best.

However this Southampton team have had some problems defensively which the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal have exploited in visits here either side of the three month break. Manchester City are a much better attacking outfit than both and I do think there will be enough attacking talent on display to lead to a comfortable win for the visitors.

In 2 of their last 3 visits to St Mary's Manchester City have scored three times and that has led to comfortable wins. I expect Southampton to play a part here, but Manchester City can back up the success over Liverpool by producing a good win on Sunday evening.


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures comes from Tottenham Hotspur's shiny new Stadium, although there are dark clouds gathering over this part of North London.

The arrival of Jose Mourinho as manager was supposed to spark a squad that many felt were underachieving, but they head into this fixture in 9th place in the Premier League table and behind rivals Arsenal. The table may look considerably worse for Tottenham Hotspur fans at kick off, but Jose Mourinho will be demanding a big reaction to the 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Thursday night.

His task is to make sure the players refocus after some miserable defending in the defeat at Bramall Lane, while also making better decisions in the final third. A bit of luck that was missing in the last game won't go amiss either, but Tottenham Hotspur will know they need to be at their best to beat an Everton team who have performed very well under Carlo Ancelotti.

Everton are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games out of the restart and have won back to back fixtures, although they were clinging on at the end of their 2-1 win over Leicester City. The manager will be pleased with the three points which has reinvigorated Everton's challenge for a top seven finish, but it is games like this one they will need to win in order to achieve the aims set out by Ancelotti.

The last trip to London ended in a miserable 4-0 loss for Everton, but prior to that they were very unlucky to lose 3-2 at Arsenal. The potential absence of Richarlison would hurt, but if the Brazilian is ready to go this is an Everton team who have created chances wherever they have played.

However they are not all that convincing at the back and the attacking options open to Tottenham Hotspur should have some spaces to exploit. Despite the loss on Thursday, Spurs did show some good intent when getting forward and you have to believe they will make better decisions in this one.

Games between these clubs in recent years have been action packed and many have ended up with three or more goals shared out. There were enough chances for that to be the outcome in their 1-1 draw earlier this season, but the previous 5 between Tottenham Hotspur and Everton have ended with at least three goals scored.

4 of the last 5 hosted by Spurs have ended the same way and I do think both teams will have their chances to score in this one. The three points are key for both clubs so neither manager is expected to settle for a point and it could lead to another high-scoring game between these teams on Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Norwich City-Brighton BTTS NO
Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap
Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur-Everton Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 33+

It was not the best week for the FPL game as I missed on my Captain and got very little from a number of the selected players.

At least I managed to hold onto two transfers to use this week, the one in which I am playing my Bench Boost with the top teams all facing clubs they should be beating.

My concerns come from the likelihood that teams will be rotating their squads, but that is why I am sticking with the same Captain I have used for the last two weeks. Anthony Martial should start for Manchester United who have Bournemouth to come to Old Trafford and I am expecting more from a player who didn't play a big part in the 0-3 win at Brighton in the last GameWeek, at least not from a Fantasy point of view.

Injuries and loss of form makes the two transfers fairly easy to make as Harvey Barnes and Joelinton will be removed from my team. The former looks a little out of favour at Leicester City who are also not showing a lot of positive form, while the latter picked up a knock during the week and may not be available on Sunday anyway.

I do wonder if the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Roberto Firmino and Mason Mount will get the minutes I would like from a Bench Boost Chip, but I can't really do much about the situation with games being played every few days. I would be disappointed if they didn't all get some time on the pitch this weekend, although it would be preferable for Fantasy purposes that all start against 'weak' opponents.

Well things were supposed to be that simple until news broke that Bruno Fernandes may be a doubt for the game against Bournemouth. Reports have suggested he came off worse in a collision with Paul Pogba and both players are doubtful for the home game and that does cloud my thinking.

It may be reasonable to wait until Saturday morning before a final decision is made, but it is possible that I am going to take a hit to remove the two players I mentioned and also to replace a player that may not take part.

Like I've mentioned, I do think this is the best week in which to use the Bench Boost and so I am going to play with these options and make a final decision in the morning ahead of the 11:30am deadline.


There are players that can come in and make a difference with the likes of Phil Foden, Allan Saint-Maximin, Dwight Gayle, Marcus Rashford, David Silva, Christian Pulisic, Willian and Tammy Abraham looking like they can make a difference to the team, but again it may be best to check my Twitter page and see how my final thoughts break down.


Overall I am pretty happy with the squad going into a Bench Boost week- the defence has every chance of returning a number of clean sheets and I do feel I am in a position to have all fifteen players return some points.

The squad is looking like this before my final transfers have been made:

GK: Alisson, Emiliano Martinez

DEF: Harry Maguire, Virgil Van Dijk, Justin James, Willy Boly, Federico Fernandez

MID: Anthony Martial, Bruno Fernandes, Harvey Barnes, Mason Mount, Kevin De Bruyne

FWD: Raul Jimenez, Roberto Firmino, Joelinton

Wimbledon Tennis Day 5 Picks 2019 (July 5th)

Thursday was a more productive day for the Tennis Picks, although some poor fortune has been going against the selections over the last couple of days.

On Friday we move onto the Third Round of Wimbledon and below you can see the Picks made for the day, although I won't have any analysis accompanying them today.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Milos Raonic Over 43.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Ugo Humbert Over 36.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 31-23, + 10.34 Units (108 Units Staked, + 9.57% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2018 (July 5th)

The first couple of days of the Wimbledon 2018 tournament had been good ones for the Tennis Picks, but Wednesday proved to be a much more difficult day.

With some huge upsets in the women's draw it means I have lost a couple of my outright selections already in this tournament which is a blow, but there is plenty of time to get this tournament into a position to return with a positive number.


On Thursday I will be just posting the Picks from the remaining Second Round matches which you can see below. There look to be a number of options again on a loaded day of tennis, although expect to see at least one more rain delay having seen the tournament interrupted on Wednesday.


MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios-Robin Haase Over 35.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro-Feliciano Lopez Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2017 (July 5th)

The Second Round begins at Wimbledon on Wednesday and it sounds like the weather will be heating up over the next few days, although there are still the chance of seeing rain to disrupt proceedings everywhere but Centre Court.

For the most part there should be plenty of tennis on offer for the fans both watching around the grounds and at home on their television/laptop/tablet/mobile.

I have to say that Tuesday was a frustrating day mainly because of the really poor luck when it came to tie-breakers. In the matches I picked there were eight breakers on Tuesday and the players I picked went 1-7 in those which cost me at least two more winners.

Milos Raonic won two tie-breakers to prevent the cover of the total games, while Julia Goerges missed a match point in one and eventually was beaten by an injured Lesia Tsurenko.

Horacio Zeballos lost two tie-breakers to Paolo Lorenzi despite being the better server and returner on the day and that has added up the frustration on what was looking like a decent day at one point.

Hopefully the stats will begin to produce the right results as we move into the Second Round on Wednesday after what has been a disappointing start to the Wimbledon tournament. At least all of the outright picks have moved into the Second Round, although a number of those will be out on the court on Wednesday too.


Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Dustin Brown: I was one of those in attendance on Centre Court two years ago when Dustin Brown beat Rafael Nadal and that wasn't the first time he has beaten a former Wimbledon Champion at The Championships. The Brown game is well suited to the grass as most will know, but he wasn't happy with the conditions in the First Round win over Joao Sousa with suggestions that Brown felt the courts are playing slower than they have before.

That won't be good news for him if that is true, but especially not when facing a returner of the ability of Andy Murray. For all the talk of 'walking with a limp' and not being at 100% for this tournament, Murray allayed those fears with a very strong performance in the First Round and said afterwards that he is in 'no pain' on the court.

Of course Murray isn't going to disclose injury information to the rest of the players in the draw, but I do tend to think that he is going to be able to come through the first week of the event and then become a real threat to win for the third time in SW19. Murray's return is going to give Brown a few problems and the sometimes iffy shot selection from the German could lead to his downfall in this one.

Murray was serving very effectively in the First Round and I do think he will be able to limit the amount of success Brown will have on the return. You can't completely close out Brown because he will take swings at the return and is capable of stringing together three or four flashy points to get into a position to break serve, but for the most part Murray should have control.

That should give him time to attack the Brown serve and I expect Murray will make enough returns to see the German offer up a few breaks of serve. This is a big number for Murray to cover, but he could pull away after taking a tight first set and I will look for the World Number 1 to secure a 7-6, 6-3, 6-2 kind of win in this one.


Jiri Vesely v Fabio Fognini: The layers are finding it hard to separate Jiri Vesely and Fabio Fognini in this Second Round match, but I think they have perhaps favoured the wrong player. The grass courts have never been a favourite for Fognini and I am not going to read too much into his First Round win over Dmitry Tursunov who has barely played any tennis this year and is coasting towards his retirement.

The Italian hasn't played a warm up tournament for Wimbledon since 2013 and Fognini's best effort in that time is reaching the Third Round. Even that year he beat two Qualifiers to get through two matches and all of the wins Fognini has had in that time have come against players he would expect to beat.

Fognini's returning numbers are not as strong on the grass and I think someone like Vesely can keep him under enough pressure with his own serve. He has to know that Fognini will offer up some chances on his own serve as long as Vesely isn't chasing the match and the Czech player did reach the Fourth Round here last year.

His lack of grass court tennis over the last month has to be a concern, as does the fact that Vesely had to play five sets in the First Round and also has a poor head to head with Fognini. Those are factors, but not critical ones for me at this stage of a Grand Slam and Vesely's numbers on the grass have been decent enough to think he can win this match.

His First Round opponent had the benefit of a number of grass court wins which made it tighter than Vesely may have liked, but ultimately I like Vesely to show he has more in the tank and beat a player like Fognini who isn't that happy on this surface.


Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I may be a sucker for punishment as I am looking to back Benoit Paire for a second match in a row after being undone by his notorious ability to go walkabout in a match. He began in the First Round so comfortably before losing his way, but Paire did enough to make it through to the Second Round.

Now he faces a dangerous compatriot in Pierre-Hugues Herbert who is best known for the strong performances on the Doubles circuit rather than the Singles circuit. Herbert benefited from Nick Kyrgios' injury in the First Round when leading 2-0 in sets, but there was no doubt that the talented Australian was restricted in that match and not up to his usual standards.

The grass should be a good surface for Herbert anyway with his strong first serve backed up by decent volleying which has been crafted on the Doubles circuit. He will be able to put pressure on Paire with the serve, but I do like the way the latter has been returning and I think he can get the ball back into some tough positions for his fellow Frenchman.

My real reason for wanting to back Paire here is that the Herbert return game is certainly not one that thrives on any surface. Over the last few months that has been a real issue for Herbert when playing Singles tennis, although I will be the first to admit that Paire is someone who can gift away breaks of serve at any point.

However I do think Paire can do enough to recover the mental lapses he will certainly go through and cover this number even if the match does go into a fourth or even a fifth set. While I can see him dropping a set with a break given away, Paire can break the Herbert serve with the returning numbers he has been producing and I can see him getting through with a 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.


Jerzy Janowicz-Lucas Pouille over 39.5 games: A Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon in 2016 and winning the title in Stuttgart last month suggests Lucas Pouille is very comfortable on the grass. He has played well, although the raw numbers suggest it will be hard to sustain those results barring a significant improvement.

That improvement really needs to be shown on the returning part of his game where the numbers don't support the fact that he has been able to get through as many matches with wins as he has. The Pouille return numbers over the course of 2017 haven't been too bad, but when you look at how he has done on the grass it has been much tougher for him.

He has won around 10% fewer return points on the grass and breaks of serve have been hard to come by for Pouille and there was little change in his First Round win over Malek Jaziri. The latter doesn't have the best serve, but proved a tough enough nut to crack that it took four tough sets for Pouille to get across the line.

What has been important is Pouille has been able to protect his serve very well and that is going to be a key part of this match against the big hitting Jerzy Janowicz. The Pole has struggled with his own return numbers, but has a big serve that can be difficult to break when he is feeling his tennis and Janowicz could drag Pouille into a real scrap in this one.

There are moments when Janowicz will throw in some terrible decisions with his shot selection that may open the door for Pouille, but it would be a real surprise to me if we don't see tight sets in this one. Neither player has returned serve as well as they would like, and both serve very big. It will need three sets to get over this number, but I think we are going to see at least four sets and I will look for the total games to be surpassed.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Any player who comes through the tough Qualifiers to make the main draw and then win a match to move into the Second Round has to be respected. However Simone Bolelli himself will tell you that this is a significant step up from the level of players he has been beating, while the grass courts have not been his best surface in his career.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga does come in as a pretty big favourite to win this match, but he will have to be wary about what the Italian can produce on his day. Bolelli will be confident having won the four matches I have mentioned, while his last two exits at Wimbledon in 2014 and 2015 both came in five set losses to Kei Nishikori.

That arguably says more about Nishikori's lack of punch on serve than anything else though as Bolelli has routinely struggled with his return on this surface in his career. His break percentage is incredibly low, but that's down to a pretty low amount of return points won and now facing a serve like Tsonga's is going to be a big test for the Qualifier.

I am not anticipating too many breaks of the Tsonga serve, but the Frenchman will feel he can get into the Bolelli service games considering there has been a slight deterioration in the numbers for the Italian. Tsonga has been returning serve better than ever before in 2017 and he will be confident coming in off a one-sided win over Cameron Norrie.

Those returning numbers have been very solid on the grass too and I am expecting Tsonga to wear down Bolelli emotionally with his powerful serves. That should lead to some errors on the Bolelli service games in a 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 win for one of the dark horses here.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Donald Young: Despite a poor recent record at Wimbledon, I am going to back Rafael Nadal to cover another big spread in the Second Round having helped produce a straight-forward win in the First Round. It does feel Nadal is perhaps coming into this tournament as the healthiest he has felt in years and he looked supremely confident in his First Round over John Millman.

In all honesty that felt like a really good match up for Nadal and it proved to be the case on the day. This time it could be tougher against Donald Young who has been playing some decent tennis on the grass, but I think the American may have overachieved a touch over the last month.

Young is serving pretty well on the grass, but he has had his issues when facing the very best players on the Tour who are able to get after his serve. Breaking serve against the top players has not been easy for him either, while Young's numbers when facing fellow left-handed players does not bode well for him.

They can pick up the angles off the serve a lot better, and Nadal is the very best southpaw out on the Tour. The Spaniard has been playing arguably his best tennis of his career and he has been really strong at breaking opponents in the Slams this season, which was again on display in his win in the First Round. Nadal picks the left-handed serve when he sees it in front of him too and I think Young will be under immense pressure in this one.

Nadal has not just been winning sets in recent times, but he seems to produce double breaks of serve a number of times and I think that is a key reason I want to back him. While it looks a big number, Nadal is capable of producing a 6-1 or 6-2 set at least once which will put him in a strong position and I think Young may just struggle to stay with what many will feel is the best male player in the world at this moment in time.


Gilles Muller win 3-1 v Lukas Rosol: He is most well known for beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but the career never really kicked on from there for Lukas Rosol. These days he doesn't even make automatic entry for the Grand Slam events as injury and a loss of form have affected him.

However you do have to think the grass courts suit his game and winning four matches over the last week can only stand him in good stead for a tough Second Round match with the in-form Gilles Muller. The serve has not been working as well as Rosol would like, but he certainly has enough pop from that shot to put Muller under pressure with what is generally a limited return game.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Muller and been the key to his success over the last month. He isn't giving too much away but Rosol has returned well when playing left-handed players and he certainly has the kind of power that can smack a few winners off the return to find his way into a promising position in this match.

Sustaining the purple patches has been an issue for Rosol throughout his career, but he certainly is someone who can perform for long enough to take a set off of Muller in this one. Winning the match and adding to the 2-0 head to head looks a much longer shot with the way Muller has been playing, especially as Rosol has a tendency to throw in one or two really loose service games.

Muller going out to Rosol would be a big upset for me, but it would be surprising if it all goes his way and a small interest on a four set win for the favourite is the call.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: Big handicaps can be incredibly difficult for a player like Roberto Bautista Agut to cover because they are much more reliant on the return than the serve. However, the Bautista Agut serve is actually an under-rated weapon for him, especially when playing some the players outside of the very best on the Tour.

In a match like this one, the Spaniard will feel he has enough pop from the first serve to set himself up to dictate the rallies. Bautista Agut is facing Peter Gojowcyzk who is a threat having come through the Qualifiers, but who has some key numbers going against his chances of springing the upset in this one.

Gojowcyzk simply hasn't returned very effectively on the grass even if he has overachieved in that regards over his last four matches. This could be an issue for him even against someone like Roberto Bautista Agut and I expect that will mean that the German is under pressure to retain his own serve to keep this one competitive.

To give him his credit, Gojowcyzk doesn't have a bad serve, but he is facing one of the stronger returners out there. While Bautista Agut has struggled against some of the top players when it comes to his return, he does tend to feast on players lower down the totem pole and I think that is going to be very important for him to help him cover this number.

At the Grand Slam level, Bautista Agut is breaking at a quite remarkable 50% over his last three tournaments and I think he will work his way through to a 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 win in this Second Round match.


Marin Cilic win 3-1 v Florian Mayer: There was plenty to like about the way Marin Cilic dismissed Philipp Kohlschreiber in the First Round and that has continued what has been a very good month for him. If you're looking for a dark horse for the Wimbledon title outside of the 'big four', Marin Cilic certainly has a lot of tools worth giving a second look.

The serve is the obvious strength of the Cilic game, but his return is what makes him so dangerous on the grass. While many players can struggle with that aspect on the grass, Cilic is able to be very aggressive no matter who is in front of him and it is a reason I have picked him to reach the Semi Final here at the least.

It is the first couple of Rounds where I think Cilic had some dangers, but perhaps the way he saw off Kohslchreiber is a sign that he isn't going to have too many issues. However I do think Florian Mayer can at least challenge Cilic with the way he has been playing over the last month and the fact he has had solid runs at Wimbledon in the past.

The Mayer serve has performed well enough to give the veteran his chances, although the real question for him is going to be whether Mayer can make enough effective returns over the course of the match. It seems unlikely with how big Cilic serves as well as the incredible hold numbers on the grass over the last month.

That strong serving was again a highlight of the Cilic win in the First Round and it will be tough to slow him down. Mayer can throw in enough variation to at least baffle Cilic at times and I think his serving could be good enough to take a set against an opponent he has played with success before. Overall I expect the majority of the play to be had by Cilic and I think he will be too good, although a small interest in him heading through in four sets is my pick.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: If you like your tennis filled with big hitting winners from all angles around the court, the match between Madison Keys and Camila Giorgi is going to be right up your street.

Both players have enjoyed plenty of success on the grass courts through their career and they have the capabilities of running through service games with big serves being backed up by powerful groundstrokes. Camila Giorgi is someone who can raise her game for the big matches, but she will have to be a little better serving than she was in her First Round win over Alize Cornet.

For the most part she can do that, but Giorgi has a habit of giving away too many Double Faults and an opponent like Keys can certainly attack the second serve to force the former to go for a little more and make those mistakes. Keys has a very strong return game on the grass courts, and she can certainly earn her opportunities to break the Giorgi serve.

There is a concern about the wrist procedure Keys had between the French Open and Wimbledon, but she showed how dangerous she can be with a strong serving day against Nao Hibino in the First Round. The Keys serve can be a huge weapon on the grass courts and I think she can just about get the better of Giorgi in this one.

I would not be surprised to see this one going into a final set decider, but Giorgi is likely to drop one set with a double break of serve and that should mean Keys has a chance to cover even if the match goes the distance. I can see the American coming through with a 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 kind of win to continue going under the radar as she moves into the Third Round here.


Donna Vekic + 4.5 games v Johanna Konta: When this Second Round match was put together, I thought Johanna Konta would be the obvious favourite, but the game handicap would be at least two games fewer than what we have seen. The Nottingham Champion looks a little under-rated in this one and I think Donna Vekic is capable of making the games count.

There has been an improvement in the Vekic performances in 2017 and it can be hard to forget she is only 21 years old having been on the Tour for as long as she has. That makes me think this is an improving player whose numbers are backing that up and it also makes her a dangerous opponent for the home hope.

The improvement has come in the service stats in particularly for Vekic and helped her win the title in Nottingham a few weeks ago. Vekic will feel she can return better than she has shown so far on the grass, but she has been good enough to win plenty of matches and I think Konta has to be aware of the dangers in front of her.

Konta has been playing well on the grass, but you can't ignore the fall she had a few days ago in Eastbourne. She wasn't tested much in the First Round, but the big hitting Vekic is certainly going to exert some more pressure on the British player and this feels like it could be a match that goes into a third set.

That will make it difficult for Konta to cover if that is the case, and Vekic's win in the First Round was very impressive which shows she is still in some good form. The return was working in that win for Vekic, while the serve continues to be strong and I will take the games in this one.


Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: If you are not quite playing at your best then someone like Madison Brengle could be a really troubling opponent to face. However that isn't the case for Petra Kvitova and the favourite for the Wimbledon title should have too much for Brengle when they meet in the Second Round.

After a strong win in the First Round, Kvitova refuses to call herself the favourite and all despite winning a strong tournament in Birmingham last month. However the return from the hand injury suffered in an attack by an intruder at her home continues to be a factor as Kvitova feels she is too undercooked to really win the title in Wimbledon.

Being a two time winner though means there are only a handful of challenges that Kvitova really has to face here. One of those doesn't feel like Brengle though as she has struggled behind her serve and even her return statistics have not been very good this past month.

That means Brengle is likely to be put under real pressure by Kvitova who has been producing some special numbers on the grass since making the move from the French Open. The serve is going to be tough to break for Brengle and Kvitova will feel she is going to have opportunities to break the Brengle serve in almost every one of the American's service games.

Brengle does have a winning record against Kvitova but she was perhaps fortunate to split two matches in 2016. On the grass and on the form Kvitova has been producing, I can only see a fairly routine win for the Czech player as she covers what may look like a big number of games.


Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 games v Heather Watson: There are times that a player can build some real momentum which can carry through for a few weeks on the court. That is what Heather Watson has to be hoping having produced a really strong run in Eastbourne after a poor twelve months has meant she needed a Wild Card to get into the main Wimbledon draw.

The British player has been producing some quality serves when put under pressure and Watson has been returning as effectively as ever on the grass courts. Her strong performance in an ITF event before the Semi Final run in Eastbourne will encourage Watson who made a blistering start to Wimbledon with a routine win.

However this is a big test for Watson as she faces the much improved Anastasija Sevastova who won the title in Mallorca last month. The grass courts have not usually been where Sevastova has been able to produce her best tennis, but she was serving well enough to think she can have success.

It is the return game of both Watson and Sevastova which is going to be key to this match and both have been effective on the grass. You have to think that Watson is currently playing at a pretty unsustainable level considering her overall form and I think Sevastova has played with a lot more consistency over the course of 2017.

Sevastova has been a little better at protecting her second serve and also improved her returning numbers which looks to be good enough to earn the win. It might go three sets, but Sevastova is capable of winning a set by a wide margin and she can cover this number.


Radu Albot to win a set v Steve Johnson: This is a pick that I am writing last because Radu Albot's First Round match had to be completed on Tuesday. The good news for Albot is he did not have to play for too long on Tuesday so he should have enough rest in time for this Second Round match, and I have a feeling that his opponent is being over-rated by the layers.

All credit has to be given to Steve Johnson for continuing to play through the pain of losing his father, although I do think that has had an affect on his performances. That is no surprise when you delve into how close Johnson was with his father, but I can't allow my sympathy to cover what looks a decent angle.

The grass courts should be a surface that suits Johnson, but he has seen his limited return game exposed on the surface. The numbers are generally down on both serve and return for Johnson and he has lost matches to players he was hugely favoured to beat, while sets have been dropped thanks to a slip in his service games.

Johnson will still get plenty of games through without any issues, but he is facing an opponent in Albot who has played better on the grass than ever before. There were signs in 2016 that Albot was understanding the way to approach grass matches and he has taken that on in 2017 with his numbers showing strong improvement.

That continued in the First Round and Albot has previously upset Johnson on an indoor hard court which will give him plenty of confidence. The layers think the American is going to win this with ease, but I think the numbers are suggesting an upset is possible and I am going to back Albot to win one set at the least at odds against.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jerzy Janowicz-Lucas Pouille Over 39.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Muller Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marin Cilic Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Radu Albot to Win a Set @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 10-11-3, - 1.80 Units (40 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)