The last Middle Sunday that will ever be used at Wimbledon has come and gone and that also means we are set for the last ever Manic Monday, a day that was considered the best day of Grand Slam tennis fans will get to see on the Tour.
The entire Fourth Round is scheduled to be completed on Monday, but from 2022 Wimbledon will join the other Grand Slams in playing every day from the opening day to the Final and that also means the Fourth Round will be split over two days in the years ahead.
As a fan I am massively disappointed, but I do have an opportunity to be at the grounds on Monday and I am looking forward to the drama unfolding all around.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Cristian Garin: It was a tougher than expected Third Round match for Novak Djokovic, but I think he partly lost a bit of focus as the crowd got behind his opponent. Ultimately making it through to the second week of Wimbledon and extending his winning run at the tournament to seventeen matches is all that Novak Djokovic will have cared about and it would be a big upset if he is not able to make the Quarter Final yet again.
Despite the slightly tougher match, Novak Djokovic has won nine sets in a row since surprisingly dropping the opener against Jack Draper. He has not spent too long on the courts and Novak Djokovic has been serving really well, while we all know what the World Number 1 is capable of when it comes to the return of serve.
Confidence is not going to be a problem for Novak Djokovic and he is playing a clay court specialist who has made a run at Wimbledon in unexpected fashion.
Cristian Garin has needed five sets, four sets and then four sets to win his matches at Wimbledon and I have to credit the Chilean for taking advantage of a largely kind looking draw. You still have to win your matches though and Garin has to be given credit for that, although I do worry about his overall level and whether he is going to be good enough to keep up with what I am expecting to be a much stronger Novak Djokovic than the one we saw on Friday.
He is returning well enough to at least feel he can have some successes, but Cristian Garin will have some very tough stretches in this match and I do think that is going to see Novak Djokovic take control of the match and take it on.
Their sole previous meeting on the Tour has come on a hard court and it was won comfortably by Novak Djokovic in straight sets. On that day he was able to break in 44% of return games played and I do think the match up is a relatively comfortable one for Novak Djokovic who should not feel under a lot of pressure over the course of this one.
The first couple of sets may be fairly competitive, but from there Novak Djokovic should be able to make comfortable passage to what should be a Quarter Final scheduled to be played on Tuesday. Novak Djokovic has broken at least four times in all three of his matches at Wimbledon and I think he can do slightly better against Cristian Garin which will set him up for the cover of a big mark.
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It has been a strange time for all, but tennis can throw up these moments where you seem to be running into the same opponent on a regular basis. That is what Marton Fucsovics has to be feeling when noticing he is up against Andrey Rublev for the fifth time in 2021.
The previous matches has seen Marton Fucsovics withdraw before taking the court once, but the other three completed matches have all been won by Andrey Rublev. The worry for the Hungarian is that each of the last three matches have been won a little more comfortably by Andrey Rublev and the match up is one that has not favoured Marton Fucsovics who has only held serve in 69% of service games played and has yet to break the Andrey Rublev serve.
Playing on the grass courts might actually favour Fucsovics more than their previous hard court matches, but Andrey Rublev reached the Final in Halle in the warm up for Wimbledon and he has looked comfortable in his three matches won so far in SW19. The Russian has been serving really well, but the key to his performances has been the amount of breaks of serve he has been producing and this has to be a worry for Marton Fucsovics.
The latter has upset the odds a couple of times already at Wimbledon, but he had not been at his best in the warm up events and I do wonder if there is going to be a real mental obstacle to overcome against an opponent who has dominated their matches in 2021. Playing on the grass will help as I have mentioned, but Marton Fucsovics has been a little up and down on the surface throughout his professional career and I think this will be a tough match for him.
The serve has been working well for Marton Fucsovics so far in this tournament, but I expect Andrey Rublev to really put him under pressure with his returning ability. Having produced at least five breaks of serve in each of his three wins, I think Rublev is likely going to have too much for Marton Fucsovics and will eventually begin to grind down an opponent that he has regularly gotten the better of throughout the season already.
Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda over 39.5 games: It has been a solid run through the draw for Karen Khachanov who has previously performed very well on the grass courts, but the last month has been much more difficult for him. With that in mind it has been a surprising run into the second week at Wimbledon, although Karen Khachanov has had a decent draw.
The win over Frances Tiafoe in the Third Round was impressive considering the form of the American, but another level may need to be found by Karen Khachanov if he is going to move past Sebastian Korda.
The young player may not have a lot of grass court experience, but wins over Alex De Minaur and Dan Evans have been impressive and Sebastian Korda comes from a hugely athletic family which suggests he is not going to be intimidated by entering the second week of a Grand Slam tournament. In saying that, the young player will have to be performing at close to his best to have an opportunity to earn another upset in the 2021 Wimbledon tournament and Sebastian Korda has to serve well to get past this opponent after a tight win in the Third Round over Daniel Evans.
In reality neither of these players have really played that well on the grass courts in preparation for Wimbledon and both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda have overachieved in terms of the expectations they would have had before the tournament began.
There is a similarity in the return numbers, but the edge has to be given to the Russian player who has the stronger serving stats so far at the tournament. Before Wimbledon began, both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda held 80% of service games they had played on the grass courts, but it is Korda who has had a significant edge in terms of return figures.
Karen Khachanov has the superior performances in this tournament, but he has not played the same kind of opponent as Sebastian Korda. That may be telling with the numbers as similar as they are, but I do think both players will win a set and that can see them well on the way to covering this mark.
With both players perhaps not as strong on the return as they would like and facing a decent serve from the opponent, I think four or five competitive sets will be played out and that should see this match surpass the total games line set for the Fourth Round encounter.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: He might have dropped the first set of his tournament at Wimbledon in the Third Round, but Alexander Zverev has made a very strong start as he puts the first week in the books. The day off on Sunday will have been appreciated, but it isn't one that will have made much of a difference to Alexander Zverev who has made comfortable passage in the draw and in a familiar position of playing every other day in a Grand Slam tournament.
The German has looked comfortable on the grass courts and the previous successes at the other Grand Slam tournaments should give Alexander Zverev confidence in trying to put together his best performance at Wimbledon. The wins in the first three Rounds will only add to the belief for a player that has not always found his most consistent level at this tournament, while the numbers being produced by Alexander Zverev have been largely impressive.
The serve has been a big weapon for Alexander Zverev and it is going to be the key to the outcome of this match. While he struggled at times with his return in the Third Round, Alexander Zverev has created at least nine break points in each match played at Wimbledon and the form will be a slight worry for Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The young Canadian benefited from an injury to Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round in what was shaping up to be a tough match and that means Felix Auger-Aliassime should be feeling pretty healthy for the second week of this Grand Slam. An impressive build up on the grass courts will be something that Felix Auger-Aliassime will look to use to help him against an opponent that has given him plenty of one-sided defeats in previous Tour meetings.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has a serve and an ability to get on the front foot and play aggressive tennis that should be well suited to the grass courts, but there is plenty of room for improvement on the return. He did not start that well against Nick Kyrgios behind the serve and that is something the Canadian has to avoid if he is going to get the better of Alexander Zverev.
I do think the difference in their ability on the return is going to be a key to the match and the head to head reads a comfortable 3-0 in favour of Alexander Zverev. The big German is the more confident player when it comes to getting balls back into play and finding a way to break serve and I do think it is going to be important to the outcome of this Fourth Round match.
Alexander Zverev has won all three previous Tour matches between these players, although they have not met since October 2020 on a hard court. However, it is difficult to ignore the fact that Zverev has held 88% of the service games played against Felix Auger-Aliassime compared with the 46% mark held by the latter in those head to head matches.
All six sets have been won by Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime has not won more than four games in any of those sets completed. While the grass courts should make the Canadian more effective, I still believe Alexander Zverev is playing the better tennis and his return can be a difference maker in this Fourth Round match as he moves through in three or four sets and covers this mark.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Getting through the first week at Wimbledon and then having Middle Sunday to reset has become part of the annual tradition for Roger Federer, although recent years have become more difficult with injury. That meant he headed into the 2021 Wimbledon tournament with a different feeling and a difficult opening match saw Roger Federer barely move through to the Second Round.
He has looked a lot better in the last two Rounds and Roger Federer will have picked up some vital confidence ahead of the second week when the big matches come very quickly. The performances in the last two matches have also been encouraging to see Roger Federer returning to something like his best and he is a deserved favourite to beat Lorenzo Sonego even if the Italian has been on good form on the grass.
Over the last month Lorenzo Sonego has reached the Final at Eastbourne before losing a tight match to Alex De Minaur, while the Italian has dropped a single set in his three matches at Wimbledon. The serve has been a very big weapon for Sonego and it could be a difference maker for him in this Fourth Round match, although the big test for him will be to try and get more out of the serve and especially against a Champion who is very strong on this surface.
The returning numbers have declined in each of the three matches Lorenzo Sonego has played at Wimbledon, and that has been backed up by the fact he has created fewer break points in each of the three matches as he has progressed through the draw.
Now he will have to deal with Roger Federer's serve which has been key in keeping Richard Gasquet and Cameron Norrie at bay in the last two matches. It looks a challenge for Lorenzo Sonego, but he is going up against a Federer who has yet to really get his return game going to the level he will need to win the title here for the ninth time.
Roger Federer has done enough to secure the last two wins while dropping a single set and this is a match in which it feels like Lorenzo Sonego needs to start quickly. Over the years Roger Federer has found a way to blunt the big serve of opponents and then break them down in the rallies and I do think he will make his move in each of the sets played to get past Lorenzo Sonego.
He can build the pressure on Lorenzo Sonego with his own serve and I think Roger Federer will create the majority of the break points in this match. The former Wimbledon Champion will likely be looking to be more efficient with his break opportunities having struggled to finish off Cameron Norrie and being forced into a fourth set, but Roger Federer is improving his form and I think he can cover this number in a victory.
Karolina Pliskova v Liudmila Samsonova: There is a big opportunity in front of both Karolina Pliskova and Luidmila Samsonova when they meet in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and an open tournament could see either player in a position to win a maiden Grand Slam title.
After a difficult year, Karolina Pliskova has built some momentum by winning each match at this tournament in straight sets and she has rarely been pushed in the last two Rounds. This comes after a tough 2021 season and after losing both pre-Wimbledon grass court matches which suggested Karolina Pliskova was going to be entering another Grand Slam during which she would end up coming up short.
The wins earned will have boosted the confidence and Karolina Pliskova has previously shown enough form on the grass courts to suggest she can go very deep into this tournament. New Grand Slam Champions have become the norm in the Women's side of things over the last few years, but Karolina Pliskova will have to deal with the pressure of knowing her own window is closing and there may not be a better opportunity in front of her.
Time is something that Luidmila Samsonova seems to have on her side and the World Number 65 has won three matches here to put her on course to enter a new career best World Ranking at the end of this tournament. The 22 year old came through the Qualifiers to win a grass court tournament in Berlin and she has backed that up to win three matches in the draw at Wimbledon to build the confidence that will make Luidmila Samsonova very dangerous.
Luidmila Samsonova won each of her last two two matches in three sets though and the numbers suggest the matches are getting much more difficult for the Russian youngster. She has been returning very well at Wimbledon, but Samsonova has begun to see her own serve being attacked as the quality of opponent improves and I think that will be the case here.
She may also not have as much success dealing with the Karolina Pliskova serve which has been a potent weapon for the former World Number 1.
My one worry with Karolina Pliskova is that she has routinely failed to really produce her best at Grand Slam level when the pressure intensifies, but she has only dropped serve twice in her first three matches. Add in the strong returning performances produced by the Czech player and I do think her level has been consistently strong at Wimbledon and that should see Karolina Pliskova move into a position to win this match.
I would not be surprised if this one ends in three sets like the last two Luidmila Samsonova matches at SW19, but this time I think Karolina Pliskova will have enough through the serve to earn some cheaper points. That can be key when the pressure is ramped up and I think Karolina Pliskova will move through to the Quarter Final here with a good looking win to keep the momentum behind her.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda Over 39.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Ilya Ivashka Over 33.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev Over 34.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Viktorija Golubic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 49-38, + 12.76 Units (174 Units Staked, + 7.34% Yield)
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