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Showing posts with label July 23rd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label July 23rd. Show all posts

Thursday, 23 July 2026

World Matchplay Darts Day 6 Picks 2026 (Thursday 23rd July)

You can only hope that Cameron Menzies has not suffered a serious illness after he was forced to withdraw from his Second Round match after just three Legs had been completed.

He looked fine after taking the lead with a winning double in the third Leg, but suddenly had a bout of dizziness on the stage and it was soon announced that Menzies was not going to be able to continue.

Ross Smith moves through, but the thoughts of all of the peers would have been with Cameron Menzies who had produced a big win in the First Round and who has been in decent form over the last few weeks as he finally looked to be fulfilling some of the potential.

The show had to go on at the World Matchplay and the Quarter Final line up has been set.

The top half of the draw will be in action on Thursday with the format now expanded to a best of thirty-one contest and that also means a slightly later start to the session. It will then be the turn of the bottom half on Friday before the Semi Final and Final is completed over the course of the weekend.

After this weekend is completed, the PDC Tour moves into a slight hiatus- there are two Players Championship events to be played next week, but then the World Series takes over with back to back Masters events Down Under in Australia and New Zealand in consecutive weeks.

Once again a couple of Players Championship tournaments will be played before the next European Tour event at the Hungarian Darts Trophy at the end of August.

It should mean all eight players left in the World Matchplay can be completely focused on the task in front of them and that is winning one of the big Majors on the Tour and we should have a decent four days of Darts left in Blackpool.


Gary Anderson - 2.5 legs v Dirk van Duijvenbode: All credit has to be given to Dirk van Duijvenbode for the way he handled the pressure as Michael van Gerwen pushed him into extra Legs for a second match in a row.

Once again Dirk van Duijvenbode found a way, much as he did in the First Round against Chris Dobey, and this is a player who has found plenty of heavy scoring.

This makes him dangerous, while van Duijvenbode is also hitting his doubles at a decent rate.

However, Dirk van Duijvenbode will be aware that he may need to be even better if he is going to upset Gary Anderson who has been far too good for Ryan Joyce and Jonny Clayton.

Gary Anderson has not been at his absolute best, but he has been piling up big scores and has looked very comfortable when it comes to finishing off Legs and The Flying Scotsman remains a very strong player. The question is how will his darts hold up the longer he has to stay on the stage and this is a best of thirty-one Quarter Final, but Anderson has not had as many dips as Dirk van Duijvenbode and that can ultimately make the difference in the match.

When they met at the UK Open, Gary Anderson was a little too strong for Dirk van Duijvenbode and that may be the case when they meet in Blackpool in a big Quarter Final.


Luke Littler over 11.5 180s v Josh Rock: The layers are not anticipating a lot of resistance from Josh Rock in this World Matchplay Quarter Final, but that does feel like it is a little harsh on the Northern Irishman.

He has not hit the heights of 2025, but Josh Rock has given Luke Littler something to think about in meetings in 2026 and that has to give him some encouragment.

Of course it should be stated that not many are going to be able to live with the standards Luke Littler has produced in the first two Rounds as he looks to defend the title won last year. Nathan Aspinall averaged over 100 and yet it never felt like he was going to beat Luke Littler, who averaged over 113 to follow up his First Round 109+ average.

The World Number 1 can blitz past any opponent that stands in front of him and there is the feeling that there will be at least one session that ends in a whitewash and Luke Littler should be good enough to move into the Semi Final again.

That means getting to at least sixteen Legs and Luke Littler has been absolutely spot on his rhythm when it comes to attacking the treble 20- backing that up is the fact he hit one nine darter and missed a double for a second in his Second Round win.

Luke Littler has won twenty-one Legs in this tournament and he has thrown twenty-one maximums, while he had nine in twenty Legs when these two met at the UK Open earlier this year.

The top Seed has looked so much more comfortable here though and Littler can produce at least twelve maximums in this Quarter Final contest.

MY PICKS: Gary Anderson - 2.5 Legs @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Luke Littler Over 11.5 180s @ 2.10 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

World Matchplay: 9-12, - 1.90 Units (21 Units Staked, - 9.05% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 23rd July)

Just when it looked like it was going to be the fourth time in a little over seven days when a player has failed to earn one more game than the spread, Alex Molcan did pick up a late break of serve to secure his victory in the Second Round.

That made it a positive start to the week, but a busy Thursday has not offered up many matches that have fallen within the parameters set in the pages that have resulted in a bounce back year.

The focus on the day is on a single selection from the two ATP tournaments being played in Estoril and Kitzbuhel and those can be read below.


Jaime Faria - 4.5 games v Gonzalo Bueno: One of the big home hopes has been eliminated, but Jaime Faria is going to be hitting a new career high World Ranking mark at the end of the tournament.

Another win would see Jaime Faria crack the top 80 for the first time and the Portuguese player will be given plenty of support in Estoril.

He is facing a Qualifier, but Gonzalo Bueno should be given enough respect for having come through a couple of those Rounds and then earning a win in the main draw. That was a win over a Portuguese Wild Card in the main draw and Gonzalo Bueno has to be given a lot of credit for fighting back from losing the second set 6-1 and hold himself together to win a final set tie-breaker.

This is a step up in terms of level of opponent, but a comfortable clay courter can always become a dangerous opponent once momentum is behind them.

Over the course of the season, Gonzalo Bueno has played at a lower level than the main ATP Tour and his numbers on the clay have been pretty average. This should encourage Jaime Faria who had won three Qualifying matches at the French Open and was still able to force his way through to the Third Round at that Grand Slam, and Faria has had a lot more success at this level compared with his opponent.

Before his win in the Second Qualifying Round in Estoril, Gonzalo Bueno had lost all six matches played against higher Ranked opponents on the clay courts in 2026. His serve has been put under pressure consistently in those matches and so Bueno is going to have to really step up to make this a competitive contest.

Jaime Faria has a 19-7 record on the clay when facing opponents that were Ranked lower than himself when they stepped onto the court and the numbers are much more solid than those produced by Gonzalo Bueno.

This is a big spread for any young player to deal with, but Jaime Faria should have the qualities needed on the court to eventually wear down Gonzalo Bueno.


Mariano Navone - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: You cannot take anything away from Quentin Halys and the performances he has put together this week in Kitzbuhel, but he has been struggling for consistency over the last several months.

That has seen the World Ranking drop back outside of the top 80, while the Frenchman has a 10-7 record on the clay courts in 2026.

The serve remains a big weapon for him, even on the red dirt, but Quentin Halys has struggled to have a big impact on the return and that has ultimately proved to be a decisive factor in the results that have been placed on the board.

Next up is this Quarter Final against Mariano Navone who has looked very sharp through the opening couple of Rounds.

The higher Ranked player is the superior returner on the clay courts and that could be the key to this match, while Mariano Navone has beaten Quentin Halys on the clay courts around fifteen months ago.

On that day the World Number 47 was the much superior server and Mariano Navone can find his way through to the Semi Final with another decent win on the board.

MY PICKS: Jaime Faria - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mariano Navone - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 0.71 Units (3 Units Staked, + 23.67% Yield)

Sunday, 23 July 2023

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 23rd)

The poor start to the week was always going to be very difficult to overcome, but it perhaps should have been a stronger end to the latest set of tournaments than we have had.

Some of the losses have been in matches where the selections have dominated the Break Point count, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and those have been the Picks that have made it very tough to get back on track following the poor Tuesday opening to the week.

On Sunday we are going to have the Finals played at the tournaments that have been running this week and there are some decent matches set to take place.

A big clay court event is coming up in Hamburg next week, but there are also stops in Umag and Atlanta to come as the run towards the US Open begins in the United States.

Late finishes in the WTA events in Budapest and Palermo means those markets have not been created at the time of writing and any selections will be added to this thread on Sunday, at least a couple of hours before those Finals are scheduled to be played.


Pedro Cachin - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: All of the veteran players on the Tour that have won titles like Albert Ramos have to be respected and even at this stage of their careers they can put in a surge in one week to take home another trophy.

Albert Ramos has won a title on the clay courts in 2019, 2021 and 2022 and the victory four years ago was right here in Gstaad... That will give him confident at the end of a strong week where Ramos has shown his battling qualities by winning a deciding set three times in four victories.

It does mean he has played a lot of tennis compared with Pedro Cachin who has won all of his matches in straight sets and spent considerably less time on the court compared with the Spaniard.

Add in the fact that Pedro Cachin looks to be an improving player on the Tour who has produced solid, if unspectacular clay court numbers all season. His serve has been an important weapon in the Gstaad conditions, while Albert Ramos has had to return well to make up for the fact that his own serve has been a touch vulnerable.

A first ATP Final is going to mean nerves for Pedro Cachin, but his tennis should be good enough to win this match against Albert Ramos. Outside of the Second Round win over Roberto Bautista Agut, Pedro Cachin has broken at least four times in all three other wins in Gstaad, while Cachin has only dropped serve four times all week.

The expectation is that Albert Ramos will test him with the way he has been returning this week, although the lefty is likely to feel the pressure from the returning that Pedro Cachin has also been able to produce.

Controlling nerves is never easy in a first Final at this level, but Pedro Cachin can earn the majority of the Break Points and that can help him win this and cover this mark.


Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The top two Seeds in Bastad have made it through to the Final on Sunday and this has become familiar for fans of Casper Ruud.

After Wimbledon, Ruud has taken advantage of his clay court quality to win a number of European events on the red dirt in the last couple of years and he is a narrow favourite in the Bastad Final. That may be down to his clay court expertise, but also the fact he had a much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final compared with Andrey Rublev who needed three sets to beat Francisco Cerundolo in a tough encounter.

It took considerably longer than Ruud's Semi Final win, and Andrey Rublev had to win the second Semi Final which means less time to prepare for the Final.

He did win the first four matches against Casper Ruud on the Tour, but three of those were when Andrey Rublev was Ranked considerably higher than the Norwegian. However, all three clay court matches between the pair were won in those four matches and Andrey Rublev will certainly have some confidence behind him knowing that is the case.

On the other hand, Casper Ruud will be feeling pretty good that he has won their last two Tour matches on the hard courts of the Tour Finals. He has also reached the French Open Final twice since losing his last clay court match to Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud has been serving very well in Bastad this week, which could be key to the outcome of this Final.

As well as Rublev has been serving, he has not been as effective on the return in this tournament compared with Casper Ruud and the anticipation is for a competitive Final to have the narrow inches landing in favour of the top Seed.

Casper Ruud has only gone 2-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents this season on the clay courts, while Andrey Rublev has a solid 5-1 record in that same situation.

Three sets in this Final would not be a surprise and the sets should be competitive, but Casper Ruud can find a bit more energy to win the big points at key times to just earn yet another summer title on the red dirt.


Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 games v Maria Timofeeva: Just a few words on the Budapest Final with the markets now completed and a selection made.

It has been a remarkable week for the 19 year old who has entered the draw as the World Number 246 and a Lucky Loser, but Maria Timofeeva has been winning behind tight margins. She spent well over three hours on court in her Semi Final and has played a lot of tennis already this week, while Timofeeva has faced seven more Break Points than she has created in her last two matches.

Playing the big points well is clearly a good sign, but Maria Timofeeva has not shown a strong tendency to do that before Budapest and it feels like an outlier rather than a general rule when it comes to her tennis.

It is expected that the younger player will have chances in this match as Kateryna Baindl hsa not been serving at a really high level in this tournament. The Ukrainian had to win two matches on Saturday after her Quarter Final had been rained out the day before, but Baindl has been returning well this week and that should see her earn the majority of Break Points.

Of course that doesn't mean she will take them, but the play is backing Baindl to come through in three sets and do enough to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-15, - 6.02 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.75% Yield)

Tuesday, 23 July 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 23rd)

It wasn't the best start to the week with the Tennis Picks going 1-2 on Monday.

Tuesday is a much busier day with a lot of First Round matches scheduled to be played across the five tournaments taking place, but only one match has stood out and made it into my selections.

I am sure there will be more options as the tournaments move into the Second Round on Wednesday and Thursday, but hopefully the Pick below can get the season moving back towards a positive number.


Tommy Robredo - 1.5 games v Gian Marco Moroni: One of these players is a veteran who is surprisingly still competing on the Tour having long exited the top 100 of the World Rankings, while the other is finding his way and hoping to use his two Qualifying wins to earn some vital Ranking points in the week ahead.

Tommy Robredo has seen his best days long past by, but he still seems keen to compete on the Tour. These days the majority of the time is spent on the Challenger Tour and Robredo has won a couple of titles on the clay over the last six weeks that will give him plenty of confidence to take into this tournament.

The Spaniard is hoping to get into a position to once again move into the top 100 of the World Rankings and have all the benefits that come with that including direct entry into the Grand Slam events. Over the last eighteen months Robredo has been pretty consistent as far as his return of serve goes and the better performance behind his own serve has helped Robredo put a number of wins together.

He is facing a youngster in Gian Marco Moroni who should be familiar to Robredo as the latter won both matches against him in 2018. Both came on the clay courts and it was Robredo's serve that proved to be a difference maker for him, while Moroni has not been able to have the same consistent success when it comes to his own return of serve.

It has to be said that the Italian doesn't have bad numbers on the clay courts in 2019 and the two wins in Gstaad will certainly help his mindset for this match. However Moroni has not served as effectively as he did in 2018 with a slight drop in percentage of points won leading to a few more dropped games.

This is a part of his game that Robredo should be able to challenge and I do think he has the edge when it comes to the serve. As a veteran it can be difficult to trust him to have the consistency to see off a younger opponent, especially with the issues Robredo has had over the last few years.

However his matches with Moroni will give him confidence and breaking serve in 47% of return games while holding in 78% of his own service games suggests Robredo doesn't mind this match up. I do think there is enough here to want to back Tommy Robredo to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Tommy Robredo - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Monday, 23 July 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 23rd)

The run to the US Open officially begins this week when the ATP Tour moves to Atlanta, but there are some big tournaments in Europe too on the clay courts.

There is one ATP 500 event in Hamburg on the clay courts which is a big chance for players who love that surface to pick up some big Ranking points, while another ATP 250 event is played in Gstaad in another clay court event.

The main WTA tournament is played in Moscow on the clay too.

Once again the main names on the Tour are having another week getting some rest and recuperation from their exploits at Wimbledon but that gives the chance for the likes of Marco Cecchinato, Steve Johnson, Fabio Fognini, Alize Cornet and Anastasija Sevastova to build on title wins last week and earn more Ranking points.

Players of that ilk will be hoping to do that this week and my first couple of Tennis Picks from the week can be found below.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: Two Spanish players meet in the First Round of the ATP Gstaad tournament on the clay courts on Monday. Out of the two players it is Roberto Carballes Baena who is the more comfortable on the surface considering he spends the majority of his time on the clay courts, but Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has been good enough to put together plenty of wins on this surface too.

Both players have actually produced very similar numbers on the clay courts in 2018 with both Garcia-Lopez and Carballes Baena winning around 62% of points behind the serve and around 40% of the returning points. It won't surprise anyone that they have similar hold and break percentages on the clay courts too, although Garcia-Lopez has tended to play at the higher level.

There isn't going to be much between the two players on the day, but Garcia-Lopez could have the edge thanks to the superior level of competition he tends to play against on a more consistent time on the Tour compared with his compatriot.

It feels like a match that is going to see both players have plenty of opportunities to break serve and I am leaning towards Garcia-Lopez to have the edge even though he was beaten by Carballes Baena when they met in a clay court Final on the Challenger Tour in 2017.

On that day Carballes Baena was something of a fortunate winner and I think Garcia-Lopez can earn a measure of revenge with a win in this First Round match. You do have to be a little concerned that this is the first match back on the clay for Garcia-Lopez since the French Open compared with Carballes Baena who was beaten in the First Round in Bastad last week. Carballes Baena also spent a month playing clay court Challenger events rather than any grass tennis so his familiarity with the surface could give him the chance to earn the upset.

However I am not sure Carballes Baena will have the majority of the break points in this one and I like Garcia-Lopez to win and cover if he takes the chances that come his way.


Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: 2018 has been a tremendously poor year for Donald Young and his World Ranking has slipped outside the top 200. It means he will be looking for some Wild Cards to enter events during the North American hard court swing as he may be short of even entering the Qualifying for some of the Masters events coming up and confidence has to be incredibly low.

The overall record over the last twelve months has been very poor, but Young's 2018 record has seen him win just one of the nine matches played on the hard courts. It would be great to say that Young has just had some really difficult draws in those defeats, but that has not always been the case and his numbers have been very poor too.

Those have been particularly poor when it comes to the serve as Young's numbers have slipped from the standards he has set for himself in recent years on the hard courts. He is struggling to hold serve, although facing up against Ivo Karlovic may help with a long known fact the big serving Croatian is a limited returner.

While it has been a tough year for Young, Ivo Karlovic will no doubt feel his own time on the tennis court at the top level is coming to a close. The serve remains a potent weapon for Karlovic, but he is under more pressure to make sure he looks after that side of his game with the return numbers showing even more of a decline.

In each of the last four seasons his percentage of return points won have been in decline and no one should be surprised to see that his break percentage has also declined. Karlovic has broken just under 6% of the time on the hard courts in 2018 which makes it hard to trust him, but he has a strong record against Donald Young and is facing a player who is very short of confidence.

I am anticipating the Karlovic serve putting plenty of mental pressure on Young who has been known for throwing away service games on this surface in 2018. Doing that against Karlovic would be fatal in a set and I think Young will have a hard time getting the better of the Croatian in this one.

Karlovic has not exactly pulled up trees which makes it hard to trust him, but I think he can win this match and cover the small handicap.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.12 Units (1209 Units Staked, + 2.57% Yield)

Saturday, 23 July 2016

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 23rd)

I am not able to access a computer on Friday but I wanted to put up my Saturday picks after another solid day of picks.

I don't have the time for a full write up, but I will put up my picks below and add those from Washington and Stanford later as I have all week.

MY PICKS: Julia Goerges + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 17-12, + 5.42 Units (58 Units Staked, + 9.34% Yield)

Thursday, 23 July 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 23rd)

This has been a really terrible week for the picks as I have mixed the plain bad with the plain bad luck and that has led to a very poor couple of days.

It was more of the same on Wednesday as it seemed all the close games are going against me at the moment- I won't know how Thomaz Bellucci didn't cover against Christian Lindell after winning MORE points on the Swede's serve than Lindell did. Andrey Rublev lost a tight first set which eventually cost him the match in three sets, although the bigger game might have been the 0-40 he had on the Blaz Kavcic serve to get back on serve in that final set as the Russian lost five points in a row.

If I wanted proof that it hasn't been my week, I think it came in the Alexander Zverev match against Juan Monaco. While the final result was a comfortable win for Zverev, I remember looking at the match after nine games and noticing both players had won the exact same number of points.

What proof did I have that I am not getting the breaks? The fact that the player I had backed was still a break down after nine games despite having won the same number of points.


The bad picks are on me, but when you're getting next to no luck at the same time, it is never going to end well. I am not going to go chasing down the rabbit hole though for lost opportunities, but will only make picks that satisfy my criteria and look for the luck to swing back my way. Thursday is another full day of matches as the tournaments set up their Quarter Finals for Friday and I do hope things are going to land my way for the first time this week.


Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 games v Steve Darcis: Both Jerzy Janowicz and Steve Darcis have been in Davis Cup action last weekend and both secured big wins for their nations. Neither player had too much trouble in the First Round in Bastad either and this could be another tight match between the players.

It is the third time that Darcis and Janowicz will meet on the main Tour although both of the previous matches took place in 2012. It is the big Pole who has won both previous matches, but their sole meeting on clay needed three sets to separate them and I think this is going to be a tight match too.

As big as Janowicz can play, he can be a little weak mentally when it comes to picking the right shots at the right time and that will give someone like Darcis a chance in this match. The Belgian player gets a decent pop out of the serve despite not being the biggest player on the Tour and he will be able to frustrate Janowicz by making him play more shots than perhaps he is going to be used to.

I won't lie though, I didn't think Darcis was as high as Number 67 in the World Rankings these days as he is a little inconsistent. Neither player has pulled up any trees on the clay courts can get a few cheaper points off the serve which can help him win this match 63, 36, 64.


Martin Klizan - 3.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: Andreas Haider-Maurer made an effective return to the Tour after pulling out in his First Round match at Wimbledon and being back on the clay courts will suit the Austrian. He has played well on the clay courts this season and his win in the First Round means Haider-Maurer has won more main Tour matches this year than in his last four years combined.

The majority of his success on the surface came earlier in the year and Haider-Maurer is just 3-5 in his last eight matches on the clay. That includes beating Robin Haase in Davis Cup action last weekend and it is the kind of win that will give Haider-Maurer confidence to take into the tournament in Umag.

Martin Klizan won two rubbers last year in Davis Cup action himself as he helped Slovakia beat Romania and this is the surface on which he enjoys the majority of his success. Klizan has won a title on clay and reached the Semi Final of the big event in Barcelona too so returning to the surface off the grass probably suits him down to the ground.

You wouldn't be wrong in saying that both of these players are highly erratic in their play and you're not always sure what you're going to get. However, I think Klizan is the better clay court player and has won their sole previous match also on clay. After some twists and turns, I expect Klizan to come through 76, 63 in this one.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There might be some more well known Croatian players currently on the Tour, but the home fans have to rally around Borna Coric this week as the sole representative in the draw. No one should look down on Coric as the youngster looks like one destined for the top of the men's game once he has finished growing into his body, but the talent is undeniable.

Any young player on the long grind of the Tour are going to have ups and downs, but Coric has shown his potential with big wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray over the last twelve months. Coric has a deep belief in his game, without going over the edge and irritating people, and I think he can get the better of this match up with Aljaz Bedene.

Bedene has been playing very well on the Challenger Tour with titles on the clay including in a Todi Challenger a couple of weeks ago. He should be highly confident he can get the job done on this surface and beat a Croatian in the First Round so Bedene shouldn't be intimidated by the atmosphere on the court.

However, Coric is the superior player and he has a Quarter Final and Semi Final appearance in clay courts at the main level this season. The Croatian also reached the Quarter Final here last year behind two impressive wins and I think Coric works his way through to a 75, 64 win.


Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Kateryna Bondarenko: It has been a long time since Kateryna Bondarenko was a regular name in main Tour draws and it is no surprise that her Ranking has fallen outside of the top 100. For events like the one in Istanbul, Bondarenko has to qualify, but she has had arguably her best win for a long time by beating Venus Williams in the First Round.

Following up that win is going to be very difficult for Bondarenko through the emotions of having such a big win behind her, while she also has to deal with Mona Barthel who has turned a corner in terms of form. Barthel reached the Final in Bastad last week and came through her First Round match very easily this week too.

Barthel had lost 9 matches in a row since retiring half way through a match in Charleston, but the wins in Bastad will have restored some confidence. That has shown up by winning another match this week and the German beat Bondarenko when they last met three years ago.

It had looked like Barthel was going to get nowhere near the 23 wins she had on Tour last year, but turning a corner on form might have come at the right time. I expect Barthel to be a little too solid for Bondarenko who can't surely replicate the form she showed against Venus Williams. This should be a battle that Barthel can come through with a 64, 75 win.


Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There were no slip ups for Alize Cornet and Kirsten Flipkens in the First Round as they both came through in straight sets to meet in the Second Round. Alize Cornet has won four of their previous six matches including a three set win in Dubai earlier this season and I expect the Frenchwoman to be a little too good for Flipkens again.

It has been a couple of years since Flipkens had her career year on the Tour which included a run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but she has fallen down the Rankings since then. In fact you could add the wins from the last eighteen months together and you still wouldn't reach the total she had in 2013 alone and Flipkens has just struggled for consistency through this season.

The serve was always something of a liability, but I am not entirely convinced the movement hasn't deteriorated too, even by a slight amount. That means Flipkens is having a harder time closing the net and I think someone like Cornet can outlast her in the rallies that are likely to develop in this one.

Backing Cornet can be a rollercoaster as she never seems far away from losing focus and having a meltdown on the court. However, she has won four straight matches against Flipkens and the match up looks a good one for her, one I expect Cornet to win 64, 64.


Julia Goerges v Daria Kasatkina: These players met last week and I backed Julia Goerges to beat Daria Kasatkina despite the pedigree the latter has as a former French Open Junior Champion. There are other similarities to what I wrote last week as Kasatkina has once again come through her matches in very impressive fashion this week to build confidence.

Goerges was also a fairly comfortable winner in the First Round and I am still not convinced Kasatkina will be able to deal with the German's power if she is on her game. Perhaps the layers feel the match last week will have given Kasatkina an advantage now she knows what she is dealing with, but the match last week was much more in Goerges' favour than the final scoreline suggested.

It took Goerges some time to work out what she was seeing from Kasatkina, but the power was a clear advantage as her groundstrokes were the more penetrating. Kasatkina struggled to get into the Goerges service games after the early break of serve and I think the latter is going to frank her form from Bucharest.

The wind has been present in Bad Gastein which is going to affect the high risk tennis that Goerges plays, but I think she has to be the play at odds against to win this Second Round match.


Johanna Larsson v Karin Knapp: This is another match that is almost set as a pick 'em in the Second Round in Bad Gastein and I think Johanna Larsson can be backed to continue her hot form. She has lost her two previous matches against Karin Knapp including a heavy defeat on clay, but the Italian had to battle through a very difficult First Round match having just returned from an injury that forced her withdrawal at Wimbledon.

Larsson is the form player having won the title in Bastad last week and following that up with an impressive First Round win for the loss of just four games. Injury meant her European clay court season was restricted to the French Open, but the Swede reached the Semi Final in another clay court event earlier this season and clearly is very confident at the moment.

She isn't the only player in this match that has won a title on clay this season as Knapp did the same in Nuremberg prior to the French Open. However, that is a stand out tournament for the Italian who also reached the Semi Final there last year and Knapp is just 4-8 in clay court matches outside of that tournament over the last two seasons.

The head to head has to be a concern for Larsson who might struggle with the power Knapp can provide from the back of the court. Knapp also has a decent serve, but lack of matches of late might give Larsson the edge on current form and I will back her to move into another Quarter Final on clay this season.

MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges @ 2.05 Betway (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-8, - 14.26 Units (18 Units Staked, - 79.22% Yield)

Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 23rd)

After the positive beginning for the week on Monday, Tuesday proved to be a lot more disappointing with both picks falling.

I didn't make a lot of picks on Tuesday simply because I wasn't that confident of the options that were available, but I expected better from the two picks I did make and will be looking to bounce back on Wednesday.

The Second Round action gets underway through the three men's tournaments on Wednesday and hopefully the following picks have a better time than the two made on Tuesday.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Federico Delbonis won the first three matches these two players have competed against one another, but it was Thomaz Bellucci who won the most recent match in Munich.

On that occasion, the Brazilian took the chances that came his way and won the key points in a three set win, but I expect Delbonis to get the better of him for the fourth time in five matches in this Second Round clash.

Bellucci did well to win his First Round match here in Gstaad, but he hasn't been in the best form in recent weeks and I think that lack of confidence may prove to be the difference. There are times when Delbonis can be a frustrating player to back as he can make a number of mistakes that gift matches to his opponent, but he should be in a better place mentally of the two players.

I can see both players having their chances to break serve, but the confidence of winning more matches this year may help Delbonis find a 76, 64 win.


Pablo Andujar - 3.5 games v Blaz Rola: Another player that isn't the most fun to back, but one that I will be backing on Wednesday, is Pablo Andujar.

There is little doubt that the clay courts remain the Spaniard's favourite surface and he showed that with a decent run in Hamburg last week, although there is little doubt that Andujar isn't the most consistent player.

He is going up against Blaz Rola who has had a lot of success on the Challenger Tour on the surface, but he is yet to carry that form into the main Tour level and that is where I think Andujar's experience can make the difference.

Rola did crush Andujar at Wimbledon, but the grass will never sit well with the latter and I expect Andujar to get his revenge in a 64, 64 win.


Lukas Rosol - 3.5 games v Pere Riba: I was surprised by Pere Riba's win over Jiri Vesely in the First Round, but he is going to have to dig very deep to beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round, even if the latter was pushed harder than he may have thought in the First Round.

It has been a good summer for Rosol so far and the next six weeks gives him a great opportunity to build Ranking points and he has every chance to surpass his career high ranking of 33 with some more wins. Last season saw him lose a lot of First Round matches, but he has had good runs in Stuttgart and Hamburg and would be expected to be too good for the Spaniard in this one.

Riba does love playing on the clay courts, but he could be under immense pressure by the Rosol serve, which may make his own vulnerable serve that much more in danger of being broken. He did give Vesely chances yesterday and I don't think Riba will have it as easy to create break point chances.

In their sole meeting at the French Open last year, Rosol won comfortably in three sets and I expect a 64, 64 win in this one.


Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Marin Cilic has won all three previous matches with Igor Sijsling, but they have all been competitive- however, this is on the clay where Sijsling has struggled for much of the season and I think the Croatian can win this well in front of his own fans.

The one nagging doubt would be the lack of tennis Cilic has played since Wimbledon, but his last appearance at Umag came in 2012 a couple of weeks after coming off the grass and he adjusted very well.

Cilic's aggressive return of serve should put some pressure on Sijsling, particularly if the latter doesn't get at least 65% of first serves in play. That along with Cilic's own more aggressive attitude on serve plus the home support all should help Cilic come through this match.

There are times when Sijsling can throw in the towel and if that happens again, I can only see Cilic winning 75, 62.


Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno-Busta: With the way that Carlos Berlocq plays, there is always every chance that he will drop sets as his serve isn't the weapon that some players have on the Tour.

However, in this match, Berlocq is going against Pable Carreno-Busta whose own serve is also one that can be broken as shown in his First Round win over Paolo Lorenzi.

This is the first time that Carreno-Busta is taking on Berlocq and the veteran can be an awkward player that does get under the skin of his opponent. I can see Berlocq frustrating Carreno-Busta at times and that should give him the edge in the match.

I won't be surprised if it needs three sets though before Berlocq comes through 63, 36, 64.


Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: Yen-Hsun Lu won a Challenger back home last week before travelling to Atlanta and he should have the confidence to beat Alex Kuznetsov.

The latter got into the draw as a Lucky Loser, although he is probably happiest on the hard courts, but that might not be enough against someone like Lu who is a regular at these kinds of events.

Lu also dismissed the Kuznetsov challenge earlier in the season on the indoor hard courts of Memphis and I think he has the serve to do enough damage against Kuznetsov to win this match.

It won't be as easy as Memphis simply because of the travel to Atlanta that Lu had to undertake, but I still believe he wins 76, 63.


Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: Sam Querrey was impressive in his win over Steve Johnson and perhaps should have won with a clearer margin than the 76, 75 suggested as he had the majority of the chances to break serve.

If he continues serving to the same standard he set in that match, he is going to be tough to beat in Atlanta and on the hard courts in general this next six weeks, while confidence looks to be improving after a disappointing first six months.

Like a lot of American players, the clay courts are always going to be a tough time for Querrey, but he had been performing far below the standard he wants before then. Now he is back on familiar terrain, I expect he can be too good for Dudi Sela.

Sela is a player that really plays a lot during this time between Wimbledon and the first of the hard court Masters tournaments and this is his third tournament since the third Grand Slam of the year came to a conclusion. He has surprised Querrey before so can't be under-estimated, but Sela also does give opponents chances to break serve and I can see the big American putting together a string of winners against Sela in each set to bring together a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.40 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24% Yield)

Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 23rd)

It was a slow start to the tournaments on Monday as rain affected the events in Gstaad and Atlanta and the forecast for the rest of the week at most of the events suggest there will be rain delays as a common factor.

The outright picks from Atlanta and Gstaad have been made and can be read here.


The picks went 1-1 yesterday and while the play on Albert Ramos was a terrible call, Mikhail Youzhny should have been a much easier winner in his victory over Paul-Henri Mathieu than it turned out to be. He essentially dominated the match, but didn't take his chances to win the match in straight sets, although he did enough to cover the spread to level the picks up.


Dustin Brown + 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Dustin Brown has qualified for the main draw in Gstaad again after reaching the Second Round here last season and I think he can cause some problems for even a clay court specialist like Victor Hanescu.

The conditions in this part of Switzerland won't be a surprise for Brown after he won two qualifying matches to get through to the main draw and his style of play could be awkward for Hanescu to deal with.

I won't dispute the fact that Brown is not the best returner of serve and will win fewer points against the Hanescu serve than the other way round, but there is a real chance that the German will find a way to steal a set.

Even if he doesn't, Brown can certainly make this a close match with every chance of getting a tie-break on board and the spread could be a touch high if Hanescu is even a little erratic with his play.


Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Joao Souza has performed well in the level below the main ATP tournaments this season, and over the last few seasons, but he will certainly be a little more confident he can go somewhere this week after qualifying for the main draw.

He is facing an opponent that can be erratic at the best of times, but Robin Haase has generally been too good for the players that ply their talent at the Challenger level.

Haase had a couple of tough matches last week in Hamburg after reaching the Final in a Challenger event the week before. Most of the Dutchman's successes on the ATP Tour have come on the clay courts as he has a decent serve and can follow that up with heavy groundstrokes.

As long as he has had enough rest over the last few days, I like Haase to win this one in straight sets, likely 64, 63.


Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Jan Hajek: Tommy Robredo has been in poor form over the last couple of tournaments back on his favoured clay court surface as he has suffered defeat in the first match he has played in Hamburg and Bastad.

That means Robredo has lost three matches in a row, but he has generally had a good season on the clay and has one title to his name from Casablance. I expect a better performance against an opponent like Jan Hajek who will be forced to work hard for all the points he wants to earn.

Hajek is fresh off a decent performance against Roger Federer last week, but he is a player that isn't used to playing at this level like Robredo is. The Czech player has not exactly pulled up trees with his performances on the Challenger level on clay courts and this is a tough match for him if Robredo can recover his form.

I would expect Robredo to come through with a 64, 64 scoreline.


Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: With a serve that can be a little weak at times, Florian Mayer will give his opponents some chances in matches against him. However, the variation of spin and attacking the net can also throw opponents off their game as they are just not sure of what to expect from ball to ball.

That variation has caused problems for better players than Blaz Kavcic, although the latter has won three qualifying rounds to get through to the main draw and has to be confident of his chances.

Kavcic had a decent win over Victor Hanescu last week after qualifying for the tournament in Hamburg and he has put in some solid performances against higher Ranked players. However, he has generally struggled in main Tour events and I think Mayer's different type of game will surprise him here and lead to a 75, 64 win for the German.


Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: Every time I have watched Denis Istomin play, he has either looked like a player that will be able to reach the top 20 in the World Rankings, or he has played like he has barely picked up a racquet in his life.

The North American hard courts should certainly favour his game as he has a decent serve and a heavy forehand and he has a strong record against Lukas Lacko who has had a disappointing year on the Tour so far.

Much like Istomin, Lacko's level of play fluctuates between the sublime and the terrible and it can be hard to predict what you are going to get from him.

Lacko did reach the Final of a Challenger tournament in Canada last week and he also has a Semi Final in another Challenger in South Africa, while he began the year with Quarter Final appearances on the main Tour on the hard courts of Doha and Auckland.

Out of the two players, Istomin has the bigger serve and I think that will lead to the difference in the match. I expect Istomin will be able to win a few more cheaper points and should be able to hold on to serve more effectively than Lacko and it could be tough for the Slovakian to hold off the charge.

As long as Istomin remains focused, he could take advantage of Lacko who has played plenty of tennis last week and I expect the Uzbekistan player to come through 76, 64.


James Blake v Tim Smyczek: Tim Smyczek has won three matches to qualify for the main draw in Atlanta and will certainly feel confident in his chances of beating the veteran James Blake.

However, I don't think Blake is ready to be an underdog against an opponent like Smyczek on the American hard courts and that is why I like the chances of the older man to progress through to the Second Round.

The majority of Blake's successes on the Tour come on the hard courts and he is still capable of beating players like Smyczek that spend most of their time on the Challenger circuit.

Blake beat Ryan Harrison here in Atlanta last year, a big surprise at the time, and I think he still has a big enough game to win matches like this. He can be erratic at times and the consistency in his game is not as it was when he reached the Number 4 position in the World Rankings, but I think he can find a way to get through in three sets.


MY PICKS: Dustin Brown + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.10 Units (4 Units Staked, + 2.5% Yield)

Sunday, 24 July 2011

Boxing Picks Recap (July 23rd)

It was an interesting night of boxing yesterday and a profitable one for followers of the blog as Tyson Fury managed to repel all of Dereck Chisora's attacks to win a unanimous decision on points. I was thinking the scorecards would read 116-112 in favour of the bigger man, but it was actually a couple of points wider on the night and it is Chisora who loses his unbeaten record.

I think a lot of people will have been disappointed with Chisora, especially as he came in at a career high weight, an issue that perhaps affected his stamina during the fight. It just goes to show how far he is from challenging the likes of the Klitschko brothers.

Fury himself should not actively seek a fight with the reigning Champions- I still think he is a little green and needs to keep working on his techniques and move up to European level after a couple more domestic fights.

It would be a mighty setback for his career if he goes in with Wladimir Klitschko next and takes an easy beating- right now I would not see that fight going any other way.


On the other side of the pond, Amir Khan confirmed he is the real deal and the best light-welterweight in the World. Some may still argue for Tim Bradley, but I dont believe the American will fight at 140 pounds again and he also turned down the chance to prove he is the Number 1 fighter in the Division when rejecting a 50-50 split offer of all revenue from Khan's team.

It looks like Khan's path to Floyd Mayweather has been set by his Golden Boy promoters and I will be interested to see who he next goes in with before moving up to 147 next year.

The rumours are that Erik Morales will be tempted into a fight in December, but there is still a chance a rematch with Marcos Maidana could be in the pipeline if the Argentinian fighter can defeat Robert Guerrero in their scheduled fight in August, otherwise it could be Guerrero who is brought in.

If Khan can continue on his winning ways, it is then expected he will come back to Britain for his first fight at 147 pounds in a big domestic showdown with Kell Brook. Now that is a fight I will very much be interested in viewing, and could happen if Brook can get a portion of the World title at that weight. The Sheffield fighter is unbeaten and looks a real prospect, so a fight with Khan would make all the sense in the World, especially considering the fighters seem to genuinely dislike one another if their Twitter war is to be believed.


I will be honest enough to say I wasn't sold on Khan, but his performance last night has got me leaning towards him. I would prefer if he didn't make so many comments in the press and just let his fists do the talking from now on.


BOXING PICKS UPDATE: + 5.8 Units

Saturday, 23 July 2011

Boxing Picks July 23rd- Amir Khan v Zab Judah

I haven't made any boxing picks since the Bernard Hopkins win over Jean Pascal as I haven't really found the value I have been looking for, but I feel tonight there may be a couple of plays to make.

In the UK, we have the big British dust-up between Tyson Fury and Dereck Chisora, with the added incentive that the winner is likely to be propelled into a World Title fight against Wladimir Klitschko.

Later, we have the Light-Welterweight Unification bout between Amir Khan and Zab Judah out in Las Vegas in the early hours of the morning. This fight is being screened on pay-per-view by Primetime, a little known channel in the UK, after Sky showed little interest in the bout. I actually think that is a fallout from the previous Khan fight with Paul McCloskey which failed to sell enough pay-per-view packages on Sky Box Office that the Khan management decided to move to Primetime.

Both fights tonight are significant and I am hopeful both will be ones to rememeber.

Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora
Both fighters have similar records coming- both are 14-0, Fury having 1 more knockout on his resume than Chisora.


Fury has wins over John McDermott (twice) while Chisora effectively ended Danny Williams career and beat Sam Sexton (twice).


Neither has been very active of late- Fury has fought just once in 2011 while Chisora has not fought since September last year as Wladimir Klitschko pulled out of two fights that had been scheduled through injury.


The key to the fight is how well Chisora can defend against the boxing ability of the much taller Fury. For his 6 foot 9 size, Fury is not really a concussive puncher and I actually believe Chisora is the bigger hitter in the contest.


It will also be interesting to note what kind of tactics the teams employ. Chisora has a low centre of gravity and I am sure he will look to get on the inside early and try and get the job done. A big concern must be the fact that Chisora has never gone beyond the 9th Round, and he reached that in his last fight with Sexton.


In saying that, Chisora did look a little knackered in that fight before finding a huge punch that was the beginning of the end for Sexton. It is interesting to note that Sexton's camp believed their man was just about to win if he could have taken it to one more round.


Neither man likes one another but that doesn't always lead to a dust-up and I have a feeling Tyson Fury will look to use his size effectively and keep Chisora off by throwing plenty of jabs and maybe trying to walk the smaller man onto a bigger punch.


I can see the early rounds maybe seeing a bit more action but then stamina issues effecting Chisora as he is dragged into rounds he is not used to competing in. Fury may just end this one late, but I would stick with my original thinking and pick Fury to take the win on points.


I'll look for the scorecards to read 116-112 in favour of the underdog.




Amir Khan v Zab Judah
Reading and listening to the British press and you could be forgiven for thinking this is a gimme fight for Amir Khan as he continues on his collision course with Floyd Mayweather next Summer.


But don't be fooled- Judah is a slick boxer with plenty of power and speed and even at 33 I expect him to cause problems. His southpaw stance only makes it possible for him to throw shots from angles that opponents dont see coming.


He was one of the brightest prospects in boxing in his early days and it looked like Zab Judah was going to follow his idol Mike Tyson by becoming the next truly big thing out of Brooklyn.


In 2001 he suffered a crushing defeat to Kostya Tszyu in the 2nd Round of a unification fight and that remains his sole defeat at Light-Welter.


Judah seems to always come up a little short in his biggest fights as defeats to the likes of Floyd Mayweather, Miguel Cotto and Tszyu showed. However, he did record a huge win over Cory Spinks to become the undisputed Welterweight Champion of the World, albeit in 2005.


He has grown up and matured recently and now knows this is his final shot at the big time. Pernell 'Sweet Pea' Whittaker was brought in as a trainer and Judah has looked decent in his last 2 fights and is definitely a live dog in this one.


Amir Khan reinvented himself after a crushing loss to Breidas Prescott and is now in line for the biggest year in his life if he can overcome Judah. Freddy Roach has worked wonders with Khan but there are still some unresolved issues that could lead to his downfall.


Khan has plenty of speed and power, but his footwork remains poor and his movement seems restricted to straight lines. That is bad news against a fighter that has the speed and power to hit from awkward angles and there is a real chance Khan is caught with a punch he doesnt even see coming.


The British fighter has not fought anyone of the speed and power combined that Judah brings to the ring and his victories since the Prescott defeat have come against fighters that are fairly one-dimensional.


The biggest win was last December when he just about beat Marcos Maidana, but there was a real stage in that fight where it looked like Khan was going to be stopped.


I just cant help thinking the British bookmakers have completely and utterly disregarded Judah at the  prices being offered. It is clear that Judah is not the same name as a Mayweather and Pacquaio in England, but anyone who follows boxing will know how dangerous he is and what he can do.


I may be holding out hope for Judah to land something a little special, but he has the speed to throw a punch from an awkward angle and hurt Khan with 'the one he doesnt see coming', the most dangerous punch in boxing.


I'm going to go for the upset in this one.




MY PICKS: Tyson Fury to win on points @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Zab Judah @ 5.00 BetFred (1 Unit)


BOXING PROFIT/LOSS: + 2.8 Units

Tennis Picks July 23rd Atlanta Semi Finals

I had a strong day in Atlanta yesterday as all 3 picks came in to push the profits up for the week.

Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.

The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.

Now on to the Picks:

John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).

The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.

Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.


Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.

This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.

Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.


MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)

Tennis Picks July 23rd Hamburg Semi Finals

A very good week was close to becoming an excellent week as it looked like my outright pick on Marin Cilic (33-1 before the tournament started) was going to reach the Semi Finals as he had 2 match points in his match with Mikhail Youzhny.

Alas, it was not to be as both were saved and then a very lucky net cord led to Youzhny taking the final set tiebreak 8-6.

I dont think I will be making many more picks from Hamburg this week as the matches are beginning to get very tight to call and I dont think its correct to risk making picks when I am not sure how the matches will develop.

The final pick from this tournament this week is:

Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Simon: Both players can be a little hit and miss and they never make matches easy for themselves, but I think the play has to be the outsider in this one.

Mikhail Youzhny is very much at home on the clay courts and has had a decent week so far with the possibility to reach his first Final this season. He was erratic in his win over Cilic in the last Round but Youzhny has the capability to play with plenty of variation, a key for his success on the clay courts.

Gilles Simon is also a solid clay court player and will look to defend well to keep himself in points and grind down his opponents. He has tried to play with a little more aggression this season and that does leave him prone to making a lot more unforced errors, an area where Youzhny could take advantage.

It is also interesting to note that Youzhny has a 7-1 head to head record against Simon, although the last match was the first time Simon had won a match against the Russian. None of the matches have taken place on clay, but the fact Simon has struggled against him on the other surfaces shows that Youzhny has the consistency to break down the Simon game.

It could be a close one, but I think Youzhny can come out on top and I was surprised to see him as the underdog.


MY PICK: Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.38 Units (All picks completed from July 22nd)