Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (February 18th)

The Australian Open is the only Grand Slam I can think of that plays three Semi Final matches in the Singles tournament on one day and the other one the following day.

It has long felt like it might not be ideal for the Men's tournament with the winner of one half of the draw being given a day less to prepare for the Sunday Final, although at least it is better than what the US Open used to do with the Final played a day after the Semi Finals.

This also means Day 11 is the last really busy one at the Australian Open and for us over in the United Kingdom there will be no more night tennis after this day is completed and placed in the books. The two Women's Semi Finals are played during the day, with the remainder of the Men's tournament now going to be completed in the Night Sessions at Melbourne Park.

And importantly the fans are back!

I can't help but imagine how good the atmosphere would have been during the Day 10 Quarter Finals with Stefanos Tsitsipas fighting back from 0-2 down in sets to beat Rafael Nadal. The Greek youngster gets a huge amount of support in Melbourne and he will be looking forward to playing in front of the fans on Friday and hopefully Sunday too.

Ashleigh Barty could have done with the fans too after blowing a set and a break lead in her Quarter Final defeat, but there are still some big matches to come and there will be a presence in the stands. The atmosphere in Melbourne does tend to be amongst the best you will see on the Tour and I think it will only add to the spectacle of the Semi Finals and Finals to be played over the next four days.

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Serena Williams: The draw has panned out in such a way that many will consider this the de facto Women's Final when Naomi Osaka takes on Serena Williams in the first of the three Semi Finals to be played on Day 11 at the Australian Open. Both are the two remaining Grand Slam Champions in the draw and they are guaranteed to meet a first time Finalist which will only increase the edge in the favour of one of these two players.

Whoever wins will almost certainly be going into the Final as a relatively big favourite, but this is a tough Semi Final for both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams. There is pressure on the shoulders of both players and their previous three matches have tended to have very little rhythm broken up with all of those finishing in straight sets for the winning player.

Those three matches have barely been competitive once the player getting on top has gotten into that position- Naomi Osaka leads the head to head 2-1, including that famous win in the 2018 US Open Final, but their most recent match came the following year in Canada which was won by Serena Williams without facing a single break point on the day.

Serving is going to be absolutely massive in this Semi Final and the player who can get the higher percentage of first serves in play will feel they can control the match. During the tournament it is Serena Williams who has had the edge in first serve percentage made, but it is a narrow edge and Naomi Osaka has been able to protect the second serve more effectively of the two players.

The return edge is with Serena Williams too as she chases down Margaret Court's record for Grand Slam Singles titles won, and that is something that Naomi Osaka will have to be aware of as she looks to play first strike tennis against her idol. The American has won over 50% of points on the return in four of her five matches so far this week, while Naomi Osaka has not managed to do the same since the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

However Naomi Osaka has found the right moments to go on the attack on the return and has actually created more break points than Serena Williams in the last two Rounds combined. That shows her game is more than healthy enough to take on this challenge, while the match is scheduled at a time when the court conditions should be quick to make the serve the key shot for both players.

I have been impressed with the Serena Williams fitness in the tournament so far, but this is not a match that is really going to test that. I expect plenty of short rallies, big hitting and both players hitting through a fast court and much is going to come down to the fine margins.

Overall it does feel like this is going to be competitive, but Naomi Osaka may have the slight edge with the superior second serve, although much of the match is going to be played between the ears. The fans are going to back in attendance as far as the plans have been made, and that should make this a vibrant atmosphere for the players to perform in and it is very hard to oppose Serena Williams with the kind of form she has displayed.

However she was a touch fortunate to get past Aryna Sabalenk and I think Naomi Osaka is a better version of the Belarusian at this stage of their careers. The Japanese superstar has won three Grand Slam titles so I would be disappointed if nerves were to get the better of her and with the slightly superior serving numbers I think it will be Osaka who takes her place in the Final on Saturday and keep Serena waiting a little longer for her 24th Grand Slam Singles title.

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady over 21.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the US Open back in September, the Jennifer Brady run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open is perhaps a less surprising one than the run Karolina Muchova has had in the tournament. Both players are looking to reach a Grand Slam Final for the first time and both came through difficult Quarter Final matches when they trailed by a set before tuning the match around in their own favour.

The Brady run has been much more impressive in terms of her performances, but Karolina Muchova has had three upset wins in a row when she has had to fight back from tough spots within those matches. Those wins can only build confidence, although not everyone was happy with the Medical TimeOut in her win over Ashleigh Barty on Wednesday even if it is something that is within the rules of the sport.

Without a doubt it changed the momentum of the match irreversibly having trailed by a set and a break at the time before Karolina Muchova was able to run through the next two sets with eleven games won out of fourteen played. Her opponent didn't complain, but it is clear that most feel it was a tactical decision rather than an actual medical issue and Muchova was able to use the time to clear her head.

She will feel she has the momentum with wins over Karolina Pliskova, Elise Mertens and Barty behind her, but this is not going to be an easier match. Nerves will be a factor in a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final, but Jennifer Brady experienced the spot just a few months ago and was able to push Naomi Osaka the distance before losing to the eventual Champion.

Her serve is a powerful weapon and Jennifer Brady has to believe it gives her a chance to win this match- in the last Round she did have some struggles on the serve, but the American still won over 80% of the first serve points played and that kind of number is one that will always give her a chance to win matches having started 2021 in strong form.

However it should be noted that Jennifer Brady has not had to beat a single opponent Ranked higher than World Number 33 in the tournament so far. At this stage Karolina Muchova has beaten three top 16 Ranked players and that difference is one that will give Muchova confidence that she is not such an underdog in the match.

There is no doubting that Karolina Muchova has not served as well as Jennifer Brady, but the fight and belief she has shown makes her dangerous. In their sole previous match on the Tour, Karolina Muchova deservedly beat Jennifer Brady, but it took three sets and was played on the clay and the latter is much improved from that meeting in April 2019.

This does feel like it is going to be a close match and one that could potentially go the distance- the conditions should favour Jennifer Brady, but it is hard to ignore the belief Karolina Muchova has had to turn matches back around in her favour. Players have had more success going after the Jennifer Brady second serve and that could be a good avenue for Muchova to have her own chances to win this match, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if this match goes the distance.

Even two tight, competitive sets could be enough to cover this total games line and I think both Jennifer Brady and Karolina Muchova are playing with enough confidence to not lose belief in their own game. My lean goes towards Brady, but Karolina Muchova has made it a habit to fight back from what looks like inevitable losing positions and this could be another close match.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: I have little doubt that Novak Djokovic was shocked by whatever he pulled in his eventual Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, but his performances in the last two Rounds suggests he is more than coping with the situation. The eight time Australian Open is favourite to win another title in Melbourne and I think the fact that his remaining two matches will be played under the lights will only aid him.

Novak Djokovic would have been the favourite to beat most players on the Melbourne Park courts once he got to this stage of the tournament, but that position has been strengthened by the fact he is playing an unheralded opponent. No one could have really predicted the kind of run Aslan Karatsev has had at the Australian Open and he will be looking to match the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga who have made the Men's Final out of left field in recent times.

Make no mistake, an Aslan Karatsev appearance in the Final would be a much bigger surprise than either of those two players. The Qualifier has become only the second since 1977 to reach the Australian Open Semi Final after overcoming a clearly hobbled Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final, while he is also the lowest Ranked player to reach the last four of a Major in thirty years too.

He has nothing to lose and Aslan Karatsev has shown remarkable poise even when he has been put under pressure, a real surprise considering he he has never played in the main draw of a Grand Slam before. No other debutant has managed to enjoy the kind of run the Russian has so far in Melbourne, and he has recovered from slow starts to win his last two matches.

So many records have tumbled, but Karatsev was fortunate to be playing an injured Dimitrov in the Quarter Final who couldn't serve or more as he would have hoped. Barring something similar happening to Novak Djokovic, it is hard to make a serious case for the underdog to upset the odds. He was two sets down against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and was being dominated in the match before turning things around, but again it is very hard to believe he can do that against the World Number 1 who has dominated the Australian Open over the years.

There has to be a little concern in the Russian's camp that the three sets he has lost in the tournament have come by 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3 scores and now he is going up a considerable level. Beating Felix Auger-Aliassime is a solid result, but it was a match that could have easily gone the other way, while a match against an injured Grigor Dimitrov is not the same as facing what has looked a relatively healthy Novak Djokovic.

The latter was fortunate to beat Alexander Zverev who had chances in three of the four sets played, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court. It is a surprise that two of the last three Djokovic opponents have earned more break points in the match than the World Number 1, but the same has happened to Aslan Karatsev and Novak Djokovic has had the superior serving numbers in the tournament.

Aslan Karatsev's run in the Australian Open has been a real Cinderella story, but the feeling is that the clock is going to strike midnight in this Semi Final. While I can see a couple of sets being competitive, I think Novak Djokovic is going to be a little more comfortable with more time to recover since the Third Round win last week and I believe his returning will eventually crack his opponent.

This is a big number for a Semi Final and Novak Djokovic has had one of his more difficult Australian Opens to this point, but he should have the returning skills to fashion the break points that an injured Dimitrov and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman managed against Aslan Karatsev. The evening conditions may also have an affect with this being the first time the underdog will have played in them in the tournament and I think Novak Djokovic earns his spot in Sunday's Final with a strong win when all is said and done.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 43-42, - 8.36 Units (170 Units Staked, - 4.92% Yield)

US Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals 2013 (September 7th)

The US Open has reached the business end of the final Grand Slam tournament of the season and we still look on course to see the Final that everyone would have wanted at the start of the event as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal need to win one more match to set that Final.

I was expecting Djokovic to have the more difficult Semi Final today and, while that is still the case in my opinion, I don't think many people would have predicted Stanislas Wawrinka to be the last man standing in the Serb's way for that place in the Final.

This is a big tournament for Djokovic to underline the fact that he is still the World Number 1- even though he won't lose that position as long as he reaches the Final, even a defeat in that match to Rafael Nadal will change the perception of most people as to who the real World Number 1 is.

Nadal is likely to finish the season in the top spot in the Rankings no matter how this tournament ends now as he has no points to defend in the final two months of the season and will be adding points from the World Tour Championships as well as two Masters events in Shanghai and Paris. It has been a fantastic season for the Spaniard since returning to the Tour last February, but both he and Djokovic will be looking for their second Grand Slam title of the season and that will be the most important statistic that either player would like to look back on in 2013.

Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: The first Semi Final should be a fascinating one to watch as long as Stanislas Wawrinka can bring in the form that saw him push Novak Djokovic all the way at the Australian Open back in January and the form that saw him blitz Andy Murray in the Quarter Final a couple of days ago.

Of course there will be some nerves for the Swiss man as he has never reached this stage of a Grand Slam before and he may also feel there won't be too many more chances for him to reach the Final of a major. Those factors can make a player tight and struggle to find their form, but Wawrinka does have a lot of tools in his game that can cause problems for Djokovic in this one.

Wawrinka has a big serve that can set up points and he is capable of ripping the ball off both wings on the ground, while Djokovic doesn't have a dominating serve himself which should give the Swiss player chances to break. With Djokovic's return game, there are bound to be plenty of breaks of serve in this one, after they combined for 14 breaks of serve in five sets back at the Australian Open.

You have to believe the experience of Djokovic of winning majors will give him the edge in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he drops his second set of the tournament on his way through to the Final.

Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Richard Gasquet: There is a video on YouTube where you can see Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet taking on one another in an under-14 tournament that Gasquet wins in three sets.

That is about as much success as the Frenchman has had against Nadal with his sole win on the professional circuit coming in their first meeting back in 2003 after Nadal was forced to pull out of the match after the first set.

Rafael Nadal has won 10 straight matches since that match on the Challenger circuit and he has only lost 4 sets in that time and his form during this tournament suggests this will likely end in another straight sets win for the Spaniard.

He has yet to be broken in the tournament and Richard Gasquet has come through two tough five set matches in a row and I can see him losing heart if he doesn't win the first set. If Nadal can take that one, I believe he will be able to move away from Gasquet as the match develops and I expect Nadal to come through with a 64, 62, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-36, - 6.22 Units (109 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 4th)

It was another decent day for the tennis picks yesterday, but I'll be the first to admit that I didn't see Gael Monfils' performance coming in his defeat against Daniel Brands. I've only seen highlights of that match and it has seemed that Brands has played better than I thought he would, while Monfils was a little too passive against a player he should be dominating.

Overall, it hasn't been a bad week for Monfils and I think he will take the positives ahead of the first Grand Slam of the season.

On another note, Andy Murray made hard work of his first match of the 2013 season, but was eventually too strong for John Millman. Murray admitted that Ivan Lendl would have been a little annoyed if he had lost that match and I think it is clear that he has been sent to Brisbane in a bid to retain his title from a season ago.

There aren't too many obstacles here that should worry the World Number 3, and the same could be said of David Ferrer in Doha where he does look head and shoulders the best player in the tournament.

Today, we will also see the first real marquee match of the new season as Serena Williams takes on Victoria Azarenka in the Semi Final at Brisbane and the winner will be the big favourite to lift their first title of 2013.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Yesterday I said that I do believe Jurgen Melzer will be going down the Rankings this season, but that I still favoured to beat his young opponent David Goffin... This time I think he is playing someone who should make a significant move up the Rankings this season and a player that is ready to beat him.

Grigor Dimitrov has had a lot of hype surrounding him for a few seasons, especially so since he won the Junior Wimbledon title in 2008 and comparisons to Roger Federer have been rife in the media.

I'm not sure he will ever reach those very high heights that Federer has in his career, but I think he has the nous in this one to make life difficult for Melzer and follow up his win over the Austrian that he achieved on an indoor hard court at the back end of last season.

Melzer is not as effective on an outdoor hard court and I'll look for Dimitrov to record a 6-3, 7-6 win.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Denis Istomin: Andy Murray had a scare in his first official match of the new season and I expect him to be much more focused on this one and he should be able to give Denis Istomin plenty of problems.

I don't want people to under-estimate Istomin as he does have a decent game, one that he can sometimes exploit to a higher level where he hits winner after winner. My issue for the Uzbek is that he should find himself under pressure on his own serve against one of the best returners in the game and that should lead to a fairly routine win for Murray.

Istomin has certainly pushed some of the better opponents he faced in 2012, but he didn't play too many players like Murray who are capable of making players play an extra ball in rallies and the one time he did face someone like that was Rafael Nadal in a match where he won 4 games in 3 sets, albeit on Nadal's favourite clay surface.

Murray should be too strong and win fairly routinely, 6-3, 6-4.


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: The US Open was as close as Victoria Azarenka has got over the last 18 months to knocking off Serena Williams, but she fell a little short and has now lost 9 times in a row to the American.

Azarenka has been playing the more solid tennis of the two this week, but Serena raises her game for the competition she faces and has hardly been troubled herself. When the serve is working, Serena can put a lot of pressure on opponents and I think she will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for the 2013 season, in particular for the Australian Open.

I love Azarenka's passion, but opposing her against Williams has been the call and most of the times she has been beaten fairly comfortably. The spread needs Williams to win a much tighter one this time and I have to back it until Victoria Azarenka proves she is over the mental hurdle of playing the 'real' World Number 1.

A 6-4, 6-4 win, the same at the End of Year Championships in Istanbul, shouldn't be far off the mark.


Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Go Soeda: This is a rematch from a year ago and I believe we are going to see a similar scoreline to the 6-1, 6-4 win recorded by Janko Tipsarevic in the Semi Final of this tournament against Go Soeda.

This time they meet in the Quarter Final and I just think Tipsarevic is too consistent in almost all facets of the game and should be able to take care of this opponent.

Soeda has not played anyone close to the level Tipsarevic is at in the first two rounds here and he just doesn't trouble the best players on the ATP Tour. Tipsarevic should be too good for him from the start and while Soeda may get an extra game on the board, I think the Serb will be able to cover this spread at very reasonable odds.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Daniel Brands: I am hoping that I haven't begun laying a player that is going to have a break out tournament, but I do like Richard Gasquet to perform stronger than Gael Monfils and win this match.

It has already been a long week for Daniel Brands who had to come through three qualifying rounds to get through to this Semi Final and I think that is going to catch up on him at some point. Richard Gasquet will also know Brands' game having played him three seasons ago and I think he can up the ante on the German in a way that Monfils was unable to do yesterday.

Hopefully Gasquet doesn't make the slow start that affected his compatriot yesterday and I think he can win with a break in each set, or at least a break more in each set that Brands can manage.


David Ferrer - 4 games v Nikolay Davydenko: A couple of seasons ago, this would have been a really tough match to predict as Nikolay Davydenko had the shot making and consistency to trouble even a player like David Ferrer that loves making opponents play one more shot.

However, I think at this stage of their careers, Ferrer is far too consistent for Davydenko and will exert enough pressure to win this Semi Final with a little room to spare.

Ferrer beat Davydenko 6-3, 6-4 when they last met around 14 months ago and I can see a similar scoreline in this one.


MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 7-3, + 7.17 Units (17 Units Staked, + 42.2% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final Picks (November 11th)

Remembering all those who gave their lives for the benefit of freedom (11/11 11am)


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This should be a fascinating first Semi Final, but I think Novak Djokovic is playing a little too solid at the moment to be beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro, especially considering the Serb has won the last 5 sets they have competed since the Olympic Games.

The courts here are playing just slow enough to think Djokovic will get enough returns in play and I think he is a little more solid on both wings than the big man and I expect him to win more of the extended rallies.

Del Potro certainly has the ability to take a racquet out of an opponents hands, but the lack of rest since beating Roger Federer in 3 sets means there is more in favour of Djokovic in this one.

The Serb would have covered this spread in the last 2 matches between the players and I'll look for him to make Monday's Final in impressive style, possibly coming through 6-2, 6-4.


Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Roger Federer: Anyone who followed the outright selection earlier in the week may want to hold off on this one as they already have Andy Murray to win the tournament, but I think the layers are over-estimating Roger Federer in the match.

Murray has won the last 5 sets they have competed including that absolute hammering at the Olympic Games and he is playing much better tennis at the moment in my opinion.

To be perfectly honest, Federer has looked a little flat this week and very ratty- he destroyed Janko Tipsarevic who was playing far below his best, but struggled against David Ferrer and was beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and I have an inkling that the last 12 months of full tennis has caught up with him and he could do with a break.

Federer has put a lot in to the game in that time to make sure he recovered the Number 1 Ranking in the World and the amount of tennis he has played is tough for a 31 year old, especially with the level of competition and the fact he has reached the latter stages in most events in that time.

I just feel he is ready to recharge the batteries and Murray will be able to put enough pressure on his serve to get through to the Final and possibly a repeat of his second match at this tournament against Novak Djokovic.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-4, + 8.40 Units (21 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks August 18th (Cincinnati)

It is Semi Final day in Cincinnati as both the Men's and Women's events begin to wind down.

With a little over a week to go until the US Open begins, I was more than a little surprised that there are so many big names in action next week in the final preparation events.

The likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, Andy Roddick, Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber are all expected to be in action, and that is not really something we are used to in the week before a Grand Slam event.

I think it says a lot about the players and their belief that they can go deep at Flushing Meadows- don't get me wrong, I am 100% sure some of these will pull out, in particular Kvitova and Kerber, but it is surprising that they had these events on their schedule knowing the US Open was immediately following the tournaments.


Juan Martin Del Potro + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: It's a little risky to go against Novak Djokovic considering the form he has displayed over the last two weeks in Toronto and here in Cincinnati, but Juan Martin Del Potro should be able to keep the match relatively close considering how quick the courts have been playing.

Del Potro will also have the additional belief that comes from winning the last two matches against Djokovic, including for the Bronze Medal at the Olympic Games, and I am satisfied that the wrist injury he suffered in the Third Round wasn't as serious as first feared.

You have to believe that Del Potro can hold on to serve a little easier than Marin Cilic did yesterday against Djokovic as the second serve is a lot more effective. His groundstrokes will also feel heavier to the Serb as they seem to quicken through the courts this week.

I'm not sure Del Potro will do enough to get through Djokovic, but he has a chance of stealing a set, and you have to think a tie-break will be in play at some point and so I will take what looks like a lot of games.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: Roger Federer just missed the cover for me yesterday, but that was much more down to an inspired second set from Mardy Fish and the World Number 1 continues to play at an extremely high level.

Federer will be plenty motivated knowing that a win here will guarantee he goes into Flushing Meadows as the Number 1 seed and he has dominated the head to head against his compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka, winning 12 of the 13 previous matches between the friends.

He has won the last four matches comfortably between the pair and Federer has been in absolute fine form this week.

That isn't to say Wawrinka hasn't as he has beaten the likes of David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic for the loss of just the one set. However, Federer will provide a different kind of pressure and will look to attack any second serves that he sees and that can be a problem for Wawrinka who can struggle to get a high percentage of first serves in play.

While it may not have worked yesterday, I still want to stick with Federer in this one and I think he can take this match 6-3, 6-4 this time.


Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Angelique Kerber: These two should provide an entertaining Semi Final tonight, but I am sticking with the form displayed by Petra Kvitova in the last two weeks when she has won in Montreal and continued that run here in Cincinnati.

Angelique Kerber had a big win over Serena Williams yesterday and there is the fear that that match could have taken more out of her, especially mentally, than Kvitova who was a straight sets winner.

They have already played two close matches this season, both winning one apiece, but I just feel Kvitova is the stronger player on this surface as her groundies will be able to fly through the court and her form has been brilliant of late and I'll look for her to come through, even if it may take three sets.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro + 4.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-7, - 4.46 Units (21 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks August 11th (Toronto and Montreal)

It has been an awful week for my picks to be honest and I can only apologise for that as they have been bad picks more often than not.

Hopefully the last couple of days of these two events in Canada can at least reduce the loss on what has been a bad week so far.


John Isner v Richard Gasquet: I have to begin by saying that Richard Gasquet has really been playing some good tennis this week and he seems to have been inspired by winning the Bronze Medal in the Men's Doubles in London last week.

He has been more offensive in his play and has looked to take the ball on and I have been very impressed with the way he has gone about his business.

However, John Isner has also been playing some really good tennis and he has to be respected for his wins over Philip Kohlschreiber and Milos Raonic yesterday.

Isner can be very impressive on serve and that might prove to be the difference in this match, although it could take a couple of tie-breaks to settle things.


Janko Tipsarevic to win a set v Novak Djokovic: These two are close friends and are also well aware of the what the other is able to do, but I think Janko Tipsarevic is capable of winning a set especially judging on how close most of their previous matches have been.

Novak Djokovic has the 4-2 lead in the head to head so I am not sure Tipsarevic will have enough to win the match outright, but it is telling that he has won at least one set in 5 of those 6 previous matches.

The lower ranked Serb is also playing some very solid stuff this week in Toronto and he has been in good form in the whole of 2012 as he has the belief that he should be playing in the back end of tournaments. He has spent less time on the court this week too and that may also make the difference as both players were doing double-duty last night and it is Tipsarevic who has had a little more rest and time to recover his fitness of the two.

I did consider backing Novak Djokovic to win this 2-1 in sets, but there is a tiredness factor to consider and I am not sure how much he would have left if Tipsarevic wins the first set- on the other hand, I don't have full faith that Tipsy can take the match so I'll stick with this pick at odds against.


MY PICKS: Na Li - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units) Already advised and rain delayed
John Isner @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic to win a set @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-8, - 10.64 Units (20 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks July 14th

It has not been a good week so far for the picks made as I dropped to 1-6, but with two players still involved from the outright picks, there is still plenty of potential for the week to end on a high.

The biggest story, as far as I am concerned, from the play so far this week is the semi-breakthrough Laura Robson is having in Palermo where she has reached the Semi Final of a Main Tour tournament for the first time in her young career.

I have said many times that I believe Robson has all the tools to become a good player, but she needs the tactical advice to put her game together. I haven't seen much of her matches at all this week, but the clay courts are unforgiving to those that want to 'ball bash' as much as possible without the patience to construct points so that is a real positive sign that Robson has done so well on the clay so far.

She hasn't had an easy path either as you can get those during the week following a Grand Slam event. Robson has beaten Roberta Vinci and Carla Suarez Navarro and both of those are more than just solid clay court players so real credit has to be given to the teenager for the week so far.

I actually think Robson has a winnable Semi Final too and I expect a leap back into the top 100 next week after this run and hopefully it will be the start of many things to come.

Before anyone asks, I am not one of these people that solely look at the success of their own nation's players- personally I think tennis is a sport where you can appreciate someone's talents regardless of where they are born as shown by the fact that David Nalbandian, Juan Martin Del Potro, Janko Tipsarevic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are some of my favourite players on the Tour.

However, I have stated my admiration for the way Laura Robson plays and I do think she is capable of reaching the top 20 and possibly higher if she can learn the best way to use all the tools she has at her disposal.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Jan Hajek: This is slightly a risky choice considering the poor performances Nicolas Almagro has put in during his first two matches here, but the fact the Spaniard is still standing means I have to back him against what looks an overmatched Jan Hajek.

Hajek has done very well to reach this Semi Final stage considering he had not played one match on the Main Tour this season after ending last season with a 1-10 record. He has been playing well on the Challenger Tour which would have built up confidence, but Hajek just doesn't come across players of the quality of Almagro on any kind of regular basis.

Almagro is a top 10 player and is set to surpass the successes of last season and must feel he has a real chance of finishing in a position to get to the End of Year Championships for the first time in his career. He has been putting together much more consistent performances and he has two titles on the clay courts from earlier this season.

If he can put in a more solid performance than he has in the first two matches he has played here, I do like Almagro to be a little too strong for Hajek.


Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I have already picked Juan Monaco to win the tournament in Stuttgart this week, but I also think he is worth chancing to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez with a little gap in the game handicap in this Semi Final.

Monaco has played pretty well this week and the same has to be said of Garcia-Lopez, but it is the Argentine that has showed more consistency over the course of the season and I expect he will be able to control the match which will be played in long rallies.

This is the toughest opponent Garcia-Lopez would have faced this week and I think Monaco has shown enough that he is likely to win most of the extended rallies. The problem for Garcia-Lopez is that he doesn't really have the big serve to rely on and that means he is going to have to gut out every point, something that can take a toll when Monaco is as consistent as he can be.

Monaco also holds a comfortable 3-1 head to head record against the Spaniard, winning on each of the last three occasions they have faced one another. I expect he will get his fourth straight win in this Semi Final.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Ryan Harrison: I thought John Isner looked a vulnerable top seed at the start of the week, but he has played himself into some kind of form and I believe that his serve will put enough pressure on Ryan Harrison that he will find a way to get the win in straight sets.

Harrison is an improving player all the time and he is a real hope for the American public that will be looking for the next generation of stars now that Andy Roddick is almost at the end of his own career. There are genuine concerns in the United States that they are not producing the calibre of players like the John McEnroe's, Andre Agassi's, Pete Sampras' and Andy Roddick's of the past, but Harrison is their one hope coming through in the immediate future.

The problem can be Harrison's temper which can get the better of him and puts him in awkward positions in matches. He can be guilty of 'losing his head' at times and that is not something he can afford to do against someone who is capable of serving as John Isner is.

The spread looks tempting enough as it needs just one break of serve from Isner to actually put him in a good position to cover as long as he wins in straight sets. I expect he will and a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline would not surprise me.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 1-6, - 6.08 Units (10 Units Staked)

Wimbledon Day 11 Picks (July 6th 2012)

It is time for the Men's Semi Finals and I think we are going to have two top quality matches to look forward to. The Women's matches were a little anti-climatic in all honesty so I will be hoping that these two Semi Finals are a little more intriguing.

Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.

Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.

In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.

The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.

It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.

There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.

I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.

I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.

Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.

The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.

Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.

However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).


MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)

Euro 2012 Semi Final Picks (June 27-28)

We have reached the business end of the European Championships and I have to say I have been a little disappointed with the tournament as a whole- I might be the only one who feels this way, but I think there has been a lack of real stars at the event and the overall quality of football has really gone down in my opinion.

I might just be feeling nostalgic, but I was looking back at some of the names that were involved in the World Cup of 1998 or the European Championships of the early part of the 21st Century and I just think there are a number of players that would walk into the sides on show at this tournament.

It's the forward players that have disappointed me the most- you have people in the media speaking about how well teams are defending, but the number of absolute clear-cut chances that have been missed have been disgusting to be perfectly frank.

Mario Gomez is a prime example of someone who would not, in my opinion, have been near the starter of a national team going back ten years- I was looking at Davor Suker of Croatia and I honestly think he would pretty much walk into any national side that was involved in this tournament.

Like I say, maybe I am being a little nostalgic, but I do think there is a lack of quality in World Football at the moment as teams rely on athletes and hard-working players rather than those with skills in their boots (couple of exceptions being Ronaldo and Lionel Messi).


I actually think the best four teams in the competition have made it through to the Semi Final, but I am not entirely convinced we are going to see two great matches. The Spain-Portugal affair could be tight and tense, while Italy may be a little tired after their exploits in the Quarter Final against England.

It looks like we are going to see another Spain-Germany match at a major international event, the third time in a row that will occur, but the tournament has been devoid of any real surprises so far and maybe we are going to get our first with one of those nations failing to make it through!


June 27th
Portugal v Spain Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14535-Portugal-v-Spain.htm)

June 28th
Germany v Italy Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14536-Germany-v-Italy.htm)


MY PICKS:Spain to win 1-0 @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Germany to win and at least three goals scored @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


Euro 2012 Update: 7-17, - 2.11 Units (36 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks June 22nd

It wasn't a good day for the picks yesterday, but I still have two matches running that were called off because of all the rain at Eastbourne- now we will really see the motivation of the players left on the Men's draw as they have to play two matches in the same day if they are to reach the Final and all just days before the tournament begins at Wimbledon.

Talking about Wimbledon, the draw for the Men's and Women's event will be released on Friday morning so I will look to get my into that tomorrow evening while watching the Germany-Greece Euro 2012 Quarter Final and I would look to have it completed, with full outright picks, by Saturday afternoon.

Monday's order of play is likely to be released on Sunday, by which time the layers should have all their markets available, and I will start making picks from the tournament then.

Picks:

Xavier Malisse - 2 games v Philipp Petzschner: I really like how Xavier Malisse has been playing during the grass court season so far, although this is not an easy test against Philipp Petzschner who has come through qualifying here to take his place in this Semi Final.

Malisse reached the Quarter Final at Queens last week before running into David Nalbandian and he has to be taken seriously on the grass courts as a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and a player that has compiled a 21-7 record on the surface over the last three seasons.

Petzschner did reach the Final at Halle last season, although beaten early there this season, and he has the tools to cause plenty of problems for Malisse- however, I think the Belgian veteran has enough talent to get a few more returns into play and that could be the difference in seeing him through, even if the match goes the distance.


Kim Clijsters - 4.5 games v Urszula Radwanska: Kim Clijsters has been back in action in her final season on the Tour as she looks to get some sort of match fitness ahead of Wimbledon and the Olympics and it says a lot about her quality that she has breezed into the Semi Final here.

I expect she will be too strong for the younger Radwanska sister, although Urszula is not to be under-estimated considering she has won a lower-level tournament on the grass at Nottingham and has come through qualifying to earn her place at this stage. However, this is going to be the toughest challenge she has faced on the grass so far this season and it is tough to see her come through it.

Clijsters was an early loser at this tournament last season, although that was down to an injury she was playing with and the one that kept her out of Wimbledon. The year before, Clijsters reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and I think she will still want to get a little more match sharpness here in Holland so will look for her to win this game with room to spare.


MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised June 21st
Denis Istomin - 1.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Advised June 21st
Xavier Malisse - 2 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kim Clijsters - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 2-5, - 6 Units (14 Units Staked)

English and European Midweek Picks (April 24-26)

The second legs from the two European competitions will be played this week and they have the centre stage all to themselves when it comes to media coverage.

I will post my picks from the games on this thread and will update during the week whenever new picks are made.


Barcelona v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13951-Barcelona-v-Chelsea.htm)

Aston Villa v Bolton Wanderers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13953-Aston-Villa-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13958-Real-Madrid-v-Bayern-Munich.htm)


MY PICKS: Barcelona - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Bolton Wanderers @ 4.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid to win and 3 or more goals scored @ 2.40 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (April 14-19)

This weeks post is a little later than normal as I figured it would make more sense to cover the first legs of the European Semi Finals as well as the second Championship round of the week.


Grant Holt for the England Euro 2012 squad: I am sure I am not the only person that has heard more and more people suggesting Grant Holt will be perfect not just for the Euro 2012 squad, but as a STARTER for England.


Now don't get me wrong- I have a lot of respect for someone who has done their time at the lower levels in English football and has proven to be a handful in some games for Norwich City in the Premier League, but has he really done enough to be in the England team?


I watched him closely against Manchester City last Saturday lunchtime and I thought he was solid, but no more than that. He isn't a great finisher and while I think he does provide a different sort of threat up front, I don't think he is a better option than Danny Welbeck in any which way.


I don't have great expectations of an England international so don't think it is down to that that I wouldn't pick Holt as my next statement will prove: I don't think Holt is a better option than Peter Crouch and I have seen him the big man barely affect some games which makes me believe he is not ready for this kind of step up.




What would the League have looked like if Carlos Tevez had stayed at City?: Carlos Tevez is a twat...


Right, now that is out of the way, I think City would not have relinquished their lead in the Premier League table if they had brought back Carlos Tevez say around the same time that Manchester United brought back Paul Scholes.


Tevez proved what City had been missing in their away games with a sublime performance at Carrow Road last week, combining work ethic with real quality, attributes which would certainly have turned draws into wins and losses into draws, with these points adding up to keep City top as far as I am concerned.


Everything Tevez gives a team in a hostile away environment is everything Mario Balotelli does not- I think Balotelli has the potential to be a top class player, but there is no doubting he can disappear in games, particularly those tough ones away from home, and he doesn't have the same urge to win the ball back as Tevez does.


I think there will be a lot of City fans wondering how different the season would have been if they could have paired Tevez with Sergio Aguero for the last three months and, while you can never be 100% when it comes to football, I do truly believe it would be City, and not United, leading the way in the table going into the Derby next Monday.




That diving issue again: So Ashley Young was once again caught going down too easily to win a penalty for Manchester United and the whole diving issue just refuses to go away. It is clear it becomes a little more prominent towards the end of the season as more players are trying desperately to pick up the points for clubs in search of titles, promotion or avoiding relegation.


I heard an argument that it looked a penalty on first instance, but this wasn't the game against QPR earlier in the month- that one certainly looked a penalty on first viewing and it was more down to the linesman missing the fact that Young was offside rather than the actual awarding of a penalty.


This one against Villa was different- I called it straight away that 'I bet he barely got touched' and that was because the fall was nowhere near being natural...


Go down to the park and have someone trip you up when you don't expect it and I guarantee there is no way you fling yourself up with arms flailing... In fact, the natural instinct is to throw at least one hand forward to protect yourself against the fall.


It is a shame that Young thinks United need to do this to win games when there is only 7 minutes on the clock. Bryan Robson said today that this is going to come and bite United in the backside if his reputation for being a diver is cemented and I can't disagree.


I know some don't care at the moment as long as United are winning, but the complaints will be loud if a 50-50 decision is not given our way in the Semi Final of a European Cup, because the referee is not convinced by Ashley Young.


However, Sir Alex Ferguson managed to get Ronaldo to be less content to fling himself to the ground during his time at Old Trafford and I think he'll be having plenty of words with Young over the last week.




Another thing that really annoys me- players feigning injuries: I am likely not the only one, but who else hates to see blokes that are big enough to block a doorway go down and roll around when the winds gusts up to 5mph?


I really hate it when a player is fouled but decides to roll around clutching their leg, yet will jump up if touched by the offending player, suddenly rediscovering their machismo and trying to get in the opposition faces...


Now I realise there isn't a lot you can do about that now, although I would like to see less of it, but what really bothers me is the player that will feign an injury when they have lost the ball in a dangerous spot, with all the team mates of said player demanding the opposition kick the ball out.


It becomes more than a little irritating when the player who couldn't move on the floor then gets up, the team's defensive shape is back, and they are applauded when they kick the ball back to the opposition goalkeeper...


Now that is as blatant cheating as diving in my opinion as players do this to allow their team to be re-organised and prevent any sort of counter attack developing so what would I do?


If I was making the rules, any time the team asks for the ball to be put out for an injury, they would have two options for their 'injured' player- either substitute him straight away, OR make him leave the field for 5 minutes... That would quickly make sure the team who had the counter attack opportunity do not lose their advantage for teams that are stretching the rule and I guarantee it would stop players demanding a ball is kicked out of play just so the downed team mate can get up and get back into a defensive shape.


It won't happen, but I can't be the only one that hates seeing that kind of thing.




Both Spanish Giants losing in the Champions League Semi Final: You would have been over the moon if you had backed both Real Madrid and Barcelona to lose the first leg of their respective Semi Finals this week, with both teams losing in differing circumstances.


Real Madrid were outplayed by Bayern Munich for the first half of their game, but I thought they would have pushed on when they equalised. However, it seemed Jose Mourinho was more than happy to take a score draw back to Madrid until they were undone with a last minute goal from Mario Gomez.


I still think this tie is very very close to call now as Bayern definitely look like they have at least one goal in them at the Santiago Bernebeu, while the attacking talent Real Madrid have is plain for all to see. Both defences looked a little nervy when being attacked and this could be another entertaining game next Wednesday.


By the way, I thought the game in Munich was good viewing so was a little surprised that so many didn't think so.




All credit to Chelsea for the way they won their Semi Final first leg as they employed the correct tactics and managed to score with their only meaningful effort all night.


But I don't want people to change their judgement of the game based on the scoreline- in all honesty, Barcelona dominated the game and created not one or two, but five clear cut chances that should really have been gobbled up.


I think Chelsea will go to the Nou Camp and set themselves up in a similar manner, but they will absolutely need to ride their luck as they did at Stamford Bridge and I would still happily favour Barcelona to overturn this deficit and get through on Tuesday.

Tennis Picks March 2nd

I was asked by a twitter follower why I don't really back the big 4 from Men's tennis in the handicap markets- I do pick them, but rarely in all honesty as the handicaps are usually skewed in favour of their opponents.

This week we have had Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic all playing in Dubai but they have gone a combined 3-6 in their matches on the handicap market. Now I didn't have much faith in backing the likes of Stebe, Stakhovsky, Berrer or Chiudinelli in their matches against these players, while you also need a bit of luck to cover the big handicaps they have been set.

Roger Federer was a great example today against Mikhail Youzhny- the Swiss player was considered a 5.5 game favourite and had chances to win both sets with a couple of breaks but couldn't quite convert. He had two break point chances at 5-2 in the first set and also had at least another three chances at 4-2 in the second set, where a break in either of those games would have seen him cover... Instead, Youzhny just held on and lost in a comfortable straight sets, but covered the spread by half a game.

The picks from yesterday all went very well, with all three winning and that has moved me back into a decent position for the week. I was in a similar spot this time last week, so I want to be careful and try to avoid giving back the profit I have made.

Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Now I know everything I said above, but I like Roger Federer in this match up against the Argentine who is still not at the level of 2009 when he was pushing Federer all the way in their matches.

In the last six months, Federer has met Del Potro three times and won on all three occasions as well as winning all 7 sets they have competed against one another.

None of these sets have gone to a tie-break and I think Federer has enough in his return game to find a way to break Del Potro in each set and that should be enough for him to cover this spread.

I still feel Del Potro has a mental hurdle to overcome against the top 4 players, and he has played a lot of tennis lately. It could be tough for the Argentine to get back up if Federer lands a couple of heavy shots early in the contest, with the match possibly having a similar feel to when they met in the Final in Rotterdam.

Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Marinko Matosevic: I really liked what I heard from Ernests Gulbis following his three set win over Steve Darcis in the last Round as it seems like things have finally clicked for him mentally in relation to what he wants from his tennis career.

Gulbis admitted he has only a couple years left to really begin making an impact on the Tour else it will be too late for him and he also feels it is illness and injuries that have prevented him doing so in the last seven months.

The Latvian has been playing well so far in the tournament and he clearly enjoys playing on what looks like a quick court at an event he has won in the past, while it is his most impressive performance since winning in Los Angeles last Summer.

Marinko Matosevic will not be an easy player to play as he should be full of confidence after coming through Qualifying here following winning a Challenger event back in Australia before that. However, I expect him to come under pressure from the Gulbis service games and I think the talented Latvian is going to come through in straight sets here, hopefully with a break in each set.

Fernando Verdasco v Stanislas Wawrinka: Did anyone else watch Fernando Verdasco's win over Nicolas Almagro yesterday? The Spaniard played some of his finest tennis for almost two sets before nerves got the better of him as he served for the match, even missing a match point. However, I was impressed with his fight in the tie-break to come from 2-5 down and win 5 points in a row to take the match.

There are still some doubts about his overall form, but I think Verdasco is having a big week and I want to stay with him having backed him in the last two Rounds.

His opponent, Stanislas Wawrinka, is no mug on the clay courts, but I think the Spaniard is playing at a decent level right now and could take this match. Wawrinka is capable of pressing the Verdasco serve, but is also liable to throwing in a bad service game per set and that could allow Verdasco to move through to his first Final since Estoril last year in April.

Kevin Anderson v Andy Roddick: This is a risky proposition, but I am taking the underdog as I want to fade Andy Roddick in this one.

Roddick admitted he is feeling a little better about his game, but he is still a little loose on his own service games and that is not the way you want to be against an opponent that is capable of holding serve for fun if on point.

I think this week has been about building a bit of confidence up for Roddick, something he has achieved, as well as bringing his physical well-being up a level before the big events at Indian Wells and Miami in the next month.

I don't think Roddick WANTS to lose, but I can see him falling away if Anderson can get his nose in front by winning the first set.

Anderson had a decent win over Xavier Malisse last night, but did have a hard time in a couple of service games. However, I don't think Roddick returns serve as well as Malisse does when he is up against the biggest servers on Tour, and I think the pressure could tell on the American.

Anderson also won the last meeting between the two having lost the previous two matches, and I am going to back him to level the head to head here.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: I think Philipp Kohlschreiber is playing like he really feels he can win this tournament at Delray Beach and I am going to back him to prove a point by dispatching Dudi Sela in relative comfort.

Sela has had a decent week so far, but Kohlschreiber represents a step up in level and the Israeli player had not been in great form before this week.

Sela also has a hit and miss serve that can really let him down and I would not be overly surprised if he was to drop serve a couple of times in one of the two sets.

Kohlschreiber has won their only previous meeting for the loss of just two games and while I don't think it will be that easy, I think the German has been playing well enough to suggest he gets through with a break in each set.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 6-3, + 6.06 Units (18 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks February 18th

It was another mixed day as a couple of picks came in easy, while a couple others were close but not enough...

The good news so far is that my two outright picks this week are both through to the Semi Finals as Nicolas Almagro beat Carlos Berlocq and Tomas Berdych beat Andreas Seppi. I wish I had stuck with my Milos Raonic pick too as he looks to have a clear path to retaining his title now, but I would be happy enough if one of the two players I did pick come in.

As has been the case all week, I will post my picks from the tennis as the markets are put up by the layers, something they seem to have taken their time putting together all week.

Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: The courts here in Rotterdam suit both of these players as they get the opportunity to really wind up on their groundstrokes and dominate rallies but something will have to give in the match between them.

I think the edge has to be given to Tomas Berdych due to the fact that his serve is a little more consistent and I think he is likely going to have a better time holding than Juan Martin Del Potro who can see his first serve percentage come down too low against the best players in the World.

I also think Berdych is in magnificent form at the moment, while Del Potro is still trying to find his best tennis since a wrist injury slowed down his career in 2010.

The key for both players will be to impose their own game on the match, but it could be the case of who manages to get the big strike in first in rallies that will determine the winner of points. I just think Berdych is a little too match hardened after his start to the 2012 season and that should see him through in two tough sets.


Marion Bartoli - 2.5 games v Sam Stosur: I was a little disappointed that Lucie Safarova could not stay within the handicap against Marion Bartoli in their Quarter Final match despite taking that to three sets, and I think that match will have given the French player a lot of confidence to reach the Final for the second time in consecutive tournaments.

Sam Stosur got through in three sets herself yesterday, but she was not that effective on serve and could face a couple of problems against Bartoli in this match if she does not make life easier for herself on that front.

These two players actually met twice last season and Bartoli won both meetings, including once on a hard court, without being broken once and only allowing 3 opportunities to Stosur in those matches.

Bartoli seems to have all the confidence following her run to the Paris Final last week and I think the fact she has handled Stosur comfortably in their last two meetings gives me more confidence that she can win this one.


MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marion Bartoli - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau - 2.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)


Weekly Update: - 0.36 Units (40 Units Staked)

Australian Open Day 11 Picks

The tournament is fast moving to its conclusion and I don't think there will be too many people out there that are disappointed with the line up we have in both the Men's and Women's draws.

Novak Djokovic worried me for a few moments as I thought the outright pick could be in real trouble, especially in the second set as David Ferrer looked to press home his advantage. However, the World Number 1 got a second wind and will look to take advantage of the couple of days rest he has before his Semi Final clash with Andy Murray.

Day 11 features both Women's Semi Finals, but also the magnificent looking match between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer so let's get on with the picks.

DAY 11 PICKS
Kim Clijsters vs Victoria Azarenka: I am already in a fairly nice position that I have both of these players in my outright picks, so I have Victoria Azarenka at 6.00 and Kim Clijsters at 11.00 to win the tournament outright.

However, I am going to have an interest in Kim Clijsters coming through this match as I think she is the stronger player of the two and I believe she has recovered from the ankle injury that threatened her tournament in the 4th Round win over Na Li.

Azarenka is a very good player, but one that likes dictating the rallies, something I don't think she will be given the opportunity to do in this match as Clijsters is the more powerful player off the ground.

Both players serves can sometimes let them down, but I think the Belgian also has the edge in this department too, while she also leads the head to head 4-2 (4-1 on hard courts).

It will be tight, but I am surprised that Clijsters is considered the underdog. I think it is also telling that Clijsters has been the favourite in every other meeting, with the longest odds being 1.68 in those matches.

I don't think enough has changed to have the Belgian as the underdog and will look for her to move on 6-4, 6-3

Maria Sharapova vs Petra Kvitova: Now I am picking the underdog here as well, despite the fact that I think Petra Kvitova is the most exciting player on the WTA Tour and would be a worthy World Number 1 at the end of this tournament.

However, she has not looked her dominating self in the last couple of Rounds as I think the slower courts means she has to do more with her shots, leading her to making more mistakes and showing a few inconsistencies in the shot making.

Now Kvitova faces Maria Sharapova, a player that has only been tested once in this tournament, but one that will have to display the mental strength she has become known for against her conqueror at Wimbledon last July.

My biggest concern with this pick is the Sharapova serve that can be a real liability when the pressure increases in matches, although she has done well in this department throughout the last 2 weeks. I also think Sharapova will be able to do a little more against Kvitova in the offensive department and might pressure her younger opponent enough to come through this one.

It's funny to think that around 2 months ago, Sharapova was the 1.55 favourite in this match, yet she is now the underdog. I think that is an over-reaction to the plaudits Kvitova is getting at the moment and the Russian has to be backed to come through in what should be an exciting Semi Final.

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer: I have never wanted to be more wrong about a pick than this one as I would love to see Federer reach the Final, but you can't argue with Nadal's record against him and I just feel there is a lot of value at the current prices on the Spanish World Number 2.

Nadal hasn't had a great tournament, but he has the game that is likely to cause Federer plenty of problems as it has in 19 of their previous 28 meetings.

The players that have had success against Nadal have begun using the backhand down the line to his backhand, but this is a shot I don't think Federer can hit with consistent effect and we will see a lot of heavy spins going to his backhand from the Nadal lefty forehand.

The other reason I want to keep Nadal onside in this one is the fact he has won the last 5 tie-breakers that they have played against one another, showing that he is effective in the big points in which, I would guess, he has hurt the backhand.

Nadal leads on outdoor hard courts 6-1 and has not been beaten on one of these courts since 2005 to Federer. The courts have been playing slow enough to suggest Federer will have to earn all his points and I just think Nadal will be too consistent.

I would love to be wrong, but I do think the Spaniard will get through in a long 4 or 5 setter.


MY PICKS: Kim Clijsters @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 2.25 BetFred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Australian Open Update: 18-13, + 12.26 Units

US Open Day 13 Super Saturday Picks

I am going to let my picks on Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Serena Williams run tonight as I have them all in the outright markets and feel at least 2 will win.

It will be a fantastic day of tennis IF the weather can stay away.

With all the College Football, English football and NFL Picks being made too, I don't think it's the time to double dip in the tennis.

The US Open update for profit/loss will be up tomorrow

Tennis Picks August 13th

After a horrendous start to the week and looking like I was going to struggle to a heavy loss, things turned around yesterday as all 5 picks came in as winners.

I really felt I deserved that change in fortune after having a few really close losses earlier in the week that added up to my struggles. Now I am back in profit for the daily picks with the Semi Finals tonight and the Finals tomorrow from the events in Montreal and Toronto.

On to the Picks:

Sam Stosur vs Agnieska Radwanska: I am going to back the Australian in this one to come through as the underdog.

Stosur has played well in her last 3 matches after struggling in Round 1, and I really think she has an excellent chance of making the Final. She is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that plays with a lot of heavy spin on her shots and that may make life difficult for a defensive player like Radwanska.

The other issue is the amount of matches Radwanska has had to play recently and fatigue must be an issue. Unlike a 2 week Grand Slam, the Pole has had very little rest after coming in from the West Coast of America on Monday following a win in San Diego.

This will eventually tell on Radwanska, and I think it is Stosur who will take advantage.


Mardy Fish - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: This may look a risky play after Mardy Fish decided to lose his mind when serving in the 2nd set against Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday, but I think he has the edge over Tipsarevic on the hard courts of North America.

Janko Tipsarevic is a very good player, but still is very inconsistent when following strong performances with very poor ones. His serve is effective on the faster surfaces, but I think Fish attacking the net will eventually pay dividends and allow the American to move through in 2 sets.

The first set could be a tight affair before Fish takes complete control, and the fact he has won their last 3 meetings on different surfaces should give the American additional confidence and reach yet another Masters Final on North American soil.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing some of the best stuff in his career over the last couple of months and has transferred his form from Wimbledon onto the hard courts here in Montreal.

He will receive a lot of support from the French-speaking residents of this city and I think he is playing well enough to at least pose problems for Djokovic.

What can I say about the Serb that hasn't been said already this season? He has lifted his level to such a high standard and to lose just 1 match all season in this period of Men's tennis is something very very special.

In saying that, I think Tsonga has the game to give anyone problems, and if he is hitting as clean as he has been this week, I really feel the Frenchman will give Djokovic his biggest test of the tournament this week.


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 2.20 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (1 Unit)




WEEKLY UPDATE: + 2.65 Units

Tennis Picks August 5th Kitzbuhel Semi Finals

I said yesterday that I was unlikely to make any further picks from this tournament because of the weather forecast, but the organisers did manage to get all the matches completed yesterday and they are now back up to date with their tournament.

That is good news as I think the 4 remaining players are all keen for the ranking points and I expect motivation to be high. After having a look at the odds on offer, I have decided to make 1 pick from the Semi Finals:

Juan Ignacio Chela vs Albert Montanes: I was a little surprised to see the Argentine at the odds he is as I think he has a clear advantage over Montanes in the match, although the layers make it a closer contest.

Chela has not been in good form at all since his run to the Quarter Finals of the French Open at the end of May, but he has come through 2 tough matches this week and could be in line to win another clay court title.

Montanes did well to win 2 matches in the same day to reach this Semi Final, but the Spaniard was another player that had struggled since having a decent go at the French Open.

With neither man in particularly strong form, the Chela 4-1 head to head record has to be considered, especially as all the matches have taken place on clay. Chela has won their last 2 meetings, both within the last 12 months, although it did take him 3 sets to see off Montanes earlier this season.

Their last match was close in terms of points won per player, and I think this one will be too- I just feel Chela has the mental edge in the contest and I think he will get through.


MY PICKS: Juan Ignacio Chela @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE KITZBUHEL: + 3.79 Units

Tennis Picks July 30th

I am going to put all my picks from the tournaments running in this one thread today but I will update the weekly totals separately as I have been doing all week.

It was a disappointing evening as both Maria Sharapova and Juan Martin Del Potro exited the tournaments. The latter is more disappointing as my biggest outright back of the week and it sounds like he was just not at the races.

Players like Ernests Gulbis can be very dangerous when they get hot, the problem for him is consistency to play like that against the lesser players.

Juan Carlos Ferrero is now the last man standing in terms of outright picks, but he would cover the entire outlay of the week if he can go on and retain his title in Umag- I just hope he can do it without the breakdown he had yesterday against Carlos Berlocq when losing 5 games in a row in the 2nd set and seeing his 5-1 lead disappear. The Spaniard did come through in straight sets, but it would have been nice if he had got off court a little earlier as he should have done.

Now on to the Picks:

Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from last week in Hamburg and I would not be surprised if we get a similar result (last week Almagro won 6-1, 6-4).

Almagro has been solid all week behind his serve and even doing double duty yesterday did not slow him down when beating Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez. If he continues to serve like that, he will put a lot of pressure on his compatriot today.

Fernando Verdasco did not play that well for 2 sets yesterday against Julien Benneteau and I just feel he is not quite at the races mentally this season. He seems to get through against the lesser players but struggles when faced against someone who is playing well.

The court has played fairly quickly all week and I feel that will give Almagro the edge too so I will back him to come through with a bit to spare.

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games vs Alexandr Dolgopolov: If anyone followed the outright picks at the start of the week, we have already got Juan Carlos Ferrero at 4.00 to win this match and get through to the Final so they may not want to put a bit more on him here.

However, I do want to back him again as I feel the match up is more in Ferrero's favour than the layers think it is. He is fairly consistent from the back of the court and could grind down Dolgopolov here, although I would like to see the Spaniard take care of his serve a little more.

Dolgopolov has not been getting enough first serves in and that could give him more problems here against a player like Ferrero who has the big groundstrokes. A lot of second serves will allow Ferrero to dictate more points and that could be the edge to this match.

They also met here last year in the Quarter Final and Dolgopolov was beaten heavily and won just 3 games in the 2 sets they competed.

I dont think it will be a blowout like that, but I do think Ferrero will come through and reach his 3rd consecutive Final here.

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from Atlanta last week and I dont see any reason to change my mind but to predict Mardy Fish to come through in 2 sets again.

Harrison has had the 2 most productive weeks of his short career so far and has showed the heart and belief to come through some tight spots, particularly in the 2nd set against Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but this is a huge step up from the quality of opponents he has played so far this week and I struggle to see how he can do enough to affect the Fish game.

The one thing in Harrison's favour is the amount of tennis Mardy Fish has played recently and whether that catches up with him here. However, Fish has been taking his fitness as seriously as he ever has and I am not sure if his losing energy is just clutching at straws.

I just think the Fish game is too big at this moment in time for the improving Harrison and I think a similar scoreline to last weeks 6-2, 6-4 could be in the offing.

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This could be the case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for Ernests Gulbis following his impressive straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am of the feeling that the Latvian is a momentum player that could be tough to stop this week.

He has played some decent tennis this week to get this far and was more than a little unfortunate to lose to James Blake in the 1st Round in Atlanta last week and Gulbis' better performances have generally come on the hard courts in recent seasons.

Gulbis has all the attributes in his game to be a good hard court player, but sometimes it is the thing between his ears that lets him down. The confidence from the win over Del Potro should give him the boost to reach the Final this week.

Alex Bogomolov is a journeyman player having his best year on the main tour so will not be easy pickings. He has reached the Quarter Finals in 3 of the last 5 tournaments he has played and also made it through to the 3rd Round at Wimbledon in that time so is in decent form.

However, I think it could be telling that he has had a few problems with the bigger hitters on the tour and Gulbis will fit into that category. Bogomolov has lost to John Isner, Gilles Muller and Tomas Berdych in recent weeks and I think the pressure of trying to hold serve could be too much for him today.

Gulbis is not the best person to trust, but I think he should be too strong for the American tonight.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games @ 1.83 10Bet (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE GSTAAD/UMAG: + 5.96 Units

WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.38 Units

Tennis Picks July 23rd Atlanta Semi Finals

I had a strong day in Atlanta yesterday as all 3 picks came in to push the profits up for the week.

Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.

The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.

Now on to the Picks:

John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).

The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.

Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.


Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.

This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.

Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.


MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)