After taking a few days off from the Tennis Picks at the end of Wimbledon it has proven to be a pretty good decision. The last two days have returned a 5-2 record from the seven selections made from Bastad and Newport and is going to prove to be a winning week to follow the successful Wimbledon.
On Saturday we move into the Semi Final matches at the five events being played this week, but I have only been focusing on the ATP events so far this week. That won't change in the final couple of days of the week before the Tour moves on to a number of new stops on Monday when I will be looking to produce another positive week of results to add to the season totals.
Keeping in mind I am only focusing on the three ATP events this week and the fact we are down to the Semi Final, it should not be a big surprise that options are perhaps limited for Saturday. In fact only a single match fit into the criteria to be one of the Picks made this week and you can read that below.
I have also updated the weekly totals following the 3-1 record on Friday.
Marcel Granollers - 2.5 games v Alexander Bublik: Neither of these players had a really strong grass court season over the last month, but their run in Newport is one that they will both appreciate. Both Marcel Granollers and Alexander Bublik have entered the top 100 of the World Rankings, but the key for them here is winning this event which could take them close to a position where they could enter Masters events without the need to Qualify.
That does mean there is plenty on the line for both and it is Marcel Granollers who has impressed the most and looks worthy of backing here.
The Spaniard has been playing the superior tennis on the grass courts over the last couple of years and his performances at this tournament over the last week have been very impressive. Marcel Granollers has a serve that can be very effective on the grass courts and so far he has held all service games played in this tournament. In fact he has only faced break points in one of his three matches played and it has allowed Granollers to free his arms when it comes to the return of serve.
He has been an effective returner anyway, but Granollers has been even more impressive so far this week. After winning 84% of points behind serve, Granollers has also managed to win 46% of points played on the opponent's serve and that should give him plenty of confidence to take into this match.
I am not suggesting Alexander Bublik has not been playing well, but he has needed to win all three of his matches in three sets and Bublik has come from behind in each of his last two wins. That will give him confidence for sure, but Bublik is only holding 78% of his service games played in Newport and I do think that is a slight concern if Granollers maintains his level.
Alexander Bublik has also broken in 27% of return games played this week compared with Granollers' 40% and I do think the latter deserves the edge in this one. You would think Marcel Granollers is going to come down from the pretty amazing numbers he has produced so far this week, but I do think his overall performances on the grass should give him the edge in the match and one that I believe warrants backing the Spaniard to cover the number here.
MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 6.02 Units (14 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Newport. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Newport. Show all posts
Saturday, 20 July 2019
Friday, 19 July 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (July 19th)
It was a solid enough Thursday with a 2-1 record from the Tennis Picks, although I do think there was every chance all three picks would have come back as winners if Pablo Cuevas had kept himself together in the middle of his defeat to Federico Delbonis.
Now we move onto the Quarter Final matches to be played on Friday around the five tournaments that are taking place this week. Unfortunately my internet has been down around the house on Thursday evening which means I have not been able to write out full analysis for the selections being made.
The fortunate part is that I did have time to research the four selections I am placing in the MY PICKS section below which will hopefully add to the positive start made on Thursday.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.20 Units (6 Units Staked, + 36.67% Yield)
Now we move onto the Quarter Final matches to be played on Friday around the five tournaments that are taking place this week. Unfortunately my internet has been down around the house on Thursday evening which means I have not been able to write out full analysis for the selections being made.
The fortunate part is that I did have time to research the four selections I am placing in the MY PICKS section below which will hopefully add to the positive start made on Thursday.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.20 Units (6 Units Staked, + 36.67% Yield)
Wednesday, 18 July 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (July 18th)
While we have a couple of tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and the ATP Bastad event which have regular start times, the ATP events in Umag and Newport have late starts which means the markets are slower at being released.
For now I am going to add my sole Pick from Bastad and I will add any from the other couple of ATP tournaments to this thread in a few hours from now.
The first couple of days after Wimbledon have been pretty positive for the Tennis Picks made and I am looking to keep the positive momentum going.
There are a lot of players who are more likely to be seen on the Challenger Tour who have entered the main Tour events this week so they can be a little tougher to read with the step up, but so far it has been a good week and I want that to continue as we move towards the middle of the tournaments.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: I'll be the first to admit that Fernando Verdasco is a player on the wane and one who can be difficult to trust considering some of the rumours that have swirled around his matches in recent years.
He had to come through in three sets in the First Round but Verdasco has continued his love affair with this tournament in Bastad.
I would expect Verdasco to be too good for Pedro Sousa who spends 99% of his time at the Challenger level and who hasn't exactly produced hugely impressive numbers in those matches. All respect to Sousa for coming through the First Round in the main draw here, but beating Radu Albot is a completely different test to trying to do the same to Verdasco in the Second Round.
I have little doubt that Verdasco is on the wane in his career, but his numbers on the clay courts have remained pretty strong in 2018. The results have not necessarily followed and Verdasco now throws in a really poor set compared with a couple of years ago when the Spaniard might have one or two poor games per match.
That is a concern when backing him to cover such a big number as this one, but I think Verdasco enjoys playing in Bastad and he is still significantly better than Sousa. The latter may have some good moments, but I expect Verdasco to wear him down with the superior tennis and I will back him to cover in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might be strange to see Albert Ramos-Vinolas down as the underdog in this Second Round match despite the fact he is the Seeded player who received a bye in the First Round. Add in the fact that this match is played on the favoured surface of the Spaniard and you can make a case for Ramos-Vinolas as the underdog.
However 2018 has been a difficult season for Ramos-Vinolas even on the clay courts and he has under performed to this point.
Now he faces a player in Dusan Lajovic who has been in very good form over the last couple of months and who has been playing the superior tennis of the two on this surface. There are still areas where Lajovic can look to improve, but his numbers on the clay courts have been strong enough to suggest he can get the better of Ramos-Vinolas especially with a solid win already under his belt.
I can see both players having their chances to break serve here, but Lajovic has been a little more productive when it comes to taking those opportunities.
I am expecting that to happen here and Lajovic is able to beat Ramos-Vinolas for the first time on clay and also cover the number on his way through to the Quarter Final in Umag on Friday.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It has recently been announced by Gilles Muller that he is planning to hang up his racquet at the end of the 2018 season. That may not be a big surprise when you see the slide down the World Rankings and the veteran is clearly not feeling he can play his best tennis nor having the desire to battle through Qualifiers to play in the big tournaments in the months ahead.
The final event he will play on grass comes here in Newport and Muller had a solid win in the First Round against Marcos Baghdatis which will give him some encouragement that he can have a strong week here.
He faces another veteran in Marcel Granollers, but the Spaniard is intent on fighting his way back up the World Rankings. Injuries and a loss of form have seen Granollers drop out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, and the majority of his 2018 has been on the Challenger Tour.
That isn't always a bad idea to step back and produce some wins and rebuild flagging confidence and Granollers has done that for the most part in 2018.
However you would expect Muller to be the favourite on the grass courts and he served well enough in the First Round to edge out Granollers. The return game is always a concern for Muller as is his poor season so far, but I think his win over Baghdatis could propel him to a strong week on the Tour and I like him to beat the Spaniard and cover the number in his Second Round win.
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 games v Tim Smyczek: There may be some regrets from Matthew Ebden that he was not able to go a little deeper into the Wimbledon draw after a very strong month on the grass courts. At least he gets the chance to finish his grass campaign on a high as Ebden bids to go one better than 2017 when he was beaten in the Newport Final.
This time Ebden is coming into the tournament in much better confidence after the strong results on the grass and the numbers have backed up the improved results.
I expect he will have too much for Tim Smyczek who battled through the First Round in a close match against Bjorn Fratangelo which could have easily gone the other way. Unlike Ebden, Smyczek's serve has shown to be pretty vulnerable on the grass courts and I expect the Australian to take advantage of that in this Second Round match.
This is not the first time they have played on the grass in 2018 after Ebden dismissed the challenge of Smyczek comfortably in Hertogenbosch last month. On that occasion Ebden lost just five games and I think he is going to be good enough to cover a big number in this Second Round clash too.
Smyczek's decision to take in a hard court Challenger event between this tournament and Wimbledon might not be ideal too even though he won in the First Round. I expect Ebden will be able to dominate his own service games for the most part and eventually expose the vulnerabilities of the Smyczek serve in a strong win.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: If Matthew Ebden was disappointed in his Wimbledon campaign you have to wonder what Mischa Zverev was feeling having been beaten in the First Round. That came just days after winning the title in Eastbourne and I have to factor in the expectation that Zverev could have been a little tired, although that doesn't give him an easy excuse for the poor First Round defeat.
This week there are no such fatigue issues and Zverev's game is tailor-made for the grass courts.
He will expect his serve to dominate Vasek Pospisil, who is a limited returner to say the least, but the key to this match is how well the German can begin to pick the big Pospisil serve.
The Canadian has been able to rattle through enough service games on the grass courts to keep him from ever being hammered on the scoreboard, while Pospisil is just as comfortable as Zverev getting up to the net and putting away volleys. Both players will be keen to get up to the net and put the pressure on their opponent to hit multiple passing shots to win the match, but I do edge towards Zverev being able to do that a little more than Pospisil.
Zverev has a few more effective returns than Pospisil and my bigger concern is that this is his first match on these grass courts having received a bye in the First Round. The first set could be very competitive with that in mind, but by the second I would expect Zverev to begin to get a read on the Pospisil serve and make enough returns to force a break or two.
That may be enough to cover the number in this Second Round match and I will back Zverev to earn the win and move through to the Quarter Final later this week.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.43% Yield)
For now I am going to add my sole Pick from Bastad and I will add any from the other couple of ATP tournaments to this thread in a few hours from now.
The first couple of days after Wimbledon have been pretty positive for the Tennis Picks made and I am looking to keep the positive momentum going.
There are a lot of players who are more likely to be seen on the Challenger Tour who have entered the main Tour events this week so they can be a little tougher to read with the step up, but so far it has been a good week and I want that to continue as we move towards the middle of the tournaments.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: I'll be the first to admit that Fernando Verdasco is a player on the wane and one who can be difficult to trust considering some of the rumours that have swirled around his matches in recent years.
He had to come through in three sets in the First Round but Verdasco has continued his love affair with this tournament in Bastad.
I would expect Verdasco to be too good for Pedro Sousa who spends 99% of his time at the Challenger level and who hasn't exactly produced hugely impressive numbers in those matches. All respect to Sousa for coming through the First Round in the main draw here, but beating Radu Albot is a completely different test to trying to do the same to Verdasco in the Second Round.
I have little doubt that Verdasco is on the wane in his career, but his numbers on the clay courts have remained pretty strong in 2018. The results have not necessarily followed and Verdasco now throws in a really poor set compared with a couple of years ago when the Spaniard might have one or two poor games per match.
That is a concern when backing him to cover such a big number as this one, but I think Verdasco enjoys playing in Bastad and he is still significantly better than Sousa. The latter may have some good moments, but I expect Verdasco to wear him down with the superior tennis and I will back him to cover in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might be strange to see Albert Ramos-Vinolas down as the underdog in this Second Round match despite the fact he is the Seeded player who received a bye in the First Round. Add in the fact that this match is played on the favoured surface of the Spaniard and you can make a case for Ramos-Vinolas as the underdog.
However 2018 has been a difficult season for Ramos-Vinolas even on the clay courts and he has under performed to this point.
Now he faces a player in Dusan Lajovic who has been in very good form over the last couple of months and who has been playing the superior tennis of the two on this surface. There are still areas where Lajovic can look to improve, but his numbers on the clay courts have been strong enough to suggest he can get the better of Ramos-Vinolas especially with a solid win already under his belt.
I can see both players having their chances to break serve here, but Lajovic has been a little more productive when it comes to taking those opportunities.
I am expecting that to happen here and Lajovic is able to beat Ramos-Vinolas for the first time on clay and also cover the number on his way through to the Quarter Final in Umag on Friday.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It has recently been announced by Gilles Muller that he is planning to hang up his racquet at the end of the 2018 season. That may not be a big surprise when you see the slide down the World Rankings and the veteran is clearly not feeling he can play his best tennis nor having the desire to battle through Qualifiers to play in the big tournaments in the months ahead.
The final event he will play on grass comes here in Newport and Muller had a solid win in the First Round against Marcos Baghdatis which will give him some encouragement that he can have a strong week here.
He faces another veteran in Marcel Granollers, but the Spaniard is intent on fighting his way back up the World Rankings. Injuries and a loss of form have seen Granollers drop out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, and the majority of his 2018 has been on the Challenger Tour.
That isn't always a bad idea to step back and produce some wins and rebuild flagging confidence and Granollers has done that for the most part in 2018.
However you would expect Muller to be the favourite on the grass courts and he served well enough in the First Round to edge out Granollers. The return game is always a concern for Muller as is his poor season so far, but I think his win over Baghdatis could propel him to a strong week on the Tour and I like him to beat the Spaniard and cover the number in his Second Round win.
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 games v Tim Smyczek: There may be some regrets from Matthew Ebden that he was not able to go a little deeper into the Wimbledon draw after a very strong month on the grass courts. At least he gets the chance to finish his grass campaign on a high as Ebden bids to go one better than 2017 when he was beaten in the Newport Final.
This time Ebden is coming into the tournament in much better confidence after the strong results on the grass and the numbers have backed up the improved results.
I expect he will have too much for Tim Smyczek who battled through the First Round in a close match against Bjorn Fratangelo which could have easily gone the other way. Unlike Ebden, Smyczek's serve has shown to be pretty vulnerable on the grass courts and I expect the Australian to take advantage of that in this Second Round match.
This is not the first time they have played on the grass in 2018 after Ebden dismissed the challenge of Smyczek comfortably in Hertogenbosch last month. On that occasion Ebden lost just five games and I think he is going to be good enough to cover a big number in this Second Round clash too.
Smyczek's decision to take in a hard court Challenger event between this tournament and Wimbledon might not be ideal too even though he won in the First Round. I expect Ebden will be able to dominate his own service games for the most part and eventually expose the vulnerabilities of the Smyczek serve in a strong win.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: If Matthew Ebden was disappointed in his Wimbledon campaign you have to wonder what Mischa Zverev was feeling having been beaten in the First Round. That came just days after winning the title in Eastbourne and I have to factor in the expectation that Zverev could have been a little tired, although that doesn't give him an easy excuse for the poor First Round defeat.
This week there are no such fatigue issues and Zverev's game is tailor-made for the grass courts.
He will expect his serve to dominate Vasek Pospisil, who is a limited returner to say the least, but the key to this match is how well the German can begin to pick the big Pospisil serve.
The Canadian has been able to rattle through enough service games on the grass courts to keep him from ever being hammered on the scoreboard, while Pospisil is just as comfortable as Zverev getting up to the net and putting away volleys. Both players will be keen to get up to the net and put the pressure on their opponent to hit multiple passing shots to win the match, but I do edge towards Zverev being able to do that a little more than Pospisil.
Zverev has a few more effective returns than Pospisil and my bigger concern is that this is his first match on these grass courts having received a bye in the First Round. The first set could be very competitive with that in mind, but by the second I would expect Zverev to begin to get a read on the Pospisil serve and make enough returns to force a break or two.
That may be enough to cover the number in this Second Round match and I will back Zverev to earn the win and move through to the Quarter Final later this week.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.43% Yield)
Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (July 17th)
I've got a few things going on at the moment in my personal life which means I will simply put down my Tennis Picks from the host of Tuesday matches that have been scheduled.
MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
Monday, 16 July 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (July 16th)
And just like that the World Cup and Wimbledon come to an end on the same day and sports fans must be feeling the void.
However the Tennis Tour doesn't stop until November and that means on Monday five new tournaments get underway across Europe and North America.
Clay events in Bastad and Umag are available for the ATP players, while there are a couple of clay court events in Bucharest and Gstaad for the WTA players. We also have the official end of the grass court season in Newport.
The next couple of weeks are a good time for the clay court players out there, but for many others the start of the hard court season is fast approaching as the build towards the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open gets going. At the end of July we will have events in California, Atlanta and Washington before we get into the two back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati.
The men's US Open looks like it will be a lot of fun now Novak Djokovic has joined Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the defending Champion, as a Slam holder in 2018. And the women's tournament doesn't look any less exciting although I imagine Serena Williams will be going in as the favourite at Flushing Meadows.
Wimbledon wasn't a great tournament for the Tennis Picks, but adding more positive numbers to the season can't be complained about and I am now hoping to keep the momentum going.
This week may be a little more difficult to find consistent picks with the majority of the big names out of action, but on this Monday I do have a couple of Tennis Picks.
However I haven't had the time to write out a full analysis of the matches and instead you can read them in the 'MY PICKS' section.
MY PICKS: Guido Pella - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Smyczek @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Season 2018 Update: + 33.36 Units (1165 Units Staked, + 2.86% Yield)
However the Tennis Tour doesn't stop until November and that means on Monday five new tournaments get underway across Europe and North America.
Clay events in Bastad and Umag are available for the ATP players, while there are a couple of clay court events in Bucharest and Gstaad for the WTA players. We also have the official end of the grass court season in Newport.
The next couple of weeks are a good time for the clay court players out there, but for many others the start of the hard court season is fast approaching as the build towards the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open gets going. At the end of July we will have events in California, Atlanta and Washington before we get into the two back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati.
The men's US Open looks like it will be a lot of fun now Novak Djokovic has joined Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the defending Champion, as a Slam holder in 2018. And the women's tournament doesn't look any less exciting although I imagine Serena Williams will be going in as the favourite at Flushing Meadows.
Wimbledon wasn't a great tournament for the Tennis Picks, but adding more positive numbers to the season can't be complained about and I am now hoping to keep the momentum going.
This week may be a little more difficult to find consistent picks with the majority of the big names out of action, but on this Monday I do have a couple of Tennis Picks.
However I haven't had the time to write out a full analysis of the matches and instead you can read them in the 'MY PICKS' section.
MY PICKS: Guido Pella - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Smyczek @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Season 2018 Update: + 33.36 Units (1165 Units Staked, + 2.86% Yield)
Sunday, 17 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 17th)
Another week on the Tour is almost completed as we get to see the Finals from Bastad, Bucharest, Hamburg, Gstaad and Newport all played on Sunday.
The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are also completed on Sunday and all four ties are still alive going into the final day. That means there are some big Singles Rubbers to be played in the four locations those Quarter Finals are being played and the potential of seeing players have to get through a Rubber 5 match is going to be fun to watch.
The picks have had a second successful set of tournaments in a row following on from a strong Wimbledon, but I need to build on this through the remainder of the season. That consistency has not been with me over the last twelve months and I also have to be careful Sunday doesn't ruin what has been a strong week so far with the remaining picks for these tournaments.
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: It was another match where Pablo Cuevas did not drop serve, but he failed to cover the handicap for me in his Semi Final win over Renzo Olivo. However I liked the fact that Cuevas created as many chances to break serve as he did and I think he is in the kind of form which will make it difficult for Martin Klizan to get the better of him.
Injuries have affected the Klizan season, but I am never really fully convinced about this player. He has a very good serve, but Klizan seems to go walkabout mentally in matches and that will be exposed by someone like Cuevas who seems to be much more steady with his form within matches.
This week has been a strong one for Klizan who has won the last seven sets he has competed in, although I have to say he has been favoured by the draw. Klizan has beaten Daniel Gimeno Traver and Stephane Robert in the last two Rounds after both of those players came through tough matches prior to facing the Slovakian. That has been a big bonus for Klizan who went 1-3 on the clay courts at this time of the year in 2015 and who faces his most difficult opponent of the week.
I think Cuevas will have an edge in the Final as he has played better on the clay than his opponent and doesn't have the same fluctuations in form as Klizan does. If he continues serving as he has been, I think Cuevas comes through with a 75, 64 win and I will back him to cover this handicap on the way to picking up another clay court title in 2016.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The two Semi Final matches in Bastad had to be played simultaneously thanks to the poor weather in the area, but the title will once again be won by a Spaniard. Albert Ramos-Vinolas beat David Ferrer in the Semi Final to snap his run of six losses to his compatriot, but this might be the tougher match at this point with Fernando Verdasco showing his top form on his run to the Final.
After recovering an early break in his own Semi Final, Verdasco dominated Gastao Elias and none of the players he has faced so far this week have managed to take more than three games in a single set against him. While saying that, it has to be noted that is easily the most difficult match Verdasco will have faced in Bastad.
It is strange to see Ramos-Vinolas coming in as the higher Ranked player, but there is no doubting the respect Verdasco will offer him as the former reached the Quarter Final at the French Open. The key for Ramos-Vinolas will be dealing with the power that Verdasco has, while the latter is also very strong when facing fellow lefties on the Tour.
These moments have become much rarer for Verdasco than a few years ago, but I have to think he has to be backed to overcome Ramos-Vinolas. I feel Verdasco has been playing some of his best tennis this week and he used his momentum to win one title in Bucharest earlier in the season and his current momentum will make it difficult for Ramos-Vinolas to stop him.
After a close first set, I think Verdasco will earn a little more belief and win this title with a 75, 64 win.
Gilles Muller v Ivo Karlovic: There is going to be a couple of mental hurdles for Gilles Muller to overcome in the Newport Final, but doing that will give him a chance to win his first ever title on the main Tour. The first is dealing with the Ivo Karlovic serve which can be frustrating at the best of times and the second is overcoming any nerves in trying to win a first main Tour title.
Muller will have recent experience of playing in a Final having reached that position on the grass in Hertogenbosch last month having beaten Karlovic on the way through. His serve was very impressive that day and Muller will need to serve well as he won't have a lot of chances to break serve in this one himself.
Tie-breakers are likely to be the order of the day, but Muller's lefty serve can give him an advantage when it comes to securing points behind serve. That shot naturally goes into the weaker Karlovic wing and the key for both players might be getting off the first shot when they do see any second serves.
Both players have admitted that there is little between them and a few big points will decide the match. However I like the underdog Muller in terms of recent form and I will back him to win his first title at odds against.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Fabio Fognini played twice on Saturday, winning the Singles Rubber but taking part in the Doubles defeat later in the day. That means the pressure is on Fognini to keep Italy in the tie and force a final Rubber to decide the Semi Final place, but he has thrived in Davis Cup action representing his country.
The destruction of Juan Monaco on Saturday had much to do with Fognini's opponent playing far below the level he usually produces. However that has improved Fognini's Davis Cup record as he gets set for a much more difficult task in beating Federico Delbonis who has a 2-1 head to head advantage over him on the clay courts.
Delbonis played very well in beating Andreas Seppi on Friday and he will be well rested as he looks to secure Argentina's place in the Semi Finals. His lefty serve is a real threat on the clay courts, but managing the crowd will be a difficulty for him despite winning his first away Rubber in the Davis Cup on Friday.
I definitely think this will be a lot closer than Fognini's win over Monaco, but I still think the home favourite can come through. Andreas Seppi wasn't totally at the races in his defeat to Delbonis on Friday, but he came close to getting into a commanding position in that match and I think Fognini will be a little better in a 63, 36, 63, 76 win.
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This could be the crucial Rubber for Great Britain if they want to continue the defence of the Davis Cup they won last season with the pressure piled on Kyle Edmund to get it done. The performance of James Ward in his Singles defeat on Saturday doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn that around against Janko Tipsarevic and so Great Britain will be looking at Edmund.
This is going to be a much tougher test for Edmund when he faces Dusan Lajovic who was convincingly better than Ward on Saturday. His best performances come on the clay courts and Lajovic has had some top wins on the surface while also pushing Stan Wawrinka to four sets in a defeat to him in the Second Round of the French Open that Wawrinka eventually won.
Lajovic looked to have plenty of variation in his game on Saturday and the backhand down the line looked very good. However the power looks like it will come from the Edmund side of the court and this looks a fascinating Rubber 4 that has plenty on the line for both nations.
I would be surprised if either player has as 'easy' a time as they did in their first Singles wins. With both Lajovic and Edmund comfortable on the clay courts I am fully expecting this to go at least four sets and it might even develop into a classic five setter. Either way I am looking for the players to combine to cover the total games market and we might also potentially see a final Rubber to decide the winner of the tie.
Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v John Isner: It won't be many times in a players career that they would have lost back to back five set matches while leading 2-0 in sets. That is what Marin Cilic has to deal with, but helping Ivan Dodig win the Doubles Rubber in this Davis Cup tie on Saturday has kept Croatia alive and I think Cilic can get the better of John Isner in this big Rubber 4.
That would bring Croatia back to 2-2 in the tie, although Cilic's defeat to Jack Sock has to have left some mental scars after he blew his chances to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Cilic didn't serve well enough in the match with Sock and failing to do better in that department will make it almost impossible to beat a huge server like John Isner who won't give up too many chances on his own serve.
Isner will have some sympathy for Cilic having also been beaten at Wimbledon despite taking the first two sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He at least bounced back by beating Borna Coric comfortably in this tie and Isner was rested for the Doubles which would have been expected to be the last Rubber as the USA can call upon the Bryan Brothers.
He will have his own mental demons to cope with as Isner has lost all five previous matches against Cilic. Those losses include straight set losses in the United States in Miami and Delray Beach, but the two Grand Slam matches have both gone the distance and needed at least sixteen games in the final set to separate them.
I can't imagine this being an easy win for either player, but Cilic can use the fact he has beaten Isner every time they have met to his favour. Even at two sets up it won't be easy for Cilic having blown his last two Singles matches from that position, but I like him keeping this tie alive for the final Rubber.
Jack Sock - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: This final Rubber will only be played if Marin Cilic has been able to beat John Isner like I think he will and that will mean the pressure is on the two young players in the United States and Croatia squads.
I have to say that Jack Sock showed tremendous resolve in coming back from two sets down to beat Cilic on Friday and it is the kind of performance that can jump start his career. However the full effect of that win will only be felt if Sock is able to complete the win for the United States and that is a different kind of pressure for him to deal with as he will be expected to win the match.
He is facing a very talented player in Borna Coric but one who has struggled for consistency on what is a long season on the Tour. Since his run to the Final in Chennai at the start of the season, Coric has had a hard time earning results on the hard courts as his serve can be a little inconsistent which can be devastating on the faster surfaces.
Coric was beaten fairly handily by John Isner on Friday and I think Sock can give him plenty of problems too. Sock will have to serve better than he did in his win over Cilic, particularly the way he served in the first two sets, but I think the American can bring it home for his nation in a 64, 76, 63 win.
Gilles Muller v Ivo Karlovic: There is going to be a couple of mental hurdles for Gilles Muller to overcome in the Newport Final, but doing that will give him a chance to win his first ever title on the main Tour. The first is dealing with the Ivo Karlovic serve which can be frustrating at the best of times and the second is overcoming any nerves in trying to win a first main Tour title.
Muller will have recent experience of playing in a Final having reached that position on the grass in Hertogenbosch last month having beaten Karlovic on the way through. His serve was very impressive that day and Muller will need to serve well as he won't have a lot of chances to break serve in this one himself.
Tie-breakers are likely to be the order of the day, but Muller's lefty serve can give him an advantage when it comes to securing points behind serve. That shot naturally goes into the weaker Karlovic wing and the key for both players might be getting off the first shot when they do see any second serves.
Both players have admitted that there is little between them and a few big points will decide the match. However I like the underdog Muller in terms of recent form and I will back him to win his first title at odds against.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Fabio Fognini played twice on Saturday, winning the Singles Rubber but taking part in the Doubles defeat later in the day. That means the pressure is on Fognini to keep Italy in the tie and force a final Rubber to decide the Semi Final place, but he has thrived in Davis Cup action representing his country.
The destruction of Juan Monaco on Saturday had much to do with Fognini's opponent playing far below the level he usually produces. However that has improved Fognini's Davis Cup record as he gets set for a much more difficult task in beating Federico Delbonis who has a 2-1 head to head advantage over him on the clay courts.
Delbonis played very well in beating Andreas Seppi on Friday and he will be well rested as he looks to secure Argentina's place in the Semi Finals. His lefty serve is a real threat on the clay courts, but managing the crowd will be a difficulty for him despite winning his first away Rubber in the Davis Cup on Friday.
I definitely think this will be a lot closer than Fognini's win over Monaco, but I still think the home favourite can come through. Andreas Seppi wasn't totally at the races in his defeat to Delbonis on Friday, but he came close to getting into a commanding position in that match and I think Fognini will be a little better in a 63, 36, 63, 76 win.
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This could be the crucial Rubber for Great Britain if they want to continue the defence of the Davis Cup they won last season with the pressure piled on Kyle Edmund to get it done. The performance of James Ward in his Singles defeat on Saturday doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn that around against Janko Tipsarevic and so Great Britain will be looking at Edmund.
This is going to be a much tougher test for Edmund when he faces Dusan Lajovic who was convincingly better than Ward on Saturday. His best performances come on the clay courts and Lajovic has had some top wins on the surface while also pushing Stan Wawrinka to four sets in a defeat to him in the Second Round of the French Open that Wawrinka eventually won.
Lajovic looked to have plenty of variation in his game on Saturday and the backhand down the line looked very good. However the power looks like it will come from the Edmund side of the court and this looks a fascinating Rubber 4 that has plenty on the line for both nations.
I would be surprised if either player has as 'easy' a time as they did in their first Singles wins. With both Lajovic and Edmund comfortable on the clay courts I am fully expecting this to go at least four sets and it might even develop into a classic five setter. Either way I am looking for the players to combine to cover the total games market and we might also potentially see a final Rubber to decide the winner of the tie.
Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v John Isner: It won't be many times in a players career that they would have lost back to back five set matches while leading 2-0 in sets. That is what Marin Cilic has to deal with, but helping Ivan Dodig win the Doubles Rubber in this Davis Cup tie on Saturday has kept Croatia alive and I think Cilic can get the better of John Isner in this big Rubber 4.
That would bring Croatia back to 2-2 in the tie, although Cilic's defeat to Jack Sock has to have left some mental scars after he blew his chances to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Cilic didn't serve well enough in the match with Sock and failing to do better in that department will make it almost impossible to beat a huge server like John Isner who won't give up too many chances on his own serve.
Isner will have some sympathy for Cilic having also been beaten at Wimbledon despite taking the first two sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He at least bounced back by beating Borna Coric comfortably in this tie and Isner was rested for the Doubles which would have been expected to be the last Rubber as the USA can call upon the Bryan Brothers.
He will have his own mental demons to cope with as Isner has lost all five previous matches against Cilic. Those losses include straight set losses in the United States in Miami and Delray Beach, but the two Grand Slam matches have both gone the distance and needed at least sixteen games in the final set to separate them.
I can't imagine this being an easy win for either player, but Cilic can use the fact he has beaten Isner every time they have met to his favour. Even at two sets up it won't be easy for Cilic having blown his last two Singles matches from that position, but I like him keeping this tie alive for the final Rubber.
Jack Sock - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: This final Rubber will only be played if Marin Cilic has been able to beat John Isner like I think he will and that will mean the pressure is on the two young players in the United States and Croatia squads.
I have to say that Jack Sock showed tremendous resolve in coming back from two sets down to beat Cilic on Friday and it is the kind of performance that can jump start his career. However the full effect of that win will only be felt if Sock is able to complete the win for the United States and that is a different kind of pressure for him to deal with as he will be expected to win the match.
He is facing a very talented player in Borna Coric but one who has struggled for consistency on what is a long season on the Tour. Since his run to the Final in Chennai at the start of the season, Coric has had a hard time earning results on the hard courts as his serve can be a little inconsistent which can be devastating on the faster surfaces.
Coric was beaten fairly handily by John Isner on Friday and I think Sock can give him plenty of problems too. Sock will have to serve better than he did in his win over Cilic, particularly the way he served in the first two sets, but I think the American can bring it home for his nation in a 64, 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 23-14, + 13.42 Units (74 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)
Gilles Muller @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 23-14, + 13.42 Units (74 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)
Saturday, 16 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 16th)
It looks like me and the Davis Cup just simply didn't agree with one another on Friday as all four of my picks from that tournament which were completed came back as losing ones.
The most irritating has to be Marin Cilic blowing a two sets lead for the second time in a row in his defeat to Jack Sock, while the Janko Tipsarevic pick was simply a poor one from start to finish.
Those Davis Cups ruined what was looking a strong day, but at least the week's totals are still intact going into the final couple of days of tournaments this week.
One piece of news that might have gone under the radar for some of the casual fans is the latest entrants to the Hall of Fame. Marat Safin was one of my favourite players on the Tour not only for his skill, but the charismatic Russian was always a joy to watch as you simply didn't know what kind of mood he was going to be in.
A two time Grand Slam Champion, Safin will be entering the Hall of Fame on Saturday and I am looking forward to reading his speech as he rightly takes his place amongst the greats of the game.
It is Semi Final day in Bastad, Bucharest, Hamburg and Newport while the tournament in Gstaad will see plenty of tennis played as both Quarter Final and Semi Final Rounds are played on the same day.
Hopefully it will be a better Saturday than Friday was for the picks going into these final couple of days of this latest week on the Tour.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Renzo Olivo: There might be a big difference in terms of the World Rankings between these two South American players, but both have shown considerable form in Hamburg so far this week. A run to the Semi Final is going to give Renzo Olivo a huge boost in terms of his World Ranking, but it should also have given him the confidence to challenge Pablo Cuevas who has yet to drop a set in the tournament.
I have to say I have been impressed with the resolve Olivo has shown so far this week- he came back from dropping the second set 62 to Mikhail Youzhny to win that First Round match and recovered from dropping the first set 61 to Philipp Kohlschreiber in his Quarter Final win over the home favourite.
That resolve will be tested to the fullest by Cuevas who has won his three matches with some margin of error. Cuevas has won a couple of clay court titles already this season and is in line to break his career high World Ranking of Number 21 if he can go on and win the title in Hamburg, while the Uruguayan has dropped just 19 games in three Rounds this week.
Cuevas has dominated the last two matches these two have competed against one another, although the last of those came back in 2014. He is a much stronger player these days and is serving brilliantly so far this week and Olivo has struggled to really get himself into a position to compete at this level consistently. After a tight first set, I think Cuevas can take full control of this match with a 64, 62 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: David Ferrer did his best to almost blow a very winnable Quarter Final against Dustin Brown, but he knuckled down at just the right time to move into another Semi Final in Bastad. The veteran Spaniard will have to be better if he is going to improve his 6-0 record against compatriot Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Ramos-Vinolas had a tougher than expected win on Friday in his own Quarter Final and the key for him is to get over the mental barrier of facing someone like Ferrer. There always seems to be a 'pecking order' when it comes to players meeting others from their own nation and Ramos-Vinolas will be mentally behind in this one having lost all previous matches against Ferrer.
His lefty serve can be very effective at times, but Ramos-Vinolas is not blessed with the power of some others on the Tour which means he has to work hard to win every point. That can be a really tough proposition against a player like Ferrer who has thrived on being able to grind down opponents throughout his career, even if there is little doubt that Ferrer is coming to the end of his top level career in my opinion.
Covering this number of games is anything but straight-forward for Ferrer, but I do think he is more likely to win a set with a double break which can give him a chance to do that. Even in a three set win, as he did in Rio de Janeiro earlier this season, Ferrer will then have a chance to get past this number and I will back him to do that.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a good week to back Fernando Verdasco who has won all three matches he has played very comfortably on the scoreboard. The Spaniard has only dropped thirteen games overall in those three wins and he has been covering his handicaps easily enough, while I have been behind him in every Round.
This initially did feel it could be a big number against Gastao Elias who surprised Joao Sousa in the Quarter Final for the loss of just four games. However Elias generally doesn't play at the highest level and he was a little fortunate to get the better of Taro Daniel in the Second Round, while there can be little doubt that Verdasco is the toughest challenge he would have faced in the form the latter is in.
Verdasco's power can make him a big threat to anyone when on his 'A' game, but he might not even have needed to reach that level in a weak field. The expectation will be that he plays in the Final now and I think Verdasco has the kind of firepower that will push and prod Elias around the court.
The key for Verdasco will be to have success against the Elias second serve, but he will also believe he can get involved in many return games simply by getting the ball back into play. He won't feel Elias has the power to run him off the court and Verdasco will be tough to stop if he continues serving at the same level he has produced so far this week.
It could be the most games he drops in a single match this week, but Verdasco is my pick to cover this number behind a 64, 63 win.
Marcos Baghdatis v Ivo Karlovic: This looks an interesting Semi Final in Newport and I would imagine the winning player will be the favourite to win the title on Sunday. The layers have set Marcos Baghdatis as a slight underdog against Ivo Karlovic, but I think that might be wrong and I like the Cypriot to get past the big server in this one.
Baghdatis has looked the stronger player this week, but the key for him will be to avoid becoming too frustrated if Karlovic is serving big, which has to be expected. He was beaten by John Isner at Wimbledon, but Baghdatis has beaten Karlovic in three of four previous matches and that should give him a little more confidence he can get past his opponent.
This has been a tough season for Karlovic and he has yet to face someone with the quality that Baghdatis can bring to the court. Karlovic could easily have been beaten by Frank Dancevic in the Second Round and Marco Chiudinelli is not the same level as Baghdatis who has won his two matches very comfortably so far.
I wouldn't hold my breath looking for a lot of rallies in this one, and Baghdatis has to be careful that he doesn't allow Karlovic to see too many second serves. It will come down to a couple of big points here and there to decide the winner, but I am not convinced Baghdatis should have been the underdog to do that and I will back the Cypriot to reach the Final.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: It has been an awful tournament in Gstaad in terms of weather and that means players will be playing Quarter Final and Semi Final matches on Saturday. That might mean motivation is perhaps lacking in some players, but you can't use that as an excuse for the Number 1 Seed and Swiss favourite Timea Bacsinszky.
She has looked good so far in the tournament with back to back wins coming by wide margins and Bacsinszky will believe she can get the better of Johanna Larsson, a player she has beaten three previous times. That includes beating her on the clay courts earlier this season and the form displayed by Bacsinszky so far in Gstaad makes it tough to think she will be stopped in this Quarter Final.
I do respect Larsson who perhaps has underachieved a little bit considering she has a pretty decent serve for the WTA Tour. A lot of her more positive results have also come on the clay courts, but errors can be extracted from Larsson on her groundstrokes which is an area in which Bacsinszky thrives.
I expect that to make the difference in this Quarter Final and I can see the match potentially running away from Larsson once she falls behind. I will be looking for Bacsinszky to come through with a 64, 62 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 21-11, + 15.42 Units (64 Units Staked, + 24.09% Yield)
The most irritating has to be Marin Cilic blowing a two sets lead for the second time in a row in his defeat to Jack Sock, while the Janko Tipsarevic pick was simply a poor one from start to finish.
Those Davis Cups ruined what was looking a strong day, but at least the week's totals are still intact going into the final couple of days of tournaments this week.
One piece of news that might have gone under the radar for some of the casual fans is the latest entrants to the Hall of Fame. Marat Safin was one of my favourite players on the Tour not only for his skill, but the charismatic Russian was always a joy to watch as you simply didn't know what kind of mood he was going to be in.
A two time Grand Slam Champion, Safin will be entering the Hall of Fame on Saturday and I am looking forward to reading his speech as he rightly takes his place amongst the greats of the game.
It is Semi Final day in Bastad, Bucharest, Hamburg and Newport while the tournament in Gstaad will see plenty of tennis played as both Quarter Final and Semi Final Rounds are played on the same day.
Hopefully it will be a better Saturday than Friday was for the picks going into these final couple of days of this latest week on the Tour.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Renzo Olivo: There might be a big difference in terms of the World Rankings between these two South American players, but both have shown considerable form in Hamburg so far this week. A run to the Semi Final is going to give Renzo Olivo a huge boost in terms of his World Ranking, but it should also have given him the confidence to challenge Pablo Cuevas who has yet to drop a set in the tournament.
I have to say I have been impressed with the resolve Olivo has shown so far this week- he came back from dropping the second set 62 to Mikhail Youzhny to win that First Round match and recovered from dropping the first set 61 to Philipp Kohlschreiber in his Quarter Final win over the home favourite.
That resolve will be tested to the fullest by Cuevas who has won his three matches with some margin of error. Cuevas has won a couple of clay court titles already this season and is in line to break his career high World Ranking of Number 21 if he can go on and win the title in Hamburg, while the Uruguayan has dropped just 19 games in three Rounds this week.
Cuevas has dominated the last two matches these two have competed against one another, although the last of those came back in 2014. He is a much stronger player these days and is serving brilliantly so far this week and Olivo has struggled to really get himself into a position to compete at this level consistently. After a tight first set, I think Cuevas can take full control of this match with a 64, 62 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: David Ferrer did his best to almost blow a very winnable Quarter Final against Dustin Brown, but he knuckled down at just the right time to move into another Semi Final in Bastad. The veteran Spaniard will have to be better if he is going to improve his 6-0 record against compatriot Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Ramos-Vinolas had a tougher than expected win on Friday in his own Quarter Final and the key for him is to get over the mental barrier of facing someone like Ferrer. There always seems to be a 'pecking order' when it comes to players meeting others from their own nation and Ramos-Vinolas will be mentally behind in this one having lost all previous matches against Ferrer.
His lefty serve can be very effective at times, but Ramos-Vinolas is not blessed with the power of some others on the Tour which means he has to work hard to win every point. That can be a really tough proposition against a player like Ferrer who has thrived on being able to grind down opponents throughout his career, even if there is little doubt that Ferrer is coming to the end of his top level career in my opinion.
Covering this number of games is anything but straight-forward for Ferrer, but I do think he is more likely to win a set with a double break which can give him a chance to do that. Even in a three set win, as he did in Rio de Janeiro earlier this season, Ferrer will then have a chance to get past this number and I will back him to do that.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a good week to back Fernando Verdasco who has won all three matches he has played very comfortably on the scoreboard. The Spaniard has only dropped thirteen games overall in those three wins and he has been covering his handicaps easily enough, while I have been behind him in every Round.
This initially did feel it could be a big number against Gastao Elias who surprised Joao Sousa in the Quarter Final for the loss of just four games. However Elias generally doesn't play at the highest level and he was a little fortunate to get the better of Taro Daniel in the Second Round, while there can be little doubt that Verdasco is the toughest challenge he would have faced in the form the latter is in.
Verdasco's power can make him a big threat to anyone when on his 'A' game, but he might not even have needed to reach that level in a weak field. The expectation will be that he plays in the Final now and I think Verdasco has the kind of firepower that will push and prod Elias around the court.
The key for Verdasco will be to have success against the Elias second serve, but he will also believe he can get involved in many return games simply by getting the ball back into play. He won't feel Elias has the power to run him off the court and Verdasco will be tough to stop if he continues serving at the same level he has produced so far this week.
It could be the most games he drops in a single match this week, but Verdasco is my pick to cover this number behind a 64, 63 win.
Marcos Baghdatis v Ivo Karlovic: This looks an interesting Semi Final in Newport and I would imagine the winning player will be the favourite to win the title on Sunday. The layers have set Marcos Baghdatis as a slight underdog against Ivo Karlovic, but I think that might be wrong and I like the Cypriot to get past the big server in this one.
Baghdatis has looked the stronger player this week, but the key for him will be to avoid becoming too frustrated if Karlovic is serving big, which has to be expected. He was beaten by John Isner at Wimbledon, but Baghdatis has beaten Karlovic in three of four previous matches and that should give him a little more confidence he can get past his opponent.
This has been a tough season for Karlovic and he has yet to face someone with the quality that Baghdatis can bring to the court. Karlovic could easily have been beaten by Frank Dancevic in the Second Round and Marco Chiudinelli is not the same level as Baghdatis who has won his two matches very comfortably so far.
I wouldn't hold my breath looking for a lot of rallies in this one, and Baghdatis has to be careful that he doesn't allow Karlovic to see too many second serves. It will come down to a couple of big points here and there to decide the winner, but I am not convinced Baghdatis should have been the underdog to do that and I will back the Cypriot to reach the Final.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: It has been an awful tournament in Gstaad in terms of weather and that means players will be playing Quarter Final and Semi Final matches on Saturday. That might mean motivation is perhaps lacking in some players, but you can't use that as an excuse for the Number 1 Seed and Swiss favourite Timea Bacsinszky.
She has looked good so far in the tournament with back to back wins coming by wide margins and Bacsinszky will believe she can get the better of Johanna Larsson, a player she has beaten three previous times. That includes beating her on the clay courts earlier this season and the form displayed by Bacsinszky so far in Gstaad makes it tough to think she will be stopped in this Quarter Final.
I do respect Larsson who perhaps has underachieved a little bit considering she has a pretty decent serve for the WTA Tour. A lot of her more positive results have also come on the clay courts, but errors can be extracted from Larsson on her groundstrokes which is an area in which Bacsinszky thrives.
I expect that to make the difference in this Quarter Final and I can see the match potentially running away from Larsson once she falls behind. I will be looking for Bacsinszky to come through with a 64, 62 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 21-11, + 15.42 Units (64 Units Staked, + 24.09% Yield)
Thursday, 14 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 14th)
I feel sorry for the tournament organisers in Gstaad with the rain over there severely affecting their event to the point that First Round matches haven't been completed going into Thursday. The schedule begins very early on Thursday to try and get through all of the remaining First Round matches as well as the whole Second Round, but the weather doesn't seem to want to 'play ball' with the organisers and it could be another frustrating day for the spectators.
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
Wednesday, 13 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 13th)
The rain has heavily affected the event in Gstaad, but the other tournaments are on track going into Wednesday as the Second Round matches begin.
So far it has been a decent, if unspectacular start to the week and I am hoping to push on in the next few days.
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: Twice already in 2016 Pablo Cuevas gotten the better of Thiago Monteiro on the clay courts, although both of those matches were played during the South American Golden Swing. The layers haven't seen anything to change the pricing on Cuevas to win this one too and I think he can do slightly better than in the first two meetings and win this one with a little more ease on the scoreboard.
Monteiro has come through the Qualifiers which would have given him plenty of confidence, especially as he backed it up with a win in the First Round. Pablo Cuevas was also very impressive in seeing off home favourite Florian Mayer and he will be tough to beat if he is serving well.
In his two wins over Monteiro earlier this season, Cuevas only lost 21% of the points behind his serve in one match and 30% in the other which is pretty remarkable on the clay. On the other hand Cuevas started to get a hold of what Monteiro was bringing to the court and I think the Uruguayan will prove to be too strong again.
While you have to respect Monteiro for his performances at the Challenger level on the clay courts, Cuevas has won titles on the main Tour. The latter should have the edge in this one once he rediscovers the best way to attack the Monteiro serve and as long as he doesn't throw in too many sloppy service games of his own. That should help Cuevas come through with a 63, 75 win.
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: The Frenchman might lead the head to head between these players, but I think Nicolas Almagro is the better clay court player and can move into the Quarter Final at Paul-Henri Mathieu's expense.
Almagro and Mathieu are 2-2 when it comes to matches played on the clay courts, but it is Almagro who has won titles on the surface including in Estoril earlier this season. Mathieu did have some strong runs on the clay courts at this time of the season last year, but his recent form suggests it would be a surprise if we see that again.
Injuries have affected him and I feel the Frenchman will be put under enough pressure from Almagro to crack through. On the other hand the Spaniard is lacking the consistency that made him a force on the clay courts in recent years before his injury but this remains Almagro's best surface.
There have been too many times when Almagro has fallen out early in a tournament on the clay courts which is a concern when backing him in the Second Round. However I think he can have a little bit extra in the tank to come through this one with a 75, 67, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: I backed Fernando Verdasco on Tuesday and he came through with a comfortable win over Henri Laaksonen and I will be looking for him to get past his compatriot Albert Montanes with a similar scoreline in the books.
It is Verdasco who has won all four previous matches against Montanes and you would have to say that all of those wins have come relatively easily. However, the last of those came back in 2010 and both players are much changed since then.
Now Montanes is a veteran who struggles against some of the better players on the Tour even on his favourite surface. His serve remains a vulnerable shot and someone like Verdasco has enough power in his groundstrokes to bully his compatriot around the court.
There have been some solid runs from Montanes who is comfortable on the clay courts, but it has become more and more a situation where the better players should have too much for him. It is true that Verdasco has lost his own consistency from day to day, but I do believe he will have enough chances to break the Montanes serve and I think Verdasco will come through 64, 63.
Frank Dancevic + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: He is a veteran these days and his body has a tendency to let him down, but I still think Frank Dancevic can make use of the games being given to him in this Second Round match. While Ivo Karlovic is playing his first match in the tournament, Dancevic has already won three matches in Newport and has the big serve which makes him a threat on the grass.
That should especially be the case when he faces someone who returns as limited as Karlovic does and Dancevic will also hold onto some belief having beaten Karlovic on the grass of Wimbledon just two years ago. That win came in straight sets and Dancevic will believe he can force tie-breakers at the very least in this one which makes this number of games appealing.
It has been a difficult year for Karlovic, who did reach the Final in Newport in 2015, but injuries look to have knocked some confidence. His serve will make Karlovic a threat on the faster surfaces, but if he has lost half a step getting to the net it means the returns can be bunted back into awkward positions from which he is being asked to make his volleys.
Now I am not saying Dancevic is the best returner, but he dealt with the huge Sam Groth serve effectively in a decent run on the grass of Nottingham and I wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian wins this one outright. However, I will take the games because it could easily be decided on two tie-breakers which may go Karlovic's way.
Steve Johnson - 4.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: The grass court campaign has been a strong one for Steve Johnson who made the second week of Wimbledon just days after taking the Nottingham title home. That has seen the American move into a career high 25 in the World Rankings and he will be looking to be one of the Seeds at the US Open in the next few weeks.
Johnson is the Number 1 Seed in the final grass court tournament of the season in Newport and he should be looking to perhaps pick up a second title in the space of a month. There are some big names in the draw at this level, Gilles Muller a big threat in his section, but Steve Johnson has played well enough to think he should have the ability to win the title.
He faces Yuichi Sugita in the Second Round in Newport, a player who has had some mixed results on the grass over the last month. Sugita had an impressive win over Taylor Fritz, but was also beaten by Marcus Willis of Great Britain and Andreas Seppi lost just three games to him in Halle.
On Sugita's two previous visits to Newport, he has been beaten by the same 63, 64 scoreline in the Second Round including last season to Rajeev Ram. You have to think the heavier weight of shot will come from Johnson in this one and that should pressure Sugita as long as the American maintains the momentum he has built up in tournaments in Queens, Nottingham and Wimbledon.
A good serving day should keep the scoreboard pressure on Sugita at least and I think Johnson can come through with a 63, 64 win in this one.
Donald Young - 2.5 games v Stefan Kozlov: The potential that was seen in Donald Young has never really materialised on the main Tour, although he is coming into this one as the Number 8 Seed. Consistency has been a big problem for Young to achieve, but he had a couple of really good wins on the grass courts and looked impressive in dismissing Jared Donaldson in the First Round.
He now takes on another young American in Stefan Kozlov who has won his first main Tour matches over the last month. Kozlov destroyed Benjamin Becker in the First Round and reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch where he did beat Steve Johnson before finding Sam Querrey too good.
At 18 years old there will be some inconsistent results for Kozlov though and Young has to know the best way to exploit a young American with plenty of potential through his own experiences of dealing with that spot.
It might take three sets to see Young exploit that experience, but I think he has a decent chance of covering this number even if this does need a final set decider. The grass hasn't always been Young's favourite surface and he has a chance to play in his first Quarter Final on the surface if he wins this one, but I think he can do that behind a 64, 46, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Frank Dancevic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donald Young - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.10 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)
So far it has been a decent, if unspectacular start to the week and I am hoping to push on in the next few days.
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: Twice already in 2016 Pablo Cuevas gotten the better of Thiago Monteiro on the clay courts, although both of those matches were played during the South American Golden Swing. The layers haven't seen anything to change the pricing on Cuevas to win this one too and I think he can do slightly better than in the first two meetings and win this one with a little more ease on the scoreboard.
Monteiro has come through the Qualifiers which would have given him plenty of confidence, especially as he backed it up with a win in the First Round. Pablo Cuevas was also very impressive in seeing off home favourite Florian Mayer and he will be tough to beat if he is serving well.
In his two wins over Monteiro earlier this season, Cuevas only lost 21% of the points behind his serve in one match and 30% in the other which is pretty remarkable on the clay. On the other hand Cuevas started to get a hold of what Monteiro was bringing to the court and I think the Uruguayan will prove to be too strong again.
While you have to respect Monteiro for his performances at the Challenger level on the clay courts, Cuevas has won titles on the main Tour. The latter should have the edge in this one once he rediscovers the best way to attack the Monteiro serve and as long as he doesn't throw in too many sloppy service games of his own. That should help Cuevas come through with a 63, 75 win.
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: The Frenchman might lead the head to head between these players, but I think Nicolas Almagro is the better clay court player and can move into the Quarter Final at Paul-Henri Mathieu's expense.
Almagro and Mathieu are 2-2 when it comes to matches played on the clay courts, but it is Almagro who has won titles on the surface including in Estoril earlier this season. Mathieu did have some strong runs on the clay courts at this time of the season last year, but his recent form suggests it would be a surprise if we see that again.
Injuries have affected him and I feel the Frenchman will be put under enough pressure from Almagro to crack through. On the other hand the Spaniard is lacking the consistency that made him a force on the clay courts in recent years before his injury but this remains Almagro's best surface.
There have been too many times when Almagro has fallen out early in a tournament on the clay courts which is a concern when backing him in the Second Round. However I think he can have a little bit extra in the tank to come through this one with a 75, 67, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: I backed Fernando Verdasco on Tuesday and he came through with a comfortable win over Henri Laaksonen and I will be looking for him to get past his compatriot Albert Montanes with a similar scoreline in the books.
It is Verdasco who has won all four previous matches against Montanes and you would have to say that all of those wins have come relatively easily. However, the last of those came back in 2010 and both players are much changed since then.
Now Montanes is a veteran who struggles against some of the better players on the Tour even on his favourite surface. His serve remains a vulnerable shot and someone like Verdasco has enough power in his groundstrokes to bully his compatriot around the court.
There have been some solid runs from Montanes who is comfortable on the clay courts, but it has become more and more a situation where the better players should have too much for him. It is true that Verdasco has lost his own consistency from day to day, but I do believe he will have enough chances to break the Montanes serve and I think Verdasco will come through 64, 63.
Frank Dancevic + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: He is a veteran these days and his body has a tendency to let him down, but I still think Frank Dancevic can make use of the games being given to him in this Second Round match. While Ivo Karlovic is playing his first match in the tournament, Dancevic has already won three matches in Newport and has the big serve which makes him a threat on the grass.
That should especially be the case when he faces someone who returns as limited as Karlovic does and Dancevic will also hold onto some belief having beaten Karlovic on the grass of Wimbledon just two years ago. That win came in straight sets and Dancevic will believe he can force tie-breakers at the very least in this one which makes this number of games appealing.
It has been a difficult year for Karlovic, who did reach the Final in Newport in 2015, but injuries look to have knocked some confidence. His serve will make Karlovic a threat on the faster surfaces, but if he has lost half a step getting to the net it means the returns can be bunted back into awkward positions from which he is being asked to make his volleys.
Now I am not saying Dancevic is the best returner, but he dealt with the huge Sam Groth serve effectively in a decent run on the grass of Nottingham and I wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian wins this one outright. However, I will take the games because it could easily be decided on two tie-breakers which may go Karlovic's way.
Steve Johnson - 4.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: The grass court campaign has been a strong one for Steve Johnson who made the second week of Wimbledon just days after taking the Nottingham title home. That has seen the American move into a career high 25 in the World Rankings and he will be looking to be one of the Seeds at the US Open in the next few weeks.
Johnson is the Number 1 Seed in the final grass court tournament of the season in Newport and he should be looking to perhaps pick up a second title in the space of a month. There are some big names in the draw at this level, Gilles Muller a big threat in his section, but Steve Johnson has played well enough to think he should have the ability to win the title.
He faces Yuichi Sugita in the Second Round in Newport, a player who has had some mixed results on the grass over the last month. Sugita had an impressive win over Taylor Fritz, but was also beaten by Marcus Willis of Great Britain and Andreas Seppi lost just three games to him in Halle.
On Sugita's two previous visits to Newport, he has been beaten by the same 63, 64 scoreline in the Second Round including last season to Rajeev Ram. You have to think the heavier weight of shot will come from Johnson in this one and that should pressure Sugita as long as the American maintains the momentum he has built up in tournaments in Queens, Nottingham and Wimbledon.
A good serving day should keep the scoreboard pressure on Sugita at least and I think Johnson can come through with a 63, 64 win in this one.
Donald Young - 2.5 games v Stefan Kozlov: The potential that was seen in Donald Young has never really materialised on the main Tour, although he is coming into this one as the Number 8 Seed. Consistency has been a big problem for Young to achieve, but he had a couple of really good wins on the grass courts and looked impressive in dismissing Jared Donaldson in the First Round.
He now takes on another young American in Stefan Kozlov who has won his first main Tour matches over the last month. Kozlov destroyed Benjamin Becker in the First Round and reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch where he did beat Steve Johnson before finding Sam Querrey too good.
At 18 years old there will be some inconsistent results for Kozlov though and Young has to know the best way to exploit a young American with plenty of potential through his own experiences of dealing with that spot.
It might take three sets to see Young exploit that experience, but I think he has a decent chance of covering this number even if this does need a final set decider. The grass hasn't always been Young's favourite surface and he has a chance to play in his first Quarter Final on the surface if he wins this one, but I think he can do that behind a 64, 46, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Frank Dancevic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donald Young - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.10 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)
Tuesday, 12 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 12th)
The Andy Murray story dominated the headlines on Monday in the United Kingdom, which really isn't a big surprise, but the five tennis tournaments being played this week all got underway on that day.
For Soderlund, the future is heading to American Colleges to take on some of the better players of his age later in the year. He had a strong run to the Semi Final in the Bastad Challenger last week during which he beat a solid veteran like Daniel Gimeno Traver and Soderlund has won a clay title at the Futures level.
The First Round matches were played alongside some Qualifiers on Monday, but on Tuesday the rest of that Round will be completed which means there are plenty of matches being scheduled throughout the various tournaments.
On Monday the two picks made both came in as winners, but there are likely to be plenty of matches to get through to earn a winning record for the week including the Davis Cup ties that will begin on Friday to make this a loaded week. Next week will be even busier with seven different tournaments being played which will likely mean Wimbledon is quickly left in the rear view mirror.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: The tournament in Bastad had been dominated by Spanish players between 2005 and 2012 with six of eight winners coming from that nation. 2012 was the last time a Spanish player won the title here and Fernando Verdasco will be hoping to change that trend although he is not the player of yesteryear.
Verdasco hasn't won the title here before and has dropped to Number 59 in the World Rankings but he did win the title in Bucharest and this isn't the most intimidating of fields. However it does have to be said that Verdasco is much more likely to throw in a stinker these days and he will have to have one of those days if Henri Laaksonen wants to record what could be the best win of his career.
He played in the Challenger event in Bastad last week so might be more familiar with the conditions, although Laaksonen has had some disappointing losses in recent weeks. Laaksonen played well in a Davis Cup defeat to Andreas Seppi on the clay courts, but he will be under pressure by the weight of shot that Verdasco has, although the latter has to control the unforced errors which bring opponents back into matches.
If Verdasco is able to control those errors, I think a good serving day will give him every chance to progress to the Second Round with a 64, 63 win.
Carl Soderlund - 4.5 games v Fred Simonsson: Two young Swedish players at their current high in World Rankings will get to meet on the main court in Bastad in their First Round encounter. Carl Soderlund is the younger of the two and is lower Ranked, but Fred Simonsson has had a little more experience at a higher level which has made that difference in their World Rankings.
This will actually be the third time Soderlund and Simonsson will be playing one another over the last few months with the younger player having won the last two matches. Both of those have come in straight sets and I think he might have the mental edge at a time when these players are trying to move up into the pro Tour.
For Soderlund, the future is heading to American Colleges to take on some of the better players of his age later in the year. He had a strong run to the Semi Final in the Bastad Challenger last week during which he beat a solid veteran like Daniel Gimeno Traver and Soderlund has won a clay title at the Futures level.
At 21 years old, Fred Simonsson has at least tried to qualify for a couple of main Tour events, although he has yet to be successful doing that.
This time they have both earned a Wild Card into the Bastad main draw and I do think Soderlund has the mental edge which can be vital in this First Round encounter. It is a big number of games for Soderlund to cover, but I think he can do that at odds against and win this one 63, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The home favourite and Number 1 Seeded Timea Bacsinszky begins her tournament in Gstaad on Tuesday and she is taking on a young Qualifier from Spain. Sara Sorribes Tormo has only dropped seven games in the Qualifiers, but this is a big step up for the youngster against an opponent like Bacsinszky who has reached the French Open Semi Final just last year.
She was a Quarter Finalist at the French Open this year and has won a title on the clay in 2016, while Bacsinszky is one of the tougher defensive players which can be tough for a younger, inexperienced player to deal with.
Sorribes Tormo has won a title on the clay at the lesser level, but her last two experiences at this kind of level have been tough to take. Both Sam Stosur and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova beat the Spaniard comfortably at the Madrid Masters and the French Open and someone like Bacsinszky is arguably better than both of those players on the clay.
This might be closer than those matches ended up being, but the home support and looking to do well here gives Bacsinszky the clear motivation edge. As well as Sorribes Tormo has played in the Qualifiers, this is a huge step up in class and I think Bacsinszky will wear her down in a 64, 62 win.
Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Jana Cepelova: Wimbledon proved to be a very good tournament for Jana Cepelova who stunned Garbine Muguruza on her way through to the Third Round. That came after coming through Qualifiers and Cepelova is a better player on the clay courts than she is on the grass.
However she is up against a player in Julia Goerges who is a very able performer on the clay and who can perhaps blame extremely tough draws which has prevented her getting some wins under her belt over the last six weeks. She did reach the Semi Final in Nuremberg earlier this season, but generally it hasn't been a great season for the German although the performances in recent defeats were encouraging.
The big keys for Goerges is to make sure she serves well and puts a lid on her unforced errors. Of course that is one of the reasons Goerges has struggled to find the consistency in her game as she can see games race away through a number of errors, but I expect the German to have some success attacking the Cepelova serve.
Attacking the serve has paid dividends for Goerges in their two previous matches and she has won plenty of points against the serve. I think she is the better player in this one and I will back Goerges to snap her three match losing run with a 75, 64 win in this one.
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v John-Patrick Smith: For Jordan Thompson and John-Patrick Smith, tournaments like this can provide valuable World Ranking points to improve their positioning. Thompson is now inside the top 100, but Smith is closer to falling out of the top 200 and both players will be desperate to win this match.
It was Thompson who came through when these players met in a Challenger event on the grass in Surbiton, although that was a close three setter. Neither player actually had a strong showing on the grass this past month, although Smith did reach the Semi Final here in Newport in 2015.
That might give him a slight edge in the match as Thompson is playing here for the first time, but Smith's confidence might not be as strong as it was coming in last season. Smith had won some matches before Newport, but he has not been able to repeat that in 2016 and I think Thompson will be able to frank his victory over Smith from Surbiton.
Thompson had more joy out of his serve once he got his rhythm after being blown away in the first set. He should be more comfortable with what Smith is going to give him this time around and I like Thompson to win this one 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carl Soderlund - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.28 Units (4 Units Staked, + 82% Yield)
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