Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (April 8th)

The Tennis Picks have been in fine form this week with all eight picks made over the last seven days coming back as winners.

Friday was the key with five Picks from the Davis Cup ties and the Quarter Final matches at the WTA Charleston event all returning as winners and I am looking for a strong Sunday to wrap up this week.

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties are completed on Sunday and it has been a busy day for me which means I will simply put my picks down below. Hopefully it can be a strong end to the week to put some good looking numbers down to add to the season totals.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-0, + 14.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 90.38% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (April 6th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties will make headlines of their own, but most fans will be keeping a close eye on Rafael Nadal who makes his return since pulling out of the Australian Open Quarter Final match against Marin Cilic.

Nadal is playing the second rubber of the Spanish tie against Germany in Valencia, but his team have made it clear that the current World Number 1 is not at full health as he looks to defend plenty of points over the next couple of months in the lead up and during the French Open.


The four Davis Cup ties have provided some options for the Tennis Picks which have made a good start to the week from the WTA Charleston event. Any Picks from the United States vs Belgium tie and from the two WTA events will be added to this thread on Friday, but the Picks below are from the Spain vs Germany and Italy vs France Quarter Final ties which begin early on Friday morning.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The big question for Alexander Zverev is how he has managed to handle himself emotionally having lost the Miami Masters Final to John Isner a few days ago. He hasn't got a lot of time to prepare for the move from the hard courts onto the clay courts, while Zverev will be playing against another crowd supporting his opponent as he looks to give Germany a strong start in the Davis Cup tie against Spain.

A few years ago the prospect of facing David Ferrer would have been a scary one for any player, especially on the clay courts where the movement and defensive skills Ferrer possesses made him a tough opponent to beat.

However Zverev has already beaten Ferrer twice on the hard courts in 2018 to give himself a mental boost for this match, while I also have to say that the Spanish veteran is simply not as strong as he once was.

Ferrer's numbers against top 50 opponents on the clay courts over the last couple of years have deteriorated badly from his peak and I think that is an issue when facing Zverev. You can't ignore how well Zverev is able to play on the clay courts as he showed when winning the Rome Masters last year and his stronger service numbers and solid return numbers give him the edge in this first rubber.

I do think Ferrer will have his moments and he could even take a set, but I would expect Zverev to settle into the match and begin to take control of proceedings. He can produce some big time tennis on this surface and I would expect the stronger serving and very effective returning can help him get past Ferrer and cover the number of games being asked of him.

Coming off the hard courts onto the clay courts shouldn't be a big problem for Zverev, and he has had a few days to get himself physically ready for this match. I am looking for him to just be a little too good for Ferrer and give Germany the perfect start to this Quarter Final tie.


Lucas Pouille - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: On first glance I have to say this does look a big number of games for Lucas Pouille to cover, but the clay courts have been a surface on which he has been able to produce better returning numbers than on other surfaces.

He had a decent time on the clay in 2017 and Pouille certainly has some decent numbers on the surface which makes him someone to respect. The serve has continued to be a strong weapon for the Frenchman, but he has found his feet when it comes to the return on this surface and I think that is key against Andreas Seppi who has seen his own numbers declining on the clay over the last couple of years.

One of the bigger issues for Seppi is when he has come up against players Ranked in the top 50 when he really has seen a sharp downward trend on both his serving and returning numbers.

The home crowd can at least get behind Seppi and give him a boost in this one, but I do think the majority of the play will be on Pouille's side of the court and he will be the player creating the majority of break point chances.

Pouille can be a hard player to back because he does tend to struggle to retrieve breaks and that can lead to silly dropped sets, but I think he is the better player in this one. It will take Seppi turning back the clock to earn the upset and I will back Pouille to create the break points to win and cover the handicap.


Fabio Fognini - 6.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: I might need my head testing in picking two players who can be very, very erratic when the mood strikes them, but I am going to back Fabio Fognini to cover a big number against Jeremy Chardy in the second rubber of the tie between Italy and France.

With the home support behind him, Fognini will certainly feel he has the edge on the clay courts over Chardy even if the latter has been able to snap his run of losses to Fognini by beating him on the hard courts in North America over the last month.

Chardy has a very good serve when he is feeling at his best and it is a weapon that can give Fognini some problems even on the clay courts. The Frenchman has been able to maintain strong hold numbers on the clay courts but his bigger issue is trying to out-rally players on this surface for long enough to earn the break point chances.

The serve will be tested by Fognini who has a decent return and has produced some of his best tennis in Davis Cup. Not many would have forgotten the way he dismantled Andy Murray in Italy on the clay courts before and I do think this is the kind of situation in which Fognini does seem to bring his very best to the court.

Over the course of a best of five set match I do think Fognini will be able to break down the Chardy game and I think that will give him every chance of covering this number. Fognini has maintained some strong numbers on the clay courts over the last few years and I think he can continue the fine form he has shown on this surface already in 2018.

I think Chardy's returning issues could be a real factor in helping Fognini in covering the number in this second rubber and I will back the Italian to do that.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The WTA Charleston event has reached the Quarter Final stage which means all of the players in this tournament have shown decent enough form.

It may be a surprising run for Madison Keys who has not produced her best tennis on the clay courts in the last couple of years, although she has played a Charleston Final before in her career.

Keys is very much a confidence player who has to see the serve working to the usual standards to make sure the rest of her game is up to scratch. That has been the case so far this week and I do think she will be able to put Bernarda Pera under pressure as a player who is still getting accustomed to this level of tennis.

Pera has shown she has plenty of quality in her own tennis and playing left-handed can be a problem for opponents to solve. She has some decent wins this week too which will have given her confidence, but I have to believe Keys is familiar with what Pera wants to do on the court and I expect the bigger hitting from the higher Ranked American to prove to be a difference maker on the day.

As long as Keys maintains her focus behind serve, I expect her to come through this match and cover these games by earning a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Alize Cornet: Alize Cornet won her grudge match against Caroline Garcia on Thursday, but she is going to have maintain some heady standards if she is going to beat Kiki Bertens.

So far this week Cornet has been in fantastic form which has to be respected, but the numbers are far superior to the usual kind of levels the Frenchwoman finds on the clay courts.

Confidence is high so nothing suggests she will be dropping backwards, but Kiki Bertens presents a very difficult challenge for any opponent on the clay courts.

Bertens might not be playing at the same level that Cornet has produced this week, but her numbers are much more in line with those she has produced on the clay courts in the last two seasons. It does suggest Bertens can maintain these levels for longer than Cornet and I do think her serve is a big weapon for her in this match.

That serve can set up a few cheaper points for Bertens and I think she will be able to put Cornet under pressure in the match when it comes to protecting her own serve. The head to head may lean towards Cornet, but I think Bertens is one of the better clay court players out there and I am expecting her to have some strong runs over the next couple of months on this surface.

The superiority on the clay courts should show up in this match and I will back Bertens to come through and cover the number in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 85.33% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (February 2nd)

There has only been a couple of tournaments scheduled this week and I have been keeping an eye on both the WTA Taipei City and WTA St Petersburg events being played.

However there hasn't really been any matches to have interested me enough to make picks since Monday and that is mainly down to the some of the uncertainty that comes in the week after a Grand Slam event.

To be honest I think the layers have been right on the money when it comes to their margins in the matches so far this week and when you think that then the obvious choice is to wait for better options.

Those may have been provided by the Davis Cup World Group ties that begin on Friday with a number of matches scheduled at the various host venues. With the Sunday Singles matches not set until Saturday night, I find those markets are a little tougher to make picks from as layers don't really get their prices out until very close to the time the matches are scheduled to begin so the majority of my Davis Cup picks tend to come from the first day of the three day ties.

Of course the two WTA events being played reach the business end of their events which may provide opportunities, but I will cross that bridge when I come to it. If there are no options, then I will wait until Monday and the beginning of three ATP events.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: One of the ties of the First Round of the Davis Cup is between Germany and Australia who are both led by one player who is considered to be amongst the best of the next generation of men's tennis.

Both Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are going to carry the hopes of their nation in the Singles Rubbers and you have to think the one who can win their two matches can set up their nation for the upset.

That could be a critical match on Sunday, but Zverev would do well to make sure he is not overlooking the threat that Alex De Minaur could pose in this opening Singles match.

It says plenty about how well De Minaur has played in the Australian summer leading into the Australian Open that he has been asked to open the tie for the home team. De Minaur is actually the fourth highest Ranked Australian in the team this week, but he had been in fine form in Brisbane and Sydney although the mental test will be how much he has forgotten the humbling handed out by Tomas Berdych in the First Round.

Zverev also had a disappointing end to his Australian Open, and he is just 1-4 in Davis Cup matches for Germany which has to be playing on the mind. The manner of the defeat to Hyeon Chung will have upset the young German hope, but I think he can bounce back here with the strong performances he has produced on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

If he is not at the top of his game, De Minaur will cause problems and the home support is going to inspire the Australian in this one. I do worry about Zverev in the pressurised spots of representing his nation and Grand Slam matches where he has yet to really make the impact his potential suggests he should, but I think it is a matter of time he turns that around.

The bigger game should come out of Zverev's racquet in this opening Davis Cup match and I will look for him to work through to a pretty comfortable win in three or four sets.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 8.5 games v Liam Broady: The second Kyle Edmund decided he was not able to risk the hip and play on the opening day of this Davis Cup tie for Great Britain meant this team were huge underdogs to beat Spain. In all honesty they were underdogs anyway playing away from home and on the clay courts and I think Britain will do well to make this a competitive tie.

First up is Liam Broady making his Davis Cup debut and who has a best ever World Ranking of 158. He comes in as the 165 and with limited clay court experience over the last few years which all adds up to a big challenge against someone as comfortable on the surface as Albert Ramos-Vinolas is.

Even the lefty play from Broady is not a huge factor as he is playing another southpaw and I am really not sure how competitive the British player can keep this.

The Ramos-Vinolas serve can be vulnerable which will likely mean a couple of the sets are closely fought, but I think the Spaniard is also going to be able to pull away in one set which can give him a chance to cover a huge amount of games. It also has to be said that Broady has been doing a lot more winning than Ramos-Vinolas to open 2018, but that is coming at a lower level and ultimately that will make a difference in this match too.

Over the last couple of years Ramos-Vinolas has really improved as a clay court player on the main Tour and I expect that experience to play a part here. He is more comfortable on this surface and I think the Spaniard wears down his opponent and produces what looks a straight-forward win on paper.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 8.5 games v Cameron Norrie: The second Rubber in this Davis Cup tie between Spain and Great Britain has a similar feeling as the first. The Spanish team send an experienced top 30 Ranked player against a British player who is not inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and who has played very little clay court tennis over the last few years.

The Spanish team are confident enough that they have left their top 10 Ranked Singles player Pablo Carreno Busta out of the Singles Rubbers. That may be a surprise but Roberto Bautista Agut and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are very capable on this surface and I would expect the former to win his match with the same relative comfort as the latter.

You have to accept that Bautista Agut's serve can sometimes be vulnerable which makes this a big number of games to cover, but the consistency should put Cameron Norrie under pressure. The Norrie lefty serve can be a big weapon for him, but any time the rally gets beyond four shots you would shift the edge to Bautista Agut significantly.

Ultimately Bautista Agut is going to get enough balls back in play to use his defensive skills to wear down Norrie and extract mistakes from his game. That is going to be important to break down the Brit's game both mentally and physically and I am expecting a few breaks of serve to come out of it as the match begins to get away from Norrie.

The clay courts may not be the best surface for Bautista Agut, but he has reached the Fourth Round at the French Open in back to back years. That experience is enough to suggest he will begin to wear down Norrie once he has a feeling for the serve and how it is coming his way and I like Bautista Agut to also cover a big number in this Davis Cup tie.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Robin Haase: The French Davis Cup team have been able to call upon plenty of top players in recent years with a depth to their squad that has to be admired as most of the big names wish to compete for them. That led to a Davis Cup win in 2017 and France may still be the team to beat in 2018.

The second Rubber in this First Round tie against the Netherlands sees Richard Gasquet playing the Number 1 Dutch player Robin Haase. This is a match up Gasquet has enjoyed over the years with six wins from seven former matches against each other including the last four in a row.

Three wins came in 2017 and Gasquet played pretty well at the Australian Open to suggest he will be ready to compete at a high level in this one.

However he has to respect Robin Haase who had a couple of good runs in Chennai and Auckland before a disappointing First Round exit in Melbourne. The wins Haase had came against players that are not of the same level as Gasquet and I think this is a big mental test for him with the crowd very much against him and playing an opponent who has dominated him for the most part.

If he is serving well then he can give Gasquet something to think about, but you have to think the Frenchman will still find a way to get this done in three or four sets. Gasquet has something of a mixed record for France in Davis Cup Singles Rubbers, but I think this is a match in which he will feel comfortable and believe he can wear down Haase over a couple of hours.

Gasquet has tended to win his sets against Haase with some ease when he does get into a groove and I think that helps him cover this handicap.


Dusan Lajovic-John Isner over 41.5 games: The final Davis Cup pick from the opening day of the World Group ties comes from the Serbian-USA First Round second Singles Rubber.

Dusan Lajovic and John Isner both feel pretty happy on the clay courts, which may be a surprise when you think of the way Isner approaches his game. However Isner has admitted he prefers having a little more time on the return and groundstrokes and this is a player who has a win over Roger Federer in a Davis Cup tie on the surface while also leading Rafael Nadal 2-0 at the French Open.

Isner is not the player he was in those days, but he has the tools to put Lajovic under pressure in this one and is the right favourite. However home support and a decent clay court pedigree that Lajovic possesses should make this a close match and I would be surprised if we don't need to see four sets to decide the outcome of this one.

I can't rule out a decider either between two players who have met four times on the Tour and tended to be involved in very close matches. All but one of those four matches have needed a deciding set to find a winner, while the total number of games have been 23, 36, 35, 36 in those four matches and that is in best of three set situations with a tiebreaker in the final set.

I just can't see this match going down easily either way and with a couple of tiebreakers likely to play an important part, seeing the number of games surpassed looks the right play in this one.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-John Isner Over 41.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2017 (February 3rd)

The Davis Cup First Round World Group ties begin on Friday and there are a couple of ties being played in Australian and Japan that will take place during the night. The Davis Cup covers the world so it is a long day of tennis when you think during the majority of the day in the United Kingdom we will have matches being played around Europe before we will then see the attention shifted to North and South America where Argentina, Canada and the United States will all be hosting ties.

Add to that we have reached the Quarter Finals of the tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and this is a busy Friday of tennis to match the intensity of the Grand Slam events in the middle of those events.

I will be adding picks from some of the later Davis Cup ties first thing in the morning as long as the markets are appealing as they potentially could be. I have some numbers I like but it will depend if those are matched as to whether I will go on and make those picks or not.


Sam Stosur + 2.5 games v Shuai Peng: The Sam Stosur serve is not working as well as it once did and that has a big affect on the rest of her game and may have been a contributing factor to her run of losses prior to this tournament. There have been some really disappointing losses since the middle of the 2016 season, but Stosur should have gained some confidence from her two wins in Taipei City including one in the Second Round which was decided in the final set.

That should toughen up the Australian, but she has to find more success behind the first serve whether that is by using serve-volley tactics or even going into the net after the first big forehand she is able to hit. Stosur should definitely have a chance to attack the Shuai Peng serve in this one, although Peng has been winning a lot more matches than Stosur which should give her the belief that it is her time to beat this opponent.

All six previous matches have been won by Stosur but they haven't played one another since 2013 so Peng should believe she is facing the Australian at the right time. However that head to head will also play a part in this one and may allow Stosur to keep the match competitive and perhaps force a final set decider again.

I actually thought Stosur would go into this match as the narrow favourite so being able to get some games behind me to back the higher Ranked player is hard to ignore. The next few months are important for Stosur's World Ranking as she has a lot of points to defend at the French Open, but I still think she is capable in a match like this one and I will take the games on offer.


Roberta Vinci v Kristina Mladenovic: I am a little disappointed with myself that I picked Venus Williams to beat Kristina Mladenovic in the Second Round because I wasn't sure of her health. It turned out that Venus didn't have much in the tank and the veteran can now have a well earned rest after the busy last couple of weeks, but Mladenovic moves through to the Quarter Final.

A lot of what I said about Mladenovic yesterday still applies and I think a more confident player would have been able to beat Venus Williams without dropping any games if I am being perfectly honest. The Frenchwoman allowed Williams back into the first set and she is going to have to be better when she plays Roberta Vinci.

The Italian is the defending Champion here and she has had a couple of solid wins behind her already. Vinci is capable of blunting the big power that Mladenovic plays with and she will use variation to perhaps extract more errors than her opponent will be able to get away with.

Their sole previous match came on the hard courts at the US Open in 2015 and it was Vinci who came through in a tight three set match as the slight underdog. Vinci is clearly happy in the conditions in St Petersburg and I think she can once again come up trumps against Mladenovic but this time as the favourite.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: This is the first time Svetlana Kuznetsova is playing in St Petersburg and the home fans are going to be fully behind her to come through and win the tournament in her home nation. Her performance in the Second Round showed a player who is very comfortable on the clay courts and I think she will get the better of Yulia Putintseva in this Quarter Final.

As much as I should be giving credit to Putintseva, I also think it should be noted that she has been the beneficiary of a favourable draw which has helped her reach this Quarter Final. This has been the best run she has been able to manage so far in 2017 and all of her three defeats in January came in one-sided fashion which would not have seen her cover this number.

For the most part in 2016, Putintseva proved to be a very competitive player that could give the biggest names on the Tour some trouble. She has plenty of energy around the court and there is some power to her game which may give Kuznetsova something to think about in this one. However I do think Kuznetsova is going to have plenty of success in the return game against a vulnerable serve and I do think there will be a few chances to break serve through this match.

I think this match will have a similar feel to Kuznetsova's match with Daria Gavrilova in the Second Round with plenty of games being tight and decided by a couple of points here and there. There should be chances for both players to break serve, but I think Kuznetsova is going to be able to get out of a few more jams with her superior serve and that can help her overcome this challenge with a 7-5, 6-2 win.


Richard Gasquet - 7.5 games v Taro Daniel: France go into their Davis Cup tie as big favourites against a Japan team missing Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet can get them off to a very good start. He played well in Australia before running into Grigor Dimitrov and Gasquet has performed well for France when he has been called upon by France to play a Singles rubber for them.

He shouldn't underestimate Taro Daniel who reached the Final at a Challenger event in Hawaii last week, although Daniel was beaten very comfortably in two sets when trying to Qualify for the main draw at the Australian Open. That defeat came to the veteran Jurgen Melzer and I think Daniel will have some issues trying to match the level that Gasquet can bring with the majority of his successes coming at the Challenger level.

Daniel hasn't played that well on the hard courts and although he has performed well for Japan in the Davis Cup, the majority of recent matches have come against players who are not as good as Gasquet. He will have the support of the home crowd which should give Daniel plenty of motivation and confidence to bring his best tennis to the court, but at the end of the day it is a one on one contest and Gasquet will be used to playing in front of big crowds that may or may not be supporting his cause.

Winning matches on the indoor hard courts has been something Gasquet has been able to do in the last few seasons and I think he is going to be too good on the day. It is a big number being asked for Gasquet to cover, but I think he will break down Daniel with a 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 win.


Gilles Simon - 6.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: I will admit that it can be hard to trust Gilles Simon at times because he is someone who has to fight for every point he earns but is simply not quite up to the level of other players on the Tour who play that style when it comes to the movement around the court.

The bigger issue might be the defensive mindset that he uses unlike players like David Ferrer who are looking to be aggressive as well as make as many balls as possible and wear down opponents. Being less aggressive means Simon gives his opponent the chance to dictate points and that is what Yoshihito Nishioka has to try and do in this one.

The young Japanese player has produced some solid results on the Challenger Tour, but he is yet to really get it going on the main Tour. His defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut at the Australian Open shows there is some way to go for Nishioka and Gilles Simon has the same kind of game that will extract plenty of errors from his opponent.

Nishioka has to use the lefty serve to try and get himself into a strong position in the rallies, but I expect Simon will be able to get enough balls back in play in awkward positions to wear down his opponent. It should be noted that Simon does not have the greatest record in live Singles rubbers, but when he does win these matches he seems to do so with some comfort on the scoreboard and that may be the case here too.

It could put France in a commanding position on Day 1 of this First Round tie and I like Simon to find a way to win this one 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.


Guido Pella-Paolo Lorenzi over 39.5 total games: The Argentina vs Italy Davis Cup tie looks to be finely balanced as the defending Champions are missing key figures that helped them win the Davis Cup last season. Playing on clay against an Italian side who have their full complement of players and who are very much suited on the surface makes this the most difficult tie to call in the First Round in my opinion.

The opening Rubber is between Guido Pella and Paolo Lorenzi and the layers are having a difficult time separating them. The form of Lorenzi is certainly better going into the match and he does have a strong 4-1 record in Singles ties for Italy although the last two live Rubbers have gone to five sets.

There is every chance that Pella and Lorenzi will combine for a long match in this one too as both are comfortable on the clay and there should be plenty of break point opportunities both ways. Pella played an important role in the Davis Cup success last season even if he did not play in the Final and he too has a winning record playing for Argentina in Singles ties in this competition.

It does make for a fascinating opening Rubber and I think it will be one that surpasses the total number of games being asked.


Fabio Fognini - 5.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I really don't know which way the first Rubber will go in this Davis Cup tie but I have a feeling it is more important to Argentina than Italy who should win the second Rubber. It has to be said that Fabio Fognini can be a hard player to trust on the Tour because you simply don't know which player is going to turn up on any given day, but he has been strong for the Italian Davis Cup team.

Fognini now has a 17-7 record in Singles Rubbers for Italy and that record becomes 13-2 on the clay courts which is his favoured surface. Playing away from home is something that should motivate Fognini who can thrive in these big match atmospheres and I think Carlos Berlocq may not be at 100% for the tie.

He is an awkward and irritating opponent at times who seems to get under the skin of the player he faces on the other side of the court and I do worry that Fognini will bite against the antics Berlocq can bring to the court. However Fognini has experienced playing Berlocq in Argentina in the Davis Cup before and won that match in four sets in 2014, although he was beaten 6-3, 6-0 when playing this opponent in Buenos Aires in 2015.

That might have been a healthier Berlocq though and I think that is a big factor in this match. As much as Fognini might not have been in great form during the opening month of the 2017 season, he does love the Davis Cup role he plays for Italy and I have him winning this match 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 as he wears down Berlocq over two and a half hours.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 7.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guido Pella-Paolo Lorenzi Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.28 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 17th)

Another week on the Tour is almost completed as we get to see the Finals from Bastad, Bucharest, Hamburg, Gstaad and Newport all played on Sunday.

The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are also completed on Sunday and all four ties are still alive going into the final day. That means there are some big Singles Rubbers to be played in the four locations those Quarter Finals are being played and the potential of seeing players have to get through a Rubber 5 match is going to be fun to watch.

The picks have had a second successful set of tournaments in a row following on from a strong Wimbledon, but I need to build on this through the remainder of the season. That consistency has not been with me over the last twelve months and I also have to be careful Sunday doesn't ruin what has been a strong week so far with the remaining picks for these tournaments.

Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: It was another match where Pablo Cuevas did not drop serve, but he failed to cover the handicap for me in his Semi Final win over Renzo Olivo. However I liked the fact that Cuevas created as many chances to break serve as he did and I think he is in the kind of form which will make it difficult for Martin Klizan to get the better of him.

Injuries have affected the Klizan season, but I am never really fully convinced about this player. He has a very good serve, but Klizan seems to go walkabout mentally in matches and that will be exposed by someone like Cuevas who seems to be much more steady with his form within matches.

This week has been a strong one for Klizan who has won the last seven sets he has competed in, although I have to say he has been favoured by the draw. Klizan has beaten Daniel Gimeno Traver and Stephane Robert in the last two Rounds after both of those players came through tough matches prior to facing the Slovakian. That has been a big bonus for Klizan who went 1-3 on the clay courts at this time of the year in 2015 and who faces his most difficult opponent of the week.

I think Cuevas will have an edge in the Final as he has played better on the clay than his opponent and doesn't have the same fluctuations in form as Klizan does. If he continues serving as he has been, I think Cuevas comes through with a 75, 64 win and I will back him to cover this handicap on the way to picking up another clay court title in 2016.

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The two Semi Final matches in Bastad had to be played simultaneously thanks to the poor weather in the area, but the title will once again be won by a Spaniard. Albert Ramos-Vinolas beat David Ferrer in the Semi Final to snap his run of six losses to his compatriot, but this might be the tougher match at this point with Fernando Verdasco showing his top form on his run to the Final.

After recovering an early break in his own Semi Final, Verdasco dominated Gastao Elias and none of the players he has faced so far this week have managed to take more than three games in a single set against him. While saying that, it has to be noted that is easily the most difficult match Verdasco will have faced in Bastad.

It is strange to see Ramos-Vinolas coming in as the higher Ranked player, but there is no doubting the respect Verdasco will offer him as the former reached the Quarter Final at the French Open. The key for Ramos-Vinolas will be dealing with the power that Verdasco has, while the latter is also very strong when facing fellow lefties on the Tour.

These moments have become much rarer for Verdasco than a few years ago, but I have to think he has to be backed to overcome Ramos-Vinolas. I feel Verdasco has been playing some of his best tennis this week and he used his momentum to win one title in Bucharest earlier in the season and his current momentum will make it difficult for Ramos-Vinolas to stop him.

After a close first set, I think Verdasco will earn a little more belief and win this title with a 75, 64 win.


Gilles Muller v Ivo Karlovic: There is going to be a couple of mental hurdles for Gilles Muller to overcome in the Newport Final, but doing that will give him a chance to win his first ever title on the main Tour. The first is dealing with the Ivo Karlovic serve which can be frustrating at the best of times and the second is overcoming any nerves in trying to win a first main Tour title.

Muller will have recent experience of playing in a Final having reached that position on the grass in Hertogenbosch last month having beaten Karlovic on the way through. His serve was very impressive that day and Muller will need to serve well as he won't have a lot of chances to break serve in this one himself.

Tie-breakers are likely to be the order of the day, but Muller's lefty serve can give him an advantage when it comes to securing points behind serve. That shot naturally goes into the weaker Karlovic wing and the key for both players might be getting off the first shot when they do see any second serves.

Both players have admitted that there is little between them and a few big points will decide the match. However I like the underdog Muller in terms of recent form and I will back him to win his first title at odds against.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Fabio Fognini played twice on Saturday, winning the Singles Rubber but taking part in the Doubles defeat later in the day. That means the pressure is on Fognini to keep Italy in the tie and force a final Rubber to decide the Semi Final place, but he has thrived in Davis Cup action representing his country.

The destruction of Juan Monaco on Saturday had much to do with Fognini's opponent playing far below the level he usually produces. However that has improved Fognini's Davis Cup record as he gets set for a much more difficult task in beating Federico Delbonis who has a 2-1 head to head advantage over him on the clay courts.

Delbonis played very well in beating Andreas Seppi on Friday and he will be well rested as he looks to secure Argentina's place in the Semi Finals. His lefty serve is a real threat on the clay courts, but managing the crowd will be a difficulty for him despite winning his first away Rubber in the Davis Cup on Friday.

I definitely think this will be a lot closer than Fognini's win over Monaco, but I still think the home favourite can come through. Andreas Seppi wasn't totally at the races in his defeat to Delbonis on Friday, but he came close to getting into a commanding position in that match and I think Fognini will be a little better in a 63, 36, 63, 76 win.


Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This could be the crucial Rubber for Great Britain if they want to continue the defence of the Davis Cup they won last season with the pressure piled on Kyle Edmund to get it done. The performance of James Ward in his Singles defeat on Saturday doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn that around against Janko Tipsarevic and so Great Britain will be looking at Edmund.

This is going to be a much tougher test for Edmund when he faces Dusan Lajovic who was convincingly better than Ward on Saturday. His best performances come on the clay courts and Lajovic has had some top wins on the surface while also pushing Stan Wawrinka to four sets in a defeat to him in the Second Round of the French Open that Wawrinka eventually won.

Lajovic looked to have plenty of variation in his game on Saturday and the backhand down the line looked very good. However the power looks like it will come from the Edmund side of the court and this looks a fascinating Rubber 4 that has plenty on the line for both nations.

I would be surprised if either player has as 'easy' a time as they did in their first Singles wins. With both Lajovic and Edmund comfortable on the clay courts I am fully expecting this to go at least four sets and it might even develop into a classic five setter. Either way I am looking for the players to combine to cover the total games market and we might also potentially see a final Rubber to decide the winner of the tie.


Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v John Isner: It won't be many times in a players career that they would have lost back to back five set matches while leading 2-0 in sets. That is what Marin Cilic has to deal with, but helping Ivan Dodig win the Doubles Rubber in this Davis Cup tie on Saturday has kept Croatia alive and I think Cilic can get the better of John Isner in this big Rubber 4.

That would bring Croatia back to 2-2 in the tie, although Cilic's defeat to Jack Sock has to have left some mental scars after he blew his chances to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Cilic didn't serve well enough in the match with Sock and failing to do better in that department will make it almost impossible to beat a huge server like John Isner who won't give up too many chances on his own serve.

Isner will have some sympathy for Cilic having also been beaten at Wimbledon despite taking the first two sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He at least bounced back by beating Borna Coric comfortably in this tie and Isner was rested for the Doubles which would have been expected to be the last Rubber as the USA can call upon the Bryan Brothers.

He will have his own mental demons to cope with as Isner has lost all five previous matches against Cilic. Those losses include straight set losses in the United States in Miami and Delray Beach, but the two Grand Slam matches have both gone the distance and needed at least sixteen games in the final set to separate them.

I can't imagine this being an easy win for either player, but Cilic can use the fact he has beaten Isner every time they have met to his favour. Even at two sets up it won't be easy for Cilic having blown his last two Singles matches from that position, but I like him keeping this tie alive for the final Rubber.


Jack Sock - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: This final Rubber will only be played if Marin Cilic has been able to beat John Isner like I think he will and that will mean the pressure is on the two young players in the United States and Croatia squads.

I have to say that Jack Sock showed tremendous resolve in coming back from two sets down to beat Cilic on Friday and it is the kind of performance that can jump start his career. However the full effect of that win will only be felt if Sock is able to complete the win for the United States and that is a different kind of pressure for him to deal with as he will be expected to win the match.

He is facing a very talented player in Borna Coric but one who has struggled for consistency on what is a long season on the Tour. Since his run to the Final in Chennai at the start of the season, Coric has had a hard time earning results on the hard courts as his serve can be a little inconsistent which can be devastating on the faster surfaces.

Coric was beaten fairly handily by John Isner on Friday and I think Sock can give him plenty of problems too. Sock will have to serve better than he did in his win over Cilic, particularly the way he served in the first two sets, but I think the American can bring it home for his nation in a 64, 76, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 23-14, + 13.42 Units (74 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 15th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Finals begin on Friday and the one that will be of most interest where I am is unsurprisingly the one between Serbia and Great Britain. When that Quarter Final was put together back in March, the feeling was that we might get to see the World Number 1 and 2 facing each other in one of the Rubbers, but both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are not in a position to compete.

With Victor Troicki also out for the home team, Great Britain go into the tie as the favourites to make it through to the Davis Cup Semi Final in an attempt to defend the title they won last season. They are only narrow favourites with all five Rubbers looking very competitive and it should be a fun tie over the next three days.

The other three ties also look competitive with some top matches to be played on Friday in the Singles and I am looking for a fun few days in that competition.


The latter stages of the tournaments that have been in action this week will also be played on Friday with Quarter Finals in many of those events. Organisers in Gstaad are hoping the improved weather forecast for the weekend does come true as that is the only event that is miles behind where they should be with some First Round matches yet to be competed.

You can't really blame the organisers as there really wasn't a lot they could do with the extremely poor weather that has hit the event, but there will be a hope that they can complete the event in the coming days. There would also be a hope that the weather doesn't take a turn for the worse and have the ATP event here next week in a similar predicament with that clay event to start on Monday in the main draw.


It has been a solid week for the picks and it was a decent Thursday too to back up what has been a good week to this point. With just three days to go for the week, I am looking to just kick on a little and give this season a shot in the arm at a time of the season when my 2015 series of picks began to circle the drain.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: I still don't know how Paul-Henri Mathieu got out of his Second Round match against Nicolas Almagro facing the pressure he was. The Frenchman has to be happy with the one day of rest he would have had between that match and this Quarter Final, but Pablo Cuevas is very comfortable on the clay courts and has been playing well enough this week to punish Mathieu if his performance levels haven't risen since Wednesday.

It was a long, physical match for Mathieu against Almagro in which he saved eleven of the fourteen break points he earned. The stats show how much pressure the Spaniard had on the Mathieu serve throughout the match and he was just 5-6 on the clay in 2016 before this tournament began. However, Mathieu had three really strong runs in the weeks following Wimbledon last season and for that reason alone he should be respected.

Even with that in mind, it has to be remembered this is the most significant challenge Mathieu would have faced so far this week. Pablo Cuevas has won both matches he has played in Hamburg in straight sets and he has been a title winner on the clay already this season on a couple of different occasions.

Both wins for Cuevas have come behind strong serving displays and doing that here will once again put pressure on Mathieu. Doing that should lead to Cuevas coming through with a 63, 64 win in this one and a place in the Semi Final to be played on Saturday.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Stephane Robert: There won't be too many more chances for these veterans to add a title to their career haul, but both Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Stephane Robert will believe they can beat the other for a Semi Final place. Over the course of the season, Garcia-Lopez does usually produce more on a clay court than Robert, but that won't matter too much in this Quarter Final with so much on the line for both players.

Robert did reach the Final of a Challenger event last month but he hasn't taken that kind of form onto the main Tour draws on this surface.

On the other hand Garcia-Lopez has struggled to get over the line when it comes to Quarter Finals and Semi Finals he has played on the clay this season. That can become a mental issue, but the key for the Spaniard might be recalling how he beat Robert earlier this season.

That was a close match with a number of breaks of serve and plenty of other opportunities to do that. It won't take much for Robert to reverse that form, but I think he was pushed a little too much by Inigo Cervantes in the Second Round and Garcia-Lopez is a better clay court player than his compatriot. After a few breaks, and potentially a final set decider, I think Garcia-Lopez moves past the veteran Frenchman 63, 36, 63.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: It has been two very good wins for Fernando Verdasco which has taken him through to the Quarter Final in Bastad and he has to be feeling he can add to the title he won in Bucharest earlier this season. The Spaniard has given up just ten games in his two wins this week and Verdasco is in the bottom half of the draw which means avoiding top Seed David Ferrer until the Final.

Solid serving and aggressive returning has helped Verdasco keep the pressure on his opponents in the first two Rounds, although the challenge presented by Facundo Bagnis is likely stronger than any he has faced so far.

Bagnis might be known for giving Rafael Nadal a minor, minor scare when breaking him first when they met at the French Open, while his best results have come on the Challenger circuit on in Qualifiers. He will be very comfortable on the clay courts which makes him a threat and Bagnis did have an impressive win over Marcel Granollers in the Second Round.

If the Argentinian serves well, he could give Verdasco more problems than anyone else has so far this week. Bagnis will know that Verdasco does throw in a sloppy service game or two in any set, but I do think the latter is playing very aggressively in a draw that isn't exactly that deep when it comes to talent levels.

After a couple of scares, I expect Verdasco to eventually start wearing down Bagnis with his weight of shot and win this one 64, 63.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Dustin Brown: It is hard to imagine that David Ferrer has hit 34 years of age and I do think his style of tennis is beginning to wear him down. No longer can he simply look to out-rally opponents on the court and grind them down as Ferrer makes too many errors these days and his serve has not looked as vulnerable as it has this season.

The Number 1 Seed in Bastad had to come from a set down and then a break down in the deciding set to see off Calvin Hemery who came through the Qualifiers. Ferrer will know he has to be stronger when facing the dangerous Dustin Brown, even if the clay courts take something away from the German's game.

Even on this surface, Brown will look to get to the net and pressure opponents, but the extra time on the clay means opponents have more success with the pass than on a grass court. Brown did come through Qualifiers and reached the Second Round at the French Open which shows he can perform on the clay courts, but Ferrer should feel he can get the better of the majority of the rallies against someone who will look to hit winners from some ridiculous positions on the court.

If Brown is on his game, he could be very dangerous even against someone like Ferrer on this surface. However I feel the more likely scenario is that Ferrer will get enough returns back in play to earn a fair few break point chances and that should help the Spaniard work his way to a 75, 63 win.


Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: These two are Portuguese Davis Cup team-mates, but it is Joao Sousa who has managed to produce consistent enough results to play in plenty more main Tour matches than his compatriot Gastao Elias. Sousa has actually played consistently enough to get into a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events, but he has lost the last three times he has played Elias although the last of those came back in 2012.

Both men had to win their Second Round matches on Thursday, but it was Sousa who spent a lot less physically and emotionally in his win. That came against a youngster who would have been supported by the home crowd, but Elias had to dig deep and ride his luck to see off Taro Daniel.

It was Daniel who created the break point opportunities, but eventually the Elias aggression proved to be a little too much for Daniel to deal with. He will look to be aggressive in this one too, but Sousa should be prepared to deal with that having faced many players like that at a higher level than Elias.

Mentally he does have to get over the fact he has lost three in a row to Elias, but Sousa is a a much improved player from 2012. Neither player possesses the best serve so expect plenty of rallies and break point chances for both players, but I will look for Sousa to snap his losing run to his fellow Portuguese player and come through 75, 46, 63.


Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Polona Hercog: You can see from the rise of Johanna Konta that a successful few months on the WTA Tour can quickly improve a World Ranking for any player. Laura Siegemund is another who has been improving over 2016 and another strong showing on the clay courts could see her get close to being Seeded by the time the US Open rolls around.

The last couple of years has seen Siegemund earn her best results on the clay courts and this season she has been a Quarter Finalist in Charleston and Finalist in Stuttgart on the surface. The latter of those tournaments saw Siegemund beat the likes of Simona Halep, Roberta Vinci and Agnieszka Radwanska without dropping a set and even her very early defeat at the French Open can be forgiven when noting she was drawn against Eugenie Bouchard.

Siegemund is playing Polona Hercog who has struggled for consistency on the clay courts in 2016 and would have had a losing record on the surface prior to her two wins in Bucharest. You have to give Hercog some respect having reached the Semi Final here last season before losing to the eventual winner, but her current form makes it tough to think she can reverse the loss to Siegemund in Stuttgart.

It was Siegemund who got the better of the break point opportunities on that occasion and I think she is more likely to have that success again. It won't always be straight-forward, but Siegemund has shown enough form to think she comes through 75, 64 in this one.


Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: I was a little fortunate to come out of my Sara Errani pick on Thursday unscathed after she was blown out in the first set against Francesca Schiavone. Unfortunately the latter had to retire after dropping the second set and that allowed last season's Bucharest Finalist to move through to the Quarter Final.

I can see Errani taking advantage of her good fortune in what has been a disappointing clay court season for her by her own high standards. A long losing run on the clay courts can't be simply tossed aside, but Errani has to feel she has lost to better players than Anastasija Sevastova in that time.

Sevastova has reached the Final of a tournament below the main Tour level on the clay, but she would have been 3-4 in main Tour events on this surface prior to the start of this tournament. While those two wins will have given her confidence, Sevastova is going to be playing someone who can frustrate some of the best players on the Tour especially when on the clay courts.

The concern with backing Errani will always be the poor serve which has been attacked much better by opponents this season than previously. The Italian will give up chances to break serve, but I think she can extract errors from the Sevastova game too and Errani can win this match 76, 63.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Both of these players had to play their Second Round matches on Thursday and both Gilles Muller and Adrian Mannarino had to come through some difficult moments before recording straight sets victories.

Muller had a break advantage twice in the first set, missed a number of set points and then needed to battle through a tie-breaker to get his nose in front against Victor Estrella Burgos. Adrian Mannarino came back from 5-1 down in the first set against Sam Groth before winning that in a tie-breaker and then only losing one point on serve in the second set.

It should mean both players are confident going into this Quarter Final, but I had given Muller a significant edge in the contest before looking at the prices. It seems the layers are less convinced by Muller's advantages over Mannarino and that might be because the lefty serve is not as dominant against another southpaw.

However, I believe Muller will earn more cheap points in this one and I can't ignore the fact Mannarino dropped serve twice to Groth who is a more limited returner than Muller. Mannarino was also beaten 63, 64 by Ivo Karlovic last month on the grass and Muller is a better gras court player than the Frenchman which makes me believe he can cover a small number and ensure he has one of the four Semi Final places on offer.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Juan Monaco: Juan Monaco has admitted that any friendship has to be put on the back burner when he represents Argentina in Rubber 2 of the Davis Cup Quarter Final against Italy. He will take on Fabio Fognini in that Rubber and Monaco has admitted that some sort of revenge is on his mind as the second Singles player for Argentina.

Revenge because Monaco was actually beaten by Fognini the last time he represented Argentina in the Davis Cup in 2014. That loss came in Argentina so he has a chance for the ultimate revenge by beating Fognini in Italy, but the straight sets loss will have had an affect on his mindset for this match.

Prior to that, Monaco had won three in a row against Fognini, but it is the latter who saves some of his best tennis for when he is representing Italy. He has gone 16-6 in Singles matches in the Davis Cup while Fognini is a very impressive 12-1 on the clay courts, although the one concern has to be the poor recent form he has produced.

Some of those losses have been very poor for Fognini, but I think he will have refocused for this one now he is playing in the Davis Cup. I expect Fognini and Monaco will both offer up plenty of break points and this is bound to be a match with a lot of long rallies, but I think Fognini can use the home crowd to come through 63, 26, 64, 64.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: He will forever be remembered for his stunning performance in beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but Lukas Rosol has struggled to reach those standards consistently. Rosol has been sliding down the World Rankings and he will be opening this Davis Cup Quarter Final for the Czech Republic on the hard courts where he is 5-6 in Davis Cup Rubbers.

He takes on the top French selection in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who crushed Rosol in straight sets for his nation in the Davis Cup in 2014. That match did come on the clay courts and Rosol did beat Tsonga on an indoor hard court at the back end of last season, but Tsonga is someone who has enjoyed playing Davis Cup tennis and showed considerable form at Wimbledon.

While the move in surface can be a concern, Tsonga's performance suggests he can win this opening Rubber as long as he continues to serve as big as he did. Tsonga has struggled with his own consistency through 2016 and injuries have also been an issue for him, but the Frenchman is 11-3 in indoors Davis Cup Rubbers and 6-2 on hard courts.

If Tsonga is serving big, he will give Rosol some problems as a limited returner. Tsonga's own return isn't the best, but Rosol can be very loose with the errors he produces which could give Tsonga a way into the Rosol service games. On an indoor hard court, it won't be as simple as when Tsonga beat Rosol at home two years ago, but I do think the extravagant performer can win this one 75, 67, 75, 63.


Jiri Vesely - 1.5 sets v Lucas Pouille: Both Jiri Vesely and Lucas Pouille will remember Wimbledon 2016 and they will be hoping to look back on that as being a turning point for their careers. Now they both represent their nations in an important Rubber 2 and I think Jiri Vesely can use home advantage to make sure the Czech Republic are not behind after one day of play.

This might only be the eighth Davis Cup match Vesely has played and only the fourth that will be considered a live Singles Rubber, but that is still much more experience than Pouille who makes his debut for France. The latter showed he can thrive under new conditions when reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final, but Pouille is still to show the consistency on a week by week basis.

He has lost his two previous matches against Vesely and I think the Czech player has also made a big breakthrough in reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. His previous experiences of Davis Cup plus being at home are all advantages over Pouille and a strong serving display from Vesely will make it tough to beat him.

It is Pouille who is higher Ranked going into the match, but I think Vesely can use his additional experience to good effect in this one. His serve looks big enough to cause Pouille problems and I do think the home crowd can affect the young Frenchman even if there will be an easing of that pressure if Tsonga wins Rubber 1.

Vesely's poor form on the hard courts has to be a concern, but I believe he can win this one in three or four sets.


Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray sitting out, the layers feel this Davis Cup Quarter Final is finely balanced between Serbia and Great Britain. While Great Britain have the edge in terms of World Rankings, Serbia may feel they can get the better of them if Janko Tipsarevic can lean on all the experience he has had in his career.

Tipsarevic opens for Serbia against Kyle Edmund who has lost his one previous Davis Cup Singles match, although that defeat came in the Davis Cup Final against David Goffin from a position of being up two sets. Playing away from home would have given Edmund plenty of experience, but this is going to be a lot more raucous than playing in Belgium and that is going to be difficult to deal with.

It has been three years since Tipsarevic represented Serbia, but he has gone 16-5 in clay court matches for his nation and 12-3 in matches played outdoors. Serbia will be hoping Tipsarevic can use all of those experiences to rattle Edmund, but he hasn't played a lot of tennis this year and is 0-2 in clay court matches in 2016.

Edmund's record isn't much better at 3-4, but he has won a Challenger on the surface and this is all about how he handles the Serbian crowd which can be intimidating. My feeling is that Tipsarevic is perhaps finding some of his best tennis again, although not as consistently as when he was a feature of the top ten in the World Rankings. In saying that, I think he is being given plenty of games that can be crucial in a match that might go the distance and I will back Tipsarevic to cover.


Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 games v James Ward: There is a lot of pressure on Dusan Lajovic as the highest Ranked Serbian player in this Davis Cup Quarter Final. Usually he would be behind both Novak Djokovic and Victor Troicki, but the pressure will be on Lajovic to find a couple of wins over the next three days to give Serbia a chance to progress to the Semi Final.

He is a big favourite to beat James Ward in Rubber 2 on Friday and you can't argue with that when you consider he is a much better clay court player than Ward. This is also one of the better live Rubbers that Lajovic has been given with the majority of his Davis Cup defeats coming against some of the better players on the Tour like Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.

Lajovic should absolutely respect Ward who stunned John Isner by taking a Rubber win over him last season to help Great Britain on their way to the Davis Cup victory they had in 2015. Ward also stunned Sam Querrey in a live Rubber on the clay a couple of years ago, but he has lost his only other two clay matches and recent form doesn't inspire much confidence.

Ward is now Ranked outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and he is 2-5 on the clay courts in 2016 with none of those matches coming in main Tour draws. The British player simply hasn't been winning a lot of matches recently which has to have a mental effect going into this Davis Cup Quarter Final in which Ward would not have been involved if Andy Murray and Dan Evans were available for selection.

I just don't think Ward has the game to really stay with Lajovic in the likely atmosphere he will face and I think the home favourite will come through 46, 64, 64, 62.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: Marin Cilic won the US Open just two years ago and he hasn't just enjoyed playing in the United States but he has also enjoyed playing against opponents from this nation. That will be music to the ears of the Croatian Davis Cup team as Cilic looks to improve his 32-5 record against American players and win two Rubbers to give his team a chance to move through to the Davis Cup Semi Final.

This is the first time Cilic will have played Jack Sock though and the latter is playing in just his fourth Singles Rubber in the Davis Cup. There is no doubting the improvements that Sock has made on the Tour in the last couple of years and he can be a dangerous opponent, but Davis Cup can be a different kettle of fish altogether than playing regular Tour matches.

I don't think Sock will be fazed, especially as he is benefiting from playing at home, but he doesn't have the strongest set of results on the North American hard courts. The heat has beaten him in the last two US Open events, but Sock should not be too worried about that this time, although results at Indian Wells, Miami and Cincinnati are not that inspiring either.

Cilic has to show he has moved on from blowing his Wimbledon Quarter Final against Roger Federer which he should have won in three or four sets. That would have been a big mental blow considering the tennis Cilic produced in that match, but I think he will relish playing for his country as he has throughout his career. A good serving day from the Croatian should see him hold the edge in the contest and I expect Cilic to win this one 75, 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-4, + 17.52 Units (36 Units Staked, + 48.67% Yield)