Wimbledon Tennis Day 6 Picks 2024 (Saturday 6th July)

This thread should have been out earlier, but the rain on Day 6 means the matches have yet to get going.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard-Emil Ruusuvuori over 43.5 games: Getting to the second week of a Grand Slam is a big achievement for any player, even the very best in the business. For those further down the World Rankings, the points achieved can be a huge boost in their bid to play at other big events throughout the year, while there is little doubt that a strong Grand Slam run will build some confidence.

It is confidence that Emil Ruusuvuori will appreciate having had a tough year on the Tour with his World Ranking plummeting to Number 87. The reality is that Ruusuvuori has not really fulfilled the potential that many felt he had with his career best World Ranking still 'only' being World Number 37, but the drop off is alarming and that has made the two wins produced this week important for him.

Being unseeded means having to play tough competition right from the off in any Grand Slam event and Emil Ruusuvuori beat the World Number 11 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round. That win has opened up the draw in this section of the bottom half of the Men's tournament, but the Finn has to back it up against a new name on the Tour.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is one of a number of new names for French tennis fans to get behind with the old guard moving either into retirement or on the brink of retirement. Strong Challenger level performances have helped Mpetshi Perricard quietly move into the top 60 of the World Rankings and he won a clay court title at the main ATP level in the build up to the French Open.

He was actually Ranked outside of the top 100 when winning the title in Lyon, but the early loss at the French Open would have still stung. It also meant Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard was not Ranked high enough at the Wimbledon cut off to earn direct entry into the Wimbledon main draw and he has played three Qualifiers last week.

The Frenchman won two of those before losing to a compatriot in the Third Qualifying Round, but Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has taken advantage of a Lucky Loser spot in the draw. A huge serve has been key to his successes at Wimbledon this past week and the upset of Sebastian Korda in the First Round has helped Mpetshi Perricard build confidence to take into the rest of the tournament.

He is the favourite in this Third Round match, but this is expected to be a tight match with both players capable servers, but lacking some real bite when it comes to the return. On the grass that is really expected to show up and this match should fly over the total games line as long as we see four sets, which has to be in play with tie-breakers likely needed in at least two of the first three sets.

Even in the slightly cooler, wetter conditions around Wimbledon this weekend, both Emil Ruusuvuori and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard have the serving qualities to contain what has been limited return games. There is plenty on the line for both players with an opportunity to play in the second week at this Grand Slam, and it could be a titanic battle to decide which of the two is playing on Monday in the Fourth Round.

Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullon: One really strong tournament, especially at Grand Slam level, can skew a World Ranking mark and that is the case for Roman Safiullon in his return to Wimbledon.

He might enter the tournament as the World Number 44, but it has been an inconsistent twelve months since reaching the Quarter Final here at Wimbledon. That means that despite the run to the Third Round in 2024, Roman Safiullon's live Ranking is actually down at Number 67 and he will be under some pressure to avoid that slippage during this tournament.

Most players won't really think about the live Ranking and Roman Safiullon clearly has enjoyed playing at Wimbledon over the last two tournaments. He has beaten one Seed, which has opened up this section of the draw, and there is a real opportunity in front of Safiullon.

The Third Round match is against another of the up and coming young French players and one with a lot of expectation being carried on his shoulders. Arthur Fils has flashed plenty of his talent, but he is just 20 years old and so there is still the matter of clearing up some of the inconsistencies in his tennis.

Unlike his opponent, Arthur Fils is picking up Ranking points already with his run to the Third Round and the aim for the Frenchman has to be securing a Seed for the US Open and then building on the 2024 season. He did reach a career best World Ranking in May, but a poor showing at Roland Garros prevented Arthur Fils from earning a Seed at Wimbledon.

Despite that, his win over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round will have given the youngster a lot of belief in his game and that is after reaching the Quarter Final in Halle.

Arthur Fils is capable of serving very well and that is even more impactful on the grass, while this match up may be one he enjoys having beaten Roman Safiullon twice already on the Tour. On both occasions it was Safiullon Ranked the higher of the two, but that narrative has changed ahead of this Third Round match and the match up numbers are certainly very much in favour of the Frenchman.

Despite being the lower Ranked player in those two previous matches, Arthur Fils has been able to hold 94% of his service games compared with just 70% for Roman Safiullon. Prior to Wimbledon, Roman Safiullon had been struggling for confidence and the feeling is that he might still be a touch fragile against an opponent who has given him problems in the past.

Nothing is ever that easy on the grass courts, but Arthur Fils should have the abilities to secure a place in the Fourth Round in SW19 with a victory in three or four sets on Day 6 at The Championships.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: The seven time Wimbledon Champion was a doubt to even arrive at the tournament in the build up to the third Grand Slam of the season. And in the Second Round, Novak Djokovic was given a lot more food for thought than anticipated by a young British player who has had limited experience on the ATP Tour.

Ultimately Novak Djokovic was able to move through to the Third Round and he will not be overly concerned about dropping a set to Jacob Fearnley. The match was perhaps tighter than expected, but Djokovic found the right tennis at the right times to earn a spot in the Third Round and the familiarity of the opponent across the net will certainly help Djokovic.

Alexei Popyrin has not had things all his own way at Wimbledon over the last week, but he found a way to eliminate a Seed in the Second Round.

However, the Australian will be well aware that a win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry is one thing and beating Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon is another all together.

He has to take some confidence from the way he was able to challenge Novak Djokovic at another Grand Slam where he has felt very comfortable. Back in the opening month of the season, Alexei Popyrin won a set against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, although it was the Serb who was relatively comfortable on his way past a home hope.

The danger that Alexei Popyrin brings to the grass courts is clear from the fact that he has taken sets from Andy Murray and Tommy Paul over the last month on this surface. He was beaten in both though and Novak Djokovic is perhaps a little under-rated in this one when it comes to the handicap mark set.

Even if he was to drop a set, Novak Djokovic has been serving well enough to keep Alexei Popyrin under pressure and we know how strong a return player that the former World Number 1 can be.

Dealing with the Alexei Popyrin serve will be tough, but Novak Djokovic has broken in 20% of return games played against this opponent and the Second Round win might just have made sure Djokovic has refocused. He would not have known much about his last opponent, but that is not the case in this Third Round match and Novak Djokovic can just remind the rest of the draw that he is here to win and not simply to compete.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: For all of her obvious qualities and the fact she has won five Grand Slam titles, there is a vulnerability about World Number 1 and top Seed Iga Swiatek when it comes to playing on the grass courts.

Her best performance at Wimbledon is reaching the Quarter Final twelve months ago, but Iga Swiatek does not carry nearly the same aura as she does when entering a clay court.

She will be favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal when the Paris Games are played at Roland Garros, but Iga Swiatek will be looking to prove herself on the grass at Wimbledon. A decision was made to play no warm up tournaments ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season, but Iga Swiatek has not allowed that to affect her level and two solid wins over Sofia Kenin and Petra Martic has to give her confidence.

This Third Round match may be another step up in level of opponent, especially as Yulia Putintseva has won all seven matches played on the grass courts in 2024. Any player who has secured a title on the surface will have confidence and Yulia Putintseva has always been a solid player on the grass.

However, it should be noted that none of the seven wins have been against an opponent Ranked inside the top 35 and so facing the World Number 1 will feel like a real step up in class.

The pressure will feel that much more when Yulia Putintseva remembers that she has lost all four previous Tour matches against Iga Swiatek and struggled to be very competitive in any of those.

Playing on the grass will help, but Putintseva has failed to win a set against the World Number 1 and she has only won 52% of the service points played. This likely means being under pressure almost all of the time and it can be one that breaks a player emotionally, while there may not be the belief for the underdog to find a way to turn things around against one of the strongest frontrunners on the WTA Tour.

Twelve months ago, Iga Swiatek did show she can be very good on the grass and can have too much for opponents to cope with. It has been tougher in 2024, but the two wins under the belt will just give the top Seed a chance to build on the performances produced so far and Swiatek may end up pulling clear for the win.

MY PICKS: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard-Emil Ruusuvuori Over 43.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 14-8, + 8.44 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.18% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2023 (July 6th)

You can never blame any tournament that has been impacted by poor weather, but the organisers of Wimbledon have to ask themselves some serious questions as to how they have handled the first three days of this year's event.

Nothing could be done about Tuesday and the torrential rain, but they will have been well aware that they are already behind schedule when releasing the order of play for Wednesday. While most expected a drier day, two rain delays have clearly had an impact as to how quickly they could get through the draw, but I am not sure how they can justify being in a position where some players are into the Third Round, while others have not even been able to begin their First Round match.

The uncertainty about how to use the two roofs they do have only compounded this error of judgement when it comes to having their draw become as lopsided as it has become.

I understand there are certainly players that will have the privilege of playing on the big two courts and have deserved those places, but Alexander Zverev and Karolina Muchova have every right to be seriously upset as to how their tournament schedule is going to look. Both have yet to even hit a ball in the First Round and Muchova in particular has to be feeling aggrieved having been seen as a dark horse at a Slam where she has had success in the past and after reaching the French Open Final last month.

At least the next two days look drier as both of these players are going to have to win on likely three straight days to earn their place in the Fourth Round. This is far from ideal, but Wimbledon's organisers are going to have to do a much better job of trying to keep the tournament as fair as possible, especially with more rain expected after Friday.

This also means a number of Picks have yet to be played through the first three days and the large majority of the Second Round Picks I made for Day 3 have been postponed until Day 4. You can have a look at those selections by clicking here and I have written down a few thoughts about a couple of those matches and my reason for making those Picks below.

That link will take you to the Picks for matches that were scheduled to be played on Wednesday, but more Second Round matches have been put together and other selections are added here, while also updating the Wimbledon totals from what has been a busy week.

The quick turnaround for some players also means it takes a touch more time for the markets to be opened up for some of the Second Round matches set to be played on Thursday and it will be the case again ahead of Day 5 as the tournament looks to get back on schedule.

Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 games v Jan Choinski: The early Rounds of Wimbledon tends to be a time when the home broadcaster will be keen on 'Brit Watch' with a number of familiar names from the grass court portion of the season. A large majority of those British names are pretty low in the World Rankings and have had very little impact at events outside of the grass court events, but even to those who follow Wimbledon will sometimes be surprised by names that represent the home nation.

One of those in the Gentlemen's draw is Jan Choinski who began his career representing Germany before switching to Great Britain four years ago. However, unlike many players from Britain, grass court tennis has been a little alien to Jan Choinski and his poor record on the surface did mean there would have been little fanfare around him.

A Wild Card has earned Jan Choinski a place in the main draw, the first time he has competed in any Grand Slam, and credit has to be given to the World Number 164 for winning a First Round match. The victory over Dusan Lajovic is just the third time Jan Choinski has been able to beat a top 100 Ranked player on the Tour, but the challenge looks much tougher in the Second Round with the British player set to face a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist.

Hubert Hurkacz may have written his name into the quiz books as being the last player to beat Roger Federer in the latter's storied career, but the World Number 18 will have entered Wimbledon with a real ambition to really stamp his mark on tennis history the old fashioned way of winning a Grand Slam title. The Semi Final run in 2021 saw Hubert Hurkacz beat both Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer on the big show courts at Wimbledon before coming undone against Matteo Berrettini, and the big Pole made relatively easy work of Albert Ramos in the First Round.

There is no doubt that the return game is the weakness for Hubert Hurkacz and it makes covering handicap marks like this one a tough task, but he can make enough balls back in play to put his lower Ranked opponent under pressure.

All credit has to be given to Jan Choinski for the way he won his First Round match, but his form in the warm up events was nothing to write home about. In previous matches against top 100 Ranked opponents before the First Round, Jan Choinski had won just 58% of service points played and that was the percentage when playing the grass court events leading up to this tournament.

It has meant that Jan Choinski has lost serve 28% of the time on the grass, while he has had issues on the return. The latter part of his game is going to be given a severe examination by the serve produced by Hubert Hurkacz and you just have to believe the former Semi Finalist will have enough to find at least four breaks of serve, which could be enough to cover this mark.

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: You cannot ignore the mid-match wobble that Andrey Rublev had in his First Round win over Max Purcell, but the fact is that the top ten Seed was able to avoid dropping a set and make relatively serene progress through to the Second Round. He will look to continue to fly under the radar in the same half of the draw as favourite Novak Djokovic, but Andrey Rublev will know that his level needs to be stronger for longer if he is going to beat his compatriot in the Second Round.

Prior to his breakthrough at the Australian Open in 2021, Aslan Karatsev had been spoken about in glowing terms by Rublev and Daniil Medvedev when joining them at the ATP Cup. The strong run in Melbourne saw Karatsev playing with confidence and momentum that took him up to World Number 14, but he is entering Wimbledon as the Number 50 Ranked player in the world.

And Aslan Karatsev has found it difficult to match the raised expectations that would have come with his run to the Australian Open Semi Final in his debut at Grand Slam level. Since then, Karatsev has played in eight Slam tournaments and he has reached the Third Round just twice, while failing to earn a place in the second week in any of those events.

Playing on the grass has been tough for Aslan Karatsev who has a 6-12 record on the surface after coming from a set down to win his First Round match. That is the first ever win recorded by Aslan Karatsev at Wimbledon and backing that up will not be easy against Andrey Rublev who reached the Halle Final.

The Aslan Karatsev serve can be a pretty effective weapon on the grass, but it is the return where he has struggled to make an impact and that has put pressure on him. His service numbers have been better in 2023 compared with 2022 on this surface, but there has been a real slide when only focusing on the two matches that Karatsev has played against top 50 Ranked players on this surface.

He did take a set against Lorenzo Sonego, but Aslan Karatsev was pretty well beaten in the end and has also lost to Taylor Fritz. While both of those players may feel they are stronger than Andrey Rublev on the grass, the World Number 7 has had some strong victories on the grass this year and he can earn a measure of revenge for the defeat suffered to Aslan Karatsev in Dubai in 2021.

Andrey Rublev serves pretty efficiently on the grass himself, but should have a real edge in the return and that can eventually show up in this Second Round match over the best of five setting.

Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Liam Broady: The British player might be the lower Ranked of the two, but there are plenty of expectations around Liam Broady in this Second Round match at Wimbledon as he bids for the upset. A lot of the talking heads have given the left hander a real chance of beating Casper Ruud, but I do think that has been overplayed and the French Open Runner Up is someone who should be able to produce solid tennis on the grass courts.

Results have not been the best for Casper Ruud, who is legitimately allergic to grass, but a solid win in the First Round will do him the world of good. He has not played any tennis since losing the French Open Final to Novak Djokovic, but Casper Ruud came out strongly and he was more than worth his win even if he dropped a set.

It might actually do Casper Ruud some good to have had to play a little bit more tennis in the First Round and he was very strong through the last couple of sets having lost the second.

Casper Ruud got a little bit more out of his serve in the First Round and he will believe that he has the tools to have an effective serve on the grass courts. He is facing someone in Liam Broady who is very comfortable on the grass courts, but who has only broken in 11% of return games played on this surface against top 50 Ranked opponents.

You have to credit Liam Broady for his win in the First Round and he did reach the Third Round last year having finally beaten a top 50 Ranked opponent on the grass against Diego Schwartzman. However, he was well beaten by Alex de Minaur in the Third Round and I do think Liam Broady will struggle to stay with Casper Ruud over the course of this one.

It is unlikely to be a one sided blowout throughout, but Casper Ruud should be able to exert his quality on the match after a couple of tight sets.

This has been seen in Liam Broady's previous matches against the better players on the Tour and Ruud should be able to find his rhythm once he gets accustomed to the left handed server he is facing.

Over the course of his career, Liam Broady has won 56% of his service points played against top 50 Ranked opponents and that has seen him hold onto 65% of his service games. That number only marginally increases to 67% when considering his grass court matches, while the British player will have some difficulties getting into the Casper Ruud service games if the Norwegian is serving anywhere near as well as he was in the First Round.

We are asking for a big spread to be covered, but Ruud has the capabilities to be much better on the grass than we have seen so far in his career and he can get the better of the home player on Centre Court on Day 4.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Katie Boulter - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 23-17, + 7.42 Units (80 Units Staked, + 9.28% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2022 (July 6th)

That was a tough day to absorb.

There were moments when it felt like I would have at least a couple of winners, but things went badly wrong in the middle of matches and I have to take it on the chin.

Nick Kyrgios - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: News broke on Tuesday that Nick Kyrgios is going to have to deal with assault charges back in his native Australia next month, but I am not sure he is the kind of player that will allow that to be a distraction with a huge opportunity in front of him.

For all the obvious talent, Nick Kyrgios has often been criticised for not taking his tennis seriously and that may be underlined by the fact he is only going to be playing in his third ever Grand Slam Quarter Final. At 27 years old and with a growing threat from an emerging group of players on the ATP Tour coupled with the old guard still playing as well as ever, Nick Kyrgios may not have many better opportunities to try and reach a Semi Final in a major.

He could not have asked for a better opponent in all honesty, although Cristian Garin deserves his respect for taking advantage of Matteo Berrettini's absence from the draw. The Chilean may not have had the best season, but showed plenty of grit and heart in coming from 2-0 down to beat Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round.

However, you do have to wonder how much energy that has sapped from the tank, both emotionally and physically, while Cristian Garin is playing in his first ever Quarter Final at this level. At least he is facing Nick Kyrgios who has needed five sets twice already in this tournament and who can go walkabout within matches.

In saying that, the big problem for Cristian Garin may be the vulnerability of the serve and especially against someone who can serve as dominantly as Nick Kyrgios can on his best day. The Australian has only dropped serve five times in the tournament and admitted to 'tanking' away one of those games in the last Round to give opponent Brandon Nakashima a full sense of confidence ahead of the deciding set.

That attitude does make it difficult to trust Nick Kyrgios to cover big spreads like this one, but I am expecting him to have a lot more joy against the Cristian Garin serve than he did in the last Round. It also has to be expected that Kyrgios came off the boil a little after all of the emotions and controversy surrounding his Third Round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he should be much more ready for this match.

Nick Kyrgios is not the most efficient of return players, but he has been playing well enough on that side of his tennis over the last month. He has also found plenty of breaks of serve in this tournament and I expect his grass court tennis to be that much bigger than compatriot Alex De Minuar was able to produce in his loss to Cristian Garin and it should see Nick Kyrgios reach the Semi Final of a Slam for the first time.

Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: Winning the title at Wimbledon in 2019 was a huge achievement for Simona Halep, but first Covid and then injury prevented the former World Number 1 from ever returning as the defending Champion. While she has not been defeated at Wimbledon after winning the title, Simona Halep was not even offered the chance to open Centre Court on Day 2 of the tournament, a spot reserved for the defending Champion and with Ashleigh Barty retired and absent from the event.

I can't imagine that has been a real motivation factor for Simona Halep, but she has blitzed her way through to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and at this stage I think it is going to take a special performance to knock her off.

We have already seen a couple of those from Amanda Anisimova and the young American is looking to finally begin fulfilling her potential and win a major title. There is so much to like about the Amanda Anisimova game, but she has not really followed up the run to the French Open Semi Final in 2019 as she would have liked.

This is only her second Quarter Final at the Grand Slam level and the American had not even made the second week of a major since that performance in Paris in 2019. Things have changed this season with back to back Fourth Round runs at the Australian Open and French Open, but Amanda Anisimova has gone one better this time around and there will be a confidence about her game.

Amanda Anisimova actually upset the defending French Open Champion, Simona Halep, in that run to the Semi Final in 2019, but the Romanian former World Number 1 has clearly taken offence to that and beaten Anisimova very comfortably in the last two matches between the pair. That includes a humbling 6/2, 6/1 win over Amanda Anisimova in Bad Homberg on the grass courts in the build to Wimbledon last month and Simona Halep has given up just five games in the last four sets between the two.

I won't ignore how well Amanda Anisimova has played to reach the Quarter Final, but Simona Halep is also playing at an exceptional level.

And you also cannot ignore that this has been a horrible match up for Amanda Anisimova the last two times she has faced Simona Halep and that could make a big difference in this Quarter Final match.

I do have a lot of admiration for the quality that Amanda Anisimova can produce on a tennis court on any surface, but Simona Halep is playing like she has something to prove and I think she is able to break down the Anisimova game in the same way she has the last two times they have played one another.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz-Rafael Nadal Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 47-45, - 1.68 Units (184 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Euro 2020 Semi Final Picks 2021 (July 6th-7th)

We are down to the final four at the delayed Euro 2020 Finals and all four teams remaining have been one of the 'hosts' at the tournament.

I do think it has underlined the difficulty for those teams that have travelled from day one of the tournament and it may be something that gives England the edge even if all four Semi Finalists are heading to London after Quarter Final wins littered around Europe.

Hosting both Semi Finals and the Final is huge for England though and many believe 'it's coming home', although I think Italy, Spain and Denmark will all be heading into these remaining ties filled with much belief of their own.

Hopefully we have three fun matches left to watch before the attention will soon turn to the World Cup that begins in less than eighteen months time.

Tuesday 6th July

Italy vs Spain Pick: The last time Italy played at Wembley Stadium they produced their worst performance of the Euro 2020 Finals when narrowly getting past Austria having needed Extra Time to beat the underdog. They were much better in their win over Belgium in Munich, but Roberto Mancini will return to England with his players knowing they can't have another sub-par performance in London if they are going to progress to the Final of Euro 2020.

It has been a remarkable turnaround from Italy who have been courageous going forward but without losing their strong defensive identity. Belgium created chances, but Italy held firm in their Quarter Final win and they are now coming up against a Spain team who have been inconsistent in the final third.

Spain are coming back from St Petersburg where they needed Penalties to see off Switzerland, but it was another match in which loose finishing threatened to cost them. This is a team that has looked good going forward until the final shot/pass and that kind of level is not going to be good enough to beat Italy.

Luis Enrique will know that, but his Spain team are still in the tournament and surpassing most expectations by reaching the Semi Final. They have largely been in control defensively, but Spain make too many mistakes and a high pressing Italy team is likely going to be in a position to turn the ball over and cause massive problems for the Spanish.

If Italy can get Spain chasing the fixture, it could be a match in which the counter attack is hugely effective and I do think Italy are the better team.

However, Spain can play their part in the fixture with their strong attacking approach and I would not be surprised if it is similarly open as the Belgium-Italy Quarter Final was a few days ago.

The longer trip Spain have been on and the emotional match they were a part of may ultimately cost them though and I think Italy will likely win a high-scoring game.

Wednesday 7th July

England vs Denmark Pick: Both England and Denmark would have welcomed being in the weaker half of the Knock Out draw and I think both teams have played well enough in their wins over the last ten days to give themselves a lot of confidence.

England have beaten Germany and Ukraine in the last two Rounds and have yet to concede a goal in the tournament and hosting the Semi Final will surely give them a real advantage through the remainder of the tournament. Earlier on they were being criticised for a lack of goals, but England have scored 6 goals in their Knock Out wins and Harry Kane is back amongst the goals.

Gareth Southgate will be confident, but England are also under some pressure to deliver a first major international tournament since 1966.

That is a far longer wait than Denmark have had who won the 1992 European Championships and looked like real dark horses in this tournament. They have only lost 4 of their last 33 games and 3 of those came against Belgium, while the other to Finland was in extraordinary circumstances after Christian Eriksen's collapse and all of the worry that his team-mates had surrounding that moment.

It might have become a rallying moment for Denmark though and the team have won 3 games in a row while scoring 10 goals in those wins.

This isn't just a fairytale for Denmark though and I think there was a genuine feeling they could have a big tournament before a ball was kicked. A good manager and a team that is greater than the sum of its parts could not be underestimated and Denmark have played really well in the tournament to feel like they can upset the odds here.

They have done it before- it isn't that long ago since Denmark took four points from England in the Nations League, although the win at Wembley Stadium came after the hosts had been reduced to ten and then nine men. Even then it was a tight victory for Denmark and the game in Copenhagen ended goalless which suggests we could see some nervous moments when the teams clash in a much bigger situation in the Euro 2020 Semi Final on Wednesday.

While England deserve their spot as favourites and especially with Denmark travelling to London from Baku after their Quarter Final win, I do think the Danes can make things very difficult. They have the size to cope with the set pieces and Denmark have some real pace and quality in the final third which will make them dangerous.

My feeling is that both managers are going to urge a touch of caution despite the goals each team have been scoring in the Knock Out Rounds and we could see something similar to the two Nations League meetings. A single goal was scored across two matches and even that was through a Penalty and my feeling is that both England and Denmark have played well enough defensively to see at least one clean sheet produced in this Semi Final.

An early goal will change the whole picture, but I think this will be the tighter of the two to be played and backing one, or both, to fail to hit the back of the net is the play.

MY PICKS: Italy-Spain Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)

England-Denmark Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Quarter Final: 2-2, + 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 6.25% Yield)

Last 16: 2-6, - 8.30 Units (16 Units Staked, - 51.88% Yield)

Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)

Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)

Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (July 6th)

I spent Monday at Wimbledon and the short turnaround from the Fourth Round matches being completed and the Women's Quarter Final matches being played on Tuesday means I have had to wait for the markets to be put together.

I will place my Tennis Picks here for Day 8 at the 2021 tournament, but I should have a fuller thread with reasons for my selections in the Day 9 thread which will cover the Men's Quarter Final matches.

MY PICKS: Viktorija Golubic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 57-43, + 16.54 Units (200 Units Staked, + 8.27% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 6 Picks 2019 (July 6th)

It might not have been the kind of day I would have wanted on Day 5 at Wimbledon, but it could have been much worse so I am happy to get through with the selections as they did.

The Third Round is completed on Saturday and below you can see my Tennis Picks for the day as well as the updated record from the tournament.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Lucas Pouille: After a surprise return to the clay courts which ended with a run to the French Open Semi Final has seen Roger Federer head into his favourite grass court season with plenty of confidence. Yet another title was won in Halle to keep the positive vibes going and barring a blip in the opening match against Lloyd Harris, Roger Federer has been very strong through the first couple of Rounds at the tournament.

The standard of opponent definitely takes a big step up for Federer in the Third Round after wins over Harris and Jay Clarke. Now he has to take on Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has beaten Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam in the past, although beating Federer here would surpass that victory in terms of the best Pouille has had in his career.

So far it has been very good for Pouille in SW19 with comfortable wins over both Richard Gasquet and Gregoire Berrere. The key for Pouille to come through his matches as well as he has is because of the strong returning that he has produced in the two Rounds at Wimbledon, but this is a level that you have to think will be hard for Pouille to maintain considering his history on the grass courts.

Even in the lead up to Wimbledon Lucas Pouille had been struggling on the return aspect of his game and now he has to face a dominant server in Roger Federer. While I have mentioned the Federer return game is declining, his numbers are still significantly better than Pouille's and Federer has looked strong all around in the two wins produced here.

If Pouille serves as well as he can then this could be a difficult match for Federer, but I can't ignore the fact that the Frenchman's numbers take a steep decline whenever he faces top 20 Ranked players. Mentally he can be tough and fight through even when not having his way in those matches, but Pouille has held in 75% of his service games played on the grass against the top players on the Tour.

Their sole previous meeting on the Tour came on the very quick courts of the Paris Masters back in 2014. That is largely irrelevant towards this match, but I do think Pouille will struggle to get much joy out of the Federer serve as he failed to do back in October 2014.

This is a big number for Roger Federer to cover, but he looks in confident mood and I would expect him to have the majority of break points in the match. If Lucas Pouille brings his A plus game it will be tough for Federer to cover, but I think the eight time Wimbledon Champion will win one set with a couple of breaks of serve which should set him up for the cover.


Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: In previous years the small grass court portion of the Tour was not a time that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman really appreciated. His poor record on the surface might have had something to do with the mindset, but he is one match away from making the second week at Wimbledon this year and he has surpassed his previous best of a Second Round run at SW19.

He has produced two relatively straight-forward wins to reach the Third Round and they have both looked pretty impressive on paper. Matthew Ebden has enjoyed playing on the grass throughout his career, while Dominik Koepfer has had a good run on the surface in 2019, but neither threatened Schwartzman who has dropped just a single set so far in the tournament.

However the Argentinian is now going up against Matteo Berrettini who continues to enjoy a stellar year on the Tour which has moved him up to 20th in the World Rankings. Improved results have seen the confidence flowing from Berrettini and he headed into Wimbledon having won the title in Stuttgart and reached the Semi Final in Halle on the grass over the last month.

The numbers have really been eye-opening from the Italian who held 98% of his service games played on the grass in 2019 before arriving at Wimbledon. Even here Berrettini has only been broken three times and his strong serving is opening up the rest of his game as he has also dropped just a single set in the first two Rounds.

That side of Berrettini's game is going to be tested by Schwartzman who has a very good return and also a huge game around that which can put opponents under pressure. In the lead up events Schwartzman had broken in 25% of return games played and he has continued to put players under pressure at Wimbledon and this is going to be a key to the match.

If Berrettini is able to keep a leash on Schwartzman by banging down the big serves and getting away some first strike tennis, I think he will be very difficult to beat. The Schwartzman serve has been working well so far in 2019 on his worst surface, but I think it is a vulnerable shot that Berrettini will be able to attack with success if his own serve is working to the level it has been.

It may take four sets, but I think Berrettini is still going to have enough to cover this mark with my feeling that his serve is the difference maker on the day. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is someone I have a lot of respect for considering how much he extracts from himself, but I think this surface should favour Berrettini and the Italian is playing at a pretty high level going into the match.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Rafael Nadal over 36.5 games: There was already some frustration with the Wimbledon Seeding system felt by Rafael Nadal when he was knocked down to the Number 3 Seed despite being the World Number 2. That frustration would have only been doubled down after the Spaniard saw the draw in front of him and there is little doubt this feels like arguably the toughest first week Nadal would have had at a Grand Slam since reaching the top 10 of the World Rankings.

A First Round win over Yuichi Sugita was against an opponent who has had some strong successes on the grass and who had come through three Qualifiers to build confidence. In the Second Round Rafael Nadal had to overcome Nick Kyrgios who has a huge game tailor made for the grass courts and also was a match that came with a lot of interest for off court issues the two players have had with each other.

You have to credit Nadal for getting out of those two matches with the single set dropped, but things continue to be difficult for him. In order to reach the second week at Wimbledon, Nadal will now have to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, another player that is further down the World Rankings than he should be and one who is very, very comfortable on the grass courts.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has made light work of his first two opponents at Wimbledon and that is going to be a boost for the Frenchman's current World Number 72 spot in the Rankings. He will certainly want more and a player who has come from 2-0 down to beat Roger Federer in five sets on Centre Court before can't be underestimated, even if the feeling is that Rafael Nadal will have a little too much energy for him.

Much is going to depend on how well Tsonga is able to serve- we saw in the last Round that Nick Kyrgios was able to keep Nadal at bay with a huge serving day, although like the Australian, I do think the Tsonga return is going to be the weakness that ultimately prevents him earning the upset.

Their sole grass court meeting came in 2011 and it was Tsonga who came from a set behind to beat Nadal at Queens Club in London. In general the Frenchman has perhaps not been able to get enough out of his serve with less than 80% of service games being held against Nadal in their eleven previous matches on the Tour, although Tsonga has won four of those eleven matches which is not a bad record against someone as good as Nadal.

Rafael Nadal has been serving very well on the grass courts which does restrict the chance of seeing an upset in this one as far as I am concerned. However I do think Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can be competitive through the first couple of sets and he can serve well enough to perhaps even steal a set like Kyrgios did in the last Round.

With that in mind my selection here is backing at least thirty-seven games needing to be played. The Frenchman did take a set off of Roger Federer in Halle and I think I will look for the total games line to be beaten.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Steve Johnson: In the early Rounds of a Grand Slam you really want to make as serene progress as possible so you are not expending too much energy before the really big matches arrive in the second week of the tournament. Over the years Kei Nishikori has perhaps been guilty of being dragged into tougher matches than he should have been which has prevented him having enough to challenge the top names later in the Slams, but so far this week the Japanese star has been very comfortable.

Straight sets wins over Thiago Monteiro and Cameron Norrie are exactly what Nishikori would have wanted and he has yet to be truly pushed in SW19. It will perhaps make Nishikori feel a little more comfortable on the grass courts considering his worst Slam results have been at Wimbledon with only a single Quarter Final appearance to his name.

I would have to think Nishikori is feeling good about his chances of progressing to the Fourth Round when he faces American Steve Johnson who has lost all four previous matches against the World Number 7. After coming through the First Round in straight sets, Steve Johnson needed five sets to overcome Alex De Minaur in the Second Round and it has to be said that he was a fortunate winner on the day.

Johnson has to make use of that, but this is a tough match up for him as he has managed to hold 74% of his service games against Kei Nishikori, but the latter is holding 95% of his own service games. That is a huge difference that has led to Nishikori winning those matches relatively comfortably, although they are meeting for the first time in well over three years.

The Steve Johnson serve is still a very big weapon for him on the grass courts which may give him a chance in this one. When the American serves well he can be very difficult to hold back, but I do think it will be difficult for Johnson if he is showing off too many second serves or not able to win his points within the first three or four shots.

With the way Nishikori has been serving so far over the last few days and his previous performances against Johnson I do think he is going to have too much for him. I don't think the sets will be uncompetitive considering how well Steve Johnson can serve when at his best, but I do worry for the American that he could perhaps fall away if he is a couple of sets behind. With the potential fatigue building up as rallies go long, I will look for Nishikori to eventually do enough to cover what is a big looking number on paper.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Rafael Nadal Over 36.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa-Dan Evans Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qiang Wang @ 2.37 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 35-27, + 10.54 Units (124 Units Staked, + 8.5% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 5 Picks 2018 (July 6th)

This has been a bit of a trying week all around and that has meant my Wimbledon Picks threads have been very short compared to other Grand Slam tournaments during the season.

I am hopeful of getting fuller analysis out in the days ahead, but it's not easy with the other things going on in my life at the moment.

As long as I keep picking winners I won't mind though even if I have had a couple of tougher days in the office.


Like I have said all week I am going to have some analysis below where possible and then adding the full Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of the thread.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Asking Roger Federer to cover big numbers can be something of a difficulty when you consider some of the issues he has had on the return of serve. It hasn't prevented him from winning multiple Grand Slam titles since the beginning of the 2017 season but it does raise some questions about the ability to cover the big numbers at these Grand Slam events.

With that in mind you have to take note that Federer has won both matches at Wimbledon very comfortably and managed to cover a handicap of one game higher than this one in each of those wins. He made a fast start to the win over Dusan Lajovic, but Federer left it late to cover against Lukas Lacko after running through the third set 6-1 after a couple of tight first two sets.

You also have to wonder how much Jan-Lennard Struff has left in the tank having needed to come from 2-0 down in sets in each of his two wins so far at Wimbledon. The serve is a big weapon for the German, but you wouldn't have fancied his chances much in either matches played having shown no form at all in Stuttgart and Halle.

Confidence will have been given a boost by the successes had by Struff in those wins over Leonardo Mayer and Ivo Karlovic, but the energy level is not going to be very high after the effort put into turning those matches around. At least in the First Round Struff was able to run through the final set, but against Karlovic he needed twenty-four games in the final set and I think Federer will have a chance to pick the bones here.

Their previous two matches have been tight affairs though, including at the Australian Open back in January and that does raise some doubts about how easily Federer can win this match. The Struff serve can be a huge part of the German's game and if he is firing he will be very difficult to break, but I think Federer is going to get enough balls back in play and wear down an opponent who has played so much tennis in the first four days in SW19.

I think Federer will have the break point chances to at least cover for a third straight match in a row in this tournament and I am going to back him to do that against a tired opponent who could fall away.


Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev: This has to be one of the more interesting matches set to be played on Friday in the Third Round as two players who are very competent on the grass courts meet.

There is a definite feeling that Daniil Medvedev is a top 10 player in the making, but the young man has had a difficult time back on the grass over the last month. This is a surface on which he has thrived in the last couple of years and the loss of form meant he was a big underdog to get past Halle Champion Borna Coric in the First Round.

Medvedev had a sudden return to form in that match though and he has produced a couple of really quality looking wins this week which makes him very dangerous. The winner of this match could face Roger Federer on Manic Monday which should only offer more motivation, but Medvedev will have to respect the challenge that Adrian Mannarino can bring on the grass courts.

The Frenchman reached the Final in Antalya in the days before Wimbledon was due to start and he has long been a very competent grass court player. There does look to be a real decline in his play which can't be ignored as Mannarino is over 30 years old, but the success in Antalya coupled with two decent wins in the main draw here should mean he is about as confident as he could be for this match.

In all honesty I think Medvedev's wins have been the better looking on paper, but I am going to lean towards Mannarino who has beaten this opponent in both previous career meetings on the Tour. One of those wins came a couple of years ago on the grass in Hertogenbosch, and I also think Mannarino had been showing the better form heading into Wimbledon which may give him a narrow edge in this match.

It could be the match to see on Friday in the men's draw that has been set at the time of writing, but I am going to back the veteran to edge out the youngster in this one. The Frenchman is the narrow underdog to do that and that looks a tempting enough prospect to back him here.


Dennis Novak-Milos Raonic over 34.5 games: John Millman is going to be kicking himself that he didn't find a way to beat Milos Raonic in the Second Round having had a number of tie-breakers to try and get past the Canadian. Ultimately it was Raonic who won 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 and he progresses to another Third Round at Wimbledon.

There are still some question marks about how healthy Raonic is feeling and I think that is the main reason he is almost flying under the radar at Wimbledon despite being a recent Finalist here. He pulled out in Queens before a match against Feliciano Lopez, but the expectation is that Raonic will still have too much for his opponent in this Third Round match.

Dennis Novak has only ever played in the main draw of one previous Grand Slam and to say his grass court experience prior to this year was limited would be an understatement. However the Austrian decided to give the Qualifiers a go and he has made it through three matches there before winning a couple in the main draw including the upset of Lucas Pouille in the last Round.

Novak was up 2-0 in sets against the Frenchman before seeing him off in five sets and I do wonder if that is going to have an impact in this match. The emotions of beating a top 20 player for the first time after being crushed by Grigor Dimitrov at the Australian Open will be tough for Novak to deal with, but he has been playing well enough to come into this match with some belief.

That may be enough for him to challenge Raonic although Novak won't have faced too many servers as fierce as the one the Canadian brings to the court. It will be all about how down Novak gets if he is unable to get too much of a racquet onto the serves, but his own has been working well enough to think he can push Raonic more than the layers imagine.

The first five setter and the emotion of a big win does go against Novak, but I think he has the momentum and confidence to take on a player who is perhaps not feeling at 100%. There is the obvious danger of a player trying to recover to play another match after the biggest win on their career, but I think Novak will be able to force a couple of tie-breakers and taking one of those will give him every chance of helping the two players surpass this number of total games.


Sam Querrey-Gael Monfils over 40.5 games: There are a couple of players in the draw that are going to be favoured convincingly at this stage of the tournament and one of those is Sam Querrey. He has had some huge success in the Grand Slams in the last twelve months and has the kind of grass court pedigree that not many would really want to take on in the tournament.

One of those that may be less concerned is Gael Monfils who has had one quality win already at Wimbledon when easing past Richard Gasquet in the First Round. His own grass court ability is pretty decent, but it is the wins he has had over Querrey in the past which will give the Frenchman the belief he can win a tough looking Third Round match.

Both players will believe their return game is good enough to win a match like this but it has all the hallmarks of being a tight affair and I would imagine it goes at least four sets.

Querrey and Monfils possess two serves that should be very effective on the grass courts and I do think there will be enough holds to produce a couple of tie-breakers. We do need at least four sets to cover the total games line from the off, but I think the way both Querrey and Monfils have been playing there is every chance of that happening.

I do think this is going to be a tight match and my lean is towards Querrey when it comes to a winning player. However I think it is right to keep things simple here and look for at least four sets to be needed which should mean this total games number is surpassed.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Dennis Novak-Milos Raonic Over 34.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Querrey-Gael Monfils Over 40.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-21, + 0.92 Units (86 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2017 (July 6th)

There are always question marks around the weather in London when we get around to Wimbledon, despite being in the height of the summer months, but the weather issues this year are not the ones we have usually dealt with.

Instead of the rain delays, the sun has been shining the and the temperatures have been soaring which makes this first week of the tournament very important for the contenders. You simply don't want to waste unnecessary energy out on the courts in the early stages of a Slam, but especially not when the heat is as draining as it looks to be for the remaining days this week.

Things should cool down next week, but for now the players have to cope with some difficult conditions out on the courts.

Jack Sock-Sebastian Ofner over 3.5 sets: This is the first appearance on the main Tour for Sebastian Ofner and the young Austrian has to be credited for coming through the Qualifiers and then dismantling clay court specialist Thomaz Bellucci in the First Round. The level of competition for Ofner is taking another couple of steps in a tougher direction when he faces Jack Sock in the Second Round, but there are elements of his game that have to be liked.

To win the match is a big ask for Ofner, but I do think he is capable of giving Sock something to think about despite the clear gap in the experience category. Sock is someone who is hoping to really make a step up in his Singles performances, but this has been an up and down season for him.

His lack of grass court tennis this past month is an obvious concern and he was pushed by another Qualifier in the First Round when Sock overcame Christian Garin narrowly. The serve is going to be a tough one to break but I do think Ofner can create some chances with the way he has been returning in his four grass court matches, albeit against players not quite of this level.

It also should be noted that Sock has rarely won matches at Wimbledon despite his strong serving numbers and that has a lot to do with some tough draws and poor returning numbers. Breaks have not been easy to come by and even in the matches he has won, Sock has a tendency to drop a set with recovery of breaks against him proving to be difficult for him.

Sock has played four Qualifiers at Grand Slams before and he has dropped a set in each of those including in the First Round here. Sebastian Ofner's numbers suggest he can do the same with strong returns likely giving him a few opportunities to break serve, but overall you would think the American will prove too strong. However, backing at least four sets to be contested between these two players looks a decent price and one I will back.

Dudi Sela-John Isner over 3.5 sets: Like for many players lower down the Rankings, this has proved to be a really difficult match up for Dudi Sela when facing the big serving John Isner. Unlike the top players, the ones lower down to tend to have a hard time finding the best way to get the Isner serve back in play and extract mistakes, while their own games are not watertight enough to really stick with him for the long haul.

That is a generalisation of players lower down the World Rankings anyway, but Sela has lost all four matches against Isner and this is a big test for him having needed five sets to come through his First Round match.

At least they were not long five sets and this isn't going to be a match that is gruelling from a physical perspective in the heat of the day. Sela has to take some confidence from the fact he has won a Challenger title on the grass in the warm up for Wimbledon and he reached the Quarter Final of another event, while there have been signs that Isner has perhaps lost a little around the court.

The raw numbers are still very impressive on serve for Isner, which will be the last thing to really deteriorate for the big man, but he is holding slightly less this year than he has been in the last three years. Isner's performances on the grass over the last month have been worrying on serve, while his return has really been impacted too as he may feel under more pressure to push for those breaks.

Sela may not be the man to expose those issues by surprising Isner in this Second Round match as he battles the mental demons of past losses to Isner. However he may be able to take a set off of Isner as he has in half their previous meetings and I'd be stunned if Sela is able to win this one in straight sets even with Isner's slow down in mind so backing at least four sets to be competed looks to be the call from this match too.

Mischa Zverev-Mikhail Kukushkin over 3.5 sets: This is another match where I feel the favourite is likely to progress, but I am not sure they are going to do that in the straight-forward manner that the majority of the layers feel. Mischa Zverev is the favourite, which is understandable considering how he has played on the grass courts, but he is far from a sure thing who is being asked to cover plenty of games in this one.

The lefty serve is a dangerous weapon on the grass and Zverev is backing it up with solid volleying at the net. While he did have a strong win in the First Round over Bernard Tomic, the body language and subsequent interview with the Australian highlighted how little interest Tomic seemed to have in the match.

Zverev is still a player who has had limited success at Wimbledon in the past and there are still some real questions about his return game on this surface. Tie-breakers could be in play considering he has been serving well enough, but Mikhail Kukushkin is a talented player who can perform pretty well on the faster surfaces.

He can be hard to trust considering Kukushkin has fallen off the main Tour for the most part, but he had a solid win in the First Round here. His returning in that match was solid enough although this is a much different test returning the Zverev serve.

The courts do seem to be playing a little slower which means Kukushkin should be able to take some swings back at Zverev and test out his volleying, but a decent serving display will give him a chance to steal a set at least. It could be a match where a few solid returns sees Kukushkin break through Zverev in this one, although the German should still have too much and earn the win.

Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: After moving through to the Second Round thanks to Alexandr Dolgopolov's retirement, Roger Federer will be hoping to complete this match on Centre Court on Thursday. This looks another match that will be controlled by Federer as he looks to join the likes of Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal in easing through to the Third Round here at Wimbledon.

This has been a stunning year for Federer who continues as the favourite to win the title at Wimbledon and he looks to have a clear advantage over Dusan Lajovic. While Federer is in love with the grass, Lajovic is a player who will be looking forward to the European clay court tournaments which will be played later this month.

No one is suggesting Lajovic won't give this a full effort as he tries to upset the Federer bandwagon, but the numbers suggest he will struggle to stay with the former World Number 1. Lajovic hasn't played badly on the grass this past couple of weeks, but he has yet to face someone as strong as Federer and his returning numbers have been relatively poor and slightly down on his career numbers on the grass.

The serve isn't a bad shot, but Federer will feel he can blunt the first serve and then out-rally Lajovic for much of the match and I do like him covering this number of games, despite the little room for error he has. The Serb has been beaten really comfortably when previously playing against top five opponents and one of the big issues has been the lack of protection of his own serve.

I am not anticipating Lajovic to have a host of chances to break the Federer serve, but I can see the latter being in position to do so plenty of times during this match. He can win a couple of sets with a couple of breaks of serve which should be enough to see him cover this number in a 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 win.

Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: If you look at the Seedings at Wimbledon you would think Dominic Thiem is potentially a threat to win the title, but the Austrian has still not quite got to grips with how to perform on the grass courts. Poor performances in the last month won't have improved the confidence, although Thiem's win over Vasek Pospisil in the First Round was a much more positive performance.

It has been the return where Thiem has really struggled on the grass with his big swings perhaps finding the timing much harder to come by on a surface where the ball can skid. Bad bounces and getting low is tough when winding up as much as Thiem does, but he really got a hold of the Pospisil serve for a very positive win.

In this match you would think Thiem can get more of a rhythm on the return against a Gilles Simon serve which isn't going to whizz past anyone on any court. The Frenchman definitely feels like a fading force on the Tour with the percentage of holds falling in each of the past three seasons.

The bigger worry has to be the reduced break points being converted and the percentage of returning points decreasing as that has been a strength for Simon over the years and a key to his successes. Now he is finding it harder to recover breaks of serve and that has seen him lose plenty of matches and Simon's numbers on the grass have to be a real worry for him.

Simon did have a solid First Round win against an overmatched opponent, but this is a huge increase in level for him to face. Thiem has dominated their head to head and I think he will put plenty of pressure on Simon with his own serve and work his way to enough break points to produce a solid 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 kind of win as he covers this number of games.

David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Steve Darcis: When you speak about former top ten players who are fading away from the limelight, David Ferrer has to be right up there amongst the names at the top of the list. However he turned back the clock with an impressive First Round win over Richard Gasquet and I think that could spark one more decent run in the Grand Slams for the veteran Spaniard.

It might be seen as a risky call to back a player like Ferrer who has shown regression in both the service and return departments in 2017 and who hasn't won back to back matches in an event more than a handful of times this season. You can't argue that is the case, but Ferrer returned effectively in the First Round and I do think the opponent is important in this case.

Steve Darcis has stunned Rafael Nadal here at Wimbledon before so he clearly is someone who can win on the grass. This is another veteran whose numbers over the last month have not been as effective as they have been in the past on this surface and the serve is not one that will overawe Ferrer.

With his own issues on the return, the match up feels like a good one for Ferrer compared to the kind of matches he could have faced. The two wins Darcis has had on the grass courts have been very tight ones which could have easily gone the other way and I think Ferrer will enjoy this match and still has enough in the tank to win.

I would imagine there are quite a few breaks in this match, but I would think Ferrer can win the majority of those in a competitive match. That could see him come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 win and I will look for him to cover this number.

Tomas Berdych - 6.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the reasons that Tomas Berdych is not performing to the same standard as in the past is the regression he has made when it comes to the return of serve. That has continued to be a problem for him during the last month on the grass courts and there wasn't a lot of improvement in the numbers when it came to the First Round win over Jeremy Chardy.

The Berdych serve does continue to put him in a position to win matches though and I think the match up is a decent one for the Czech player. The overall return numbers for Ryan Harrison haven't been bad in a 2017 season where the American has made improvements in leaps and bounds, but he has struggled with it on the grass courts and the Berdych serve should make sure the higher Ranked player doesn't give too much away.

Like many Americans, Harrison has a big first serve that he loves to back up with a powerful forehand and that has been a good play for him on the hard courts. However the skid of the grass courts means he isn't always in position to hit the one-two punch on the grass and I think that is a reason his hold numbers are considerably weaker on this surface.

Those numbers look less impressive when seeing how Harrison has performed on the main Tour grass court matches and even less so when taking on a top 20 player. The head to head with Berdych has seen Harrison lose twice against him over the last twelve months including a straight sets loss at the Australian Open back in January.

With a number of games like this one, you have to be concerned with the Berdych return numbers, but I think Harrison will offer up some chances as he is frustrated in finding the timing disrupted by the grass. As long as Berdych can just play those situations with enough solid tennis, I think he can come through this match 6-3, 7-6, 6-3.

Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Kyle Edmund: While the likes of Andy Murray and Johanna Konta are carrying the weight of a nation on their shoulders, Kyle Edmund will still be feeling some pressure to perform in front of the home fans at Wimbledon. He secured his first win in the main draw in SW19 in the First Round against a fellow Brit, but Edmund has a big challenge in front of him when he faces Gael Monfils in the Second Round.

In saying that, Monfils has yet to really produce the consistency on the grass that you would imagine he could. This is a player with a very effective serve and Monfils has very good movement around the court and a solid return of serve, although the criticism is that he will allow others to dictate play which is never a good idea on the grass.

The last month has seen Monfils play some solid tennis on the grass courts including reaching a Final in Eastbourne, and he perhaps comes into Wimbledon healthier than he has been in years. Over the last month Monfils has shown a little more behind the serve and has been more effective on the return which makes him a very dangerous opponent on for Edmund on Thursday.

Edmund's preparation for Wimbledon wasn't the best with two losses at Queens and in Eastbourne, but he produced some solid numbers in those defeats. The return continues to be a weakness for the British player, but he was serving well which could mean he can give Monfils some problems, although Edmund's struggles at Wimbledon and his performances against top 20 players are negatives for him going into this match.

There is also a concern about his mental strength when things start to turn against him and I think those factors add up to a tough match for him. Monfils might not be at his best on the grass, but he has produced four solid wins over the last two weeks and I think the Frenchman can come through a tough match with a 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 kind of win.

Yuichi Sugita - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Over the years Adrian Mannarino has been an under-rated performer on the grass courts, but I think the layers have got it right putting him down as the underdog in this Second Round match. That has much to do with the fact that Yuichi Sugita is arguably playing the best tennis of his career at this level.

Winning the Surbiton Challenger on the grass would have been impressive enough, but Sugita has backed that by winning the tournament in Antalya prior to Wimbledon. He was in fantastic form in Turkey where the courts are similar to the ones he will see at Wimbledon, and Sugita actually beat Mannarino in the Final to take the title home.

A solid First Round win here and the fact he has beaten Mannarino twice on the grass should give Sugita real confidence for this match. The serve has been working really well and Sugita is also making use of his returning numbers to earn breaks of serve on the grass and I think he should perhaps be a slightly bigger favourite.

His opponent hasn't got bad numbers, and Mannarino is certainly someone who does enjoy playing on this surface. Mannarino has plenty of wins over the last month which will give him a lot of confidence too, but the Final in Antalya gives a pretty good indication of how this match will go.

I think there will be breaks of serve for both players, but I think Sugita has been showing a little more in both her service and return games. That could be the difference in a tight match against Mannarino and I will look for Sugita to cover this number.

Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: The narrative from Angelique Kerber's First Round win over Irina Falconi was that the World Number 1 came through narrowly. However the raw numbers don't say the same thing and I think the German can back up a decent enough performance with another in the Second Round when facing Kirsten Flipkens.

This is far from an easy match for Kerber though as Flipkens is someone who is very comfortable on the grass courts and who has played really well at Wimbledon before. Flipkens has played well on the grass courts over the last month and she certainly returns well enough to give Kerber a few questions to answer during the course of this match.

However this is a big step up for Flipkens compared with the majority of players she has been facing on the grass courts in 2017. Playing top ten Ranked players has been a tough task for Flipkens whose own serve is one that can be attacked and she has lost her last six matches against those players and all by a margin of at least six games.

Kerber is arguably not playing up to the level of a top ten player, but she has had a couple of morale boosting wins in Eastbourne last week and played well enough in the First Round here when nerves would have played a part. The slight dip in the numbers has been a problem for Kerber in 2017 as she has been playing with little room for a slip in her standards, but she continues to hold a solid return which should be able to get after the Flipkens service games.

It is a big number of games being asked to cover, but Kerber has played well enough over the last two weeks to beat a player who has struggled to match the intensity of the top ten players she has been playing.

Lucie Safarova - 4.5 games v Shelby Rogers: I wanted to see how Lucie Safarova responded to her injury issue in Birmingham which forced her out of her Semi Final with Petra Kvitova. The Czech left hander had been playing well on the grass and producing the wins prior to that and her First Round win over Oceane Dodin was very impressive.

Taking part in the Doubles as well as the Singles suggests Safarova is feeling confident that the injury is behind her and this is a player who can be very dangerous on the grass courts. The serve proves to be a huge weapon for her and it should certainly be important for Safarova against Shelby Rogers who has not been able to get her return game going on the grass courts over the last few weeks.

No one will criticise Rogers for losses to Donna Vekic and Sabine Lisicki, but I do think the American will struggle against Safarova who can build pressure with her serve to take into the return games. However I can't ignore the way Rogers has been able to serve on this surface with a heavy shot able to set up short balls which are much easier to put away than trying to find the depth off returns.

The second serve can be attacked though and that is where I think Safarova will be able to make hay in this Second Round match.

Rogers does have a good record against left-handed players which makes her dangerous, but I think she may struggle to get into the Safarova service games. Safarova has been returning well enough to get some joy from the Rogers serve and I think she will work her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win in this one.

Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Christina McHale: There are questions for both Agnieszka Radwanska and Christina McHale to answer ahead of this Second Round match with both having some difficult times on the grass over the last month. Both have had solid results in the past on this surface and showed they can produce their best tennis on the grass, but injuries and a loss of form have hurt them.

2017 has been a really rough season for Radwanska with injury and poor performances coupled together for some poor results. The move to the grass was expected to help, but she was beaten by Lauren Davis in Eastbourne, while her win in the First Round came against fellow veteran Jelena Jankovic who is on the slide in her own career.

The numbers were decent from Radwanska and she is facing an opponent in McHale who was almost upset by a British Wild Card in the First Round. The American had to pull out of Eastbourne with an injury and she has seen her numbers slip from last season.

The same can be said for Radwanska though and I think those two factors together should mean Radwanska is still a little too good defensively for the McHale game. That has happened in the past as the Pole has won all five previous matches between these two and has won all ten sets played.

Only once has McHale won more than three games in a set, although that happened in their sole match in 2017. Even then she was beaten by Radwanska by a margin of six games and that has been the case in all five previous matches between these players. McHale has lost seven in a row against top ten players and I think Radwanska may just be able to battle through with a 6-3, 6-3 win in this one.

Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 games v Alison Riske: When this match was put together, I thought Kristina Mladenovic was the more likely winner but I was expecting her to be asked to cover around 4.5 games which would have been a little tough to back. Instead I was surprised to see her being asked to cover a game fewer and this looks like a number she can manage against Alison Riske who is someone who can play wonderfully on the grass.

Both players came through with an impressive win in the First Round but against overmatched opponents who were not really in the form to challenge them. That won't be the case on Thursday with both Mladenovic and Riske playing some good tennis over the last month.

You have to give the Frenchwoman the edge straight away holding the mental advantage of winning all four previous matches against Riske including on the grass in 2015. The latter has also suffered a couple of comfortable losses to some big hitting opponents on the grass already in 2017 and I think Mladenovic is playing well enough to do something similar.

While both players have produced solid serving numbers on this surface, the key difference may be the little more consistent Mladenovic is behind her serve. I can't ignore how Riske had some difficulties against the likes of Garbine Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova over the last month and Mladenovic is similar in her ability to put together a number of strong serving games.

Riske is also likely to throw in a couple of poor service games and Mladenovic can capitalise with the way she has been returning over the last few weeks. It will be tough at times because Riske is very comfortable on the grass courts, but I think Mladenovic will prove a little too good over the course of this match as she wins this one 6-3, 6-4.

Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: The grass courts have proven to be the best surface for Tsvetana Pironkova who helped me with a winner in the First Round. I do think the layers are factoring in how well Pironkova has played on the grass courts in the past, as well as how well she has played over the last few weeks on this surface, but they may have gone too far here.

That is because Caroline Wozniacki has been playing really well on the grass too and only a moody performance saw her being pushed to a third set in a First Round win. The Dane didn't seem that happy with things until finally cracking Timea Babos in the third set and she has played well enough after reaching the Final in Eastbourne last week.

The return game of both Wozniacki and Pironkova have been a strength for them over the last few weeks on this surface, but I think the Wozniacki serve is a touch under-rated. Both players will have their issues when it comes to protecting the serve considering how aggressively they have been returning, but Wozniacki has been able to defend well enough to turn things around when needing to.

It is that defensive aspect of her game that may just blunt Pironkova's aggression for long enough to turn points around and I think Wozniacki will come through this tough test. She has dominated Pironkova in the past, although the last of their head to head matches was five years ago, while Pironkova has struggled to stay with the top ten players she has played in recent matches against those top names.

That may happen here as she is worn down in a three set match and I will look for Wozniacki to just pull away at the end to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Jack Sock-Sebastian Ofner Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dudi Sela-John Isner Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Mischa Zverev-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tomas Berdych - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yuichi Sugita - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lucie Safarova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Caroline Woznaicki - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 17-19-3, - 1.72 Units (66 Units Staked, - 2.61% Yield)