Wednesday, 6 July 2022
Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2022 (July 6th)
That was a tough day to absorb.
There were moments when it felt like I would have at least a couple of winners, but things went badly wrong in the middle of matches and I have to take it on the chin.
Nick Kyrgios - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: News broke on Tuesday that Nick Kyrgios is going to have to deal with assault charges back in his native Australia next month, but I am not sure he is the kind of player that will allow that to be a distraction with a huge opportunity in front of him.
For all the obvious talent, Nick Kyrgios has often been criticised for not taking his tennis seriously and that may be underlined by the fact he is only going to be playing in his third ever Grand Slam Quarter Final. At 27 years old and with a growing threat from an emerging group of players on the ATP Tour coupled with the old guard still playing as well as ever, Nick Kyrgios may not have many better opportunities to try and reach a Semi Final in a major.
He could not have asked for a better opponent in all honesty, although Cristian Garin deserves his respect for taking advantage of Matteo Berrettini's absence from the draw. The Chilean may not have had the best season, but showed plenty of grit and heart in coming from 2-0 down to beat Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round.
However, you do have to wonder how much energy that has sapped from the tank, both emotionally and physically, while Cristian Garin is playing in his first ever Quarter Final at this level. At least he is facing Nick Kyrgios who has needed five sets twice already in this tournament and who can go walkabout within matches.
In saying that, the big problem for Cristian Garin may be the vulnerability of the serve and especially against someone who can serve as dominantly as Nick Kyrgios can on his best day. The Australian has only dropped serve five times in the tournament and admitted to 'tanking' away one of those games in the last Round to give opponent Brandon Nakashima a full sense of confidence ahead of the deciding set.
That attitude does make it difficult to trust Nick Kyrgios to cover big spreads like this one, but I am expecting him to have a lot more joy against the Cristian Garin serve than he did in the last Round. It also has to be expected that Kyrgios came off the boil a little after all of the emotions and controversy surrounding his Third Round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he should be much more ready for this match.
Nick Kyrgios is not the most efficient of return players, but he has been playing well enough on that side of his tennis over the last month. He has also found plenty of breaks of serve in this tournament and I expect his grass court tennis to be that much bigger than compatriot Alex De Minuar was able to produce in his loss to Cristian Garin and it should see Nick Kyrgios reach the Semi Final of a Slam for the first time.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: Winning the title at Wimbledon in 2019 was a huge achievement for Simona Halep, but first Covid and then injury prevented the former World Number 1 from ever returning as the defending Champion. While she has not been defeated at Wimbledon after winning the title, Simona Halep was not even offered the chance to open Centre Court on Day 2 of the tournament, a spot reserved for the defending Champion and with Ashleigh Barty retired and absent from the event.
I can't imagine that has been a real motivation factor for Simona Halep, but she has blitzed her way through to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and at this stage I think it is going to take a special performance to knock her off.
We have already seen a couple of those from Amanda Anisimova and the young American is looking to finally begin fulfilling her potential and win a major title. There is so much to like about the Amanda Anisimova game, but she has not really followed up the run to the French Open Semi Final in 2019 as she would have liked.
This is only her second Quarter Final at the Grand Slam level and the American had not even made the second week of a major since that performance in Paris in 2019. Things have changed this season with back to back Fourth Round runs at the Australian Open and French Open, but Amanda Anisimova has gone one better this time around and there will be a confidence about her game.
Amanda Anisimova actually upset the defending French Open Champion, Simona Halep, in that run to the Semi Final in 2019, but the Romanian former World Number 1 has clearly taken offence to that and beaten Anisimova very comfortably in the last two matches between the pair. That includes a humbling 6/2, 6/1 win over Amanda Anisimova in Bad Homberg on the grass courts in the build to Wimbledon last month and Simona Halep has given up just five games in the last four sets between the two.
I won't ignore how well Amanda Anisimova has played to reach the Quarter Final, but Simona Halep is also playing at an exceptional level.
And you also cannot ignore that this has been a horrible match up for Amanda Anisimova the last two times she has faced Simona Halep and that could make a big difference in this Quarter Final match.
I do have a lot of admiration for the quality that Amanda Anisimova can produce on a tennis court on any surface, but Simona Halep is playing like she has something to prove and I think she is able to break down the Anisimova game in the same way she has the last two times they have played one another.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz-Rafael Nadal Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon 2022: 47-45, - 1.68 Units (184 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)