Monday, 4 July 2022
Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2022 (July 4th)
The first Middle Sunday of play is in the history books and we are going to have the Quarter Final line up completed at Wimbledon on Day 8 of the tournament.
Alex De Minaur - 6.5 games v Cristian Garin: The run to the Fourth Round has been much more unexpected for Cristian Garin than it has for Alex De Minaur and I do think the Australian is going to be the one to earn a maiden Quarter Final at Wimbledon.
Alex De Minaur has previously reached that stage at the US Open so may feel more experienced, while there is no doubting that he is the more comfortable on the grass courts of the two players. His wins in the first three Rounds have come behind some strong numbers, although there is still an inefficiency when it comes to playing the big points that is likely going to prevent Alex De Minuar from replicating Lleyton Hewitt and winning the title here.
It has been a problem for him in playing the break points in the warm up events for Wimbledon and he has needed a lot more break point chances than he is giving away before service games are dropped. That has to be a concern whenever you back Alex De Minuar to cover a big number on the handicap, but I do think he has an additional mental edge with the head to head against this opponent.
He has yet to drop a set against Cristian Garin who has surprisingly made his way through the Wimbledon draw. The Chilean did reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2021, but he had shown little form over the last month on the grass courts and it has also been a difficult season in general for Cristian Garin which made it very difficult to imagine him still being around in the second week of the tournament.
Cristian Garin has been serving well in the tournament and that has to be respected, while the return game has also been very efficient with breaks being produced from the chances being created. While has broken six times in each of his three matches here, Cristian Garin has only created sixteen break points for his twelve breaks of serve in the last two matches and those tight margins could go against him in this Fourth Round match.
In the three previous matches between Alex De Minaur and Cristian Garin, the former has won all three and has yet to drop a set. Alex De Minaur beat Cristian Garin at the US Open in 2019 and will have an additional mental edge in this match having beaten Garin in Eastbourne on the grass courts a couple of weeks ago.
The higher Ranked player has had a significant edge on the serving numbers in the head to head and I think that will show up in this Fourth Round match. While Alex De Minaur has held in 87% of service games played against Cristian Garin, the latter has only managed to do the same in 57% of service games.
Last month in Eastbourne, Alex De Minaur won 49% of return points played in their grass match up and I do think the Australian will prove too good as he moves through to the Quarter Final behind a relatively straight-forward win.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Botic Van de Zandschlup: For the second Grand Slam tournament in succession, Rafael Nadal and Botic Van de Zandschlup will be facing one another.
After a relatively comfortable win for Rafael Nadal on the clay courts of Roland Garros, Botic Van de Zandschlup has to feel the grass courts level the playing field somewhat. He might have felt much more confident if this match had been played before the last Round when Rafael Nadal looked close to his very best grass court form in beating Lorenzo Sonego, but even with that in mind the Queens Semi Finalist has to be feeling good about his tennis.
Botic Van de Zandschlup managed to do enough to contain Richard Gasquet in the Third Round having won a pivotal third set on the tie-breaker, but there will be a slight concern that he lost his way with his serve in that match. The Dutchman saw his serve broken four times by a veteran of the Tour who has slipped from the standards he once produced, and that is a concern ahead of a match with someone like Rafael Nadal who put together his best win of the tournament in the last Round as he builds to peak in time for the Final on Sunday.
In previous Wimbledon campaigns, we have seen a player being able to hit through the Rafael Nadal defences on the grass courts and someone like Botic Van de Zandschlup certainly has a chance of doing that. The big question is whether he can do that for long enough to upset the former Champion and I am not entirely convinced that can be done.
Rafael Nadal will be the first to admit that he has not played as well as he would have liked in the first two Rounds, but the much improved performance in the Third Round is encouraging. That came against an opponent who would have looked to be very aggressive and put the pressure on Rafael Nadal, but Lorenzo Sonego did not enjoy much success.
The Nadal serve looks to be improving as the tournament progresses and he has been returning well enough to believe he will be able to get into the Botic Van de Zandschlup service games as he did when they met on the clay courts of Paris.
The numbers of the two players look to suggest that Rafael Nadal is improving in each passing Round and things are getting more and more challenging for Botic Van de Zandschlup. I think that will show up in this one with Rafael Nadal likely to create enough break points to position himself to cover this handicap mark as he returns to the Wimbledon Quarter Final and keep alive the dreams of a calendar Grand Slam.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Martic + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon 2022: 43-38, + 4.84 Units (162 Units Staked, + 2.99% Yield)