By the time people in the United Kingdom wake up for Day 13 of the French Open Tennis tournament they will know who is going to be governing the country in the coming years.
Once that has sunk in, tennis fans from the UK will be turning their attention to Andy Murray's Semi Final match against Stan Wawrinka as those two players meet for the second season in succession in the French Open Semi Finals.
That looks a very good match on paper, but the second Semi Final may be even better when Rafael Nadal takes on Dominic Thiem for what feels like their weekly battle over the last few weeks on the clay courts.
The Day 12 Tennis Picks ended up 1-1 as Jelena Ostapenko earned the upset, but Simona Halep won a match in which she was unable to cover.
The Final on Saturday looks like it may be a very good one if Ostapenko continues hitting the ball as well as she has been, although Halep has the consistency and defensive work on the ground that can bamboozle anyone.
For now I am concentrating on the two men's Semi Final matches which are played on Friday afternoon in the improving Paris weather.
Andy Murray-Stan Wawrinka over 40.5 total games: This is the second French Open in a row that Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka are going to meet for a chance to play in the French Open Final on Sunday. In 2016 Murray came in as a narrow favourite to beat Wawrinka but the prices have been flipped the other way around this time.
I can see why that has happened as Wawrinka has yet to drop a set here in Paris and demolished Marin Cilic for the loss of just seven games in the Quarter Final. The Swiss player also won the title in Geneva a few days before the French Open began which will have grabbed the attention of the oddsmakers.
On the other hand Murray has had a couple of difficult moments through this tournament as he has needed four sets to come through three different Rounds and twice has dropped the first set. With his poor form prior to the French Open, you can put the factors together to figure out why Wawrinka comes into this one as the narrow favourite.
In the hours after this match had been put together, I was leaning towards Wawrinka to win the match and I am sure many will back him to do so. Before last year's loss in the Semi Final, Wawrinka had beaten Murray in three consecutive matches and he had also won all three previous matches on the clay courts, but now it is Murray who has won the last couple of matches between these players.
It does feel that the match is going to come down to how well Wawrinka is playing. He has produced some top tennis at the business end of Grand Slams and Wawrinka is someone who has displayed the power to penetrate top defensive players like Murray and Novak Djokovic and for long enough to beat them over the best of five sets format.
Wawrinka's form over the last couple of weeks suggests he is going to be able to do that against Murray, although there have been some more difficult moments than his straight sets wins have highlighted. Yes he destroyed Cilic, but someone like Murray could be more of an issue like Gael Monfils proved to be and Wawrinka needed two really tight sets to move into a 2-0 lead against the Frenchman.
Murray can still defend well enough to extract mistakes from the Wawrinka game and my main feeling is that we are going to see at least four sets played. Unlike the issues Fabio Fognini and Gael Monfils had when in a position to win sets, I think Murray's experience will help him come through those moments to not allow Wawrinka back in.
On the other hand Wawrinka's level of form suggests he will be able to hurt Murray like others have over the course of this tournament and so backing this total games to be surpassed is my feeling from the match.
Last year their four set match ended with just 36 games in total being played, but I think we can get a little more out of these players in their current form. A couple of 6-2 sets meant the games finished under the total that has been set for this match, but I am expecting we will see at least one tie-breaker in this Semi Final in what should be a close match.
I will be looking for the first two sets to be split between two quality players, with the pivotal third set likely to provide the winner. This year I think the sets might be more competitive than they turned out last year with the way both Murray and Wawrinka have been playing and I will back the total games to be surpassed and hope Wawrinka isn't in the destructive mood he was in the Quarter Final.
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Dominic Thiem: Three weeks ago, Dominic Thiem became the first, and only, player to beat Rafael Nadal during this clay court season. After that win, Thiem won just one game in two sets against Novak Djokovic as he struggled to deal with the emotion of the victory and subsequently fell apart against the former World Number 1.
That does raise some questions as to how Thiem will react to arguably the best win of his career when crushing Novak Djokovic in straight sets for the loss of just nine games. Thiem himself admitted the difficulty in winning a Grand Slam title when you have to take on someone like Nadal in the Semi Final after beating Djokovic in the Quarter Final, but he shouldn't be fatigued.
I think there is another difference too.
Thiem had never beaten Djokovic prior to the win in the Quarter Final here and I do wonder if that played a part in his capitulation against him in Rome. On the other hand Thiem has won his last match against Nadal to give himself confidence, while he also beat Nadal on the clay courts in South America in 2016.
The Austrian has been hitting the ball so well that he will give himself some chances in this one, but you can't ignore how well Nadal has been playing. The 'King of Clay' was on the way to another routine win on Wednesday before Pablo Carreno Busta retired in their Quarter Final and Nadal has yet to drop more than eight games in any match he has played so far in the French Open.
Nadal has looked brilliant so far in the event, but not many will come to the court like Thiem with the belief he has that he can win this match. He has been getting closer and closer in their three matches on the clay courts over the last two months and broke through with the victory in Rome after a fairly easy defeat in Monte Carlo was followed by a tight two set defeat in Barcelona.
That belief and confidence from those matches will certainly see Thiem have the most success that anyone has against Nadal over the last two weeks. I can see him being good enough to take a set, but I am not convinced Thiem will be able to stay with Nadal in this best of five set match.
As well as he played in beating Nadal in Rome, this time Thiem is coming off an emotional win and his opponent is far better rested than he was in Rome when the entire clay court season's fatigue landed on Nadal. The first two sets are crucial for Thiem and I think he will get to 1-1 there, but I can see Nadal having more energy in the tank which can help him come past Thiem in four sets.
The layers believe another routine Nadal win is in the offing, but I think Thiem's returning statistics here in Paris are too hard to ignore and he will have enough to take a set. I will have a small interest on Nadal winning this one in four sets at a decent price.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray-Stan Wawrinka Over 40.5 Total Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
French Open Update: 57-38, + 31.54 Units (189 Units Staked, + 16.69% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Men's Semi Finals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Men's Semi Finals. Show all posts
Thursday, 8 June 2017
Friday, 4 July 2014
Wimbledon Day 11 Picks 2014- Men's Semi Finals (July 4th)
The women's Final was decided on Thursday after Petra Kvitova moved through for a chance to win her second Wimbledon title and Eugenie Bouchard got over the hump and reached her first Grand Slam Final after two Semi Finals at these events already in 2014.
That has the makings of a top Final, although one that could be played under the roof on Centre Court if the rain that is expected throughout Saturday actually arrives. However, before that, the men get a chance to set the final two players once the Semi Finals are played on Friday and both should be fascinating matches.
It is a shame that the second Semi Final is likely to coincide with the France versus Germany World Cup Quarter Final, although the schedule makers must have realised the Novak Djokovic-Grigor Dimitrov match is the one that the TV companies would want sole focus for.
That is not to say that the Milos Raonic-Roger Federer match isn't 'interesting', but it is clear that Dimitrov could be the new face of men's tennis and taking on the World Number 2 is the kind of match that tennis needs to show off as much as possible.
With any sport, getting a strong exposure is the only way it will thrive and going up against the World Cup Quarter Finals means it is tough to earn column inches- however, this match should intrigue enough people while waiting for the World Cup matches to begin and I am expecting a show from Dimitrov and Djokovic, two players that may be competing for Grand Slams along with Rafael Nadal over the next eighteen months.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Grigor Dimitrov: There is a real confidence exuding from Grigor Dimitrov at the moment, although I don't think he will be concerning himself with the mental games being played by Novak Djokovic who described the Bulgarian as the 'man to beat'.
The win over Andy Murray was very impressive, even if there are reports coming out about something that potentially upset the defending Wimbledon Champion ahead of that match. It was a flat performance from Murray and perhaps has diluted the strength of the Dimitrov win somewhat, even if he was brutal in the dismantling of the Brit on Centre Court which left the audience in a deathly silence.
This time, I would expect Dimitrov to get the majority of the support from the crowd after his breaks of serve were barely applauded on Wednesday, although he is in a very strong place and I don't think it bothers him either way.
Dimitrov has won the title at Queens and is serving effectively, while also being a decent returner and I expect him to give Djokovic more problems than when they met at the French Open last year. He has to try and take advantage of any tiredness that Djokovic may feel after beating Marin Cilic in five sets in his own Quarter Final, even if the sets were generally fairly quick.
I just haven't been totally convinced by Djokovic to this point as he has suffered some lapses in concentration and cuts a more frustrated figure than I have seen in the last couple of years. Djokovic has been a consistent player at Wimbledon, even if he has found someone a little too tough more often than not and I do think he is going to give Dimitrov all he can handle.
It is a fascinating match between these two players and I do think we are going to see a hugely entertaining Semi Final- however, my overriding feeling is that Djokovic is still going to be a little too good over a best of five set match, even on his least favourite surface, and I will have a small interest in the World Number 2 winning in four sets.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: The second Semi Final doesn't have the same appeal to the casual fans of tennis even if the seventeen time Grand Slam Champion Roger Federer is involved, because Milos Raonic doesn't have the same high-profile as someone like Grigor Dimitrov.
However, Raonic has been the young player that has really been making a move up the World Rankings and will always be a danger with the serve that he possesses. There is clearly the desire to improve himself too with more forays into the net and an aggressive style of play on the court, but it remains a surprise that the Canadian has reached his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final on the grass courts of Wimbledon.
He hasn't shown an ability to really get to grips with the grass in the past, despite the serve, but Raonic has been in good form over the last two weeks and clearly feels his aim for the tournament isn't close to being realised unless he wins this match.
You cannot doubt that Raonic is a huge threat moving forward if he continues to serve with the size he has been in this tournament, but Roger Federer has seen it all in his time and has four previous wins over Raonic. Those wins and the mental strength of being able to keep focused and not become overly frustrated when serves whistle past him gives Federer the ideal chance to move into the Final in a bid to win an eighteenth Grand Slam title and one that I personally didn't expect him to get to.
Federer has taken advantage of the draw this week as well as the scheduling of Quarter Final opponent Stan Wawrinka and I do think he will get enough balls back in play to eventually extract errors from Raonic. The slice has been effective and could be even more in this match, while Federer will get to the net and test the Canadian's ability to constantly pass him.
There is bound to be at least one, possibly two, tie-breakers in this one with the way Raonic has been serving, but Federer will know he is rarely going to see the body serve and may be able to swing through enough shots to win this match 76, 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 35-28, + 16.60 Units (118 Units Staked, + 14.07% Yield)
That has the makings of a top Final, although one that could be played under the roof on Centre Court if the rain that is expected throughout Saturday actually arrives. However, before that, the men get a chance to set the final two players once the Semi Finals are played on Friday and both should be fascinating matches.
It is a shame that the second Semi Final is likely to coincide with the France versus Germany World Cup Quarter Final, although the schedule makers must have realised the Novak Djokovic-Grigor Dimitrov match is the one that the TV companies would want sole focus for.
That is not to say that the Milos Raonic-Roger Federer match isn't 'interesting', but it is clear that Dimitrov could be the new face of men's tennis and taking on the World Number 2 is the kind of match that tennis needs to show off as much as possible.
With any sport, getting a strong exposure is the only way it will thrive and going up against the World Cup Quarter Finals means it is tough to earn column inches- however, this match should intrigue enough people while waiting for the World Cup matches to begin and I am expecting a show from Dimitrov and Djokovic, two players that may be competing for Grand Slams along with Rafael Nadal over the next eighteen months.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Grigor Dimitrov: There is a real confidence exuding from Grigor Dimitrov at the moment, although I don't think he will be concerning himself with the mental games being played by Novak Djokovic who described the Bulgarian as the 'man to beat'.
The win over Andy Murray was very impressive, even if there are reports coming out about something that potentially upset the defending Wimbledon Champion ahead of that match. It was a flat performance from Murray and perhaps has diluted the strength of the Dimitrov win somewhat, even if he was brutal in the dismantling of the Brit on Centre Court which left the audience in a deathly silence.
This time, I would expect Dimitrov to get the majority of the support from the crowd after his breaks of serve were barely applauded on Wednesday, although he is in a very strong place and I don't think it bothers him either way.
Dimitrov has won the title at Queens and is serving effectively, while also being a decent returner and I expect him to give Djokovic more problems than when they met at the French Open last year. He has to try and take advantage of any tiredness that Djokovic may feel after beating Marin Cilic in five sets in his own Quarter Final, even if the sets were generally fairly quick.
I just haven't been totally convinced by Djokovic to this point as he has suffered some lapses in concentration and cuts a more frustrated figure than I have seen in the last couple of years. Djokovic has been a consistent player at Wimbledon, even if he has found someone a little too tough more often than not and I do think he is going to give Dimitrov all he can handle.
It is a fascinating match between these two players and I do think we are going to see a hugely entertaining Semi Final- however, my overriding feeling is that Djokovic is still going to be a little too good over a best of five set match, even on his least favourite surface, and I will have a small interest in the World Number 2 winning in four sets.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: The second Semi Final doesn't have the same appeal to the casual fans of tennis even if the seventeen time Grand Slam Champion Roger Federer is involved, because Milos Raonic doesn't have the same high-profile as someone like Grigor Dimitrov.
However, Raonic has been the young player that has really been making a move up the World Rankings and will always be a danger with the serve that he possesses. There is clearly the desire to improve himself too with more forays into the net and an aggressive style of play on the court, but it remains a surprise that the Canadian has reached his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final on the grass courts of Wimbledon.
He hasn't shown an ability to really get to grips with the grass in the past, despite the serve, but Raonic has been in good form over the last two weeks and clearly feels his aim for the tournament isn't close to being realised unless he wins this match.
You cannot doubt that Raonic is a huge threat moving forward if he continues to serve with the size he has been in this tournament, but Roger Federer has seen it all in his time and has four previous wins over Raonic. Those wins and the mental strength of being able to keep focused and not become overly frustrated when serves whistle past him gives Federer the ideal chance to move into the Final in a bid to win an eighteenth Grand Slam title and one that I personally didn't expect him to get to.
Federer has taken advantage of the draw this week as well as the scheduling of Quarter Final opponent Stan Wawrinka and I do think he will get enough balls back in play to eventually extract errors from Raonic. The slice has been effective and could be even more in this match, while Federer will get to the net and test the Canadian's ability to constantly pass him.
There is bound to be at least one, possibly two, tie-breakers in this one with the way Raonic has been serving, but Federer will know he is rarely going to see the body serve and may be able to swing through enough shots to win this match 76, 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 35-28, + 16.60 Units (118 Units Staked, + 14.07% Yield)
Friday, 6 June 2014
French Open Day 13 Picks 2014- Men's Semi Finals (June 6th)
Over the last couple of years, the French Open has been a tournament that has proved very successful for the picks but this season is unlikely to follow the same route. I feel very much like Serena Williams in that I have had a decent season to this point of the Tour, but have failed to spark at a Grand Slam where there is more attention and more expectancy from anyone reading these picks.
Thursday's women's Semi Finals proved the same with a couple of points here and there making all the difference in what would have been winning picks and thus ending with two losing picks. It happens during some of the tournaments over the course of a eleven month Tour, but it is a shame that it had to happen during the second Slam of the season.
The two men's Semi Finals look fascinating affairs, especially in light of some of the comments that Ernests Gulbis has made about Novak Djokovic in the recent past. Gulbis is a fascinating character, but he has made his mark on the court with his tennis racquet this week rather than in the media room with his tongue and he is going to very, very confident after some impressive wins behind him.
Rafael Nadal versus Andy Murray is always going to have a lot of attention on the match, especially after their encounter in Rome, but it still looks like being the Final that everyone would have expected through the clay court season.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Ernests Gulbis: Wins over Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, the latter in a thumping manner, will have given Ernests Gulbis so much confidence and he is playing his tennis with a calm demeanour, while harnessing the aggression to the perfect standard on the clay courts.
The title win in Nice has been followed by Gulbis' best run in a Grand Slam, surpassing his Quarter Final appearance here in 2008 which was ironically stopped by the same player he will be facing on Friday.
Novak Djokovic 'might have a different look in his eyes' according to Gulbis, but his eye is only on one prize in this tournament and that is becoming the eighth player to win the career Grand Slam. He has targeted the French Open for a couple of years and Djokovic has been in impressive form through the tournament and has the return game and movement to trouble Gulbis.
On the other hand, I still expect Gulbis to make this a competitive Semi Final with his heavy groundstrokes which should set up chances to break the Djokovic serve, but the Latvian would have to put in some incredible serving if he is to win the match.
The performances against Federer and Berdych raises doubts in the match, but it would be a real surprise if Gulbis has enough to beat Djokovic in the current form of the World Number 2 and this one should see the Serb come through. However, I wouldn't doubt Gulbis digging deep to take a set in a 3-1 loss in the Semi Final but with something to build upon in the remaining months of the season.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Andy Murray: This is a lot of games if you take the performance that Andy Murray produced in Rome into account, but Rafael Nadal's level has certainly improved since then. Nadal has also not spent half as much time on court as he was in that tournament compared to what Murray has had to endure in Roland Garros and the match is being played on the Philippe Chatrier court which is much more like a clay court than the Suzanne Lenglen.
With the temperature expecting to be soaring on Friday, conditions should be perfect for Nadal to take advantage of any fatigue Murray may still be feeling from two tough battles against Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gael Monfils over the last week.
Murray has the returning game and competitive spirit to cause problems for Nadal, even on a clay court, but the Spaniard has been in very good form through the tournament and turned it up another notch after going down by a set against David Ferrer in the last Round.
It would take a gargantuan effort for Murray to knock off Nadal in this Semi Final with the fatigue that he has to be feeling and I think it would be tough to pick himself up if he loses the first set with a straight sets loss the result when he met the Spaniard at the same stage in 2011.
The 61 set Murray won in Rome isn't the sole comfortable set he has had against Nadal on the clay courts with 62 set in Monte Carlo a few years ago also in the books, but the World Number 1 looks a man on a mission and I expect he will find a way to come through with a 64, 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
French Open Update: 26-26, - 0.32 Units (102 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Thursday's women's Semi Finals proved the same with a couple of points here and there making all the difference in what would have been winning picks and thus ending with two losing picks. It happens during some of the tournaments over the course of a eleven month Tour, but it is a shame that it had to happen during the second Slam of the season.
The two men's Semi Finals look fascinating affairs, especially in light of some of the comments that Ernests Gulbis has made about Novak Djokovic in the recent past. Gulbis is a fascinating character, but he has made his mark on the court with his tennis racquet this week rather than in the media room with his tongue and he is going to very, very confident after some impressive wins behind him.
Rafael Nadal versus Andy Murray is always going to have a lot of attention on the match, especially after their encounter in Rome, but it still looks like being the Final that everyone would have expected through the clay court season.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Ernests Gulbis: Wins over Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, the latter in a thumping manner, will have given Ernests Gulbis so much confidence and he is playing his tennis with a calm demeanour, while harnessing the aggression to the perfect standard on the clay courts.
The title win in Nice has been followed by Gulbis' best run in a Grand Slam, surpassing his Quarter Final appearance here in 2008 which was ironically stopped by the same player he will be facing on Friday.
Novak Djokovic 'might have a different look in his eyes' according to Gulbis, but his eye is only on one prize in this tournament and that is becoming the eighth player to win the career Grand Slam. He has targeted the French Open for a couple of years and Djokovic has been in impressive form through the tournament and has the return game and movement to trouble Gulbis.
On the other hand, I still expect Gulbis to make this a competitive Semi Final with his heavy groundstrokes which should set up chances to break the Djokovic serve, but the Latvian would have to put in some incredible serving if he is to win the match.
The performances against Federer and Berdych raises doubts in the match, but it would be a real surprise if Gulbis has enough to beat Djokovic in the current form of the World Number 2 and this one should see the Serb come through. However, I wouldn't doubt Gulbis digging deep to take a set in a 3-1 loss in the Semi Final but with something to build upon in the remaining months of the season.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Andy Murray: This is a lot of games if you take the performance that Andy Murray produced in Rome into account, but Rafael Nadal's level has certainly improved since then. Nadal has also not spent half as much time on court as he was in that tournament compared to what Murray has had to endure in Roland Garros and the match is being played on the Philippe Chatrier court which is much more like a clay court than the Suzanne Lenglen.
With the temperature expecting to be soaring on Friday, conditions should be perfect for Nadal to take advantage of any fatigue Murray may still be feeling from two tough battles against Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gael Monfils over the last week.
Murray has the returning game and competitive spirit to cause problems for Nadal, even on a clay court, but the Spaniard has been in very good form through the tournament and turned it up another notch after going down by a set against David Ferrer in the last Round.
It would take a gargantuan effort for Murray to knock off Nadal in this Semi Final with the fatigue that he has to be feeling and I think it would be tough to pick himself up if he loses the first set with a straight sets loss the result when he met the Spaniard at the same stage in 2011.
The 61 set Murray won in Rome isn't the sole comfortable set he has had against Nadal on the clay courts with 62 set in Monte Carlo a few years ago also in the books, but the World Number 1 looks a man on a mission and I expect he will find a way to come through with a 64, 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
French Open Update: 26-26, - 0.32 Units (102 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Saturday, 7 September 2013
US Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals 2013 (September 7th)
The US Open has reached the business end of the final Grand Slam tournament of the season and we still look on course to see the Final that everyone would have wanted at the start of the event as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal need to win one more match to set that Final.
I was expecting Djokovic to have the more difficult Semi Final today and, while that is still the case in my opinion, I don't think many people would have predicted Stanislas Wawrinka to be the last man standing in the Serb's way for that place in the Final.
This is a big tournament for Djokovic to underline the fact that he is still the World Number 1- even though he won't lose that position as long as he reaches the Final, even a defeat in that match to Rafael Nadal will change the perception of most people as to who the real World Number 1 is.
Nadal is likely to finish the season in the top spot in the Rankings no matter how this tournament ends now as he has no points to defend in the final two months of the season and will be adding points from the World Tour Championships as well as two Masters events in Shanghai and Paris. It has been a fantastic season for the Spaniard since returning to the Tour last February, but both he and Djokovic will be looking for their second Grand Slam title of the season and that will be the most important statistic that either player would like to look back on in 2013.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: The first Semi Final should be a fascinating one to watch as long as Stanislas Wawrinka can bring in the form that saw him push Novak Djokovic all the way at the Australian Open back in January and the form that saw him blitz Andy Murray in the Quarter Final a couple of days ago.
Of course there will be some nerves for the Swiss man as he has never reached this stage of a Grand Slam before and he may also feel there won't be too many more chances for him to reach the Final of a major. Those factors can make a player tight and struggle to find their form, but Wawrinka does have a lot of tools in his game that can cause problems for Djokovic in this one.
Wawrinka has a big serve that can set up points and he is capable of ripping the ball off both wings on the ground, while Djokovic doesn't have a dominating serve himself which should give the Swiss player chances to break. With Djokovic's return game, there are bound to be plenty of breaks of serve in this one, after they combined for 14 breaks of serve in five sets back at the Australian Open.
You have to believe the experience of Djokovic of winning majors will give him the edge in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he drops his second set of the tournament on his way through to the Final.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Richard Gasquet: There is a video on YouTube where you can see Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet taking on one another in an under-14 tournament that Gasquet wins in three sets.
That is about as much success as the Frenchman has had against Nadal with his sole win on the professional circuit coming in their first meeting back in 2003 after Nadal was forced to pull out of the match after the first set.
Rafael Nadal has won 10 straight matches since that match on the Challenger circuit and he has only lost 4 sets in that time and his form during this tournament suggests this will likely end in another straight sets win for the Spaniard.
He has yet to be broken in the tournament and Richard Gasquet has come through two tough five set matches in a row and I can see him losing heart if he doesn't win the first set. If Nadal can take that one, I believe he will be able to move away from Gasquet as the match develops and I expect Nadal to come through with a 64, 62, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 29-36, - 6.22 Units (109 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)
Friday, 5 July 2013
Wimbledon Day 11 Picks 2013- Men's Semi Finals (July 5th)
I'll be out for most of Thursday celebrating my own birthday (not the United States' birthday) so I have started working on the Men's Semi Finals before I know who will be playing in the Women's Final on Saturday.
I know we didn't see the Quarter Final lineup that we expected after the upsets of the first week of the tournament, but the Semi Final has a much more familiar feel for the fans. Outside of Jerzy Janowicz, the other three players that are going to take centre stage on Friday would all have been well supported to make the final four and I am expecting plenty of fascinating tennis.
Andy Murray win 3-1 v Jerzy Janowicz: Not many people will know a lot about the big serving Polish player Jerzy Janowicz, but he looks like a potential Grand Slam danger in the coming years although how he copes with the pressure will be key to this match.
Unlike the likes of Ivo Karlovic, who also possessed a massive serve, Janowicz is capable of backing that up with variation in his shots. He has heavy groundstrokes, but decent touch too and he has a lot more dimensions to his game than solely a serve that can reach the high 130 mph mark.
However, he is playing against one of the best returners in the men's game in the form of Andy Murray who will also be backed by a home crowd and I think the World Number 2 will be able to create enough chances to win this match. Even with that in mind, it is hard to ignore the fact that Janowicz will be able to get through some service games with ease and that will allow him to hit out on the Murray serve, particularly if he sees a lot of second serves.
Tie-breakers against opponents who can serve as well as Janowicz are really tough to predict and that is why I do think the Polish player will find a way to take a set off Murray in this one. He will be confident having beaten Murray at the Paris Masters last October, but nerves could play a part and we have seen his last two opponents create chances on the Janowicz serve.
Janowicz is a big, intimidating player, and the grass suits his game... But he is playing in front of a crowd that will virtually all be pro-Murray in his first Grand Slam Semi Final and I just feel Murray will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.
I don't usually do this, but I also think it would make sense backing Jerzy Janowicz to hit at least 15 aces in the match. The court is playing pretty fast at Wimbledon thanks to the lack of rain and temperatures are going to be high on Friday to make the ball move that much more in this contest.
When these two met in Paris on the indoor courts last October, Janowicz hit 22 aces in three sets against Murray, while he is leading the tournament in that category and is averaging almost 19 aces per match.
Everyone knows what a good returner Murray is, but there will be times the ball fizzes past him and there won't be a lot to do. I am expecting at least four sets in this one, while Ivo Karlovic hit 17 against Murray in the Second Round here last season and I think the Pole is worth backing in this category.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Something has to give in this Semi Final as neither player has dropped a set in the tournament so far and this looks to be a fascinating match to open proceedings on Centre Court.
Novak Djokovic has looked very much a man on a missing in SW19 and apart from a complete lack of intensity to open set two against Tomas Berdych, he has looked very comfortable so far in the tournament. He meets Juan Martin Del Potro who has overcome a knee issue to reach his first Semi Final here and is coming off a very impressive performance when he dispatched David Ferrer in straight sets.
I can see Del Potro having his supporters, but Djokovic is playing at a very high level and I think it will be tough for the Argentine to continue playing at the level he did against Ferrer. He did manage to do that in 2009 to go all the way at the US Open, but the World Number 1 looks a little too strong as far as I am concerned.
I do think Del Potro can steal a set in this one with the way he has been serving and the fact that he did beat Djokovic here in the Bronze Medal match last summer, while he also beat him in three sets at Indian Wells earlier this year. But when it is all said and done, I think Djokovic will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Jerzy Janowicz Over 14.5 Aces @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 21-12, + 18.22 Units (64 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)
I know we didn't see the Quarter Final lineup that we expected after the upsets of the first week of the tournament, but the Semi Final has a much more familiar feel for the fans. Outside of Jerzy Janowicz, the other three players that are going to take centre stage on Friday would all have been well supported to make the final four and I am expecting plenty of fascinating tennis.
Andy Murray win 3-1 v Jerzy Janowicz: Not many people will know a lot about the big serving Polish player Jerzy Janowicz, but he looks like a potential Grand Slam danger in the coming years although how he copes with the pressure will be key to this match.
Unlike the likes of Ivo Karlovic, who also possessed a massive serve, Janowicz is capable of backing that up with variation in his shots. He has heavy groundstrokes, but decent touch too and he has a lot more dimensions to his game than solely a serve that can reach the high 130 mph mark.
However, he is playing against one of the best returners in the men's game in the form of Andy Murray who will also be backed by a home crowd and I think the World Number 2 will be able to create enough chances to win this match. Even with that in mind, it is hard to ignore the fact that Janowicz will be able to get through some service games with ease and that will allow him to hit out on the Murray serve, particularly if he sees a lot of second serves.
Tie-breakers against opponents who can serve as well as Janowicz are really tough to predict and that is why I do think the Polish player will find a way to take a set off Murray in this one. He will be confident having beaten Murray at the Paris Masters last October, but nerves could play a part and we have seen his last two opponents create chances on the Janowicz serve.
Janowicz is a big, intimidating player, and the grass suits his game... But he is playing in front of a crowd that will virtually all be pro-Murray in his first Grand Slam Semi Final and I just feel Murray will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.
I don't usually do this, but I also think it would make sense backing Jerzy Janowicz to hit at least 15 aces in the match. The court is playing pretty fast at Wimbledon thanks to the lack of rain and temperatures are going to be high on Friday to make the ball move that much more in this contest.
When these two met in Paris on the indoor courts last October, Janowicz hit 22 aces in three sets against Murray, while he is leading the tournament in that category and is averaging almost 19 aces per match.
Everyone knows what a good returner Murray is, but there will be times the ball fizzes past him and there won't be a lot to do. I am expecting at least four sets in this one, while Ivo Karlovic hit 17 against Murray in the Second Round here last season and I think the Pole is worth backing in this category.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Something has to give in this Semi Final as neither player has dropped a set in the tournament so far and this looks to be a fascinating match to open proceedings on Centre Court.
Novak Djokovic has looked very much a man on a missing in SW19 and apart from a complete lack of intensity to open set two against Tomas Berdych, he has looked very comfortable so far in the tournament. He meets Juan Martin Del Potro who has overcome a knee issue to reach his first Semi Final here and is coming off a very impressive performance when he dispatched David Ferrer in straight sets.
I can see Del Potro having his supporters, but Djokovic is playing at a very high level and I think it will be tough for the Argentine to continue playing at the level he did against Ferrer. He did manage to do that in 2009 to go all the way at the US Open, but the World Number 1 looks a little too strong as far as I am concerned.
I do think Del Potro can steal a set in this one with the way he has been serving and the fact that he did beat Djokovic here in the Bronze Medal match last summer, while he also beat him in three sets at Indian Wells earlier this year. But when it is all said and done, I think Djokovic will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Jerzy Janowicz Over 14.5 Aces @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 21-12, + 18.22 Units (64 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)
Friday, 7 June 2013
French Open Day 13 Picks 2013 (June 7th)
The Women's Final was set yesterday as Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova moved through to the final match to be played on Saturday, but some may argue that the Final of the Men's event will take place on a Friday this year, not the Sunday.
That is down to the fact that the winner of the Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic Semi Final will be the big favourite to lift the trophy on Sunday and this looks like a Semi Final to be remembered. Both players will feel they have the edge here and there are significant arguments to pick either to win the competition.
I have already picked Novak Djokovic to win the French Open so I am going to leave my fate in the hands of the World Number 1 as I do think he is capable of winning this match. If I hadn't backed him before the tournament had begun, I would still have recommended Djokovic in this match as I think the players are more evenly matched than the odds would suggest.
David Ferrer - 1.5 sets v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: It was a fantastic performance from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga that saw him completely dominate his Quarter Final against Roger Federer, but I expect this one to be a lot tougher for him against the ultimate competitor in David Ferrer.
While Tsonga has reached a Grand Slam Final in the past, there will still be a lot of pressure on him as the French crowd will demand that he has a chance to emulate Yannick Noah's success of 30 years ago. Unfortunately, he is playing an opponent that is very capable on the clay courts and one that won't make the mistakes that Federer was guilty of in the last Round.
David Ferrer has been an improving player in recent years and hasn't shown too many signs of slowing down, but he is no fool either- there is no doubt that this is the best chance he is likely to ever have of reaching his first Grand Slam Final.
The Frenchman definitely has the edge in the match when it comes to serving ability and also the power, but his game is one that Ferrer can negate to some extent as he can force Tsonga to stay out there all day long. The backhand is more consistent on the Spaniard's side of the court, and I do believe the clay will suit Ferrer much more than it does Tsonga.
Even after that impressive win in the Quarter Final, I can't help thinking that Ferrer is going to be too mentally solid and will be able to find a way to break down the Tsonga game. It is likely to go at least four sets, but I do think Ferrer will be the man that progresses to the Final,
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 18-14, + 6.18 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.97% Yield)
That is down to the fact that the winner of the Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic Semi Final will be the big favourite to lift the trophy on Sunday and this looks like a Semi Final to be remembered. Both players will feel they have the edge here and there are significant arguments to pick either to win the competition.
I have already picked Novak Djokovic to win the French Open so I am going to leave my fate in the hands of the World Number 1 as I do think he is capable of winning this match. If I hadn't backed him before the tournament had begun, I would still have recommended Djokovic in this match as I think the players are more evenly matched than the odds would suggest.
David Ferrer - 1.5 sets v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: It was a fantastic performance from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga that saw him completely dominate his Quarter Final against Roger Federer, but I expect this one to be a lot tougher for him against the ultimate competitor in David Ferrer.
While Tsonga has reached a Grand Slam Final in the past, there will still be a lot of pressure on him as the French crowd will demand that he has a chance to emulate Yannick Noah's success of 30 years ago. Unfortunately, he is playing an opponent that is very capable on the clay courts and one that won't make the mistakes that Federer was guilty of in the last Round.
David Ferrer has been an improving player in recent years and hasn't shown too many signs of slowing down, but he is no fool either- there is no doubt that this is the best chance he is likely to ever have of reaching his first Grand Slam Final.
The Frenchman definitely has the edge in the match when it comes to serving ability and also the power, but his game is one that Ferrer can negate to some extent as he can force Tsonga to stay out there all day long. The backhand is more consistent on the Spaniard's side of the court, and I do believe the clay will suit Ferrer much more than it does Tsonga.
Even after that impressive win in the Quarter Final, I can't help thinking that Ferrer is going to be too mentally solid and will be able to find a way to break down the Tsonga game. It is likely to go at least four sets, but I do think Ferrer will be the man that progresses to the Final,
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 18-14, + 6.18 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.97% Yield)
Friday, 29 March 2013
Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 29th)
While I no longer have any interest in the outright market when it comes to the Men's event, I am quite happy to see that my 'boring' picks from the Women's game have paid dividends with both Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova competing in the Final to take place on Saturday.
There are also a couple of decent looking Semi Finals to be played in the Men's tournament today and I do think both will produce some entertaining tennis, although it is clear that Andy Murray is the big favourite to take home the title on Sunday.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have been impressed with Tommy Haas' run here in Miami as he has been playing some very good tennis, but I do believe that run will be ended by David Ferrer in the first of the Semi Finals to be played.
David Ferrer is capable of staying out on court all day and while Haas definitely has the edge when it comes to the backhand stroke, I think the Spaniard can drag him into deep water before putting him away. I also expect Haas will be the one winning 'cheaper' points on his serve, although I don't think Ferrer will be making too many mistakes and that is where I think he can get ahead.
With the movement favouring Ferrer, I think Haas may feel he has to go for more lines on a mental level and that can lead to more unforced errors. The net play will certainly help the German shorten points and put away any chips that Ferrer uses, but it is tough to continue playing that aggressive tennis against a player that can turn defence into attack as effectively as Ferrer can.
It may go three sets, but I expect to see Ferrer in the Final on Sunday possibly after recording a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: It would have taken one more hold of serve from Marin Cilic yesterday to have seen the cover come in, but Andy Murray was returning very effectively and that is a concern for this match.
However, I think Richard Gasquet has been playing some very good tennis this past ten days and I do think he can at least keep this match close. It wouldn't be the first time as Gasquet has found a way to stay with Andy Murray in past matches and has only been seen off when he mentally and physically fatigues as matches progress.
There is no doubt that Gasquet has the talent to take it to the top players, although he has struggled to match the intensity over a best of five set match at Grand Slam level. That is not always the case in the best in three matches where Gasquet can play enough quality tennis to see himself over the line.
I thought Marin Cilic may have been capable of taking a set off of Andy Murray yesterday and I have the same thought about Richard Gasquet in this one. He is certainly capable with the way the Frenchman has played this week, although I do think Murray has his game face on too with the knowledge that he will move up to World Number 2 if he can go on and win this tournament.
My feeling is that this is going to go the distance and I think taking the games with Gasquet looks to be the best call.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-10, + 11.14 Units (52 Units Staked, + 21.42% Yield)
There are also a couple of decent looking Semi Finals to be played in the Men's tournament today and I do think both will produce some entertaining tennis, although it is clear that Andy Murray is the big favourite to take home the title on Sunday.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have been impressed with Tommy Haas' run here in Miami as he has been playing some very good tennis, but I do believe that run will be ended by David Ferrer in the first of the Semi Finals to be played.
David Ferrer is capable of staying out on court all day and while Haas definitely has the edge when it comes to the backhand stroke, I think the Spaniard can drag him into deep water before putting him away. I also expect Haas will be the one winning 'cheaper' points on his serve, although I don't think Ferrer will be making too many mistakes and that is where I think he can get ahead.
With the movement favouring Ferrer, I think Haas may feel he has to go for more lines on a mental level and that can lead to more unforced errors. The net play will certainly help the German shorten points and put away any chips that Ferrer uses, but it is tough to continue playing that aggressive tennis against a player that can turn defence into attack as effectively as Ferrer can.
It may go three sets, but I expect to see Ferrer in the Final on Sunday possibly after recording a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: It would have taken one more hold of serve from Marin Cilic yesterday to have seen the cover come in, but Andy Murray was returning very effectively and that is a concern for this match.
However, I think Richard Gasquet has been playing some very good tennis this past ten days and I do think he can at least keep this match close. It wouldn't be the first time as Gasquet has found a way to stay with Andy Murray in past matches and has only been seen off when he mentally and physically fatigues as matches progress.
There is no doubt that Gasquet has the talent to take it to the top players, although he has struggled to match the intensity over a best of five set match at Grand Slam level. That is not always the case in the best in three matches where Gasquet can play enough quality tennis to see himself over the line.
I thought Marin Cilic may have been capable of taking a set off of Andy Murray yesterday and I have the same thought about Richard Gasquet in this one. He is certainly capable with the way the Frenchman has played this week, although I do think Murray has his game face on too with the knowledge that he will move up to World Number 2 if he can go on and win this tournament.
My feeling is that this is going to go the distance and I think taking the games with Gasquet looks to be the best call.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-10, + 11.14 Units (52 Units Staked, + 21.42% Yield)
Saturday, 8 September 2012
US Open Day 13 Picks (September 8th)
I haven't made picks from the US Open for a couple of days as I had some outrights that meant I didn't want to double dip and that has turned out to be the right decision all in all. David Ferrer managed to come through the third quarter after a titanic battle with Janko Tipsarevic, while Serena Williams is in the Final of the Women's tournament.
It wasn't all good news as Roger Federer exited to Tomas Berdych at the Quarter Final stage and it is going to be my worst result at a Grand Slam tournament in 2012. You have to love Berdych too- I have kept him onside in every Slam this year, only for him to disappoint once too often that I ignored him this time... His best performance of the year!
We have now reached 'Super Saturday' which means both Men's Semi Finals and the Women's Final will be played today, although I still don't think it is fair on the second Men's Semi as the winner gets less time to recover than the winner of the first Semi. That is the case in every Grand Slam, but none of the others expect a player to play the Final the next day and that is where the issue arises.
However, that is not going to be resolved until the tournament next year so the players have to deal with the hand given to them today.
Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games: My first pick is going to be the under total games in the Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Semi Final which will be going on at 4pm today (British time).
A lot of people will be calling how close this match could be and I tend to agree to a certain extent as I am not 100% sure which of these players is going to come through. Tomas Berdych has a strong record against Andy Murray which includes winning their only battle at Slam level back in the French Open 2010 and he has won 4 of their last 5 matches against one another.
However, I like the under for the total games as a four set match today is unlikely to go over this total and there is every chance that this match will be completed, one way or the other, in four or less sets.
The layers clearly fancy tie-breakers and tight sets, but only 3 of the 17 sets they have completed have needed a tie-break to separate them, while only another 2 have got to 5-5.
2 tie-breakers would be a killer unless there is a straight sets winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winning players comes through 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 which would finish under 41.5 games by 0.5 games.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: I really took some time before making this pick, but that was mainly down to the amount of respect I have for David Ferrer and what he does on a tennis court year in and year out.
He has taken full advantage of Rafael Nadal's absence in this tournament and will also be leading Spain in their Davis Cup Semi Final next week against the United States, but this may be a step too far, even for him.
Novak Djokovic has the mix of power and consistency that should cause Ferrer plenty of problems and I am unsure how much the Spaniard will have left in the tank after the emotional and physical battle in the Quarter Final against Janko Tipsarevic.
Ferrer doesn't have the 'get out of jail' serve and will have to earn every point, something that is bound to tell at one point with a 30 year old.
The Spaniard has now lost 10 sets in a row against Djokovic and while there are a few tight sets that could have gone his way, there are a number of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 sets in favour of the World Number 2 and defending Champion and I think he will prove too strong again.
I won't be surprised to see the match start off close, but eventually Djokovic prevailing 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It must be strange for the World Number 1, Victoria Azarenka, to come into a match as the complete underdog, but that is the case as she faces her nemesis Serena Williams who has a 9-1 head to head record against her.
Azarenka also came through the tougher Semi Final yesterday and everything here is pointing to a Serena win.
It was the same situation last season as Serena faced Sam Stosur in the Final, but she came unglued on that occasion and I think that will inspire her to better things this time around.
The spread looks big, but Serena has covered it against Azarenka in 4 of their previous 5 meetings going back to Toronto last season and Williams has too much in her game for Azarenka.
I am expecting Williams to win in straight sets and I also believe she is good enough to earn a couple of breaks of serve in one of the sets which should leave her in the position to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
US Open Update: 12-15, - 2.94 Units (50 Units Staked)
It wasn't all good news as Roger Federer exited to Tomas Berdych at the Quarter Final stage and it is going to be my worst result at a Grand Slam tournament in 2012. You have to love Berdych too- I have kept him onside in every Slam this year, only for him to disappoint once too often that I ignored him this time... His best performance of the year!
We have now reached 'Super Saturday' which means both Men's Semi Finals and the Women's Final will be played today, although I still don't think it is fair on the second Men's Semi as the winner gets less time to recover than the winner of the first Semi. That is the case in every Grand Slam, but none of the others expect a player to play the Final the next day and that is where the issue arises.
However, that is not going to be resolved until the tournament next year so the players have to deal with the hand given to them today.
Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games: My first pick is going to be the under total games in the Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Semi Final which will be going on at 4pm today (British time).
A lot of people will be calling how close this match could be and I tend to agree to a certain extent as I am not 100% sure which of these players is going to come through. Tomas Berdych has a strong record against Andy Murray which includes winning their only battle at Slam level back in the French Open 2010 and he has won 4 of their last 5 matches against one another.
However, I like the under for the total games as a four set match today is unlikely to go over this total and there is every chance that this match will be completed, one way or the other, in four or less sets.
The layers clearly fancy tie-breakers and tight sets, but only 3 of the 17 sets they have completed have needed a tie-break to separate them, while only another 2 have got to 5-5.
2 tie-breakers would be a killer unless there is a straight sets winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winning players comes through 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 which would finish under 41.5 games by 0.5 games.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: I really took some time before making this pick, but that was mainly down to the amount of respect I have for David Ferrer and what he does on a tennis court year in and year out.
He has taken full advantage of Rafael Nadal's absence in this tournament and will also be leading Spain in their Davis Cup Semi Final next week against the United States, but this may be a step too far, even for him.
Novak Djokovic has the mix of power and consistency that should cause Ferrer plenty of problems and I am unsure how much the Spaniard will have left in the tank after the emotional and physical battle in the Quarter Final against Janko Tipsarevic.
Ferrer doesn't have the 'get out of jail' serve and will have to earn every point, something that is bound to tell at one point with a 30 year old.
The Spaniard has now lost 10 sets in a row against Djokovic and while there are a few tight sets that could have gone his way, there are a number of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 sets in favour of the World Number 2 and defending Champion and I think he will prove too strong again.
I won't be surprised to see the match start off close, but eventually Djokovic prevailing 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It must be strange for the World Number 1, Victoria Azarenka, to come into a match as the complete underdog, but that is the case as she faces her nemesis Serena Williams who has a 9-1 head to head record against her.
Azarenka also came through the tougher Semi Final yesterday and everything here is pointing to a Serena win.
It was the same situation last season as Serena faced Sam Stosur in the Final, but she came unglued on that occasion and I think that will inspire her to better things this time around.
The spread looks big, but Serena has covered it against Azarenka in 4 of their previous 5 meetings going back to Toronto last season and Williams has too much in her game for Azarenka.
I am expecting Williams to win in straight sets and I also believe she is good enough to earn a couple of breaks of serve in one of the sets which should leave her in the position to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
US Open Update: 12-15, - 2.94 Units (50 Units Staked)
Friday, 3 August 2012
Tennis Picks August 3rd (London Olympics Day 7 and Washington)
We have reached the Semi Finals of the Olympic Games meaning the winners will now be guaranteed a Medal from the Games. I am also still in a solid position of having my two main picks from the outrights still in the competition, although both are going to need to win a couple of tough matches if they are to win the tournament.
Roger Federer meets Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow and is now just two matches away from fulfilling his dream of winning the Gold Medal and completing his career 'Golden Slam'.
In the Women's draw, Serena Williams remains the big favourite, but she meets Victoria Azarenka and is likely going to have to beat Maria Sharapova in the Final if she is to replicate her elder sister Venus and win the Gold Medal in the singles event.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro came awful close to beating Roger Federer for the first time in six meetings when he led the Swiss man by 2 sets to love at the French Open a couple of months ago, but he failed to get the job done and has now lost all five matches against Federer in 2012.
The grass courts should favour the Federer game even more and I think he has the mental edge in this match and that is why I believe he will likely earn a break in each set to cover the spread.
Del Potro has quietly moved through the draw this week, but grass is not his favourite surface and he is still to beat one of the top guys since coming back from his injury that ruled him out for around a year back in 2010.
Since beating Federer in London at the End of Year Championships in 2009, Del Potro has been comfortably beaten by the World Number 1 in four of their six matches. That makes it tough mentally for him, especially on the grass courts, and I wouldn't be surprised if Federer is a 6-3, 6-4 winner.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams looks the pick of the Women still in this tournament and she has been serving wonderfully well this week and I think that will make the difference, again, when she plays Victoria Azarenka in this Semi Final.
I heard Virginia Wade said something along the lines of 'Azarenka is a lot better than Serena when it comes to playing off the ground' but I think she is one of the worst 'experts' out there and clearly watches around five minutes of tennis per year.
Anyone who has seen their two matches this year and their two matches last year will know that Serena has looked the dominant player in most aspects and has been the player dictating the points with her power.
Williams also looks the more likely to break serve and I think she is going to win with a little more room to spare than she did at Wimbledon last month. On that occasion, Serena would have covered this spread but got a little nervous before coming through 6-3, 7-6 to reach the Final.
The previous three matches shows that Serena has more joy when it comes to breaking serve and she has won all of those comfortably, while Williams also recorded a 6-2, 6-3 win over Azarenka here at Wimbledon in 2009.
With the way Williams is playing at the moment and the confidence she is displaying, I think she wins this one 6-3, 6-4 and will be a little less nervous when she approaches the winning line than when she got to that stage at Wimbledon last month and that should enable the cover.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.60 Units (29 Units Staked)
Roger Federer meets Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow and is now just two matches away from fulfilling his dream of winning the Gold Medal and completing his career 'Golden Slam'.
In the Women's draw, Serena Williams remains the big favourite, but she meets Victoria Azarenka and is likely going to have to beat Maria Sharapova in the Final if she is to replicate her elder sister Venus and win the Gold Medal in the singles event.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Juan Martin Del Potro came awful close to beating Roger Federer for the first time in six meetings when he led the Swiss man by 2 sets to love at the French Open a couple of months ago, but he failed to get the job done and has now lost all five matches against Federer in 2012.
The grass courts should favour the Federer game even more and I think he has the mental edge in this match and that is why I believe he will likely earn a break in each set to cover the spread.
Del Potro has quietly moved through the draw this week, but grass is not his favourite surface and he is still to beat one of the top guys since coming back from his injury that ruled him out for around a year back in 2010.
Since beating Federer in London at the End of Year Championships in 2009, Del Potro has been comfortably beaten by the World Number 1 in four of their six matches. That makes it tough mentally for him, especially on the grass courts, and I wouldn't be surprised if Federer is a 6-3, 6-4 winner.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams looks the pick of the Women still in this tournament and she has been serving wonderfully well this week and I think that will make the difference, again, when she plays Victoria Azarenka in this Semi Final.
I heard Virginia Wade said something along the lines of 'Azarenka is a lot better than Serena when it comes to playing off the ground' but I think she is one of the worst 'experts' out there and clearly watches around five minutes of tennis per year.
Anyone who has seen their two matches this year and their two matches last year will know that Serena has looked the dominant player in most aspects and has been the player dictating the points with her power.
Williams also looks the more likely to break serve and I think she is going to win with a little more room to spare than she did at Wimbledon last month. On that occasion, Serena would have covered this spread but got a little nervous before coming through 6-3, 7-6 to reach the Final.
The previous three matches shows that Serena has more joy when it comes to breaking serve and she has won all of those comfortably, while Williams also recorded a 6-2, 6-3 win over Azarenka here at Wimbledon in 2009.
With the way Williams is playing at the moment and the confidence she is displaying, I think she wins this one 6-3, 6-4 and will be a little less nervous when she approaches the winning line than when she got to that stage at Wimbledon last month and that should enable the cover.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.60 Units (29 Units Staked)
Friday, 6 July 2012
Wimbledon Day 11 Picks (July 6th 2012)
It is time for the Men's Semi Finals and I think we are going to have two top quality matches to look forward to. The Women's matches were a little anti-climatic in all honesty so I will be hoping that these two Semi Finals are a little more intriguing.
Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.
Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.
In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.
The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.
It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.
There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.
I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.
I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.
Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.
The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.
Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.
However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).
MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)
Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.
Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.
In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.
The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.
It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.
There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.
I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.
I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.
Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.
The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.
Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.
However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).
MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)
Friday, 8 June 2012
French Open Day 13 Picks (June 8th)
So how many people seriously though Sara Errani was going to reach the Final of the French Open? She once again showed a lot of heart and determination to see of Sam Stosur, but the Australian is going to be kicking herself that she didn't ride the momentum from the second set to see herself through to her second Final here.
Errani has really played well during the last week when I have seen more of her and her tactics have been spot on, but she is going to face a vastly tougher challenge in the form of Maria Sharapova who looks determined to complete her set of Grand Slams.
Sharapova dismissed the challenge of Petra Kvitova in a surprisingly straight-forward manner and it was a big surprise that her serve held together so well in the conditions we saw today. She will now be a pretty big favourite to win the tournament and I don't think I will be moving out of my position as I have a unit on her to win the tournament in the outright markets.
I would expect the Russian to be the big favourite, but that is going to lead to a different kind of pressure on her and she has failed to win in the Final of Wimbledon last year as well as the Australian Open this year so she has to prove she can cope with this stage. Sara Errani will surely be nervous in her first Grand Slam Final as a singles player, but she has played with destiny on her side as she has overcome big test after big test and I am sure the Italian will come out with full belief she can win this match.
Day 13 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: This is not going to be an easy Semi Final for Rafael Nadal, but his dominance of clay in general as well as against David Ferrer is surely going to give him a huge edge in the match at some point and I think he will be able to win this one in straight sets while covering the spread.
David Ferrer has had a very good tournament, but this is by the far the biggest challenge he will have faced and Nadal is not going to be as happy to gift wrap unforced errors as Andy Murray was in the Quarter Final. Ferrer is going to have to work for every point and we have seen him being successful like that in matches against Nadal in the past, but the best of five sets makes me a little more comfortable taking this spread.
There is likely going to be a point in this match where Ferrer will almost accept that he has lost and that could lead to Nadal running away with at least one set and that should be enough to see him over the handicap.
While they have had some close matches on clay at times, the fact is that Nadal has won the last 15 sets on the surface and that has to garner a reaction from Ferrer if he falls a set and a break down.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ferrer just goes away a little once Nadal gets the conditions read and it could end in a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win for the higher ranked Spaniard as the 'King of Clay' marches on to yet another Final here.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: Novak Djokovic won his last match in five sets and had to save four match points along the way and I think he has a lot more belief against Roger Federer than he did say 12 months ago.
Djokovic has won 6 of their last 7 matches between himself and Federer and he has looked the more impressive for the most part in this tournament. They both went five sets in their Quarter Final, but the difference was that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played lights out tennis against Djokovic, while Federer was fortunate that Juan Martin Del Potro seemed to lose something physically from a position of 2-0 in sets.
I expect the heavier conditions expected in Paris is not going to favour Federer too much and I am sure there is something not quite right with him at this tournament, especially when seeing his matches with lesser opponents.
Federer did hold a 3-1 lead in the head to head between the two players on clay courts, but he then lost in Rome fairly comfortably in straight sets and that is the final mental piece I think Djokovic will need to get the job done.
I would like to see a close contest, but I have a feeling it could be a little anti-climatic and I am favouring Djokovic to come through 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 20-23, - 0.54 Units (71 Units Staked)
Errani has really played well during the last week when I have seen more of her and her tactics have been spot on, but she is going to face a vastly tougher challenge in the form of Maria Sharapova who looks determined to complete her set of Grand Slams.
Sharapova dismissed the challenge of Petra Kvitova in a surprisingly straight-forward manner and it was a big surprise that her serve held together so well in the conditions we saw today. She will now be a pretty big favourite to win the tournament and I don't think I will be moving out of my position as I have a unit on her to win the tournament in the outright markets.
I would expect the Russian to be the big favourite, but that is going to lead to a different kind of pressure on her and she has failed to win in the Final of Wimbledon last year as well as the Australian Open this year so she has to prove she can cope with this stage. Sara Errani will surely be nervous in her first Grand Slam Final as a singles player, but she has played with destiny on her side as she has overcome big test after big test and I am sure the Italian will come out with full belief she can win this match.
Day 13 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: This is not going to be an easy Semi Final for Rafael Nadal, but his dominance of clay in general as well as against David Ferrer is surely going to give him a huge edge in the match at some point and I think he will be able to win this one in straight sets while covering the spread.
David Ferrer has had a very good tournament, but this is by the far the biggest challenge he will have faced and Nadal is not going to be as happy to gift wrap unforced errors as Andy Murray was in the Quarter Final. Ferrer is going to have to work for every point and we have seen him being successful like that in matches against Nadal in the past, but the best of five sets makes me a little more comfortable taking this spread.
There is likely going to be a point in this match where Ferrer will almost accept that he has lost and that could lead to Nadal running away with at least one set and that should be enough to see him over the handicap.
While they have had some close matches on clay at times, the fact is that Nadal has won the last 15 sets on the surface and that has to garner a reaction from Ferrer if he falls a set and a break down.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ferrer just goes away a little once Nadal gets the conditions read and it could end in a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win for the higher ranked Spaniard as the 'King of Clay' marches on to yet another Final here.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: Novak Djokovic won his last match in five sets and had to save four match points along the way and I think he has a lot more belief against Roger Federer than he did say 12 months ago.
Djokovic has won 6 of their last 7 matches between himself and Federer and he has looked the more impressive for the most part in this tournament. They both went five sets in their Quarter Final, but the difference was that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played lights out tennis against Djokovic, while Federer was fortunate that Juan Martin Del Potro seemed to lose something physically from a position of 2-0 in sets.
I expect the heavier conditions expected in Paris is not going to favour Federer too much and I am sure there is something not quite right with him at this tournament, especially when seeing his matches with lesser opponents.
Federer did hold a 3-1 lead in the head to head between the two players on clay courts, but he then lost in Rome fairly comfortably in straight sets and that is the final mental piece I think Djokovic will need to get the job done.
I would like to see a close contest, but I have a feeling it could be a little anti-climatic and I am favouring Djokovic to come through 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 20-23, - 0.54 Units (71 Units Staked)
Friday, 30 March 2012
Tennis Picks March 30th (Miami)
I said earlier on my Twitter page that I was going to get my pick out for the Rafael Nadal v Andy Murray Semi Final around 90 minutes before the match was going to start, but then received the news that Nadal has pulled out with the knee injury that has been bothering him the last few days.
Andy Murray getting through to the Final is very good news for the outright picks as that means we will already see a profit even if neither Murray nor Maria Sharapova win their respective events.
Novak Djokovic was another player that I picked in the outright market and I do believe he will make the Final against Murray to ensure a very good week is in the offing.
Juan Monaco + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I will admit that Novak Djokovic is a vastly improved player to the one that has beaten Juan Monaco on all 4 occasions they have met previously, but something has to be said for the fact that all of those matches have been tight affairs.
Monaco has also been playing very well here in Miami over the last ten days and he could cause a few problems, although his serve can be susceptible to offering too many chances, especially if Djokovic plays a first set to the same level as he did against David Ferrer.
Djokovic had failed to cover this spread against Monaco in 5 previous meetings and I will take my chances that the Argentine will at least keep this close.
I expect Djokovic will come through, most likely 7-5, 6-3
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco + 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-9, - 0.09 Units (30 Units Staked)
Andy Murray getting through to the Final is very good news for the outright picks as that means we will already see a profit even if neither Murray nor Maria Sharapova win their respective events.
Novak Djokovic was another player that I picked in the outright market and I do believe he will make the Final against Murray to ensure a very good week is in the offing.
Juan Monaco + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I will admit that Novak Djokovic is a vastly improved player to the one that has beaten Juan Monaco on all 4 occasions they have met previously, but something has to be said for the fact that all of those matches have been tight affairs.
Monaco has also been playing very well here in Miami over the last ten days and he could cause a few problems, although his serve can be susceptible to offering too many chances, especially if Djokovic plays a first set to the same level as he did against David Ferrer.
Djokovic had failed to cover this spread against Monaco in 5 previous meetings and I will take my chances that the Argentine will at least keep this close.
I expect Djokovic will come through, most likely 7-5, 6-3
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco + 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-9, - 0.09 Units (30 Units Staked)
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Australian Open Day 12 Pick- Djokovic v Murray
Yesterday we picked all 3 underdogs to win their matches and we had a good day as two of those managed to get through.
I was stunned with the lack of respect that was given to Rafael Nadal and his chances of winning his match with Federer, not just by the layers but by the so called 'experts'... I was not concerned at all that he would Federer all the way in the match as he has the game plan that is tough for the Swiss player to deal with and we saw that again yesterday.
The one handed backhand used by Federer just does not do enough damage on a consistent basis, while Rafael Nadal was too quick and physically strong as he began to grind Federer down.
In the Women's draw, I am very happy to see the Final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova as both are deserving to be in this position and should offer up plenty of entertainment for the crowd.
Even better was the fact that the winner of this Grand Slam will be taking over as the World Number 1 in the Women's game and that should be a fascinating encounter. I am thinking of doing a live blog covering that Final and, IF I enjoy it, I might do the same for the Men's Final on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets vs Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this match for much of the day today and I have finally decided that I am going to have a small interest on the World Number 1 going through to his third consecutive Grand Slam Final against Rafael Nadal with a 4 set win.
Andy Murray should feel confident that he can spring a surprise, and I think he will push Djokovic here, but I still think his serve needs some work to find the consistency of getting up to 65% of first serves in play... The second serve remains a liability that can be exposed, especially by the very best players in the World like Djokovic.
I expect Murray's link up with Ivan Lendl will work, but it is still early in their relationship and I have a feeling Murray could resort to his former tactics IF he falls behind in this match... Those tactics have not really helped him in the past in best of 5 set matches in the latter stages of tournaments and I have a feeling he will fall short here.
There were some doubts about the fitness of Djokovic as he was beginning to really struggle against David Ferrer in the last Round, but he looked very strong in the third set so I don't think there are going to be too many physical issues for him to overcome here.
I think the World Number 1 will be a little too consistent and aggressive for Murray here and will pull away after splitting the first two sets. Murray was beaten in 4 sets in his last two Grand Slam losses, both to Rafael Nadal, and I think he can take a set from previous experiences of playing Djokovic.
However, I think the Serbian will get through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 20-14, + 15.76 Units
I was stunned with the lack of respect that was given to Rafael Nadal and his chances of winning his match with Federer, not just by the layers but by the so called 'experts'... I was not concerned at all that he would Federer all the way in the match as he has the game plan that is tough for the Swiss player to deal with and we saw that again yesterday.
The one handed backhand used by Federer just does not do enough damage on a consistent basis, while Rafael Nadal was too quick and physically strong as he began to grind Federer down.
In the Women's draw, I am very happy to see the Final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova as both are deserving to be in this position and should offer up plenty of entertainment for the crowd.
Even better was the fact that the winner of this Grand Slam will be taking over as the World Number 1 in the Women's game and that should be a fascinating encounter. I am thinking of doing a live blog covering that Final and, IF I enjoy it, I might do the same for the Men's Final on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets vs Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this match for much of the day today and I have finally decided that I am going to have a small interest on the World Number 1 going through to his third consecutive Grand Slam Final against Rafael Nadal with a 4 set win.
Andy Murray should feel confident that he can spring a surprise, and I think he will push Djokovic here, but I still think his serve needs some work to find the consistency of getting up to 65% of first serves in play... The second serve remains a liability that can be exposed, especially by the very best players in the World like Djokovic.
I expect Murray's link up with Ivan Lendl will work, but it is still early in their relationship and I have a feeling Murray could resort to his former tactics IF he falls behind in this match... Those tactics have not really helped him in the past in best of 5 set matches in the latter stages of tournaments and I have a feeling he will fall short here.
There were some doubts about the fitness of Djokovic as he was beginning to really struggle against David Ferrer in the last Round, but he looked very strong in the third set so I don't think there are going to be too many physical issues for him to overcome here.
I think the World Number 1 will be a little too consistent and aggressive for Murray here and will pull away after splitting the first two sets. Murray was beaten in 4 sets in his last two Grand Slam losses, both to Rafael Nadal, and I think he can take a set from previous experiences of playing Djokovic.
However, I think the Serbian will get through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 20-14, + 15.76 Units
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Australian Open Day 11 Picks
The tournament is fast moving to its conclusion and I don't think there will be too many people out there that are disappointed with the line up we have in both the Men's and Women's draws.
Novak Djokovic worried me for a few moments as I thought the outright pick could be in real trouble, especially in the second set as David Ferrer looked to press home his advantage. However, the World Number 1 got a second wind and will look to take advantage of the couple of days rest he has before his Semi Final clash with Andy Murray.
Day 11 features both Women's Semi Finals, but also the magnificent looking match between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer so let's get on with the picks.
DAY 11 PICKS
Kim Clijsters vs Victoria Azarenka: I am already in a fairly nice position that I have both of these players in my outright picks, so I have Victoria Azarenka at 6.00 and Kim Clijsters at 11.00 to win the tournament outright.
However, I am going to have an interest in Kim Clijsters coming through this match as I think she is the stronger player of the two and I believe she has recovered from the ankle injury that threatened her tournament in the 4th Round win over Na Li.
Azarenka is a very good player, but one that likes dictating the rallies, something I don't think she will be given the opportunity to do in this match as Clijsters is the more powerful player off the ground.
Both players serves can sometimes let them down, but I think the Belgian also has the edge in this department too, while she also leads the head to head 4-2 (4-1 on hard courts).
It will be tight, but I am surprised that Clijsters is considered the underdog. I think it is also telling that Clijsters has been the favourite in every other meeting, with the longest odds being 1.68 in those matches.
I don't think enough has changed to have the Belgian as the underdog and will look for her to move on 6-4, 6-3
Maria Sharapova vs Petra Kvitova: Now I am picking the underdog here as well, despite the fact that I think Petra Kvitova is the most exciting player on the WTA Tour and would be a worthy World Number 1 at the end of this tournament.
However, she has not looked her dominating self in the last couple of Rounds as I think the slower courts means she has to do more with her shots, leading her to making more mistakes and showing a few inconsistencies in the shot making.
Now Kvitova faces Maria Sharapova, a player that has only been tested once in this tournament, but one that will have to display the mental strength she has become known for against her conqueror at Wimbledon last July.
My biggest concern with this pick is the Sharapova serve that can be a real liability when the pressure increases in matches, although she has done well in this department throughout the last 2 weeks. I also think Sharapova will be able to do a little more against Kvitova in the offensive department and might pressure her younger opponent enough to come through this one.
It's funny to think that around 2 months ago, Sharapova was the 1.55 favourite in this match, yet she is now the underdog. I think that is an over-reaction to the plaudits Kvitova is getting at the moment and the Russian has to be backed to come through in what should be an exciting Semi Final.
Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer: I have never wanted to be more wrong about a pick than this one as I would love to see Federer reach the Final, but you can't argue with Nadal's record against him and I just feel there is a lot of value at the current prices on the Spanish World Number 2.
Nadal hasn't had a great tournament, but he has the game that is likely to cause Federer plenty of problems as it has in 19 of their previous 28 meetings.
The players that have had success against Nadal have begun using the backhand down the line to his backhand, but this is a shot I don't think Federer can hit with consistent effect and we will see a lot of heavy spins going to his backhand from the Nadal lefty forehand.
The other reason I want to keep Nadal onside in this one is the fact he has won the last 5 tie-breakers that they have played against one another, showing that he is effective in the big points in which, I would guess, he has hurt the backhand.
Nadal leads on outdoor hard courts 6-1 and has not been beaten on one of these courts since 2005 to Federer. The courts have been playing slow enough to suggest Federer will have to earn all his points and I just think Nadal will be too consistent.
I would love to be wrong, but I do think the Spaniard will get through in a long 4 or 5 setter.
MY PICKS: Kim Clijsters @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 2.25 BetFred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 18-13, + 12.26 Units
Novak Djokovic worried me for a few moments as I thought the outright pick could be in real trouble, especially in the second set as David Ferrer looked to press home his advantage. However, the World Number 1 got a second wind and will look to take advantage of the couple of days rest he has before his Semi Final clash with Andy Murray.
Day 11 features both Women's Semi Finals, but also the magnificent looking match between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer so let's get on with the picks.
DAY 11 PICKS
Kim Clijsters vs Victoria Azarenka: I am already in a fairly nice position that I have both of these players in my outright picks, so I have Victoria Azarenka at 6.00 and Kim Clijsters at 11.00 to win the tournament outright.
However, I am going to have an interest in Kim Clijsters coming through this match as I think she is the stronger player of the two and I believe she has recovered from the ankle injury that threatened her tournament in the 4th Round win over Na Li.
Azarenka is a very good player, but one that likes dictating the rallies, something I don't think she will be given the opportunity to do in this match as Clijsters is the more powerful player off the ground.
Both players serves can sometimes let them down, but I think the Belgian also has the edge in this department too, while she also leads the head to head 4-2 (4-1 on hard courts).
It will be tight, but I am surprised that Clijsters is considered the underdog. I think it is also telling that Clijsters has been the favourite in every other meeting, with the longest odds being 1.68 in those matches.
I don't think enough has changed to have the Belgian as the underdog and will look for her to move on 6-4, 6-3
Maria Sharapova vs Petra Kvitova: Now I am picking the underdog here as well, despite the fact that I think Petra Kvitova is the most exciting player on the WTA Tour and would be a worthy World Number 1 at the end of this tournament.
However, she has not looked her dominating self in the last couple of Rounds as I think the slower courts means she has to do more with her shots, leading her to making more mistakes and showing a few inconsistencies in the shot making.
Now Kvitova faces Maria Sharapova, a player that has only been tested once in this tournament, but one that will have to display the mental strength she has become known for against her conqueror at Wimbledon last July.
My biggest concern with this pick is the Sharapova serve that can be a real liability when the pressure increases in matches, although she has done well in this department throughout the last 2 weeks. I also think Sharapova will be able to do a little more against Kvitova in the offensive department and might pressure her younger opponent enough to come through this one.
It's funny to think that around 2 months ago, Sharapova was the 1.55 favourite in this match, yet she is now the underdog. I think that is an over-reaction to the plaudits Kvitova is getting at the moment and the Russian has to be backed to come through in what should be an exciting Semi Final.
Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer: I have never wanted to be more wrong about a pick than this one as I would love to see Federer reach the Final, but you can't argue with Nadal's record against him and I just feel there is a lot of value at the current prices on the Spanish World Number 2.
Nadal hasn't had a great tournament, but he has the game that is likely to cause Federer plenty of problems as it has in 19 of their previous 28 meetings.
The players that have had success against Nadal have begun using the backhand down the line to his backhand, but this is a shot I don't think Federer can hit with consistent effect and we will see a lot of heavy spins going to his backhand from the Nadal lefty forehand.
The other reason I want to keep Nadal onside in this one is the fact he has won the last 5 tie-breakers that they have played against one another, showing that he is effective in the big points in which, I would guess, he has hurt the backhand.
Nadal leads on outdoor hard courts 6-1 and has not been beaten on one of these courts since 2005 to Federer. The courts have been playing slow enough to suggest Federer will have to earn all his points and I just think Nadal will be too consistent.
I would love to be wrong, but I do think the Spaniard will get through in a long 4 or 5 setter.
MY PICKS: Kim Clijsters @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 2.25 BetFred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 18-13, + 12.26 Units
Friday, 1 July 2011
Wimbledon Day 11 Picks- Men's Semi Finals
It was a good day yesterday and today I don't feel like giving too much back to the enemy... The Men's Semi Finals are very difficult matches to predict but I will have minimum stakes on both matches and see where it leaves us.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga created one of the biggest shocks in recent Wimbledon history as he came back from 2 sets down to defeat Roger Federer in the Quarter Finals. Now the question is whether he can back up that performance against the man who has lost just once in 2011.
Novak Djokovic looked flat and out of sorts in his win over Bernard Tomic and it seems clear that the grass is not his favourite surface. The Serb has had a pretty decent tournament all things considering, but the performances against Tomic and Marcos Baghdatis has worried me.
There is also the added pressure on Djokovic of reaching the World Number 1 spot with a win here, something that is almost impossible to ignore for the player regardless of what they say.
Tsonga will need to continue playing the offensive tennis that has taken him this far. He will need to serve big and take it to Djokovic when he sees second serves.
The big man also holds a 5-2 head to head record over Djokovic, although he was fortunate to take advantage of an ill opponent when they last played at the Australian Open in 2010.
If Tsonga can serve big, he may just replicate Tomas Berdych by beating Federer and Djokovic in consecutive rounds to reach the Wimbledon Final.
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 vs Andy Murray: This match represents a huge chance for Andy Murray to make history and reach the Wimbledon Final, the first time for a British player in the Open era.
Rafael Nadal did have an injury scare in the competition, but he looked like he was moving free enough in his win over Mardy Fish and rightly is the favourite to take home the Wimbledon crown for the 3rd time. However, he knows how difficult it will be to beat Murray after overcoming him in Paris in a match where he saved a huge number of break points and played the big points brilliantly.
Nadal has won their 2 previous meetings at Wimbledon without dropping a set, but this match looks certain to be closer with the way Murray is playing.
Unfortunately for British hopes, Murray's second serve is still a liability that could be exposed by Nadal, while the Scot also seems to play within himself at the crucial times in sets.
I look to see Nadal take control of the rallies when Murray has to serve a second, and I also believe the Spaniard has more belief in his game on this slow surface.
I do expect Murray to take a set this time, but Nadal to prove too strong again and break British hearts.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 @ 7.5 BetFred (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 17.67 Units (+ 3.86 Units Day 10)
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga created one of the biggest shocks in recent Wimbledon history as he came back from 2 sets down to defeat Roger Federer in the Quarter Finals. Now the question is whether he can back up that performance against the man who has lost just once in 2011.
Novak Djokovic looked flat and out of sorts in his win over Bernard Tomic and it seems clear that the grass is not his favourite surface. The Serb has had a pretty decent tournament all things considering, but the performances against Tomic and Marcos Baghdatis has worried me.
There is also the added pressure on Djokovic of reaching the World Number 1 spot with a win here, something that is almost impossible to ignore for the player regardless of what they say.
Tsonga will need to continue playing the offensive tennis that has taken him this far. He will need to serve big and take it to Djokovic when he sees second serves.
The big man also holds a 5-2 head to head record over Djokovic, although he was fortunate to take advantage of an ill opponent when they last played at the Australian Open in 2010.
If Tsonga can serve big, he may just replicate Tomas Berdych by beating Federer and Djokovic in consecutive rounds to reach the Wimbledon Final.
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 vs Andy Murray: This match represents a huge chance for Andy Murray to make history and reach the Wimbledon Final, the first time for a British player in the Open era.
Rafael Nadal did have an injury scare in the competition, but he looked like he was moving free enough in his win over Mardy Fish and rightly is the favourite to take home the Wimbledon crown for the 3rd time. However, he knows how difficult it will be to beat Murray after overcoming him in Paris in a match where he saved a huge number of break points and played the big points brilliantly.
Nadal has won their 2 previous meetings at Wimbledon without dropping a set, but this match looks certain to be closer with the way Murray is playing.
Unfortunately for British hopes, Murray's second serve is still a liability that could be exposed by Nadal, while the Scot also seems to play within himself at the crucial times in sets.
I look to see Nadal take control of the rallies when Murray has to serve a second, and I also believe the Spaniard has more belief in his game on this slow surface.
I do expect Murray to take a set this time, but Nadal to prove too strong again and break British hearts.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 @ 7.5 BetFred (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 17.67 Units (+ 3.86 Units Day 10)
Friday, 3 June 2011
French Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals
The Women's draw saw Chinese player Na Li come through to play the defending Champion Francesca Schiavone after both won in straight sets on Thursday.
This could be a fascinating Final and I think the winner will come from who can enforce their game on the other in what I expect to be a tight battle.
But before we get there we have the Men's Semi Finals to look forward to and I would clear any schedules to make sure the two are watched on Friday- I think we are in for a special day of tennis.
Now on to the Semi Final picks:
Rafael Nadal win 3-0 in sets vs Andy Murray: I have had to think about this for a little bit of time before settling on this pick as Rafael Nadal had not been playing his best tennis before meeting Robin Soderling in the last Round, while Andy Murray performed brilliantly when the pair met in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago.
However, after looking at the match up, I just feel Nadal has the edge in terms of movement, thanks even more so to Murray's ankle injury, and I also feel Murray has not performed to as high a level as you would believe if you read the British press.
His heart and determination to recover deficits in sets and matches has to be commended, but Nadal is not the type of player that will allow people to get off the floor once the Spaniard has them there.
I also feel Murray is too prone to throwing in 1/2 bad service games per set in recent matches and that is another issue that will bite him here. Murray has talked about patiently building a point on clay courts, but that too will receive the ultimate test on Friday.
Any remnants of an ankle injury will be brutally exposed by Nadal at every opportunity and he seems to have too much.
Nadal also leads the head to head 10-5 (3-0 on clay courts) and won their last meeting in a Grand Slam in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.
Roger Federer + 5.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: It is hard for me to really believe Roger Federer is getting just shy of a set full of games against Novak Djokovic in this match, especially considering how well the Swiss former World Number 1 is playing.
We all know about the records Djokovic can reach if he wins this match, including becoming the new World Number 1, but I just feel the bookmakers have overlooked Federer here.
He will need to serve well if Federer wants to win this game. The forehand has also got to work while he should look to use the slice and short angles with his backhand to try and nullify Djokovic's shots down the line off his own backhand.
Federer has also looked supreme in the tournament, not yet dropping a set, and I genuinely feel he has the chance to win this match outright.
Djokovic has been in wonderful form all season and has had 4 days off thanks to Fabio Fognini retiring before a ball had been hit in anger in the Quarter Finals. The Serb was impressive against Richard Gasquet in his last match, but games with Federer have been historically tough.
Federer leads the head to head 13-9 (2-1 on clay courts), although Djokovic has won all 3 meetings this season.
Djokovic has also beaten Federer in the last 2 Grand Slam events, both in this Round, although it was 3 tight sets in Australia and a 5 set classic at the US Open last Summer.
They have had plenty of tight matches and I dont think this one will be much different. Federer can prove he is still someone we should talk about when it comes to Grand Slam winners and he can make a real statement here.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-0 sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 5.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 21.59 Units (+ 3.82 Units Day 12)
This could be a fascinating Final and I think the winner will come from who can enforce their game on the other in what I expect to be a tight battle.
But before we get there we have the Men's Semi Finals to look forward to and I would clear any schedules to make sure the two are watched on Friday- I think we are in for a special day of tennis.
Now on to the Semi Final picks:
Rafael Nadal win 3-0 in sets vs Andy Murray: I have had to think about this for a little bit of time before settling on this pick as Rafael Nadal had not been playing his best tennis before meeting Robin Soderling in the last Round, while Andy Murray performed brilliantly when the pair met in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago.
However, after looking at the match up, I just feel Nadal has the edge in terms of movement, thanks even more so to Murray's ankle injury, and I also feel Murray has not performed to as high a level as you would believe if you read the British press.
His heart and determination to recover deficits in sets and matches has to be commended, but Nadal is not the type of player that will allow people to get off the floor once the Spaniard has them there.
I also feel Murray is too prone to throwing in 1/2 bad service games per set in recent matches and that is another issue that will bite him here. Murray has talked about patiently building a point on clay courts, but that too will receive the ultimate test on Friday.
Any remnants of an ankle injury will be brutally exposed by Nadal at every opportunity and he seems to have too much.
Nadal also leads the head to head 10-5 (3-0 on clay courts) and won their last meeting in a Grand Slam in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.
Roger Federer + 5.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: It is hard for me to really believe Roger Federer is getting just shy of a set full of games against Novak Djokovic in this match, especially considering how well the Swiss former World Number 1 is playing.
We all know about the records Djokovic can reach if he wins this match, including becoming the new World Number 1, but I just feel the bookmakers have overlooked Federer here.
He will need to serve well if Federer wants to win this game. The forehand has also got to work while he should look to use the slice and short angles with his backhand to try and nullify Djokovic's shots down the line off his own backhand.
Federer has also looked supreme in the tournament, not yet dropping a set, and I genuinely feel he has the chance to win this match outright.
Djokovic has been in wonderful form all season and has had 4 days off thanks to Fabio Fognini retiring before a ball had been hit in anger in the Quarter Finals. The Serb was impressive against Richard Gasquet in his last match, but games with Federer have been historically tough.
Federer leads the head to head 13-9 (2-1 on clay courts), although Djokovic has won all 3 meetings this season.
Djokovic has also beaten Federer in the last 2 Grand Slam events, both in this Round, although it was 3 tight sets in Australia and a 5 set classic at the US Open last Summer.
They have had plenty of tight matches and I dont think this one will be much different. Federer can prove he is still someone we should talk about when it comes to Grand Slam winners and he can make a real statement here.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-0 sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 5.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 21.59 Units (+ 3.82 Units Day 12)
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