The Quarter Final matches in the four tournaments being played this week have been set for Friday and I am looking to build on a strong Thursday.
It was a good enough day where I managed to find a player who covered the number of games being asked despite LOSING the match, which is quite incredible. Pablo Carreno Busta was beaten 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, but that was enough to cover the 2.5 handicap and I think that has at least made up for some of the poorer luck I had earlier in the week and and at the end of last week.
I have been able to look through the Quarter Final matches to be played in Doha and Rotterdam on Friday, but any picks from Buenos Aires and New York will have to be added during the day.
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Caroline Garcia: There should be plenty of big hitting tennis on display on Friday in this Quarter Final when Garbine Muguruza and Caroline Garcia meet in Doha.
The difference for me is the superior returning that Muguruza has displayed and I think that can be the inches that separates players on any given day on a tennis court.
Both Muguruza and Garcia have solid serves which are going to generate cheap points, but I just feel Garcia will have to work a little harder a little more often than Muguruza. That builds a pressure on a player especially when they know break point opportunities are going to be rare during the course of a match.
I have to also say that Muguruza has looked slightly stronger in her wins this week than the ones Garcia has produced and I like the Spaniard here.
There will be some tight moments that Muguruza will have to work through, but I give her enough of an edge to ask her to win and cover this number of games in the match.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Catherine Bellis: An impressive win over Karolina Pliskova has taken Catherine Bellis through to the Quarter Final in Doha after coming through the Qualifiers. This is a different kind of test for her and Simona Halep has looked in good shape in her first appearance since losing the Australian Open Final.
Bellis had to face an aggressive, big serving game in the Third Round, but this time she plays an opponent who can look to outlast her opponents in long rallies. The young American will be asked to generate some of her own power and will also be forced into playing a lot of awkward balls if Halep is on her game and I think that is a tough challenge fo her.
I have been impressed with the way Halep has found her consistency this week to keep opponents in awkward positions on the court and her numbers on the serve and return have shown improvement from 2017.
Halep is a player that can see her serve become a little vulnerable when not hitting her marks and that always makes this kind of handicap difficult for her to cover. However the way she has been returning so far is impressive and I think she will put Bellis under immense pressure off the return.
Ultimately I think Halep's movement around the court and ability to turn defence into attack is going to be enough to beat Bellis. The latter can make it difficult at times, but Halep can do enough to clear this number of games as long as she serves to the standard she has been so far in Doha.
Petra Kvitova v Julia Goerges: This is the second tournament in a row that Petra Kvitova and Julia Goerges are meeting and they played a really close match in St Petersburg.
Kvitova won on that day and went on to win the tournament and I think she can frank that form despite how well Goerges is clearly playing at this moment in her career.
There was a clear difference in the return performances of the two players when they met in St Petersburg and I think that is going to be a difference in this match too. Kvitova seems to get a little more from her return game and in a match featuring two big servers that is all that it takes to separate two players.
It will be close again because of the tough path Kvitova has had through the draw compared with Georges.
That could mean tiredness is a potential issue for Kvitova who won the tournament in St Petersburg, but I do like the way she has been playing. I would have had her down as a stronger favourite than she is in this Quarter Final and I am going to back Kvitova to frank her win over Georges by earning another here.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: At the moment the only thing that concerns Kei Nishikori is to make sure he is feeling as healthy as possible and winning the Challenger tournament in Dallas followed by a couple of wins in the New York Open will have helped the confidence.
There is no doubt he is the stand out player in the draw when at his full fitness, but that has always been something that has held Nishikori back from perhaps winning a Grand Slam or two already.
He is playing well as he takes advantage of those players that are simply not on his level and his numbers have shown that with a strong hold and a better break percentage on the hard courts than he has had over the last twelve months.
Nishikori should have a few chances to improve those numbers further when taking on Radu Albot who has surprisingly made his way through to the Quarter Final. Albot had a big win over John Isner in the Second Round, but ultimately he is a player who has to work hard to protect his serve and I am not convinced he can get the better of Nishikori in enough rallies to make this a very competitive match.
Obviously I could be wrong, but I would expect Nishikori to have the bulk of the break point opportunities in this one. Albot has not returned as well on the surface as Nishikori and I like the former top 10 player to continue on his road to recovery with a straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-6, + 6.20 Units (32 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Showing posts with label New York. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York. Show all posts
Friday, 16 February 2018
Saturday, 8 September 2012
US Open Day 13 Picks (September 8th)
I haven't made picks from the US Open for a couple of days as I had some outrights that meant I didn't want to double dip and that has turned out to be the right decision all in all. David Ferrer managed to come through the third quarter after a titanic battle with Janko Tipsarevic, while Serena Williams is in the Final of the Women's tournament.
It wasn't all good news as Roger Federer exited to Tomas Berdych at the Quarter Final stage and it is going to be my worst result at a Grand Slam tournament in 2012. You have to love Berdych too- I have kept him onside in every Slam this year, only for him to disappoint once too often that I ignored him this time... His best performance of the year!
We have now reached 'Super Saturday' which means both Men's Semi Finals and the Women's Final will be played today, although I still don't think it is fair on the second Men's Semi as the winner gets less time to recover than the winner of the first Semi. That is the case in every Grand Slam, but none of the others expect a player to play the Final the next day and that is where the issue arises.
However, that is not going to be resolved until the tournament next year so the players have to deal with the hand given to them today.
Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games: My first pick is going to be the under total games in the Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Semi Final which will be going on at 4pm today (British time).
A lot of people will be calling how close this match could be and I tend to agree to a certain extent as I am not 100% sure which of these players is going to come through. Tomas Berdych has a strong record against Andy Murray which includes winning their only battle at Slam level back in the French Open 2010 and he has won 4 of their last 5 matches against one another.
However, I like the under for the total games as a four set match today is unlikely to go over this total and there is every chance that this match will be completed, one way or the other, in four or less sets.
The layers clearly fancy tie-breakers and tight sets, but only 3 of the 17 sets they have completed have needed a tie-break to separate them, while only another 2 have got to 5-5.
2 tie-breakers would be a killer unless there is a straight sets winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winning players comes through 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 which would finish under 41.5 games by 0.5 games.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: I really took some time before making this pick, but that was mainly down to the amount of respect I have for David Ferrer and what he does on a tennis court year in and year out.
He has taken full advantage of Rafael Nadal's absence in this tournament and will also be leading Spain in their Davis Cup Semi Final next week against the United States, but this may be a step too far, even for him.
Novak Djokovic has the mix of power and consistency that should cause Ferrer plenty of problems and I am unsure how much the Spaniard will have left in the tank after the emotional and physical battle in the Quarter Final against Janko Tipsarevic.
Ferrer doesn't have the 'get out of jail' serve and will have to earn every point, something that is bound to tell at one point with a 30 year old.
The Spaniard has now lost 10 sets in a row against Djokovic and while there are a few tight sets that could have gone his way, there are a number of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 sets in favour of the World Number 2 and defending Champion and I think he will prove too strong again.
I won't be surprised to see the match start off close, but eventually Djokovic prevailing 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It must be strange for the World Number 1, Victoria Azarenka, to come into a match as the complete underdog, but that is the case as she faces her nemesis Serena Williams who has a 9-1 head to head record against her.
Azarenka also came through the tougher Semi Final yesterday and everything here is pointing to a Serena win.
It was the same situation last season as Serena faced Sam Stosur in the Final, but she came unglued on that occasion and I think that will inspire her to better things this time around.
The spread looks big, but Serena has covered it against Azarenka in 4 of their previous 5 meetings going back to Toronto last season and Williams has too much in her game for Azarenka.
I am expecting Williams to win in straight sets and I also believe she is good enough to earn a couple of breaks of serve in one of the sets which should leave her in the position to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
US Open Update: 12-15, - 2.94 Units (50 Units Staked)
It wasn't all good news as Roger Federer exited to Tomas Berdych at the Quarter Final stage and it is going to be my worst result at a Grand Slam tournament in 2012. You have to love Berdych too- I have kept him onside in every Slam this year, only for him to disappoint once too often that I ignored him this time... His best performance of the year!
We have now reached 'Super Saturday' which means both Men's Semi Finals and the Women's Final will be played today, although I still don't think it is fair on the second Men's Semi as the winner gets less time to recover than the winner of the first Semi. That is the case in every Grand Slam, but none of the others expect a player to play the Final the next day and that is where the issue arises.
However, that is not going to be resolved until the tournament next year so the players have to deal with the hand given to them today.
Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games: My first pick is going to be the under total games in the Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Semi Final which will be going on at 4pm today (British time).
A lot of people will be calling how close this match could be and I tend to agree to a certain extent as I am not 100% sure which of these players is going to come through. Tomas Berdych has a strong record against Andy Murray which includes winning their only battle at Slam level back in the French Open 2010 and he has won 4 of their last 5 matches against one another.
However, I like the under for the total games as a four set match today is unlikely to go over this total and there is every chance that this match will be completed, one way or the other, in four or less sets.
The layers clearly fancy tie-breakers and tight sets, but only 3 of the 17 sets they have completed have needed a tie-break to separate them, while only another 2 have got to 5-5.
2 tie-breakers would be a killer unless there is a straight sets winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winning players comes through 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 which would finish under 41.5 games by 0.5 games.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: I really took some time before making this pick, but that was mainly down to the amount of respect I have for David Ferrer and what he does on a tennis court year in and year out.
He has taken full advantage of Rafael Nadal's absence in this tournament and will also be leading Spain in their Davis Cup Semi Final next week against the United States, but this may be a step too far, even for him.
Novak Djokovic has the mix of power and consistency that should cause Ferrer plenty of problems and I am unsure how much the Spaniard will have left in the tank after the emotional and physical battle in the Quarter Final against Janko Tipsarevic.
Ferrer doesn't have the 'get out of jail' serve and will have to earn every point, something that is bound to tell at one point with a 30 year old.
The Spaniard has now lost 10 sets in a row against Djokovic and while there are a few tight sets that could have gone his way, there are a number of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 sets in favour of the World Number 2 and defending Champion and I think he will prove too strong again.
I won't be surprised to see the match start off close, but eventually Djokovic prevailing 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It must be strange for the World Number 1, Victoria Azarenka, to come into a match as the complete underdog, but that is the case as she faces her nemesis Serena Williams who has a 9-1 head to head record against her.
Azarenka also came through the tougher Semi Final yesterday and everything here is pointing to a Serena win.
It was the same situation last season as Serena faced Sam Stosur in the Final, but she came unglued on that occasion and I think that will inspire her to better things this time around.
The spread looks big, but Serena has covered it against Azarenka in 4 of their previous 5 meetings going back to Toronto last season and Williams has too much in her game for Azarenka.
I am expecting Williams to win in straight sets and I also believe she is good enough to earn a couple of breaks of serve in one of the sets which should leave her in the position to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
US Open Update: 12-15, - 2.94 Units (50 Units Staked)
Wednesday, 5 September 2012
US Open Day 10 Picks (September 5th)
I haven't made one complaint about any of the picks I have made over the last ten days, blaming myself for making bad picks rather than anything that happened on the court... until yesterday.
This time it was the weather that conspired against me in both matches that were completed- the Victoria Azarenka match was unfortunate as she won the first set 6-1, only for Sam Stosur to play out of her skin for the next two sets, even in a losing effort. That was annoying as Azarenka was up 3-1 and 4-2 in the final set, but couldn't hold on to her serve until it was too late.
It was the David Ferrer match that really hurt as he went up 15-30 in the third set as he led 4-3, only for the weather to kick in and delay the match for several hours... Richard Gasquet was finished to be honest, but he was able to come back out, save a break point and then hold before being broken in his next service game and missing the cover by one game.
As I said on Twitter 'that was as predictable as it was gut-wrenching'.
The weather is expected to be in play again today and it will likely be another stop-start day... I am not happy with the fact that Serena Williams and Roger Federer have been scheduled for the night session as there is every chance that the other matches are all completed by that time and theirs could easily be postponed until tomorrow with the way the rain could be playing its part today.
Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: An all-Italian battle in the Quarter Final would not have been high on many people's projections at the beginning of this tournament, but that is the case as both of these girls knocked out Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska in their Fourth Round matches, the two favourites from this quarter of the draw.
Sara Errani is the more experienced at this level considering she reached the Final at the French Open earlier this year and she also holds a 3-2 head to head record against Roberta Vinci, winning the last three matches they have competed in.
Both have been in wonderful form with Errani reaching the Semi Final in New Haven the week before the US Open, while Vinci won the tournament in Dallas in the same week.
Both have also played well here in the early Rounds, but I think it is Errani who has the slightly more consistent game and I think that will see her reach her second Grand Slam Semi Final of the season, a real achievement.
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: Serena Williams is clearly the best player in the Women's draw and she is a short favourite to win the tournament after handing out a bagel in each of the last three sets she has played.
It might be a little more difficult against Ana Ivanovic, a player who is also playing pretty well at the moment, and someone who has at least made her previous matches somewhat competitive against Serena in the past.
The 6.5 games being given to the Serb may be down to the beating she took at Wimbledon by Victoria Azarenka as well as the fact she was handed a double bagel in her only match ahead of the US Open, but she has enough in her game to think she will average 3 games a set in this match to cover the handicap.
Serena is 3-0 against Ivanovic, but her largest win is 6-2, 6-4, so here's hoping Ivanovic can make this competitive.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Before the US Open began, Tomas Berdych spoke candidly about the top four in the Men's game and how there is a definite gap between them and the other players in the Tour and I am not sure he has the belief that he can beat someone like Roger Federer at this moment in time, particularly with the way Federer has been playing.
Both Men have come through their opening Rounds easily, but I think the mental edge will definitely belong to Federer as the court suits his game just fine.
It is possible that the match will be extended to four sets, and possibly until tomorrow with some of the rain in the area, but I like Federer's chances and I think Berdych is the kind of player than can fall away when he thinks the match is beyond his reach, and that should see the cover come in.
I'll look for a 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Running from yesterday with the score tied at 6-6 in the first set
Sara Errani - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-13, - 3.84 Units (43 Units Staked)
This time it was the weather that conspired against me in both matches that were completed- the Victoria Azarenka match was unfortunate as she won the first set 6-1, only for Sam Stosur to play out of her skin for the next two sets, even in a losing effort. That was annoying as Azarenka was up 3-1 and 4-2 in the final set, but couldn't hold on to her serve until it was too late.
It was the David Ferrer match that really hurt as he went up 15-30 in the third set as he led 4-3, only for the weather to kick in and delay the match for several hours... Richard Gasquet was finished to be honest, but he was able to come back out, save a break point and then hold before being broken in his next service game and missing the cover by one game.
As I said on Twitter 'that was as predictable as it was gut-wrenching'.
The weather is expected to be in play again today and it will likely be another stop-start day... I am not happy with the fact that Serena Williams and Roger Federer have been scheduled for the night session as there is every chance that the other matches are all completed by that time and theirs could easily be postponed until tomorrow with the way the rain could be playing its part today.
Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: An all-Italian battle in the Quarter Final would not have been high on many people's projections at the beginning of this tournament, but that is the case as both of these girls knocked out Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska in their Fourth Round matches, the two favourites from this quarter of the draw.
Sara Errani is the more experienced at this level considering she reached the Final at the French Open earlier this year and she also holds a 3-2 head to head record against Roberta Vinci, winning the last three matches they have competed in.
Both have been in wonderful form with Errani reaching the Semi Final in New Haven the week before the US Open, while Vinci won the tournament in Dallas in the same week.
Both have also played well here in the early Rounds, but I think it is Errani who has the slightly more consistent game and I think that will see her reach her second Grand Slam Semi Final of the season, a real achievement.
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: Serena Williams is clearly the best player in the Women's draw and she is a short favourite to win the tournament after handing out a bagel in each of the last three sets she has played.
It might be a little more difficult against Ana Ivanovic, a player who is also playing pretty well at the moment, and someone who has at least made her previous matches somewhat competitive against Serena in the past.
The 6.5 games being given to the Serb may be down to the beating she took at Wimbledon by Victoria Azarenka as well as the fact she was handed a double bagel in her only match ahead of the US Open, but she has enough in her game to think she will average 3 games a set in this match to cover the handicap.
Serena is 3-0 against Ivanovic, but her largest win is 6-2, 6-4, so here's hoping Ivanovic can make this competitive.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Before the US Open began, Tomas Berdych spoke candidly about the top four in the Men's game and how there is a definite gap between them and the other players in the Tour and I am not sure he has the belief that he can beat someone like Roger Federer at this moment in time, particularly with the way Federer has been playing.
Both Men have come through their opening Rounds easily, but I think the mental edge will definitely belong to Federer as the court suits his game just fine.
It is possible that the match will be extended to four sets, and possibly until tomorrow with some of the rain in the area, but I like Federer's chances and I think Berdych is the kind of player than can fall away when he thinks the match is beyond his reach, and that should see the cover come in.
I'll look for a 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Running from yesterday with the score tied at 6-6 in the first set
Sara Errani - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-13, - 3.84 Units (43 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 4 September 2012
US Open Day 9 Picks (September 4th)
It has been a pretty poor last few days for the picks as a big profit has dwindled away- most of those have been my own fault for making bad picks so I can't complain except at my poor judgement.
The only positive going is the fact that Roger Federer and Serena Williams are making their way through the draw as my outright picks.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has been playing well in his last couple of hard court tournaments, reaching the Final in Toronto and he has made comfortable progress through the draw here.
However, he is now facing David Ferrer, a player that has beaten him in 7 of their 8 previous matches, and who has won the last 9 sets the two have played against one another.
Ferrer showed some toughness to knock off Lleyton Hewitt in the last Round and he will be full of confidence in this match. He will show his usual level of consistency and you just have to think Gasquet is going to have to be more aggressive if he is going to make this a close match, and that is something he hasn't always felt comfortable doing.
They met in the Australian Open earlier this year and Ferrer won 6-4, 6-4, 6-1... It might be something similar today.
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets v Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick may just be playing his final ever professional match tonight under the lights against another former US Open Champion.
Juan Martin Del Potro had some question marks surrounding his fitness before this tournament began, but he has quietly made his way through the draw to this Fourth Round match and he has the big game that will give Roddick plenty of problems.
I don't expect the American will go down without a fight and he has been playing enough good tennis to think he will win a set against Del Potro, but overall the Argentinian is just too big off the ground and should be able to come through and end Roddick's career on the biggest tennis stadium in the World.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sam Stosur: It seems strange to back against the defending US Open Champion with such a big spread, but Victoria Azarenka has absolutely dominated Sam Stosur in their previous meetings and there isn't much to suggest it won't be the same again in this one.
Azarenka is 6-0 against Stosur and she hasn't lost a set against the Australian in those matches. Just to highlight the dominance, Azarenka has lost just ELEVEN games in the last four matches between the two players as she is stronger once the ball is in play.
The World Number 1 will get enough balls back in play off the Stosur serve and she has a clear edge when it comes to the backhand battle, while she is much more consistent off the ground.
A 6-4, 6-2 win is on the cards as far as I can foresee.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-11, + 0.16 Units (39 Units Staked)
The only positive going is the fact that Roger Federer and Serena Williams are making their way through the draw as my outright picks.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has been playing well in his last couple of hard court tournaments, reaching the Final in Toronto and he has made comfortable progress through the draw here.
However, he is now facing David Ferrer, a player that has beaten him in 7 of their 8 previous matches, and who has won the last 9 sets the two have played against one another.
Ferrer showed some toughness to knock off Lleyton Hewitt in the last Round and he will be full of confidence in this match. He will show his usual level of consistency and you just have to think Gasquet is going to have to be more aggressive if he is going to make this a close match, and that is something he hasn't always felt comfortable doing.
They met in the Australian Open earlier this year and Ferrer won 6-4, 6-4, 6-1... It might be something similar today.
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets v Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick may just be playing his final ever professional match tonight under the lights against another former US Open Champion.
Juan Martin Del Potro had some question marks surrounding his fitness before this tournament began, but he has quietly made his way through the draw to this Fourth Round match and he has the big game that will give Roddick plenty of problems.
I don't expect the American will go down without a fight and he has been playing enough good tennis to think he will win a set against Del Potro, but overall the Argentinian is just too big off the ground and should be able to come through and end Roddick's career on the biggest tennis stadium in the World.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sam Stosur: It seems strange to back against the defending US Open Champion with such a big spread, but Victoria Azarenka has absolutely dominated Sam Stosur in their previous meetings and there isn't much to suggest it won't be the same again in this one.
Azarenka is 6-0 against Stosur and she hasn't lost a set against the Australian in those matches. Just to highlight the dominance, Azarenka has lost just ELEVEN games in the last four matches between the two players as she is stronger once the ball is in play.
The World Number 1 will get enough balls back in play off the Stosur serve and she has a clear edge when it comes to the backhand battle, while she is much more consistent off the ground.
A 6-4, 6-2 win is on the cards as far as I can foresee.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-11, + 0.16 Units (39 Units Staked)
Monday, 3 September 2012
US Open Day 8 Picks (September 3rd)
Yesterday was as bad a day as I could have hoped for for the most part as Petra Kvitova was knocked out of the Women's event meaning my first outright choice from the five I made exited the tournament.
Her collapse after winning the first set 6-1 also meant both picks went down the crapper, although still in profit for the week.
However, all the doom and gloom was lifted as John Isner was knocked in the last match of the day and that leaves my pick of David Ferrer to win the Third Quarter of the Men's draw in a good position with his main rival out of the way. However, he has a tough couple of matches in front of him if he is to achieve his goal of making it back to the US Open Semi Finals.
Both the Men's and Women's events are shaping up nicely now as he we head into the final week of the last Grand Slam of the season. I have liked the look of both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic and wouldn't be surprised if that is the Final we get this time next week, while all eyes are on Serena Williams in the bottom half of the draw.
Today we will get to complete the Women's Quarter Final line up as well as seeing some of the big clashes in the Men's Fourth Round that many would have been waiting for since the draw was made, including Andy Murray v Milos Raonic.
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets v Nicolas Almagro: Anyone who watches tennis on a regular basis will know there isn't much love lost between these two players after their incident in Australia earlier this year.
This will be the fourth meeting between Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych this season and it is the latter that has a 2-1 lead. Berdych has also looked impressive so far during the US Open and clearly has built more confidence from his run to the Final at Winston Salem in the lead up to the event.
He is the better hard court player of the two and he has spent a lot less time on the court than Almagro who has needed at least 4 sets in each of his first three matches and that includes a 5 set match against Philip Petzschner.
However, Almagro has enough belief in his game to think he will win a set in this one, although I expect Berdych to be too strong in the end. This looks worth a small interest.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Mardy Fish: Roger Federer has looked so controlled in the first week of the tournament and I am expecting him to make serene progress through to the Quarter Final in this one.
Mardy Fish is a tough opponent, but he is still rediscovering his form after a long lay off ahead of Wimbledon and he has already spent a lot of time on the court so his fitness has to be in question against someone like Federer.
They met a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati and the 6-3, 7-6 win for Federer doesn't come close to telling the tale of that match as the World Number 1 dominated and had chances to win in much more comfortable fashion.
With the extra time on the court and the longer distance match, I think Federer will prove far too tough for Fish and he should be extra-focused against an opponent he knows can be very tough to play on his day.
I will be looking for a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer and a place in the last eight.
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: The first two picks were going to be my only plays on the day until I saw this pick being offered at ODDS AGAINST by one firm of layers.
Milos Raonic has a huge serve and I think he has the chance of earning the upset considering this match will be played under the lights and that is when the ball seems to be moving that much faster through the court.
Raonic has a huge serve that will put pressure on Andy Murray, even though the latter is one of the best returners of serve on the ATP Tour.
The match is very likely going to see a couple of tie-breakers and there is every chance that Raonic will sneak one of those which will be enough for this pick to be a winner.
I honestly believe Raonic can pull the upset, but will take this at odds against which looks a remarkably bad insight into the match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-9, + 3.16 Units (34 Units Staked)
Her collapse after winning the first set 6-1 also meant both picks went down the crapper, although still in profit for the week.
However, all the doom and gloom was lifted as John Isner was knocked in the last match of the day and that leaves my pick of David Ferrer to win the Third Quarter of the Men's draw in a good position with his main rival out of the way. However, he has a tough couple of matches in front of him if he is to achieve his goal of making it back to the US Open Semi Finals.
Both the Men's and Women's events are shaping up nicely now as he we head into the final week of the last Grand Slam of the season. I have liked the look of both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic and wouldn't be surprised if that is the Final we get this time next week, while all eyes are on Serena Williams in the bottom half of the draw.
Today we will get to complete the Women's Quarter Final line up as well as seeing some of the big clashes in the Men's Fourth Round that many would have been waiting for since the draw was made, including Andy Murray v Milos Raonic.
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets v Nicolas Almagro: Anyone who watches tennis on a regular basis will know there isn't much love lost between these two players after their incident in Australia earlier this year.
This will be the fourth meeting between Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych this season and it is the latter that has a 2-1 lead. Berdych has also looked impressive so far during the US Open and clearly has built more confidence from his run to the Final at Winston Salem in the lead up to the event.
He is the better hard court player of the two and he has spent a lot less time on the court than Almagro who has needed at least 4 sets in each of his first three matches and that includes a 5 set match against Philip Petzschner.
However, Almagro has enough belief in his game to think he will win a set in this one, although I expect Berdych to be too strong in the end. This looks worth a small interest.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Mardy Fish: Roger Federer has looked so controlled in the first week of the tournament and I am expecting him to make serene progress through to the Quarter Final in this one.
Mardy Fish is a tough opponent, but he is still rediscovering his form after a long lay off ahead of Wimbledon and he has already spent a lot of time on the court so his fitness has to be in question against someone like Federer.
They met a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati and the 6-3, 7-6 win for Federer doesn't come close to telling the tale of that match as the World Number 1 dominated and had chances to win in much more comfortable fashion.
With the extra time on the court and the longer distance match, I think Federer will prove far too tough for Fish and he should be extra-focused against an opponent he knows can be very tough to play on his day.
I will be looking for a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer and a place in the last eight.
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: The first two picks were going to be my only plays on the day until I saw this pick being offered at ODDS AGAINST by one firm of layers.
Milos Raonic has a huge serve and I think he has the chance of earning the upset considering this match will be played under the lights and that is when the ball seems to be moving that much faster through the court.
Raonic has a huge serve that will put pressure on Andy Murray, even though the latter is one of the best returners of serve on the ATP Tour.
The match is very likely going to see a couple of tie-breakers and there is every chance that Raonic will sneak one of those which will be enough for this pick to be a winner.
I honestly believe Raonic can pull the upset, but will take this at odds against which looks a remarkably bad insight into the match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-9, + 3.16 Units (34 Units Staked)
Sunday, 2 September 2012
US Open Day 7 Picks (September 2nd)
Alexandr Dolgopolov v Stanislas Wawrinka: I am going to have a small interest in Alexandr Dolgopolov to come through this Third Round match, although he is one of the most inconsistent players in the top Rankings and is always susceptible to throwing in an awful performance.
However, Dolgopolov has all the tools to cause Stanislas Wawrinka problems in this one and I was surprised that he was set as the underdog in the match.
I'll hope the Ukrainian's variations in the groundstrokes cause Wawrinka enough problems, although this has the makings of a five setter.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Marion Bartoli: Petra Kvitova was my pick to come through the top half of the section in the Women's draw and she has the chance to move through to the Quarter Finals and I am expecting her to do so in style.
Kvitova has been playing very well throughout the Summer on the North American hard courts and she destroyed Marion Bartoli in Montreal for the loss of just 2 games.
While I expect Bartoli to have more fight in this one, Kvitova is the one with the heavier groundstrokes and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-7, + 6.16 Units (31 Units Staked)
However, Dolgopolov has all the tools to cause Stanislas Wawrinka problems in this one and I was surprised that he was set as the underdog in the match.
I'll hope the Ukrainian's variations in the groundstrokes cause Wawrinka enough problems, although this has the makings of a five setter.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Marion Bartoli: Petra Kvitova was my pick to come through the top half of the section in the Women's draw and she has the chance to move through to the Quarter Finals and I am expecting her to do so in style.
Kvitova has been playing very well throughout the Summer on the North American hard courts and she destroyed Marion Bartoli in Montreal for the loss of just 2 games.
While I expect Bartoli to have more fight in this one, Kvitova is the one with the heavier groundstrokes and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-7, + 6.16 Units (31 Units Staked)
Saturday, 1 September 2012
US Open Day 6 Picks (September 1st)
The first week of this tournament has been going along swimmingly for the picks, both the outright and the daily ones, so I am pretty happy all in all.
However, I have seen how quick things can turnaround so am avoiding patting myself on the back and trying to concentrate as we complete the Third Round matches in the Women's tournament and beginning the Third Round of the Men's event.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a big spread to cover against a talented player like Fernando Verdasco, but Roger Federer has looked very good in his first couple of Rounds and I think he is going to put in another top performance against an opponent he will respect and not take lightly.
Verdasco is not the same player as he was back in 2009 when he had his break out season on the Tour, and he does have the tendency to throw away sets and that is where I think Federer will make hay.
The World Number 1 has been serving very effectively going back to Cincinnati and he will exert a lot of pressure on Verdasco and I think that will eventually be too much for the Spaniard.
The first set could be close, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Federer rolling in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Sam Querrey v Tomas Berdych: I know Tomas Berdych has come through his first couple of matches here without losing a set, but he has given his opponents some chances and I don't think his form warrants him to be a big favourite in this match.
Sam Querrey had an injury filled 2011, but he has been playing well in 2012 as he moves back up the Rankings, including winning the event in Los Angeles and Semi Final appearances in Washington and Winston Salem.
You have to remember that it was Berdych that ended Querrey's interest in Winston Salem last week, but he had previously been an early loser in tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, Cincinnati and Toronto.
There is every chance we could see a couple of tie-breakers in this one and I think the American is worth backing for a very small interest.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these players have dropped one set in the previous two Rounds of the tournament, but I like the Italian's chances to progress through to the Fourth Round as she has dominated recent meetings with Dominika Cibulkova.
Vinci has won the last three matches against Cibulkova and has only dropped one set in that time and she should be full of confidence now she is one win away from matching her total from the whole of the 2011 season.
She also won the tournament in Dallas last week to build that confidence and her 17-8 record on the hard courts this season is impressive.
I don't want to under-estimate Cibulkova who is a real fighter on the court, but she hasn't been as consistent as Vinci this season and I wouldn't be too surprised if she goes down in straight sets in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: I have backed Serena Williams in the main draw to win this tournament, but I think Ekaterina Makarova is being under-estimated to at least make life a little difficult for the American.
Serena will come out firing in this contest after being beaten by Makarova in the Australian Open earlier this season and her interview when mentioning that after her Second Round win is my biggest concern as Williams can be unplayable when fully locked in in a match.
However, Makarova has enough tools to keep plugging away in the match and, even if she loses in the end, I think the Russian will make sure Serena knows she has been in a match.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 9-4, + 9.16 Units (24 Units Staked)
However, I have seen how quick things can turnaround so am avoiding patting myself on the back and trying to concentrate as we complete the Third Round matches in the Women's tournament and beginning the Third Round of the Men's event.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a big spread to cover against a talented player like Fernando Verdasco, but Roger Federer has looked very good in his first couple of Rounds and I think he is going to put in another top performance against an opponent he will respect and not take lightly.
Verdasco is not the same player as he was back in 2009 when he had his break out season on the Tour, and he does have the tendency to throw away sets and that is where I think Federer will make hay.
The World Number 1 has been serving very effectively going back to Cincinnati and he will exert a lot of pressure on Verdasco and I think that will eventually be too much for the Spaniard.
The first set could be close, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Federer rolling in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Sam Querrey v Tomas Berdych: I know Tomas Berdych has come through his first couple of matches here without losing a set, but he has given his opponents some chances and I don't think his form warrants him to be a big favourite in this match.
Sam Querrey had an injury filled 2011, but he has been playing well in 2012 as he moves back up the Rankings, including winning the event in Los Angeles and Semi Final appearances in Washington and Winston Salem.
You have to remember that it was Berdych that ended Querrey's interest in Winston Salem last week, but he had previously been an early loser in tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, Cincinnati and Toronto.
There is every chance we could see a couple of tie-breakers in this one and I think the American is worth backing for a very small interest.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these players have dropped one set in the previous two Rounds of the tournament, but I like the Italian's chances to progress through to the Fourth Round as she has dominated recent meetings with Dominika Cibulkova.
Vinci has won the last three matches against Cibulkova and has only dropped one set in that time and she should be full of confidence now she is one win away from matching her total from the whole of the 2011 season.
She also won the tournament in Dallas last week to build that confidence and her 17-8 record on the hard courts this season is impressive.
I don't want to under-estimate Cibulkova who is a real fighter on the court, but she hasn't been as consistent as Vinci this season and I wouldn't be too surprised if she goes down in straight sets in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: I have backed Serena Williams in the main draw to win this tournament, but I think Ekaterina Makarova is being under-estimated to at least make life a little difficult for the American.
Serena will come out firing in this contest after being beaten by Makarova in the Australian Open earlier this season and her interview when mentioning that after her Second Round win is my biggest concern as Williams can be unplayable when fully locked in in a match.
However, Makarova has enough tools to keep plugging away in the match and, even if she loses in the end, I think the Russian will make sure Serena knows she has been in a match.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 9-4, + 9.16 Units (24 Units Staked)
Friday, 31 August 2012
US Open Day 5 Picks (August 31st)
So after months of speculating on this blog, I was not so surprised to see Andy Roddick announce that he will retire after the US Open.
Roddick has always struck me as the kind of man that wouldn't keep playing on the Tour without being competitive and he said so himself when he admitted he didn't want to just 'exist' week to week.
The immediate reaction to his retirement was one of disappointment as Roddick was one of the characters on the Tour that was not afraid to speak his mind and he was always fun to watch on the court.
But I can understand his frustrations in a season where he is no longer considered a genuine Grand Slam Winner, while he was struggling to even move on in the lesser tournaments. Losses to the likes of Steve Darcis and Jeremy Chardy on the North American hard courts would have strengthened the belief in his mind that the 'time was now' to finish his career.
It will be interesting to see where Roddick will fit in the history of tennis now we can begin to look back on his career. His one Grand Slam win at the US Open back in 2003 puts him with the elite to have played this sport, but his three losses at Finals in Wimbledon to Roger Federer will be the lasting legacy in my opinion.
He was so close to picking up that Wimbledon title in 2009 as he played a huge match before losing it 16-14 in the final set and he will always be associated with Federer having lost 4 Grand Slam Finals to the Swiss man.
However, the American public will have fond memories of a player that led the Davis Cup success of 2007 and the man who followed the great American players of the past and he remains the last American (male) to win a Grand Slam title.
Personally I am going to miss watching him play and I'll label him as being one of the more interesting players of the last decade. He was unfortunate not to win more than the one Grand Slam, but Roddick achieved plenty in his career and he will be missed on the Tour.
Yesterday I made three picks from Day 4 and was fortunate to see all three come off as winners making the first four days here very successful. I have made five outright picks ahead of the tournament and all five are still in the draw thanks to Angelique Kerber's win over Venus Williams last night.
Today I will play three more matches as I hope to build on the week so far.
Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Ernests Gulbis came back from two sets down to beat Tommy Haas in the First Round, but he has had a couple of days to recover from that and I expect he is going to win this match against Steve Johnson.
Johnson was a winner over fellow American Rajeev Ram in the First Round and he did win a Challenger on the hard courts at Aptos a couple of weeks ago, but losses to the likes of Benjamin Becker and Igor Sijsling during this North American hard court swing do not inspire confidence.
The one real concern is that Gulbis is so up and down with his performances that you don't always know what you are going to get. Two of the last three seasons has seen the Latvian finish with a losing record on the Tour, but he is 14-16 this season and has a real chance to end with a winning record this time around.
However, the hard courts have generally seen Gulbis play his best tennis and he should be too strong in this match as long as he hasn't spent himself emotionally from the match against Haas.
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Brian Baker: The Brian Baker story has taken a detour over the last couple of months since Wimbledon as the American lost five of six matches since playing at SW19 before coming through the First Round against Jan Hajek.
Even the players that Baker has lost to in recent weeks have not exactly been a whose who list from the world of tennis and Janko Tipsarevic is a clear step up from those players.
Tipsy was very close to being knocked out in the First Round, but he was one of a number of players that recovered from a 2-0 deficit in sets to win through in five.
That match will give the Serb a boost while the staggered First Round here at the US Open will have given Tipsarevic enough recovery time ahead of this match.
I believe Tipsarevic will be a little too consistent for Baker in this one and I do expect him to come through in much simpler fashion than he did in the First Round. With the open third section of the Men's draw, the top 10 player will feel he can take advantage and I'll take him to cover the spread at odds against.
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: As we all know, this is potentially Andy Roddick's final match as a professional, but I think he will be a little too experienced for Bernard Tomic and will be able to extend his time a little more.
I don't know how long Roddick has been thinking of retirement, although it is clear from some of his peer's reactions that he had been thinking about it for some time. Now that he has made his decision, Roddick might just feel a little 'free' and I can see him turn back the clock and beat one of the younger generation that will look to fill his void on the Tour.
Tomic will look to grind out the win, but he doesn't have any really big shots, at least not consistently, that will see him blow Roddick off the court. That means the American will get his chances and the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere that he should thrive in.
While the retirement call has surprised people, we have seen American players cause surprises in their final tournaments here at Flushing Meadows. Even though Pete Sampras didn't call his retirement, his last tournament saw win the title here in New York, while Andre Agassi beat Marcos Baghdatis in his final tournament in a memorable match.
This could go four or five, but I am of the belief that Roddick extends his professional career for at least one more match.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 7-3, + 7.32 Units (18 Units Staked)
Roddick has always struck me as the kind of man that wouldn't keep playing on the Tour without being competitive and he said so himself when he admitted he didn't want to just 'exist' week to week.
The immediate reaction to his retirement was one of disappointment as Roddick was one of the characters on the Tour that was not afraid to speak his mind and he was always fun to watch on the court.
But I can understand his frustrations in a season where he is no longer considered a genuine Grand Slam Winner, while he was struggling to even move on in the lesser tournaments. Losses to the likes of Steve Darcis and Jeremy Chardy on the North American hard courts would have strengthened the belief in his mind that the 'time was now' to finish his career.
It will be interesting to see where Roddick will fit in the history of tennis now we can begin to look back on his career. His one Grand Slam win at the US Open back in 2003 puts him with the elite to have played this sport, but his three losses at Finals in Wimbledon to Roger Federer will be the lasting legacy in my opinion.
He was so close to picking up that Wimbledon title in 2009 as he played a huge match before losing it 16-14 in the final set and he will always be associated with Federer having lost 4 Grand Slam Finals to the Swiss man.
However, the American public will have fond memories of a player that led the Davis Cup success of 2007 and the man who followed the great American players of the past and he remains the last American (male) to win a Grand Slam title.
Personally I am going to miss watching him play and I'll label him as being one of the more interesting players of the last decade. He was unfortunate not to win more than the one Grand Slam, but Roddick achieved plenty in his career and he will be missed on the Tour.
Yesterday I made three picks from Day 4 and was fortunate to see all three come off as winners making the first four days here very successful. I have made five outright picks ahead of the tournament and all five are still in the draw thanks to Angelique Kerber's win over Venus Williams last night.
Today I will play three more matches as I hope to build on the week so far.
Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Ernests Gulbis came back from two sets down to beat Tommy Haas in the First Round, but he has had a couple of days to recover from that and I expect he is going to win this match against Steve Johnson.
Johnson was a winner over fellow American Rajeev Ram in the First Round and he did win a Challenger on the hard courts at Aptos a couple of weeks ago, but losses to the likes of Benjamin Becker and Igor Sijsling during this North American hard court swing do not inspire confidence.
The one real concern is that Gulbis is so up and down with his performances that you don't always know what you are going to get. Two of the last three seasons has seen the Latvian finish with a losing record on the Tour, but he is 14-16 this season and has a real chance to end with a winning record this time around.
However, the hard courts have generally seen Gulbis play his best tennis and he should be too strong in this match as long as he hasn't spent himself emotionally from the match against Haas.
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Brian Baker: The Brian Baker story has taken a detour over the last couple of months since Wimbledon as the American lost five of six matches since playing at SW19 before coming through the First Round against Jan Hajek.
Even the players that Baker has lost to in recent weeks have not exactly been a whose who list from the world of tennis and Janko Tipsarevic is a clear step up from those players.
Tipsy was very close to being knocked out in the First Round, but he was one of a number of players that recovered from a 2-0 deficit in sets to win through in five.
That match will give the Serb a boost while the staggered First Round here at the US Open will have given Tipsarevic enough recovery time ahead of this match.
I believe Tipsarevic will be a little too consistent for Baker in this one and I do expect him to come through in much simpler fashion than he did in the First Round. With the open third section of the Men's draw, the top 10 player will feel he can take advantage and I'll take him to cover the spread at odds against.
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: As we all know, this is potentially Andy Roddick's final match as a professional, but I think he will be a little too experienced for Bernard Tomic and will be able to extend his time a little more.
I don't know how long Roddick has been thinking of retirement, although it is clear from some of his peer's reactions that he had been thinking about it for some time. Now that he has made his decision, Roddick might just feel a little 'free' and I can see him turn back the clock and beat one of the younger generation that will look to fill his void on the Tour.
Tomic will look to grind out the win, but he doesn't have any really big shots, at least not consistently, that will see him blow Roddick off the court. That means the American will get his chances and the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere that he should thrive in.
While the retirement call has surprised people, we have seen American players cause surprises in their final tournaments here at Flushing Meadows. Even though Pete Sampras didn't call his retirement, his last tournament saw win the title here in New York, while Andre Agassi beat Marcos Baghdatis in his final tournament in a memorable match.
This could go four or five, but I am of the belief that Roddick extends his professional career for at least one more match.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 7-3, + 7.32 Units (18 Units Staked)
Thursday, 30 August 2012
US Open Day 4 Picks (August 30th)
It has been a really busy day for me at work so I haven't been able to put down my picks any earlier than this.
Unfortunately, that means I won't be able to put down my usual breakdown of the matches and why I have picked the ones I have.
Tomorrow shouldn't be as hectic as today so I will be able to get back to the usual level of these posts.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 10.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-3, + 2.12 Units (13 Units Staked)
Unfortunately, that means I won't be able to put down my usual breakdown of the matches and why I have picked the ones I have.
Tomorrow shouldn't be as hectic as today so I will be able to get back to the usual level of these posts.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 10.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-3, + 2.12 Units (13 Units Staked)
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
US Open Day 3 Picks (August 29th)
It was a much better day yesterday for the picks as three of the four came off as winners and has taken the profit into a positive for the week.
I also enjoyed the fact that all the outright picks I have made have moved through to the Second Round with just David Ferrer to still complete his First Round match. Hopefully they will all still be intact by the end of the days play.
The early rounds have proven to be well priced by the layers as far as I can see so I am sticking with just the two picks again today.
Magdalena Rybarikova - 1.5 games v Jie Zheng: Magdalena Rybarikova is the younger player of the two and she has been in very good form recently to think that she will be capable of knocking off Jie Zheng in this Second Round match.
Rybarikova won the tournament in Washington and then took a couple of weeks off before winning through the qualifiers here in Flushing Meadows. She came through a tough First Round encounter and has already surpassed her achievements last year at the US Open.
Her opponent, Zheng, had lost 4 of her last 5 matches before coming through the First Round thanks to Virginie Razzano's retirement from that match. She has always been a solid competitor on the hard courts so I don't want to under-estimate her in this one, but the form of Rybarikova definitely gives her the edge in my opinion.
Rybarikova also beat Zheng in the Semi Final of a hard court tournament in China last year and has now won both of their previous matches without losing a set so the mental edge should also belong to her in this one.
It might need a decider, but I'll back the Slovakian to come through.
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Lucie Safarova is one of the ball-bashing players on the WTA Tour that you have to catch on the right day if she isn't going to throw one of her really poor performances in.
She reached the Semi Final in Montreal and also the Quarter Final in New Haven, but she cannot afford to take Aleksandra Wozniak lightly considering the Canadian has also been in decent form.
Wozniak was a Quarter Finalist at Montreal and Dallas so has been showing plenty of good form herself.
Both players got through the First Round by handing in at least one bagel, but the key difference could be the fact that Safarova has dominated the last two meetings between the players.
Safarova has the better serve of the two players and should be able to get more 'cheap points' of the two and that means Wozniak will be under the more pressure to keep holding serve. Eventually that should tell and allow Safarova to come away with the win, most likely in straight sets.
MY PICKS: Magdalena Rybarikova - 1.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-2, + 2.28 Units (9 Units Staked)
I also enjoyed the fact that all the outright picks I have made have moved through to the Second Round with just David Ferrer to still complete his First Round match. Hopefully they will all still be intact by the end of the days play.
The early rounds have proven to be well priced by the layers as far as I can see so I am sticking with just the two picks again today.
Magdalena Rybarikova - 1.5 games v Jie Zheng: Magdalena Rybarikova is the younger player of the two and she has been in very good form recently to think that she will be capable of knocking off Jie Zheng in this Second Round match.
Rybarikova won the tournament in Washington and then took a couple of weeks off before winning through the qualifiers here in Flushing Meadows. She came through a tough First Round encounter and has already surpassed her achievements last year at the US Open.
Her opponent, Zheng, had lost 4 of her last 5 matches before coming through the First Round thanks to Virginie Razzano's retirement from that match. She has always been a solid competitor on the hard courts so I don't want to under-estimate her in this one, but the form of Rybarikova definitely gives her the edge in my opinion.
Rybarikova also beat Zheng in the Semi Final of a hard court tournament in China last year and has now won both of their previous matches without losing a set so the mental edge should also belong to her in this one.
It might need a decider, but I'll back the Slovakian to come through.
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Lucie Safarova is one of the ball-bashing players on the WTA Tour that you have to catch on the right day if she isn't going to throw one of her really poor performances in.
She reached the Semi Final in Montreal and also the Quarter Final in New Haven, but she cannot afford to take Aleksandra Wozniak lightly considering the Canadian has also been in decent form.
Wozniak was a Quarter Finalist at Montreal and Dallas so has been showing plenty of good form herself.
Both players got through the First Round by handing in at least one bagel, but the key difference could be the fact that Safarova has dominated the last two meetings between the players.
Safarova has the better serve of the two players and should be able to get more 'cheap points' of the two and that means Wozniak will be under the more pressure to keep holding serve. Eventually that should tell and allow Safarova to come away with the win, most likely in straight sets.
MY PICKS: Magdalena Rybarikova - 1.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-2, + 2.28 Units (9 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
US Open Day 2 Picks (August 28th)
I only had the one pick yesterday and was disappointed that Bobby Reynolds couldn't quite get himself into a perfect position as he gave up a set and a break advantage to fall down 2-1 in sets and eventually was beaten in 5 sets.
Some of the top players made harder work than they needed to in the First Round, but that is to be expected considering it is their first match and the conditions have been rough to say the least.
Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova both moved on to the Second Round to keep all the outright picks alive and today we will see the others join the fray.
Today it should be a clearer day with little chance of a break in play like there was yesterday and the temperature is going to keep going up during the next few days. The wind was playing havoc yesterday with some of the players, but even that should start dying down over the next couple of days and it looks a good day to get on the court.
Teimuraz Gabashvili - 1.5 sets v Rogerio Dutra Da Silva: I really don't like backing bad players, but I am going to take Teimuraz Gabasvili to win this match against an opponent who has not played any hard court tournaments ahead of the US Open, although he did reach the Second Round in Flushing Meadows last season after qualifying for the tournament.
Gabashvili did qualify for the event and he has been attempting to make hay in hard court tournaments over the last month, although he hasn't enjoyed a lot of success.
However, he should have gained some confidence from the three wins he had to get through to the US Open main draw and Rogerio Dutra Da Silva was busy playing in Challenger tournaments on clay courts in Europe, which suggests he could be found wanting here.
I won't go over the minimum unit for this one as I don't have complete faith in Gabashvili either.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Urszula Radwanksa: Roberta Vinci has been having her best season on the hard courts this year and should be full of confidence having won the tournament in Dallas last week, while she has also reached the Quarter Final in Montreal earlier in the month.
Vinci was going along in earlier hard court events at Miami and Indian Wells, but ended up running into the likes of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova while she was also reached the Third Round at the US Open in 2011.
Urszula Radwanska may be overshadowed by her big sister Agnieszka, but she has doubled her wins from last season already and in fact has more wins in 2012 than she has had in the previous two seasons. She was also playing well on the hard courts during this Summer swing, reaching Quarter Finals at Stanford and Carlsbad, but she can still fall short against some of the better and more consistent players on the Tour.
Vinci also leads the head to head 2-0, although their last match was back in 2008 when the Italian beat Radwanska in straight sets here in New York.
There are some question marks about Radwanska's health and all this points to Vinci winning 6-3, 6-4.
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games v Kateryna Bondarenko: Jelena Jankovic is not the force of three or four years ago, but reaching the Final in Dallas last week should have given her some confidence after a poor run of form had seen her lose 4 matches in a row.
Despite her up and down performances, Jankovic has already won 17 matches on the hard courts this season and this is by far and away her favourite surface. However, she had been just 1-6 on the North American hard courts before her performance in Dallas last week and that will be a boost for her mentally and the Serb did reach the Third Round at the US Open last season.
Her opponent Kateryna Bondarenko is a tough player on her day, but Jankovic has won their previous meeting (which didn't end in a retirement) fairly comfortably and the Ukrainian hasn't played too much hard court tennis since March.
The spread will be touch and go, but I think Jankovic can be a little too tough for her today and may just need a break more in each set to ensure she does get the cover.
I'll be looking for a 6-3, 6-4 win for the former World Number 1.
Yaroslava Shvedova - 1.5 games v Vania King: This is one of those rare occasions when doubles partners have to play one another in the singles draw, but that is the case for Yaroslava Shvedova and Vania King in the First Round.
They haven't met in singles before but both players will know all about the other and that makes it a tougher match to call.
However, I think Yaroslava Shvedova has been the more consistent singles player and she has had a couple of really good months on the WTA Tour and that makes her the favourite in this match.
Shvedova will have to cope with the heat having pulled out in Cincinnati from dizziness caused by the weather, but that was two weeks ago and she should be ready.
Vania King did reach the Semi Final at Washington recently and she will have the crowd behind her in this one. She also reached the Third Round here last season so shouldn't be under-estimated, but her recent form has been mixed and her doubles partner did reach the Quarter Final and the Fourth Round at the last two Grand Slams and will likely be too strong again.
The players know each other well so there could be a deciding set to settle the winner, but I think Yaroslava Shvedova holds the edge and should come through.
MY PICKS: Teimuraz Gabashvili - 1.5 sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yaroslava Shvedova - 1.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
US Open Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)
Some of the top players made harder work than they needed to in the First Round, but that is to be expected considering it is their first match and the conditions have been rough to say the least.
Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova both moved on to the Second Round to keep all the outright picks alive and today we will see the others join the fray.
Today it should be a clearer day with little chance of a break in play like there was yesterday and the temperature is going to keep going up during the next few days. The wind was playing havoc yesterday with some of the players, but even that should start dying down over the next couple of days and it looks a good day to get on the court.
Teimuraz Gabashvili - 1.5 sets v Rogerio Dutra Da Silva: I really don't like backing bad players, but I am going to take Teimuraz Gabasvili to win this match against an opponent who has not played any hard court tournaments ahead of the US Open, although he did reach the Second Round in Flushing Meadows last season after qualifying for the tournament.
Gabashvili did qualify for the event and he has been attempting to make hay in hard court tournaments over the last month, although he hasn't enjoyed a lot of success.
However, he should have gained some confidence from the three wins he had to get through to the US Open main draw and Rogerio Dutra Da Silva was busy playing in Challenger tournaments on clay courts in Europe, which suggests he could be found wanting here.
I won't go over the minimum unit for this one as I don't have complete faith in Gabashvili either.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Urszula Radwanksa: Roberta Vinci has been having her best season on the hard courts this year and should be full of confidence having won the tournament in Dallas last week, while she has also reached the Quarter Final in Montreal earlier in the month.
Vinci was going along in earlier hard court events at Miami and Indian Wells, but ended up running into the likes of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova while she was also reached the Third Round at the US Open in 2011.
Urszula Radwanska may be overshadowed by her big sister Agnieszka, but she has doubled her wins from last season already and in fact has more wins in 2012 than she has had in the previous two seasons. She was also playing well on the hard courts during this Summer swing, reaching Quarter Finals at Stanford and Carlsbad, but she can still fall short against some of the better and more consistent players on the Tour.
Vinci also leads the head to head 2-0, although their last match was back in 2008 when the Italian beat Radwanska in straight sets here in New York.
There are some question marks about Radwanska's health and all this points to Vinci winning 6-3, 6-4.
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games v Kateryna Bondarenko: Jelena Jankovic is not the force of three or four years ago, but reaching the Final in Dallas last week should have given her some confidence after a poor run of form had seen her lose 4 matches in a row.
Despite her up and down performances, Jankovic has already won 17 matches on the hard courts this season and this is by far and away her favourite surface. However, she had been just 1-6 on the North American hard courts before her performance in Dallas last week and that will be a boost for her mentally and the Serb did reach the Third Round at the US Open last season.
Her opponent Kateryna Bondarenko is a tough player on her day, but Jankovic has won their previous meeting (which didn't end in a retirement) fairly comfortably and the Ukrainian hasn't played too much hard court tennis since March.
The spread will be touch and go, but I think Jankovic can be a little too tough for her today and may just need a break more in each set to ensure she does get the cover.
I'll be looking for a 6-3, 6-4 win for the former World Number 1.
Yaroslava Shvedova - 1.5 games v Vania King: This is one of those rare occasions when doubles partners have to play one another in the singles draw, but that is the case for Yaroslava Shvedova and Vania King in the First Round.
They haven't met in singles before but both players will know all about the other and that makes it a tougher match to call.
However, I think Yaroslava Shvedova has been the more consistent singles player and she has had a couple of really good months on the WTA Tour and that makes her the favourite in this match.
Shvedova will have to cope with the heat having pulled out in Cincinnati from dizziness caused by the weather, but that was two weeks ago and she should be ready.
Vania King did reach the Semi Final at Washington recently and she will have the crowd behind her in this one. She also reached the Third Round here last season so shouldn't be under-estimated, but her recent form has been mixed and her doubles partner did reach the Quarter Final and the Fourth Round at the last two Grand Slams and will likely be too strong again.
The players know each other well so there could be a deciding set to settle the winner, but I think Yaroslava Shvedova holds the edge and should come through.
MY PICKS: Teimuraz Gabashvili - 1.5 sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yaroslava Shvedova - 1.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
US Open Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)